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Government Expenditures in Alberta

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Government Expenditures in Alberta Government Expenditures in Alberta www.statcan.gc.ca Anil Arora Chief Statistician of Canada A presentation to Alberta Deputy Ministers February 12, 2018 ISSN 2368-6723 ISBN 978-0-660-25522-4 Correction notice On April 11th, 2018, the chart on GDP per capita in chained 2007 dollars was replaced by GDP per capita, at current prices, which is the appropriate per capita measure. Outline 1 Introduction . Who we are: Statistics Canada 2 Government Finances in Alberta . Reviewing the economic and demographic context . Impact on government finances . Government expenses by functions 3 Summary . Opportunities . Modernization . Questions 3 Who we are: Statistics Canada Connecting quality statistics to Canadians’ decision making . Leader in providing quality indicators and supporting responsible use of data . Capacity building nationwide and government-wide on the use of statistics Good policy Good evidence Good data 4 Reviewing the economic and demographic context Alberta is an economic force in Canada Even as declining oil prices led to … it had the highest provincial an economic downturn… GDP per capita in 2016 8% $80 $74 6% $70 $60 $56 4% $50 2% $40 0% current prices (thousands) $30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -2% $20 -4% $10 GDP capita, per at Percent (%) change in GDP, chained 2007 dollars -6% $0 Alberta Canada -8% Sources: CANSIM table 384-0038; The Conference Board of Canada, Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2017, 6 and Provincial Outlook: Autumn 2017. Rich in economic assets Oil and Gas Agriculture Tourism Science & Engineering 7 A young and growing population Alberta has a young population Alberta had the highest population growth amongst provinces between 2011 and 2016 Age Distribution, 2016 12% 18% 16% 15% 18% 60% 64% 61% 62% 62% B.C. Nfld. +5.6% +1.0% Alta. +11.6% Man. 21% 22% 25% 24% 20% +5.8% Que. P.E.I Sask. +3.3% +1.9% N.S Que. Ont. Sask. Alta. B.C. Ont. +6.3% +0.2% +4.6% N.B. 19 and under 20 to 64 65 and + -0.5% Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 and 2016 Census of Population. 8 A diverse population Half of the population living in Alberta Alberta has a sizeable was born outside the province aboriginal population Aboriginal Population Aboriginal Percent Born in province or territory of residence 400 18% Born outside Canada 16% Born in another province or territory 350 14% Alberta Canada 300 12% 250 10% 11% 200 25% 8% 24% 150 51% 6% 65% 100 Percent with Aboriginal identity 24% 4% Population Population with Aboriginal identity (thousands) 50 2% 0 0% Sask. Alta. B.C. Ont. Que. Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population. 9 A highly engaged labour force High participation rate High involvement Alberta Canada 72 Alberta Canada 76 70 74 68 72 66 70 64 68 62 66 by by group, 2017 60 64 Participation Participation (%)rate 58 62 Participation Participation (%)rate 56 60 Females Aboriginal Youth 15-24 Landed population (Both (Both Sexes) immigrants (Both Sexes) Sexes) Recent challenges Recent improvements 2,340 10 9 2,320 9 8 8 and 2,300 7 7 6 2,280 6 5 2,260 5 4 2,240 4 3 employment 3 2,220 2 unemployment rate Alberta Employment in 1,000s (Left Axis) 2 Total 2,200 Unemployment Unemployment rate (%) 1 Canada 1 Unemployment rate in % (Right Axis) 0 2,180 0 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM tables 282-0002, 282-0102, Jan-14 10 282-0226 and 282-0087 and Labour Force Survey. More employment in higher paid occupations Employees by occupation, Alberta Average hourly wage rate, 2017 variance from Canada, 2015 Business -0.02% $26.01 $3.85 Health -0.14% $29.79 $4.96 Management 0.57% $42.64 $2.89 Sciences 0.78% $35.89 $6.57 Natural resources 0.92% $23.57 $7.60 Culture -0.81% $23.03 $1.40 Education and government -1.54% $31.91 $1.80 Manufacturing and utilities -1.19% $22.02 $8.70 Canada Sales and service -1.50% $16.77 $2.02 Alberta (difference) Trades and transport 3.36% $25.91 $5.03 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population. Source: CANSIM table 282-0152. 11 Alberta’s economic assets and skilled workforce support wealth creation Lower prevalence of individuals with low income Percentage change in median Prevalence (%) of low income, 2015 12 household income, 2005 to 2015 10 8 6 4 2 0 Canada Que. Ont. Sask. Alta. B.C. Albertans spend less of their income on shelter Owner spending 30% or more on shelter costs, 2016 25 20 15 10 5 0 Canada Que. Ont. Sask. Alta. B.C. Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 and 2016 Census of Population. 12 The Alberta government has a revenue profile that reflects its natural resource economy Receives more royalties, but less sales tax Royalties and corporate tax revenues decreased and federal transfers due to decline in oil prices Government revenue composition, 2014 Alberta government revenue, by source 25% Alberta 12 2014 2016 20% Canada 10 8 15% revenue 6 10% 4 Dollars Dollars (billions) Share Share of 5% 2 0% - Personal Corporate Taxes on Sales Federal Royalties Personal Corporate Taxes on Sales Federal Royalties taxes taxes property taxes transfers taxes taxes property taxes transfers Government expense per capita in 2016 are higher than in most provinces Quebec $15,514 Ontario $13,841 Saskatchewan $16,906 Alberta $16,666 British Columbia $12,980 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 13 Source: CANSIM table 385-0042. Alberta spends more on labour, goods and services than other provincial governments Alberta government spends less on interest and The increase in the price of labour and goods and social benefits services for government was strong in Alberta Expense type per capita, 2016 General government final consumption expenditure, implicit price indexes, 2016 7,000 Que. Alberta 6,000 Ont. Canada Sask. 5,000 Alta. ( 2007 ( 2007 = 100 ) 4,000 B.C. 110 115 120 125 130 135 3,000 Public sector employment continues to grow Dollars Dollars per capita ($) 2,000 50 30 1,000 10 - 2014 2015 2016 2017 Salaries Goods and Social benefits Interest -10 services Private -30 of employees of employees (000) Public Change Change in the number -50 Source: CANSIM table 385-0042, 384-0039 and Labour Force Survey 14 Government Expense by Function Canadian Classification of Functions of Government Over half of Alberta’s public expenses are for health and education Alberta expense by functions, 2016 Economic affairs 14% Social protection 10% General public services 7% Health Other 34% Public order and safety 5% 45% Environmental protection 4% Recreation, culture, and religion 3% Education 21% Housing and community amenities 2% A similar proportion to other jurisdictions 16 Source: CANSIM table 385-0041 Alberta spends more on health and education per capita than the Canadian average Expense by function per capita, 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Health $4,944 $4,475 Education $3,047 $2,455 Economic affairs $2,112 $1,275 Social protection $1,393 $1,770 General public services $947 $1,658 Public order and safety $762 $723 Environmental protection $584 $301 Housing and community amenities $352 $239 Recreation, culture, and religion $431 $349 Alberta Canada While paying less on social protection and general public services Source: CANSIM table 385-0041. 17 Wages and payments to physicians are driving health expenses in Alberta Higher per capita expense on health in Alberta 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Quebec Payments to physicians in Alberta are the 1 Ontario highest in the country expense Saskatchewan capita ($),2016 capita 9,026 additional jobs in health in 2016, Health Health Alberta 2 per per 32,335 since 2011 British Columbia Health building permits value 3 Largest difference for wages and salaries of $2.1 billion since 2010 Canada Use of goods and services per per Alberta Canada expense Compensation of employees Alberta Sources: Health 1. CIHI National Physician Database capita by capita by ($),type 2016 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2. CANSIM table 281-0024 3. ISTD custom tabulation Sources: CANSIM table 385-0035 and 385-0042 18 Health employment and wages continue to increase Alberta’s employment in health grew at a Wages in health and social assistance are faster pace than Canada higher in Alberta Employment in health care and Average weekly earnings, social assistance (2011 = 100) health and social assistance 125 $1,000 $950 120 $900 115 $850 $800 110 $750 105 $700 $650 100 $600 95 $550 $500 90 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan Canada Alberta Alberta British Columbia Sources: CANSIM tables 281-0024 Sources: CANSIM tables 281-0027 19 Despite a younger population, health expenses and demand for services are high in Alberta Health expense per capita Acute hospital separations and median age, 2016 7,000 50 per 1,000 Capita, 2013 125 45 6,000 100 40 75 50 5,000 35 25 Alberta 30 Canada 4,000 0 25 3,000 Emergency room visits 20 Median age by acuity, 2013 Per Per capita dollars ($) Alberta Ontario 2,000 15 10 37% 1,000 44% 5 57% 63% 0 0 Expense Median age Sources: CANSIM table 385-0041; Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), Discharge Abstract Database. Source: 20 Albertans have higher health risk factors Positive factors, 2016 Negative factors, 2016 100% 30% 80% 20% 60% 40% 10% Percent of respondents (%) respondents of Percent Percent of respondents (%) respondents of Percent 20% 0% 0% Has a regular Physical activity Strong sense of Obese Daily smoker Heavy Perceived life healthcare belonging drinking stress provider Alberta British Columbia compared to British Columbians
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