Peace Confidence Index 13 – Topline Results

An Opinion Poll On Peace

Peace Confidence Index (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator

May 2003

© 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives hile many studies have been conducted on various aspects of W this conflict, none have attempted to capture the changes in public perception over a period of time. The lack of such a study was identified as a significant void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) under the Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka, will be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of local and international political developments on public attitudes towards the peace process.

Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

CONTENTS

• INTRODUCTION 01 • KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 • FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 07 • PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 11 TOP-LINE RESULTS

PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE 11

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT 15

CONFIDENCE 17

THE PEACE PROCESS 21

INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION 22

NORWEGIAN FACILITATION 23

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT 25

• RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 26

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION 26

LTTE 33

FEDERAL SOLUTION 36

THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY 37

VIOLENCE IN MUTTUR 40

CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT 46

COHABITATION 47

• ANNEX

Peace Confidence Index Page 1 Top-line Results

INTRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardised questions which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another.

Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate.

SCOPE & METHODOLOGY

The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 1,321 respondent sample. The 15 administrative districts of the seven provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Vavuniya were surveyed. The Ratnapura and Hambantota districts were not surveyed in this wave due to the prevailing flood situation. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed.

Twelve waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and January, March, May, July, September, November 2002 and January and March 2003. The latest wave was conducted in May 2003. This publication presents only the top-line results of the May 2003 survey.

The results of these thirteen waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS APRIL 2003-MAY 2003

• Representatives from the LTTE and the Muslim community met in Batticaloa recently to discuss ways to harmonise the interests of the Tamil and Muslim communities. LTTE sources say that the main issue under discussion was the paddy lands owned by Muslims in the East. (3 April 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • The Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) severely criticizes the role of the Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission (SLMM) for their 'open verdicts' on sea attacks by the LTTE. (3 April 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • The need for independent Muslim representation at the forthcoming peace talks has been stressed by Muslim leaders and endorsed by the President. The issue was raised when representatives of Muslim organisations from the North East called on President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. (4 April 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The LTTE accuses the United States of trying to undermine their peace bid with the government by excluding them from a key aid meeting in Washington. "Regrettably the US has undermined the joint effort (with the government) by isolating the LTTE and solely promoting the Sri Lankan government," the LTTE says an LTTE statement. (4 April 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The government indicates it would be seeking changes to the Ceasefire Agreement with the LTTE. Cabinet spokesman Prof. G.L. Peiris addressing a news conference after the Cabinet meeting says the government thought it would be good to make changes in some areas of the agreement. He maintains that while provisions covering the land areas were satisfactory there was uncertainty about the situation in the sea and adds that there was a necessity for a detailed document covering the sea area. He said there was a greater need for maintenance of rules of engagement and a further strengthening of the monitoring missions. (4 April 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The World Bank's pledge of a US dollar 800 million loan for development. (4 April 2003)-(The Island) • Proposals to reconstruct the Chavakachcheri town in Thenmaradchchi division in Jaffna district were tabled today at a conference attended by the Regional Director General of the Planning and Operation unit of the Urban Development Authority (UDA) Mr. K. V. Dharmasiri. (4 April 2003)- (www.tamilnet.com) • PA MP Mangala Samaraweera, addressing a media briefing yesterday, said that no sooner than his party returns to power would Prof. G.L. Peiris be arrested for treason. (4 April 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) The United States Commander of the Pacific Air Force, General William J. Begert, is in Sri Lanka on a four-day visit. The General, who reportedly flew to Ratmalana in his own aircraft "Gulf Stream", is on a goodwill visit to several countries in the region. (4 April 2003)-(www.lankapage.com and http://www.army.lk/press_release/2003/04/03_1019.htm) • Navy Commander Vice Admiral Daya Sandagiri is convinced that a Tiger-owned tanker intercepted by the navy off Mullaitivu last month was sent down to the bottom of the sea by flooding the ship. "They must have opened the vessel's sea valves to take in sea water to flood the tanker," he says. (5 April 2003)-(The Island) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) refutes allegations of bias and says that sharply contradicting information from the government and LTTE had made it impossible to verify either the recent attack on a Chinese fishing trawler or the abortive assault on the state-operated Lanka Muditha. "The easiest party to blame is the SLMM," says Pekka Vihervas, SLMM legal adviser. (5 April 2003)-(The Island) • The Upcountry People's Front (UPF), a constituent party of the ruling United National Front (UNF) today morning picketed in front of the Fort railway station, in the heart of Colombo, supporting the present peace process and condemning the activities of anti-peace elements. (5 April 2003)- (www.tamilnet.com) • The LTTE is joining the Sri Lanka Human Rights Commission to protect human resources in the Northern and Eastern Provinces. The LTTE came to an agreement with the government on this matter during the fifth and sixth rounds of peace talks held recently in Japan. (5 April 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • The A9 highway to Jaffna will be open for public traffic on Sundays, starting today. (6 April 2003)- (www.tamilnet.com) • The Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) has written to the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission accusing the LTTE of being responsible for the murder of one of its members at Soorawatha. (7 April 2003)- (www.colombopage.com) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) and the LTTE on April 3 agreed to hold a meeting with the local heads of Sri Lankan Government armed forces on April 21 at the no-man zone in the Muttur area, south of Trincomalee town, to sort out the problem that has arisen over the question of LTTE members crossing through the army controlled areas to LTTE controlled areas, sources say. (8 April 2003)- (www.tamilnet.com) Copyright © Social Indicator May 2003

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• The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) on April 10 reiterated its stand to the Prime Minister that the Sri Lanka Army should not be allowed to establish or relocate its camps and main bases in densely populated places in the Northeast province, TNA parliamentary group leader, Mr. R. Sampanthan, said in a press release. (10 April 2003)-(http://news.tamilnet.com/art.html?artid=8719&catid=13) • Minister of Transportation of Government of Sri Lanka, Minister Upali Piyasoma ceremonially inaugurated the Polannaruwa to Batticaloa train service Saturday morning easing transportation to and from Batticaloa town, sources in Batticaloa said. Recent completion to repairs of the final stretch of the track from Valaichenai to Batticaloa paved the way for the opening of the Polannaruwa to Batticaloa service. (12 April 2003)-(http://news.tamilnet.com/art.html?artid=8762&catid=13) • Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage opened an international conference on Sri Lanka on April 14 at the State Department by calling for international support for the "momentum of peace" in Sri Lanka. (15 April 2003)-(http://www.peaceinsrilanka.org/) • Police imposed a night curfew in the crisis ridden Muttur area last night as the tension escalated with three people being killed and at lease eight injured in a clash at Maliyathivu in Toppur, security sources said. They said that at about 5. 30 pm a large number of armed men alleged to be LTTE cadres had opened fire and clashed at another group in the Maliyathivu area. (17 April 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Two Sinhalese youths alleged to have been abducted by some unidentified persons few weeks ago have returned home, according to police sources. (19 April 2003)-(news.tamilnet.com) • As the situation in Muttur was brought under control, the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) summoned the LTTE for a meeting with local community leaders to settle the problem and is also arranging a larger meeting of the LTTE hierarchy and government security officials to iron out North - East security issues. (19 April 2003)-(Sunday Observer) • The Head of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), retired Norwegian Major General Tryggve Teleffsen, has proposed that the Government "recognise the LTTE Sea Tigers as a de facto naval unit" and demarcate areas at sea for "live firing exercises" by them. "For mutual trust and understanding and as a confidence-building measure," he has also proposed that the Sri Lanka Navy and the LTTE Sea Tigers "should permit observers from the other party onboard their vessels whilst conducting exercises and training." (20 April 2003)-(Sunday Times and http://www.peaceinsrilanka.org/) • The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Executive Board on Friday approved a US $ 567 million credit equivalent to one hundred per cent of quota for Sri Lanka, to support the government's economic program for 2003-2006. Effective immediately, the Sri Lankan government will receive US$ 81 million. (20 April 2003)-(Sunday Observer) • The entire Trincomalee district has been brought under twelve-hour police curfew with effect from 7 p.m., April 6. The curfew was imposed following violent incidents at Jamaliya area, suburb of Trincomalee and now been brought under night curfew as a precautionary measure to prevent clashes between groups, according to Police sources. (20 April 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga said today her government's peace talks with the LTTE to end three decades of bloodshed had brought some positive developments and should continue. "There has been some positive developments in the ongoing peace process like the LTTE staying at the table for the longest time...," Ms. Kumaratunga told reporters before ending a two-day official visit to Bangladesh. (21 April 2003)-(AFP / Daily Mirror) • Representatives of the LTTE and Majlis Al Shura of Muttur division have come to a common agreement in the aim of diffusing tension in the area. The Trincomalee District office of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission says in a release that the parties met today to discuss these issues. (21 April 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • LTTE chief negotiator Anton Balasingham says at a rally in Geneva recently that the LTTE has a de-facto administration in the areas controlled by them and his organisation is in control of 3/4th of their homeland and have their own judiciary, police, administration and law enforcement mechanisms. (21 April 2003)-(The Island) • LTTE chief negotiator Anton Balasingham appeals to Swiss govt. to not to send refugees back to Sri Lanka until a final solution was reached to the problem. (21 April 2003)-(The Island) • The LTTE leadership informs the government that it has decided to suspend its participation in the peace negotiations "for the time being". (21 April 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com/The Island) • The LTTE agrees to ensure the security of the Muslim people in areas under its control. This was among the decisions reached at a meeting between the LTTE, Muslim representatives and the SLMM to defuse tension in Muttur area. (21 April 2003)-(Daily News) • The SLMM asserts that the suspension of peace talks will have no impact of the Ceasefire Agreement between the GOSL and the LTTE. The LTTE peace secretariat chief Pulithevan had informed the SLMM that the LTTE will be continuing with the CFA irrespective of the suspension of the peace talks. "The Ceasefire is still in force" SLMM spokesman Teitur Torkelsson says. (22 April 2003)-(Daily News)

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• France has asked LTTE and the GOSL to overcome their differences and resume their Norwegian- backed peace talks, the French embassy here April 22. The embassy quoted a foreign ministry spokesperson as saying that France deplored the announcement LTTE's April 21 by the LTTE that it had suspended peace negotiations with GOSL. (22 April 2003)-(Prolog/AFP and http://www.ptd.net/webnews/wed/do/Qsrilanka-tamil-france.RqBe_DAO.html on 24 April 2003) • The LTTE today postponed the meeting of the Sub-committee on Immediate Humanitarian Rehabilitation Needs (SIHRN) scheduled for this week, to "await action and implementation on urgent matters ... of resettlement and rehabilitation of Internally Displaced People and of refugees." (23 April 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) • Tamil Tigers decide to boycott a crucial panel on humanitarian issues, set up as part of the Norway- backed peace talks between the rebels and the Sri Lankan government. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, which suspended peace talks with the Sri Lankan government on Monday, said it will indefinitely boycott the Sub-committee on Immediate Humanitarian Rehabilitation Needs (SIHRN). (24 April 2003)- (PTI http://www.ptinews.com/nextstory.asp?main=International&ID=745&rec=none) • Exerting pressure on the LTTE to renounce separatism and return to the negotiating table, the United States today slammed it for "prolonging the conflict" by "pursuing a violent, separatist agenda". Countering the LTTE at its basics, the U.S. envoy to Sri Lanka, Ashley Wills, said: "The LTTE's weapons and armed cadre are not protecting Tamil rights; they are prolonging this conflict and delaying the day when Tamils can live in truly peaceful conditions". (24 April 2003)-(The Hindu (International)/The Island/Daily Mirror/ www.theacademic.org) • About 500 Buddhist monks lifted their blockade of Norway's embassy in Colombo today, after they were allowed to submit a letter detailing their worries about the Norwegian-brokered cease-fire between GOSL and LTTE. (24 April 2003)-(AP/www.theacademic.org) • A total of 55 persons from 20 families in the general area of Veppankulam, about 27 km southeast of Mannar have vacated their houses and taken refuge elsewhere after an alleged shooting incident in which a Tamil person died of injuries on 20 April 2003 around 7.00 p.m. Information received confirmed that those Muslim families have begun thus vacating in fear of reprisals and also due to destruction of some of their dwelling places by an unidentified group of men who stormed their village. (24 April 2003)-(The Island) • The eastern town of Muttur has now turned into a "Refugee Camp" as countless Tamil and Muslim families are now stranded in places of religious worship. (24 April 2003)-(Ravaya of April 25) • Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga has told 'India Today' on April 24 that if she had the reins of government, she would continue the peace process, maybe differently and more efficiently. (25 April 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • Mahanayake of the Asgiriya Chapter, Ven. Udugama Sri Buddharakkitha Thero said on April 23 that the suspension claim by the LTTE on the peace process was a wilful act to evade responsibility at a time the President and the Prime Minister were engaged in a sincere attempt to restore peace. (25 April 2003)- (The Island) • The SLMM has withdrawn proposals to the GOSL to "recognize sea tigers as a de facto naval unit" of the LTTE and demarcate areas at sea for "live firing exercises" for them. (26 April 2003)-(Sunday Times) • Lingasamy Devarasa, a former LTTE cadre, was shot dead by three suspected LTTE pistol gang members at Pepiliyana, Kohuwela, today night. (26 April 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • Economics Reform Minister, Milinda Moragoda, refuses to take part further in suspended peace talks as the LTTE had breached his trust, a source close to the negotiator says. (27 April 2003)- (Reuters/http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/COL35968.htm) • The government makes a goodwill gesture towards the LTTE to lure it back into resuming peace talks by announcing that the High Security Zone (HSZ) around the Gnanam and Subash Hotels in Jaffna would be relocated to the Jaffna Fort area. (28 April 2003)-(www.lankapage.com on April 29) • On May 1 the US, expressing guarded optimism that surrounded Lanka peace process, says that the (George) Bush administration would continue to designate the LTTE as a foreign terrorist organization until it unequivocally renounces terrorism in both word and deed. (1 May 2003)-(Daily Mirror/Daily News) • The JVP will unconditionally support the President if she takes the bold step of halting the Eelam building process that the LTTE and the government are engaged in together says Somawansa Amarasinghe, leader of JVP at its May Day Rally. (1 May 2003)-(The Island on May 4) • LTTE on May 1 rejected GOSL offer to relocate some of its troops in Jaffna deepening a standoff over stalled peace talks. (2 May 2003)-(Reuters/The Island) • The LTTE has proposed four amendments to the existing ceasefire agreement. The proposed amendments which envisaged changes relating to problems in North East sea area, high security zones, A-9 and the Powers of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) were forwarded to the Norwegian ambassador by LTTE's Thamilselvan at a three-hour long meeting. (2 May 2003)-(The Island) Copyright © Social Indicator May 2003

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• EPDP demands that the government either protect the party or return its surrendered weapons so it can defend itself against the LTTE, according to a government official. (4 May 2003)- (AP/www.theacademic.org) • The head of truce monitors Retired Norwegian Maj. Gen. Triggve Tellefsen wants the Sri Lanka Navy to confine its exercises, particularly live firing, to specified areas at sea and wants to carve out separate areas for Sea Tigers for training and live firing after repeating his earlier call to recognize them as a "de facto naval unit. "No detections or inspections of Sea Tiger vessels will be permitted for the Sri Lanka Navy in these carved out areas without SLMM monitors. In effect, for the Sri Lanka Navy, these areas will be “no go” zones unless the monitors are with them. (3-4 May 2003)-(Sunday Times/http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=86420) • Some civilians in Jaffna today morning picketed the entrance of Jaffna Fort preventing Sri Lanka Army (SLA) soldiers and Police from clearing the area outside the Jaffna fort in preparation for relocating the Jaffna garrison of the SLA. The Jaffna District Peoples Organizations and Jaffna University Students Union organized the picketing campaign. (5 May 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) • Minister of Communications Imithiyas Bakeer Makar says that residences in Jaffna will receive daily mail from June 2003. He said this at the opening ceremony of the Vavuniya Main Post Office today. (5 May 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga has written to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe about the government’s inactivity regarding the serial killings of Tamil Intelligence Officers attached to the Army. (6 May 2003)-(www.colombopage.com) • The Department for the Registration of Companies has reported a sharp increase in the number of new companies and businesses registered in the first quarter of the current year. (6 May 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • A Police and Army combine operation unit have detected a Sea Tiger suicide boat hidden in Velvetithurai last evening a senior Police officer says. (6 May 2003)-(www.theacademic.org) • The former Chief of Staff of the Indian Army, Major General Sathis Nambiar, has said that no decision would be reached on the question of high security zones in the North that would create a threat to the territorial integrity or sovereignty of Sri Lanka. (8 May 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • A constitutional wrangle over the takeover of the Development Lotteries Board (DLB) by President Kumaratunga deepened today as she insisted her action was legal while Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe contended it was not. President Kumaratunga sought to bring the DLB under her purview through a Gazette notification on the night of May 9. The move was thwarted after pro-UNF Government mobs stormed the Government Press triggering off incidents that led to the premises being sealed and employees ceasing work. (11 May 2003)-(Sunday Times) • LTTE said today they were training more fighters to maintain their military strength. While both sides say a return to armed conflict is unlikely, observers fear that the rebels' refusal to disarm could damage the peace process. (12 May 2003)-(AP/www.theacademic.org) • The commander of the Sri Lankan Navy (SLN) Vice Adm. Daya Sandagiri has written to the defence secretary to say that the SLN will no longer accept rulings of the Scandenavian-staffed Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) which are in gross violation of the terms of the ceasefire agreement (CFA) of February 2002. (18 May 2003)-(Sunday Times) • The main Opposition People's Alliance today accused the government of over-riding the recommendations of the country's own Army and Navy commanders regarding matters relating to sovereignty and obtaining the services of Indian consultants-General Satish Nambiar and Vice Admiral Jacob- which they termed a ploy that would ultimately put the army at risk. (9 May 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • Economic growth rose progressively during the year and recorded an annual growth rate of 4 per cent in 2002, in contrast to a contraction of 1.5 per cent in 2001. (10 May 2003)-(The Island) • The government has partially accepted a proposal to increase security to President Chandrika Kumaratunga, a senior government spokesman said today. (17 May 2003)-(The Island) • The JVP said today it had finalised a memorandum of understanding with the SLFP in a bid to topple the UNF government. (18 May 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • In a conciliatory gesture the LTTE announced today it is sending a large stock of rice and other dry rations to flood victims in Ratnapura. (20 May 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The LTTE today renounced a military solution and assured its fullest commitment to a permanent political settlement while making a fervent appeal to the international community to ensure that the immediate humanitarian and reconstruction needs of the north and east are attended to urgently. (22 May 2003)-(Daily Mirror)

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• The main opposition People's Alliance (PA) today rejected the proposal for an interim council in the Northeast made by the LTTE, and warned that it would be forced to take constitutional remedies if Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe agreed to the council “contrary to” the constitution. (23 May 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) • The Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC), a constituent of the United National Front (UNF) government, in a press release today declared that it would wholeheartedly support the interim council proposal put forward by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). (25 May 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) • The government is offering LTTE direct control over reconstruction work in Sri Lanka - 's war-battered northeast in a new proposal aimed at reviving stalled peace negotiations, officials said today. (26 May 2003)- (AP/BBC/http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aXD0YlqNTDQg&refer=asia) • The Japanese government, a main organiser of next month's mega-aid conference, has decided to go ahead with its previous plan. The conference will take place in June as scheduled. Minister Milinda Moragoda today left for Japan to assure that the Sri Lanka government will participate at the conference despite the LTTE's boycott. (26 May 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • Sri Lanka's United National Front (UNF) government today responded to the request of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) that an interim administration (IA) with adequate powers to effectively handle the reconstruction, rehabilitation and resettlement of the war ravaged northeast province should be established before Tokyo aid summit talks begin next month, sources said. -May 26- http://news.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=9073 • The Sinhala hardliner Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) today declared that it would go all out to thwart the attempt by the United National Front (UNF) government to grant interim administration for the north east as demanded by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), sources in Colombo said. (26 May 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) • JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva says that his party is totally against the LTTE’s request for an interim administration unit in the North and East. Mr. Silva made this statement in Colombo yesterday at a media briefing on the current political situation in the country. (27 May 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The Federation of the Bhikkhus for Rescue of the Motherland presented a petition with 30,000 signatures to the Japanese Embassy and accused the Japanese envoy Yashushi Akhashi of striving to divide the nation and persuading the notorious Tamil Tigers to attend the Tokyo peace summit, thereby causing intervention and blatant violation of the sovereignty of Sri Lanka. (27 May 2003)-(The Island) • President Chandrika Kumaratunga says that she is prepared ‘on principle’ to hold talks with the LTTE leadership and is not opposed to the resettlement of people in high security zones in the North other than at Palaly where the airport is situated. The President stated her stance to Hindu Religious Affairs Minister T. Maheswaran, who met her to discuss the problems facing the Tamil community. (30 May 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission charges that LTTE was violating the ceasefire agreement and shooting their own feet by not complying with the Mission's ruling to release a sailor under LTTE’s custody. (30 May 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The LTTE has rejected the alternate proposals submitted by the government and criticized it for not specifying the participatory role of the Tigers in the proposed structure for development of the North East. (31 May 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The international community has expressed its dismay over the LTTE’s rejection of the Sri Lankan government’s proposal to set up an interim administration for development in the North and East. India, Australia and the European Union urged the Tigers to restart the peace talks without preconditions and added that the peace process should get back on track as soon as possible. “This is not the time for playing ball games with the national crisis and two hostile parties should start talks immediately,” the EU told the LTTE. (31 May 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)

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FINDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM 23RD MAY TO 3RD JUNE 2003

♦ Between May 2002 and May 2003 uncertainty as to when there will be peace in Sri Lanka remains the same (May ‘02 – 60%, July ’02 – 58.4%, September ’02 – 58.6%, November ’02 – 57.6%, January ’03 – 60.1%, March ’03 – 61.9% and May ’03 – 60.4%). 65.4% of the Sinhala community and 42.3% of the Muslim community are unable to indicate when there will be peace in Sri Lanka, while 52.3% of the Up-country Tamil community feel that there will be peace soon. However, there is a division of opinion within the Tamil community, with 40.5% uncertain as to when there will be peace in Sri Lanka, while 41.9% believe that there will be peace soon. (Ref. Page 13)

♦ The belief that the origin/cause of the war in Sri Lanka is ‘Communal Politics’ has increased from 36.3% in March 2003 to 41.5% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 14)

♦ A majority (87.4%) continues to believe that ‘Peace talks’ is the way to end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka. (Ref. Page 15)

♦ 7.6% believe that the reason there hasn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 years is because the LTTE does not want peace. This opinion has declined since March 2003 (13.1%). In March 2003 10.1% of the Muslim community and 15% of the Sinhala community believed that the LTTE does not want peace, while in May 2003, 17% of the Muslim community and 7.7% of the Sinhala community believe that the LTTE does not want peace. In May 2003, the Tamil (51.9%), Muslim (43.4%) and Up-country Tamil (21.1%) communities believe that corrupt military and political leaders are the reason there hasn’t been a solution to the war. This is an increase from March 2003, where 25.1% of the Tamil, 12.7% of the Muslim and 37.4% of the Up-country Tamil communities believe the same. (Ref. Page 16)

♦ In May 2003, 15.1% of the Tamil community do not believe that the Government is committed to find peace through talks. This is an increase from 10.2% in March 2003. 44.9% of Sri Lankans believe that the LTTE is not committed to find peace through talks. 8.1% of the Tamil community also believe the same, which is an increase from March 2003 (Tamil – 3.5%). 16.8% of the Sinhala and 53.6% of the Muslim communities believe that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks, which is an increase from March 2003 (Sinhala – 11.3%, Muslim – 40.2%). (Ref. Page 17 and Page 18)

♦ 36.8% of Sri Lankans believe that the Government goes in for talks due to its ‘Commitment to peace’ while 29% believe that it is the ‘Realisation that this war cannot be won’. When asked why they think the LTTE goes in for talks, 29.1% believe that it is ‘To fool the people’. However there is an increase in the opinion that the LTTE goes in for talks due to ‘International pressure’ (18.5% in March 2003 to 23.2% in May 2003) as well as in the opinion that the LTTE goes in for talks due to ‘Economic hardship’ (15.7% in March 2003 to 20% in May 2003). (Ref. Page 19 and Page 20)

♦ While 26.7% of Sri Lankans believe that only the Government and the LTTE should be involved in negotiations, 23.3% advocate the widest range of involvement in negotiations. 30.7% of the Sinhala community believe that only the Government and the LTTE should be involved in the negotiations, while 36.2% of the Tamil community believe that the ‘Government, LTTE and an International third party’ should be involved. On the other hand, the Muslim (66.4%) and the Up-country Tamil (34.2%) communities believe in the widest range of involvement in negotiations. (Ref. Page 21)

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♦ Over 63% of Sri Lankans believe that an international third party’s involvement will have a positive impact or will be essential for the peace process. The Muslim community (74.3%) believe that an international third party’s involvement is essential, which is an increase from March 2003 (59.7%). (Ref. Page 22)

♦ The decline, since November 2002, in the approval of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process has reversed in May 2003 (November 2002 – 46.3%, January 2003 – 42.3%, March 2003 – 38% and May 2003 - 43.3%). In May, compared to the other communities, the Muslim community’s approval of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process has increased to 67.6% from 45.6% in March 2003. (Ref. Page 23)

♦ The Muslim community’s approval of Norway continuing to facilitate talks has increased from 46.9% in March 2003 to 61.6% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 24)

♦ 61.9% believe that India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process will have a positive impact or will be essential for the peace process. (Ref. Page 25)

♦ Of those aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA), 43.5% believe such a monitoring mission will add a positive impact, while 29% believe that it is essential for the CFA to succeed. The Sinhala community (50.8%) express that foreign monitors will add a positive impact while the other communities express that such a monitoring mission is essential (Tamil – 90.2%, Muslim – 72.7% and Up-country Tamil – 71%). The Muslim community’s opinion that the involvement of foreign monitors is essential has increased from 56.7% in March 2003 to 72.7% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 26)

♦ Sri Lankans seem to have a divided opinion when asked about the SLMM’s impartiality (Agree – 32.1%, Disagree – 30.1%) and effectiveness (Agree – 29.4%, Disagree – 29.4%). A majority of the Tamil (Impartial – 74.1%, Effective - 62.1%) and Up-country Tamil (Impartial – 66%, Effective - 60.5%) communities express their agreement with the SLMM’s impartiality and effectiveness, while the Sinhala and Muslim communities have a divided opinion in this regard. (Ref. Page 27 and Page 28)

♦ Having assessed SLMM’s role in the peace process during the last two months’ period, 31.1% believe that its powers and mandate should remain the same, while 23.5% believe that they need to be broadened. 30.7% were unable to respond to the question. (Ref. Page 29)

♦ When asked as to whether overseas nationality representation in the SLMM should be expanded with more countries, 37% express their agreement. 33.8% don’t know or are not sure, while 21.8% disagree with this statement. (Ref. Page 30)

♦ 33.7% agree that the number of monitors in the SLMM should be increased, while 35% don’t know or are unsure on how to respond. However 23.1% disagree that the number of monitors of SLMM should be increased. The Sinhala community has a divided opinion as to whether the number of monitors of the SLMM should increase (Agree – 28.6%, Disagree – 25.7%). (Ref. Page 31)

♦ Of those who are aware that the SLMM has identified the Sea Tigers (LTTE’s naval unit), as a de facto naval force, a majority (73.9%) disapproves of it. This opinion stems mainly form the Sinhala (88.5%) and Muslim (55.7%) communities. However, the Tamil (74.9%) and Up-country Tamil (61.7%) communities approve of the SLMM’s decision. (Ref. Page 32)

Peace Confidence Index Page 9 Top-Line Results

♦ While 43.1% of those aware that the LTTE was not invited to the pre-Tokyo donor conference in Washington express their approval of this decision, 38% express their disapproval. 39% of the Muslim community also disapprove of it. (Ref. Page 33)

♦ Of those who are aware that the LTTE, on April 21, 2003, announced that it has decided to suspend its participation in the peace negotiations “for the time being”, 73.7% believe that this decision is an obstacle to peace. This opinion stems from 78.8% of the Sinhala community, a significant 49.8% of the Tamil community, 51.8% of the Muslim community and 42.2% of the Up-country Tamil community. (Ref. Page 34)

♦ Of the Sri Lankans who are aware that the LTTE has asked for a new administrative mechanism to be instituted instead of the Sub-Committee on Immediate Humanitarian Rehabilitation Needs (SIHRN) for the resumption of the peace talks, 58.9% express their disapproval, while 25.4% express their approval of this request. There seems to be an ethnic divide between the Sinhala and Tamil communities. While 82.6% of the Tamil community approve of the request, 70% of the Sinhala community disapprove of it. (Ref. Page 35)

♦ Of those aware that the Government and the LTTE have announced that they are committed to finding a solution based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, 41.7% disapprove of this agreement, which is an increase from March 2003 (36.1%), while 34.1% approve of this agreement. 50.5% of the Sinhala community disapprove of this agreement, which is an increase from March 2003 (39.4%). (Ref. Page 36)

♦ While 34.3% don’t know or are unsure as to whether the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being adequately represented in the peace talks, 30% believe that they are. A majority of the Muslim community (66.2%), however, believe that the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are not being adequately represented, which is an increase from March 2003 (54.9%). 38.7% of the Up-country Tamil community believe that the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being adequately represented in the peace talks, which is a decline from March 2003 (48.9%). (Ref. Page 37)

♦ 58.9% of the Muslim community believe that the current inadequate representation of the interests and concerns of the Eastern Muslims, in the peace talks, will have a negative impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 38)

♦ 35.4% believe that there should be a separate Muslim delegation at the peace talks, which is a slight increase from March 2003 (29.5%). While the Sinhala, Tamil and Up- country Tamil communities are divided over this issue, a majority of the Muslim community (83.7%) believes that there should be a separate Muslim delegation in the peace talks. (Ref. Page 39)

♦ Of those aware of the violence that took place on April 17-19 in the Muttur area in the Eastern Province, over 50% believe that ‘Members of the LTTE’ were responsible for it. While 63.2% and 40.9% of the Sinhala and Muslim communities respectively believe that ‘Members of the LTTE’ were responsible, 24.2% and 49.1% of the Tamil and Up-country Tamil communities respectively, believe that ‘Members of the Muslim community’ were responsible. However 20.8% of the Tamil community believe that the responsibility falls on the ‘Members of the Sinhala community’, while 27.2% of the Up-country Tamil community believe that ‘Members of the Tamil community’ are responsible. (Ref. Page 40)

Peace Confidence Index Page 10 Top-Line Results

♦ 45.1% of those aware of the violence in the Muttur area approve of the role played by the Government in ending these clashes, while 32.8% don’t know or are unsure. However 13.4% disapprove of the Government’s role in ending these clashes. (Ref. Page 41)

♦ Of those aware of the Muttur violence, 37.9% don’t know or are unsure of the role played by the LTTE in ending these clashes, while 35.5% disapprove of the LTTE’s role. However, 17.1% approve of LTTE’s role in ending these clashes. (Ref. Page 42)

♦ While 47.9% of those aware of the Muttur violence don’t know or are unsure of the role played by the SLMM in ending these clashes, 22.8% approve of the SLMM’s role. There is however disapproval from 16% of Sri Lankans with regard to the SLMM’s role in ending these clashes. (Ref. Page 43)

♦ 46.1% of those aware of the Muttur violence don’t know or are unsure of the role played by the Muslim political parties in ending these clashes. However, 22.9% approve of the role played by the Muslim political parties while 18.2% disapprove of their role in ending these clashes. (Ref. Page 44)

♦ While 52% of those aware of the Muttur violence don’t know or are unsure of the role played by the religious and community organisations of the area in ending these clashes, 27.7% approve of their role. (Ref. Page 45)

♦ 47.3% of Sri Lankans don’t know or are not sure as to whether the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) needs to be strengthened and expanded, while 36.7% believe that the CFA needs to be strengthened and expanded. (Ref. Page 46)

♦ Of those aware of the May 9, 2003 decision by the President to take over the Development Lotteries Board, 30.6% approve of this decision, while 41.3% were unable to comment on the decision. (Ref. Page 47)

♦ 47.1% of those aware of the President’s decision to take over the Development Lotteries Board believe that this decision will have no impact on the peace process. 35% however are unable to express their opinion on this matter. The Sinhala (48.7%) and the Tamil (46.7%) communities believe that the President’s decision to take over the Development Lotteries Board will have no impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 48)

For further information please contact:

Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: 370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 11 Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI)

MAY 2001 – MAY 2003

THE PERCEPTION OF WAR AND PEACE

What does ‘peace’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

70 63 60 54 52.7 54.5 53.9 50.6 50.5 49.2 47.8 51.9 50 46.1 47.2 44.9 41.4 End of war 39 40 36.7 37.5 36.4 42.7 35.9 34.7 35.8 38.2 % 34.7 35 31 Ethnic Harmony 35.7 34.7 35 34.1 30 32 31.2 24.7 29.3 27.6 29 Feeling Safe 25.9 25.4 21.6 20 16.7 17.7 16.2 18.3 Freedom 16.2 15.3 14.9 15.5 14.9 10 10.4 11.2 12.6 9.8

0 May '01 September January '02 May '02 September January '03 May '03 '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

6.1 18.5 Up-country Tamil 70.9 1.3 27.1 61.2 Muslim Freedom 81.6 Feeling safe 9.4 Ethnic Harmony 36.8 End of war 22.8 Tamil 64 29.5

41 11.8 Sinhala 47.4 30.4

0 102030405060708090 %

What does ‘war’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

60.2 58.9 60 57.8 56.2 54.4 55.9 56.7 51.3 50.8 Means to achieving peace 50

43.142.8 39.6 Fighting for rights 40 35.3 % 30.3 30.1 Disharmony amongst 27.1 27.4 27.7 30 24.5 25.2 26.4 26.2 races 23.9 26 22.9 22.9 23.6 20.3 21.2 25.7 22.4 21.5 18.2 22.3 Hindrance to economic 20 21.5 17.1 16.2 16.2 15 16.7 15.6 growth/ Rise in cost of 12.3 16.4 16.6 15.8 living 16.8 11.1 9.8 9.4 13.2 10 12.4 10.9 12.9 8.7 10 Death / Destruction 11.4 9.9 10.1 7.8 8.7 7.8 0.3 8.6 2.7 3.5 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.5 4.6 2 0 Terrorism June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

1 43.9 32.1 Up-country Tamil 36.9 8.2 1 Terrorism

9.7 67.8 44.5 Death / Destruction Muslim 63.1 19.6 3.7 Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living 11.7 64.4 18.6 Disharmony amongst races Tamil 15.4 29 4 Fighting for rights 7.7 55.8 Means to achieving peace Sinhala 20.4 34.6 7.7 1.7

0 1020304050607080 %

When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?

National Trend

80 71.3 70 63.8 61.9 57.9 60 58.6 60.1 58.4 57.6 60 53.9 54.5 57.2 60.4

50 Soon

% 40 Never

30 24.8 24.8 22.1 21.1 Don't know 18.9 21 17.3 20 13.4 17.7 19.3 11 9.9 10.2 9 7.6 10 6.7 6.8 4.9 8.5 10.6 10.4 10 7.5 7.2 8.2 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January May '03 '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

27.7 2 2 Up-country Tamil 1.3 14.5 52.3 42.3 5.1 1.4 Don't know Muslim 10.4 Never 13.3 26.4 Not in my life time 40.5 Within the next ten years 1.6 Within the next five years 2 Tamil 4.2 Soon 9 41.9

65.4 9.8 2 Sinhala 2.2 4.7 15 0 10203040506070 %

In your opinion what was the origin/cause(s) of the war in Sri Lanka? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

45 41.6 41.5 40.3 39.3 41.5 40 37.8 36.3 34.5 35.1 33.8 33.4 35 36.2 29.2 33.1 29.2 30 28 Communal politics 26 25.6 24.7 24.4 % 25 Discrimination against 22.5 Tamils 24.3 20.4 20 19.5 Discrimination against 17.9 14.8 14.2 15.2 Sinhalese 15 13.2 12.4 11.7 12.3 Sinhala chauvinism 11.7 11 12.1 14.3 9.2 9.9 9 8.7 11.2 10 7.8 8.7 8.2 9.1 8.3 10.4 10.6 Tamil chauvinism 9 4.9 9.8 8.4 7.1 6.6 8.1 6.9 8 5 6.8 7 2.9 2 Terrorism 1.4 3.6 4 4.2 4 3.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.6 3.3 0 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

3.8 19.2 28.7 Up-country Tamil 9.8 50.3 11.6

7.3 7.3 41.4 Terrorism Muslim 7.3 58.3 Tamil chauvinism 54.2 Sinhala chauvinism 2.5 0 5.6 Tamil Discrimination against 0.7 Sinhalese 64 28.9 Discrimination against Tamils

13.8 Communal politics 11.3 Sinhala 8.2 1.6 10.9 43.1 0 10203040506070 %

SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT

How do you think we can end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

100 87.2 86 86.7 90 85 84.4 83.7 80.7 83.7 87.4 80 71.3 71.9 68.6 70 59.1 60 Government defeating the LTTE % 50 LTTE defeating 40 the Government 30 24.4 20 18 19.9 Peace talks 20 9.9 10.1 7.6 7 7.2 10.4 10 6.5 7 1.3 0.8 1 5.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.8 1 1.1 0.3 0.4 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January May '03 '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

95.3 Up-country Tamil 0 2.1

96.7 Muslim 1.3 Peace talks 0.1 LTTE defeating the 96.6 Government Tamil 0.8 Government defeating the 0 LTTE

85.4 Sinhala 0.3 8.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 %

Why do you think there hasn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 odd years? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 46.2 44.2 44 44.2 45 41.8 40.5 44 39.1 39.4 40 37.3 36.7 37.1 41.4 34.1 38.5 Corrupt military 35 33.4 34.8 and political 34.8 35 33.1 leaders 32.7 30 30.9 31.8 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.2 No political will % 25 25.8 24.5 19.5 20 22.2 19.1 21.2 20.7 LTTE does not want peace 18.5 18.6 18.2 15 13.1 15.7 11.3 War is necessary 10 for people in 10.6 10.5 7.5 7.6 9.3 power 5 8.6 7.3 6.5 7 0 4.8 6.5 0 May '01 September January May '02 September January May '03 '01 '02 '02 '03

Ethnic Breakdown

21.5 17.3 2.6 Up-country Tamil 4.4 33.8 21.1 24.9 28.4 17 Muslim 6.6 Don't know 26 43.4 War is necessary for people in power LTTE does not want peace 10.4 23.3 The strength of the LTTE 1.1 Tamil No political will 2.4 39.8 Corrupt military and political leaders 51.9 15 13.9 7.7 Sinhala 6.5 46.4 33.4 0 102030405060

CONFIDENCE

I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

80 69.8 70.2 70 63.7 61.8 58 59.4 56.7 60 53 50.2 50.1 53.9 50 43.8 44 Agree

% 40 Disagree 31.4 30 23.8 22.5 24.5 22.5 20 15.1 12 20.9 11.9 19.1 9.8 9.1 18.6 10

0 May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

8.4 Up-country Tamil 8 70.4

11.5 Muslim 12.5 Disagree 66.3 Neither agree nor disagree 15.1 Tamil 2.6 Agree 69.6

24.8 Sinhala 12.7 50.6

0 1020304050607080 %

I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.

National Trend

68.5 70 63.5

60 53.2 50.6

50 45.7 45.7 42.7 39.5 39.8 44.9 Agree 38.2 38.9 % 40 32.9 Disagree

30 22.2 28.3 29.3 29 25.7 17.3 27.3 27.5 20 15.8 25.7 12.9 19.7 9.8 10

0 May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

7.2 Up-country Tamil 9.9 66.8

13.1 Muslim 19.3 Disagree 53.6

8.1 Neither agree nor disagree Tamil 2 77.4 Agree

52.7 Sinhala 15.6

16.8

0 102030405060708090 %

Why do you think that the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 48.8 45.3 44.6 42.1 39 41.7 39.5 38.3 38.3 40 35.8 38 Commitment to peace 35.5 32.4 36.8 % 33.2 32.5 37.5 Economic hardship 28.9 29.9 28.6 30 33.4 27 27.2 24.1 29 24.1 International pressure 29.6 24.5 28.9 23.8 19.9 19.8 24.1 24.6 Realisation that this war 20 18.6 18 17.2 cannot be won 19.7 17.6 20.1 12.4 14.1 12.9 13.1 16.2 12.2 10 To fool the people 14.5 15.5 9.7 10.3 10 11.9 8 10.3 10.6 10.9 11 Lack of manpower 9.5 8.4 8.8 7.1 7.1 7.4 6.6 4.5 5.2 3.7 4.2 3.5 4.3 3.2 3.9 0 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

2.9 1.6 32.8 Up-country Tamil 9 40 39.8 Lack of manpower 15.2 8.5 41.4 Muslim To fool the people 43.1 59.7 27.7 Realisation that this war cannot be won 4.4 International pressure 1.3 18.8 Tamil 26.3 Economic hardship 41.1 41.5 Commitment to peace 2.7 15.1 28.6 Sinhala 7.2 18.4 37

0 10203040506070 %

Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]

National Trend

50 44.9 45

40 Commitment to peace 34.6 35 31.3 31.5 30.8 Economic hardship 30.8 28.7 29.1 30 28.5 27.9 27.7 International pressure 29.1 27.3 25.1 27.4 % 24.7 25.6 25 24.3 25 24.5 Realisation that this war 22.4 23.4 23.9 22.5 23.2 cannot be won 18.7 20.4 20.5 18.3 19.1 19 18.5 20 18.2 20 20 To fool the people 15.4 16.9 16.7 15.9 18.6 14.6 16.1 16.7 15.2 14.9 13.9 18.1 16.1 15.7 15 13.9 16.5 Lack of manpower 15.5 14.6 12.9 14.9 14.6 12.3 13.1 12.8 13.2 14.5 13.8 12.8 14.4 12.6 10 8.9 12.5 12.4 11.9 10.3 8.5 5 6.6

0 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

5.6 0 25 Up-country Tamil 9.8 38.7 44.6

39.2 Lack of manpower 12.3 35.9 Muslim 38.5 To fool the people 36.3 29.1 Realisation that this war cannot be 2.5 won 1.3 International pressure 4.9 Tamil 32 23.9 Economic hardship 44.1 Commitment to peace 10.7 34.4 24.9 Sinhala 22 17.3 7.1

0 1020304050 % THE PEACE PROCESS

Who should be involved in negotiations?

National Trend 40 36.7

35 32.1 33.9 30 31.3 Govt. and LTTE only 25.8 27 25.1 26.7 25 21.9 23 21.6 21.7 23.3 19.9 20.3 Govt.,LTTE and % 20 19 18.3 International third party 16.2 15.9 16.4 19.1 only 15.1 18.6 15 14.2 17.2 12.4 12.1 16.6 16.4 15.5 15.5 11 Govt., Opposition, 13.5 14 12.9 9.8 LTTE,Tamil, Muslim 10 6.6 9.5 9.5 parties and a third party 4.3 4 4.8 5 No peace talks 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.4 1 1.5 0.9 0 May '01 September January '02 May '02 September January '03 May '03 '01 '02

Ethnic Breakdown

2.1 0 34.2 8.9 Don't know Up-country Tamil 28.7 10.7 7 5.9 No peace talks 3.6 0 66.4 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim 21.5 1.3 Muslim parties and a third party 0.8 0 2.5 Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil 5.4 and Muslim parties only 0 7.3 6.6 Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil Tamil 17.6 parties and a third party 2.5 36.2 16.4 Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only 6.1 1.1 20.4 Govt.,LTTE and International third 9.3 Sinhala 7.6 party only 3.4 8.2 Govt. and LTTE only 30.7 0 10203040506070 INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION%

What is your opinion of the need for an international third party’s involvement to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka?

National Trend

40 38 35.8 35 32.6 31.9 32.5 32.5 30.9 32.1 30.2 30.6 29.8 30 28.9 31.7 29 29 29.3 24.2 28.8 29 Is essential 25 26.1 21.8 20.9 Will add a positive % 20 impact 16.7 17.9 Will have no impact 16.8 16.5 14.2 16.2 16 13.2 15 14.2 13.1 14.5 Will add a negative 11.3 impact 10 10.5 10.2 9.6 10.3 9.6 9.5 Is not essential 10 11.3 11.6 10 9.9 10.2 9.2 5.7 5.4 4.3 Don't know/Not sure 5 3.2 2.1 5.4 4.6 3.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.9 1 0 1.4 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

8.1 13.9 Up-country Tamil 0.2 1.2 8.8 58.6 11.4 7.9 Don't know/Not sure 0 Is not essential Muslim 1.5 2.9 Will add a negative impact 74.3 Will have no impact 2.7 Will add a positive impact 3 Is essential 0.3 Tamil0 4.9 89 10.5 16.1 4.4 Sinhala 1 37.6 22.4

0 20 40 60 80 100 NORWEGIAN FACILITATION %

Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process

National Trend

60 53.8 50.7 50 46.3 42.4 42.7 42.3 43.3 38 40 37 Approve 29.8 % 30 28.2 24.5 Neither approve 22.4 23 nor disapprove 20.5 23.1 22.7 19.4 Disapprove 20 21.8 18 22.8 22.1 21 21.1 18.7 18 17.9 15.5 Don't know/Not 11.8 sure 10 13.6 12.8 10.2 11.1 9.1 7.8 8.8 0 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

17.8 4.6 Up-country Tamil 9 68.5 14.9 7.3 Muslim 9.9 Don't know/Not sure 67.6

Disapprove 2.8 0.7 Tamil 0 Neither approve nor 96.5 disapprove 23.3 Approve 26.9 Sinhala 13.1 35.5

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 %

Norway continuing to facilitate talks.

National Trend

50 44.1 45 42.6 38.7 40 38.2 41.3 35

29.4 30 Approve 26.9 % Neither approve nor 25 22.6 23.3 22.2 20.9 19.7 disapprove 20 Disapprove 21.8 21.8 21.8 13.2 15 11.9 Don't know/Not sure 12.4 13.6 10 10.7 5

0 September '02 November '02 January '03 March '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

19.9 5.4 Up-country Tamil 7 66.2

14.9 7.7 Muslim Don't know/Not sure 15.5 61.6 Disapprove 2.8 1 Tamil Neither approve nor 0 disapprove 96.2 Approve 24 26.1 Sinhala 13.4 35.2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 %

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT

What is your opinion of the need for India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?

National Trend

40 39.6 35.9 33.8 35.5 35 31.7 32.7 Is essential 30 27 Will add a positive impact 25 Will have no impact % 26.1 26.6 20.8 22.3 19.2 20 18.6 16.2 16.4 17.4 Will add a negative 15.6 impact 14.9 16.8 15.8 15 13.6 Is not essential 14.3 16.2 13.5 13 12.4 10 13.1 12.5 7.1 Don't know/Not sure 5.9 9.2 5.6 8.4 3.5 5.3 5 2.7 1.9 1.3 1.2 3 1.6 0 1.7 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

1.9 8.1 0.2 Up-country Tamil 1 11.8 76.4 9.4 Don't know/Not sure 12.8 4 Muslim 5.4 Is not essential 14.1 50.8 Will add a negative 17.7 impact 15.1 4.6 Will have no impact Tamil 3.6 8.9 50 Will add a positive 12.8 impact 13.9 5.8 Is essential Sinhala 1.2 45.9 14.7

0 20406080100 %

RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION

If you are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire, what is your opinion of the need for such a monitoring mission for the ceasefire agreement to succeed?

National Trend

45 43 Is essential 41.5 43.5 39.4 39.3 40.5 40 37.9 37.5 33.6 Will have a positive 35 31.2 impact 29.7 30 26.7 26.3 26.7 29 Will have no impact 25.3 % 25 Will have a negative 20 impact 15 10.3 Is not essential 9.6 10 8.4 7.3 5.6 6.7 5.6 4.6 5.8 6.9 7.2 5 5.2 4.5 7.5 5.2 5.3 Will be a threat to the 4.2 4.2 1.9 4.1 3.8 4.1 3.7 2.8 sovereignty of Sri 1.9 0.6 0 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.2 Lanka March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03

Ethnic Breakdown

0 0 Up-country 0 Tamil0.3 20.1 71 Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka 0 10.3 0 Is not essential Muslim 1.3 10.7 72.7 Will have a negative impact 0 2.8 Tamil 0 0.7 Will have no impact 2.1 90.2 0.3 7.6 Will have a positive impact 6.4 Sinhala 3.1 50.8 Is essential 18.3 0 20406080100 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

40 35.5 35 33.2 32.8 31.7 29 30.3 32.1 33.1 30 30.1 27.4 26.8 27 28.9 27.6 Agree 25 22.5 23.6 21.4 21.3 Neither agree 22.8 nor disagree % 20 19.6 15.7 Disagree 19.2 17.4 18 18.9 15 18 17.8 Don't know/Not 14.6 sure 10

0 May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

15.2 2.8 Up-country Tamil 16 66

20.2 24.1 Muslim 16.5 Don't know/Not sure 38.6

13.5 Disagree 5 Tamil 6.2 Neither agree nor disagree 74.1 Agree 20.3 33.9 Sinhala 18.6 26.5 0 1020304050607080 %

I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.

National Trend

35 31.4 30.5 30.6 29.4 28.7 30 28 Agree 26.1 26 26.6 29.4 24 25 24.3 25.7 Neither agree 21.3 24.8 23.8 22.8 21.1 nor disagree 20 22.4 % 21.4 19.1 20.3 19.7 19.3 Disagree 15 Don't know/Not 10 sure

0 July '02 September '02 November '02 January '03 March '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

15.2 6.4 Up-country Tamil 18 60.5 16.8 21.8 Muslim 22.3 Don't know/Not sure 38.6 Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 22.9 7.6 Agree Tamil 5.1 62.1 21.5 32.9 Sinhala 20.3 24.6

0 10203040506070 %

When assessing SLMM’s role in the peace process during the last two months’ period, in your opinion, its powers and mandate needs to be…

National Breakdown

23.5 30.7 Broadened Should remain same Narrowed No response

14.7 31.1

Ethnic Breakdown

30.7 14.7 National 31.1 23.5

5.7 8.6 Up-country Tamil 27.1 58.6 No response 17.5 Narrowed 27.1 Muslim Should remain same 27.8 27.5 Broadened

29.8 0.4 Tamil 3.8 66.1

32.7 15.3 Sinhala 34 18

0 10203040506070

Overseas nationality representation of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission should be expanded with more countries.

National Breakdown

Agree 33.8 37

Neither agree nor disagree Disagree

21.8 7.4 Don't know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

33.8 21.8 National 7.4 37

17.8 18.5 Up-country Tamil 4.9 58.9 Don't know/Not sure 19.5 17 Muslim 9.9 Disagree 53

29.2 Neither agree nor 9.4 disagree Tamil 1.6 58.5 Agree 34.8 23.4 Sinhala 7.8 33 0 10203040506070 %

The number of monitors of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission should be increased.

National Breakdown

33.7 35 Agree

Neither agree nor disagree 8.2 Disagree 23.1

Don't know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

35 23.1 National 8.2 33.7 15.3 Don't know/Not 10.3 Up-country Tamil sure 8.5 65.9 Disagree 19.4 18 Muslim Neither agree nor 10 disagree 52 Agree 30.3 4.7 Tamil 2.5 61.4

36 25.7 Sinhala 8.6 28.6 0 10203040506070

If you are aware that the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission has identified the Sea Tigers (LTTE’s naval unit), as a de facto [not a legal force but exists in practice] naval force, do you approve or disapprove of it?

National Breakdown

8.3 17.8

Approve Disapprove Don’t know/ Not sure

73.9

Ethnic Breakdown

8.3 National 73.9 17.8

23 Up-country Tamil 15.3 61.7

7.3 Don’t know/ Not sure Muslim 55.7 Disapprove 37 Approve

12.8 Tamil 12.3 74.9

7.2 Sinhala 88.5 4.3

0 102030405060708090100 LTTE %

If you are aware that the LTTE was not invited to the pre-Tokyo donor conference in Washington of April 15, 2003, do you approve or disapprove of it?

National Breakdown

18.9 43.1 Approve Disapprove Don't know/ Not sure 38

Ethnic Breakdown

18.9 National 38 43.1

6.6 Up-country Tamil 79.9 13.4 Don't know/ Not sure 33.6 Disapprove Muslim 39 27.4 Approve 0.5 Tamil 91.6 7.5

21.2 Sinhala 23.5 55.3

0 102030405060708090100 %

If you are aware that the LTTE on April 21, 2003 announced that it has decided to suspend its participation in the peace negotiations “for the time being”, do you think that this decision is an obstacle to peace?

National Breakdown

14.3 Yes No Don't know/ Not sure

73.7

Ethnic Breakdown

12 National 14.3 73.7

15.5 Up-country Tamil 36.3 42.2

14.2 Don't know/ Not sure Muslim 31.1 51.8 No 13.4 Tamil 35.4 Yes 49.8

9.3 Sinhala 10.1 78.8

0 102030405060708090 %

If you are aware that the LTTE has asked for a new administrative mechanism to be instituted instead of Sub-Committee on Immediate Humanitarian Rehabilitation Needs (SIHRN) for resumption of peace talks, do you approve of this request?

National Breakdown

15.7 25.4 Approve

Disapprove

Don't know/Not sure 58.9

Ethnic Breakdown

15.7 National 58.9 25.4

11.2 Up-country Tamil 5.8 82.9

14.7 Don't know/Not sure Muslim 58.8 Disapprove 26.5 Approve

15.1 Tamil 2.3 82.6

15.7 Sinhala 70 13.8 0 102030405060708090 % FEDERAL SOLUTION

If you are aware that the Government and the LTTE have announced that they are committed to finding a solution based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of this agreement?

National Trend

45 41.7 40 36.1 34.1 35 33.3 30.6 30 24 March '03 25 May '03 % 20 15 10 5

0 Approve Disapprove Don’t know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

15.1 Up-country Tamil 5.9 79

15.8 Muslim 22.4 60.4 Don’t know/Not sure 8.5

Tamil 4.9 Disapprove 86.5 Approve 27.5 Sinhala 50.5 21.9

0 102030405060708090100 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 37 Top-Line Results

THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY

Do you think that the interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being adequately represented in the peace talks?

National Trend

40 36.5 35.6 34.1 35 34.3 30 28.5 30 29.6 29.4 26.5 25 26.2 % Yes 22.9 20 18.9 No 15 Don't know/Not sure 10

0 November '02 January '03 March '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

28.9 Up-country Tamil 25.3 38.7

14.9 Muslim 66.2 15.8 Don't know/Not sure

43.7 No

Tamil 15.2 Yes 40.7

35.4 Sinhala 24.2 29.9

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 38 Top-Line Results

What in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National trend

50 48.1 46.2

40 34.6 Will have a positive impact % Will have no impact 30 Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure 19.9 20.7 20 21 17.9 18.2 19.6 11.9 10 10.5 6.3 0 January '03 March '03 May '03

Ethnic Breakdown

50.8 13.2 Up-country Tamil 14 11.4

24.2 Don't know/Not sure Muslim 58.9 11.4 Will have a negative 4.8 impact 46.7 Will have no impact 3.6 Tamil 19.2 Will have a positive impact 26.3

50.1 19.6 Sinhala 11.2 18.7 0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 39 Top-Line Results

Do you think there should be a separate Muslim delegation in the peace talks?

National Trend

40 35.4 35 31.5 29.5 28.7 30 27.8 27.5

25 % March '03 20 May '03

0 Yes No Don't know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

19 Up-country Tamil 32 33

6.4 Muslim 3.6 83.7 Don't know/Not sure No 22.3 Yes Tamil 35.5 39.9

30.2 Sinhala 29 31.1

0 20 40 60 80 100 VIOLENCE IN MUTTUR %

Peace Confidence Index Page 40 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the violence that took place on April 17-19 in Muttur area in the Eastern Province, in your opinion who is responsible for causing it?

National Breakdown

60 52 50

% 30

20 16.7 11.9 10 4.1 2.1 1.8 0 Members of Members of STF/ Members of LTTE Members of Members of Tamil Members of Police Armed Forces Sinhala community Muslim community community

Ethnic Breakdown

16.7 11.9 4.1 National 52 2.1 1.8 49.1 27.2 Members of Muslim 7.2 community Up-country Tamil0 7.7 0.6 Members of Tamil 7.4 community 12.8 2.5 Members of Sinhala Muslim 40.9 2.4 community 10 24.2 Members of LTTE 2.5 20.8 Tamil 1.4 3.4 Members of STF/ 0 Armed Forces 15.1 12.1 Members of Police 1.9 Sinhala 63.2 1.6 1

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 41 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the violence that took place on April 17-19 in Muttur area in the Eastern Province, please state your approval on the role played by the Government in ending these clashes?

National Breakdown

Approve 32.8

45.1 Neither approve nor disapprove Disapprove

Don’t know/Not sure 13.4 8.7

Ethnic Breakdown

32.8 13.4 National 8.7 45.1

22.8 0.6 Up-country Tamil 5.3 71.3 Don’t know/Not sure 31.5 14.5 Disapprove Muslim 8.4 Neither approve nor disapprove 45.5 Approve 26.2 8.3 Tamil 2.7 54.5

31.8 14.7 Sinhala 9.7 42.2

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 42 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the violence that took place on April 17-19 in Muttur area in the Eastern Province, please state your approval on the role played by the LTTE in ending these clashes?

National Breakdown

Approve

17.1 Neither approve nor 37.9 disapprove 9.5 Disapprove

Don’t know/Not sure

35.5

Ethnic Breakdown

37.9 35.5 National 9.5 17.1 30.6 0 Up-country Tamil 7.5 Don’t know/Not sure 62

41.6 Disapprove 28.3 Muslim 8.4 20.7 Neither approve nor disapprove 29.8 4.6 Approve Tamil 2.8 57.4 36.2 42.5 Sinhala 10.6 8.8 0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 43 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the violence that took place on April 17-19 in Muttur area in the Eastern Province, please state your approval on the role played by the SLMM in ending these clashes?

National Breakdown

Approve 22.8

Neither approve nor 47.9 disapprove Disapprove 13.3 Don’t know/Not sure 16

Ethnic Breakdown

47.9 16 National 13.3 22.8 45 2.1 Up-country Tamil 13.4 37.4 41.4 Don’t know/Not sure 17.8 Muslim Disapprove 10 Neither approve nor disapprove 30.8 Approve 28.3 4.2 Tamil 3.5 58.6 48.3 18.2 Sinhala 15.1 16.2

0 10203040506070 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 44 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the violence that took place on April 17-19 in Muttur area in the Eastern Province, please state your approval on the role played by Muslim political parties in ending these clashes?

National Breakdown

22.9 Approve 46.1 Neither approve nor disapprove 12.8 Disapprove

18.2 Don’t know/Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

46.1 18.2 National 12.8 22.9

45.6 7.2 Up-country Tamil 13.7 33.5

31.7 Don’t know/Not sure 10.3 Muslim 12.9 Disapprove 45.1 Neither approve nor disapprove Approve 28.6 11.5 Tamil 3.2 51.4

47.3 20.7 Sinhala 14 15.7

0 102030405060 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 45 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the violence that took place on April 17-19 in Muttur area in the Eastern Province, please state your approval on the role played by religious and community organisations of the area, in ending these clashes?

National Breakdown

27.7 Approve

Neither approve nor disapprove

52 Disapprove 9.6 Don’t know/Not sure 10.7

Ethnic Breakdown

52 10.7 National 9.6 27.7

51.2 0.3 Up-country Tamil 12.8 35.8

36.8 Don’t know/Not sure 9.2 Disapprove Muslim 5.4 Neither approve nor disapprove 48.6 Approve 28.6 2.8 Tamil 4.6 58.6

54.2 12.5 Sinhala 10.6 20.4

0 10203040506070 CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT %

Peace Confidence Index Page 46 Top-Line Results

Do you agree with the statement that the Ceasefire Agreement needs to be strengthened and expanded?

National Breakdown

36.7 47.3 Yes No Don't know/ Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

47.3 National 16 36.7

26.1 Up-country Tamil 7 66.8 36.4 Muslim 13.6 Don't know/ Not sure 49.6 No Yes 18.6 Tamil 6.4 75.1

50.8 Sinhala 17.5 30.8

0 1020304050607080

Peace Confidence Index Page 47 Top-Line Results

COHABITATION

If you are aware of the May 9, 2003 decision by the President to take over the Development Lotteries Board, do you approve of this decision?

National Breakdown

30.6 41.3 Approve Disapprove Don't know/Not sure

28.1

Ethnic Breakdown

41.3 National 28.1 30.6

21.3 Up-country Tamil 62.9 15.8

31.6 Muslim 33.2 35.1 Don't know/Not sure Disapprove 18.1 Approve Tamil 72 8.4 44.4 Sinhala 22.4 32.9

0 1020304050607080 %

Peace Confidence Index Page 48 Top-Line Results

If you are aware of the May 9, 2003 decision by the President to take over the Development Lotteries Board, what in your opinion will be the impact of this on the peace process?

National Berakdown

2.5 Will have a positive impact 35

Will have no impact

47.1 Will have a negative 15.4 impact Don't know/ Not sure

Ethnic Breakdown

35 15.4 National 47.1 2.5 35.1 35 Up-country Tamil 21.2 6.3 Don't know/ Not sure 22.4 38 Will have a negative Muslim 38.3 impact 0 Will have no impact 21.2 27.3 Will have a positive Tamil 46.7 impact 0.7 27.3 12 Sinhala 48.7 2.7

0 102030405060 %

District sample (weighted) distribution in May 2003

DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 207 Gampaha 177 Kalutara 90 Kandy 101 Matale 34 Nuwara Eliya 51 Galle 78 Matara 59 Anuradhapura 57 Polonnaruwa 28 Kurunegala 115 Puttlam 54 Badulla 56 Monaragala 28 Kegalle 63 Amparai 42 Batticaloa 39 Trincomalee 31 Vavuniya 12 NATIONAL 1321

Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in May 2003

ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1081 Tamil 90 Muslim 91 Up-country Tamil 59 NATIONAL 1321

ii Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

Sampling Methodology

Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is essential that the study be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.

The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in this model.

The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions. However, some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.

A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.

To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure the random selection of households.

In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI sample.

The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the same level of precision.

Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social research organisation, which conducts polls on socio-economic and political issues. Operating under the Board of Directors of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in September 1999, and filled a longstanding vacuum for a permanent, professional and independent polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political issues. Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a means by which the silent majority of the public can express their opinions on issues affecting them. Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social issues, thereby providing a means through which public opinion can influence the public policy debate.

Published by: Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: 370472 Email: [email protected] Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org