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The Decline of Afro-Palaearctic Migrants and an Assessment of Potential Causes

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The Decline of Afro-Palaearctic Migrants and an Assessment of Potential Causes Ibis (2014), 156,1–22 Review article The decline of Afro-Palaearctic migrants and an assessment of potential causes JULIET A. VICKERY,1* STEVEN R. EWING,1 KEN W. SMITH,1 DEBORAH J. PAIN,1† FRANZ BAIRLEIN,2 JANA SKORPILOVA3 & RICHARD D. GREGORY1 1Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK 2Institute of Avian Research, ‘Vogelwarte Helgoland’, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany 3Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme, Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Belidle 252/34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic There is compelling evidence that Afro-Palaearctic (A-P) migrant bird populations have declined in Europe in recent decades, often to a greater degree than resident or short- distance migrants. There appear to have been two phases of decline. The first in the 1960s– 1970s, and in some cases into the early 1980s, largely affected species wintering predomi- nantly in the arid Sahelian zone, and the second since the 1980s has mostly affected species wintering in the humid tropics and Guinea forest zone. Potential drivers of these declines are diverse and are spread across and interact within the migratory cycle. Our knowledge of declining species is generally better for the breeding than the non-breeding parts of their life cycles, but there are significant gaps in both for many species. On the breeding grounds, degradation of breeding habitats is the factor affecting the demography of the largest num- ber of species, particularly within agricultural systems and woodland and forests. In the non-breeding areas, the interacting factors of anthropogenic habitat degradation and cli- matic conditions, particularly drought in the Sahel zone, appear to be the most important factors. Based on our synthesis of existing information, we suggest four priorities for further research: (1) use of new and emerging tracking technologies to identify migratory pathways and strategies, understand migratory connectivity and enable field research to be targeted more effectively; (2) undertake detailed field studies in sub-Saharan Africa and at staging sites, where we understand little about distribution patterns, habitat use and foraging ecol- ogy; (3) make better use of the wealth of data from the European breeding grounds to explore spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and relate these to migra- tory pathways and large-scale patterns of habitat change and climatic factors; and (4) make better use of remote sensing to improve our understanding of how and where land cover is changing across these extensive areas and how this impacts A-P migrants. This research needs to inform and underpin a flyway approach to conservation, evaluating a suite of driv- ers across the migratory cycle and combining this with an understanding of land manage- ment practices that integrate the needs of birds and people in these areas. Keywords: breeding and wintering grounds, drivers of change, migration, population trends, staging sites. † There is growing evidence that Afro-Palaearctic Present address: Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust, Slimbridge, (A-P) migrants are in decline throughout Europe, Gloucestershire GL2 7BT, UK. with declines often being more pronounced than *Corresponding author. those of either short-distance migrants or sedentary Email: [email protected] species (Sanderson et al. 2006, Heldbjerg & Fox © 2013 British Ornithologists’ Union 2 J. A. Vickery et al. 2008, Thaxter et al. 2010). These declines are of Table 1. Long-term (1980–2009) population trends of selected growing conservation concern in both scientific European Afro-Palaearctic migrants covered by the Pan-Euro- and political arenas (e.g. http://www.cms.int/ pean Common Bird Monitoring Scheme (PECBMS), in order of magnitude of decline. Trends are derived from the combined bodies/COP/cop10/resolutions_adopted/10_27_ breeding bird surveys of the following 25 countries: Austria, landbirds_e.pdf), as the European breeding popu- Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, lations of some formerly widespread species, such Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, as Ortolan Bunting Emberiza hortulana, European Latvia, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Turtle Dove Streptopelia turtur, Whinchat Saxicola Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and UK. rubetra, Northern Wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe Long-term Mean and Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos, have more Pan-European annual rate than halved over 30 years (Table 1). Species trend (%) of change (%) Migrant birds are likely to be more susceptible – – to environmental change than their resident coun- Ortolan Bunting 84 6.12 Emberiza hortulana terparts, as their complex annual cycle, long European Turtle Dove –69 –3.96 migration routes and dependence on different sites Streptopelia turtur at different times place them in ‘multiple jeop- Whinchat Saxicola rubetra –67 –3.75 ardy’ (Newton 2004a). However, despite the large Northern Wheatear –66 –3.65 number of A-P migrants in decline, there have Oenanthe oenanthe Common Nightingale –63 –3.37 been few attempts to review the evidence for the Luscinia megarhynchos factors underlying these patterns, with the excep- River Warbler Locustella –62 –3.28 tion of Zwarts et al. (2009), who focused in partic- fluviatilisa ular on the Sahelian region. Tree Pipit Anthus trivialis –54 –2.64 – – This review provides a synthesis of evidence for Yellow Wagtail 53 2.57 Motacilla flava the extent to which different factors are responsi- Icterine Warbler –50 –2.36 ble for driving the declines of A-P migrants in the Hippolais icterina breeding and non-breeding (wintering and staging) Eurasian Wryneck –49 –2.30 areas, focusing on European-breeding species. The Jynx torquilla – – review falls into four sections. First, we summarize Barred Warbler 48 2.23 Sylvia nisoriaa information on the nature and extent of declines Black-tailed Godwit –45 –2.04 using trend data collected on breeding populations Limosa limosa across Europe. Secondly, we review the nature Spotted Flycatcher –43 –1.92 and strength of the evidence for an impact of Muscicapa striata – – different factors in driving the declines. Thirdly, Common Grasshopper 39 1.69 Warbler Locustella naevia we look in detail at the drivers of change. Red-backed Shrike –36 –1.53 Fourthly, we attempt to identify the most impor- Lanius collurio tant research gaps that need to be addressed to Wood Warbler –33 –1.37 underpin the future conservation of these species. Phylloscopus sibilatrix Willow Warbler –33 –1.37 Phylloscopus trochilis POPULATION TRENDS OF AFRO- Whimbrel Numenius –28 –1.13 PALAEARCTIC MIGRANTS phaeopus Garden Warbler –25 –0.99 An A-P migrant is a species in which at least part Sylvia borin – – of the population moves between breeding areas Common Sandpiper 21 0.81 Actitis hypoleucos in the Palaearctic region and non-breeding grounds Common Cuckoo –21 –0.81 in sub-Saharan Africa each year (Moreau 1972, Cuculus canorus Berthold 2001, Newton 2004a). Under the widely Pied Flycatcher –21 –0.81 recognized classification of migratory strategy out- Ficedula hypoleuca – – lined by BirdLife International (2004), 126 bird House Martin 18 0.68 Delichon urbica species are regarded as A-P migrants, with esti- Barn Swallow –18 –0.68 mates of the overall numbers of individual birds Hirundo rustica involved ranging from 2.1 billion (Hahn et al. 2009) to more than 5 billion (Moreau 1972). (continued) © 2013 British Ornithologists’ Union The decline of Afro-Palaearctic migrants 3 Table 1. (continued) showed declines that exceeded those of short-dis- tance migrants and residents (e.g. Denmark, Long-term Mean Heldbjerg & Fox 2008; Germany, Flade et al. Pan-European annual rate 2008; The Netherlands, Van Turnhout et al. Species trend (%) of change (%) 2010a), although this difference was not evident Lesser Whitethroat –15 –0.56 in three countries (France, Julliard et al. 2003; Es- Sylvia curruca tonia, Kuresoo et al. 2011; Czech Republic, Reif Sedge Warbler –12 –0.44 et al. 2010). If we divide the long-distance Acrocephalus migrants monitored by the PECBMS into those schoenobaenus associated with farmland and those in other habi- Eurasian Reed Warbler –7 –0.25 Acrocephalus scirpaceus tats, and examine their grouped-species trends, Common Swift Apus apus 5 0.17 there is a suggestion that farmland migrants have Common Redstart 7 0.23 fared worse than the others, but the trends are not Phoenicurus phoenicurus significantly different (Fig. 1b: F1,29 = 3.92, Thrush Nightingale 9 0.30 = 0.058). Luscinia luscinia P Marsh Warbler 15 0.48 Examination of long-term datasets in Europe Acrocephalus palustris reveals two relatively distinct periods of decline Eurasian Golden Oriole 18 0.57 that are broadly consistent between studies and Oriolus oriolus are evident on both national and European scales. Great Reed Warbler 20 0.63 a At the European level, two studies using data from Acrocephalus arundinaceus Common Whitethroat 27 0.83 the Birds in Europe (BiE) database (BirdLife Inter- Sylvia communis national 2004) show that A-P migrants declined Hoopoe Upupa epopsa 137 3.02 markedly in Europe during 1970–1990, but less so Collared Flycatcher 142 3.09 between 1990 and 2000 (Sanderson et al. 2006, Ficedula albicollisa a Møller et al. 2008). Of the 119 species considered, White Stork Ciconia ciconia 204 3.91 fi Marsh Harrier 310 4.99 40 (33%) declined signi cantly and 15 increased Circus aeruginosus between 1970 and 1990, whereas between 1990 and 2000, numbers of increasing and decreasing
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