An Opinion Poll On Peace Peace Confidence Index (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS Social Indicator May 2003 © 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives hile many studies have been conducted on various aspects of W this conflict, none have attempted to capture the changes in public perception over a period of time. The lack of such a study was identified as a significant void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) under the Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka, will be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of local and international political developments on public attitudes towards the peace process. Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results CONTENTS • INTRODUCTION 01 • KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 • FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 07 • PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 11 TOP-LINE RESULTS PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE 11 SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT 15 CONFIDENCE 17 THE PEACE PROCESS 21 INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION 22 NORWEGIAN FACILITATION 23 INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT 25 • RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 26 SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION 26 LTTE 33 FEDERAL SOLUTION 36 THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY 37 VIOLENCE IN MUTTUR 40 CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT 46 COHABITATION 47 • ANNEX Copyright © Social Indicator May 2003 Peace Confidence Index Page 1 Top-line Results INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardised questions which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another. Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of the public are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate. SCOPE & METHODOLOGY The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 1,321 respondent sample. The 15 administrative districts of the seven provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Vavuniya were surveyed. The Ratnapura and Hambantota districts were not surveyed in this wave due to the prevailing flood situation. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed. Twelve waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and January, March, May, July, September, November 2002 and January and March 2003. The latest wave was conducted in May 2003. This publication presents only the top-line results of the May 2003 survey. The results of these thirteen waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error. Copyright © Social Indicator May 2003 Peace Confidence Index Page 2 Top-Line Results KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS APRIL 2003-MAY 2003 • Representatives from the LTTE and the Muslim community met in Batticaloa recently to discuss ways to harmonise the interests of the Tamil and Muslim communities. LTTE sources say that the main issue under discussion was the paddy lands owned by Muslims in the East. (3 April 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • The Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) severely criticizes the role of the Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission (SLMM) for their 'open verdicts' on sea attacks by the LTTE. (3 April 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • The need for independent Muslim representation at the forthcoming peace talks has been stressed by Muslim leaders and endorsed by the President. The issue was raised when representatives of Muslim organisations from the North East called on President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. (4 April 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) • The LTTE accuses the United States of trying to undermine their peace bid with the government by excluding them from a key aid meeting in Washington. "Regrettably the US has undermined the joint effort (with the government) by isolating the LTTE and solely promoting the Sri Lankan government," the LTTE says an LTTE statement. (4 April 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The government indicates it would be seeking changes to the Ceasefire Agreement with the LTTE. Cabinet spokesman Prof. G.L. Peiris addressing a news conference after the Cabinet meeting says the government thought it would be good to make changes in some areas of the agreement. He maintains that while provisions covering the land areas were satisfactory there was uncertainty about the situation in the sea and adds that there was a necessity for a detailed document covering the sea area. He said there was a greater need for maintenance of rules of engagement and a further strengthening of the monitoring missions. (4 April 2003)-(Daily Mirror) • The World Bank's pledge of a US dollar 800 million loan for development. (4 April 2003)-(The Island) • Proposals to reconstruct the Chavakachcheri town in Thenmaradchchi division in Jaffna district were tabled today at a conference attended by the Regional Director General of the Planning and Operation unit of the Urban Development Authority (UDA) Mr. K. V. Dharmasiri. (4 April 2003)- (www.tamilnet.com) • PA MP Mangala Samaraweera, addressing a media briefing yesterday, said that no sooner than his party returns to power would Prof. G.L. Peiris be arrested for treason. (4 April 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) The United States Commander of the Pacific Air Force, General William J. Begert, is in Sri Lanka on a four-day visit. The General, who reportedly flew to Ratmalana in his own aircraft "Gulf Stream", is on a goodwill visit to several countries in the region. (4 April 2003)-(www.lankapage.com and http://www.army.lk/press_release/2003/04/03_1019.htm) • Navy Commander Vice Admiral Daya Sandagiri is convinced that a Tiger-owned tanker intercepted by the navy off Mullaitivu last month was sent down to the bottom of the sea by flooding the ship. "They must have opened the vessel's sea valves to take in sea water to flood the tanker," he says. (5 April 2003)-(The Island) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) refutes allegations of bias and says that sharply contradicting information from the government and LTTE had made it impossible to verify either the recent attack on a Chinese fishing trawler or the abortive assault on the state-operated Lanka Muditha. "The easiest party to blame is the SLMM," says Pekka Vihervas, SLMM legal adviser. (5 April 2003)-(The Island) • The Upcountry People's Front (UPF), a constituent party of the ruling United National Front (UNF) today morning picketed in front of the Fort railway station, in the heart of Colombo, supporting the present peace process and condemning the activities of anti-peace elements. (5 April 2003)- (www.tamilnet.com) • The LTTE is joining the Sri Lanka Human Rights Commission to protect human resources in the Northern and Eastern Provinces. The LTTE came to an agreement with the government on this matter during the fifth and sixth rounds of peace talks held recently in Japan. (5 April 2003)- (www.lankapage.com) • The A9 highway to Jaffna will be open for public traffic on Sundays, starting today. (6 April 2003)- (www.tamilnet.com) • The Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) has written to the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission accusing the LTTE of being responsible for the murder of one of its members at Soorawatha. (7 April 2003)- (www.colombopage.com) • The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) and the LTTE on April 3 agreed to hold a meeting with the local heads of Sri Lankan Government armed forces on April 21 at the no-man zone in the Muttur area, south of Trincomalee town, to sort out the problem that has arisen over the question of LTTE members crossing through the army controlled areas to LTTE controlled areas, sources say. (8 April 2003)- (www.tamilnet.com) Copyright © Social Indicator May 2003 Peace Confidence Index Page 3 Top-Line Results • The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) on April 10 reiterated its stand to the Prime Minister that the Sri Lanka Army should not be allowed to establish or relocate its camps and main bases in densely populated places in the Northeast province, TNA parliamentary group leader, Mr. R. Sampanthan, said in a press release. (10 April 2003)-(http://news.tamilnet.com/art.html?artid=8719&catid=13) • Minister of Transportation of Government of Sri Lanka, Minister Upali Piyasoma ceremonially inaugurated the Polannaruwa to Batticaloa train service Saturday morning easing transportation to and from Batticaloa town, sources in Batticaloa said. Recent completion to repairs of the final stretch of the track from Valaichenai to Batticaloa paved the way for the opening of the Polannaruwa to Batticaloa service. (12 April 2003)-(http://news.tamilnet.com/art.html?artid=8762&catid=13) • Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage opened an international conference on Sri Lanka on April 14 at the State Department by calling for international support for the "momentum of peace" in Sri Lanka. (15 April 2003)-(http://www.peaceinsrilanka.org/) • Police imposed a night curfew in the crisis ridden Muttur area last night as the tension escalated with three people being killed and at lease eight injured in a clash at Maliyathivu in Toppur, security sources said. They said that at about 5.