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The Effect of Civil Society Opposition on the Electoral Performance of Far Right Parties in the United Kingdom, 2005-2015

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The Effect of Civil Society Opposition on the Electoral Performance of Far Right Parties in the United Kingdom, 2005-2015 Bashing the fash: the effect of civil society opposition on the electoral performance of far right parties in the United Kingdom, 2005-2015 David Landon Cole PhD University of York Politics October 2019 1 Abstract Far right parties attract opposition; that is to say, civil society groups, not formally connected with other political parties, that have as their sole or principal aim achieving a reduction in the number of people who support, and particularly vote for, far right parties. What is the effect of this opposition on far right parties? While the far right is a frequent research topic, what effect different kinds of opposition have on different kinds of far right party is understudied. Using the United Kingdom as a case study, this thesis researches how fascist and populist radical right parties are affected by confrontational and community-building styles of opposition. These are, respectively, the British National Party (BNP), United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), Unite Against Fascism (UAF), and Hope not Hate. A mixed methods approach is adopted; the first step is quantitative analysis, and the second is an in-depth analysis of the particular case of Barking and Dagenham from 2006 to 2010, with particular reference to the BNP and allowance made for UKIP. More specifically, this thesis uses regression analysis on a new data set of activity by opposition groups, with local electoral, socio-economic, and demographic information to understand what effects opposition groups have. This is supported by historical and newspaper analysis and elite interviews to understand the nature of the opposition groups and why they campaign in the manners they do, using the particular experiences of Barking and Dagenham to explain where and why effects manifest. The principal results are that opposition of the forms studied does not, in general, have substantive effects. To the extent that there are effects, they are under specific circumstances. Opposition group activity has more effect on UKIP than BNP. Consistent activity over a period of time can reduce voting for far right parties, but short bursts of activity can paradoxically increase voting for them. 2 Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................................2 Contents ..........................................................................................................................................................................3 List of abbreviations and acronyms ............................................................................................................................7 List of tables, charts, and figures ...............................................................................................................................10 Accompanying material ..............................................................................................................................................11 Interviewees .................................................................................................................................................................12 Preface...........................................................................................................................................................................13 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................................14 Declaration ...................................................................................................................................................................15 Chapter 1 - Introduction .............................................................................................................................................16 Unite Against Fascism ..................................................................................................................................... 20 Hope not Hate................................................................................................................................................... 21 Research design ............................................................................................................................................... 23 Findings ............................................................................................................................................................. 24 Importance and contribution ......................................................................................................................... 25 Chapter 2 – The far right and its opposition: a review of the literature ..............................................................27 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 27 Explaining the success of the far right.......................................................................................................... 28 Opposition to the far right.............................................................................................................................. 54 The historical literature on the development of opposition to the far right........................................... 56 Social movements ............................................................................................................................................ 58 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................ 67 Chapter 3 – Research design.......................................................................................................................................68 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 68 Variables and operationalization .................................................................................................................. 73 3 Data sources...................................................................................................................................................... 83 Methods ............................................................................................................................................................ 97 Expectations ................................................................................................................................................... 100 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................... 102 Chapter 4 - A brief history of fascism and anti-fascism in Britain ......................................................................104 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 104 Early fascism in Britain ................................................................................................................................. 105 Early opposition to fascism .......................................................................................................................... 107 The British Union of Fascists ........................................................................................................................ 108 The rise of Hitler and the end of the Third Period .................................................................................... 111 Cable Street..................................................................................................................................................... 112 Fascism and anti-fascism after WW2 ........................................................................................................... 114 The first British National Party.................................................................................................................... 115 The National Front ........................................................................................................................................ 117 Rock Against Racism and the Anti-Nazi League......................................................................................... 119 The 1980s ........................................................................................................................................................ 123 Millwall and the second British National Party ......................................................................................... 123 The late nineties ............................................................................................................................................ 126 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................... 128 Chapter 5 - The parties and the opposition groups ...............................................................................................130 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 130 The United Kingdom Independence
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