Walking the Wall
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REPORTAGE Walking the Wall PAUL SULLIVAN 100 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL IAEA IMAGEBANK Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 19, 2014 JAPAN OKYO—The concrete and steel tsunami wall at a nuclear plant south of Tokyo is nearly 50 Tfeet high and stretches a mile long. It is only one of a host of other earthquake and tsunami refits— waterproofing some of the most vital areas of the plant, backing up cooling systems, and improving venting for the facility in the event of hydrogen build up. On March 11, 2011, known as 3/11 in Japan, in the after- math of the nuclear disaster at Fukushima Daichi, thou- sands died in the earthquake and resulting tsunamis; countless others lost their lands and livelihoods. There were a number of casualties from stress, dislocation, and more, especially among the elderly. And worse yet, fu- ture health fallouts are still to be seen. It was unques- tionably a social and cultural calamity for a country that has had so many in its past, yet always seems to recover and come back stronger than ever. The tsunami wall represents one attempt by the Japanese to hold back the power of nature lurking be- neath and near its lands. It is but one example of Japan’s attempts to get back some of the energy and economic self-reliance that it lost that day. It is also a $1.5 billion investment by the power company that hopes to lessen the potentially existential threat of a permanent shut down of its nuclear facili- ties—an attempt to prove to the government and to the people of Japan that nuclear power is indeed safe. Post- Fukushima, this is no easy sell. Nuclear power accounted for some 30 percent of all electricity generation and 13 percent of all energy pro- duction in Japan in the year prior to 3/11. All nuclear power was shut down after the disaster of 3/11. Some nuclear plants were immediately shut down; others were gradually shut down over the next few months. By January 2012, the nuclear industry was a tiny propor- tion of all energy in Japan. There was even a time in 2012 when they were all shut down. A couple of nuclear generators were reopened later that year, but all nuclear generators were eventually closed by September 2013. Paul Sullivan is a professor of economics at the Na- tional Defense University and adjunct professor of security studies at Georgetown University. SUMMER 2014 101 Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 19, 2014 REPORTAGE The closure of these plants paved the way of 2009. Japan gets about 61 percent of for Japan to become an even bigger player its coal from Australia. It receives about in the energy commodities market. 31 percent of its coal from Indonesia. The rest of its coal comes from Canada, Russia, INSECURITY the United States, China, and a few other Japan’s measure of domestic self-reliance smaller suppliers. It gets about 30 percent in energy is now about 4 percent. It was of its LNG from the Middle East—nearly 17 percent prior to 3/11 and the eventual a third from Oman, Qatar, and the UAE. shutdown of the entire Japanese nuclear Australia is a source of 18 percent of its industry. That measure of self-reliance LNG. Russia supplies 10 percent, and this is the lowest of any may be growing given Russia’s invest- member of the Or- ments in new LNG facilities in Vladivo- one of the ganization for Eco- stok. Malaysia supplies about 17 percent. biggest nomic Cooperation Nigeria, a potentially very unstable state, and Development supplies about 5 percent. Indonesia and problems (OECD). It is the Brunei supply 7 percent each. And in late confronting world’s second larg- May, the first shipment of LNG from a the japanese est fossil fuel import- $19 billion Exxon Mobil development left er. It is the largest Papua New Guinea destined for Tokyo nuclear importer of liquefied Electric Power—a project that’s expected program is natural gas (LNG), to yield more than 9 trillion cubic feet of where to store with 37 percent of gas over 30 years. the market of in- Japan has diversified its sources of fos- spent fuel ternationally traded sil fuels. However, some of these sources that is not LNG. It is also the are potentially unstable or unreliable. world’s second larg- Furthermore, all these energy sources ar- processed. est importer of coal rive in Japan by sea—ports that need to and the third largest be working up to speed, especially after importer of oil. In short, it imports about earthquakes and tsunamis. 99 percent of its fossil fuels. As for nuclear fuel, Japan has no do- For some years after the oil shock of mestic uranium reserves. About a third of 1973, Japan was able to reduce its depen- its uranium imports come from Australia; dency on Middle East oil from its high of the rest comes from Canada, Kazakhstan, 92 percent in 1967 to 66 percent in 1988. and other smaller sources. It can enrich Now it imports over 83 percent of its oil the imported uranium in Japan, but often from the Middle East, and mostly from relies on others, particularly France and countries inside the Straits of Hormuz, in- Britain, for enrichment and reprocessing cluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. services even though it has a major, yet Another source of Japanese oil is Russia, sometimes problematic (and now closed) accounting for about 4 percent of im- reprocessing facility at Rakkasho in the ports, which has been supplying increas- north of Honshu Island. Tens of billions of ing amounts from its port at Kozmino dollars have been spent to develop repro- since the East Siberian Pacific Ocean Oil cessing in Japan, only to see the reprocess- Pipeline (ESPO) was completed at the end ing plants shut down. 102 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 19, 2014 JAPAN One of the biggest problems confront- WARINESS OR WANT ing the Japanese nuclear program, faced Japan’s nuclear industry development was also by many other nuclear programs boosted by sending subsidies to the locali- worldwide, is where to store spent fuel ties where the plants would be built. In that is not reprocessed. So far in Japan some places, some of the largest tax sources it has been mostly stored at the domes- are the nuclear plants and their companies. tic nuclear plants in spent fuel pools and There are also significant tax revenues from dry cask storage. These storage areas have nuclear waste storage sites, but other eco- been filling up fast. One insider suggested nomic drivers for some prefectures who were not dealing with the nuclear waste issue sought as sites for nuclear plants included in the industry was like “building a house government subsidies, jobs, and industrial without a toilet.” A considerable amount plants that make use of such massive sourc- of spent nuclear fuel still sits in dry casks es of energy nearby. These economic reasons and spent fuel pools in the damaged Fuku- are also driving some of the public desire to shima plants. Decommissioning nuclear restart the closed plants. plants requires dealing with the spent fuel Though polls show an increasing wari- on the site of the plants. ness towards nuclear power, with most The solution to this nuclear waste Japanese anxious to phase it out, the party problem has taken a back seat to making that is best-known for supporting such sure that the nuclear plants that are being plants, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Lib- stress-tested and evaluated for potential eral Democratic Party (LDP), was re-elect- restarts are fulfilling the regulations for ed, while the opposition parties that were safety and security imposed by the new against the restart of the nuclear plants Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) of lost miserably in many areas. Japan, now under the Ministry of Envi- The nuclear industry, the large elec- ronment, which replaced the Nuclear and tricity generation companies, METI, the Industrial Safety Authority (NISA), once former NISA, the LDP, and some pro- under the Ministry of Economy, Trade, nuclear academics and energy experts were and Industry (METI). This transfer of reg- all part of what some of those opposed to ulatory power is important. nuclear power in Japan call “The Nuclear METI is responsible for the develop- Village.” This is seen as a cozy group that ment of the nuclear industry. It has acted feeds off each other’s studies to develop as a proponent of the industry. Under the the nuclear industry, and now to restart same roof was NISA, which was responsible as many nuclear plants as possible. Others for regulating the nuclear industry. So at the see this group as the economic and energy same time METI was pushing down on the champions of the nation. accelerator for nuclear energy development, All electricity for Japan is made in Ja- it was also putting on the brakes. Soon after pan. There are no interconnections with 3/11, this all too cozy relationship between other countries. It is an island nation geo- the nuclear industry and its regulators came graphically, but also energy-wise. It is amaz- under considerable scrutiny. It was subse- ing that a country with so few indigenous quently decided that the Ministry of Envi- energy resources could become a world eco- ronment—a strong proponent of renewable nomic powerhouse just a few decades after energy—would be the new regulator.