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Comparative Analysis of Crime Rates: Connecticut, the United States and Adjacent Northeast States – 1960 to 2007

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Comparative Analysis of Crime Rates: Connecticut, the United States and Adjacent Northeast States – 1960 to 2007 STATE OF CONNECTICUT y OFFICE OF POLICY & MANAGEMENT (OPM) y RESEARCH, ANALYSIS & EVALUATION Criminal Justice Policy & Planning Division 450 Capitol Avenue, Hartford, CT 06106-1379 y (860) 418-6248 y WWW.CT.GOV/OPM/CriminalJustice/Research Comparative Analysis of Crime Rates: Connecticut, the United States and Adjacent Northeast States – 1960 to 2007 Contents The purpose of this document is to provide a relative measurement of increasing or decreasing crime rates, by Total Crime Rate ......................................................2 offense category for Connecticut, the United States and a Property Crime Rate.................................................3 cohort of other Northeast states – Rhode Island, Larceny-Theft Rate...................................................4 Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Burglary Rate ...........................................................5 Motor Vehicle – Theft Rate.......................................6 Overall, the total crime rate for Connecticut in 2007 Violent Crime Rate ...................................................7 (2.655.9 per 100,000 inhabitants) is the lowest it has Robbery Rate ...........................................................8 been in 40 years, since prior to 1968. Across the U.S. Aggravated Assault Rate..........................................9 the 2007 Crime Index reported an overall decline of -2.0 Forcible Rape Rate ................................................10 percent; Connecticut decreased by twice this rate by 4.6 Murder & Non-negligent Manslaughter Rate ..........11 percent. Appendix ................................................................12 Property crimes are the most frequent, at 2,399.9 per 100,000 in Connecticut and at 3,263.5 per 100,000 for the U.S. in 2007. Overall, Connecticut’s property crime Summary trend is similar to that of the other adjacent Northeast states which has been steadily declining from 1990 to This document provides a comparative analysis of crime 2007. rates for Connecticut, the United States and a cohort of other Northeast states – Rhode Island, Massachusetts, In 2007, Rhode Island and New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. This trend Connecticut had the highest analysis is based upon the categories of Uniform Crime larceny-theft rates in the Reporting (UCR) data collected by the Federal Bureau of Northeast, but overall these rates Investigation (FBI) for the years 1960 – 2007. (For a more have continued to decline since thorough discussion of UCR data and disclaimers please the early eighties and are well see the Appendix). below the national average. Offenses that make up the Crime Index are Part I crimes— In 2007 New York, New Jersey and Connecticut had the the violent crimes of murder and non-negligent lowest rates for burglary compared to other adjacent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated states in the Northeast. assault and the property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft, From 1991 to 2007, the trend lines for motor vehicle and motor vehicle theft. The UCR Program added arson in thefts in Connecticut have been steadily declining, as 1979 to the Crime Index. Although data on arson is have other adjacent states in the Northeast. reported, it is not included in the property crime subtotals. From 1995 to 2007, Rhode Island and Connecticut have Nationally, the 2007 Crime Index, with an estimated the lowest violent crime when compared to other 11,251,818 offenses, declined by more than -1.3% when adjacent Northeast states. Of these states, Connecticut compared to the 2006 Index; for Connecticut with had the largest decrease of -8.8 percent for violent crime approximately 93,017 offenses, it declined by over -4.7%. in 2007. The Crime Index for 2007 was comprised of 12% violent crime and 88% property crime; for Connecticut this was New York has had the highest rate of robbery compared 10% violent crime and 90% property crime. The offense of to other adjacent states in the Northeast for the past 46 larceny-theft accounted for the greatest part of the Crime years. Connecticut robbery rates are typically among Index, at 58% for the U.S. and 64% for Connecticut. the lowest second only to Rhode Island in 2007. Murder, the least often committed crime in the Index, In 2007, Rhode Island and Connecticut had the lowest contributed slightly more than two-tenths of a percent to rates of aggravated assault compared to other adjacent the total for the U.S. and even less for Connecticut. states in the Northeast with both being more than 50% Connecticut showed a significant decrease of -8.9 percent lower than the national rate. in the number of violent crimes brought to their attention in 2007 compared to 2006 figures with the U.S. showing a Connecticut’s rate of forcible rape has consistently been slight decline of -0.7%. The number of property crimes much lower than the national average. For 2007 the during the same time period decreased for both the U.S. U.S. has declined to 30 per 100,000 with Connecticut at and Connecticut by -1.4% and -4.2%, respectively, when 18.8. compared to 2006 figures. The Crime Index rate reflects Homicides are relatively infrequent in Connecticut at 3.0 the number of Index offenses per 100,000 inhabitants, for per 100,000; compared to 5.6 for the U.S. in 2007. the Nation it was 3,730.4; for Connecticut it was much less at 2,655.9. Data Note: If towns are missing information for the FBI’s Crime in the U.S. reports, the State totals will reflect estimated values for missing data by forecasting previous figures. September 2008 Page 1 of 12 STATE OF CONNECTICUT y CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICY & PLANNING (CJPPD) y RESEARCH, ANALYSIS & EVALUATION Total Crime Rate Total Crime Rate The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program defines total crime rate as an index for gauging fluctuations in the overall volume and rate of crime. Also known as the Crime Index, these seven offenses included the violent crimes of murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault and the property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Connecticut’s total crime rate follows the pattern of other adjacent Northeast States, but typically at a lower rate. Overall, the total crime rate for Connecticut in 2007 (2.655.9 per 100,000 inhabitants) is the lowest it has been in 40 years. As with most other adjacent States, the total crime rate peaked in 1980 and again in 1990 with a steady decline to 2007. In 2007, Rhode Island had the highest crime rate when compared to other adjacent Northeast States. CHART 1a – Total Crime Rate in Connecticut and Adjacent States, 1960-2007 (Rate per 100,000 population) 7000.0 PA MA RI 6000.0 CT NJ 5000.0 NY US 4000.0 3000.0 2000.0 (Rate per 100,000 population) 1000.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: FBI’s Crime in the United States, 1960-2007, http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm Across the U.S. the 2007 Crime Index reported an overall decline of -2.0 percent; Connecticut decreased by twice this rate by 4.6 percent. Connecticut’s total crime rate has patterned similarly to that of the U.S. over the past 46 years, but at a lower rate with the exception of 1979 to 1980. CHART 1b – Total Crime Rate in Connecticut and the US, 1960-2007 (Rate per 100,000 population) 7000.0 6000.0 US 5000.0 4000.0 CT 3000.0 2000.0 1000.0 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: FBI’s Crime in the United States, 1960-2007, http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm September 2008 Page 2 of 12 STATE OF CONNECTICUT y CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICY & PLANNING (CJPPD) y RESEARCH, ANALYSIS & EVALUATION Property Crime Rate Property Crime Property crime includes the offenses of burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. The object of the theft-type offenses is the taking of money or property, but there is no force or threat of force against the victims. The property crime category includes arson because the offense involves the destruction of property; however, arson victims may be subjected to force. Property crimes are the most frequent, at 3,263.5 per 100,000 inhabitants for the U.S. and at 2,399.9 per 100,000 in Connecticut in 2007. Overall, Connecticut’s property crime trend is similar to that of the other adjacent Northeast states which has been steadily declining from 1990 to 2007. Connecticut property crime rates have returned to those seen in the late sixties. CHART 2a – Property Crime Rate in Connecticut and Adjacent States, 1960-2007 (Rate per 100,000 population) 7000.0 RI CT 6000.0 PA MA 5000.0 NJ NY 4000.0 3000.0 2000.0 1000.0 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: FBI’s Crime in the United States, 1960-2007, http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm Connecticut’s property crime rate has patterned similarly to that of the U.S. over the past 46 years, but at a lower rate with the exception of 1977 to 1983. The number of property crimes for the U.S. and Connecticut continued to decrease in 2007 by 1.4% and 4.2%, respectively, when compared to 2006 figures. CHART 2b – Property Crime Rate in Connecticut and the US, 1960-2007 (Rate per 100,000 population) 7000.0 6000.0 5000.0 US 4000.0 3000.0 CT 2000.0 1000.0 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: FBI’s Crime in the United States, 1960-2007, http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm September 2008 Page 3 of 12 STATE OF CONNECTICUT y CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICY & PLANNING (CJPPD) y RESEARCH, ANALYSIS & EVALUATION Larceny-Theft Rate Larceny-Theft The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program defines larceny-theft as the unlawful taking, carrying, leading, or riding away of property from the possession or constructive possession of another.
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