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122834- u.s. Department of Justice 122839 National Insliwte of Justice

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·,'T.T , ',. .... -- - " , ='- , .. -·f January 1990 Volume 59 mrr= Number1 Law Enforcement Bulletin

Features 2 The Future of Law Enforcement: Dangerous and Different J ;;. ~ 'fs ~ ,(, By Alvin and Heidi Tottler T

The Changing Face of America ~ 3 S- 6 By Robert C. Trojanowicz and David L. Carter \;) :2 The Futuw of Policing 13 By William L. Tafoya 18 Public Law Enforcement/Private Security: ;t;;' ~ 3 7 Page 13 A New Partnership? l By Terence J. Mangan and Michael G. Shanahan A Look Ahead: Views of Tomorrow's FBI I;) :z ~3 fs' 23 By Richard C. Sonnichsen, Gail O. Burton and Thomas Lyons

Tomorrow's America: 28 Law Enforcement's Coming Challenge [""l ":) 8' 3 a By Rob McCord and Elaine Wicker 0'- (71. I

Departments

1 Director's Message 27 Focus on NCIC

Page 18 12 Focus on Identification 33 Focus on Forensic Science

United States Department of Justice Editor-Stephen D. Gladis Federal Bureau of Investigation Managing Editor-Kathryn E. Sulewski Washington, DC 20535 Art Director-John E. Ott Assistant Editor-Alice S. Cole William S. Sessions, Director Production Manager-Andrew DiRosa

The Attorney General has determined that the publication of this periodical is neces­ The FBI Law Enforcement Sulletin sary in the transaction of the public busi­ (lSSN-0014-5688) is published monthly by nec;s required by law of the Department of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, 10th Justice. Use of funds for printing this peri­ and Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Wi:jshington, The Cover: Voyager symbolizes one DC 20535. Second-Class postage paid at f}xample of the advantages and abso{ute odical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget. Washington, DC. Postmaster: Send address necessity of planning for the future. The· changes to Federal Bureau of Investigation, Editor wishes to thank ,the FBI's Office of FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, Washington, Planning, Evaluation and Audits and the Published by the Office of Public Affairs, DC 20535. Behavioral Science Instruction/Research Milt Ahlerich, Assistant Director Unit for he/ping to prepare this issue.

ISSN 0014-5688 USPS 383-310 The Future of Po/icing

By WILLIAM L. TAFOYA, Ph.D.

n August 1982, law enforce­ second, to facilitate social change.2 tive, ongoing social nonn and value ment executives gathered in the For law enforcement officers, this shifts, periods of refonn in policing, I FBI Academy auditorium to means not only protecting civil the research that addresses the hear Alvin Toffler speak. In his rights but also ensuring that all law­ phenomenon of resistance to or­ speech, Toffler suggested that be­ ful means of dissent and petitioning ganizational change, and the im­ cause change was taking place so of government concerning griev­ plications for law enforcement of rapidly, tremendous social pres­ ances are pennitted and protected.3 maintaining the status quo. sures were occurring and will con­ This will help secure the ideals of tinue to fennent and explode unless democracy and facilitate an orderly Historical Perspective opportunities were created to transition into what Toffler has Historically, the role of law relieve those pressures.! referred to as a "third wave" enforcement has been to maintain According to Toffler, law en­ society.4 the status quo. However, this does forcement, like society, has two In support of these ideals, this not mean that this is what "should possible courses of action. The first article addresses societal be" in the future. Reliance on cur­ is to cling to the status quo; the change from an historical perspec- rent practices will not prepare law

January 1990 113 enforcement for the future. There­ function a positive image. There­ value shlfts.8 In 1980, he followed fore, to be able to deal with change, fore, systematically shifting public up with The Third Wave, in which law enforcement must understand perception, and the self-image of the he expanded his views and drew an the process of change. themselves from "crime analogy between the waves of the Toffler's comments offer a fighter" to "social engineer," ocean and the three major changes challenge to law enforcement and seems appropriate.5 of society: The Agricultural suggest that unless the police are If law enforcement ad­ Revolution, the Industrial Revolu­ viewed by the public as amicable, ministrators do not plan properly tion, and the Technological Revolu­ they will be perceived as adver­ today, they may be forced to reas­ tion.9 saries. They must be viewed as in- sess the way their agencies. carry out According to Toffler, the first wave, the Agricultural Revolution, swept aside 45,000 years of cave dwelling about 8,000 B.C., and .. .Iaw enforcement must anticipate tomorrow in mankind shifted from a nomadic ex­ "an imaginative, analytical, and prescriptive istence based on hunting and gather­ manner. ing to domesticating animals, farm­ ing, and settling on the land. The second wave, the In­ dustrial Revolution, began about tegral to the neighborhood and as their responsibilities tomorrow." For indis,sensable members of the com­ example, California's 1978 1760, and mankind moved from the field to the foundry. The transition munity, not as an army of occupa­ Proposition Thirteen triggered a from plough to punch-press was tion. decade of so-called' 'cutback filled with consternation. In fact, One need only reflect back management" for law enforcement from 1811 to 1816, bands of two decades to be reminded of how and other agencies nationwide. workmen, called Luddites, des­ destructive civil unrest and social Such reappraisals are likely to come troyed machinery because they injustice can be. Law enforcement a.bout as a result of the kind of initia­ believed their jobs were at risk from has made important and laudatory tives Toffler has called "an­ the technology of the day. Machine strides to heal those wounds, but ticipatory democracy. ' '6 power, they feared, would replace there is more to be done. Law en­ Economizing measures, manpower. With the exception of a forcement administrators must not referenda, and trends, such as social few Third World countries, the In­ allow themselves to be content with nOlm and value shifts, accreditation, dustrial Revolution provided the past achievements. If law enforce­ education and training, and con­ economic base for second wave ment stops to congratulate itself for solidation,7 will bear close scrutiny the progress it has made thus far, it from now through the tum of the society. About 1955, the Technologi­ could drift backwards. century. If changes in these areas cal Revolution began, signifying the In addition, isolated and some­ continue at their present rate and third wave. Since that time, the times tragic events tend to direction, they are likely to lead to American work force has shifted dramatize and exaggerate the ex­ major, unanticipated changes in from blue collar to white collar. In citement of policing. For some both the role and organizational barely three decades, a parade of police officers, the service function structure of policing. Perhaps the high technology has marched into is something begrudgingly tolerated most important, most subtle, and the home. while waiting for the hot pursuit and most likely to be overlooked by The driving force for this shift in-progress calls. In fact, many police administrators is the shift in is information; the economic base police officers believe that the ser­ social norms and values. for third wave societies is the quest vice function should not be part of for knowledge. The ubiquitous their responsibilities. This belief is Changes in Society microcomputer, ushered in just over compounded by the lack of a con­ In his 1970 classic, Future a decade ago, has turned Western certed effort on the part of police Shock, Alvin Toffler discussed the society inside out. In the wake of administrators to give the service world's major social norm and

14/ FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin - this micro millennium, a new Substantial improvements in ganizational structure and autocratic "disease" has been discovered, law enforcement have taken place management styles that typify so cyberphobia-fear of computers. since the mid-1960s,11 but most ef­ much of law enforcement.2o In ef­ Computer phobes today express forts to change have fallen short of fect, the study concluded that "the remarkably similar views about their intended goals or have failed traditional managerial methods are computers as 19th-century Luddites all together. 12 In fact, law enforce­ not serving to motivate officers. "21 expressed about mechanical ment, being characteristically high­ One reason for this phenomenon devices. ly resistant to change and intolerant may be traced to a decline of un­ of organizational dissent, has been questioned obedience to authority.22 Changes in Law Enforcement about as flexible a:-; granite. 13 Until about 15 years ago, most A rough correspondence to police recruits were men who had Toffler's wave analogy can be Organizational Change served in the Armed Forces. These drawn with respect to the historical There is a vast body of litera­ men were accustomed to unques­ changes in law enforcement. Pas­ ture in organizational behavior,14 tioned response to command. sage of the Act management,15 and innovationl6 Today, however, few of the young of 1829 in marked the that addresses the issue of resistance men and women entering law en­ beginning of the "first wave" of to change and reasons why so many forcement have such experience. major law enforcement reform. organizations are so unyielding.!7 They often ask questions that are and Charles Rowan In general, an inverse relationship unsettling to traditionalist were two visionaries who brought exists in bureaucracies between or­ managers, who often believe that order and the military model to ganizational size and receptivity to people need to be, coerced, con­ policing. change. The bigger the organiza­ trolled, and threatened.23 A century later, in the 1930s, tion, the more rigidity and less af­ In a more recent study, a panel August Vollmer and O.W. Wilson, finity toward innovation there is. 18 of law enforcement management two American police pioneers, ad­ experts discussed the future of law vanced the goal of "pro­ enforcement.24 One of the issues ex­ fessionalizing" law enforcement. amined was leadership styles and Their efforts ushered in the "second When ·experience' the phenomenon of resistance to wave" of major law enforcement " change. One panelist, a law enforce­ reform. Standardization, specializa­ becomes dogma, it can ment executive, stated, "The tion, synchronization, concentra­ be not only misleading general perception is that things tion, maximization, and centraliza­ but also dangerous as have worked well as they are and tion dominated law enforcement well. that there is no need to change." during this era. Toffler's "Breaking Another panelist, who is a criminal the Code," in The Third Wave, for justice scholar, admitted that example, is almost a mirror image "police executives are not risk of the history of modem police ad­ As illogical as it may sound, in law takers and police departments are ministration.lo enforcement, it also appears to" be getting more, not less, defensive. "25 The civil unrest of the mid- the case that the smaller the agency, Today, there is ample 1960s through the mid-1970s was the more resistance there is to evidence to indicate that insofar as the impetus for the advocacy of the change. Even though positive, dealing with people is concerned, "third wave" ofmajorlaw enforce­ meaningful innovation is taking the good ole days may best serve as ment reform. Change agents, such place, many police administrators memories, not models for future as Patrick V. Murphy and Quinn are unwilling to "rock the boat." 19 personnel practices. Between now Tamm, began to question the value However, a 1983 study and the tum of the century, law en­ of the bureaucracy and the military revealed that a surprising number of forcement administrators will con­ model Of policing. police officers have begun to voice tinue to be reminded that the or­ strong objections to the rigid or- ganizational and managerial

January 1990 / 15 methods of the past--even though beyond. As a result, an effort has However, while the method­ enlightened for their time-may no been made to highlight s~ issues ological rigor of past research con­ longer work: In the future, the num­ viewed as central to our ab~.to tinues to be debated, the Kansas ber of disciplinary cases and the use police such a changing society. It is City Preventive Experiment33 of annual and sick leave will in­ vital that law enforcement ad­ represents a giant leap forward for crease steadily under traditionalist ministrators understand that: police professionalism and has managers. Unfortunately, many demonstrated that it is "o.k." to police administrators will be • Powerful dynamics are trans­ question dogma)4 However, prob­ oblivious to these signs or will figuring virtually every facet lem-oriented policing35 and the staunchly defend current personnel of American society Minneapolis domestic violence practices. However, the astute ad­ • The forces that are recasting study,36 for example, have been ministrator will recognize these in­ social institutions will also received with more reticence. dicators for what they represent and alter law enforcement or­ Law enforcement is capable of will adjust accordingly. ganizations substantive change, but this requires an objective examination of policy Implications • As society'S values change, and a willingness to adjust and What do such findings imply so will those of law enforce­ adapt)? Unexamined are a number for law enforcement? For ad­ ment personnel of visionary ideas that may have ministrators, what one does not been ahead of their time. One such want to hear may be precisely what • To deal effectively with untested proposal that evidences a one needs to know.26 For operation­ diversity, the process of great deal of merit is John Angell's al officers, some may feel trapped change must be understood democratic model of policing, and unable to leave; they will be­ which calls for greater organization­ come cynics.27 Others will leave to • The role and goals of polic­ al and decisionmaking decen­ join less bureaucratic and militaris­ ing must be clearly and con­ tralization)8 He argues, for ex­ tic organizations. The fact that many ciselyarticulated. ample, that rigid discipline and college graduates leave law en­ If the professionalization of authoritarianism fosters, rather than forcement early because of law enforcement is truly desirable, discourages, corruption)9 autocratic management was recog­ the fact that "the reform move­ nized over two decades ago.28 But, Conclusion ments may have succeeded to some the departure of personnel who Regardless of what lies ahead, extent in creating the appearance rebel against authoritarianism will law enforcement must anticipate tomorrow in an imaginative, analytical, and prescriptive manner. This means that law enforcement ... to be able to deal with change, law administrators must not be seduced enforcement must understand the process of by the tried and true tenets of the " past. When "experience" becomes change. dogma, it can be not only mislead­ ing but also dangerous as well. Ad­ ministrators should reflect on what likely not bean exodus of college­ without the substance offundamen­ has passed, not be driven by it. Law educated personnel in terms of num­ tal reform" must be faced)l "Only enforcement administrators of bers, but of talent. by "puncturing the myths and today-if they are to shape the The discontinuity of social slaughtering the sacred cows' '32 course of tomorrow-must look norms and values, which began will we advance the substance of ahead. more than two decades ago,29 is still policing. This has not always been For 45,000 years, mankind evident today)O And, the trend will easy for law enforcement. huddled in the darkness of caves, continue over the next 20 years and afraid to take that first step into the

16/ FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin H

light of day. Will history record Police Leam from 'Excellent Companies'?," 26Donald Sanzotta, The Manager's Journal ofCriminal JUstice, vol. 13, i'lo. 4, Guide to Interpersol/al Relatiol/s (New York: each law enforcement agency's 1985, pp. 381-385. Harry W. More, ed., . AMACOM, 1979), see especially' 'The IJI-In­ contribution as Luddite or lumi­ Effective Police Administration: A BehaVioral formed Walrus," pp. 113-115. nary? Bold leadership is essential Approach (San Jose, CA: Justice Systems 27 Arthur Niederhoffer, Behind the Development, 1975). Shield: The Police in Urbal/ Society, (Garden today-to prepare for the "fourth 16 John Sculley, Odyssey: Pepsi to City, NY: Doubleday, 1967). wave" of law enforcement reform. Apple .. .A Journey ofAdl'elllure, Ideas, and the 28 Norman Pomrenke, "Attracting and FlIIlIre (New York: Harper and Row, 1987); Retaining the College-Trained Officer in Law lED Rosabeth Moss Kanter, The Change Masters: In­ Enforcement," remarks made at the 72nd An­ novationsfor Productivity in the American Cnr- nual Conference of the International Associa­ Footnotes tion of Chiefs of Police, Miami, FL, October 2- I Alvin Toffier, Address before the 130th 7, 1965, proceedings published in The Police Session of the FBI National Academy, FBI Yearbook (WaShington, DC: IACP, 1966), pp. Academy. Quantico, VA, August, 5, 1982. 99-109. 2 Ibid. 29 Peter F. Drucker, The Age of Discoll­ 3 Ibid. Administrators should tillldt)' (New York: Harper & Row, 1968). 4 Alvin Toffier, The Third Wave (New " 30 Daniel Yankelovich and Sidney Har­ York: William Morrow, 1980). reflect on what has man, Starting With the People (Boston, MA: 5 James Q. Wilson and George L. Kell­ passed, not be driven Houghton Mifflin, 1988); Ian Miles, "The New ing "Broken Windows," Atlantic MOlllhly, Post-Industrial State," FUlures, December Ma~ch 1982, pp 29-38; James Q. Wilson and by it. 1985, pp. 588-617; Daniel Yankelovich, New George L. Kelling, "Making Neighborhoods Rules: Searching for SelfFu/fillmelll in a Safe," At/alllic Monthly, February 1989, pp. 46- World Tumed Upside Dowl/ (New York: Ran­ 52. dom House, 1981). 6 Alvin Toffier, Future Shock (New 31 Gary W. Sykes, "The Functional Na­ York: Random House, J970); supra note 4. " ture of Police Reform: The 'Myth' ofControl­ poration (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1983); 7 William L. Tafoya, "A Delphi Leonard Territo, "Planning and Implementing ling the Police," Justice Quarterly, March Forecast of the Future of Law Enforcement," Organizational Change," Journal of Police 1985, pp. 51-65. 32 Louis A. Mayo, phrase coined as the unpublished doctoral dissertation (Criminal Science and Administration, December 1980, Justice and Criminology), University of pp. 390-398. theme for a 2-year series of monthly meetings Maryland, December 1986. 17 Terrence E. Deal and Allan A. Ken­ co-sponsored by the Section of Criminal Justice Administration of the American Society for 8 Supra note 6 nedy, Corporate Cultures: The Rites and 9 Supra note 4. Rituals of Corporate Life (Reading, MA: Ad­ Public Administration (ASPA) and the Police 10 Supra note 4. dison-Wesley, 1982); Marilyn Ferguson, The Foundation, Washington, DC. II Wayne A. Kerstetter, "The Police in Aquarian Conspiracy: Personal and Social 33 George L. KelJing, et ai, "The Kansas City Preventive Patrol Experiment," technical 1984," Journal ofCriminaiJustice, Spring Transformation in the 1980s (Los Angeles, CA: report (Washington, DC: The Police Founda­ 1979, pp. 1-9. J.P. Tarcher, 1980); Gerald E. Caiden, Police tion, October 1974). 12 Charles R. Swanson, Leonard Territo, Revitalization (Lexington, MA: Lexington 34 Ibid. and Robert W. Taylor, Police Administration: Books, 1977); Warren G. Bennis, "Beyond 35 Herman Goldstein, "Improving Polic­ Structures, Processes, and Behaviot·, 2nd ed. Bureaucracy: Will Organization Men Fit the ing: A Problem-Oriented Approach," Crime (New York: Macmillan, 1988), see especially New Organizations?," Tomorrow's Organiza­ "Success and Failure Patterns in Planned tions: Challenges and Strategies, edited by Jon and Delinquency, April 1979, pp. 236-258. 36 Lawrence W. Sherman & Richard A. Change," pp. 545-547. S. Jun and William B. Storm (Glenview, IL: I3 Dorothy Guyot, "Bending Granite: Scot, Foresman & Co., 1973), pp. 70-76. Berk, "The Minneapolis Domestic Violence ~­ Attempts to Change the Rank Structure of 18 Anthony Downs, Inside Bureaucracy periment," report (Washington, DC: The Police Foundation, 1984). American Police Departments," Journal of (Boston, MA: Little, Brown & Co., 1967). Police Science and Administration, September 19 J. Laverne Coppock, "Police Manage­ 37 Alvin Toffier, The Adaptive CO'1Jora­ tion (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1985). 1979, pp. 253-284. ment in Transition," Effective Police Ad­ 38 John E. Angell, "Organizing Police 14 Roy R. Roberg and Jack Kuykendall, ministration: A Behavioral Approach, 2nd ed., for the Future: An Update on the Democratic Police Organization and Managemelll: Be­ edited by Harry W. More, Jr., (St. Paul, MN: Model," Crimil/alJustice Review, Fall 1976, havior, Theory, and Processes (Pacific Grove, West Publishing, 1979), pp. 45-56. CA: Brooks/Cole, 1990), s~ especially' 'Resis­ 20 William F. Walsh, "The Analysis of pp.35-51; "Toward an Altemative to the CIas.­ sic Organizational Arrangements: A DemocratIc tance to Change," pp. 383-388; Stephen J. Car­ the Variation in Patrol Officer Felony Arrest Model," Crimil/ology, August-November 1971, roll and Henry L. Tosi, Organizational Be­ Rates," unpublished doctoral dissertation pp. 185-206. havior (Chicago, IL: SI. Clair, 1977); Chris Ar­ (Sociology), Fordham University, 1984, and 39 Carl B. Klockars, Thil/king About gyris, Interpersonal Competence and O!'ganiza­ "Patrol Officer Arrest Rates: A Study of the So­ Police (New York: McGraw-HilI, 1983). tional Effectiveness (Homewood, IL: Richard D. cial Organization of Police Work," Justice ,, Irwin, 1962). Quarterly, September 1986, pp. 271-290. 15 Rosabeth Moss Kanter, When Giants 21 "Police Officers Won't Tolerate Leal'll to Dance: Mastering the Challenge of Autocratic Management Style," ACJS Today, William L. Tafoya is an FBI Spe­ Strategy, Management, and Careers in the January 1984, p.6 .. 1990s (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1989); 22 Ibid. cial Agent assigned to the Behavioral Thomas J. Peters and Robert H. Waterman, Jr., 23 Douglas McGregor, The Human Side Science Instruction/Research Unit at In Search of Excellence: Lessonsjrom ofEllferprlse (New York: McGraw-HilI, 1960). the FBI Academy at Quantico, VA. America's Best-Run Companies (New York: 24 Supra note 7. Warner, 1982). Dilip K. Das, "What Can the 25 Supra note 7.

January 1990 /17