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Russia Oil & Gas Report INCLUDES BMI's FORECASTS Q2 2011 www.businessmonitor.com RUSSIA OIL & GAS REPORT INCLUDES BMI'S FORECASTS ISSN 1748-4200 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. RUSSIA OIL & GAS REPORT Q2 2011 INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020 Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: March 2011 Business Monitor International © 2011 Business Monitor International. Mermaid House, All rights reserved. 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, All information contained in this publication is UK copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 International, and as such no part of this publication Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in Email: [email protected] whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Russia Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 Russia Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011 CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 6 SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 8 Russia Political SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Russia Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 Russia Business Environment SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Russia Energy Market Overview ................................................................................................................... 10 Global Oil Market Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 13 Balancing Act ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Table: Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Short-Term Demand Outlook .................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................................................................................................................................................ 16 Short-Term Supply Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................................................................................................................................................................ 19 Longer-Term Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................ 19 Regional Energy Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 21 Oil Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) ................................................................................................................................. 22 Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) ..................................................................................................................................... 23 Oil: Downstream ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) .......................................................................................................................... 24 Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) .................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) ........................................................................................................................................ 26 Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) ............................................................................................................................ 27 Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 28 Central/Eastern Europe Region ........................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Composite Scores ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating .................................................................................................................................. 29 Upstream Scores ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.................................................................................................................................... 30 Russia Upstream Rating – Overview ................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Russia Upstream Rating – Rewards ..................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Russia Upstream Rating – Risks .......................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Downstream Scores .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 32 Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating ............................................................................................................................... 32 Russia Downstream Rating – Overview ............................................................................................................................................................... 33 Russia Downstream Rating – Rewards ................................................................................................................................................................ 33 Russia Downstream Rating – Risks ...................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Business Environment .................................................................................................................................. 34
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