GENERAL AGREEMENT ON CCNFIDENTIAL IMCG/VA9 TARIFFS AND TRADE 6 December 1977

Ori ginal: French

INTERNATIONAL MEAT CONSULTATIVE GROUP

Ninth Meeting: 28 November 1977

Statement made by the Representative of Poland

\Enformation by Poland

The Polish delegation presents a summary of the situation on the meat market, the statistical data available, and the estimates for 1978 in regard to supply and demand for meat products.

In order to give a clearer idea of the Polish market, we shall not limit ourselves to the bovine meat sector alone, but shall extend our information to cover the more or less complementary meats, i.e., pork and poultry meat, horses and sheep for slaughter. Here are the relevant figures for 1976 and the first six months of 1977.

Livestock population on the basis of June/July census

('000 head)

1978 1976(VI) 1977(VII) 1977 1976 estimates

• of

Cattle 12,879 12,980 +0.8 13-13,100 of which cows 5,989 6,170

Swine 18.8U7 19,87U +5.U 20,900 of which sows 1,760 2,256

Sheep 3,^30 3,890 +13. k U-U,200

Horses 2,151 stable IMCG/W/U9 Page 2

In July 1977, the socialized sector of agriculture showed an above-average increase in the livestock population, in particular by 7 per cent for cattle and 5-9 per cent for swine.

Purchases of livestock and slaughterings by farmers for their own consumption were as follows: (*000 tons live weight)

1977 1978 1976 first half forecasts

Meat - total carcass weight (of cattle, swine, sheep, horses and poultry) 2,285 1,157 2,190

of which: (live weight) Cattle 1,1+29 66k 1,372 Calves ?o 27 Swine 1,978 83U 1,1+50 Sheep 1+1+ .. Horses 87 .. Poultry 1+01 •• ••

Meat production from indigenous animals, including production by farmers for their own consumption, reached 2.7 million tons in 1976. This figure includes negligible quantities of livestock exports, and also horses and sheep for slaughter intended for export.

The comparison between aggregate production and industrial production in 1976 is as follows: (•000 tons, including fat and offal, carcass weight

Aggregate Industrial production production

Beef 751 682 Veal 55 13 Pork 1,51*3 1,288 Mutton 21 1+ Horse meat 50 18 Poultry meat 277 201 Offal 187 170 IMCG/WA9 Page 3

According to estimates for the current year, industrial production will be slightly lower than in 1976 ('000 tons, carcass weight):

Beef - 637, veal - 11, pork - 1,23^, mutton - 5» horse meat - 20, poultry meat - 2U0, offal - 165.

Per capita consumption of meat in 1976 amounted to 70 kgs. (red meat, meat preparations and poultry - carcass weight) of which: meat and offal - ' . 1+0.8 kgs., processed products - 17.9 kgs., (product weight). The decline in supply of pork caused a shift in the consumption ratio as compared with 1975» in which year the share of pork was 1+0.9 kgs. (72.5 per cent) and that of bovine meat 15-5 kgs. (27.5 per cent). The figures for 1976 were respectively 3'-+. 5 kgs. (68.5 per cent) and 20.k kgs. (31.5 per cent). These latter proportions will be maintained for the current year, but pork consumption is expected to rise again in 1978.

To cover market requirements, in the light of growing demand, production of poultry - in particular broilers - is expected to increase substantially. Per capita consumption is expected to rise from the present level of 8 kgs. to 15 kgs. in 1980.

In the first ten months of 19779 imports of meat and lard reached 130,000 tons of which 75,000 tons of beef and veal, as against 1+3,000 tons of beef, veal and perk in 1976. For 1978, any recourse to imports would be for intervention purposes and only in limited quantities.

Estimates for 1977-1978

Some figures have already been mentioned and we have not much to add to the assessment of the Polish market situation that we presented in July. Retail prices are still frozen, though there have been a few upward adjustments in respect of semi-processed meat products and high quality pork products or vacuum-packed cuts.

The main task for 1978 in the stock-breeding sector will be to increase the numbers of swine, sheep and - to the extent possible - cattle; this trend is reflected in the 1977 census figures. We have already mentioned intensification of poultry production. The increase in swine and sheep will result in larger supplies of pork for the domestic market and live sheep for export.

Replenishment of the cattle herd will result in some decline in meat deliveries in the first half of 1978. We may note a large number of sows for breeding, and a high production level for piglets and calves. In order to maintain and develop this positive trend, guaranteed prices to farmers for piglets and young pigs have been introduced. In addition, calf slaughterings are being limited by the introduction of some selection of animals for stock- breeding. IMCG/WA9 Page k

Increased expenditure is planned for the development of agriculture and the agricultural foodstuff sector. To this end, the State will grant 20,000 million zlotys more than in 1977• The sum of 125,000 million zlotys has been earmarked to subsidize retail prices of meat products} processed cereals, milk and sugar. Very substantial investments and reconstruction have been carried out in the tractor and chemical fertilizer industries. Financial benefits to rural areas have been increased^ and in particular private farmers now enjoy guaranteed retirement pensions.

It is our intention to maintain next year at their present level exports of meat and meat products, including beef cuts and preserves, and to increase somewhat the number of young cattle for fattening. We do not envisage any essential changes as regards outlet markets.

Assessment of conditions on the world market for beef and veal

In our view3 there is little to add to what was said at the eighth meeting of this Group in July 1977- Events in the past five months have convinced us that 1978 will still not be favourable to meat exporters, in the first place because of limited access to outlet markets. In the main production and consumption areas, supply of all meats will not be less than in 1976. Relatively low prices of feed grains will bring increased production of pork and poultry meat, offsetting the decline in beef and veal supplies. This will mainly affect the major importing markets - the United States and the Community and to some extent Japan.

We confirm our opinion regarding a possible decline in consumption due to the slowdown of economic growth expected in 1978 and the high level of unemploy­ ment. Beef and veal production in the Community, together with substantial intervention stocks, will more or less cover the domestic needs of the member countries, and this will imply continuing difficulties of market access for third countries.