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Makings of a Multibagger an Analysis of the Best Performing Stocks Over the Past 5 Years

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Makings of a Multibagger an Analysis of the Best Performing Stocks Over the Past 5 Years The Makings of a Multibagger An Analysis of the Best Performing Stocks over the Past 5 Years The Alta Fox 2020 Summer Intern Class Project: Owen Stimpson - [email protected] Max Schieferdecker - [email protected] Elizabeth DeSouza - [email protected] Disclaimer Alta Fox Capital Management, LLC (“Alta Fox”) is an investment adviser to funds that are in the business of buying and selling securities and other financial instruments. The Makings of a Multibagger (“report”) is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security. An offer or solicitation of an investment in a private fund will only be made to accredited investors pursuant to a private placement memorandum and associated documents. The information and opinions expressed in this report are based on publicly available information. The report includes forward-looking statements, estimates, projections, and opinions on various securities, as well as more general conclusions about future operating performance. Such statements, estimates, projections, opinions, and conclusions may prove to be substantially inaccurate and are inherently subject to significant risks and uncertainties beyond Alta Fox’s control. Although Alta Fox believes the report is substantially accurate in all material respects, Alta Fox makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of this report or any other written or oral communication it makes with respect to any company in this report, and Alta Fox expressly disclaims any liability relating to the report or such communications (or any inaccuracies or omissions therein). Thus, shareholders and others should conduct their own independent investigation and analysis of the report and any securities mentioned. Except where otherwise indicated, the report speaks as of the date hereof, and Alta Fox undertakes no obligation to correct, update, or revise the report or to otherwise provide any additional materials. Furthermore, the report was created by interns who are not full-time employees of Alta Fox. It is possible their views are not consistent with the views and beliefs of Alta Fox Capital Management, LLC. Alta Fox also undertakes no commitment to take or refrain from taking any action with respect to any company listed in the report. Additional information about Alta Fox can be found on its website, www. altafoxcapital.com, the use of which is subject to a User Agreement, which can be found at www. altafoxcapital.com/disclaimer. 2 Table of Contents Section Page Numbers Sub-Section Page Numbers • Project Overview 4 0 • Our Approach 5 - 6 0 o Criteria for Company Selection 5 o Our Process 6 • Overview of Companies Analyzed 7 - 9 o Industry Representation 7 o Geographic Representation 8 o Stock Exchange Representation 9 • Company Metrics 10 - 11 o Size of the Companies 10 o Financial Metrics 11 • What Led to their Outperformance 12 - 17 o TSR Drivers 13 o EBITDA and Revenue Growth 14 - 16 o Valuation Multiples 17 • Concluding Thoughts 18 – 19 o High-Level Takeaways 18 o Specific Takeaways 19 • Individual Company Analysis 20 - 645 o Table of Contents 20 – 21 o Analysis 22 - 645 3 Back to ToC Project Overview • Analyzed the highest performing stocks over the last five years and identified their common characteristics, trends, and What We Did catalysts Why We Did It • To identify strategies to find the next set of high performing stocks • Researched the business of each company individually using a standardized 6-page slide deck format How We Did It • Compiled quantitative and qualitative data from all companies, analyzed it, and then drew conclusions based on it What We • Drew 5 high-level takeaways and a framework to screen for future multibaggers Concluded 4 Back to ToC Criteria for Selection We used Bloomberg to screen for stocks that met the following criteria: 1. Only stocks domiciled in North America, Western Europe , and Australia. 2. All sectors excluding energy, materials, and financials. 3. Total Shareholder Return (TSR) from 6/8/2015 to 6/8/2020 greater that 350%. 4. Positive trailing 12-month EBITDA. 104 5. Market Cap at 6/8/2020 was greater than 150M USD and less than 10B USD. We analyzed the 104 smallest stocks (market cap below 10B) of 6. Average daily value traded over 200,000 USD. the 130 returned from the screen because of our small and micro- 7. The latest fiscal year y/y revenue growth was positive. cap focus. 8. The stock is actively being traded and it is the primary security of the given company. 5 Back to ToC Our Process For each stock we did the following: Business and Industry Why the stock was Takeaways Overview overlooked five years • Stock price, market cap, enterprise value, and ago Financial shares outstanding today and five years ago Snapshot • NTM revenue, EBITDA, and earnings multiples five years ago and today We surmised a bear case and/or • The company’s product or service why the company was overlooked For each company we Company • The “essence of the business” five years ago – i.e. minimal room determined what the key Overview • Sales breakdown by segment and geography for growth, poor competitive takeaways were and our position, high valuation, lack of thoughts on the stock’s future. • Industry in which the company competes coverage, etc. – and outlined why • Industry structure it turned out be wrong. • Low-single digits (LSD), mid-single Industry digits (MSD), high-single digits (HSD), We also calculated what drove Overview or > 10% industry growth rate TSR: EBITDA growth, dividends, • Barriers to entry and competitive advantages and/or multiple expansion. • How the industry has evolved over the last five years 6 Back to ToC Over-Represented Industry Representation Under-Represented We looked at companies in six broad industries based on Bloomberg’s BICS industry classifications: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Technology, Communications, and Industrials. Our search excluded companies in Energy, FIG, and Materials. Industry Breakdown Relative to Investable Universe1 Consumer Staples and Unsurprisingly, Tech was the most % of IU % of Set common industry. Common traits Communications tended to not Technology 17.57% 33.65% outperform as often. such as high margins, high 4% operating leverage, and scalable Healthcare 13.96% 23.08% 5% business models enabled this high frequency. Consumer Discretionary 26.54% 21.15% A range of industrial companies 13% Industrials 21.54% 13.46% outperformed. 34% Technology Consumer Staples 9.43% 4.81% Healthcare Communications 7.17% 3.85% Consumer Discretionary Industrials The consumer industry2 is under-represented 21% Consumer Staples with 25.96% of the set while making up 35.97% of the total universe. Communications A decent amount of Consumer 23% The technology and healthcare industries are Discretionary companies did as a result of both notably over-represented. being innovative and high quality within Healthcare companies were common, their field. specifically medical device companies. The only industry that was part of the universe but was not represented in the set was Utilities. 1. All stocks which meet screen criteria not including minimum TSR of 350% 7 2. Includes Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples Back to ToC Over-Represented Geographic Representation Under-Represented We looked at companies headquartered in North America, Western Europe, and Australia. Continental Breakdown Country Breakdown Relative to Investable Universe1 % of Total % of Set 11.54% US 44.1% 28.8% 32.69% UK 10.0% 15.4% 11.5% Sweden 8.7% 12.5% 7.7% Australia 5.1% 11.5% Germany 4.8% 9.6% Norway 2.7% 7.7% 55.77% 15.4% Canada 5.3% 3.8% 12.5% France 4.1% 2.9% Denmark 1.7% 5.2% North America Ireland 0.8% 1% Western Europe 9.6% Austria 0.4% 1% Australia Luxembourg 0.3% 1% 1 28.8% Relative to Investable Universe The US is actually under-represented with 29% of the % of Total % of Set set but making up 44% of the total universe. North America 49.56% 32.69% Western Europe 45.31% 55.77% Australia UK US Australia, UK, Sweden, Germany, and Norway are notably Australia 5.13% 11.54% Canada Germany Sweden over-represented. France Norway Ireland While many great opportunities are found in NA, Italy, Switzerland, and Spain are notably excluded with Denmark Austria Switzerland investors seeking the best opportunities will no top performers but are apart of the universe need to be open to intercontinental companies. Luxembourg 1All stocks which meet screen criteria not including minimum TSR of 350% 8 Back to ToC Stock Exchange Representation The best performers were found on 15 different stock exchanges across North America, Europe, and Australia. The majority of companies were found on But there were 12 other exchanges represented on these three exchanges: the list as well: 21.15%1 11.54% 2.88% 9.62% 1.92%5 7.69% 1.92% 13.46% 6.73%3 0.96% 3.85% 0.96% 2 12.50% 3.85%4 0.96% 1Accounts for NASDAQCM, NASDAQGM, and NASDAQGS 3Accounts for both normal NYSE and AMEX stocks 4Accounts for both normal TSX and TSXV 9 2 NASDAQ Stockholm 5NASDAQ Copenhagen Back to ToC Size of the Companies While some large companies were included in the set, smaller companies were represented more often and returned larger TSRs on average. Company Sizes Investors need to be willing to look at small, 60 51 50 44 under looked, and under covered stocks to find 36 36 40 some of the biggest winners: 27 30 24 17 17 20 4 10 0 0 Number of
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