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AI-Qaeda and Weapons of Mass Destruction DOES INTENT EQUAL CAPABILITY?

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AI-Qaeda and Weapons of Mass Destruction DOES INTENT EQUAL CAPABILITY? REPORT DOES INTENT EQUALEQUAL CAPABILITY?CAPABILITY? AI-Qaeda and Weapons of MassMass Destruction Sammy SalamaSalama and Lydia Hansell The prospect of terrorists deploying weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is often referred to as the foremost dangerdanger toto AmericanAmerican nationalnational security. security. This This dangerdanger has has becomebecome moremore realisticrealistic becausebecause of al-Qaeda's expanding global network andand thethe expressedexpressed willingness toto kill thousands of civilians. In thethe pastpast fourfour years,years, numerous media reports have documented the group's ongoing quest for WMDWMD capabilities; many reports have detailed al-Qaeda members' attemptsattempts to manufacture or obtain certaincertain chemical,chemical, biological,biological, radiological,radiological, andand nuclearnuclear (CBRN)(CBRN) agentsagents toto use in WMDWMD against targetstargets inin thethe West West andand the the Middle Middle East. East. YetYet the question remains:remains: DoesDoes al-Qaeda's current WMD capability match itsits actualactual intent?intent? WhileWhile mostmost studiesstudies of thethe groupgroup havehave focusedfocused on its explicit desiredesire for WMD,WMD, allegations ofof CBRN CBRN acquisition,acquisition, and the killing potentialpotential of of specific speCific CBRN CBRN agents, few open-source studies havehave closelyclosely examinedexamined thethe evolutionevolution of al-Qaeda's consideration of WMDWMD and,and, mostmost notably,notably, thethe meritmerit of of actual actual CBRN CBRN productionproduction instructionsinstructions asas depicteddepicted and disseminated inin the group's own literature and manuals. The following report will examineexamine the history ofof al-Qaeda's al-Qaeda's interest in CBRN agents, agents, the the evolution evolution ofof thethe network'snetwork's attitudeattitude toward thesethese weapons, andand the internal debatedebate within thethe organizationorganization concerningconcerning acquisitionacquisition and useuse of WMD.WMD. More so,50, thethe followingfollowing researchresearch willwill assessassess the validityvalidity ofof actual actual CBRN CBRN productionproduction instructionsinstructions and capabilitiescapabilities as displayeddisplayed and disseminateddisseminated inin al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's own literatureliterature andand websites. KEYWORDS: Al-Qaeda;AI-Qaeda; Terrorism; WMD terrorism; Nuclear;Nuclear; Biological; Chemical; Radiological; CBRN; Terrorist Terrorist manuals;manuals; Uranium;Uranium; Radium; Plague; Ricin; Cyanide;Cyanide; HydrogenHydrogen sulfide; Mustard gas; Botulinum toxin; CesiumCesium 137; RDD; DirtyDirty bomb; Osama Bin Laden; AbuAbu Musab - al Zarqawi; Nuclear preparation encyclopedia;encyclopedia; WMDWMD FatwaFatwa The prospect of terrorists deployingdeploying weaponsweapons ofof mass mass destruction (WMD)(WMD) is the foremost danger to U.S.u.s. national security.security. During the 20042004 U.S.U.s. presidentialpresidential debates, thethe danger of WMD terrorism was one of the fewfew topicstopics onon whichwhich both both candidates candidates agreed.agreed. SinceSince the September 11, 2001 (9/11) attacks inin the UnitedUnited States,States, this danger hashas become moremore realisticrealistic because of al-Qaeda's expandingexpanding globalglobal network and itsits expressedexpressed willingness to kill thousands ofof civilians.civilians. InIn the pastpast four years,years, there have been numerous media reports concerning the group'sgroup's ongoingongoing questquest for for WMD WMD capabilities;capabilities; manymany reportsreports havehave detaileddetailed al-Qaedaal-Qaeda members'members' attemptsattempts toto manufacturemanufacture or obtainobtain certaincertain chemical,chemica/, biological,biological, radiological,radiological, andand nuclearnuclear (CBRN)(CBRN) agentsagents toto use as a weapon of massmass destruction againstagainst targetstargets inin thethe West West andand thethe Middle Middle East. East. YetYet thethe questionquestion remains: remains: DoesDoes al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's current WMD capability match its actualactual intent? Nonproliferation Review,Review, Vol.Vol. 12,72, NoNo 3,3, NovemberNovember 20052005 ISSNISSN 1073-6700 print/lSSNprint/ISSN 1746-1766 oniine/05/03061online/05/030615-39 5-39 Routledge © 2005 2005 TheThe MontereyMonterey InstituteInstitute of of International International Studies, Studies, CenterCenter for NonproliferationNonproliferation StudiesStudies Taylor &Francis Croup DOI:DOl: 10.1080/1073670060060123610.1080/10736700600601236 ACLURM002136 616616 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMASALAMA ANDAND LYDIA HANSELL WhileWhile mostmost studiesstudies of of thethe group have focused on its explicitexplicit desiredesire for WMD,WMD, allegationsallegations ofof CBRN acquisition, acquisition, and and the the killingkilling potential ofof specific specific CBRNCBRN agents, fewfew open-source studiesstudies havehave closely closely examined examined the the evolutionevolution of al-Qaeda's considerationconsideration ofof WMDWMD andand mostmost notably,notably, thethe merit of actual CBRN production production instructionsinstructions as depicteddepicted andand disseminateddisseminated in in thethe group'sgroup's own literature and manuals.manuals. YetYet monitoring and analysisanalysis ofof primary al-Qaedaal-Qaeda literature literature provides provides the the most most revealingrevealing window window intointo the actualactual motivations, goals, and capabilities of al-Qaeda.al-Qaeda. It is notnot thethe objective of this report toto examineexamine al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's abilityability and desiredesire toto targettarget chemical andand nuclear facilitiesfacilities withinwithin the United States.States. The prospect of such incidents is worthy of separateseparate andand lengthylengthy in-depth investigation and is beyond the scope ofof this particular research.research. Nor Nor is is it it the the intentintent of thisthis reportreport toto explore explore alleged alleged weaknessesweaknesses ofof certain American industriesindustries to to aa WMDWMD attack,attack, aa topictopic that hashas recently attracted much attention inin thethe U.S.U.S. news. ThisThis reportreport will examine the historyhistory ofof al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's interest in CBRN agents, agents, the the evolution evolution of of the the network's attitudeattitude toward thesethese weapons, and the internal debate within thethe organizationorganization concerningconcerning acquisitionacquisition andand useuse ofof WMD. WMD. More so, the following researchresearch will assessassess thethe validityvalidity of actual CBRN productionproduction instructionsinstructions and capabilities asas displayed andand disseminated in al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's own literature,literature, manuals,manuals, and websites. ThisThis sortsort ofof analysis on on issuesissues of of nonproliferation nonproliferation and international terrorism is not oftenoften coveredcovered inin open-sourceopen-source research.research. What isis alal-Qaeda?-Qaeda? AI-QaedaAl-Qaeda isis aa SunniSunni Salafi Salafi Jihadi Jihadi network network with with affiliatesaffiliates andand supporters spread all over the globe. The network formed its roots during thethe 1980s1980s when IslamistIslamist ideologues began to recruitrecruit fighters from the Muslim world toto oppose oppose thethe Soviet Soviet invasioninvasion ofof Afghanistan. In the years thatthat followed and up to today,today, al-Qaedaal-Qaeda has continuedcontinued to attract supporterssupporters around the world withwith itsits internationalinternational jihadistjihadist ideology.ideology. TheThe group hashas gained much publicity in thethe pastpast decadedecade followingfollowing the the 1998 1998 U.S. U.S. embassy bombings inin KenyaKenya andand TanzaniaTanzania and the 9/11 attacksattacks on the WorldWorld TradeTrade Center and the Pentagon.Pentagon. Whereas al-Qaedaal-Qaeda is is often often envisioned envisioned as as a a well-definedwell-defined group, group, itit can be moremore accuratelyaccurately described asas aa looselyloosely affiliatedaffiliated networknetwork with veryvery littlelittle hierarchicalhierarchical structure.structure. The diffused nature of the groupgroup posesposes manymany obstaclesobstacles to intelligenceintelligence collectioncollection andand hashas resultedresulted inin myriadmyriad contradictorycontradictory andand sensationalistsensationalist accountsaccounts inin open-sourceopen-source literature.literature. ManyMany reportsreports concerningconcerning al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's capability to conduct futurefuture attacksattacks areare focusedfocused onon aa potentialpotential WMDWMD capability.capability. WhileWhile thethe use use of of CBRN CBRN agentsagents isis aa realreal security concern, the al-al­ QaedaQaeda network is more likely toto conduct future attacksattacks by utilizing conventionalconventional weaponsweapons inin unconventionalunconventional ways.ways. Al-QaedaAI-Qaeda aims to expel Westerners andand Muslims deemed "un-Islamic" from MuslimMuslim countriescountries and imposeimpose IslamicIslamic rule on countriescountries inin thethe Middle Middle East. East. TheThe group'sgroup's primaryprimary goalgoal duringduring thethe 1990s 1990s waswas toto forceforce U.S.U.s. militarymilitary andand civiliancivilian establishmentsestablishments out ofof Saudi Saudi Arabia.'Arabia.' SinceSince then,then, al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's objectiveobjective has expandedexpanded toto include thethe establishmentestablishment ofof a a worldwideworldwide IslamicIslamic community, based
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