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Global Energy Analyzer: Supercycle on the Horizon: Reap What You Sow

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Global Energy Analyzer: Supercycle on the Horizon: Reap What You Sow Europe Equity Research 03 March 2020 Global Energy Analyzer: Supercycle on the horizon Reap what you sow: $1tn capex hole + higher field declines = 2022 oil supply peak; asymmetric price risk European Oil & Gas Christyan F Malek AC (44-20) 7134-9188 [email protected] Bloomberg JPMA MALEK <GO> J.P. Morgan Securities plc James Thompson AC (44-20) 7134-5942 [email protected] Bloomberg JPMA THOMPSON <GO> J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ellis F Skinner (44-20) 7134-7684 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities plc Global Commodities The world is set to be short oil much sooner than it no longer needs oil. Natasha Kaneva With this report, we seek to challenge the commonly held view that the (1-212) 834-3175 industry will remain awash with oil for years to come. In an upward trend for [email protected] supply growth, we acknowledge demand is 'king', no better exemplified than JPMorgan Chase Bank NA through the systemic shock stemming from COVID-19. Meanwhile, our long- Shakil Begg held bearish thesis has largely played out as our case for circa $50/bbl MT (44-20) 7134-7748 Brent (published in our ‘Breakeven Championship’, 2018) based on the [email protected] marginal cost of new supply continues to weigh in today's oil market. J.P. Morgan Securities plc However, our analysis reveals the industry is not well-placed to meet global Sector Specialist (Sales & Trading) energy needs in the medium term as demand growth recovers in 2021+. We contact details: model 1% CAGR oil demand to 2030 led by emerging market growth Ian Mitchell - Sales and Trading powered by a demographic shift conducive to steadfast reliance on cheap (44-20) 7134-1356 energy through oil, given limited economically viable alternatives. This needs [email protected] to be met with new supply, yet the rate at which companies are moving away from investing in liquid hydrocarbon development has accelerated, exacerbated by extreme oil price volatility, climate change and ESG pressures. Alongside this report we publish Our analysis reveals that cumulative underspend in oil projects, on track to the ‘Supercycle Six’ - long-term reach $1tn by 2030, means the industry is at a point of no return with supply winners in a sustained upcycle. set to peak at 102mb/d in 2022. Moreover, continued pressure on oil prices is only going to accentuate a structural supply deficit that has already taken hold. OW Aramco, TOTAL, Rosneft, Lundin Petroleum, Subsea 7 and The darkest hour is just before the dawn. Our proprietary supply/demand Maersk Drilling model differentiates through bottom-up analysis of decline rates. We show rapid acceleration in non-OPEC/non-US declines owing to a global production mix shift to deepwater and unconventional barrels. Taken together with our updated forecast for US shale production and our revised outlook on near term demand, we forecast a sustained oil market deficit from 2022. While our LT Brent forecast of $60/bbl remains well underpinned, we show oil prices are asymmetrically skewed with the bull case suggesting oil could reach > $100/bbl by 2023 and bear case (sustained weak demand) implying $40/bbl. See page 62 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com This document is being provided for the exclusive use of [email protected]. {[{cHXdtoTfeLnrSuorvFFUtF-JGNRK7kbvAPgNkkrptxjnCy_Beenhg74pQ3urfKNgb2Qgf3W8xdA}]} Christyan F Malek Europe Equity Research (44-20) 7134-9188 03 March 2020 [email protected] James Thompson (44-20) 7134-5942 [email protected] This report also includes contribution from the following Table of Contents teams: Oil super-cycle in pictures.......................................................................................4 EMEA Oil & Gas Executive Summary – Sowing the seeds for the next Matthew Lofting, CFA AC (44-20) 7134-6301 supercycle: ‘oil aversion’ led by price volatility, ESG and [email protected] climate change..........................................................................6 J.P. Morgan Securities plc …but developing economies to help drive c1mb/d growth from 2021.......................7 Alex Comer …but a shifting production mix will drive observed decline rates higher to the end of (44-20) 7134-5945 [email protected] the decade.............................................................................................................10 J.P. Morgan Securities plc JPM Supply/Demand Summary: Sustained deficit from 2022 Jocelyn A Dsouza, CFA = Upside to Brent towards c$80/bbl......................................13 (91-22) 6157-3336 [email protected] 2. OPEC capacity ‘overhang’: Saudi to remain on ‘mute’ as inventory reduction > J.P. Morgan India Private Limited market share..........................................................................................................16 Angelina Glazova 3. ‘Stranded’ assets: Global oil reserves a ‘mirage’ as lower carbon intensity (7-495) 967-7074 (pressured by climate change) and economic commerciality = 50% haircut to c1.7tn [email protected] ‘proven’ barrels.....................................................................................................17 J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC Supercycle on the horizon.....................................................19 US Oil & Gas Arun Jayaram Super-cycle part 1: Non-OPEC decline rates to accelerate (1-212) 622-8541 as production mix shifts to deeper water and tighter rock.20 [email protected] Establishing regional and geological decline rates via the corporates – fundamental J.P. Morgan Securities LLC JPM analysis leverages reported production data across our global equities coverage Phil Gresh, CFA universe; 42% of non-OPEC production in 2018....................................................22 (1-212) 622-4861 [email protected] Key drivers of corporate decline trajectories: field size, field J.P. Morgan Securities LLC consolidation/diversification..................................................................................23 John M Royall, CFA Geology / portfolio mix the key determinant of regional decline rates.....................25 (1-212) 622-6406 JPM forecast: Production shift toward deepwater and shale to drive increased decline [email protected] rates from 2020+...................................................................................................26 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Super cycle II: “Missing Trillion” – underinvestment in Sachin Sharma black oil sees supply peak in 2022 .......................................28 (1-212) 622-1304 [email protected] Tackling the Supply / Demand Bear Debates.......................35 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Global Oil & Gas 1. US Shale: Key driver of global crude growth but the Rodolfo Angele, CFA ‘magic dust’ is running out, while lower oil = lower volumes (55-11) 4950-3888 .................................................................................................36 [email protected] Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. US Shale (cont.) – Growth runway remains healthy but shareholder pressure on capital framework + productivity slowdown means 2020-25 growth quantum less Scott L Darling than in previous decade .........................................................................................37 (852) 2800 8578 [email protected] US Shale (cont.) – A tighter capital frame on shale economics means greater J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) asymmetry to oil prices; downside risk to volume growth at spot WTI as a larger Limited proportion of Permian growth diminishes ..............................................................38 Ricardo Rezende, CFA 2: OPEC capacity ‘overhang’: Saudi on ‘mute’ as inventory (44-20) 7742-6896 [email protected] reduction > market share.......................................................39 J.P. Morgan Securities plc OPEC (cont.) – As fiscal breakevens are expected to remain elevated in 2020, we expect OPEC to maintain its policy of prioritizing revenue over market share, seeking to put a ‘floor’ on Brent of c$60/bbl. .........................................................40 2 This document is being provided for the exclusive use of [email protected]. {[{cHXdtoTfeLnrSuorvFFUtF-JGNRK7kbvAPgNkkrptxjnCy_Beenhg74pQ3urfKNgb2Qgf3W8xdA}]} Christyan F Malek Europe Equity Research (44-20) 7134-9188 03 March 2020 [email protected] James Thompson (44-20) 7134-5942 [email protected] OPEC (cont.) – 2021/22 the ‘Tipping Point’: Saudi fiscal breakeven ~$70/bbl and emerging oil market deficit = OPEC growth to resume...........................................41 3: ‘Stranded’ assets: Global oil reserves a ‘mirage’ of oil as carbon intensity and economic commerciality = 50% haircut to global liquids reserves of 1.7tn barrels............................42 Reserves (cont.) – OPEC members have added over 800bn bbls of reserves since 1980 (i.e. a 190% increase), with Venezuela and Saudi Arabia accounting for c50% of total OPEC reserves ..........................................................................................43
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