Urban Transport Challenge:

Planning for Growth in South East Infrastructure Partnerships

8th Floor 8-10 Loftus Street Sydney NSW 2000 T +61 2 9240 2050 F +61 2 9240 2055 www.infrastructure.org.au

For more information please contact:

Brendan Lyon Executive Director Infrastructure Partnerships Australia PO Box R 1804, Royal Exchange, Sydney NSW 1225 T +61 2 9240 2050 E [email protected]

Peter Colacino National Manager - Policy Infrastructure Partnerships Australia PO Box R 1804, Royal Exchange, Sydney NSW 1225 T +61 2 9240 2050 E [email protected]

Phil Bullock Senior Manager Saha International Suite 1, Level 12, Tower 3, Darling Park 201 Sussex Street, Sydney NSW 2000 T + 61 2 8299 4236 E [email protected] 3 Contents

Preface 2

Executive summary 3

Recommendations 6

Introduction 8

Setting the scene 8

The growth challenge 10

The response so far 16

What next? 20

Conclusion 32

Recommendations 34

References 35

1 Preface

During the final stages of preparing this paper, the Auditor- • The continued use of out of date key transport documents General of Queensland released a major report to Parliament, and plans may result in decisions that are based on Transport Network Management and Urban Congestion obsolete data and assumptions, and will not effectively in : A Performance Management address the current challenges; and Systems Audit. As with this paper, the research on which the Auditor-General’s Report is based was undertaken during the • Inconsistencies in data collection and reporting might have final quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. significant impacts on the entities’ ability to base their plans on accurate, complete and timely data, as well as to The Audit, released in June 2009, considered the impact of report on outcomes achieved. urban congestion on South East Queensland and the growing pressure on the transport network caused by population The Auditor-General concluded that “no one entity can deal growth and increasing economic activity in the region. with the critical issue of congestion alone and genuine collaboration is vital to tackle it successfully”. The Audit also The Auditor-General specifically examined the governance found “an integrated government response involving entities structures and systems for the planning, reporting and working across portfolios, agency boundaries and tiers of management of the transport network in South East government is necessary”. This recommendation and others Queensland. In his report, the Auditor-General found that from the Audit complement the conclusions drawn from this while both the Queensland Government and City paper. Council are ‘committed to an efficient transport network and have identified urban congestion as a significant issue’, While the Auditor-General focused on the identification of a lack of coordination and weak governance structures were deficiencies in the planning and governance process, this hindering progress towards significant efficiency gains. The paper considers a broader range of issues and presents Auditor-General identified four key areas of concern: a series of positive recommendations to strengthen the planning process through a partnership between key • Leadership at the state level is not coordinated effectively government jurisdictions and the private sector. and makes it more difficult for government agencies to manage the transport network and urban congestion in an It should also be noted that the Queensland Government integrated and coordinated manner; announced during May 2009, the commencement of a process towards the development of a new integrated • Due to a systematic weakness in integrated planning transport plan for the region - Connecting SEQ 2031. This across government agencies, there is no certainty that the plan represents a worthy incremental change in the State’s agreed responses will achieve the right mix between the planning process towards the goal of a truly long-term, multi- different elements of an urban transport network, such as jurisdictional, integrated transport plan. land-use, transport infrastructure, demand management and intermodal options;

2 Executive summary

Background Maintaining a commitment to deliver projects in the ‘infrastructure pipeline’ will be critical to managing congestion Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (IPA) in partnership with and securing regional growth, but is a significant challenge Saha International (SAHA) have developed a discussion paper given current economic circumstances. on urban growth and congestion in South East Queensland. Planners and policy makers are now faced with further This paper analyses the historical and projected rapid growth challenges, and opportunities. in population, the economy and congestion in South East Queensland, and the impacts of this growth on transport infrastructure. It considers the reasons why congestion may continue to increase, even when taking into account the The congestion challenge current suite of projects which are under development or being planned. The paper then explores policy responses A key challenge will be managing congestion in the face of which may be needed beyond infrastructure projects strong population growth. While the current global financial planned in the medium term, including integrated planning, crisis will undoubtedly slow the region’s economic growth, strengthened governance regimes, non-infrastructure longer term population estimates and their implications solutions and various investment and reform measures. cannot be ignored. By 2020 it is expected that congestion will cost the Brisbane economy around $3 billion per annum. In the longer term, this cost is likely to be substantially higher. Depending on the estimation method used, our analysis Urban growth and infrastructure suggests that by 2055 congestion costs in Brisbane could be responses between $6 billion and $9 billion per annum if improvements to the transport system are not delivered – two to three times South East Queensland is one of the fastest growing regions higher than cost predictions for 2020. The figure below shows in Australia. Between 1986 and 2004, the region’s population how congestion costs will increase over time, based on our increased by an average of 50,000 people each year. By 2031, upper estimate of $9 billion per annum. South East Queensland will have a population larger than Queensland’s current total population. It is important to recognise that these are not just one-off costs to the economy, but are incurred every year. These costs This population growth has placed a strain on infrastructure. are for Brisbane alone - the figure is undoubtably higher if So far the responses by governments to this challenge have congestion for the whole of South East Queensland is taken been substantial, and there has been an unprecedented level into account. of investment in a wide range of infrastructure projects. Figure 1 Annual congestion costs over time The principal State Government planning strategy to manage this growth, the South East Queensland Regional 10 Plan (SEQRP), provides a medium to long term approach 9 for land-use planning. Since the introduction of SEQRP, 8 the infrastructure planning process has been strengthened 7 6 through the creation of a supplementary document specifically 5 focused on infrastructure requirements - the South East 4 Queensland Infrastructure Plan and Program (SEQIPP). 3 2 1 State and local governments have worked in partnership to

Annual congestion costs $ (billion) 0 address some of the key limitations of the transport network, and have developed an improved, more integrated transport 2046 2050 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2054 2042 2038 system. Since its first release, SEQIPP has become a widely Year accepted infrastructure program across different tiers of government, and is linked with State Government budget planning processes.

3 Strong, proactive decision making in relation to long-term transport infrastructure projects, and to thoroughly integrate transport and land-use planning will be vital to avoid rapid transport and land-use planning across various modes in its growth in congestion costs. For example, delaying difficult infrastructure planning development. decisions about preserving land corridors for the future will carry a large opportunity cost and dramatically increase levels A centralised authority for road and transport planning of car dependency and congestion in the long term. and governance could provide important benefits to South East Queensland. The recent amalgamation of the State’s Policy makers in South East Queensland also have an Department of Main Roads and Department of Transport opportunity to learn from the experience of other Australian represents an important step towards more integrated cities that are further along the population growth path, and planning processes. However, further steps are required to have already confronted some of these issues. provide local authorities with greater input into the planning process, particularly Brisbane City Council, which is a major public transport operator in its own right, and is currently Planning processes and governance delivering major transport infrastructure projects. arrangements

Many Australian cities do not have a clear vision for Planning horizons infrastructure development. Historically, Australian state governments have been poor at developing integrated land- To produce the best social, environmental and economic use and transport planning strategies. outcomes, it is essential that planned infrastructure investments are reviewed through a regular transparent The SEQRP/SEQIPP planning process represents one of prioritisation process examining the costs and benefits of the best and most successful examples of an integrated proposed projects. This regular analysis will help ensure the transport and land-use strategy in Australia. The close right solutions, which offer the greatest potential benefits, relationship between land-use and population planning, and are those that are put into place. Rigid adherence to integrated infrastructure planning has been vital for delivering transport infrastructure planning through ‘lines on maps’ will recent improvements to the South East Queensland not necessarily deliver the best outcomes for the community. transport system. Scenario based planning is an effective way of considering how transport and land-use needs may change in the long SEQIPP includes steps, albeit informally, to bring together term (up to 50 years), and should be used to guide short the infrastructure plans of agencies across tiers of term project planning and sequencing. Planning processes government over a medium term horizon. This approach should be flexible enough to respond to changes in transport should be commended - SEQIPP provides a welcome needs and urban form, and new and emerging policy contribution to the infrastructure market, providing increased instruments. certainty for infrastructure investment and strengthening governance within the region.

While the unique (state-local) governance arrangements in Non-infrastructure solutions and South East Queensland have enabled an effective response road pricing to recent transport challenges, there may be opportunities for further improvements. The establishment of the TransLink Non-infrastructure solutions should be a key part of the Transit Authority shows what can be achieved from more response to the congestion challenge. Further consideration integrated planning across jurisdictions. should be given to the introduction of congestion management initiatives such as motorway ramp metering, This Paper recommends the establishment of a single T-2 and T-3 commuter vehicle and priority measures for planning authority for South East Queensland which public transport. These are just a few of the ways in which incorporates the various jurisdictions and planning the transport network can be managed more effectively, frameworks in the region. Such an authority is now required without the need for investment in new infrastructure. to prioritise the planning, development and financing of

4 Now is also the time to start talking about what should transport improvements within a short time frame and at happen when building new roads is no longer an option. a reduced cost to taxpayers, but can also lessen the ability Road pricing should be part of this debate. This is important of authorities to manage the transport network in a unified because decisions taken now may influence the extent way. Steps should be taken now to ensure that financing to which road pricing could be introduced in the future. arrangements for infrastructure developments do not restrict Developing a large number of road projects using a (part or options for managing the South East Queensland transport total) privately financed model, for instance, can help deliver network in the future.

5 Recommendations

This report recommends a series of 3. Commitment to the current project pipeline: reforms in order to strengthen the Despite the impacts of the global financial crisis, governments planning and governance processes must give a firm commitment to established planning as they apply to the South East processes, and ensure the timely delivery of priority projects. This is essential to meet the future population needs of Queensland transport network. the region and combat rising congestion costs, as well as providing a shorter term boost to the South East Queensland economy. Key projects requiring funding commitments from 1. Create a single, cross-jurisdictional transport governments include: planning body for South East Queensland: • Road and motorway projects This body would provide a forum for the various government jurisdictions to develop a single, unified transport infrastructure - Northern Link plan for the South East Queensland region. The body would - South also: - Port of Brisbane Motorway Upgrade - (Darra to Rocklea) • prioritise the planning, development and financing of - Centenary Highway upgrade and extension - including transport infrastructure projects; Darra to Ipswich Transport Corridor (Stage 2)

• provide a structure for the assessment of joint project • Public transport projects funding by government to reduce cost shifting; - (Stages 2 and 3) • integrate planning across different modes of transport; - the Inner Brisbane Rail Capacity Upgrade - Rail Extension • develop a forum for consultation on network impacts of road - gold Coast Light Rail (Stage 2) toll price variations; - darra to Ipswich Transport Corridor (Stage 2) - New Passenger Rolling Stock • support the interaction of land-use and transport planning, and; 4. Consideration of non-infrastructure solutions: • establish a model framework to better engage the Commonwealth Government in infrastructure provision in The development of infrastructure assets currently planned Queensland’s major cities. or under-construction should consider from the outset future opportunities to provide greater integration as part of a single Under this new approach, project delivery and operational transport network. Key considerations should include: management would remain with current tiers of government and associated agencies. • uniform road pricing across the network;

• first-in first-served systems, such as ramp metering; 2. Planning for the long term - a 50 year horizon: • user information systems, such as variable message signs Current long-term planning across governments in South East (VMS) and dynamic trip-time indicators; Queensland is for periods of less than 20 years. These horizons should be significantly broadened to 50 years, allowing for real • behaviour-based systems, such as T-2 and T-3 or public integration between land-use and supporting infrastructure transport lanes, and; development. This change will mirror the planning horizon already used for water infrastructure in South East Queensland. • the identification and reservation of land corridors for future development.

6 7 Introduction Setting the scene

Transport infrastructure in South East Queensland is at a South East Queensland is one of the fastest growing regions crossroads. Major population growth, urban sprawl and in Australia. Between 1986 and 20041, the region’s population rising congestion costs have resulted in various levels increased by an average of 50,000 people each year. By 2031, of government having to plan an unprecedented level of South East Queensland will have a population larger than transport infrastructure development over the next 20 years. Queensland’s current total population2. A large amount of recent growth has occurred in the outer Brisbane suburbs, This paper analyses the historical and projected rapid growth resulting in the formation of a large metropolis stretching from in population, the economy and congestion in South East Coolangatta in the south to Noosa Heads in the north and Queensland, and the impacts of this growth on transport Ipswich and Toowoomba in the west. infrastructure. This rapid population growth shows few signs of abating in The paper also considers the reasons why congestion may the near future. The population is expected to increase from continue to increase, even when taking into account the the 2006 level of 2.78 million to 4.4 million by 2031, and 5.25 current suite of projects either under development or in the million by 20563. On average South East Queensland will planning stages. experience an annual growth rate of 1.80 per cent per annum up to 2031, compared to 1.14 per cent for Sydney and 1.38 The paper then asks the fundamental question: what happens per cent for Melbourne over the same period4. The region’s next? Further responses beyond the medium term delivery recent growth has been greater than many have expected. of infrastructure projects are considered, including longer Government population estimates published in 20055 term planning, new governance arrangements and non- were amended just 16 months later because growth rates infrastructure measures. exceeded original expectations.

Between 1986 and 2004, the population of South East Queensland grew by an average of 50,000 people each year. By 2031, the region will have a population larger than Queensland’s current total population.

Recent population growth has placed a strain on infrastructure. Federal, state and local governments are, to some extent, playing catch up and investing heavily in a wide range of projects, from hospitals and housing developments, to water and transport infrastructure.

Recognising the detrimental impact this growth could have on the quality of life of its residents, in 2005 the Queensland Government released the South East Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP) to govern the urban form of the region for the medium to longer term.

Underpinning the Regional Plan is a detailed infrastructure plan, known as the South East Queensland Infrastructure Plan and Program (SEQIPP). SEQIPP compiled the most substantial and essential infrastructure projects identified by

8 various levels of government, and combined them into a single In light of these factors, there is a need for ongoing and coherent plan, initially requiring an estimated investment of dynamic assessment of the infrastructure program and $55 billion between 2005 and 2026. individual projects to ensure they provide the best response to medium term demand. While the SEQIPP is updated As a result of expansions to the plan and cost revisions, this annually and has formed part of the Queensland Government value increased to $66 billion in 2006 and to $107 billion in budgeting processes, it does call into question the more 2009. An updated version of the plan was released on 16 July, fundamental underlying demand drivers and whether these and identifies infrastructure investment totalling $124 billion should be reviewed on a more frequent basis. between now and 2026. Of this total, $94.6 billion is allocated for road, rail and public transport infrastructure. The latest In addition, there is now considerable pressure on the version of the plan is heavily focused on job creation. Project infrastructure program arising from the shorter term economic delivery timelines have also been re-sequenced in light of the issues currently confronting Australian governments. While global financial crisis. plans and programs must remain flexible to confront these shorter term challenges, it does not remove the need for the In terms of transport infrastructure commitments, the infrastructure program itself which is, and will remain, an SEQIPP is significant and will play a major role in balancing important part of South East Queensland’s ongoing growth. current demand and capacity constraints. However, as major infrastructure plans, such as SEQIPP, are underpinned by These are important issues and need to be part of the debate predictions about future levels of travel activity. They are about the future of transport in South East Queensland and always subject to the risk of changing demand drivers and how a single and all encompassing infrastructure plan may differences in growth from the original forecasts. continue to respond to the challenges.

For example, according to some reports, over the two year In the following sub-sections, we consider the dimensions of period from 2003-04 to 2005-06, total vehicle kilometres growth in South East Queensland, and the response to date of travel across South East Queensland declined by 8 per from transport planners and policy makers. The second section cent6. In addition, considerable growth has occurred in public of the paper considers longer term issues, and opportunities transport patronage both within Brisbane and in other cities for improving the way that the region’s transport system is around Australia7. Anecdotal evidence suggests that high fuel managed. costs (prior to the recent financial crisis) played an important role in raising this public transport patronage share.

Conversely, other figures provide a more stark long term view of growth in transport activity. Information recently released by the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) suggests that by 2030, more than 170,000 vehicles will travel along the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast each day - almost double 2005 volumes8.

9 The growth challenge

The importance of South East New urban growth areas Queensland Housing in South East Queensland has historically taken the South East Queensland is no longer just a series of disparate form of low density, urban sprawl. Between 1991 and 1998, 76 geographic areas. In practical terms the region now functions per cent of Brisbane’s population growth occurred in its outer as a single metropolitan area. Aside from being a desirable suburbs16. Figure 2 shows the highest areas of population place in which to live, the region is important in economic growth in Brisbane since the most recent census period terms. Between 2007 and 2008, the Queensland economy (2001-2006). While there was some growth of inner city areas grew by 5.3 per cent - the largest growth rate of any state9. during this time, most growth occurred in the outer suburbs, South East Queensland plays a predominant role in the particularly to the west of Brisbane. By 2016, half of Brisbane’s Queensland economy, contributing over 60 per cent of population is expected to be found in these outer areas17. This Queensland’s Gross State Product10. will include an expected 1 million people in areas such as Logan, Ipswich, Beaudesert, Redcliffe and Caboolture18. Population growth is integral to the economy. For every 10,000 migrants that move into a region, an additional $70 million in new retail spending and $25 million in new supermarket spending is generated11. Since 71 per cent of the State’s By 2016 it is expected that half of forecast total population increase from 2006-2031 is expected Brisbane’s population will be located to occur in South East Queensland, a large proportion of new spending is also likely to occur in the region12 supporting in the outer suburbs of the city continued strong economic growth.

Future population changes Figure 2 High growth areas over most recent census period19

Substantial population growth is expected to occur in South East Queensland in the coming decades. A comparison of growth rates from 1981 to 2031 is shown below. In overall 20 km terms the region’s population is expected to grow by more than 1.54 million over the next 25 years13. This translates into 10 km an average of 60,000 people moving into the region each 5 km year14.

Table 1 Annual population growth by decade15 Source: Queensland’s Future Population 2008 Edition, includes Toowoomba SD

Compound Population Percent annual Decade growth per change over growth rate annum 10 year period (CAGR)

1981-1991 45,800 2.7% 30.8% 1991-2001 54,100 2.5% 27.8% Changing household sizes 2001-2011 67,800 2.4% 27.3% In the absence of policies to increase housing densities, 2011-2021 67,700 2.0% 21.4% the region’s population could become even more dispersed. In 2001 the average household size (occupancy rate) in 2021-2031 59,200 1.4% 15.4% South East Queensland was 2.6, with one and two person

10 households accounting for 50 per cent of all households20. By 2026, two person households are expected to account for 60 Case study 1: per cent of all households in the region21. Does high density living have Housing demand is expected to grow at a higher rate than a place across South East population growth. Over 2006 to 2031 the overall population Queensland? in South East Queensland is expected to increase by 58 per cent while the number of dwellings will increase by 65 One way to understand the future challenges that per cent22. Though population growth rates in South East South East Queensland may face is to look at problems Queensland are expected to decline slightly after 2011, growth experienced in other Australian cities. Developments in urban housing demand may not necessarily follow the same in Sydney over the past 10 to 20 years raise a number 23 course . of issues which may need to be considered by policy makers and residents in South East Queensland. Sydney is characterised by low to medium density An extra 700,000 dwellings will be housing, sprawling from the city centre to the north, south and west. Until recently, Sydney has responded needed in South East Queensland over to transport challenges primarily by building additional the next 25 years motorway capacity. Through a series of major transport infrastructure developments, the city now has a comprehensive orbital motorway network.

However, this high capacity road network has not The region’s increasing population and decreasing household solved all to Sydney’s problems and congestion remains sizes mean that more than 700,000 extra dwellings will be a major issue. What does a city do when congestion 24 needed over the next 25 years . This will bring the total continues to rise but it cannot build its way out of the number of dwellings in South East Queensland to 1.9 million, problem? This is a question that Sydney currently faces, or more than 80 new dwellings each day for the next 25 and it is the same question urban planners in South years25. East Queensland will continue to grapple with.

Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) are one possible response to the problem. TODs are largely self- The Western Corridor contained communities comprising a public transport hub surrounded by medium to high density living areas, In light of these population changes, the 2009 South East shopping areas, business and recreation facilities. Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP) identified the Western Corridor between Brisbane and Ipswich as the next major The South East Queensland Regional Plan has identified growth area for the region. This represents an important shift a number of areas for TODs including , from previous plans, which focused on growth in coastal Milton, Bowen Hills and Albion. Additionally, the plan areas. Comparing 2006 household levels to the number of has identified green zones to control the city’s borders, dwellings required by 2031 shows that there will be a 210 per while also setting targets for infill and redevelopment. cent increase in households in the Ipswich area compared to 60 per cent on the Gold Coast and 80 per cent on the Despite these developments, Brisbane residents Sunshine Coast26. appear to be divided on the role of TODs within the city. In the future not all families may be able to live in a ‘Queenslander’ on a quarter acre block. However, a What will this focus on the Western Corridor mean for the change in values will be needed before TODs are truly region’s congestion and infrastructure needs in the long term? embraced by the community. Residents may need to As discussed in the case study below, moving away from accept a new set of living arrangements which reflect low density housing could be the next step, but will require a the realities of a much larger and more complex urban further shift in community attitudes. form.

11 Employment patterns Other demographic challenges - the ageing population In addition to the need to provide sufficient housing for the increasing population, new employment opportunities in The largest age group within South East Queensland is 20-24 appropriate locations are also essential. It is expected that years of age, much younger than both Sydney and Melbourne, around 425,000 new jobs will be needed in South East where the largest age groups are 30-34 years and 35-39 Queensland by 202627. Approximately 50 per cent of these years respectively. This difference is in large part due to an jobs will be created in the inner city area, taking the total share influx of young singles and couples moving to South East of employment in these suburbs to nearly 43 per cent28. New Queensland from southern states. Despite this, in coming transport infrastructure will be needed to accommodate extra decades the percentage of older residents living in the region commuters travelling into the city centre. will increase31.

While 50 per cent of Brisbane’s population will live in outer Just like other states, the region will need to grapple suburbs by 2016, surrounding areas such as Logan, Ipswich with issues resulting from an ageing population. It will be and Beaudesert can expect a 35 per cent increase in current important to understand how the travel behaviour of an ageing employment levels29. The city centre will remain a primary population could affect congestion in the region. It is expected employment location for new residents living in these outer that given a greater degree of mobility among baby boomers, suburbs. an ageing population will not necessarily translate into a decreased overall demand for car travel. Some commentators have suggested that the ageing population could result in a greater demand for private vehicle travel, resulting in an Population and employment growth is increase in the spread of traffic demand across the day32. This expected to generate an extra 250,000 may create additional challenges for policy makers. daily trips into the CBD by 2026

The freight task

At present these outer areas are not well connected with An important part of the freight task in South East Queensland pubic transport. This new growth may therefore increase car is centred on the Australia Trade Coast (ATC). This 8,000 hectare dependency and exacerbate congestion. These patterns of area on both the northern and southern sides of the Brisbane population and employment growth are expected to result River is home to the Port of Brisbane, and over in an extra 250,000 return trips into the city everyday by 7,500 businesses33 from a range of sectors. Two intermodal 202630. Further enhancements to the region’s public transport terminals (road/rail interchanges) are currently located in system will be important to maintain its present mode Brisbane, one at the port and the other at Acacia Ridge. share, especially given the current level of public transport provision in outer urban areas earmarked for future growth. The Port of Brisbane is the fastest growing port in Australia Improvements in road infrastructure will be vital, but changes having undergone 14 years of consecutive record growth34. to land-use patterns may also be needed. With a total containerised trade of nearly 943,000 TEUs35, this volume is expected to increase by 7.4 per cent per annum until A number of local councils within the region are considering 2025, well above the national forecast of 5.4 per cent36. Trade ways to boost local employment to reduce levels of from the port represents the majority of the freight task from commuting into the CBD and reduce average trip lengths. the ATC. Employment decentralisation is an effective way of managing transport and reducing congestion, but its success may Growth in urban freight will also have a major impact on the depend on integrated transport and land-use planning. Put region’s transport system. While the port area is serviced by simply, if new employment zones are poorly connected to the road and rail infrastructure, 90 per cent of freight movements transport system, then they are unlikely to be attractive places within Brisbane are road based37. Between 2003 and 2020, for business investment. the road freight task in Brisbane is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.7 per cent, compared to the 3 per cent growth expected in both Sydney and Melbourne38. Total road freight

12 is expected to double in Brisbane between 2006 and 2026, expected to increase by around 90 per cent for Australia as largely through pickup and delivery of goods within Brisbane a whole and 97 per cent for Brisbane40. The effects of this rather than long haul freight39. The effects of freight growth are growth are most likely to be felt in the Brisbane CBD and other most likely to be felt most in the urban area and could add to business areas within South East Queensland. congestion problems.

Car dependency and public transport The total road freight task in Brisbane is expected to double between 2006 Across South East Queensland, as in most of Australia, the car and 2026 will continue to the majority of the transport task for the foreseeable future. While the mobility benefits offered by private motor vehicles make them the dominant transport mode in all Australian cities, Brisbane and its surrounding suburbs appear to be particularly dependent on the car: In coming years service sector transport (mainly involving the use of light commercial vehicles) is also expected to grow • Private vehicles account for 77 per cent of vehicle kilometres significantly. From 2005 to 2020, service sector transport is on urban roads in Brisbane41;

13 • Car use in South East Queensland is growing at a rate faster The CityTrain service provides the primary mass transit links than population growth42; between these growing population centres and Brisbane’s employment centres. Over the past ten years patronage on the • An additional 200,000 cars are expected to be owned by network has grown from 40 million to over 60 million48. residents of Brisbane alone, by 202643. This does not include the greater number of cars that will be travelling to Brisbane The Gold Coast represents a significant employment centre in from surrounding local government areas, and its own right accounting for 20 per cent of employment in South East Queensland. The region is also projected to experience • Vehicle kilometres travelled (vkt) in Brisbane are expected to strong population growth, and will grow by over two per cent grow by 43.2 per cent between 2005 and 2020, compared to per annum to 2011, an increase of over half a million people49. 35 per cent for Sydney and 30.3 per cent for Melbourne44. While no general commuter mode share data is available for the region, the Gold Coast region is characterised by heavy reliance on private vehicles.

Given the population growth The three stage extension of the estimates, the number of kilometres from Robina to Varsity Lakes, Elanora and finally Coolangatta is expected to deliver strong growth in rail patronage. In 2011, the travelled by road are likely to increase extension of the network is expected to reduce car travel on the markedly even in the event of a parallel road network by 7,000 trips per day. This is equivalent doubling in the growth rates of public to nine per cent of the forecast traffic volume on the Pacific 50 transport. Motorway south of Robina in that year . The key message is that, while public transport plays an essential role in South East Queensland, it should not be assumed that its share of the overall transport task will increase Despite the underlying demand for use of the motor vehicle, automatically in coming years. Given the substantial increases public transport will play an essential role in accommodating in population growth expected in the region - and perhaps more new growth - but it is important that its role in the overall importantly - the location of this growth, major enhancements transport task is kept in perspective. Over the past 30 years to the public transport system will continue to be needed just the share of public transport in Brisbane decreased steadily to maintain its present mode share, and to meet the needs of from a 1976 level of 11 per cent to a 2004 level of 8 per cent45. CBD commuters in future. Given the substantial population Since 2004 this figure has increased to 9.6 per cent46. This trend growth estimates for the region, the number of kilometres is most likely set to continue over the medium term due to a travelled by road are likely to increase markedly even in the range of factors, such as the establishment of the TransLink event of a doubling in the growth rates of public transport. Transit Authority, increased bus service frequency and routes, the introduction of the ticketing system and rises in fuel prices. However, this may be offset somewhat by a potential reduction in discretionary travel due to the impact of the global Physical limitations of the financial crisis. transportation network

Brisbane City Council has set a target to increase public Historically, transport infrastructure planning and delivery in transport mode share to 13 per cent by 202647. Further system Brisbane has been relatively slow to react to changing growth improvements and infrastructure developments such as the patterns. Consequently the development of new or additional Gold Coast Light Rail project, extensions of the rail system capacity has not been fully aligned with the growing demand and busway networks, and increasing inner city rail capacity on transport services and road space. This has resulted in a in Brisbane, will all be vital to achieving this increased public road network with increasing congestion and necessitated the transport mode share. delivery of large infrastructure projects over a short period of time to address network shortages. The CityTrain network also provides important public transport links beyond the urban Brisbane corridor, servicing regional centres including Ipswich, the Gold Coast and Caboolture.

14 The cost of congestion The South East Queensland Infrastructure Plan and Program Unless steps can be taken to address the growth challenge (SEQIPP) identifies a number of discussed in this paper, these individual issues will coalesce to create gridlock within central Brisbane and along the fundamental limitations of the major corridors connecting the city with growth centres on transport network, including: the Sunshine and Gold Coasts, as well as an increasingly important Ipswich region. - Lack of inner city rail capacity and other high capacity public transport The impacts of congestion are known. In 2005, the Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics (then the Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics) estimated - Lack of cross river routes bypassing that urban congestion from capital cities cost the CBD economy a total of $9.4 billion every year54. Brisbane made up 12.8 per cent of this figure at $1.2 billion55. - An inadequate arterial road system By 2020, the overall cost to the Australian economy is - A discontinuous motorway system expected to be $20.4 billion, with the cost in Brisbane more than double the 2005 figure at $3 billion56. This will increase Brisbane’s share of congestion costs to 14.7 per cent of the national total, while accounting for only nine per cent of the national population. This increase is the largest among all One of the main deficiencies of the Brisbane road network is capital cities and therefore the greatest in the nation57. As a lack of cross-river routes that bypass the CBD, as well as an discussed in the following sections, these costs may be even inadequate arterial road system51. It is estimated that 43 per higher in the long term given population growth predictions. cent of vehicles travelling through the CBD do not need to travel this route but are forced to do so due to the lack of any viable alternatives52.

Other issues with the road network include a discontinuous motorway system caused by low quality arterials and traffic routes that are poorly designed and difficult to navigate, roads that funnel traffic through local centres and networks that inhibit the movement of public transport53. In particular the capability of the current heavy rail network to service the inner city is limited due to the capacity of existing lines and shortage of river crossings. Services to rapidly growing areas such as the Gold Coast, Ipswich, Cleveland, Caboolture and the Sunshine Coast are directly impacted by these limitations.

As the volume of both road freight and private vehicles increase, these deficiencies are likely to increase demand for existing road space and cause greater levels of congestion unless action is taken.

15 The response so far

The infrastructure response and western parts of Brisbane and the wider region. A number of future road projects will link into this bypass and further The last 10 years has seen the delivery of some major transport develop the foundations of a strategic motorway network in the infrastructure projects in Brisbane and the surrounding region. region. Other important links in the motorway network have also The and Inner Northern Busway are widely been upgraded, including the Pacific and Bruce Highways and regarded as success stories and have improved the reach of Centenary/Ipswich, Logan and Sunshine Motorways. Outside of Brisbane’s public transport network. The Brisbane, the Tugun Bypass has been constructed on the Gold was the first bridge designed in Australia for buses, cyclists and Coast to ease traffic on the . pedestrians only, while the is another cross-river bridge designed only for cyclists and pedestrians. An unprecedented amount of construction associated with transport infrastructure is currently being undertaken in Brisbane. The Inner City Bypass has provided an effective link for both A sample of major infrastructure projects is shown in the table freight and private motorists travelling between the northern below.

Table 2 Selection of major projects currently under construction in South East Queensland

Network limitation being Project Description Expected completion addressed

Gateway Bridge Upgrade & Duplication of current Gateway Bridge and additional Lack of cross river routes 2 011 Duplication connections at northern and southern ends of the bridge

Clem Jones (Clem 7) Tunnel Cross river tunnel from Woolloongabba to Bowen Hills A lack of cross river routes 2010 (part of TransApex) and a discontinuous motorway system

Airport Link with the Airport Predominantly underground link connecting Clem A discontinuous motorway Airport Link 2012 and Roundabout Upgrade and Jones Bypass Tunnel and Inner City Bypass with system Northern Busway the first stage of the Northern northern arterial roads and airport (part of TransApex) 2012 Busway

Tank Street Pedestrian/Cycle Dedicated pedestrian/cycle bridge designed to Lack of cross river routes 2009 Bridge complement and complete the city pedestrian and bicycle loop with the Goodwill Bridge

Hale Street Link Cross river bridge from South Brisbane to Milton (part Lack of cross river routes 2010 of TransApex)

Boggo Road Busway Dedicated bus link from PA Hospital to Eleanor Lack of inner city rail capacity 2009 Schonell Bridge, will form part of the proposed Eastern and other high capacity Busway public transport

Ipswich Motorway upgrades Various road and intersection upgrades along Ipswich A discontinuous motorway Logan interchange from Wacol to Darra and the Motorway (only Stage 1 under construction) system 2009 and Ipswich interchange Motorway (Stage 1) between Goodna and Gailes 2010

Darra to Ipswich Transport Various road and intersection upgrades along An inadequate arterial road Stage 1 2011 Corridor Centenary Highway along with rail link to Springfield system (only Stage 1 under construction)

Houghton Highway Bridge Duplication of bridge to Redcliffe An inadequate arterial road 2 011 system

Gold Coast Highway Upgrade Various road and intersection upgrades An inadequate arterial road Stage 2 2009 and system Stage 3 2011

Other motorway/highway A number of other upgrades are taking place on A discontinuous motorway Various upgrades various motorways and highways in the South East system region

16 On their own, the projects in the table represent an planning and delivering infrastructure compared to Sydney or investment of over $18 billion in transport infrastructure58. The Melbourne. Ipswich and Logan Motorway interchange between Goodna and Gailes and the Tank St pedestrian/cycle bridge are due to come online this year with the remaining projects reaching completion over the next 3-4 years. Work on a number of The unique governance arrangements extensions to these current projects is also planned during this in South East Queensland have been time. instrumental in helping deliver recent

The construction of these projects will go a long way towards transport projects addressing key strategic transport issues within Brisbane and South East Queensland more generally. A number of these projects will establish cross-city travel routes that bypass the city centre, while others will provide arterial connections and Brisbane has benefited substantially from coordinated long- deal with other bottlenecks in the network. term infrastructure investment strategies. In 2005, the State Government introduced SEQIPP as a means of implementing The next significant project which will address urban the SEQRP. Since then, SEQIPP has become widely accepted congestion is the Northern Link project, planned by Brisbane as an effective means of managing infrastructure prioritisation City Council. The importance of this project to the Queensland in the region. Annual revisions of the plan have seen it become and national economies is clearly highlighted by its inclusion increasingly integrated into State Government processes, in Infrastructure Australia’s National Priority List. The Northern including State Budget planning. Link will deliver a critical city bypass for traffic from Brisbane’s west. The current Western Corridor, the Centenary Highway, is already heavily congested with traffic demand forecast to grow substantially in the coming decade. The role of local government

Each of these projects will therefore play a key role in In recent years, several large scale projects under construction mitigating congestion over the medium term. While SEQIPP in South East Queensland have been actively supported appears highly ambitious, it needs to be viewed in the context by local governments and the State, notably Airport Link of population growth and other challenges facing the region. and the Northern Busway. Both levels of government have In this regard, delivery of the pipeline of projects in SEQIPP demonstrated their capacity to independently deliver significant may be needed just to maintain the status quo with regard to projects, at times through partnering with the private sector. The congestion. support of multiple tiers of government has played an important role in ensuring the provision of new supporting assets and It is expected that an even more coordinated approach better integration with existing infrastructure. to planning and implementing infrastructure and non- infrastructure solutions will be needed in the longer term to Brisbane City Council has played a key role in infrastructure make real inroads into urban congestion and the ‘shape’ of the delivery in the metropolitan area. In comparison with Sydney urban form in South East Queensland. where there are over 40 councils in the greater metropolitan area59, Brisbane City Council governs a large majority of the Brisbane metropolitan area, making it the largest local government in Australia. The Council is also responsible for Coordinated decision making delivering transport services and is the second largest bus operator in Australia. The Council plans to purchase 500 new The unique governance arrangements in South East buses between 2008-12. These factors give the Council a Queensland have been instrumental in helping deliver recent unique opportunity to interact with the State Government and transport projects. The combination of an empowered state act as a major player in infrastructure delivery. infrastructure entity (the Coordinator General), a large, centrally located local government entity (Brisbane City The majority of Brisbane City Council’s infrastructure delivery Council) and now consolidated local government areas across is centred on the TransApex plan, a long term project designed South East Queensland provides a very different approach to to address cross city travel limitations. Projects within the plan

17 currently under construction include the Clem Jones (Clem 7) All nine South East Queensland transport projects submitted Tunnel, Airport Link and the Hale St Bridge. Northern Link is also by the State Government to Infrastructure Australia have been part of TransApex. Brisbane City Council is actively progressing included in the initial National Infrastructure Priority List of 94 Northern Link and is aiming to deliver the project in advance projects. Four projects submitted by Brisbane City Council were of its planned 2016 opening date. The Council is also making also included on the initial shortlist. From this first list, a total improvements to existing roads and congestion hotspots of seven South East Queensland transport projects have been through its $1.2 billion Road Action Program, and investing $100 selected for the final priority list (see below). million in new bikeways.

The other councils in South East Queensland have played Table 3 South East Queensland transport projects identified as priorities by Infrastructure Australia varying roles to date in the delivery of infrastructure. It Source: Infrastructure Australia 200960 is anticipated that as the population continues to spread throughout South East Queensland these councils will be Priority Projects/ Priority Infrastructure Pipeline projects required to play a greater role in infrastructure delivery similar to Actions ready to with real potential that currently played by Brisbane City Council. proceed • Ipswich • Northern Link Road Tunnel (BCC) The involvement of local government in delivering infrastructure Motorway • Port of Brisbane Motorway (QLD) in South East Queensland provides a contrast to other states. Upgrade • Eastern Busway (Stage 2 & 3) (QLD) Infrastructure development in Sydney and Melbourne has been (Dinmore to • Brisbane’s Future Public Transport inhibited by limited capacity within local government to execute Goodna) (QLD) Network (including Brisbane inner city substantial infrastructure investment. The City of Sydney’s • Gold Coast Light rail capacity) (QLD) Sustainable Sydney 2030 Plan provides a strong foundation for Rail (QLD) Corridor (Cooroy to Curra) (QLD)* infrastructure development within the city. However, the ability of the City of Sydney to deliver the plan’s vision on its own is *The Commonwealth Government has funded this project through the Nation Building Programme (Formerly known as Auslink) severely inhibited by its relatively small financial and geographic scale.

Funding from Infrastructure Australia TransLink Transit Authority will be important, but will only cover part of the cost of delivering The establishment of the TransLink Transit Authority by the State Government has played an important role in coordinating infrastructure improvements in South public transport and significantly increasing patronage in the East Queensland region. TransLink now provides a one-stop-shop for all trains, buses and ferries in South East Queensland. TransLink has been responsible for the recent the rollout of the go card integrated ticketing system. Infrastructure Australia funding provides a valuable opportunity to bring forward the timing of some projects identified in the priority pipeline. However, the value of this funding must be kept in perspective. South East Queensland projects on the Infrastructure Australia list represent a total capital cost in excess of $25 billion61. However, the total value of funds available for distribution The establishment of Infrastructure Australia and the Building in the first tranche of the Building Australia Fund total only Australia Fund will be crucial for future infrastructure funding. $12.6 billion62, and this includes $4.9 billion ear-marked for the The Infrastructure Australia funding process is extremely National Broadband Scheme. valuable as for the first time it provides a national scale funding program based on arms-length analysis of project value derived While the move by the Australian Government to establish from cost/benefit analysis. Infrastructure Australia should be commended and will play an important role in helping deliver infrastructure to the region,

18 the committed funding alone will not be adequate to meet • Public transport projects the demand for additional funding to facilitate new projects. For instance, a number of major SEQIPP projects designed to - Eastern Busway (Stages 2 and 3) target urban congestion and accommodate population growth - the Inner Brisbane Rail Capacity Upgrade do not have confirmed funding allocations. Vital projects - Coolangatta Rail Extension without funding commitments include: - gold Coast Rapid Transit (Stage 2) - darra to Ipswich Transport Corridor (Stage 2) • Road and motorway projects

- Northern Link To minimise the costs of congestion and ensure transport - gateway Motorway South system productivity, it will be vital to secure new sources of - Port of Brisbane Motorway Upgrade funding that can be used to bring forward these projects. - Ipswich Motorway (Darra to Rocklea) - Centenary Highway upgrade and extension - including Darra to Ipswich Transport Corridor (Stage 2)

19 What next?

The future transport challenge Figure 3 Annual congestion costs over time

The emerging challenges facing South East Queensland in the 10 years ahead are clear: 9 8 • Significant population growth 7 6 5 • Majority of population growth occurring in outer suburbs 4 3 • Majority of employment growth occurring in inner city areas 2 1

Annual congestion costs $ (billion) 0 • Medium term dependence on motor vehicles for travel 2046 2050 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2054 2042 2038 • Increasing costs of congestion Year

By 2056, congestion costs in Brisbane As part of this ongoing commitment it is essential that a could be as high as $6 billion to $9 concerted effort is made to see through the delivery of major billion per annum if improvements to projects specified in SEQIPP. This will form a major part of the response, but the plan also needs to be reviewed on a regular the transport system are not delivered– basis to ensure that the current recommended projects are two to three times higher than cost still those best able to meet the needs of residents in South predictions for 2020. These costs are for East Queensland. This is particularly important in relation to Brisbane alone and may be higher if emerging growth areas.

congestion for the whole of South East It is important to think beyond the current program to the Queensland is taken into account. future. The following sections discuss some immediate challenges to delivering on SEQIPP and issues which may need to be considered beyond the delivery of these important infrastructure projects. In 2009, a ‘do-nothing’ approach to congestion in Brisbane is expected to cost the economy nearly $1.6 billion63. By 2055, this cost is likely to be substantially higher. Depending on The global financial crisis how costs are projected, our analysis suggests that by 2056, congestion costs in Brisbane could be as high as $6 billion to The global financial crisis poses a real challenge to the $9 billion per annum if improvements to the transport system development of new infrastructure in South East Queensland. are not delivered64. Figure 3 shows how congestion costs Since SEQIPP was first developed in 2005, the global could increase over time based on an upper limit of $9 billion economy has moved from boom to a financial crisis, and it is per annum by 2055 – two to three times higher than the cost possible that 2009 could be the weakest year for the global predictions for 2020. economy in the post-war period65.

It is important to recognise that these are not just one off The State Government has been directly affected by the global costs to the economy, but are incurred every year. And financial crisis with ratings agencies downgrading the State’s these costs are for Brisbane alone - there is potential for this credit rating from AAA to AA+. The Queensland Treasurer, cost to be higher if congestion for the whole of South East the Hon Andrew Fraser MP, has publicly estimated that the Queensland is taken into account. impacts of this re-evaluation would lead to the state being liable for approximately $200 million in additional interest payments during 2008-0966.

20 Overall, the financial crisis is a concern for the SEQIPP project Case study 2: pipeline, as it is for most other parts of the economy and Is everything covered by the plan? community. However, its ramifications need to be considered in context. The SEQIPP project pipeline represents a 20-25 year commitment to develop infrastructure that will underpin The draft 2009 South East Queensland Regional Plan has identified the Western Corridor region towards Ipswich as future growth in the region. The benefits of the investment will the next major growth area for the region. A 210 per cent be experienced over more than just one economic cycle, and increase in households in the Ipswich area is forecast it is therefore important that SEQIPP is not beholden to the between 2006 and 2031*. Will the projects identified fluctuations within a single cycle. in SEQIPP meet the transport needs of this emerging region? Significant improvements are now being made Despite the advent of the global financial crisis, the drivers of to the Ipswich Motorway to improve journey times to demand for investment in South East Queensland’s transport Brisbane CBD, but are unlikely to be enough. A major infrastructure have not diminished. It is therefore imperative orbital route on the western side of the region, linking to that governments are able to both respond to the crisis and to the north and south west, may be needed if population renew their commitment to programs like SEQIPP. growth occurs as expected.

In order to ensure the development of this corridor can Implications for South East Queensland take place, it is necessary to act now to preserve the land critical to its development. The preservation of corridors It is essential that the State Government takes concerted for transport projects is an important step to ensuring action to address these ramifications and to support planned their cost effective delivery. The identification and SEQIPP project sequencing in the short term. However, with protection of corridors does not eliminate opportunities private companies finding it increasingly difficult to obtain for other uses of the land if circumstances change in the financial backing for projects, the future of this approach, in future; for instance, road corridors have been used for the short term at least, is uncertain. industrial uses, transport terminals and green spaces. Governments from across Australia are beginning to respond SEQIPP is focused on major infrastructure developments, to the new reality of tightening of credit markets. The but there are many other smaller transport projects which Commonwealth guarantee over state borrowings provides a are important. Not all residents living in the area will significant boost to the capabilities of states to deliver major commute into the CBD for work. Adequate cross city 67 routes and public transport connecting more localised projects . growth centres together (e.g. Ipswich to Springfield) will also be important. Early development of both road and To support private investment in South East Queensland, public transport infrastructure can help planners manage including through public-private partnership (PPP) land-use and employment patterns, and the transport arrangements, it will be necessary for the State Government, task. and potentially Brisbane City Council, to take steps to improve access to debt funding. These issues highlight the need for a strong vision and the importance of making decisions about future One model may involve state governments entering into a transport needs at an early stage of population growth (if co-lending model to meet short term challenges for private only to keep future development options open). Flexibility sector debt. This co-investment should be on commercial is also important. While significant population growth is terms, reverting to a pure PPP model over time. In this expected for the Western Corridor, what happens if this regard, the Queensland Government supported debt model does not eventuate as expected? What happens if growth and the Victorian Government’s Wonthaggi desalination plant in the west is eclipsed by continued strong growth in guarantee model, both provide reduced long-term funding coastal areas such as the lower Sunshine Coast and the requirements on PPP projects. Gold Coast? Revisiting plans on a regular basis provides the opportunity to deal with changes in growth trends. In the current financial climate, new funding arrangements * “Estimate derived from SEQRP, 2009, 87 may need to be considered to help deliver existing project commitments. For instance, governments may be required to ‘buy in’ to traffic forecasts through the life of the project, as in

21 Victorian Peninsula Link project, or at least by sharing a level of However, is it appropriate or realistic to think even longer patronage risk in the early stages of certain projects. term? What benefits can be derived through taking longer term perspective? On 31 March 2009, the Victorian Government announced the procurement of Australia’s first road PPP funded under A review of selected infrastructure planning documents an availability-based model, the Peninsula Link68. Under from cities around Australia and in other countries, suggests this model, the Victorian Government will make periodic that it is unusual to plan much beyond a 30 year outlook69. payments to a private operator based on the achievement There are however, notable examples to the contrary. For of key performance indicators, similar to a typical social instance the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority infrastructure PPP. This demonstrates a commitment to the (NYMTA) has begun examining longer time frames including whole-of-life focus and financial and scheduling performance in Planning Ahead: The Next 40 Years, as has the State of which can be delivered by the private sector. The application Florida Department of Transport in Regional Visions: 50 year of the availability model (which has been used successfully on Transportation Demand Modelling project. international road projects and for Australian hospitals, schools and other social infrastructure) to domestic roads appears to The main impediment to long term transport and infrastructure be a prudent and logical approach to dealing with some of the planning is their dependence on growth in economic challenges raised by the global financial crisis. prosperity and population. Given the uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts, devising very long term (i.e. beyond 50 While the financial crisis has created financial uncertainty, years) transport infrastructure response is thought to be too including for the infrastructure pipeline, the news may not all speculative to support expensive investment decisions. be negative. Before the crisis, the buoyant economy created a skills shortage for design and construction developments. While it may be difficult to develop firm long term plans, this The cost of construction materials also escalated rapidly as does not infer that planning horizons of 50 years should not a result. Anecdotally, skill shortages appear to be less of be considered. The State Government is now considering long a problem compared with 12 months ago, and the cost of term scenarios to identify future corridors and other features certain construction materials may have also softened to an of the road and transport networks that may be required extent. regardless of which particular scenarios might play out.

Two of the most recent long term scenario studies are the Western Brisbane Transport Network Investigation and In the current financial climate, new the Mt Lindesay Beaudesert Strategic Transport Network Investigation. Released in 2006, the Mt Lindesay Beaudesert funding arrangements will need Study considered a 50-60 year timeframe for the area. The to be considered to deliver project Western Brisbane Study is currently being undertaken, commitments considering an area west of the Brisbane CBD from Ipswich in the south to Caboolture in the north. This study is seeking to determine public transport and road infrastructure needs up to and beyond the next 25 years.

Thinking longer term While these studies are all steps in the right direction, there does not appear to be any integrated long term scenario The SEQRP and SEQIPP introduced a 20-25 year transport analysis covering all forms of urban growth and transport planning horizon for the region. Most jurisdictions within infrastructure in Brisbane or South East Queensland as a Australia and around the world now undertake planning over whole for the next 50 years. similar time horizons. This strategic outlook has been shown to provide an important perspective on future growth, allowing The Queensland Water Commission (QWC) provides an the necessary supplementary planning to be undertaken and example of how long term planning processes can now be providing signals to industry highlighting the planned project conducted. The QWC released a draft strategy in March 2008 pipeline. planning water supplies in South East Queensland for the next 50 years.

22 To ensure short to medium term planning requirements are not Case study 3: neglected, the strategy is supplemented with 10-year resource Long term planning was done in plans for each major catchment area in the region. These plans the past…can it be done in the are coordinated by the Department of Natural Resources and Water which conducts annual reporting on the performance of future? each catchment area.

The County of Cumberland Plan, released in 1951, set Predicting future water requirements is very similar to transport out a long term vision for transport corridors and future - both are a derived demand. Forecasts rely on predictions of land-use patterns in Sydney. Though not all aspects of population and economic growth. While planning long term this plan were realised, it was responsible for the setting transport requirements may rely on more detailed predictions aside of transport corridors, resulting in the completion than those for water, the process undertaken to conduct the of the orbital motorway network 60 years on. 50 year water strategy has merit and should be considered in future by transport planners. Long term planning is particularly A decade after the Cumberland Plan was released, important for ensuring that appropriate transport corridors can Brisbane underwent a similar planning process with the Wilbur Smith Plan in 1965. While this plan probably be preserved, because once they are lost they are very difficult did not have the same long term effect on the future of to regain. This does not necessarily prevent corridors being Brisbane as the Cumberland Plan did for Sydney, it still released in the future for other purposes. Long term plans are played a significant role - corridors identified by Wilbur useful for providing a clear vision for the future, but should be Smith are still evident within Brisbane today while flexible and revisited on a regular basis to ensure they are still certain pockets of land set aside in the plan for future relevant. corridors are still within State Government possession.

Though not all population and housing forecasts came to fruition, these plans played a significant part in providing A joined up approach to future growth directions that shaped each city’s future. planning?

These plans provided a starting point for future In terms of transport planning and delivery, the primary concern planning; they did not require that all recommendations for residents of South East Queensland is that a transport were acted upon (for example the Wilbur Smith Plan network exists to allow them to get to where they want to go recommended the closure of the majority of suburban in the most efficient way possible. The majority of residents railway lines) but they gave the region a direction and a would have very little preference as to who plans, finances and basis from which debate and future planning could be constructs their road network, as long as the network exists conducted. and meets their needs. The role for government must therefore be to ensure the adoption of the most efficient strategy to Consider recent discussion about Brisbane as a potential deliver optimal service outcomes for commuters and freight city to host an Olympic Games over the next 20-30 service users. years*. Without substantial planning and considerations over those time horizons, cities are significantly As previously discussed, transport planning in South East challenged in delivering such an event. Few would argue Queensland is predominantly conducted by the State that Brisbane and South East Queensland are not well Government through the Department of Transport and Main suited to hosting an Olympics given the region’s climate, lifestyle and growing international status. The argument Roads and other relevant agencies, and Brisbane City Council. is therefore strengthened for very long term planning for Both levels of government incorporate substantial infrastructure major events and day to day living. and planning capabilities. Although these two levels of government share forecast data and operate with a certain * “Government backs AOC plan for Brisbane” The Australian, August 05, 2008 http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/beijing_olympics/ degree of coordination, they both release separate planning story/0,27313,24130588-5014197,00.html (Accessed 14 July 2009) documents for transport. Other councils in the region also release transport planning documents in one form or another and the Commonwealth manages the national road network as well as determining national infrastructure priorities.

23 It is widely accepted that the unique governance the old approach of focusing on one-dimensional solutions arrangements in South East Queensland have enabled an and instead look at the contribution that all modes of transport effective response to recent transport challenges. However, is and traffic management might make - including road, rail, bus the current approach the right model for the future? Is there and light rail, as well as walking and cycling.’ The intermodal scope for better coordination of decision making and will this studies took place in three tranches examining key focus produce better outcomes? areas including Major Corridors, Orbital and Areas as well as Other Priority Corridors. The outcome of these regional Thought should to be given about whether the interaction studies then formed the basis for longer-term transport of three levels of government, as well as multiple local planning documents, Regional Transport Strategies, to ‘ensure governments, each releasing their own planning documents is that major transport investment is properly co-ordinated the process most likely to produce the best transport outcome across transport modes and reflects wider land-use planning for the region. For example, could transport planning be better considerations, including major new housing development.’ served through the formation of a single, overarching transport and road planning authority for the region, similar to the reform that has occurred with water? Should there be a single Massachusetts Surface Transportation Authority authority for all modes of transport? The newly created Massachusetts Surface Transportation Authority (MSTA) brings together planning and operations The example of QWC provides an illustration of how an disciplines to deliver a multi-focus, multi-modal approach to overseeing body can successfully take a ‘whole of region’ transport management. The agencies provide planning and view to planning and provide a coordinated response beyond operational oversight to public transport and major roads and what individual councils and individual agencies within the bridges within their respective region. State Government may be able to achieve. The MSTA also presents an innovative governance platform The TransLink Transit Authority also provides an integrated bringing together expertise from various professions in order oversight role for public transport within South East to ensure the consideration of broad policy outcomes in Queensland. The body has been successful in achieving a the compilation of a single regional vision. The MSTA Board much higher degree of coordination than individual authorities will consist of a diverse range of stakeholders including the and operators, as evidenced by significant patronage uplift and secretary of transportation, the secretary of administration the delivery of the go card integrated ticketing system. and finance, state transit authorities, a construction expert and a representative of an environmental organisation71.

Models for integrated transport planning The MSTA will also introduce an innovative strategy to finance transport operations. The strategy will enable the ‘pooling Centralised transport and land-use planning offers the potential of revenues’, removing the need for individual facilities to to significantly reduce the costs to society associated with operate under a self-financing model, thereby removing cost transport including inefficiencies and environmental impacts. limitations that can impact the development and delivery of Joined up policy making and planning which deals with the new infrastructure assets and public transport. transport network as a whole, rather than individual modes, can result in optimal network operation and better outcomes for all network users. Numerous jurisdictions within the United Dubai Roads and Transport Authority States and Europe, as well as fast growing regions such as The Government of Dubai is also pursuing a similar approach Dubai, have adopted centralised, integrated transport planning. to integrated transport planning through the Roads and Transport Authority (RTA). The Dubai RTA is responsible for cross-modal planning as well as the delivery and operation The United Kingdom’s Department for Transport of road and public transport infrastructure. The RTA is widely The United Kingdom’s Department for Transport Transport Ten considered to have responded effectively to Dubai’s rapidly Year Plan 2000 committed to a series of ‘multi-modal studies’ changing land-use patterns. It has been projected that over to examine the role played by various transport modes in the period to 2020, 2,000 square kilometres of new residential delivering urban mobility70. The studies undertook to ‘…reject and commercial development will occur in the Emirate. In

24 support of this development the RTA will deliver a US$22 A model for closer collaboration in South East billion integrated transport policy including commitments to Queensland 500 kilometres of new roads, 96 new intersections, nine new ring roads, 1300 new buses, 800 new bus stops, two new rail Despite the relative success of the current planning and lines (red and green) and a new metro system72. governance structure, there is a substantial opportunity for further collaboration between all levels governments in the Southern California Association of Governments planning of future transport infrastructure within South East Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Queensland. has developed a shorter term, but well integrated, plan for six counties in the region. The Southern California Compass provides a basis on which governments within the region can develop land-use planning and identify necessary social Despite the success of current and economic infrastructure development in support of these arrangements, there is an opportunity plans. The strategy is based on the achievement of four key for further collaboration in the planning principles (mobility, liveability, prosperity and sustainability), and was compiled over a four year period. Central to the of future transport infrastructure development of the plan was the examination of emerging growth trends to the effects of different growth patterns on transportation systems, land consumption and other factors73 such as: As previously outlined, the unique political system within Queensland characterised by large, relatively well-resourced • Demand drivers: i.e. projected demand for additional land councils, has been successful in planning and delivering a and employment characteristics and patterns number of major infrastructure projects. Currently, Brisbane City Council is playing a significant role in the delivery of four • Objectives: i.e. target congestion and pollution levels major transport projects (each worth over $50 million): Airport Link, , Eleanor Schonell Bridge and Hale • Community feedback: i.e. preferred transport modes and Street Link, with the Northern Link Project also in planning. land-use patterns Despite the substantial capacity of each level of government The feedback relating to these areas has led to a number to develop projects in their own right, there is little obligation of enhancements to the transport and infrastructure policy for governments to work together to develop transport development process, such as combining land-use and infrastructure projects, and network enhancements, within an transportation strategies, rather than holding land-use agreed timeframe. constant and changing transportation investments on a case- by-case basis. Another key weakness of the current governance arrangement has been the incapacity or reluctance of other councils to undertake the scale of project brought forward by Brisbane Options for South East Queensland City Council. Despite the location of three of Australia’s largest On 26 March 2009, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh local governments in the region, the development of the announced a series of reforms to restructure 23 separate $950 million Gold Coast Light Rail Project, to which the Gold government departments into 13 new departments, grouped Coast Council will contribute $150 million, represents the around six ‘clusters’. The changes are intended to streamline most substantial contribution of local government to transport government functions and improve the provision of services74 . infrastructure, aside from those of Brisbane City Council. As part of this process, Queensland Transport and Main Roads have been combined into a single agency. The Department To strengthen the cooperation between all levels of of Infrastructure and Planning and Department of Local government actively engaged in the development of major Government have also been merged through the reforms. transport infrastructure within the region, it is suggested that a The announcement is a positive step towards more integrated single body be established by the State Government, bringing decision making in transport and land-use policy making. together representatives of transport and infrastructure However, further steps may be required to strengthen the agencies from the State, Commonwealth and local planning process. governments.

25 The body would provide a formalised structure to improve Table 4 Constituent agencies for single planning body governance and planning through: Government Representative Agency Jurisdiction • the creation of a single, unified transport infrastructure plan for the South East Queensland region; Commonwealth • Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Government Regional Development and Local • a structure for the assessment of joint project funding by Government • Infrastructure Australia/Major Cities Unit government to reduce cost shifting; State Government • Department of Infrastructure and • integrated planning across different modes of transport; Planning • Department of Transport and Main Roads • development of a forum for consultation on network • Queensland Motorways Limited impacts of road toll price variations; • Translink Transit Authority Local Government • Brisbane City Council • supporting the interaction of land-use and transport • Gold Coast City Council planning, and; • Ipswich City Council •  Council • Moreton Bay Regional Council • establishing a model framework to ensure engagement of •  Council the Commonwealth Government in urban planning.

26 Figure 4 Locations of South East Queensland Councils The planned sale of state owned transport assets means that the private sector should also be involved in infrastructure planning

Sunshine Coast Regional Council To ensure long-term certainty, this new body should be provided with statutory powers through State Government legislation – similar to the Translink Transit Authority. Summerset Moreton Bay Regional Council Regional Council Putting the building blocks in place

Brisbane Lockyer Vallley City Council Redland As previously discussed, the global financial crisis threatens Regional Council City Council Ipswich the ability of both governments and the private sector to City Council Logan City Council deliver new transport infrastructure. This challenging financial environment means that it is more important than ever for Gold Coast governments to look closely at underlying drivers of long-term Scenic Rim City planning and ensure that investment strategies align with Regional Council Council those projects that can provide the best outcomes.

The Infrastructure Australia prioritisation process provides a useful framework for governments to reflect on the investment prioritisation process. Appropriate project sequencing is also important for ensuring resource availability Each existing agency and level of government would remain and value-for-money outcomes. responsible for the development of jurisdiction-specific transport plans; however, the new body would provide a framework for enabling their integration into a single major project pipeline. The current SEQIPP document provides a An economic downturn may be the best similar role for the sector-specific infrastructure plans of state time to acquire land transport corridors government agencies. for future infrastructure developments

Similarly, responsibility for the day-to-day management and operation of the various components of the transport network would remain with established agencies. The current financial climate also provides an opportunity to The private sector plays an important role in delivering think about longer term needs. Identifying and planning for transport solutions in South East Queensland, and this role is future projects in key growth corridors does not necessarily likely to increase in the future with the planned sale of state require significant resources, but can be very important in the owned transport assets such as Queensland Motorways long term. An economic downturn may actually be the best Limited and . Relevant private sector time to identify and acquire land transport corridors, given the organisations should be involved in the new planning authority potential downturn in property prices. The identification of new via those government agencies they have a direct relationship transport corridors can also lead to renewed investment in with, and should provide input on infrastructure issues/ adjacent corridors by individuals seeking to capitalise on future improvements that may impact on their assets. demand increases. Research has recently shown evidence of a strong link between the development of both residential and employment zones adjacent to major transport corridors75.

27 The approval by the Queensland Government to preserve the Thinking beyond infrastructure Ipswich to Springfield Public Transport Corridor represents an important step towards ensuring adequate transport links for SEQIPP provides a clear direction to all levels of government the Ipswich region. The Ipswich and western regions have of the infrastructure pipeline required over the short to strong forecast population growth to 2056 and are currently medium term. However it is vital that policy makers do under-serviced by public transport. Ensuring the availability not become fixated with this one response. Broader non- of the corridor into the future will allow transport system infrastructure solutions will also be an important part of improvements be delivered in a more cost effective way and the solution to congestion. The announcement by Premier help integrate transport with land-use from an early stage of Anna Bligh of investment in large (TRU Max) trucks to help development. The reservation of the land corridor connecting clear motorway accidents76 is an example of an innovative the Public Transport Corridor with Centenary Highway will also and pragmatic approach to combating congestion without assist planning for complementary downstream projects, such necessarily building new infrastructure. as Northern Link. Other strategies include: Whilst the western region of South East Queensland will be a major centre of population growth, strong growth is also • Ramp metering to improve traffic flows on motorways and expected in other areas, such as the Gold Coast, Cleveland, reduce bottlenecks Caboolture and the Sunshine Coast. The identification and the ongoing preservation of transport corridors in other key • T-2 and T-3 commuter vehicle lanes and priority measures outer urban areas will be vital for ensuring an integrated and for public transport effective transport network in South East Queensland.

28 • Providing information to network users so that they can addition of new capacity, as discussed previously, or through make better decisions about when to use the network and the rationing of existing capacity to some users. This rationing public transport alternatives, for example: may occur through a number of mechanisms, such as a first-in, first-served system such as ramp metering; a behaviour-based - the use of variable messaging signs system such as T-2 and T-3 or public transport lanes; or by a road pricing system where commuters pay directly for use of the - dynamic trip time indicators asset.

- combined car and public transport journey planners Road pricing systems rely on different road users placing different values on their time. Consider a commuter rushing to - improved marketing of public transport an airport in order to make a flight and a commuter travelling to the beach on their day off. It is likely delays caused by congestion will prove more costly for the airport-bound driver. Under a value-based system, it is likely the airport-bound driver Non-infrastructure solutions will be will pay to access limited uncongested road space, while the an important part of the solution to beach-bound driver may prefer to avoid the toll and travel on a congestion more congested, toll-free route.

The concept of road pricing is receiving a great deal of attention around the world, particularly in the UK and other European countries, which have mature motorway networks and reduced Innovative examples of these ideas can be seen in other options for providing additional capacity on existing transport Australian cities and other parts of the world. Unlike many networks. Pricing instruments, such as variable time of day road other cities and regions, South East Queensland has the user charges and congestion charging, are viewed by many opportunity to incorporate these types of measures into new people as a more cost effective way of managing transport infrastructure developments. This can help improve network network use and addressing a key market failure – the fact that performance from ‘day one’ and is likely to be more effective motorists do not fully pay for externalities they impose when than implementing measures retrospectively. SEQIPP includes driving in congested conditions. a series of initiatives which will consider the application of intelligent transport systems to manage congestion. It will be vital to deliver these projects to ensure that the value of new infrastructure developments is maximised. The recent introduction of free-flow tolling could help facilitate innovative road pricing. The debate about the A role for road pricing? role of road pricing in South East What happens when the network is operating at maximum Queensland needs to start now capacity and building new infrastructure is no longer feasible based on likely costs?

Like all types of infrastructure, road assets have a finite So what role could road pricing play in South East Queensland? capacity. Hospitals are limited by the number of beds, schools While it may be too early to answer this question, the debate by the number of classrooms, electricity grids by the capacity of needs to start now. Decisions made about road infrastructure transmission cables and substations. Road space is limited by projects now may influence the extent to which pricing a range of factors including the number of lanes, speed limits, instruments could be introduced in the future. To be successful, surface quality of the road and variable factors such as weather consideration needs to be given to: and light. As patronage increases towards predetermined capacity limits, infrastructure is less able to cope and service • The use of revenues collected through road pricing. If road levels decline. pricing is to be seen as a charge for use of an asset, then there is a strong argument to support the hypothecation of The impacts of these limitations can be managed through the such revenues to the provision and management of transport

29 infrastructure, including road, rail and public transport for the longer anti-clockwise journey charged at $10.45 (less after both passengers and freight. This approach was instrumental the NSW Government cashback) with the shorter clockwise for the successful introduction of the London congestion journey $15.10. Tolling arrangements such as this can result in charge. traffic congestion which might not otherwise occur on a more consistently priced network. • Alternative transport services need to be in place to provide users with an option for modal choice, particularly where There are also some inconsistencies with the way in which policies are directed towards encouraging changes in tolls are levied. Some toll roads use a variable distance based behaviour and travel patterns, and modal shift from private charge, while others do not. Variable time of day tolling has motor cars to public transport. been introduced for the Sydney Harbour crossings but not for other toll roads. A lack of transparency in the way in which tolls are set means that road users do not always understand the Tolling and its implications for pricing basis for charges, and they may feel that they are too high or inappropriate. To date, tolling in South East Queensland has been used as an instrument to finance new road developments, not as a While the development of a comprehensive motorway network mechanism to influence wider travel demand and use of the in Sydney is commendable, the implications of contractual transport network. An inconsistent tolling regime can result in arrangements could have been considered in greater detail at an sub-optimal use of the network, and use of multiple financing earlier stage to provide future scope for an overarching body to arrangements involving PPPs can hinder the ability of authorities coordinate a wider road pricing scheme, encompassing privately to introduce a consistent network-wide road pricing regime at a funded roads and other major arterial roads and freeways which later date. are currently not tolled.

Over many decades tolling in Brisbane has been used as a method to recover the costs of construction and maintenance An inconsistent tolling regime can of various roads ranging from the to the Gateway result in sub-optimal use of the network Motorway. Under current arrangements the Gateway and Logan Motorways are the only roads in Queensland under a user pays regime. However, as a result of the significant infrastructure requirements in the region and the limitations on the public and private sector’s ability to finance these projects, this role will The need to consider the strategic implications of financing increase with new projects currently coming online. instruments can be illustrated through the example of Sydney. Over the past 10 to 15 years the city has successfully Transport planners and policy makers should consider how completed the major components of an orbital road network, demand management solutions, such as pricing, could be but one could argue that the diversity of tolling arrangements introduced in the future. In some cases, this could be done results in sub-optimal use of the network, and could limit the through negotiating modifications to existing motorway deeds. ability of government to impose a consistent pricing regime In other situations it may be appropriate for new deeds to across public and privately funded road projects. be developed with appropriate clauses that allow tolls to be changed in the future. Wider regulatory changes may also need This has led to some inconsistencies which cannot be easily to be considered. rectified. For example, a car travelling fromR ichmond Road on the north western extremity of the orbital network to Also in this mix will be the pre-conditions for the Queensland Kingsford-Smith Airport in the south-east is faced with an Government’s sale of Queensland Motorways Limited (QML). option of travelling in either direction on the orbital network. To date, QML has been able to implement tolls on public roads. Either journey will involve the car travelling between 55 and 57 However, a private owner may have a different approach unless kilometres, however the variation in toll will be significant, with the government sets out certain sale pre-conditions.

30 31 Conclusion

In recent years, rapid population growth in South East integrated planning. The recent amalgamation of the State Queensland has resulted in an unprecedented level of Departments for Main Roads and Transport also represents an infrastructure development. So far the response to the important step towards more integrated planning processes. challenge has been impressive. State and local governments However, further steps are required to provide local authorities have worked in partnership to address some of the key with greater input into the planning process, particularly limitations of the transport network, and develop an improved, Brisbane City Council, which is a major public transport more integrated public transport system. Since its first operator, and currently delivering major transport infrastructure release, SEQIPP has become a widely accepted plan for the projects. provision of regional infrastructure. Annual revisions of SEQIPP have seen it become more integrated into State Government This Paper recommends the establishment of a single processes and budget planning. planning authority for South East Queensland which incorporates the various jurisdictions and planning Planners and policy makers are now faced with further frameworks in the region. Such an authority is now required challenges and opportunities. to prioritise the planning, development and financing of transport infrastructure projects, and to thoroughly integrate A key challenge will be managing congestion in the face of transport and land-use planning across various modes in its strong population growth. While the current global financial infrastructure planning development. crisis will undoubtedly slow the region’s economic growth, longer term population estimates and their implications But an infrastructure plan is only part of the solution. Rigid cannot be ignored. By 2020 it is expected that congestion adherence to ‘lines on maps’ will not necessarily deliver will cost the Brisbane economy around $3 billion per annum, the best outcomes for residents of South East Queensland. and the figure could increase to as much as $6 to $9 billion Infrastructure commitments should be revisited on a regular per annum by 2050. Maintaining a commitment to deliver basis to ensure they remain the right solutions and offer the projects in the infrastructure pipeline will be critical to securing greatest potential benefits in comparison with other projects the region’s growth, but also challenging in current economic and policy options. Obviously, these regular reviews need circumstances. to be balanced against the requirement to give long-term certainty on the future shape and reach of transport networks. Strong, proactive decision making in relation to transport and land-use planning will be vital. For example, delaying difficult Scenario-based planning is an effective way of considering decisions about preserving land corridors for future needs how transport and land-use needs may change in the long may carry a large opportunity cost and increase levels of car term (up to 50 years), and should be used to guide short term dependency and congestion in the long term. Avoiding these project planning and sequencing. Planning processes should issues now may reduce the ability of policy makers to manage be flexible enough to respond to changes to transport needs the urban transport task in the future. and urban form, and new and emerging policy instruments.

Policy makers in South East Queensland now have an Non-infrastructure solutions should be a key part of the opportunity to learn from the experience of other Australian response to the congestion challenge. Further consideration cities that are further along the population growth path, and should be given to the introduction of congestion have already confronted some of these issues. A clear vision management initiatives such as motorway ramp metering, for infrastructure development is something that many other T-2 and T-3 commuter vehicle lanes and priority measures for Australian cities do not have. Brisbane has led the way in public transport. These are just a few of the ways in which the articulating a clear vision for infrastructure development, and transport network can be managed more effectively, without other Australian cities could learn something from this valuable the need for investment in new infrastructure. experience. While the unique governance arrangements in South While the unique (state-local) governance arrangements in East Queensland have enabled an effective response to South East Queensland have enabled an effective response recent transport challenges, there may be opportunities for to recent transport challenges, there may be opportunities further improvements. A centralised authority for all modes for further improvements. The establishment of the TransLink of transport is a concept worth considering further. The Transit Authority shows what can be achieved from more merging of State Government Department of Transport and

32 Department of Main Roads is a positive step, but more may number of road projects using (part or total) private financing, need to be done to integrate planning across the other tiers of for instance, can help deliver transport improvements within government. a short time frame and at a reduced cost to the taxpayer, but can also lessen the ability of authorities to manage Now is the time to start the debate about what happens the transport network in a unified way. Steps should be when building our way out of congestion is no longer an taken now to ensure that legal and financial arrangements option. Road pricing should be part of the discussion, because for infrastructure developments do not restrict options for decisions taken now may influence the extent to which managing the transport network in the future. pricing could be introduced in the future. Developing a large

33 Recommendations

This report recommends a series of 3. Commitment to the current project pipeline: reforms in order to strengthen the Despite the impacts of the global financial crisis, governments planning and governance processes must give a firm commitment to established planning as they apply to the South East processes, and ensure the timely delivery of priority projects. This is essential to meet the future population needs of Queensland transport network. the region and combat rising congestion costs, as well as providing a shorter term boost to the South East Queensland economy. Key projects requiring funding commitments from 1. Create a single, cross-jurisdictional transport governments include: planning body for South East Queensland: • Road and motorway projects This body would provide a forum for the various government jurisdictions to develop a single, unified transport infrastructure - Northern Link plan for the South East Queensland region. The body would - gateway Motorway South also: - Port of Brisbane Motorway Upgrade - Ipswich Motorway (Darra to Rocklea) • prioritise the planning, development and financing of - Centenary Highway upgrade and extension - including transport infrastructure projects; Darra to Ipswich Transport Corridor (Stage 2)

• provide a structure for the assessment of joint project • Public transport projects funding by government to reduce cost shifting; - Eastern Busway (Stages 2 and 3) • integrate planning across different modes of transport; - the Inner Brisbane Rail Capacity Upgrade - Coolangatta Rail Extension • develop a forum for consultation on network impacts of road - gold Coast Light Rail (Stage 2) toll price variations; - darra to Ipswich Transport Corridor (Stage 2) - New Passenger Rolling Stock • support the interaction of land-use and transport planning, and; 4. Consideration of non-infrastructure solutions: • establish a model framework to better engage the Commonwealth Government in infrastructure provision in The development of infrastructure assets currently planned Queensland’s major cities. or under-construction should consider from the outset future opportunities to provide greater integration as part of a single Under this new approach, project delivery and operational transport network. Key considerations should include: management would remain with current tiers of government and associated agencies. • uniform road pricing across the network;

• first-in first-served systems, such as ramp metering; 2. Planning for the long term - a 50 year horizon: • user information systems, such as variable message signs Current long-term planning across governments in South East (VMS) and dynamic trip-time indicators; Queensland is for periods of less than 20 years. These horizons should be significantly broadened to 50 years, allowing for real • behaviour-based systems, such as T-2 and T-3 or public integration between land-use and supporting infrastructure transport lanes, and; development. This change will mirror the planning horizon already used for water infrastructure in South East Queensland. • the identification and reservation of land corridors for future development.

34 References

1. Queensland Department of Local Planning, Sport and Recreation, South East Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP), 2005, 5

2. Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning, Queensland’s Future Population 2008 Edition, prepared by Planning Information and Forecasting Unit (PIFU), 2008 , 3

3. Queensland Department of Local Planning, Sport and Recreation, South East Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP), Amendment 1 2006, 10 ; Queensland Department of Local Planning, Sport and Recreation, South East Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP), 2009, 10 (Based on ‘medium’ series projection, including Toowoomba Statistical Division (SD)); Queensland Water Commission, South East Queensland Water Strategy Draft, 2009, 46

4. Queensland’s Future Population, 2008, Appendix C

5. Draft South East Queensland Regional Plan 2009-2031, 2009

6. Michael West, “Bad connections”, The Sydney Morning Herald, February 24 2009 http://business.smh.com.au (accessed February 25, 2009)

7. BITRE, 2009, Australian transport statistics: Yearbook 2009

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14. SEQRP, 2005, 5; Queensland’s Future Population 2008 Edition, 2008, 20

15. Estimate derived from Queensland’s Future Population 2008 Edition

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18. Brisbane City Council, Transport Plan for 2008-2026, 2008, 5

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22. SEQRP, 2009, 10, 87; SEQRP, 2006 Amdt1, 10

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24. SEQRP, 2009, 87, includes Toowoomba SD

25. SEQRP, 2009, 87, includes Toowoomba SD

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27. SEQRP, 2006, 7

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35 35. Twenty Foot Equivalent Units: a standard unit of measure for shipping containers

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44. BTRE WP71, 2007, 68-70

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58. Derived from benefit estimates contained in Environmental Impact Statements and other planning documents

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61. Derived from benefit estimates contained in Environmental Impact Statements and other planning documents

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36 68. The Hon John Brumby, MP, “Peninsula link commitments to drive jobs and the economy”, Media Statement, March 31 2009 http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/ premier/peninsula-link-commitment-to-drive-jobs-and-economy.html (accessed 24/04/09)

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37 Infrastructure Partnerships Australia

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