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Water Nationalism UNIVERSITÉ DE GENÈVE INSTITUT UNIVERSITAIRE DE HAUTES ÉTUDES INTERNATIONALES WATER NATIONALISM: AN EXPLANATION OF THE PAST AND PRESENT CONFLICTS IN CENTRAL ASIA, THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT? THÉSE présentée à l’Université de Genève pour l’obtention du grade de Docteur en relations internationales (histoire et politique internationales) par Jeremy ALLOUCHE (Royaume-Uni) Thèse N ° 699 Genève 2005 WATER NATIONALISM: AN EXPLANATION OF THE PAST AND PRESENT CONFLICTS IN CENTRAL ASIA, THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT? © Copyright 2005 by Jeremy Allouche UNIVERSITÉ DE GENÈVE INSTITUT UNIVERSITAIRE DE HAUTES ÉTUDES INTERNATIONALES WATER NATIONALISM: AN EXPLANATION OF THE PAST AND PRESENT CONFLICTS IN CENTRAL ASIA, THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT? THÉSE présentée à l’Université de Genève pour l’obtention du grade de Docteur en relations internationales (histoire et politique internationales) par Jeremy ALLOUCHE (Royaume-Uni) Thèse N ° 699 Genève 2005 Jeremy ALLOUCHE Sur le préavis de M. Mohammad-Reza DJALILI, Professeur associé, de M. Keith KRAUSE, Professeur à l'Institut, de Mme Laurence BOISSON DE CHAZOURNES, Professeur, faculté de droit, Université de Genève et de M. Ken CONCA, Associate Professor of Government and Politics, Director, Harrison Program on the Future Global Agenda, University of Maryland, USA, le Directeur de l'Institut universitaire de hautes études internationales, agissant au nom de la Commission mixte de l'Université et de l'Institut, composée des Doyens des Facultés de droit, des lettres, et des sciences économiques et sociales, autorise l'impression de la présente thèse sans entendre par là exprimer d'opinion sur les propositions qui y sont énoncées. Genève, le 19 août 2005 pour la Commission mixte: Professeur Philippe Burrin Directeur Thèse N° 699 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research has been made possible with the help of many people. I would like to dedicate this thesis to my wife, my family, and to Mariano Garcia-Rubio. I would like also to express my gratitude to Professor Mohammad-Reza Djalili, who has always offered his help and who encouraged me in doing this thesis. WATER NATIONALISM: An explanation of the past and present conflicts in Central Asia, the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent? Jeremy Allouche 1 Table of Content PREFACE .............................................................................................................................................. 8 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................. 9 I. DEFINITIONS................................................................................................................................... 10 II. THE DIFFERENT HYPOTHESES ....................................................................................................... 16 III. METHODOLOGICAL DIFFICULTIES AND SOURCES........................................................................ 19 IV. CHOICE OF THE CASE STUDIES .................................................................................................... 22 V. CONTRIBUTION TO INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS LITERATURE.................................................... 23 VI. ORIGINALITY OF THE RESEARCH................................................................................................. 27 VII. STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS........................................................................................................ 28 PART ONE: THE CAUSES OF TRANSBOUNDARY WATER CONFLICTS........................... 30 CHAPTER ONE: HYDROPOLITICS AND WATER SCARCITY.............................................. 39 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................. 39 1.1. HYDROPOLITICS. ........................................................................................................................ 40 1.1.1. Water war theory ................................................................................................................ 40 1.1.2. Limits of the water war theory............................................................................................ 44 1.1.3. No water war but lack of co-operation............................................................................... 51 1.2. THE WHY DEBATE? SCARCITY AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN EXPLAINING WATER RELATED CONFLICTS......................................................................................................................................... 59 1.2.1. Uncertainties in national security studies and environmental determinism....................... 60 1.2.2. Water scarcity as the sacrosanct explanation of water conflicts........................................ 63 1.2.3. Major assumptions behind the hydropolitics school .......................................................... 67 1.2.3.1. Number of conflicts..................................................................................................... 68 1.2.3.2. Increasing Water use ...................................................................................................69 1.3. WATER SCARCITY AND ITS LIMITS. ............................................................................................ 76 1.3.1. Concept and definition: Water stress / Water scarcity ....................................................... 76 1.3.2. Facts and figures ................................................................................................................ 78 1.3.3. Behind these facts and figures ............................................................................................ 82 1.3.4. Water scarcity and conflict................................................................................................. 84 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................... 89 CHAPTER TWO: WATER NATIONALISM – A NEGLECTED FACTOR IN EXPLAINING TRANSBOUNDARY WATER CONFLICTS.................................................................................. 91 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................. 91 2.1. THE TERRITORIALISATION OF WATER ........................................................................................ 94 2.1.1. The delimitation of territory: from frontiers to borders ..................................................... 96 2.1.2. The greater need for more territoriality and unilateralism: more political units. ............. 99 2.2. CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL UNDERPINNING: STATE BUILDING AND NATION MAKING IN EXPLAINING CONFLICTS. ................................................................................................................. 105 2.2.1. Definitions ........................................................................................................................ 105 2.2.1.1. Nation making. .......................................................................................................... 105 2.2.1.2. State building............................................................................................................. 107 2.2.1.3. Nation state................................................................................................................ 108 2.2.2 State building and nation making as possible explanations of international conflicts...... 109 2.2.2.1. Nationalism and nation making as a cause of conflict. ............................................. 109 2.2.2.2. State building as a cause of conflict. ......................................................................... 112 2 2.3. WATER NATIONALISM.............................................................................................................. 113 2.3.1. State building.................................................................................................................... 114 2.3.1.1. Making the water issue a national problem............................................................... 116 2.3.1.2. Centralization ............................................................................................................ 117 2.3.1.3. Ownership ................................................................................................................. 119 2.3.2. Nation making................................................................................................................... 123 2.3.2.1. Sovereignty over water resources.............................................................................. 123 2.3.2.2. Making the state territory national ............................................................................ 134 PART TWO: CASE STUDIES ........................................................................................................ 141 CHAPTER THREE: THE CAUSES OF WATER-RELATED CONFLICTS IN THE ARAL SEA BASIN........................................................................................................................................ 142 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................142 3.1. THE ARAL SEA BASIN : ITS MAIN HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS.................................... 145 3.1.1. Climate, topography and geology in Central Asia ..........................................................
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