Kenner Retail Analysis
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Exhibit G Retail Market Analysis Kenner, Louisiana Prepared For: City of Kenner Prepared By; Gibbs Planning Group, Inc. 06 November 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 3 Background .......................................................................................................................... 4 Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 5 RETAIL TRADE AREAS ................................................................................................... 5 Existing Primary Trade Area ............................................................................................... 6 Best Practices Primary Trade Area ...................................................................................... 7 Lifestyle Tapestry Demographics ........................................................................................ 9 Employment Base ................................................................................................................ 13 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS ....................................................................................... 15 Location ............................................................................................................................... 15 Rivertown ............................................................................................................................. 16 Access .................................................................................................................................. 16 General Retail Market Conditions ....................................................................................... 17 Shopping Centers in Kenner ................................................................................................ 18 COMPETING SHOPPING CENTERS ................................................................................ 21 RETAIL AND RESTAURANT DEMAND ......................................................................... 25 Supportable Retail Table ....................................................................................................... 25 Analysis Assumptions ........................................................................................................... 26 Rationale ............................................................................................................................... 27 Retail Category Definitions .................................................................................................. 27 Shopping Center Definitions ................................................................................................. 30 Limits of Study ..................................................................................................................... 31 APPENDIX ........................................................................................................................... 34 Exhibit A: Existing Primary Trade Area Business Summary ............................................... 34 Exhibit B: Existing Primary Trade Area Community Profile ............................................... 36 Exhibit C: Existing Primary Trade Area Housing Profile ................................................... 43 Exhibit D: Existing Primary Trade Area Dominant Tapestry Descriptions.......................... 45 Exhibit E: Best Practices Primary Trade Area Business Summary ...................................... 46 Exhibit F: Best Practices Primary Trade Community Profile ............................................... 48 Exhibit G: Best Practices Primary Trade Area Housing Profile ........................................... 55 INTRODUCTION Figure 1: Kenner is in Southeastern Louisiana and is the sixth largest city in the state (pictured above is a view of Veterans Highway in Kenner) Executive Summary This study analyzes the retail market potential of the City of Kenner under two different scenarios: 1) under existing conditions and 2) under a setting where a walkable town center is built utilizing industry best practices. Under existing conditions, Kenner can presently support up to 60,000 square feet (sf) of new retail and restaurant development, which could generate as much as $16.6 million in sales by 2024. This new commercial development could include 8 to 12 new retail stores totaling 40,000 sf and 6 to 8 new restaurants totaling 20,000 sf. On the other hand, the city could support significantly more retail and restaurant development if a town center was built using industry best practices for walkability, development standards and beautification. In that scenario, Kenner could support up to 210,000 sf of new retail and restaurant development which could generate as much as $69.3 million in sales by 2024. This new commercial development could include 35 to 45 new retail stores totaling 140,000 sf and 18 to 22 restaurants totaling 70,000 sf. Kenner Retail Market Analysis 3. Gibbs Planning Group, Inc. 06 November 2019 Under present existing conditions, Kenner’s primary trade area is home to roughly 120,000 people and 50,000 households with a $74,200 average annual income. Twenty-eight percent of primary trade area residents over the age of 25 have a four-year college degree and 35.4 percent of households earn over $75,000 per year. However, Kenner’s primary trade area would expand if the city built a walkable town center utilizing industry best practices. In that situation, the primary trade area would grow to include over 200,000 people living in 85,000 households with a $78,300 average annual income. Over 32 percent of these residents over the age of 25 have a four-year college degree and 36.7 percent of these households earn over $75,000 per year. Figure 2: Detailed map of the City of Kenner. Background Gibbs Planning Group, Inc. (GPG) has been retained by the City of Kenner, Louisiana to conduct a retail feasibility analysis to determine how much retail and restaurant development (if any) is supportable in the city. GPG addressed the following issues in this study: 4. Kenner Retail Market Analysis Gibbs Planning Group, Inc. 06 November 2019 • What is the retail market of the City of Kenner and surrounding areas? • What are the potential trade areas for the City of Kenner? • What are the population, demographic and lifestyle characteristics of the City of Kenner’s trade areas currently and projected for 2024? • How much retail square footage is supportable in the City of Kenner and what retailers may seek to deploy a new business there? • What retail sales volumes can potentially be achieved in the City of Kenner by these new businesses? Methodology To address the above issues, GPG defined trade areas that would likely serve retail development in Kenner based on geographic and topographic considerations, traffic access/flow in the area, relative retail strengths, concentrations of daytime employment and the retail gravitation in the market, as well as our experience defining trade areas for similar markets. Population, consumer expenditure and demographic characteristics of trade area residents was collected by census tracts from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). Finally, based on the projected consumer expenditure capture (demand) in the primary trade area of the gross consumer expenditure by retail category, less the current existing retail sales (supply) by retail category, GPG projects the potential net consumer expenditure (gap) available to support existing and new commercial development. The projected net consumer expenditure capture is based on household expenditure and demographic characteristics of the trade areas, existing and planned retail competition, traffic and retail gravitational patterns and GPG’s qualitative assessment of the City of Kenner. Net potential captured consumer expenditure (gap) is equated to potential retail development square footage, with the help of retail sales per square foot data provided by Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers (Urban Land Institute and International Council of Shopping Centers), qualitatively adjusted to fit the urbanism and demographics of the City of Kenner. RETAIL TRADE AREAS The primary trade area is the consumer market where the study area has a significant competitive advantage because of access, design, lack of quality competition and traffic and commute patterns. This competitive advantage equates to a potential windfall in the capture of consumer expenditure by the retailers in the study area. GPG defines a primary trade area by topography, vehicular access, strength of retail competition and residential growth patterns instead of standardized “drive-times.” We estimate that consumers inside the primary trade area will account for up to 60 to 70 percent of the total sales captured by retailers in the City of Kenner. This analysis includes two different primary trade areas, one that applies under current existing conditions (“existing primary trade area”) and the other if Kenner develops a walkable town center using industry best practices (“best practices primary trade area”). Kenner Retail Market Analysis 5. Gibbs Planning Group, Inc. 06 November 2019 Existing Primary Trade