FSAUFood Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Security Brief - Focus on Post Deyr Season Early Warning , December 2007 FSAU Food Security Analysis Unit Somalia & Nutrition Issued December 21, 2007 Quarterly Brief - Focus on Post Deyr Season Early Warning The FSAU and partner Post Deyr 2007/08 Seasonal Assessment for the north was conducted in No- vember and is currently ongoing in southern and central Somalia. Results of the assessment and the updated Integrated Food Security Phase Classification with projections for the next six months will be vetted with partners the last week of January and released shortly thereafter. Climate Key Issues & Early Warning for January to June 2008 • Increasing humanitarian needs for new IDPs and host communities, especially in the Shabelle and Markets Central Regions: The ongoing and increasing levels of tension and instability, both within Mogadishu, and in surrounding areas, resulted in another wave of population displacement in the last month. The Nutrition current best estimate of IDPs from Mogadishu since February is now 670,000. The displacement of another 70,000 people, only in the last two weeks, will lead to further deteriorations in the humanitar- ian situation in many areas, especially in the Shabelle and central regions where host communities are Agriculture already severely stressed (page 3). • Record high food high prices threatens food access for the rural poor, IDPs and urban populations. Livestock Locally produced maize and sorghum prices, as well as imported cereal prices (wheat flour and rice) have increased steadily over the last 12 months, with the sharpest increases in the last six months, and are now at Civil record high price levels in several markets. In southern Somalia, maize and sorghum prices have increased Insecurity 100 to 150% since January 2007. Rice prices in the central and northeast regions are at an all time high, having doubled since January 2007. The scale and magnitude of the cereal price increases is a unique and significant event – one that is a serious threat to household food security, as cereal market purchases are a main source of food for most poor rural populations and all urban populations. Populations at particular risk are in areas where the Deyr cereal production prospects are poor, such as in Hiran and some rainfed areas of Shabelle, as low production will mean higher reliance on market purchases, and in areas where civil insecurity is continuing to increase, disrupting economic activities and trade, as income opportuni- ties will be limited. For the 670,000 newly displaced people from Mogadishu and the host communities supporting these IDPs, the food price increases will have a significant impact on food access, threatening to accelerate their deteriorating humanitarian situation (page 4 and 8). • The ongoing Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) in Hiran region is worsening due to the combination of poor Deyr crop establishment and deteriorating rangeland conditions following poor Deyr rains, peak and rapidly increasing locally produced and imported cereal prices (sorghum prices increased 145% in the last six months, and are the highest in all of southern So- malia), and increasing civil tensions and insecurity is leading to a worsening situation (page 3). FSAU - Somalia • Early warning levels for Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis are heightened in central regions, as Kalson Towers, pasture, browse, and water resources continue to deteriorate. Most berkads and natural water catchments Parklands are very low and in some areas already empty. With limited options for migration, many pastoralists will Box 1230 Village be dependent on water trucking during the long dry Jilaal season. Significantly increased and record high Market cereal prices (rice and sorghum), a continuing inflow of IDPs from Mogadishu, and increased tensions Nairobi, Kenya and insecurity (page 7 & 11). Tel: +254 20 374 5734 • Overall, crop establishment in the south is considered normal in Juba, Bay, Gedo and the Shabelle Fax: +254 20 374 0598 regions, with the exception of the coastal rainfed areas of the Shabelle regions (page 4). email: [email protected] www.fsausomali.org Gu Rains Hagaa Deyr Rains Jilaal Dry Season April May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2007 2008 Humanitarian Near normal Deyr rains in Lowest cereal harvest Insecurity intensi- Gu rains are below Emergency worsens most of the south and north, in over a decade (31% fies in Mogadishu, normal in south and in Shabelle regions, with poor rains in Hiran and of PWA). New IDPs 365,000 people central Somalia, but as thousands of central regions. Continued from Mogadishu reach displaced since normal to above normal families flee Mogadishu displacement - IDPs esti- 400,000. mated 670,000. Record high Feb. in the north. Emergency in a new wave of cereal prices, both locally level malnutrition rates in displacement. Shabelle region. produced and imported. Somalia Seasonal Timeline & Key Events 1 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Brief - Focus on Post Deyr Season Early Warning , December 2007 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS Map 1: Cumulative RFE Oct., Nov. Map 2: Cumulative RFE % deviation Map 3: NDVI annomaly for the 1st plus 1st dekad of Dec' 07 from long term mean Oct, Nov and dekad of Dec 2007 1st dekad of Dec '07 % CLIMATE The Deyr rains (October-December) are the secondary rains in southern Somalia and contribute on average 40 per- cent of the annual cereal production, while the Gu rains (April-June) are the main rains contributing 60 percent. The performance of the Deyr season is also critical for rangelands as it is followed by the long dry Jilaal season (January to March). The Deyr '07 rainy season started the second dekad of October in most regions, indicating a timely onset of the rainy season. The overall rainfall performance in terms of the intensity, coverage and distribution over time is mixed. The majority of the southern agricultural regions received good rains, while most of the central regions, parts climate of the northeast, and small pockets in the south received less than 50 mm of rain (Map 1). Areas where the rains performed poorly include the northern parts of Bakool, the coastal areas of the Shabelle and cen- tral regions, Hiran, parts of Galdagud and Mudug, eastern Nugal Valley (Garowe and Taleh districts), and the western part of Sool-Sanaag plateau in the northeast. In these areas, rains were below normal in both amount and distribution. With the exception of some areas in Galgadud, most of the central rangelands extending from Hiran to Galkayo, the cumulative seasonal rainfall was between 0 and 50mm. Compared to the long term mean, most of these areas received less than 60 percent of the normal rains for the period October to first dekad of December (Map 2). Rainfall totals in these areas have been insufficient to replenish water sources, regenerate pasture, and for rainfed crop development. The localized nature of rainfall has also resulted in abnormal livestock migration, which is adding pressure to limited rangeland and water resources. Water availability is currently below normal and most of the underground water res- ervoirs (berkeds) are either empty or only a quarter replenished. In most of the agricultural regions in the south, satellite imagery indicates, and field reports confirm, that rains were normal to above normal. Data from the rain gauge network also shows that the performance of the rainy season is largely normal in most parts of the south. Juba regions received more than 300 percent of normal rainfall for the pe- riod October 1 to December 10, while most of Bay, Gedo, and parts of Shabelle regions received 80 – 120 percent of normal (Map 2). In the Shabelle regions, Deyr rainfall started on time, however, there was a great variation in terms of intensity and distribution over time and area. Areas with adequate rainfall include Wanle Weyn, Qoriole, Kurtunwarey and parts of Afgoye, while Adan yabal, coastal strips of Merka, Kurtunwarey and Barava received little or no rains. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained through satellite imagery, compared to a long term mean, show that current vegetation levels for this time of year are well above normal in southern Somalia and parts of the north, reflecting the normalDeyr rainfall and Gu/Karan rains (Map 3). The exceptions are parts of central regions and coastal areas of the Shabelle regions where the NDVI indicator is low due to poor Deyr rainfall. Field reports support and confirm the satellite imagery data. 2 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Brief - Focus on Post Deyr Season Early Warning , December 2007 CIVIL INSECuRITy AND IDPS Mogadishu remains violent, extremely tense and volatile. Reports indicate that inhabitants who remain in the city are now living in a state of terror and are under constant threats of harassment. Many districts within the city are deserted leaving assets, household and business assets open for looting and destruction. The ongoing and increasing civil insecurity and tension will continue to limit trade and economic activities, as well as restrict port and market move- ments in and out of the city, thus ensuring continued high prices of basic commodities and reduced income earning opportunities. The ongoing and increasing levels of ten- Table 1: Estimated IDP Populations Estimated % of total % of Regional % of Regional Estimated # of sion and instability, both within Mogadi- Region population (estimated) Total urban IDPs to-date shu, as well as the surrounding areas, have (UNDP 2005) IDPs by region Population Population Awdal 305,455 10 0 0.0 0.0 resulted in another wave of population Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 10,000 1 1.4 2.0 displacement in the last month. The cur- Togdheer 402,295 710 0 0.2 0.6 Sanaag 270,367 760 0 0.3 1.4 rent best estimate of the number of people Sool 150,277 4,400 1 2.9 11.2 who have left Mogadishu since February is Bari 367,638 3,800 1 1.0 2.1 Mudug 350,099 52,050 8 14.9 55.1 now roughly 670,000 (Source: Protection Galgaduud 330,057 120,700 18 36.6 204.7 Cluster, Dec.