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Emerging Risk Report 2018 Society & Security Steering the course A different approach to modelling marine risk 02 Lloyd’s of London Disclaimer About Cambridge Center for Risk Studies This report has been co-produced by Lloyd's and The Centre for Risk Studies is a multidisciplinary centre Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies for general of excellence for the study of the management of information purposes only. While care has been taken economic and societal risks. The Centre's focus is in the in gathering the data and preparing the report Lloyd's analysis, assessment, and mitigation of global does not make any representations or warranties as to vulnerabilities for the advancement of political, business its accuracy or completeness and expressly excludes to and individual decision makers. the maximum extent permitted by law all those that might otherwise be implied. The Centre provides frameworks for recognising, assessing and managing the impacts of systemic Lloyd's accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss threats. The research programme is concerned with or damage of any nature occasioned to any person as a catastrophes and how their impacts ripple across an result of acting or refraining from acting as a result of, or increasingly connected world with consequent effects in reliance on, any statement, fact, figure or expression on the international economy, financial markets, firms in of opinion or belief contained in this report. This report the financial sectors and global corporations. To test does not constitute advice of any kind. research outputs and guide new research agendas, the Centre engages with the business community, © Lloyd’s 2018 government policy makers, regulators and industry All rights reserved bodies. About Lloyd’s Lloyd's is the world's specialist insurance and Cambridge Center for Risk Studies Disclaimer reinsurance market. Under our globally trusted name, This report describes a hypothetical scenario developed we act as the market's custodian. Backed by diverse as a stress test for risk management purposes. It does global capital and excellent financial ratings, Lloyd's not constitute a prediction. The Cambridge Centre for works with a global network to grow the insured world – Risk Studies develops hypothetical scenarios for use in building the resilience of local communities and improving business resilience to shocks. These are strengthening global economic growth. contingency scenarios used for ‘what-if’ studies and do not constitute forecasts of what is likely to happen. With expertise earned over centuries, Lloyd's is the foundation of the insurance industry and the future of it. Led by expert underwriters and brokers who cover more than 200 territories, the Lloyd’s market develops the essential, complex and critical insurance needed to underwrite human progress. Steering the course A different approach to modelling marine risk 03 Key Contacts Marine Model Development Working Group Trevor Maynard − Jeremy Affolter, Actuary, Charles Taylor Head of Innovation − Alan Godfrey, Head of Exposure Management, Asta [email protected] − Simon Rafferty, Marine Business Actuary, Navigators − Gemma Smyth, Exposure Manager, Standard For general enquiries about this report and Lloyd’s Syndicate 1884 work on emerging risks, please contact − Sashika Subasinghe, Actuary, Talbot Underwriting [email protected] Lloyd’s project team Acknowledgements The following people were interviewed, took part in − Dr Trevor Maynard, Head of Innovation workshops or roundtables, or commented on earlier − Dr Keith Smith, Innovation team drafts of the report; we would like to thank them all for − Anna Bordon, Innovation team their contributions: − Linda Miller, Manager, Marketing and Communication − Flemmich Webb, Speech and Studies Cambridge Center for Risk Studies Further thanks go to the following for their expertise, − Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology Research & feedback and assistance with the study: Innovation − Dr Andy Skelton, Senior Risk Researcher Lloyd’s Market Association − Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of Advisory Board, Centre for Risk Studies, and Senior Vice President of − Mel Goddard, Market Liaison & Underwriting Director RMS Inc. − Neil Roberts, Manager, Marine and Aviation − Tamara Evan, Research Assistant and Coordinating Editor Lloyd’s − Viktorijia Kesaite, Research Assistant − Steven Champion, Executive, Exposure Management − Lee Coppack, Senior Advisor, Risk Communication − Matt Malin, Matt Malin, Market Reserving & Capital − Chris Murlowski, Manager, Marine & Energy, Class of Insurance industry workshops Business − Albert Küller, Research Manager, Class of Business − Mark Edmondson, Head of Marine, Chubb Global Market Marine Risk Specialist Advisors − Paul Dawson, Senior Underwriter, Energy, Ark Syndicate Management − Dr Dougal Goodman OBE FREng, Consultant − Peter Gower, Marine Liability Underwriter, Hiscox − John Waite, Director, Marine Investigations & Survey − Andrew Hedges, Marine Reinsurance Underwriter, Services Ltd Atrium − Professor R Ajit Shenoi, Director of Southampton, − Matthew Harrison, Group Head of Casualty Exposure Marine and Maritime Institute Management, Hiscox − Professor Ed Galea, University of Greenwich, Director − Peter Mcintosh, Senior Underwriter, Marine & Energy, of Fire Safety Engineering Group Ark Syndicate Management − Timothy Pembroke, Director of Marine, QBE European Operations − James Power, Global Practice Leader, Marine Liability, XL Catlin − Quentin Prebble, Director of Marine Practice, Ironshore − Michael Reynolds, Deputy Head of Marine, Chubb Global Market − Philip Sandle, Head of Marine Liability, Beazley − Colin Sprott, Chief Underwriting Officer, Navigators − Richard Tomlin, Marine Underwriter, Atrium Steering the course A different approach to modelling marine risk 04 About the authors Simon Ruffle is a Director of Research and Innovation Lee Coppack is a writer, editor and analyst on many at the Centre for Risk Studies and is responsible for the risk-related topics and a director of Insurance Research overall research framework of the Centre. He is & Publishing Ltd. She has worked closely with risk researching into innovative sourcing of business management associations, insurance businesses and economic data and is leading the cyber threat research modelling organisations. As a journalist, Lee founded track. He has a background in natural hazards and the and edited Catastrophe Risk Management and insurance industry. MicroRisk, and edited Global Risk Manager and Global Reinsurance. She is an honorary life member of the Dr Andrew Coburn is a Founder and Director of the Institute of Risk Management. Centre for Risk Studies' External Advisory Board, and Senior Vice President at Risk Management Solutions, Trevor Maynard PhD, MSc, FIA has degrees in pure the leading provider of catastrophe risk models to the maths and statistics and is a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. He is Head of Innovation at Lloyd’s including insurance industry. He is also a Fellow of Cambridge responsibility for horizon scanning and emerging risks. Judge Business School. Subjects covered in recent years include: the economic and social implications of a food system shock; the Dr Andrew Skelton’s research interests include risk effects of cyber-attacks on the US energy grid and an modelling (particularly combining data science with exploration of aggregation modelling methods for expert knowledge), the economics of catastrophe, liability risks. Bayesian statistics, and future risks from climate change and biodiversity loss. He is currently developing He is co-chairman of OASIS, an open modelling multi-threat risk analysis tools for insurers and platform for catastrophe models and sits on the Board corporates. Andrew has previously held academic of the Lighthill Risk Network. research posts in the Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) in the Department of Land Anna Bordon, MSc is an Executive in the Innovation Economy, University of Cambridge, where he also team at Lloyd’s where she supports horizon scanning completed his PhD research on how companies can and the delivery of the emerging risks reports. Subjects reduce greenhouse gas emissions from their global covered in the past year include: stranded assets (the supply chains. Andrew has an earlier background in transition to low carbon economy) and the application of design and holds an MPhil in Engineering for counterfactual risk analysis in the insurance industry. Sustainable Development from the University of Prior to joining Lloyd’s Anna was a Policy and Research Cambridge and a MEng from the University of Durham. Officer for the Principle for Responsible Investment Initiative where she worked on the integration of Tamara Evan is a Research Assistant for the Centre for environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in Risk Studies and oversees research into geopolitical, financial decisions. terror and cyber threats. Prior to joining the Risk Centre, she completed a first degree at the University of Bristol followed by a MA in historical studies from University College London. Her independent research thus far has focused on European social history and the dissemination of cultural trends related to periods of rapid urban growth and development. Viktorija Kesaite completed an MSc in Economics from the University of Nottingham, which was fully funded by the European Union. Prior to joining the Centre for Risk Studies, she worked as a language interpreter for several years; her most recent employment
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