Employment Land Review
Hambleton District Council
Final Report
September 2016
Prepared by
GL Hearn Limited 280 High Holborn London WC1V 7EE
T +44 (0)20 7851 4900 glhearn.com
Employment Land Review, Hambleton District Council, Final Report
Contents
Section Page
1 INTRODUCTION 7
2 CONTEXT TO THE STUDY 11
3 DEFINING THE FEMA 22
4 ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS 33
5 DEMOGRAPHIC BASELINE 46
6 COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET 53
7 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION 70
8 ECONOMIC-GROWTH EXPECTATIONS 76
9 EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS 91
10 ASSESSMENT OF SUPPLY 100
11 CONCLUSIONS 140
Appendices
APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY 146
List of Figures
FIGURE 1: YORK, NORTH YORKSHIRE AND EAST RIDING LEP AREA 23
FIGURE 2: TRAVEL TO WORK AREAS (TTWAS) 24
FIGURE 3: RETAIL CENTRES IN CENTRAL ENGLAND (EXPENDITURE IN £MILLIONS) 26
FIGURE 4: LEISURE PROVISION IN AND AROUND HAMBLETON 27
FIGURE 5: TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 29
FIGURE 6: EMPLOYMENT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HAMBLETON DISTRICT 33
FIGURE 7: TRENDS IN EMPLOYMENT, HAMBLETON 34
FIGURE 8: COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT BY SECTION, 2014 35
FIGURE 9: LOCATION QUOTIENT OF SUB-AREAS BY SECTOR (2014) 36
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FIGURE 10: EMPLOYMENT BY SECTION, LOCATION QUOTIENT, 2013 37
FIGURE 11: CORE SECTOR OF EMPLOYMENT (2014) 38
FIGURE 12: COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT IN HAMBLETON BY BROAD SECTOR, 1984-2014 40
FIGURE 13: TRENDS IN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, HAMBLETON 1994- 2014 41
FIGURE 14: SURVIVAL OF NEWLY BORN ENTERPRISES BY BIRTHS OF UNITS IN 2009, HAMBLETON 44
FIGURE 15: SELF- EMPLOYMENT, 2004-2015 45
FIGURE 16: TRENDS IN PRODUCTIVITY (GVA) 45
FIGURE 17: POPULATION AGE PROFILE (2014) 46
FIGURE 18: PROFILE OF OCCUPATIONS OF WORKING- AGE RESIDENTS, HAMBLETON, 2014 47
FIGURE 19: SKILLS PROFILE OF RESIDENTS, 2015 48
FIGURE 20: TRENDS IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, 2005- 2015 49
FIGURE 21: EMPLOYMENT RATE, 2004- 2015 50
FIGURE 22: UNEMPLOYMENT, 2004- 2015 51
FIGURE 23: WORKPLACE- BASED MEDIAN WEEKLY EARNINGS OF FULL- TIME WORKERS 52
FIGURE 24: COMPARISON OF RESIDENTS- AND WORKPLACE BASED EARNINGS, FULL- TIME WORKERS, 2015 52
FIGURE 25: MAP PROFILING TAKE- UP OF THE OFFICE FLOORSPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2005-2015 56
FIGURE 26: NUMBER OF THE OFFICE TRANSACTIONS THE MAIN OFFICE MARKETS IN HAMBLETON, 2005-2015 57
FIGURE 27: FLOORSPACE TRANSACTED ACROSS THE MAIN OFFICE MARKETS IN HAMBLETON, 2005- 2015 58
FIGURE 28: PROFILE OF OFFICE DEALS BY SIZE, 2005-2015 59
FIGURE 29: OFFICE FLOORSPACE TAKE- UP BY SIZE, 2005-2015 60
FIGURE 30: MAP PROFILING AVAILABILITY OF THE OFFICE FLOORSPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2016 61
FIGURE 31: AVAILABILITY OF THE OFFICE SPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2016 62
FIGURE 32: OFFICE FLOORSPACE AVAILABILITY BY QUALITY, MARCH 2016 63
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FIGURE 33: TAKE- UP OF THE INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2005- 2015 64
FIGURE 34: INDUSTRIAL DEALS, 2005-2015 65
FIGURE 35: INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE TAKE-UP, HAMBLETON, 2005-2015 66
FIGURE 36: INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE TAKE- UP ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2005- 2015 66
FIGURE 37: AVAILABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2016 67
FIGURE 38: AVAILABILITY OF THE INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE IN HAMBLETON, 2016 68
FIGURE 39: ENQUIRIES BY YEAR AND SUB-AREA (2008- MAY 2016) 74
FIGURE 40: ENQUIRIES BY TYPE AND BY SUB-AREA (2008-2016) 75
FIGURE 41: ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN HAMBLETON BY SECTOR, 2011 78
FIGURE 42: FORECAST EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR, HAMBLETON, 2013-33 81
FIGURE 43: FORECAST MANUFACTURING JOBS 82
FIGURE 44: FORECAST INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS JOBS 83
FIGURE 45: FORECAST PUBLIC SECTOR JOBS 84
FIGURE 46: FORECAST RETAIL AND WHOLESALE JOBS 85
FIGURE 47: INDEXED FORECAST FINANCIAL SERVICES AND PROFESSIONAL & OTHER PRIVATE SERVICES JOBS 87
FIGURE 48: FORECAST EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR (2014-2035) 89
FIGURE 49: FORECAST NET GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT FLOORSPACE (SQ M) BY USE CLASS AND PERIOD 93
FIGURE 50: COMPLETION BASED TREND FORECAST (HECTARES) 95
List of Tables
TABLE 1: LARGEST EMPLOYMENT SECTORS IN HAMBLETON, 2014 39
TABLE 2: TRENDS IN MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT, HAMBLETON 1999- 2014 42
TABLE 3: NUMBER AND CONCENTRATION OF BUSINESSES BY SECTOR, 2014 43
TABLE 4: EMPLOYMENT LAND NEED BY USE CLASSES 72
TABLE 5: EMPLOYMENT LAND NEED BY AREA 72
TABLE 6: EMPLOYMENT IN HAMBLETON IN 2011 77
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TABLE 7: HEADLINE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FROM ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS, HAMBLETON 2014-35 80
TABLE 8: COMPARISON OF FORECASTS 89
TABLE 9: FULL TIME EQUIVALENT (FTE) JOBS GROWTH – FORECAST, 2014-35 91
TABLE 10: NET FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENT PER B-USE CLASS (SQ M) 93
TABLE 11: FORECAST NET LAND REQUIREMENTS TO SUPPORT NET FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 94
TABLE 12: CHANGE IN FLOORSPACE AND LAND REQUIREMENT BASED ON CLG STATISTICS 95
TABLE 13: UPLIFT FOR NON-B CLASS USES 96
TABLE 14: NET LAND REQUIREMENT, 2014-35 (HECTARES) 97
TABLE 15: LIST OF EMPLOYMENT AND POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT SITES REVIEWED 101
TABLE 16: CORE POTENTIAL SUPPLY OF EMPLOYMENT LAND 141
TABLE 17: POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY FROM MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT141
TABLE 18: DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPLY 142
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Quality Standards Control
The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance with our quality control requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator.
This document must only be treated as a draft unless it is has been signed by the Originators and approved by a Business or Associate Director.
DATE ORIGINATORS APPROVED September 2016 Paul McColgan Marcin Kulesza Nick Ireland Associate Director Assistant Planner Director
Limitations This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose without the prior written authority of GL Hearn; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned.
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1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Hambleton District Council commissioned GL Hearn to undertake an Employment Land Review to assess the need for and supply of employment land in the district up to 2035. This information will inform the New Local Plan.
1.2 The core purposes of this study are to:
Review the characteristics and performance of Hambleton’s economy; Assess commercial market trends and dynamics in the office and industrial sectors; Assess the supply of land capable of accommodating new B-class employment development; Forecast future needs for employment land provision within the District; Consider the implications of employment land provision in adjoining authorities; Bring the analysis together to set out the need for additional employment land provision.
1.3 Whilst the Study considers potential sites which could be considered for future employment use, decisions regarding what sites to allocate for new development will be made through the Local Plan taking account of the evidence herein, as well as other factors including decisions regarding where new housing might be located, and findings from the Sustainability Appraisal process.
1.4 The New Local Plan for Hambleton is currently under preparation, with the Issues and Options consultation being recently closed. The Call for Sites exercise has also been closed and the sites are currently assessed. According to the current timelines the Local Plan is expected to be adopted in 2019.
1.5 For practical purposes the assessment of demand for employment land and floorspace is undertaken for the Hambleton District area. As set out later in this report we have concluded that the majority of land and population within Hambleton is within a Northallerton and Thirsk FEMA. However, we recognise that the District operates in a number of overlapping Functional Economic Market Areas (FEMA) including those focussed on York and Teesside.
National Planning Policy Framework
1.6 The Study has been prepared in the context of National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which sets out Government policies for planning; and Planning Practice Guidance on Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessments and Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessments. The Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) sets out how studies such as this should be undertaken.
1.7 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March 2012 with the aim of making planning more streamlined and accessible. The NPPF set out the Government’s planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied.
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1.8 The purpose of the NPPF and the wider planning system is to contribute towards sustainable development. The policies in the NPPF set out the government’s view on what sustainable development means in practice. There are three core dimensions to achieve this:
an economic role – contributing to building a strong, responsive and competitive economy, by ensuring that sufficient land of the right type is available in the right places and at the right time to support growth and innovation; and by identifying and coordinating development requirements, including the provision of infrastructure; a social role – supporting strong, vibrant and healthy communities, by providing the supply of housing required to meet the needs of present and future generations; and by creating a high quality built environment, with accessible local services that reflect the community’s needs and support its health, social and cultural well-being; and an environmental role – contributing to protecting and enhancing our natural, built and historic environment; and, as part of this, helping to improve biodiversity, use natural resources prudently, minimise waste and pollution, and mitigate and adapt to climate change including moving to a low carbon economy.
1.9 The NPPF requires local authorities to set a clear economic vision and strategy based on an understanding of the existing business needs, likely changes in the market and any barriers to investment. This understanding should be achieved through working with the local business community, neighbouring local authorities and the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP). To this end the local authorities invited the LEP and Neighbouring authorities to a stakeholder engagement event on the 12th of April 2014.
1.10 Paragraphs 18 to 22 to the NPPF set out the Government is committed to ensuring that the planning system does everything it can to support sustainable economic growth, and that significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth through the planning system. It sets out a requirement for local planning authorities to plan proactively to meet the development needs of businesses and support an economy fit for the 21st Century.
1.11 In drawing up local plans, the NPPF requires local authorities to:
Set out a clear economic vision and strategy; Set criteria or identify strategic sites for local and inward investment; Support existing business sectors and where possible identify and plan for new or emerging sectors likely to locate in the area. Policies should be flexible enough to accommodate needs not anticipated in the plan; Plan positively for the location, promotion and expansion of clusters or networks of knowledge driven, creative or high technology industries; Identify priority areas for economic regeneration, infrastructure provision and environmental enhancement; and Facilitate flexible working practices.
1.12 Paragraph 22 in the NPPF states that planning policies should avoid the long term protection of sites allocated for employment use where there is no reasonable prospect of a site being used for
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that purpose. Where there is no reasonable prospect of a site being used for the allocated employment use, applications for alternative uses of land or buildings should be treated on their merits having regard to market signals and the relative need for different land uses to support sustainable local communities.
1.13 Paragraph 160 and 161 set out that local planning authorities should have a clear understanding of business needs within the economic markets operating in and across their area. To do this they should work with Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs), the business community, county and neighbouring authorities to understand business needs, likely changes in the market and barriers to investment. They should use their evidence base to assess the land and floorspace for economic development, including the quantitative and qualitative needs for all foreseeable types of economic activity and the existing and future supply of land.
Planning Practice Guidance
1.14 Our approach to assessing employment land demand in Hambleton follow the guidance on Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessments as set out in the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). The PPG was published by Government in March 2014 and is maintained as an online resource.
1.15 The Guidance sets out that an assessment should be undertaken to identify the future quantity of land and floorspace required for economic development uses, including both the quantitative and qualitative needs for new development; to provide a breakdown of this in terms of quality and location; and to provide an indication of gaps in the current land supply.
1.16 The assessment of need is intended to be realistic, taking account of the particular nature of that area and exploring future scenarios only where these could realistically be expected to occur. The assessment is expected to consider dynamics across the Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA).
1.17 In understanding the current market in relation to economic and main town centre uses, the Guidance outlines that plan makers should liaise closely with the business community to understand their current and potential future requirements and should take account of:
1.18 The recent pattern of employment land supply and loss to other uses (based on planning applications);
Market intelligence, including from local data and discussions with developers and property agents, recent surveys of business needs or engagement with business and economic forums; Market signals, such as levels and changes in rental values, and differentials between land values in different uses;
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The existing stock of employment land, data on take-up of sites, and public information on employment land and premises required and any evidence of over-supply and/or evidence of market failure; Information held by other public sector bodies and utilities in relation to infrastructure constraints; and The locational and premises requirements of particular types of business.
1.19 The Guidance states that employment land should be analysed through a simple typology of employment land by market segment and by sub-areas, where there are distinct property market areas within authorities. When examining the recent take-up of employment land, consideration should be made to projections (based on past trends) and forecasts (based on future scenarios) and identify occurrences where sites have been developed for specialist economic uses. Analysing supply and demand will allow Councils to identify whether there is a mismatch between quantitative and qualitative supply of and demand for employment sites.
1.20 The Guidance sets out that an assessment of future needs should be based on current and robust data. Emerging sectors that are well suited to the area being covered by the analysis should be encouraged where possible. Key evidence to consider includes:
sectorial and employment forecasts and projections (labour demand); demographically derived assessments of future employment needs (labour supply techniques); analyses based on the past take-up of employment land and property and/or future property market requirements; consultation with relevant organisations, studies of business trends, and monitoring of business, economic and employment statistics.
1.21 Evidence of need and supply then need to be brought together. The Guidance outlines that the available stock of land should be compared with the particular requirements of the area so that ‘gaps’ in local employment land provision can be identified. The increasing diversity of employment generating uses requires different policy responses and an appropriate variety of employment sites.
1.22 National policy recognises that functional economies transcend local authority administrative boundaries. Responsibilities for coordinating economic development activities now rest with the Local Enterprise Partnerships.
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2 CONTEXT TO THE STUDY
2.1 As well as the NPPF and PPG there are a number of other policy considerations to take into account when assessing employment land demand. This section summarises the wider policy context in which the Employment Land Review is being undertaken.
The Plan for Growth
2.2 The Plan for Growth was published by HM Treasury and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) in March 2011. This sets out the Coalition Government’s overarching goals for economic development against the context of the last economic recession and substantial fiscal deficit – to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth that is more evenly shared across the country and between industries.
2.3 The Plan for Growth sets out the Government’s view that over the preceding decade the UK economy has become seriously unbalanced and heavily indebted, leading to a decline in underlying economic competitiveness. Growth was concentrated in a few sectors of the economy, and in a few regions of the country; with others becoming increasingly reliant on the public sector. Moving forward, it sets out four key ambitions:
To create the most competitive tax system in the G20; To make the UK one of the best places in Europe to start, finance and grow a business; To encourage investment and exports as a route to a more balanced economy; and To create a more educated workforce that is the most flexible in Europe.
2.4 These are supported by action on a number of fronts including seeking to reduce regulation and through targeted investment, including in improving skills, supporting the housing market, encouraging innovation and allowances for capital investment. The Plan also identifies a number of key sectors which the Government wishes to support, which include: healthcare and life sciences; advanced manufacturing; construction; digital and creative industries; retail; professional and business services; the space industry; and tourism. The ambition set out was clearly for private sector-led growth and across a greater spread of sectors relative to the previous decade.
2.5 Clearly not all of these sectors are applicable to Hambleton but the intention is for local authorities where these sectors already have a competitive advantage to build on these strengths and enhance their contribution to the local economy where possible.
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York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP - Strategic Economic Plan 2014
2.6 The role of the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) is to help businesses in York, North Yorkshire and East Riding to start up, grow and become more competitive. This is expected to be stimulated through delivering “superb, sustainable, economic improvements” across the region.
2.7 YNY&ER LEP’s annual report for 2015 estimated a total value of the local economy for £21.7bn, with the largest investments being £1.7bn Potash mine, and £2bn investment in biomass and carbon capture and storage at Drax Power station. Although since publication of that document changes in government policy have resulted in Drax withdrawing from the carbon capture scheme project.
2.8 In relation to Agri-tech the creation of the National Agri-tech Innovation Campus in Ryedale include the creation of an additional 800 jobs on site and further investment in industry—led innovation assets. This reasonably could result in further employment in this area across the sub-region including Hambleton. This is primarily linked to the strength of the food-manufacturing sector in Hambleton.
2.9 The Business profile of the area is largely small business oriented. The YNY&ER LEP puts a strong focus on retaining and further supporting small and micro businesses. In 2014, the LEP directly invested in 42 small businesses, helped over 2,000 businesses to receive help, advice and other funding and consequently created 420 jobs.
2.10 Further to that, the YNY&ER LEP puts an emphasis on developing the growth corridor that runs throughout the heart of LEP area. The corridor is located around A1 (M), A19 and East Coast Mainline giving access to eight of the UK’s ten largest cities in less than two hours.
2.11 As set out in Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) the five priority areas for the LEP are:
Business Support; Food manufacturing, Agri-Tech, and Bio-renewables; Skills; Towns & Cities; and Infrastructure.
2.12 The York, North Yorkshire and East Riding (YNYER) Local Enterprise Partnership has recently agreed an expansion to its Growth Deal with the Government which will see an extra £12.1m invested in the YNYER area between 2016 and 2021. This is in addition to the £110.1m of funding committed by the Government on 7 July 2014.
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2.13 Over the lifetime of its Deal (2015-2021) the Local Enterprise Partnership estimates that up to 5,000 new jobs could be created, 5,000 new homes built and that LEP has the potential to generate £150m public and private investment.
2.14 Although this is not disaggregated to local authorities across the LEP area it does identify a number of projects which the funding will help deliver. The projects include Housing and employment growth projects along the A1/A19 growth corridor.
2.15 The YNYER LEP’s Growth Deal is part of a long term plan to devolve at least £12 billion from central government to local economies. The plan aims for every part of the country to be a motor of growth for the national economy building on the strength of the York, North Yorkshire & East Riding area.
2.16 The YNYER LEP and Central Government among other have jointly-agreed to co-invest in the following priorities and commitments related to Hambleton District Council:
Housing and employment growth projects along the A1/A19 growth corridor including Northallerton Growth Area; Doubling house building (from completions levels in 2012/13) and tripling delivery of affordable housing for YNYER area; Investing in infrastructure and in particular committing to working together proactively on longer-term rail planning and franchise specification; long-term strategic road network planning to support local economic growth; and extending superfast broadband coverage across YNYER; Ensuring that local employer priorities are fed into the operations of the new National Careers Service providers in the YNYER area.
2.17 Based on YNYER LEP Economic Review 2015/16, the specific sectors that have been identified as important to economic growth based on 2015/16 review are:
Health & social care Tourism Agriculture Food Manufacturing High value manufacturing Construction Energy Knowledge-based economy Bio-economy
2.18 The YNYER Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) constitutes the strategy that sets out the key points of priorities in relation to Hambleton, these are:
The A1/A19 growth corridor including Northallerton Growth Area/ North Northallerton Development Area is where the majority of LEP’s investment is focused. In addition the Leeming Bar Food Park is one of the growth drivers for this corridor as it continues to expand, mitigating some of the Public Sector cuts of Northallerton.
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Investments already secured for the Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar bypass transport improvement which will provide a link from the A684 north of Bedale to the A684 east of Leeming Bar and link in to the recently upgraded A1 (M). The reliability of the current transport network is crucial for the local economy and its enhancement is considered as a core LEP’s activity. In particular, Northallerton and Thirsk, among other main towns, are the hubs of economic activity and employment both for the towns themselves and for their surrounding local hinterlands. Thus they have been prioritised for proposed investment as part of the Rural Connectivity to Primary Growth Centres Programme1. The proposed investment for Northallerton is £5.6 mil and for Thirsk £3 mil. Enhancing telecommunications and broadband is one more core activity that has been set out in SEP and it covers the whole YNYER area and consequently any further improvement within Hambleton.
York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP - SEP Update 2016
2.19 In July 2016, the LEP issued a short update report to the SEP. As with the original Strategic Economic Plan the 2016 update also sets out five priority areas for the LEP to focus on. These are:
Profitable and successful business which is a focus on business support; A leader in Agri-food and bio-renewables; Inspired people which has a focus on skills; Successful and distinctive places which is around delivery; and A well connected economy which relates to infrastructure.
2.20 In relation to Agri-food and bio-renewables it is notable that they have merges the issues of agri- tech and food manufacturing. Part of this priority was to attract and secure investment including new businesses locating to key sites.
2.21 Further local changes include the identification of Thirsk station as a suitable location for station improvements.
Local Growth Deal 3 (2016)
2.22 The LEPs local growth deal bid was published towards the end of this project. It includes a focus on delivering 10,000 high value jobs and raising productivity, 5,000 homes and stimulating £500m of private investment.
2.23 The report also sets out the core differences to the SEP in the SEP update. One includes a focus towards improving productivity by creating higher value jobs to reflect the sub-regions high skills level.
1 SEP Annex B - http://www.businessinspiredgrowth.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/strategic-economic- plan-sections-3-7-plusannex.pdf
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2.24 The report also includes specific proposals, within Hambleton the Northallerton Central redevelopment is highlighted for potential funding in the region of £1m. This would be expected to contribute towards 3,000 better jobs and 500 new homes. The Northallerton Central redevelopment is identified as a mixed use redevelopment scheme including commercial, leisure and housing scheme creating 150 jobs.
Hambleton Economic Strategy 2014- 2024
2.25 The Economic Strategy adopted in 2014 outlines the actions needed to support the growth of the local economy. The Strategy was based in Hambleton’s Economic Study produced by GVA in 2014. The main economic projections set out in the Economic Strategy were based on the previous (and now updated) Regional Economic Model (REM) which were produced by Experian for the Regional Economic Intelligence Unit.
2.26 The previous version of the REM suggest that by 2024 the total employment in the Hambleton economy will stand at 44,433 people, GVA at £1,828.3m, and GVA per FTE at £41,147 without any additional intervention.
2.27 In value terms, the Hambleton economy was projected to grow over the period to 2024, by some 19%. This is a significant growth, but remains below the 22% projected across Yorkshire and Humber over the same time period.
2.28 The Strategy serves Hambleton’s shared vision “to achieve sustained growth of Hambleton’s economy and make sure our businesses are resilient”. In particular the strategy aims to assist in creating more jobs, developing great places to live and improving the quality of life for residents, businesses and visitors.
2.29 The Council aims to help local people develop the skills needed to secure the jobs that will be created by increasing the range of employment opportunities locally, strengthening business networks and improving connections between business and education to make sure the local workforce is equipped for the future.
2.30 The strategy sets out key priorities and strategies that are deemed critical to achieve the vision. The five key themes of the strategy are the following:
Business Support: the council has identified projects to support small and medium sized enterprises; enhance the engagement with key businesses; review the council owned workspaces to ensure that meets tenants’ requirements; enhance our programme of events, networking opportunities and promotion; strengthen the local supply chain and ensure that Council’s procurement processes are easy for local businesses to access. In addition the council has identified enabling projects that support the business such as improving the transport infrastructure and facilitating the delivery of appropriate housing to meet workforce growth needs.
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Inward Investment: the council aims to establish the “Hambleton – a place to grow” branding; develop comprehensive investor information packs; promote the district and its many unique selling points; undertake targeted investor approaches in key sectors; and establish a business leader programme. Driving Growth: the council will improve the key infrastructure to unlock growth potentials; develop start-up business, enterprise in education and skills development programmes; deliver apprenticeship and graduate support programmes; enable better access to training through links with universities; and review the capacities of the designated industrial parks to meet the future forecasts. To enable growth the council will explore regional opportunities with neighbouring authorities and develop enterprise in education programmes. Vibrant Market Towns: the council will deliver Bedale Gateway Car Park; install free Wi-fi in all the high streets; deliver bespoke town centre investment plans; and ensure that the town centre parking requirements are met. In addition the council will explore the potential of establishing Business Improvement Districts in the main town centres. Supporting Activity: the council will identify and secure additional investment including EU Funds; improve communication, public relationships and social media management plans; co-ordinate investment by working closely with partners; develop internal systems to support the delivery of the Economic Strategy; and investigate the potential of delivery mechanisms to progress some projects.
2.31 The Hambleton Investment and Delivery Plan is currently being prepared by the Council. This will provide the list of targets and objectives and the proposed timetable and funding requirements. The Investment and Delivery Plan will be updated annually as part of the monitoring and implementation process.
Hambleton’s Economic Study 2014
2.32 The study analysed the context of growth and the opportunities for the development of the local economy in 2014. It also provided a strategy and delivery recommendations for the following decade.
2.33 The study noted that value of the Hambleton economy, as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) data, was £1.54bn. Against that measure, it was clear that the recession had had a largely ‘one year effect’ within the Hambleton economy, with a sharp fall in GVA between 2008 and 2009, but recovery from that date onwards.
2.34 The analysis identified five functional Economic Areas: Bedale; Easingwold; Northallerton; Stokesley; and Thirsk which were draw on travel to work data from the 2001 Census, with the 2011 Census data not available at that time.
2.35 The key opportunities and threats identified by the study for the period between 2014 and 2024 were:
The key sectors of the economy constituted one main opportunity for future high value growth and competitiveness; however the scenario of minimum strategy intervention may encourage the employment contraction that was identified for 2024.
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The protection and growth of the existing diverse business base which spanned small and large, urban and rural businesses and all within a variety of sectors was a great opportunity. However the lack of “headroom” in the labour market and the increase of the in-commuting workers could create challenges for recruitment and potential barriers in attracting new businesses. The vibrant market towns that maintain and build on the key service centre role that each plays in the context of their respective catchments and hinterlands. However the analysis identified some infrastructure constraints in key business clusters that might create future threats for their growth. The growth for the rural area of Hambleton that could create economic growth prospects for the wider district. However potential public transport funding cuts might constraint the rural diversity as it would require either relocating of workforce or commuting by car. In addition there was the risk of not providing adequate superfast broadband in remote rural business locations.
Adopted Policy Framework
Core Strategy
2.36 The Hambleton Core Strategy was adopted in 2007, the Development Policies in 2008 and the Allocations and Proposal Maps in 2010.
2.37 Policies CP10 The scale of new employment development, CP10a The scale of new employment development by sub-area and CP11 Distribution of new employment development of the Core Strategy establish the principles for scale and distribution of employment land. These policies state that the Council and its partners will ensure that 75 hectares of new land is brought forward for employment development in the period 2005 to 2021.
2.38 The Allocations DPD plans for around 45 hectares of new employment land (33 hectares had already been approved by the time the Allocations DPD was adopted). Based on the employment land review published in 2014 the district headline demand was between 34.07 hectares and 47.36 ha while supply was assessed to be 52.52 ha (excluding Severfield Reeve).
2.39 Policy CP12 Priorities for employment development establishes the priorities for the nature and type of employment development and the measures to support growth. In particular priority will be given to sustaining the development of key economic sectors or clusters; providing the conditions and support for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises to become established and grow; developing the District’s skills base; supporting the development of growth sectors; and supporting transport investment that will aid economic development.
2.40 Policy CP15 Rural regeneration states that support will be given to the social and economic needs of rural communities by encouraging:
i. retention or expansion of appropriate businesses outside of the Service Centres and Service Villages;
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ii. re-use or replacement of suitable rural buildings for employment generating uses; iii. provision of live-work units; iv. diversification of the agricultural economy; v. appropriate tourism related initiatives, including schemes which improve the accessibility of tourist assets both within and outside the District; vi. recreation uses appropriate to a countryside location; vii. small scale renewable energy projects and businesses to serve the industry; viii. arts and crafts based industries; ix. technological developments needed to facilitate employment development in rural areas; x. improvement of public transport links to Service Centres and employment areas.
Development Policies DPD
2.41 The Development policies provide detailed planning policies that in addition to the Core Strategy constitute the main planning framework for any future development. Policy DP16 Specific measures to assist the economy and employment includes thirteen priorities in relation to developing and sustaining the economy of Hambleton such as diversification in the range of economic activities; enhancement of the main industrial clusters; increase manufacturing productivity; provision of high quality sites and premises suitable for B1 uses in town centre locations where possible; developing institutions and commercial links with Tees Valley and North East; support tourism sector and the transport investment that enables local economic growth.
2.42 Policy DP17 Retention of employment sites seeks to retain sites and premises that are currently used (or were last used) for employment and/or allocated for employment uses. Permission for any use that may have an adverse effect on an area’s primary purpose for employment will not be granted, unless:
i. the supply and variety of available alternative employment land is sufficient to meet District and local requirements; or ii. evidence can be provided that no suitable and viable alternative employment use can be found, or is likely to be found in the foreseeable future; or iii. there would be substantial planning benefit in permitting an alternative use, for example in removing a use which creates residential amenity problems such as noise or odours; or iv. economic benefits to the area would result by allowing redevelopment, for example by facilitating the retention of a business in the area through funding a new site or premises.
2.43 In addition the policy states that where redevelopment of employment land is accepted, particular concern will be given towards ensuring the future viability of individual businesses (e.g. tenants of an estate or premises) that might be displaced.
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2.44 Policy DP18 Support for smaller businesses/working from home highlights the importance to the local economy of developing small businesses through the support of:
i. provision of workshops for B1 and B2 uses; ii. provision of managed workspace for uses in growth sectors in appropriate locations, particularly within the Service Centres, including provision of facilities tailored to particular economic sectors, and with associated proposals to provide development space as firms grow; iii. provision of advice, in particular for business planning, marketing and information technology; iv. provision of staff training; v. home working and live-work units, provided that the development creates no precedent for alternative uses, should the employment use cease; vi. financial incentives linked to these measures.
2.45 Policy DP25 Rural Employment states that employment development in locations outside Development Limits will be supported (and permission granted for such development, if also acceptable in terms of other LDF policies), if all the following apply:
it is small in scale; ii. it comprises conversion and re-use or replacement of existing rural buildings of sound construction, or appropriate extensions of buildings or existing uses which are otherwise acceptable in terms of other LDF Policies; iii. the development is not capable of location within a settlement with Development Limits, by reason of the nature of the operation or the absence of suitable sites; iv. it is supported by an appropriate business case which demonstrates that support will be provided to the local economy, which in turn would help sustain rural communities; v. the development would not adversely impact on the economy of the Service Centres.
2.46 Policy PD26 Agricultural Issues supports agriculture (and permission granted for related development, if also acceptable in terms of other LDF policies) by measures that include:
i. encouraging farm diversification which helps to sustain the existing agricultural enterprise; ii. promotion of sustainable forms of agriculture which include environmentally sensitive, organic, and locally distinctive food production, together with its processing, marketing and retailing; iii. support for integration of agricultural activities, including for slaughter, processing and packaging facilities on farms which serve clusters or co-operatives of producers; iv. guiding the development (including the design and siting) of new agricultural buildings (including agricultural workers’ dwellings) to locations which are sensitive to their environment.
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Allocations DPD
2.47 This document concerns the site specific allocations that form one of the Development Plan Documents and sets out sites for development (e.g. housing and employment) and defines Development Limits for the main settlements in the area of Hambleton outside the North York Moors National Park. This plan covers the period up to 2026.
2.48 The key allocation in Hambleton is the North Northallerton Development Area which is subject to an outline application (for which there is a resolution to grant) for land east of Darlington Road. The outline application includes 3,250 sqm of employment uses including B1 Commercial, B2 General Industrial and B8 Storage and Distribution and 900 dwellings, a primary school, shops and restaurants, medical facilities, sport and recreational areas.
2.49 The outline application does not include the land north of standard way industrial estate, it remains an allocation for employment in the current LDF.
2.50 Another key employment allocation that has not yet come forward is Cocked Hat Farm part of South West Thirsk Area. The allocation is employment related with 5 ha of B1 and 8 ha of either B2 or B8 Class Use.
Council Plan 2015-2019
2.51 The Council also produced the Council Plan (2015-19) which sets out how the Council will deliver services to the community, its vision and core foundations for the next five years.
2.52 The development of a new Local Plan is pivotal for the delivery of the four key priorities set out in the Council Plan, these are:
Driving Economic Vitality, Enhancing Health and Wellbeing, Caring for the Environment, Providing a Special Place to Live.
Emerging Local Plan
2.53 The council has started preparing the New Local Plan. Based on the current Local Development Scheme the Plan should be adopted late 2018. Between January and February 2016 the council consulted on Issues and Options.
2.54 The Issues and Options Consultation Draft sets out key economic strategies, policies and initiatives that will impact the local plan and successively strengthen the existing economic base as well as develop high value growth sectors. These include:
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The Government’s emphasis on higher productivity to drive growth and raise living standards (‘Fixing the foundations: Creating a more prosperous nation’) , The Chancellor’s intention to harness the enormous economic potential of England’s rural areas (10 point plan for boosting productivity in rural areas), The Northern Powerhouse initiative to establish and connect the North of England as a global economic region, The Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) for York, North Yorkshire and East Riding (YNYER) which aims to create 20,000 jobs and deliver £3billion growth, The SEP priorities which include supporting profitable small businesses and being a global leader in food manufacturing, agritech and bio renewables, The Council Plan places a key emphasis on driving economic vitality, The Council’s Economic Strategy seeks sustained growth of Hambleton’s economy.
2.55 To achieve the above, the following economic issues were raised as a part of the initial engagement exercise:
Ensuring that the existing strengths of the local economy and the diverse business base, including tourism and agriculture sectors are fully utilized, Diversifying the existing economic sectors, including tourism and agriculture, Addressing infrastructure constraints, particularly ones related to the broadband and transport, Ensuring a good balance of workforce by providing them with a sufficient social infrastructure.
Summary
At both the national and regional level economic growth is not only desired but expected. The current government policy supports targeted investment, including in improving skills, encouraging innovation.
Nationally a number of key sectors of growth have been identified including advanced manufacturing; construction; professional and business services; and tourism. More locally a number of additional sectors have been identified as priorities by the LEP including Agriculture; Food Manufacturing; Knowledge-based economy and Bio-economy
There are a number of initiatives which will help support growth in Hambleton and the wider region. This includes transport investment along the A1/A19 corridor and the Leeming Bar Bypass, enhancing telecommunications and ensuring housing growth is in tandem with economic growth.
It is anticipated that improvements to the key infrastructure will unlock growth potentials; develop start-up business. The Council is also seeking to develop education and skills training, review current industrial stock, improve communication and marketing of the district. The Council are also seeking to protect and grow the existing diverse business base.
A number of targets have been identified within existing policy documents including the LEP Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) for York, North Yorkshire and East Riding (YNYER) which aims to create 20,000 jobs and deliver £3billion growth, across the wider area by 2020.
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3 DEFINING THE FEMA
3.1 The purpose of this section is to assess what the relevant Functional Economic Market Area(s) (FEMA) Hambleton District sits within. The Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) on Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessments sets out what housing and functional economic market areas are, and provides guidance on how these should be defined.
3.2 The PPG indicates that the Functional Economic Market Area should be considered in the following way:
‘The geography of commercial property markets should be thought of in terms of the requirements of the market in terms of the location of premises, and the spatial factors used in analysing demand and supply – often referred to as the functional economic market area. Factors for consideration in defining an areas FEMA include:
extent of any Local Enterprise Partnership within the area; travel to work areas; housing market area; flow of goods, services and information within the local economy; service market for consumers; administrative area; catchment areas of facilities providing cultural and social well-being; transport network’.
3.3 There is no standard approach or data source which can be used to define a FEMA. The approach intended is to look at and consider these issues, and assess what could be considered locally appropriate.
3.4 In relation to identifying the FEMA not all of the key indicators are readily available and there is no appropriate source of data. The flow of goods and services is particularly difficult to quantify on a robust basis, given available datasets.
3.5 We have however reviewed the extent of the LEP; administrative geographies; the transport network; and the local and sub-regional retail and leisure facilities. This will encompass the service market for consumers as well as the facilities providing cultural and social well-being.
Local Enterprise Partnerships
3.6 Hambleton forms part of the York, North Yorkshire and East Riding Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) area, which also covers the following local authorities: Craven, Harrogate, Richmondshire, Ryedale, Scarborough, Selby, York and East Riding.
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Figure 1: York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP area
Source: GL Hearn, 2016
3.7 The York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP is considered to be the largest LEP in the country. It is predominantly rural and also consists of two large national parks. The YNY&ER LEP is also home to the Potash mine, the largest planned private sector investment in the north of England.
Travel to Work Areas
3.8 Our starting point for considering commuting patterns was the 2011 Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) which were produced by the ONS and Newcastle University in 2015. These are the only official and nationally defined Travel to Work Areas. The University and ONS’ “Travel to Work Areas”2 paper (December 2015) sets out the criteria for defining TTWAs. Figure 2 shows the travel to work areas (TTWAs) across Yorkshire and the Humber.
“that at least 75% of the area's resident workforce work in the area and at least 75% of the people who work in the area also live in the area. The area must also have an economically active population of at least 3,500. However, for areas with a working population in excess of 25,000, self-containment rates as low as 66.7% are accepted as part of a limited ‘trade-off’ between workforce size and level of self-containment.”
2 “Travel to Work Areas” (University of Newcastle and ONS 2015) - http://www.ncl.ac.uk/curds/publications/documents/RR2015-05.pdf
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3.9 Hambleton District falls across three separate TTWAs: Northallerton, York and Teesside. These areas further adjoin Harrogate and Leeds City Region TTWAs. Northallerton TTWA covers the area of Northallerton and further extends to Thirsk and much of Richmondshire. The York TTWA covers City of York, Selby and extends into Hambleton and Easingwold. The Teesside TTWA covers Middlesbrough, Stockton, Redcar and Cleveland and the North East of Hambleton in Stokesley.
Figure 2: Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs)
Source: ONS, 2015
3.10 Looking at the 2011 census data at a local authority level reveals a self-containment rate in Hambleton (the percentage of residents who also work in Hambleton) of 59.8%. The major commuting flows from Hambleton are to Harrogate district (6.8%), York (6.2%), Middlesbrough (5.2%) and Stockton-on-Tees (4.3%). For comparison the self-containment rates in York is 75%, 71% in Harrogate, 60% in Stockton and 55% in Middlesbrough.
3.11 The relatively low rate of self-containment within Hambleton reflects the fact that it is peripheral to a couple of major employment centres in York and Teesside. These areas draw labour force from a wide area and as such reduce the ability for neighbouring authorities such as Hambleton to reach the anticipated levels of self-containment. It is likely that these flows are mainly short flows from
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Easingwold and Stokesley to York and Teesside respectively. With the major settlements of Northallerton and Thirsk being relatively well self-contained.
3.12 In Hambleton, the largest groups commuting to work from outside the District are from York (7.6%), Richmondshire (5.3%), Harrogate (5.0%) and Stockton-on-Tees (4.3%). Again this demonstrates the two way relationship with these larger employment centres.
Housing Market Area
3.13 GL Hearn was commissioned to publish a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for Hambleton District Council. In identifying the housing market area (HMA) we reviewed three different sources of information as outlined in PPG, these were: house prices and rates of change; household migration and search patterns and contextual data including travel to work areas. We identified Hambleton as a single Housing Market Area. Although we recognised that there are overlaps at the edge of the district with other HMAs.
3.14 This reflected the analysis of Census migration data from 2011. This set out that the most significant migratory flows involving Hambleton are with Richmondshire and Harrogate and to a lesser extent York. However Hambleton on its own did not reach the typical 70% self-containment rate threshold expected of a housing market area. Again this is linked to the difficulty incurred by being close to two major urban areas.
3.15 The triangulation of the sources suggested that Hambleton operated across a number of overlapping HMAs. The southern part of the district is linked to York and the north eastern part linked to Middlesbrough. The north west of the District also has a close interrelationship with Richmondshire.
3.16 However, the remainder of the District, including the main towns of Northallerton and Thirsk, is quite distinct. We therefore considered it appropriate to look at Hambleton as a single HMA while recognising overlaps with adjoining areas.
Flow of goods, services and Service Market for Consumers
3.17 There is a paucity of the major retail facilities across the district and therefore there is some reliance on external areas for the flow of goods. As shown on the Figure 3, key retail centres are located in Harrogate, Leeds, York in the south and Middlesbrough in the north.
3.18 For retail and leisure provision we have taken a high level approach to identify major retail centres which may draw trade from Hambleton residents. Figure 3 sets out the major retail centres in the north of the county and their expenditure expressed in £millions.
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Figure 3: Retail Centres in Central England (Expenditure in £millions)
Northallerton
Thirsk
Source: CACI Retail Footprint (2011)
3.19 There are a number of major centres surrounding Hambleton. The closest major retail centre is in York, followed by Middlesbrough, and Leeds. Although of a smaller scale parts of Hambleton are also within easy reach of Harrogate and Darlington centres. All of the above centres are well connected to Hambleton either by train or car.
Administrative areas
3.20 Hambleton District is a two- tier area with the main administrative centre in Northallerton. The district is also located in North Yorkshire County which provides a range of services such as Education. This county council is also headquartered in Northallerton.
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Catchment areas of facilities providing cultural and social well-being
3.21 In terms of gauging local leisure provision we have sought to identify the following in Hambleton and the wider area:
Cinemas; Theatres; Museums; and Other Leisure facilities such as Leisure Centres.
Figure 4: Leisure Provision In and Around Hambleton
Source: GL Hearn
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3.22 As illustrated in Figure 4 there is relatively little commercial leisure provision within Hambleton. The facilities which do exist are of a small scale and consists of a few museums and cinemas concentrated in Thirsk and Northallerton.
3.23 We identified several major clusters of leisure facilities in a close proximity to Hambleton District. The highest concentrations can be found in Leeds, followed by York, Darlington and Middlesbrough. Further to that, there are a large number of dispersed museums to the North and North- East of the District.
3.24 Both the retail and leisure provision illustrate a reliance on the surrounding major towns and cities. This points to an economic relationships which extend beyond the District’s boundaries in a number of different directions, particularly for those on the periphery of Hambleton.
3.25 Education in Hambleton is the duty of the County Council. Primary admissions relate to much smaller areas and are not particularly useful for identifying FEMA. For secondary education the County Council have divided the area up into five areas. These cover:
Craven; Harrogate Northallerton Scarborough and Ryedale; and Selby
3.26 The Northallerton area stretches from Shipton-by-Beningbrough in the south, to Croft in the north, and Great Ayton in the north east, to Arkengarthdale in the north west. Within Hambleton each of the main towns has its own secondary school, in addition Richmond School and St Francis Xavier School in Richmond, and Risedale College in Catterick and Wendsleydale in Leyburn are also included in the Northallerton area. Each secondary school has its own catchment of primary schools.
Transport Network
3.27 We have also reviewed the major transport infrastructure in Hambleton and the immediately surrounding areas. This influences commuting and to access goods and services. There are five networked train stations in the District, situated in the following locations: Kildale, Battersby, Great Ayton, Northallerton and Thirsk. Although Kildale and Battersby are within the North York Moors National Park and thus fall outside the plan area.
3.28 Northallerton train station operates two trains an hour southbound to York on which continue on to either Manchester Airport and Liverpool (both via Leeds and Manchester) and an infrequent train to
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London. Northallerton train station offers one train per hour to Middlesbrough and an infrequent service north to Newcastle and Edinburgh.
3.29 Thirsk train station is the next busiest in the district and has an hourly service northbound to Middlesbrough and Newcastle and southbound to Leeds, York, Huddersfield and Manchester Airport. There is also an infrequent direct service to London and Edinburgh. The other stations on the district are on a branch line connecting Northallerton with Middlesbrough.
Figure 5: Transport Infrastructure
Source: GL Hearn, 2014
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3.30 As well as those train lines illustrated in Figure 5 the district also has a heritage railway running from Northallerton to Redmire in Richmondshire taking in stations at Ainderby, Scruton, Leeming Bar, Bedale, Crakehall and Jervaulx. Although there is a timetabled service it does not run on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.
3.31 There are no airports in the District, the nearest Airports to the north of the District would be Durham Tees Valley near Darlington, offering an access to 200+ destinations; majority of these are regional or short European flights.
3.32 The nearest major airport to the south is Leeds-Bradford Airport. Considered to be the largest airport in the Yorkshire, Leeds-Bradford was the 9th busiest airport in England outside London in 2015. The airport had almost 3.5m passengers using it in 2014.
3.33 The western part of the District is bisected by the A1(M) motorway. This motorway enables quick access to and from the north and its major cities of Newcastle and Sunderland and to the south locations such including Leeds, Sheffield and eventually London.
3.34 Other major routes in the district include the A19 which links York with Middlesbrough via Thirsk. The road also continues to Doncaster and Newcastle. The A61 provides a key link from Thirsk to Leeds and Harrogate and the A168 links the A19 at Thirsk with the A1(M). Despite being the major settlement of the district, road links in Northallerton are relatively poor with no primary roads linking to the town.
Conclusions on FEMA
3.35 This section has considered how the Functional Economic Area(s) (FEMA) in Hambleton operate. Throughout the analysis we can see that there is a complex set of relationships at play across Hambleton. There are clearly economic relationships with urban areas immediately north and south of the District.
3.36 As a part of Hambleton SHMA carried out early 2016 we concluded that the District should be considered as a Housing Market Area on its own. When considering FEMA, we have looked at the wider array of factors, including Local Enterprise Partnerships areas, retail and leisure facilities and transport routes.
3.37 Commuting flows provide important evidence of the functional relationships between different areas. The Planning Practice Guidance directs planning authorities to consider commuting flows as a source of contextual information about the spatial dynamics of the local labour market.
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3.38 In Hambleton, the largest group commuting from outside the District is from York (7.6%), Richmondshire (5.3%), Harrogate (5.0%) and Stockton- on- Tees (4.3%). On such basis we can conclude a strong interrelationship with the York, Teesside and Harrogate.
3.39 The ONS TTWA areas also illustrate the influence of the neighbouring areas to the north and south of the District. According to this source Hambleton is situated within several Travel to Work Areas (TTWA), including Northallerton, York and Teesside although the majority of the district is a HMA in its own right. Links with neighbouring areas and key cities surrounding the district are strong. This can be particularly visible in the case of York and Harrogate, as well as Richmondshire and Middlesbrough. The District is defined as being a part of one of the largest Local Enterprise Partnership in the country. This would indicate sub-regional levels of dynamics within the district.
3.40 Although less precise, the wider indicators considered also highlight a reliance on the major cities surrounding the district for a number of retail and leisure services. There is a notable reliance on York and to a lesser extent Leeds from those residing in the south and Middlesbrough for those in the north of the district.
3.41 Service provision is marginally better in the main towns of Northallerton and Thirsk giving them a level of self-sufficiency. This area is also quite self- contained in migratory and commuting terms. The rest of the District is pulled in a number of different functional directions, with the peripheral parts of the District having strong links to the neighbouring urban areas.
3.42 In our view, it would be appropriate to consider a Hambleton FEMA recognising that there are overlaps with much larger FEMA outside of the district.
A Sensible and Pragmatic Way Forward
3.43 Recognising this complex set of inter-relationships which exist between different parts of the District and surrounding areas / larger settlements is more helpful than seeking to artificially simplify the picture by seeking to assess a dominant relationship or aggregate the District as a whole with one FEMA or another. In doing so the construct would be artificial and would fail to recognise the different relationships which are evident in different parts of Hambleton.
3.44 The Planning Practice Guidance accepts that functional geographies may not align well with local authority boundaries. It also accepts that there may be some overlap between these areas, and the evidence would point to this being the case in the peripheral parts of the District.
3.45 On the basis of the evidence presented it would seem appropriate, and indeed pragmatic, for this study to focus on assessing the specific development needs of Hambleton District. It is important that a clear picture of development needs for the District is developed to inform the New Local Plan.
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3.46 For the purposes of the New Local Plan it is important that there is consistency in the approach which is used to identifying housing and economic development needs, and thus whilst different parts of the District fall within different HMAs/ FEMAs the preparation of a single assessment is appropriate.
3.47 The inter-relationships identified between Hambleton and adjoining authorities in this section are however relevant in respect of the Duty to Cooperate, particularly in respect of housing provision and economic land provision. The evidence suggests that the strongest links are with York, Harrogate, Richmondshire and the Teesside authorities.
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4 ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS
4.1 This section provides an overview of the economic and labour market dynamics in Hambleton. The latest census indicated that 48,641 people were employed in the district. Figure 6 provides an overview of key employment concentrations across the District; these can be found in Stokesley, Bedale, Northallerton and areas south from Thirsk including Dalton.
Figure 6: Employment Locations across the Hambleton District
Source: GL Hearn
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4.2 Overall 36% of the district’s total jobs are located in the Northallerton sub-area, with 18% in both the Stokesley and Thirsk sub-areas. The remaining jobs are located in Bedale (14%) and Easingwold (13%).
4.3 Figure 7, illustrates the gradual growth in employment in the district. There have been periods of minor contractions namely in 1994, 2006 and 2007-8 which can be related to the economic performance at the national level. Overall, employment in the district has grown by 22,283 jobs since 1981, an 82% increase over the 32 year period. This can be considered as a relatively strong level of employment growth.
Figure 7: Trends in Employment, Hambleton
60,000
50,000 49,741 49,413
42,923 40,000
30,000 27,130
20,000
10,000
-
Source: Cambridge Econometrics and GLH
Economic Structure
4.4 As illustrated in Figure 8 the latest Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) identifies the largest employment sectors in the district as health, manufacturing, accommodation and food services and public administration and defence. Each of these account for at least 8% of the district’s total employment.
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Figure 8: Composition of Employment by Section, 2014 Property , 1.7% Financial & Mining, quarrying Info & comms, insurance, 1.3% & utilities , 1.2% 1.9% Agriculture etc, Motor trades , 0.4% 2.0% Health , 13.2% Transport & storage, 3.7% Arts & Recreation, Manufacturing, 4.3% 11.9% Wholesale , 5.4%
Professional & technical , 5.6%
Business admin & Hospitality, 10.0% support, 5.8%
Construction , Public admin & 6.2% defence , 9.7% Education , 6.9% Retail , 8.9%
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2015
4.5 In absolute terms manufacturing employment is concentrated in the Bedale and Thirsk (including Dalton) sub-areas. The construction industry is located primarily in Northallerton as are the retail, health and public admin and defence sectors. The Stokesley area (including those parts of the district within the North York Moors National Park) is where the hospitality industry (accommodation and food services) is at its strongest, employing over 1,300 people. No other sectors employ more than 1,000 people in a single sub-area.
Location Quotient
4.6 We have also examined the relative strength of each sector within each sub-areas of the district. Figure 9 illustrates the location quotient for each sector in each sub-area against the district as a whole. As illustrated below we can see that:
Stokesley has a relatively high representation of agriculture, business admin and support services, and professional, scientific and technical employment. It has a relatively low representation of employment within public admin and defence, health and manufacturing. Northallerton has a relatively high representation of public admin and defence and mining and utilities and health. It has a relatively low representation of employment within agriculture, manufacturing and business admin and support services. Bedale which includes Leeming Bar has a relatively high representation of employment within manufacturing, transport and storage and motor trade. It has a relatively low representation of employment within agriculture, mining and utilities and public admin and defence.
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Thirsk has a relatively high representation of employment within manufacturing, wholesale and transport and storage. It has a relatively low representation of employment within mining and utilities, public admin and defence and health. Easingwold has a relatively high representation of employment within information and communication, hospitality and financial and insurance. It has a relatively low representation of employment within public admin and defence, motor trades, property and retail.
Figure 9: Location Quotient of Sub-Areas by Sector (2014)
Arts & Leisure
Health
Education
Public admin & defence
Business admin & support services
Professional, scientific & technical
Property
Financial & insurance
Info & comms
Hospitality
Transport & storage
Retail
Wholesale
Motor trades
Construction
Manufacturing
Mining & utilities
Agriculture etc
- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
Easingwold Thirsk Bedale Northallerton Stokesley
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2015
4.7 For a number of the other sectors no particular sub-area has a major under or over representation. Of the major employment sectors the relative strength in health is highest in Northallerton and lowest in Stokesley, manufacturing is highest in Bedale and lowest in Northallerton, hospitality is
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highest in Stokesley and lowest in Northallerton and public administration and defence is highest in Northallerton and lowest in Thirsk.
4.8 Figure 10 uses location quotients to compare the relative concentration of employment in Hambleton with the wider LEP area, region and country. A figure of over 1 indicates that there is a higher proportion of employment in the given sector in Hambleton than is the case across the country. A figure less than 1 indicates a lower concentration.
4.9 The concentration of public administration and defence employment in Hambleton is 1.83 times the LEP area, 2.03 times the region and 2.17 times the national level. Overall, Hambleton has a particular concentration of employment in:
Public administration and defence; Construction; Wholesale; Manufacturing; Motor trades.
Figure 10: Employment by Section, Location Quotient, 2013
Public admin & defence Agriculture etc* Wholesale Construction Manufacturing Mining & utilities Property Motor trades Business admin & support services Mining & utilities Professional services Arts & rec Hospitality Retail Wholesale Education Transport & storage Financial & insurance 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
vs. LEP vs. region vs. E&W
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2013
4.10 Figure 10 excludes employment within Farm agriculture. Data from other sources suggest that this is considerable in Hambleton.
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4.11 We can also identify the main employment sectors for each ward in the District. This is illustrated in Figure 11 below. In seven wards the largest employer is the accommodation and food services sector. This includes many wards in the eastern parts of the district. The retail sector is the main employer in a further five wards.
Figure 11: Core Sector of Employment (2014)
Source: BRES, 2016
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Detailed Analysis
4.12 We have also analysed the more detailed BRES sectoral data. Most of the largest employment sub-sectors remain those in the public sector. The largest is the general public administration activities sub-sector which would include the operations of the District and County Councils. Other major public sectors are related to healthcare, social work, education and policing.
4.13 The largest private sector employer is public houses and bars sub-sector along with hotels and similar accommodation. Retail is also a major employer in the district as is the manufacturing of Ice Cream. The latter largely relates to R&R Ice Cream in Leeming Bar which contributes 2.5% of all employment in the district.
Table 1: Largest Employment Sectors in Hambleton, 2014 % of Total Employment Employment General public administration activities 2,290 5.8% Hospital activities 1,470 3.9% Primary education 1,393 3.9% Public houses and bars 1,330 3.8% Other social work activities without accommodation 1,156 3.5% Hotels and similar accommodation 1,103 3.4% Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or 972 tobacco predominating 3.1% General secondary education 753 2.5% Public order and safety activities 744 2.5% Manufacture of ice cream 725 2.5% Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2013
Employment Growth by Sector
4.14 Figure 12 tracks how the structure of employment in the Hambleton has changed over the past 30 years. None of the sectors recorded a loss of employment over this time. In absolute terms employment growth has been focused in:
Finance and Business Services (+2,800); Manufacturing (+2,700); Construction (+2,100); Other Services (+2,100).
4.15 The largest percentage increases have been in the other services sub-sector (304% increase) , information and communication (+293%) and Utilities (Electric, gas, and water) (+287%).
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Figure 12: Composition of Employment in Hambleton by Broad Sector, 1984-2014
60,000
50,000 Other services Government serv.
40,000 Fin. & business serv. Inform. & commun. Accom. & food serv. 30,000 Transport & storage Distribution Construction 20,000 Elect., gas, water etc Manufacturing Mining & quarrying 10,000 Agriculture
- 1984 1994 2004 2014
Source: Cambridge Econometrics and GL Hearn
4.16 Figure 13 profiles more recent changes in employment in each sector between 1994 and 2004 and 2004 and 2014. Overall employment change between 1994 and 2004 was positive, with 2,780 additional jobs being created. In the most recent ten year period (for which data is available), 2004 to 2014 there was an even larger growth in employment (+ 3,710).
4.17 The largest decrease up to 2003 can be observed in the construction sector (-1,490). Conversely the largest increase (1,474) was in governmental services. The more recent growth (2003-2013) was driven by significant growth in the finance and business services sector (+1,493). The second largest growth over the same period is in government services (+1,149) followed by manufacturing (692).
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Figure 13: Trends in Employment Growth, Hambleton 1994- 2014
Other services
Government serv.
Fin. & business serv.
Inform. & commun.
Accom. & food serv.
Transport & storage
Distribution
Construction
Elect., gas, water etc
Manufacturing
Mining & quarrying
Agriculture etc
-2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 change 1994- 2004 Change 2004- 2014
Source: Cambridge Econometrics and GL Hearn
Manufacturing
4.18 The manufacturing sector forms a large part of the local economy and can be a substantial driver of wealth creation within local economies. Table 2 outlines trends in employment within manufacturing sub-sectors. This shows that the most significant changes can be seen in the activity of metal products production. Between 2004- 2014 there was a growth of 484 employees in this sector.
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4.19 The largest loss of manufacturing employment can be observed in the textiles and clothing sector (-91 employees). This is followed by transport and equipment (-86 employees) and food, drink and tobacco (-70 employees), although this last sector is showing some signs of recovery. Overall there has been a 468 job increase in manufacturing employment since 2004, although since 1999 there has been an absolute decline.
Table 2: Trends in Manufacturing Employment, Hambleton 1999- 2014 change 2004- 2014
1999 2004 2009 2014 no. %
Chemicals 310 179 142 167 - 12 -7% Food, Drink & 2,732 2,216 1,948 2,146 - 70 -3% Tobacco Fuel Refining 5 0 0 3 3 1652% Machinery & 105 92 79 55 - 37 -40% Equipment Metal Products 409 421 661 905 484 115% Other Manufacturing 330 380 500 607 227 60% Printing and Reproduction of 60 85 101 150 65 77% Recorded Media Rubber, Plastic and Other Non-Metallic 238 241 223 218 - 23 -9% Mineral Products 213 122 57 31 - 91 -74% Textiles & Clothing Transport Equipment 221 125 74 39 - 86 -69% Wood & Paper 272 188 137 195 7 4%
Source: REM and GL Hearn
Business Base
4.20 The ONS UK Business Counts database is an extract of the Inter- Departmental Business Register. The database identifies 4,915 local unit enterprises in Hambleton. These are defined by ONS as the overall business, made up of all the individual sites or workplaces. It is defined as the smallest combination of legal units (generally based on VAT and/or PAYE records) that has a certain degree of autonomy within an enterprise group.
4.21 Table 3 assesses the stock of business units by sector. It compares the composition of businesses to the LEP area as well as regional and national breakdown. The evidence suggests a concentration of businesses in the following sectors in comparative terms:
Agriculture, forestry and fishing; Public administration and defence;
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Mining quarrying and utilities.
4.22 Hambleton broadly reflects the split at the LEP level. Sectors such as manufacturing, wholesale, mining, quarrying and utilities and property and finance & insurance have relatively similar representation in both areas.
4.23 The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector accounts for 27.5% of the total number of business units in the area. This is compared to 17.5% at the LEP level. This is likely to be due to the high number of farms in the rural areas, although individually these tend to be micro employers.
Table 3: Number and Concentration of Businesses by Sector, 2014 Location Yorks and YNYER Quotient: Hambleton The UK LEP Hambleton Humber vs. UK No. % % % %
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1,350 27.5% 17.5% 7.3% 6.4% 4.28 Mining, quarrying & utilities 40 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 1.67 Manufacturing 245 5.0% 5.2% 7.3% 5.6% 0.89 Construction 445 9.1% 11.1% 12.2% 11.8% 0.77 Motor trades 155 3.2% 3.2% 3.7% 3.0% 1.04 Wholesale 225 4.6% 4.1% 5.1% 4.6% 1.00 Retail 300 6.1% 7.9% 9.8% 8.4% 0.73 Transport & storage 105 2.1% 3.0% 4.1% 3.2% 0.67 Accommodation & food 270 5.5% 7.2% 6.7% 5.9% 0.94 services Information & communication 130 2.6% 4.3% 5.2% 7.9% 0.33 Financial & insurance 65 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 0.67 Property 165 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 0.91 Professional, scientific & 655 13.3% 13.6% 14.0% 17.5% 0.76 technical Business administration & 270 5.5% 6.0% 6.1% 6.9% 0.79 support services Public administration & defence 40 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 3.17 Education 65 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 0.80 Health 150 3.1% 3.5% 4.5% 4.3% 0.72 Arts, entertainment, recreation 240 4.9% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 0.75 & other services Total 4,915 100% 100% 100% 100% 1.00
Source: ONS UK Business Counts, 2014
4.24 Figure 14 provides an overview of the survival rates for newly born enterprises by births of units in Hambleton. It can be observed that 92% of newly born enterprises in Hambleton remain in business after the first year. This is slightly below the YNY&ER figure (93%) yet above the regional
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(91%) and national (91%) levels. This trend can be broadly observed over the three year survival period.
4.25 In terms of longer term business unit survival (5 years), data shows that the highest rate across all of the areas can be found in Hambleton (47%) followed by LEP (46%), Yorkshire and the Humber (42%) and England and Wales (42%).
Figure 14: Survival of Newly Born Enterprises by Births of Units in 2009, Hambleton
100%
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
0% Survivalof Newly Born Enterprises by
Births ofUnits 2009 in and their Survival 1-year survival 2-year survival 3-year survival 4-year survival 5-year survival % % % % %
Hambleton York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP Yorkshire and the Humber England and Wales United Kingdom
Source: ONS Business Demography, 2014
Self-Employment
4.26 A high percentage of self-employment is a good indicator of a resilient economy. The ONS Annual Population Survey indicates that 16% of the population aged 16- 64 in Hambleton are self- employed. This can be compared to York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP area (12%), Yorkshire and the Humber (9%) and England and Wales (10%). In part, this can be attributed to/reflected in the large percentage of older age groups in the population which have set up their own companies and have moved to the district as a lifestyle choice.
4.27 Figure 15 illustrates how these rates have changed since 2004. There has been a notable growth in the self- employment since 2006, particularly increasing following the start of the economic recession in 2008. This change is not reflected at the LEP, regional or national levels which in general are more reliant on larger businesses.
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Figure 15: Self- Employment, 2004-2015
20% 18% 16%
14%
64 64 who are self
12% - 10%
employed 8% 6% 4% 2%
% Population Aged % Population Aged 16 0% 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Hambleton York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP Yorkshire and The Humber England and Wales
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Productivity
4.28 We have further sought to analyse changes in the productivity levels since 2000. Figure 16 provides a productivity trend benchmarked to the values from 2000. It can be seen that Hambleton had a 16% increase over the period to 2014. By comparison productivity in the Yorkshire and the Humber region increased by 31% and in England and Wales the growth was around a third (33%).
Figure 16: Trends in Productivity (GVA)
1.4 1.3
1.2 1.1 1 0.9
Index (1=2000) 0.8 0.7 0.6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hambleton Yorkshire and the Humber England and Wales Source: Oxford Econometrics, 2015
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5 DEMOGRAPHIC BASELINE
5.1 This section provides an overview of the demographic profile of Hambleton and compares it to the figures at the LEP, regional and national levels. The population in Hambleton in the most recent mid-year estimates was 89,828.
Age Structure
5.2 The age profile of the population of the District is slightly different to that seen across the region and nationally; the main differences are the higher proportion of people aged 60 and over and the low proportion of children and younger adults. The population profile in the District is however similar to that seen across North Yorkshire.
Figure 17: Population Age Profile (2014)
Hambleton 15.4% 15.2% 15.5% 22.9% 20.2% 10.8%
North Yorkshire 15.9% 15.8% 16.4% 22.4% 19.1% 10.4%
Yorkshire/Humber 17.7% 20.0% 18.8% 20.0% 15.3% 8.1%
England 17.8% 19.4% 19.9% 19.9% 14.9% 8.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Under 15 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 and over
Source: ONS 2014 mid-year population estimates
Skills and Occupation Profile
5.3 Hambleton (10%) has a smaller proportion of people in high end occupations such as managers, directors and senior officials when compared to results at the LEP level (12%). Although Hambleton is broadly comparable to results for Yorkshire and the Humber (9%) and England and Wales (10%).
5.4 However, there are a much higher proportions of residents working in professional occupations in Hambleton (23%) than in the LEP area (17%) and across the region (20%) or country (17%). Overall, the three highest occupation levels account for more than half (52%) of the residents in employment within Hambleton.
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Figure 18: Profile of Occupations of Working- Age Residents, Hambleton, 2014
elementary occupations
process, plant and machine operatives
sales and customer service occupations
caring, leisure and other service occupations
skilled trades occupations
administrative and secretarial occupations
associate prof & tech occupations
professional occupations
managers, directors and senior officials
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Yorkshire and The Humber England and Wales York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP Hambleton Source: ONS Annual population Survey, January- December 2014
5.5 Conversely low skilled occupations such as elementary occupations, process, plant and machine operatives and sales and customer service jobs account for only 13% of the residents in employment. This compares to 25% at the national level and 30% across the region.
5.6 Figure 19 provides an overview of the qualifications profile of the residents. Hambleton has the highest proportion of residents qualified to level 4 (undergraduate degree level or equivalent) (41.6%) when compared to LEP (33.7%), region (35.6%) and county (29.7%) figures. This trend is consistent across all of the qualification levels.
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Figure 19: Skills Profile of Residents, 2015
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
64
- 70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
% % ofpopulation aged 16 20.0%
10.0%
0.0% NVQ4+ NVQ3+ NVQ2+ NVQ1+ other no qualifications qualifications (NVQ) (NVQ) Hambleton York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP England and Wales Yorkshire and The Humber Source: ONS Annual population Survey, January- December 2014
5.7 Figures for those with no qualifications are not available at the District level. The last know data for Hambleton is from 2013 when 6.3% of the working age population had no qualifications. This is below the wider comparators at present.
Economic activity
5.8 Figure 20 illustrates the trends in economic activity in Hambleton. The economic activity rate describes the proportion of residents aged 16- 64 who are in employment, full- time education or in search of work. We have used data from the Annual Population Survey.
5.9 The economic activity rate for Hambleton is currently 83%, the highest figure across all of the areas under consideration although this masks major fluctuations; The LEP has an 81% economic activity rate, Yorkshire and the Humber 77% and England and Wales 78%.
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Figure 20: Trends in Economic Activity, 2005- 2015
88% 86% 84% 82%
80%
64
- 78% 76%
Aged Aged 16 74% 72% 70% 68%
% Economic Activity % Economic Activity RatePopulation of 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hambleton York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP England and Wales Yorkshire and The Humber
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
5.10 Economic Activity in Hambleton peaked in 2009- 2010 followed by a sharp decline and successive stabilisation. The last year of data shows a notable improvement. On average economic activity in Hambleton has been around 81%.
5.11 The employment rate describes the proportion of people aged 16- 64 who are in employment. It is a subset of the wider economic activity rate. Figure 21 shows how the employment rate has changed over time.
5.12 The employment rate in Hambleton fell from 80% in 2009-10 to 74% in 2012-13. Currently 81% of Hambleton’s population aged 16- 64 are in some form of employment. This is notably higher than the equivalent figures for the LEP area (78%), region (72%) and country (73%).
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Figure 21: Employment Rate, 2004- 2015
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60% 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hambleton York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP Yorkshire and The Humber England and Wales Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
Unemployment
5.13 The unemployment rate in Hambleton, according to the latest Annual Population Survey for the year ending September 2014, (using the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition), was 5.2%. This is slightly higher than the equivalent figure at the LEP level (5.0%), however significantly lower than the regional (8.2%) and national results (6.7%).
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Figure 22: Unemployment, 2004- 2015
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0% 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hambleton York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP
Yorkshire and The Humber England and Wales
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
5.14 Due to some limitations arising from the available datasets, we were unable to recreate the entire unemployment trend for Hambleton. Nevertheless, we can observe an increase in all areas during the recessionary period post 2008. Although the latest figure indicates a significant drop in levels of unemployment from 8.4% to 5.2%. This is broadly reflected at the LEP, regional and national levels.
Earnings
5.15 Figure 23 profiles gross median weekly earnings of full- time workers in Hambleton for 2010 and 2015. In 2015, earnings of those working in Hambleton were £8 above the LEP average, £20 below the regional averages and £63 lower than the national figures. These workplace statistics indicate that productivity (GVA per job) is likely to be below regional and national averages.
5.16 Between 2010 and 2015 earnings nationally increased by 5%, suggesting earnings growth fell below inflation (and thus fell in real terms). This issue is even more concerning locally as earnings in Hambleton only grew by 4%.
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Figure 23: Workplace- based Median Weekly Earnings of Full- Time Workers
£540 £520 £500
£480
£460
£529 £528 2010
£440
£502
£499
£486 2015
£420
£467
£460
£459 £448 £400 £442 £380 Hambleton York, North Yorkshire and England and United Yorkshire and The Humber Wales Kingdom East Riding LEP
Source: ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
5.17 Figure 24 compares earnings of those working in different areas (workplace-based) with those living in them (residents-based). In Hambleton, there is a small difference between the workplace- based and residence-based earnings, with resident earnings being on average £13 more than the workplace ones. Comparing this to LEP area the results show significantly higher gap, with £27 higher values for residence based earnings.
Figure 24: Comparison of Residents- and Workplace based Earnings, Full- Time Workers, 2015
£540
£520
£500
£480
£530
£529
£528 £528
£460
£486
£486 £481
£440 £480
£467 £459 £420 Hambleton York, North Yorkshire and England and United Kingdom Yorkshire and The Humber Wales East Riding LEP
workplace- based Residence- based
Source: ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
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6 COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET
6.1 This section provides an assessment of the office and industrial property market in Hambleton. This assessment has been undertaken using a variety of sources including take-up and availability data from Estate Gazette’s (EGi) database, a review of the latest commercial property literature, and through stakeholder consultation.
National Economic Conditions
6.2 Nationally, economic growth has been above the long term trend over the last year and a half supported by growth across a range of different parts of the economy. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its Economic and Fiscal Outlook in November 2015. GDP growth remained unchanged at 2.4% for 2015, having been previously forecast at 3.0%. Since July 2015 report, growth was revised upwards for 2016 and 2017, reflecting both population growth and Government’s decision to slow the pace of fiscal tightening. Growth is slightly lower in the final year of the forecast as it is assumed that demographic trends will cause the employment rate to edge lower.
6.3 While the economic growth in 2015 has continued in line with the OBR’s projected growth rate, the OBR recognises significant uncertainty in its economic forecast due to the Greek debt crisis, slowing Chinese growth and a number of policy measures, including Austerity policies.
6.4 The OBR reports that employment growth has remained relatively strong in early 2015, while productivity has continued to disappoint. It forecasts that employment will increase by 1.1 million over the next six years.
6.5 The introduction of the National Living Wage on top of the National Minimum Wage for over 25s is expected to impact on the labour market. However at present the likely response of firms is unknown, creating significant uncertainty. The OBR assumes that increased labour costs will lead to a reduction in total hours worked of around 0.4%. This impacts equally on average amount of hours worked and employment levels – the OBR estimates it leading to around 60,000 fewer people in employment. However, since the reduction in hours worked will be concentrated among people earning lower wages the OBR assumes a smaller reduction in total economic output of around 0.1%.
6.6 According to the report prepared by Cushman and Wakefield, the key driver behind the growth in the number of commercial real estate transactions is a healthy consumer and business confidence and the positive outlook for the future economy. In the absence of the sustained real wage growth, the economy is more likely to rely on low interest rates and house price growth in order to support household confidence. The low interest rate environment and stable income yields appear attractive
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to new investors, yet some buyers are more cautious due to the rapid growth in the values over the last few years.
6.7 CPI inflation returned to zero in June. This is well below the Monetary Policy Committee’s 2% inflation target and largely reflects unusually low contributions from energy, food, and other imported goods prices. In August 2015 the Bank of England’s stated approach was that, with some underutilised resources remaining in the economy and with inflation below the target, the Committee intends to set monetary policy in order to ensure that growth is sufficient to absorb the remaining economic slack so as to return inflation to the target within two years.
6.8 The Committee projects UK-weighted world demand to expand at a moderate pace. Private domestic demand growth in the United Kingdom is expected to remain robust. Household spending has been supported by the boost to real incomes from lower food and energy prices. Wage growth has picked up as the labour market has tightened and productivity has strengthened. As a result business and consumer spending has increased, helped by improving credit conditions. Robust private domestic demand is expected to produce sufficient momentum to eliminate the margin of spare capacity over the next year or so.
Brexit
6.9 This ELR reported was at an advanced stage at the time of the Brexit referendum. Clearly the result will have an impact on the national and local economies. However, the full impact will only be fully understood once the negotiated position of the UK and EU relationship is finalised.
6.10 In the short term the weakening of the pound could result in benefits for the manufacturing industry (especially those looking to export). However this is being outweighed by restricted investment within commercial enterprises caused by the wider uncertainty.
6.11 Oxford Economics have undertaken some research as to what the potential impacts could be. This work looked at nine different scenarios based on alternative assumptions about the trade relationship that could be eventually negotiated between the UK and the EU (for example deals similar to the Norway option, Swiss option, or Turkish option). Moreover consideration was given to the UK government’s potential reaction to the new-found policy freedom – taking account of the impact of regulatory, migration and fiscal policy choices on economic conditions.
6.12 The best case scenario or in other words the most optimistic still sees a 0.1% decline in GDP in real terms compared to a baseline of continued EU membership. The worst-case scenario (most pessimistic) is associated with a decline of almost 4% in real time GDP compared to a baseline of continued EU membership.
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6.13 In summary the Oxford Economics forecast scenarios all had a number of commonalities:
Whichever trade settlement is adopted and whichever scenario comes to pass, there will be a long-term structural impact on the UK and EU economies. Across the board, all scenarios show a degree of trade reduction in which UK trade volumes fall as a share of GDP. This reflects the increased cost of trade between the UK and the EU, which encourages firms in both the UK and the rest of the EU towards domestically-produced goods. The boost to net trade from a weaker pound is expected to be more than offset by a slowdown in consumer spending growth and a decline in business investment. Employment levels fall as cautious firms cut back on hiring. Employment levels are 1.3% below base case by the end of the 2022. The post-referendum forecast shows a strong increase in GDP growth after 2019. This assumes aggressive action from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and fiscal support aided by the scrapping of the current goal of a budget surplus by 2019-20 – an approach supported by Theresa May.
6.14 In general, the industrial sectors (excluding mining and quarrying) are at greatest risk. This is particularly the case in relation to the manufacturing and construction sectors who are expecting to face the largest impact of Brexit. The service sector is also likely to be impacted with the financial services industry most at risk.
6.15 It should however be noted that while none of the scenarios provide positive news for post-Brexit economic growth, the forecast impacts are relatively modest compared to the previous recession in 2008.
Office market review
6.16 BNP Paribas Real Estate reports that the UK’s economy is back on track. The economy has recovered considerably since 2013 with current overall economic performance the highest since the 2008 recession. The property market in 2014 saw the best performance since 2005.
6.17 At the national level, the office market performed strongly in 2015. According to Knight Frank, the total take-up for the top ten cities in the country at the end of October accounted for 4.8m sq ft, which is the highest total figure since 2010. The rental level remained stable during the last quarter across the country.
Hambleton office market
6.18 This section provides an in-depth assessment of the Hambleton office market. This information is taken from the EGi and Focus databases which collates information provided to them by commercial agents. Although these are the most comprehensive lists available not all transactions are included. For example, there have been large expansions in the industrial stock within Leeming Bar over this period which do not feature in this analysis.
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Figure 25 provides an overview of the location of take-up activity over the last 10 years. It can be observed that the largest amount of the office transactions were carried out in Northallerton and Thirsk. A large office transaction (above 1,850 sq m) took place in all of the sub areas during the period with the exception of Bedale.
Figure 25: Map profiling take- up of the Office Floorspace across Hambleton, 2005-2015
Source: GL Hearn
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6.19 Figure 26 shows the number of deals in each sub- area over the 10 year period to 2015. The highest number of deals recorded during the 10 year period was in Thirsk (29 transactions) followed by Northallerton (27) and Stokesley (13). The least activity was in Bedale, where only 4 transactions were recorded between 2005- 2015.
Figure 26: Number of the office transactions the main office markets in Hambleton, 2005- 2015
35
30 2015 2014 25 2013 2012 20 2011 2010 15 2009 2008 10 2007
5 2006 2005 0 Bedale Easingwold Northallerton Stokesley Thirsk
Source: EGi, CoStar and GL Hearn
6.20 Figure 27 provides a detailed breakdown of the size of office transactions in each sub- area of Hambleton. The highest volume of the office floorspace traded between 2005 and 2015 was in Northallerton (10,049 sq m), followed by Thirsk (5,525 sq m) and Easingwold (3,624 sq m). The smallest volume of floorspace transacted was in Bedale (111 sq m).
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Figure 27: Floorspace transacted across the main office markets in Hambleton, 2005- 2015
12,000 2015 10,000 2014 2013 8,000 2012 2011 6,000 2010
4,000 2009 2008 2,000 2007 2006 0 2005 Bedale Easingwold Northallerton Stokesley Thirsk
Source: EGi, CoStar and GL Hearn
6.21 Figure 28 profiles the number of deals for office space recorded by EGi in Hambleton over the past decade by different size bands. An average of 9 deals were recorded each year. The strongest performance could be observed during the post-recession period, with 19 deals carried out in 2013 which was most active year to date. This was followed by 16 deals in 2014 and 11 transactions in 2012.
6.22 The majority of transactions involved trading smaller office spaces, usually below 185 sq m floorspace. In 2015 there was a total of 4 deals involving offices larger than 465 sq m floorspace which might suggest growing market confidence in the area.
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Figure 28: Profile of Office Deals by Size, 2005-2015
20
18
16
14
Undisclosed 12 < 185 sq m 10 185 - 465 sq m
transaction 8 465 - 1850 sq m
6 > 1850 sq m
4
2
- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: EGi, CoStar and GL Hearn
6.23 The average annual office floorspace uptake in Hambleton was 2,069 sq m over the 2005- 2015 period. Figure 28 profiles take- up over time and by floorspace in each size band. This shows a strong activity in the office market in 2015.
6.24 A large part of the office deals that year involved transacting units above 1,850 sq m floorspace. Further to that, there was a notable activity in the larger 465- 1,850 sq m units in 2012, followed by several smaller acquisitions of less than 185 sqm in 2013.
6.25 The largest transaction over the last decade involved a freehold purchase of Alverton Court in Northallerton. This was a 5,083 sq m acquisition by North Yorkshire Police in excess of £4,500,000. Because this was a major transaction by a public sector occupier it is unlikely to be repeated going forward. Therefore, considering annual take- up without this transaction, we calculated an average annual take- up at 1,607 sq m.
6.26 Also in 2015, the second largest office deal took place. This was a freehold interest in Telware House, a 2,403 sq m floorspace office in Thirsk. The achieved price for this unit was £1,230,000.
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Figure 29: Office Floorspace Take- Up by Size, 2005-2015
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000 < 185 sq m 5,000 185 - 465 sq m 465 - 1850 sq m 4,000 > 1850 sq m 3,000
2,000
1,000
- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: EGi, CoStar and GL Hearn
Office Availability
6.27 Figure 30 maps the location of available office space across the District as recorded in EGi and CoStar databases in March 2016. This includes new builds, new build units under construction as well as second- hand grade B office space. Currently there are 20,982 sq m of available office floorspace in the district. We have further broken this down on the basis of the size and location of each unit.
6.28 Most of the available floorspace is located in Northallerton. It is the only place across the district with an available unit above 1,850 sq m. The town also offers a broad range of different unit sizes.
6.29 The remaining available office floorspace is distributed cross the District including in Stokesley, Thirsk and Easingwold. There are also a few available units around Bedale, including unit of a size between 465- 1,850 sq m.
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Figure 30: Map profiling availability of the Office Floorspace across Hambleton, 2016
Source: GL Hearn
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6.30 In total there is currently 20,982 sq m of available office floorspace in the district. The highest availability of the office space can be found in Northallerton (a total of 9,535 sq m). More than a half of the total office floorspace available in Northallerton comprises units smaller than 185 sq m (5,500 sq m).
6.31 The second highest level of available floorspace is in Thirsk, with 3,750 sq m of floorspace. Only 1,281 sq m of the total available office floorspace is in Easingwold.
6.32 The largest single office unit which is being marketed is in the Bedale sub-area, the 1,161 sq m Crabtree Hall Business Centre. This is being marketed both as a whole and for individual units. On further enquiry it is unlikely that this is accurate but the agent marketing the site does so on a referral basis and it is ‘theoretically possible”. Removing this supply would reduce the availability in Bedale to below that in Thirsk.
Figure 31: Availability of the Office Space Across Hambleton, 2016
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000 < 185 sq m sq m sq 185 - 465 sq m 4,000 465 - 1850 sq m > 1850 sq m 2,000
-
Source: EGi, CoStar and GL Hearn
6.33 A large percentage (54%) of the available office space is second hand Grade B accommodation as shown in Figure 32. Only 250 sq m of the available floorspace in the district is New Build followed by 150 sq m new office space under construction. The remaining 16,270 sq m are undisclosed.
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Figure 32: Office Floorspace Availability by Quality, March 2016
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000 New - New Build (under 2,500 construction)
sq m sq 2,000 New - New Build (existing)
1,500 Second-hand Grade B
1,000
500
- > 1850 sq m 465 - 1850 185 - 465 sq < 185 sq m sq m m
Source: EGi, CoStar and GL Hearn
Industrial Market Review
6.34 Nationally, the industrial market continues to perform well with year-on-year increases in the take-up of floorspace. Typically industrial floorspace includes both B2 and B8 use classes. The latest full year figures for the UK show that total take-up in 2015 was down 11% on 2014 figures.
6.35 The industrial sector continues to be dominated by the warehouse and distribution uses. There is a growing demand for large scale logistics/ distribution warehouses nationally. This is, in part, driven by the continuing growth of the on-line retail sector and increasing customer expectations for same- or next-day delivery.
6.36 At a national level, JLL statistics for the big box logistics sector indicate aggregate take-up across the UK of 89.3m sq ft of which 61.5m sq ft were in units of a size 1,000 to 99,999 sq ft. The composition of demand by sector for the 1st half of the year (nationally) was:
Retailers: 49% Logistics Companies: 28% Manufacturers: 12% Other: 11%
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6.37 At the national level, JLL’s research points to a current supply of 198.2m sq ft at the end of 2015 – a low level equivalent to just under a years’ worth of stock. This is partly a reflection of a lack of development over recent years, related to the wider economic conditions.
6.38 The Yorkshire and Humber economy is in transition as it moves from an economy that relied on large scale heavy industry, manufacturing, textiles and agriculture to a more diverse market. However, manufacturing and other traditional industries are still important for the region and although the numbers employed in this sector have fallen. Manufacturing currently accounts for just under a fifth of the region’s economy.
Figure 33: Take- up of the Industrial Floorspace across Hambleton, 2005- 2015
Source: GL Hearn
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6.39 Figure 33 illustrates the spatial distribution of the industrial take-up across the District over the last 10 years. The highest concentration of industrial transactions can be seen in Thirsk and Northallerton, The largest transactions involving take- up of the units over 1,850 sq m were carried out in North Northallerton and Easingwold (Shipton By Beningbrough).
6.40 The number of industrial deals in each size band in Hambleton is set out in Figure 34. On average 19 deals were recorded per annum in Hambleton. Almost 32% of the deals recorded over the last decade were in medium (185-465 sq m) size units. Size details for 14% (26 transactions) of the deals were not disclosed.
6.41 The highest number of deals was recorded in 2012 (32 transactions). This was followed by 30 deals in 2015 and 24 in 2014. The worst performing years were 2006 and 2005 with only 5 deals each year.
Figure 34: Industrial Deals, 2005-2015
35
30
25
Unknown 20 < 185 sq m 185 - 465 sq m 15
transaction 465 - 1850 sq m 10 > 1850 sq m
5
- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: EGi, CoStar and GL Hearn
6.42 Figure 35 provides a breakdown of the industrial floorspace transacted over the last decade. The highest percentage of floorspace (41%) was transacted in units 1,850 sq m or above. The majority of these transactions were carried out in 2015. The second largest size percentage (40.2%) of the floorspace transacted was units between 465 and 1,850 sq m in size.
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Figure 35: Industrial Floorspace Take-up, Hambleton, 2005-2015
35,000
30,000
25,000 < 185 sq m 20,000 185 - 465 sq m 15,000 465 - 1850 sq m
10,000 > 1850 sq m
5,000
- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: EGi and CoStar/ GL Hearn
6.43 Figure 36 illustrates the distribution of industrial floorspace take-up in Hambleton District since 2005, as recorded by EGi and CoStar databases. The most activity in the industrial floorspace market can be seen in Northallerton, with a total of 39,265 sq m of the floorspace transacted during the last 10 years. This is followed by 27,250 sq m in Easingwold.
Figure 36: Industrial Floorspace Take- Up across Hambleton, 2005- 2015
45,000 unknown 40,000 2015 35,000 2014 30,000 2013 25,000 2012 20,000 2011 2010 15,000 2009 10,000 2008 5,000 2007 0 2006 Bedale Easingwold Northallerton Stokesley Thirsk Source: EGi, CoStar and GL Hearn
6.44 On average 9,300 sqm of industrial floorspace per annum was transacted in Hambleton between 2005-2015.
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Industrial Availability
6.45 As of March 2016, there was 95,942 sq m of industrial floorspace available and being actively marketed on either EGi and CoStar across Hambleton District. Almost 66,297 sq m of the available floorspace was in large units (above 1850 sq m). Further to that, 17,793 sq m was in the size range between 465 and 1850 sq m size. Only 4,939 sq m of the available floorspace is in the units below 185 sq m.
Figure 37: Availability of Industrial Floorspace across Hambleton, 2016
Source: GL Hearn
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6.46 Figure 37 illustrates the spatial distribution of the available industrial floorspace across the District as registered on EGi and CoStar databases March 2016. The highest concentration of the available floorspace can be observed around Thirsk, followed by Easingwold.
6.47 Figure 38 below shows a breakdown of the available floorspace across the sub-areas in Hambleton. Thirsk had the highest level of available industrial floorspace (70%), with 67,159 sq m, of which 55,615 is in large industrial units (above 1,850 sq m). This is driven by the largest available unit in the district which is the second-hand grade B space at Dalton Airfield building (37,161 sq m).
6.48 The second highest level of industrial floorspace availability can be found in Easingwold, with 20,097 sq m available across the town and wider area. Similar to Thirsk, the majority of the available floorspace was in medium or larger units (465 sq m or above). Further to that, 4,006 sq m of the industrial floorspace was available in Northallerton, 3,732 sq. m is in Bedale and the remaining 948 sq m is in Stokesley.
Figure 38: Availability of the Industrial Floorspace in Hambleton, 2016
80,000 70,000 60,000
50,000
40,000 < 185 sq m sq m sq 30,000 185 - 465 sq m 465 - 1850 sq m 20,000 > 1850 sq m 10,000 -
Source: EGi, CoStar and GL Hearn
Implications
6.49 The market analysis shows that Northallerton is the largest office market in Hambleton. There has been an increase in the office market activity since 2012 following the post-recession downturn. The upturn in the last few years has been driven by the growth in number of small size office transactions, with the size of the units usually below 185 sq m. The majority of the office space transacted over the last decade involved second hand grade B office space.
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6.50 There is a strong market for industrial and warehouse/ logistics space in the area. Although the most recent recession had a substantial impact on the volume of the transacted floorspace. Data for the last 10 years show a gradual post 2008 decrease in the market activity up to 2011 when the amount of floorspace transacted starts to pick up.
6.51 Compared to office demand there is a more even distribution of demand for industrial floorspace across the district. Although the largest amount of industrial floorspace transacted over the last decade was in Northallerton this was closely followed by Thirsk and Easingwold. All of the areas had more than 25,000 sq m industrial floorspace take- up over the last 10 years.
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7 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION
7.1 As part of this employment Land Review we have consulted with a number of local stakeholders regarding demand for employment floorspace in Hambleton. There was a limited response to this consultation however we did receive more in depth feedback from the following:
Stephen Brown – Dodds Brown Sam Wyman – Hansteen Matt Brown – George F. Whyte Fran Barrigan – Strutt and Parker
7.2 We have summarised and anonymised the kind findings from these conversations below.
7.3 Demand for employment floorspace from Hambleton tended to be from indigenous or local businesses rather than inward investment opportunities. It also tended to be from smaller businesses looking to expand.
7.4 Sectoral demand was mixed, the office market was generally quite slow although there has been an upturn in recent years. This was being driven by local demand for professional service based businesses. The industrial demand was from light industrial uses. Although in some cases there appeared to be demand for higher end manufacturing.
7.5 Locational demand tended to be within the main market towns of Thirsk and Northallerton. There was a particular demand for out of town locations.
7.6 One commentator indicated that demand in Stokesley was driven by a lack of supply in Teesside. There were also elements of smaller businesses moving to the area to improve the quality of environment or to suit lifestyle choice of the proprietors. Because of this Stokesley was seen as potentially being a high value office park location in the long term.
7.7 There were a number of notable gaps in the supply market. In particular move on office space (2,000 sq ft - £5,000 sq ft) and smaller flexible industrial units (1,000 – 2,000 sq ft). There was also a need to supply mixed b-class accommodation for light industrial uses with good quality offices.
7.8 Although there was notable vacancy within the existing stock this was not considered suitable for modern office use. The large oversupply included a large number of offices above retail premises, some which had been vacant for up to 8 years with the average vacancy period around 12 months. This stock could be considered for alternative uses such as community space or conversion to residential.
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7.9 Most of the respondents suggested there was a need for flexible office and industrial units. Because of the rural nature of the district there was a lack of public transport and therefore there was a need to provide premises with Car Parking. Other modern facilities such as air conditioning and secure, reliable broadband was also a must. There was also a need to provide single floor open plan offices.
7.10 Although seen as a gap in the market the Council do have the Momentum office location which is suitable (and specifically designed) for move on space. However, there were concerns that the location had poor design with no common entrance, poor levels of parking and a lack of flexibility within the units. This has led to a level of vacancy within the unit itself.
7.11 A good example was the Kirkleatham Innovation Centre in Redcar as the site had a mix of industrial units, well laid out and to a reasonable spec. The office space had decent core and there was plenty of parking available.
7.12 There is also some pressure on the existing stock from office to residential development and much of the industrial stock is being converted to non-b class uses such as trade counters, gyms etc.
7.13 There was some consensus on rental values, with higher values tending to be secured in the larger market towns:
Office – High end £10 – £12 per square foot, lower standard £5 - £10. It was noted that some offices above retail premises were let on a “whatever they can get “ basis with some poorer stock being rented to charities for free. Industrial – Larger stock £2.-£3.50 per square foot, general provision - £3.50- £7 per square foot although some smaller lock ups can achieve slightly more
7.14 There was also an apparent lack of demand for commercial warehousing (+25,000 sq ft). Although the strategic links afforded by the A1(M) could allow a Strategic B8 class market to be created. An example of this is at Scotch Corner where supply has result in demand when there previously was no market. Values for this could be up to £5 per square foot.
7.15 Because of the lower values being achieved it was thought that new build employment floorspace had challenging viability unless there was some form of public sector intervention. Although there has been some new build floorspace delivered landlords have had to lower their expectations or reduce build quality.
7.16 Within Northallerton there was some concern that local businesses were being put off from locating to the north of the town because of the issues with the level crossing.
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Hambleton Industrial Estate Review 2016
7.17 We have also drawn for recent consultation with local businesses undertaken by the Council’s Economic Development Team. The consultation was supplementary to the Economic Strategy and focused on the third key theme of “Driving Growth” in the district.
7.18 The Industrial Estate review aimed to highlight the land and floorspace requirements of businesses with the District’s 28 industrial estates. A total of 672 businesses were asked to respond to questions relating to their land requirements, premises suitability, expected growth, finance, workforce and infrastructure. We have summarised their responses below.
7.19 The overall employment land demand is illustrated in Table 4 below. In total the respondents indicated a need for 88ha of employment land. Half of the need was identified by companies requiring B2 General Industrial Class Use.
Table 4: Employment Land Need by Use Classes
Employment Land Uses Required Land (ha) % Manufacturing – B1c/B2 44 49% Warehouse - B8 12 14% Sui Generis 11 12% Other 22 25% Total 88 100% Source: Hambleton DC, 2015
7.20 We have also examined the distribution of demand within Hambleton. Demand in Thirsk accounts for 62% of the demand. This mainly derives from three businesses within the Dalton Old Airfield Industrial Estate which combined required an additional 31ha of land.
Table 5: Employment Land Need by Area
Local Area Required Land (ha) % Northallerton 11 12% Thirsk 55 62% Easingwold 0 0% Stokesley 9 10% Leeming Bar 13 15% Bedale 0 0% Total 88.25 100% Source: Hambleton DC, 2015
7.21 Because of the nature of the survey (i.e. only focusing on industrial estates) there was no demand for office accommodation within the District highlighted. We must also note that this is only a survey basis and not in its own right a justification to plan for this level of land.
7.22 It does however give an indication that substantial indigenous growth may come forward and that some flexibility to facilitate this growth may be appropriate. It also gives an indication that
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Leeming Bar, Thirsk and Northallerton sub-areas all have substantial potential demand for additional employment land if this ever transpires.
HDC Economic Development
7.23 We have also consulted with the Council’s Economic Development team who manage inward investment enquiries and manage the Council’s own employment, office and industrial estates. Again the potential indigenous growth was highlighted to us.
7.24 The Economic Development team noted that the district had not traditionally actively marketed itself as an inward investment location. They were hopeful that should this change the district could be reasonably expected to attract inward investors. This was seen as an important part of the strategy for growth.
7.25 Both Leeming Bar and Dalton were highlighted as locations which would be attractive to outside investment as would the wider A1/A19 corridor. Indeed it is in these corridors that grant and loan funding will be made available by the LEP and where the LEP will be pursuing funding from central government. It was therefore seen as worthwhile considering additional sites in these area which could facilitate an uplift in demand.
7.26 The Leeming Bar area however is not without drawbacks as although the location has excellent strategic links (and soon to be improved), there are issues around electricity supply and waste water treatment that would need addressing if more employment land were to be allocated, particularly for food businesses. The wider A1/A19 corridor could however be capable of attracting grants or loans, which can be used to fund any resolutions to these infrastructure issues.
7.27 They also identified specific demand at Leeming Bar for expansion space. This growth should be facilitated by an adequate supply of land (with the wider sustainable development principles) flexible planning policy position which responds to the needs of indigenous businesses ensuring continuity of employment.
7.28 The Economic Development Team also pressed the issue that inward Investors are only really interested in locations which have a specific offer to make – i.e. land, infrastructure, strong policy position for growth and development as well as a readily available workforce. They suggested that in locations such as Dalton specific locations for inward investment should be identified.
7.29 The team suggested that there had been a number of specific enquiries in this location including major inward investment opportunities. A number of local businesses have also secured funding for specific expansion plans although in some cases these are subject to infrastructure improvements and planning permission.
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7.30 They also ratified the discussions we had with local agents in that rental values in the district were low and that viability was challenging. There was however the possibility that if higher value sectors were involved then additional stock could be delivered without the need for developers to access grant or loan where its available.
7.31 In particular light industrial units could not viably be delivered by the private sector without assistance. This was due to high land prices and construction costs coupled with typical rents in the region of £4 to £5 per sq ft.
7.32 The concern was that any future start up may not be able to find accommodation. This could either be rectified through increased supply of start-up space or move on space which would free up the smaller starter units. There was also anecdotal evidence of tenants occupying multiple units which may also suggest that there was not sufficient grow-on space of workshop type premises.
7.33 The Economic Development team also monitor enquiries into the districts commercial premises. Interrogation of this data indicated substantial interest, if not demand. In total enquiries for 150,000 square metres where taken from businesses or their agents since 2008.
7.34 However as illustrated in Figure 39 there has been as downwards trajectory in the number of enquiries. On average 81 enquiries are received each year although in 2015 the figures was only 66.
Figure 39: Enquiries by Year and Sub-Area (2008- May 2016)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Easingwold LBar/Bedale Northallerton Stokesley Thirsk
Source: HDC, 2016
7.35 The Council collect data in relation to where, what type and the size of property required. Analysis of this data indicates that industrial premises are most enquired about. However it is also apparent
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that many of the enquiries were not sub-area specific. Premises in Northallerton were most sought after, however demand in Bedale, Stokesley and Thirsk were quite similar.
Figure 40: Enquiries by Type and By Sub-Area (2008-2016)
140
120
100
80
60 B8 B2 40 B1 20
0
Source: HDC, 2016
7.36 The Council received two enquiries for major premises larger than 5,000 square metres. One was for a food production facility in 2008. The other was more recent (2014) and was industrial premises from a Dalton based business looking to relocate to anywhere in the district.
7.37 While this analysis provides insight into the potential level of employment land demand in the district it does not fully provide a basis for planning. It does however provide a good basis for any distribution of growth being planned for.
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8 ECONOMIC-GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
8.1 This section considers the scale of economic growth which can be expected in the District over the period to 2035. In doing so, we have sought to draw on available econometric forecasts comprising:
Regional Economic Model (Experian Based) December 2015 forecasts Cambridge Econometrics November 2015 forecasts; and Oxford Economics Spring 2015 forecasts.
Baseline Employment Levels
8.2 The starting point for considering the scale of potential economic growth is to assess the current level of employment in Hambleton District. The issue with this is that there is no single definitive source of information regarding employment levels.
8.3 The Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) records employment, based on an annual survey of businesses seeking information on employee numbers, turnover and business activities. Historical data is also available from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) and The Annual Population Survey (APS). The latter is a quarterly household survey undertaken by individuals, which records information about respondents’ employment status, where they work and in what sectors.
8.4 However these data sources have their drawbacks. BRES data is principally available for businesses who are registered for pay-as-you earn; and does not fully include self-employed persons. In addition it does not fully capture some sectors, including agriculture which in a rural area like Hambleton can be quite significant. Further drawbacks include the fact that people can record the place which they are paid, rather than necessarily where the job is located.
8.5 The APS is based on quite a small sample size and includes a high proportion of proxy interviews, and as it asks what sectors people are working in may not accurately record employment sectors. There is effectively no regular “employment census” in the UK.
8.6 Reflecting some of these issues, forecasters seek to draw datasets together to model total employment. Cambridge Econometrics’ forecasts for instance model employment by considering BRES and ABI data on employees in employment by industry and gender; agricultural employment from Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) estimates, and self-employment figures from the Annual Population Survey. Adjustments are then made to ensure estimates are consistent with ONS Workforce Job totals at the regional level, which include armed forces personnel.
8.7 The other relevant issue in considering the implications of economic growth for housing need is the relationship between “jobs” and “people.” Some people hold down more than one job, and thus
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typically the number of jobs in a local economy will exceed the number of people in work (typically by around 5%). We take account of this in estimating the housing need necessary to support employment growth.
8.8 For less populated areas such as Hambleton it is particularly important to “check” the data to consider these issues. To address this we have sought to compare “baseline” employment level in the District in 2011, in respect of both people and jobs, using five core sources:
The Regional Economic Model (REM) data; Cambridge Econometrics forecast data; Oxford Economics forecast data; and Annual Population Survey (workplace-based measure of people in work); 2011 Census data (workplace-based measure of “people” in work).
8.9 The table below compares estimates of employment, using the “jobs” and “people” measures, in Hambleton in 2011. The 2011 Census indicated that there were 48,640 people working in the District. Based on this we might expect employment of around 51,072. The APS data shows a lower people-based employment. However this could easily reflect the survey nature of the data, and associated error margins. The Census data is likely to be more accurate.
Table 6: Employment in Hambleton in 2011 Jobs Jobs Jobs People People REM CE OE Census APS 2009-12 Total (000s) 47,180 49,100 48,200 48,640 40,650
Source: OE, CE, Experian, ONS and Nomis
8.10 The three econometric forecasts show slightly lower employment levels in the District in comparison to the Census once double-jobbing is taken into account. Although the CE forecasts are nearest to the census estimation. However, it is clear that even establishing a consistent starting point for employment forecasts is difficult.
Employment By Sector
8.11 To understand these difference better we have sought to interrogate the distribution of employment / people in work by sector. This is shown in Figure 41. However because the forecasts are not consistently split this is also not comparing like for like. For example the OE count of employment in finance and business services sector (over-estimate) and the professional services sector employment (under-estimate). This is a result of our inability to disaggregate this data further.
8.12 One of the key difference between the Census employment numbers, and those from the forecasts, relates to the public sector. The Census shows (people-based) employment of 17,500 in this sector compared to the forecasts which estimate between 13,350 – 15,100 jobs. For other sectors,
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employment is either modestly above or below the people-based Census figures, as we might expect.
Figure 41: Estimated Employment in Hambleton by Sector, 2011
20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00
REM OE CE Census
Source: GL Hearn Analysis
8.13 There are a number of large public sector employers based in the District, including the District and County Councils and the North Yorkshire Police service. Potentially some of the County Council employment may include people who work outside the district, i.e. this is where people are paid but their jobs take place elsewhere in the County. However the census data is higher than any of the forecasts and this would seem unlikely.
Starting Point
8.14 Turning to look at the 2014 data (the starting points for the forecasts), CE forecasts have included a significant downwards adjustment to public sector employment (to 13,000 jobs) between 2011 and 2014. This brings it in line with the REM calculations and some way below the OE calculations (15,800). The OE public sector employment calculations have actually increased in this period although they have significantly fallen since 2010.
8.15 The reduction in public sector employment is key to assessing starting point for job growth. Given the current austerity climate and sizable public sector job cuts across the board, coupled with significant closures and cuts in Hambleton (closures of Northallerton Prison and Rural Payments Agency and cuts within the County Council and at Friarage hospital where the maternity and
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Children’s wards have been reduced) in that period it is unlikely that the OE forecasts reflect the reality of what has happened in this time.
8.16 With this in mind the CE baseline figures for 2014 look more reasonable as they reflect these changes and therefore gives us more confidence in them as a starting point. This is further ratified by similarities to the REM figures and the reductions shown in the BRES data. In addition they provide a closer alignment with census data in 2011.
Growth Forecasts
8.17 It is important to treat forecasts critically, using them as a “tool” to understand how a local economy might perform, rather than necessarily an “answer” in their own right. GL Hearn therefore typically goes through a process of testing economic forecasts.
Trend-based Projections
8.18 An important way of testing the realism of forecasts, consistent with the PPG, is to consider how they sit with past trends. Economic growth is cyclical. In interpreting past economic performance, it is therefore appropriate to consider trends over an “economic cycle.”
8.19 Looking at baseline data (drawing on the OE and CE forecasts) for Hambleton, and comparing it to national trends; we can identify an economic cycles – from 1993-2010. These reflect the low point of one recession to the low point of the next. Unfortunately there is no consistent view of growth over that period. The CE forecasts, which have a much lower starting point, show a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this period of 0.8% per annum. In contrast, the OE forecasts only show a growth of 0.1% per annum over the same period, albeit these start at a much higher level. The REM forecasts only start in 1997 so this is not possible.
8.20 We have therefore first sought to consider a scenario based on projecting forwards a growth rate of 0.8% per annum. We have used a baseline estimate of employment in 2014 of 48,444 (based on the Cambridge Econometrics figures, which seems reasonable). Projected forwards this would result in growth in total employment of 8,800 persons over the 2014-35 period (420 per annum).
8.21 One way of testing the realism of the data feeding into this is to compare it with the growth in people-based employment recorded between the Census points in 2001 and 2011. Our analysis over this period shows a growth in the number of people in employment of around 8,150 (an average of 816 pa). A trend-based analysis would thus show a somewhat lower growth of around 420 jobs per annum.
8.22 As well as the differences between the OE and CE forecasts there are sound reasons why forecast growth moving forwards cannot be expected to be as strong as seen in the previous economic
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cycle; including, longer than anticipated recovery, the influence of restricted public sector spending, which is likely to have a particular impact on Hambleton; as well as expected weaker global and European economic performance (influencing for instance the manufacturing sector which exports).
8.23 The reduced level of growth is also anticipated nationally by each of the main forecasting houses. All of which show a slower rate of growth going forward as has historically been seen.
Baseline Forecasts
8.24 We have sought next to consider the three trend based forecasts for employment growth in Hambleton. We have considered forecasts over the 2014-35 period, to align with the demographic analysis and avoids the questionable historic data.
8.25 Table 7 sets out the headline assumptions on employment growth in each of the projections. The CE figures indicate stronger employment growth; with total employment increasing by 2,500 over the 2014-35 period, representing a growth rate of 0.2% pa. The Oxford Economics forecasts are lower, suggesting employment growth of less than 1,200 (0.1% pa) with the REM forecasts showing the lowest rate of growth (1,000 jobs at 0.1% per annum).
Table 7: Headline Employment Growth from Econometric Forecasts, Hambleton 2014-35 Change in Total Employment CAGR
Oxford Economics 1,270 0.1% Cambridge Econometrics 2,560 0.2% REM/ Experian 1,090 0.1%
8.26 There is a notable difference in the forecasts. To understand the basis for this, it is necessary to interrogate the sectoral growth assumptions which each set of forecasts make. A comparison between the three sets of forecasts suggests that the nature of expected economic performance is quite different.
8.27 It should also be noted that the OE and Experian forecasts all show a considerably lower level of growth than previous iterations of the same forecasts. This is the case both locally and nationally and reflects macro-economic factors such as slowing Chinese growth and uncertainty around the eurozone.
8.28 Figure 42 illustrates the predicted Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for each sector in each of the three forecasts. It should be reiterated at this point that in some instances the sectoral split in each sector does not exactly correlate. To achieve a like for like comparison we have, where possible, grouped sectors as best we can. However there are still areas where we are unable to accurately align the sectors. The most notable example of the misalignment are in the CE forecasts which do not split out the finance sector from the wider business services sectors. Similarly the REM also includes recreation with its accommodation and food services (hospitality) sector.
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Figure 42: Forecast Employment Change by Sector, Hambleton, 2013-33 2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Jobs 0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
Utilities
Agriculture
Construction
Info & comms & Info
Manufacturing
Public Services Public
Hospitality & Rec & Hospitality
Wholesale & Retail & Wholesale
Extraction & Mining & Extraction
Transport & storage & Transport
Finance & Insurance & Finance Professional Services Professional REM CE OE
Source: CE / OE / Experian
8.29 There are notable differences in almost every sector between the three sets of forecasts. This again highlights some of the difficulties associated with long-term economic forecasting. It is difficult to predict how the economy and sectors may perform over shorter, 5 year timescales, let alone consider long-term economic performance.
8.30 We have sought to examine the sectors where key differences are evident and those which are major employers in more detail. This analysis is set out below.
Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry
8.31 The Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry industry in Hambleton employed around 2,400 people in 2011. All of the major forecasting houses predict a notable decline in the level of employment in this sector. The range seen however is due to the REM taking a more optimistic view of the industry’s prospects.
8.32 Given that one of the key priorities for the LEP is Agri-business sector it is entirely conceivable that the level of decline in the industry will be arrested and that purely trend based forecasts may be
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overly pessimistic. The REM forecast (-0.5% per annum) for this sector is also more in–line with their forecasts for the wider comparators (-0.4% to -0.6% per annum).
Manufacturing
8.33 Figure 43 shows the forecasts for manufacturing jobs in Hambleton. Over the plan period 2014 – 2035 the OE and CE forecast show very similar level of decline of around 1,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector over this period. Conversely, the REM forecast shows a growth of around 300 jobs.
8.34 The CE and OE forecasts reflect longer term decline and what is expected to be seen nationally and regionally. Indeed most forecasting houses generally expect employment in manufacturing to fall linked in particular to productivity improvements; albeit that the sector can be expected to contribute positively to output growth.
8.35 The REM forecasts expect a 0.3% per annum growth in Hambleton over the 2014 to 2035 which is significantly higher than any of the wider comparators. In comparison the same forecast suggests that a sectoral decline in the LEP area of 0.6% per annum and nationally of 0.9% per annum.
Figure 43: Forecast Manufacturing Jobs
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00 Employment Employment ('000)
1.00
0.00
2025 2031 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2027 2029 2033 2035
REM CE OE
Source: CE / OE/ Experian
8.36 Although the Strategic Economic Plan is expected to see initiatives to improve certain aspects of manufacturing (such as food production) and the industrial estates review identifies some aspirational growth within the existing manufacturing base these are unlikely to fully reverse
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structural changes in the macro economy. Although some improvements may well take place to lessen the expected losses.
Information and Communications
8.37 For the Information and Communications sector the CE and OE forecasts are far more positive than the REM. According to the 2011 Census 1,000 people were in employed in this sector within Hambleton (2%). Long term the sector has seen substantial growth within the district although again there is no consensus to the level of this growth. Similarly the forecasting houses expect various rates of growth and decline even in this short time period.
8.38 Figure 44 shows the three jobs growth forecasts for the Information and Communications Sector. Both the OE and CE forecasts predict a growth of around 0.8% per annum in Hambleton. In absolute terms the anticipated growth is only around 7 jobs per annum. By Comparison the REM expects a decline of 0.3% per annum. The REM however expects the wider comparators to grow by at least 0.2% (regional) and up to 0.6% per annum nationally.
Figure 44: Forecast Information and Communications Jobs
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4 Employment Employment ('000)
0.2
0
1995 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
REM CE OE
Source: CE / OE/ Experian
8.39 Given the strength of historic growth in this sector and the predicted national and regional growth, it is somewhat curious for the REM to forecast a contraction in this sector. While we would anticipate continued growth in this sector it may not be as high as the CE and OE forecasts. This is
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particularly the case given the reported difficulties with broadband supply (see consultation chapter) which is a key factor for this sector.
8.40 Small variations in the major employment sectors also impact on the overall level of growth. As stated earlier in this report that largest sector of employment is the public sector employment. It is also worthwhile considering the growth prospects of Wholesale and Retail and Professional & Other Private Services sector.
Public Sector
8.41 The public sector employs over a quarter of all workers in Hambleton. This includes all Council, Police, NHS, education and social work employees. In comparison to the wider region and nation the district has a higher percentage of workers within the public sector. Generally, where this is the case we find that this is due to a relatively weak private sector rather than over representation of public sector jobs.
8.42 As mentioned previously the starting point for assessing public sector jobs in Hambleton varies. As shown in Figure 45 there is some correlation in the forecasts, particularly post 2019. All three forecasts show continued decline in the period to 2019 with either stagnation or slight growth from then until the end of the plan period.
Figure 45: Forecast public Sector Jobs
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00 Employment Employment ('000) 5.00
0.00
2023 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
REM CE OE
Source: CE / OE/ Experian
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8.43 The CE forecasts are the only forecasts which predict any level of growth, although they also have the lowest starting point. These forecasts include a substantial level of recent and continued decline followed by a longer term recovery. The growth shown in the CE forecast seems reasonable given a significantly aging population which in turn would see growth in healthcare and social work employment, although this in part can be countered with lower Education employment.
8.44 The level of growth shown in the CE forecasts (0.3% per annum) is also more modest in Hambleton than in the wider comparators. The REM forecasts suggest a growth of up to 0.8% per annum across the region. Given the existing over representation in Hambleton a lower rate of growth than the regional figure would seem reasonable for the district.
Wholesale and Retail
8.45 With no major retail centres in the district the wholesale and retail sector in Hambleton is perhaps unsurprisingly under represented. That said it still accounts for around 14% of all employment in the district (around 7,000 persons).
8.46 The REM forecasts indicate that the sector will decline by 0.1% per annum whereas the same forecasts suggest that the wider comparators will grow by up to 0.3% per annum (national). Although this is still below historic levels of growth (up to 0.7% per annum over the economic cycle). The CE and OE forecasts (0.5% and 0.3% respectively) also predict a level of growth below these historic trends but are still much more positive than the REM.
Figure 46: Forecast Retail and Wholesale Jobs
9.00 8.00
7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00
3.00 Employment Employment ('000) 2.00 1.00
0.00
2017 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
REM CE OE
Source: CE / OE/ Experian
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8.47 The district is currently preparing masterplan options for the Central Northallerton Quadrangle area. This is likely to increase retail floorspace in the town. The industrial estates review also indicated planned growth within a number of wholesalers within the District although this is likely to be B8 retail.
8.48 While the extent of these initiatives are not likely to result in historic growth levels they are likely to result in some growth in the sector. Retail growth is also largely driven by population growth. This would also suggest growth, rather than decline, should be expected.
Financial Services and Professional & Other Private Services sector
8.49 As noted earlier the CE forecasts provides data for both the finance and business services sector and other services sector. The REM forecasts only provides forecasts for the Professional & Other Private Services sectors combined. The OE forecasts are quite disaggregated and includes: Real estate activities; Professional, scientific and tech; Administrative and support and Other service activities which are combined for this analysis. Therefore it is difficult to assess growth in these sector consistently.
8.50 By combining the sectors we can gauge what this “super-sector” level of growth is at present and what it is predicted to be. The REM and OE forecasting houses place employment in 2014 in the region of 7,300 to 7,800 which equates to around 6% difference. The CE forecast is somewhat higher at 10,200. This is likely to include some recreation employment which features in different sectors in the other forecasts.
8.51 Each of the forecasting houses also show different rates of growth going forward. The REM forecasts are the most pessimistic, expecting growth of around 0.2% per annum. This increases to 0.8% per annum for the OE forecasts. The CE forecasts predict a more modest growth at 0.6% per annum. Figure 47 shows the index level of growth for the Super-Sector.
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Figure 47: Indexed Forecast Financial Services and Professional & Other Private Services Jobs
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
Index (1=2014) 0.4
0.2
0
2011 2021 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2013 2015 2017 2019 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
REM CE OE
Source: CE / OE/ Experian
8.52 Where more detailed data is available the bulk of this employment is in professional services rather than financial services. The more detailed forecasts also suggest that the growth will be driven by the former with both OE and the REM showing decline in the financial services sector to 2035.
8.53 The level of growth in each sector is also considerably higher than previous rates of growth which were characterised by declining employment from 1993 to 2003 followed by rapid growth to 2010. The CE and OE forecasts show continuation of these latter trends whereas the REM data better reflects the longer term trend.
8.54 Given the LEP priorities to develop higher value employment, particularly linked to Agri-Tech and the knowledge based economy we can perhaps assume that a higher level of growth is more likely in professional services. Although perhaps given the range shown in the forecasts and differences within the sectoral split the mid-point CE forecasts could be considered the most realistic.
Drawing the Evidence Together
8.55 The range of evidence presented highlights the uncertainties with long-term economic forecasting. There are clear issues with data in respect of employment numbers in Hambleton, and particularly the recording of jobs between 2011-14. This needs to be recognised in interpreting datasets.
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8.56 All three of the forecasts for growth in employment take a relatively pessimistic view when set against past performance, and wider benchmarks. While each of these could be argued to be robust in their own right they are also trend based forecasts which do not take into account some of the evidence collected for this assessment.
8.57 Taking into account the emphasis in the NPPF that the planning system does ‘everything it can’ to support sustainable economic growth; and the need to plan positively to support the local economy. We have therefore made amendments to the CE forecasts (which were already the most optimistic of the forecasts) to reflect these local considerations.
8.58 We have applied the given rate of growth for all the sectors within the CE forecasts with four notable exceptions. We have increased the expected levels of growth from the CE forecasts in the following sectors to reflect a higher than trend level of growth anticipated:
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Transport and Storage; Manufacturing.
8.59 For the information and communications sector we have reduced the forecast level of growth to reflect concerns among local stakeholders about the quality of broadband coverage in the district. However, the level applied is still higher than that anticipated in the REM forecasts for this sector and what is expected in the regional comparators.
8.60 Although we could perhaps expect strong growth in the following sectors the CE forecasts already reflected the most positive levels of growth among the three forecasts examined:
Distribution (including wholesale and retail); and Public Sector.
8.61 Figure 48 provides us with a sense test to growth for each sector. As shown there are no significant growth sectors which are out of kilter with the others. The largest growth sector is the finance and business services sector with the manufacturing sector showing a commensurate decline. Other sectors of growth include construction distribution and government services.
8.62 The adjusted forecasts suggest that employment growth of around 3,730 jobs over the 2014-35 period would represent a reasonable, evidence-based assessment of the growth potential of the District’s economy. This equates to an average annual growth rate in employment of 0.4% per annum or 178 jobs per annum.
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Figure 48: Forecast Employment by Sector (2014-2035)
16.0
14.0 Government serv.
12.0 Fin. & business serv. Distribution 10.0 Construction Manufacturing 8.0 Accom. & food serv. Other services 6.0 Transport & storage Agriculture etc Total Employment TotalEmployment ('000) 4.0 Inform. & commun. Elect., gas, water etc 2.0 Mining & quarrying
0.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Source: CE and GL Hearn
8.63 By comparison the baseline CE forecasts showed a 0.2% per annum growth with the baseline OE and REM only predicted 0.1% per annum. The 0.4% per annum is equal to that shown in the REM forecast for the wider LEP area and slightly below the regional (0.5% per annum) and national level of growth (0.6% per annum). This would seem reasonable given the focus for growth regionally is outside of Hambleton and the national figures are driven by growth in the South East.
Table 8: Comparison of Forecasts 2014 2035 Difference Per Annum % Amended Forecast 48,442 52,170 3,728 178 0.4% CE Baseline 48,444 51,001 2,557 122 0.2% REM Baseline 48,536 49,233 1,085 52 0.1% OE Baseline 49,541 50,809 1,268 60 0.1%
Source: CE / OE/ Experian and GL Hearn
8.64 The district’s growth rate calculated for the last full business cycle (1993-2010) ranged from 0.1% per annum (CE) to 0.8% per annum (OE). We expect slowing growth going forward and our adjusted forecasts sit comfortably as midpoint between the two.
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8.65 The delivery of higher levels of growth in other (non population-related sectors) will be influenced in part by commercial factors, including development viability. We have taken this into account in drawing conclusions.
Comparison with 2014 Employment Land Review
8.66 This report updates the work undertaken by GVA in 2014. The employment land calculations within the previous ELR were based on the Regional Economic Model of that time. Updates to these forecasts include large scale adjustments to the baseline population within each area and had a knock on effect on the forecasts.
8.67 For Hambleton this resulted in a significantly lower level of employment growth. The GVA work identified a total employment growth for the period 2011 to 2026 of 2,682 jobs. By comparison the new forecasts have a growth in total employment of 1,571. This equates to a reduction in forecast total employment growth of 41% or 1,110 jobs.
8.68 Of particular note is the change in job growth within textiles and clothing. This former REM forecast growth of 700 jobs. The REM within this models sees this as a stable or moderately declining sector. While there are other sectoral differences this is the most significant. This includes the REM taking a more conservative view on accommodation and food services, residential care and social work services and media activities among others.
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9 EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS
9.1 In this section we consider demand for employment land and floorspace over the plan period from 2014-35. The section considers requirements for employment land in the B1, B2 and B8 use classes. The analysis is of ‘demand’ for employment land and therefore does not take account of any supply-side factors such as existing employment land allocations or commitments – these are considered in the next section.
9.2 When considering the scale of future needs the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) requires consideration of quantitative and qualitative need. This entails estimating the scale of future needs broken down by different market segments, such as different B use classes. The PPG recommends the use of a number of different techniques to estimate future employment land requirements, namely assessments based on:
Labour Demand; Labour Supply; and Past Take-Up.
9.3 Although we haven’t specifically calculated a labour supply scenarios, by aligning this work with the SHMA we have effectively ensured that both the economic and housing/labour supply growth are aligned.
Labour Demand Scenario
9.4 The labour demand scenario is based on adjusted econometric forecasts and takes its lead from the conclusions presented in Section 8. This is based on growth in Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs of 3,017 over the 2014-35 plan period and replicated below in Table 9.
Table 9: Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Jobs Growth – Forecast, 2014-35 Hambleton Agriculture etc -182 Mining & quarrying -23 Manufacturing -383 Elect., gas, water etc 32 Construction 657 Distribution 599 Transport & storage 210 Accom. & food serv. 360 Info. & comms. 75 Fin. & business serv. 896 Government serv. 525 Other services 251 Total 3,017 Source: GL Hearn
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Translating Sectors to Use Classes
9.5 GLH has considered the proportion of employment in each of these sectors which is likely to take place in office (Use Classes B1a), R&D floorspace (Use Class B1b), light industrial floorspace (Use Class B1c), general industrial floorspace (Use Class B2), and warehouse / distribution floorspace (Use Class B8). We have calibrated our standard model which relates sectors and use classes for the Hambleton economy through interrogation of the composition of employment in key sectors at 4-digit SIC level. This is used to derive the following forecasts of net growth in FTE employment by use class over the plan period.
9.6 To these figures we have applied standard employment densities taking account of the HCA Employment Densities Guide: 3rd Edition (GVA, 2015). We have converted figures to provide employment densities for gross external floor areas on the following basis:
General Offices (B1a): The 2015 Employment Densities Guide provides a range of plot ratios for B1a uses – broken down by sub-sector. The sub-sectors are Corporate; Professional Services; Public Sector; Technology, Media, and Telecoms; Financial and Insurance; and Call Centres. These have employment ratios ranging from 8-13 sq.m (NIA) per FTE employee. We have assumed that the gross external area of buildings is on average 20% higher than the net internal area; Research and Development Offices (B1b): The 2015 Employment Densities Guide includes employment densities for research and development (B1b) uses (unlike the 2010 guide). The guide sets out that the sector can be considered to be split into two key directions; an innovation and science focussed direction which is associated with the knowledge economy and life sciences activity, and a more traditional industrial focussed direction which fits alongside manufacturing. An average of 48 sq.m GEA per FTE employee has been assumed, assuming that the gross external area of buildings is on average 20% higher than the net internal area; Light Industrial (B1c): a density of 47 sq.m NIA per employee for light industrial uses on Business Parks, assumes that the gross external area of buildings is on average 5% higher than the net internal area; General Industrial (B2): Assumes a density of 36 sq.m GIA per employee and that the gross external area of buildings is on average 5% higher than the gross internal area; Warehouse/ Distribution (B8): an average of 72 sq.m GEA per employee. This reflects a mix of smaller scale warehousing and final mile distribution, also reflects some potential for delivery of more strategic projects at Leeming Bar.
9.7 Applying these employment densities to the forecasts of net growth in jobs in B-class activities, we can derive forecasts for net changes in employment floorspace. It is worth bearing in mind that plot ratios are taken from the Employment densities guide which is national guide and covers densities from central London to remote rural areas. As such a more spacious view for Hambleton may be more appropriate. This is factored in with our margin.
9.8 Applying this methodology to the amended forecast identifies a net requirement for an additional 20,793 sq m of floorspace in B-class uses in Hambleton over the 2014-35 period. The breakdown use class is shown in Table 10.
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Table 10: Net Floorspace Requirement per B-Use Class (Sq m) B1a B1b B1c/B2 B8 Total Hambleton 14,083 - 5,486 - 5,032 17,228 20,793
9.9 These are net changes and do not take account of frictional vacancy or replacement demand, such as from existing companies requiring upgraded floorspace. The demand assessment is broadly trend-based.
9.10 Based on the forecasts we have also assessed when delivery of this additional floorspace will be required. As shown in the Figure below their delivery requirements are broadly consistent across all periods examined. Although immediate delivery (2014-2019) and longer term delivery (2029- 2035) have slightly higher requirements.
Figure 49: Forecast Net Growth in Employment Floorspace (sq m) by Use Class and period
20,000
15,000
10,000 2029-2035 5,000 2024-2029 2019-2024
Square Square Metres - 2014-2019
-5,000
-10,000 B1a/b B1c B2 B8 Source: CE, GL Hearn, 2016
9.11 To calculate the land requirements to support these net changes, we have applied the following plot ratios3. This is the ratio of gross floorspace to site area:
0.25 for B1a/b office and R&D uses; 0.38 for B1c and B2 industrial uses; and 0.40 for B8 warehouse / distribution floorspace.
3 Based on figures from Employment Land Reviews: Guidance Note (Report to the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister from Environmental Resources Management, December 2004).
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9.12 These densities generates the following requirement for net additional land to support jobs growth:
Table 11: Forecast Net Land Requirements to Support Net Forecast Employment Growth Net Land Requirement (Hectares) 2014-35
B1a B1b B1c/B2 B8 Total Hambleton 5.6 -1.4 -1.3 4.3 7.2
Source: CE, GL Hearn, 2016
Margin
9.13 In identifying how much land to allocate for development, we consider that it would be prudent to include a ‘margin’ to provide for some flexibility, recognising:
Typically, there is some level of vacant floor space within functioning markets; The potential error margin associated with the forecasting process; To reflect the potential for less intensive employment densities in rural areas; To provide a choice of sites to facilitate competition in the property market; To provide flexibility to allow for any delays in individual sites coming forward.
9.14 We consider that it would be appropriate to make provision for a 5-year ‘margin’ based on past employment delivery. We consider that it would be appropriate to use long-term trends to calculate this, given that recent take-up has potentially been influenced by recessionary factors and/or supply-side constraints.
9.15 However, monitoring data in Hambleton is not comprehensive and only begins in 2011 and our ability to draw conclusions on a relevant margin using this data alone is limited. In some cases completions data is only provided for floorspace. Where this is the case we have used the same plot ratio assumptions used in the labour demand modelling to translate this into employment land needs.
9.16 The data shows that in Hambleton, gross completions have averaged 0.4 hectares per annum over the 2011/12-2015/16 period. This equates to a 5-year margin of 2 hectares. Added to the requirement identified in the jobs growth forecast gives an overall employment land requirement for Hambleton of 9.2 ha over the 2014-35 period.
9.17 However, these completions do not include substantial completions at Leeming Bar (Coneygarth Way) which have happened over the last couple of years and are continuing to be delivered. Although these are included within the permitted sites lists.
9.18 To benchmark this we have used an alternative source for floorspace change information in the Commercial and Industrial Floorspace and Rateable Value data from the CLG. This data only covers the period 2005-2008. For Hambleton the total floorspace change in this period was 42,000
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square metres. In translating this into employment land we have used the same plot ratios as above. This calculates an equivalent per annum land growth of 0.37 Ha.
Table 12: Change in Floorspace and Land Requirement Based on CLG statistics Plot Land 2005 2008 Change Average Ratio Equivalent B1 97,000 113,000 16,000 4,000 0.25 0.10 B2 464,000 454,000 -10,000 -2,500 0.38 -0.10 B8 278,000 314,000 36,000 9,000 0.4 0.36 Total 839,000 881,000 42,000 10,500 0.37
Source: CLG
9.19 In translating this into a margin we have multiplied the per annum growth over a 5 year period. In total this gives us a margin of 1.83 Ha. Added to the requirement identified in the jobs growth forecast gives an overall employment land requirement for Hambleton of 9.0 ha over the 2014-35 period.
9.20 This gives us some confidence that the identified employment land need using more recent completions data is largely comparable, although given the uncertainties of this data the level identified should be seen as a minimum need.
Past Completions Trends
9.21 Next we consider an alternative forecast approach, based on projecting forward past gross completions of employment floorspace. Again we should reiterate that there are uncertainties with this data. As set out above the gross completions trend for Hambleton over the last 5 years have average 0.4Ha per annum. If this is extrapolated forward over the 21-year period 2014-2035 then the overall need would be 7.5Ha.
Figure 50: Completion Based Trend Forecast (Hectares) Mixed B B1 B2 B8 Total Total 2011/2-2015/6 0.90 0.00 0.89 0.00 1.8 Per Annum Average 2011/2-2015/6 0.18 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.4 Projected Need (2014-35) 3.79 0.00 3.72 0.01 7.5
Source: Hambleton DC
9.22 Using the change in floorspace data provided by the CLG, although this is used with some caution as the completions are somewhat dated, we can also calculate a trend based forecasts. Based on completions of 0.37ha per annum over a 21 year period this would result in a need for 7.8Ha.
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9.23 Before the margin is added, the range of forecasts give us an identified employment land need of between 7.2Ha and 7.7Ha. This relatively narrow range gives us some confidence in calculations.
Non B-Class Uses on Employment Land
9.24 In addition to B-Class uses, employment sites in Hambleton support a variety of related non-B uses. Such uses include recycling and waste management facilities, trade counter, builders’ merchant, and out of town ‘retail park’ uses.
9.25 The employment land need modelling set out within this Section has, to this point, only considered the employment land needed to support B-Class employment uses. It is appropriate to add an additional quantum of land to the employment land requirement figures to support non-B Class uses on employment land.
9.26 A considerable amount of employment land has been subject to planning permission for employment related uses that do not fall within the definition of B Class use. We have considered such planning permissions granted since 2011 that have either been implemented or remain extant.
9.27 In Hambleton these planning permissions cumulatively account for 3.8 ha of employment land which is committed to non-B class uses. We consider it appropriate to add an additional level of employment land – in line with the figures above – to support these committed developments.
Table 13: Uplift for Non-B Class Uses Uplift for Non-B Class Uses (ha) Hambleton 3.8
9.28 Again we should reiterate that there are significant uncertainties with monitoring data and there may well be further losses to other uses. In some cases this may be through permitted development which would result in further losses.
How Much Employment Land to Plan for?
9.29 We consider that there are a number of factors which are relevant in considering how much land to allocate for development:
The level of housing need; The need for some flexibility in land supply to facilitate the growth of the indigenous business base; Potential losses of current employment land through redevelopment, either through a plan-led approach or through windfall development proposals for changes of use or redevelopment of employment sites/ premises.
9.30 As set out above the level of employment land required in Hambleton can be estimated in a number of ways. These different approaches provide a range of employment land need as set out below.
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Table 14: Net Land Requirement, 2014-35 (Hectares) CE Model HDC Completions Trend CLG Completions Trend Core Forecast/Trend 7.2 7.5 7.7 Margin 2.0 Uplift for Non-B Class 3.8 3.8 3.8 Total Need 13.0 11.3 11.5
9.31 The employment land needs scenarios set out in this section give a range of employment land need in Hambleton of between 11.3 ha and 13.0 Ha. These scenarios consider a range of factors that will influence the level of employment land needs in the district.
9.32 In addition to the factors taken into account in the scenarios, there will likely be an additional need for employment land to account of likely development for additional non-B class uses such as waste and recycling facilities, retail trade counters, and other uses, beyond that identified as commitments. While identifying an exact need figure for these types of use is beyond the scope of this study (and there is a lack of evidence to base this on), this additional demand could be notable.
9.33 The need figure also does not include provision for losses of employment land through permitted change of use to alternative uses – particularly to residential. In 2013 the government announced a change in permitted development rights to allow the change of use of office floorspace to residential uses without the need for planning permission. This has resulted in considerable losses of office floorspace nationwide, adding to the pressures of an increasing absorption rate.
9.34 In 2015, the permitted development rights were extended to include the change of use of light industrial buildings and launderettes to residential use; and to allow demolition and redevelopment of office floorspace for residential use. This means that a quantum of existing employment land could potentially via be lost to residential uses. Again it is difficult to precisely assess what quantum might be lost.
9.35 Consideration could also be given to accelerated growth through inward invested and from committed investment. This may mean that the council should be flexible to or identify specific sites for these types of demand so that opportunity to delivery employment at the right scale and location as the market demands.
9.36 The Council have also recently undertaken a survey of local businesses to understand their floorspace requirement. As set out in Chapter 7 the calculated need was in the region of 88 Ha. While not all of this may come forward and some of it could be on existing employment land, it does give an indication that need may be considerably above trend based forecasts.
9.37 It would not however be appropriate to wholly plan on this level of need as some of it has already been permitted and secondly there is no guarantee that it will come forward. It should also be
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noted that much of the land requirement is for open storage which might only be required for temporary uses.
9.38 We therefore recommend that it would be appropriate to plan for an employment land figure which is at a very minimum around the higher end of the forecast range (13 ha) with a maximum of up to 50.5Ha (based on mid-point between the forecast need and the surveyed need). By ensuring the minimum of 13 Ha is provided for the forecast growth can be met. The upper end will provide flexibility to allow for expansion of indigenous businesses, inward investment opportunities, loss through permitted development and non B-class uses. Site by site policy decisions should be flexible to react to this range.
9.39 Similarly the identified housing need should only be reviewed once substantial inward investment occurs or after a suitable length of time. Clearly a significant investment would impact on housing need but until the extent of that investment is fully understood housing policy should align with on that set out in trends and/or forecasts as set out in the PPG.
9.40 By comparison the previous ELR the identified range a need for between 22 Ha and 47 Ha. Although this is only for the period to 2026. These sit within the range identified by our approach above with the higher end of the range very similar to the higher end of our work.
9.41 Irrespective of the scale of demand identified by the forecast the overarching concern may well be that of delivery viability. Both the agents and the Council have suggested that viability is a difficulty facing new build development, although funding is potentially available in the A1/A19 corridor. We would therefore consider Thirsk and Bedale/Leeming Bar sub areas as the most likely location of growth.
9.42 In terms of the type of employment floorspace that should delivered the forecasts and ONS completions data point towards demand for office and distribution warehouse space. Although recent completions from the Council show demand has been for either mixed use or industrial uses.
9.43 There are however some crossover in the locational demands of B2 and B8 land uses e.g. the need for strategic transport links. It would therefore be pragmatic for the Council to maintain a flexible approach to these uses. Again the more obvious location for these uses would be in the A1/A19 corridor where the strategic links are greater.
9.44 In contrast stakeholders have told us that the demand for office uses or lighter industrial uses should be close to services, should be accessible for the labour force and also provide adequate parking, be flexible and preferably in modern facilities. It would therefore seem sensible that these are located on the edge (rather than centrally) of existing settlements which all have historic cores which may limit this type of development.
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9.45 Again as with industrial/distribution the council should seek a flexible approach to applications on sites identified as suitable for office or light industrial uses. This will allow opportunities for growth to be in suitable locations for that need and not be restricted by over prescriptive allocations.
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10 ASSESSMENT OF SUPPLY
10.1 This section of the report provides a review of the supply of employment land within Hambleton District Council. It does not represent a full assessment of all employment land supply, but focuses on the sites of strategic significance. This includes existing employment sites which represent an intensification or regeneration opportunity, and greenfield sites which provide the opportunity for the strategic development of employment uses and sites subject to material change (such as application which could result in a gain or loss of employment land) since their last assessment. It provides both a quantitative and qualitative assessment of these sites.
10.2 While the assessments make recommendations for each site to inform allocations policy it should not be assumed that these recommendations should automatically become policy. Any decisions to allocate these sites will require more detailed investigation in to their suitability including testing for viability, sustainability and deliverability.
Site Assessment Methodology
10.3 Site surveys were undertaken by GL Hearn between 15th and 18th May 2016 using a site assessment pro-forma which draws on best practice guidance4 and the PPG. The site assessments addressed:
The nature and intensity of use of the employment site; Road access, including access by HGVs and servicing of existing businesses; Access to local services/ amenities for employees; Physical constraints to the development and use of this site; Nature of any bad neighbour or adjacency issues; The age and quality of existing buildings; Public transport accessibility and adequacy of parking provision.
10.4 A general description of each employment site was prepared. The site survey included specific consideration of the quality of sites and floorspace and their future suitability to meet market demand.
10.5 We have reviewed the development potential of sites, the potential for intensification of use and potential for extension of existing sites. Vacant land on existing sites has been recorded. Where development opportunities were identified, information was collected regarding the potential availability of land for development, market attractiveness of the site, and any known constraints (including infrastructure) which might impact upon the deliverability of development.
10.6 The assessments comes with the caveat that neither a detailed investigation of landownership and lease structures nor detailed development appraisals to assess viability at a site-specific level have
4 South East of England Partnership Board (2010) Economic and Employment Land Assessments Guidance
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been undertaken to inform conclusions on developability. GL Hearn advises that the Council liaise with landowners and developers to consider these issues in detail to inform any site allocations.
Sites Considered
10.7 Table 15 outlines the sites which have been assessed through this Employment Land Review.
Table 15: List of Employment and Potential Employment Sites Reviewed Site Site Name Area Status Area (ha) Leeming Bar IE Bedale/Leeming Bar Existing Employment Site 63.5 Site north of Leeming Bar IE Bedale/Leeming Bar Partially developed 29.66 Site in Leeming Bar presented for Bedale/Leeming Bar Vacant land - Greenfield 1.16 employment_1 Site in Leeming Bar presented for Bedale/Leeming Bar Vacant land - Greenfield 8 employment_2 Land NW of Leases Rd Bedale/Leeming Bar Vacant land - Greenfield 4.76 Aiskew House Farm Bedale/Leeming Bar Vacant land - Greenfield/ 3.34 Allocation 2010 for mixed Easingwold BP Easingwold uses/PresentedExisting Employment in 2015 Site for 8.7 Housing Uses Employment site adjacent to Easingwold Easingwold Existing Employment Site 5.1 BP Easingwold Urban Extension Allocation Easingwold Greenfield - Allocation 2010/ 8.7 Presented Site 2015 Field at York Road Easingwold Easingwold Greenfield - Allocation 2010/ 16 Presented Site 2015 Shires Bridge Mill BP Easingwold Existing Employment 17.8 Site/Greenfields Northallerton Industrial Area-East of Northallerton Existing Employment Site 30.9 Darlington Road Northallerton Industrial Area-West of Northallerton Existing Employment Site 74 Darlington Road Site north of Northallerton Industrial Area Northallerton Greenfield - Allocation 2010/ 5.66 Prison Site - Northallerton TC Northallerton PresentedPrison Site Site 2015 1.29 Police HQ Site Northallerton Police HQ 28.8 NC02 Northallerton Greenfield - Presented Site 2015 21.99 for mixed uses Stokesley Industrial Area Stokesley Existing site and surrounding 54.6 farm land Farm Land north of Stokesley - Stokesley Greenfield - Presented Site 2015 5.58 Roundabout A172/B1365/Meadowfield for Housing Mill Riggs Farm Stokesley Greenfield - Presented Site 2015 3.44 for Mixed Uses Thirsk Industrial Park Thirsk Existing Employment Site 34.8 Earley Ornamentals and Surrounding Thirsk Greenfield - Presented Site 2015 88.7 Farm Land Employment Land near Thirsk Station – Thirsk Existing Employment Site 2.5 Site A Employment Land near Thirsk Station – Thirsk Existing Employment Site 10.7 Site B Dalton Old Airfield IE Thirsk Existing Employment Site and 232 Greenfields Urban expansion adj to railway line Thirsk Greenfield - Allocation 2010/ 21.53 known as TC02 Presented Site 2015
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10.8 Within this section we make a recommendation for each of the sites we have visited. Our recommendations can be grouped into the following five categories:
Principal/Key Employment Sites – These are the key current, good quality employment sites in the district. Policy should support the continued use of these sites for B-class employment and resit development proposals for alternative uses; General Employment Sites – These sites would also be identified in the local plan maps, but the policy approach might be more flexible – such as allowing employment generating uses such as sui generis, trade counter, car showrooms etc; Allocations of Land with Development Potential – These are vacant sites which should be considered for specific or continued allocations in the local plan, as sites with future development potential; and Sites with Potential for Redevelopment for Other/Mixed Uses – Where there is not potential for employment-led development, and but where a policy response is considered appropriate to support development of the site – such as for other uses/mixed uses. These include sites which are no longer suitable for continued or future employment uses. No Policy Response - The remaining sites were not regarded as meriting a specific policy response. In the main these sites were small industrial locations which were functioning but were not strategic enough to merit long-term protection
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Leeming Bar Industrial Estate
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
63.5ha Existing Employment Site
Legend
Bypass extension
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Developed area
Empty premises
Reservoir
10.9 This is a major existing employment site located in Leeming Bar. The site is highly accessible and surrounded by A1(M), Bedale Road and Leases Road. There are currently road network improvements north of the site including the bypass extension from A1(M) junction to A684 (indicative route on the map – dashed line).
10.10 In general the site is moderately attractive and the existing facilities are all well-occupied. There is a single B8 unit which is vacant. The majority of the building stock is in good condition with large parts to the north only recently completed (grey areas).
10.11 Existing uses on the site include 4x4 motor parts distributors and R&R Ice Cream manufacturers among a variety of occupiers within mainly B2 and B8 Class uses. There are recent developments within the site, which are seeking to focus on food production and distribution.
10.12 The wider site has a high occupancy rate and the area one of the more sought after locations in the district. This is likely to increase once improvements to the road network are in place. There is therefore some potential to deliver new premises which can attract new businesses or allow for
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existing businesses to grow. The site is also in the A1M/A19 corridor which may receive some funding to help aide delivery.
10.13 There is currently no submitted planning application for the vacant land identified within the existing site area. However these would be suitable for further development/intensification being in the confines of an established industrial location. This wider site has the potential to 7.8 Ha
10.14 Recommendation: This is a principal/key employment sites in Hambleton. The area supports a wide range of employment uses including key sectors such as food manufacturing and distribution. It benefits from a good location close to the strategic road network. The Council should seek to retain and protect this area for b-class employment uses (industrial/distribution). The vacant sites (7.8Ha) should also be considered as part of the potential employment land supply.
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Site north of Leeming Bar Industrial Estate
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land 29.66 ha Partially vacant greenfield land
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Developed area
10.15 The site is a largely greenfield site to the North of Leeming Bar. The site is highly accessible being adjacent to the A1(M). There are further road network improvements currently being built to the south of the site (bypass extension illustrated on the previous map).
10.16 Part of the site has been recently developed as a motorway service area (highlighted in grey). The rest of the site (15.09 ha) is greenfield land which spans Leases Road. The western part of the site (1.2 Ha) could be developed for some modest industrial or distribution uses, potentially linked to distribution/wholesale given adjacency to the strategic road. The site is also in the A1M/A19 corridor which may receive some funding to help aide delivery.
10.17 The eastern part of the site is currently (in part) under development as part of the wider By-pass works, although the future use remains unclear (likely residential). Although the site could deliver further employment land in the longer term alternative locations present more sustainable growth options.
10.18 Recommendation: The site is an obvious extension to the existing industrial area to the south. The western part of the site is largely built out with the remainder suitable for industrial/distribution based uses (1.2 Ha) and should be considered for allocations as land with employment land development potential. The eastern part of the site however should not currently be considered for employment uses.
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Site in Leeming Bar presented for employment 1
Site Area Vacant Area Nature of Vacant Land
1.16 ha 1.16 ha Vacant land - Greenfield
Legend
Site boundary
10.19 This greenfield site was presented for employment land during the 2015 call for sites. The site is located to the north east of Leeming Bar adjacent to residential uses and the car park for the Vale of Mowbray food manufacturing site. The rest of the site is surrounded by farm land.
10.20 Currently there is no access into the site although this could be achieved through the existing car park. This would however be subject to capacity as the current access is through a partially residential area. The rail line pass in close proximity to the south east of the site which could also limit uses.
10.21 Recommendation: The site is not currently accessible and is located in close proximity to a residential area. There are more suitable employment locations nearby which are available and have fewer restrictions. The site should not be allocated for employment uses.
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Site in Leeming Bar presented for employment 2
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
8 ha Vacant land - Greenfield
Legend
Site boundary
10.22 This greenfield site was presented for employment land during the 2015 call for sites. The site is located the North East of Leeming Bar and is bounded by the rail line at north and Northallerton Road (A684) at south. Although not adjacent to the built up area the site is directly adjacent to large highways depot. There are also no facilities on or nearby the site.
10.23 No site access is in place however the site sits on the current strategic road network. The completion of the bypass from A1(M) to A684 will create a natural boundary to the urban form and will also improve access to the site. In addition, there are no services on or near the site.
10.24 Although the site has some qualities it is not likely to be developed in the short term and thus should not be protected for long term employment use.
10.25 Recommendation: The site is currently accessible by Northallerton Road and the ongoing road network improvements will create opportunities for urban expansion. However this site is quite detached from the existing urban form. No specific policy response is recommended.
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Land NW of 23 Low Street, Leeming Bar
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
4.24 ha Vacant land - Greenfield
Legend
Site boundary
10.26 The site is currently farm land to the north of Leeming Bar. The site was presented for housing development during the 2015 call for sites exercise.
10.27 Although there is no direct access on to the site it is well connected with the surrounding area as the western boundary of the site is Leases Road and the eastern is Low Street. The northern boundary of the site is currently the construction area for the Leeming Bar Bypass.
10.28 However, the site does have significant sloping and may be difficult for the appropriate B-class uses in this area (i.e.B2/B8). Given these physical constraints and the likely achievable values this site may struggle for viability.
10.29 Recommendation: The site could be reviewed for in future once neighbouring sites are fully developed. No specific policy response is recommended.
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Land South of Lowlands in Low Street, Leeming Bar
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
0.52 ha Vacant land - Greenfield
Legend
Site boundary
10.30 The site is currently farm land to the north of Leeming Bar. The site was presented for housing development during the 2015 call for sites exercise. The site is a small flat site with no obvious physical constraints.
10.31 Although there is no direct access on to the site it is adjacent to Low Street which is a largely residential street although there are some employment generating uses at the southern end of the street.
10.32 The northern boundary of the site is currently the construction area for the Leeming Bar Bypass. Once completed this site could be considered for infill development. However, given the residential setting it is unlikely to be suitable for employment uses.
10.33 Recommendation: The site could be reviewed for other uses. No specific policy response is recommended.
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Easingwold Business Park
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
8.7 ha Existing Employment Site
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Developed area
10.34 This is a minor existing employment site located in south east of Easingwold. Access to the site is in place via Stillington Road although circulation around the site could be better. The site is in close proximity to an employment site and residential areas to the south and east. The local centre is also within a walking distance.
10.35 The site is well occupied with only one vacant unit (10% vacancy rate). The Fire Brigade occupies the one third of the site. Other occupiers include ITP industrial textiles and plastics, Agecko, Dobson Motors, AH Fabrication and North Yorkshire Building Control.
10.36 There is a previously developed and vacant parcel of land in the western part of the site as well as small parcel (public realm) at the northern part of the site. Both these present some development opportunity. Although given the currently lack of public realm and the road layout further work would be required if the development commences.
10.37 There are currently no submitted planning applications for the area. However the bungalow and ancillary buildings at the north west of the site have been granted permission (14/01964/FUL) for demolition and erection of 5 housing dwellings.
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10.38 As an existing employment location in an area which could potential benefit from an under supply in York then the site is probably one of the more obvious and commercially attractive locations in the district.
10.39 Recommendation: The site is a general employment sites which should be protected for continuing employment uses. The vacant part of the site and would provide 0.8Ha of additional employment land. The additional land is suitable for general office (B1 Use Class) or light industrial uses (B2 Use Class).
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Employment site adjacent to Easingwold Business Park
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
5.1 ha Existing Employment Site
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
10.40 This is a minor existing employment site located in south east of Easingwold. Access to the site is in place via Stillington Road although access was restricted to the core of the site so a full site visit could not take pace. The site is in close proximity to residential areas and also within a walking distance to the town/village centre.
10.41 There are currently two businesses on this site, Falcon Office Furniture and 123 Ltd who are a waste operator. The site therefore has some bad neighbouring use issues. There is available land (0.9Ha) to the north of these which could be delivered for employment uses. Although this currently forms part of the public realm/setting.
10.42 There is one retrospective planning submission (16/00685/FUL) for the use of Longbridge Farm House and associated land for motor vehicles display and servicing. This application does not include part of the vacant land within the site. Moreover on the adjacent farm land west of the site there is an outstanding planning submission (15/02666/FUL) for the erection of an agricultural building.
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10.43 Recommendation: This is a general employment sites where existing employment uses should be supported. The site would present further employment opportunities of general office B1 or industrial B2 Uses. The site should be protected for continuing employment use and could provide 0.9 Ha of future supply.
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Easingwold Urban Extension Allocation
Site Area Vacant Area Nature of Vacant Land
8.7 ha 4.8 ha Mixed use allocation
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Developed area
10.44 This large site is an existing mixed use allocation to the south of Easingwold. The site has been partially commenced and is near completion. The grey area has been developed for housing and the blue area is currently vacant farm land.
10.45 Access to the southern part of the site would be via York Road although it is not yet in place. There is no planning application submitted for the vacant area although it has been presented for residential uses in the call for sites.
10.46 Recommendations: The site is allocated for a mix of uses and remains a reasonable opportunity for this. It is not considered that employment uses are the most appropriate use in the area at this time. Retain mixed use allocation or covert to housing allocation.
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Field at York Road Easingwold
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
15.9 ha Vacant land - Greenfield
Legend
Site boundary
Developed area
10.47 The site is currently farm land to the south of Easingwold and would be an extension to the existing mixed use allocation. The site was presented for mixed used development during the 2015 call for sites exercise.
10.48 The eastern part of the site is immediately to the south of existing employment uses. The southern part of the site is bounded been greenfield agricultural uses. This site would only be suitable for consideration once the site to the north is fully developed out. The majority of the site is situated within the flood zone 2 & 3.
10.49 Recommendation: No specific policy response is recommended although in the longer term this would be a reasonable urban extension site which could deliver a mix of uses. The eastern part in particular could provide long term employment uses subject to flood consideration. The Council could consider splitting this allocation.
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Shires Bridge Mill Business Park on A19, Easingwold
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
17.8 ha Existing Employment Site with growth opportunities
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Adj sites presented for development
10.50 This site is an existing high quality employment site located south of Easingwold on A19 to York. The site is highly accessible and within 20min drive from York. The local centre of Easingwold is within 3min driving distance. The site is only readily accessible by private transport.
10.51 The site is currently occupied by B1 and B8 uses. The building stock is new (or recently converted) and the vacancy rate is below 5%. There are opportunities for further development. There are two sites of 9.6ha in total around the existing employment area that have been presented for development (orange dashed line). The northern site (6.6Ha) has a reasonable prospect for development but the western site (3.0Ha) is on the location of disused sewage works.
10.52 In addition there are two planning applications one related to the adjacent area of 1.7 ha (blue line) and one to the neighbouring farm land south of the site. The planning application 16/00225/FUL granted for the construction of 4 business starter units within the highlighted blue area.
10.53 Planning permission has been granted (15/02839/FUL) for the construction of one more relatively big business unit adjacent south to the site. All these evidence the attractiveness of this relatively new business area.
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10.54 Because the site is in a relatively remote location the level of development should be kept to a sustainable level. This would have to be undertaken through the site allocation process. There is some potential to for the site to deliver high quality office accommodation or move-on space for the district although this would rival existing nearby sites.
10.55 Recommendation: This general employment sites which should be protected for continuing employment uses. The site would also provide 8.3Ha (1.7+6.6 Ha) of additional employment land. The additional land is suitable for small scale distribution (B8), general office (B1) or light industrial uses (B2).
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Northallerton Industrial Area-East of Darlington Road
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
30.9 ha Existing Employment Site
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment Empty premises
10.56 This is a major existing employment site located north of Northallerton Town Centre. It is a well- occupied site with approximately 5% vacant units, all currently concentrated in Omega Village (north west of site). The building stock is in general well maintained.
10.57 There are some new buildings in the north west of the site, mainly used as general office for public services including the County Fire & Rescue services and other private sector businesses.
10.58 The area is broken up into a number of distinct locations. Omega Industrial Village to the north hosts small units mainly office/B1 use. In the middle of the County Business Park’s occupiers vary from farm suppliers to small start-ups hosted in Council’s Evolution Centre. The southern part of the site is dominated by ABN an agricultural feeds manufacturing.
10.59 The wider site also hosts heavier manufacturing and general industrial uses such as Allerton Steel Manufacturer as well as distribution, storage and motor wholesale businesses. Part of the site is also occupied by Sam Turner and Sons a farm and garden supplier.
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10.60 There is a vacant land of 1.9ha on the west of the site (highlighted in blue) which presents a suitable development opportunities. According to the Hambleton planning portal the most recent application for the site referred as Former Clariant Works (08/04043/FUL) related to the construction of a car salesroom, however this has been expired since 2013.
10.61 The site is part of the wider employment area of Northallerton. North and east the area is adjacent to vacant greenfield sites in agricultural use. The site is well connected as Darlington Road (A167) is the west boundary of the site. Northallerton town centre and local amenities are within walking distance. The train station is around 15 to 20min walking distance.
10.62 The wider site has a high occupancy rate and the area one of the more sought after locations in the district. There is therefore some potential to deliver new premises which can attract new businesses or allow for existing businesses to grow.
10.63 Recommendation: This is the key primary employment area in Hambleton. The area supports a wide range of employment uses. It benefits from a good location close to the strategic road network and Northallerton Town Centre. The Council should seek to retain and protect this area for employment use. The 1.9Ha vacant sites should also be considered as part of the potential employment land supply. The site would represent opportunities for either general office and/or lighter industrial employment uses.
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Northallerton Industrial Area-West of Darlington Road
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
74 ha Existing Employment Site
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Vacant building and land
10.64 This is a major existing employment site located north of Northallerton town centre. It is a well- occupied and benefits from good access to the strategic road network and the services of Northallerton Town Centre. The train station is in 15min walking distance.
10.65 The building stock is in general well maintained. The majority of the stock is relatively modern (late 80s buildings). BT (BT Fleet Northallerton) occupies a large part at the centre of the site. This is mainly used for storage and distribution facilities. The site south of Yafforth Road has primarily a retail focus.
10.66 Other occupiers include concrete, windows and other manufacturers, storage and distribution facilities, small workspaces and general offices. The site also hosts a hotel as well as some retail and wholesale businesses.
10.67 Across the site there are pockets of available land which would be suitable for development/ intensification. Although some of which have permission for alternative uses. The vacant plot adjacent to Barkers in Finkills Way (south of site) has been granted permission (15/02512/FUL) for
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the construction of public house with associated parking. In addition there is one outstanding submission (15/02806/FUL) in the land between Former York Trailers and Barkers in Yafforth Road for the construction of 38 new dwellings with associated access and car parking. Both these sites are likely to weaken the southern part of the sites claim as an employment centre.
10.68 The remaining cleared and vacant sites measure 2.35ha. Moreover, there is a single, vacant building and adjacent land (light blue line) which could be brought back into use (2.5ha). The wider site has a high occupancy rate and the area one of the more sought after locations in the district. There is therefore some potential to deliver new premises which can attract new businesses or allow for existing businesses to grow.
10.69 Recommendation: This is a principal/key employment sites in Hambleton. The area supports a wide range of employment uses. It benefits from a good location close to the strategic road network and Northallerton Town Centre. The Council should seek to retain and protect this area for b-class employment use. The 4.85Ha vacant sites should also be considered as part of the potential employment land supply. The site would represent opportunities for industrial (mainly at northern parts), general office or/and wholesale employment uses. The southern part of the site could be consider for other uses.
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Site north of Northallerton Industrial Area
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
5.66ha Greenfield
Legend
Site boundary
10.70 This is a greenfield site located to the north of the Northallerton industrial area. This 5.66ha site was allocated in 2010 for employment uses however it has been presented recently for housing allocation. It is currently undeveloped and primarily comprises agricultural land. There is a farm house and two small sheds at the north of the site.
10.71 There is no related planning application on the council’s portal. The south boundary of the site is adjacent to manufacturers and wholesale retailers. The rest of the site is surrounded by farm lands.
10.72 The site runs adjacent to A167. It has currently one access point from the main road towards the farm house at the north. Any potential development would require improved access from the A167 as well as Bink Close.
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10.73 The site represents a natural extension to the existing employment uses to the south which are almost fully occupied. The wider site has a high occupancy rate and the area one of the more sought after locations in the district. There is therefore some potential to deliver new premises which can attract new businesses or allow for existing businesses to grow. It particularly has the potential to meet demand for out of town office accommodation similar to that delivered nearby.
10.74 While the site to the south and east both have some level of vacancy the vacant sites are surrounded by other uses which limit their flexibility. This site while not currently in industrial use offers a vacant and cleared opportunity in the edge of an existing employment site in the district’s main settlement.
10.75 Recommendation: The site should retain its allocation as land with development potential for employment. This site could potentially form either an expansion of the adjacent occupiers or host new businesses. The site’s is a natural location for employment land expansion. The 5.7Ha vacant sites should also be considered as part of the potential employment land supply.
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Former Prison Site, Northallerton Town Centre
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
1.29 ha Town Centre Site
Legend
Site boundary
10.76 The site located in Northallerton Town Centre on the A167 (West Road). Access is in place but would need improvements if uses were to be intensified. The site comprises the former prison buildings including its large perimeter wall.
10.77 A full site assessment could not take place as access is restricted. However, it is known that a number of the buildings are listed. As well as town centre uses the site is bounded to the east by a small number of residential properties, the town’s fire station and a large car park.
10.78 The site is suitable for comprehensive redevelopment, which could include some office uses although a masterplan for the site would be better placed to offer other town centre uses such as leisure or retail.
10.79 Recommendation: The site should be comprehensively redeveloped with town centre uses considered. The site could therefore be considered as a site with potential for redevelopment for a mix of uses. This could deliver some b-class uses but the extent is not yet known. It is therefore not considered as part of the potential employment land supply.
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North Yorkshire Police HQ, Newby Wiske
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
28.8 ha Rural Area site surrounded by farmlands
Legend
Site boundary
10.80 This site is the current home to North Yorkshire Police Headquarters. However, the police service are moving to an office location within Northallerton Town Centre. The site is located in the Village of Newby Wiske which is midway between Northallerton and Thirsk.
10.81 The site is comprised of a Police Training Centre and operational headquarters. There is a wide variety of building on the site including a baronial manor house, modern office block, residential units and training facilities.
10.82 The site is set in well maintained grounds and the majority of the builds are also in a good state. Access to the site is via a residential street although strategic access is poor. The nearest A road (A167) is nearby although this is via a country road.
10.83 The site is unlikely to be in demand by a single b-class user given its specialist uses and current remote location. It may well be that the site attracts interest for alternative uses such as residential, educational or tourism or a combination of all three.
10.84 Recommendation: The site should be considered for continued employment generating uses in the first instance but it is not in a suitable location for major b-class employment. The site should therefore be considered as a potential redevelopment site for a mix of uses. This could deliver some B-class employment but the extent is not yet known. It is therefore not considered as part of the potential employment land supply.
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Farmland South of Northallerton
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
21.99 ha Greenfield
Legend
Site boundary
10.85 The site is currently agricultural farm land to the south of Northallerton and would represent a significant urban extension to the town. The site was presented for mixed used development during the 2015 call for sites exercise.
10.86 Site is bounded to the west by the East Coast mainline and to the east by the A169 Northallerton to Thirsk road. Although there is also a small area of the site east of this road as well. To the north of the site there is residential development and the south of the site open countryside.
10.87 There is no major road access onto the site although the strategic access would be relatively good for Northallerton. The site is flat and has no obvious physical constraints. However there are no services on or near the site.
10.88 The scale of the site and its location in relation to the urban form makes it unlikely to be suitable for solely b-class uses. There are also a number of alternative sites within the town which could help deliver b-class employment land in a more suitable location.
10.89 Recommendation: No specific policy response is recommended. Although in the longer term this could be a reasonable urban extension site which could deliver a mix of uses. This would be subject to further investigation and demand.
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Stokesley Business Park
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
54.6ha Existing site and surrounding farm land
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Adj sites presented for development
10.90 This is a major employment location within Hambleton. The site located south of Stokesley and is generally home well design, high end employment stock and also has a good environment. The site is well-occupied site with less than 10% vacancy rate. The building stock is generally in very good condition and relatively modern.
10.91 Although not immediately adjacent to the town’s urban form the High Street is within 4 min driving time. The site is not well served by public transport although on-street car parking is not widely evident as ample parking is supplied. The site also has very good circulation and access to the strategic road network.
10.92 There are a variety of occupiers including manufacturers like Nueu Schule (horse/riding equipment manufacturer) and Analox (gas sensing engineer/manufacturer), distributors and storage facilities (like MPI), wholesale and suppliers (like Direct Bus Suppliers, Toys Direct, etc) to architects and other services.
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10.93 The wider site has a high occupancy rate and the area is one of the more sought after locations in the district as demonstrated by the low vacancy rate. There is therefore some potential to deliver new premises which can attract new businesses or allow for existing businesses to grow.
10.94 There are a number of small pockets of cleared vacant sites within the wider confines which would be suitable for intensification of the sites. In total these sites measure 3.53 Ha. There is an outstanding decision for the extension and alterations to warehouse and office building, extension of concrete service yard and construction of new security fence and gates in 7 Ellerbeck Way (16/00914/FUL).
10.95 There are also a number of sites surrounding the core site (orange outlines) which could provide suitable extension sites. One such site (to the north east) is also allocated for employment uses (5.3Ha). This site has existing access and is a cleared vacant site which could be delivered in the short term although there are flooding issues on the site. The other sites are not currently deliverable but could be reconsidered once the existing opportunities are exhausted.
Recommendation: This is a principal/key employment sites in Hambleton. The area supports a wide range of employment uses. The Council should seek to retain and protect this area for b-class employment use. The 3.53Ha vacant sites should also be considered as part of the potential employment land supply as should the 5.3Ha employment allocation (8.8Ha in total) which should be retained. The site would represent opportunities for industrial (mainly at the northern parts), general office or/and wholesale employment uses.
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Farm Land north of Stokesley - Roundabout A172/B1365/Meadowfield
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
5.58 ha Greenfield
Legend
Site boundary
10.96 The site is a vacant greenfield site located to the north of Stokesley. The site was presented during a call for sites exercise in 2015. The site is bounded to the south by the A172 and B1365 which link the town with Teesside but also provide a natural barrier to the town.
10.97 The site is gently sloping with no obvious physical constraints. Minor access is in place and the site is located directly onto the strategic road network. The site is rural in character and is also adjacent to residential uses. There are currently no services near or around the site although the town centre is a 20 minute walk away.
10.98 Such a development for b-class uses at this site could have a major impact on the character and setting of the town.
10.99 Recommendation: There are a number of other sites within the town which would be more suitable for B-class development. No specific policy response is recommended.
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Mill Riggs Farm, Stokesley
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
3.44 ha Farm land
Legend
Site boundary
10.100 The site is a vacant greenfield site located to the north east of Stokesley. The site was presented during a call for sites exercise in 2015. The site is bounded to the west by the A172 which link the town with Teesside but also provide a natural barrier to the town.
10.101 The site is generally flat with no obvious physical constraints. Access is in place and the site is located directly onto the strategic road network, although any increase to uses would require junction improvements. There are currently no services near or around the site although the town centre is a 20 minute walk away.
10.102 The site is rural in character and is also adjacent to residential uses. There are low density employment generating uses already on the site, although these are not B-class uses (small shop and trailer hire centre) as well as a small car park.
10.103 The site is not within the towns built up area and a development for B-class uses at this site could have a major impact on the character and setting of the town.
10.104 Recommendation: There are a number of other sites within the town which would be more suitable for b-class development. No specific policy response is recommended.
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Thirsk Industrial Park
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
34.8 ha Existing Employment Site
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Empty premises
10.105 This is a major existing employment site located east of Thirsk town centre. It is bounded by A170, A168 and A19 and as such is highly accessible. It is in good proximity from Thirsk town centre and its local amenities. The train station is in less than 3km away.
10.106 The site is well-occupied with less than 10% vacancy rate. The majority of the stock is relatively modern (between 1980s and 1990s). The building stock is generally well maintained. Parking in the site is limited although circulation is good. The site is also in the A1M/A19 corridor which may receive some funding to help aide delivery.
10.107 There is a variety occupiers ranging from Royal Mail and NYCC Highways and Transportation to Waste Management facilities. In the private sector occupiers include manufacturers including Gaunt Ltd, Hawkesworth, Diagmed, Joseph Turner, Langver, Cyrrus, Brilliant Lighting, Furniture Traders and Angram Drink Manufacturer.
10.108 Tomrods Steel stockholder in the south of the site is a major occupier. The land south of the steel manufacturer (highlighted in blue) provides a good opportunity of 1.15 ha for this specific occupier’s.
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In addition the buildings highlighted in orange were vacant premises which could come back into use (1.65 Ha).
10.109 Recommendation: This is a principal/key employment sites in Hambleton. The area supports a wide range of employment uses. The Council should seek to retain and protect this area for B-class employment use. The 2.8Ha vacant sites should also be considered as part of the potential employment land supply. The site would represent opportunities for industrial, general office or/and wholesale employment uses.
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Earley Ornamentals and Surrounding Farm Land
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
88.7 ha Greenfield
Legend
Site boundary
10.110 This site was presented as a potential employment site as part of the 2015 call for sites. The majority of the site consists of farm land apart from the petrol station and the scattered employment site that hosts mainly greenhouse facilities (Earley Ornamentals). Catering Hire, Moss Motors and a residential dwelling are also located within the site.
10.111 As the majority of the existing employment land is covered in either hard-standing or greenhouses there is some opportunity to intensify employment floorspace on this part of the site. However there is unlikely to be demand for a site of this scale in this location.
10.112 The site would constitute a significant urban expansion if delivered. Access is in place at both the north and south of the site and strategic access is very good. However site access would require significant improvements if a site of this scale ever materialised. It should be noted that there are four electric pylons located within the site which would restrict development. Similarly large parts of the site are also in the flood zone 2.
10.113 Recommendation: Although some employment uses exist on this it is not suitable for a large employment led urban extension as proposed. Existing employment uses are not of a significant enough scale to merit a specific policy response while the wider site is not suitable for one.
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Employment Land near Thirsk Station
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land 2.5 ha (Site A) Previously developed 10.7 ha (Site B)
Legend
Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Empty premises
Developed area
10.114 This site is split across two neighbouring sites. Both sites are located to the west of Thirsk close to the town’s train station and around 20-30 minutes’ walk from the town centre. The sites both have direct access to the A61 which links Thirsk with the A1(M).
10.115 Site A to the west of the railway line consists of Power Plastics, Station Auto Service, Carlton House Furniture and a Day Nursery. Site B consists of two sites, the Europark site to the east, is comprised of eight industrial units, including UK Vet and Eurotech. The west of the site is occupied by Austin Reed head office and distribution depot (highlighted in green dashed line – 5.7ha) which recently announced that they are to cease trading.
10.116 The building stock is in reasonable condition dated between 1970 and 2000. Site B presents high vacancy rate around 80% considering that Reed facilities will be removed permanently. It should be noted that the public realm around this site is well designed and very attractive. There is a small area of cleared land within Europark (0.8Ha) which could be delivered for additional employment land.
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10.117 The Austin Reed site is an important employment generating site for the town, however there only likely to be limited interest in the site in its current form. The site could still provide employment uses but this may mean redevelopment of the site or subdividing the site. If this fails to return the site to employment use then alternative uses (such as community facilities or residential) should then be considered.
10.118 Recommendation: Site A and part of Site B a general employment sites which should be protected for continuing employment uses. The Austin Reed site would provide 5.7Ha of additional employment land although other uses including community facilities (school, residential etc.) are possible. This part of the site should therefore be considered as a site with potential for redevelopment for Other/Mixed Uses. The 0.8Ha vacant site should be considered as part of the potential employment land supply.
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Dalton Old Airfield Industrial Estate
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
232 ha Greenfields and previously developed
Legend Site boundary
Vacant land for intensification/ redevelopment
Developed area
Adj sites presented for development
10.119 This is a major existing employment site located at the former Dalton Airfield in the southern half of the district. The site is home to a number of heavier uses including steel tube manufacturers and animal food manufactures.
10.120 The site has reasonable access although it could require improvements if uses are intensified. Strategic access is good with the A19/168 in relatively close proximity. The site is connected to A168 through Dalton Lane. Circulation on the site is reasonable although road surfaces are poor and public realm is lacking. There are a small number of services on site. Further services can be found at Dalton, Topcliffe, Asenby and Thirsk all of which are between five and fifteen minutes driving distance.
10.121 Occupiers on the site include Severfield and Cleveland Steel Manufacturers, National Tube Stockholders. These three companies occupy well over half of the employment site. Other occupiers IPN (solid grey area – new unit), Wagg Foods, Wetherby, Provimi, Colomer 1792, Cargill and Grief Flexibles.
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10.122 The current employment site is well-occupied with 5.1ha available land for expansion across two sites. There is only one small building highlighted in solid orange that is currently vacant (May 2016).There is only one related planning permission (16/00253/FUL) for the construction of a new industrial unit which has been completed (grey area).
10.123 We have also reviewed a number of sites which have been identified or put forward for additional employment uses. Each of the sites identified would result in a significant extension to the existing employment site. Access to these sites would require major improvement. A number of these sites are brownfield sites and thus should be prioritised for consideration.
10.124 A number of the existing uses could require additional land and the site also has the potential to meet inward investment need. The site is also in the A1M/A19 corridor which may receive some funding to help aide delivery.
10.125 Some of the existing occupier are land intensive but have low employment densities. Given the remote location, lack of access or services these sites should only be preserved for expansion existing uses or as yet unknown demand. The first of these sites measures 20.3Ha with the second 9.6Ha. These sites should not form part of the core supply but should be considered long term expansion sites for specific local occupiers or for a single inward investment.
10.126 Recommendation: This is a principal/key employment sites in Hambleton. The 5.1Ha of vacant land should be considered as part of the potential employment land supply. It would represent opportunities for industrial, general office or/and wholesale and distribution uses. The land immediately to the north should be considered for longer term allocation for specific local occupiers or a single inward investment.
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South East Urban Extension, Thirsk
Site Area Nature of Vacant Land
21.53 ha Greenfields and previously developed
Legend Site boundary
Developed area
10.127 This is a significant urban extension to the south of Thirsk also known as Sowerby Gateway. The site is bounded by the B1448 and the East Coast mainline. Part of the site is already complete for residential uses with other sections under construction. Although the wider site spans the B1448 we have only reviewed the western part (allocation TM2B) as this is the only available location and is also allocated for employment to the south west of the site.
10.128 Access to the site is in place for the agricultural buildings located there already. This however would need to be improved as would circulation if any development took place. The site has relatively good strategic access and the B1448 has had substantial upgrades to accommodate the housing growth. This also links directly onto the A156 although only in a southwards direction.
10.129 There are no services on the site although these may come through increased development. The town centre is approximately a twenty minute walk. Public transport is also limited, although Thirsk does have a railway station.
10.130 That said the site is the most obvious location for an urban extension within the town. Access is in place and the wider residential growth provides the opportunity for a sustainable development. The site is also in the A1M/A19 corridor which may receive some funding to help aide delivery.
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10.131 The site itself is in agricultural use and is relatively flat with no obvious physical constraints. At present there is likely to be limited demand for an industrial location of this size in the town. Once the wider site is developed out this site may become more attractive for employment generating uses. Major B8 development would however require additional junction improvements to allow for two way access to the A158.
10.132 Recommendation: The allocation should be retained for the short term but should be reviewed once the wider site is developed fully. The 15.9Ha vacant site should be considered as part of the potential employment land supply.
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11 CONCLUSIONS
Potential Supply
11.1 In total, more than 810ha of land was assessed. This identified a supply of potential employment land supply in the region of 60.25 Ha.
11.2 In the majority of cases the supply is held in infill sites within existing employment land. It is reasonable therefore that these sites could reasonably be expected to deliver further employment and would be suitable in policy terms. These sites have a total additional employment land of 30 Ha.
11.3 We would however suggest that some of these sites are infill in nature and may not provide the flexibility required by some occupiers. While the principle/key employment sites should retain these for B-class employment uses the general employment sites could consider other employment generating uses. This would effectively reduce the deliverable supply from these sites.
11.4 There are four notable exceptions, all of which are some form of extension to existing sites. In the case of Stokesley Business Park and the Site North of Northallerton Industrial Area these are existing allocations for employment adjacent to existing sites. The weight of evidence required for an allocation suggests that these sites (subject to demand) are deliverable and would be suitable in policy terms. These sites have a total area of 11.1 Ha.
11.5 Two further sites have also been identified as broadly suitable and available locations for further employment land. In the case of the site north of Leeming Bar Industrial Estate this site is already partly built out, however further investigation is required relating in particular the transport impact such a site would have as its location next to the currently being built out by-pass. This site could deliver an additional 1.2 Ha of employment land
11.6 The final site we have identified as potentially being able to provide employment land is the South East Urban Extension in Thirsk. This site is an existing allocation and would be a significant growth location for the town and indeed the district. In policy terms the site is suitable although the scale of the extension suggests that it is likely to be long term before it is delivered.
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Table 16: Core Potential Supply of Employment Land
Additional Name Employment Type Land (Ha) Leeming Bar Industrial Estate 7.8 Existing Easingwold Business Park 0.8 Existing
Employment site adjacent to Easingwold Business 0.9 Existing
Shires Bridge Mill Business Park on A19, Easingwold 8.3 Existing Northallerton Industrial Area-East of Darlington Road 1.9 Existing Northallerton Industrial Area-West of Darlington Road 4.9 Existing Thirsk Industrial Park 2.8 Existing Employment Land near Thirsk Station 0.8 Existing
Dalton Old Airfield Industrial Estate 0.5 Existing Stokesley Business Park 3.4 Existing Total on Existing Employment Sites 30 Ha Site north of Northallerton Industrial Area 5.7 Extension (Allocation) Stokesley Business Park 5.4 Extension (Allocation)
Total on allocations adjacent to existing employment locations 11.1 Ha Site north of Leeming Bar Industrial Estate 1.2 Extension South East Urban Extension, Thirsk 15.9 Allocation Total from other supply 17.1 Ha
11.7 Although not part of the core or additional supply extensions to the employment uses at Dalton are also suitable, subject to use restrictions. This site is suitable for land extensive uses which may not generate notable employment or require infrastructure or services. Many of these businesses are already located at Dalton and this would allow these operations to expand.
11.8 In addition, the site is of a scale where it could accommodate substantial inward investment. This would have to be at a scale which would contribute to the required wider redevelopment of the site and improvements local infrastructure and services. As such it should be considered for a more criteria based employment policy reflecting indigenous growth and/or major inward investment.
11.9 We also identified a number of further sites could provide an additional 35.8Ha. This supply would be delivered through a whole site redevelopment which could include a mix of uses. However, given the nature of these sites it is not expected that all of this will come forward as B-class employment. These sites are therefore not classed as part of the immediate supply.
Table 17: Potential Employment Land Supply from Mixed Use Development Additional Employment Name Type Land Northallerton Prison 1.3 Institutional PDL Newby Wiske 28.8 Institutional PDL Austen Reed 5.7 Office and Distribution
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11.10 We did not identify any existing employment sites which should immediately be released for other uses, however the nature of the sites set out above means that these sites could be released for alternative uses if no suitable proposal come forward.
11.11 Further supply may also come forward in the form of smaller scale development on sites which have planning permission or are in existing employment location but which have not been reviewed.
Supply and Needs Balance
11.12 It should however be noted that the sites we have recommended for allocation are only seen as that. The actual allocation of these sites will be made by Hambleton Council, these will reflect the most suitable sites for development taking into consideration among other things market demand, sustainability, infrastructure etc. It should be stressed that we have not undertaken any form of impact assessment on these sites and as such it may transpire that they are unsuitable.
11.13 Our needs analysis identified a need for 13 ha with potential flexibility for up to 50 ha of employment land in the district for the period 2014-2035. This lower end of the range included an allowance for churn but also for additional supply to meet specific market demand. The upper end of the range allows for loss of existing stock, non-b class uses within the identified supply and the potential to accommodate increased indigenous development and significant inward investment.
11.14 We can therefore assume that the identified need can be accommodated in the identified supply. By planning for and delivering extra floorspace this would allow for choice in the market where it is needed most A1/A19 Corridor and allow a greater spread of supply than currently present. That would include encouraging those gaps in the market identified in this report.
11.15 The distribution of supply is set out in Table 18 below. This shows that the largest supply is within Thirsk including the significant urban extension to the south of the town. This would however align with the need, in that it is both accessible to services and also close to the strategic road network.
Table 18: Distribution of Supply Sub Area Additional Employment Land Bedale 9.0 Easingwold 10.0 Northallerton 12.5 Stokesley 8.8 Thirsk 20.0 Total 64.2
11.16 The remaining areas all have significant supply including Easingwold and Stokesley both of which were identified as having the potential to accommodate growth coming out of neighbouring urban areas. This would support a policy to distribute growth across the district.
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11.17 The Bedale and Leeming area has 9 Ha of employment land potential identified which may be the only under supply given evidence of potential demand in the area (although note the geographic spread of demand has not been quantified).
11.18 As both Thirsk and Bedale are located in the A1/A19 Corridor it is reasonable to suggest that the town could also help meet the needs of the wider area if a shortfall is identified. This approach would build on the settlements existing role as a key locations in the district and would harness growth in arguably a more sustainable locations.
11.19 There are a number of potential areas in these towns such as to the west of the A1(M) in Leeming and to the east of Thirsk which could deliver a modest supply of additional employment land or intensification of use. At present these sites have not been identified as being part of the supply but could be reviewed once the by-pass is operational in Bedale and if other site fail to materialise elsewhere in the district.
11.20 Although we have identified the most suitable sites the demand for employment floorspace could be met in a number of other ways including the delivery of employment land on redundant or under used sites when redeveloped. The Council should take a flexible approach to delivering this need on such sites.
11.21 Our calculations also include provision for much of the demand for B8 stock to be met through the reuse of redundant B2 premises and land. Furthermore the B8 demand we have identified outside of Bedale and Thirsk is likely to be small scale linked to other sectors such as local manufacturing. It should not be considered that this B8 demand would be for inappropriate larger warehousing units and significant traffic generators outside of the main corridor. This reflects the more remote part of the districts lack of connectivity to the wider markets.
11.22 Change of use from B2 to B8 is a permitted development for up to 500 sq m. The Council should have a flexible approach to larger conversion but ensuring that there is no undue impact on the surrounding areas in relation to traffic, noise, pollution landscape etc. It should also ensure that smaller units are replaced given the apparent lack of supply for start-up and move-on space.
11.23 The Council should particularly encourage schemes that will delivery space for small enterprises. This is particularly relevant to office and smaller industrial premises of up to 1,000 sq ft (93 sq m). This reflects the focus of take up being from small enterprises. There is also a specific need for better quality, low cost office accommodation in the district which should be encouraged or provided.
11.24 Additional Office floorspace should be focused towards sustainable locations offering good access. Historically most office accommodation has not been in the main towns. This is likely to continue although given restrictions in Northallerton Town Centre it may shift out to the industrial locations on
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the Northern edge of the town. It therefore may require some upgrades to local road network to ensure a sufficient supply can be accessed from all parts of the district without increasing congestion. This is particularly the case around the level crossing linking the town centre to the industrial areas.
11.25 There is potentially some need for the Council to intervene within the office market. At present build costs and low rent mean that delivery of additional office stock is slow. The supply of office accommodation is also dwindling due to permitted development. There is particularly a lack of suitable move-on space which could help release, start-up space and encourage local business growth.
11.26 While permitted development is reducing office stock there are still high levels of vacant offices within Northallerton and Thirsk Town Centres. By encouraging the conversion of disused offices to residential space within these area would also have a number of benefits. Firstly it will assist with town centre vibrancy by reducing vacant properties and it will increase the local population helping to support local businesses, including the night time economy. Perhaps more importantly the permitted development of office to residential conversion allows for an increased flow of residential properties on to the market at a time of a national housing shortage.
11.27 If the Council do seek to encourage inward investment then a suitable supply of sites should be made available. These sites should be responsive to the needs of major investment. Sites such as Dalton provide that flexibility although other locations are also suitable but on a smaller scale. There may however be a need for mitigation at Dalton to ensure viable delivery.
Management Policies
11.28 Policies should support the investment in existing sites, including the redevelopment, refurbishment and upgrading of dated employment floorspace and environmental improvements. We consider that policies should encourage more efficient use of land and premises in line with sustainable development principles, so long as employment uses do not result in additional and unacceptable noise, traffic or pollution impacts or harm to surrounding activities.
11.29 The Council might wish to consider identifying good quality primary employment sites in which there is a general presumption for the retention and protection of existing employment use. We have identified those in section 10 where such a response would be appropriate.
11.30 On other employment sites we would expect policy to protect the existing employment use unless the site or premises can be demonstrated to be redundant and incapable of meeting the needs of modern employment uses (B1-B8). This might include circumstances where proposals:
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Make more efficient and effective use of the site/premises delivery new employment floorspace but potential some wider uses to ‘enable’ delivery of employment uses where viability is challenging; Deliver significant environmental improvements in terms of the public realm and landscaping of existing employment sites; Improve the quality of the employment offer in terms of the type of employment (such as higher value-added activities) and number or density of jobs.
11.31 Where a loss of employment is envisaged the Council should consider requiring applicants to demonstrate redundancy of existing floorspace and that redevelopment for employment uses is not feasible, with regard to: the location and accessibility of the site; site layout; quality of buildings; and adjacent uses. Unless this is a permitted development applications should demonstrate that the site has been vacant or existing floorspace for some time, and that it has been actively marketed for employment use as a realistic cost, in most circumstances for a minimum of two years.
11.32 Where significant loss of employment floorspace (2,000+ sq m) is proposed, applications should be accompanied by evidence that the loss of employment floorspace will not result in an undersupply of employment floorspace in the local area. This is particularly important in those locations where supply is scarcer, such as Easingwold.
Monitoring
11.33 This work is being prepared at a time when the macro economy seems to be in recovery from the earlier recession and with the impact of Brexit not fully known. It is therefore extremely important that monitoring of employment land delivery and demand is ongoing.
11.34 At present the Council’s monitoring system is limited although it appears to provide more detailed data (although incomplete) in the last five years. This should be continued and expanded to identify gross and net loss of employment floorspace across the District.
11.35 Monitoring should also be expanded beyond just approvals and completions should be monitored also. This would allow for further forecasts to be derived using changing floorspace for each commercial property type.
11.36 Monitoring should also be undertaken on existing allocations. Any release or change of allocation must be fully justified by landowners/developers. They should be able to demonstrate that the site had been made fully available to willing developers of employment land at a reasonable cost for a reasonable length of time.
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APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY
- Committed Employment Land: All available land allocated for commercial/industrial or with extant planning permission for such uses. - Employment Density: The average quantum of floorspace required to support one FTE job. - Employment Land: Land allocated for business, general industrial and storage/distribution uses as defined by Classes B1, B2 & B8 of the Town and Country Planning (Use Classes) Order 1987 or with an extant planning consent for such uses. B1a: Offices other than in a use within Class A2; B1b: Research and Development – Laboratories, Studios; B1c: Light Industry; B2: General Industrial; B8: Storage or Distribution. - FEMA: Functional Economic Market Area: The geography of commercial property markets used to assess the requirements of the market in terms of the location of premises, and the spatial factors used in analysing demand and supply. - FTE: Full Time Equivalent: The hours worked by one employee on a full-time basis. The concept is used to convert the hours worked by several part-time employees into the hours worked by full- time employees. - Gross Employment Land Requirement: the total amount of land likely to be required for employment uses over a stated period. - Gross Internal Area (GIA): The entire area inside the external walls of a building and includes corridors, lifts, plant rooms, service accommodation, but excludes internal walls. - Historic Take-up: The average yearly development of commercial/industrial land for employment uses over a set period of time. - Labour Demand: Employment needs based on sectoral and employment forecasts and projections. - Labour Supply: demographically derived assessments of future employment needs. - Land Immediately Available: Land capable of being brought forward for development within 12 months. - Margin: the addition of a stated factor to the net land requirement projections to ensure that businesses making locational choices have a degree of flexibility or choice. - Net Employment Land Requirement: the difference between the likely amount of new employment land required, less the amount of land likely to be lost to non-employment uses over a stated period. - Net Internal Area (NIA): The internal area of a building including entrance hallway, kitchens and built in units, but excluding toilets, stairways, lifts, corridors and common areas. - Plot Ratio: The ratio between gross floorspace and total site area.
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