Government Expenditures in www.statcan.gc.ca

Anil Arora Chief Statistician of

A presentation to Alberta Deputy Ministers

February 12, 2018

ISSN 2368-6723 ISBN 978-0-660-25522-4 Correction notice On April 11th, 2018, the chart on GDP per capita in chained 2007 dollars was replaced by GDP per capita, at current prices, which is the appropriate per capita measure. Outline 1 Introduction . Who we are: Canada

2 Government Finances in Alberta . Reviewing the economic and demographic context . Impact on government finances . Government expenses by functions

3 Summary . Opportunities . Modernization . Questions

3 Who we are: Statistics Canada

Connecting quality statistics to ’ decision making

. Leader in providing quality indicators and supporting responsible use of data

. Capacity building nationwide and government-wide on the use of statistics

Good policy Good evidence Good data

4 Reviewing the economic and demographic context Alberta is an economic force in Canada

Even as declining oil prices led to … it had the highest provincial an economic downturn… GDP per capita in 2016

8% $80 $74

6% $70

$60 $56 4%

$50 2%

$40 0%

currentprices (thousands) $30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -2% $20

-4%

$10 GDP capita, per at

Percent Percent (%) change in GDP, chained 2007 dollars -6% $0 Alberta Canada -8% Sources: CANSIM table 384-0038; The Conference Board of Canada, Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2017, 6 and Provincial Outlook: Autumn 2017. Rich in economic assets

Oil and Gas Agriculture

Tourism Science & Engineering 7 A young and growing population

Alberta has a young population Alberta had the highest population growth amongst between 2011 and 2016 Age Distribution, 2016

12% 18% 16% 15% 18%

60% 64% 61% 62% 62% B.C. Nfld. +5.6% +1.0% Alta.

+11.6% Man. 21% 22% 25% 24% 20% +5.8% Que. P.E.I Sask. +3.3% +1.9% N.S Que. Ont. Sask. Alta. B.C. Ont. +6.3% +0.2% +4.6% N.B. 19 and under 20 to 64 65 and + -0.5%

Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 and 2016 of Population. 8 A diverse population Half of the population living in Alberta Alberta has a sizeable was born outside the aboriginal population Aboriginal Population Aboriginal Percent

Born in province or of residence 400 18% Born outside Canada 16% Born in another province or territory 350

14% Alberta Canada 300 12% 250

10% 11% 200 25% 8% 24% 150 51% 6%

65% 100 Percent with Aboriginal identity 24% 4%

Population Population with Aboriginal identity (thousands) 50 2%

0 0% Sask. Alta. B.C. Ont. Que.

Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population. 9 A highly engaged labour force High participation rate High involvement

Alberta Canada 72 Alberta Canada 76 70 74 68 72 66 70 64 68 62 66

by by group, 2017 60 64 Participation Participation (%) rate 58 62 Participation Participation (%) rate 56 60 Females Aboriginal Youth 15-24 Landed population (Both (Both Sexes) immigrants (Both Sexes) Sexes) Recent challenges Recent improvements 2,340 10 9 2,320 9 8 8

and and 2,300 7 7 6 2,280 6 5 2,260 5 4 2,240 4 3 employment 3 2,220

2 unemployment rate Alberta Employment in 1,000s (Left Axis) 2 Total 2,200 Unemployment Unemployment rate (%) 1 Canada 1 Unemployment rate in % (Right Axis)

0 2,180 0

Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17

Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM tables 282-0002, 282-0102, Jan-14 10 282-0226 and 282-0087 and Labour Force Survey. More employment in higher paid occupations

Employees by occupation, Alberta Average hourly wage rate, 2017 variance from Canada, 2015

Business -0.02% $26.01 $3.85

Health -0.14% $29.79 $4.96

Management 0.57% $42.64 $2.89

Sciences 0.78% $35.89 $6.57

Natural resources 0.92% $23.57 $7.60

Culture -0.81% $23.03 $1.40

Education and government -1.54% $31.91 $1.80

Manufacturing and utilities -1.19% $22.02 $8.70 Canada Sales and service -1.50% $16.77 $2.02 Alberta (difference)

Trades and transport 3.36% $25.91 $5.03

Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population. Source: CANSIM table 282-0152. 11 Alberta’s economic assets and skilled workforce support wealth creation Lower prevalence of individuals with low income Percentage change in median Prevalence (%) of low income, 2015 12 household income, 2005 to 2015 10 8 6 4 2 0 Canada Que. Ont. Sask. Alta. B.C. Albertans spend less of their income on shelter

Owner spending 30% or more on shelter costs, 2016 25 20 15 10 5 0 Canada Que. Ont. Sask. Alta. B.C.

Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 and 2016 Census of Population. 12 The Alberta government has a revenue profile that reflects its natural resource economy Receives more royalties, but less sales tax Royalties and corporate tax revenues decreased and federal transfers due to decline in oil prices

Government revenue composition, 2014 Alberta government revenue, by source 25% Alberta 12 2014 2016 20% Canada 10 8 15% revenue 6 10%

4 Dollars Dollars (billions) Share Share of 5% 2

0% - Personal Corporate Taxes on Sales Federal Royalties Personal Corporate Taxes on Sales Federal Royalties taxes taxes property taxes transfers taxes taxes property taxes transfers Government expense per capita in 2016 are higher than in most provinces

Quebec $15,514

Ontario $13,841

Saskatchewan $16,906

Alberta $16,666

British Columbia $12,980

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 13 Source: CANSIM table 385-0042. Alberta spends more on labour, goods and services than other provincial governments Alberta government spends less on interest and The increase in the price of labour and goods and social benefits services for government was strong in Alberta

Expense type per capita, 2016 General government final consumption expenditure, implicit price indexes, 2016

7,000 Que. Alberta 6,000 Ont.

Canada Sask.

5,000 Alta. ( 2007 (2007 = 100 ) 4,000 B.C. 110 115 120 125 130 135 3,000 Public sector employment continues to grow

Dollars Dollars per capita ($) 2,000 50

30 1,000 10 - 2014 2015 2016 2017 Salaries Goods and Social benefits Interest -10 services Private -30

of employees ofemployees (000) Public Change Change the in number -50 Source: CANSIM table 385-0042, 384-0039 and Labour Force Survey 14 Government Expense by Function

Canadian Classification of Functions of Government Over half of Alberta’s public expenses are for health and education Alberta expense by functions, 2016

Economic affairs 14% Social protection 10%

General public services 7% Health Other 34% Public order and safety 5% 45% Environmental protection 4%

Recreation, culture, and religion 3% Education 21% Housing and community amenities 2%

A similar proportion to other jurisdictions

16 Source: CANSIM table 385-0041 Alberta spends more on health and education per capita than the Canadian average Expense by function per capita, 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Health $4,944 $4,475

Education $3,047 $2,455

Economic affairs $2,112 $1,275

Social protection $1,393 $1,770

General public services $947 $1,658

Public order and safety $762 $723

Environmental protection $584 $301

Housing and community amenities $352 $239

Recreation, culture, and religion $431 $349

Alberta Canada While paying less on social protection and general public services

Source: CANSIM table 385-0041. 17 Wages and payments to physicians are driving health expenses in Alberta Higher per capita expense on health in Alberta

3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Payments to physicians in Alberta are the 1 highest in the country

expense

capita 2016 ($), capita 9,026 additional jobs in health in 2016,

Health Health Alberta 2

per per 32,335 since 2011 Health building permits value 3 Largest difference for wages and salaries of $2.1 billion since 2010

Canada Use of goods and services

per per Alberta

Canada expense Compensation of employees Alberta Sources:

Health 1. CIHI National Physician Database

capita by capita by ($),type 2016 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2. CANSIM table 281-0024 3. ISTD custom tabulation Sources: CANSIM table 385-0035 and 385-0042 18 Health employment and wages continue to increase

Alberta’s employment in health grew at a Wages in health and social assistance are faster pace than Canada higher in Alberta

Employment in health care and Average weekly earnings, social assistance (2011 = 100) health and social assistance 125 $1,000

$950 120 $900

115 $850

$800 110 $750

105 $700

$650 100 $600

95 $550

$500 90 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan Canada Alberta Alberta British Columbia

Sources: CANSIM tables 281-0024 Sources: CANSIM tables 281-0027 19 Despite a younger population, health expenses and demand for services are high in Alberta

Health expense per capita Acute hospital separations and median age, 2016 7,000 50 per 1,000 Capita, 2013 125 45 6,000 100 40 75 50 5,000 35

25 Alberta 30 Canada 4,000 0 25 3,000 Emergency room visits 20 Median age by acuity, 2013

Per Per capita dollars ($) Alberta Ontario 2,000 15

10 37% 1,000 44% 5 57% 63%

0 0

Expense Median age Sources: CANSIM table 385-0041; Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), Discharge Abstract Database. Source: 20 Albertans have higher health risk factors

Positive factors, 2016 Negative factors, 2016 100% 30%

80%

20% 60%

40%

10%

Percent of respondents (%) respondents of Percent Percent of respondents (%) respondents of Percent 20%

0% 0% Has a regular Physical activity Strong sense of Obese Daily smoker Heavy Perceived life healthcare belonging drinking stress provider Alberta British Columbia compared to British Columbians who have the best health report card in Canada

Source: CANSIM table 105-0508 21 Alberta Ranks 5th on the Health Report Card

22 The majority of education expense occurs in primary and secondary education

Higher per capita expense on education in Alberta

Quebec Primary and secondary teachers in

2016 Ontario Alberta have the second highest salary Saskatchewan amongst the provinces Alberta Alberta: $94,103 Canada: $87,202

capita capita ($), British Columbia Education Education expense per 3,455 additional jobs in education in - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2016, 16,626 since 2011 Large difference in primary and secondary education Education building permits value of

per per Canada $5.4 Billion since 2010 Post-secondary

Alberta expense Canada

Primary and secondary capita capita ($), 2016

Alberta Education

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Source: CANSIM table 385-0041. 23 Employment and wages in education are on the rise

Alberta’s employment in education Wages in educational services are grew at a faster pace than Canada higher in Alberta Employment in education Average weekly earnings ($), (2011 = 100) educational services

115 1,100 1,050

110 1,000 950

900 105 850

800 100 750

700 95 650

600 90 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan Alberta Canada Alberta British Columbia

Source: CANSIM table 281-0024. Source: CANSIM table 281-0027. 24 There are more primary and secondary students in Alberta

Number of students Education expense per 1,000 capita, 2015 per student ($), 2015 180 25,000

160

20,000 140

120 15,000 100

80 10,000 60

40 5,000

20

0 - Que. Ont. Sask. Alta. B.C. Que. Ont. Sask. Alta. B.C.

Elementary-Secondary Postsecondary Elementary-Secondary Postsecondary

Source: CANSIM tables 385-0041, 477-0025 and 477-0029. 25 Alberta students rank among the highest in science and reading

Estimated average scores, Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), 2015 Among 72 countries and economies, 550 Alberta students were outperformed only 540 by students in Singapore in Science

530

520 Alberta has the third-highest proportion of population with a bachelor’s degree 510 or higher in Canada, at 28%

500

490 Alberta has the second-highest percentage of men with apprenticeship 480 certificate in Canada, at 17% 470

460 Alberta (74%) has one of the lowest high

450 school graduation rate in Canada (87%) Mathematics Reading Science

Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia

Source: CANSIM table 479-0002. 26 Men in Alberta with an apprenticeship certificate have high earnings Earning more than men with a bachelor’s degree in all other provinces

27 Alberta spends less on social protection

Low expense on social protection Alberta households depend less on government transfers

Social protection Government transfers as share of expense per capita, 2016 household income, 2015 2,500 18

16 2,000 14

12 1,500 10

8

1,000 Percent Percent (%)

6 Dollars Dollars per capita ($)

500 4

2

Alta.

Que. Ont. Sask. B.C.

Alta.

B.C.

Ont.

Que. Sask. 0 0

Sources: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population and CANSIM table 385-0041. 28 Alberta spends less on general public services

Low expense on general public services

Alberta dedicates 2% of its revenue to

Alberta pay interest on public debt, much below the Canada average of 7% Ontario British

per per capita, 2016 Columbia Alberta is the only province with Saskatchewan more financial assets than debts:

General General servicespublic $5.5 billion in 2016 expense Quebec

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Since 2008, Alberta interest expense Largely due to lower interest expense increased 143% compared to 23% in Canada 1,800 1,600 1,400 Since 2008, Alberta debt increased 94% 1,200

1,000 compared to 68% in Canada expense 800 600

Interest 400 per per capita ($),2016 200 0 Nfld. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C.

Source: CANSIM table 385-0042. 29 Alberta spends more on environmental protection

Exceptionally high expense in 2016 due to CLP Alberta’s Climate Leadership Plan (CLP): Quebec $1.1 billion in 2016 Ontario Alberta has the highest per capita Saskatchewan capital and operating expenses on

2016 1 environmental protection in 2014: $1,597

Alberta expense per capita ($),

Environmental Environmental protection British Columbia Alberta emitted 38% of Canada's 2 greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Alberta has the highest waste per capita 3 Alberta spends more on other environment in Canada in 2014: 1 tonne functions Alberta Protection of biodiversity and Alberta has the highest energy landscape Canada consumption per household in 2015: 118 4

Pollution abatement gigajoules

protection protection per per capita ($), 2016 Waste water management Sources: 1. CANSIM table 153-0053

Waste management expense

Environmental 2. Environment and Climate Change Canada (2017) National Inventory Report 1990–2015: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada 0 100 200 300 400 3. CANSIM table 153-0041 Sources: CANSIM tables 153-0053 and 385-0041. 4. CANSIM table 153-0161 30 Opportunities

Collaborative Engaged Results-oriented Accountable Modernized Innovative Accessible Low respondent burden

31 Examples of our partnerships with Alberta

Service Alberta Alberta Municipal Driver’s licenses, land Affairs registry data Property assessment data, municipal census

Alberta Advanced , Red Deer, Education Regional of Wood Buffalo Pathways through the Access to general education system ledger files

Alberta Treasury and Alberta Health Finance Health records Quarterly provincial general ledger files, energy use data

32 Leveraging the expertise of…

Builder of Data quality and International confidentiality statistical Data integrator capacity leader

a modernized Statistics Canada

33 A modern, responsive statistical agency

Moving beyond a survey-first approach with new methods and integrating data from a variety of existing sources

Making our data easier to access and use by adopting new tools to analyze and visualize data

Helping more Canadians use data to make evidence-based decisions

34 Thank you!

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