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REPORT DOES INTENT EQUALEQUAL CAPABILITY?CAPABILITY? AI-Qaeda and Weapons of MassMass Destruction

Sammy SalamaSalama and Lydia Hansell

The prospect of terrorists deploying weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is often referred to as the foremost dangerdanger toto AmericanAmerican nationalnational security. security. This This dangerdanger has has becomebecome moremore realisticrealistic becausebecause of al-Qaeda's expanding global network andand thethe expressedexpressed willingness toto kill thousands of civilians. In thethe pastpast fourfour years,years, numerous media reports have documented the group's ongoing quest for WMDWMD capabilities; many reports have detailed al-Qaeda members' attemptsattempts to manufacture or obtain certaincertain chemical,chemical, biological,biological, radiological,radiological, andand nuclearnuclear (CBRN)(CBRN) agentsagents toto use in WMDWMD against targetstargets inin thethe West West andand the the Middle Middle East. East. YetYet the question remains:remains: DoesDoes al-Qaeda's current WMD capability match itsits actualactual intent?intent? WhileWhile mostmost studiesstudies of thethe groupgroup havehave focusedfocused on its explicit desiredesire for WMD,WMD, allegations ofof CBRN CBRN acquisition,acquisition, and the killing potentialpotential of of specific speCific CBRN CBRN agents, few open-source studies havehave closelyclosely examinedexamined thethe evolutionevolution of al-Qaeda's consideration of WMDWMD and,and, mostmost notably,notably, thethe meritmerit of of actual actual CBRN CBRN productionproduction instructionsinstructions asas depicteddepicted and disseminated inin the group's own literature and manuals. The following report will examineexamine the history ofof al-Qaeda's al-Qaeda's interest in CBRN agents, agents, the the evolution evolution ofof thethe network'snetwork's attitudeattitude toward thesethese weapons, andand the internal debatedebate within thethe organizationorganization concerningconcerning acquisitionacquisition and useuse of WMD.WMD. More so,50, thethe followingfollowing researchresearch willwill assessassess the validityvalidity ofof actual actual CBRN CBRN productionproduction instructionsinstructions and capabilitiescapabilities as displayeddisplayed and disseminateddisseminated inin al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's own literatureliterature andand websites.

KEYWORDS: Al-Qaeda;AI-Qaeda; ; WMD terrorism; Nuclear;Nuclear; Biological; Chemical; Radiological; CBRN; Terrorist Terrorist manuals;manuals; ;Uranium; Radium; Plague; ; Cyanide;Cyanide; HydrogenHydrogen sulfide; ; Botulinum toxin; CesiumCesium 137; RDD; DirtyDirty ; ; AbuAbu Musab - al Zarqawi; Nuclear preparation encyclopedia;encyclopedia; WMDWMD FatwaFatwa

The prospect of terrorists deployingdeploying weaponsweapons ofof mass mass destruction (WMD)(WMD) is the foremost danger to U.S.u.s. national security.security. During the 20042004 U.S.U.s. presidentialpresidential debates, thethe danger of WMD terrorism was one of the fewfew topicstopics onon whichwhich both both candidates candidates agreed.agreed. SinceSince the September 11, 2001 (9/11) attacks inin the UnitedUnited States,States, this danger hashas become moremore realisticrealistic because of al-Qaeda's expandingexpanding globalglobal network and itsits expressedexpressed willingness to kill thousands ofof civilians.civilians. InIn the pastpast four years,years, there have been numerous media reports concerning the group'sgroup's ongoingongoing questquest for for WMD WMD capabilities;capabilities; manymany reportsreports havehave detaileddetailed al-Qaedaal-Qaeda members'members' attemptsattempts toto manufacturemanufacture or obtainobtain certaincertain chemical,chemica/, biological,biological, radiological,radiological, andand nuclearnuclear (CBRN)(CBRN) agentsagents toto use as a weapon of massmass destruction againstagainst targetstargets inin thethe West West andand thethe Middle Middle East. East. YetYet thethe questionquestion remains: remains: DoesDoes al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's current WMD capability match its actualactual intent?

Nonproliferation Review,Review, Vol.Vol. 12,72, NoNo 3,3, NovemberNovember 20052005 ISSNISSN 1073-6700 print/lSSNprint/ISSN 1746-1766 oniine/05/03061online/05/030615-39 5-39 Routledge © 2005 2005 TheThe MontereyMonterey InstituteInstitute of of International International Studies, Studies, CenterCenter for NonproliferationNonproliferation StudiesStudies Taylor &Francis Croup DOI:DOl: 10.1080/1073670060060123610.1080/10736700600601236

ACLURM002136 616616 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMASALAMA ANDAND LYDIA HANSELL

WhileWhile mostmost studiesstudies of of thethe group have focused on its explicitexplicit desiredesire for WMD,WMD, allegationsallegations ofof CBRN acquisition, acquisition, and and the the killingkilling potential ofof specific specific CBRNCBRN agents, fewfew open-source studiesstudies havehave closely closely examined examined the the evolutionevolution of al-Qaeda's considerationconsideration ofof WMDWMD andand mostmost notably,notably, thethe merit of actual CBRN production production instructionsinstructions as depicteddepicted andand disseminateddisseminated in in thethe group'sgroup's own literature and manuals.manuals. YetYet monitoring and analysisanalysis ofof primary al-Qaedaal-Qaeda literature literature provides provides the the most most revealingrevealing window window intointo the actualactual motivations, goals, and capabilities of al-Qaeda.al-Qaeda. It is notnot thethe objective of this report toto examineexamine al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's abilityability and desiredesire toto targettarget chemical andand nuclear facilitiesfacilities withinwithin the .States. The prospect of such incidents is worthy of separateseparate andand lengthylengthy in-depth investigation and is beyond the scope ofof this particular research.research. Nor Nor is is it it the the intentintent of thisthis reportreport toto explore explore alleged alleged weaknessesweaknesses ofof certain American industriesindustries to to aa WMDWMD attack,attack, aa topictopic that hashas recently attracted much attention inin thethe U.S.U.S. news. ThisThis reportreport will examine the historyhistory ofof al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's interest in CBRN agents, agents, the the evolution evolution of of the the network's attitudeattitude toward thesethese weapons, and the internal debate within thethe organizationorganization concerningconcerning acquisitionacquisition andand useuse ofof WMD. WMD. More so, the following researchresearch will assessassess thethe validityvalidity of actual CBRN productionproduction instructionsinstructions and capabilities asas displayed andand disseminated in al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's own literature,literature, manuals,manuals, and websites. ThisThis sortsort ofof analysis on on issuesissues of of nonproliferation nonproliferation and international terrorism is not oftenoften coveredcovered inin open-sourceopen-source research.research.

What isis alal-Qaeda?-Qaeda?

AI-QaedaAl-Qaeda isis aa SunniSunni Salafi Salafi Jihadi Jihadi network network with with affiliatesaffiliates andand supporters spread all over the globe. The network formed its roots during thethe 1980s1980s when IslamistIslamist ideologues began to recruitrecruit fighters from the Muslim world toto oppose oppose thethe Soviet Soviet invasioninvasion ofof . In the years thatthat followed and up to today,today, al-Qaedaal-Qaeda has continuedcontinued to attract supporterssupporters around the world withwith itsits internationalinternational jihadistjihadist .ideology. TheThe group hashas gained much publicity in thethe pastpast decadedecade followingfollowing the the 1998 1998 U.S. U.S. embassy bombings inin KenyaKenya andand TanzaniaTanzania and the 9/11 attacksattacks on the WorldWorld TradeTrade Center and the Pentagon.Pentagon. Whereas al-Qaedaal-Qaeda is is often often envisioned envisioned as as a a well-definedwell-defined group, group, itit can be moremore accuratelyaccurately described asas aa looselyloosely affiliatedaffiliated networknetwork with veryvery littlelittle hierarchicalhierarchical structure.structure. The diffused nature of the groupgroup posesposes manymany obstaclesobstacles to intelligenceintelligence collectioncollection andand hashas resultedresulted inin myriadmyriad contradictorycontradictory andand sensationalistsensationalist accountsaccounts inin open-sourceopen-source literature.literature. ManyMany reportsreports concerningconcerning al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's capability to conduct futurefuture attacksattacks areare focusedfocused onon aa potentialpotential WMDWMD capability.capability. WhileWhile thethe use use of of CBRN CBRN agentsagents isis aa realreal security concern, the al-al­ QaedaQaeda network is more likely toto conduct future attacksattacks by utilizing conventionalconventional weaponsweapons inin unconventionalunconventional ways.ways. Al-QaedaAI-Qaeda aims to expel Westerners andand Muslims deemed "un-Islamic" from MuslimMuslim countriescountries and imposeimpose IslamicIslamic rule on countriescountries inin thethe Middle Middle East. East. TheThe group'sgroup's primaryprimary goalgoal duringduring thethe 1990s 1990s waswas toto forceforce U.S.U.s. militarymilitary andand civiliancivilian establishmentsestablishments out ofof Saudi .'Arabia.' SinceSince then,then, al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's objectiveobjective has expandedexpanded toto include thethe establishmentestablishment ofof a a worldwideworldwide IslamicIslamic community, based onon the concept of thethe ummaumma (global(global caliphate)?caliphate).2 CurrentCurrent al-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliates aim to replacereplace current,current, "corrupt""corrupt" Islamic Islamic regimesregimes andand secularsecular ArabArab regimesregimes with Shari'aShari'a IslamicIslamic lawlaw and to bringbring underunder controlcontrol thethe regionsregions of thethe worldworld

ACLURM002137 AL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 617 thatthat were once under Muslim rule.rule.3 A commonlycommonly cited, long-term goal is to undermineundermine Western hegemony by targetingtargeting U.S.U.S. alliesallies as well asas U.S.U.S. military establishmentsestablishments and civilian populations.populations.4 OsamaOsama bin Laden,Laden, the mostmost prominentprominent leaderleader ofof thethe al-Qaeda al-Qaeda network, hashas specifically identified thethe UnitedUnited StatesStates as the "great Satan"Satan" and has called forfor armed struggle against the country and itsits allies.allies.s5 The al-Qaeda networknetwork hashas historicallyhistorically supported supported three three different different kindskinds ofof militant groups: those who targettarget MuslimMuslim regimesregimes viewedviewed asas "apostates""apostates" (e.g.,(e.g., ,Egypt, SaudiSaudi Arabia); thosethose strugglingstruggling to createcreate their ownown Islamic Islamic statestate (e.g.,(e.g., ); andand thosethose whowho aim to overthrowoverthrow regimesregimes thatthat areare believedbelieved toto repressrepress theirtheir MuslimMuslim populationspopUlations (e.g.,(e.g., Indonesia, Kosovo)Kosovo).6 .8 Network affiliates and supporters are encouraged toto wage an armed , oror holyholy war,war, againstagainst allall enemiesenemies of .'Islam?

AI-QaedaAl-Qaeda AffiliatesAffiliates Worldwide

AI-Qaeda properproper is in essence the the 19981998 unionunion of bin Laden'sLaden's original al-Qaeda and Ayman aI-Zawahiri'sal-Zawahiri's branchbranch of the EgyptianEgyptian Islamic Jihad. ThisThis unionunion isis nownow known as Qa'idat al-al­ Jihad, althoughalthough the global networknetwork itselfitself is is stillstill oftenoften referred referred toto as as al-Qaeda. al-Qaeda. As a global movement, al-Qaeda affiliates affiliates include, include, but but areare notnot limitedlimited to, the followingfollowing SalafiSalafi Jihadi groups:

• Gama'a al-Islamiyya (Egypt) • Jihad Movement (Bangladesh)(Bangladesh) • Jamiat-ul-Ulema ()(Pakistan) • Jemaah Islamiyyah (Indonesia) • IslamicIslamic Army of AdenAden ()(Yemen) • Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (Libya)(Libya) • Salafist GroupGroup for PreachingPreaching & CombatCombat • al-Qaeda fi Jazirat al-Arabai-Arab (Saudi(Saudi Arabia) ()(Algeria) • Groupe Tunisien IslamiqueIslamique ()(Tunisia) • Usbat al-Ansar () • Ansar al-Islamai-Islam () • IslamicIslamic Movement of TurkistanTurkistan • aI-Tawhidal-Tawhid wal Jihad (or al-Qaeda in Iraq)Iraq) • Abu SayyafSayyaf Group (, ) • Eastern TurkistanTurkistan Liberation ()(China) • Jaish-e- (Kashmir)(Kashmir) • Moro Islamic Liberation Front (Philippines) • Lashkar-e-Taiba (Kashmir) • Harkat al- (Kashmir)(Kashmir) • Jama'at al-Fuqra (Kashmir)(Kashmir) • Groupe Islamique Combattant MarocainMarocain ()(Morocco)88

Abu HafsHafs al-Masriai-Masri BrigadeBrigade (al-Qaeda(al-Qaeda in ),Europe), Ansar al-Sunna (Iraq), andand the EasternEastern TurkistanTurkistan IslamicIslamic MovementMovement (ETIM)(ETIM) have have also also beenbeen identified as networknetwork affiliates.9 InIn additionaddition toto these these identifiable identifiable groups, groups, therethere areare numerousnumerous "freelance""freelance" al-al­ Qaeda affiliates inin Afghanistan,Afghanistan, Algeria,Algeria, Bosnia,Bosnia, Chechnya,Chechnya, ,Eritrea, ,Jordan, Kosovo,Kosovo, Pakistan,Pakistan, , Tajikistan,Tajikistan, and and Yemen.Yemen. AI-QaedaAl-Qaeda cells cells have have reportedly reportedly been disbanded inin ,Albania, France,France, Germany, Italy,Italy, ,Spain, ,Uganda, the the UnitedUnited Kingdom,Kingdom, andand thethe UnitedUnited States. CurrentCurrent reportsreports estimate that al-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliatesaffiliates operateoperate inin roughly 6565 countriescountries around the globe.globe.

ACLURM002138 618 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA SALAMA AND AND LYDIA LYDIA HANSELL HANSt:LL

Overview of Allegations Concerning al-Qaeda and WMD

The al-Qaeda network network posesposes a a significant significant WMD WMD terror threat, threat, notnot only because ofof the group's extensive resources, butbut also because ofof its expressed desiredesire toto use WMD against itsits enemies.enemies.lO1° There isis evidenceevidence that al-Qaedaal-Qaeda remains committed toto acquiringacquiring CBRNCBRN agents and has activelyactively pursuedpursued thethe materials required to weaponize suchsuch agents. Equally disconcerting isis thethe wealth of technicaltechnical information being disseminateddisseminated toto potentialpotential supporters outlining the stepssteps necessarynecessary toto produce both chemicalchemical andand biologicalbiological (CB)(CB) agents. There have been no reported casescases of al-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliates using weaponizedweaponized CBRNCBRN agents in a terroristterrorist attack. However,However, there there is is evidence evidence of of mUltiple multiple attemptsattempts to acquire and weaponize CBRN agents agents and and efforts efforts to to disseminatedisseminate technical technical information information toto supporters. The host of allegations regarding al-Qaedaal-Qaeda and CBRN agents agents ranges ranges from from thethe mid-mid-1990s1990s toto the presentpresent and mostlymostly consistsconsists of attempts byby al-Qaedaal-Qaeda cells or affiliatesaffiliates to acquireacquire biological agents, various toxic chemicals,chemicals, radiological material, and uranium.uranium. OtherOther allegations include plots to useuse biological andand chemicalchemical agents in a terror attackattack asas well as plans to attack nuclearnuclear facilities.lln The specific biologicalbiological and chemical agents reportedly pursuedpursued byby al-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliates are, respectively, anthraxanthrax bacteria,bacteria, botulinumbotulinum toxin, ricin,ricin, yersiniayersinia pestis,pestis, mustardmustard gas,gas, potassium cyanide, hydrogenhydrogen cyanide, hydrogenhydrogen sulfide,sulfide, sodiumsodium nitrate,nitrate, sodium peroxide, sodium oxide, , and VX. The majority ofof reportsreports involvinginvolving CBRNCBRN materialsm.aterials areare uncorroborated andand remainremain largelylargely speculative.speculative.

Chemical AgentsAgents

Most reportsreports concerningconcerning al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's chemical weapons (CW) efforts efforts statestate simplysimply thatthat there isis proof thatthat al-Qaedaal-Qaeda is interested in producing oror acquiringacquiring chemicalchemical weapons.weapons. Indeed,Indeed, thethe 11th11th volumevolume ofof al-Qaeda's al-Qaeda's Encyclopedia of Jihad discusses howhow toto construct chemical and biologicalbiological weaponsweapons (CBW).(CBW).1212 Additionally,Additionally, OsamaOsama bin Laden,Laden, himself, has stated thatthat acquiring weapons, including nuclear and chemical weapons, isis a MuslimMuslim "religious"religious duty."duty:,1313 InIn anan interviewinterview inin 20012001 withwith a a Pakistani Pakistani ,journalist, binbin LadenLaden claimed,claimed, "We"We havehave chemical and nuclear weapons asas aa deterrentdeterrent andand if America used them against us we reservereserve thethe right to useuse them."them.,,1414 TheThe majoritymajority ofof reports reports concerningconcerning al-Qaeda's al-Qaeda's chemicalchemical weapons capability indicate that the networknetwork hashas researchedresearched thethe production ofof chemicalchemical agents, but hashas not beenbeen ableable toto weaponizeweaponize suchsuch agents.agents. Most casescases involvinginvolving chemical substances entailentail thethe use of cyanide in experimentsexperiments onon animals.animals. One eyewitness account came fromfrom Ahmad Rassam,Rassam, who who pleadedpleaded guiltyguilty in 2001 to plottingplotting to to attack attack Los Los Angeles Angeles International International Airport.Airport. DuringDuring his his trial, trial, Rassam Rassam claimed that hehe hadhad witnessedwitnessed anan experiment inin whichwhich cyanidecyanide waswas usedused to gasgas a dog.15 IS ItIt isis unclearunclear how manymany experimentsexperiments have been conducted with cyanide,cyanide, butbut videotapesvideotapes allegedlyallegedly recordedrecorded byby al-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliates priorprior to 2001 show dogs being gassed with crude chemicals.chemicals. Experts have claimedclaimed thatthat the substance used was either a crude nerve agent or 16 hydrogenhydrogen cyanidecyanide gas.gas.16 OtherOther reportsreports claimclaim thatthat al-Qaeda al-Qaeda hadhad plannedplanned toto useuse cyanide,cyanide, sarin,sarin, or osmiumosmium tetroxide againstagainst large numbers of peoplepeople inin governmentgovernment buildings,buildings, 17 transportationtransportation hubs,hubs, andand shoppingshopping centerscenters in Britain,Britain, Jordan, andand thethe United States.States."

ACLURM002139 AL-QAEDA AND AND WMDWMD 619

There havehave been specific reportsreports ofof attempts to produceproduce oror acquireacquire cyanidecyanide compounds, as well as plotsplots to useuse cyanide in terrorist attacks.attacks. In 2002, British authoritiesauthorities arrested threethree menmen whowho were allegedly planningplanning toto use cyanidecyanide inin anan attack onon the subway system.system.18 AA seriesseries of reportsreports inin 20042004 indicatedindicated thatthat U.S.u.s. troopstroops in IraqIraq discovered three kilograms of cyanide at the home of an an al-Qaeda affiliate.19 There are also reports of attemptedattempted acquisitionacquisition ofof hydrogenhydrogen cyanide;cyanide; however,however, thisthis substancesubstance would have to be disseminated in a high concentration inin orderorder toto cause cause casualties.casualties. Additionally,Additionally, the gas emitsemits aa strongstrong odorodor of bitter almonds,almonds, thus increasingincreasing thethe chance thatthat victims may be able to evacuateevacuate thethe areaarea beforebefore thethe substance substance becomesbecomes lethallethal. 2200 Al-QaedaAI-Qaeda has also attempted toto procureprocure potassiumpotassium cyanide,cyanide, which can be used forfor cutaneous contaminationcontamination if mixed with thethe rightright chemicals. chemicals. However,However, sincesince thethe substancesubstance may appear wet or greasy, it isis likelylikely that anan individualindividual who hashas come intointo contactcontact withwith thethe substancesubstance would taketake notice andand wash the affectedaffected areaarea of skinskin immediately.immediately. ForFor thisthis reason,reason, potassium cyanide is unlikely toto causecause massmass casualties.casualties?l21 There are also indications that al-Qaedaal-Qaeda has pursued toxic industrialindustrial chemicals, suchsuch asas those those usedused in in a a foiled foiled attackattack onon governmentgovernment targetstargets in Jordan in April 2004.2004.

Biological AgentsAgents

The majority of allegationsallegations concerning al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's biologicalbiological endeavors mentionmention attemptsattempts to procureprocure andand weaponizeweaponize anthrax bacteria, botulinum toxin, and ricin.ricin.2222 ManyMany reportsreports have focused on the formerformer SovietSoviet UnionUnion (FSU)(FSU) as a source ofof these biological agents. In the mid-1990s,mid-1990s, bin LadenLaden associates allegedly allegedly attempted attempted toto "purchase""purchase" anthraxanthrax bacteriabacteria and yersinia pestispestis (plague) inin Kazakhstan.Kazakhstan.23 Some sources reported inin 19991999 that al-Qaedaal-Qaeda members obtained the EbolaEbola virus and salmonellasalmonella bacteria from countries of thethe FSU,FSU, anthrax bacteria from East Asia,Asia, and and botulinumbotulinum toxin fromfrom thethe Czech Czech Republic.Republic?424 InIn latelate 2001, U.s.U.S. officials officials in in Afghanistan Afghanistan reportedreported evidence indicating thatthat Russian Russian scientists were assisting al-Qaeda militants militants inin thethe weaponization of anthraxanthrax bacteria.bacteria?525 InIn 2001,2001, there were severalseveral indicationsindications thatthat al-Qaeda hadhad aa continuedcontinued interest in acquiring a biologicalbiological weaponweapon (BW)(BW) capability.capability. ForFor one,one, MohammadMohammad AttaAtta andand ZachariasZacharias Moussaoui expressed interestinterest inin cropcrop dusters prior to the 9/119/11 attacks.attacks?626 The samesame year, al-al­ Qaeda associate Ahmad Ahmad RassamRassam testified testified that that binbin Laden was interested in acquiringacquiring aircraft to disseminatedisseminate biologicalbiological agentsagents atat lowlow altitude.27altitude?' AlsoAlso inin 2001,2001, interrogations of two capturedcaptured militantsmilitants inin MalaysiaMalaysia ledled toto allegationsallegations thatthat al-Qaeda al-Qaeda affiliateaffiliate groupgroup JemaahJemaah IslamiyahIslamiyah was attemptingattempting to procureprocure andand weaponize biologicalbiological agents.agents?828 Around thethe samesame time, U.S.U.S. operatives reportedreported thatthat multiplemultiple residencesresidences inin Afghanistan,Afghanistan, including al-al­ Zawahiri's alleged residence inin , testedtested positive for tracestraces of anthraxanthrax bacteria.bacteria?929 The network wouldwould needneed significantsignificant technicaltechnical assistanceassistance to weaponizeweaponize biologicalbiological agents for useuse in a terrorist attack. Anthrax bacteriabacteria can be harmful ifif disperseddispersed in aerosolaerosol form, oror byby personalpersonal contact. While anthrax bacteriabacteria inin aerosolaerosol form isis lethal, it isis extremely difficult toto weaponizeweaponize BacillusBacillus anthracis spores so they maintain virulencevirulence andand areare easilyeasily dispersed. Spore sizesize is is crucial crucial to to successful successful deployment deployment ofthisof this agent.agent. BotulinumBotulinum toxin cancan bebe difficult toto procure procure throughthrough the the soil, soil, deterioratesdeteriorates quickly, quickly, and and is is veryvery difficultdifficult to to use use as as aa WMD. Yet it cancan bebe usedused effectivelyeffectively inin aerosolaerosol attacksattacks inin closed closed spacesspaces oror inin small-scalesmall-scale

ACLURM002140 620 SAMMY SALAMA AND LYDIALYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

poisonings.3D3° The biological toxin ricinricin cancan bebe extractedextracted fromfrom castorcastor beans,beans, and while deadly, itit is only suitable for targeted poisonings as itit is not contagious.

Radiological Materials

Although there isis strongstrong evidenceevidence to suggestsuggest that al-Qaedaal-Qaeda has attemptedattempted to procureprocure radiological material, therethere isis nono indication that thethe networknetwork hashas beenbeen successfulsuccessful inin this endeavor. AsAs withwith claims ofof chemical andand biological acquisition, many ofof the allegations surrounding al-Qaeda's procurementprocurement ofof radiological material focusfocus on Afghanistan and countries of the FSU.FSU. BritishBritish authoritiesauthorities claimedclaimed toto havehave discovereddiscovered documentsdocuments suggesting that the networknetwork hadhad constructedconstructed aa radiologicalradiological dispersion device,device, or or "dirty ","bomb," at an 31 unspecified location inin AfghanistanAfghanistan. 31 TheseThese reports have not beenbeen corroborated.corroborated. ManyMany allegations concerning al-Qaeda's pursuit pursuit ofof radiologicalradiological materialmaterial stemstem fromfrom interrogationsinterrogations of militantsmilitants arrestedarrested overover thethe pastpast several several years.years. In April 2001,2001, Bulgarian businessman Ivan Ivan Ivanov Ivanov reportedly reportedly told told authoritiesauthorities thatthat he had met binbin LadenLaden inin China,China, nearnear thethe PakistanPakistan border,border, toto discussdiscuss businessbusiness plans for an "environmental" companycompany toto purchasepurchase nuclearnuclear waste.waste.32 InIn AprilApril 2002,2002, anotheranother al-Qaedaal-Qaeda member, Abu Zubayda, claimedclaimed that that thethe networknetwork hadhad thethe knowledgeknowledge toto construct a dirty bomb and hintedhinted thatthat therethere maymay bebe suchsuch aa devicedevice hidden in thethe UnitedUnited States.States.33 A more well-publicized casecase occurred in May 2002 withwith the arrest of al-Qaeda affiliateaffiliate AbdullahAbdullah al­al- Muhajir (Jose(Jose Padilla) inin Chicago.Chicago. PadillaPadilla claimed claimed that that hehe waswas part part ofof an al-Qaeda plotplot to detonate a radiological dispersal device in the United States. HeHe had had reportedly reportedly attemptedattempted 34 to acquireacquire radiologicalradiological materialmaterial inin Canada.Canada.34 ReportsReports in early 2004 indicate thatthat al-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliate Midhat MursiMursi (Abu(Abu Khabab)Khabab) maymay havehave constructedconstructed aa radiologicalradiological dispersaldispersal device. 35 Mursi allegedly maintains links with al-Zawahiri.al-Zawahiri.35 BritishBritish officialsofficials arrested eighteight men in June 2004 after the discoverydiscovery ofof informationinformation onon , explosives, chemicals,chemicals, and radiologicalradiological materials and building plansplans ofof thethe NewNew YorkYork StockStock Exchange, thethe International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., the the Citigroup buildingbuilding in New York, andand thethe PrudentialPrudential buildingbuilding in NewNew Jersey.Jersey.3636 ReportsReports in latelate 20042004 suggest thatthat an al-Qaeda affiliateaffiliate byby thethe name of Walid al-Misri told investigators that binbin LadenLaden maymay havehave purchasedpurchased radiological material fromfrom contactscontacts inin Chechnya.Chechnya.37

Nuclear MaterialsMaterials

There are many exaggerated accounts ofof al-Qaeda procuring procuring bothboth radiological and in the form ofof anan "off-the-shelf""off-the-shelf' explosiveexplosive device.device.38 Reports inin 1998 indicatedindicated thatthat bin LadenLaden had plans to acquireacquire nuclearnuclear materialmaterial fromfrom ChechenChechen contactscontacts asas well as contacts 39 inin Kazakhstan.Kazakhstan.39 ReportsReports in 2000 allege that binbin LadenLaden sentsent associatesassociates toto acquire enriched uranium fromfrom unspecifiedunspecified Eastern Eastern EuropeanEuropean countriescountries. 44D0 There were also accounts in 20012001 and 20022002·that that binbin LadenLaden hadhad obtainedobtained enrichedenriched uraniumuranium rodsrods and/orand/or a a suitcase suitcase nuclearnuclear weapon fromfrom thethe Russian Russian mafiamafia asas wellwell asas aa Russian-madeRussian-made "suitcase nuke" from CentralCentral Asian sources.sources.41 AlsoAlso inin 2001,2001, reportsreports surfacedsurfaced thatthat PakistaniPakistani scientistsscientists hadhad sharedshared nuclear informationinformation withwith binbin Laden.Laden.4242 U.S.u.s. authoritiesauthorities have also stated that PakistaniPakistani businessmanbusinessman Saifullah Paracha gavegave al-QaedaaI-Qaeda associates associates information information on on where where toto obtain nuclearnuclear

ACLURM002141 AL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 621 weapons. AlthoughAlthough ParachaParacha later later denied denied the the allegations,allegations, he he admitted admitted to to meeting bin 43 Laden in 19991999 toto considerconsider aa potentialpotential business business dea1.deal.43 PakistaniPakistani journalistjournalist reported in 20042004 that al-Zawahirial-Zawahiri had claimed inin an interview thatthat thethe al-Qaedaal-Qaeda network had acquired nuclearnuclear weapons from CentralCentral Asia.Asia. The al-Qaedaal~Qaeda deputy leader allegedly told Mir thatthat affiliatesaffiliates hadhad traveledtraveled toto ","Moscow, ,Tashkent, [and][and] countriescountries inin CentralCentral Asia" with thethe intentintent toto purchase purchase "portable"portable nuclearnuclear material."material.,,4444 AI-Qaeda'sAl-Qaeda's interest interest in in pursuing nuclear weapons is made obvious by statementsstatements posted on websiteswebsites andand testimoniestestimonies fromfrom al-Qaedaal-Qaeda operatives.operatives. InIn 2001,2001, JamalJamal al-Fadiai-Fad I claimed that he was responsible forfor investigatinginvestigating thethe purchase ofof uranium toto be used in the construction ofof aa nuclearnuclear devicedevice inin thethe earlyearly 1990s.1990s.45 Reports surfaced inin 2004 thatthat al­al- Qaeda hadhad purchased nuclear devicesdevices fromfrom the UkraineUkraine inin 1998.1998. (Ukrainian(Ukrainian officialsofficials claimed that allall nuclearnuclear weaponsweapons fromfrom thethe FSU FSU hadhad beenbeen transferredtransferred toto Russia as of 1996, and that nono suchsuch transactiontransaction hadhad takentaken place.)place.)4646 There werewere alsoalso accountsaccounts ofof al-Qaeda al-Qaeda attempts to purchasepurchase uraniumuranium fromfrom RussiaRussia and GermanyGermany in 1998.1998.47 InIn 2002,2002, reportsreports indicated thatthat diagramsdiagrams ofof U.S.u.s. nuclear power plantsplants hadhad beenbeen discovereddiscovered inin al-Qaedaal-Qaeda facilities in Afghanistan."Afghanistan.48 InIn January January 2005,2005, GermanGerman authoritiesauthorities arrestedarrested suspectedsuspected al-al­ Qaeda membermember IbrahimIbrahim MuhammadMuhammad K.K. for for attemptingattempting to purchasepurchase roughly 48 grams of uranium inin SeptemberSeptember 2002.2002. Muhammad had allegedly approached an unspecified source 49 in LuxembourgLuxembourg to facilitatefacilitate thethe transaction."transaction. MoroccanMoroccan investigatorsinvestigators reportedlyreportedly un-un­ covered a plot by al-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliate group SalemSalafia Jihadia to attackattack aa French nuclear power plant atat CapCap dede lala Hague,Hague, Normandy. Al-QaedaAI-Qaeda membersmembers hadhad allegedlyallegedly been involvedinvolved in the plot.5°sO One major obstacle toto the acquisition of a "ready-made" device is political will; it is highly doubtful thatthat anyany regimeregime wouldwould transfertransfer suchsuch a device to this terrorist network for fear ofof discoverydiscovery andand subsequentsubsequent armed retributionretribution byby thethe United United States. States. ReportsReports regardingregarding nuclearnuclear weapons development are mostlymostly speculativespeCUlative andand highlyhighly sensational,sensational, although there have been numerous reportsreports ofof attemptsattempts to acquire uranium on multiple occasions.51s1 AllAll availableavailable reportsreports suggestsuggest that al-Qaedaal-Qaeda has yetyet to acquireacquire thethe requisiterequisite amount ofof fissilefissile material to constructconstruct aa nuclearnuclear device. Equally important,important, it appearsappears that the networknetwork lacks lacks the technicaltechnical capabilitycapability toto assemble assemble aa nuclearnuclear devicedevice-even even if it were to obtain manymany ofof thethe neededneeded materials.materials. The group wouldwould needneed significantsignificant technicaltechnical assistanceassistance from nuclearnuclear scientistsscientists in order to manufacturemanufacture aa nuclearnuclear weapon. Of particular concern is the allegation that aa small number ofof PakistaniPakistani nuclear scientists havehave hadhad contact with al-Qaedaal-Qaeda over·over the pastpast decade. Specific reportsreports allegeallege thatthat two PakistaniPakistani scientistsscientists transferredtransferred nuclearnuclear weapon informationinformation toto OsamaOsama bin LadenLaden in thethe mid-tomid-to latelate 19905.1990s.52 IfIf thesethese allegationsallegations are true, such assistance couldcould increase al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's nuclear nuclear potential potential significantly.

Recent CasesCases InvolvingInvolving CBRNCBRN Agents RicinRicin PlotsPlots in LondonLondon

On January 5, 2003, sixsix menmen were arrested in Wood Green, North London,London, andand chargedcharged with attemptingattempting toto "develop"develop oror produce produce aa chemical ."weapon."S353 TheThe sixsix menmen werewere

ACLURM002142 622 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA SALAMA AND AND LYDIA LYDIA HANSELL HANSELL

identified asas Arab men from AlgeriaAlgeria or other NorthNorth AfricanAfrican countries.countries. Three days afterafter thethe arrests, aa seventhseventh manman waswas detaineddetained in connectionconnection with thethe case.case. BritishBritish authoritiesauthorities reported thatthat atat leastleast oneone ofof the the suspectssuspects hadhad trained inin anan al-Qaedaal-Qaeda campcamp inin Afghanistan, while the othersothers maymay havehave participated inin terroristterrorist trainingtraining exercises exercises in Chechnya and thethe Pankisi GorgeGorge area of Georgia.Georgia.54 TheThe casecase quicklyquickly becamebecame world newsnews afterafter BritishBritish authorities reported the discoverydiscovery ofof castorcastor beans,beans, equipment to processprocess the beans,beans, and traces ofof ricin in the apartmentapartment sharedshared byby thethe originaloriginal sixsix suspects.suspects.55 Subsequent reports reports indicated indicated that that the the menmen implicatedimplicated in in thethe ricinricin plotplot did indeed maintain connections toto the al-Qaedaal-Qaeda network and that OsamaOsama bin LadenLaden had beenbeen directing a number of terrorist cells throughout Europe thatthat were intentintent on producing poison to bebe usedused inin terroristterrorist attacks.attacks. DespiteDespite these numerous allegations, thethe naturenature of the London ricin plot remainedremained in question. On April 13,13, 2005, aa London juryjury acquitted four ofof thethe suspectssuspects in thethe ricinricin case.case. Information presented inin the trial ledled to thethe conclusionconclusion thatthat therethere hadhad beenbeen no tracestraces of ricin discovered inin thethe London apartment. While field equipment usedused by chemical experts did test positive for ricin,ricin, subsequent laboratorylaboratory teststests revealed that the reading had been a false positive.positive.56 Furthermore,Furthermore, itit appearedappeared that thethe five-pagefive-page documentdocument of crudecrude instructions onon how to produceproduce ricin,ricin, cyanide,cyanide, and botulinum toxin hadhad beenbeen copiedcopied from thethe Internet,Internet, asas opposed toto havinghaving been taken fromfrom a in Afghanistan, as previously suspected. SubsequentSubsequent investigationsinvestigations revealedrevealed that that thethe lists ofof chemical instructions discovered in thethe London apartment were direct translations from an InternetInternet sitesite maintainedmaintained inin PaloPalo Alto,Alto, California.California.57 The only suspect convicted inin thethe trialtrial was was KamelKamel Bourgess,Bourgess, an Algerian who waswas already servingserving timetime inin prison forfor the murder of a British constableconstable inin connectionconnection withwith the 58 case. Reports indicateindicate thatthat Bourgess had had plannedplanned to to smear aa ricinricin mixturemixture on door handles inin orderorder toto causecause casualtiescasualties in NorthNorth London.London.59 However,However, it appearedappeared thatthat Bourgess was was far far from from beingbeing ableable toto carry outout the attack, givengiven thethe crude attempts to produce the poison.poison. EvenEven if he had successfullysuccessfully producedproduced ricin, thethe substance wouldwould not be anan appropriateappropriate agentagent toto cause cause massmass casualties.casualties. Since ricinricin isis aa biological toxin asas opposed to aa bacteriabacteria or virus, it isis notnot contagiouscontagious andand cannotcannot spreadspread rapidly betweenbetween individuals.individuals. The surestsurest wayway toto induceinduce fatalitiesfatalities isis toto encourage inhalationinhalation oror ingestioningestion of the substancesubstance in a powder formform oror afterafter itit is is dissolveddissolved inin aa liquid.liquid. RicinRicin isis not cutaneously active.

Ansar aI-Islamal-Islam in Northern IraqIraq

Ansar ai-Islamal-Islam originatedoriginated inin Kurdish northernnorthern Iraq and is one of the mostmost activeactive IslamistIsla mist groups operating in IraqIraq sincesince well beforebefore thethe 20032003 coalitioncoalition invasion.invasion. The group isis significantSignificant in that itit isis anan al-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliate thatthat has engagedengaged in in thethe productionproduction ofof both biological and chemicalchemical agents, purportedly forfor useuse asas terroristterrorist weapons.weapons. Most reportsreports indicateindicate thatthat AnsarAnsar has worked with bothboth cyanide cyanide andand ricin;ricin; however,however, therethere isis no evidenceevidence toto indicateindicate thatthat the the group group ever ever reached reached aa stage stage ofof weaponization. weaponization. Accordingly,Accordingly, itit appearsappears thatthat thethe group'sgroup's limitedlimited arsenalarsenal wouldwould havehave onlyonly beenbeen usefuluseful forfor targetedtargeted attacksattacks or assassinations and and thus thus that that itit diddid not constituteconstitute aa truetrue WMDWMD capability.capability.

ACLURM002143 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 623

AvailableAvailable reportsreports indicateindicate thatthat Ansar ai-Islamal-Islam hadhad acquired acquired cyanidecyanide overover thethe pastpast fewfew years,years, as as well well as as a asmall small amount amount of of ricin, ricin, but but they they are are unable unable to to confirm confirm thethe preciseprecise amount amount 60 ofof each substancesubstance oror thethe degreedegree toto which the substancessubstances had been weaponized. 6° Some reportsreports indicateindicate thatthat Ansar's crudecrude chemicalchemical weapons weapons capability capability included included a a form form ofof "cyanide"cyanide cream"cream" thatthat "kills"kills on contact."contact.,,6161 OtherOther reportsreports simply state that AnsarAnsar was inin possession of of "cyanide," "cyanide," without without specifyingspecifying storagestorage details details or or any any other other information information thatthat wouldwould indicate what type ofof cyanidecyanide was being used. Still other reports claim that AnsarAnsar had produced or acquiredacquired ricin and hadhad 62 conducted biological warfare experiments.62 One reportreport even alleged that Ansar acquired 63 a quantity of VX smuggled throughthrough Turkey inin the fall of 2001.63 While there isis proofproof thatthat Ansar diddid acquireacquire CBCB agents, agents, technical technical details details outlining outlining the the group's group's involvement involvement withwith such agents remain vaguevague andand moderately consistentconsistent atat best. InvestigationsInvestigations ofof thethe laboratory discovered inin northernnorthern Iraq revealedrevealed that that itit waswas rudimentaryrudimentary andand thatthat the group was far from achieving a real weapons capability.54capability.64 Ansar members claimedclaimed toto have produced ricin, cyanide-based toxics, andand aflatoxin 65 prior to thethe U.S.-ledU.S.-led invasion of Iraq in MarchMarch 2003.2003.65 Officials fromfrom thethe Patriotic Union ofof Kurdistan (PUK) corroborated corroborated thesethese reports, reports, stating stating thatthat AnsarAnsar membersmembers areare trainedtrained inin thethe production of poisonspoisons inin "encampments""encampments" inin northernnorthern Iraq.Iraq. InvestigationsInvestigations byby PUKPUK andand coalition officialsofficials later revealedrevealed a makeshift laboratory that contained tracestraces of ricin,ricin, as well as equipment suchsuch asas surgicalsurgical masks,masks, latex gloves, and beakers.beakers. After the invasion,invasion, coalition forces also reportedlyreportedly uncoVereduncovered aa "three-volume "three-volume manual"manual" thatthat outlined stepssteps for conducting chemicalchemical andand biologicalbiological experiments.experiments. SpecificsSpecifics on the use of cyanide and ricin 66 were included in thethe manual.manual.66 TheThe groupgroup hadhad allegedlyallegedly testedtested bothboth substancessubstances in 57 preparation for future use,use, including experimentsexperiments on livelive animals.animals.62 Ansar's choicechoice ofof ricin and cyanide, asas wellwell asas the the group'sgroup's failurefailure to weaponize the agents or developdevelop adequateadequate deliverydelivery systems,systems, indicatesindicates thatthat militants maymay havehave beenbeen planning toto conductconduct only only limited limited attacks attacks and/or and/or assassinations. assassinations. Both ricinricin andand cyanidecyanide areare reasonablereasonable choices forfor aa groupgroup thatthat is planning to conduct aa targetedtargeted attackattack becausebecause they are easiereasier substances to to manipulatemanipulate than than somesome of of their more virulentvirulent oror unstableunstable counterparts. In addition, since veryvery littlelittle would be neededneeded for aa limitedlimited attack,attack, itit makes makes sensesense to choose agents that are easy toto acquire and/or produce.produce. RicinRicin isis one of thethe easiereasier biologicalbiological toxins to produce,produce, whilewhile cyanidecyanide is a chemicalchemical that can bebe acquiredacquired from anan industrialindustrial complex.complex. However,However, despite thethe deadlydeadly naturenature ofof these these substances,substances, neitherneither cancan bebe appropriatelyappropriately labeledlabeled asas aa weaponweapon ofof massmass destruction.destruction. DifficultiesDifficulties in weaponizationweaponization meanmean thatthat suchsuch substancessubstances are suitable onlyonly forfor targetedtargeted assassinations, assassinations, as opposed to massmass casualty attacks.attacks.

ExperimentsExperiments in AfghanistanAfghanistan

NumerousNumerous reports sincesince the U.S.-ledU.S.-led invasion of AfghanistanAfghanistan in OctoberOctober 20012001 havehave indicatedindicated thatthat al-Qaedaal-Qaeda waswas involvedinvolved inin testingtesting CBCB agentsagents inin makeshift makeshift laboratories laboratories throughoutthroughout Afghanistan.Afghanistan. However, despitedespite evidenceevidence pointingpointing to attemptsattempts atat CBWCBW production,production, itit appearsappears thatthat thatthat network network was was unableunable toto weaponize weaponize CBCB agentsagents forfor useuse inin anan attack.attack. LocalLocal Afghan sourcessources reported in 19991999 that binbin LadenLaden waswas using a laboratory inin

ACLURM002144 624624 SAMMY SALAMA AND LYDIALYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

58 Charassiab, south south of of Kabul,Kabul, to to produceproduce chemical weapons. 68 The same year, U.S.U.s. sources reported thatthat binbin LadenLaden hadhad establishedestablished crudecrude facilitiesfacilities inin KhostKhost andand ,Jalalabad, 69 Afghanistan, in in orderorder toto test andand produceproduce chemicalchemical andand biologicalbiological weapons.weapons. 69 InIn early 2002, AmericanAmerican troopstroops nearnear KandaharKandahar reported reported the the discoverydiscovery ofof anan abandoned abandoned facility facility thatthat appeared toto have beenbeen builtbuilt to research/weaponize biologicalbiological agents?Oagents." TracesTraces of ricin and production instructions werewere alsoalso reportedly discovereddiscovered in anan al-Qaedaal-Qaeda safesafe house.71house!' U.S.U.s. investigators claimed thatthat they uncovered laboratorylaboratory equipmentequipment in in a a house house nearnear KandaharKandahar thatthat would supportsupport "a"a veryvery limitedlimited productionproduction ofof biological biological andand chemicalchemical agents."agents.,,7272 AI-QaedaAl-Qaeda affiliatesaffiliates inin AfghanistanAfghanistan havehave reportedlyreportedly researched howhow toto use mustard agent and cyanidecyanide asas weaponsweapons ofof massmass destruction.destruction?373 ConfiscatedConfiscated documentsdocuments alsoalso reportedly showedshowed al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's interestinterest in producing sarin,sarin, mustard, and VX.VX?474 Reports fromfrom the late 1990s indicateindicate thatthat thethe network attempted to createcreate a pesticide/nerve agentagent withwith a very high absorption rate and thatthat thethe substancesubstance was tested on dogs and rabbits.rabbits?575 Indeed, there is evidenceevidence to suggestsuggest thatthat al-Qaedaal-Qaeda hashas conductedconducted experimentsexperiments using crude chemical agents, somesome of of whichwhich includedincluded the use of cyanide.cyanide. OneOne of of thethe mostmost tellingtelling pieces ofof evidence isis aa training video uncovered byby investigators in in whichwhich aa dog is enclosed in a box and killed with aa chemicalchemical substancesubstance believed to includeinclude cyanide.cyanide. Yet despite the myriadmyriad reportsreports citingciting al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's efforts at chemical and biological weapons production,production, allall available evidenceevidence shows shows that that the the networknetwork workedworked onlyonly withwith crude chemicals andand was farfar fromfrom a true weaponsweapons capability.capability. ForFor one,one, investigators havehave not reportedreported thethe discoverydiscovery ofof any any kindkind ofof dispersal dispersal device,device, a main requirement for the useuse of a chemical or biological agent for weaponsweapons purposes.purposes. Additionally, searching an al-Qaedaal-Qaeda camp in ,Khost, AfghanistanAfghanistan discovereddiscovered stacks of photocopiedphotocopied manualsmanuals dealing with CBCB agents thatthat were downloaded from the websites of American right-wing groups.groupS.7576 This lacklack ofof technicaltechnical equipmentequipment and expertise isis notnot indicativeindicative ofof a groupgroup that poses an immediate WMD threat.

Evolution of al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's Attitude towardtoward WeaponsWeapons of MassMass Destruction

WMD acquisition has beenbeen aa recurring themetheme in bin Laden'sLaden's rhetoric—obviousrhetoric-obvious in hishis steady claims thatthat the Muslim world shouldshould achieveachieve military parityparity withwith non-Muslims.non-Muslims. On May 11,11,1998, 1998, justjust three days following 'sIndia's nuclearnuclear tests,tests, OsamaOsama bin LadenLaden stated, "We call upon thethe MuslimMuslim nationnation andand Pakistan—itsPakistan-its army in particular—toparticular-to prepareprepare for the jihad.jihad. ThisThis should includeinclude aa nuclearnuclear force."force.',n77 MoreMore thanthan aa yearyear later,later, inin referencereference toto thethe acquisition ofof weapons weapons ofof mass mass destruction inin DecemberDecember ofof 1999, 1999, binbin LadenLaden told PakistaniPakistani journalistjournalist RahimullahRahimullah Yusufzai, "Acquiring "Acquiring weaponsweapons for for thethe defense of MuslimsMuslims isis aa religiousreligiOUS duty. IfIf II indeedindeed havehave acquired these weapons I am carryingcarrying outout a duty.duty. It would bebe a sin for Muslims not to trytry andand possesspossess weaponsweapons thatthat wouldwould prevent the infidels from inflictinginflicting harmharm onon Muslims."Muslims.,,7878

InitialInitial Interest Interest

OsamaOsama bin Laden's initialinitial interest in WMD production likelylikely beganbegan aroundaround 19941994 during hishis staystay inin .Sudan. During that time,time, binbin Laden Laden becamebecame increasinglyincreasingly militantmilitant andand showedshowed

ACLURM002145 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 625 interestinterest in the acquisitionacquisition ofof CBRN CBRN agents. His researchresearch into into chemicalchemical weaponsweapons beganbegan inin a laboratorylaboratory inin and was supported by elements of the rulingruling NationalNational IslamicIslamic Front (NIF) andand thethe SudaneseSudanese military?9 military/9 Furthermore, itit was reportedreported thatthat bin Laden hired an Egyptian nuclear scientistscientist andand waswas able able to to purchase one one kilogramkilogram ofof uranium fromfrom South AfricaAfrica. 8800 Subsequently,Subsequently, anan AmericanAmerican official reported,reported, "Osama"Osama [was] directlydirectly involvinginvolving himself with thethe SudaneseSudanese government,government, tryingtrying toto get it toto testtest poisonouspoisonous gasesgases in case theythey could be triedtried againstagainst U.S.U.s. troops inin SaudiSaudi Arabia."Arabia.',8181 Some ofof binbin Laden'sLaden's growing militancy may have been a resultresult ofof personalpersonal difficulties during thisthis time.time. InIn FebruaryFebruary 1994,1994, the Saudi Arabian government revoked his Saudi citizenshipcitizenship and froze his financial assets asas aa reactionreaction toto his aggressive andand overt criticism of thethe monarchy.monarchy. LaterLater that year,year, thethe SaudisSaudis also inducedinduced his older brother, Bakr,Bakr, to denounce andand condemn OsamaOsama on behalf of the . More significantly, itit is believedbelieved thatthat inin FebruaryFebruary 1994,1994, OsamaOsama was the targettarget ofof two two failed failed assassination assassination attempts. The first failed attempt waswas carriedcarried out byby thethe SaudiSaudi intelligenceintelligence services,services, while the second was conducted by al-Khulayfi,al-Khulayfi,. an angryangry membermember ofof thethe Egyptian IslamistIslamist groupgroup al-Takfir Wal Hijra. AA failed assassination attemptattempt was also made in Khartoum'sKhartoum's central 82 market on thethe lifelife ofof Osama's Osama's eldest son, Abdullah.82 These eventsevents maymay havehave contributedcontributed to binbin Laden'sLaden's determinationdetermination toto carry carry outout mass mass casualtycasualty attacksattacks onon hishis enemies.enemies.

InternalInternal Debate within alal-Qaeda-Qaeda Concerning WMDWMD Acquisition

Subsequent to thethe formalformal unionunion of of Osama Osama binbin Laden's Laden's al-Qaedaal-Qaeda andand AymanAyman al-Zawahiri'sal-Zawahiri's branch of thethe EgyptianEgyptian IslamicIslamic JihadJihad inin AfghanistanAfghanistan onon FebruaryFebruary 23,23, 1998,1998, whichwhich established 'The"The World Islamic Front for JihadJihad AgainstAgainst thethe JewsJews andand Crusaders,"Crusaders," a new 83 and more dangerous al-Qaeda transnationaltransnational organization emerged.83 Following this union, a series of meetings took placeplace withinwithin al-Qaeda's al-Qaeda's rulingruling body,body, MajlisMajlis al-Shura,al-Shura, concerning the acquisitionacquisition ofof aa WMDWMD capability.capability. AtAt thisthis time,time, the the organization's organization's leadersleaders werewere concerned aboutabout an an all-outall-out American American assault assault onon AfghanistanAfghanistan duedue to to a a perceived perceived U.S. U.s. desire toto controlcontrol Central Central AsiaAsia oror inin retaliationretaliation for for al-Qaeda al-Qaeda attacksattacks againstagainst WesternWestern targets.targets. The al-al­ Qaeda hierarchy was especially concernedconcerned with with the prospectsprospects ofof AmericanAmerican WMDWMD deployment to to win win the the war war in in Afghanistan. Afghanistan. It It appears appears thatthat initially, initially, the the al-Qaeda al-Qaeda leadershipleadership wanted toto achieveachieve WMDWMD capability not asas a first-strike option, but asas aa deterrentdeterrent againstagainst U.S.U.s. military might andand aa counterbalance counterbalance against against AmericanAmerican andand IsraeliIsraeli WMDWMD arsenals.arsenals. In thesethese meetings within binbin Laden'sLaden's innerinner circle,circle, membersmembers repeatedlyrepeatedly raised thethe followingfollowing questions: "Who"Who will protect thethe ArabArab MujahideenMujahideen in their lastlast abode on the face of the earth? How are they to be protected? Who is going to protect thethe people,people, thethe states,states, the wealth andand thethe Islam Islam ofof Central Central Asia,Asia, whowho have have scarcelyscarcely escapedescaped the assaultassault of thethe 'Red'Red Satan',Satan', only to faceface aa moremore sinistersinister attackattack fromfrom WashingtonWashington andand TelTel Aviv?"Aviv?,,8484 InsideInside MajlisMajlis al-Shura,al-Shura, the hawkshawks frequentlyfrequently asked,asked,

WhoWho wouldwould protectprotect the the Muslims Muslims from from them them [the [the United United States States and and ]? Israel]? IsIs it the UNUN oror thethe SecuritySecurity Council?Council? Or isis it America'sAmerica's friendsfriends andand alliesallies among thethe ArabArab regimes?regimes? WhatWhat ifif Israel Israel decided to useuse atomic ,bombs, chemicalchemical or biologicalbiological weaponsweapons againstagainst anan ArabArab oror MuslimMuslim capital?capital? What if AmericaAmerica decided in the nearnear future toto laylay siegesiege onon Afghanistan,Afghanistan,

ACLURM002146 626 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA SALAMA AND AND LYDIA LYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

withwith its dirty bombsbombs andand lethallethal weaponry?weaponry? AndAnd what would be the IslamicIslamic reaction ifif AfghaniAfghani citiescities were were targeted targeted from from AmericaAmerica or or Israel Israel with with Atomic Atomic bombs?85 bombs?'

As a resultresult ofof these internal discussionsdiscussions within MajlisMajlis al-Shura,al-Shura, the leadershipleadership of al-Qaedaal-Qaeda decided toto pursue a very ambitious strategy. ItsIts ultimateultimate goalgoal was toto obtainobtain atomicatomic weapons andand storestore themthem on American soil to retaliateretaliate immediatelyimmediately forfor prospectiveprospective U.S.U.S. aggression againstagainst AfghanistanAfghanistan oror otherother MuslimMuslim lands. InIn addition,addition, althoughalthough it wasWaS clear toto thethe al-Qaeda leadersleaders that that any any WMD WMD they they could could obtainobtain wouldwould be inferior toto thethe existingexisting U.S.U.S. arsenal, they they mademade thethe decision thatthat the acquisitionacquisition ofof nuclear,nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons wouldwould be aa priority for their organization.organization.86 Within al-Qaeda's ruling ruling body,body, variousvarious factions factions voiced voiced different different attitudesattitudes towardtoward thethe value of the group'sgroup's prospectiveprospective possessionpossession of WMD. Some believedbelieved thatthat WMD are no more than an empty threat, a "Jinni in aa jar," that nono rationalrational leadershipleadership would everever use.use. Others arguedargued thatthat any WMDWMD thethe network was ableable toto acquire wouldwould not constitute a strategic weapon, butbut a purelypurely tactical weapon,weapon, becausebecause ofof its likely modestmodest destructivedestructive power and primitive qualities. A third factionfaction arguedargued that "weapons"weapons ofof massmass destruction would considerably enhance thethe fightingfighting capability and moral influence of the Mujahideen and the fighters ofof al-Qaeda. al-Qaeda. They areare inin diredire need ofof suchsuch weaponsweapons toto compensate forfor the vulnerability ofof their militarymilitary ordnance,ordnance, the insufficiencyinsufficiency ofof their numbersnumbers and their u8 growing isolationisolation from theirtheir peoples."peoples. 87? SeveralSeveral al-Qaeda leaders also envisioned WMD paired with suicidesuicide attacks toto maximize their effect. Despite theirtheir differences, the the oneone pointpoint on which thethe variousvarious factions within al-al­ Qaeda's MajlisMajlis al-Shuraal-Shura unanimously unanimously agreed agreed was was their their viewview that the UnitedUnited StatesStates waswas aa ferocious enemy but a dishonorable adversary. ItIt wouldwould not hesitatehesitate toto annihilateannihilate aa weaker opponent butbut would would retreat retreat in in disarray disarray ifif faced faced withwith a a strongerstronger enemy.enemy. To that end,end, the al-al­ Qaeda leadershipleadership agreed agreed to to continuecontinue toto referrefer toto CBRNCBRN agents despite their limitedlimited operational benefit asas weapons of mass destructiondestruction inin order to sow fear and terror in the mindsminds of theirtheir enemiesenemies and to "bestow"bestow somesome credibilitycredibility onon thethe Mujahideen, Mujahideen, andand maybemaybe some respect, moralmoral influenceinfluence andand anan aura aura of of invincibilityinvincibility inin thethe minds of the people."people.',8888

CurrentCurrent Role ofof WMOWMD in alal-Qaeda's-Qaeda's StrategyStrategy

Since the latelate 1990s,1990s, changing realities in thethe MiddleMiddle EastEast havehave correspondedcorresponded with changes in al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's attitudeattitude toward thethe role role of of WMD. WMD. Since Since al-Qaeda's al-Qaeda's leadershipleadership decided to pursuepursue WMDWMD primarilyprimarily asas aa deterrentdeterrent andand defensivedefensive weaponweapon againstagainst possiblepossible U.S.U.S. aggressionaggression andand WMDWMD deployment deployment in Afghanistan and other MuslimMuslim andand ArabArab lands,lands, variousvarious events have occurred that indicateindicate al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's WMD policy hashas evolvedevolved from defensivedefensive to offensive. TheThe group is in factfact aimingaiming toto use use WMD WMD asas aa first-strikefirst-strike weaponweapon againstagainst the UnitedUnited StatesStates and its allies. In 2001, followingfollowing the 9/119/11 attacksattacks that killedkilled roughlyroughly 3,0003,000 American andand other citizens,citizens, the UnitedUnited StatesStates andand itsits alliesallies invadedinvaded AfghanistanAfghanistan andand denieddenied al-Qaedaal-Qaeda its "last abode onon thethe faceface ofof thethe earth." earth." Recently, Recently, manymany seniorsenior membersmembers of al-Qaedaal-Qaeda have been killed or captured,captured, andand binbin LadenLaden andand al-Zawahirial-Zawahiri areare onon thethe run.run. InIn addition, addition, al-Qaeda al-Qaeda hashas evolvedevolved fromfrom anan organizationorganization into aa decentralized,decentralized, global movement mademade up ofof independentindependent cellscells andand internationalinternational affiliatesaffiliates

ACLURM002147 AL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 627 who adhere to al-Qaeda's doctrine doctrine andand global global visionvision butbut areare notnot directly subordinate toto the commands of the parentparent organization. Additionally, thethe U.S.-ledU.s.-led occupationoccupation of Afghanistan and Iraq has changedchanged thethe reality of thethe region;region; al-Qaedaal-Qaeda is nono longerlonger anticipatinganticipating and preparingpreparing for aa full-blownfull-blown confrontation with thethe UnitedUnited States.States. At this point,point, al-Qaedaal-Qaeda isis inin thethe midst of a conflict, which it aimsaims toto expandexpand andand intensifyintensify byby inducinginducing thethe UnitedUnited StatesStates to actact moremore aggressively in in thethe region in thethe hopeshopes ofof escalatingescalating MuslimMuslim antagonismantagonism toward the West and increasingincreasing the appeal—andappeal-and membership—ofmembership-of globalglobal jihadijihadi organizations.organizations. The al-Qaeda leadershipleadership anticipates anticipates that that new new recruits recruits will will swellswell thethe ranksranks of thesethese jihadi affiliatesaffiliates and undermineundermine the securitysecurity and rulerule ofof secularsecular oror moderatemoderate MuslimMuslim regimes (e.g.,(e.g., Egypt, ,Syria, Jordan, Pakistan, SaudiSaudi Arabia, Morocco, and Libya).Libya). The ultimate goal,goal, asas has been the case sincesince thethe conceptionconception of al-Qaeda, isis the the overthrowoverthrow ofof these regimes.regimes. Moreover, attacking AmericanAmerican andand otherother Western Western targetstargets isis seenseen byby al-Qaedaal-Qaeda as the most effective strategy to drive a wedgewedge betweenbetween thethe UnitedUnited StatesStates and its ArabArab and Muslim allies.89 Furthermore, inin light of thethe openopen conflictconflict currentlycurrently underunder way betweenbetween al-al­ Qaeda andand the UnitedUnited States,States, coupledcoupled withwith thethe WesternWestern occupation ofof IraqIraq andand Afghanistan, al-Qaedaal-Qaeda leaders leaders see see WMD WMD attacks attacks agaInst against the the UnitedUnited States andand the resulting mass casualtiescasualties as as legitimate legitimate means means of of retribution retribution forfor currentcurrent and past killings ofof Muslims in these countries. Bin Laden made thisthis sentiment clear in November 2002 when he stated: "This is anan unfair division. TheThe timetime has comecome forfor us toto be equal ... JustJust asas you kill, you are killed. Just as youyou bombard, you are bombarded. Rejoice atat thethe harm coming to you."yoU.',909° Al-Qaeda'sAI-Qaeda's assessment assessment of of the the utility utility ofof a WMD capability has evolved fromfrom the notion ofof a a defensivedefensive tool designeddesigned to deterdeter anan AmericanAmerican attack on Afghanistan and other Muslim areas, toto aa first-strikefirst-strike weaponweapon thatthat should be deployed against the UnitedUnited StatesStates in retribution for pastpast andand presentpresent killingkilling ofof Muslims.Muslims. TheThe hopehope isis thatthat thisthis first-strikefirst-strike capability would alsoalso bringbring aboutabout aa severesevere AmericanAmerican reprisal thatthat would only serveserve to garner more support for IslamistsIslamists in the MuslimMuslim world.world. Accordingly,Accordingly, the leadershipleadership of al-al­ Qaeda has recentlyrecently obtainedobtained religious justificationjustification from a Muslim scholar toto permit WMD use against the United States.States. In May 2003, binbin Laden likelylikely promptedprompted the respectedrespected and well-known youngyoung Saudi Saudi IslamicIslamic scholarscholar ShaykhShaykh NasirNasir binbin HamidHamid al-Fandal-Fahd toto issueissue aa fatwafatwa (religious(religious decree) inin support ofof suchsuch actions.actions. InIn hishis 25-page2S-page document, "A Treatise on the Legal Status of UsingUsing WeaponsWeapons ofof Mass Mass DestructionDestruction AgainstAgainst Infidels,"Infidels," ShaykhShaykh al-Fandal-Fahd empowered al-Qaeda withwith a fatwa and provided the religiousreligious justification neededneeded to carrycarry out suchsuch anan attack.attack. InIn his document ShaykhShaykh al-Fandal-Fahd argued, "This"This mattermatter is soso obviousobvious toto Muslims thatthat it needs no demonstration ...... Anyone Anyone who who considers considers America's America's aggression aggression againstagainst MuslimsMuslims and their landslands during thethe pastpast decadesdecades ... willwill concludeconclude thatthat strikingstriking herher is is permissiblepermissible merely on thethe rulerule ofof treating treating as as oneone has has beenbeen treated.treated. SomeSome brothers have totaled the numbernumber ofof MuslimsMuslims killed directly or indirectly byby theirtheir weaponsweapons and come up with a figure of nearlynearly 10 million."million.,,9191 Shaykh al-FahdaI-Fand alsoalso arguedargued inin his treatisetreatise thatthat in a state of jihad against infidels, the massmass killing of AmericanAmerican civilianscivilians isis also permissible. He stated,stated, "Thus"Thus thethe situation in this

ACLURM002148 628 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA SALAMA AND AND LYDIA LYDIA HANSELL HANSELL

regard isis thatthat ifif thosethose engagedengaged inin jihadjihad establish thatthat thethe evil of the infidels can be repelled only by attacking them at night withwith weapons weapons ofof mass mass destruction, theythey maymay bebe used even if they annihilate all the infidels.',92infldels."92 In the conclusion of hishis treatise,treatise, Shaykh al-Fahdal-Fand diddid notnot limit hishis argumentargument toto targetingtargeting WesternWestern locationslocations and civilians; hehe argued thatthat while usually thethe killingkilling ofof other Muslims isis forbiddenforbidden byby God,God, in in thethe pathpath ofof jihad it shouldshould be permitted. He stated, ""...... as long asas jihad hashas been commanded ...... andand itit can be carried outout only in thisthis wayway [i.e.,[Le., with MuslimsMuslims being killed inin attacksattacks by Muslims],Muslims], itit is permitted.,,93permitted."93 This isis anan importantimportant landmark in the evolution ofof al-Qaeda's al-Qaeda's view of and quest for a WMD capability. As aa religiousreligious organizationorganization and movement, al-Qaedaal-Qaeda has alwaysalways soughtsought toto present itself as workingworking within the limitslimits ofof what what is is permissiblepermissible inin IslamIslam andand advocatesadvocates that openopen jihadjihad againstagainst unbelieversunbelievers isis thethe duty ofof truetrue Muslims.Muslims. PriorPrior toto MayMay 2003,2003, al-al­ Qaeda leadershipleadership diddid notnot possess any any religious religious justification justification toto carry outout a WMD attack on the WestWest oror WesternWestern interestsinterests inin thethe Middle Middle East. East. However,However, ShaykhShaykh AI-Fand'sAI-Fahd's fatwa hashas removed religious constraints andand has empowered al-Qaeda-atal-Qaeda —at least least in in theory-with theory—with justification toto carry carry outout such such attacksattacks eveneven ifif they they result result inin massmass casualtiescasualties among Western or Muslim civilians. More recently, statements fromfrom al-Qaedaal-Qaeda leaders leaders left left little little toto the imagination and made it abundantly clear thatthat if and when the movementmovement werewere toto acquireacquire aa credible WMD capability, it would notnot hesitate hesitate toto use use suchsuch weaponsweapons againstagainst suitablesuitable targets.targets. This new direction waswas made obvious following thethe allegations allegations thatthat one one of of al-Qaeda's al-Qaeda's cellscells in Jordan intended toto carrycarry outout aa massive massive chemical attack in April 2004.2004. After thethe seizureseizure of largelarge amounts of explosivesexplosives and chemical precursors by Jordanian security forces and the arrest of severalseveral suspects, AbuAbu MusabMusab al-Zarqawi,al-Zarqawi, the the sponsorsponsor ofof thisthis attack and binbin Laden'sLaden's lieutenantlieutenant in Iraq,Iraq, denied thatthat the groupgroup hadhad plannedplanned toto useuse chemicalchemical weapons inin thethe attack. (Al-Zarqawi(AI-Zarqawi isis thethe one-time head of al-Tawhidal-Tawhid wal Jihad who, in OctoberOctober 2004,2004, swore allegiance toto bin Laden and changed thethe name of his outfit toto al-Qaeda al-Qaeda fi BiladBilad al-al­ Rafidayn [al-Qaeda inin thethe Land ofof two Rivers,Rivers, Le.,i.e., Iraq].)Iraq].) Although Although al-Zarqawial-Zarqawi claimedclaimed thatthat al-Qaeda diddid not possess WMD, WMD, he he avowed avowed unequivocally, unequivocally, "If "If we we hadhad such such a a bomb-and bomb—and we ask God thatthat we have suchsuch a a bomb bomb soon-wesoon—we wouldwould not hesitate forfor a moment to strike Israeli towns, such as Eilat, TelTel AvivAviv and others."others.,,9494 These sentimentssentiments werewere echoedechoed by by anotheranother importantimportant jihadi thinker andand operative,operative, Mustafa Sit Maryam Nasar, better better knownknown by his nom de guerre, Abu MusabMusab al-Suri, who, in December 2004, published the manuscript,manuscript, 'The"The International International Islamic Islamic Resistance Resistance Call."Call.',9595 InIn this 1,600-page1,600-page globalglobal jihadi jihadi blueprintblueprint andand inin hishis "Letter"Letter ofof ReplyReply toto thethe U.S. u.s. StateState Department," al-Surial-Suri enthusiastically arguesargues thatthat weapons of mass destructiondestruction should be used against the United StatesStates and criticizes OsamaOsama bin bin LadenLaden for for notnot using weapons of mass destructiondestruction inin the 9/11 attacks. He states,states, "If "If II werewere consultedconsulted inin the case ofof that operation II would adviseadvise the useuse of planes in flights from outsideoutside thethe U.S.U.s. that that would carry WMD. Hitting thethe U.S.u.s. with WMDWMD was and isis stillstill veryvery complicated.complicated. Yet,Yeti it isis possiblepossible after all, with Allah's help,help, andand moremore important important thanthan beingbeing possible-itpossible—it isis vital.,,96vital."96 HeHe adds, "The"The MuslimMuslim resistanceresistance elementselements [must] [must] seriouslyseriously consider consider this this difficultdifficult yet vitalvital directiondirection.,,97 o97

ACLURM002149 AL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 629

AI-Qaeda'sAl-Qaeda's EvolvingEvolving OrganizationalOrganizational StructureStructure andand ImplicationsImplications forfor WMDWMD UseUse

It isis worth considering thethe intentions of al-Qaedaal-Qaeda inin lightlight of the network's transformation into aa decentralizeddecentralized organization. This This evolution evolution intointo a global movement with variousvarious regional affiliates and autonomous cells increases the the risk of anan attackattack utilizingutilizing CBRNCBRN agents, butbut decreases the the likelihoodlikelihood of any individual cell obtainingobtaining aa truetrue mass-casualty mass-casualty capability. Three factors explain the heightenedheightened riskrisk ofof a a CBRN CBRN attack. First, since operational decisions areare currently currently mademade byby thethe leadersleaders of of individual individual cellscells without without COnsentconsent from Majlis al-Shura, these these cells cells operate operate without without oversightoversight from from aa ruling council; thus, any cell is theoretically freefree toto pursue any course ofof action that itit deemsdeems desirabledesirable or appropriate. Second, cellcell leadersleaders areare likely likely toto carrycarry outout a WMDWMD attackattack as soonsoon asas they they havehave the the capabilitycapability to dodo so.so. This has been thethe case withwith conventional weapons, andand therethere is no reason toto believe that cell leaders wouldwould delay an attack once they areare armed with weaponizedweaponized CBRN agents. agents. In In addition, addition, it it may may bebe inin thethe best interest of cell leaders toto precipitate an attack in order to safeguardsafeguard the virulence and/or potency of anyany biologicalbiological oror chemicalchemical agent employed asas a weapon. Third, the fatwafatwa issuedissued byby ShaykhShaykh NasirNasir bin HamidHamid al-Fandal-Fahd in 20032003 servedserved as an open invitationinvitation toto allall al-Qaedaal-Qaeda jihadisjihadis toto deploydeploy WMDWMD againstagainst Western interests whenwhen they are ready and able. This waswas thethe firstfirst semblance of religious justification forfor thethe use use ofof CBRN CBRN materialsmaterials by al-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliates. Additionally,Additionally, bin Laden'sLaden's statement that the acquisitionacquisition ofof nuclearnuclear andand chemicalchemical weapons is aa religiousreligious dutyduty for all Muslims will surely quell any remaining doubts among SalafiSalafi Islamists with with regardregard toto the use of CBRNCBRN agents. While the cellularcellular nature of thethe organizationorganization maymay facilitatefacilitate thethe acquisitionacquisition andand deployment ofof CBRNCBRN agentsagents inin some ways, thethe same decentralized structurestructure isis likelylikely to prevent anyanyone one cellcell fromfrom developingdeveloping a a true true mass-casualty mass-casualty capabilitycapability using using CBRNCBRN agents. The result is thatthat an individual cell is destined to havehave a more modest weapons capability than thethe networknetwork asas aa whole.whole. IndividualIndividual cellscells areare likelylikely toto acquireacquire onlyonly low-end low-end CBRN CBRN agents, comprising a crudecrude CBRNCBRN capability. As previously discussed, such aa capability is more suitable forfor targetedtargeted assassinations assassinations than forfor mass-casualty mass-casualty attacks. One caveat toto this argument is that thethe rankrank andand filefile ofof al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda, and especiallyespecially the Egyptian cadre, areare thethe most capable components of the al-Qaedaal-Qaeda network, and thus worthy ofof specialspecial attention. Al-ZawahiriAI-Zawahiri andand hishis cohorts havehave thus far evaded capture by Western oror allied entitiesentities and are likely to remain on the run,run, atat leastleast inin thethe foreseeableforeseeable future. Given that the cellular structure of al-Qaedaal-Qaeda greatlygreatly hinders monitoringmonitoring efforts, it isis difficult toto accuratelyaccurately assess the the threat threat ofof thisthis or anyoneany one faction. It is possible thatthat the Egyptian cadre is able to acquire or produceproduce more more advanced advanced CBRN CBRN agents; such a prospect would havehave serious implicationsimplications forfor the security of Western entities arouhd the globe.

How AreAre WMDWMD Portrayed Portrayed inin al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's Literature?literature?

UsingUsing thethe InternetInternet to ExportExport the RevolutionRevolution

After 9/11,9/11, an array of al-Qaeda andand pro-al-Qaeda websiteswebsites havehave emergedemerged onon thethe Internet. Currently, the al-Qaeda movement reliesrelies heavily on these websites to enhanceenhance its missionmission

ACLURM002150 630630 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA SALAMA AND AND LYDIA LYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

andand spread its message. Furthermore,Furthermore, many al-Qaeda affiliates,affiliates, suchsuch al-Tahwidal-Tahwid walwal Jihad,Jihad, thethe Algerian SalafistSalafist Group for PreachingPreaching and CombatCombat (GSPC)(GSPC) andand many others, have erected theirtheir own websites.websites. While most pagespages on thesethese websitesweb sites containcontain religiousreligious doctrines,doctrines, ideological ideological justification, justification, reports reports of of the the tyrannytyranny ofof Arab regimes,regimes, andand anti­anti- WesternWestern diatribesdiatribes outliningoutlining historicalhistorical MuslimMuslim grievancesgrievances against Western powers, a select number of these sources dealsdeals specificallyspecifically with with operational operational terroristterrorist methods and tactics thatthat detail how toto carrycarry outout terroristterrorist attacksattacks against potential targetstargets andand howhow toto manufacture conventional conventional and and unconventional unconventional weapons. weapons. One One of of the the bestbest waysways toto ascertain informationinformation about al-Qaedaal-Qaeda and assess its its threat, threat, intentions,intentions, andand capabilities is throughthrough activeactive monitoringmonitoring ofof various various al-Qaedaal-Qaeda websites. One cannot overemphasizeoveremphasize thethe importanceimportance of many of these websites.web sites. TheyThey provideprovide thethe al-Qaeda networknetwork withwith an effective method to disseminate information,information, allowing al­al- Qaeda affiliates,affiliates, supporters, supporters, and and independent independent cells cells worldwide worldwide toto learn fromfrom the experience of al-Qaeda operativesoperatives inin various global theaters. Such webwebsites sites alsoalso helphelp supporterssupporters toto replicate al-Qaeda operations operations and and tactics,tactics, thusthus spawningspawning additionaladditional cells in variousvarious locations aroundaround thethe globe. This effecteffect was bestbest demonstrateddemonstrated byby thethe latest bombing attempt inin LondonLondon onon JulyJuly 21,21, 2005,2005, asas thethe would-bewould-be bombersbombers manufacturedmanufactured the peroxide-based hexamethylene triperoxide diaminediamine (HMDT).(HMDn.9898 Detailed instruc-instruc­ tions for thethe manufacturemanufacture ofof this this explosiveexplosive areare available on the jihadi website, Mausu'at al-al­ Aqsa al-Jihadiyaal-Jihadiya (the AqsaAqsa JihadiJihadi Encyclopedia).Encyclopedia).9999 TheThe instructionsinstructions includeinclude technicaltechnical information regardingregarding temperature,temperature, storage,storage, usage,usage, exact ingredients,ingredients, exact preparation instructions, and variousvarious informativeinformative picturespictures ofof basic,basic, readilyreadily availableavailable ingredients,ingredients, lOo including HMDTHMDT at various production phasesphases and effects of a blast.blast.10° ItIt wouldwould notnot bebe surprising to find thatthat thethe would-be would-be bombers bombers in in this this case case used used thesethese specificspecific instructions to manufacturemanufacture theirtheir explosives.explosives. Several al-Qaedaal-Qaeda websites websites provide provide detailed detailed instructions instructions on on howhow to manufacturemanufacture CBRN agents.agents. Most Most notablenotable ofof all tacticaltactical jihadijihadi websiteswebsites isis Mausu'atMausu'at al-E'adadal-E'adad (the(the PreparationPreparation Encyclopedia), whichwhich is by farfar thethe most informative and comprehensive sourcesource on al-Qaedaal-Qaeda terrorism.terrorism.101101 ItIt isis a a large large website website thatthat contains contains linkslinks toto dozensdozens ofof portalsportals detailing numerousnumerous tacticaltactical skillsskills used and developed by jihadis. It includes hundreds (if notnot thousands)thousands) of pagespages on aa largelarge arrayarray of terroristterrorist topics,topics, andand itit providesprovides detaileddetailed instructionsinstructions andand diagramsdiagrams concerningmncerning guerrillaguerrilla tactics,tactics, lightlight weapons, weapons, silencers, silencers, marksman-marksman­ ship, self-defense,self-defense, martial arts, physical education, survival techniques, sabotage techni-techni­ ques,ques, espionage, resistance toto interrogations, rocket manufacture, explosive production, suicide-beltsuicide-belt production,production, bombsbombs andand landmines,landmines, timedtimed explosives,explosives, first aidaid andand warnings,warnings, chemicalchemical weapons,weapons, poisons,poisons, deadly gases, biological weapons, some basic information 102 aboutabout nuclearnuclear weapons,weapons, andand electronics,electronics, radar,radar, andand airplane-hinderingairplane-hindering techniques.techniques.102 ItIt alsoalso linkslinks to scoresscores of WesternWestern websites thatthat deal with similarsimilar topics.topics. ItIt isis clearclear thatthat the the al-Qaeda al-Qaeda movementmovement isis disseminatingdisseminating a considerableconsiderable amount of informationinformation onon itsits variousvarious websiteswebsites toto export its ideology,ideology, to attractattract newnew recruitsrecruits to itsits cause,cause, and toto empower independent cellscells with adviceadvice and instructions neededneeded toto organizeorganize effectivelyeffectively andand carrycarry out randomrandom acts of terrorism at important targets worldwide. Most of thesethese websiteswebsites areare surprisingly blunt aboutabout theirtheir goals goals andand methods. methods. They They areare alsoalso veryvery innovative;innovative; itit appearsappears thatthat al-Qaedaal-Qaeda supporterssupporters areare puttingputting forthforth a great deal of effort toto

ACLURM002151 AL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 631 spread their message by using multiplemUltiple useruser resource resource locators locators (URLs) (URLs) and, in somesome cases,cases, password-protected websites. ActiveActive monitoringmonitoring of these mostly websites is oneone ofof the bestbest ways to assessassess accuratelyaccurately the the conventionalconventional andand WMDWMD threat threat posedposed byby thethe al-al­ Qaeda network. It is importantimportant toto establishestablish that WMDWMD portrayal inin al-Qaeda literatureliterature isis ratherrather limited.limited. The vastvast majoritymajority of al-Qaeda literature literature isis mademade up up of of religiousreligious doctrine,doctrine, writingswritings ofof famous ideologues (e.g., Ibn Taymiyya, ,Qutb, and AbdullahAbdullah Azzam),Azzam), discussiondiscussion forums among al-Qaeda supporters,supporters, reportsreports of of daily activities, videos ofof operations, advice to other jihadis, warnings to other supporters,supporters, long anti-Westernantj-Western andand anti-Shi'a diatribes, and endless criticismcriticism ofof "apostate" moderate and secular Muslim regimes. OnlyOnly a smallsmall partpart ofof the literatureliterature deals with actualactual operationaloperational topics, and of those,those, aa minorityminority exploresexplores weapons of massmass destruction.

The Equalizer

Recently, anan al-Tawhidal-Tawhid walwal JihadJihad (al-Qaeda(al-Qaeda in in Iraq) Iraq) official official websitewebsite postedposted an eight-page document specifically dealingdealing withwith the history of useuse of biological weapons and indirectly advocating the useuse of thesethese weaponsweapons against the UnitedUnited States.States. The group clarifies the advantage ofof biological weapons as an effective and affordable WMD that could bring thethe MujahideenMujahideen to parityparity withwith the the United United States. States. ItIt states, states, "The'The AmericanAmerican people are living in fear due to the anthraxanthrax phphobia.eobia. This justified fear among ordinary citizens is duedue toto some casualtiescasualties from from the the infectedinfected lettersletters ...... What What manymany AmericansAmericans do not knowknow isis thatthat thesethese microbesmicrobes are thethe fruit ofof thethe endlessendless greed of their culture."culture.,,103103 Following a short chronology of the usesuses of biological weapons throughout history, the author continues:continues:

Biological weapons are consideredconsidered thethe least complicatedcomplicated and the easiest toto manufacture from [sic] all weapons ofof mass destruction. destruction. All All the the information information concerningconcerning thethe productionproduction of thesethese weapons is readily available in academic books, scholarly publications and even on the internet .... InIn addition toto the the ease ease ofof their their production, production, these these weapons weapons areare alsoalso considered to be thethe mostmost affordable.affordable. WithWith $50,000$50,000 aa groupgroup of of amateurs amateurs cancan possesposses aa biological weapon sufficient to threaten aa superpower. It is for this reason thatthat biological weapons areare calledcalled the the poor poor man'sman's atomic atomic weapon. weapon.'"104

The view of WMD asas the the "equalizer" "equalizer" that that couldcould bringbring the Mujahideen communitycommunity to parity with thethe WestWest isis alsoalso thethe themetheme ofof other other recently recently publishedpublished importantimportant jihadijihadi literature,literature, namely the previouslypreviously mentioned text,text, -'TheThe International IslamicIslamic ResistanceResistance Call," and the Nuclear Preparation Encyclopedia. InIn thethe firstfirst document,document, arguingarguing thatthat WMDsWMDs are the only method thatthat cancan bringbring equivalenceequivalence withwith the the United United States, States, AbuAbu MusabMusab al-Surial-Suri states, "The"The ultimateultimate choicechoice isis thethe destruction ofof the UnitedUnited StatesStates by operationsoperations of strategic symmetry through weaponsweapons ofof mass mass destruction,destruction, namelynamely nuclear,nuclear, chemical,chemical, or biologicalbiological means,means, ifif the Mujahideen can achieve itit with thethe helphelp ofof those those who who possess possess themthem or throughthrough buyingbuying them."them.,,105105 HeHe continues to statestate thatthat acquiringacquiring WMDWMD shouldshould bebe aa foremostforemost priority of thethe globalglobal jihadijihadi communitycommunity andand isis moremore importantimportant thanthan attackingattacking AmericanAmerican troops in Iraq. AI-SuriAl-Suri goesgoes so so far far as as to to callcall on on thethe globalglobal jihadijihadi movement to

ACLURM002152 632 SAMMY SALAMA AND LYDIALYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

create specialspecial eliteelite squadssquads that that wouldwould carry outout strategic operations andand shouldshould consist ofof highly trained jihadisjihad is whowho possesspossess advanced WMD knowledge and receive ample financialfinancial support "when therethere isis a need to counter attack or to achieve strategicstrategic symmetrysymmetry withwith thethe United States."'States.,,106 °6 The second document,document, the Nuclear Preparation Encyclopedia, is authored by thethe self-self­ described al-Qaeda supportersupporter LaythLayth ai-Islamal-Islam who, who, inin OctoberOctober 2005,2005, posted posted the the documentdocument on the al-Firdawsal-Firdaws JihadiJihad' website. In this extensive multi-chapter document,document, thethe author argues thatthat scientific discovery-namelydiscovery—namely mastery ofof nuclear technology-istechnology—is the desireddesired path for al-Qaedaal-Qaeda toto gain parity with the WestWest and calls forfor the construction of jihadi nuclear weapons.weapons. HeHe states, states, "I "I believe believe that that the the strategicstrategic balancebalance of of power power onon thethe battle field will notnot changechange forfor thethe MujahideenMujahideen withoutwithout correct correct scientificscientific progress."progress:,107107

BacklashBacklash-—The Boomerang EffectEffect

AI-Qaeda literatureliterature claimsclaims thatthat in recent history the United States itselfitself waswas instrumentalinstrumental in the development of deadly weapons and thusthus isis doomeddoomed toto be undermined by its own creation. One statement reads:reads:

ItIt isis strange that all thesethese experiments have yetyet toto convince AmericaAmerica that that itit is thethe most vulnerable nation to such weapons ...... itit appearsappears that the capitalistcapitalist nations which were founded on thethe sanctitysanctity ofof materialmaterial valuesvalues havehave made their entireentire culturalcultural makeupmakeup aa of thesethese imaginaryimaginary values, so so itit is challengedchallenged by thethe smallestsmallest of beingsbeings (microbes), whichwhich has revealedrevealed theirtheir powerlessnesspowerlessness ...... thethe magic spellspell has turnedturned onon thethe magician.1lOB'

Although variousvarious CBRNCBRN productionproduction instructions are included in al-Qaedaal-Qaeda literature, the vast majority of this information isis intended to educate the Mujahideen communitycommunity on 109 the history,history, legitimacy,legitimacy, andand thethe effects effects of of CBRN CBRN agents.109 Only a small percentage of such information consists of formulationsformulations andand recipesrecipes gearedgeared towardtoward manufacturemanufacture andand production of actualactual CBRNCBRN agents.agents. Furthermore, Furthermore, it itis is important important to to notenote thatthat the volume and the detaildetail ofof thesethese CBRNCBRN instructionsinstructions pales in in comparisoncomparison to to instructionsinstructions dealingdealing withwith thethe manufacturemanufacture ofof explosives,explosives, guerrillaguerrilla warfare, warfare, useuse ofof conventionalconventional arms,arms, religiousreligious doctrine, ideology,ideology, resistingresisting interrogationinterrogation techniques,techniques, andand anti-Westernanti-Western andand anti-Shi'aanti-Shi'a diatribes that amountamount toto hundreds hundreds of of pages. pages. To put thingsthings inin perspective,perspective, a recent posting on oneone SyrianSyrian anti-government,anti-government, pro-al-Qaeda website website dealing dealing with with thethe importance of everyday cameracamera andand videovideo usageusage exceedsexceeds in in depth depth and and lengthlength thethe instructions on the 1 manufacture and weaponization of the biological toxin ricin.ricin. n°10

Evaluation of CBRN ProductionProduction InstructionsInstructions as Portrayed inin ActualActual al-QaedaaI-Qaeda Literature

InIn recentrecent years,years, some al-Qaeda outlets have produced books,books, manuals,manuals, and web pagespages thatthat discussdiscuss in detail thethe importanceimportance andand thethe utilityutility of of various various poisons, poisons, chemicalchemical agents,agents, biological agents,agents, and nuclearnuclear weapons. Many of these sources containcontain a great deal of general information on thethe history,history, utility,utility, andand useuse ofof specific specific agents. agents. SomeSome pagespages

ACLURM002153 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 633 specificallyspecifically discussdiscuss toxicity toxicity and and potencypotency ofof chemical andand biological agents, whilewhile others discuss how how thesethese agentsagents werewere produced andand used throughout history.history. The mostmost worrisome sections ofof material dealing with CBRNCBRN agentsagents areare the the instructioninstruction pages thatthat detail specific directionsdirections forfor the manufacture of numerous important CBW CBW agents. In most cases, these these instructions instructions areare specificspecific andand easyeasy to to emulate.emulate. In some cases, thethe instructionsinstructions are veryvery vaguevague andand dodo notnot include key technicaltechnical information.information. TheThe productionproduction instructions most notably outline the productionproduction ofof the the following following chemical chemical agents:agents: cyanide,cyanide, hydrogen sulfide gas, andand mustardmustard gas.gas. Instructions Instructions also also include include information information onon thethe biological agents ricin, Yersinia pestis, and botulinum toxin,toxin, asas well as information on several other low-end, non-CBRN poisons. poisons. Two Two website website postings postings also also instruct instruct the the Mujahideen Mujahideen on on howhow to manufacture a . These instructionsinstructions werewere translated fromfrom Arabic andand assessedassessed byby analysts atat the Center for Nonproliferation StudiesStudies for meritmerit andand accuracyaccuracy (see(see Table 1). WithWith regard toto CBW formulations, formulations, inin general,general, itit became obviousobvious thatthat the instructionsinstructions werewere amateurishamateurish and adequate forfor thethe production only of smallsmall quantities of crude agents thatthat were not suitable for mass-casualtymass-casualty terrorism.111n1 TheThe fourfour different formulationsformulations portrayed for ricin 112 are sufficient forfor the production of a small amount of crude agent.712 The instructions forfor 1 mustard gas werewere incompleteincomplete andand insufficientinsufficient forfor actualactual productionproduction of the agent. 11313 In the case ofof cyanide, thethe instructions diddid not indicateindicate thatthat thethe precursor precursor chemicalschemicals werewere difficult to procure.procure. 114 TheThe processprocess outlinedoutlined forfor botulinum toxintoxin was very difficult to master and likely would not havehave resulted in the successfulsuccessful productionproduction of the agent.agent."s15 The instructions forfor plague bacteria were were rudimentary rudimentary and and did did notnot indicateindicate thatthat itit would be difficult to findfind aa suitablesuitable hosthost toto extractextract aa culture,culture, oror thatthat thethe plagueplague isis fragilefragile andand isis very difficult toto weaponizeweapo~ize andand dispersedisperse effectively.effectiilely.11616 Primarily, thethe authorauthor borrowed text and sketches fromfrom the 19771977 American biology book Microbiology by MichaelMichael J.J. Pelzcar,Pelzcar, RogerRoger D.D. Reid,Reid, andand E.E. C.C. S.S. Chan.Chan.ll7117 As for thethe variousvarious postingspostings dealingdealing with nuclearnuclear oror radiologicalradiological weapons,weapons, one isis mainly informational and appears to to bebe a translation ofof a document written byby OutlawOutlaw Labs, whichwhich is currently posted onon variousvarious AmericanAmerican websites.websites.11811a AA secondsecond article, which surveys international instancesinstances of of radiological contaminationscontaminations from from 1945 to 1987,1987, discusses thethe possibility of usingusing Cesium-137Cesium-137 inin aa radiologicalradiological dispersaldispersal devisedevise (RDD).(RDD). It discusses inin generalgeneral termsterms thethe possible sourcessources of of thethe radioactiveradioactive material and the use of thisthis agent inin anan RDD. The The posting posting doesdoes not not provideprovide detaileddetailed directionsdirections forfor thethe construction of thethe RDD,RDD, nor does it detail the amountamount of of Cesium-137 Cesium-137 oror explosivesexplosives needed for suchsuch an endeavor. It does, however, outline the expected economic damagedamage ofof such such an attack and listslists possiblepossible WesternWestern citiescities asas targets.targets.119119 A thirdthird postingposting detailingdetailing instructionsinstructions for enrichmentenrichment of uraniumuranium andand thethe manufacturemanufacture of an atomatom bombbomb waswas ludicrous.ludicrous. The instructions borrowed from aa fringefringe publicationpublication in in English English werewere simplysimply sub-par sub~par andand absentabsent ofof any any real real scientificscientific expertise.expertise. TheyThey coach the would-be terrorist not toto bebe fearfulfearful ofof working working withwith nuclear nuclear fissile ,material, for radiationradiation isis actuallyactually good forfor us.us. Furthermore, these instructionsinstructions teach a would-be terrorist howhow toto enrichenrich uraniumuranium onon aa kitchen kitchen tabletable byby usingusing "commercial"commercial gradegrade uranium"uranium" metal,metal, 120 hydrofluorichydrofluoric acid, a few buckets,buckets, and aa bicyclebicycle pump.pump.120 IfIf thesethese instructionsinstructions werewere accurate,accurate, Iraq and Libya, forfor example, wouldwould not have spent millions ofof dollars,dollars, employedemployed

ACLURM002154 634 SAMMY SALAMA AND LYDIALYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

TABLE 1 Assessment of of Production Production InstructionsInstructions forfor CBRN AgentsAgents asas Displayed Displayed inin ActualActual al-Qaeda and other Jihadi Literature and Manuals

Chemical Weapons

Hydrogen Yes Crude No No Low; this agent sulfide gas will workwork only (2 different if deployed in formulations) a confined area; awful odor will force people to evacuate the area

Biological Weapons

Ricin Yes; the A small No No Very low; more (4 different process is amount of suitable for formulations) amateurish crude agentagent poisoning or . assassination

Radiological and Nuclear Weapons

ACLURM002155 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMDWMD 635635

TABLETABLE 1 1 (Continued)(Continued)

Highly No; These No No None enrichedenriched instructions instructionsinstructions uranium areare areare not ludicrousludicrous sufficientsufficient forfor production

*RDD:'ROD: RadiologicalRadiological Dispersion Device

thousands of scientists,scientists, and purchasedpurchased reactors,reactors, gas centrifuges, and conversion facilities, only toto bebe unsuccessfulunsuccessful in attempting toto acquire acquire nuclear nuclear weapons.weapons. EnrichingEnriching uraniumuranium isis aa technologicallytechnologically formidable formidable task task that that isis beyond the modestmodest scientificscientific meansmeans of aa transnationaltransnational terror networknetwork withwith access access to "commercial"commercial gradegrade uranium,"uranium," bicyclebicycle pumps,pumps, and kitchenkitchen tables.tables. The mostmost seriousserious al-Qaeda-relatedal-Qaeda-related nuclear text, the NuclearNuclear PreparationPreparation Encyclope-Encyclope­ dia,dia, was postedposted inin OctoberOctober 20052005 onon thethe jihadi jihadi website website al-Firdaws. al-Firdaws. AsAs mentionedmentioned previously,previously, itit is aa multi-chaptermulti-chapter collection that was compiled and written byby aa self-self­ describeddescribed supporter of al-Qaeda,al-Qaeda, Layth al-Islamai-Islam (the LionLion ofof Islam). Islam). UnlikeUnlike previousprevious literatureliterature thatthat was was largelylargely voidvoid ofof scientific scientific data, data, thisthis documentdocument contains contains tens tens of of pages pages onon aa historicalhistorical survey of nuclearnuclear technology,technology, includingincluding anan ArabicArabic explanationexplanation ofof nuclearnuclear experiments,experiments, concepts, andand anan overview ofof EnricoEnrico Fermi as well as otherother prominentprominent nuclearnuclear pioneers.pioneers. Most disturbing, it includesincludes information aboutabout criticalcritical massmass andand thethe amountamount ofof fissile fissile materialsmaterials neededneeded in thethe constructionconstruction ofof nuclear nuclear weapons.weapons. InIn addition,addition, variousvarious sketchessketches and diagrams in English andand ArabicArabic areare providedprovided ofof purported gun-typegun-type andand implosion-typeimplosion-type nuclearnuclear warheads,warheads, which areare clearlyclearly borrowedborrowed fromfrom open-sourceopen-source informationinformation availableavailable onon thethe Internet.Internet.121l2l TheThe authorauthor claims,claims, "I"I havehave beenbeen studyingstudying nuclearnuclear physicsphysics for twotwo years years onon variousvarious scientificscientific andand JihadiJihadi websites" and that his posting is "a present to thethe AmirAmir [captain][captain] ofof thethe MujahideenMujahideen SheikhSheikh Osama binbin Laden, GodGod blessbless him, him, for for thethe JihadJihad inin the pathpath ofof god."god.,,122122 AlthoughAlthough this this posting posting does does not not provide provide al-Qaeda al-Qaeda terroriststerrorists withwith an an accurate accurate

ACLURM002156 636636 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA SALAMA AND AND LYDIA LYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

step-by-stepstep-by-step blueprint blueprint for for thethe construction ofof a nuclearnuclear weapon (a la the warheadwarhead assemblyassembly designdesign givengiven toto Libya by the A. Q. KhanKhan network),network), itit isis noteworthynoteworthy as it reveals anan increaseincrease in in the the understandingunderstanding ofof nuclearnuclear technology technology byby thethe jihadijihadi community.community. However, similarsimilar toto otherother al-Qaedaal-Qaeda WMD productionproduction manuals,manuals, this nuclearnuclear encyclopedia containscontains numerousnumerous basicbasic technical technical flaws. flaws. The The author author detailsdetails stepssteps forfor thethe extraction ofof the radioactiveradioactive material radium andand the assembly ofof a gun-type radium bomb, which hehe inaccuratelyinaccurately claimsclaims can yield aa nuclearnuclear . This is false,false, for for radiumradium isis not a fissionable materialmaterial andand isis notnot suited forfor nuclear bomb assembly; thethe instructionsinstructions outlined would in factfact amountamount toto nono moremore thanthan anan RDD,RDD, provided the perpetrator could extract aa sufficientsufficient amount ofof radiumradium through thethe outlinedoutlined crudecrude methodsmethods andand 123 techniques.techniq ues: 23 Not only are there basic technical flawsflaws inin thesethese instructions,instructions, butbut the literature also failsfails toto mention thethe importanceimportance ofof effectiveeffective deploymentdeployment strategies strategies andand techniques.techniques. Simply stated, eveneven aa potent CBRN agent agent on on itsits ownown does not equalequal aa weaponweapon ofof massmass destruction. For For an an agentagent toto bebe transformedtransformed intointo a truetrue WMD,WMD, multiplemUltiple stagesstages of weaponization are required. Carrying outout aa successfulsuccessful terrorism attack utilizingutilizing CBWCBW agents is a formidableformidable task,task, as outlined byby Dr.Dr. RaymondRaymond Zilinskas,Zilinskas, co-editorco-editor ofof the Encyclopedia of BioterrorismBioterrorism Defense:Defense:

Acquiring an effective biological weaponweapon andand carryingcarrying outout a a successful successful biological attack requires thethe criminal to taketake fourfour vitalvital steps:steps: (1)(1) secure aa cultureculture ofof a suitablesuitable pathogenpathogen or a quantity of toxin;toxin; (2)(2) develop an appropriate formulation-thatformulation—that is,is, a combination of the pathogen oror toxintoxin andand thethe substrate substrate inin whichwhich itit is is suspendedsuspended oror dissolved;dissolved; (3) obtain an appropriate container to storestore safelysafely and transport the formulations;formulations; andand (4)(4) apply an efficient mechanism to to dispersedisperse the the pathogen pathogen or or toxin toxin overover oror onto thethe targettarget population. In addition, if thethe BWBW agent is to bebe delivereddelivered byby aerosol,aerosol, a fifth factorfactor isis essential, namely,namely, favorable favorable meteorological meteorological conditions conditions for for the the act act of of dispersion. dispersion.'124

ForFor the mostmost part,part, al-Qaedaal-Qaeda literature does not explore the lastlast threethree stagesstages of deployment—weaponization,deployment-weaponization, manufacturemanufacture of of munitions, and effectiveeffective deliverydelivery sys-sys­ temstems-as as they lacklack anyany realreal insightinsight intointo credible credible techniquestechniques ofof weaponization weaponization andand deployment of of CBRN CBRN agents. ProcuringProcuring anan agent agent isis only only thethe firstfirst stepstep inin thethe constructionconstruction of aa crediblecredible WMD.WMD. At a most basicbasic level, a terrorist cell needs the proper technicaltechnical expertiseexpertise inin orderorder toto weaponize weaponize andand deliverdeliver thethe agentagent toto its its target. target. This This involvesinvolves ensuringensuring thethe chemicalchemical stabilitystability ofof the the agentagent during during the the filling filling of of munitions munitions (e.g., (e.g., canisters, canisters, shells, shells, artillery, us andand rockets)rockets) as wellwell as throughoutthroughout the processprocess of deployment.125 WithWith thethe exceptionexception ofof a a fewfew mentionsmentions ofof crop crop dusters dusters and and a a few few basic basic diagrams diagrams of of CW CW munition munition shells, shells, al-Qaeda al-Qaeda WMDWMD literature is largelylargely devoid ofof suchsuch specificspecific instructionsinstructions on howhow toto weaponize, weaponize, stabilize,stabilize, and build munitions.munitions. Moreover,Moreover, therethere are no specificspecific instructions onon how toto manufacturemanufacture oror utilizeutilize crediblecredible dispersaldispersal methods.methods. Finally,Finally, al-Qaeda literatureliterature doesdoes not not containcontain anyany detaileddetailed informationinformation on the impactimpact ofof atmospheric atmospheric conditions conditions (i.e.,(i.e., temperatures,temperatures, sunlight, rain, altitude, windwind speed,speed, windwind direction,direction, andand turbulence)turbulence) onon thethe deploymentdeployment ofof CBW CBW agents. agents. TheseThese areare crucialcrucial considerations,considerations, for these atmospheric conditions have a direct effect onon thethe performanceperformance andand potencypotency of of a a CBW CBW agent:26agent.126

ACLURM002157 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 637

The acquisition ofof small quantities ofof ricinricin oror hydrogenhydrogen sulfidesulfide gasgas neitherneither constitutes aa WMD capability nor empowersempowers a terroristterrorist organizationorganization toto causecause massmass casualties. Judging Judging from from al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's literature literature and and open open sourcesource information, information, thethe network'snetwork's conventional capabilitycapability forfor inflicting massmass casualtiescasualties asas demonstrateddemonstrated on on 9/11 over-over­ shadows any actualactual CBRNCBRN capability. capability. It It is is not not clear clear if if the the information information portrayed in al-Qaeda literatureliterature is thethe full extentextent ofof thethe movement'smovement's CBRNCBRN knowledge,knowledge, oror ifif moremore informationinformation is disseminated through secretivesecretive channels. However,However, despitedespite thethe proliferationproliferation of sensational reporting, asas well as al-Qaeda's self-proclaimed self-proclaimed bravado,bravado, many many notable notable expertsexperts inin thethe fieldfield agree thatthat weaponization and deployment ofof WMD WMD entails myriad technical and logistical hurdles that no terrorist organization,organization, includingincluding al-Qaeda,al-Qaeda, has demonstrateddemonstrated thethe means toto 127 overcome.127

Deployment Instructions as Depicted on al-QaedaaI-Qaeda Websites

In general,general, al-Qaeda's deployment deployment instructionsinstructions are are rather rather crudecrude and and moremore suited for assassination oror poisoningpoisoning than mass-casualtymass-casualty terrorism.terrorism. A posting on an al-Qaeda websitewebsite informs a Mujahid howhow toto purchase purchase andand deploydeploy cyanide:cyanide: "Go"Go toto aa placeplace thatthat sellssells poisons and ask about cyanide, which is veryvery affordable. Then purchase somesome handhand lotionlotion at a supermarket specifically thethe kind that opensopens pores.pores. Take a teaspoon of cyanide and add some of the handhand lotionlotion andand mixmix itit well well very very carefully." carefully." FollowingFollowing thethe preparationpreparation instructions, thethe Mujahid isis askedasked to to experimentexperiment with with thethe mixmix byby applyingapplying itit toto a rabbitrabbit toto make sure thatthat the dosagedosage is lethal. Then thethe instructions specify howhow toto target human beings. They state, "Following"Following the successfulsuccessful experimentsexperiments put put thethe poison in aa glassglass container and watch outout specificallyspecifically forfor carscars ofof AmericansAmericans and other enemies,enemies, and apply some of the poison on the doordoor handle.handle. This should not bebe done in a clumsy way, butbut you should use aa piecepiece of of cottoncotton toto properly apply ... thisthis poisonpoison onon thethe insideinside and outside of the handlehandle to comecome inin contactcontact with thethe fingersfingers ofof thethe enemyenemy ofof God."God:,128128 Other instructions dealing withwith deploymentdeployment of of low-end low-end (non-CBW) (non-CBW) poisonspOisons advocate targeting individualsindividuals in theirtheir carscars and poisoningpoisoning food inin aa supermarket: supermarket: "[L]ook for aa vaccination needle needle and and fill fill itit with the agentagent andand sprayspray this material intointo toto the airair conditioning openings ofof a car or house, ifif you could do this to thethe enemiesenemies of god,god, knowingknowing that targetingtargeting thethe carcar wouldwould bebe muchmuch better."better:,129129 AsAs forfor targetingtargeting AmericanAmerican customers at aa supermarket,supermarket, the adviceadvice states:states:

All thatthat youyou havehave toto dodo is is toto go go to to the the supermarket supermarket were were the the American American pigspigs shop.shop. Observe him well andand makemake sure that youyou areare closeclose to himhim especiallyespecially to hishis shoppingshopping cartcart .... if ifthis this pig pig puts puts some some uncovered uncovered vegetables vegetables oror fruitfruit in in his his cartcart youyou shouldshould sprayspray thisthis materialmaterial (poison) onon themthem whenwhen hehe isis not paying attention ...... if youyou can,can, it isis preferablepreferable to stick the needle in the fruit.13°13o

NotNot surprisingly,surprisingly, thesethese instructionsinstructions clearly portray al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's intent intent to harmharm AmericansAmericans inin their cars,cars, homes,homes, or supermarkets;supermarkets; atat the samesame time theythey areare clearlyclearly deficientdeficient andand incapableincapable of instructinginstructing readersreaders inin howhow toto use use CBRN CBRN agentsagents and otherother poisonspOisons inin aa mass-casualty mass-casualty attack. If anything,anything, suchsuch directionsdirections clearlyclearly demonstratedemonstrate the amateurishamateurish nature ofof CBRN CBRN attacksattacks currentlycurrently concoctedconcocted byby al-Qaeda al-Qaeda supporters.supporters. TheThe

ACLURM002158 638 SAMMY SALAMA AND LYDIALYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

prospects ofof using an aerosolaerosol dispersiondispersion device device for for deployment deployment andand contaminatingcontaminating water or food suppliessupplies are mentioned brieflybriefly inin aa fewfew sources;sources; some even advocate combiningcombining CBRN agents agents with with explosivesexplosives or or suicide suicide bombings.bombings. YetYet therethere isis no detailed discussion ofof the matter, nor areare there any specific instructionsinstructions onon how to manufacturemanufacture or utilizeutilize suchsuch devices to deploy actualactual CBRNCBRN agents.131l31 The results of anan assessmentassessment of currentcurrent al-Qaedaal-Qaeda CBRNCBRN agentagent production and deployment capabilities fall in lineline withwith al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's originally stated goals as portrayed in the internalinternal meetingmeeting ofof Majlis Majlis al-Shuraal-Shura inin thethe late late 1990s. 19905. ItIt appearsappears thatthat al-Qaeda al-Qaeda leadersleaders and outlets areare intentionally exaggeratingexaggerating thethe organization'sorganization's CBRNCBRN capabilitycapability by making provocative statements to provoke fear among their enemies and toto enhance thethe combat capability and influence of their fighters. ProclamationsProclamations of "weapons of mass destruction"destruction" possession also also increase increase the the stature stature and and thethe apparentapparent capabilitycapability of thethe al-Qaeda al-Qaeda movement. At At thethe samesame time, time, it it isis notnot the intention of this paperpaper to dismissdismiss outout of hand the network's WMD threat to the West.West. To thethe contrary, despitedespite thethe inherent flaws in production instructionsinstructions ofof mostmost CBRN CBRN agents currently portrayed on al-Qaedaal-Qaeda outlets, it appears thatthat the organization is fully intent onon achievingachieving aa WMDWMD capability. For that reason alone, it isis essential to continue monitoringmonitoring al-Qaedaal-Qaeda outlets toto accuratelyaccurately ascertainascertain the organization's future capabilitiescapabilities and technical prowess.prowess.

Difficulties in Manufacturing -— Lessons from from LibyaLibya andand Iraq

At thethe mostmost basicbasic level,level, developingdeveloping andand weaponizingweaponizing CBRNCBRN agents is not anan easyeasy undertaking. Many developing nations that employed hundredshundreds ofoftrained trained technicianstechnicians and scientists andand allocated millions of dollars over many decades were not able to achieveachieve aa significant WMDWMD capability.capability. Libya Libya is isa a primeprime exampleexample of of thethe inherent difficulty of manufacturing andand weaponizingweaponizing such such agents.agents. LibyaLibya hadhad aa scientific cadrecadre of 120120 chemical, 800 nuclear,nuclear, and 4,0004,000 missilemissile specialists.specialists.132 Overall,Overall, thethe country had spent hundreds of millions of dollars on relatively sophisticated labs forfor thethe productionproduction and weaponization of CBRN agents. agents. Yet Yet the the net net resultresult ofof this largelylargely uninterrupteduninterrupted lavishlavish effort waswas ratherrather unimpressive. FollowingFollowing Libya's unilateral disarmamentdisarmament onon December 19, 2003, the country's entire WMDWMD arsenal was revealed asas 2323 tonstons ofof mustard gas, a few hundredhundred short-range Scud missiles, five five untested longer-range Scuds, and and virtuallyvirtually no nuclearnuclear or biological weapons production capability.capability. Another illustrativeillustrative exampleexample isis Iraq.Iraq. Prior to 1991,1991, Iraq invested more funds in WMDWMD manufacture and research thanthan anyany otherother developing country and was able to produceproduce and weaponize anan arrayarray of CBWCBW agents. IraqIraq alsoalso employedemployed tenstens of thousands of scientists and technicians in its variousvarious WMD production facilities.facilities. Nevertheless,Nevertheless, itit waswas notnot able to weaponize anthraxanthrax bacteriabacteria inin a powderpowder form.form. ThisThis isis aa noteworthynoteworthy fact, fact, especiallyespecially considering the enormousenormous attentionattention garnered garnered by by the the anthrax anthrax cases cases inin 2001.2001. A 2003 report for thethe PentagonPentagon estimatedestimated thatthat if if terroriststerrorists releasedreleased a large amount of anthraxanthrax bacteriabacteria in a large city under optimal weatherweather conditions,conditions, itit wouldwould infect infect 200,000 200,000 peoplepeople in in anan areaarea 40 milesmiles downwind.downwind.133133 TheThe specterspecter ofof biological biological agentagent releaserelease underunder optimaloptimal weatherweather conditions isis trulytruly horrifying,horrifying, butbut if if Saddam , Hussein, with hishis lavishlavish labslabs and thousands of

ACLURM002159 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 639 capablecapable scientists,scientists, could could notnot weaponizeweaponize anthraxanthrax bacteria spores,spores, howhow couldcould aa fewfew jihadisjihadis inin produceproduce aa sufficientsufficient amountamount of this agentagent toto carry carry outout a a mass-casualty mass-casualty attack? Capability doesdoes notnot equalequal intent,intent, and no amount of anti-Western animosity,animOSity, religious fervor,fervor, wishful thinking, enthusiasm, or threatening rhetoricrhetoric fromfrom al-Qaedaal-Qaeda can overcome thethe formidable technical challenges involved involved in in thethe weaponization andand deploymentdeployment ofof high-end CBRN agents. agents. These These hurdles hurdles can can only only be be overcomeovercome ifif and when thethe al-Qaedaal-Qaeda movement acquires suchsuch scientificscientific capability capability that that fortunately still appearsappears beyond its means.

Difficulties in DeploymentDeployment —- The Case of Aum ShinrikyoShinrikyo

In March 1995, the Japanese cultcult Aum Shinrikyo released sarin gas inin thethe Tokyo subway 134 system, killingkilling 12 peoplepeople andand injuringinjuring more than 1,000.1,000.134 Cultists spread thethe sarin solutionsolution by puncturing smallsmall bags containing the agent withwith sharpenedsharpened umbrellaumbrella tips. One Aum member was placed on each of five subwaysubway cars converging on thethe KasumigasekiKasumigaseki station during morning rush hour. In this way, thethe hoped to effecteffect the highesthighest number of casualties. The The incident incident waswas thethe culminationculmination of yearsyears ofof secretive secretive researchresearch andand development efforts to produceproduce biologicalbiological andand chemicalchemical agentsagents asas terroristterrorist weapons.weapons. Although the subwaysubway attacksattacks resulted in a loss of human life and led to widespread panic throughout Tokyo,Tokyo, thethe incidentincident couldcould havehave hadhad farfar deadlierdeadlier repercussionsrepercussions had the agent been weaponized and disseminated using more advanced techniques. TheThe factfact thatthat Aum was unable to perpetrateperpetrate aa true true mass-casualty mass-casualty WMDWMD attackattack afterafter yearsyears ofof researchresearch and development effortsefforts atat a costcost ofof hundredshundreds ofof thousandsthousands ofof dollarsdollars hashas importantimportant implications for thethe WMDWMD potentialpotential ofof other other terrorist terrorist groups groups such such as as al-Qaeda.al-Qaeda. Aum recruitedrecruited expertsexperts inin biochemistry,biochemistry, physics,physics, engineering, and other technicaltechnical specializations in order to participate inin thethe group's group's CBW CBW program.program. InIn thethe earlyearly 1990s,1990s, Aum scientists began experimentsexperiments withwith the intent toto produce produce a a series series of nervenerve agents, including sarin, soman, tabun, and VX.VX.135138 TheThe groupgroup alsoalso acquiredacquired hydrogenhydrogen cyanidecyanide and sodiumsodium cyanide.136136 JapaneseJapanese authoritiesauthorities believe believe that that byby 1995, thethe cult hadhad producedproduced bothboth botulinum toxintoxin and and anthraxanthrax bacteria. bacteria. AumAum scientistsscientists werewere alsoalso ableable toto acquireacquire advancedadvanced laboratorylaboratory materials,materials, includingincluding filtrationfiltration systems,systems, electronelectron microscopes,microscopes, sophisticatedsophisticated computer systems,systems, andand documents describing the intricacies of agent cultivation.cultivation.137137 TheThe cult obtainedobtained thisthis specializedspecialized equipment through complexcomplex procurementprocurement networksnetworks andand actually acquired many precursor chemicals through legallegal channelschannels in the pharmaceuticalpharmaceutical industry.industry.138138 AumAum ShinrikyoShinrikyo allegedlya"egedly conducted at leastleast 2020 attacksattacks utilizingutilizing chemicalchemical andand biologicalbiological agentsagents betweenbetween 19901990 andand 1995;1995; however, few ofof thesethese attacksattacks resulted in anyany casualties.casualties.139In139 In total,total, AumAum conductedconducted sixsix attacks using botulinum toxin,toxin, fourfour attacks attacks usingusing anthraxanthrax bacteria,bacteria, five attacks using sarin,sarin, three attacks using VX, and two attacksattacks usingusing hydrogenhydrogen cyanide.cyanide. Only 2020 individualsindividuals werewere killedkilled asas aa resultreSUlt ofof these these 2020 attacks,attacks, spreadspread acrossacross five years. WhileWhile anyany number of casualtiescasualties is unfortunate, this numbernumber isis smallsmall givengiven thethe cult'scult's intentintent to to cause cause massmass fatalitiesfatalities inin thethe majoritymajority of of these these cases. cases. Attempts atat mass-casualtymass-casualty terrorism terrorism include include an an attack attack in in thethe summer of 1993,1993, during whichwhich AumAum membersmembers sprayed whatwhat they believed was anthrax bacteria offoff the roof of anan eight-storyeight-story

ACLURM002160 640640 SAMMY SALAMA AND LYDIALYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

building for four straightstraight days.days.14o14° Another failedfailed attackattack occurredoccurred inin earlyearly MarchMarch 1995,1995, as thethe cult attemptedattempted to spreadspread what theythey believedbelieved was botulinum toxintoxin in thethe TokyoTokyo 141 subway butbut was unableunable toto properly disseminatedisseminate the the agent. agent."' InIn fact,fact, AumAum producedproduced neither Bacillus anthracis nor botulinum toxin. Despite thethe ease ofof acquisitionacquisition ofof precursorprecursor materialsmaterials and and equipment, equipment, thethe highhigh level of technical expertiseexpertise amongamong grougroup p members,members, and and the the relativelyrelatively long long periodsperiods ofof timetime thatthat thethe group waswas able to operate in secretsecret without police intervention, thethe cult was still unable to carrycarry outout aa single single truetrue mass-casualty mass-casualty attack.attack. Al-QaedaAI-Qaeda appears toto be far lessless organized thanthan the Aum Shinrikyo cult had beenbeen beforebefore thethe MarchMarch 19951995 sarin attacks in Tokyo. Additiona"y,Additionally, therethere isis nono evidence toto suggest that the al-Qaedaal-Qaeda network has had access to to the the kindskinds of of sophisticatedsophisticated technology technology oror expertiseexpertise enjoyedenjoyed byby AumAum cultistscultists inin the 1990s. The The case case of of Aum Aum Shinrikyo Shinrikyo thus thus serves serves as as a ahistorical historical testimony testimony to to the the difficulty difficulty ofof developing a true mass-casualtymass-casualty capability capability throughthrough the production ofof CBW CBW agents.agents.

Mass Destruction versus Mass Disruption Radiological Dispersion Device

Many media reports over the past few yearsyears have speculated onon thethe possibility of aa terrorist attack using an RDD, or or dirty dirty bomb.bomb. Indeed,Indeed, instancesinstances of of attempted attempted acquisitionacquisition of radiological materials byby aI-Qaedaal-Qaeda affiliates affiliates have have occurred. occurred. While While it it isis possible thatthat aa terrorist mightmight be be ableable toto acquire acquire radiological radiological material material and and successfully successfully constructconstruct anan RDD,RDD, the likelylikely effectseffects ofof suchsuch anan attackattack areare lessless acuteacute thanthan mostmost reportsreports indicate.indicate. MassMass casualties areare unlikelyunlikely toto result from anan RDDRDD attack.attack. AnAn explosiveexplosive RDD,RDD, which usesuses aa conventional blastblast toto dispersedisperse radiologicalradiological material,material, isis likely to causecause casualties onlyonly inin thethe immediateimmediate vicinityvicinity ofof the the explosion. explosion. InIn addition,addition, these these casualtiescasualties would likelylikely bebe causedcaused by 142 the explosionexplosion itself,itself, rather than by the effects of radiation.142 Even a "passive RDD," whichwhich releases radiologicalradiological materialmaterial manually manually placed placed nearnear aa target, would causecause radiationradiation 143 sickness only only toto thosethose in the immediate area and only after long periodsperiods ofof exposure.exposure.143 The most dangerous scenario would would bebe direct inhalation or ingestion of aa radiologicalradiological substance.substance. An "atmospheric RDD," whichwhich converts radioactive material into aa substancesubstance thatthat cancan bebe carriedcarried through thethe air, air, maymay contaminatecontaminate a a wider wider area area butbut may may not not cause cause massmass casualties sincesince radiationradiation levelslevels would would bebe low afterafter thethe materialmaterial isis dispersed.dispersed. TheThe realreal outcome ofof anyany RDDRDD attackattack would bebe widespreadwidespread panicpanic andand economiceconomic disruption.disruption. ForFor thesethese reasons, anan RDDRDD is is not not soso much much aa weaponweapon ofof mass destructiondestruction asas itit isis aa weaponweapon of massmass disruption. AlthoughAlthough al-Qaedaal-Qaeda hashas expressed anan interestinterest inin acquiring radiological material andand hashas attempted toto acquireacquire suchsuch materialmaterial onon numerousnumerous occasions,occasions, itit does not appear that networknetwork affiliatesaffiliates havehave beenbeen ableable toto constructconstruct anan RDDRDD device.device. While an RDDRDD would bebe muchmuch easiereasier to constructconstruct thanthan aa nuclearnuclear device,device, formidable obstaclesobstacles still exist that cancan preventprevent aa terroristterrorist groupgroup from from successfully successfully carryingcarrying outout anan RDDRDD attack.attack. For one, a group wouldwould havehave toto acquireacquire aa radioactiveradioactive with aa relativelyrelatively short half-life in order to ensureensure maximum radiation. Only a handful of would bebe usefuluseful inin aa radiologicalradiological attack:attack: cobalt-60,cobalt-60, strontium-90,strontium-90, yttrium-90,yttrium-90, iridium-192,iridium-192, cesium-137,cesium-137, plutonium-238,plutonium-238,

ACLURM002161 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 641641

144 radium-226,radium-226, -241, americium-241, and and californium-252. californium-252.'44 ExpertsExperts suggest suggest that that it it isis very very unlikely unlikely toto have aa high number of casualties,casualties, or or eveneven aa largelarge numbernumber ofof people with severesevere radiationradiation sickness,sickness, from from an an RDD RDD attack. attack. Indeed, Indeed, it itis isprobable probable that that only only thosethose individualsindividuals whowho areare closeclose enough enough to to the the devicedevice to to riskrisk sustainedsustained injuries injuries or or death death from from the the explosionexplosion wouldwould receive lethallethal dosesdoses of of radiation.radiation. InIn addition,addition, itit is likelylikely thatthat individuals near anan explosionexplosion wouldwould movemove quicklyquickly fromfrom thethe area,area, thus thus drasticallydrastically reducingreducing thethe chance of radiation sickness.sickness. TheseThese individuals individuals maymay experienceexperience burns burns on on the the skin skin or or changes changes in in the the number number of of white white bloodblood cells,cells, but but wouldwould likelylikely avoidavoid moremore severesevere reactions.reactions. The The only only scenarios scenarios which which could could generate generate high high numbersnumbers ofof fatalitiesfatalities underunder thethe rightright circumstances would would bebe directdirect exposureexposure toto radioactiveradioactive materialmaterial emittingemitting gamma rays, oror injuries sustainedsustained from anan explosionexplosion involvinginvolving radioactiveradioactive 145 shrapnel.shrapnel.145 AlthoughAlthough many sourcessources of radioactiveradioactive isotopesisotopes exist,exist, numerousnumerous obstaclesobstacles can prevent terrorist acquisition.acquisition. For one,one, RussianRussian radioisotope thermal generatorsgenerators and Gamma-Kolos seed irradiatorsirradiators areare radiationradiation "megasources""megasources" that that havehave been cited asas 146 "vulnerable" toto terroristterrorist acquisition.acquisition.146 LargeLarge numbers of radioactiveradioactive isotopesisotopes are alsoalso foundfound inin spentspent fuelfuel fromfrom nuclearnuclear powerpower plants.plants. AlthoughAlthough thesethese sourcessources wouldwould be a terroristterrorist gold mine in termsterms ofof thethe sheersheer amountamount ofof radioactive radioactive material,material, spent fuel isis usually encasedencased in in containerscontainers estimated estimated to to weighweigh one-halfone-half aa metricmetric ton. Also, spent fuel emits extremely highhigh levels of of radiation-aradiation—a fact that would heavilyheavily complicate efforts at transportation.147 Terrorists wouldwould be most likely to acquire radioactive material fromfrom the open market,market, as manymany radioactiveradioactive isotopes are usedused inin commercialcommercial practicespractices suchsuch asas communication technologytechnology andand medicalmedical procedures.procedures. Furthermore,Furthermore, regulatory proceduresprocedures to tracktrack global shipments of radiologicalradiological materialsmaterials used in commercial applications are not as consistent or widespread as thosethose inin place toto regulate the transfer of nuclearnuclear material.material. A real concern isis thatthat terrorists with a high levellevel ofof technicaltechnical expertiseexpertise maymay be ableable toto useuse radiologicalradiological material to contaminatecontaminate a targettarget withoutwithout using using anan explosiveexplosive device.device. Some isotopes can be dissolved and sprayed, whilewhile some can be vaporized,vaporized, or eveneven burned.burned.148148 TheseThese delivery methods would requirerequire specialspecial technicaltechnical skillsskills and expertiseexpertise inin order to carrycarry out anan effectiveeffective terrorist attack.attack. Another concernconcern is the fact that soso manymany al-al­ QaedaQaeda affiliates are willingwilling to die inin thethe processprocess of carryingcarrying outout an an attack.attack. ForFor thisthis reason,reason, if thethe groupgroup isis ableable toto procure procure aa large large amountamount ofof radioactive radioactive material,material, itit maymay bebe lessless concernedconcerned about the technicaltechnical expertiseexpertise required to conductconduct aa sophisticated sophisticated attack;attack; instead,instead, they may opt toto sacrificesacrifice a life inin orderorder toto deliverdeliver aa lethal lethal dosedose ofof radiological radiological materialmaterial toto aa target.target. RadiologicalRadiological material that isis ingestedingested or inhaledinhaled isis thethe mostmost deadly,deadly, andand thisthis cancan onlyonly reallyreally occuroccur inin closeclose proximityproximity toto a a highly highly radioactive radioactive source.source.

CrudeCrude CBWCBW Agents Agents andand MassMass Disruption

SimilarSimilar toto anan RDD,RDD, crudecrude CBWCBW agents can also be usedused asas weapons ofof massmass disruption.disruption. SuchSuch anan attackattack would certainlycertainly instillinstill fearfear andand anxietyanxiety andand wouldwould probably probably have have serious serious economiceconomic consequences.consequences. AA CBW attackattack onon government buildings,buildings, transportationtransportation net-net­ works,works, oror supermarketssupermarkets would mostmost likely likely result result inin the the closure closure of of these these sites sites as as wellwell as as anan overcrowdingovercrowding ofof hospitalshospitals withwith thethe concerned concerned citizens.citizens. OtherOther effectseffects couldcould includeinclude aa

ACLURM002162 642642 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA SALAMA AND AND LYDIA LYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

disproportionatelydisproportionately high demand for vaccinationsvaccinations or other medicalmedical treatments, as well as aa sharpsharp decreasedecrease in in traffictraffic on publicpublic transportationtransportation systems.systems. Additionally, anan agent disseminateddisseminated usingusing anan explosiveexplosive device device could could resultresult inin significantsignificant structural damage. Despite thethe difficulties inherentinherent inin obtaining a truetrue WMDWMD capabilitycapability with CBWCBW agents,agents, itit is clear that such substances areare suitablesuitable asas aa terroristterrorist weapon.weapon. TheThe useuse ofof a chemicalchemical or or biologicalbiological agent,agent, albeitalbeit crude,crude, hashas the the potentialpotential to causecause fear and panic disproportionatedisproportionate toto thethe actual effect of the agent.agent. Thus, ifif the purpose of terrorism is indeedindeed toto terrorize,terrorize, thenthen CBW agentsagents cancan alsoalso bebe usedused toto produce a highly effectiveeffective weapon.weapon. However,However, while while theythey may succeed inin terrorizing a population andand causingcausing massive economic economic disruption, disruption, itit is unlikely thatthat such agents wouldwould be capable of causing mass casualties.

Conventional WeaponsWeapons asas WMD

Some maymay argueargue thatthat massive conventionalconventional weaponsweapons in in thethe hands ofof terrorists couldcould be considered a form ofof WMDWMD andand couldcould serve serve asas anan alternativealternative toto CBRN CBRN agents. Indeed, thethe large majority of al-Qaeda literatureliterature dealingdealing withwith operationaloperational methodsmethods outlineoutline thethe use ofof conventional explosivesexplosives and and guerrilla guerrilla warfare. warfare. This This fact fact does does not not dilutedilute the group'sgroup's intentions and capabilities;capabilities; rather, itit tends toto reinforcereinforce it.it. WhileWhile al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda'sintention intention isis most certainly to attackattack AmericanAmerican and Western influenc!"sinfluences aroundaround thethe globe in whatever way possible, the most successfulsuccessful attacksattacks toto date have utilized conventional weapons or nontraditional weaponsweapons usedused in unconventionalunconventional ways.ways. The most obvious example is the 9/11 attacks in NewNew YorkYork andand Washington,Washington, D.C.,D.C, that killedkilled approximatelyapproximately 3,0003,000 people.people. Other examplesexamples of highlyhighly effectiveeffective conventionalconventional attacksattacks includeinclude thethe U.S. u.s. embassyembassy bombings inin KenyaKenya andand TanzaniaTanzania in 1998,1998, and mostmost recently,recently, numerousnumerous carcar and suicidesuicide bombings inin Iraq.Iraq. Nevertheless,Nevertheless, thesethese successes have have failed failed to to trumptrump thethe appealappeal ofof CBRN CBRN agentsagents asas potentialpotential terroristterrorist weapons. weapons. UtilizingUtilizing CBRNCBRN agents would add a degree of unprecedentedunprecedented fearfear toto anan attackattack andand impartimpart status status on on those those responsible, responsible, althoughalthough thethe actual actual mass-mass­ casualtycasualty effects of such an attack would bebe limited.limited. Despite Despite this this drawback, drawback, thethe al-Qaeda al-Qaeda networknetwork isis aggressivelyaggressively attempting to procureprocure CBRNCBRN agents,agents, although although itit willwill continue to relyrely primarilyprimarily onon conventionalconventional methodsmethods ofof attack.attack.

PossiblePossible Sources ofof CBRNCBRN Acquisition—CountriesAcquisition-Countries of thethe FormerFormer Soviet UnionUnion

MuchMuch hashas beenbeen writtenwritten onon the the dangers dangers ofof terrorist terrorist acquisition acquisition of of CBRN CBRN agentsagents from thethe countriescountries ofof the the former former Soviet . Union. These These accountsaccounts areare notnot totallytotally speculative; speCUlative; asas NikolaiNikolai Patrushev,Patrushev, Chief of thethe RussianRussian FederalFederal Security Service, toldtold journalists on AugustAugust 19,19, 2005,2005, "Terrorists are striving toto gaingain accessaccess toto biological,biological, nuclear nuclear and and chemical chemical arms.arms. WeWe havehave registeredregistered such attemptsattempts andand have informationinformation toto that effect .... Our Our task task isis to stopstop themthem from from havinghaving accessaccess to them."them.,,149149 Indeed,Indeed, formerformer U.S. U.S. intelligenceintelligence officialsofficials havehave statedstated thatthat organized organized crime crime and and corruption corruption in inthe the FSU, FSU, and and particularly particularly in in Russia, Russia, havehave increased increased thethe risk risk of of al-Qaeda al-Qaeda acquiring acquiring CBRN CBRN materialsmaterials fromfrom these these countries.15° countries.150

ACLURM002163 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 643643

EffortsEfforts to to bolsterbolster securitysecurity atat formerformer Soviet weaponsweapons facilitiesfacilities havehave beenbeen underunder wayway sincesince thethe earlyearly 1990s;1990s; however, however, there there are are significant significant obstacles obstacles to to ensuring ensuring the the safetysafety ofof CBRNCBRN materials materials at at these these facilities. facilities. One One of of the the mainmain concerns isis funding: RussianRussian officialsofficials havehave reportedreported thatthat expectedexpected financialfinancial contributions contributions fromfrom foreignforeign countries havehave notnot beenbeen 151 ableable toto meet the securitysecurity needs of several importantimportant facilities. 151 Many of these include "anti-plague""anti-plague" laboratories thatthat secretly suppliedsupplied pathogenspathogens toto the SovietSoviet offensive BW program during the ColdCold War. Because these these facilities facilities were were not not officially officially partpart ofof thethe Soviet 152 BW program,program, they they areare not not eligibleeligible toto receive funding funding fromfrom foreign governments.152 Nuclear expertsexperts havehave stated stated that that itit is possiblepossible al-Qaedaal-Qaeda could could acquireacquire uranium uranium fromfrom thethe FSU toto useuse inin aa crudecrude nuclearnuclear device.device. Others Others believe believe that that aa preferable preferable pathpath toto nuclear acquisition forfor thethe groupgroup would be to obtain anan "off-the-shelf""off-the-shelf' device. Although unlikely, even ifif suchsuch scenariosscenarios come come to to fruition, fruition, significantsignificant obstaclesobstacles toto terroristterrorist acquisition and use of such devices remain. For one,one, manymany SovietSoviet weaponsweapons werewere equippedequipped with permissivepermissive action links (PALs) in in orderorder to enhanceenhance security and prevent unintendedunintended detonation. Additionally, many Russian nuclear nuclear devices devices were were constructed constructed with with plutonium,plutonium, which is more radioactive thanthan HEU and and thus thus moremore likelylikely to to be identified during transportationtransportation 153 through countriescountries thatthat utilizeutilize radiologicalradiological sensorssensors as part of theirtheir securitysecurity procedures.procedures.153 Still, not allall nuclearnuclear devicesdevices were assembled withwith PALs, andand notnot all countries screen for radiological materials moving past their borders. Although therethere is is evidenceevidence thatthat CBRN CBRN materials in the FSU areare vulnerable vulnerable toto criminal or terrorist acquisition,acquisition, it isis unlikelyunlikely thatthat thethe al-Qaeda al-Qaeda network hashas alreadyalready procured these materials, in light of the apparentapparent lacklack of technicaltechnical expertiseexpertise as revealed byby foiledfoiled plots and active monitoring ofof al-Qaeda-sponsored al-Qaeda-sponsored websites. Reports stating that OsamaOsama bin LadenLaden "purchased" biological or chemicalchemical weaponsweapons areare largelylargely speculative,speculative, as areare reportsreports indicatingindicating thatthat binbin LadenLaden waswas ableable toto acquireacquire materialsmaterials for chemicalchemical weapons fromfrom the formerformer SovietSoviet Union during thethe mid-1990s.'mid-1990s.154 Additionally, sourcessources from the InternationalInternational AtomicAtomic EnergyEnergy AgencyAgency havehave claimedclaimed thatthat onlyonly 1010 incidentsincidents ofof theft theft involving involving HEU HEU have have occurred occurred overover the the past past 10 10 years, years, eacheach 155 involvinginvolving lessless thanthan aa kilogram,kilogram, andand nonenone havehave involvedinvolved thethe al-Qaedaal-Qaeda network.155 WhileWhile itit does not appear appear that that aI-Qaeda al-Qaeda hashas succeededsucceeded inin procuringprocuring CBRN CBRN materials from thethe FSU, FSU, it isis unwiseunwise toto discountdiscount thethe network'snetwork's commitmentcommitment toto obtaining obtaining these these materials. materials. InIn JuneJune 2002,2002, forfor example,example, Russia'sRussia's Federal SecuritySecurity ServiceService reported reported anan al-Qaeda attemptattempt to 156 securesecure 1111 poundspounds ofof radioactive radioactive thalliumthallium from from decommissioned decommissioned Russian Russian .submarines.156 ThereThere will surelysurely bebe moremore opportunitiesopportunities for for al-Qaeda al-Qaeda to to procure procure CBRN CBRN materialsmaterials asas longlong asas thesethese materialsmaterials remainremain unsecured.unsecured.

Conclusions:Conclusions: CapabilityCapability versusversus Intent

Open-sourceOpen-source informationinformation suggests suggests that that aI-Qaeda al-Qaeda hashas yetyet toto build build a a real real CBRNCBRN capability for massmaSs destruction. AsAs discussed, an examination of al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's ownown literatureliterature andand manualsmanuals revealsreveals many flaws in its CBRN production production instructions-ainstructions—a fact that wouldwould hinderhinder any any realreal WMDWMD deployment.deployment. However, However, itit is is importantimportant to to note note that that all all evidence evidence from from Western Western sources sources andand al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's own websites and publications indicate that the movementmovement itselfitself andand itsits variousvarious affiliatesaffiliates areare aggressivelyaggressively pursuing such a capability.capability. It is hard to determine ifif and and

ACLURM002164 644644 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMASALAMA ANDAND LYDIA HANSELL

whenwhen thesethese groupsgroups willwill actually attempt toto produce produce CBRN CBRN agents and deliverydelivery systems thatthat could potentially cause mass destruction destruction equal equal to to oror greater thanthan thethe horrendous humanhuman andand capitalcapital lossloss ofof 9/11.9/11. Fortunately, obtainingobtaining a real WMD capabilitycapability that is capable of killing thousands is a difficultdifficult challenge, asas evidencedevidenced byby thethe history of both roguerogue regimesregimes such as Libya and IraqIraq and previous terrorist organizations such as Aum Shinrikyo. Most current evidence suggestssuggests that that al-Qaedaal-Qaeda is is still still farfar awayaway from from a true WMD capability and that mostmost CBRNCBRN agents acquiredacquired byby thisthis group or itsits affiliatesaffiliates areare crudecrude andand moremore suitedsuited forfor small-scalesmall-scale assassinations, contaminations, contaminations, and and poisonings.poisonings. However, thethe factfact thatthat al-Qaeda andand itsits affiliates maymay bebe farfar fromfrom perpetrating a mass casualtycasualty CBRN CBRN attack attack does does not not warrant warrant reducedreduced vigilancevigilance ofof their activities. Even so, itit isis important to keepkeep thethe threatthreat inin perspectiveperspective and not attributeattribute toto thesethese terroriststerrorists any capabilities thatthat they still dodo notnot possess. possess. DoingDoing soso servesserves no tangibletangible purpose;purpose; eveneven without masterymastery ofof CBRN CBRN agents, al-Qaeda andand its affiliates are extremely dangerous and demand the cooperation of thethe UnitedUnited States,States, Europe,Europe, and Arab and Muslim regimes toto pursue aggressive military military and and lawlaw enforcementenforcement tacticstactics that that willwill hinder their operational capabilities, asas well well asas a a series series of of sound, sound, long-term long-term political political policiespolicies that that willwill helphelp cLirbcurb the appeal and recruitment potential ofof thesethese equal-opportunity terrorists. terrorists. TheThe near- and long­long- term dangerdanger inin al-Qaeda's currentcurrent abilityability toto recruit,recruit, indoctrinate,indoctrinate, train,train, and graduate largelarge numbers of suicide jihadis all over the worldworld overshadowsovershadows any any possession possession of a WMD, short of a nuclearnuclear bomb. ItIt cancan bebe arguedargued thatthat thethe most most dangerous dangerous aspectaspect ofof thethe al-Qaedaal-Qaeda network isis itsits ability to recruitrecruit andand replenishreplenish its ranks withwith young jihadis whowho are willingwilling to die for their cause aroundaround thethe globe. This real capacity for regenerationregeneration and export ofof destructivedestructive ideologyideology andand trainingtraining eclipseseclipses any attempt byby thethe group group or or its its affiliates affiliates to to acquire acquire CBRN CBRN agents that currentlycurrently seemseem beyond theirtheir rudimentaryrudimentary technicaltechnical capabilities.capabilities. ItIt isis certainly difficult forfor al-Qaedaal-Qaeda or itsits affiliates, who are on thethe receiving end of the mostmost comprehensivecomprehensive and aggressive counterterrorismcounterterrorism operationoperation inin modern history,history, to engageengage in thethe manufacturemanufacture ofof actualactual high-endhigh-end WMDWMD agentsagents beyondbeyond thethe rudimentaryrudimentary stage,stage, as has beenbeen discussed.discussed. As As for for the the prospectprospect of , however, exhaustiveexhaustive effortsefforts shouldshould bebe mademade toto preventprevent the the al-Qaeda al-Qaeda networknetwork fromfrom acquiringacquiring nuclear nuclear devices devices oror fissilefissile materials thatthat can be usedused to buildbuild suchsuch weapons. weapons. BesidesBesides the technical difficulties inherentinherent inin thethe manufacturemanufacture ofof nuclear nuclear devices,devices, the acquisition of fifissilessile materialsmaterials remainsremains thethe greatestgreatest obstacleobstacle toto nuclear nuclear warhead warhead assembly. assembly. Nevertheless, Nevertheless, shouldshould sufficientsufficient amountsamounts ofof HEUHEU fall intointo thethe hands hands of of al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda, thethe network'snetwork's destructivedestructive potentialpotential wouldwould multiplymultiply exponentially. exponentially. WhenWhen consideringconsidering thethe specterspecter ofof nuclearnuclear weaponsweapons in thethe handshands of al-Qaeda,al-Qaeda, therethere simply is no acceptableacceptable margin ofof error.error. AtAt thethe same same time,time, thethe risk risk fromfrom al-Qaeda's al-Qaeda's useuse ofof conventional conventional terror terror tactics tactics as as seenseen inin recentrecent yearsyears probablyprobably exceedsexceeds anyany currentcurrent risk fromfrom attempts to developdevelop oror deploydeploy WMDWMD agents. While thethe killing potentialpotential ofof these these agentsagents isis theoretically highhigh givengiven modestmodest technicaltechnical and delivery means, it it likely pales inin comparisoncomparison to to the realreal threatthreat ofof conventionalconventional weapons.weapons. Overall,Overall, al-Qaeda'sal-Qaeda's currentcurrent technical knowledgeknowledge andand WMDWMD capabilitycapability are are likelylikely mostmost suitable suitable for for assassinations assassinations ratherrather than than large-scale large-scale attacksattacks aimedaimed

ACLURM002165 Al-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 645645 atat mass casualties. casualties. In In the the near near future, future, the the al-Qaeda al-Qaeda network network is is likely likely to to continue continue toto use conventionalconventional weapons and atypical weapons in creative ways.

NoteNote

EvenEven though though allall toxins are chemicals, they they fallfall underunder thethe purview of the BiologicalBiological Weapons ConventionsConventions (BWC), and and for for this this reason,reason, many many analysts analysts term term them them asas "biological "biological agents."

Disclaimer: TheThe fullfull Internet addresses of of propro al-Qaedaal-Qaeda websites websites are are intentionally intentionally withheld withheld by the authorsauthors forfor securitysecurity reasons.reasons. If youyou havehave anyany questionsquestions aboutabout sources,sources, pleaseplease contactcontact thethe authors directly.

NOTES

1. See U.S.U.S. Dept. Dept. ofof State, Patterns ofof Global Terrorism —- 2000, Appendix B: Background Information on TerroristTerrorist Groups, AprilApril 30,30, 2001,2001, <;>; RohanRohan Gunaratna,Gunaratna, Inside AIAl Qa'ida Global Network of TerrorTerror (New York: Columbia UP, 2002),2002), pp. pp. 54-94. 54-94. 2. U.S. Dept.Dept. ofof State, Patterns of Global Terrorism; , "AI"Al Qa'ida," (May/June 2004); JohnJohn L.L Esposito,Esposito, Unholy War: Terror inin the NameName of IslamIslam (: Oxford UniversityUniversity Press,Press, 2002), pp. 62, 90. 3. InternationalInternational Policy Institute forfor Counter-Terrorism,Counter-Terrorism, "AI-Qa'ida,""Al-Qa'ida," ; >; Jeffrey Bale, "Militant"Militant IslamicIslamic Organizations,"Organizations," lecturelecture delivered to aa workshopworkshop atat thethe Monterey Monterey Institute Institute of of International International Studies, Studies, California,California, USA, Jan.Jan. 10-14,10-14, 2005.2005. 4. U.S. Dept. of State,State, PatternsPatterns ofof Global Global Terrorism.Terrorism. 5. InternationalInternational PolicyPolicy InstituteInstitute for for Counter-Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism, "Al-Qa'ida";"AI-Qa'ida"; "Al "AI Qa'ida's Qa'ida's Fatwa," Fatwa," PBS PBS News, Feb. 23, 1998.1998. 6. NationalNational Memorial Memorial InstituteInstitute forfor thethe Prevention Prevention ofof Terrorism, Terrorism, Terrorism Terrorism KnowledgeKnowledge Database,Database, TerroristTerrorist Group Group Profile: Profile: "AI-Qa'ida," "Al-Qa'ida," . . 7.7. FederationFederation ofof American American Scientists,Scientists, IntelligentIntelligent Resource Resource Program,Program, "Al-Qai'da-The"AI-Qai'da-The Base,"Base," .>. 8.8. CouncilCouncil onon ForeignForeign Relations,Relations, "AI-Qa'ida,""AI-Qa'ida," "Terrorist"Terrorist GroupGroup Profile:Profile: Al-Qa'ida,"AI-Qa'ida," NationalNational MemorialMemorial InstituteInstitute for for the the Prevention Prevention of of Terrorism, Terrorism, Terrorism Terrorism KnowledgeKnowledge Database;Database; "Al-"AI­ Qai'da-TheQai'da-The Base," Federation of AmericanAmerican Scientists;Scientists; Bale, "Militant IslamicIslamiC Organiza-Organiza­ tions."tions." 9.9. "Terrorist"Terrorist GroupGroup Profile:Profile: Al-Qaeida",AI-Qaeida", NationalNational MemorialMemorial InstituteInstitute forfor the PreventionPrevention of Terrorism,Terrorism, TerrorismTerrorism KnowledgeKnowledge Database. Database. 10.10. ABCABC News Transcript of InterviewInterview with with Osama Osama bin bin Laden, Laden, Dec. Dec. 24, 24,1998. 1998. See See alsoalso HamidHamid Mir,Mir, "Osama"Osama Claims Claims He He Has Has Nukes:Nukes: IfIf US US UsesUses N-ArmsN-Arms ItIt WillWill GetGet Same Same Response,"Response," OsamaOsama binbin Ladenladen interviewinterview withwith Hamid Hamid Mir, Mir, Nov. Nov. 10, 10, 2001, 2001, . 11.11. DaveDave Saltonstall,Salton stall, "Pakistan"Pakistan ReportedlyReportedly Warned Warned U.S. U.S. Targets,"Targets," NewNew YorkYork DailyDaily News, News, Aug.Aug. 23,23, 1998;1998; LauraLaura Mansnerus, "Testimony'Testimony atat BombingBombing TrialTrial OutlinesOutlines RecipeRecipe forfor Mayhem,"Mayhem,"

ACLURM002166 646 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA SALAMA AND AND LYDIA LYDIA HANSELL HANSELL

New York Times, July 6, 2001,2001, p.p. B2;B2; c.L. C.L. Staten, Staten, "Dirty "Dirty Bomb Bomb PlotPlot ThwartedThwarted Says Attorney Attorney General," Emergency Net News, June 10,10, 2002;2002; ElaineElaine Sciolino, 'Terror"Terror Verdict Due Today forfor a Frenchman onon TrialTrial inin Morocco," New York Times, Sept. 18,18,2003; 2003; Jordan TV Channell,Channel 1, "Confessions ofof Group Planning Jordan Chemical Attack," BBC Monitoring,Monitoring, April 26, 2004. 12. "Wolf BlitzerBlitzer Reports,"Reports," CNN,CNN, July 31, 2002. 13. Transcript ofof Interview with OsamaOsama bin Laden,Laden, Time, Dec. 24, 1998. 14. Mir, "Osama Claims He Has Nukes." 15. Pamela Hess, "AI "Al QaidaQaida MayMay HaveHave ChemicalChemical Weapons,"Weapons," UnitedUnited Press International,International, Aug. 19,19,2002. 2002. 16. "Insight," CNN,CNN, Aug. 19,19, 2002. 17. "Poison Gas IntendedIntended forfor JordanJordan Attack,"Attack," MSNBC, MSNBC, Jan. 31,31,2000; 2000; Chris HastingsHastings andand David Bamber, "Police Foil TerrorTerror Plot to UseUse Sarin Gas inin London," Daily TelegraphTelegraph (London), Feb. 18, 2001; David Bamber, Chris Hastings, and Rajeev Syal, "bin"bin Laden British Cell Planned Gas AttackAttack onon European Parliament,"Parliament," Sunday Telegraph (London), Sept. 16, 2001; "bin LadenLaden PlannedPlanned NerveNerve GasGas Attack onon Europarliament:Europarliament: Paper," Paper," AgenceAgence France France Presse,Presse, Sept. 16, 2001; "Poison"Poison Gas Plot,"Plot," CBSCBS News, News, April April 27,2004; 27, 2004; "Deadly "Deadly ChemicalChemical PlannedPlanned forfor Use in PotentialPotential BritishBritish BombBomb Plot,"Plot," AgenceAgence FranceFrance Presse,Presse, April 6, 2004;2004; "Al"AI Qa'ida'sQa'ida's Fatwa," PBS News,News, Feb.Feb. 23,23, 1998; "Osmium Tetroxide: A NewNew ChemicalChemical TerrorismTerrorism Weapon," Center for Nonproliferation Studies Studies ResearchResearch Story of the Week,Week, April 13,13, 2004, ;>; "Qa'ida-Linked"Qa'ida-Linked Chemical Attack in Jor-Jor­ dan CouldCould HaveHave KilledKilled 80,000,"80,000," AgenceAgence FranceFrance Presse,Presse, April 26, 2004; "Confessions of Group Planning Jordan Chemical Attack,"Attack," BBC Monitoring, Monitoring, AprilApril 26,26, 2004;2004; "Interview "Interview withwith Mahmud Al-Kharabsha,AI-Kharabsha, Member Member of of thethe Jordanian Parliament andand Former Chief of Jordanian Intelligence," FederalFederal NewsNews Service,Service, April 27, 2004.2004. 18.1 B. Hala Jaber and Nicholas Rufford, "M"M15 15 Foils Poison-Gas Attack Attack onon thethe Tube," Sunday Times (London), Nov. 17,17, 2002. 19. John Lumpkin,Lumpkin, "U.S."U.s. ForcesForces in IraqIraq FindFind SomeSome Cyanide,"Cyanide," AssociatedAssociated Press,Press, Feb. 7, 2004; Douglas Jehl, "U.s."U.S. AidsAids ReportReport EvidenceEvidence Tying Tying AIAl Qa'idaQa'ida toto Attacks,"Attacks," New YorkYork Times,Times, Feb. 10,10,2004. 2004. 20. "Terrorist''Terrorist CBRN:CBRN: MaterialsMaterials andand Effects (U),"(U)," CentralCentral IntelligenceIntelligence Agency, May 2003. 21. Ibid.Ibid. 22. "AI-Qa'ida Made Biological WeaponsWeapons inin Georgia-FrenchGeorgia—French Minister," Moscow News, Jan. 3, 2005; Jihad Salim, "Report"Report onon bin Laden, Zawahiri, Afghanistan," Al-WatanAI-Watan Al-Arabi,AI-Arabi, Oct. 31, 1997,1997, inin Foreign Foreign Broadcasting Broadcasting InformationInformation Services Services (hereafter(hereafter FBIS),FBIS), FTS19971118000479; "AI "Al Qaeda TestedTested Germ Weapons," Reuters,Reuters, Jan.Jan. 1,1,2002. 2002. 23. Paul Daley, "Report SaysSays UBL-Linked Terrorist Groups PossessPossess 'Deadly''Deadly' Anthrax, PlaguePlague Viruses," Melbourne Age, June 4, 2000. 24. AlAI J. Venter,Venter, "Elements"Elements LoyalLoyal to to binbin LadenLaden AcquireAcquire BiologicalBiological AgentsAgents Through'Through the Mail'," Jane's Intelligence ReviewReview 11 (Aug. 1999); Khalid Sharaf ai-Din,al-Din, "Bin"Bin Ladin Men Reportedly PossessPossess BiologicalBiological Weapons," Al-SharqAI-Sharq al-Awsat, March 6,6, 1999.1999. 25. Jeffrey Bartholet, "Terrorist"Terrorist SleeperSleeper Cells,"Cells," Newsweek, Dec.Dec. 9, 2001. 26. "Terrorist''Terrorist CBRN:CBRN: MaterialsMaterials andand Effects (U),"(U)," CentralCentral IntelligenceIntelligence Agency, May 2003. 27. "bin"bin Laden'sLaden's BiologicalBiological Threat,"Threat," BBC,BBC, Oct. 28,28, 2001.

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28.28. MariaMaria Ressa,Ressa, "Reports: AIAl Qaeda [sic][sic] OperativeOperative SoughtSought Anthrax,"Anthrax," CNN, Oct.Oct. 10, 2003; JudithJudith Miller, "U.S."U.s. Has NewNew Concerns AboutAbout Anthrax Readiness,"Readiness," NewNew York Times, Dec.Dec. 28,28, 2003;2003; "Yazid"Yazid Sufaat," TheThe Open Source Threat Network Database,Database, Jan. 26, 2004, << www.trackingthethreat.comwww.trackingthethreat.com >. >. 29.29. "Al-Qaeda:"AI-Qaeda: AnthraxAnthrax Found Found in in al-Qaeda al-Qaeda Home,"Home," Global Global SecuritySecurity Newswire,Newswire, Dec.Dec. 10, 2001; JudithJudith Miller, "Labs Suggest Qaeda Planned to Build Arms, Officials Say," NewNew York Times;Times, Sept.Sept. 14, 2002.2002. 30.30. "Terrorist"Terrorist CBRN: CBRN: MaterialsMaterials and EffectsEffects (U),"(U}," Central Intelligence Agency, May 2003. 31. EdEd Johnson,Johnson, "Report:"Report: Al-QaidaAI-Qaida MadeMade BombBomb inin Afghanistan," Afghanistan," Associated ,Press, Jan. 30, 2003.2003. 32. AdamAdam NathanNathan andand DavidDavid Leppard,Leppard, "Al-Qa'ida's"AI-Qa'ida's Men Held Secret Meeting Meeting toto Build 'Dirty'Dirty Bomb,'"Bomb,— The Times (London), Oct. 14, 2001. 33. JamieJamie McIntyre, Mcintyre, "Zubaydah: "Zubaydah: al-Qaeda al-Qaeda HadHad 'Dirty'Dirty Bomb'Bomb' Know-How,"Know-How," CNN,CNN, April 22,22,2002; 2002; "AI-Qaeda"Al-Qaeda Claims 'Dirty'Dirty Bomb' Know-How,"Know-How," BBC,BBC, April 23,23, 2002. 34. DanDan EggenEggen andand SusanSusan Schmidt, "'Dirty—Dirty Bomb'Bomb' PlotPlot Uncovered,Uncovered, U.S.u.s. Says:Says: Suspected AIAl Qaeda OperativeOperative HeldHeld asas 'Enemy'Enemy Combatant,'" Combatant"' Washington Post, June 11, 2002. 35. MuhammadMuhammad Wajdi Wajdi Qandyl, Qandyl, "Searching "Searching forfor Weapons Weapons ofof Mass Mass DestructionDestruction and Al-Qa'ida,"AI-Qa'ida," AI-AkhbarAl-Akhbar (Cairo),(Cairo), Jan. 18, 2004. 36. BenBen English,English, "Britain"Britain ChargesCharges EightEight OverOver U.S.U.s. 'Terror'Terror Campaign',"Campaign'," Advertiser, Aug. 18,18, 2004. 37. NickNick Fielding, Fielding, "bin"bin Laden's Laden's DirtyDirty Bomb Bomb Quest Quest Exposed,"Exposed," TheThe TimesTimes (London),(London), Dec.Dec. 19,19, 2004. 38. "Al-Qa'ida"AI-Qa'ida ClaimsClaims 'Dirty'Dirty Bomb'Bomb' Know-How.";Know-How."; McIntyre,Mcintyre, "Zubaydeh:"Zubaydeh: al Qa'ida had 'Dirty Bomb' Know-How;"Know-How;" "Frenchman "Frenchman Faces Faces Trial Trial Over Over Casablanca Casablanca Blasts;Blasts; Middle-ClassMiddle-Class Islamic Convert Masterminded SuicideSuicide Attacks," Daily TelegraphTelegraph (London),(London), July 20,20, 2003.2003. 39. MarieMarie Calvin, Calvin, "Holy"Holy War War WithWith U.S. u.s. inin HisHis Sights,"Sights," TimesTimes (London),(London), Aug.Aug. 16,16, 1998;1998; RiyadRiyad 'Alam'Alam al-Din,ai-Din, "Report"Report LinksLinks BinBin Ladin,Ladin, NuclearNuclear Weapons," WotanWatan al-Arabiai-Arabi (Lebanon),(Lebanon), Nov. 13,13, 1998;1998; Emil Torabi, "bin Laden'sLaden's NuclearNuclear Weapons,"Weapons," MuslimMuslim MagazineMagazine (Winter(Winter 1998).1998). 40. "Arab"Arab SecuritySecurity SourcesSources Speak of aa NewNew Scenario Scenario forfor Afghanistan: Afghanistan: SecretSecret RoamingRoaming NetworksNetworks ThatThat ExchangeExchange NuclearNuclear Weapons for Drugs,"Drugs," Al-ShargAI-Sharq al-Awsatal-Awsat (London),(London), Dec.Dec. 24,24,2000. 2000. 41.41. UthmanUthman Tizghart, Tizghart, "Does "Does Bin Bin Ladin Ladin Really Really Possess Possess WeaponsWeapons ofof Mass Mass Destruction?Destruction? Tale of RussianRussian Mafia Boss SimionSimion MogilevichMogilevich WhoWho Supplied Bin Ladin With the NuclearNuclear 'Dirty Bomb',"Al-MajallahBomb'," AI-Majal/ah (London),(London), Nov.Nov. 25,25, 2001; "AI-Majallah"Al-Majallah Obtains Serious InformationInformation on al-Qa'ida'sal-Qa'ida's Attempt toto Acquire Acquire NuclearNuclear Arms,"Arms," Al-MajallahAI-Majal/ah (London),(London), Sept.Sept. 8,8, 2002;2002; "N-"N­ WeaponsWeapons MayMay bebe inin U.S.U.s. Already,"Already," DailyDaily Telegraph Telegraph (Sydney),(Sydney), Nov.Nov. 14,14, 2001.2001. 42.42. TobyToby Harnden, Harnden, "Rogue "Rogue Scientists Scientists GaveGave binbin Laden Laden Nuclear Nuclear Secrets," Secrets," DailyDaily Telegraph Telegraph (London),(London), Dec.Dec. 13,13, 2001;2001; PeterPeter Baker,Baker, "Pakistani"Pakistani Scientist Who Met binbin LadenLaden FailedFailed Polygraphs,Polygraphs, RenewingRenewing Suspicions,"Suspicions," WashingtonWashington Post,Post, MarchMarch 3, 3, 2002; 2002; Susan Susan B.B. GlasserGlasser andand KamranKamran Khan,Khan, "Pakistan"Pakistan ContinuesContinues ProbeProbe ofof Nuclear Nuclear Scientists," Scientists," WashingtonWashington Post,Post, Nov.Nov. 14,14,2001. 2001. 43.43. "Pakistani "Pakistani Told Told al-Qaeda al-Qaeda Operatives Operatives to to Acquire Acquire Nuclear Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, U.S. U.s. Investigators Investigators Say," Say," NuclearNuclear ThreatThreat Initiative,Initiative, Feb.Feb. 11,11, 2005,2005, ;;

ACLURM002168 648648 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA ANDAND LYDIALYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

FrankFrank Davies,Davies, "U.S."U.S. Alleges Alleges Pakistani Pakistani Businessman Businessman Urged Urged al at Qaeda Qaeda to to AcquireAcquire Nuclear Weapons,"Weapons," Miami Herald, Feb. 11, 2005.2005. 44.44. Max Delaney, "Under"Under Attack al-Qaedaal-Qaeda Makes Nuclear Claim," Moscow News, March 3, 2004.2004. 45.45. Kimberly McCloud andand Matthew Osbourne, "WMD Terrorism andand Osama bin Ladin," Center forfor Nonproliferation Studies, Nov.Nov. 20, 20, 2001, 2001, <. >. 46. "AI-Qaida"Al-Qaida Said to PossessPossess Nuclear Arms," Associated Press, Feb.Feb. 9,9, 2004;2004; "AI-Qaida"Al-Qaida May Have NuclearNuclear Weapons," Weapons," Aljazeera.net, Aljazeera.net, Feb. Feb. 8, 8,2004, 2004, ; >; "AI­"Al- Qaida Does Not HaveHave OurOur NuclearNuclear BombsBombs InsistsInsists Ukraine," Scotsman, Feb. 11, 2004; Nikolai Sokov, "Suitcase"Suitcase Nukes:Nukes: Permanently Permanently Lost Lost Luggage," Luggage," Center Center for for NonproliferationNonproliferation Studies, Feb. 13, 2004,2004, ; JaneJane Macartney,Macartney, "Al-Qaeda"AI-Qaeda Unlikely to HaveHave AttainedAttained NuclearNuclear Know-How,"Know-How," Reuters,Reuters, Feb. 6, 2004. 47. Earl Lane and Knut Royce,Royce, "Nuclear Aspirations? Sources:Sources: bin bin Laden Laden Tried Tried toto Obtain Enriched Uranium," Newsday (New York), Sept. 19, 2001; Benjamin Weiser,Weiser, "U.S."U.s. SaysSays Bin Ladin Aide Tried to GetGet NuclearNuclear Weapons," New York Times, Sept. 26, 1998. 48. Bill Gertz, "Nuclear Plants Targeted:'Targeted," Washington Times, Jan. 31, 2002; JohnJohn J. Lumpkin, "Diagrams ShowShow InterestInterest inin Nuke Nuke Plants," Plants," Associated Associated Press,Press, Jan.Jan. 30, 2002. 49. Craig Whitlock, "Germany"Germany ArrestsArrests Two AlAI QaedaQaeda Suspects,"Suspects," Washington Post, Jan. 24, 2005; "Germany: AlAI Qaeda Suspects Held," Facts on File World NewsNews Digest,Digest, Jan.Jan. 27, 2005, ;>; "Iraqi "Iraqi Al-Qaeda AI-Qaeda SuspectSuspect Held inin GermanyGermany Sent by bin Laden,"Laden:' AgenceAgence France France Presse,Presse, Jan. 29, 2005. 50. Martin Arostegui,Arostegui, "Terrorism"Terrorism in MoroccoMorocco DeeperDeeper ThanThan Imagined,"Imagined," UnitedUnited PressPress International,Intemational, June 7, 2003;2003; "Frenchman on Trial in MoroccoMorocco OverOver SuicideSuicide Bombings,"Bombings," Agence FranceFrance Presse,Presse, Aug. 25, 2003. 51. "Report LinksLinks Bin-Ladin,Bin-Ladin, NuclearNuclear Weapons,"Weapons," Al-WatanAI-Watan Al-Arabi,AI-Arabi, Nov.Nov. 13,13, 1998,1998, inin FBIS,FBIS, FTS19981113001081;FTS 19981113001081; "Report "Report Cites Cites French French 'Expert' 'Expert' on on bin bin LadenLaden AcquisitionAcquisition of NuclearNuclear Weapons," LondonLondon Al-Majallah,AI-Majallah, Nov. Nov. 25, 25, 2001, 2001, in in FBIS, FBIS, GMP20020108000065.GMP20020108000065. 52. Toby Harnden,Harnden, "Rogue"Rogue ScientistsScientists GaveGave binbin LadenLaden NuclearNuclear Secrets,"Secrets," DailyDaily TelegraphTelegraph (London),(London). Dec. 12, 2001; Peter Baker, "Pakistani"Pakistani ScientistScientist WhoWho Met binbin LadenLaden FailedFailed Polygraphs,Polygraphs, RenewingRenewing Suspicions,"Suspicions," WashingtonWashington Post,Post, MarchMarch 3,3, 2002;2002; SusanSusan B.B. GlasserGlasser and KamranKamran Khan,Khan, "Pakistan Continues Probe of NuclearNuclear Scientists,"Scientists:' WashingtonWashington Post,Post, Nov.Nov. 14,14,2001. 2001. 53.53. "Islamist"Islamist SaysSays 'More Than 50'50' SuicideSuicide BombersBombers Recruited,Recruited, Most inin UK,"UK," BBCBBC Worldwide Monitoring,Monitoring, MayMay 6, 6, 2003;2003; "Italian"Italian AideAide ConfirmsConfirms RiskRisk ofof BiochemicalBiochemical TerroristTerrorist AttacksAttacks in Italy,"Italy," LaLa StampaStampa (Italy),(Italy), Feb.Feb. 12,12,2003, 2003, FBIS, FBIS, EUP20030212000044.EUP20030212000044. 54.54. JeffreyJeffrey Bale,Bale, Anjali Bhattacharjee, Eric Croddy,Croddy, andand RichardRichard Pilch, "Ricin Found in London:London: AnAn aI-Qa'idaal-Qa'ida Connection?"Connection?" CenterCenter forfor NonproliferationNonproliferation Studies, Studies, Jan.Jan. 23,23, 2003;2003; RichardRichard Norton-Taylor,Norton-Taylor, NickNick Hopkins,Hopkins, andand JonJon Henley,Henley, "Poison suspect trained atat al-Qaidaal-Qaida camp,"camp:' TheThe GuardianGuardian (London),(London), Jan.Jan. 10,10, 2003;2003; VasiliyVasiliy Sergeyev, "London"London PoisonersPoisoners Came from Chechnya,"Chechnya:' GazetaGazeta (Moscow),(Moscow), Jan.Jan. 10,10, 2003,2003, inin FBIS, FBIS, CEP20030110000097;CEP2003011 0000097; "France,"France, UKUK securitysecurity followfollow trail trail of of new new terrorist terrorist structures structures with with Chechen Chechen cell," cell," ltar-Tass Itar-Tass NewsNews AgencyAgency (Moscow),(Moscow), Jan.Jan. 13,13, 2003,2003, inin FBIS, FBIS, CEP20030113000116;CEP20030113000116; "Domestic"Domestic MinisterMinister SaysSays RicinRicin

ACLURM002169 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 649649

LaboratoriesLaboratories FoundFound in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge," Moscow InterfaxInterfax inin Russian,Russian, Feb. 8,8, 2003,2003, inin FBISFBIS CEP20030208000036.CEP20030208000036. 55.55. BaleBale etet al.,aL, "Ricin"Ricin FoundFound inin London:London: An al-Qa'ida Connedion?";Connection?"; "Terror'Terror Police FindFind DeadlyDeadly Poison," BBCBBC News, News, . >. 56.56. Duncan Campbell,Campbell, "The'The Ricin Ring That Never Was," (London),(London), AprilApril 14, 2005;2005; "Ricin "Ricin PlotPlot TriggersTriggers UK AsylumAsylum Row," CNN News, AprilApril 14,2005.14, 2005. 57.57. Campbell,Campbell, ''The'The Ricin Ring That Never Was." 58.58. WalterWalter Pincus, "London"London Ricin Finding Called a False Positive," Washington Post, AprilApril 14, 2005; "Police"Police MurdererMurderer Appeal Dismissed," BBC News, News, July July 19, 19, 2005, 2005, < < http://news.bbc. http://news.bbc. co.uk/2Ihiluk_news/4695447.stmco.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4695447.stm >. >. 59.59. Duncan Campbell, Vikram Dodd, RichardRichard Norton-Taylor, and RosieRosie Cowan, "Police"Police Killer Gets 17 YearsYears for for PoisonPoison Plot,"Plot," The Guardian (London), April 14, 2003. 60. Eliza GriswoldGriswold Serget,Serget, "Makeshift "Makeshift RicinRicin Labs Labs Linked Linked to to bin Laden'sLaden's Men," The TimesTimes (London), April 6, 2003. 61. William Safire,Satire, "Saddam"Saddam andand Terror," New York Times, Aug. 22, 2002. 62. "US Knew of BioterrorBioterror TestsTests in Iraq,"Iraq," BBCBBC News, Aug. 20, 2002; Isam'ilIsamil Zayir, "Ansar al­al- Islam GroupGroup Accuses [Jalal][Jalai] Talabani Talabani of of Spreading Spreading Rumors Rumors About About itsits CooperationCooperation withwith al­al- Qa'ida," AI-Hayah,Al-Hayah, Aug. 22, 2002. 63. Jonathan Schanzer, Al-Qa'ida'sAI-Qa'ida:s Armies: Middle East Affiliate Groups and the Next Generation of Terror Terror (New York: Washington InstituteInstitute for for Near Near East East Policy,Policy, 2005), citingciting BartBart Gellman, "U.S."U.s. SuspedsSuspects AIAl Qa'idaQa'ida GotGot Nerve Agent from Iraqis;Iraqis; Analysts:Analysts: Chemical May be VX, and Was Smuggled Via Turkey," WashingtonWashington Post, Dec. 12, 2002. 64. Jason Burke, "AI"Al Qa'ida." 65. "Ansar al-Islam,"ai-Islam," Federation of AmericanAmerican Scientists,Scientists, April 30,30, 2004.2004. 66. Schanzer, Citingciting "Terror HandbookHandbook FoundFound atat Ansar Ansar al-Islamai-Islam Camp:Camp: Report,"Report," AssociatedAssociated Foreign Press,Press, April 9,9, 2003.2003. 67. Schanzer, citingciting !smallIsma'il Zayir,Zayir, "Ansar"Ansar al-Islamai-Islam GroupGroup AccusesAccuses TalabaniTalabani ofof SpreadingSpreading RumorsRumors About itsits CooperationCooperation withwith al-Qa'ida,"al-Qa'ida," Al-Hayat,AI-Hayat, Aug.Aug. 22,22, 2002;2002; Robin Wright, "Wanted"Wanted IraqiIraqi MayMay bebe Al-Qa`idaAI-Qa'ida Link,Link, LosLos Angeles Times, Dec.Dec. 9, 2002; Schanzer, interviewinterview with BarhamBarham Salih,Salih, Jan.Jan. 10,10, 2003.2003. 68.68. "Afghan"Afghan Alliance—UBLAlliance-UBL TryingTrying toto Make Make ChemicalChemical Weapons,"Weapons," ParwanParwan Payam-e-Mojahed,Payam-e-Mojahed, Dec.Dec. 23,23, 1999.1999. 69.69. JohnJohn McWethy,McWethy, "bin"bin Laden Laden Set Set toto Strike Strike Again?" Again?" ABC ABC News, News, JuneJune 16,16, 1999.1999. 70.70. DominicDominic Evans,Evans, "U.S."U.s. Troops Found AfghanAfghan BiologicalBiological Lab,"Lab," Reuters,Reuters, MarchMarch 22,22, 2002;2002; MichaelMichael R.R. Gordon, "U.S."U.s. Says it it FoundFound Qaeda Lab Being Built to ProduceProduce Anthrax," NewNew YorkYork Times,Times, MarchMarch 23,23, 2002.2002. 71.71. "Ricin"Ricin FoundFound inin Afghanistan,"Afghanistan," GlobalGlobal SecuritySecurity Newswire,Newswire, Jan.Jan. 8,8, 2003,2003, . 72.72. JudithJudith Miller, Miller, "Lab "Lab Suggests Suggests Qa'idaQa'ida PlannedPlanned toto Build Build Arms, Arms, Officials Officials Say," Say," NewNew YorkYork Times,Times, Sept.Sept. 14,14, 2002.2002. 73.73. "Al-Qa`ida"AI-Qa'ida OperativesOperatives DiscussedDiscussed WMD Attacks WhileWhile TrainingTraining PriorPrior toto 9/11, 9/11, Report Report Says," Says," GlobalGlobal SecuritySecurity Newswire,Newswire, JuneJune 16,16, 2004.2004. 74.74. "Terrorist"Terrorist CBRN: CBRN: Materials and EffectsEffects (U),"(U)," Central IntelligenceIntelligence Agency,Agency, MayMay 2003.2003.

ACLURM002170 650 SAMMY SALAMA AND LYDIALYDIA HANSELLHANSELL

75. Alan Culluson andand Andrew Higgins, "Computer in KabulKabul Holds Chilling Memos," Wall Street Journal,Journal, Dec. 31, 200i;2001; "Report:"Report: AIAl Qa'ida Computer HadHad PlansPlans For Bio-Weapons," Reuters, Dec. 21, 2001. 76. Jason Burke, AI-Qa'idaAl-Qa'ida Casting a Shadow of Terror Terror (London: I.B.LB. Tauris, 2003), p. 187. 77. Gunaratna, Inside AIAl Qa'ida Global Network of Terror, p. 49. 78. Burke, AI-Qa'idaAl-Qa'ida Casting a Shadow of Terror, p. 187. 79. U.S.U.s. DistrictDistrict Court,Court, SouthernSouthern DistrictDistrict of New York, United States of America Vs.Vs. Osama bin Laden: TestimonyTestimony ofof JamalJamal AhmadAhmad al-Fadl,al-Fadi, Feb. 6-13,2001,6-13, 2001, pp. 292, 366, 524-26.524-26. 80. Gunaratna, Inside AI Qa'ida Global Network of Terror, Terror, p.36.p. 36. 81. Ibid. 82. Ibid, p. 34. 83. "Jihad AgainstAgainst thethe JewsJews andand CrusadersCrusaders —- World IslamicIslamic Front Statement,"FederationStatement,"Federation of American Scientists,Scientists, Feb. 23, 1998,1998, . > 84. Recently, thethe London-based Arabic newspaper, alal-Sharq-Sharq al-Awsat,al-Awsat, obtained a manuscript authored by AbuAbu WalidWalid al-Masri,al~Masri, a leading al-Qaeda ideologue ideologue and and aa membermember ofof bin Laden's inner circle. InIn thisthis manuscript, "The Story ofof thethe : FromFrom thethe Entry toto Afghanistan to the FinalFinal Exodus withwith ," the author reveals manymany ofof the internal dynamics thatthat led to thethe al-Qaeda al-Qaeda decisiondecision to pursuepursue aa WMDWMD capability.capability. Through hishis membership in the MajlisMajlis al-Shura (al-Qaeda's ruling ruling body), body), the the author author participatedparticipated in the meetings in whichwhich al-Qaedaal-Qaeda leadership debateddebated the the benefits ofof pursuingpursuing aa WMDWMD capability and the impact suchsuch a move would havehave on the global Jihadi movement and the actionsactions of thethe UnitedUnited StatesStates inin thethe region.region. "Book:"Book: TheThe Story of thethe ArabArab Afghans,"Afghans," Asharq Alawsat, Dec. 8,2004,8, 2004, ; >, NickNick Fielding,Fielding, "bin"bin Laden'sLaden's dirtydirty bombbomb questquest exposed,"exposed," The TimesTimes Online, Dec. 19,19, 2004. 85. "Book: The Story of the ArabArab Afghans,"Afghans," Asharq Alawsat. 86. Ibid.Ibid. 87. Ibid.Ibid. 88. Ibid.Ibid. 89. ,Sageman, UnderstandingUnderstanding TerrorTerror NetworksNetworks (Philadelphia:(Philadelphia: University of PennsylvaniaPennsylvania Press, 2004), p. 22. 90. Anonymous, ImperialImperial Hubris:Hubris: WhyWhy thethe WestWest isis LosingLosing thethe WarWar onon TerrorTerror (Dulles:(Dulles: Brassey's,Brassey's, 2004), p. 153.153. 91. Ibid,Ibid, p. 156.156. 92. Ibid.Ibid. 93. Ibid.Ibid. 94. "AI-Qa'ida Denies JordanJordan WMDWMD Plot,"Plot," BBeBBC News, News, April April 30, 30, 2004, 2004, . . 95. PeterPeter Bergen, "Reading al-Qaeda,"al-Qaeda," WashingtonWashington Post,Post, Sept. 11,11,2005. 2005. 96. Reuven Paz, "Global"Global JihadJihad andand WMD: Between MartyrdomMartyrdom and Mass Destruction," in Hillel Fradkin,Fradkin, HusainHusain HaqqaniHaqqani andand EricEric Brown,Brown, eds.,eds., CurrentCurrent TrendsTrends in IslamistIslamist IdeologyIdeology (Washington(Washington D.C.:D.C: Hudson Institute, 2005),2005), p. 82. 97. Ibid.Ibid. 98. "NYPD"NYPD Officials Reveal London BombingBombing Details,"Details," AssociatedAssociated Press,Press, Aug. 4, 2005.2005.

ACLURM002171 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 651651

99.99. StephenStephen Ulph,Ulph, "For"For Mujahideen, Bomb-Making Information ReadilyReadily Accessible Online,"Online," Jamestown,Jamestown, Aug.Aug. 2, 2005. 100. "Military"Military PreparationPreparation —- Peroxide Acetone,"Acetone," Mausu'at al-Aqsa al-Jihadiya -- thethe Aqsa JihadiJihadi Encyclopedia Website.Website. 101. "Table"Table of Contents," Mausu'a al 'Aidad, The Preparation Encyclopedia Website. 102. Ibid.Ibid. 103. "Biological"Biological Weapons," al Tawhid Wal Jihad Website. 104. Ibid. 105. Reuven Paz,Paz, "Global "Global Jihad Jihad and and WMD: WMD: Between Between Martyrdom Martyrdom andand Mass Destruction,"Destruction," p. 83. 106. Ibid. 107. Layth ai-Islam,al-Islam, "Nuclear"Nuclear Preparation Encyclopedia," al-Firdaws,al-Firdaws, Oct. 6, 2005. 108. "Biological Weapons," al Tawhid Wal Jihad Website. 109. Ansar al-Qa'ida, "Encyclopedia"Encyclopedia of of Poisons," Mausu'aMausu'a alal 'Aidad —- TheThe PreparationPreparation Encyclopedia Website; Website; "All "All ThatThat Relates to to ChemicalChemical WeaponWeapon (Mustard(Mustard Gas)Gas) A A LotLot ofof Important andand RareRare InformationInformation forfor the the First First Time," Time," al-Ma'asada al-Ma'asada alal JihadiyaJihadiya —- The Jihadi Lion's Den Website. 110. "The Camera Complains,Complains, CarryCarry MeMe andand EmbarrassEmbarrass the the Tyrants," Tyrants," ManbarManbar SuriaSuria al-Islami al-Islami - - The Syria Islamic Website, May 2005. 111. Dr. Raymond Zilinskas,Zilinskas, Director Director ofof thethe ChemicalChemical andand BiologicalBiological WeaponsWeapons NonproliferationNonproliferation ,4;!iProgram=Program at at the the CenterCenter forfor Nonproliferation Studies, InterviewInterview by author,author, Monterey,Monterey, California, Aug. 4, 2005. 112. "Declaration ofof Jihad Jihad AgainstAgainst thethe Tyrants Tyrants — - LessonLesson Sixteen," The Smoking Gun Website; Abu HadhifaHadhifa al-Shami,al-Shami, "A CourseCourse inin PopularPopular PoisonsPoisons andand DeadlyDeadly Gases," Gases," IslamicIslamic MediaMedia Center, Mausu'a al 'Aidad'Aidad —- TheThe PreparationPreparation EncyclopediaEncyclopedia Website;Website; Abdel-Aziz,Abdel-Aziz, "The Mujahideen PoisonPoison Handbook,"Handbook," Feb.Feb. 7,7, 1996;1996; AnsarAnsar al-Qa'ida, "Encyclopedia of Poisons,"Poisons," Mausu'a alal'Aidad 'Aidad —- The Preparation Encyclopedia Website. 113. Ansar al-Qa'ida, "Encyclopedia"Encyclopedia ofof Poisons;" "A""All That Relates toto the ChemicalChemical WeaponWeapon (Mustard(Mustard Gas)Gas) aa LotLot ofof Important andand RareRare Information forfor the the First First Time," Time," aI-Ma'asada al-Ma'asada alal Jihadiya —- TheThe Jihadi Lion's Den Website. 114.114. al-Shami,al-Shami, "A Course in Popular PoisonsPoisons and Deadly Gases;" Abdel-Aziz, "The Mujahideen PoisonPoison Handbook;"Handbook;" AnsarAnsar al-Qa`ida,al-Qa'ida, "Encyclopedia of Poisons."Poisons./I 115.115. al-Shami,al-Shami, "A Course in Popular PoisonsPoisons and DeadlyDeadly Gases;"Gases;" Abdel-Aziz, "The Mujahideen PoisonPoison Handbook;"Handbook;" AnsarAnsar al-Qa'ida,al-Qa'ida, "Encyclopedia of Poisons."Poisons." 116.116. 'The"The Biological Biological Weapon," Weapon," Mausu'a Mausu'a alal E'adad E'adad —- TheThe PreparationPreparation EncyclopediaEncyclopedia Website.Website. 117.117. Ibid.;Ibid.; MichaelMichael Pelczar, Pelczar, RogerRoger Reid, Reid, andand E.C.S. E.C.S. Chan, MicrobiologyMicrobiology (New(New York:York: McGraw-Hill,McGraw-Hi", 1977),1977), pp. 97,108-10,114,129-30,136-40,145,217,224,644-45,659.97, 108-10, 114, 129-30, 136-40, 145, 217, 224, 644-45, 659. 118.118. "The"The NuclearNuclear Bomb,"Bomb," al-Khaymaal-Khayma -—the the TentTent Website; "Documentation"Documentation andand DiagramsDiagrams of thethe AtomicAtomic Bomb,"Bomb," OutlawOutlaw Labs Labs (No(No publicationpublication oror postingposting datedate provided).provided). 119.119. AbuAbu al-Usoodal-Usood al-Faqir,al-Faqir, "Instances ofof Radiation Pollution from 1945-1987,"1945 -1987," al-Farouq al-Farouq Website.Website. 120.120. "How"How to to Build Build Your Your Own Own H-Bomb H-Bomb at at Home," Home," al-Ma'asada al-Ma'asada al al Jihadiya Jihadiya — - TheThe JihadiJihadi Lion'sLion's DenDen Website,Website, MarchMarch 2005.2005. 121.121. LaythLayth al-Islam,ai-Islam, "Nuclear"Nuclear PreparationPreparation Encyclopedia,"Encyclopedia," alal-Firdaws-Firdaws Website,Website, Oct.Oct. 6,6, 2005.2005. 122.122. Ibid.Ibid.

ACLURM002172 652 SAMMYSAMMY SALAMA SALAMA AND AND LYDIA LYDIA HANSELL HANSELL

123. Ibid. 124. Richard Pilch and Raymond Zilinskas, eds., EncyclopediaEncycfopedia of DefenseDefense (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Liss, 2005), p.76. 125. Eric Croddy, Chemical and BiologicalBiological Warfare:Warfare: AA ComprehensiveComprehensive Survey for thethe ConcernedConcerned Citizen (New York: Copernicus, 2002), p. 14. 126. Ibid., pp.pp. 17-18.17-18. 127. John Mintz, "Technical"Technical HurdlesHurdles SeparateSeparate Terrorists From Biowarfare,"Biowarfare," Washington Post, Dec. 30, 2004; Dafna Linzer,Linzer, "Nuclear"Nuclear CapabilitiesCapabilities MayMay EludeElude Terrorist,Terrorist, ExpertsExperts Say,"Say," Washington Post, Dec. 29, 2004. 128. "Learn my Mujahid BrotherBrother HowHow to to Manufacture Manufacture Poisons," Poisons," al-Ma'asada al-Ma'asada atal JihadiyaJihadiya —- The Jihadi Lion's Den Website, Nov. 13,13,2004. 2004. 129. Ibid.Ibid. 130. Ibid.Ibid. 131. "The BiologicalBiological Weapon,"Weapon," Mausu'aMausu'a atal E'adadE'adad —- The PreparationPreparation EncyclopediaEncyclopedia Website; Abu al-Usood al-Faqir, "Instances"Instances ofof Radiation PollutionPollution from 1945-1987,"1945-1987," al-Farouqal-Farouq Website. 132. Richard Stone, "Agencies Plan ExchangeExchange With Libya'sLibya's FormerFormer Weaponeers,"Weaponeers," Science Magazine, April 8, 2005. 133. John Mintz, "Technical"Technical HurdlesHurdles SeparateSeparate Terrorists From Biowarfare,"Biowarfare," Washington Post, Dec. 30, 2004. 134. David Kaplan, "Aum ShinrikyoShinrikyo (1995),"(1995)," in JonathanJonathan Tucker,Tucker, ed., ToxicToxic TerrorTerror (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2001), 2001), pp. pp. 207-26. 207-26. 135. Ibid.Ibid. 136. U.S.U.s. Congress,Congress, Senate, Senate, Committee Committee on on Governmental Governmental Affairs,Affairs, Permanent Permanent Subcommittee Subcommittee on InvestigationsInvestigations (Minority Staff),Staff), Staff Statement,Statement, Hearings onon GlobalGlobal ProliferationProliferation of WeaponsWeapons of Mass Destruction: A Case StudyStudy onon the Aum Shinrikyo, Oct. 31, 1995, cited by Kaplan.Kaplan. 137. "Aum BuildingsBuildings YieldYield Evidence of Bio-weapons," DailyDaify Yomiuri, April 2, 1995, p. 1; "Article"Article Views Cult Biological Weapons Activities," Shukan Yomiuri (Japan), April 30,30, 1995,1995, inin FBIS,FBIS, FTS19950430000005. 138. Kaplan, "Aum ShinrikyoShinrikyo (1995),"(1995)," inin Tucker,Tucker, ed.,ed., ToxicToxic Terror, pp. 207-26. 139. Ibid.Ibid. 140. "Aum TiedTied to AnthraxAnthrax Germ Production," Daily Yomiuri, Oct. 12, 1995, p. 2; "Aum LeadersLeaders Behind ReleaseRelease ofof Anthrax Virus in Tokyo,"Tokyo," JapanJapan EconomicEconomic Newswire,Newswire, July 26,26, 1995;1995; "Aum ReleasedReleased Anthrax in TokyoTokyo inin 1993:1993: Police,"Police," JapanJapan EconomicEconomic Newswire,Newswire, July 25,25, 1995. 141. "Aum MadeMade DevicesDevices to SpraySpray Bacterium,"Bacterium," DailyDaily Yomiuri,Yomiuri, June 17, 1995, p. 2; "Aum"Aum Cult Was to SpraySpray KillerKiller BacteriaBacteria inin TokyoTokyo Subway:Subway: Report,"Report," AgenceAgence France France Presse,Presse, June 17,17, 1995. 142.142. "Fact"Fact SheetSheet on DirtyDirty Bombs,"Bombs," U.S.u.s. NuclearNuclear Regulatory Commission Website, Website, . >. 143.143. "Terrorist"Terrorist CBRN:CBRN: MaterialsMaterials andand Effects (U)," Central Intelligence Agency, May 2003.2003.

ACLURM002173 AL-QAEDAAL-QAEDA AND AND WMD WMD 653653

144.144. PeterPeter D.D. ZimmermanZimmerman andand CherylCheryl Loeb,Loeb, "Dirty"Dirty Bombs: The Threat Revealed," DefenseDefense Horizons,Horizons, CenterCenter forfor Technology and NationalNational SecuritySecurity Policy,Policy, NationalNational DefenseDefense University,University, Washington,Washington, D.C., Jan. Jan. 2004, 2004, No. No. 38. 38. 145.145. Ibid.Ibid. 146.146. Ibid.Ibid. 147.147. "Are"Are 'Dirty'Dirty Bombs' a Major Terrorism Risk?" NuclearNuclear ControlControl Institute,Institute, Washington, D.C., Website,Website, > . 148.148. ZimmermanZimmerman and Loeb, "Dirty Bombs:Bombs: The Threat Revealed." 149.149. "Terrorists"Terrorists SeekingSeeking WeaponsWeapons of of MassMass Destruction Destruction -— Patrushev,"Patrushev," Interfax,Interfax, Aug.Aug. 19,2005.19, 2005. 150.150. "Osama"Osama binbin Laden Seeking toto AcquireAcquire RussianRussian Nuclear Weapon, Former CIA Analyst Says,"Says," Global Global SecuritySecurity Newswire,Newswire, Nuclear Nuclear Threat Threat Initiative,Initiative, Washington, D.C.,D.C, Nov.Nov. 22, 2004,2004, . >. 151. "Russian"Russian Government Government Approves Approves Draft Draft ProgramProgram toto Eliminate Chemical Weapons," Itar­!tar- Tass,Tass, JulyJuly 21, 2005,2005, ; >; "Russia"Russia to to Destroy Chemical Weapons Arsenal," Agence FranceFrance Presse,Presse, JulyJuly 21, 2005. 152. Joby Warrick, "Soviet"Soviet GermGerm Factories PosePose New New Threat: Threat: Once Once Mined Mined forfor Pathogens in Bioweapons Program, Labs Lack Security," Washington Post, Aug. 20, 2005. 153. Dafna Linzer, "Nuclear Capabilities MayMay EludeElude Terrorists, ExpertsExperts Say," Washington Post, Dec. 29, 2004. 154. Muhammad Salah, "Bin"Bin Ladin Front Reportedly Bought CBWCBW From E. Europe," a/-Hayah,al-Hayah, April 20,20, 1999;1999; "US Said Interrogating JihadistJihadist OverOver CBW,"CBW," al-Hayah,a/-Hayah, April 21,21, 1999.1999. 155. Linzer, "Nuclear Capabilities MayMay EludeElude Terrorists,Terrorists, ExpertsExperts Say." 156. "Insider Notes,"Notes," UnitedUnited PressPress International, JuneJune 3,3, 2002.2002.

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