Employment Land Review Hambleton District Council Final Report September 2016 Prepared by GL Hearn Limited 280 High Holborn London WC1V 7EE T +44 (0)20 7851 4900 glhearn.com Employment Land Review, Hambleton District Council, Final Report Contents Section Page 1 INTRODUCTION 7 2 CONTEXT TO THE STUDY 11 3 DEFINING THE FEMA 22 4 ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS 33 5 DEMOGRAPHIC BASELINE 46 6 COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET 53 7 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION 70 8 ECONOMIC-GROWTH EXPECTATIONS 76 9 EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS 91 10 ASSESSMENT OF SUPPLY 100 11 CONCLUSIONS 140 Appendices APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY 146 List of Figures FIGURE 1: YORK, NORTH YORKSHIRE AND EAST RIDING LEP AREA 23 FIGURE 2: TRAVEL TO WORK AREAS (TTWAS) 24 FIGURE 3: RETAIL CENTRES IN CENTRAL ENGLAND (EXPENDITURE IN £MILLIONS) 26 FIGURE 4: LEISURE PROVISION IN AND AROUND HAMBLETON 27 FIGURE 5: TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 29 FIGURE 6: EMPLOYMENT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HAMBLETON DISTRICT 33 FIGURE 7: TRENDS IN EMPLOYMENT, HAMBLETON 34 FIGURE 8: COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT BY SECTION, 2014 35 FIGURE 9: LOCATION QUOTIENT OF SUB-AREAS BY SECTOR (2014) 36 GL Hearn Page 2 of 146 J: \Planning\Job Files\J035448 - Hambleton ELR\Reports\Hambleton ELR final version.docx Employment Land Review, Hambleton District Council, Final Report FIGURE 10: EMPLOYMENT BY SECTION, LOCATION QUOTIENT, 2013 37 FIGURE 11: CORE SECTOR OF EMPLOYMENT (2014) 38 FIGURE 12: COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT IN HAMBLETON BY BROAD SECTOR, 1984-2014 40 FIGURE 13: TRENDS IN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, HAMBLETON 1994- 2014 41 FIGURE 14: SURVIVAL OF NEWLY BORN ENTERPRISES BY BIRTHS OF UNITS IN 2009, HAMBLETON 44 FIGURE 15: SELF- EMPLOYMENT, 2004-2015 45 FIGURE 16: TRENDS IN PRODUCTIVITY (GVA) 45 FIGURE 17: POPULATION AGE PROFILE (2014) 46 FIGURE 18: PROFILE OF OCCUPATIONS OF WORKING- AGE RESIDENTS, HAMBLETON, 2014 47 FIGURE 19: SKILLS PROFILE OF RESIDENTS, 2015 48 FIGURE 20: TRENDS IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, 2005- 2015 49 FIGURE 21: EMPLOYMENT RATE, 2004- 2015 50 FIGURE 22: UNEMPLOYMENT, 2004- 2015 51 FIGURE 23: WORKPLACE- BASED MEDIAN WEEKLY EARNINGS OF FULL- TIME WORKERS 52 FIGURE 24: COMPARISON OF RESIDENTS- AND WORKPLACE BASED EARNINGS, FULL- TIME WORKERS, 2015 52 FIGURE 25: MAP PROFILING TAKE- UP OF THE OFFICE FLOORSPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2005-2015 56 FIGURE 26: NUMBER OF THE OFFICE TRANSACTIONS THE MAIN OFFICE MARKETS IN HAMBLETON, 2005-2015 57 FIGURE 27: FLOORSPACE TRANSACTED ACROSS THE MAIN OFFICE MARKETS IN HAMBLETON, 2005- 2015 58 FIGURE 28: PROFILE OF OFFICE DEALS BY SIZE, 2005-2015 59 FIGURE 29: OFFICE FLOORSPACE TAKE- UP BY SIZE, 2005-2015 60 FIGURE 30: MAP PROFILING AVAILABILITY OF THE OFFICE FLOORSPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2016 61 FIGURE 31: AVAILABILITY OF THE OFFICE SPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2016 62 FIGURE 32: OFFICE FLOORSPACE AVAILABILITY BY QUALITY, MARCH 2016 63 GL Hearn Page 3 of 146 J: \Planning\Job Files\J035448 - Hambleton ELR\Reports\Hambleton ELR final version.docx Employment Land Review, Hambleton District Council, Final Report FIGURE 33: TAKE- UP OF THE INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2005- 2015 64 FIGURE 34: INDUSTRIAL DEALS, 2005-2015 65 FIGURE 35: INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE TAKE-UP, HAMBLETON, 2005-2015 66 FIGURE 36: INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE TAKE- UP ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2005- 2015 66 FIGURE 37: AVAILABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE ACROSS HAMBLETON, 2016 67 FIGURE 38: AVAILABILITY OF THE INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE IN HAMBLETON, 2016 68 FIGURE 39: ENQUIRIES BY YEAR AND SUB-AREA (2008- MAY 2016) 74 FIGURE 40: ENQUIRIES BY TYPE AND BY SUB-AREA (2008-2016) 75 FIGURE 41: ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN HAMBLETON BY SECTOR, 2011 78 FIGURE 42: FORECAST EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR, HAMBLETON, 2013-33 81 FIGURE 43: FORECAST MANUFACTURING JOBS 82 FIGURE 44: FORECAST INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS JOBS 83 FIGURE 45: FORECAST PUBLIC SECTOR JOBS 84 FIGURE 46: FORECAST RETAIL AND WHOLESALE JOBS 85 FIGURE 47: INDEXED FORECAST FINANCIAL SERVICES AND PROFESSIONAL & OTHER PRIVATE SERVICES JOBS 87 FIGURE 48: FORECAST EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR (2014-2035) 89 FIGURE 49: FORECAST NET GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT FLOORSPACE (SQ M) BY USE CLASS AND PERIOD 93 FIGURE 50: COMPLETION BASED TREND FORECAST (HECTARES) 95 List of Tables TABLE 1: LARGEST EMPLOYMENT SECTORS IN HAMBLETON, 2014 39 TABLE 2: TRENDS IN MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT, HAMBLETON 1999- 2014 42 TABLE 3: NUMBER AND CONCENTRATION OF BUSINESSES BY SECTOR, 2014 43 TABLE 4: EMPLOYMENT LAND NEED BY USE CLASSES 72 TABLE 5: EMPLOYMENT LAND NEED BY AREA 72 TABLE 6: EMPLOYMENT IN HAMBLETON IN 2011 77 GL Hearn Page 4 of 146 J: \Planning\Job Files\J035448 - Hambleton ELR\Reports\Hambleton ELR final version.docx Employment Land Review, Hambleton District Council, Final Report TABLE 7: HEADLINE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FROM ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS, HAMBLETON 2014-35 80 TABLE 8: COMPARISON OF FORECASTS 89 TABLE 9: FULL TIME EQUIVALENT (FTE) JOBS GROWTH – FORECAST, 2014-35 91 TABLE 10: NET FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENT PER B-USE CLASS (SQ M) 93 TABLE 11: FORECAST NET LAND REQUIREMENTS TO SUPPORT NET FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 94 TABLE 12: CHANGE IN FLOORSPACE AND LAND REQUIREMENT BASED ON CLG STATISTICS 95 TABLE 13: UPLIFT FOR NON-B CLASS USES 96 TABLE 14: NET LAND REQUIREMENT, 2014-35 (HECTARES) 97 TABLE 15: LIST OF EMPLOYMENT AND POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT SITES REVIEWED 101 TABLE 16: CORE POTENTIAL SUPPLY OF EMPLOYMENT LAND 141 TABLE 17: POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY FROM MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT141 TABLE 18: DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPLY 142 GL Hearn Page 5 of 146 J: \Planning\Job Files\J035448 - Hambleton ELR\Reports\Hambleton ELR final version.docx Employment Land Review, Hambleton District Council, Final Report Quality Standards Control The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance with our quality control requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator. This document must only be treated as a draft unless it is has been signed by the Originators and approved by a Business or Associate Director. DATE ORIGINATORS APPROVED September 2016 Paul McColgan Marcin Kulesza Nick Ireland Associate Director Assistant Planner Director Limitations This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose without the prior written authority of GL Hearn; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned. GL Hearn Page 6 of 146 J: \Planning\Job Files\J035448 - Hambleton ELR\Reports\Hambleton ELR final version.docx Employment Land Review, Hambleton District Council, Final Report 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Hambleton District Council commissioned GL Hearn to undertake an Employment Land Review to assess the need for and supply of employment land in the district up to 2035. This information will inform the New Local Plan. 1.2 The core purposes of this study are to: Review the characteristics and performance of Hambleton’s economy; Assess commercial market trends and dynamics in the office and industrial sectors; Assess the supply of land capable of accommodating new B-class employment development; Forecast future needs for employment land provision within the District; Consider the implications of employment land provision in adjoining authorities; Bring the analysis together to set out the need for additional employment land provision. 1.3 Whilst the Study considers potential sites which could be considered for future employment use, decisions regarding what sites to allocate for new development will be made through the Local Plan taking account of the evidence herein, as well as other factors including decisions regarding where new housing might be located, and findings from the Sustainability Appraisal process. 1.4 The New Local Plan for Hambleton is currently under preparation, with the Issues and Options consultation being recently closed. The Call for Sites exercise has also been closed and the sites are currently assessed. According to the current timelines the Local Plan is expected to be adopted in 2019. 1.5 For practical purposes the assessment of demand for employment land and floorspace is undertaken for the Hambleton District area. As set out later in this report we have concluded that the majority of land and population within Hambleton is within a Northallerton and Thirsk FEMA. However, we recognise that the District operates in a number of overlapping Functional Economic Market Areas (FEMA) including those focussed on York and Teesside. National Planning Policy Framework 1.6 The Study has been prepared in the context of National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which sets out Government policies for planning; and Planning Practice Guidance on Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessments and Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessments. The Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) sets out how studies such as this should be undertaken. 1.7 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March 2012 with the aim of making planning more streamlined and accessible. The NPPF set out the Government’s planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied. GL Hearn Page 7 of 146 J: \Planning\Job Files\J035448 - Hambleton ELR\Reports\Hambleton ELR final version.docx Employment Land Review, Hambleton District Council, Final Report 1.8 The purpose of the NPPF and the wider planning system is to contribute towards sustainable development. The policies in the NPPF set out the government’s view on what sustainable development means in practice. There are three core dimensions to achieve this: an economic role