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PVR Limited Upside: 9.90% PVR (NSE) Current Price: 1186.85 (As of 10.10.16) 532689 (BSE)

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PVR Limited Upside: 9.90% PVR (NSE) Current Price: 1186.85 (As of 10.10.16) 532689 (BSE) CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by Indian Association of Investment Professionals Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies, Mumbai Rating: HOLD Company: PVR Ltd. (PVRL) Industry: Media and Entertainment Target Price: INR 1304.30 PVR Limited Upside: 9.90% PVR (NSE) Current Price: 1186.85 (as of 10.10.16) 532689 (BSE) Exhibi�ng Strength, But Expensive Ticker Highlights . PVR (NSE) We recommend a HOLD call on PVR Limited (PVR) with a one-year target price of INR 1304.30 using . 532689 (BSE) Discounted Cash Flow and Mul�ples Method. This offers a 9.9% upside from its closing price of INR . PVRL:IN (Bloomberg) th 1186.85 on 10 October, 2016. PVR is using the strength of its financial posi�on and low levered balance . PVRL.NS (Reuters) sheet to expand its presence in the country. The revenue growth will be driven by its focus on enhanced Key Data user experience. However, our es�mates indicate that the current price reflects most of these benefits and a higher price rise is possible only when risks like increased compe��on, reducing price premium Closing Market Price (INR) 1186.85 and challenges to expansion are alleviated. 52 Week High/Low 1334.8/645.25 Market leader in film exhibi�on industry Current O/S Shares (Mn) 46.68 PVR has built a strong footprint of mul�plexes in prime loca�ons of major ci�es. It has high average Mkt Cap (INR Bn/USD Mn) 55.40/836.29 �cket prices and higher occupancy than the other top 3 mul�plex players in the country. High occupancy Daily Volume (6M NSE Avg) 0.153 Mn and spend per head makes PVR the most preferred for the mall developers. The benefit of premium Face Value (INR) 10 loca�on is also evident in 9% CAGR in F&B SPH and 10.12% CAGR in ad revenue per screen from 2011-12 Dividend Yield 0.17% to 2015-16. It has been most innova�ve in adop�ng latest technologies and providing best consumer Beta 0.6109 experience. th As on 10 October, 2016; Source: Bloomberg Stock price movement Expansion in underpenetrated market: Double Edged Sword 1400 1200000 PVR has had a record of acquisi�on led growth when expanding its geographic reach. The acquisi�on of 1200 1000000 DT cinemas helped it to expand its reach in the North and Cinemax gave it access to South and West 1000 800000 India. This gives it the scope to drive up opera�ng leverage and expand the ancillary business. For 800 600000 further expansion, it is now focusing on the high occupancy market of South India along with Tier 2/3 600 400000 ci�es. 400 However, players like Carnival and Inox have a strong presence in smaller ci�es. Increased compe��ve 200 200000 0 0 pressure and lower discre�onary spending of people in these ci�es will have an impact on the premium Nov-2015 Apr-2016 Oct-2016 pricing ability of PVR. Also, its policy of not acquiring single screens for expansion can have an impact on As on 10th October, 2016; Source: Bloomberg its long-term growth. Table 1: Stock returns Slow development of malls and content quality key drivers of concern -3- -6- -12- PVR looks for upmarket loca�ons for expansion. However, slow development of malls con�nues to be a Return Month Month Month cause of concern. Owing to low foo�alls and high vacancy rates of malls in �er 2 and �er 3 ci�es, PVR’s aim of expanding does not look favorable. Absolute 19.58% 59.45% 44.14% PVR had a considerable fall in profits in FY 15 due to poor content quality which highlights the inherent Source: nseindia.com risk in the exhibi�on business. This risk remains high and poor performance of movies in coming fiscal can adversely affect the revenues. Table 2: Strong Financials Key Ratios 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E EBITDA margin 14% 19% 19% 20% 22% 23% 24% Operating profit margin 6% 12% 11% 13% 15% 17% 18% Net Profit Margin 1% 6% 6% 9% 9% 11% 12% Debt to Assets 0.52 0.35 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.09 0.03 Interest Coverage Ratio 1.16 2.7 3.09 5.61 10.36 20.73 26.7 Fixed Asset Turnover 1.73 1.93 1.76 2.11 2.43 2.76 3.21 Ratio Earnings Per Share 3.09 26.36 30.14 52.26 64.09 82.55 107.33 Return on Equity 3% 14% 14% 20% 20% 21% 22% Source: Company data, Team Estimates 1 Business Description Fig 1: Business Segments PVR Limited, incorporated in 1995, is the top cinema exhibition company in India with 557 screens across 121 properties in 48 cities. It had established the first multiplex cinema of India in 1997 at Saket, New Delhi. PVR came into existence pursuant to a joint venture between Priya Exhibitors Private Limited and Village Roadshow Limited, Australia. Village Roadshows divested its stake in PVR in November 2002. PVR entered the capital market with its IPOs in December 2005 and raised equity of INR 228.8 Million. The company acquired Cinemax in 2012 which helped it scale up and become the largest multiplex company in India. PVR is present in the movie distribution business and has also ventured into retail entertainment and management of food courts to diversify its revenue stream. Source: Company, Team Research Subsidiaries: Its subsidiaries include PVR Cinemas, PVR Leisure and PVR Pictures. PVR Leisure looks into the food and beverage and retail entertainment concepts. PVR BluO, the largest bowling chain in India, has 151 Fig 2: Shareholding Pattern odd bowling lanes across 7 centers. Mistral combines the film and food experience by providing prime food indulgence. PVR pictures is the distribution subsidiary, which has distributed 430 independent international films and big studio productions till date. All the subsidiaries have their own CEOs, highlighting that the company is focusing on each segment separately to help them evolve. 25.73% 34.62% Shareholding Structure Bijli Holding Pvt. Ltd. is categorized as the promoter shareholder. Promoter’s shareholding has decreased from 11.59% about 40% to 25% from FY07 to FY16 to keep capital structure at manageable level and to fund expansion. In FY14 2.5% stake was diluted for delisting of Cinemax and in FY 16 10% stake was issued to PE firms for DT 0.02% 28.03% Cinemas acquisition. Promoters Mutual Funds/UTI Company Strategies FIIs Banks/FI Strategic locations and expansion: PVR looks out for premium properties for its business and partners with Others real estate companies to develop sites at prime locations which will see increase in footfall. DT Cinemas, with Source: Company, Team Research their upmarket presence, will add 32 screens in Chandigarh and National Capital Region. Also, PVR is currently focusing on the expansion in the tier 2 and 3 cities along with an eye on southern India due to the highly Fig 3: Promoters holding diluted for fund underpenetrated market and average occupancy as high as 50 to 55%. Thus, to expand its reach, it has expansions planned an INR 2.5 Billion capex which it expects to meet through internal cash flows. 60% 50% Technological Best: PVR is providing the differentiated cinema viewing experience with their latest technology 40% inclusions, innovation and newer formats. The company is planning to rollout Dolby Atmos enabled screens 30% across the country. 4DX technology, which stimulates all the senses to match the audio and video in both 2D 20% and 3D, along with the growing disposition for 3D films from Bollywood and Hollywood will give PVR the 10% revenue boost. 0% Customer experience: To increase customer engagement, PVR has launched three new products. ICE or the Interactive Customer Experience provides patrons an opportunity to rate their overall experience at PVR Source: Company, Team Research cinemas. Movies First, India’s first movie e-magazine and PVR Movie Calendar keep the customers involved Fig 4: Diversified offerings through movie-based quizzes and reminders for the upcoming releases. PVR has also partnered with online aggregators like Paytm, BookMyShow and JustDial for its ticket sales. These have already seen an increment of 50% in online ticket sales. The company launched PVR Icon in Versova, Mumbai for tech-savvy audience and introduced the concept of Superplex to North India. This highlights that PVR is dedicated to make movie- viewing experience seamless for its patrons. Diversification: By acquiring 70 percent stake in Zea Maize Pvt Ltd, which owns the Delhi-based start-up 4700BC Popcorn, PVR is scaling up its food and beverage business. The company has partnered with SpiceJet, AirAsia and Café Coffee Day to sell the gourmet pop corns. The company also bought Lettuce Entertainment Source: Company Investor Presentation You limited in 2015 to further add to the already existing line of Mistral restaurants. PVR keeps adding different dimensions to its business to be ahead of the market players. Fig 5: PVR’s regional screen presence expected to increase in South in 5 years North Corporate Governance 40% 30% PVR places strong emphasis on business ethics and equity in dealing with the shareholders, employees, 20% government and lenders. The company follows the Company’s Act 2013 guidelines for the board of directors 10% and independent committees as below: West 0% East • Committees: Audit, Nomination and Remuneration and Stakeholder Relationship committees satisfy the composition and attendance requirements. • Women Director: PVR has one women director on its board of members. • Independent Directors: Out of the 9 board of directors, 5 are independent who are taken through South 2016 2021E familiarisation programs and interactive sessions with company heads.
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