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Television Advertising in 2012

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Television Advertising in 2012 Television Advertising in 2012 WMP Directors: Erika Franklin Fowler, Michael M. Franz & Travis N. Ridout Brought to you by: Thanks also to: Kantar Media/CMAG Frequency Data Online Coding Tool Data We Collect • Sponsor (candidate, party, interest group) • Tone (positive, negative, contrast) • Issue themes, personal traits/adjectives & policy vs. personality balance of spot • Major politician mentions & tone • Mentions of party affiliation, magic words, etc. • Emotional appeals, music, voiceovers TRENDS IN VOLUME, COST, AND SPONSORSHIP Volume and Cost of Ads in 2012 Race Ad Airings Est. Cost House 685,787 $443,105,900 Senate 952,135 $558,121,120 President 1,431,939 $950,436,980 All federal 3,042,861 $1,923,754,550 Source: Wesleyan Media Project; Kantar Media/CMAG data Note: Local broadcast and national cable ads Ads in Presidential Race (6/1 to Election Day) 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2004 2008 2012 Source: Wisconsin Advertising Project and Wesleyan Media Project; Kantar Media/CMAG data Note: Local broadcast and national cable ads Interest Group Activity Skyrockets in Presidential Primaries 59.1% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 14.5% 10.0% 4.1% 2.8% 0.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 Source: Wisconsin Advertising Project and Wesleyan Media Project; Kantar Media/CMAG data Note: Local broadcast and national cable ads Top Advertisers in General Election Barack Obama 511,513 Mitt Romney 207,984 American Crossroads 81,553 Restore Our Future, Inc. 62,557 Crossroads GPS 61,610 Priorities USA Action 58,990 Americans for Prosperity 40,465 RNC 35,825 RNC & Romney 33,456 Americans for Job Security 10,410 American Future Fund 7,438 DNC & Obama 7,210 Source: Wesleyan Media Project; Kantar Media/CMAG data Money Isn’t Everything 700,000 600,000 +$1M 500,000 400,000 Pro-Obama 300,000 Pro-Romney 200,000 100,000 - Pres. Ads Aired Money Spent (in thousands) Source: Wesleyan Media Project; Kantar Media/CMAG data Note: Local broadcast and national cable ads Money Isn’t Everything 700,000 -41,596 600,000 +$1M 500,000 400,000 Pro-Obama 300,000 Pro-Romney 200,000 100,000 - Pres. Ads Aired Money Spent (in thousands) Source: Wesleyan Media Project; Kantar Media/CMAG data Note: Local broadcast and national cable ads Money Isn’t Everything • Differences between: – Candidates vs. Interest Groups – Obama vs. Romney Romney More Reliant on Groups 60.0% 50.3% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 11.7% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Obama Romney Source: Wesleyan Media Project; Kantar Media/CMAG data Note: Local broadcast and national cable ads Obama Edge in Key Markets Difference in Ad Placements Money Isn’t Everything • Differences between: – Candidates vs. Interest Groups in ad prices – Obama vs. Romney in placements and strategy • Strategy going forward? Interest Groups vs. Party Advertising Interest Groups vs. Party Advertising Interest Group Transparency 428,341 450,000 400,000 350,000 $321.5 M 300,000 250,000 Dark money 200,000 Partial disclosure 150,000 Full disclosure 100,000 50,000 0 Ads aired Money Spent (in thousands) Source: Wesleyan Media Project & Center for Responsive Politics Note: All federal local broadcast and national cable ads (2011-2012) Television Advertising in 2012 WMP Directors: Erika Franklin Fowler, Michael M. Franz & Travis N. Ridout Negativity Trend Over Time Negativity Trend Over Time Parties, Groups More Negative 100% 80% 60% Promote Contrast 40% Attack 20% 0% Candidate Party Ind. Group Candidates & IGs Policy Focused 1 0.8 0.6 Policy 0.4 Both Personal 0.2 0 Candidate Interest Groups Percentage Who Have Not Heard Of… 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Top U.S. Senate Races by Volume Source: Wesleyan Media Project; Kantar Media/CMAG data Note: Local broadcast and national cable ads Candidate Ads in Senate Races (9/1 to Election Day) Percent increase 2500 10% 38% Paired Market Paired 2000 20% 50% 2571 2514 2557 2277 2128 1500 1868 1778 1700 1000 Mean Number of Ads per Adsof Number Mean Source: Wisconsin Advertising Project and Wesleyan Media Project Note: Local broadcast and national cable ads Top U.S. House Races by Volume Source: Wesleyan Media Project; Kantar Media/CMAG data Note: Local broadcast and national cable ads Ad Scores by Sponsor Pro-Republican Pro-Obama 600 550 Americans for 500 Prosperity 464.70 450 400 411.95 Obama Romney 350 392.66 300 Ad Scores by Affiliation Obama Priorities USA Romney American Crossroads 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Estimated Effect of Ads at County Level .
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