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INOX LEISURE R Eady to Soar COMPANY PROFILE INOX LEISURE R eady to soar India Equity Research| Media Inox Leisure (INOX), the second-largest multiplex operator in India, is EDELWEISS RATINGS gaining palpable momentum underpinned by aggressive expansion plans Absolute Rating NOT RATED and customer-centric innovations. We believe, with a blockbuster FY19 and healthy balance sheet (low net debt equity of ~0.1x and INR1.4bn treasury stock), the company has ample firepower to expand organically as well as inorganically. Given the robust performance and aggression, we perceive INOX to be a formidable player. ‘NOT RATED’. MARKET DATA (R: INOL.BO, B: INOL IN) Expansion on track; Robust F&B and ad revenue potent catalysts CMP : INR 325 Target Price : NA INOX set an industry record in FY19 by opening the highest number of screens in a 52-week range (INR) : 382 / 189 year—85. On the cards is addition of 80 screens in FY20. INOX’s efforts to revamp Share in issue (mn) : 102.9 menus, bundle F&B products with online ticket sales and introducing gourmet offerings M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 34 / 492 have paid rich dividends. In FY19, company’s food & beverage (F&B) revenue jumped Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 294.0 ~43% YoY driven by robust footfalls and ~12% improvement in SPH. Moreover, ad revenue grew ~27% YoY, accounting for ~10% of total net revenue in FY19. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Current Q4FY19 Q3FY19 Sharpening luxury focus and innovations to enhance value Promoters % 51.9 51.9 51.9 INOX’s ATP and SPH for the premium and luxury screens are typically ~3-4x of normal MF's, FI's & 21.4 21.4 20.9 BK’s ATP and SPH with an average occupancy of ~40%—significantly higher than the normal FII's 11.3 11.3 12.1 26-28%. As of FY19, luxury format constitutes ~9% of total screen count, up from ~4% Others 15.1 15.1 14.8 in FY16 and this increase is likely to continue. INOX is also one of three multiplex * Promoters pledged shares : 0.0 (% of share in issue) chains globally selected to screen ICC World Cup 2019 matches. RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (%) PVR ahead, but INOX fast catching up Stock over Sensex Stock While PVR continues to lead the race, INOX is posing tough competition. We evaluate a Sensex few parameters for both the players to draw comparisons. As mentioned in our 1 month (0.2) (8.3) (8.1) previous note as well (WatchDog: The multiplex showdown), INOX is fast catching up. 3 months 3.8 1.5 (2.3) 12 months 12.4 25.5 13.1 Outlook and valuation: Blockbuster prospects; ‘NOT RATED’ INOX is headed in the right direction armed with aggressive expansion plans, focus on high-margin segments and unwavering efforts to enhance customer experience. On valuations, INOX currently trades at ~24x FY19 EPS, at a discount to PVR, which trades ~42x FY19 EPS. The stock is ‘NOT RATED’. Financials (INR mn) Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Abneesh Roy Revenues (INR mn) 11,589 12,207 13,481 16,922 +91 22 6620 3141 [email protected] EBITDA (INR mn) 1,899 1,461 2,104 3,083 Adjusted Profit (INR mn) 824 319 1,263 1,385 Prateek Barsagade Adjusted Diluted EPS (INR) 9.0 3.5 13.7 13.5 +91 22 4063 5407 Diluted P/E (x) 35.9 92.7 23.4 23.9 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 17.6 22.3 15.3 11.1 ROAE (%) 17.1 5.9 20.7 17.0 June 28, 2019 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Media What we like… Aggressive expansion on-track INOX set an industry record in FY19 by opening the highest number of screens in a year— 85. While management’s plan is to add ~80 screens in FY20, we anticipate minor setbacks due to competition, real estate challenges and regulatory delays. These notwithstanding, compared to competitors, the company has a strong balance sheet, lending it ample firepower to boost screen count organically as well as inorganically. F&B spends to log healthy spurt INOX’s efforts to revamp menus, diversify offerings, bundle F&B products with online ticket sales and fresh-cooked food products in premium formats have paid rich dividends. The company also offers premium and gourmet cuisines at its premium properties, giving patrons a wider variety. INOX’s FY19 F&B revenue jumped ~43% YoY driven by footfall growth and marginal improvement in SPH. F&B revenue continues to remain critical for multiplexes considering the high margins and rising participation of audience in F&B offerings. Steady growth in ad revenue With the multiplex industry gaining steam and deepening penetration across India, it is becoming a steady advertisement avenue for advertisers. INOX’s ad revenue grew ~27% YoY, accounting for ~10% of total FY19 net revenue. Ad revenue per screen, as of FY19, stands at INR3.1mn, significantly higher than INR2.3mn in FY16, growing at a CAGR of ~10%. Luxury/differentiated formats spurring ARPU INOX has premium format screens housed under the Insignia brand, which provides customers a luxury movie-viewing experience along with gourmet food offerings. It’s pertinent to note that ATP and SPH dynamics herein are superior—~3-4x—than normal screen formats. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Inox Leisure Screen expansions to ramp up market share Screen expansion robust in FY19; screen strategy changing FY19 proved to be a blockbuster year for INOX, not just in terms of footfall and revenue, but also on the screen expansion front. The company added 85 screens (82 screens on net basis), indicating its aggressive expansion stance. Though seats per screen have dipped to 236 in FY19 from 270 in FY14 (down 13%), the number of screens per property is likely to increase. The latter offers multiplexes additional screen inventory, hedge against content risk, potential for higher footfalls as well as occupancy. Major expansion plans on the anvil INOX set an industry record in FY19 by opening the highest number of screens in a year—85. While management’s plan is to add ~80 screens in FY20, we anticipate minor setbacks from competition, real estate challenges and regulatory delays. These notwithstanding, compared to competitors the company has a strong balance sheet, lending it ample fuel to boost screen count organically as well as inorganically. Tweaking screen strategy Though INOX’s seats per screen have dipped to 236 in FY19 from 270 in FY14 (down13%), the number of screens per property is likely to increase. The latter offers multiplexes additional screen inventory, hedge against content risk, potential for higher footfalls as well as occupancy. Enhanced reach and rise in movies breaching the INR1bn box office collection Higher number of multiplex screens has not only changed the mix of movies being screened at cinema halls, but also reduced the number of days to achieve INR1bn box office collection. Also, improving multiplex penetration in tier-II towns and transparency will result in better ticket collection for movies. Fig. 1: Break down of screens across regions Source: Company 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Inorganic expansion entails synergistic benefits India’s multiplex industry underwent significant consolidation in the past decade and four players—PVR, INOX, Cinepolis and Carnival Cinemas—currently dominate the market. Though significant consolidation hereon appears low as multiplexes have already spread their reach across different pockets in the country, we do expect some activity. Additionally, with commercial malls and other real estate properties coming up at a slower-than- expected pace, we envisage acquisitions in the multiplex industry. In CY18, PVR acquired SPI Cinemas (76 screens) to gain entry and establish a footing in the South market. CY14-15 also saw a couple of rounds of consolidation with Carnival Cinema’s entry in to the big league through three major acquisitions—HDIL Broadway (33 screens), Reliance-owned Big Cinemas (258 screens) and Stargaze Entertainment (30 screens). Other prominent acquisitions include INOX buying Satyam Cineplexes (38 screens) and Cinepolis acquiring Fun Cinemas (83 screens). Table 1: Past deals in the multiplex industry Number of screens EV/screen EV/EBITDA Deal Date Status acquired EV (INR mn) (INR mn) (trailing) PVR - SPI Cinemas Aug-18 Completed 76 10,000 132 15.8x PVR - DT Cinemas Jun-15 Completed 32 4,330 135 NA Carnival - Glitz Jan-15 Completed 30 900 30 NA Carnival - Big Cinemas Dec-14 Completed 258 7,000 27 29x Cinepolis-Fun Dec-14 Completed 83 5,400 65 13.5x Carnival - HDIL Jul-14 Completed 33 1,100 33 NA Inox - Satyam Jul-14 Completed 38 2,200 58 15.7x PVR - Cinemax Nov-12 Completed 139 5,700 41 9.0x Inox - Fame Feb-10 Completed 95 1,880 20 10.6x Source: Edelweiss research Previously, INOX had expanded its footprint in North India, particularly Delhi, with the acquisition of Satyam Cineplexes. This was the company’s third acquisition after the acquisition of Fame in 2010 and 89 cinemas in 2006. Currently, the company’s screen portfolio is West-heavy with 42% of screens in the region; only 16% screens are in the East. With these acquisitions, the company gained access to cities where it was not present earlier. Following are the synergy benefits of inorganic acquisitions: Revenue enhancement: INOX, being the second-largest multiplex player in India, can derive synergy in advertising and F&B revenues. Apart from increased ad inventory due to inorganic expansion, it can command better price compared to a standalone entity.
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