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Company Portrait Tube Investments BUY BUY CMP Rs606 Leveraging manufacturing expertise Target 12m Rs680 (12%) Market cap (US$ m) 1,544 We initiate coverage on Tube Investments of India (TI) with a BUY and TP of Rs680. TI is leveraging its manufacturing and Enterprise value (US$ m) 1,580 R&D expertise to maintain leadership as tier-2 auto Bloomberg TIINDIA IN component supplier as well as to grow the non-auto, exports Sector Metals and railways businesses. The ingrained focus on growth, profitability, RoCE and cash generation is visible in the 1 October 2020 company’s financials with ROE improving to 19% in FY20. Recent announcement for acquisition of 58.6% stake in CG 52Wk High/Low (Rs) 682/254 Power will drive further diversification away from autos, as Shares o/s (m) 188 capital support and mfg. expertise drive a turnaround. Daily volume (US$ m) 1 Dividend yield FY21ii (%) 0.7 Strong play on recovery in the domestic auto market: TI is a Free float (%) 52.1 leading tier-2 vendor for domestic auto OEMs. 55% of its revenue/Ebit share is backed by strong quality & service levels, deep Shareholding pattern (%) integration in manufacturing with OEMs, well-spread manufacturing Promoter 47.9 facilities and importantly resilient customer relationships. As auto Pledged (as % of promoter share) 0.0 volumes for 2Ws, PVs and tractors recover, TI is well placed to FII 18.2 benefit as the supplier to majority of the auto makers in India. DII 20.6 Non-auto segments also seeing healthy traction: TI’s intent to Price performance (%) lower exposure to auto cyclicality is playing out, as rise in exports’ 1M 3M 1Y share (15% in FY20) gains pace, with focus on product development Tube (6.4) 36.4 57.8 for global auto & industrial customers. The outlook is strong for rail Investments section supplies for coach building, despite near-term hiccups. The Absolute (US$) (5.9) 39.6 52.7 large-diameter tubes segment, driven by import substitution, should Rel.to BSE (6.7) 23.8 53.6 see healthy growth as demand revives in FY22-23. Midcap Opening a new chapter with CG Power acquisition: TI will soon CAGR (%) 3 yrs 5 yrs complete the Rs8bn investment for 58.58% stake in CG Power. While EPS 24.2 (12.5) businesses are distinct, TI plans to leverage its manufacturing and Stock movement R&D capabilities and provide the much-needed capital for turning around operations. If this ensues as planned, it will significantly lower Vol('000, LHS) Price (Rs., RHS) share of auto, and possibly open-up B2C segments around motors. 3,000 800 600 Fairly valued at CMP; upsides on stronger delivery: Adjusted for 2,000 400 value of CG Power, the stock trades at 26x FY22 PER which we believe 1,000 200 is fair. Faster than expected recovery in core businesses and quick turnaround of CG Power will drive upsides and rerating. 0 0 Financial summary (Rs m) Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-20 Jan-19 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Nov-18 Nov-19 Mar-19 Mar-20 May-20 May-19 Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY19A FY20A FY21ii FY22ii FY23ii Revenues (Rs m) 57,748 47,504 34,848 45,846 53,193 Ebitda margins (%) 9.4 12.2 11.7 13.3 13.9 Pre-exceptional PAT (Rs m) 2,478 3,352 1,896 3,350 4,271 Reported PAT (Rs m) 2,508 3,133 1,746 3,350 4,271 Pre-exceptional EPS (Rs) 13.2 17.8 10.1 17.8 22.7 Growth (%) 55.9 35.1 (43.5) 76.7 27.5 Anupam Gupta PER (x) 45.9 34.0 60.1 34.0 26.7 [email protected] 91 22 4646 4641 ROE (%) 18.0 20.9 10.7 17.2 19.0 Net debt/equity (x) 0.3 0.1 0.1 (0.1) (0.2) Urvil Bhatt, CFA EV/Ebitda (x) 21.9 20.1 28.5 18.6 14.9 [email protected] Price/book (x) 7.7 6.6 6.2 5.5 4.7 91 22 4646 4648 OCF/Ebitda (x) 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 www.iiflcap.com Source: Company, IIFL Research. Price as at close of business on 30 September 2020. 1 www.iiflcap.com Tube Investments of India – BUY Company Snapshot As part of the large and diversified Murugappa Group, Tube Investment Holdings (TI) is a manufacturing company with a strong established franchise across the auto and industrial sectors in India and overseas. The company has been in business since 1959, continuously building on its growing engineering prowess. It came into its current form in FY17, post restructuring, wherein the financial service business was segregated into TI Financial Holdings. Engineering and Metal The company operates across three business segments (Engineering, formed products are key Metal Formed Products and Cycles) in the standalone entity and segments for TI accounting holds 70% in Shanti Gears, which sells gears to industrial customers. for 78% of revenues in FY20 It is in the process of acquiring 58.58% stake (post warrant conversion) in CG Power & Industrial Systems, which is a strong player in motors, railway systems and transformers/switchgears. Figure 1: Summary of Consolidated business segments FY20 (Rs m) Engineering Metal formed Cycles Gears Consolidated Net Sales 22,582 16,348 7,812 2,416 47,504 Share of total 44% 34% 16% 5% PBIT 2,644 1,160 224 327 3,932 PBIT margin 11.7% 7.1% 2.9% 13.5% 8.2% Share of total 58% 25% 5% 6% Capital Employed 6,390 6,215 1,755 2,245 18,753 RoCE 41.4% 18.7% 12.7% 14.6% 20.4% Source: Company, IIFL Research In terms of end markets served, auto is the largest sector for TI, in terms of revenues, followed by industrial, railways and cycles. Exports form 15% of the overall revenues and are serving the overseas auto and industrial customers. Figure 2: Auto contributed 56% of revenue in FY20; FY19 was 59% FY20 revenue breakup Non Auto/Industrial 24% Auto 56% Railways 4% Cycles 16% Source: Company, IIFL Research The company has multiple manufacturing facilities spread across the country, in order to be closer to customer manufacturing facilities, thus enabling faster turn-around times and Just-in-Time production. [email protected] 2 Tube Investments of India - BUY Figure 3: Manufacturing presence Punjab (3) – Mohali & Rajpura Uttarakhand (2) Haryana (1) - Bawal Gujarat (1) – Sanand Maharashtra Telengana (1) - Medak (2) – Shirwal & Pune TPI TICI MFPD Tamil Nadu (8) Source: Company, IIFL Research. TPI – Tube products of India (Engineering segment), TICI – TI Cycles of India, MFPD – Metal formed product division Figure 4: Tube Investments of India – Major milestones Year Major milestones 1949 TI Cycles of India established in collaboration with Tube Investments, UK 1959 Tube Products of India merged with TI Cycles of India to form Tube Investments of India 1960 TI Diamond Chains (TIDC) formed in collaboration with Diamond Chains USA 1965 TI Metal Forming was established as a division of Tube Investments 1969 TI Diamond Chains diversifies into industrial chains 1975 TIDC diversifies into heavy duty chains 1985 Diversification into engineering class chains and mfg. of bike chains 1990 Acquisition of Press Metal Corporation 1995 Setup of the fine blanking division for the auto sector 1996 Indigenously designed tube plant setup near Pune 1998 Sets-up new facility to make car door frames near Gurgaon 2001 Cycle manufacturing plant set up at Nashik, entry into financial services by purchasing 41.8% stake in Cholamandalam Investments and Finance 2004 TI Diamond Chains merged with TI India; metal forming division sets up mfg. facility in Gujarat for making door frames 2006 Hydro forming facility commissioned near Chennai to supply auto components 2010 Commissioned new plant at Sanand, Gujarat and Laksar, Uttarakhand 2017 Demerger of Tube Investment of India with the financial business into TI Financial Holdings 2019 New facility established at Rajpura, Punjab for high strength tubes and telescopic front fork products 2020 Made binding bid for acquisition of 58.58% stake in CG Power & Industrial Systems at Rs8bn Source: Company, IIFL Research [email protected] 3 Tube Investments of India – BUY Management structure Post the restructuring in FY17 and following the appointment of Vellayan Subbiah as the Managing Director a couple of years ago, the company has adopted a differentiated management structure. Each individual business has an independent operating CEO, apart from the MD and Group CFO. And each business is separately tracked on the key metrics of revenue growth, PBT margin, RoCE and FCF/PAT. The company has created 18 business units within the company, to further decentralise the management of operations. Figure 5: TII – Management profile Name Designation Brief Profile MM Murugappan Chairman MM Murugappan is a fourth-generation member of the Murugappa family and also the Executive Chairman of the Murugappa Group Corporate Advisory Board, since Feb 2018. Vellayan Subbiah Managing Director Part of the promoter family, he has over 23 years of experience in varied fields, viz. technology, projects and financial services. He was MD of Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company, during 2010-17. Kalyan Kumar Paul President, TI Cycles He has over three decades of experience in managing domestic and international operations, and sales & marketing across diverse industries. He joined Tube Products of India in 2009 and has held various executive roles, including that of Sr. VP Strategy & New projects, Sr. VP Sales & Marketing and President Tube Products of India. Mukesh Ahuja EVP & Head Tube Products He has over two decades of experience in managing operations, strategy, business development and sales & marketing.
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