Pugwash NEWSLETTER
issued by the Council of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs Nobel Peace Prize 1995
Ensuring Security in Space
Volume 40 Number 1 June 2003 T ABLE OF CONTENTS
To the Pugwash Community ...... 1
Statement of the Pugwash Executive Committee on Iraq ...... 3
REPORTS ON RECENT PUGWASH WORKSHOPS
Pugwash Meeting no. 280...... 5 Avoiding an India-Pakistan Nuclear Confrontation Lahore, Pakistan, 12–14 March 2003
Pugwash Meeting no. 281 ...... 12 19th Workshop of the Pugwash Study Group on the Implementation of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Conventions: The Fifth BTWC Review Conference Oeestgeest, Netherlands, 26–27 April 2003
Pugwash Meeting no. 282...... 25 2nd Pugwash Workshop on South Asian Security Geneva, Switzerland, 16–18 May 2003
Pugwash Meeting no. 283...... 33 Pugwash Workshop: Preserving the Non-Weaponisation of Space Castellón de la Plana, Spain, 22–24 May 2003
Pugwash Meeting no. 285...... 40 9th Pugwash Workshop on The Middle East Amman, Jordan, 30 May–2 June 2003
ACTIVITIES OF NATIONAL PUGWASH GROUPS
Pugwash Meeting no. 284...... 47 Pugwash Argentina: Regional Pugwash Workshop on Economic and Social Inequities in Latin America Bariloche, Argentina, 29 May–2 June 2003
INTERNATIONAL STUDENT/YOUNG PUGWASH ...... 53
OBITUARIES: ...... 55 Prince Sadruddin Aga Khan, Thomas Odhiambo, Vsevolod Avduyevsky
Pugwash EDITORIAL ...... 55 A Challenge to the World’s Scientists Volume 40 Number 1 by Kofi Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations June 2003
Editor: Members of the Pugwash Council ...... 59 Jeffrey Boutwell Calendar of Future Meetings ...... Inside back cover Research Assistant: Jennifer Kuo Design and Layout: Anne Read To the Pugwash Community
The Iraq Conflict and Nuclear Weapons region of the world, has been amply demonstrated by the As of mid-June, the war in Iraq has been over for more failings of US military action against Iraq. than two months, far longer than the 21 days needed for Pugwash Workshops American and British troops to cross the border from Kuwait and occupy Baghdad. Yet political stability and A major focus of Pugwash activity in the past six months hopes for a democratic Iraq remain elusive. Saddam Hus- has been that of continued tensions in South Asia, with sein and many of his top advisors remain at large, constant workshops held in Lahore and Geneva that brought guerrilla and terror attacks claim the lives of Iraqi civilians together senior Pakistani and Indian figures to discuss and American and British soldiers, and the search for evi- ways of strengthening political dialogue between the two dence of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons contin- countries and minimizing the risks of conflict and the use ues, with little success thus far. of nuclear weapons. The next workshop in the series will International opposition to the American-led military be held in Goa, India in November 2003. operation against Saddam’s regime has not been quieted In the Middle East, the workshop in Amman, Jordan in by the quick victory on the battlefield. Indeed, the real early June brought together participants from several Arab battle, for stability in post-war Iraq and demonstrable countries, including Saudi Arabia, and Israel to explore progress towards Middle East peace, still hangs in the bal- ways of reinvigorating the Middle East peace process. ance. Without marked improvement in Iraqi domestic sta- Secretary General Paolo Cotta-Ramusino also visited the bility, the Bush administration will be hard put to justify region in January 2003, meeting with various Israeli and the human and economic cost of going to war. Palestinian officials, including Palestinian Authority Presi- Such justification will be even more difficult if no evidence dent Yasir Arafat. Pugwash will expand its involvement in is found that Saddam Hussein posed a credible, imminent the search for Middle East stability with a first-ever work- threat to his neighbors and the world with weapons of shop in Iran, scheduled for Tehran in September 2003. mass destruction, one of the primary rationales used by In May 2003, Pugwash initiated a new program area President Bush for launching the attack. While no one dealing with security in outer space and the need to ensure would dispute Saddam’s desire for such weapons, and his continued international cooperation in utilizing the many willingness to use them, the evidence as of now would benefits provided by space assets for all countries. The suggest that the post-1991 UN inspection and sanctions initial Pugwash workshop held in May in Castellón de la regime had been effective in curtailing an operationally- Plana, Spain (see report on page 33) will be followed by viable Iraqi WMD program. working group sessions at the 53rd Pugwash Conference As articulated in the statement by the Pugwash being held in Halifax (see below) and a follow-on work- Executive Committee on the following pages, unilateral shop in 2004. Pugwash will be working with a wide range measures to halt the spread of nuclear weapons and begin of other non-governmental organizations, national gov- the process of eliminating the nuclear threat must give way ernments, and international organizations to devise strate- to concerted multilateral action by the international com- gies that maximize the wide range of economic, communi- munity. The need for a broad international coalition to cations, educational, and other benefits of civilian space deal with WMD proliferation challenges, in whatever activities, while minimizing the risk that space in the near future might become an arena for heightened military competition.
The 53rd Pugwash Conference From 17–21 July 2003, some 200 participants from around the world will convene in Halifax, Nova Scotia for the 53rd Pugwash Conference: Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics. Hosted by the Canadian Pugwash Group, and with substantial sup- port being provided by Canada’s Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade and the Canadian Interna- tional Development Agency, the conference will also include a one-day excursion to the birthplace of Pugwash, Secretary General Paolo Cotta-Ramusino meets with Canadian Foreign Cyrus Eaton’s Thinkers’ Lodge in Pugwash, Nova Scotia. Minister the Hon. Bill Graham (March 2003). Highlights of the conference will also include a keynote address by the Honorable Susan Whelan, Minister of eign Affairs, with Minister Susan Whelan, and with International Cooperation for the Canadian government, Douglas Roche, Adele Buckley and other members of the and the Dorothy Hodgkin Memorial Lecture, given by Canadian Pugwash Group. Jayantha Dhanapala, until recently the Under Secretary Acknowledgments General for Disarmament Affairs at the United Nations. A full report on the 53rd Pugwash Conference will appear Pugwash is grateful to the following organizations for in the December 2003 issue of the Pugwash Newsletter. their continued support of the Pugwash Newsletter, as As part of the planning process for the Halifax confer- well as other Pugwash publications and the Pugwash web- ence, Paolo Cotta-Ramusino and Jeffrey Boutwell traveled site: the German Research Society, the Italian National to Ottawa in March for meetings with Foreign Minister Research Council, the Cyrus Eaton Foundation, and the Bill Graham and other officials at the Department of For- John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
The Editor
2 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2001 Statement of the Pugwash Executive Committee 20 March 2003 The War on Iraq
espite the lack of a mandate from the UN Secu- effectiveness in finding weapons and in prompting their rity Council, the US and the UK have decided to destruction. More time was needed to assess the net result Dproceed independently to attack Iraq. The Pug- of the inspectors’ work, as Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBa- wash Executive Committee deeply regrets this act of war radei repeated often. An Iraq subject to a possibly much and is very much concerned with its likely consequences. larger number of inspectors would have been a country Our first concern is with the human suffering that the unable to keep, produce and stock weapons of mass war will cause. The civilian population of Iraq will be destruction. directly exposed to the consequences of the war and will The war on Iraq has also been presented to US and likely suffer the most. The destruction of the civilian infra- international public opinion as a preventive war aimed at structure could well be devastating and require expensive stopping terrorism, particularly with weapons of mass rebuilding over many years. destruction. The attack on Iraq has thus been presented as Our second concern is with the weakening role of an issue of US national security, with the implication that international institutions in general and the United an international consensus on the war itself was useful but Nations in particular. If some ultimately not necessary. In Permanent Members of the reality, there is a general con- Security Council decide that, sensus that only fragmentary despite rules already giving evidence exists of a connection them a right to veto, the opinion between international terror- of the majority of the Security ism and the Iraqi regime. So Council need not be respected, the war on Iraq, as part of a then the role and the authority war against terrorism, of the Security Council and of becomes a preventive war to the UN itself becomes dubious deny terrorist groups possible and uncertain. The present dis- future connections with a agreement inside the UNSC, state. In this way, the war on U.S. troops in Iraq. moreover, induces pessimism Department of Defense photo terrorism is transformed into about the concrete possibilities an open-ended framework of an improvement in the architecture of international encompassing a wide range of possible military actions. institutions. This may well foreshadow a higher Accordingly, we are deeply concerned about what this occurrence of unilateral initiatives in the future, with open-ended framework will produce in the future. uncertain consequences. Finally, the war on Iraq has been presented to interna- The war on Iraq has been presented to the Security tional public opinion as a war aimed at regime change, Council as necessary for disarming Iraq and enforcing namely, at eliminating the dictatorship of Saddam Resolution 1441. But the inspectors’ work has shown its Hussein. But regime change has not been discussed per se
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 3 at the UNSC. There is no doubt that Saddam Hussein’s of radical movements and groups that may degrade the removal would be a positive event. But the questions we level of democracy in many countries, as well as a renewed must ask are: which institution should be responsible for source of international terrorism. promoting regime change in specific countries; what are During the Cold War, Pugwash dealt with East-West the criteria for promoting regime change; and how should antagonism by seeking to contribute to dialogue, disarm- these criteria be decided? Finally how should an interna- ament and cooperation. In the same spirit, Pugwash is tional consensus about regime change be expressed? Fail- working, and is prepared to work more, on improving dia- ure to answer these basic questions opens the prospect of a logue, cooperation and understanding between the West- ern and Islamic worlds, as well as on continuing to pro- world dominated more by force and anarchy than by mote disarmament. It is for all these reasons that we very international law. much regret recent developments resulting in the war on On a general political level, we must also emphasize Iraq. that the war on Iraq is widely perceived as an act of West- ern hostility towards the Islamic world. We are very much Pugwash Executive Committee concerned about this perception and are worried about the Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino (Chair), Secretary General relevant consequences that may dramatically strengthen Prof. M.S. Swaminathan, President the wall of antagonism and resentment between the West Prof. Marie Muller, Chair, Pugwash Council and Arab countries and more generally the Islamic world. Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell, Executive Director This resentment may become the source of a further dete- Prof. Saideh Lotfian, Member, Pugwash Council rioration in the international climate, of the strengthening Gen. (ret.) Pan Zhenqiang, Member, Pugwash Council
Written by Nobel-prizewinner and former nuclear physicist Joseph Rotblat, and peace advocate and scholar Robert Hinde, War No More provides unrivalled expert insight into the nature of modern warfare — including ‘weapons of mass destruction’. If war is ever to be eliminated, the pair argue that the United Nations — as well as non-governmental organizations, religious groups, and grassroots movements — all have an important part to play!
Pluto Press August 2003 / 240pp
4 Pugwash Newsletter, JuneDecember 2003 2001 PUGWASH MEETING No. 280
Pugwash Workshop on Avoiding an India-Pakistan Nuclear Confrontation Lahore, Pakistan, 11–12 March 2003
Report level, the United States played a pro- on the belief that a stable nuclear active role in walking both states deterrence is already in place. The by Samina Ahmed back from the brink of war. Although discussion on deterrence stability the withdrawal of troops from offen- focused on India and Pakistan’s he workshop’s primary objec- sive positions has reduced the nuclear doctrines and controls, cover- tive was to assess the threat prospects of imminent conflict, India ing, among other issues, the advan- Tof an India-Pakistan nuclear and Pakistan’s cold war continues tages of doctrinal transparency versus confrontation and to identify ways of unabated. India refuses to resume a opacity and first use over no-first use preventing such a conflict. The work- dialogue with Pakistan until it takes postures. shop’s deliberations and discussions decisive steps to end all “cross border Nuclear optimists supported reflected a range of mainly Pakistani infiltration” into Indian Kashmir. opacity on the grounds that declared perceptions on the potential of an Insisting on the centrality of the thresholds and redlines undermine India-Pakistan conventional conflict Kashmir dispute for the resolution of operational flexibility and increase and possible nuclear escalation. India India-Pakistan tensions, Pakistan nuclear risks during crises. and Pakistan’s nuclear doctrines and continues to support the anti-Indian Proponents of opacity also argued directions were analyzed with the insurgency in Kashmir. In the absence that transparency only works in the objective of identifying ways of mini- of high-level and institutionalized absence of conflict and with at least a mizing nuclear risks. Finally, the contacts between India and Pakistan, semblance of communications workshop examined options of the risk of a conventional conflict between nuclear adversaries. Absent resuming a dialogue between the two remains high. While the potential for these preconditions, as in the case of nuclear-armed neighbors. conflict escalation to the nuclear level India and Pakistan, transparency can The workshop was attended by might appear low, the very fact that it be counterproductive. In any case, 32 participants from five countries. cannot be ruled out underscores the nuclear doctrines are often mislead- Pugwash expresses its thanks to the importance of minimizing nuclear ing and at variance with operational Pakistan Pugwash Group for hosting risks. Clearly, the resumption of an plans. By keeping deterrence vague the meeting, and to Ambassador Aziz India-Pakistan dialogue is the first and by avoiding explication of red Ahmad Khan of the Foreign Ministry step towards crisis de-escalation. lines, Pakistan can also avoid a of Pakistan for facilitating many of nuclear arms race with India and the logistics of the meeting. Nuclear doctrines and keep its weapons un-deployed. This deterrence stability nuclear restraint, reflected in Avoiding a Pakistan-India There was near unanimity among Pakistan’s policy of minimum nuclear nuclear confrontation participants that tensions between deterrence, has helped to buttress From December 2001 until July India and Pakistan are at their high- nuclear crisis stability in South Asia. 2002, Indian and Pakistani forces est since their last war in 1971. How- However, the impact of bilateral confronted each other across the ever, many believed that the current tensions and suspicions on India and international border and along the diplomatic standoff, defined by one Pakistan’s nuclear directions were Line of Control. Concerned about participant as a mutually assured evident in the discussion on nuclear the potential for a conventional con- deadlock, would not result in armed and conventional force structures. flict that could escalate to the nuclear conflict. This confidence was based While one participant pointed out the
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 5 Pugwash Meeting No. 280 links between India’s conventional declared nuclear doctrine, implied credible the threat of nuclear use. In spending and Pakistan’s nuclear one participant, since Pakistan mili- 2002, war was prevented and India directions, others believed that a tary circles believed that nuclear forced to withdraw its troops from nuclear triad in India would force weapons were indeed instruments of offensive positions along the interna- Pakistan to follow suit. Disputing the war fighting, to be used against high tional border and the Line of Control argument made by a participant that value targets during the course of in Kashmir because of Pakistan’s economic constraints would prevent conflict. A nuclear proponent who coercive nuclear diplomacy. Another Pakistani arms racing, others stressed made the argument that Pakistan’s participant added that the 2002 cri- that a nuclear arms race already nuclear doctrine did not rule out pre- sis, the most severe between the two exists. The Chinese factor would also emption in the event of even a con- states since the 1971 war, was pre- make it near impossible for India and ventional attack on its territory inad- vented because of four factors: Pak- Pakistan to reach an agreement on vertently supported this thesis. istan’s nuclear weapons capability; what would constitute a minimum international pressure on both India nuclear deterrent. Conventional confrontation and and Pakistan; Pakistani restraint; and In fact, Pakistan’s emphasis on possible nuclear escalation India’s successful coercive diplomacy opacity and its rejection of a no-first Since India and Pakistan’s cold peace that forced President Musharraf to use doctrine reflects its concerns threatens to deteriorate into a hot ban a number of militant groups about conventional inferiority vis-à- war, it is important to assess the operating across the Line of Control. vis India. Nuclear opacity and potential of a conventional conflict Dismissing the proposition that nuclear weapons capability are escalating to the nuclear level. Four Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent had regarded as means of deterring con- major crises have occurred since prevented India from escalating the ventional war. Senior officials have India and Pakistan acquired nuclear 2002 crisis, and linking crisis de- implied that Pakistan could resort to weapons capability. These recurrent escalation instead to Indian restraint, nuclear use in the event of an Indian crises show, said one participant, that another participant warned that attack, conventional or nuclear, on its the assumptions on which nuclear enhanced Indian legitimacy in Jammu territory. However, Pakistan refuses deterrence is based in South Asia lack and Kashmir following the 2002 to officially define its nuclear thresh- substance; that both sides have state elections, a buoyant economy, old even as it rejects nuclear first use. repeatedly resorted to irresponsible and the BJP government’s aggressive While a nuclear no-first-use policy nuclear brinkmanship; and, depend- mindset could collectively tempt was a luxury for Pakistan, a partici- ing on external actors, mainly the India to up the ante for Pakistan. pant pointed out, India would likely United States to pull them back from Concerns were also voiced that reverse its no-first-use posture during the nuclear brink, Indian and Pak- the post-11 September international a military conflict. In any case, India istani leaders have been desensitized environment has adversely affected has already revised that policy to by these multiple crises to the dangers nuclear deterrence in South Asia, cover other unconventional attacks of future conflict. Moreover, in Pak- both in terms of the evolution of ter- by weapons of mass destruction on istan’s case, the utility of nuclear rorism and the ways in which India Indian troops within or outside weapons goes further than deterrence reacts and mobilizes its forces. Indian territory. since nuclear weapons capability is Regardless of divergent assessments Critics of opacity warned that used to advance Pakistan’s strategic of nuclear deterrence stability, there deterrence stability would elude goals in Kashmir. was consensus that India-Pakistan South Asia in the absence of greater Countering these arguments, crises could keep on recurring doctrinal transparency and clarity. A other participants argued that the because of the linkage between politi- participant stressed that transparency manner in which earlier crises were cal disputes and military strategies. is an important element of predict- successfully contained is proof of the Divergent Indian and Pakistani poli- ability. It is therefore an inherent ele- relative stability of nuclear deterrence cies towards Kashmir and attempts ment of policy if the primary objec- in South Asia. The 1990 crisis, for to challenge the status quo increase tive of nuclear weapons capability is instance, was resolved because Pak- the risk of war. Nuclear capability is to deter conflict. Pakistan shunned a istan conveyed and India accepted as here to stay in South Asia, said a
6 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 280 participant, but it is embedded in from non-intrusive measures such as exchanges to understand the gravity and must be detached from India transfers of security technologies of these issues. and Pakistan’s political relationship. through turn-key kits, as in the case Some participants defended the If Pakistan continues with its efforts of the US-Russian relationship. US robustness of Pakistani command to compel India to negotiate on supplied kits are installed by Russia, and control. Since a National Com- Kashmir through sub-conventional eliminating the need for physical mand and Control authority was well warfare, increasing costs might com- intrusion by the US government, in place, they argued, the dangers of pel India to respond militarily. Indian companies and experts. Some accidental, unauthorized, or inadver- and Pakistani attitudes towards exchanges of best safeguard practices tent use were minimal. However, nuclear weapons are maturing, noted are already underway with the US. even nuclear optimists admitted that another, but they don’t have the lux- These include track two activities false warning and panic launchings ury of a long maturation process to such as visits to US facilities like the could pose a threat, particularly at ensure that nuclear weapons are never Cooperative Monitoring Center at time of crises. Deterrence stability used. A more optimistic participant Sandia National Laboratories. will be ensured, said a participant, if believed that nuclear weapons capa- Given Pakistan and India’s opaque both sides are reasonably sure that bilities might have made conflict res- nuclear weapons programs and their their nuclear assets are survivable; if olution more difficult, but nuclear status as non-nuclear weapons states they do not use them as instruments deterrence has facilitated conflict within the NPT regime, not surpris- of coercion; and if they do not panic prevention. ingly the discussion on cooperative in case of a false alarm. The impor- approaches to threat reduction tance of non-deployment, knowledge Nuclear risks and risk reduction included concerns about US inten- of mutual capabilities and effective Indian and Pakistani officials have tions as well as opposition to physical signaling of intentions, particularly repeatedly assured the international intrusion. The US-Russian loose during crises, were added to this list community that their nuclear assets nukes initiative aims at securing of nuclear ‘dos’. Others, however, are not threatened because of secure Russia’s nuclear assets, said a parti- warned that poor intelligence and command and control systems and cipant. Pakistan is not recognized as weak, insecure command and control foolproof safeguards of fissile materi- a nuclear weapons state and would structures and centralized command als and warheads. While many par- therefore oppose such intrusive US increased pressures for dispersal and ticipants expressed concerns about involvement. Other participants delegation to commanders in the accidental or inadvertent use, they pointed out that Pakistani stockpiles field, and hence heightened risks of also believed that existing nuclear of enriched fissile material were too unauthorized or inadvertent use. While safeguards and Material Protection small to warrant such cooperation there was unanimity about the impor- Control and Accounting (MPC and with the US, which was thus far lim- tance of good intelligence to prevent A) could adequately protect India ited to best practices. Insider threats war by miscalculation, a participant and Pakistan’s nuclear assets. Hence, and the diversion of nuclear materials advocated a technical dialogue they resisted suggestions that were also discounted on the grounds between India and Pakistan warning Pakistan and India adopt a broader, of adequate safeguards and security. about the poor quality of intelligence. cooperative approach to threat Participants were reminded that Linkages between nuclear risks reduction. Apart from cooperation in insider threats must be taken seriously and informed nuclear decisionmak- best practices, these suggestions by all nuclear-capable states. The ing were also explored. It is intellec- included a bilateral India-Pakistan value of lessons learnt from outside tual arrogance, said a participant, to dialogue on nuclear risk reduction; one’s own experience and the benefits assume that military and intelligence utilizing IAEA practices in civilian of cooperation in safeguarding stock- services fully comprehend the dynam- facilities under full-scope safeguards piles and warheads were also reiter- ics of crisis escalation. Nuclear and transferring that knowledge to ated. Defense officials, said a partici- adventurism would be forestalled if military installations; learning from pant, don’t always have all the the political leadership and the public precedents, particularly in the answers and hence the importance of fully comprehended the implications Russian-US context; and benefiting high-level political and military of nuclear war. In both India and
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 7 Pugwash Meeting No. 280
Pakistan, the public is poorly response to a comment that a South dialogue with Pakistan until all Pak- informed and political leaders are ill Asian nuclear rollback was not in the istani-sponsored cross-border mili- advised by the bureaucracies that cards. An alternative proposal to the tancy ceases, Pakistan rejects Indian control the nuclear weapons estab- NPT regime was presented. Under allegations as cynical attempts to lishment. Apart from the need of the aegis of the UN Security Council, exploit international concerns about greater public understanding of all nuclear weapons states would terrorism in the post-11 September nuclear risks, governments must commit themselves to a time-bound international environment. refrain from using the nuclear card to The extent to which the bilateral gain domestic legitimacy and to jus- relationship is marred by mutual mis- tify defense and foreign policy direc- trust, suspicion, and hostility is evi- tions. Leaders must understand the dent in the ways in which some par- importance of preventing misunder- ticipants viewed Indian policies standings that could result in nuclear towards Pakistan. Reading India’s escalation during crises and ensure refusal to resume a diplomatic dia- that avenues of communication are logue as the continuation of conflict kept open. There is also a need for a through political and psychological rigorous policy debate between the India-Pakistan border ceremony. means, a participant said that the BJP civil and military leadership on government’s objectives were to means of bolstering crisis stability. In process of nuclear disarmament; non- undermine the Pakistani economy; to Pakistan, said a participant, civilian nuclear states would not be permitted force Pakistan to accept Indian hege- leaders have thus far, despite official to acquire nuclear weapons; failure mony; and to gain and consolidate its claims, been largely excluded from to comply would result in inspec- control over Kashmir. Other partici- nuclear decision making by a military tions; and a failure to comply would pants believed that India had already establishment that controls the coun- be countered by UN Security Council successfully pressured Pakistan to try’s nuclear assets. Above all, Indian authorized use of force. make concessions, referring to Presi- and Pakistani officials must rethink dent Musharraf’s ban on several the premise that there is little risk of Resuming an India-Pakistan extremist organizations, as a result crisis escalation since past conven- dialogue of military coercion and diplomatic tional crises have been effectively The rapidly deteriorating relationship pressure. The dangers of an Indian contained. In the absence of doctrinal between India and Pakistan under- pre-emptive strike against Pakistan transparency, it would take just one scores the importance of a resumed were also raised (author’s note: soon misunderstanding for a future crisis dialogue but neither state appears after the Iraq war began on 19 to spin irrevocably out of control. willing to compromise. Pakistan con- March 2003, India’s Foreign Minister India and Pakistan were warned tinues to insist on the centrality of the Yashwant Sinha said that India had that their nuclear weapons do not Kashmir dispute for the resolution of a better case to initiate a pre-emptive ensure security since they have little India-Pakistan tensions and is equally strike against Pakistan than the grounds for confidence in their first adamant in its support for anti- United States had against Iraq). strike capability; they were reminded Indian Kashmiri groups, although it Although most participants of the nuclear risks that the United insists that its support is limited to agreed that India and Pakistan would States and the Soviet Union con- political and diplomatic measures. stand to gain from a resumed dia- fronted during the height of the Cold Equally insistent that Kashmir’s logue, not least because it would min- War, and that the US and Russia still inclusion in the Indian Union is legiti- imize the risks of conflict, the Kash- face such risks despite technologically mate, and amply demonstrated by mir issue was perceived as the most superior nuclear risk reduction mech- Kashmiri participation in Jammu and serious challenge to the normaliza- anisms and procedures. The impor- Kashmir’s 2002 state elections, India tion of relations. The issue, said a tance of pursuing the goal of nuclear accuses Pakistan of supporting cross- participant, was not one of initiating disarmament through Article VI of border terrorism in the disputed terri- a dialogue but of strategic change, the NPT was also emphasized in tory. While India refuses to resume a which India translates into an end to
8 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 280 militancy within Kashmir and Pak- accuse each other or else negotiations • Revival of trade and commerce; istan construes as Indian willingness are bound to fail; and a possible • Adoption of a composite agenda, to enter into negotiations on the fourth don’t: don’t leave negotiations based on the Lahore/and or Agra Kashmir dispute. If only procedural to military or civil bureaucrats. High- summits, that would include the talks were held, then the process lighting the role of spoilers, another Kashmir dispute and nuclear risk would prove as unproductive as prior participant warned that the military- reduction measures; dialogues such as Lahore (1999) and industrial complex in both India and • Resumption of political to political Agra (2001). While some participants Pakistan had a vested interest in con- contacts; believed that India was exploiting the flict and would thus oppose the nor- • Ceasefire and monitoring of the issue of cross border terrorism to malization of relations. Line of Control; avoid negotiations, others warned of the political, diplomatic, and military Concluding thoughts • Pakistan’s adherence to its public pledges of providing only political costs for Pakistan if it failed to rethink While differences were voiced over support to Kashmiris and an end of its priorities in Kashmir. India, said a an agenda that would reflect the support for militancy; participant, was not only more opti- Lahore or the Agra processes, there mistic about containing the militancy was general agreement on the need • Indian reduction of military forces and acceptance of human rights within Kashmir through political and for quiet, low profile official talks monitors within Kashmir. military means but was also the bene- and for sufficient groundwork to pre- ficiary of international support, while cede a high level summit. However, a As expected, the greatest divergence Pakistan was increasingly isolated. dissenting voice warned that only of views concerned measures and The international community, summit level talks between the politi- mechanisms regarding the Kashmir warned another participant, will not cal leadership would neutralize spoil- issue. There were differences on countenance militants who target ers who, given the opportunity, mechanisms for monitoring the civilians. Pakistan should thus restrict would try to derail the process. There Ceasefire Line (from Pakistan’s inter- its support to Kashmiri political was also consensus that multi-tiered national to India’s bilateral approach) forces, best placed to mobilize the processes would prove most and of blame (India’s emphasis on Kashmiri people and to assert politi- constructive, including track two Pakistani-sponsored cross-border ter- cal pressure on India. activities, a government-to-govern- rorism and Pakistan’s on India’s The change in government in ment dialogue and the use of multi- forcible occupation of Jammu and Islamabad was seen as both a con- lateral regional forums such as the Kashmir). These are only some of the straint and an opportunity to the South Asian Association of Regional hurdles that hinder the resumption of resumption of an India-Pakistan dia- Cooperation (SAARC). A number of an India-Pakistan dialogue and a sus- logue: a hindrance because of Indian participants believed that influential tainable peace. Advocating a middle aversion to continued military domi- international actors, in particular the path, some participants emphasized nance in Pakistan and an opportunity United States but also Russia and the need for reciprocity, asking Indian because it was at the very least a China, could play a meaningful role, reciprocity for Pakistan’s steps, no political opening. Despite some skep- not necessarily as mediators but as matter how limited, in curbing cross- ticism about the utility of an official facilitators. border incursions, and Pakistani reci- as opposed to a people-to-people A wish list of useful initiatives procity to India’s troop demobiliza- approach, a number of concrete mea- included the following: tion and removal of restrictions on sures and mechanisms were identified the use of airspace. A failure to com- • Restoration of normal diplomatic to facilitate conditions for the promise, they warned, would only links at the level of High Commis- resumption of official talks and to result in tactical gains but strategic sioner; ensure their success. Three ‘don’ts’ losses for both states. Undoubtedly, were identified: don’t wait for the • Resumed communications links, the stakes will remain unbearably ideal time to engage since that would including rail, road and air links; high so long as there is a risk of an only benefit spoilers; don’t set pre- • Implementation of existing Confi- armed conflict between the two conditions for negotiations; don’t dence Building Measures; nuclear-capable adversaries.
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 9 Pugwash Meeting No. 280
Participants
[formerly: Associate Executive Officer, Mr. Ejaz Haider, Foreign/Op-Ed Editor, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, The Daily Times, Lahore, Pakistan ; Cambridge; Staff Aide, National Security News Editor, The Friday Times Council, Washington, DC] [formerly : Visiting Fellow, Foreign Pol- icy Studies, The Brookings Institution Prof. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, President, (Nov 2002-March 2003); Ford Scholar, Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Pak- Program in Arms Control, Disarmament istan [formerly: Iqbal Professorial Fellow, and International Security (ACDIS), Univ. South Asia Institute, Heidelberg Univer- Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (1997] sity, Germany (1996-2000); Director Alexander Nikitin (Russia), Robert General, Academy of Educational Plan- Mr. Mubashir Hasan, former Minister of McNamara (United States), ning and Management, Ministry of Edu- Finance, Government of Pakistan; former and Abdul Sattar (Pakistan). cation, Government of Pakistan, Islam- Professor of Civil Engineering, University abad (1995-96); Professor and Chairman, of Engineering and Technology, Lahore Department of International Relations, Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Member, Pug- Lt.-Gen. Nishat Ahmad, Member, Advi- Quaid-I-Azam University, Islamabad] wash Council; Professor, Department of sory Council on Security & Foreign Pol- Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- Physics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islam- icy to the Government of Pakistan [for- General, Pugwash Conferences on Sci- abad, Pakistan merly: Commandant, National Defence ence and World Affairs; Professor of College, Islamabad; President, Institute of Gen. (ret) Jehangir Karamat, former Mathematical Physics, University of Regional Studies, Islamabad] Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff and Chief Milan, Italy; Secretary General, Union of of Army Staff, Pakistan. Office: IPRI, Dr. Samina Ahmed, Project Director Italian Scientists for Disarmament Islamabad, Pakistan, Afghanistan/South Asia, International (USPID); Director, Program on Disarma- Crisis Group (ICG), Islamabad, Pakistan ment and International Security, Landau Amb. Aziz Ahmad Khan, Additional Sec- [formerly: Research Fellow, Belfer Center Network – Centro Volta, Como, Italy retary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Islam- for Science and International Affairs, abad, Pakistan Lt. Gen. (ret) Asad Durrani, recently John F. Kennedy School of Government, Ambassador of Pakistan to Saudi Arabia Harvard University; Senior Research Dr. Shaukat Hameed Khan, Director [formerly: Director General, Inter-Ser- Analyst, Institute of Regional Studies, General (O & C), Pakistan Atomic vices Intelligence (ISI); Commandant, Islamabad] Energy Commission, Islamabad National Defence College; Ambassador Group Captain Khalid Banuri, Deputy to Germany] Lieutenant Colonel Tahir Masood, Strate- Director, Arms Control & Disarmament gic Plans Division, Chaklala, Rawalpindi, Gen. (ret.) Mahmud Durrani, Council Affairs (ACDA), Strategic Plans Division, Pakistan Member, IISS, London, UK [formerly: Joint Staff Headquarters, Chaklala Chairman and Chief Executive, Pakistan Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Talat Masood, Indepen- Cantt., Rawalpindi, Pakistan; Visiting Ordinance Facotries Board; Commander dent Columnist, Commentator and Ana- Faculty, Defence & Strategic Studies of an Armoured Division; Military Secre- lyst, Islamabad, Pakistan [formerly: Department, Quaid-e-Azam University, tary to a President of Pakistan; Pakistan’s retired Lt. General; Secretary, Defence Islamabad Military Attaché in Washington, DC] Production Division, Ministry of Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, Chairman, Foun- Defence; Chairman, Pakistan Ordnance Dr. Rose Gottemoeller, Senior Associate, dation for Research on International Factories Board; various command, staff Carnegie Endowment for International Environment, National Development and and instructional appointments in the Peace, Washington, DC, USA [formerly: Security (FRIENDS), Rawalpindi Cantt., armed forces] Assistant Secretary of Energy for Non- Pakistan [formerly: Chief of Army Staff, proliferation and National Security, Mr. Robert S. McNamara, former U.S. Pakistan] Deputy Undersecretary of Energy for Secretary of Defense; former President of Mr. Farhan Bokhari, Pakistan Correspon- Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation; the World Bank; former President, Ford dent, Financial Times, Rawalpindi Deputy Director, International Institute Motor Company (Cantt), Pakistan for Strategic Studies, London; Director, Prof. Abdul Nayyar, Sustainable Devel- National Security Council for Russia, opment Policy Institute, Islamabad, Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell, Executive Director, Ukraine, Eurasia, The White House; Pakistan; on leave from the Physics Pugwash Conferences on Science and Senior Researcher, RAND Corporation] World Affairs, Washington, DC, USA Department, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad
10 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 280
Participants Working Papers
Dr. Alexander Nikitin, Director, Center Affairs, Columbia University, New York Asad Durrani, “ Doctrinal Doublespeak” for Political and International Studies (Dec. 1995-July 1999)] NRDC: The Consequences of Nuclear (CPIS), Moscow, Russia; Deputy Chair, Brig. Naeem Salik, Director, Arms Con- Conflict between India and Pakistan: Russian Pugwash Committee of Scientists trol & Disarmament Affairs, Strategic NRDCs nuclear experts think about the for Disarmament and International Secu- Plans Division, Joint Staff Headquarters, unthinkable, using state-of-the-art rity; Vice-President of the Russian Politi- Rawalpindi, Pakistan; Visiting Professor, nuclear war simulation software to assess cal Science Association; Professor, Defence & Strategic Studies Department, the crisis in South Asia (Natural Moscow State Institute of International Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad Resources Defense Council website) Relations; Member, Pugwash Council Hon. Abdul Sattar, Member, Sub-Com- Rodney W Jones, “Is stable nuclear deter- Dr. Haider Nizamani, Global Security mission on Promotion and Protection of rence feasible?”, The Friday Times, Feb. and Cooperation Fellow of the Social Human Rights, Palais des Nations, 22-28, 2002, p. 6, vol. XIII. No. 52 Science Research Council, Sustainable Geneva [former Foreign Minister of Pak- Development Policy Institute (Islamabad, istan, Islamabad] Lt. Gen. (ret) Talat Masood, “ The Indo- Pakistan), and Institute of International Pakistan Impasse” Relations, University of British Columbia Mr. Najmuddin Shaikh, retired Pakistan (Vancouver, BC, Canada) [formerly: Post- Foreign Service Officer, Karachi; Member Laxminarayan Ramdas, “India-Pakistan doctoral Fellow, Centre for Nonprolifera- of the Board of Governors, Institute of Dialogue: A Possible Way Ahead” tion Studies, Monterey Institute of Inter- International Affairs, Islamabad Ejaz Haider, “Stable deterrence and national Studies, California; Research [formerly: Foreign Secretary to the Gov- flawed Pakistani nuclear strategy”, The Fellow, Institute of Strategic Studies, ernment of Pakistan (1994-97); Ambas- Friday Times, p. 7, February 8-14 2002, Islamabad] sador of Pakistan to Iran (1992-94), the no. 50 USA (1990-91), the FRG )1989-90) and Ms. Arifa Noor, Assistant Editor, Daily Canada (1987-89)] Alexander Nikitin, “Ten Commandments Times, Lahore, Pakistan [formerly: Assis- Originating from 50 Years of Russian- tant Editor, The News on Sunday] Dr. Abdul Hameed Toor, Assistant Pro- American Nuclear History - to Pakistani fessor of Physics, Quaid-i-Azam Univer- Brigadier Qasim Qureshi, Strategic Plans and Indian Nuclear Planners” sity, Islamabad, Pakistan Division, Joint Staff Headquarters, Rose Gottemoeller, “On exchanges of Rawalpindi, Pakistan PUGWASH STAFF best practices in the nuclear security arena” Adm. Laxminarayan Ramdas, Chair, Claudia Vaughn, Pugwash Conferences, Pakistan-India Peoples Forum for Peace via della Lungara 10, I-00165 Rome, Prof. Hassan Askari Rizvi and Rajesh M. & Democracy, Maharashtra, India [for- Italy, Tel. (++39-06) 687-2606, Fax: Basrur, Nuclear Terrorism And South merly: Chief of the Naval Staff, India (++39-06) 687-8376, Mobile: (++39-333) Asia, Occasional Paper No. 25, (1990-93)] 456-6661, E-mail: [email protected] Albuquerque, NM: Sandia National Mr. Abbas Rashid, Coordinator, Society Laboratories, February 2003, pp.79 for the Advancement of Education, Farhatullah Babar, “A Perspective on Lahore, Pakistan; Columnist, Daily Reducing Tension between India and Times, Lahore [formerly: Instructor in Pakistan” International Relations, Civil Services Academy (Federal Government); Con- Mirza Aslam Beg, “India-Pakistan Stand- tributing Editor, The Muslim (national off and Stability of Nuclear Deterrence” daily newspaper); Acting Editor, The Frontier Post (National daily newspaper)] Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, “Resuming India- Pakistan Dialogue” Prof. Dr. Hasan-Askari Rizvi, Political and Defense Consultant, Lahore, Pak- A.H. Nayyar and Zia Mian, “Pakistan istan [formerly: Member, Faculty of Polit- and First Use of Nuclear Weapons” ical Science, Punjab Univesity, Lahore Haider K. Nizamani, “Whose Bomb Is It (1971-2001), including Professor of Polit- Anyway?” ical Science (1990-2001); Quaid-i-Azam Distinguished Professor-Pakistan Chair, Ejaz Haider, “Deterrence Stability” School of International and Public
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 11 PUGWASH MEETING No. 281
19th Workshop of the Pugwash Study Group on the Implementation of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Conventions: The First CWC Review Conference and Beyond Oegstgeest, The Netherlands, 26–27 April 2003
Report The meeting opened with a wel- workshop were emergent threats to come from the Netherlands Pugwash the CWC, including unscheduled by Fiona Tregonning Group and the observation that this chemicals, ‘non-lethal warfare’ and workshop had attracted the largest allegations of non-compliance, as his the nineteenth of the cur- number of papers yet (27, by the end well as key basic elements of the rent Pugwash workshop of the weekend) for the workshop to CWC and their implementation, Tseries on chemical and bio- consider. It was observed that, ten namely the general purpose criterion logical warfare (CBW) was the tenth years after the Study Group had (GPC) and domestic penal legislation. to be held in the Netherlands. The started meeting in the Netherlands, In looking at the way ahead for the workshop was hosted by the Nether- the work of the Group continues to CWC, the workshop discussed topics lands Pugwash Group, with support be highly relevant – its focus is on the relating to industry and trade, states from the Netherlands government implementation of the CBW Conven- not yet parties and the problem of and from the German corporation tions, and as such is open-ended, ‘law enforcement’. Blücher GmbH, and was jointly con- with a continuing need for the atten- vened by the Harvard Sussex Program tion and interest of the Study Group. CWC: Recent developments in the on CBW Armament and Arms Limi- This was the third time that the OPCW, including the First CWC tation (HSP) and the international First Chemical Weapons Convention Review Pugwash Study Group on Implemen- Review Conference (the Review Con- Given the proximity of the Review tation of the Chemical and Biological ference) had been the main item on Conference, the primary matter on Weapons Conventions. Forty-six an agenda for the Study Group, with which the workshop was updated in people attended the workshop, by the Review Conference due to open relation to the OPCW was the status invitation and in their personal capa- in The Hague on Monday 28 April, of preparations for the Review Con- cities, from 20 countries: Australia, the day following the closing of the ference and the work that had been Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, workshop. Under the main heading carried out at the OPCW by the France, Georgia, Germany, India, of The First CWC Review Confer- Open-Ended Working Group for the Iran, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, ence and Beyond, the workshop Preparations for the Review Confer- New Zealand, Poland, Republic of received a report on recent develop- ence (the Working Group). Other Korea, Russia, South Africa, Switzer- ments at the OPCW and a short items touched upon included: the land, the United Kingdom (UK), and update on international criminaliza- impact of the new Director-General the United States of America (US). This tion, with the group unfortunately of the OPCW; the tenure policy of the report of the workshop is the sole not able because of the unexpected OPCW; the status of chemical responsibility of its author, who was absence of a participant to receive a weapons destruction; the role of the asked by the meeting to prepare a report on the aftermath of the Fifth OPCW in combating chemical terror- report in consultation with the Steer- BWC Review Conference. In review- ism; the work of the Scientific Advi- ing Committee. It does not necessar- ing the first five years of the Chemi- sory Board (SAB); and the new fifth ily reflect a consensus of the workshop cal Weapons Convention (the CWC), possessor state party. as a whole, or of the Study Group. the main items for discussion at the In respect of preparations for the
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Review Conference, the Open-Ended ing of the concept of Assistance and other hand, others viewed the Review Working Group established in Sep- Protection; under Article XI, the Aus- Conference as having received com- tember 2001 initially addressed tralia Group’s impact on trade and paratively little attention because, in organisational issues, including: the role, size, budget and evaluation contrast to the BWC for example, the whether the review of the CWC of international co-operation and CWC was seen as operating relatively should take an article-by-article or assistance programmes; the submis- well. A variation on this was the thematic/cluster approach; the iden- sion of declarations in electronic for- comment that arms control regimes tity of the officers of the Review Con- mat; and the functioning of the pol- in general were under considerable ference; and the need for a drafting icy-making organs of the OPCW, as strain today (for example, the NPT committee. Only in late October well as the interaction with and BWC), and that by contrast, 2002 did the Working Group address subsidiary bodies such as the SAB. what the CWC Review Conference substantive issues, using a cluster The fact that the Provisional could hope to achieve was not incon- approach. The meetings resulted in Agenda was not adopted by the sequential. the drafting of two Chairman’s texts, Executive Council until only a month On other matters relating to the beginning in January 2003, intended before the Review Conference, and OPCW, in the ten months since the to be the base for discussions and that the Director-General’s reports last workshop in the Netherlands, a drafting of Final Documents at the were issued only shortly before the new Director-General of the OPCW, Review Conference. The first text Review Conference, was deplored. Rogelio Pfirter of Argentina, had was a draft Political Declaration, a This impacted negatively on the abil- been appointed (see the reports of the short statement of commitment and ity of NGOs and academics to con- 17th and 18th workshops of this purpose aimed at a non-specialist tribute to the Review Conference, in Study Group). His priority task has audience. The second ‘Consolidated the absence of such information. The been to heal political wounds in rela- Text’ was a longer paper reflecting on Provisional Agenda had effectively tion to the manner of the Secretariat’s five years of experience and contain- been ready and available to states interaction with member states. ing general, rather than specific, rec- parties in December 2002, but agree- The OPCW has seen an improve- ommendations. ment within the Executive Council ment in its financial situation for The workshop heard an outline of was not forthcoming on the issues of 2003, with the Organisation able to the major issues that arose in relation the drafting committee and identity carry out its programme of work in to items on the Provisional Agenda of the officers. While 2002 was pre- full this year. However, it was for the Review Conference and the occupied with issues surrounding the estimated that at least a seven per Chairman’s Consolidated Text. replacement of the first Director-Gen- cent increase would be needed in next Those issues included: how to eral and the 2003 budget, states par- year’s budget to keep pace with costs. address the non-membership of cer- ties had not truly engaged in substan- Such an increase may not be viable, tain countries of the OPCW; the need tive preparation for the Review and it was considered that it may be for universality and effective national Conference until January 2003, with necessary to address the staffing implementation of the CWC; the only approximately 25 states parties structure of the OPCW. comprehensiveness of the CWC pro- actively being involved in the work of At the last session of the Confer- hibitions and the role of the Sched- the Working Group. Less than 20 ence of the States Parties, a more con- ules to the CWC; optimization of ver- states parties were expected to be structive debate on Russian deadlines ification activities; the timelines for represented at the Review Conference for destruction of chemical weapons destruction of chemical weapons and at the level of Deputy Minister or was possible, as a result of evident the need for support of destruction higher. In essence, there seemed to be progress in Russian destruction. At programmes; proposals for ‘nil decla- agreement amongst the workshop the Executive Council session in rations’; the need for the OPCW to that there had not been sufficient March this year, a new deadline of 31 be prepared for a challenge inspec- substantive preparation for the May was set (the Conference having tion and concerns regarding ‘abuse’ Review Conference. One participant accepted extension in principle) for of the challenge inspection mecha- labelled the Review Conference a one per cent destruction. It was nism; the need for a clear understand- ‘missed opportunity’ already. On the reported that this objective had
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 13 Pugwash Meeting No. 281 already been met at Russia’s Gorny Committee in New York this year. A destruction, amongst other things. It destruction facility. Another recent special meeting, devoted to discus- was observed that the strict dividing development in Russia is the replace- sions with the OPCW, IAEA, WCO, line between chemistry and biology ment of Zinovy Pak by General Interpol and others, was planned for had already disappeared, with the Kholstov, Head of the Radiation, mid-May. Internally, the OPCW’s developments, for example, in Chemical and Biological Defence Open-Ended Working Group on Ter- biotechnology and changes in the Troops, as head of the Russian Muni- rorism, established in December chemical industry. Concerns were tions Agency. 2001, has been reactivated. In addi- raised amongst the workshop regard- On other issues related to posses- tion, in September 2002 the first ing the presentation of SAB reports sion of chemical weapons, with the OPCW exercise on the delivery of via notes from the Director-General – recent addition of Albania to the list, assistance (ASSISTEX I) took place in it was considered that this might at there are now five declared chemical Croatia, based on a hypothetical ter- least create an impression that the weapons possessor states. rorist chemical attack on an airport. SAB was subordinated to the Direc- Discussions are, apparently, continu- In addition to the more general tor-General, rather than an indepen- ing regarding what, of the relatively reports on the OPCW, the workshop dent body. However, it was empha- small quantities of chemical weapons also received a paper on the SAB’s sised that the SAB was independent found by Albania, will need to be report to the Review Conference, and carried out its work in good declared. which had very recently been issued faith. In respect of the role of the to States Parties. The report analyses One of the areas of interest to the OPCW in combating chemical terror- relevant developments in the fields of workshop was the advancement in ism, while little occurred during most science and technology and provides technology relevant to verification of of 2002, a shift was reported to have advice to the Review Conference, destruction, given the high percent- occurred towards the end of the year. with the aim of improving the opera- age of OPCW funding absorbed by Recognising the need for tion of the CWC. In addition to some the verification programme. This is international organisations dealing new ideas, the SAB report also an issue currently under discussion, with weapons of mass destruction to includes earlier observations and rec- with a consultant having been hired play a role, the OPCW was invited to ommendations by the SAB on sched- by the Director-General to visit pos- attend the first session of the United uled chemicals, production of chemi- sessor states parties and formulate Nations (UN) Counter-Terrorism cal compounds, on-site analysis, and proposals in this area. The consensus seemed to be that, as will likely also be the case in relation to most other issues, the Review Conference would Senator Douglas Roche not take a specific substantive deci- of Canada, a member of the sion on this point but will instead Pugwash Council, examines highlight the issue and reiterate the the requirements of peace in need for resolution. Members of the a post-September 11 world, workshop expressed the hope that arguing that the modern world the Review Conference might formu- possesses the creativity and late a programme of work to look at political and legal tools to various issues in coming years. resolve conflict without war. The implementation of the
Published by Novalis OPCW’s tenure policy was an issue Saint Paul University provoking much discussion amongst Ottawa, Canada workshop participants. In late March E-mail: [email protected] the Executive Council finally took a website: www.novalis.ca decision in respect of the effective starting date for the OPCW’s seven year maximum length of service
14 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 281 tenure policy, some four years after of detecting the production of Sched- logues of already known toxic chemi- the Conference delegated authority to ule 1 chemicals—assuming that cals; more efficient toxic chemicals the Council to set a date. The starting Schedule 1 chemicals were being with different structures but similar date set by the Council is 2 July sought—by random inspection kinds of toxic effects; and new toxic 1999, the date of the Conference amongst thousands of DOC plants chemicals with quite new effects. The decision. The majority of the Secre- was doubted, and industry same lines of search are applicable tariat staff’s contracts started in May inspections were stated to be of mild today. The possibility of adding some or June of 1997. A number of work- deterrent effect. To increase toxic chemicals to the Schedules, or shop participants expressed concern confidence amongst states parties, the even amending the Convention in the at the implementation of the tenure presentation concluded that it is nec- future, was raised, with the caveat policy, which is due to take effect this essary to increase confidence in the that states parties may be politically calendar year. Amongst the concerns CWC, which should be achieved by unwilling to do so, particularly given raised were: the ability to recruit ensuring that implementing legisla- the threat of chemical terrorism. experienced inspectors for what will tion is complete, and that declara- A paper was also presented on be relatively short-term positions; a tions are full and accurate. What scientific and industrial developments possible reduction in the should be considered is how to make since 1992, when negotiation of the independence of staff from their pre- challenge inspections more politically CWC was concluded, highlighting vious jobs or governments; the loss of acceptable and useful tools. The pos- the great changes in industrial infra- institutional knowledge and inspec- sibility of having some form of ‘non- structure since that time. The trends tor experience; a reduction in opera- accusatory’ challenge inspection was in the chemical industry were consid- tional effectiveness; and the impact considered, but is not ripe for discus- ered to pose major challenges to the on morale at the Secretariat. The sion at a diplomatic level. The obser- implementation of the CWC, with a observation was made that, vation was made that the CWC was resulting need for flexibility within originally, bilateral inspection agree- designed primarily for state versus the OPCW and obvious implications ments had been contemplated for state scenarios, whereas what is now for inspector training. Article IV and V inspections, with the being sought is to utilise the provi- majority of inspectors having been sions of the CWC to help in the ‘Non-lethal warfare’ expected to carry out Article VI efforts to prevent terrorism. The topic which absorbed the work- inspections. Some members Looking at other emergent threats shop for much of its time was ‘non- concluded from the tenure decisions to the Convention, the workshop lethal’ warfare, an issue which, taken that an effort would be made received a presentation considering together with the question of ‘law to gradually lower the number of the comprehensiveness of the General enforcement’ under the Convention approved posts within the Purpose criterion (GPC) and asking (a topic also addressed separately by Secretariat. whether there were any inconsisten- the workshop – see below), has cies in the Convention, the position become more controversial and high The CWC: The first five years of Riot Control Agents (RCA) being profile since the last meeting of the Emergent Threats to the Convention highlighted as a potential problem. workshop in Geneva in November A provocative presentation was given One issue raised was the misunder- 2002, where it was also discussed. A to the workshop, taking the point of standing of the phrase ‘toxic chemi- large number of the papers received view of a terrorist or agent of a rogue cal’, with differing meanings ascribed by the workshop addressed these state and asking where that person to this phrase in the CWC and within issues, as well as the related issue of would perceive weaknesses and the scientific community. The issue of RCA, and the Moscow hostage crisis. opportunities for obtaining chemical new toxic compounds as a result of The workshop addressed the issue agents. The hypothesis was that scientific and technological develop- of ‘new weapons’ and methods of small, new and inexperienced chemi- ment was also highlighted, with three warfare, highlighting the legal cal companies in financial difficulties, principle lines of search identified as scrutiny required of new weapons by with a large amount of spare capac- having been used in the past: for Article 36 of Additional Protocol I to ity, would be targeted. The likelihood more efficient analogues and homo- the Geneva Conventions. It was reit-
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 15 Pugwash Meeting No. 281 erated that, as shown by the Moscow the implications for the CWC regime effects would be truly temporary; hostage crisis, the effect of a calma- of the increasing governmental inter- that the safety ratio would be equal tive or incapacitant agent depends on est in NLW for ‘law enforcement’. or better to that of CS; that the the means of delivery and the envi- With particular reference to the US effects would be recognisable; that ronment in which it is delivered, and research into NLW, although not there would be prior announcement to achieve military effectiveness, the considered to be in violation of the of the possible use; and that there dose required inevitably results in a CWC, it was thought to be close to would be known countermeasures. proportion of the people exposed the line. To the knowledge of the There are concerns, however, associ- receiving a dangerous if not lethal workshop, there are no defensive ated with any UN use of RCA, espe- dose. The use of a hypothetical ‘per- NLW projects underway in the US. cially given that such agents would fect’ non-lethal weapon (NLW) on a The reasons for this are that the US is have to be stockpiled by a state party battlefield was then explored, with not yet at the development phase of as the UN does not maintain an concerns raised regarding the ability NLW and that the chemicals being active force or weapons stockpile. In of soldiers to recognise and respond examined are established pharmaceu- addition, the threat of force with con- appropriately to the enemy’s incapac- ticals with known antidotes. ventional weapons (i.e., firing into itation, resulting in a potentially the air) may be just as effective as the increased mortality due to increased use of RCA – it should not be auto- The presentation concluded vulnerability. The position was taken matically assumed that there is a gap that consideration in terms of inter- that it is incorrect to categorically in the force continuum that needs to national humanitarian law should be be filled by NLW. distinguish between lethal given to the deployment of new The workshop also considered weapons and methods of warfare. and ‘non-lethal’ weapons. the position regarding potential use Included in that is consideration of of RCA in Iraq, where there is a situ- the effects on the victims, and the ation of effective control by US and prohibition at customary international The divide between the US posi- UK forces. The workshop generally law of attack against civilians. On the tion on RCA as not being toxic accepted that ‘law enforcement’ does other hand, discussion amongst the chemicals falling within the GPC, not mean or include enforcement of workshop also reflected that in a and that of the majority of other international law. While it would not world with increasing terrorist threats, states which view RCA as falling include military use, it could however new risks may require new responses, within the scope of the GPC, was include maintaining law and order in and that doctrinal approaches may highlighted. The US Navy Judge a peacekeeping context in an area not always be helpful. Advocate General opinion differenti- under occupation. The opinion was Another presentation delivered to ated between the definition in Article expressed that RCA could be used the workshop highlighted that the II of ‘toxic chemical’ and ‘RCA’. One should it be necessary to control a number of fatalities (approximately workshop participant stated that riot riot involving prisoners of war. On 15 per cent) incurred during the control was a use for chemicals, and the other hand, it was noted that if Moscow hostage crisis was to be referred back to the GPC, stressing RCA had been used by the US during expected. The presentation concluded that RCA were still toxic chemicals. military operations, and given that that it is incorrect to categorically This, however, is not the position Iraq is not a state party to the CWC, distinguish between lethal and ‘non- taken by the US, which views the dif- Iraq might have viewed such use as lethal’ weapons. While there is dis- ferent wording of the two concepts as justifying a response with any CW agreement as to whether there might deliberate and meaningful. agent. be a truly NLW in the future (i.e., less One proposal raised within the As a side issue, the question was than 0.5 per cent fatality rate), the workshop was to allow the use of raised whether a state party could presenter concluded that they might NLW in certain UN-mandated opera- argue that unfilled munitions were eventually be discovered. As touched tions, based on rules of engagement intended to be filled and used for law on by many participants at the work- that would be drawn up by the UN. enforcement purposes, thus evading shop, there are real concerns about Those criteria would include: that the what might otherwise be a violation
16 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 281 of the Convention. However, there CWC for consultation between states All of these concerns can be allayed was no consensus that Article II, parties to clarify and resolve ambigu- and remedied by proper implementa- paragraph 1 of the CWC requires a ous situations or concerns about pos- tion (and understanding) of the GPC. judgement as to whether the ‘types sible non-compliance. A number of Such implementation is a positive and quantities’ are consistent with states parties do request information and open-ended obligation by the the purposes not prohibited – under from others, primarily on a confiden- CWC, in particular by the require- the definition of ‘chemical weapons’ tial and non-accusatory basis, which ment in the ‘Molander chapeau’ in this applies to munitions and devices, avoids unnecessarily elevating the Article VI, paragraph 2 that states as well as toxic chemicals. issue. There is a question whether the parties adopt the ‘necessary Executive Council should be measures’. The presentation Allegations of non-compliance informed of bilateral discussions on concluded with suggestions that the Six years after the CWC entered into such matters. Review Conference should formally force, there has still not been a chal- Compliance concerns also exist reaffirm the central importance of the lenge inspection. One of the explana- outside of the Article IX context. For GPC, and the definition in Article II, tions for this is the perception that, if example, a number of states parties paragraph 2 of ‘toxic chemical’, as a challenge inspection is carried out, have failed to meet their Article VII well as calling on all states parties to something must be found, if not a obligations to implement penal legis- fulfil their Article VII undertakings. ‘smoking gun’. It was reported that lation, have legislation targeting only Building on this, the workshop the United Kingdom (UK) is attempt- scheduled chemicals instead of incor- then examined implementation of the ing to demystify the challenge inspec- porating the GPC, and fail to submit GPC. The challenge to the CWC tion mechanism in order to show that declarations. from unscheduled agents, such as they can be used (sparingly) without some of the novichoks, mid-spectrum jeopardising industrial or Key basic elements of the CWC and materials such as bio-regulators, and government secrets. One of the pur- their implementation calmatives was highlighted, although poses of challenge inspections, and The General Purpose Criterion it was also stressed that such agents the verification regime, is to reduce (GPC) are indeed covered by the GPC. A the corrosive effect of unfounded sus- The workshop received two presenta- number of international initiatives picions. However, as was pointed out tions on the GPC, outlining its ori- have been launched addressing to the workshop, challenge inspec- gins during negotiations, drawing on potential risks to the environment tions have to exist in a climate where the BWC purpose-based definition, and public health from chemicals, currently several states parties allege and stressing the importance of its many of which originated with the there are large stocks of chemical implementation. The GPC is clearly United Nations Environment weapons in a certain state party but expressed in Article II, paragraph Programme. In implementing the ongoing OPCW inspections have 1(a) and Article VI, paragraph 2 of GPC, National Authorities in states found nothing. Nevertheless, there is the CWC. Some of the benefits of the parties should take note of the at least a prima facie inconsistency, GPC are its ability to anticipate tech- national and international and corrosive impact on the regime, nological change and to control dual programmes addressing the safe man- between public statements alleging use agents. agement of chemicals, particularly as possession of chemical weapons and The first presentation highlighted these programmes focus on those an absence of action to redress this three concerns expressed in recent chemicals which pose the greatest through the mechanisms in the CWC. years in relation to the CWC and threat to health and the environment. (This situation was subsequently GPC. The first is the belief that there Again, the Review Conference was highlighted at the Review Conference are gaps in the range of weapons out- considered to be an occasion on by the US statement on the first lawed by the CWC. Second is the which the importance of the GPC morning, which ‘named names’.) increased interest by states parties in should be reaffirmed. In addition to the challenge so-called NLW. Third is the increas- In discussion, the view was inspection mechanism, there is also ing attraction to terrorists of using expressed that the GPC is still not provision under Article IX of the toxic chemicals for hostile purposes. fully understood by all those involved
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 17 Pugwash Meeting No. 281 with the CWC. To increase under- knowledge of novel agents may be ical plant in a state party, thus releas- standing, it was proposed that the useful in keeping industry aware and ing toxic chemicals (which had been GPC should be on the agenda of up to date. The value of secrecy sur- stored or produced there for pur- every Conference of the States Par- rounding novel agents existed in the poses not prohibited) into the envi- ties, to ensure co-operation to foster past, when there was a possibility of ronment, was discussed. During understanding. However, it was states using chemical weapons or negotiations, while deliberate attacks noted that so far, there had been no retaliating with such agents. Given against chemical facilities were dis- mention of the phrase ‘GPC’ in the that there is no strictly limited num- cussed, there was no consensus and preparations for the Review Confer- ber of toxic agents that could be used nothing was included in the CWC on ence and it was assumed that no such by terrorists, there is no need to this topic. Under Article X, para- mention was likely in the final docu- ensure the absolute secrecy of formu- graph 8 of the CWC, a state party ments emerging from the Review can request assistance and protection Conference. Instead, the phrase ‘com- if it considers that chemical weapons prehensive nature’ of the CWC was Undue secrecy was thought to or RCA (as a method of warfare) used. Suggestions for the reasons be counter-productive, as have been used against it – there is no lying behind this reluctance to offi- need for the actor to have been a cially use the term ‘GPC’ include that knowledge of novel agents may state. However, the other limb of it is not used in the CWC, that some be useful in keeping industry Article X, paragraph 8, is if ‘it is states parties do not accept the term, threatened by actions or activities of and that it is hard to translate into aware and up to date. any State that are prohibited for different languages. The very ambi- states parties…’. Thus, under this guity of the term ‘General Purpose lae today. The opinion was expressed limb, which is the most applicable to Criterion’ in English is quite useful. that, instead, an aggressive policy of the scenario of an attack against a By comparison, reference to the openness might be more advanta- chemical plant, it seems the actor must ‘comprehensive nature of the Con- geous. In particular, if the nature of have been a state, not a terrorist acting vention obligations’ was thought by the agent used in the Moscow alone. Nevertheless, there are always some participants to be an inade- hostage crisis had been known ear- possibilities for consultation and co- quate equivalent to, or expression of, lier, treatment might have improved. operation, and for bilateral assistance. the GPC, which could be used by On the other hand, one participant some states parties to avoid their noted that some people considered Domestic penal legislation obligations. that some dangerous novel com- The workshop received two presenta- The method of implementation of pounds escaped oversight under the tions on the need for, and current dis- the CWC, and GPC, is left up to each current verification system, which appointing lack of, domestic penal state party, with National Authorities was good reason for maintaining legislation under Article VII of the primarily involved in a co-ordinating secrecy around such compounds. CWC. Not only have almost half of role. National legislation to incorpo- In relation to new agents, the use- states parties failed to report imple- rate the GPC (a topic which was fulness of international humanitarian menting legislation to the OPCW, touched upon later in the workshop law, and Article 36 of Additional only 28 per cent of states parties have in more depth) is clearly essential. In Protocol I, should not be ignored – adequate (‘all key areas’) reported terms of verification activities, these it is yet another body of law creating legislation. are based on the Schedules, rather obligations on states parties, which The first paper on the topic of than the GPC – this is a topic which could be used to draw attention to national implementing legislation may require revisiting in future years. the issue. While this may not influence argued that there are three areas in The question of secrecy also exer- rogue states or terrorists, the CWC which the quality of national penal cised the workshop, particularly in should not be viewed as the only pos- legislation can be less than compre- relation to unscheduled chemicals sible solution to the problems. hensive: in relation to chemicals; peo- and novel agents. Undue secrecy was On a divergent issue, the legality ple; and activities. On the topic of thought to be counter-productive, as of a deliberate attack against a chem- chemicals, the primary question is
18 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 281 whether the legislation covers the Committee may also result in and Russia to try and ensure the GPC, and not simply the scheduled increased political awareness about implementation of export controls chemicals, as discussed above. With aspects of implementation and the for technology mirroring those of the regard to people, it was noted that need for assistance. Australia Group. In subsequent dis- the UK legislation covers government The workshop also discussed cussion, it was noted that the Aus- officials, including defence scientists some aspects of individual states par- tralia Group constraints had close and members of the armed forces. ties’ implementing legislation, includ- parallels to those for drug precursors Finally, the activities covered should ing that of South Africa, which has for illicit drug production. Questions be as co-extensive as the prohibitions omnibus legislation, and the UK and were raised amongst the workshop in the CWC and, where possible, Belgium. Attention was drawn to the participants as to the consistency of should use the language of the CWC. availability of model implementing the Australia Group with Article XI Despite the present low rate of legislation on the OPCW website, of the CWC. adequate legislation, the second pre- with some concerns being expressed Under the heading of industry sentation stated that there were posi- about the legislation of some states and trade, the workshop also tive developments in this area, with parties which contain derogations in discussed inspections of DOC/PSF the perception of a new mobilisation respect of challenge inspections – it plants under the Convention, with by states parties to address the issue was thought that if this was used as a the conclusion made by one presenter of national implementation. For model by other states parties, it might that after some 450 Article VI inspec- example, the topic of implementing result in the ‘ratcheting down’ of tions, the OPCW now had sufficient legislation is addressed in one way or implementing legislation. experience to warrant a review of the another by many of the national process of such inspections as indeed papers for the Review Conference The CWC: The way ahead the First Review Conference is and it was expected that the Review Industry and Trade: maximizing the required to do under the CWC, and a Conference would result in a number benefits redistribution of them to increase of proposals for action in this field. The Australia Group was the subject DOC/PSF inspections. In a second The events of September 11 have of some discussion by the workshop, presentation, issues relating to the increased the interest of states parties which received a presentation outlin- verification of OCPFs and the speci- in an enforceable chemical weapons ing its role and impact as a non-pro- ficity of SITC codes, different types instrument. By contrast to the posi- liferation regime, emphasising in par- of access to the overall facility, and tion at the time of entry into force, no ticular the US experience. Having plant/plant site delineation were out- longer is national implementation outlined the objectives, method of lined. viewed simply as an internal matter operation and criteria for member- In a discussion paper that was for states parties. Within the OPCW ship of the Australia Group, some of provided to the Review Conference, a matrix of requests for OPCW its perceived limitations and the International Council of Chemi- implementation support and responses challenges to it were also explored. cal Associations identified relevant is now being created, which gives a One of those was stated to be the key trends in technology and the global overview of the state of devel- requirement of consensus when market. A number of key positions opment of implementing legislation adopting decisions, though others were also elaborated. Amongst those in each country, the assistance needs within the workshop saw consensus were the distinct nature of routine of states parties and information on as the only way to keep the Australia and challenge inspections, with the assistance programmes being deliv- Group together. The presenter stated need for a useable challenge inspec- ered. In addition, an expanded net- that, while it was necessary for intel- tion mechanism expressed, national work of legal experts (building on ligence to be shared on a classified implementing legislation, and con- that created in Latin America and the level, the Australia Group was not centration on core Treaty obligations. Caribbean) is being created, with a ‘secretive’. The Australia Group was Other topics addressed included: the first meeting to take place in Novem- also stated to be interested in nature of the future Schedule 3 ber 2003. OPCW participation in the outreach, with specific reference regime and, in particular, opposition work of the UN Counter-Terrorism made to working with China, India to automatic translation of the
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 19 Pugwash Meeting No. 281
Schedule 2 ban on exports to states date efforts to induce these three to ‘law enforcement’; in its simplest parties to Schedule 3 chemicals; tech- states to become states parties to the form, the US views domestic riot con- nical and logistical challenges to sam- CWC have failed. Working on the trol as a subset of ‘law enforcement’, pling and analysis; safeguarding of assumption that Israel possesses while the UK, emphasising interpre- confidential business information; chemical weapons, the presentation tation in light of the ‘object and pur- and the impact of terrorist threats. analysed the political, economic and pose’ of the CWC in accordance with The topic of a Schedule 3 export ban strategic setting in relation to the Article 31 of the 1969 Vienna Con- was one which provoked some three states. It was stressed that there vention on the Law of Treaties (the debate, with some participants taking were three misperceptions by the ‘Vienna Convention’), views law the view that a ban might become the Arab states regarding Israel’s CW enforcement as a subset of domestic only way in which to induce non capacity, the value of CW to Israel riot control. To understand the back- states parties to join the CWC by and the likelihood of Israel foregoing ground to the current ambiguity in making it much ‘warmer’ to be inside its nuclear option within the perceiv- the language of the CWC, it is neces- the CWC regime than outside it. able future. The paper concluded that sary to review the relevant negotiat- Both incentives to join, and disincen- regional adherence to the CWC ing history, the prohibition on RCA tives to be outside the regime, are would not destabilize the Israeli-Arab as a method of warfare, the declara- needed. Given the increasing number balance and might even be a positive tion requirements in Article III, para- of states parties, the amount of trade step towards a common security graph 1(e) which are limited only to affected by a Schedule 3 ban would regime in the Middle East. RCA, and state practice since negoti- be much reduced, and a ban would In subsequent discussion, the ation of the CWC, particularly with be simpler to implement than to strategic uselessness of chemical respect to the Moscow theatre events require, for example, undertakings. weapons in the Middle East, given and increasing interest in NLW. The The counter-argument is that if the current international presentation concluded that there are Schedule 3 chemicals became environment, was discussed, and the increasing pressures to ignore con- unavailable, a non state party might domestic propaganda value extracted straining interpretations of the CWC decide to build a facility to produce from this issue highlighted. The inter- in regard to disabling chemicals, a them. In addition, non states parties national political gains that Israel situation which required serious of particular concern, such as Syria might make from taking a first step attention. To address this, amendment and North Korea, were stated not to in this arena were thought to of the Convention was suggested, to generally purchase Schedule 3 chemi- outweigh any perceived increase in require declarations of the identity of cals from states parties, thus meaning vulnerability. all chemicals held for law enforce- that a Schedule 3 export ban would ment purposes, not simply RCA. It not have much of an impact on them. Law Enforcement was recognised that it might be pre- The impact of such a ban on Taiwan The workshop addressed the prob- mature to address law enforcement at was also raised. lem of ‘law enforcement including the forthcoming Review Conference, domestic riot control purposes’ under but some multilateral interim mea- States not yet parties the CWC – although a separate sures were suggested, including affir- The workshop received an in-depth agenda item, this issue had also come mation that only chemicals meeting paper on chemical weapons in rela- up during the workshop when dis- the definition of RCA be used for law tion to the Middle East, focussing in cussing NLW. It was observed that enforcement purposes, affirmation of particular on the deadlocked the note from the Director-General to the understanding of ‘law enforce- positions of Syria, Egypt and Israel the Review Conference flagged the ment’ as covering action taken within towards the CWC. Due to the Arab issue but merely stated that states the scope of a state party’s jurisdic- ‘linkage’ approach between chemical parties might wish to address these tion to enforce its laws, and tasking and nuclear disarmament, and issues. the SAB to report on the meaning of Israel’s reliance on its (officially unde- One presentation to the workshop the word ‘toxic’. clared) nuclear arsenal as the set out the differences between the The second presentation to the ultimate guarantor of its survival, to approach taken by the US and the UK workshop also focussed on the docu-
20 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 281 mentary history relating to the law a new Convention might detract Participants enforcement controversy, and the from the existing treaty regimes. Vienna Convention, to inform cur- There was extensive discussion on rent interpretation. The context (both this topic amongst the participants of Dr. Eitan Barak, Lecturer, The Depart- within the CWC and in regard to the the workshop. One point raised was ment of International Relations, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel; Geneva Protocol), ordinary meaning, that the overall objective of the CWC Adjunct Lecturer, The Faculty of Law, and the official language versions of is to save multitudes (see the pream- Tel-Aviv University. Email: eitanbarak@ the provisions were also stressed. The ble to the CWC - ‘for the sake of all mscc.huji.ac.il conclusion reached was that ‘law mankind’), not simply several hun- Dr. Maurizio Barbeschi, CBW Inspector, enforcement’ in Article II, paragraph dred people, a goal best achieved by UNMOVIC, and Director of the CBW 9(d) could not be interpreted to total prohibition. Furthermore, to let Programme of the Landau Network-Cen- exempt from prohibition any agent violations of the comprehensive pro- tro Volta, Como, Italy [formerly: Senior that is not an RCA as defined in Arti- hibition contained within the CWC Policy Officer, Verification Division, Pol- cle II, paragraph 7. A number of sug- appear to be legitimate would cause icy and Review Branch, Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons gestions for further action were existing international law, built up (OPCW)]. E-mail: mbarbeschi@ made, including the reaffirmation over many years by state practice and yahoo.com that the prohibitions of the CWC opinio juris, to suffer. The danger of Amb. Serguei Batsanov, Director, Special cover all chemicals regardless of ori- linking the law enforcement issue to Projects, Organization for the Prohibition gin or method of production. that of NLW, as ‘law enforcement’ of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), The The workshop also received relates to toxic chemicals, both of the Hague, The Netherlands [formerly: information outlining the attractions ‘lethal’ and ‘non-lethal’ kind, was Director for External Relations, OPCW of NLW for a range of groups, also stressed. The role that the death Preparatory Commission (1993-97); Rep- including ordinary criminals, penalty played in the negotiating his- resentative of the Russian Federation to the Conference on Disarmament, Geneva despots, terrorists and the military. tory was emphasised, given the estab- (1989-93)]. E-mail: sergueibatsanov@ The ‘non-lethal’ nature of such lished practice in a number of states opcw.org weapons, both now and in the future of lethal injections to carry out capi- Mr. Peter A. Beerwerth, Deputy Perma- when more truly non-lethal agents tal punishment (portrayed in some nent Representative, Permanent Repre- might be developed, was also countries as ‘law enforcement’), with sentation of Germany to the OPCW, The explored, as was the fact that NLW concerns expressed by some partici- Hague, The Netherlands [formerly: posi- are often used as an adjunct to, pants as to how far this issue has tions in the German Foreign Service as rather than replacement for, lethal been extrapolated. Head, Economic Department, Cairo; force. Pursuit of chemical incapaci- The topic of international crimi- Desk Officer, Public Information Divi- sion, Bonn; Deputy Consul General, tants was seen as the likely first step nalization, although on the agenda, Detroit]. E-mail: cw2@denh. towards the exploitation of pharma- was only briefly discussed, with a auswaertiges-amt.de cology and biotechnology for hostile short outline provided on universal Mr. Irakli Beridze, Office of Special Pro- purposes, a step unlikely to be jurisdiction (for a fuller account, see jects, Organization for the Prohibition of restricted simply to domestic law the report of the 18th workshop of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), The Hague, enforcement. To prevent a new chem- the Study Group). The Netherlands, . E-mail: Beridze@ ical arms race, the possibility of a hotmail.com Future work new international treaty to prohibit Mr. Richard H. Burgess, Consultant in the hostile manipulation of human The workshop closed on the Sunday Trade and Treaty Compliance, Newark, physiology was explored. Despite the evening with a sense that discussion Delaware, USA [formerly: Senior length of time negotiation would take on a number of the topics touched on Counsel, DuPont Legal]. E-mail: and the political challenges, rather over the weekend was far from [email protected] than trying to make existing treaty exhausted. The next workshop of the Col. (ret.) Pierre Canonne, Member, regimes adapt to new challenges, per- Study Group, concentrating on BWC Pugwash Council ; Senior Lecturer, haps a new solution is required. On issues, is likely to be held in Geneva, Disarmament and Arms Control, Univ. Marne-la-Vallés/Paris, France [formerly: the other hand, there is a danger that in November 2003. Head, Training and Staff Development
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 21 Pugwash Meeting No. 281
Branch, OPCW; Senior Staff, Strategic Working Group on Verification, Techni- of Foreign Affairs [formerly: Counsellor, Affairs Department, Ministry of Defence; cal Cooperation and Assistance of the Deputy Representative of Iran to the Counsellor, Permanent Mission of France OPCW Preparatory Commission; Special OPCW, Iranian Embassy, The Hague; to the Conference on Disarmament, Assistant to the Executive Secretary of the Deputy Director, Department of Disar- Geneva]. E-mail: canonne.pierre@ Preparatory Commission]. E-mail: mament and International Affairs, Min- wanadoo.fr [email protected] istry of Foreign Affairs (1995-1997), Tehran; attended the Conference on Brig. General (ret.) Chol-Ho Chong, Ms. Diana Gosens, Policy Advisor, Disarmament, and several sessions of Consultant, Organisation for the Prohibi- National Authority of the Kingdom of the Biological Weapons Convention in tion of Chemical Weapons, The Hague, the Netherlands, Directorate-General for Geneva and the UNDC in New York; The Netherlands [formerly: Special Foreign Economic Affairs, Trade Policy member of the Iranian National Author- Adviser for CWC, Ministry of National and International Investment Department ity for the Chemical Weapons Conven- Defence, Republic of Korea, Seoul (2002- Trade Policy Instruments and Export tion]. E-mail: [email protected] 2003); Commander of Air University, Control Unit, The Hague, The Nether- ROKAF, Seoul (2001-2002)]. E-mail: lands. E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Walter Krutzsch, CWC Consultant, [email protected] Berlin, Germany [formerly: Member of Mr. Peter Heinrich, R&D, Blücher the delegation of the German Democratic Mr. Don Clagett, Verification Division, GmbH, Erkrath, Germany. E-mail: Republic to the DC; Chairman of work- Organization for the Prohibition of [email protected] ing groups of the Ad Hoc Committee on Chemical Weapons (OPCW), The Hague, Mr. Peter Kaiser, Branch Head, Media & Chemical Weapons; various staff posi- The Netherlands. E-mail: donclagett@ Public Affairs, OPCW, The Hague, The tions at the CWC Preparatory Commis- yahoo.com Netherlands [formerly: European Corre- sion and the OPCW]. E-mail: walter. Dr. Robin Coupland (UK), Medical Advi- spondent and Bureau Chief: Reuters Tele- [email protected] (or) sor, Legal Division, International Com- vision, N-TV/CNN (German 24-hr news [email protected] mittee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Geneva, TV), CNBC Europe, European Business Dr. Matthijs Leeuw, Manager, Division Switzerland [formerly : Coordinator of News/Dow Jones Broadcasting]. E-mail: Chemical & Biological Protection Institu- Surgery, Health Division, ICRC]. E-mail: [email protected] tion, TNO Prins Maurits Laboratory, [email protected] Dr. Alexander Kelle, Marie Curie Rijswijk, The Netherlands. E-mail: Dr. Brian Davey, Head, Health and Research Fellow, Department of Peace [email protected] Safety, Organisation for Prohibition of Studies, University of Bradford, Bradford, Dr. Detlef Maennig, Director, Applied Chemical Weapons (OPCW), The Hague, West Yorkshire, UK [formerly : Science Technology, Degussa AG, Hanau, Ger- The Netherlands. E-mail: bdavey@ Fellow, Center for International Security many. E-mail: detlef.maennig@ opcw.org and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford Uni- degussa.com versity, Stanford, California (2001- Mr. Harmen van Dijk, Policy Advisor, 2002); Research Associate, Institute of Prof. Robert Mathews, Principal Nuclear Affairs and Non-Proliferation, Comparative Politics and International Research Scientist, Defence Science and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Hague, Relations, J.W. Goethe University Frank- Technology Organisation, Australia ; The Netherlands. E-mail: furt (2000-2001); Research Associate, Associate Professor, Asia Pacific Centre [email protected] Peace Research Institute Frankfurt for Military Law, University of Melbourne. Dr. Trevor Findlay, Exec. Director, Verifi- (PRIF), Frankfurt/Main, Germany (1994- E-mail: [email protected] cation Research, Training and Informa- 99)]. E-mail: [email protected] Prof. Jiri Matousek, Professor of Toxicol- tion Centre (VERTIC), London, UK. Mr. Ian Kenyon, Visiting Senior Research ogy, Masaryk University Brno, Faculty of E-mail: [email protected] Fellow, Mountbatten Centre for Interna- Science, Research Centre for Environ- Mr. Sylwin Jerzy Gizowski, Director, Sec- tional Studies, University of Southamp- mental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology, retariat for the Policy-Making Organs, ton, Highfield, Southampton, UK [for- Brno, Czech Republic; Member, OPCW Organisation for the Prohibition of merly: Executive Secretary, Preparatory Scientific Advisory Board [formerly: Chemical Weapons (OPCW), The Hague, Commission for the Organisation for the Director, Institute of Environmental The Netherlands [formerly: Deputy Head Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW Chemistry and Technology, Faculty of of the Polish delegation to the Conference PrepCom), The Hague, The Netherlands; Chemistry, Brno Universtiy of Technol- on Disarmament; Chairman of Working HM Diplomatic Service]. E-mail: ogy; Director, Czechoslovak NBC- Group on Verification of the Ad Hoc [email protected] Defence R&D Establishment; Member, Committee on CW; Head of the Politico- Czechoslovak Delegation to the Confer- Mr. Mohammad Khodadadi, Director, Disarmament Division of MFA; Head of ence on Disarmament, Geneva]. E-mail: Office for International Academic Rela- the Polish delegation to the OPCW [email protected] tions, School of International Relations Preparatory Commission; Chairman of (MFA), Tehran, Iran; Director in Ministry
22 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 281
Dr. Jan Medema, Consultant, TNO-Prins Mr. Karl Ludwig Schulze, Technical tative to the OPCW, The Hague; Deputy Maurits Laboratory, Rijswijk, The Consultant, Blücher GmbH, Erkrath, Director of the Non-Proliferation, Arms Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected] Germany; Member of the Board of Control and Disarmament Division and Directors, Tex-Shield Inc., USA. E-mail: Head of Verification Research in the Prof. Matthew S. Meselson, Thomas [email protected] Department of Foreign Affairs and Inter- Dudley Cabot Professor of the Natural national Trade; Assistant Professor of Sciences, Department of Molecular and Mr. James Seevaratnam, Director, Chemi- Strategic Studies, College Militaire Royal Cellular Biology, Harvard University, cal and Biological Controls Division, de Saint-Jean]. E-mail: gvachon@ Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. E-mail: Office of Nonproliferation Controls & opcw.org [email protected] Treaty Compliance, US Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, USA [for- Amb. Marc Vogelaar, Permanent Repre- Dr. Robert Mikulak, Director, Office of merly: Technical/Policy Analyst, Office of sentative of the Kingdom of The Nether- Chemical and Biological Weapons Con- Technology and Policy Analysis, US lands to the OPCW, Ministry of Foreign ventions, Bureau of Arms Control, US Department of Commerce]. E-mail: Affairs, The Hague, The Netherlands. Department of State, Washington, DC, [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] USA. E-mail: [email protected] Mr. Nicholas Sims, Reader in Mr. Dominique Beat Werner, Head, Arms Prof. Wim M?ller, Division Molecular International Relations, London School Control Unit, AC Laboratorium Spiez, Cell Biology, Leiden University Medical of Economics and Political Science (LSE), Spiez, Switzerland. E-mail: dominique. Center, The Netherlands; Guest Worker, University of London, London, UK [for- [email protected] Chemistry Department, Leiden University merly: Member of UK Delegation to First [formerly: EMBO Adviser and Science Dr. Mark Wheelis, Senior Lecturer, Sec- Review Conference of the BWC (March Adviser in The Netherlands]. E-mail: tion of Microbiology, University of Cali- 1980), Geneva]. E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] fornia, Davis, California, USA. E-mail: Ms. Lisa Tabassi, Legal Officer, OPCW, [email protected] Prof. Graham S. Pearson, Visiting Profes- The Hague, The Netherlands [formerly: sor of International Security, Department Dr. Jean Pascal Zanders, Director, Senior Research Assistant, Preparatory of Peace Studies, University of Bradford, BioWeapons Prevention Project (BWPP), Commission for the OPCW (1993-97); Bradford, West Yorkshire, UK; Member, Geneva, Switzerland; CBW Project Legal Assistant, Klein Wegis, California HSP Advisory Board [formerly: Director Leader, SIPRI, Solna, Sweden [formerly (1989-93); Iran-US Claims Tribunal, The General and Chief Executive, Chemical with Centrum voor Polemologie, Vrije Hague (1983-85); Bureau of International and Biological Defence Establishment Universiteit Brussel, Belgium). E-mail: Legal Services, The Hague (1982-83); (CBDE), Ministry of Defence, Porton [email protected] Ghani & Tavakoli, Tehran, Iran (1979- Down, Salisbury, Wilts]. Email: 82)]. E-mail: [email protected] PUGWASH STAFF: [email protected] Dr. Ralf Trapp (Germany), Secretary, Claudia Vaughn, Pugwash Conferences, Dr. Peter Plant, Independent Consultant, Review Conference Steering Group, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, via della PJP Consultants, Midhurst, West Sussex, Office of the Deputy Director-General, Lungara 227, I-00165 Rome, Italy, Tel. UK; Member, UK National Authority Organisation for the Prohibition of (++39-06) 687-2606, Fax: (++39-06) Advisory Committee [formerly: Insecti- Chemical Weapons (OPCW), The Hague, 687-8376, E-mail: [email protected] cide Manufacturing Manager, The Netherlands [formerly: Head, Gov- AstraZeneca; Chair, CEFIC ad hoc ernment Relations and Political Affairs Committee against Chemical Weapons]. Branch, External Relations Division; E-mail: [email protected] Branch Head, International Cooperation Prof. Julian Perry Robinson, Sussex and Assistance Division ; Branch Head, Director, Harvard-Sussex Program, Policy & Review, Verification Division, Science & Technology Policy Research OPCW]. E-mail: [email protected] (SPRU), University of Sussex, Brighton, Ms. Fiona Tregonning (New Zealand), UK. E-mail: [email protected] Harvard Sussex Program Hague Mr. Martin Rudduck, Head of UK Researcher at the OPCW, The Hague, Chemical Weapons Convention National The Netherlands. E-mail: fiona. Authority, Department of Trade & Indus- [email protected] try, London, UK. E-mail: martin.rudduck Mr. Gordon Vachon, Head of Inspection @dti.gsi.gov.uk Review Branch, Organisation for the Mr. Arya Sandeep, First Secretary, Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, The Embassy of India, The Hague, The Hague, The Netherlands [formerly: Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected] Canadian Alternate Permanent Represen-
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 23 Pugwash Meeting No. 281
Working Papers
Jiri Matousek: Brief Information on the Nicholas A Sims: Implementing the International Council of Chemical Associ- Report of the OPCW Scientific Advisory Chemical Weapons Convention in Full: ations : 2003 Chemical Weapons Con- Board for the First CWC Review Confer- Some Issues of Comprehensiveness in vention Review Conference Discussion ence National Penal Legislation under Article Paper (presented by Detlef Maennig) VII Jiri Matousek: Emergent Threats to the Mohammad Khodadadi : Importance of Chemical Weapons Convention Peter Plant: Capability Some Articles of the CWC RG Sutherland: Industrial Inspections of Walter Krutzsch: Non-lethal Chemicals for Jean Pascal Zanders : Peacekeeping oper- DOC/PSF Plants and the Chemical Law Enforcement? (Paper + Appendix) ations, law enforcement, and the use of Weapons Convention RCAs : Two examples Walter Krutzsch: How to Respond to the 3B. Slides Non-lethal Weapons’ Challenge RG Sutherland: Scientific and Technologi- Lisa Tabassi: National Implementing Leg- cal Developments, Industrial Change and islation for the Chemical Weapons Con- the Chemical Weapons Convention vention: Status Six Years after Entry into Force (Part 1: Paper—-Part 2: Annexes) Matthew Meselson/Julian Robinson: A Draft Convention to Prohibit Biological James Seevaratnam: The Australia Group. and Chemical Weapons Under Interna- Its Role and Impact as a Nonproliferation tional Criminal Law Regime Richard Burgess: A Short Note on Indus- Eitan Barak: Implementation of the Chem- try Issues during Inspections ical Weapons Convention in the Middle East after the Saddam Era: Is There a Way Robin M. Coupland: “Calmatives” and Out of the Deadlock? “Incapacitants”: Questions for interna- tional humanitarian law brought by new Julian Robinson: The General Purpose means and methods of warfare with new Criterion and the Importance of Its Imple- effects? mentation Mark Wheelis: “Non-Lethal” Chemical Graham Pearson: First CWC Review Con- Weapons—A Faustian Bargain (in press), ference Paper No. 3: Implementation of the Issues in Science and Technology, Spring General Purpose Criterion of the Chemical 2003, 74-78 Weapons Convention, January 2003 (Series Editors: Graham S. Pearson and Malcolm Lynn Klotz, Martin Furmanski, Mark R. Dando, Dept. of Peace Studies, Univer- Wheelis: Beware the Siren’s Song: Why sity of Bradford) “Non-Lethal” Incapacitating Chemical Agents are Lethal Julian Robinson: Solving the Problem of “Law Enforcement” Chayes, Meselson, Smith: Proposed Guidelines on the Status of Riot Control Wim Möller : Quo Vadis ? Weapons of Agents and Other Toxic Chemicals under Mass Destruction, Chemical in Particular the Chemical Weapons Convention OPCW Conference of State Parties : Note Malcolm Dando: First CWC Review by the Director General to the First Review Conference Paper No. 4: The Danger to Conference (RC-1/DG.1, 17 April 2003) the Chemical Weapons Convention from OPCW Conference of State Parties : Note Incapacitating Chemicals, March 2003 by the Director-General. Report of the Sci- (Series Editors: Graham S. Pearson and entific Advisory Board on Developments in Malcolm R. Dando, Dept. of Peace Stud- Science and Technology (RC-1/DG.2, 23 ies, University of Bradford) April 2003)
24 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 PUGWASH MEETING No. 282
2nd Pugwash Workshop on South Asian Security Geneva, Switzerland, 16–18 May 2003
Report workshop’s discussions examined Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali ways of minimizing the nuclear welcomed Vapayee’s initiative, pledg- by Samina Ahmed threat and discussed immediate steps ing to constructively engage with and long-term goals towards address- India in resolving their many differ- he workshop’s primary objec- ing the Kashmir conflict, including ences.. However, a future dialogue tive was to assess the Kashmiri participation in any peace between India and Pakistan hinges on Tprospects for reopening a dia- process, cross-border infiltration and their political will and capability to logue between India and Pakistan the management of the Line of Con- sustain the normalization process and and continued cooperation to mini- trol. Identifying opportunities and to move in the direction of peace. mize confrontation between the two constraints to a resumed dialogue, Danger signals are already pre- traditional South Asian adversaries. the workshop examined agendas and sent. Even as the risk of a hot war The workshop included 37 partici- processes that would best sustain a recedes in South Asia, India’s political pants from India, Pakistan, Italy, durable peace between India and and Pakistan’s military leadership Switzerland, and the United States, Pakistan. continues to wage a war of words. and was organized jointly with the With general elections due in 2004, Geneva International Peace Research Breaking the stalemate New Delhi is understandably Institute (GIPRI). Both organizations On 18 April 2003, Indian Prime cautious, making any progress gratefully acknowledge support from Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee offered towards normalization, let alone the the Arbeitsgruppe Gute Dienst und a “hand of friendship” to Pakistan, resumption of a high-level dialogue, internationale Friedenssicherung ending a diplomatic and military contingent on decisive Pakistani steps (AGDIF) of the Swiss Ministry of impasse that had, just months before, to end the infiltration of militants Foreign Affairs and the Swiss Min- brought the two nuclear-armed states across the Line of Control in Kash- istry of Defense. to the brink of war. Pakistan’s Presi- mir. Denying Indian accusations of This workshop, a continuation of dent Pervez Musharraf and Prime armed support to militants operating the series of India-Pakistan in Indian Kashmir, Islamabad dialogues held in Geneva also insists on the centrality of (November 2002) and the Kashmir dispute if any Lahore (March 2003), future dialogue process is to occurred in the context of yield substantive results. initial steps taken by India Clearly, the two sides still lack and Pakistan in late April the political will and flexibility 2003 to normalize relations, needed for a solution to a con- ending the diplomatic and flict that has resulted in several military standoff that had fol- wars and near-war crises in the lowed the December 2001 past. terrorist attack on the Indian The significance of recent parliament. Focusing on ways developments admittedly lies in to strengthen the budding the easing of tensions and hence normalization process, the a reduction of imminent armed
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 25 Pugwash Meeting No. 282 conflict. The workshop’s objective tionship by removing some of the in the normalisation of bilateral rela- was to examine feasible and concrete curbs imposed on communication tions, but there was a wide near, immediate and long-term steps and diplomatic ties. These modest divergence in Indian and Pakistani that could be taken by both sides in a measures at conflict containment views on why it was so important. future dialogue by discussing an would set the stage for a future dia- India insists that Jammu and array of solutions and options that logue process only if the momentum Kashmir (J&K) is an integral part of might prove mutually acceptable. was sustained. Incentives for all con- the Indian Union. If there is a dispute While there was little disagreement cerned parties were also needed if at all, it only involves the one-third of on the framing of an agenda and on India and Pakistan were to succeed in Kashmiri territory occupied by Pak- the manner in which a future their search for viable and sustain- istan. Militancy in Kashmir under- dialogue should proceed, the work- able solutions of their many differ- mines Kashmiri and hence Indian shop’s deliberations also revealed the ences. This challenge was more than security. In Indian perceptions, absence of compromise and rethink- evident in the discussion of the Kash- despite President Musharraf’s pledge, ing on the most contentious of issues, mir conflict. Pakistan has yet to abandon its Kashmir and cross-border reliance on a proxy war, conducted infiltration. These and other differ- The Kashmir conundrum through sub-state actors, across the ences, rooted in a long history of war, If the purpose of the workshop was Line of Control in Kashmir . There is, remain a threat to the budding nor- to recommend ways in which the however, a shift in Indian policy from malization process and its transfor- Kashmir issue could be addressed placing all blame for unrest in J&K mation into a sustained dialogue for within a future dialogue, including on Pakistani intervention to an peace between India and Pakistan. the identification of a roadmap of emphasis on internal reconciliation. sorts, that would include immediate While India is concerned about Kash- Initial overtures steps and long-term goals, the discus- miri alienation, it believes it can be Although the participants differed on sions revealed the complexity of the addressed through internal, democra- the causes and consequences of India- problem and the many stumbling tic means, such as elections and other Pakistan differences, they blocs to conflict management, let participatory mechanisms. Stressing unanimously supported the current alone conflict resolution. There were that the 2002 state elections in J&K normalization process, calling it an some important points of agreement. have helped in promoting the process important turning point in the rela- Participants agreed, for instance, that of internal reconciliation, a partici- tionship. The decision to exchange any future dialogue between India pant called upon Pakistan to end its High Commissioners was welcomed, and Pakistan would have to address support for “cross-border terrorism” as was the decision to resume trans- the Kashmir conflict. They also and to respect the sanctity of the Line portation links. Participants pointed believed that fifty-five years of con- of Control in the interests of peace out that the initiative had the blessing flict, including three wars and several within Kashmir and between India of all major political parties in India near-war crises, proved that an over- and Pakistan. and Pakistan and that the reliance on coercion had only under- Pakistan insists that the Kashmir international environment was also mined the security of Indians, Pak- conflict is both a territorial dispute conducive to an India-Pakistan istanis and Kashmiris. This and a humanitarian issue. Its roots lie détente. However, this optimistic realisation that peaceful negotiations in India’s forcible occupation of two- response was tempered by caution. alone can resolve the Kashmir con- thirds of Jammu and Kashmir and its The political environment, said a par- flict is certainly a step forward. How- refusal to honour its pledge to imple- ticipant, was one of angst and anger. ever, India and Pakistan have yet to ment UN resolutions on self-determi- Reviving trust would not be an easy even agree upon a common definition nation for the Kashmiri people. task. While initial overtures and con- of the conflict, let alone its causes Denied that right, Kashmiris have cessions were promising, said another and potential solutions. Participants, been forced to conduct a political and participant, the objective thus far was for instance, agreed that Kashmir armed struggle for self- modest: to take India and Pakistan should be a core issue in any future determination. India’s resort to back to their December 2001 rela- dialogue since it poses a major hurdle “state-sponsored violence” has only
26 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 282 strengthened the Kashmiri resolve to jeopardise any progress made thus Pakistan’s focus on human rights oppose Indian control. Refuting far. Attributing a recent decline in abuses by Indian security forces in Indian accusations of Pakistan sup- infiltration to Pakistani concerns Kashmir as a ploy to gain their with- port for the cross-border infiltration about diminishing returns as the drawal to advance its objective of militants in Kashmir, Pakistan insists result of U.S. pressure, a participant annexing Kashmir. India and that the militancy is indigenous, the pointed out that, given the political Pakistan had almost reached an outcome of Kashmiri alienation, will, the two sides could easily agree agreement on Kashmir in the past, a fuelled by India’s refusal to accept the upon a simple but workable bilateral participant pointed out, only to be Kashmiri right of self-determination mechanism. It is easy, said a partici- undermined by the Pakistan army. and the use of indiscriminate force to pant, to infiltrate the LOC because of Other participants emphasised that suppress Kashmiri political aspira- its geography. It can only be stopped India hoped to exploit international tions. However, as a result of interna- if Pakistan demonstrates the political concerns about terrorism to under- tional, mainly U.S. pressure to end all will to stop all infiltration at source mine Pakistan’s standing and stakes support for cross-border militancy, by ending all assistance, including as an equal party to the Kashmir dis- there is a subtle shift in the Pakistani recruitment, training and infiltration. pute. If militancy in Kashmir was stand. Insisting that the government Responding to these suggestions, a minimised, said a participant, Pak- is taking steps to curb such activities, participant pointed out that the issue istan was concerned that India would Pakistan has asked for international of a covert war could not be dealt assume that the problem was man- and Indian understanding of its with in bilateral negotiations unless ageable and hence there was no need domestic constraints. Acknowledging there was also an understanding of to negotiate the dispute with that cross-border infiltration is a very the context of the conflict. Another Pakistan. serious issue and that Pakistani pointed out that there were two cen- The gap between the Indian and denials lack credulity, one tral aspects to the Kashmir problem, Pakistani positions on Kashmiri par- participant, for instance, stressed that the problem of cross-border infiltra- ticipation in any future dialogue is popular pressures placed limitations tion and state-sponsored violence. equally wide. Pakistan has repeatedly on governments changing policies Any mechanism to monitor cross- supported Kashmiri participation in overnight; stressed that the massive border infiltration would have to be any India-Pakistan dialogue, and has Indian troops presence in Jammu and accompanied by mechanisms to mon- even implied that it would accede to Kashmir had also failed to prevent all itor Indian security forces in Kashmir. a Kashmiri demand for infiltration by sub-state actors; and In any case, Pakistan denies any oper- independence. But India refuses to added that Kashmiris, an integral ational support for cross-border mili- renegotiate Jammu and Kashmir’s party to the dispute, rejected the tancy, insisting on international mon- inclusion in the Indian Union, insist- sanctity of the LOC. itoring of the LOC. Hence it would ing that mechanisms such as internal Given these differing interpreta- be near impossible to reach any elections would address Kashmiri tions of the causes and potential solu- mutually acceptable solution on grievances and demands. Pakistan tions of the Kashmir conflict, it is monitoring the LOC in a future dia- too still insists on a plebiscite, unlikely that the two states will agree logue, unless both sides were willing according to UN resolutions, to to a mutually accepted mechanism on to demonstrate an unprecedented ascertain the accession of the Kash- monitoring the LOC. India continues considerable degree of give and take. miri people to either India or to insist on a bilateral mechanism The mutual mistrust and rigidity Pakistan. Rejecting the territorial sta- that would provide, in the words of a that mark Indian and Pakistani poli- tus quo in Kashmir, moreover, Pak- participant, evidence of operational cies towards Kashmir were amply istan is unwilling to accept the LOC changes in Pakistan’s policy, stressing reflected in the discussion of the in its current form. In the words of a that such evidence would help to cre- workshop. When a participant participant, the LOC is itself a prob- ate the right environment for a pro- stressed that the reality of the Kash- lem and not a solution. In Indian per- ductive bilateral dialogue. If infiltra- miri struggle for self-determination ceptions, however, the solution of the tion continues, however, and there is and human suffering cannot be Kashmir conundrum could well lie in yet another major attack, it would denied, another participant dismissed the transformation of the LOC into
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 27 Pugwash Meeting No. 282 the international boundary. A num- proposed the reconstitution of an ing against a roadmap for a complex ber of norms have been strengthened entity (or entities) from the former issue like Kashmir, a number of par- in the 11 September environment, princely state of Jammu and Kash- ticipants stressed that there was need said a participant, including the sanc- mir: a sovereign entity (or entities) first to initiate a dialogue, to find tity of existing borders, which cannot without an international personality, some common ground and then to be challenged by any movement for with secular democratic explore feasible areas of agreement, self-determination. Another empha- constitution(s), legislature(s) and con- given the high stakes and limited sized that the transformation of the trol over all subjects except defence political will in both states. If a solu- LOC into an international border is and foreign affairs, which would be tion were to emerge, it would be the only viable solution, alongside jointly controlled by India and Pak- through a prolonged process of dis- soft borders and mechanisms for istan. The KSG has also cussions and negotiations, in which managing the LOC. The participant, recommended access of the Kashmir the Kashmiris could be factored in. however, admitted that this solution region to and from India and However, the problems of this might be unrealistic in the present Pakistan for the free flow of people, approach are also evident. If issues state of relations between India and goods and services and continued such as the acceptance or modifica- Pakistan. Others warned that there Indian and Pakistani economic sup- tion of the LOC and the degree of were only two ways of modifying the port for Kashmir. autonomy for Kashmir are not even LOC, through an agreement between One participant thought the discussed in a future dialogue, the India and Pakistan or through war. KSG’s suggestions were unrealistic, two sides could simply restate well- The roadmap for Kashmir advo- calling instead for an approach based known positions. Left to fester, the cated by the Kashmir Study Group on the reality ‘on the ground’, in conflict could, as in the past, desta- (KSG) calls for a dialogue between other words, the division of Jammu bilise India-Pakistan relations. India, Pakistan and the Kashmiri and Kashmir along the present LOC. Conscious that India and people to meet the legitimate Others warned that the KSG’s con- Pakistan’s differences over Kashmir concerns of all parties to the dispute. tentious proposals could pose more and cross-border infiltration could Among potential options for resolv- of a hurdle than a starting point in a derail the normalization process, a ing the dispute, the KSG has future India-Pakistan dialogue. Argu- number of participants strongly sup- ported an unconditional dialogue. Recommendations for India-Pakistan Dialogue While LOC infiltration was impor- tant, said one participant, progress Among the various recommendations to come out of the workshop were on this issue should not be made a the following: condition for either a dialogue 1A step-by-step process and a composite dialogue process or cooperation in other, less 2 An all-inclusive agenda with multiple tracks sensitive areas. Despite the 3 No hostile rhetoric to lower tensions and to improve the climate for differences of approach and analysis negotiations with regards to the Kashmir conflict, 4 No preconditions there was also general agreement that 5 Sustained process the conflict in Siachen served no pur- 6Create five working groups to discuss: pose and much support for a cease- • Kashmir issues fire as a prelude to an agreement. A • Terrorism issues resolution of this senseless war, as • Nuclear issues characterized by one participant, • Trade and economic issues would serve Indian and Pakistani • Group on all other issues including CBMs. interests in more ways than one, since - Each group may determine its working procedure. it would also open the way for - Progress in each group may not be conditioned by the status of progress on other mutually beneficial other groups. areas of cooperation. There was also agreement that the best way of
28 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 282 addressing contentious issues such as such as strengthening custodial then the international community Kashmir and cross-border infiltration measures. must play a role. Bilaterally India and would be through a step-by-step Some participants, however, had Pakistan might agree to a solution, approach. Restoring the peace on the grave doubts regarding nuclear crisis but left to ourselves, they might never LOC and normalizing bilateral rela- stability, given that India and get around to a process of dialogue. tions would create the right environ- Pakistan were willing to resort to Others, however, disagreed. Accord- ment for a sustained and meaningful conventional force. Did nuclear ing to one participant, the United dialogue for the resolution of dis- deterrence hold in 2001-2002, States had not played an honest bro- putes, including the Kashmir conflict. queried a participant, was it nuclear ker’s role in the past in its relations deterrence or U.S. diplomacy that with India and Pakistan. The only Minimizing nuclear risks prevented war? Others doubted the change that had occurred now was There was a considerable degree of efficacy of CBMs, including nuclear that the broker’s regional interests consensus on the inclusion of nuclear confidence building measures, in the had changed. risk reduction measures in a future India-Pakistan context. While a par- dialogue process, not surprising since ticipant asserted that CBMs, includ- Reopening an India-Pakistan most participants accepted the inevit- ing hotlines between Foreign Secre- dialogue ability of nuclear weapons in South taries, Directors-General of Military Despite divergent views on Kashmir, Asia but were also concerned about Operations and Prime Ministers were cross-border infiltration and an nuclear dangers in a volatile environ- effectively implemented until the imperfect record in implementing ment. The greatest threat to regional Kargil conflict, others believed that past agreements, the participants peace, said a participant, lay in most CBMs were implemented in a agreed that India and Pakistan could nuclear miscalculation and inadver- tactical and not a strategic sense. only resolve their differences through tent nuclear use and even deliberate During the 2001-2002 crisis, for negotiations, not through the threat nuclear escalation. Since nuclear dis- instance, the hotline between the or use of force. There was also gen- armament might be desirable, said DGMOs had proved ineffective. The eral agreement on an incremental another participant, but was not pos- effectiveness of CBMs, said a partici- step-by-step process that builds on a sible, the two states should focus pant, was undermined by mutual sus- foundation of trust. There was little their attention on stability measures picions and hostility and disagreement on an agenda for future in a future dialogue. While a partici- compounded by the uneven imple- talks between India and Pakistan. pant strongly supported a cap on mentation of CBMs such as prior Most participants agreed that the India and Pakistan’s nuclear capabili- notification of missile tests. CBMs, agenda should cover all issues ties to minimize nuclear risk, others noted others, only build confidence discussed in previous official meet- were far less sanguine about India when there is a basic level of trust, ings and identified in past commu- and Pakistan’s ability or will to resist which is missing in the India-Pakistan niqués and declarations, including a nuclear arms race. India and Pak- context. the joint statements of the Indian and istan’s nuclear capabilities were This importance of trust was also Foreign Secretaries of 1997 and determined by an action/reaction syn- stressed in the discussion on the role 1998. The 1997 meeting had, for drome said a participant, stressing of external powers in promoting a instance, resulted in agreement on a that Pakistan would inevitably follow dialogue between India and Pakistan. composite, multi-tracked dialogue. In India’s example if the latter opted for Advocating a pro-active US role, a future dialogue, issues could be pri- a nuclear triad. Another participant some participants pointed out that oritized, recommended a participant, recommended that India and India and Pakistan had failed to solve but they should not prevent parallel Pakistan should reexamine nuclear their differences through bilateral discussions along various threads. A risk reduction measures included in means in the past fifty-five years. parallel process along multiple axis the 1999 Lahore declaration, and Some participant noted that because and directions would pay dividends, identify new ones. Other suggestions of the US presence, there is now pres- said another participant. Agenda included a bilateral agreement on no- sure on Pakistan and India to talk. If items such as Siachen, expansion of offensive use and unilateral measures there is genuine interest in peace, trade ties, joint projects such as
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 29 Pugwash Meeting No. 282 pipelines, disputes over river waters, There were also differences on the Participants cross-border and cross-LOC flows of importance of public participation people, goods, and services, could and the role of public representatives Amb. Muhammad Afzal, Former Minis- thus raised be in tandem alongside in a future dialogue process. Warning ter (Technical), Permanent Mission of other more problematic issues, such against the destructive pressures of Pakistan in Geneva; Former Director as Kashmir and cross-border infiltra- public opinion, a participant believed General, Nuclear Fuels and Materials, tion. However, a participant warned that legislators would only play an and Former Secretary, Pakistan Atomic that the absence of progress on core obstructionist role because of a Energy Commission issues might, as in the past, inhibit propensity to exploit issues for elec- Dr. Samina Ahmed, Project Director the finalization or implementation of toral gains. Others, however, believed Afghanistan/South Asia, International other agreements, such as an expan- that parliamentarians and people-to- Crisis Group (ICG), Islamabad, Pakistan sion of trade relations. Most partici- people contacts had a constructive [formerly: Research Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, pants believed that preconditions role to play in broadening peace con- John F. Kennedy School of Government, would prove counterproductive. stituencies, crediting the recent visits Harvard University; Senior Research Some, however, warned that any cat- of parliamentarians, under the aus- Analyst, Institute of Regional Studies, astrophic event, such as a future ter- pices of the India-Pakistan People’s Islamabad]. E-mail: rorist strike, could lead to the Forum for Peace and Democracy, for [email protected] resumption of hostilities. their positive impact on media and Prof. Mohammad Hamid Ansari, Visiting There were some disagreements public opinion. Advocating public Professor, Academy of Third World Stud- about the sequence of the talks, reflect- education and access to information, ies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, ing India and Pakistan’s differences. a participant also pointed to the India [formerly: Vice Chancellor, Aligarh Muslim University, India; Permanent India favors a gradual approach, partly reservoir of goodwill among Indians, Representative of India to the United due to its past experiences at counter- Pakistanis and Kashmiris. Nations; Ambassador to UAE, Australia, productive summits such as Lahore There was, however, complete Afghanistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia]. E-mail: and Agra and also due to its desire to agreement on the need to create the [email protected] link the pace of negotiations with right environment for any future dia- Mr. Abdul Basit, Counsellor (Disarma- Pakistani progress in curbing cross- logue process by toning down hostile ment), Permanent Mission of Pakistan to border infiltration. On the other rhetoric and then negotiating in the United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland hand, Pakistan would prefer a high- earnest on all issues, including Kash- [formerly: Director (Disarmament), Min- level summit, hoping to regain some mir. There was general agreement istry of Foreign Affairs, Islamabad]. E-mail: [email protected] of the international credibility it has that a dialogue process would best lost as a result of the militancy in succeed if it were preceded by the Amb. Josef Bucher, Special Representa- Kashmir. At the workshop, some par- normalization of relations, the stabi- tive on Conflict Issues, Federal Depart- ment of Foreign Affairs, Bern, Switzer- ticipants advocated a bottom up lization of the security environment, land. E-mail: [email protected] approach, with discussion held first particularly along the LOC, followed at the level of senior middle ranking by negotiations to identify and to Mr. Pran Chopra, Member, Advisory Council, Centre for Policy Research, New officials, culminating in a summit assess areas of potential agreement as Delhi, India [formerly: Visiting Professor, level meeting only after concrete well as sustained talks on remaining Centre for Policy Research; Editorial agreements had been reached. Such a issues of discord. A premature blue- Director, Press Foundation of Asia, process, they said, would prevent print or roadmap would prove coun- Manila; Chief Editor, The Statesman domestic spoilers from derailing the terproductive. Solutions to long- Group, Calcutta, New Delhi]. E-mail: talks. Others warned that former dia- standing problems could only emerge [email protected] logue processes had made little out of a sustained process of negotia- Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- progress when they were left to offi- tions. Unless talks continued and General, Pugwash Conferences on Sci- cials such as Foreign Secretaries, momentum was maintained, a future ence and World Affairs; Professor of Mathematical Physics, University of adding that a summit meeting would dialogue process could once again Milan, Italy; Director, Program on Disar- provide the political push needed to stumble, bringing the two states back mament and International Security, Lan- attain concrete results. to square one. dau Network – Centro Volta, Como,
30 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 282
Italy [formerly: Secretary General, Union Maj.-Gen. (ret) Afsar Karim, Editor, Prof. Abdul Nayyar, Sustainable Devel- of Italian Scientists for Disarmament AAKROSH—Asian Journal on Terrorism opment Policy Institute, Islamabad, Pak- (USPID)]. E-mail: [email protected] and Internal Conflicts [formerly: Major- istan; on leave from the Physics Depart- General in the Indian Army; Member, ment, Quaid-i-Azam University, Amb. J.N. Dixit, former Foreign Secre- National Security Advisory Board; Editor, Islamabad. E-mail: [email protected] tary to the Government of India, as well Indian Defence Review Quarterly]. as former Ambassador of India to Dr. Nicole Perret, Département fédéral de E-mail: [email protected] Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc. la défense, de la population et des sports, Currently Professor in several universities Mr. Farooq M. Kathwari, Chairman, Bern, Switzerland,. E-mail: nicole.perret@ in India, as well as concurrent positions President and CEO, Ethan Allen Inc., dps.admin.ch in various think tanks in both multina- Danbury, CT, USA; Chairman, Kashmir Prof. Ramamurti Rajaraman, Professor tional corporations and academic institu- Study Group. E-mail: fkathwari@ethanal- of Theoretical Physics, School of Physical tions. E-mail: [email protected] (and) leninc.com Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, [email protected] Mr. Pratap Kaul, Retired Ambassador of New Delhi, India [formerly on the faculty Lt. Gen. (ret) Asad Durrani, recently India to the USA, and retired Cabinet at: The Indian Institute of Science, Banga- Ambassador of Pakistan to Saudi Arabia Secretary to the Government of India lore; The Institute for Advanced Study, [formerly: Director General, Inter-Ser- [also formerly: Finance Secretary, Min- Princeton; Delhi University; Cornell Uni- vices Intelligence (ISI); Commandant, istry of Finance; Defence Secretary, Min- versity, Ithaca]. E-mail: doug1968@ National Defence College; Ambassador istry of Defence, Gov’t of India] hotmail.com / [email protected] to Germany]. E-mail: [email protected] Amb. Aziz Ahmad Khan, Additional Sec- Adm. Laxminarayan Ramdas, Chair, (and) [email protected] retary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Islam- Pakistan-India Peoples Forum for Peace Mdm. Claire Galez, Director, Centre for abad, Pakistan. E-mail: azizahmad_khan & Democracy, Maharashtra, India [for- South Asian Studies (CSAS), Geneva, @yahoo.com merly: Chief of the Naval Staff, India Switzerland. E-mail : [email protected] (1990-93)]. E-mail: [email protected] Mr. Salman Khurshid, Member Working Dr. Jozef Goldblat (Sweden/Switzerland), Committee in charge of Northern East Hon. Maharajakrishna Rasgotra, Presi- Vice President, Geneva International States, Indian National Congress, New dent, ORF Institute of Asian Studies, Peace Research Institute (GIPRI), Delhi, India; President, Delhi Public New Delhi, India; Honorary Advisor, Geneva, Switzerland; Consultant, United School Society [formerly: Minister of Rajiv Gandhi Foundation; Co-Chairman, Nations, Geneva [formerly: Director, State, External Affairs, Government of Indo-French Forum; Member, India-Sri Arms Control & Disarmament India; Liu Po Shan Lecturer in Law, Lanka Foundation [formerly: Member, Programme, SIPRI (1969-89)]. E-mail: Oxford University]. E-mail: tipu_in@ Government of India’s National Security [email protected] yahoo.com Advisory Board (2002-2001); Visiting Professor, JNU, and Regents’ Professor, Mr. Ejaz Haider, Foreign/Op-Ed Editor, Dr. Mauro Mantovani, Arms Control UCLA (1987); Foreign Secretary to the The Daily Times, Lahore, Pakistan ; and Disarmament Policy, Security and Government of India (1982-85); Ambas- News Editor, The Friday Times Defence Policy, Defence, Civil Protection, sador of India to France (1979-82), the [formerly : Visiting Fellow, Foreign Pol- Sports General Secretariat, Bern, Switzer- Netherlands (1977-79), Nepal (1973-76); icy Studies, The Brookings Institution land. E-mail: mauro.mantovani@ High Commissioner of India to the UK (Nov 2002-March 2003); Ford Scholar, gs-vbs.admin.ch (1988-90); Deputy Chief of Mission, Program in Arms Control, Disarmament Prof. Maurizio Martellini, Secretary Indian Embassy, Washington DC (1969- and International Security (ACDIS), Univ. General, Landau Network-Centro Volta 72)]. E-mail: [email protected] Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (1997]. (LNCV), Como, Italy; Professor of E-mail : [email protected] Mr. Abbas Rashid, Coordinator, Society Physics, University of Insubria, Como, for the Advancement of Education, Dr. Rodney W. Jones, President, Policy Italy. E-Mail: maurizio.martellini@ Lahore, Pakistan; Columnist, Daily Architects International, Reston, VA, centrovolta.it Times, Lahore [formerly: Instructor in USA. E-mail: [email protected], Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Talat Masood, Columnist International Relations, Civil Services http://www.policyarchitects.org and Commentator on national, regional Academy (Federal Government); Con- Gen. (ret) Jehangir Karamat, former and global issues, Islamabad, Pakistan tributing Editor, The Muslim (national Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff and Chief [formerly: retired Lt. General; Secretary, daily newspaper); Acting Editor, The of Army Staff, Pakistan Defence Production, Ministry of Defence; Frontier Post (National daily news- Chairman and Chief Executive, Pakistan paper)]. E-mail: [email protected] Office: IPRI, Islamabad, Pakistan. Ordnance Factories; Chairman, allied E-mail: [email protected] Brig. Naeem Salik, Director, Arms Con- companies; Member, Public Account trol & Disarmament Affairs, Strategic committee]. E-mail: [email protected] Plans Division, Joint Staff Headquarters,
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 31 Pugwash Meeting No. 282
Rawalpindi, Pakistan; Visiting Professor, Member, Indian Pugwash Society [for- Defence & Strategic Studies Department, merly : Director, Institute for Defence Working Papers Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, . Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi ; E-mail: [email protected] Director (Operations), Air Headquarters, J.N. Dixit, “Synopsis of Presentation on New Delhi; Member, National Security South Asian Security” Hon. Abdul Sattar, Member, Sub-Com- Advisory Board]. E-mail: jasjit_singh@ mission on Promotion and Protection of Lt. Gen. (ret.) Asad Durrani, “Kashmir: vsnl.net (and) [email protected] Human Rights, Palais des Nations, Confrontation to Cooperation” Geneva [former Foreign Minister of Pak- Mr. Ravinder Pal Singh (India), Senior Jozef Goldblat, “Confidence Building istan, Islamabad]. E-mail: sattar@ Research Fellow, Center for Pacific Asia Measures in South Asia” comsats.net.pk Studies (CPAS), Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden . E-mail: ravi.singh@ Pervez Hoodbhoy, “Rethinking Amb. Prakash Shah, Member, Indo-Japan orient.su.se Kashmir” Eminent Persons Group; Director, Pathfinders International, Watertown, Prof. Jean-Pierre Stroot (Belgium/ Farooq Kathwari, “Kashmir: A road map MA, USA; Advisor, Dodsal Group, Dubai Switzerland), retired Physicist; Geneva to peace” [formerly: Permanent Representative of Pugwash Office; President of the Board of Salman Khurshid, “The Milestone India to the United Nations, New York & the Geneva International Peace Research beyond War and Words – Some Crucial Geneva; Ambassador to the Committee Institute (GIPRI), Geneva, Switzerland Questions about the Indo-Pak Conflict” on Disarmament, Geneva; Ambassador [formerly: Director of Research, IISN, of India to Japan; Special Envoy of the Belgium; Research Associate, CERN]. Lt. Gen. (ret.) Talat Masood, “Strategy of UN Secretary general for Iraq]. E-mail: E-mail:[email protected] Waging Peace” [email protected] H.E. Mr. Shaukat Umer, Ambassador R. Rajaraman, “Towards De-Nuclearisa- Dr. Toufiq Siddiqi, President, Global and Permanent Representative of Pak- tion of South Asia” Environment & Energy in the 21st Cen- istan, Genevaa, Switzerland, . E-mail: Abdul Sattar, “Pugwash Dialogue” tury (GEE-21), Honolulu, Hawaii, USA; [email protected] Affiliate Graduate Faculty, Geography Waheguru Pal Sidhu, “Terrible Tuesday Department, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu PUGWASH STAFF and Terrorism in South Asia” [formerly: Regional Adviser on Energy, Claudia Vaughn, Pugwash Conferences, United Nations ESCAP; Senior Fellow, via della Lungara 10, I-00165 Rome, East-West Center, Honolulu]. E-Mail: Italy, Tel. (++39-06) 687-2606, Fax: [email protected] (++39-06) 687-8376, Mobile: (++39-333) Dr. Waheguru Pal S. Sidhu, Professor of 456-6661, E-mail: [email protected] International Relations, Delhi University, New Delhi, India; Joint Co-editor, Inter- national Peacekeeping (since January 2001); Member, Editorial Board, Global Governance (since January 2001); Core Group Member, Mountbatten Centre International Missile Forum [formerly: Senior Associate, International Peace Academy (IPA), New York, NY; Consul- tant, United Nations Panel of Govern- mental Experts on Missiles (2001-2002); MacArthur Research Fellow, St. Anthony’s College, Oxford (1999-2000); Warren Weaver Fellowship for Interna- tional Security, Rockefeller Foundation, New York (1997-1998); Research Associ- ate, International Institute for Strategic Studies, London (1996-1997)]. E-mail: [email protected] Air Commodore Jasjit Singh, Director, Centre for Strategic and International Studies ; Member, Pugwash Council;
32 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 PUGWASH MEETING No. 283
Pugwash Workshop on Preserving the Non-Weaponisation of Space Castellón de la Plana, Spain, 22–24 May 2003
Report have secure and equitable access and space-based interceptor test bed by use, and for space to be secure from 2008. Participants were concerned by Robert Schingler, threats. As the meeting progressed, that this test bed would set a danger- Will Marshall, George Whitesides the participants discussed policy ini- ous precedent and open the door to and Bojan Pecnik tiatives that could increase the visibil- further testing, development and ity and international debate on space deployment of space weapons. This his first in a planned series of weapons. The meeting closed with potential link between missile defense Pugwash workshops on discussion of ways forward toward and space weapons – with NMD Tspace weapons was hosted by the goal of maintaining the non- serving as the justification for space the Bancaixa fundacío Caixa Castelló weaponisation of space, including weapons deployment — was raised at the Centro Internacional Bancaja increasing the knowledge base on the repeatedly during the workshop. para la Paz y el Desarrollo in Castel- topic, and greater international col- The United States and former lón de la Plana, Spain. Particular laboration on the issue, including the Soviet Union spent many billions of thanks are due to Prof. Federico Gar- potential role of Pugwash in that dollars seeking to develop space cía-Moliner and the Spanish process. weapons over the past four decades. Pugwash Group for their assistance Other nations with access to space, A window of opportunity and hospitality in organizing the including India and China, have the meeting. The workshop was held during a capability to deploy limited but effec- Thirty one people (including period when there is a near-term tive space weapons as well. Multiple a large number of International prospect of deploying weapons in potential systems were discussed, Student/Young Pugwash participants) space for the very first time. As part including space-deployed kinetic from 17 countries attended the work- of its National Missile Defense weapons, earth- and space-based shop, by invitation and in their per- (NMD) program, the US administra- anti-satellite (ASAT) systems, and sonal capacity. This report of the tion has stated its intent to launch a Earth- and space-deployed laser workshop is the sole responsibility of the rapporteurs, and while it reflects the broad array of issues discussed, does not necessarily represent con- sensus on all points.
Abstract The workshop focused on understanding the current legal, tech- nical and geopolitical issues surrounding the prospects of space weaponisation. The motivation of these discussions is to ensure space security: that is, to enable space to
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 33 Pugwash Meeting No. 283 weapons. From the discussions, it space weapons programs. Citing the scientific, economic, military, com- was clear that certain types of basic adage, “follow the money,” partici- mercial, and governmental perspec- space weapons could be deployed in pants noted the importance of US tives from the entire international the near-term. Congressional oversight of budgets community which has become so Legal regimes governing space relating to space weapons develop- dependent on space activities. were discussed, including the Outer ment, particularly as it relates to While the technical feasibility of Space Treaty, the ABM treaty, and Bush administration plans for kinetic energy and other types of the Treaty on Conventional Weapons deploying national missile defense. space weapons is very likely within in Europe. With the UN Conference While NMD plans project the the reach of many space-faring of Disarmament deadlocked on the deployment of a space interceptor nations, a more important question is issue of space weapons, the partici- test bed by 2008, current funding for their utility when compared with pants felt an urgency to approach this this program is relatively small. Con- earth or air-based alternatives. As an issue from many different angles and gress can strongly influence the pace example, space-based kinetic weapons involving many different constituen- would take longer to destroy their cies, including industry, NGOs, the Congress can strongly influence intended earth-based targets than scientific community, the military, the would strategically-located earth- the pace at which space general public and governments. Cre- based missile alternatives, with no ative approaches to the legal issues weapons are developed over significant additional energy or involving space activities will be the next several years. destructive power. called for, and are discussed below. Moreover, there are divisions Many participants remarked on within the US military on issues such the unique situation that space at which space weapons are devel- as weapons utility and cost-effective- weaponisation presents to organiza- oped over the next several years. ness, particularly as counter-measures tions like Pugwash. Unlike previous Workshop participants felt that against space weapons will be cheaper nuclear arms control efforts, the chal- informed dialogue with members of and technically simpler than the lenge (and opportunity) of space Congress and their staff will be criti- weapons they are designed to destroy. weapons is to prevent them from cal for developing a more informed Detailed analyses of several different being deployed in the first place and knowledge base on the issue and for types of space weapons and counter- to maintain the non-weaponised sta- coordinating efforts to fully evaluate measures are available in the work- tus of space. This is important both the military, political and economic shop papers. because of the short term ramifica- ramifications of deploying space Finally, however, the primary tions of weaponising space, and weapons. argument against the deployment of because once such weapons are space weapons remains that of their deployed, it will be difficult if not Building a knowledge base and potential for igniting a destabilizing impossible to return space to a zone consensus-building arms race in space. To that end, sev- free of weapons deployment. The Increasing the knowledge base on eral participants proposed that space- uniqueness of this situation (the only how space weapons could impact capable nations adopt a ‘no first comparable analogue is the Antarc- current and future uses of space was deployment’ pledge regarding space tic) calls for considered dialogue seen as an immediate next step by weapons. among all the parties utilizing space workshop participants. Recent and In the discussion of how to move on the full ramifications of deploying forthcoming analyses from the the debate forward, particularly with space weapons. RAND Corporation, the Stimson national governments, it was noted Center, the Council on Foreign Rela- that a key early step in the Ottawa US Congress and space weapons tions, and the Monterey Institute/ Process (the campaign to ban land- In order to allow sufficient time for Mountbatten Centre for mines) was one of NGOs doing much fully analyzing the ramifications of International Studies will need to be of the research and information gath- deploying space weapons, a critical augmented by additional informed ering. In that vein, participants dis- task will be to slow the funding for analysis covering a broad array of cussed ways compiling and sharing
34 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 283
change its position. Many workshop participants felt that the CD would not be helpful in this context, while others felt attempts should be made. Overall, the following options were raised: General Assembly Resolution: One avenue through which to gain international support and momentum – while not a formal treaty – would be the UN General Assembly. A non-binding UNGA resolution endorsing a non- interference policy with all satellites currently in space could logically be followed later by a UNGA resolution prohibiting ASAT testing.
Moratorium: An additional legal option to explore would be national Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) points its high-gain antenna towards the moratoria on space weapons. Under Earth (artist’s conception). NASA photo such a moratorium, states would pledge their intent not to be the first documents, for use by both the by the destabilizing consequences of to deploy space weapons or to fur- expert community and the general deploying space weapons. ther test destructive anti-satellite public, through websites, listservs, weapons. Space-faring nations initi- Legal options and other means. ating this pledge could invite other Once this information is com- Workshop participants engaged in states to join. Such states could then piled, and a mechanism is in place to extended discussion of potential legal decide to formalize this intent into a collect new information, the creation avenues for a treaty covering all non- treaty in the future. of documents needs to be aimed at nuclear space weapons (the Outer Debris Management: Space debris specific target audiences to raise Space Treaty of 1967 already management is a real concern to cur- awareness, promote dialogue and prohibits any space deployment of rent and future space activities, and improve the knowledge base. Various weapons of mass destruction, and could be a means of encouraging documents and analyses will not only also prohibits all other weapons from cooperation on legal space issues have differing levels of technical being deployed on the Moon and with the US, which already provides arguments, but will cover different other celestial bodies). Intermediate substantial leadership in this area. arguments and motivations impor- steps were discussed which could tant to the debate over weaponising build confidence between nations Protocol to the Outer Space Treaty: space. Especially important will be while creating the context for a com- A protocol to the OST explicitly ban- studies on the critical importance of mon viewpoint on space weapons. ning space weapons would be prefer- civilian space assets to many coun- One topic of vigorous debate was able to a treaty amendment, which tries and regions, especially in the whether the UN Conference on Dis- would risk opening a ‘Pandora’s box’ developing world, in the areas of armament (CD) was a potential of other treaty issues. It was also rec- resource management, education, venue for such a treaty. The US has ommended that Pugwash and other telecommunication, agricultural pro- blocked discussion of such an agree- NGOs seek to increase the number of duction, climate/disaster forecasting, ment for several years, and has yet to signatories to the OST in order to etc., and how these could be affected indicate any public willingness to universalize OST adherence. Mention
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 35 Pugwash Meeting No. 283
Estimates of Military and Civilian Spacecraft in Orbit the road.’ Efforts to identify shared For Selective Countries* concerns will be necessary if industry and the military are to be effectively 10000 Military Civilian brought into the debate on space 1350 850 weapons. 1000
106 A timely, consolidated effort 100 25 The international community must 21 20 17 10 9 10 be ready if and when the US becomes 10 8 5 4 (logarithmic scale) 3 open for a discussion of a treaty on Number of Satellites 2 1 space weapons. This must start with 1 a dissemination of appropriate infor-
0 0 mation globally to make the interna- 0 tional community well informed. Bringing together interested parties was thought to be one potential early (*approximately 500 spacecraft are thought to be currently active) role for Pugwash. Sources: UN Office of Outer Space Affairs Online Index of Objects Launced into Outer Space; Gunter's Space Page; Celestrak; Los Angeles Air Force Base Fact Sheets; Federation of American Scientists World Space Guide; "Russia's The international community also military satellites: Status and Prospects." IISS Strategic Comments, 7(6): July 2001; NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory needs to be more vocal on this issue, Mission and Spacecraft Library but they must take a practical approach to be heard. It was thought was made as well of seeking to build of particularly those nations, such as particularly important for the Euro- on obligations not to interfere with the US, able to deploy such weapons. pean Union to develop its own posi- national technical means of verifica- Unlike the Ottawa landmines treaty, tion on this important subject. While tion, as contained in agreements such which served a useful purpose even there is some interest about space as the Conventional Forces in Europe though rejected by the US, any space weaponisation within the European (CFE) Treaty, of which the US and 29 weapons treaty not drafted with Parliament, the European Commis- other countries are signatories. direct US involvement will be useless. sion has yet to state its position. The Prior to such efforts, it is essential current EU Green Paper on “Euro- Space Weapons Treaty: Most difficult now to increase international appre- pean space policy”, now undergoing in the current climate would be the ciation of the concept of space secu- public consultation prior to its final- drafting and adoption of a stand- rity that derives from the cooperative ization before the end of 2003, repre- alone treaty banning the development uses of space and not the deployment sents an ideal opportunity to address and deployment of space weapons. of space weapons. Other states must this gap. Major stumbling blocks identified take the initiative and bring the US The international scientific com- were those of crafting effective com- into discussions on these issues. As munity also has a key role to play in pliance mechanisms and being able to noted above, space debris is one exploring the effects of space wea- update the Treaty in light of changing avenue to instigate these discussions, pons on space science, exploration, technologies. While the positive expe- as the United States has taken leader- and research. Finally, the general rience of the Chemical Weapons ship in this area. Given that many public could be an important resource Convention was mentioned in both industry players are also defense for the overall process at the appro- regards, participants acknowledged providers, the issue of space debris is priate time. As the experience of the the difficulties involved, especially in a direct way to involve them as well. Ottawa Process demonstrated, a terms of dual-use weapons systems These discussions could evolve into well-known international spokes- (e.g., missile defense and anti-satellite). other shared concerns in space, such person on the dangers of space It was emphasized that legal steps as satellite crowding and collisions, weaponisation could help galvanize to ban space weapons should not be and might lead to the establishment public opinion and inspire grassroots taken without the direct involvement of more regulation beyond ‘rules of action on these issues.
36 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 283
The role of Pugwash Appendix A: The Way Forward for Pugwash There was a general consensus that Pugwash can play a valuable role in 1 Engage the US Congress in dialogue to reduce spending on space the process leading to guaranteeing weapons development prior to a critical debate. ‘space security’, in particular in improving the knowledge base 2 Build analytic knowledge base on space weapons through timely, well researched • Utility of space weapons reports given to the right authorities, and through meetings and • ASAT-DSAT and countermeasures discussions engaging policy makers. • Effect of space weapons, pro and con, on US conventional military A draft strategy for the steps that missions Pugwash and the wider community • Effect of space weapons on civil uses of space (debris management, might take on this issue was drafted orbital slots, liability, etc.) at the workshop and is attached as an appendix. There is much work to be 3 Increase attention of public/media/policymakers done in the next year, starting with • Use existing reports and increase their visibility expanding and disseminating timely • Describe nature of problem and possible solutions for assuring information about the current status space security for all space users of space weapons development and the implications of space weapons • High-profile spokesperson for public attention deployment on current and future • International space security summit international uses of space. National governments, in addition to the US 4Target Audiences Congress and administration, need to • US Military, Congress and the Bush administration be involved in debating the pros and • International space/scientific community cons of space weaponisation. As for Pugwash, there will be a • National Governments and the European Union working group on the Weaponisation • NGOs of Space and Missile Defense during • Space Providers (telecom industry) the 53rd Pugwash Conference in Hal- • Space consumers (those dependent on space for agriculture, ifax, Nova Scotia in July 2003, with resource management, education, environmental protection, map- further plans for workshops and per- ping, GPS) haps the convening of an international space summit on how • General Public the prospect of space weapons would unalterably change the character of A timeline for political/legal initiatives the space environment for the global • On-going work on CBMs (debris management, compliance community. issues, etc.) • Track II initiatives • Increase number of states parties (universal adherence) to the OST • UNGA resolution on non-interference with space assets, building on provisions currently in the CFE Treaty • UNGA Resolution prohibiting ASAT testing and deployment • Negotiate OST protocol prohibiting space weapons
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 37 Pugwash Meeting No. 283
Participants
Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell, Executive Director, Nations, Geneva [formerly: Director, Prof. Federico García-Moliner, Professor Pugwash Conferences on Science and Arms Control & Disarmament of Contemporary Science, University World Affairs, Washington, DC, USA Programme, SIPRI (1969-89)]. E-mail: “Jaume I”, Castellón de la Plana, Spain; [formerly: Associate Executive Officer, [email protected] Member, Academic Board, European American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Peace University, Castellón Branch; Vice- Dr. Laura Grego, Postdoctoral Fellow, Cambridge; Staff Aide, National Security President, IUPAP [formerly: Associate Global Security Program, Union of Con- Council, Washington, DC]. E-mail: Professor, University of Illinois; Professor, cerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, USA [email protected] Autonomous University of Madrid; [formerly : Scientist, High Energy Astro- Research Professor, Spanish Research Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- physics Division, Harvard-Smithsonian Council]. E-mail: [email protected] General, Pugwash Conferences on Sci- Center for Astrophysics]. E-mail: ence and World Affairs; Professor of [email protected] Dr. Götz Neuneck, Senior Fellow, IFSH, Mathematical Physics, University of Hamburg, Germany; Member, Pugwash Ms. Theresa Hitchens, Vice President, Milan, Italy; Director, Program on Disar- Council [formerly: Max-Planck-Society, Center for Defense Information, Wash- mament and International Security, Lan- Working group Starnberg]. E-mail: ington, DC, USA. E-mail: thitchens@ dau Network – Centro Volta, Como, [email protected] cdi.org Italy [formerly: Secretary General, Union Dr. Xavier Pasco, Strategic Research of Italian Scientists for Disarmament Dr. Rebecca Johnson, Executive Director, Foundation, Paris, France. E-mail: (USPID)]. E-mail: [email protected] The Acronym Institute for Disarmament [email protected] Diplomacy, London, UK; Board Member, Hon. Philip E. Coyle III, Senior Advisor, Educational Foundation for Nuclear Sci- Prof. Udipi Ramachandra (Ram) Rao, Center for Defense Information ence (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists); Chairman, Council of Physical Research [formerly: Assistant Secretary of Defense, Publisher, Disarmament Diplomacy. Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India, & Director, Operation Text and Evalua- E-mail: [email protected], [formerly: Chairman, Indian Space tion, US Department of Defense (1994- Research Organisation & Secretary, 2001); Associate Director, Lawrence Liv- Mr. Ian Kenyon, Visiting Senior Research Department of Space]. E-mail: ermore National Laboratory]. E-mail: Fellow, Mountbatten Centre for Interna- [email protected] [email protected] tional Studies, University of Southamp- ton, Highfield, Southampton, UK [for- Hon. John B. Rhinelander, Senior Coun- Mr. Fernando Davara, Director, Euro- merly: Executive Secretary, Preparatory sel, Shaw Pittman, Washington, DC, pean Union Satellite Centre, Madrid, Commission for the Organisation for the USA; President, Lawyers Alliance for Spain. E-mail: [email protected] Prohibition of Chemical Weapons World Security (LAWS); Director, Arms Mr. José Monserrat Filho, Editor of Jour- (OPCW PrepCom), The Hague, The Control Association (ACA) [formerly: nal of Science, a journal of the Brazilian Netherlands; HM Diplomatic Service]. Legal Adviser, US SALT I Delegation]. Society for the Advancement of Science, E-mail: iangriselda.kenyon@ E-mail: john.rhinelander@ Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. E-mail: btinternet.com shawpittman.com [email protected] (and) Mr. Bob Lawson, Senior Policy Advisor, Amb.Walter Jürgen Schmid, [email protected] Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Commissioner of the Federal Republic of Prof. Richard Garwin, Senior Fellow for Disarmament, Department of Foreign Germany for Arms Control and Disarm- Science and Technology, Council on For- Affairs and International Trade, Canada. ament, Federal Foreign Office, Berlin, eign Relations, New York, NY, USA ; E-mail: [email protected] Germany. E-mail: [email protected] IBM Fellow Emeritus ; Adjunct Professor Mr. Errol Levy, Seconded National Mr. Andrey Vinnik, Second Secretary, of Physics, Columbia University Expert, European Commission (DG Department for Security Affairs and Dis- [formerly : Chairman, US Department of Research), Brussels, Belgium [formerly: armament, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of State’s Arms Control and Nonprolifera- UK Institutional Marketing Manager, the Russian Federation, Moscow. E-mail: tion Advisory Board (ACNAB) (1993- Astrium Ltd., UK]. E-mail: errol.levy@ [email protected] 2001); Member of Committee and Panel cec.eu.int on Nuclear and Radiological Issues]. E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Yasunori Matogawa, The Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Dr. Jozef Goldblat (Sweden/Switzerland), Japan. E-mail: [email protected] Vice President, Geneva International Peace Research Institute (GIPRI), Geneva, Switzerland; Consultant, United
38 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 283
Participants Working Papers
STUDENT/YOUNG PUGWASH founder, Yuri’s Night [formerly: Board of Li Bin (China), “The Consequences of a PARTICIPANTS Trustees, Princeton University; Vice Presi- Space War” dent of Marketing, Zero Gravity Corpo- Ms. Jo Catena (UK), LLM Air and Space Philip Coyle (US) and John Rhinelander ration; Special Assistant to the President, Law, Leiden University, The Netherlands. (US), “Weapons in Space: The Urgent Orbital Sciences Corporation; MPhil., E-mail: [email protected] Need for Arms Control – Three Reasons remote sensing and GIS, Cambridge Uni- Why We Can’t Wait” Mr. Stuart Gill (Australia), PhD Candi- versity. E-mail: [email protected]. date, Department of Physics, Swinburne edu Richard Garwin (US), “Space Weapons: University of Technology, Australia. Not Yet” E-mail: [email protected] OBSERVER Theresa Hitchens (US), “Making Mr. William Marshall, PhD Student, Hon. Martha Krebs, Ph.D., President, Progress: Opportunities for Improving Department of Physics, University of Science Strategies, a consulting firm; Space Security” Oxford, UK; Founder, Oxford Student Member, Board of Trustees, Institute for Pugwash; Member, Institute of Physics. Defense Analyses; Member, National Rebecca Johnson (UK), “Missile Defense E-mail: [email protected] Research Council?s Board on Energy and to Space Weaponization: Implications for Environmental Systems [formerly: Associ- NATO Allies” Mr. Sethu Nandakumar (India), Depart- ate Vice Chancellor for Research UCLA; ment of Law, Coventry University, UK. Robert Lawson (Canada), “Space Founding Director, California NanoSys- E-mail: [email protected] Weapons: A Canadian Perspective” (oral tems Institute, UCLA & UC Santa Bar- presentation) Mr. Bojan Pecik (Croatia), PhD candi- bara; Assistant Secretary of Energy and date, Max Planck Institut für extrater- Director of the Office of Science (1993- William Marshall (UK), George restrische Physik, Germany. E-mail: 2000); Associate Director for Planning Whitesides (US), Robert Schingler (US), [email protected] and Development, DOE?s Lawrence and Andre Nilsen (Norway), “Space Berkeley National Laboratory (1983- Weapons: The Urgent Debate) Mr. Virgiliu Pop (Romania), Lecturer in 1993)] Space Law, University of Lille, France. Götz Neuneck (Germany), “Technical E-mail: [email protected] PUGWASH STAFF Issues in Restraining Space Weapons”
Mr. Alan Pritchard (UK), Satellite com- Claudia Vaughn, Pugwash Conferences, Xavier Pasco (France), “Le Space munications engineer, Swe-Dish Satellite via della Lungara 10, I-00165 Rome, Control: Un Enjeu de Puissance entre Systems AB, Sweden. E-mail: Italy, Tel. (++39-06) 687-2606, Fax: Les Etats-Unis et L’Europe ?” (oral [email protected] (++39-06) 687-8376, Mobile: (++39-333) presentation) Mr. Robert Schingler (USA), Research 456-6661, E-mail: [email protected] U.R. Rao (India), “Benefits of Space Scientist, NASA Ames Research Center, Security” MBA student, Georgetown University, Ivan Safranchuk (Russia), “Rationale for Washington, DC, USA. E-mail: robbie@ Space Weapons” unsgac.org Andrey Vinnik (Russia), “Russia’s Mr. Yuri Takaya, LL.M. of space law, Approaches to Strengthening the Interna- PhD Candidate (from Sept. 2003), Fac- tional Legal Regime Prohibiting the ulté Jean Monnet a Sceauz, Université Weaponization of Outer Space” Paris Sud-XI, Paris, France [formerly: Institute of Space and Astronautical Mikhail Vinogradov (Russia), “Space Science (ISAS), Japan] . E-mail: Without Arms” [email protected] Ms. Julia Tizard (UK), PhD candidate, Department of Planetary Geology, University of Manchester, UK. E-mail: [email protected] Mr. George T. Whitesides, Project Direc- tor, Permission to Dream Institution, Venice, CA, USA; Board of Directors, Space Generation Foundation; Co-
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 39 PUGWASH MEETING No. 285
9th Pugwash Workshop on the Middle East: The Arab (Saudi) Plan and the Third Party Role in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process Amman, Jordan, 30 May–1 June 2003
Report their commitment to the internation- was also pointed out that the Arab ally-sponsored Road Map. plan’s lack of details represents at the by Isabel Kershner with same time a weakness, since its Juliett Abu Iyun and The Saudi Initiative / Arab Plan implementation has yet to be defined, Paolo Cotta-Ramusino In February 2002, New York Times and a strength, since, as a general columnist Tom Friedman published idea, it may survive setbacks and he 9th Pugwash Workshop an article revealing an initiative by dark periods. on the Middle East convened Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdul- In the words of the participant Tin Amman, Jordan, from 30 lah, offering full Arab normalization who first presented the initiative at May-1 June 2003. The main agenda with Israel in exchange for full Israeli the Amman workshop, it essentially was to discuss the Arab (Saudi) pro- withdrawal from all the territories means “the Arabs abandoning their posal for a comprehensive Middle occupied in 1967. In late March, at claims of 1948”, and offers Israel East peace, the Road Map for a per- an Arab League summit in Beirut, all peace, security, full recognition and manent settlement of the Israeli- 22 member states of the Arab League normalization. Yet it has been noted Palestinian conflict, and ways of con- endorsed the initiative — now to be by several participants that despite necting the two. Some thirty known as the Arab Proposal. The the historic value of the Arab participants from around the Middle Arab Proposal elaborated somewhat Proposal, it was somehow met with East and several European Pugwash on the original simplicity of the Saudi indifference and possibly rejection on members gathered in the Jordanian formula, among other things includ- the Israeli side, even in the peace capital at what proved — by luck as ing a clause on the need to find a just camp and at the unofficial academic much as design — to be a most and agreed solution to the Palestinian level. Participants expressed their sur- opportune moment. Delayed from its refugee problem based on U.N. Reso- prise and disappointment at what original date of April 2003 because lution 194. (Passed in 1948, 194 stip- they saw as a confounding Israeli of the war in Iraq, the Pugwash meet- ulates that refugees wishing to return reaction, or non-reaction. It was also ing finally took place during a period to their homes and live in peace noted that the US did not pay partic- of renewed expectations for change should be permitted to do so at the ular attention to the Arab plan, and in the dynamics of the Middle East, earliest opportunity.) did not make serious efforts to and just days before U.S. President There was little doubt among the include it effectively in the Road George Bush arrived in the region for participants that the Arab plan repre- Map. the June 3rd Sharm el-Sheikh summit sents an historical breakthrough. Other participants noted that the and the June 4th Aqaba Summit. In Simply the idea of bringing 22 Arab Saudi initiative had actually garnered Aqaba, in the presence of President countries together with the prospect wide support in Israeli public opinion Bush and his host, Jordan’s King of offering a final peace settlement in polls, but that the Beirut Summit and Abdullah, the Israeli Prime Minister the Middle East, where Arab Coun- Arab Proposal had simply been over- Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Prime tries could live together with Israel, is whelmed by events. The Beirut sum- Minister Mahmoud Abbas pledged a radical departure from the past. It mit coincided with the Park Hotel
40 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 285
Passover Eve suicide bombing in about its legitimacy. Netanya, which killed 29 and served Other participants as the catalyst for Israel’s Operation stressed that, for the Defensive Shield, a military reinva- first time, the Arab sion of the Palestinian cities of the Proposal, endorsed by West Bank. all 22 Arab League Some participants pointed to the states, had called for an general Israeli skepticism about peace “agreed” solution to Secretary General Paolo Cotta-Ramusino (4th from left) and plans at the time. The Israeli peace the refugee question, Gabriel Baramki (fifth from left) meet with Palestinian Authority President Yasir Arafat (January 2003). camp, the “wounded soldiers of meaning agreed by peace” in one participant’s words, Israel too. This, they had been on the defensive since the said, was a tremendously significant altogether. It was also pointed out, collapse of the Camp David process change signaling a pragmatic however, that the process is impor- in 2000. One participant pointed to approach to solving the problem. tant: the Arab Proposal leaves the Saudi and Arab reluctance to launch Others posited that while the right of process of getting to the end state the plan with a grand gesture. One return issue is currently exploited by unexplained. There is a need to con- participant said that if Arab leaders interested parties, it is possible to nect the Arab plan more effectively had emulated Anwar Sadat, and pre- reach an agreed solution to the with the ongoing peace process, so as sented the plan in the Israeli parlia- refugee issue that can satisfy both to maximise the Arab countries con- ment, this might have led to a sides. It was also pointed out that no tributions to the process. stronger psychological breakthrough counteroffer to the Arab plan has yet Asked how the Saudi initiative on the Israeli side, but that “staying been made by Israel; Israel has not was received by Saudi public opinion, in Riyadh” won’t do. Others noted made an effort so far to address the a participant responded that the Arab that when public Arab diplomacy Arab world. public is as untrusting of Israel’s was most needed, during the Camp There was a feeling that the his- intentions as Israel is of Arab inten- David summit of 2000, it wasn’t toric significance of the Arab tions. “People want to know what forthcoming, and when it came it Proposal, and of all 22 Arab states they will get in return for recognizing was not so needed. Furthermore, the “opening the door”, had been, for Israel,” he said. He noted, however, reference to the refugee issue and the time being, missed, but there was that the people would support a just, U.N. Resolution 194 signals to most a general consensus that a positive comprehensive settlement. Nobody Israelis, rightly or wrongly, the future evolution was not at all to be now speaks about eliminating Israel, demand for 4 million Palestinian ruled out. One participant stressed he said, but about the need for a refugees to have the right to return to the importance of the fact that Palestinian state. Israel, effectively threatening the Jew- despite all the difficulties of the past The workshop participants were ish nature of the state in the future year, not one Arab state had asked to asked to propose ways of re-launch- and canceling out the point of a two- have its signature withdrawn from ing and presenting the Arab Proposal state solution. (One participant noted the proposal. to public opinion in an effective way. that a subsequent resolution at the Some participants noted that after Perhaps, with the war in Iraq over, Beirut summit reaffirmed the years of Israelis and Palestinians get- there could be an opportunity to refugees’ right of return which is ting bogged down in process, and not breathe new energy into it. There rejected almost across the board in reaching peace, the Arab Proposal were suggestions to use the media Israel). Moreover, it was noted that offers the advantage of laying out the and one participant proposed that the violence of the past two and a end game, giving an incentive for perhaps others might consider Israel half years had not only weakened the both sides to take whatever steps nec- attending some events at the Arab peace camp in Israel, by reinforcing essary. There is of course a distinct League as observers if not the Sharon government line, but had benefit in the idea of jumping straight participants. brought Israel back to dealing with to the end state, and telescoping the One participant stressed that it is existential questions and questions interim stages or eliminating them not only Israeli public opinion that
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 41 Pugwash Meeting No. 285 matters, and that the daily killing of coexistence is very much an idea to tinian state and resolving all the out- Palestinians broadcast on Arab TV which Pugwash could contribute. standing issues, including the Pales- screens only heightens the anti-Israel It was generally clear that in tinian refugee problem, by 2005. The sentiment in Arab countries. Others order to terminate what one partici- Saudi-Arab Proposal is cited as one cited the occupation itself, the build- pant called the “war process”, of the bases, along with U.N. Resolu- ing of settlements in the 1967 terri- namely to end the occupation and the tions 242, 338 and 1397, of the plan. tory, and the lack of freedom of hostilities of various extremist Participants listed some new con- movement for Palestinians, as factors groups, better communication ditions that might bode well for the that underline these sentiments and between the Arab and Israeli govern- Road Map. Among them, the new undermine the possibility of making ments and public is needed. An environment in the region after the further gestures to Israel. Under these emphasis was put on the need to tone war in Iraq, and the fact that the U.S. circumstances, one noted, it is hard down the harsh rhetoric and the gen- is becoming “part” of the Middle to get Arab civil society to engage. eral tone of hostility in the media as East (one participant noted that there One participant warned that well as in public statements. are as many U.S. soldiers in the given the demographics in the region region as there are people in Qatar); — by 2010, according to demogra- The Road Map the need for the U.S. to close the phers’ projections, the Palestinian The Road Map toward a Permanent “legitimacy gap” with the U.N. Secu- population will equal the Jewish pop- Two-State Solution to the Israeli- rity Council in the wake of the war; ulation in the area of Mandatory Palestinian Conflict, sponsored by and also the now-proven ability of Palestine — and given the prolifera- the “Quartet” of the U.S, the U.N., the Egyptian and Jordanian peace tion of Israeli settlement building in the E.U. and Russia, was drafted in treaties with Israel to survive even in the 1967 territories, the “clock is 2002 but only presented to the Israeli adverse circumstances. ticking” on the two-state solution. and Palestinian sides more recently. It Others underlined the fragility of As for what to do to move was formally launched in Aqaba on the process and the ever-present beyond statements against settlement June 4, 2003. The Road Map envis- threat of it being derailed by even one expansion and the occupation, one ages a three-phased process that can particularly deadly terror attack. If participant suggested enlarging the be summed up as follows. In the first the security situation cannot be stabi- Israeli-Palestinian Peace Coalition, a phase, there would be a Palestinian lized on the ground, according to local initiative that issues joint state- declaration and measures taken for a Phase One of the map, then there will ments and advertisements in the cessation of violence and the two be no Phase Two or Three, it was Israeli and Palestinian press. It was sides would take steps to keep calm noted. It was also noted that the Road suggested that like-minded people on the ground and get back to the Map document is full of contradic- from the Arab states could be situation prior to the outbreak of the tory points and at times ambiguous brought into the coalition. One par- Intifada in September 2000. The statements, leaving open the possibil- ticipant agreed in principle but noted Palestinians would carry out internal ity of both confusion and flexibility. that the current circumstances could reforms, while Israel would desist One of the innovations — and make extending the peace coalition from actions that might undermine perhaps the main innovation of the “a little premature.” the stabilization process, remove ille- first phase of the Road Map — is the On the other side there was a large gal settlement outposts in the West inclusion of an international moni- consensus in the group on the need Bank and implement a settlement toring mechanism. It was noted, for extending dialogue to all coun- freeze. An international monitoring however, that this crucial aspect is tries in the region, and for enlarging mechanism would be set up to left vague, with only a brief mention the network, particularly on security observe implementation. The second in the Road Map document, and issues. The idea of providing a interim phase envisages a provisional needs to be clarified urgently. regional forum where people from all Palestinian state within tempo- A discussion about monitoring countries could participate and dis- rary borders, and the third phase followed, where ideas were discussed cuss security problems and ways to envisages a final negotiated settle- concerning joint Israeli-Palestinian improve the perspectives of peaceful ment ending with a permanent Pales- and third-party monitoring. A possi-
42 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 285 ble role of Arab countries in the mon- of opportunity regarding U.S. designed by Israeli strategists as a itoring process has been mentioned; engagement, with the U.S. election security measure has since been but the concerns from all sides were campaign due to start in a few “hijacked by the right” in Israel, somehow stronger than the motiva- months time; the “war process” of according to one participant, and tions to support such an idea. extremists on both sides; and the now seems designed to mark political A debate ensued about the disad- need to prevent a quick Israeli reac- borders along the lines of 42 percent vantages and possible advantages of tion to possible terror attacks. of the West Bank envisioned in the interim Phase Two of the map. Keys to success come in the form Sharon’s supposed map. Ideas were There is clearly a danger that the of the degree to which Mahmoud raised to try to incorporate the wall process will get bogged down in a Abbas’s government manages to sta- issue into the Road Map and create long set of negotiations for a tempo- bilize the security situation on the some kind of linkage between the rary state in only some 42-52 percent Palestinian side; of capacity building building of the wall and an improve- of the West Bank and in the Gaza and unifying the Palestinian security ment in security, according to a for- Strip, and a danger that it will never forces under one central command; mula of no bombers, no wall. One move beyond the interim phase. and of Israel allowing the Palestinian participant said there should be a Some participants argued in favor of fence, but that the fence should be trying to eliminate Phase Two, while built along the 1967 lines, rather others argued that it is only this if the Palestinian Authority has than inside the West Bank; another interim phase, which apparently to take the responsibility of ending suggested that if the parties proceed dovetails with Israeli Prime Minister along the Road Map, the wall might violence on the Palestinian side, Sharon’s presumed territorial vision, become redundant. that has allowed the present Israeli it should possess the instruments The need to end violence was government to accept and adopt the to enforce the law. stressed many times during the meet- Road Map. ing. A point was made that if the Among the ideas of how to avoid Palestinian Authority has to take the the Road Map ending in Phase Two side “space for mistakes” even if responsibility of ending violence on was a suggestion that most of Phase Mahmoud Abbas manages to reach a the Palestinian side, it should possess Three should be negotiated by the ceasefire with the Hamas opposition the instruments to enforce the law. It time of Phase Two’s implementation. and other radical groups. was stressed that during the last two It was noted that the Arab world A participant stated that there is a and half years the structure and the could play a major role in the context need to define violence; that for equipment of the Palestinian law of an international conference, also Israelis, it means suicide bombings, enforcement institutions have been de stipulated in the Road Map, to mini- while for Palestinians, the facto disbanded. mize the “dangers” of Phase Two, occupation, settlement building and and there could be “interlock” — Israel’s construction of a separation The role of the U.S. and U.S. memorandums by Phase Two wall are equally violent acts. other parties relating to the next stage ahead. As The issue of Israel’s unilateral It was agreed that it is crucial to keep one participant noted, if there is no planning and construction of a sepa- the U.S. engaged in the Road Map Phase Two, there is no Sharon; and if ration wall between the West Bank process if it is to have any chance of no Phase Three, no Palestinians. and Israel was raised, even though it success. There were suggestions to Therefore, participants argued, there is not referred to in the Road Map. hold the next Pugwash meeting in is a need to provide sufficient incen- The wall, or fence, was first Washington. Washington, tives and sanctions to ensure that the proposed, and gained great popular- participants said, needs to hear more scope of Phase Two will be limited in ity in Israel, as an answer to keeping from the peace camp in the Middle time, if it can’t be eliminated out suicide bombers. It is vehemently East. The suggestion, though, has altogether. opposed by the Palestinians who fear been considered impractical for a Risks to the process come in the being fenced into enclaves under number of reasons (financial, organi- form of the possibly limited window Israeli control. But what was first zational, visa problems).
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 43 Pugwash Meeting No. 285
The importance of the European parallel unofficial NGO summits, It was noted that Israel’s official role, as a facilitator in Track Two and like the one at Durban that was policy since 1983 has been that the back-channel talks, was also noted. deemed by many participants to have parties will work towards a Nuclear- But it was also pointed out that the been more effective than the official Free Zone in the Middle East, the end U.S. role in the Road map tends to be U.N. conference. It was noted that game being full peace including mutual dominant, putting the other three reform is already underway in the verification. Several participants partners in a more shady region. Arab League, and that it will noted that what appears to be a selec- Questions were raised about certainly allow for more interaction tive approach to WMD by the United reform in the Arab world, and what with civil society in the future. States is a cause of resentment in the effect U.S. policies in the region and The question was posed whether Middle East. They said they would the Middle East peace process might U.S. intervention in the region helps prefer to see a regional approach. have on Arab reform movements. de-radicalization or has the opposite Others stated that Israel still has a One participant noted that while effect. Some participants noted that high threat perception, and that its internal pressures lead to real domes- the U.S. is viewed as using military fears and existential concerns about a tic reform in the region, outside pres- intervention and caring less about nuclear Iran, Al-Qaeda and North sure leads to cosmetic reform only. what happens next. It was posited Korea as an exporter should be con- Internal reform is subject to different that Afghanistan has not seen free- sidered. One participant asserted that factors in different countries. “To say dom or democracy since the U.S. this is not the right time to deal with that Turkey, Israel and Djibouti are campaign there, and is arguably the issue. “Just when Israel is being the same is a mistake,” stated one worse off now than it was under the asked to take risks in the peace participant. As for whether Israeli- Taliban. “The U.S. is good at inter- process, you can’t ask it at the same Palestinian peace would help reform vening militarily but not at managing time to give up what it considers to and reduce radicalism in the Arab conflict,” one participant concluded. be its insurance policy,” he said. world, it was noted that the Israeli- Another gave a detailed overview Those who are interested in Israel Palestinian conflict is one important of Iraq since the war, arguing among becoming nuclear-free, said another, factor encouraging radicalization but other things that U.S. strategy is to should support the U.S. in its cam- that the factors vary from country to bring down the price of oil, thereby paigns against “rogue states.” country. In the case of Egypt, one cutting billions of dollars from the One participant responded that participant noted, “Did it become U.S. state budget. Participants noted he found what he was hearing “not more democratic after peace with that the recent decision to disband comforting” and that he was Israel than before, when it was the 400,000 members of the Iraqi perplexed by “Israeli exceptionalism” engaged in an existential conflict? army, and to fire the staff of numer- as a country that has both superpower Yes, in terms of political parties, an ous ministries in Iraq, will only add guarantees and a secret stock of independent judiciary, the press and to local resentment against the Amer- WMD. Several participants pointed so on. Did it become democratic in a icans. While the U.S. invaded Iraq out that Iraq had been invaded by the Western sense? No.” under the banner of combating ter- United States on the mere suspicion A participant suggested that the rorism, one noted, it could have just of possessing WMD, as opposed to Arab League should become more the opposite effect. other countries, such as Israel, that open to working with civil society are known to possess WMD. Regard- and NGOs, to allow them to interact A Nuclear Free Zone in the ing the renewed U.S. attentions with Arab governments. There were Middle East? directed at Iran and its nuclear pro- also suggestions that the Arab League One participant suggested that if the gram, it was stated that U.S. pressure could become more of a forum for subject at hand is comprehensive on Iran might push the reformists inter-Arab dialogue, or Arab-U.S. peace, there should be room to talk and the conservatives there together and Arab-European dialogue, on about a nuclear free zone in the Mid- in a “national preservation effort.” broad issues such as the clash of civi- dle East, especially in the aftermath Iran, participants stressed, is not Iraq, lizations. It was suggested that the of the war in Iraq and the changed but is a much larger and more com- Arab League should consider holding strategic environment for Israel. plex country with a much higher
44 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 285 degree of democracy and debate, and Participants with its own internal dynamics and debate on national policies. ISRAEL Mr. Jeremy Issacharoff, Deputy Director Environmental cooperation Ms. Juliette Abu-Iyun, Attorney, General for Strategic Affairs, Ministry of PANORAMA, Ramallah, West Bank, Foreign Affairs, Israel [formerly: Head, One participant gave a presentation Palestine [formerly: Researcher, Center Regional Security and Arms Control; based on the negative results of the for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Mid- Minister Counsellor, Embassy of Israel, U.N. Environmental Project: Occu- dle East Program, Brussels (June-Decem- Washington, DC] pied Palestinian Territories and the ber 2002); Legal Consultant, Human Ms. Isabel Kershner, Senior Editor (Mid- need for cooperation in rehabilitating Rights Watch, New York and Brussels dle East), The Jerusalem Report, the Palestinian infrastructure. Some (January 2001-June 2002); Visiting Jerusalem, Israel [formerly: Political Risk Scholar, Midwest Academy, Chicago environmental issues, such as water Analyst for the Middle East, Control (January-December 2000); Projects Risks Information Service (part of the and wastewater, require a high level Director, The International Center for Control Risks Group, London)] of cooperation. There is an initiative Peace in the Middle East, Tel-Aviv (Octo- underway to set up joint expert teams ber 997-November 1999); Attorney, Mr. Daniel Levy, Political Advisor to Yossi Beilin, Economic Cooperation to deal urgently with these issues. Hecht-Peles Law Firm, November 1994- August 1997)] Foundation (ECF), Tel Aviv, Israel Workshop recommendations Mr. Yossi Alpher, Coeditor, Gen. Baruch Spiegel, retired General in the IDF, currently Consultant, Economic In summing up the workshop, partic- bitterlemons.org, an Israeli-Palestinian Cooperation Foundation (ECF), Tel Aviv, ipants supported the idea of creating internet-based dialogue project; Indepen- dent Writer/Consultant and Director, The Israel [formerly : Deputy Coordinator of a network of people around the Political Security Domain [formerly: government activities in the Wet Bank region interested in security affairs in Director, Jaffee Center for Strategic Stud- and Gaza ; Head of IDF Liaison the Middle East. It was suggested ies, Tel Aviv University] unit/peace-keeping operations ; Head of that Pugwash could serve as an incu- the Israeli delegation of the monitoring Mr. Yossi Beilin, Economic Cooperation group in Lebanon] bator to enlarge the Israeli-Palestin- Foundation (ECF), Israel ian peace coalition; to exchange Dr. Aharon Zohar, Consultant, Regional Gen. (ret.) Shlomo Brom, Senior information; and to host dialogue and Environmental Planning, Carmei- Research Associate, The Jaffee Center for Yosef, Israel [formerly : Director, Ash- that may clarify what can, and can- Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv, Israel dod Regional Association for Environ- not, be realistically done in various [formerly: Deputy for Security Policy of mental Protection] countries to promote peace, and to the National Security Advisor (in the lay out honestly, behind closed doors, National Security Council; Director of P ALESTINE what the limitations are. It has been Strategic Planning in the Planning Branch Mr. Samih Abed, Deputy Minister, Min- of the IDF GHQ] pointed out that Pugwash activities istry of Planning; Professor, Bir Zeit Uni- can help not only in the development Prof. Galia Golan-Gild, Professor of Gov- versity, School of Architecture of the Palestinian - Israeli dialogue or ernment, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Mr. Daoud Barakat, Senior Assistant Herzlia, Israel; Professor Emerita, the Arab - Israeli dialogue, but also in Head, Department of Refugees, PLO Department of Political Science, Hebrew the area of inter-Arab dialogue and [formerly: Permanent Observer of Pales- University of Jerusalem [formerly: Dar- tine at the UN in Geneva; PLO Represen- communication. win Professor of Soviet and East Euro- tative in Austria, the Soviet Union, etc.] It will be important to work also pean Studies; Chair, Department of Politi- in the direction of crisis prevention cal Science, Hebrew University of Prof. Gabriel Baramki (Canada/Palestine), Consultant to the and to suggest ways of establishing Jerusalem] Palestinian Ministry of Higher Education, multinational teams to deal with the Dr. Yair Hirschfeld, Director General, Jerusalem; President, Palestinian Council risk of insurgency and ways to wind Economic Cooperation Foundation for Justice and Peace [formerly: it down before it reaches a critical (ECF), Tel-Aviv, Israel; Professor of Mid- Member, Pugwash Council; Acting dle East History, Haifa University, and an stage. Some participants suggested President, Birzeit University; Secretary- expert in international relations and con- for the next meeting a more detailed General, Palestinian Council for Higher flict resolution [formerly: initiated the Education] and organized agenda. More frequent Oslo channel and led the Oslo negotia- meetings were also recommended. tions in their first unofficial stage]
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 45 Pugwash Meeting No. 285
Mr. Yasser Mohammad Hafez Dajani Development (July 1999-Sept. 1999); EUROPE (Jordan/Palestine), Policy Advisor, Nego- Minister of Social Development and Min- Ms. Carin Atterling Wedar, Lector, Theo- tiations Support Unit, Negotiations ister of Administrative Development logical Faculty, University of Gothenburg; Affairs Department, Palestine Liberation (March-July 1999)] Secretary-General, Swedish Initiative for Organization, Ramallah, West Bank Dr. Rateb Sweiss, Deputy Dean, Higher Peace, Security and International Rela- (main area of responsibility is the Education and Training, Diplomacy Insti- tions (SIPSIR), Stockholm; Member, “Security File” pertinent to Final Status tute, Amman, Jordan Swedish Pugwash Group Negotiations with Israel) Mr. Ashraf Zaytoon, Foreign Office, Prof. Francesco Calogero, Professor of Dr. Riad Malki, Director of Panorama Amman, Jordan Theoretical Physics, University of Rome (Center for the Dissemination of Democ- “La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy [formerly: racy and Community Development—a SAUDI ARABIA Secretary-General (1989-97), Pugwash Palestinian NGO), Ramallah, Palestine; Dr. Ali Shwel Al-Garni, President, The Conferences on Science and World Director, Steering Committee Member of Affairs; Chairman, Pugwash Council; Orient House, E. Jerusalem; Vice-Presi- Saudi Association for Media & Commu- nication, Riyad, Saudi Arabia Member (1982-92), Governing Board, dent, Palestinian Council for Peace and SIPRI] Justice [formerly: Head, Department of Mr. Anwar Eshki, Advisor to the Saudi Civil Engineering, Birzeit University] Cabinet, Riyad, Saudi Arabia Dr. Janiki Cingoli, Centro Italiano per la Pace in Medio Oriente (CIPMO), Milan, Mr. Michael Tarazi (USA/Palestine) Dr. Tayseer B. Al Khunaizi, General Italy Director, Dar Al-Andalus Economic & JORDAN Management Consultancy, Dammam, Ms. Karin Roxman, Deputy Head of Gen. (ret.) Mansour Abo Rashid, Saudi Arabia [formerly: University Pro- Middle East and North Africa Depart- Chairman, Amman Center for Peace and fessor, King Saud University, Ryiadh] ment Director, Ministry of Foreign Development, Amman, Jordan Affairs, Stockholm, Sweden [formerly: EGYPT Consul General in Jerusalem] Maj-Gen. (ret.) Mohammed Abbadi, retired Assistant Chief of Staff- Prof. Wa’el N. Al-Assad, Head of the PUGWASH Intelligence, Amman, Jordan Disarmament Department, The Arab League, Cairo, Egypt Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- Mr Ali Al Ayyed, Assistant Director of General, Pugwash Conferences on Sci- the Special Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Amb. Hisham Badr, Egyptian Foreign ence and World Affairs; Professor of Affairs, Amman, Jordan Ministry, Cairo [formerly: Chief of Cabi- Mathematical Physics, University of net of the Secretary General of the Arab Milan, Italy; Director, Program on Disar- Prof. Mohammad Khair Eiadat, Professor League] mament and International Security, Lan- of Political Science, University of Jordan, dau Network – Centro Volta, Como, Amman Prof. Mostafa Elwi Saif, Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Economics Italy [formerly: Secretary General, Union Dr. Ayman Khalil, Center for Research on and Political Science, Cairo University, of Italian Scientists for Disarmament Arms Control and Security (CRACS), Giza, Egypt; Editor-in-chief, Nahdha (USPID)] Amman, Jordan Renaissance, a quarterly journal; Advisor PUGWASH STAFF Prof. Muhsen Makhamreh, Professor of to the President of Cairo University [for- Claudia Vaughn, Pugwash Conferences, Business Administration, University of merly : Vice Dean, Faculty of Economics via della Lungara 10, I-00165 Rome, Jordan, Amman [formerly: Dean of Busi- & Political Science, Cairo University] Italy, Tel. (++39-06) 687-2606, Fax: ness Faculty, University of Jordan] Gen. (ret.) Dr. Mohamed Kadry Said, (++39-06) 687-8376, Mobile: (++39-333) Dr. Farouq Mansour, Assistant Professor Head of Military Studies Unit and Tech- 456-6661, E-mail: [email protected] / Director of the Library, Al-Isra Private nology Advisor, Al-Ahram Center for University, Jordan; Library Consultant Political and Strategic Studies, Al-Ahram [formerly: Assistant to the President, Uni- Foundation, Cairo, Egypt; Professor of versity of Jordan; Director of major uni- Missile Mechanics of Flight, Military versity libraries for over 35 years] Technical College (MTC), Cairo [formerly: Deputy Director, Center of Dr. Faisal Al-Rfouh, President, Gandhi Defence Studies, Cairo] Center for Strategic Studies, Amman, Jor- dan; Chairman, Political Science Depart- Dr. Aly Abdel Monem, Director, Al- ment, University of Jordan, Amman [for- Ahram Center for Political and Strategic merly: Minister of Culture (Sept. Studies, Al-Ahram Foundation, Cairo, 1999-Jan. 2000); Minister of Social Egypt
46 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 ACTIVITIES OF NATIONAL PUGWASH GROUPS
PUGWASH MEETING NO. 284 Regional Pugwash Workshop Workshop on Economic and Social Inequities in Latin America Bariloche, Argentina, 29 May–2 June 2003
Report highly diversified Latin American, as well as non Latin American, participation in the follow-ups. by Darío D’Atri and Walter Scheuer The Workshop focused its analysis and discussions along two main lines: 1) The deterioration of the macroeconomy and productive he First Regional Workshop held within the pro- systems in Latin American countries as a result of over gramme of the Pugwash Study Group named a decade of neoliberal economic policies, including ‘Towards the Solution of Economic Inequities in T accelerated programs for privatization of state-owned Latin America and of their Social Consequences’, met in enterprises, the withdrawal of the State from its direct- the outskirts of San Carlos de Bariloche, Northern Patago- ing role in Latin American economies, deep commercial nia, Argentina, from May 29 to June 2, 2003. It was aperture, and the liberalization of economic relations hosted by the ‘Bariloche Group for Science and World within each country. Affairs’ (BACyAM Group) and made possible by the gen- erous support of Pugwash Conferences on Science and 2) The public policies and juridical framework which World Affairs, Pugwash Netherlands, as well as of the fol- allowed a steady rise in poverty and social and lowing Bariloche based entities: Balseiro Foundation, Bar- economic inequity. iloche Atomic Centre (Argentine Atomic Energy Commis- In addition, within the macroeconomic issue, the sion), City Council, Hayland Travel, and Southern Winds effects (conditionings) produced by Latin American coun- Airlines. One Spanish participant specialized on Latin tries’ huge foreign debts, as well as the impact of global- American issues joined 11 Argentines covering different ization, on the region were analyzed with special socio-economic areas, plus some observers from the host- attention. ing group. In what follows, a first view of the matters dealt with The search of ways for solving the many problems has been grouped into four sections. The text is the sole associated with the alarming present socio-economic situa- responsibility of the authors. Extended information on the tion in most of the Latin American countries has emerged Workshop, the Study Group, and the ‘Bariloche Group for on the regional scene as one of the issues of highest prior- Science and World Affairs’, as well as the text of the papers ity. Think tanks of different fields, leaders of industrial submitted, are available in www.forobariloche.com.ar and financial corporations as well as of labor unions, some up-dated political parties, and leading NGOs, all I. Macroeconomic Situation and Analysis of over the region, are considering or starting to consider Productive Systems matters related to these problematic issues. It was thus Of all the regions in the world, Latin America is the one considered that the activities of the Study Group should which, since the late ’80s, most thoroughly applied poli- join this trend and, therefore, begin as soon as possible. cies of economic liberalization, privatization of state- One consequence of this determination was that the par- owned enterprises, fast trade liberalization, and ticipation was – as said – mainly Argentine and that a withdrawal of the State. At the same time, from 1980 to large part of the debates and presentations examined the 2000, the number of poor people in Latin America rose by Argentine crisis and its effects on the steady rise in poverty 75 million to over 200 million. Of the new poor, almost and inequity. Great effort will be devoted to having a 95% are urban poor. The economic liberalization
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 47 Pugwash Meeting No. 284 programs were largely inspired in the so-called Washing- ployment was also produced by microeconomic phenom- ton Consensus (a set of political and economic guidelines ena like the generational turnover related to the incorpora- which, from the late ’80s, became the main defining force tion of technology or process re-engineering and rational- behind the doctrine promoted by the central countries and ization. multilateral credit organizations towards Third World Throughout the discussions on the economic context countries). Not only did these programs create large num- of inequity in Latin America, there was heated debate bers of poor and indigent people, but they also produced a about the impact of fixed, overvalued exchange rate poli- spectacular rise of economic and social inequity and cies – as happened in Argentina from 1991 to 2001 – on increased unemployment rates to over 15%. Furthermore, the loss of competitiveness and the destruction of national by promoting the withdrawal of the State from its direct- economies. Several members of the panel argued that this ing role of previous decades, they caused a rise in illiteracy kind of exchange rate policy was adopted not merely as a and school dropout rates as a result of lack of funding for result of mistaken political decisions, but rather as a public education and unprecedented deterioration in the response to the private interests of local and foreign public health systems on which much of the population of finance and service groups, who were highly privileged by Latin America relies. those policies. Another factor mentioned as causing grow- At the same time, during the 90s there was an ing instability in the region was the lack of rules control- extremely high rate of financial and productive capital ling the inflow and outflow of financial capital. Thus, not inflow to Latin America. Together with the privatization only did the real economy of countries like Argentina suf- process, in most countries this brought about a huge leap fer the impact of an overvalued currency causing a grow- in the rate of investment in infrastructure for telecommu- ing loss of competitiveness of local production, but also nications, ports, roads and services in general. Added to the total liberalization of capital flow produced a twofold the effect of trade liberalization, greater investment led to deleterious effect. On the one hand, there was rapid inflow rapid progress in the overall condition of services and of financial capital, which made it possible to finance infrastructure and an ensuing positive impact on the pro- inconsistent fiscal policies and increase consumption with duction standards of Latin American enterprises. foreign savings. On the other hand, it created vulnerability According to what was put forward at this meeting, to external shocks when there was a sudden interruption the combination of trade liberalization, privatizations and of international financing during times of crisis, as the considerable increase in foreign investment brought occurred during the Tequila crisis, South-East Asian crisis about a microeconomic phenomenon that was character- and Russian devaluation. All participants fully agreed on ized by the following features: the need to apply rules for controlling capital, as Chile 1) The ownership of the main local enterprises and does. industries passed into foreign hands. It was also pointed out that the conversion from closed 2) The incorporation of technology and process re- economies with high State participation to open engineering had a major impact on the efficiency of enter- economies with no State control produced negative conse- prises and industries. quences, which were enhanced by the lack of adequate 3) There was an increase in the relative importance of compensation policies. The following lacks were services in the overall economy. mentioned: 4) A noticeable difference became apparent between 1) Lack of a planned financial system focused on pro- some companies that survived competition from imported ductive investment. products by making major changes in their production 2) Lack of systems and institutions for generating methods and matching their production costs and quality innovation. to international standards, and, on the other hand, the 3) Lack of training to create skilled human resources. large proportion of companies and industries that were 4) Lack of international negotiation strategies. unable to withstand foreign competition and were forced 5) Lack of promotion of cooperation and association to close down. among enterprises. 5) Although the main cause of the rise in unemploy- 6) Lack of development of the production network in ment was the closure of companies due to the impact of order to gain economies of scale and specialization. foreign competition caused by trade liberalization, unem- The issue of poverty in Latin America was also
48 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 284 discussed from an ideologically broader point of view. implement adaptive policies. He believes that to confront One of the participants argued that one can either the problem of inequity, an alternative, realistic paradigm consider the issue of poverty from a “mitigation” stand- should be created, whereby each nation would assert its point, as suggested for example by international financial own identity, its own distinctive presence in the world, organizations, or otherwise, one should move towards a and, on that basis, generate its own potential for develop- system of social relations where changes in public polices ment. He outlined the main trends of globalization as and cultural revaluation would enable structural changes follows: to be made. He centered the need for structural change on 1) Major increase and transformation of trade, with what he considers to be the current situation of ‘structural greater participation of goods and services having high productive overcapacity’, where the supply capacity is added value. Within manufactured goods, a major greater than real future demand. He identified this situa- increase in those having high added value connected to tion as the cause of many of the aforementioned mistaken knowledge. public policies and negative effects of globalization. He 2) Internationalization of production due to the expan- highlighted the role of education and the media in achiev- sion of multinational companies. Over one third of inter- ing the major cultural changes he believes are needed in national trade is within-company, and markets are shaped order to attain a more humanistic perception of society. by the rapid growth of the subsidiaries. A small yet significant example of structural change 3) Integration of financial markets and generalization was put forward. As the widespread closure of companies of speculative capital flow, especially affecting emerging has had a major impact on the rise in unemployment, markets in spite of the fact that they receive no more than poverty and inequity, several members of the Study Group 10% of these financial flows. suggested seeking and promoting mechanisms to support 4) Implementation, by developed countries of regula- the continuity of these companies, for example through tions that favor the interests of their own enterprises and cooperative systems or by placing the control of an governments and discriminate against developing coun- affected company into the hands of its employees. tries. The same happens, of course, with access to knowl- Although Argentina was taken as a case in point, since edge. during its crisis, there was a growing phenomenon of The main presentation on this topic forwarded the fol- workers taking control of bankrupt companies, one of the lowing points in terms of alternative ways: participants mentioned a Spanish example, by which, dur- 1) Although globalization is the space in which power ing the mid-seventies, a law was passed to rule the labor is exercised within the aforementioned basic tendencies, stock companies (run by the employees). there are still alternatives for trade policies and interna- Several participants discussed an ideologically deeper tional insertion. As far as financial policies are concerned, issue in the search for solutions to social and economic a country may either enter globalization passively, without inequity, asking which should come first: the creation of any rules to control financial flow, or it may do so after methods to increase wealth or the creation of methods to imposing certain rules. Similarly, as multinational compa- improve the social distribution of existing wealth. Of simi- nies expand, a country may either assume that all foreign lar relevance was the exchange of opinion on tax policies, investment should be welcome and, therefore, eliminate with reference to deciding onto which area should taxa- any kind of checks, rules and regulations, or it may estab- tion be centered: work, capital or profits. lish rules and policies to create a framework for control- ling national resources, directing investments towards the Globalization and Inequity production of exportable goods, etc.. Within the discussions on economy, one of the presenta- 2) The process of access to knowledge must be made tions dealt with the impact of globalization on the social endogenous, because transplanted knowledge is only a and economic conditions in developing countries and its partial process and does not contribute toward the trans- characterization in Latin America. The presenter did not formation of the productive network. agree that power has been transferred entirely to a 3) The degree of injustice and inequality existing in a transnational level, hindering or even preventing periph- country depends on the way it reacts to the challenge of eral countries from establishing their own processes of globalization. The way in which each country will become development and leaving them with no choice but to part of the international context lies in its own hands.
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 49 Pugwash Meeting No. 284
Each country shares globalization according to which MERCOSUR), in order to create a critical mass which policies it implements: either a dynamic one, of expansion could attain a certain degree of strategic invulnerability. of international trade and access to knowledge and inno- On the other hand, it was pointed out that a strong MER- vation, or one of increasing inequality and loss of control COSUR – as a driving force behind a better insertion in over its own resources, as well as over financial flows. the world – would only be possible as a result of the inte- 4) The country’s degree of social and economic gration of strong countries, as a successful supranational inequality is a key factor. In countries that have entered entity can only be achieved if it is based on a group of suc- globalization ‘successfully’, society is better integrated and cessful nations. inequality more moderate. In contrast, countries with Two contrasting prospects were outlined: one foresaw huge social differences, high concentration of wealth, the USA succeeding in its present aspirations for world waste, extreme inequality and leaders who tend to be at domination and the establishment of a new hegemonic the service of foreign interest, have not integrated well into order; while the other foresaw a not too far off multipolar globalization. In these countries, economic ideas remain world, with a strong presence of USA, Europe, China and trapped and they are unable to create alternatives to the India. univocal discourse produced by developed countries. 5) Violence, extremism and terrorism should be viewed III. Foreign Debt and Social and Economic Inequity as a natural, foreseeable consequence of the high degree of Two of the presentations and discussion sessions were inequality and inequity created by globalization, threaten- given entirely to debate the impact of foreign debt on the ing even the very interests of developed countries economies of Latin American countries. Several members themselves. It is their duty to intensify the search for a of the panel criticized the role of international financial more equitable, more balanced order. organizations like the IMF, which have for decades 6) The developing countries must accept that they will imposed structural conditioning on the economies of Latin not solve their problems on the international scene, but American countries, mainly in the form of budget adjust- rather through autonomous decisions on public policies. It ment plans tending to generate a tax surplus in order to is essential that they regain control of themselves, after enable the payment of the services of the foreign debt. It having lost it largely through the conditioning of their for- was stated that while most Latin American governments eign debt. There is no lack of resources. The problem is irresponsibly resorted to foreign financing in the face of organizational, requiring the construction of a converging local mismanagement of economy, international financial political system, where the majorities should be able to organizations also acted irresponsibly because, far from create a viable way of becoming integrated into the rest of setting limits to the negative debt - tax adjustment circle, the world. they consolidated a model of unpayable foreign debt. During the ensuing discussion, two main ideas arose. Considering the problem of foreign debt and that On the one hand, the notion that a supra-national countries like Argentina have been in default for over a integration of Latin America is necessary (based on year, some participants proposed the implementation of strong measures leading to the investi- gation of the origin of the debt and its successive renegotiations, as well as taking to court any government offi- cials who participated in illegitimate dealings to obtain or refinance foreign debt. There were also proposals that Latin American countries should rene- gotiate their foreign debt according to criteria of the ‘common good’ of the people, in other words, that they should pay only the interest and capital of genuine debt after having satisfied the basic needs of the people.
50 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Meeting No. 284
As a tool to exert juridical pressure, though not as an 1985 reforms to the World Bank and IDB charters on actual solution to the problem of foreign debt, it was pro- Latin American public policies was mentioned. These posed that foreign debt should be brought before highly reforms enabled the banks to start financing projects independent organisms such as the International Court of involving institutional reform instead of attending to pro- The Hague, in order to have it pronounced legitimate or jects involving infrastructure, health, etc. Not only did this illegitimate. Within this context, it was recalled that in interfere with the institutional shaping of those countries, Latin America, and particularly in Argentina, there is a but also the shaping tended to enhance fiscal efficiency longstanding tradition and international recognition for criteria rather than the real need for efficiency and judicial the successful legal treatment of Latin American foreign independence. debt, which developed creditor countries had been Finally, there was a presentation on independent gov- demanding by means of strong pressure, even armed. ernment control entities, summarized by the following points: IV. Public Policies and Juridical Framework of Social and 1) Inverting the rule: instead of political power control- Economic Inequity ling society, there should be a new system whereby society The final sessions of the Bariloche meeting analyzed the controls political power. legal and institutional frameworks which have direct or 2) Establishing a mechanism whereby governors would indirect bearing on the creation of conditions that be required to account for their actions regularly, and a heighten and sustain social and economic inequity. One mechanism enabling them to be divested of power. This presentation and the ensuing debate focused on the need would prevent voting from becoming a mere formality to consolidate independent judicial systems, as opposed to whereby citizens periodically express their opinion only to the present situation, where the Judicial Power in most have the ensuing governors doing whatever they please, Latin American countries depends on the political and even when it goes against their campaign promises. The economic powers. mechanism should be efficient enough to prevent bureau- One participant argued that “Nowadays, people mis- cratic delays when it needs to be applied. trust the judicial systems, and the weakest social sectors 3) Establishing that one of the conditions to become a are the most skeptical about the ability of the courts of controller is not to have acted in bodies subject to control justice to satisfy their needs.” In response to this, a first for the past ten years. proposal was: 4) Creating bodies that really work (unlike current 1) To increase the independence, impartiality and ones) to control public enterprises. Analyzing the feasibil- capacity of judges. Other constitutional powers should not ity of creating organizations formed by the consumers of interfere with the Councils of the Judiciary, which should these companies’ services to carry out a twofold control: work as autonomous bodies for the administration of jus- on the control bodies and on the companies. A simple tice, and be in charge of training judges, assigning posts mechanism should be implemented for cases of members and the system of discipline. of the control bodies neglecting their duties. In addition, 2) To increase the competence of the justices of the analyzing the possibility of having the Judicial Power han- peace, who are so much involved with communities, dle this kind of control. This, in many cases, would enabling many judicial matters to be more swiftly involve first solving the problem of the lack of a judicial resolved. police force depending directly on the judges, to enable the 3) To recognize Inter-American jurisdiction, such as the immediate application of their resolutions. San José Court on Human Rights, as more binding. Not 5) Creating a body to control Justice. In Argentina, the only would this increase the jurisdictional guarantees of situation in the Council of the Judiciary is sufficient to human rights, but it would also tend to make the work of show not only that a control body is necessary, but also national judges more rigorous, if their sentences could be that judicial control cannot be in the hands of members of appealed and revised before the Inter-American Court of the Judicial Power. This would entail creating new rules in Justice or other such courts which should urgently be cre- most Latin American countries. For example, during the ated within the framework of regional bodies such as the first four years of the Council of the Judiciary in Pacto Andino or the MERCOSUR. Argentina, there were over 600 denouncements but only With regard to this point, the negative aspect of the three minor sanctions. The judicial corporation is closed
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 51 Pugwash Meeting No. 284 and there is no way to control mem- Participants bers effectively when the controllers are also members. Buch, Tomás – Consultant of a local Energy Forum, UN University, Latin 6) Creating systems to control the advanced technology company. Writer on American nations. Full Professor, Insti- security forces, particularly the police social aspects of technology. Member of tute for Energy Economy, Bariloche. force (control of the army was not the BACyAM Group. Lozada, Martín – Jurist. Specialized in considered). It is entirely unaccept- Cafiero, Mario – Member of Argentine international justice, human rights and able that the public should be Parliament. Specialized in economic- privatization of security. Member of the unaware of any human rights viola- financial issues, particularly foreign debt American Society of Jurists. Member of tions that may occur at police and banking procedures. the BACyAM Group. stations, in spite of the fact that these Colomer Viadel, José – President, Spanish Lozada, Salvador – Renowned former violations may be serious, sometimes Council for Ibero American Studies. Pro- judge. Specialized in foreign debt and even leading to death. Police stations fessor of Constitutional Law, human rights. Member of the BACyAM should be controlled, though not per- Autonomous University of Madrid and Group. University of Valencia. Specialized in manently. Systematic checking should Raiti, Humberto – Electrical Engineer, advanced participative democracy, partic- be carried out, not by government formerly with National Commission of ularly socio-economic aspects. officials but by agents designated by Atomic Energy and Technological human rights associations or lawyers’ D’Atri, Darío – Journalist, specialized in Enterprises local and international economic matters. associations. Scheuer, Walter – Physicist, former Head Member of the BACyAM Group. The content of these proposals of Department, Argentine Atomic Energy was broken down and reinforced in Ferrer, Aldo – Economist. Leading collab- Commission. orator in the elaboration of the “Plan the ensuing discussion. The following Szmukler, Beinusz – Member, Argentine Fénix”, an alternative project for present Council of the Judiciary; President, Amer- topics were given special attention: Argentine economic policies. Formerly: ican Society of Jurists. (a) implementation of mechanisms to Minister of Economy; President, Bank of divest government officials of power the Province of Buenos Aires [one of the Viglione, Abel – Chief economist, Latin as a key tool to empower society, (b) three main public banks of Argentina], American Economic Research Founda- the importance of having bodies to and of other public agencies. Author of tion [FIEL]. Specialized in industrial many articles and books. policy issues. defend competence, (c) the possibility of analyzing radio and television Gil, Jorge Eduardo – Engineer, Renewable media as public services, since they Energy Projects. act in spheres which are definitely not Gorraiz, Octavio – Psychologist private, (d) the major rise in social Espeche Gil, Miguel Ángel – Jurist and awareness of consumer rights and career diplomat. Expert in juridical duties towards public service enter- aspects of foreign debt and international prises (especially public conviction law. Former Ambassador in many against these companies aspiring to countries. the right of unlimited returns). Hallberg, Karen – Physicist and Research Fellow at the National Council of Science and Technology, and Member of the Pugwash Council. Kosacoff, Bernardo – Head, Argentine branch, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean [CEPAL]. Expert in industrial policies. Kozulj, Roberto – Economist, social com- municator. Specialized in cultural devel- opment and energy. Adviser in economy, poverty and energy, at CEPAL, World
52 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 INTERNATIONAL STUDENT/YOUNG PUGWASH
Preparations for ISYP Halifax Conference— ISYP Organizing Committee and ISYP Symposium Plans
Report According to a decision by the ISYP Board and the conference organising committee, participation in the by Gina van Schalkwyk ISYP Conference is, for the first time, being made condi- tional upon submission of a paper. This measure was uring the Pugwash Conference in La Jolla, USA, introduced to stimulate the quality of participation in the ISYP members approached Pugwash Conferences working group discussions at the ISYP conference and also Don Science and World Affairs and Pugwash aims to increase the participation of Student/Young Pugees Canada seeking their assistance in the organization of the in the senior conference working groups. Another spin-off ISYP Conference traditionally preceding Pugwash Confer- from these paper contributions will be a pool of articles to ence. In the absence of an established Student Young Pug- feed into the ISYP Journal on Science and World Affairs. wash Group in Canada, ISYP alone had to become The response to the request for papers has been responsible for the planning of the 2-day conference. The overwhelming and formatted papers can be viewed on the guidance of Pugwash Canada has proven to be crucial at ISYP web site (www.student-pugwash.org). each organizational step. During the annual ISYP Conference, students will The ISYP Halifax Organizing Committee was estab- convene in working groups similar to those in the senior lished and consists of: Magdalena Kropiwnicka (Italy, Co- conference where they will discuss working group themes chair) and Arthur Petersen (Netherlands, Co-chair), Juan and produce reports on their findings and recommenda- Pablo Pardo Guerra (Mexico), Gina van Schalkwyk tions. The conference also provides an opportunity for the (South Africa), David Sandomierski (Canada) and Tom ISYP General Assembly (consisting of representatives of Borsen Hansen (Denmark). National Groups present) to receive the ISYP Board’s In the months following La Jolla, the Committee report and to discuss ISYP’s agenda and work plan for the worked closely with the Canadian Pugwash group in next year. preparation of fundraising proposals, issuing call for nom- inations, selection of participants, drawing up of a confer- www.student-pugwash.org ence programme and assisting with travel arrangements This project, started during the last months of 2002 by the for twenty international and ten local Canadian Information Technologies group of ISYP and launched just Student/Young participants. a few months ago, has been a crucial element in the daily The committee received a suggestion from Juan Pablo operations of the young Pugees. Not only is it a source of Pardo (Mexico) and Tom Borsen Hansen crucial information about ISYP but it is also (Denmark) to host a half-day symposium at a dynamic collection of opinions, papers and the start of the ISYP Conference to discuss an STUDENT reports that can be accessed by anyone on issue that has gained in prominence recently: the Internet. In recent weeks it has also “The Future of the United Nations after Iraq”. served as an obligated reference for the In preparation for the symposium a number of upcoming ISYP Conference since it contains background papers have been distributed and both background papers as well as general an online discussion forum has been opened information. It is expected that, once the (the group can be visited and joined via conference has come to an end, the website http//groups.yahoo.com/group/ will also display the reports from the isypsymposium2003). Confirmed speakers for Student/Young working groups, open to the Symposium include Prof. Joseph Rotblat PUGWASH general access. (Poland/UK) and Senator Roche (Canada).
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 53 The ISYP Journal on Science and World Affairs The symposium on “The Future of the United Nations One of the exciting new projects that will be launched by after Iraq”, which will be held prior to the ISYP Confer- ISYP in the next few months is the interdisciplinary ISYP ence in Halifax, Canada in July 2003, will provide the Journal on Science and World Affairs. The journal, which theme and background papers for the second issue of the will be published bi-annually, aims to provide young and ISYP Journal on Science and World Affairs. For this issue student Pugees with an opportunity to have their work the editorial team and organisers of the Symposium will reviewed by eminent senior Pugees and see it in electronic invite ISYP members and others to contribute further arti- print. cles related to this theme. Articles will, once again, be The first issue of the journal would draw upon paper peer-reviewed before being published. submissions of Student/Young participants to the annual ISYP intends to make the ISYP conference symposium ISYP Conference to be held in Halifax, Canada in July an annual event to feed into each alternative issue of the 2003. A collection of best papers will be selected by a Journal. panel of editors headed by Gina van Schalkwyk. The edi- The ISYP Journal on Science and World Affairs will torial team will then approach a number of guest editors provide ISYP with an opportunity to distribute their views from senior Pugwash to review and comment on articles. on matters related to a more peaceful world order, where Reworked and improved articles will be published in an the nexus between science and world affairs is critically electronic format and will be distributed to Pugwash mem- investigated, to a broader audience. It will also provide bers and academic and research institutions around the young researchers with an opportunity to have their work world. It will also be available on the ISYP web site read and reviewed by some of the top scientists, (www.student-pugwash.org). It is hoped that eventually researchers and practitioners in their field. ISYP will be able to attract funding to produce a print edi- We believe that this project will add value not only to tion of the ISYP Journal and perhaps to provide grants to the activities and the existence of ISYP, but to the Pugwash students to present approved papers to Pugwash confer- Movement in general, and we count on the support of the ences and workshops. extensive network of Pugees to make it a success.
54 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 OBITUARIES
Prince Sadruddin Aga Khan
Prince Sadruddin Aga Khan died on 12 May at the age which he asked me to be a member, and which dealt with of 70 after a lengthy illness borne with great courage dur- environmental and nuclear problems. As his neighbour, I ing which he continued to devote his efforts to peace, had an opportunity to become well acquainted with social justice and environmental concerns among numer- Sadruddin – or Sadri as he was know to friends – through ous others. numerous meetings and social functions. He was long associated with United Nations work, Sadruddin was a strong supporter of Pugwash. He first as Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees, and was a trustee of the Pugwash Foundation from its start in later, at age 33, as High Commissioner, a post he held for 1986 until his death. Although he did not attend Pugwash twelve years. During that time he dealt with the problems meetings, he often invited participants in Pugwash sym- of millions of refugees from the Pakistan-Bangladesh con- posia and workshops held in Geneva to his palatial home flict and from Vietnam, Uganda and Sudan. on the lake for dinner and entertainment. Sadruddin was the son of Aga Khan III who, in 1932, He was a man of elegance and charm – a prince – and represented India at the World Disarmament Congress, a person of the highest aspirations and accomplishments, and in 1937 became President of the League of Nations. for humanity-at-large and especially for the less fortunate Among the many foundations and commissions that populations. Sadruddin directed – on human rights, refugees, Third World relief, and others – was the Groupe de Bellerive, of Dr. Martin M. Kaplan
Thomas Odhiambo
Prof. Thomas Odhiambo, a Kenyan scientist renowned Stanford University. He remained an active supporter of for his work to improve African agriculture, died at the Pugwash over the next two decades, attending his last age of 72 in May 2003. Pugwash meeting, the 42nd Pugwash Conference, in Berlin Educated at the University of Cambridge with a degree in September 1992. in entomology, Prof. Odhiambo founded the International Working closely with long-time members of the Pug- Center of Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE), in wash community such as Ruth Adams and Victor Rabi- Nairobi, in 1972, where he served as director for 25 years. nowitch to help train a new generation of scientists in ICIPE focused on providing African farmers with low-cost Africa and other developing countries, Prof. Odhiambo solutions for pest control, especially those that did not rely symbolized the spirit of international scientific coopera- on pesticides and synthetic chemicals. He also helped tion that transcends national boundaries and socio-politi- found the African Academy of Sciences in 1985 and was cal backgrounds for the welfare of all. recipient of the Albert Einstein Medal in 1979. Prof. Odhiambo attended his first Pugwash workshop, “What Can Scientists Do for Development,” in 1970 at
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 55 Academician Vsevolod S. Avduyevsky
Academician Vsevolod Avduyevsky, a famous Russian conferences. In the early 1990s Academician Avduyevsky scientist in mechanics and space engineering, died in was one of the initiators of the Pugwash project on a Moscow at the age of 82. Nuclear-Weapons-Free World and Conversion of Military Academician Avduyevsky made outstanding contribu- R&D. One of the results of this project was the publica- tions to space science through his work on temperature tion in 1998 of a Pugwash Monograph, Conversion of control and heat shielding for artificial satellites and Military R&D After the Cold War, which he co-edited manned spacecraft. He actively participated in the devel- with Judith Reppy. opment of the famous Russian carrier rocket Proton and Academician Avduyevsky was a key member of the the spaceship for research on Venus. Russian Pugwash community, as well as a respected mem- From 1987 to the last day of his life he was a member ber of the world scientific community. of the Russian Pugwash Committee. He participated in Academician Yuri Ryzhov international Pugwash meetings, including several annual
ISODARCO
International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts ITALIAN PUGWASH GROUP 17th ISODARCO Winter Course Andalo (Trento) Italy, 11–18 January, 2004
Violence by Armed Non-State Groups and International Security
ISODARCO has been organizing residential courses on global security since 1966. The courses are intended for people already having a professional interest in the problems of international conflicts, or for those who would like to play a more active and technically competent role in this field. The courses have an interdis- ciplinary nature, and their subject matter extends from the technical and scientific side of the problems to their sociological and political implications. Lecturers at the 17th Winter Course include Alexei Arbatov, Nadia Arbatova, Gabriel Baramki, Martin Butcher, Paul Guinnessy, Catherine Kelleher, Steve Miller, Amos Nadan, and Judith Reppy.
For more information, contact Prof. Carlo Schaerf, Director, Department of Physics University of Rome “Tor Vergata” Via della Ricerca Scientifica 1, I-00133 Rome, Italy Tel.: (+39) 06 72594560/1 — Fax: (+39) 06 2040309 E-mail: [email protected] www.isodarco.it
56 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 EDITORIAL
A Challenge to the World’s Scientists
by Kofi Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations
cience has contributed immensely to human gaps between rich and poor is strong enough to with- progress and to the development of modern stand the force of violence and war. If science is to Ssociety. The application of scientific knowledge reach its full potential and draw on the great minds continues to furnish powerful means for solving from every country, we must do more to end and pre- many of the challenges facing humanity, from food vent conflict. Scientists themselves have a key role to security to diseases such as AIDS, from pollution to play here, too. The Pugwash Conference movement, the proliferation of weapons. Recent advances in launched by the Russell-Einstein Manifesto of 1955, information technology, genetics, and biotechnology brought Russian and Western scientists together for hold extraordinary prospects for individual well- more than 40 years to develop common understand- being and that of humankind as a whole. At the same ings of the dangers of nuclear war and ways of time, the way in which scientific endeavors are pur- reducing them, and in recent years has constructed a sued around the world is marked by clear inequali- strong dialogue between North and South on the ties. Developing countries, for example, generally problems of development. “Lab-to-lab” cooperation spend much less than 1 percent of their gross domes- also helped to lay the groundwork for cooperative tic product on scientific research, whereas rich coun- nuclear disarmament and arms control between Rus- tries devote between 2 and 3 percent. The number of sia and the United States after the Cold War. Peace- scientists in proportion to population in the develop- making and peacebuilding should never be the exclu- ing countries is 10 to 30 times smaller than in devel- sive preserve of diplomats and politicians. oped countries. Ninety-five percent of the new science There are deep similarities between the ethos of in the world is cre-ated in the countries comprising science and the project of international organi- only one-fifth of the world’s population. And much zation. Both are constructs of reason, as expressed, of that science— in the realm of health, for for example, in international agreements addressing example—neglects the problems that afflict most of global problems. Both are engaged in a struggle the world’s people. against forces of unreason that have, at times, used This unbalanced distribution of scientific activity scientists and their research for destructive purposes. generates serious problems not only for the scientific We share the experimental method; the United community in the developing countries, but for Nations, after all, is an experiment in human cooper- development itself. It accelerates the dis-parity ation. And both strive to give expression to universal between advanced and developing countries, creating truths; for the United Nations, these include the dig- social and economic difficulties at both national and nity and worth of the human person and the under- international levels. The idea of two worlds of standing that even though the world is divided by science is anathema to the scientific spirit. It will many particulars, we are united as a single human require the commitment of scientists and scientific community. institutions throughout the world to change that por- The scientific community’s basic concern for trait to bring the benefits of science to all. human welfare makes it an indispensable partner of But no bridge that science might build across the the United Nations. With your help, the world can
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 57 achieve the “blue revolution” it so urgently needs to are provided to thousands of developing-country deal with current and emerging water crises. Your institutions, free of charge or at a steep discount. research can enable Africa to move toward a “green The agenda is broad and the needs immense, but revolution” that will boost agricultural productivity. together we are equal to these challenges. The United Your solidarity can help developing countries build Nations system and I personally very much look for- up their capacity to participate effectively in negotia- ward to working with scientists throughout the tions of international treaties and agreements involv- world to support your work and spread its blessings ing science. And your advocacy can help bring about even further, even deeper, in the years to come. a breakthrough in access to scientific knowledge; for example, through the Health InterNetwork Access to Science, 7 March 2003 Research Initiative, under which scientific journals (reprinted with permission)
BOOKS
Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation by Lynn Eden Cornell Studies in Security Affairs (forthcoming in December 2003)
Whole World on Fire focuses on a technical riddle ment of organizational knowledge about nuclear fire. Expert wrapped in an organizational mystery: How and why, for communities outside the military reinforced this disparity in more than half a century, did the U.S. government fail organizational capability to predict blast damage but not fire to predict nuclear fire damage as it drew up plans to fight damage. Yet some innovation occurred, and predictions of strategic nuclear war? fire damage were nearly incorporated into nuclear war plan- ning in the early 1990s. The author explains how such a dra- U.S. bombing in World War II caused massive fire damage to matic change almost happened, and why it did not. Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but later war plans took account only of damage from blast; they completely ignored damage Whole World on Fire shows how well-funded and highly from atomic firestorms. Recently a small group of professional organizations, by focusing on what they do well researchers has shown that for modern nuclear weapons the and systematically excluding what they don’t do well, may destructiveness and lethality of nuclear mass fire often and build a poor representation of the world—a self-reinforcing predictably greatly exceeds that of nuclear blast. This has fallacy that can have serious consequences. In a sweeping major implications for defense policy: the U.S. government conclusion, Eden shows the implications of the analysis for has underestimated the damage caused by nuclear understanding such things as the sinking of the Titanic, the weapons, Lynn Eden finds, and built far more warheads, and collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge, and the poor fire- far more destructive warheads, than it needed for the proofing in the World Trade Center. Pentagon’s war-planning purposes.
How could this have happened? The answer lies in how Lynn Eden is Associate Director for Research/Senior Research organizations frame the problems they try to solve. In a nar- Scholar at the Center for International Security and Coopera- rative grounded in organization theory, science and technol- tion, Institute for International Studies, Stanford University. ogy studies, and primary historical sources (including declas- She is the author of Crisis in Watertown, co-author of sified documents and interviews), Eden explains how the Witness in Philadelphia, coeditor of Nuclear Arguments, U.S. Air Force’s doctrine of precision bombing led to the and an editor of The Oxford Companion to American development of very good predictions of nuclear blast—a Military History. She is co-chair, with Steve Miller, of U.S. significant achievement—but for many years to no develop- Pugwash.
58 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Pugwash Council for the 2002–2007 Quinquennium
Amb. (ret.) Ochieng Adala, of the Africa Association for International Understand- cil of Space Science and Technology; Al- Peace Forum (APFO) in Nairobi, Kenya, ing; CPAPD, PO Box 188, 15 Wanshou Ahram Center for Political and Strategic is former Permanent Representative of Rd., Beijing, China 100036, Tel.: (++86- Studies, Al-Galaa St., Cairo, Egypt, Tel.: Kenya to the United Nations in New 10) 6827-1736 or 6821-4433 (ext. (++20-2) 770-5630, Fax: (++20-2) 578- York, former Deputy Secretary/Director 8586), Fax: (++86-10) 6827-3675, 6037, E-mail: [email protected] for Political Affairs, Ministry of Foreign E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Martin Kaplan, an American living in Affairs and International Cooperation, Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino is Professor Switzerland, is a former director of and former Ambassador of Kenya to the of Mathematical Physics at the University research at the World Health Organiza- Arab Republic of Egypt, the Kingdom of of Milan in Italy, Secretary General of the tion and former Secretary-General of Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia; APFO, Union of Italian Scientists for Disarma- Pugwash (1976-88); Pugwash Geneva P.O. Box 76621, Tel.: (++254-2) ment (USPID), and Director of the Pro- Office, The WMO/OMM Building, 7 bis 574092/6, Fax: (++254-2) 561357, gram on Disarmament and International Avenue de la Paix, CH-1202 Geneva, E-mail: [email protected] Security, Landau Network – Centro Switzerland, Tel. (++41-22) 730-8620, Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell is Executive Director Volta, Como; Department of Physics, Fax: (++41-22) 730-8625, E-mail: of Pugwash Conferences on Science and University of Milan, Via Celoria 16, [email protected] World Affairs, former Associate Execu- 20133 Milan, Italy, Tel.: (**39-02) 5031 Prof. Saideh Lotfian is Associate Profes- tive Officer at the American Academy of 7277, Fax: (**39-02) 5031 7480, E-mail: sor of Political Science at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences in Cambridge, and for- [email protected] Law and Political Science at the Univer- mer Staff Aide at the National Security Dr. Lynn Eden is Senior Research Scholar sity of Tehran, Deputy Director of the Council in Washington, DC; Pugwash at the Center for International Security Center for Middle East Strategic Studies Conferences, Tel.: (++1-202) 478-3440, and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford in Tehran, and Director of the Middle Email: [email protected] University in California, and co-chair of East Program at the Center for Strategic Prof. Francesco Calogero is professor of the US Pugwash Committee; CISAC, Research; Faculty of Law & Political theoretical physics at the University of Encina Hall, 2nd floor, Stanford Univer- Science, University of Tehran, Enghelab Rome “La Sapienza”, Chair of the Pug- sity, Stanford, California 94305-6165, Ave., Tehran, Iran, Tel.: (++98-21) 611- wash Council, former Secretary-General Tel. : (++1-650) 725 5369, Fax : (++1- 2546, Fax: (++98-21) 896-9565, E-mail: of Pugwash (1989-1997), and a former 650) 724 5683, E-mail: lynneden@ [email protected] member of the Governing Board of SIPRI stanford.edu Ambassador Miguel Marin-Bosch is a (1982-1992); Pugwash Conferences, via Dr. Karen Hallberg, a physicist, is cur- professor at the Universidad Iberoameri- della Lungara 10, I-00165 Roma, Italy, rently Research Fellow at the National cana in Mexico, and a former Deputy Tel. (++39-06) 687-2606, Fax: (++39-06) Council of Science and Technology, and Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the 687-8376, E-mail: francesco.calogero@ Professor at the Balseiro Institute, in Bar- Conference on Disarmament for the gov- uniroma1.it (and) francesco.calogero@ iloche, Argentina, as well as a Member of ernment of Mexico; Universidad roma1.infn.it (please use BOTH) the Board of the Argentine Physics Asso- Iberoamericana, Paseo de la Reforma Col. (ret.) Pierre Canonne is a Lecturer in ciation; Centro Atomico Bariloche, 8400 880, Lomas de Santa Fe, Mexico, DF Disarmament and Arms Control issues at Bariloche, Argentina, Tel.: (++54-2944) 01210, Mexico; Tel. (++59-507.678), the Univ. Marne-la-Vallés/Paris, former 445170, Fax: (++54-2944) 445299, E-mail: [email protected] Head of TDB at the Organization for the E-mail: [email protected] Prof. Anne McLaren is Principal Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy is Professor of Research Associate at Wellcome Hague, former Staff in the Strategic Nuclear Physics at Quaid-e-Azam Univer- Trust/Cancer Research UK, Institute of Affairs Department of the Ministry of sity in Islamabad, Chairman of Mashal Cell and Developmental Biology; a Mem- Defense, and former Negotiator, Chemi- Books, an independent maker of docu- ber of the British Pugwash Group; Mem- cal Weapons Convention; 29 Avenue mentary films for popularising science in ber of the European Commission’s Life Danton, 43300 Langeac, France, Pakistan, and an activist for peace and Sciences Group and European Group on Tel./Fax: (++33-4) 71 77 24 57, E-mail: social reform; E-mail: hoodbhoy@ Ethics; and former Foreign Secretary of [email protected] pierre.mit.edu the Royal Society; Tel.: (++44-1223) 334 Mr. Chen Jifeng is Convener of the Pug- 088, E-mail: [email protected] Gen. (ret.) Dr. Mohamed Kadry Said is wash Group of China, Vice President of Head of the Military Studies Unit and Dr. Steven Miller is director of the Inter- the China Arms Control and Disarma- Technology Advisor at the Al-Ahram national Security Program of the Belfer ment Association, and Executive Vice Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Center for Science and International President of the China Association for Al-Ahram Foundation in Cairo, Egypt; Affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy Promotion of International Science and Professor of Missile Mechanics of Flight School of Government, editor-in-chief of Peace. He was formerly Secretary General at the Military Technical College (MTC) the quarterly International Security, and of the Chinese People’s Association for in Cairo; Member of the Committee of co-chair of the US Pugwash Committee. Peace and Disarmament (CPAPD) in Bei- Strategic Planning of the Egyptian Coun- Formerly, he was a senior research fellow jing, and Council Member of the Chinese
Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 59 Pugwash Council at the Stockholm International Peace Gen. Pan Zhenqiang is Professor at the Higher Education & Technology, Presi- Research Institute (SIPRI), and taught Institute of Strategic Studies at the dent of Croatian Pugwash, a Member of defense and arms control studies in the National Defense University, PLA, China, the Club of Rome, a Fellow of the World political science department at the Massa- a retired Major General in the Chinese Academy and Academia Europea, former chusetts Institute of Technology; CSIA, People’s Army, and former Director of the Professor of Physics at Rudjer Boskovic J.F.Kennedy School of Government, Har- Institute of Strategic Studies; Institute of Institute, and former Foreign Secretary of vard University, 79 JFK Street, Strategic Studies, National Defense Uni- the Croatian Academy of Sciences & Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, Tel. versity, PLA, China, Tel/Fax: (++86-10) Arts; Rudjer Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka (++1-617) 495-1411, Fax: (++1-617) 8283-1159, E-mail: [email protected] 54, P.O. Box 1016, 10000 Zagreb, Croa- 495-8963, E-mail: steven_miller@ tia, Tel.:(++385-1) 46 80 202, Fax: Senator Douglas Roche, O.C., is a mem- Harvard.Edu (++385-1) 46 80 239, E-mail: slaus@ ber of The Senate of Canada; former Vis- rudjer.irb.hr Prof. Marie Muller is Dean of the Faculty iting Professor at the University of of Humanities, and Director of the Cen- Alberta in Edmonton; Chairman of the Prof. Fernando de Souza Barros is Profes- tre for International Political Studies, at Canadian Pugwash Group; Chairman of sor Emeritus at the Physics Institute of the the University of Pretoria. She is also a the Middle Powers Initiative; and former Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Council Member of the Academy of Sci- Canadian Ambassador for Disarmament; Brazil; Physics Institute, UFRJ, Tel. : ence of South Africa, and Chair of the University of Alberta, Edmonton, (++55-21) 2562-7337, Fax : (++55-21) Pugwash South Africa Group; University Alberta, Canada, Tel.: (++1-780) 466- 2562-7368, E-mail : [email protected] of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, Republic of 8072, Fax (++1-780) 469-4732, E-mail: Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh, a South South Africa, Tel.: (++27-12) 420-2318, [email protected] (or) [email protected]. Korean political scientist, is a senior Fax: (++27-12) 420 4501, E-mail: gc.ca researcher in the Department of Political [email protected] Prof. Sir Joseph Rotblat is emeritus pro- Science at the Free University of Berlin in Dr. Götz Neuneck is a physicist working fessor of physics at the University of Lon- Germany and President of the Korean on international security issues. He is cur- don, emeritus President of Pugwash, and Pugwash Group. He was formerly the rently Senior Fellow at the Institute for a recipient of the 1995 Nobel Peace Prize; director of the Korean International Peace Research and Security Policy 8 Asmara Road, London NW2 3ST, UK, Peace Research Institute (KIPRI)in Seoul, (IFSH) in Hamburg; Member of the Tel. (++44-20) 7405-6661, Fax: (++44- and a member of the Advisory Council Council of the German Physical Society 20) 7831-5651, E-mail: pugwash@ on Peaceful and Democratic Unification (DPG), and Deputy Chairman of the mac.com (*) of Korea; Schlieperstr. 12, D-13507 Working Group “Physics and Disarma- Berlin, Germany, Tel.: (++49-30) 433- Acad. Yuri Ryzhov is President of the ment” in the DPG; IFSH, Falkenstein 1, 8574, Fax: (++49-30) 433-2896, E-mail: International Engineering University in D-22587 Hamburg, Germany, Tel.: [email protected] Moscow; Chair of the Russian Pugwash (++49-40) 866077-21, Fax: (++49-40) Group; Academician of the Russian Prof. M.S. Swaminathan, a renowned 866-3615, E-mail: neuneck@public. Academy of Sciences; former Member of agriculture scientist. Considered the sci- uni-hamburg.de the Presidential Council of the Russian entific leader of the Green Revolution, his Dr. Alexander Nikitin is Director of the Federation; and former Ambassador approach in pioneering “ever-green revo- Center for Political and International Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of lution” is at the heart of what is now Studies (CPIS); Vice Chairman of the Russia to France; 6 Leninsky pr., called sustainable agriculture. He is a past Russian Pugwash Committee of Scientists Moscow, Russia, Tel.: ++7-095) 236- recipient of the World Food Prize, the for Disarmament and International Secu- 5066 / 9761, Fax: (++7-095) 236-1469, Honda Award, the Ramon Magsaysay rity; Professor at Moscow State Institute E-mail: [email protected] Award, the UNESCO Gandhi Prize, and for International Relations; First Vice- the Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disar- Air Commodore Jasjit Singh, AVSM, President of the Russian Political Science mament and Development. He chaired VrC, VM, a former veteran fighter pilot Association; and Board Member of the the International Commission on Peace and Director of Operations of the Indian Russian Academy of Political Sciences; and Food, and is UNESCO Chair in Air Force, is currently Director of the CPIS, Prospect Mira 36, Moscow, Russ- Ecotechnology, and Chairman of the MS Centre for Strategic and International ian Federation 129010, Tel. (++7-095) Swaminathan Research Foundation in Studies; he was Director of the Institute 280-3441, Fax: (++7-095) 280-0245, Chennai, India; MS Swaminathan for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) E-mail: [email protected] Research Foundation, 3rd Cross Street, in New Delhi (1987-2001); he has pub- Taramani Institutional Area, Chennai- Prof. Hitoshi Ohnishi is Professor of lished extensively on strategic and secu- 600 113, India, Tel.: (++91-44) 254 2790 International Relations and Deputy rity issues; 18/803, Heritage City, / 1698, Fax: (++91-44) 254 1319, E-mail: President at Tohoku University in Sendai, Mehrauli Road, Gurgaon-122002, India, [email protected] Japan; former President of the Peace Tel.: (++91-124) 891-7701, E-mail: Studies Association of Japan; and former [email protected] (or) csis_India@ Council Member of the Japanese Political yahoo.co.in Science Association; School of Law, Prof. Ivo Slaus, a Member of the Croat- Tohoku University, Kawauchi, Aoba-ku, ian Parliament, is Chairman of the Parlia- Sendai 980-8576, Japan, E-mail: mentary Subcommittee on Science, [email protected]
60 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2003 Calendar of Future Pugwash Meetings
17–21 July 2003 53rd Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs: Halifax and Pugwash, Advancing Human Security: The Role of Technology and Politics Nova Scotia, Canada
6–8 September 2003 Pugwash Meeting no. 288: 10th Pugwash Workshop on the Middle East: Tehran, Iran Middle East Security and Iran
9–12 October 2003 Pugwash Meeting no. 289: 2nd Pugwash Workshop on Terrorism: Como, Italy Consequences of the War on Terrorism
31 October–2 November 2003 Pugwash Meeting no. 290: 3rd Pugwash Workshop on South Asian Goa, India Security
8–9 November 2003 Pugwash Meeting no. 291: 20th Workshop of the Study Group on Geneva, Switzerland Chemical and Biological Weapons
10–12 December 2003 Pugwash Meeting no. 292: Pugwash Workshop on International Havana, Cuba Scientific Cooperation
11–18 January 2004 ISODARCO Meeting no. 51 : 17th Winter Course: Violence by Armed Andalo (Trento), Italy Non-state Groups and International Security
October 2004 54th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs Korea
*2005 Pugwash workshop in Japan (50th anniversary Russell/Einstein Manifesto Japan and 60th anniversary of Hiroshima and Nagasaki) Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
President Professor M.S. Swaminathan Secretary-General Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Executive Director Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell
Pugwash Council Chair Professor Marie Muller
Members Ambassador Ochieng Adala Professor Anne McLaren Professor Fernando de Souza Barros Dr. Steven Miller Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell Dr. Götz Neuneck Professor Francesco Calogero Dr. Alexander Nikitin Dr. Pierre Canonne Professor Hitoshi Ohnishi Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Maj. Gen. (ret.) Pan Zhenqiang Dr. Lynn Eden Senator Douglas Roche Professor Karen Hallberg Professor Joseph Rotblat Professor Pervez Hoodbhoy Academician Yuri Ryzhov Mr. Chen Jifeng Air Commodore Jasjit Singh Maj. Gen. Mohamed Kadry Said Professor Ivo Slaus Dr. Martin M. Kaplan Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh Prof. Saideh Lotfian Professor M.S. Swaminathan Amb. Miguel Marin-Bosch
Pugwash Executive Committee Chairman Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Members Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell Professor M.S. Swaminathan Prof. Saideh Lotfian Maj. Gen. (ret.) Pan Zhenqiang Professor Marie Muller
Rome Office Washington, DC Office Geneva Office London Office Accademia Nazionale de Lincei 11 Dupont Circle, NW 16 rue de la Voie-Creuse Flat A Museum Mansions via della Lungara, 10 Suite 900 1211 Geneva, Switzerland 63A Great Russell Street 1-00165 Rome, Italy Washington, DC 20036 Phone: **41-22-919-7920 London WC1B 3BJ, England Phone: **39-06-6872606 Phone: **1-202-478-3440 Fax: **41-22-919-7925 Phone: **44-20-7405-6661 Fax: **39-06-6878376 Fax: **1-202-238-9604 E-mail: [email protected] Fax: **44-20-7831-5651 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]
For biodata and addresses, see page 59.