Newport City Council/ Newport Unlimited

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT APPENDICES – VOL 2 / JULY 2010

PREPARED BY PREPARED FOR Colliers International Newport City Council/Newport Unlimited

Colliers International Newport City Council/Newport Unlimited July 2010 Retail Study and Capacity Assessment

APPENDICES (Volume 2)

Appendix 1: The Household Telephone Survey

(A) Survey Methodology and Sampling (B) Survey Questionnaire

Appendix 2: Population Projections

Appendix 3: Experian Data (Technical Assumptions)

(A) Definition of Convenience and Comparison Goods (Extract) (B) Convenience and Comparison Goods Expenditure Per Head (C) Expenditure Forecasts (Extract) (D) Forecast of Special Forms of Trading (Extract) (E) Changing Store Productivities (Extract)

Appendix 4: Retail Floorspace Data and Benchmark Turnover

(A) Methodology: Estimating Retail Floorspace of City and District Centres (B) City Centre and District Centres: Existing Retail Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers (C) Out of Centre Retail Warehouses: Existing Retail Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers (D) Out of Centre Superstores: Existing Retail Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers (E) Retail Commitments in Newport City: Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers

Appendix 5: Retail Floorspace Capacity Assessment

(A) Methodology for Assessing Retail Floorspace Capacity (B) The Need for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace: Scenario 1 (Constant Market Shares Approach) (C) The Need for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace: Scenario 2 (Adjusted Market Shares Approach) (D) The Need for Additional Convenience Goods Floorspace

Appendix 6: Maps of City Centre and District Centres

This Report has been prepared by:

Colliers International, Marylebone Lane London W1U 1HL www.colliers.com

Contact: Dr Richard Doidge Tel: +44 (0)20 7344 6872

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 1

The Household Telephone Survey

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 1A

Survey Methodology and Sampling

BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang, Lancs PR3 1YB Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336 E-mail: [email protected] Registered No: 7215612

NEWPORT HOUSEHOLD SHOPPING SURVEY

APRIL/MAY 2010

Presented to: Colliers International 9 Marylebone Lane London W1U 1HL

CONTENTS

1. Background & Methodology 2. Sample Breakdown 3. Statement of Reliability 4. Tabulations by Zone

BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD Registered No: 7215612 1. BACKGROUND & METHODOLOGY

The client, Colliers International, wished to conduct a telephone shopping survey in Newport and the surrounding areas. This was to establish the following: -

• Where respondents go for their general non-food shopping such as clothing, footwear and household goods • How frequently they visit their main and secondary centres • How their expenditure on such goods is divided between main and secondary centres • Why they choose their main centres, how they travel and the length of their journey from home • Similar information regarding bulky goods shopping • Similar information regarding food & grocery shopping • Information on linked trips connected to food & grocery shopping • Usage of leisure facilities in the area

A total of 1400 interviews were targeted, in fourteen different zones, each zone defined by electoral ward. Interviews were conducted over a period of three weeks, between April 28th and May 19th 2010.

In order to provide meaningful and reliable data in each of the zones 100 interviews were allocated to each of the zones. The results were then weighted, at the analysis stage, to take account of the differing populations in each zone and their importance to the overall survey area.

BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD Registered No: 7215612 2. NEWPORT SAMPLE BREAKDOWN

ZONE Population % Achieved Weighted Weight Sample Sample 1 35,373 6.8% 100 96 0.957 2 8,270 1.6% 100 22 0.224 3 39,099 7.6% 100 106 1.058 4 17,680 3.4% 100 48 0.478 5 19,273 3.7% 100 52 0.522 6 5,848 1.1% 100 16 0.158 7 15,965 3.1% 100 43 0.432 8 69,739 13.5% 106 189 1.780 9 53,180 10.3% 94 144 1.531 10 68,034 13.2% 100 184 1.841 11 56,445 10.9% 100 153 1.528 12 87,686 16.9% 100 237 2.373 13 5,473 1.1% 100 15 0.148 14 35,267 6.8% 100 95 0.954 TOTAL 517,332 100.0% 1,400 1,400 1.000

The sample used for making telephone calls was obtained by Beacon Research from DBS Data, who supplied names, addresses and telephone numbers, as defined by electoral ward.

Full details of the samples achieved in each zone and the weightings subsequently applied within the analysis, are shown in the preceding table.

The following table summarises the details of calls made and interview outcome.

Quantity % Initial Sample 2,800 100.0 Completed interviews 1,400 50.0 Refusals 193 6.9 Wrong numbers / Unobtainable / Answer phone 142 5.1 No reply (after 4 calls) 571 20.4 Not used 494 17.6

BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD Registered No: 7215612 3. STATEMENT OF RELIABILITY

Assessment of the standard error:

1. The Newport Household Shopping Survey has been undertaken as a series of individual sample surveys, over a number a defined zones. 2. The results are subject to the following sampling error, of which there follows an analysis. 3. The following analysis indicates the methodology used to calculate the standard error, with the standard 95% probability of being correct. The formulae for these calculations are as follows:

SE% = p%*q% n

Where: p%  sample value recorded q% = 100% - p% n = sample size And where: ±1.96 x (SE %) = 95% probability that the correct answer lies in the range calculated.

4. Using the above formulae, we can predict the variation between the sample results and the ‘true’ values from our knowledge of the size of sample on which the results are based and the number of times that a particular answer is given. The table below illustrates the predicted ranges for the total sample and percentage results at the 95% confidence level.

Approximate sampling tolerances applicable to percentages at or near these levels.

Size of sample on which 10% or 90% 20% or 80% 30% or 70% 40% or 60% 50% survey result is based 1,400 interviews 1.57 2.10 2.40 2.57 2.62

For example, with a sample of 1400, where 30% give a particular answer, the chances are 19 in 20 that the ‘true’ value (which would have been obtained if the whole population had been interviewed) will fall within the range of ±2.40 percentage points from the sample results.

BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD Registered No: 7215612

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 1B

Survey Questionnaire

Job No: GW/10/462 AREA

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL BEACON RESEARCH The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang, Lancs PR3 1YB Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336

NEWPORT RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESMENT HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY, ON BEHALF OF COLLIERS CRE (April 2010)

Name:

Address:

Postcode:

C1. Age: 16-24 1 Supervisor/Manager/Self Employed 25-34 2 Size of company 35-44 3 No. of employees 45-54 4 55-64 5 If Retired 65 + 6 Company pension–ask previous occupation State pension only – code 5 below C2. Sex: Male 1 Female 2 If Unemployed Less than 2 months – ask about previous C3. What is the occupation of the chief occupation wage earner in your household? Over 2 months – code 6 below Full/Part time employed 1 Retired 2 Now Assess Social Grade Unemployed 3 AB 1 C1 2 Occupation C2 3 D 4 Rank/Status E1 (Retired) 5 E2 (Unemployed) 6 No. of Employees Refused 7

Qualifications

Interviewer Signature: Date:

1 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462

Good morning/afternoon/evening, my name is ………………………………………..……

We are doing some research, on behalf of Newport City Council, to improve shopping facilities in this area and I’d like to ask you a few questions.

QUALIFIER QUESTIONS: -

1). Are you/ May I speak to the person responsible for the majority of your household shopping?

YES 1 (Continue) NO 2 (CLOSE)

2). Are you able to tell me in which store or centre you do the majority of your food or grocery shopping?

YES 1 (Go to questionnaire) NO 2 (CLOSE)

As we need to speak to people across a number of areas, could you please tell me your full postcode?

WRITE IN POST CODE HERE

Refer to quota and check that respondent is eligible for interview – if not, thank and close.

2 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462

Q1a. Can I ask you first of all, excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, at which Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park do you do most of your shopping for non-food goods such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery?

Q1b. And how often do you visit...... Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park, for this type of non-food shopping?

Q1c. And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what percentage or proportion of your total expenditure on non-food shopping such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in ...... Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park?

Q2a. Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what is your second most visited Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park for non-food shopping such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery? (SINGLE CODE)

Q2b. And how often do you visit...... Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park for this type of non-food shopping?

Q2c. And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what percentage or proportion of your total expenditure on non-food shopping such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in ...... Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park?(Write In %)

RECORD ANSWERS BELOW– CHECK PERCENTAGES ADD TO 100% AT Q1c/Q2c TOWN / CENTRE Q1 Q2

A CODE FROM LIST ‘A’ Local Shops (See instructions) 74 74 Other (Write In) Varies / No particular centre 75 75 None / Don’t shop for these goods at all 76 76 None / Don’t shop / Disabled 77 77 None / Don’t shop for these goods / Internet or mail order only 78 78 No Second Centre 79 DK / Can’t remember 80 80 B FREQUENCY OF SHOPPING Five to seven days a week 1 1 Three or four days a week 2 2 Twice a week 3 3 Once a week 4 4 2-3 times a month 5 5 Once a month 6 6 Once every 2-3 months 7 7 Once every 4-6 months 8 8 Less often 9 9 Varies (Probe) 10 10 DK / Can’t remember (Probe) 11 11 C % In Location (Write in) % %

3 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462

Q3a. You said that ………………….. is the Town / City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park where you do most of your clothing & footwear shopping. What is your main reason for choosing that centre? (Single Code)

Close to home/convenient 1 Good/Cheap Public Transport 7 Close to work 2 Ease of parking 8 Good choice of shops/range of goods stores 3 Free / cheap parking 9 Good range of major stores 4 Good quality goods/products 10 Pedestrianised streets/Attractive environment 5 Part of joint trip to other facility/centre 11 Good prices/Good value for money 6 Other (Write In)

Q3b. How do you normally travel to and from this Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park? (If more than one mode of transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)

Car (Driver) 1 Walk 6 Car (Passenger) 2 Cycle 7 Bus 3 Motor Cycle 8 Train 4 Taxi 9 Park & Ride 5 Other 10

Q3c. Where does your journey usually start from?

Home 1 (Go to Q3d) Work 2 (Go to Q4) Other (write in) (Go to Q4)

ASK ALL SAYING ‘HOME’ AT Q3c - OTHERS GO TO Q4

Q3d. On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park from home?

5 minutes or less 1 21 – 25 minutes 5 6 – 10minutes 2 26-30 minutes 6 11-15 minutes 3 Over 30minutes 7 16-20 minutes 4

ASK ALL

Q4. At which Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park do you normally undertake most of your Christmas or other special occasion non-food shopping?

CODE FROM LIST ‘A’ Local shops (see instructions) 74 Other (Write In)

Varies / No particular centre 75 None / Don’t shop for these goods at all 76 None / Don’t shop / Disabled 77 None / Don’t shop / Internet or mail order only 78 No second centre DK / Can’t remember 80

4 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462

Q5a. Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, at which Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park do you do most of your shopping for bulky non-food goods such as DIY, large electrical goods, furniture and carpets (SINGLE CODE)

Q5b. And how often do you visit ………. Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park, for your main bulky goods shopping?

Q5c. And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what percentage or proportion of your total expenditure on bulky goods shopping would you say that you do, in ...... Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park?

Q6a. Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, which is your second most visited Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park for bulky goods shopping? (SINGLE CODE)

Q6b. And how often do you visit ………. Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park for your main bulky goods shopping?

Q6c. And Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what percentage or proportion of your total expenditure on bulky goods shopping would you say that you do in ...... Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park?

RECORD ANSWERS BELOW– CHECK PERCENTAGES ADD TO 100% AT Q5c / Q6c

TOWN / CENTRE Q5 Q6

A CODE FROM LIST ‘A’ Local Shops (See instructions) 74 74 Other (Write In)

Varies / No particular centre 75 75 None / Don’t shop for these goods at all 76 76 None / Don’t shop / Disabled 77 77 None / Don’t shop for these goods / Internet or mail order only 78 78 No Second Centre 79 DK / Can’t remember 80 80 B FREQUENCY OF SHOPPING Five to seven days a week 1 1 Three or four days a week 2 2 Twice a week 3 3 Once a week 4 4 2-3 times a month 5 5 Once a month 6 6 Once every 2-3 months 7 7 Once every 4-6 months 8 8 Less often 9 9 Varies (Probe) 10 10 DK / Can’t remember (Probe) 11 11 C % In Location (Write in) % %

5 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462

Q7a. You said that ………………….. is your Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park where you do most of your bulky goods non food shopping. What is your main reason for choosing that centre? (Single Code)

Q7b. How do you normally travel to and from this Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park? (If more than one mode of transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)

Car (Driver) 1 Walk 6 Car (Passenger) 2 Cycle 7 Bus 3 Motor Cycle 8 Train 4 Taxi 9 Park& Ride 5 Other 10

Q7c. Where does your journey usually start from?

Home 1 (Go to Q7d) Work 2 (Go to Q8) Other (write in) (Go to Q8)

ASK ALL SAYING ‘HOME’ AT Q7c - OTHERS GO TO Q8

Q7d. On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park from home?

5 minutes or less 1 21 – 25 minutes 5 6 – 10minutes 2 26-30 minutes 6 11-15 minutes 3 Over 30minutes 7 16-20 minutes 4

6 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462

Q8a. At which store and location do you usually do most or all of your food and grocery shopping? (Store and location code needed from separate list – SINGLE CODE)

Q8b. And, when during the week would you normally shop at your main food store?

Q9a. At which store and location do you usually do your remaining food and grocery shopping? (Store and Centre needed)

RECORD ANSWERS BELOW

A STORE / CENTRE Q8 Q9 CODE FROM LIST ‘B’ Local shops / PO (See instructions) 111 111 Other (Write In)

Varies / No particular store (PROBE) 112 112 None / Don’t shop for these goods N/A N/A None / Don’t shop / Disabled N/A N/A Internet or mail order only (Write name of store in) 113 113 Ÿ No second Store 114 DK / Cant remember / No reply N/A N/A B WHEN SHOP Weekdays (Mon- Fri) Daytime 1 1 Weekdays (Mon – Fri) Evening 2 2 Saturday 3 3 Sunday 4 4 Varies / No particular time 5 5

Q10a. On average how much do you and your household spend, in total, on food and groceries each week? (INCLUDE MAIN & TOP-UP SHOPPING)

Q10b. And of this amount, how much is spent at the Store where you normally do your main food and grocery shopping?

£ p Q10a. Total weekly household expenditure on food & groceries

Q10b. Main store weekly expenditure on food & groceries

Q10c. Top-up weekly expenditure on food & groceries [Note: Q10c is calculated as Q10a – Q10b]

7 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462

Q11a. You said that...... is your main store for food/grocery shopping. How often do you visit that store for food and grocery shopping?

Every day 1 Three or four times a week 2 Twice a week 3 Once a week 4 Two or three times a month 5 Once a month 6 Once every two or three months 7 Less often 8

Q11b. What is the main reason why you and your household choose to shop at the store where you do your main food / grocery shopping? (SINGLE CODE)

Close to home / convenient 1 Wide choice of goods / products 6 Close to work 2 Close to other shops 7 Ease of parking 3 Good prices/value for money 8 Free / cheap parking 4 Good quality goods / products 9 Good / cheap public transport 5 Other (Write in)

Q11c. How do you normally travel to / from this store? (If more than one mode of transport used, code transport used for longest part of journey)

Car (Driver) 1 Walk 6 Car (Passenger) 2 Cycle 7 Bus 3 Motor Cycle 8 Train 4 Taxi 9 Park & Ride 5 Other 10

Q11d. Where does your journey usually start from?

Home 1 (Go to Q11e) Work 2 (Go to Q12a) Other (write in) (Go to Q12a)

ASK ALL SAYING ‘HOME’ AT Q7c - OTHERS GO TO Q12a

Q11e. On average, how long does it take you to travel to this Store from home?

5 minutes or less 1 21 – 25 minutes 5 6 – 10minutes 2 26-30 minutes 6 11 – 15 minutes 3 Over 30 minutes 7 16 – 20minutes 4

8 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462

ASK ALL

Q12a. When you do your main food and grocery shopping at………do you or your household usually visit any other shops/service outlets in the same area as part of that trip?

Yes 1 (Go to Q12b) No 2 (Go to Q12e)

Q12b-Q12d ONLY ASK IF Q12a=1

Q12b. Which town/centre is this? (Write In)

Q12c. And do you drive to the other shops/service outlets, or walk or use another form of transport?

Drive 1 Taxi 4 Walk 2 Other Form of Transport 5 Bus 3

Q12d. And what other shops/services do you normally visit? (MULTI-CODE)

Financial outlets (eg Banks, Building Societies) 1 Professional Services (eg Solicitors, Accountants) 2 Post Office 3 Cafe/Restaurant/Pub/Take-Away 4 Specialist food shops (eg Baker, Greengrocer, Butcher) 5 Chemist 6 Newsagents/Confectioners/Tobacconists 7 Fashion Shops (eg for clothing, footwear etc) 8 Charity Shops 9 Department/Variety Store 10 Other type of shop (WRITE IN)

ASK ALL

Q12e. Would better shopping facilities in Newport City Centre make you shop there more often or not?

Yes – Much more often 1 Yes – A little more often 2 No 3

Q12f. Which additional retail facilities, if any, would you like to see in Newport City Centre? (Write in)

______

COMPLETE CLASSIFICATION - THANK RESPONDENT

9 BEACON RESEARCH

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 2

Population Projections

Appendix 2: Adjustment of Experian Population Projections to Reflect Planned House Building Programme within Newport City (Zones 1 to 7 inclusive)

METHODOLOGY

The purpose of the exercise is to adjust the Experian population projections to take account of where new housing is likely to be built. This not only means factoring where housing land is available, but also allowing for declining average household size in existing dwellings.

An initial control exercise is undertaken for the whole of Newport City (Zones 1-7) to establish principles. This involves: a) Taking the 2009 population and dividing by the Welsh Assembly Government's (WAG) average household size assumption to produce an implied number of households. b) Adding prospective annual house building to the 2009 base number of households. This assumes 450 each for 2009 and 2010, and then the LDP Preferred Strategy rate of 640 per year thereafter to 2026. c) The house building is added to the base households to produce derived households for each design year. d) The derived household number is then multiplied by the WAG average household size to produce a derived population. e) Two comparisons are made for validation purposes: households and population. These vary proportionately to each other. The maximum variation is for 2026, where a population 537 higher than the Experian figure is derived. At just 0.3 of one percent this is considered to be insignificant. The derived projection also brings the population nearer to the figure in the LDP Preferred Strategy of 156,000 for 2026.

The next stage is to undertake this exercise for each of Zones 1-7, but on the basis of actual housing sites, not a borough-wide house building forecast.

The LDP Preferred Strategy assumes that infill and windfall sites will provide 1,275 dwellings over the 15 years. These have been apportioned to the zones for the period 2011-26 in proportion to their base population. None have been assumed for 2009 and 2010 as any completions for these years would be likely to be within the system already.

Since the identified land supply and the infill and windfall allowances exceeds the forecast requirements, each zone's build rate is factored down by the same proportion to constrain the total to the required 10,500 for the 17 years.

For each zone, the methodology is the same as for the control; the base population is converted to households, build rates are added for each period and then converted to population using the same WAG average household size for each zone. SUMMARY

2009 2010 2016 2021 2026 Zone 1 West Central, Bettws and Malpas Experian Population 35567 35782 36818 38106 39053 Derived Population 35567 35663 35949 36121 36263

Derived Households 15464 15573 16121 16494 16867

Zone 2 Caerleon Experian Population 8282 8321 8345 8470 8542 Derived Population 8282 8303 8365 8568 8758

Derived Households 3601 3626 3751 3912 4073

Zone 3 Maindee, St Julians, Ringland Experian Population 39538 39597 40888 42288 43499 Derived Population 39538 39521 39238 39294 39321

Derived Households 17190 17258 17595 17942 18289

Zone 4 Newport East - Lliswerry, Llanwern, Langstone Experian Population 17472 17600 18207 18775 19268 Derived Population 17472 17711 20316 23269 26101

Derived Households 7597 7734 9110 10625 12140

Zone 5 Pillgwenlly and Newport South West Experian Population 19166 19188 19585 20259 20840 Derived Population 19166 19366 20515 21616 22663

Derived Households 8333 8457 9200 9870 10541

Zone 6 Marshfield Experian Population 5567 5532 5729 5958 6104 Derived Population 5567 5561 5502 5435 5366

Derived Households 2420 2428 2467 2482 2496

Zone 7 Rogerstone/Bassaleg Experian Population 15812 15849 16208 16626 16914 Derived Population 15812 15807 15703 16004 16285

Derived Households 6875 6903 7042 7308 7574

Total Zones 1-7 Experian Population 141404 141869 145780 150482 154220 Derived Population 141404 141932 145588 150306 154757

Derived Households 61480 61979 65286 68633 71980

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 3

Experian Data (Technical Assumptions)

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 3A

Definition of Convenience and Comparison Goods (Extract)

Appendix 2: estimating consumer spending on retail goods and leisure

Sources

Total retail sales spending is derived from the ONS’ (Office for National Statistics) Retail Sales Business Monitor SDM28 (latest issue May 2009). We use the chained volume measure shown in Table 1.

In order to obtain a split between convenience and comparison goods, see below for definitions, estimates of consumer spending on retail items are taken from the ONS’ publication Consumer Trends (latest issue June 2009). This breaks total household spending down according to the internationally recognised COICOPS categories (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose). This is consistent with the definitions used in the ONS’ National Accounts (Blue Book) and therefore includes spending in the UK by foreigners. Leisure spending is aggregated from COICOPS categories as shown below.

The Consumer Trends data are based on surveys of consumers, while the Retail Sales Business Monitor figures are based on surveys of shops and businesses. A modest adjustment is required to bring the two into line.

Aggregations

Retail Planner contains a number of special aggregations of retail goods and services:

1. Convenience goods – low-cost, everyday items that consumers are unlikely to travel far to purchase. Defined as food and non-alcoholic drinks, tobacco, alcohol, newspapers and 90% of non-durable household goods.4 2. Comparison goods – all other retail goods. Bulky goods – defined as: • DIY goods • Furniture and floor coverings. • Major household appliances whether electric or not. • Audio-visual equipment • Remaining 10% of non-durable household goods. Non-bulky goods – all other comparison goods 3. Leisure Recreational and sporting services (COICOP 9.4.1) Cultural services (COICOP 9.4.2) Games of chance (COICOP 9.4.3) Restaurants, cafes etc (COICOP 11.1.1) Accommodation services (COICOP 11.2) Hairdressing salons & personal grooming (COICOP 12.1.1)

4 Non-durable household goods comprise cleaning materials, kitchen disposables, household hardware and appliances, kitchen gloves, cloths etc and pins, needles, tape measures and nuts and bolts. We have assumed, based on EFS data, that 10% of non-durable household goods are DIY-type goods and, therefore, are properly classified as comparison goods while the remaining 90% have the characteristics of convenience goods.

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 3B

Convenience and Comparison Goods Expenditure Per Head

Appendix 3B Consumer Retail Expenditure Per Head (for 2008 at 2008 prices)

Convenience Goods

Average Spend Per Head Index Zone (£) UK = 100

1 1,766 94 2 1,911 102 3 1,712 91 4 1,846 98 5 1,677 89 6 2,016 107 Newport City 7 1,911 102

8 1,783 95 9 1,788 95 10 1,748 93 11 1,730 92 12 1,765 94

Hinterland 13 1,907 101 14 1,848 98

UK Average 1,882 100

Source: Experian, June 2010.

Comparison Goods

Average Spend Per Head Index Zone (£) UK = 100

1 2,500 85 2 2,916 100 3 2,325 79 4 2,624 90 5 2,190 75 6 3,141 107 Newport City 7 2,919 100

8 2,528 86 9 2,525 86 10 2,379 81 11 2,294 78 12 2,403 87

Hinterland 13 2,923 100 14 2,752 94

UK Average 2,926 100

Source: Experian, June 2010.

Non-Bulky/Bulky Comparison Goods Expenditure Per Head Disaggregation

Bulky All Comp Zone Non-Bulky % % % £ £ £

1 1,812 72.5 688 27.5 2,500 100 2 2,102 72.1 814 27.9 2,916 100 3 1,679 72.2 646 27.8 2,325 100 4 1,887 71.9 737 28.1 2,624 100 5 1,592 72.7 598 27.3 2,190 100 6 2,273 72.4 868 27.6 3,141 100 Newport City 7 2,106 72.1 813 27.9 2,919 100

8 1,851 73.2 677 26.8 2,528 100 9 1,835 72.7 690 27.3 2,525 100 10 1,735 72.9 644 27.1 2,379 100 11 2,294 78.5 630 21.5 2,924 100 12 1,742 72.5 661 27.5 2,403 100

Hinterland 13 2,067 70.7 856 29.3 2,923 100 14 1,994 72.5 758 27.5 2,752 100

Source: Experian, June 2010.

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 3C

Expenditure Forecasts (Extract)

Retail Planner August 2009 Briefing Note 7.1

Introduction Retail Planner is a service for retail planners, property consultants and retailers, providing comprehensive, up-to-date and credible information for retail planning decisions.

This briefing provides and explains trends and forecasts in expenditure on retail goods, leisure services, retail potential and changes in the efficiency of retail floor space.

Retail Planner 2009 This year’s report has been restructured to provide greater clarity and focus. The restructuring follows extensive discussions with users during the economic turmoil of the early months of 2009, which highlighted their requirements for:

Following discussions • a clear indication of expenditure growth prospects for the main with clients, this year’s categories of retail spending in the long term, say to 2026. report has been • guidance as to which of several possible long-term trend growth rates extensively restructured to use in calculations and a justification for the growth rate selected. This requires a robust economic explanation, noting upside and to provide greater clarity downside risks. We have accordingly included a new section on the and focus economic background to provide the necessary context. • sales densities broken down by convenience and comparison goods, using both constant floorspace and forecast changes to floorspace.

Other aspects previously included in the main report, sources of data, definitions of concepts and contacts are included as appendices.

Quarterly reports The economic backdrop remains highly uncertain. However, while the near- term outlook – i.e. for the remainder of 2009 and 2010 – is affected, the medium- and long-term view on which key planning decisions are based is unlikely to change significantly. Clients are invited to contact Experian’s economists regarding the short-term outlook1, but at this stage we do not intend to issue Quarterly Updates to this report as we did in the first few months of this year.

1 See Appendix 1 for contacts

Cardinal Place Embankment House 160 Dundee Street 80 Victoria Street Electric Avenue Edinburgh London Nottingham EH11 1DQ SW1E 5JL NG80 1EH T 44 (0) 131 228 8030 T 44 (0) 203 042 4000 T 44 (0) 115 941 0888 F 44 (0) 131 228 8040 F 44 (0) 207 746 8277 F 44 (0) 115 968 5003 www.business-strategies.co.uk www.experian.co.uk

Contents of this report Economic background Page Recent trends and near term-outlook 2 Medium-term outlook 3 Long-term outlook 4 Alternative scenarios 4

Retail sales volumes Retail sales by main category and leisure spending to 2026 6

Retail sales density Retail sales density - constant floorspace 9 Retail sales density - inc changes to floorspace 10 The future for retail sales densities 11

Appendices 1. Contacts 2. Estimating consumer spending on retail goods and leisure 3. Non-store retail sales 4. Changes in the efficiency of retail floorspace 5. Data and forecasts for spending volumes and values 6 Classification of retail spending 7 Annual changes in retail spend with 0.4% population growth

Economic context

Recent trends and near-term outlook The recession has been The UK economy has contracted by a substantial 5.7% in real terms since this recession began in mid-2008. The weakness has been broad-based, with severe but is entering a exports hit by the global downturn and domestic demand constrained by rising milder phase. unemployment and weak sentiment. The decline has been exaggerated by a record drawdown in stocks. The manufacturing sector has been hardest hit, reflecting the slump in global demand. Construction remains depressed by a sharp fall in housing starts and the cancellation of many projects. The key services sector has also contracted, but at a gentler pace.

Household spending fell in real terms by 3.2% in the four quarters to 2009q1. The pace of decline accelerated from -0.4% in 2008q2 to -1.3% in 2009q1 as higher unemployment and slow growth in earnings hit spending. We estimate that spending fell a further 1% in the second quarter, taking the decline since the recession began to 4.2%.

Consumer expenditure on retail goods has been more resilient than total spending. The latest official retail sales data show spending in volume terms up 1.3% in the three months to June 2009. We believe this divergence between total consumer spending and retail expenditure reflects three major factors:

• consumers have cut back on big ticket items such as expensive holidays, household goods and cars, but continue to spend on other items • huge discounting has kept volumes up • there has been a transfer of spending from services (hospitality, personal care and entertainment) to retail spending on items enabling these activities to be carried on in the home.

The cost to retailers’ margins from discounting and the transfer of spending from service providers in the high street has been a factor underlying the substantial rise from 7% to 11.5% over the past year in the number of vacant shops, according to Experian data. Some of the largest failures have been in the bulky goods sector, which has suffered from the downturn in the housing market. Lack of working capital as a result of the credit crunch has also played a key role.

The recession has been severe, but is entering a milder phase. Business surveys have improved, with the services PMI even moving into growth territory in May. Recent evidence from the mortgage market also suggests that the ferocity of the downturn may be abating. However it is too early to confirm whether this improvement will be sustained while unemployment is rising and lending remains constrained.

We expect further albeit modest declines in GDP in the next few months, with the economy stabilising around the turn of the year, stemming from an end to heavy destocking; a reduction in the rate of decline in house prices; a more marked revival of lending to businesses and a modest pick-up in export demand.

The upturn when it develops in 2010 will be gradual and patchy as investment and household spending remain weak and the global economy revives only slowly. In year-on-year terms, the implication is that consumer spending will shrink by 3.5% this year and contract by a further 0.6% in 2010.

Medium-term outlook

The medium-term outlook is for much slower growth than was seen during the past 10-15 years. We expect GDP growth to average 2.0% a year in 2011- Consumer spending will 16 and consumer spending to average 2.2%. These rates compare with an remain under pressure annual average of near 3% in 1995-2007 for GDP and 3.2% for consumer spending. for some time, falling by 0.5% in 2010 before The key reasons for this marked deceleration are: picking up. But growth • Government finances have deteriorated sharply. Recessions cut tax in the medium term will receipts and benefit payments rise. Bank bail-outs have exacerbated the be modest. fiscal deficit. Finances will remain under pressure even when the economy recovers, as an increasing number move into retirement, raising payments and reducing tax and National Insurance receipts. It is estimated that the government will have to find £40bn a year in the medium term through spending constraints and higher taxes. This will weigh down on consumer spending. • The sharp reduction in investment (down 13% in the year to 2009q1) and cancellation or postponement of plans will inevitably depress medium- term growth prospects in many parts of the UK economy. • There will be no boost on the scale of what was seen in the past decade from consumer credit. The banking sector will be more cautious and households’ appetite for taking on credit will be less voracious as they seek to control their debts which are at historically high levels in relation to incomes. Moreover, savings are likely to be higher than in the past decade as job insecurity continues against backdrop of high unemployment and weak growth. • The main engines of growth in the past decade – financial and business services and the housing market - will be less buoyant. London’s financial services sector will be more tightly regulated and under pressure from centres in the Middle and Far East; a more subdued housing market will curb lending and real estate; and the now mature

business services sector will not be able to repeat its 7.9% annual rate of expansion of 1995-2007. • Public spending - a key creator of jobs in the past decade – will be severely constrained. This will prevent unemployment falling as rapidly as in the aftermath of the recession of the early 1990s.

Long-term outlook While the economy may return to a stronger growth path in the second half of the next decade, we do not believe that it will repeat the exceptional performance of the period 1995-2007 as some of the issues constraining the medium-term outlook remain unresolved. Environmental factors including much higher energy costs will also constrain growth. We forecast GDP growth between 2016 and 2026 to average 2.4% a year.

Economic growth in the In conjunction with our medium-term projection for growth at 2.0% a year in 2011-16, this implies an annual average growth rate in the period to 2026 of UK in the period 2011 to 2.3%. This will be rather slower than the UK’s long-term trend growth, but 2026 will be less robust slightly faster than the rate forecast for the eurozone. than in the past 15 years. Alternative long-term scenarios It will also trail the long- We attach a 65% probability to the central scenario projection of annual growth term trend by a modest in GDP averaging 2.3% to 2026. We present one upside and two downside margin. scenarios, with our projections of annual expansion on retail spending under each alternative case.

Optimistic scenario (20% probability) UK GDP growth matches the long-term trend of 2.5% a year as the problems created by the current recession are overcome within a very few years. Key features of this scenario are:

• Global trade resumes a vigorous growth path and the UK largely retains its market share • Service sector growth approaches the 1995-2007 rate for most of the period to 2026.

Pessimistic scenario (15% probability) 1. Deflation scenario (5% probability). In this worst case scenario, the UK economy takes several years to recover constrained by a weak global background, depressed

consumer and business sentiment, lacklustre investment and anaemic consumer spending. Deflation takes a firm hold from which it is difficult to escape. GDP growth in the period to 2016 averages a meagre 1%, followed by 2% a year to 2026, giving a long-term average of 1.7%, with annual retail sales growth per head averaging just 1.4%. 2. Inflation scenario (10% probability). In this case, the effects of the monetary measures taken to stimulate growth are difficult to reverse and the UK suffers a prolonged period of inflation. High interest rates are required for an extended period to drive inflation out of the system. GDP growth, already depressed by the factors noted in the central scenario, averages 1.5% a year to 2016, followed by growth at 2.4% a year to 2026, an annual average for 2011-26 of little over 2%.

Retail sales per head under alternative scenarios

% per annum 2011-16 2011-26 Central case 1.6 2.0 Optimistic case 1.9 2.2 Deflation scenario 0.5 1.4 Inflation scenario 0.9 1.6

Retail sales volumes

The following table (figure 1) shows projected growth rates per head to 2026 for the main categories of consumer spending on various categories of retail goods.

The table also contains historic growth rates for comparison over three time periods: 1968-2008 (the ultra long-term trend); 1978-2008 (the long-term trend) and 1988-2008 (the medium-term trend).

Figure 1: UK retail sales by main category and leisure spending 2008-26 Vol growth 2012- 2017- 1968- 1978- 1988- 2008 2009 2010 2011 per head (%) 16 26 2008 2008 2008

Retail sales 2.0 0.5 -0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.5 Convenience 0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 goods Comparison 2.7 1.1 -0.4 1.1 2.5 2.8 4.7 5.3 5.5 goods of which bulky 4.8 -3.9 -0.9 0.8 2.9 3.2 5.6 6.2 6.3

non- bulky 1.7 3.6 -0.1 1.2 2.3 2.7 4.3 4.8 5.1

Leisure 0.4 -4.5 -1.5 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.4 Consumer 0.5 -4.2 -1.3 0.8 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.5 spending Retail sales ex 1.6 -0.1 -0.7 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.5 non-store We expect growth in retail sales from shops to match Figure 1 includes an estimate of retail sales excluding non-store retailing2 to that of non-store retailing provide an idea of growth from purely physical outlets that is the major concern of clients of this service. Non-store retailing and repair (e-tailing, mail order and in the longer term. repair of household goods) has grown rapidly in recent years, outpacing store- based trading, and we expect a continuation of this pattern over the next few years. The differences between retail sales growth rates with and without non- store sales are quite considerable in the short to medium term.

However, the initial phase of e-tailing, boosted by the take-up of new technology, is likely to be followed by a more mature phase. From 2015, we forecast that non-store retailing will grow in line with traditional shopping. Consequently, and bearing in mind that non-store retailing accounts for little over 5% of total sales, it is valid in producing the long-term forecasts of growth for the various components of retail spending shown in figures 1 to 4, to focus on retail sales as a whole.

Key features of the forecast are:

• During the expected recovery in 2010/11, growth in consumers’ expenditure on retail goods will be much slower than in many previous

2 Non-store retailing is considered in detail in Appendix 3, which contains a section on internet sales and our view on their treatment in retail capacity assessments.

upturns given the constraints on economic performance, notably a squeeze on incomes from higher interest rates and taxation. • In the medium term (to 2016), growth in retail sales volumes will be much slower than during the past decade and slower than in the long and ultra Increasing maturity of long term. This reflects the constraints on overall economic growth the UK economy, slower outlined in the Economic Context above, a relatively high tax burden and more modest growth in consumer lending than in the past decade. output expansion, less • While growth in household spending is forecast to pick up in the longer recourse to consumer term (2017-26), it will only grow in line with GDP expansion, in contrast to credit and faster exceeding GDP growth by about 0.3 percentage points in the ultra-long population growth will term, (the period 1968-2008). This reflects the increasing maturity of the UK economy, slower output growth, less expansionary consumer credit, reduce per capita retail greater emphasis on green issues, including higher energy costs and an spending to well below ageing population with more modest demands for consumer durables. the long-term trend. Moreover, according to the latest official forecasts, population growth to 2026 is expected to be faster than in the period 1968-2008, averaging 0.7% per annum against 0.2% in the past four decades. This will depress the per capita growth rate used in the table. All categories of retail spending, except convenience goods, lag the ultra long-term trend in our forecast to 2026, and the gap is substantially greater than that seen in the past two decades, which encompassed the credit-fuelled booms of the late 1980s and 1995-2007.

• An alternative scenario for population growth at say 0.4% per annum, reflecting the changes to net immigration as a result of the impact of the recession, would still leave volume growth in total retail sales and all sectors of comparison goods at a much slower pace than the ultra long- term trend.

Summary of long-term growth prospects and a recommendation In figure 2, the long-term growth projections are summarized, with some changes and additions.

• Our projections of future spending covering the periods 2011, 2012-16 and 2017-26 have been merged to provide a long-term forecast covering the period 2011-26.

• The implications of a post-recession population growth projection somewhat lower than the latest official forecast is catered for in a separate

forecast (column 1) showing per capita retail sales volume growth at 0.4% a year population growth.

Figure 2: UK retail sales by main category and leisure spending

Volume growth 2011- 2011- 1968- 1978- 1988- per head (%) 26* 26** 2008 2008 2008 Annual averages Retail sales 2.3 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.5 Convenience 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 goods Comparison 3.0 2.7 4.7 5.3 5.5 goods of which bulky 3.4 3.1 5.6 6.2 6.3

non- bulky 2.8 2.5 4.3 4.8 5.1

Leisure 1.9 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.4 Consumer 2.1 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 spending *0.4% per annum population growthy **0.7% per annum population growth

In making planning This table specifically excludes recent trends and individual years. It focuses decisions for the next two on long-term trends which are key to development projects. Even so, critical choices have to be made, between on the one hand historic medium, long and decades, it is appropriate ultra-long term trends and on the other the forecasts produced by Experian, to focus on long-term using either 0.4% per annum population growth or the official 0.7% growth rate. trends, ignoring the largely short-term effects of We believe that because of the significant constraints on economic activity over the next few years, outlined in the Economic Context, and the slower growth recent developments. forecast for consumer spending in the longer term, it is appropriate to use the forecast growth rates shown in columns 2 and 3 of figure 2 rather than either the long-term, medium term or ultra long-term trends.

Preference may be given to the forecast at 0.4% population growth per annum, as this is somewhat nearer the trend figure, except in the case of convenience goods. Population growth at this pace may prove to be a more realistic projection following the migration changes seen during the recession than the latest official forecast, which pre-dates the recession.

y Year by changes in per capita spend on this assumption are shown in Appendix 7

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APPENDIX 3D

Forecast of Special Forms of Trading (Extract)

Retail Planner March 2010 Note on non-store retailing

ONS changes to retail sales data In February 2010 the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced changes to the classification of retail sales and to the methodology for calculating the value of internet sales. The two classification changes announced are that ‘sale of automotive fuel’ is now classified as retail and ‘repair of personal and household goods’ is now not regarded as a retail activity.

The reclassification will have little effect on the history and forecasts contained in Retail Planner for convenience and comparison goods. For the purposes of Retail Planner, we will continue to define retail sales as ‘all retailing excluding automotive fuel’. The removal of ‘repair of personal and household goods’ from non-store retailing will reduce total retail sales values slightly, but will have very little impact on yearly growth rates.

This briefing therefore focuses on the substantial revision to internet sales numbers. Internet retail sales

Revision to internet sales data Average weekly value The large increase in internet retail sales and their share of the total retail of internet sales % of total £m Old New Old New market as a result of the ONS revisions are shown in the table alongside. The Oct 228 407 4.1 7.4 share is now estimated at 7.7% at end-2009, against 4.9% previously. Nov 292 498 4.8 8.2 Dec 346 534 4.9 7.7 The upward revision reflects the inclusion in the new methodology of all sales Jan 400 8.0 made over the internet by individual businesses using information derived from the monthly ONS Retail Sales Inquiry. This includes a specific question for all Source: Retail Sales Statistical Bulletin businesses, asking the proportion of sales made over the internet. Some 5,000 businesses in Great Britain are included, covering 95% of the retail sector in terms of turnover. Previously, the series used a sample of responses from businesses to produce the ONS’ best estimate of internet sales.

New forecasts Using the long-term ‘All retailing’ projections included in our Retail Planner Briefing Note 7.1, which are consistent with our current forecasts, we show below new forecasts for growth in non-store retailing and its share of total retailing following the publication of the revised ONS data.

Retail Planner March 2010 Note on non-store retailing

Volumes at All retailing Non-store Growth in all Growth in Share of non-store retailing (%) 2005 prices £bn £bn retailing % non-store % Total Comparison Convenience 2008 286.3 22.4 2.7 n.a 7.8 9.6 4.9 2009 289.7 25.6 1.2 14.3 8.8 10.8 5.6 Forecast 2010 290.9 27.4 0.4 7.0 9.4 11.5 6.0 2011 295.5 29.6 1.6 8.0 10.0 12.2 6.4 2012 302.3 31.7 2.3 7.0 10.5 12.7 6.7 2013 309.6 33.6 2.4 6.0 10.8 13.1 7.0 2014 316.9 35.2 2.4 5.0 11.1 13.4 7.2 2015 324.9 36.8 2.5 4.5 11.3 13.6 7.4 2016 333.4 38.3 2.6 4.0 11.5 13.7 7.6 2017 342.4 39.4 2.7 3.0 11.5 13.7 7.6 2018 351.9 40.5 2.8 2.8 11.5 13.6 7.7 2019 361.8 41.7 2.8 2.8 11.5 13.5 7.7 2020 371.9 42.8 2.8 2.8 11.5 13.4 7.8 2021 382.3 44.0 2.8 2.8 11.5 13.4 7.9 2022 393.1 45.3 2.8 2.8 11.5 13.3 8.0 2023 404.1 46.5 2.8 2.8 11.5 13.2 8.1 2024 415.4 47.8 2.8 2.8 11.5 13.1 8.1 2025 427.0 49.2 2.8 2.8 11.5 13.1 8.2 2026 439.0 50.6 2.8 2.8 11.5 13.0 8.3

Our previous forecast showed non-store retailing increasing steadily and at a Notes faster pace than total retail sales until 2016, reaching 8.1% of the total, before

stabilising at that level for the rest of the forecast period. The new forecast, 1) Figures for non-store retailing in 2008 and 2009 are estimated from based on a higher starting point for non-store retailing, (£22.4bn in 2008 data on page 48 of the ONS against £16.0bn) and evidence of stronger growth in recent years has non- publication Business Monitor store retailing reaching 11.5% of the total by 2016 and stabilising at that level SDM28 January 2010. We have as the market becomes mature and grows in line with total retail sales. taken the ONS figure for stalls & markets and a proportion of mail Further work order. This amounts to £7bn for 2009. We add this to our calculation We are also investigating, and hope to publish in the next Retail Planner of internet sales taken from the ONS Briefing Note due this summer, a breakdown of internet spending on goods January Statistical Bulletin. from i) store-based retailers; ii) specialist internet retailers and iii) catalogue- based mail order retailers. 2) ONS data now seem more robust than previously given coverage of 95% of GB businesses (see page 1) but the ONS estimate of internet retailing still trails that produced by IMRG Capgemini. However, it is likely that coverage of IMRG is wider than UK retail sales.

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APPENDIX 3E

Changing Store Productivities (Extract)

Retail sales density

The following tables provide Experian’s forecasts of retail sales density under two broad assumptions: constant floorspace to obtain a pure measure of changing efficiency. and including additions to floorspace. 1. Constant floorspace

Figure 3: Retail sales density - constant floorspace from 2009 2012- 2017- Total retail 2008 2009 2010 2011 16* 26* Total retail floorspace 620 625 625 625 625 625 (millions of sq ft)**

Retail sales £bn (2005 286.3 289.7 290.9 295.5 317.4 388.8 prices)

Sales density £/sq ft 461.7 463.5 465.4 472.8 507.9 622.2

Density growth rate (%) 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.4 2.8

*Annual average; **Source: GOAD.

Figure 3a: Retail sales density convenience goods - constant floorspace from 2009 2012- 2017- Convenience goods 2008 2009 2010 2011 16* 26* Total floorspace 167 169 169 169 169 169 (millions of sq ft)**

Convenience sales £bn 108.9 109.1 109.7 111.0 116.0 129.8 (2005 prices)

Sales density £/sq ft 651.8 646.4 649.6 658.0 687.6 769.3

Density growth rate (%) -0.8 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.5

*Annual average; **Source: GOAD

Figure 3b: Retail sales density comparison goods - constant floorspace 2012- 2017- Comparison goods 2008 2009 2010 2011 16* 26* Total floorspace 453 456 456 456 456 456 (millions of sq ft)**

Comparison sales £bn 177.4 180.6 181.2 184.5 201.4 259.1 (2005 prices)

Sales density £/sq ft 391.6 395.9 397.2 404.3 441.4 567.8

Density growth rate (%) 1.1 0.3 1.8 2.9 3.5

*Annual average ;**Source: GOAD

2. Changing floorspace

Figure 4: Retail sales density- including changes to floorspace* 2012- 2017- Total retail 2008 2009 2010 2011 16* 26* Total retail floorspace 620 625 629 634 650 693 (millions of sq ft)**

Retail sales £bn (2005 286.3 289.7 290.9 295.5 317.4 388.8 Estimates of sales prices) density using the more Sales density £/sq ft 461.7 463.5 462.4 466.1 488.4 560.4 realistic assumption of Density growth rate 0.4 -0.2 0.8 1.6 1.9 changing floorspace, (%) and the method we *Annual average; **Source: GOAD recommend, are shown Figure 4a: Retail sales density sales convenience goods - including in figure 4 changes to floorspace 2012- 2017- Convenience goods 2008 2009 2010 2011 16* 26* Total floorspace 167 169 171 173 178 191 (millions of sq ft)**

Convenience sales 108.9 109.1 109.7 111.0 116.0 129.8 £bn (2005 prices)

Sales density £/sq ft 651.8 645.4 641.1 641.9 651.8 678.4

Density growth rate -1.0 -0.7 0.1 0.6 0.5 (%) *Annual average; **Source: GOAD

Figure 4b: Retail sales density- comparison goods including changes to floorspace 2012- 20117- Comparison goods 2008 2009 2010 2011 16* 26* Total floorspace 453 456 458 461 472 502 (millions of sq ft)**

Comparison sales £bn 177.4 180.6 181.2 184.5 201.4 259.1 (2005 prices)

Sales density £/sq ft 391.6 396.1 395.7 400.1 426.7 515.4

Density growth rate 1.1 -0.1 1.1 2.2 2.6 (%) *Annual average; **Source: GOAD

The future for retail sales densities The rapid increase in comparison goods sales densities in the recent past3 was a product of the retail spending boom and growth rates of well over 3% a year are unlikely to be repeated. This is especially true of the period during which retail sales are depressed by the recession. Projected sales densities growth on the changing floorspace assumption are minimal or negative during 2009- 11. Thereafter, growth resumes at a faster pace, 1.6% a year for retail sales as a whole between 2012 and 2016, rising to 1.9% in the following decade.

Scope for density increases is much more limited for convenience goods than for comparison goods. Continuing trends towards more modern, higher density, stores and the demolition of older inefficient space means that the expected comparison rate is likely to be close to 2.4% a year over the next 15 years, against 0.5% for convenience goods, where a high proportion of sales are through well-established inner city sites.

3 See Appendix 4

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APPENDIX 4

Retail Floorspace Data and Benchmark Turnovers

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APPENDIX 4A

Methodology: Estimating Retail Floorspace of City and District Centres

Appendix 4A

Existing Retail Floorspace of City and District Centres in Newport City

Methodology

1. For Newport City Centre we have used the latest figures published by Experian GOAD, based on a survey date of 22 October, 2008.

2. The gross GOAD retail floorspace estimates are converted to sales floorspace figures by applying the net to gross ratios set out at paragraph 4.47 in the main report.

3. Since October, 2008 survey information prepared by the Council indicates that vacancy levels for the city centre as a whole have remained broadly constant. However, the GOAD data excludes retail floorspace in basements and on upper floors, unless stores are within shopping centres. From observation a number of comparison goods ‘high street’ stores in the city centre trade on more than one level. For this reason, we have adjusted upwards the GOAD floorspace total for comparison goods by 10%.

4. Colliers International visited the District Centres and carried out a land use survey within the boundary of each centre (as defined by the Newport UDP, 1996-2011).

5. The land use maps are reproduced at Appendix 6. Units are colour coded and identify convenience goods shops, comparison goods shops, services, voids and miscellaneous uses.

6. The gross retail floorspace of the footprint of each retail unit was then estimated by Colliers International using its in-house GIS, which identifies individual buildings/shops.

7. From the site visits made to each centre, any upper floors and basements that are utilised for retail sales were identified, and this additional floorspace was included. In practice, there were very few instances of this kind.

8. Gross retail floorspace was then converted to sales floorspace by applying the net to gross ratios set out at paragraph 4.47 in the main report. Goad Centre Category Report (Floorspace sq ft)

Centre: Newport (Wales) Base: All UK Centres Centre Selection: All Outlets Survey Date: 23/10/2008

Category Floorspace sq ft Area % Base % Index

Retail Convenience Bakers & Confectioners 7,500 0.52 0.66 79 Butchers 800 0.06 0.29 19 Confectionery, Tobacco & News 8,400 0.58 0.38 154 Convenience Stores 3,200 0.22 0.81 27 Fishmongers 0 0.00 0.04 0 Frozen Foods 5,200 0.36 0.53 67 Greengrocers 1,100 0.08 0.13 57 Grocers & Delicatessens 5,400 0.37 0.44 85 Health Foods 3,100 0.21 0.22 98 Markets 34,900 2.42 0.67 358 Off Licences 0 0.00 0.29 0 Shoe Repairs & Key Cutting 1,300 0.09 0.10 93 Supermarkets 8,700 0.60 6.93 9 Total Convenience 79,600 5.51 11.49 48

Comparison Antique Shops 1,100 0.08 0.19 41 Art & Art Dealers 700 0.05 0.33 15 Booksellers 9,300 0.64 0.41 157 Carpets & Flooring 1,900 0.13 0.50 26 Catalogue Showrooms 9,900 0.69 0.43 158 Charity Shops 10,700 0.74 1.00 74 Chemist & Drugstores 10,300 0.71 1.27 56 Childrens & Infants Wear 7,200 0.50 0.37 136 Clothing General 32,900 2.28 2.92 78 Crafts, Gifts, China & Glass 3,900 0.27 0.53 51 Cycles & Accessories 0 0.00 0.14 0 Department & Variety Stores 52,200 3.61 3.98 91 DIY & Home Improvement 0 0.00 1.08 0 Electrical & Other Durable Goods 8,100 0.56 1.02 55 Florists 2,500 0.17 0.25 71 Footwear 12,300 0.85 0.82 103 Furniture Fitted 0 0.00 0.32 0 Furniture General 4,200 0.29 1.31 22 Gardens & Equipment 0 0.00 0.05 0 Greeting Cards 10,300 0.71 0.51 139 Hardware & Household Goods 36,300 2.51 2.04 123 Jewellery, Watches & Silver 8,500 0.59 0.61 96 Ladies & Mens Wear & Acc. 9,500 0.66 0.81 82 Ladies Wear & Accessories 50,700 3.51 2.49 141 Leather & Travel Goods 5,100 0.35 0.11 334 Mens Wear & Accessories 7,700 0.53 0.58 92 Music & Musical Instruments 1,100 0.08 0.10 75 Music & Video Recordings 4,600 0.32 0.23 141 Newsagents & Stationers 6,000 0.42 0.56 74 Office Supplies 0 0.00 0.11 0 Other Comparison Goods 8,200 0.57 0.54 106 Photographic & Optical 2,100 0.15 0.07 216 Secondhand Goods, Books, etc. 1,000 0.07 0.09 78 Sports, Camping & Leisure Goods 7,600 0.53 0.89 59 Telephones & Accessories 13,500 0.93 0.51 184

Centre: Newport (Wales) Base: All UK Centres Centre Selection: All Outlets Survey Date: 23/10/2008

Category Floorspace sq ft Area % Base % Index Textiles & Soft Furnishings 9,700 0.67 0.47 143 Toiletries, Cosmetics & Beauty Products 14,600 1.01 0.67 150 Toys, Games & Hobbies 9,200 0.64 0.54 118 Vehicle & Motorcycle Sales 0 0.00 0.53 0 Vehicle Accessories 0 0.00 0.22 0 Total Comparison 372,900 25.81 29.58 87

Retail Service Clothing & Fancy Dress Hire 300 0.02 0.03 64 Dry Cleaners & Launderettes 900 0.06 0.31 20 Filling Stations 0 0.00 0.09 0 Health & Beauty 29,300 2.03 2.49 81 Opticians 6,300 0.44 0.65 67 Other Retail Services 0 0.00 0.25 0 Photo Processing 0 0.00 0.07 0 Photo Studio 0 0.00 0.06 0 Post Offices 7,500 0.52 0.33 156 Repairs, Alterations & Restoration 600 0.04 0.08 53 Travel Agents 13,700 0.95 0.46 206 TV, Cable & Video Rental 0 0.00 0.00 0 Vehicle Rental 0 0.00 0.04 0 Vehicle Repairs & Services 5,000 0.35 0.54 65 Video Tape Rental 0 0.00 0.17 0 Total Retail Service 63,600 4.40 5.56 79

Other Retail Other Retail Outlets 900 0.06 0.09 68 Total Other Retail 900 0.06 0.09 68

Total Retail 517,000 35.78

Service Leisure Services Bars & Wine Bars 33,800 2.34 1.68 140 Bingo & Amusements 12,300 0.85 0.80 107 Cafes 20,300 1.40 1.35 104 Casinos & Betting Offices 12,700 0.88 0.79 112 Cinemas, Theatres & Concert Halls 33,000 2.28 1.20 190 Clubs 22,300 1.54 1.08 143 Disco, Dance & Nightclubs 11,800 0.82 0.38 216 Fast Food & Take Away 25,700 1.78 2.06 86 Hotels & Guest Houses 15,800 1.09 1.40 78 Public Houses 75,600 5.23 3.33 157 Restaurants 15,800 1.09 2.87 38 Sports & Leisure Facilities 7,700 0.53 1.23 43 Total Leisure Services 286,800 19.85 18.15 109

Financial & Business Services Building Societies 7,400 0.51 0.33 156 Building Supplies & Services 1,800 0.12 0.46 27 Business Goods & Services 0 0.00 0.05 0 Employment & Careers 9,500 0.66 0.25 263 Financial Services 10,800 0.75 0.72 103 Legal Services 29,300 2.03 0.62 325

Centre: Newport (Wales) Base: All UK Centres Centre Selection: All Outlets Survey Date: 23/10/2008

Category Floorspace sq ft Area % Base % Index Other Business Services 0 0.00 0.32 0 Printing & Copying 0 0.00 0.16 0 Property Services 23,100 1.60 1.49 108 Retail Banks 40,400 2.80 2.43 115 Total Financial & Business Services 122,300 8.46 6.83 124

Public Services Educational Institutions 9,700 0.67 1.00 67 Emergency Services 24,100 1.67 0.48 348 Government & Municipal Buildings 31,100 2.15 2.22 97 Information & Advice Centres 9,500 0.66 0.38 174 Libraries, Museums & Art Galleries 0 0.00 0.95 0 Total Public Services 74,400 5.15 5.03 102

Health & Medical Services Medical Services 0 0.00 0.84 0 Total Health & Medical Services 0 0.00 0.84 0

Religious Services Religious Institutions 22,300 1.54 1.78 87 Total Religious Services 22,300 1.54 1.78 87

Transport Services Car Parks 84,700 5.86 4.74 124 Taxis & Mini-cabs 2,200 0.15 0.07 210 Transport Facilities 3,500 0.24 0.33 74 Total Transport Services 90,400 6.26 5.14 122

Total Service 596,200 41.26

Vacant Vacant Non-Retail Vacant Other Buildings 0 0.00 0.59 0 Total Vacant Non-Retail 0 0.00 0.59 0

Vacant Retail Vacant Retail/Service 288,900 19.99 7.55 265 Total Vacant Retail 288,900 19.99 7.55 265

Total Vacant 288,900 19.99

Commerce General Offices Offices 11,400 0.79 5.11 15 Sorting Office 0 0.00 0.33 0 Total General Offices 11,400 0.79 5.44 14

Industrial Activities Works, Warehouses & Factories 7,300 0.51 0.84 60 Total Industrial Activities 7,300 0.51 0.84 60

Unclassified Building Entrance & Stores 22,800 1.58 1.00 157

Centre: Newport (Wales) Base: All UK Centres Centre Selection: All Outlets Survey Date: 23/10/2008

Category Floorspace sq ft Area % Base % Index Total Unclassified Building 22,800 1.58 1.00 157

Wholesale Trade Wholesalers 1,300 0.09 0.07 133 Total Wholesale Trade 1,300 0.09 0.07 133

Total Commerce 42,800 2.96

Centre Total 1,444,900 sq ft (Ground Floor footprint)

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APPENDIX 4B

City Centre and District Centres: Existing Retail Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers

Appendix 4B (i) Estimated Retail Floorspace in Newport City Centre and District Centres

Position Centre Comparison Convenience All Retail Comparison Convenience All Retail in Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods Hierarchy Floorspace Floorspace Floorspace Floorspace Floorspace Floorspace Sq M Gross Sq M Gross Sq M Net Sq M Net Sq M Net Sq M Net City Centre Newport City Centre 38,108 7,396 45,504 24,770 4,807 29,577

Beechwood 1,377 485 1,862 895 315 1,210 Bettws 375 892 1,267 244 580 824 Caerleon 197 654 851 128 425 553 Caerleon Road 1,410 877 2,287 917 570 1,487 Clarence Place 85 825 910 55 536 592 Commercial Road 3,367 9,111 12,478 1,709 4,004 5,713 Corporation Road 1,494 584 2,078 971 380 1,351 District Maindee 2,672 1,518 4,190 1,737 987 2,724 Centre Malpas Road 3,167 1,559 4,726 2,059 1,014 3,072 Ringland 200 1,139 1,339 130 740 870 Risca Road (The Handpost) 474 285 759 308 185 493 Newport Retail Park (Spytty Rd) 18,889 (1) 8,430 (2) 27,319 17,535 4,065 (2) 21,600

Sub-Total (All District Centres) 33,707 26,359 60,066 26,688 13,801 40,489

Total (City and District Centres) 71,815 33,755 105,570 51,458 18,608 70,066

Notes: (1) See Appendix 4B(ii) (2) See Appendix 4B (iii) for a more detailed breakdown of retail floorspace and estimated turnover. Appendix 4B (ii) Newport Retail Park District Centre: Comparison Goods Floorspace

Location Occupier Floorspace Floorspace Estimated Estimated 2010 (Sq M Gross)(1) (Sq M Net) (2) 2010 Benchmark Benchmark Turnover Sales Density (£m) (4) (£ psm net) (3)

Tesco - 533 6,000 3.2

Matalan 3,716 3,344 2,210 7.4

Boots 1,331 1,198 8,620 10.3

Birthdays 383 345 3,100 1.1

Peacocks 715 644 2,140 1.4

Clarks 435 392 11,170 4.4

New Look 626 563 4,170 2.3

Newport Asda Living 2,230 2,007 2,750 5.5 Retail Park District Outfit 1,258 1,132 2,500 2.8 Centre Next 929 836 5,690 4.8 SCS Furniture 933 840 2,070 1.7

Sports Direct 673 606 2,250 1.4

JJB Sports 1,193 1,074 2,240 2.4

PPC World 1,384 1,246 7,150 8.9

The Range 2,793 2,514 2,000 5.0 Carphone 290 261 3,000 0.8 Warehouse Total 18,889 17,535 3,616 63.4

(1) Estimated by Colliers International (in-house UK retail warehouse database). (2) Estimated by adopting a net to gross ratio of 90:100. (3) Estimated by Colliers International (based on company average figures published by Mintel). (4) Annual benchmark turnover for 2010 is derived by multiplying the sales floorspace (sq m net) by the benchmark sales density (£ psm net). Appendix 4B (iii) Newport Report Park District Centre: Convenience Goods Floorspace

Occupier Floorspace Floorspace Estimated 2010 Estimated 2010 (Sq M Gross) (1) (Sq M Net) (2) Benchmark Benchmark Sales Density Turnover (£) (4) (£ psm net) (3)

Tesco 6,305 2,684 12,250 32.9 Lidl 1,429 929 2,820 2.6 Iceland 695 452 5,730 2.6 Total 8,429 4,065 9,373 38.1

Notes: (1) Source: IGD and Colliers International estimates. (2) Source: IGD excludes estimated comparison goods floorspace of 533 sq m net in the Tesco. (See Appendix 4B ii).

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APPENDIX 4C

Out of Centre Retail Warehouses: Existing Retail Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers

Appendix 4C Out of Centre Retail Warehouses: All Comparison Goods Floorspace

Location Occupier Floorspace (Sq Floorspace (Sq Estimated 2010 Estimated 2010 M Gross)(1) M Net) (2) Benchmark Benchmark Sales Density Turnover (£ psm net) (3) (£m) (4)

Currys 2,369 2,132 6,750 14.4 Harlech Retail Hobby craft 929 836 2,500 2.1 Park Homebase 2,608 2,347 1,330 3.1 Sub Total 5,906 5,315 - 19.6 Comet 1,865 1,679 7,690 12.9 Staples 1,302 1,172 3,000 3.5 28 East Retail FW Stores 1,006 905 2,000 1.8 Park TJ Hucker 3,239 2,915 1,880 5.5 JJB Sports 2,204 1,984 2,240 4.4 Sub Total 9,616 8,655 - 28.1 Next Home 1,858 1,672 5,690 9.5 Argos Extra 903 813 2,750 2.2 TK Maxx 2,318 2,086 2,880 6.0 Maesglas Retail Park Pets at Home 938 844 2,500 2.1 Halfords 1,523 1,371 2,500 3.4 Dreams 488 439 2,000 0.9 Sub Total 8,028 7,225 - 24.1 The Bath Centre 678 610 2,500 1.5 Newport West B&M Bargains 929 836 2,750 2.3 Retail Park Home Bargains 929 836 2,500 2.1 Sub Total 2,536 2,284 - 5.9 Carpetright 1,323 1,191 1,340 1.6 No Frills DIY 3,340 3,006 1,250 3.8 CCS Beds Direct 1,000 900 2,000 1.8 Maesglas Road Buyology Discounts 1,000 900 2,000 1.8 The Leather 1,000 900 2,000 1.8 Leaders Pets Centre 1,000 900 2,250 2.0 Sub Total 8,663 7,797 - 12.8 Corporation Rd B&Q 5,740 5,166 1,750 9.0 Spytty Road Dunelm Mill Shop 1,858 1,672 2,500 4.2 Chartist Way Focus 3,254 2,929 1,250 3.7 Sub Total 10,852 9,767 - 16.9 Total 45,599 41,043 2,617 107.4

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APPENDIX 4D

Out of Centre Superstores: Existing Retail Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers

Appendix 4D: Out of Centre Superstores: A Mix of Convenience and Comparison Goods

Location Occupier Floorspace Floorspace Sales Floorspace Estimated 2010 Estimated 2010 Sq M Sq M Benchmark Turnover(4) Gross(1) Net(1) Sales Density Convenience Comparison Convenience Comparison Convenience Comparison Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods Sq M Net(2) (£psm net)(2) (£psm net)(3) (£psm net)(3) (£m) (£)

Harlech Retail Park/Cardiff Road Tesco Extra 10,248 6,160 4,620 1,540 12,250 6,000 56.6 9.2

Duffryn/Pencarn Asda 6,299 4,492 3,594 898 11,450 6,000 41.2 5.4 Way

Shaftesbury Street J Sainsbury 4,827 2,641 2,641 0 10,200 - 26.9 0

Azalea Road Rogerstone Morrisons 6,510 2,406 2,406 0 12,200 - 29.4 0

Total 27,884 15,699 13,261 2,438 11,621 6,000 154.1 14.6

(1) Source: Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD), 2010. (2) Estimated by Colliers International from site visits (April 2010). (3) Estimated by Colliers International (based on company average figures published by Mintel). (4) Annual benchmark turnover for 2010 is derived by multiplying the sales floorspace (sq m net) by the benchmark sales density (£psm).

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APPENDIX 4E

Retail Commitments in Newport City: Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers

Appendix 4E (i) Retail Floorspace Commitments: Convenience Goods (as at 31 March, 2010)

Description of Location/Centre Application Retail Sales Benchmark Estimated Development Number Floorspace Floorspace Sales Density Turnover, (Sq M Gross) (Sq M Net) (£ psm Net, 2010 2010) (£m) Development of a new Crindau. replacement Sainsburys Former gas works 09/0629 10,347 4,026 10,200 41.1 store. site. (14.2) (1) Under construction (Out of Centre) Mixed use of Rodney Parade redevelopment of stadium Stadium to include convenience 08/0689 370 241 5,000 1.2 redevelopment store. (Out of Centre) Not implemented Demolition of redundant garage and new Chepstow Road 08/1578 223 145 5,000 0.7 residential and retail. (Out of Centre) Not implemented Erection of a new food Usk Way store (Lidl). (Edge of City 09/0598 1,521 1,390 3,000 4.2 Under Construction Centre) Replacement store for Newport Retail Tesco. 08/0407 12,765 4,064 12,250 49.8 Park District Centre Not implemented (16.9) (2) Approved Redevelopment of the Newport Retail following 929 (3) 604 7,500 4.5 Megabowl Park District Centre 2008 Appeal TOTAL - - - 10,470 - 41.7

Notes: (1) We assume that the existing Sainsbury’s store at Shaftsbury Street has a benchmark turnover of £26.9 million per annum in convenience goods. The “net additional” convenience goods turnover of the new store is therefore £14.2 million (for 2010).

(2) We assume that the existing Tesco store at the Newport Retail Park has a benchmark turnover of £32.9 million per annum in convenience goods. The “net additional” convenience goods turnover of the new store is therefore £16.9 million (for 2010).

(3) We assume that 929 sq m gross of the 3,252 sq m gross of the Class A1 retail that has consent will trade in convenience goods (ie. one unit of 929 sq m), with the remaining 2,323 sq m gross trading as comparison goods (see Appendix 4e(ii)). Appendix 4E (ii) Retail Floorspace Commitments: Comparison Goods (as at 31 March, 2010)

Description of Location/Centre Application Retail Sales Benchmark Estimated Development Number Floorspace Floorspace Sales Density Turnover, (Sq M Gross) (Sq M Net) (£ psm Net, 2010 2010) (£m)

Crindau. Former Development of new gas works site. 09/0629 10,347 3,037 6,000 18.2 Sainsburys superstore (Out of Centre) (18.2) (1)

Replacement store for Newport Retail 22.2 Tesco. 08/0407 12,765 3,704 6,000 Park District Centre (19.0) (2) Not implemented

Approved Redevelopment of the Newport Retail following 2,323 (3) 2,091 5,000 10.5 Megabowl Park District Centre 2008 Appeal

TOTAL - - - 8,832 - 47.7

Notes: (1) We assume that the existing Sainsbury’s store at Shaftsbury Street has a negligible benchmark turnover in comparison goods. The ‘net additional’ comparison goods turnover of the new store in therefore £18.2 million.

(2) We assume that the existing Tesco store at the Newport Retail Park has a benchmark comparison goods turnover of £3.2 million. The “net additional” comparison goods turnover of the new store is therefore £19.0 million.

(3) We assume that 2,323 sq m gross of the Class A1 retail that has consent will trade in comparison goods (ie. one unit of 929 sq m gross and two units of 697 sq m gross), with the remaining 929 sq m gross trading as convenience goods (see Appendix 4e(i)).

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APPENDIX 5

Retail Floorspace Capacity Assessment

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

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APPENDIX 5A

Methodology for Assessing Retail Floorspace Capacity

Methodology for Assessing Quantitative Retail Need / Capacity Total available expenditure at any particular year will originate from two sources:- inside the survey area and from outside the survey area. Step 1 Catchment Area Definition and Study Time Frame Within the survey area – generated expenditure is calculated by multiplying the resident Step 1A The catchment (or survey) area should be defined with regard to the study objective. population by the estimate of average spend per head. This calculation can also be undertaken for each zone. Step 1B The catchment should then be subdivided into zones (or sub-areas) to reflect the number and location of retail centres and the accessibility between them. Outside the survey area – it is likely that there will be an in-flow of retail expenditure from people living outside the survey area. This is likely to be particularly significant if the survey area The number of zones will depend on the size of the sample for the household survey. Ideally a contains higher order centres and/or a popular tourist centre. The main types of in-flow are as minimum of around 100 interviews should be carried out within each zone. follows:-

Zone boundaries are normally defined in terms of administrative boundaries or postal geography. - Long distance shopping trips made by residents – the amount of spending from this source can be determined from household surveys carried out in adjoining areas or should be estimated Step 1C An assessment will normally adopt the current year as its starting point or “base year”. The end by reference to the best available sources. year, or “forecast year”, will normally be determined by the end date of the Plan. - Workers – a large daily working population will generate retail expenditure. For major In preparing quantitative need studies it is normally helpful to also produce need estimates for commuter areas the spending produced by workers who live outside the survey area should be selected intermediate years, since this will show how floorspace need (if any) changes or grows estimated and included. over time. - Tourists – visitors from the rest of the UK and overseas may for certain locations be an Step 1D A constant price base must be adopted for the quantitative need assessment. Thus all monetary important generator of retail expenditure. Using survey data where available the spending figures are given in real values and discounted for the affects of price inflation. from this source must also be estimated and included.

Step 2 Analyse Consumer Demand Estimates must be made of the extent to which the scale of in-flow retail expenditure will change through to the forecast year(s) in real terms. Step 2A Population estimates for each zone at the base year are required. Each of the zone populations must then be projected forwards to the forecast year(s). Account should also be taken of whether special forms of trading is likely to increase as a proportion of consumer retail expenditure per head. Step 2B Estimates of retail expenditure per head are required for either the catchment area as a whole or ideally for each zone. Step 3 Analyse Retail Supply

Estimates are also likely to be required for different categories of goods; the most common are: Step 3A The existing stock of retail floorspace in the Plan area must be determined by the main goods convenience goods and comparison goods. categories analysed at Step 2B. This is essential since it is virtually impossible to provide a robust estimate of future quantitative need if the current floorspace supply is unknown. All expenditure data providers produce estimates for user defined areas which reflect the socio- demographics and affluence of the localities. All retail floorspace must be included – in centre, edge of centre and out-of-centre.

It is essential that the expenditure per head estimates are adjusted to the correct price base (see If existing stock figures are unavailable, it will normally be necessary to undertake or commission Step 1D) and also that spending on special forms of trading is excluded (i.e. this is expenditure a thorough retail audit of the current retail provision. that does not take place in shops e.g. that through mail order, through vending machines and also over the internet). As well as estimates of floorspace quantity, a survey of retail occupiers or a health check should ideally be carried out. This will ascertain information on the quality of the retail offer, the physical Step 2C Projection of Expenditure Per Head Estimates Through to the Forecast Year(s) condition of the floorspace stock (e.g. size and configuration of units) and the trading performance of the shops. National expenditure growth forecasts are published by a number of organisations (e.g. Experian). Comprehensive information on the quantity and quality of the existing retail offer / floorspace Step 2D Total available retail expenditure (for each goods category) should be calculated for the survey stock, combined with the results of a household survey, will inform the assessment of whether the area and the constituent zones at both the base year and the forecast year(s). Thus the “growth” in retail economy is currently trading at equilibrium or not (see Step 4A below). available expenditure can be identified.

Step 3B A household survey should be commissioned to establish the existing pattern of shopper behaviour The extent of the existing retail floorspace over or under-supply can be estimated by converting and retail consumer expenditure flows within the Plan area and between the Plan area and the existing turnover surplus or deficit into floorspace by applying an appropriate average sales adjoining areas. density.

This survey as a minimum should cover the whole of the Plan area. However, there are important Step 5 Changes in Retail Demand and Retail Supply through to the Forecast Year(s) benefits if the survey can be extended to cover other adjoining and nearby areas (i.e. it can then inform on the extent of in-flow expenditure from beyond the Plan area – see step 2D above). Step 5A Step 2D estimated the total available retail expenditure within the Plan area at the forecast year(s) for each of the main goods categories. The base year market shares (from Step 3C) may then be The most cost-effective form of household survey is by telephone. As stated at Step 1B, a applied in order to obtain estimates of the levels of retained available expenditure at the forecast minimum of 80 completed interviews per zone is recommended. year(s).

The survey should quantify shopper behaviour separately for the main goods categories. It should be considered whether the application of the base year market shares are appropriate at the forecast year(s) in relation to the Plan area as a whole and/or individual centres. If it is Step 3C The household survey results can then be applied to the totals of available expenditure by zone considered that expenditure outflow (or leakage) is too high, or a centre is not achieving its true (from Step 2D) in order to estimate the existing retail turnovers of centres and stores within the retailing potential, then a case could be made for increasing the market share(s). Alternatively, if it Plan area. is thought that the proportion of expenditure being retained is too high, then the market share(s) could be reduced. For centres which attract long distance shopping trips and/or which benefit from commuter and tourist expenditure (see Step 2D), allowances must be made for turnover contributions from these In either situation, the adjustment of the market shares should be the result of an interactive sources. process, which focuses on realistic expectations of trade retention within individual zones within the Plan area. The actual centre and store turnovers derived from the household survey should, wherever possible, be cross-checked against actual turnover figures from other sources (e.g. the retailers It should also be borne in mind that adjusting the market share of a centre will have direct themselves) where these are available. implications for the market shares of other centres. Similarly, increasing the market share for the Plan area as a whole will mean adjoining areas will lose their share of available expenditure. This The household survey will determine the actual levels of available retail expenditure retained by may require collaboration and agreement with nearby Planning Authorities otherwise double individual centres and the Plan area as a whole. These are the base year market shares and can be counting of available expenditure may occur. calculated for each main category of goods. Step 5B Step 3D estimated the benchmark retail turnovers generated within the Plan area in the base year Step 3D A “benchmark” turnover for each of the main goods categories must be derived for the Plan area for the main categories of goods. These turnovers must then be projected to the forecast (year(s)) as a whole and for each centre. When compared to the actual turnovers calculated at Step 3C, this by taking into account any expected improvements in store efficiency (i.e. sales densities). In allows one to determine whether the existing floorspace is under or over-trading. addition, the turnovers of any retail commitments (normally taken as comprising floorspace under construction or with planning consent) within the Plan area, must be added. It may also be The best way to identify whether the existing floorspace is over or under-trading is to carry out a appropriate to take into account the turnover associated with retail proposals and / or the re-use of survey of the retailers themselves. vacant space.

If this is not possible, then published company average sales densities for leading retailers may be Step 5C The monetary difference between the total potential retained expenditure at 5A and the forecast used. In any event, consideration should be given as to whether company averages are weighted retail turnover at 5B gives a measure of the quantitative need for additional retail floorspace within up or down as appropriate to reflect local circumstances (e.g. the affluence of the area, the type the Plan area since the base year. If there is an expenditure surplus this is converted into a and size of stores and the costs of the location to retailers). floorspace total by dividing through by an appropriate average sales density. Similarly, if there is an expenditure deficit, a floorspace over-supply can be calculated in the same way. Step 4 Retail Demand vs. Retail Supply in the Base Year Step 5D To arrive at a final estimate of overall quantitative need the floorspace outputs from Step 5C must Step 4A It is necessary to test the adequacy of existing retail provision in the Plan area. If actual turnovers be combined with the existing floorspace over / under supply figures derived at Step 4A. (from Step 3C) exceed the benchmark turnovers (from Step 3D) then it can be said that the current floorspace stock is over-trading, and that there is an existing need for additional floorspace. Conversely, if actual turnovers are less than the benchmark turnovers then there is an existing over-supply of floorspace. Lastly, if actual and benchmark turnovers are the same (or close) then the Plan area’s retail economy for that category of goods can be said to be in equilibrium.

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APPENDIX 5B

The Need for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace: Scenario 1 (Constant Market Shares Approach)

SCENARIO 1: RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT: COMPARISON GOODS (INCORPORATING ESTIMATES OF (ANY) UNDER / OVER TRADING AT THE BASE YEAR, 2010)

CONTENTS

TABLE 1 - POPULATION CHANGE BY ZONE

TABLE 2 - EXPENDITURE ON COMPARISON GOODS PER HEAD OF POPULATION BY ZONE (INCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING) TABLE 3 - EXPENDITURE ON COMPARISON GOODS PER HEAD OF POPULATION BY ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING) TABLE 4 - TOTAL AVAILABLE COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING) TABLE 5 - TOTAL AVAILABLE COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING) DISAGGREGATED BETWEEN NON BULKY AND BULKY COMPARISON GOODS TABLE 6a - ESTIMATED NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (COLUMN PERCENT) (1) TABLE 6b - ESTIMATED BULKY COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (COLUMN PERCENT) (1) TABLE 7a - ESTIMATED NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (£ MILLION) TABLE 7b - ESTIMATED BULKY COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (£ MILLION) TABLE 8 - ESTIMATED ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 9a - ALL COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE AT THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (COLUMN PERCENT)

TABLE 9b - UNADJUSTED ALL COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE AT THE DESIGN YEARS (COLUMN PERCENT)

TABLE 10 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2016 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 11 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL ALL COMPARISON GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2016 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 12 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2016

TABLE 13 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2021 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 14 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL ALL COMPARISON GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2021 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 15 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2021

TABLE 16 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2026 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 17 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL ALL COMPARISON GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2026 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 18 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2026 TABLE 1 - POPULATION CHANGE BY ZONE

Total Percentage 2010 Population Zone 2016 Population 2021 Population 2026 Population Increase Increase (Base Year) (2010-2026) (2010-2026) Zone 1 35,663 35,949 36,121 36,263 600 1.7%

Zone 2 8,303 8,365 8,568 8,758 455 5.5%

Zone 3 39,521 39,238 39,294 39,321 -200 -0.5%

Zone 4 17,711 20,316 23,269 26,101 8,390 47.4%

Zone 5 19,366 20,515 21,616 22,663 3,297 17.0%

Zone 6 5,561 5,502 5,435 5,366 -195 -3.5%

Zone 7 15,807 15,703 16,004 16,285 478 3.0%

Zone 8 70,445 74,756 76,997 80,581 10,136 14.4%

Zone 9 52,950 53,914 56,022 57,230 4,280 8.1%

Zone 10 67,874 68,462 70,747 71,981 4,107 6.1%

Zone 11 56,424 56,709 58,280 59,353 2,929 5.2%

Zone 12 87,826 88,467 91,539 93,172 5,346 6.1%

Zone 13 5,514 5,745 5,886 6,182 668 12.1%

Zone 14 36,140 39,246 41,445 44,895 8,755 24.2% TOTAL 519,105 532,887 551,223 568,151 49,046 9.4%

Notes: Population projections for all years and zones have been provided by Experian. For zones 1 to 7 inclusive (those zones within Newport City), the Experian populations have been adjusted on a zone by zone basis to reflect the relatively substantial planned house building programme in the City (the methodology for carrying out the adjustments is set out in Appendix 2). TABLE 2 - EXPENDITURE ON COMPARISON GOODS PER HEAD OF POPULATION BY ZONE (INCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING)

Expenditure Per Head (£) (1) Zone Increase (£) Increase % 2008 2010 (Base Year) 2016 2021 2026 (2010-2026) (2010-2026) Zone 1 2,500 2,517 2,880 3,306 3,795 1,278 50.8%

Zone 2 2,916 2,936 3,359 3,856 4,427 1,491 50.8%

Zone 3 2,325 2,341 2,678 3,074 3,530 1,189 50.8%

Zone 4 2,624 2,642 3,022 3,470 3,984 1,341 50.8%

Zone 5 2,190 2,205 2,522 2,896 3,325 1,119 50.8%

Zone 6 3,141 3,163 3,618 4,154 4,768 1,606 50.8%

Zone 7 2,919 2,939 3,362 3,860 4,431 1,492 50.8%

Zone 8 2,5282,546 2,912 3,343 3,838 1,292 50.8%

Zone 9 2,525 2,543 2,908 3,339 3,833 1,291 50.8%

Zone 10 2,379 2,396 2,740 3,146 3,612 1,216 50.8%

Zone 11 2,294 2,310 2,642 3,033 3,483 1,173 50.8%

Zone 12 2,403 2,420 2,768 3,178 3,648 1,228 50.8%

Zone 13 2,923 2,943 3,367 3,865 4,438 1,494 50.8%

Zone 14 2,752 2,771 3,170 3,639 4,178 1,407 50.8%

Notes: (1) Average consumer expenditure per head on comparison goods for 2008 has been estimated by Experian for each zone. The 2008 expenditure per head figures in each zone have been projected forwards to 2010 (the base year) and the forecast years of 2016, 2021, and 2026 by using UK expenditure per head growth forecasts published by Experian (see Appendix 3B). TABLE 3 - EXPENDITURE ON COMPARISON GOODS PER HEAD OF POPULATION BY ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING)

Expenditure Per Head (£) (1) Zone Increase (£) (2010- Increase % (2010- 2010 (Base Year) 2016 2021 2026 2026) 2026) Zone 1 2,228 2,485 2,863 3,302 1,074 48.2%

Zone 2 2,599 2,899 3,339 3,851 1,253 48.2%

Zone 3 2,072 2,311 2,662 3,071 999 48.2%

Zone 4 2,338 2,608 3,005 3,466 1,127 48.2%

Zone 5 1,952 2,177 2,508 2,893 941 48.2%

Zone 6 2,7993,122 3,597 4,149 1,349 48.2%

Zone 7 2,601 2,902 3,343 3,855 1,254 48.2%

Zone 8 2,253 2,513 2,895 3,339 1,086 48.2%

Zone 9 2,250 2,510 2,892 3,335 1,085 48.2%

Zone 10 2,120 2,365 2,724 3,142 1,022 48.2%

Zone 11 2,044 2,280 2,627 3,030 986 48.2%

Zone 12 2,141 2,389 2,752 3,174 1,032 48.2%

Zone 13 2,605 2,905 3,347 3,861 1,256 48.2%

Zone 14 2,452 2,736 3,151 3,635 1,182 48.2%

Notes: (1) Expenditure per head on comparison goods has been discounted by 11.5% (over the figures in Table 2) for the base year of 2010, to exclude non-store retail which includes e-tailing. At 2016, 2021 and 2026, discounts of 13.7%, 13.4% and 13.0% respectively have been assumed. The SFT percentages are derived from in-depth research carried out by Experian (see Appendix 3D). TABLE 4 - TOTAL AVAILABLE COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING)

Total Available Expenditure (£m) (1) Zone Increase (£) (2010- Increase % (2010- 2010 (Base Year) 2016 2021 2026 2026) 2026) Zone 1 79.5 89.3 103.4119.7 40.3 50.7%

Zone 2 21.6 24.2 28.6 33.7 12.2 56.3%

Zone 3 81.9 90.7 104.6 120.7 38.9 47.5%

Zone 4 41.4 53.0 69.9 90.5 49.0 118.4%

Zone 5 37.8 44.7 54.2 65.6 27.8 73.4%

Zone 6 15.6 17.2 19.522.3 6.7 43.0%

Zone 7 41.1 45.6 53.5 62.8 21.7 52.7%

Zone 8 158.7 187.9 222.9269.1 110.4 69.5%

Zone 9 119.1 135.3 162.0 190.9 71.7 60.2%

Zone 10 143.9 161.9 192.7 226.2 82.3 57.2%

Zone 11 115.3 129.3 153.1 179.8 64.5 55.9%

Zone 12 188.1 211.3 251.9 295.7 107.6 57.2%

Zone 13 14.4 16.7 19.7 23.9 9.5 66.2%

Zone 14 88.6 107.4 130.6 163.2 74.6 84.1% TOTAL 1147.0 1314.4 1566.8 1864.0 717.0 62.5%

Notes: (1) Total available expenditure totals for comparison goods are calculated as follows: Population (Table 1) multiplied by consumer expenditure per head a making appropriate reductions for SFT (Table 3). TABLE 5 - TOTAL AVAILABLE COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING) DISAGGREGATED BETWEEN NON BULKY AND BULKY COMPARISON GOODS Non-Bulky Comparison Bulky Comparison Goods (1) Total Comparison Goods (2) Zone Goods (£m) (£m) (£m) A B C = A + B Zone 1 57.6 21.9 79.5

Zone 2 15.6 6.0 21.6

Zone 3 59.1 22.8 81.9

Zone 4 29.8 11.6 41.4

Zone 5 27.5 10.3 37.8

Zone 6 11.3 4.3 15.6

Zone 7 29.6 11.5 41.1

Zone 8 116.2 42.5 158.7

Zone 9 86.6 32.5 119.1

Zone 10 104.9 39.0 143.9

Zone 11 90.5 24.8 115.3

Zone 12 136.4 51.7 188.1

Zone 13 10.2 4.2 14.4

Zone 14 64.3 24.4 88.6 TOTAL 839.5 307.5 1147.0

Notes: (1) For each zone, the total available comparison goods expenditure (excl. SFT) has been disaggregated into available spend on non-bulky and bulky comparison goods. This allocation is based on the consumer expenditure per head data provided by Experian for each zone (see Appendix 3B). (2) Total comparison goods expenditure figures derived from Table 4. TABLE 6a - ESTIMATED NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (COLUMN PERCENT) (1)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent Study Area Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 30.0 20.0 30.0 26.6 47.6 26.8 28.1 6.1 6.4 9.1 33.0 6.7 5.6 27.5 Newport District Centres (2) 1.3 0.6 3.7 0.2 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 Newport Retail Park District Centre 2.8 0.9 18.8 17.7 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.0 4.2 4.5 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 2.6 1.3 4.9 0.4 7.8 3.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 0.0 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.1 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 36.7 22.8 59.8 46.4 63.6 30.0 30.2 7.0 6.4 9.1 36.0 8.4 12.2 32.0 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 63.3 77.2 40.2 53.6 36.4 70.0 69.8 93.0 93.6 90.9 64.0 91.6 87.8 68.0 SUB TOTAL 63.3 77.2 40.2 53.6 36.4 70.0 69.8 93.0 93.6 90.9 64.0 91.6 87.8 68.0

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Notes: (1) The market share percentages are derived from the household telephone survey carried out within Newport City and its shopping hinterland during April/May 2010. (2) Excluding Newport Retail Park District Centre. TABLE 6b - ESTIMATED BULKY COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (COLUMN PERCENT) (1)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent Study Area Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 27.9 19.1 22.3 3.6 2.8 8.2 7.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 27.5 2.6 1.6 27.7 Newport District Centres (2) 3.0 0.0 6.9 50.8 35.1 1.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.6 0.0 14.0 Newport Retail Park District Centre 19.7 15.5 25.4 15.7 1.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2 3.7 3.1 11.3 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 29.0 14.2 22.3 15.6 53.8 46.3 80.5 0.0 4.4 9.4 0.0 3.6 9.8 0.5 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 2.3 1.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 79.6 51.1 78.4 85.7 93.9 55.8 93.8 0.3 4.9 10.5 43.8 10.5 14.5 53.5 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 20.4 48.9 21.6 14.3 6.1 44.2 6.2 99.7 95.1 89.5 56.2 89.5 85.5 46.5 SUB TOTAL 20.4 48.9 21.6 14.3 6.1 44.2 6.2 99.7 95.1 89.5 56.2 89.5 85.5 46.5

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Notes: 1) The market share percentages are derived from the household telephone survey carried out within Newport City and its shopping hinterland during April/May 2010. 2) Excluding Newport Retail Park District Centre. TABLE 7a - ESTIMATED NON BULKY COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Comparison Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 17.3 3.1 17.7 7.9 13.1 3.0 8.3 7.1 5.5 9.5 29.9 9.1 0.6 17.7 149.9 149.9 7.6 157.5 Newport District Centres (2) 0.7 0.1 2.2 0.1 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.1 0.0 6.1 Newport Retail Park District Centre 1.6 0.1 11.1 5.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.4 0.4 2.9 25.9 25.9 0.0 25.9 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 1.5 0.2 2.9 0.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.2 8.2 0.0 8.2 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.6 0.0 2.6 SUB TOTAL 21.1 3.6 35.3 13.8 17.5 3.4 8.9 8.1 5.5 9.5 32.6 11.5 1.2 20.6 192.7 192.7 7.6 200.3 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 36.5 12.0 23.8 16.0 10.0 7.9 20.7 108.1 81.1 95.4 58.0 124.9 8.9 43.7 646.8 SUB TOTAL 36.5 12.0 23.8 16.0 10.0 7.9 20.7 108.1 81.1 95.4 58.0 124.9 8.9 43.7 646.8

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 57.6 15.6 59.1 29.8 27.5 11.3 29.6 116.2 86.6 104.9 90.5 136.4 10.2 64.3 839.5 SURVEY AREA)

Notes: For each cell, the monetary figure is derived by multiplying the 2010 available non-bulky comparison goods expenditure by Zone (excluding SFT) (Table 5) by the non-bulky comparison goods market than of the specific centre in that Zone (Table 6a). (1) Estimated by Colliers International and incorporating CACI data on in-flow visitor and tourist expenditure data to Newport City Centre (2) Excluding Newport Retail Park District Centre TABLE 7b - ESTIMATED BULKY COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Comparison Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 6.1 1.1 5.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 6.8 1.3 0.1 6.8 29.9 29.9 0.0 29.9 Newport District Centres (2) 0.7 0.0 1.6 5.9 3.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.4 15.9 15.9 0.0 15.9 Newport Retail Park District Centre 4.3 0.9 5.8 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.9 0.1 2.8 21.8 21.8 0.0 21.8 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 6.4 0.9 5.1 1.8 5.5 2.0 9.3 0.0 1.4 3.7 0.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 38.4 38.4 0.0 38.4 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.9 SUB TOTAL 17.4 3.1 17.9 9.9 9.7 2.4 10.8 0.1 1.6 4.1 10.9 5.4 0.6 13.0 106.9 106.9 0.0 106.9 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 4.5 2.9 4.9 1.7 0.6 1.9 0.7 42.4 30.9 34.9 13.9 46.3 3.6 11.3 200.6 SUB TOTAL 4.5 2.9 4.9 1.7 0.6 1.9 0.7 42.4 30.9 34.9 13.9 46.3 3.6 11.3 200.6

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 21.9 6.0 22.8 11.6 10.3 4.3 11.5 42.5 32.5 39.0 24.8 51.7 4.2 24.4 307.5 SURVEY AREA)

Notes: For each cell, the monetary figure is derived by multiplying the 2010 available bulky comparison goods expenditure by Zone (excluding SFT) (Table 5) by the bulky comparison goods market than of the specific centre in that Zone (Table 6b). (1) Estimated by Colliers International and incorporating CACI data on inflow worker and tourist expenditure to Newport City Centre, (2) Excludes Newport Retail Park District Centre. TABLE 8 - ESTIMATED ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Expenditure Estimated Total Comparison Benchmark Benchmark Average Sales Extent of Any Drawn From Inflow Comparison Goods Average Sales Comparison Study Area Density (£ per Over / Under Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Expenditure Goods Floorspace Density (£ per Goods sq.m. net) Trading (£m) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) (1) Turnover (sq.m. net) (2) sq.m net) (3) Turnover (£m) SURVEY AREA

Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B D E = C / D F G = F x D H = C - G 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 23.4 4.3 22.8 8.3 13.4 3.4 9.2 7.2 5.7 10.0 36.7 10.5 0.6 24.4 179.9 179.9 7.6 187.5 24,770 7568 5,500 136.2 51.2 Newport District Centres 1.4 0.1 3.8 6.0 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 3.4 22.1 22.1 0.0 22.1 9,153 2410 2,500 22.9 -0.8 Newport Retail Park District Centre 5.9 1.1 16.9 7.1 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.9 3.3 0.6 5.6 47.7 47.7 0.0 47.7 17,535 2721 3,600 63.1 -15.4 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 7.8 1.1 8.0 1.9 7.7 2.3 9.3 0.2 1.4 3.7 0.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 46.6 46.6 0.0 46.6 43,481 1072 2,800 121.7 -75.1 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.4 0.0 3.4 - - - 3.4 0.0 SUB TOTAL 38.6 6.6 53.2 23.8 27.2 5.8 19.7 8.3 7.1 13.6 43.5 16.9 1.8 33.6 299.7 299.7 7.6 307.3 - - - 347.4 -40.1 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 40.9 15.0 28.7 17.6 10.6 9.8 21.4 150.4 112.0 130.3 71.9 171.2 12.5 55.0 847.3 SUB TOTAL 40.9 15.0 28.7 17.6 10.6 9.8 21.4 150.4 112.0 130.3 71.9 171.2 12.5 55.0 847.3

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN 79.5 21.6 81.9 41.4 37.8 15.6 41.1 158.7 119.1 143.9 115.3 188.1 14.4 88.6 1147.0 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY AREA)

Notes: (1) Sum of inflow expenditures at Tables 7a and 7b. (2) Floorpsace estimated from a range of sources (see Appendix 4 for full details). (3) Benchmark sales densities estimated by Colliers International (see Appendix 4 for full details). TABLE 9a - ALL COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE AT THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (COLUMN PERCENT)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent Study Area Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 29.4 19.7 27.9 20.2 35.4 21.7 22.3 4.5 4.8 6.9 31.8 5.6 4.4 27.6 Newport District Centres 1.8 0.4 4.6 14.4 13.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 Newport Retail Park District Centre 7.5 5.0 20.6 17.1 2.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 1.7 3.9 6.4 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 9.9 4.9 9.7 4.7 20.3 15.0 22.5 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.0 1.3 4.6 0.1 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 48.5 30.7 65.0 57.4 71.9 37.1 48.0 5.2 6.0 9.5 37.7 9.0 12.9 37.9 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 51.5 69.3 35.0 42.6 28.1 62.9 52.0 94.8 94.0 90.5 62.3 91.0 87.1 62.1 SUB TOTAL 51.5 69.3 35.0 42.6 28.1 62.9 52.0 94.8 94.0 90.5 62.3 91.0 87.1 62.1

TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Notes: Market share percentages are derived from the figures in Table 8. TABLE 9b - UNADJUSTED ALL COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE AT THE DESIGN YEARS (COLUMN PERCENT)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent Study Area Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 29.4 19.7 27.9 20.2 35.4 21.7 22.3 4.5 4.8 6.9 31.8 5.6 4.4 27.6 Newport District Centres 1.8 0.4 4.6 14.4 13.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 Newport Retail Park District Centre 7.5 5.0 20.6 17.1 2.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 1.7 3.9 6.4 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 9.9 4.9 9.7 4.7 20.3 15.0 22.5 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.0 1.3 4.6 0.1 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 48.5 30.7 65.0 57.4 71.9 37.1 48.0 5.2 6.0 9.5 37.7 9.0 12.9 37.9 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 51.5 69.3 35.0 42.6 28.1 62.9 52.0 94.8 94.0 90.5 62.3 91.0 87.1 62.1 SUB TOTAL 51.5 69.3 35.0 42.6 28.1 62.9 52.0 94.8 94.0 90.5 62.3 91.0 87.1 62.1

TOTAL 100.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Notes: The market shares are the same as those set out in Table 9a. Under Scenario 1, we adopt the traditional 'constant market shares' approach. TABLE 10 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2016 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Comparison Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 26.3 4.8 25.3 10.7 15.8 3.7 10.2 8.5 6.5 11.2 41.1 11.8 0.7 29.6 206.2 206.2 8.4 214.6 Newport District Centres 1.6 0.1 4.2 7.6 6.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 4.1 26.3 26.3 0.0 26.3 Newport Retail Park District Centre 6.7 1.2 18.7 9.1 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.7 3.7 0.6 6.8 55.0 55.0 0.0 55.0 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 8.8 1.2 8.8 2.5 9.1 2.6 10.3 0.3 1.6 4.1 0.0 2.7 0.8 0.1 52.9 52.9 0.0 52.9 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 0.0 3.9 SUB TOTAL 43.4 7.4 58.9 30.4 32.1 6.4 21.9 9.8 8.1 15.3 48.7 19.0 2.1 40.7 344.3 344.3 8.4 352.7 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 46.0 16.8 31.8 22.6 12.6 10.8 23.7 178.1 127.2 146.5 80.6 192.3 14.5 66.7 970.2 SUB TOTAL 46.0 16.8 31.8 22.6 12.6 10.8 23.7 178.1 127.2 146.5 80.6 192.3 14.5 66.7 970.2

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 89.3 24.2 90.7 53.0 44.7 17.2 45.6 187.9 135.3 161.9 129.3 211.3 16.7 107.4 1314.4 SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Notes: For each cell, the monetry figure is derived by multiplying the 2016 available comparison goods expenditure in the zone (excl. SFT) (Table 4) by the adjusted comparison goods market share of the specific centre in that zone (Table 9b). (1) Estimated by Colliers International and incorporating CACI data on in-flow worker and tourist expenditure to Newport City Centre. TABLE 11 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL ALL COMPARISON GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2016 (£ MILLION)

Turnover Allocation for Residual Turnover Potential Headroom 2010 Turnover 2016 Turnover Potential Existing Retailers 2010- Potential by 2016 Expenditure by 2016 2016

Centre ABC (1) D = B - C E = D - A

(Table 8, C) (Table 10, C)

Newport City Centre 187.5 214.6 17.3 197.3 9.8 Newport District Centres 22.1 26.3 2.9 23.4 1.3 Newport Retail Park District Centre 47.7 55.0 8.0 47.0 -0.7 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 46.6 52.9 15.5 37.4 -9.2 All Other Local Centres / Stores 3.4 3.9 0.4 3.5 0.0

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 307.3 352.7 44.2 308.5 1.2

Notes: (1) We assume that all existing comparison goods floorspace at the base year (2010) will achieve a real sales productivity gain over the long term. This assumption is based on research carried out by Experian (see Appendix 3E). The assumed sales productivity gains are applied to the estimated 2010 benchmark comparison goods turnovers of each centre as set out in Table 8 (Column G). TABLE 12 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2016

Reduction in Expenditure Adjustment for Over / due to Comparison Adjusted Residual Estimated Retail Potential Headroom Adjusted Headroom Assumed Sales Density in Under Trading in Base Goods Floorspace Headroom Expenditure by Floorspace Need in 2016 Expenditure by 2016 (£m) Expenditure by 2016 (£m) 2016 (2) (£ per sq.m net) Year (£m) Commitments (as at May 2016 (£m) (sq.m net) Centre 2010) (1)

A B C = A + B D E = C - D F G = E / F

(Table 11, E) (Table 8, H)

Newport City Centre 9.8 51.2 61.0 0.0 61.0 5,636 10,829 Newport District Centres 1.3 -0.8 0.5 0.0 0.5 5,636 87 Newport Retail Park District Centre -0.7 -15.4 -16.1 33.2 -49.3 5,636 -8,756 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores -9.2 -75.1 -84.4 20.5 -104.9 5,636 -18,605 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5,636 11

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 1.2 -40.1 -38.9 53.7 -92.6 -16,435

Notes: (1) Details and estimated 2016 turnovers of comparison goods floorspace commitments and proposals are set out in Appendix 4. (2) The derivation of our 2016 benchmark centre sales density estimates are set out in Section 4. TABLE 13 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2021 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Comparison Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 30.4 5.7 29.1 14.1 19.2 4.2 11.9 10.1 7.8 13.4 48.7 14.0 0.9 36.0 245.5 245.5 10.0 255.5 Newport District Centres 1.8 0.1 4.8 10.0 7.4 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 5.0 32.3 32.3 0.0 32.3 Newport Retail Park District Centre 7.7 1.4 21.6 12.0 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.9 4.4 0.8 8.3 65.9 65.9 0.0 65.9 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 10.2 1.4 10.2 3.3 11.0 2.9 12.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 0.0 3.2 0.9 0.2 62.6 62.6 0.0 62.6 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.2 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 4.6 0.0 4.6 SUB TOTAL 50.2 8.8 68.0 40.1 39.0 7.3 25.7 11.6 9.7 18.3 57.7 22.6 2.5 49.5 410.9 410.9 10.0 420.9 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 53.3 19.8 36.6 29.8 15.3 12.3 27.8 211.3 152.3 174.5 95.4 229.3 17.2 81.1 1155.9 SUB TOTAL 53.3 19.8 36.6 29.8 15.3 12.3 27.8 211.3 152.3 174.5 95.4 229.3 17.2 81.1 1155.9

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 103.4 28.6 104.6 69.9 54.2 19.5 53.5 222.9 162.0 192.7 153.1 251.9 19.7 130.6 1566.8 SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Notes: For each cell, the monetry figure is derived by multiplying the 2021 available comparison goods expenditure in the zone (excl. SFT) (Table 4) by the adjusted comparison goods market share of the specific centre in that zone (Table 9b). (1) Estimated by Colliers International and incorporating CACI data on in-flow worker and tourist expenditure to Newport City Centre. TABLE 14 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL ALL COMPARISON GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2021 (£ MILLION)

Turnover Allocation for Residual Turnover Potential Headroom 2010 Turnover 2021 Turnover Potential Existing Retailers 2010- Potential by 2021 Expenditure by 2021 2021

Centre ABC (1) D = B - C E = D - A

(Table 8, C) (Table 13, C)

Newport City Centre 187.5 255.5 38.4 217.2 29.7 Newport District Centres 22.1 32.3 6.4 25.9 3.8 Newport Retail Park District Centre 47.7 65.9 17.8 48.1 0.4 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 46.6 62.6 34.3 28.3 -18.3 All Other Local Centres / Stores 3.4 4.6 1.0 3.7 0.2

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 307.3 420.9 97.8 323.1 15.8

Reduction in Expenditure Adjustment for Over / due to Comparison Adjusted Residual Estimated Retail Potential Headroom Adjusted Headroom Assumed Sales Density in Under Trading in Base Goods Floorspace Headroom Expenditure by Floorspace Need in 2021 Expenditure by 2021 (£m) Expenditure by 2021 (£m) 2021 (2) (£ per sq.m net) Year (£m) Commitments (as at May 2021 (£m) (sq.m net) Centre 2010) (1)

A B C = A + B D E = C - D F G = E / F

(Table 14, E) (Table 8, H)

Newport City Centre 29.7 51.2 80.9 0.0 80.9 6,408 12,632 Newport District Centres 3.8 -0.8 3.0 0.0 3.0 6,408 464 Newport Retail Park District Centre 0.4 -15.4 -15.0 37.9 -52.9 6,408 -8,257 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores -18.3 -75.1 -93.5 23.3 -116.8 6,408 -18,223 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 6,408 42

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 15.8 -40.1 -24.3 61.2 -85.5 -13,341

Notes: (1) Details and estimated 2021 turnovers of comparison goods floorspace commitments and proposals are set out in Appendix 4. (2) The derivation of our 2021 benchmark centre sales density estimates are set out in Section 4. TABLE 16 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2026 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Comparison Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 35.2 6.7 33.6 18.2 23.2 4.8 14.0 12.2 9.1 15.7 57.2 16.5 1.1 45.0 292.6 292.6 11.9 304.5 Newport District Centres 2.1 0.1 5.5 13.0 8.9 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.1 0.0 6.3 39.7 39.7 0.0 39.7 Newport Retail Park District Centre 8.9 1.7 24.9 15.5 1.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.3 5.2 0.9 10.4 79.0 79.0 0.0 79.0 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 11.8 1.6 11.8 4.2 13.3 3.3 14.1 0.4 2.3 5.8 0.0 3.8 1.1 0.2 73.8 73.8 0.0 73.8 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.2 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 5.5 SUB TOTAL 58.1 10.3 78.5 51.9 47.1 8.3 30.1 14.0 11.4 21.4 67.8 26.5 3.1 61.9 490.5 490.5 11.9 502.4 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 61.7 23.4 42.3 38.5 18.4 14.0 32.7 255.0 179.4 204.7 112.1 269.2 20.8 101.3 1373.5 SUB TOTAL 61.7 23.4 42.3 38.5 18.4 14.0 32.7 255.0 179.4 204.7 112.1 269.2 20.8 101.3 1373.5

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 119.7 33.7 120.7 90.5 65.6 22.3 62.8 269.1 190.9 226.2 179.8 295.7 23.9 163.2 1864.0 SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Notes: For each cell, the monetry figure is derived by multiplying the 2026 available comparison goods expenditure in the zone (excl. SFT) (Table 4) by the adjusted comparison goods market share of the specific centre in that zone (Table 9b). (1) Estimated by Colliers International and incorporating CACI data on in-flow worker and tourist expenditure to Newport City Centre. TABLE 17 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL ALL COMPARISON GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2026 (£ MILLION)

Turnover Allocation for Residual Turnover Potential Headroom 2010 Turnover 2026 Turnover Potential Existing Retailers 2010- Potential by 2026 Expenditure by 2026 2026

Centre ABC (1) D = B - C E = D - A

(Table 8, C) (Table 16, C)

Newport City Centre 187.5 304.5 62.3 242.2 54.7 Newport District Centres 22.1 39.7 10.5 29.2 7.1 Newport Retail Park District Centre 47.7 79.0 28.9 50.1 2.4 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 46.6 73.8 55.6 18.2 -28.4 All Other Local Centres / Stores 3.4 5.5 1.6 3.9 0.5

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 307.3 502.4 158.8 343.6 36.3

Reduction in Expenditure Adjustment for Over / due to Comparison Adjusted Residual Estimated Retail Potential Headroom Adjusted Headroom Assumed Sales Density in Under Trading in Base Goods Floorspace Headroom Expenditure by Floorspace Need in 2026 Expenditure by 2026 (£m) Expenditure by 2026 (£m) 2026 (2) (£ per sq.m net) Year (£m) Commitments (as at May 2026 (£m) (sq.m net) Centre 2010) (1)

A B C = A + B D E = C - D F G = E / F

(Table 17, E) (Table 8, H)

Newport City Centre 54.7 51.2 106.0 0.0 106.0 7,285 14,546 Newport District Centres 7.1 -0.8 6.3 0.0 6.3 7,285 868 Newport Retail Park District Centre 2.4 -15.4 -13.0 43.0 -56.0 7,285 -7,690 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores -28.4 -75.1 -103.6 26.5 -130.1 7,285 -17,856 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 7,285 73

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 36.3 -40.1 -3.8 69.5 -73.3 -10,060

Notes: (1) Details and estimated 2026 turnovers of comparison goods floorspace commitments and proposals are set out in Appendix 4. (2) The derivation of our 2026 benchmark centre sales density estimates are set out in Section 4.

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 5C

The Need for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace: Scenario 2 (Adjusted Market Shares Approach)

SCENARIO 2: RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT: COMPARISON GOODS (INCORPORATING ESTIMATES OF (ANY) UNDER / OVER TRADING AT THE BASE YEAR, 2010)

CONTENTS

TABLE 1 - POPULATION CHANGE BY ZONE

TABLE 9a - ALL COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE AT THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (COLUMN PERCENT)

TABLE 9b - ADJUSTED ALL COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE AT THE DESIGN YEARS (COLUMN PERCENT)

TABLE 10 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2016 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 11 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL ALL COMPARISON GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2016 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 12 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2016

TABLE 13 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2021 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 14 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL ALL COMPARISON GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2021 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 15 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2021

TABLE 16 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2026 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 17 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL ALL COMPARISON GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2026 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 18 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2026 TABLE 1 - POPULATION CHANGE BY ZONE

Total Percentage 2010 Population Zone 2016 Population 2021 Population 2026 Population Increase Increase (Base Year) (2010-2026) (2010-2026) Zone 1 35,663 35,949 36,121 36,263 600 1.7%

Zone 2 8,303 8,365 8,568 8,758 455 5.5%

Zone 3 39,521 39,238 39,294 39,321 -200 -0.5%

Zone 4 17,711 20,316 23,269 26,101 8,390 47.4%

Zone 5 19,366 20,515 21,616 22,663 3,297 17.0%

Zone 6 5,561 5,502 5,435 5,366 -195 -3.5%

Zone 7 15,807 15,703 16,004 16,285 478 3.0%

Zone 8 70,445 74,756 76,997 80,581 10,136 14.4%

Zone 9 52,950 53,914 56,022 57,230 4,280 8.1%

Zone 10 67,874 68,462 70,747 71,981 4,107 6.1%

Zone 11 56,424 56,709 58,280 59,353 2,929 5.2%

Zone 12 87,826 88,467 91,539 93,172 5,346 6.1%

Zone 13 5,514 5,745 5,886 6,182 668 12.1%

Zone 14 36,140 39,246 41,445 44,895 8,755 24.2% TOTAL 519,105 532,887 551,223 568,151 49,046 9.4%

Expenditure Per Head (£) (1) Zone Increase (£) Increase % 2008 2010 (Base Year) 2016 2021 2026 (2010-2026) (2010-2026) Zone 1 2,500 2,517 2,880 3,306 3,795 1,278 50.8%

Zone 2 2,916 2,936 3,359 3,856 4,427 1,491 50.8%

Zone 3 2,325 2,341 2,678 3,074 3,530 1,189 50.8%

Zone 4 2,624 2,642 3,022 3,470 3,984 1,341 50.8%

Zone 5 2,190 2,205 2,522 2,896 3,325 1,119 50.8%

Zone 6 3,141 3,163 3,618 4,154 4,768 1,606 50.8%

Zone 7 2,919 2,939 3,362 3,860 4,431 1,492 50.8%

Zone 8 2,5282,546 2,912 3,343 3,838 1,292 50.8%

Zone 9 2,525 2,543 2,908 3,339 3,833 1,291 50.8%

Zone 10 2,379 2,396 2,740 3,146 3,612 1,216 50.8%

Zone 11 2,294 2,310 2,642 3,033 3,483 1,173 50.8%

Zone 12 2,403 2,420 2,768 3,178 3,648 1,228 50.8%

Zone 13 2,923 2,943 3,367 3,865 4,438 1,494 50.8%

Zone 14 2,752 2,771 3,170 3,639 4,178 1,407 50.8%

Expenditure Per Head (£) (1) Zone Increase (£) (2010- Increase % (2010- 2010 (Base Year) 2016 2021 2026 2026) 2026) Zone 1 2,228 2,485 2,863 3,302 1,074 48.2%

Zone 2 2,599 2,899 3,339 3,851 1,253 48.2%

Zone 3 2,072 2,311 2,662 3,071 999 48.2%

Zone 4 2,338 2,608 3,005 3,466 1,127 48.2%

Zone 5 1,952 2,177 2,508 2,893 941 48.2%

Zone 6 2,799 3,122 3,597 4,149 1,349 48.2%

Zone 7 2,601 2,902 3,343 3,855 1,254 48.2%

Zone 8 2,253 2,513 2,895 3,339 1,086 48.2%

Zone 9 2,250 2,510 2,892 3,335 1,085 48.2%

Zone 10 2,120 2,365 2,724 3,142 1,022 48.2%

Zone 11 2,044 2,280 2,627 3,030 986 48.2%

Zone 12 2,141 2,389 2,752 3,174 1,032 48.2%

Zone 13 2,605 2,905 3,347 3,861 1,256 48.2%

Zone 14 2,452 2,736 3,151 3,635 1,182 48.2%

Total Available Expenditure (£m) (1) Zone Increase (£) (2010- Increase % (2010- 2010 (Base Year) 2016 2021 2026 2026) 2026) Zone 1 79.5 89.3 103.4119.7 40.3 50.7%

Zone 2 21.6 24.2 28.6 33.7 12.2 56.3%

Zone 3 81.9 90.7 104.6 120.7 38.9 47.5%

Zone 4 41.4 53.0 69.9 90.5 49.0 118.4%

Zone 5 37.8 44.7 54.2 65.6 27.8 73.4%

Zone 6 15.6 17.2 19.5 22.3 6.7 43.0%

Zone 7 41.1 45.6 53.5 62.8 21.7 52.7%

Zone 8 158.7 187.9 222.9269.1 110.4 69.5%

Zone 9 119.1 135.3 162.0 190.9 71.7 60.2%

Zone 10 143.9 161.9 192.7 226.2 82.3 57.2%

Zone 11 115.3 129.3 153.1 179.8 64.5 55.9%

Zone 12 188.1 211.3 251.9 295.7 107.6 57.2%

Zone 13 14.4 16.7 19.7 23.9 9.5 66.2%

Zone 14 88.6 107.4 130.6 163.2 74.6 84.1% TOTAL 1147.0 1314.4 1566.8 1864.0 717.0 62.5%

Zone 2 15.6 6.0 21.6

Zone 3 59.1 22.8 81.9

Zone 4 29.8 11.6 41.4

Zone 5 27.5 10.3 37.8

Zone 6 11.3 4.3 15.6

Zone 7 29.6 11.5 41.1

Zone 8 116.2 42.5 158.7

Zone 9 86.6 32.5 119.1

Zone 10 104.9 39.0 143.9

Zone 11 90.5 24.8 115.3

Zone 12 136.4 51.7 188.1

Zone 13 10.2 4.2 14.4

Zone 14 64.3 24.4 88.6 TOTAL 839.5 307.5 1147.0

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent Study Area Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 27.9 19.1 22.3 3.6 2.8 8.2 7.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 27.5 2.6 1.6 27.7 Newport District Centres (2) 3.0 0.0 6.9 50.8 35.1 1.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.6 0.0 14.0 Newport Retail Park District Centre 19.7 15.5 25.4 15.7 1.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2 3.7 3.1 11.3 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 29.0 14.2 22.3 15.6 53.8 46.3 80.5 0.0 4.4 9.4 0.0 3.6 9.8 0.5 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 2.3 1.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 79.6 51.1 78.4 85.7 93.9 55.8 93.8 0.3 4.9 10.5 43.8 10.5 14.5 53.5 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 20.4 48.9 21.6 14.3 6.1 44.2 6.2 99.7 95.1 89.5 56.2 89.5 85.5 46.5 SUB TOTAL 20.4 48.9 21.6 14.3 6.1 44.2 6.2 99.7 95.1 89.5 56.2 89.5 85.5 46.5

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 57.6 15.6 59.1 29.8 27.5 11.3 29.6 116.2 86.6 104.9 90.5 136.4 10.2 64.3 839.5 SURVEY AREA)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Comparison Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 6.1 1.1 5.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 6.8 1.3 0.1 6.8 29.9 29.9 0.0 29.9 Newport District Centres (2) 0.7 0.0 1.6 5.9 3.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.4 15.9 15.9 0.0 15.9 Newport Retail Park District Centre 4.3 0.9 5.8 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.9 0.1 2.8 21.8 21.8 0.0 21.8 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 6.4 0.9 5.1 1.8 5.5 2.0 9.3 0.0 1.4 3.7 0.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 38.4 38.4 0.0 38.4 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.9 SUB TOTAL 17.4 3.1 17.9 9.9 9.7 2.4 10.8 0.1 1.6 4.1 10.9 5.4 0.6 13.0 106.9 106.9 0.0 106.9 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 4.5 2.9 4.9 1.7 0.6 1.9 0.7 42.4 30.9 34.9 13.9 46.3 3.6 11.3 200.6 SUB TOTAL 4.5 2.9 4.9 1.7 0.6 1.9 0.7 42.4 30.9 34.9 13.9 46.3 3.6 11.3 200.6

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 21.9 6.0 22.8 11.6 10.3 4.3 11.5 42.5 32.5 39.0 24.8 51.7 4.2 24.4 307.5 SURVEY AREA)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN 79.5 21.6 81.9 41.4 37.8 15.6 41.1 158.7 119.1 143.9 115.3 188.1 14.4 88.6 1147.0 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY AREA)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent Study Area Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 29.4 19.7 27.9 20.2 35.4 21.7 22.3 4.5 4.8 6.9 31.8 5.6 4.4 27.6 Newport District Centres 1.8 0.4 4.6 14.4 13.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 Newport Retail Park District Centre 7.5 5.0 20.6 17.1 2.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 1.7 3.9 6.4 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 9.9 4.9 9.7 4.7 20.3 15.0 22.5 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.0 1.3 4.6 0.1 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 48.5 30.7 65.0 57.4 71.9 37.1 48.0 5.2 6.0 9.5 37.7 9.0 12.9 37.9 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 51.5 69.3 35.0 42.6 28.1 62.9 52.0 94.8 94.0 90.5 62.3 91.0 87.1 62.1 SUB TOTAL 51.5 69.3 35.0 42.6 28.1 62.9 52.0 94.8 94.0 90.5 62.3 91.0 87.1 62.1

TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Notes: Market share percentages are derived from the figures in Table 8. TABLE 9b - ADJUSTED ALL COMPARISON GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE AT THE DESIGN YEARS (COLUMN PERCENT)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent Study Area Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 45.0 40.0 40.0 35.0 40.0 30.0 30.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 34.0 9.0 8.0 30.0 Newport District Centres 1.8 0.4 4.6 14.4 13.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 Newport Retail Park District Centre 7.5 5.0 20.6 17.1 2.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 1.7 3.9 6.4 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 9.9 4.9 9.7 4.7 20.3 15.0 22.5 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.0 1.3 4.6 0.1 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 64.1 50.9 77.1 72.2 76.5 45.5 55.7 5.7 6.2 9.5 39.9 12.4 16.4 40.4 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 35.9 54.1 27.9 32.8 23.5 59.5 49.3 94.3 93.8 90.5 60.1 87.6 83.6 59.6 SUB TOTAL 35.9 49.1 22.9 27.8 23.5 54.5 44.3 94.3 93.8 90.5 60.1 87.6 83.6 59.6

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Notes: The market shares have been adjusted from those set out in Table 9a in order to reflect the real scope that exists for Newport City Centre to enhance the quantity and quality of its retail offer. TABLE 10 - ALL COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2016 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Comparison Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 40.2 9.7 36.3 18.5 17.9 5.2 13.7 9.4 6.8 11.3 44.0 19.0 1.3 32.2 265.4 265.4 8.4 273.8 Newport District Centres 1.6 0.1 4.2 7.6 6.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 4.1 26.3 26.3 0.0 26.3 Newport Retail Park District Centre 6.7 1.2 18.7 9.1 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.7 3.7 0.6 6.8 55.0 55.0 0.0 55.0 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 8.8 1.2 8.8 2.5 9.1 2.6 10.3 0.3 1.6 4.1 0.0 2.7 0.8 0.1 52.9 52.9 0.0 52.9 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 0.0 3.9 SUB TOTAL 57.3 12.3 69.9 38.3 34.1 7.8 25.4 10.6 8.4 15.5 51.5 26.2 2.7 43.3 403.5 403.5 8.4 411.9 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 32.1 13.1 25.3 17.4 10.5 10.2 22.5 177.1 126.9 146.5 77.7 185.1 14.0 64.0 922.4 SUB TOTAL 32.1 13.1 25.3 17.4 10.5 10.2 22.5 177.1 126.9 146.5 77.7 185.1 14.0 64.0 922.4

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 89.3 24.2 90.7 53.0 44.7 17.2 45.6 187.9 135.3 161.9 129.3 211.3 16.7 107.4 1314.4 SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Turnover Allocation for Residual Turnover Potential Headroom 2010 Turnover 2016 Turnover Potential Existing Retailers 2010- Potential by 2016 Expenditure by 2016 2016

Centre ABC (1) D = B - C E = D - A

(Table 8, C) (Table 10, C)

Newport City Centre 187.5 273.8 17.3 256.5 69.0 Newport District Centres 22.1 26.3 2.9 23.4 1.3 Newport Retail Park District Centre 47.7 55.0 8.0 47.0 -0.7 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 46.6 52.9 15.5 37.4 -9.2 All Other Local Centres / Stores 3.4 3.9 0.4 3.5 0.0

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 307.3 411.9 44.2 367.7 60.4

A B C = A + B D E = C - D F G = E / F

(Table 11, E) (Table 8, H)

Newport City Centre 69.0 51.2 120.3 0.0 120.3 5,636 21,337 Newport District Centres 1.3 -0.8 0.5 0.0 0.5 5,636 87 Newport Retail Park District Centre -0.7 -15.4 -16.1 33.2 -49.3 5,636 -8,756 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores -9.2 -75.1 -84.4 20.5 -104.9 5,636 -18,605 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5,636 11

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 60.4 -40.1 20.3 53.7 -33.4 -5,926

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Comparison Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 46.5 11.4 41.8 24.5 21.7 5.9 16.0 11.1 8.1 13.5 52.1 22.7 1.6 39.2 316.1 316.1 10.0 326.1 Newport District Centres 1.8 0.1 4.8 10.0 7.4 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 5.0 32.3 32.3 0.0 32.3 Newport Retail Park District Centre 7.7 1.4 21.6 12.0 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.9 4.4 0.8 8.3 65.9 65.9 0.0 65.9 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 10.2 1.4 10.2 3.3 11.0 2.9 12.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 0.0 3.2 0.9 0.2 62.6 62.6 0.0 62.6 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.2 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 4.6 0.0 4.6 SUB TOTAL 66.3 14.6 80.7 50.5 41.5 8.9 29.8 12.6 10.0 18.4 61.0 31.2 3.2 52.7 481.5 481.5 10.0 491.5 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 53.3 19.8 36.6 29.8 15.3 12.3 27.8 211.3 152.3 174.5 95.4 229.3 17.2 81.1 1155.9 SUB TOTAL 53.3 19.8 36.6 29.8 15.3 12.3 27.8 211.3 152.3 174.5 95.4 229.3 17.2 81.1 1155.9

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 103.4 28.6 104.6 69.9 54.2 19.5 53.5 222.9 162.0 192.7 153.1 251.9 19.7 130.6 1566.8 SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Turnover Allocation for Residual Turnover Potential Headroom 2010 Turnover 2021 Turnover Potential Existing Retailers 2010- Potential by 2021 Expenditure by 2021 2021

Centre ABC (1) D = B - C E = D - A

(Table 8, C) (Table 13, C)

Newport City Centre 187.5 326.1 38.4 287.8 100.3 Newport District Centres 22.1 32.3 6.4 25.9 3.8 Newport Retail Park District Centre 47.7 65.9 17.8 48.1 0.4 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 46.6 62.6 34.3 28.3 -18.3 All Other Local Centres / Stores 3.4 4.6 1.0 3.7 0.2

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 307.3 491.5 97.8 393.7 86.4

Reduction in Expenditure Adjustment for Over / due to Comparison Adjusted Residual Estimated Retail Potential Headroom Adjusted Headroom Assumed Sales Density in Under Trading in Base Goods Floorspace Headroom Expenditure by Floorspace Need in 2021 Expenditure by 2021 (£m) Expenditure by 2021 (£m) 2021 (2) (£ per sq.m net) Year (£m) Commitments (as at May 2021 (£m) (sq.m net) Centre 2010) (1)

A B C = A + B D E = C - D F G = E / F

(Table 14, E) (Table 8, H)

Newport City Centre 100.3 51.2 151.5 0.0 151.5 6,408 23,646 Newport District Centres 3.8 -0.8 3.0 0.0 3.0 6,408 464 Newport Retail Park District Centre 0.4 -15.4 -15.0 37.9 -52.9 6,408 -8,257 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores -18.3 -75.1 -93.5 23.3 -116.8 6,408 -18,223 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 6,408 42

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 86.4 -40.1 46.3 61.2 -14.9 -2,327

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Comparison Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 53.9 13.5 48.3 31.7 26.2 6.7 18.8 13.5 9.5 15.8 61.1 26.6 1.9 49.0 376.5 376.5 11.9 388.4 Newport District Centres 2.1 0.1 5.5 13.0 8.9 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.1 0.0 6.3 39.7 39.7 0.0 39.7 Newport Retail Park District Centre 8.9 1.7 24.9 15.5 1.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.3 5.2 0.9 10.4 79.0 79.0 0.0 79.0 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 11.8 1.6 11.8 4.2 13.3 3.3 14.1 0.4 2.3 5.8 0.0 3.8 1.1 0.2 73.8 73.8 0.0 73.8 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.0 0.2 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 5.5 SUB TOTAL 76.8 17.2 93.1 65.4 50.1 10.1 35.0 15.2 11.8 21.6 71.7 36.7 3.9 65.9 574.4 574.4 11.9 586.3 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 61.7 23.4 42.3 38.5 18.4 14.0 32.7 255.0 179.4 204.7 112.1 269.2 20.8 101.3 1373.5 SUB TOTAL 61.7 23.4 42.3 38.5 18.4 14.0 32.7 255.0 179.4 204.7 112.1 269.2 20.8 101.3 1373.5

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 119.7 33.7 120.7 90.5 65.6 22.3 62.8 269.1 190.9 226.2 179.8 295.7 23.9 163.2 1864.0 SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Turnover Allocation for Residual Turnover Potential Headroom 2010 Turnover 2026 Turnover Potential Existing Retailers 2010- Potential by 2026 Expenditure by 2026 2026

Centre ABC (1) D = B - C E = D - A

(Table 8, C) (Table 16, C)

Newport City Centre 187.5 388.4 62.3 326.2 138.7 Newport District Centres 22.1 39.7 10.5 29.2 7.1 Newport Retail Park District Centre 47.7 79.0 28.9 50.1 2.4 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores 46.6 73.8 55.6 18.2 -28.4 All Other Local Centres / Stores 3.4 5.5 1.6 3.9 0.5

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 307.3 586.3 158.8 427.6 120.3

Reduction in Expenditure Adjustment for Over / due to Comparison Adjusted Residual Estimated Retail Potential Headroom Adjusted Headroom Assumed Sales Density in Under Trading in Base Goods Floorspace Headroom Expenditure by Floorspace Need in 2026 Expenditure by 2026 (£m) Expenditure by 2026 (£m) 2026 (2) (£ per sq.m net) Year (£m) Commitments (as at May 2026 (£m) (sq.m net) Centre 2010) (1)

A B C = A + B D E = C - D F G = E / F

(Table 17, E) (Table 8, H)

Newport City Centre 138.7 51.2 189.9 0.0 189.9 7,285 26,069 Newport District Centres 7.1 -0.8 6.3 0.0 6.3 7,285 868 Newport Retail Park District Centre 2.4 -15.4 -13.0 43.0 -56.0 7,285 -7,690 Out of Centre Retail Warehouses / Superstores -28.4 -75.1 -103.6 26.5 -130.1 7,285 -17,856 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 7,285 73

TOTAL: NEWPORT CITY 120.3 -40.1 80.2 69.5 10.7 1,464

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 5D

The Need for Additional Convenience Goods Floorspace

SCENARIO 1: RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT: CONVENIENCE GOODS (INCORPORATING ESTIMATES OF (ANY) UNDER / OVER TRADING AT THE BASE YEAR, 2010)

CONTENTS

TABLE 1 - POPULATION CHANGE BY ZONE

TABLE 2 - EXPENDITURE ON CONVENIENCE GOODS PER HEAD OF POPULATION BY ZONE (INCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING) TABLE 3 - EXPENDITURE ON CONVENIENCE GOODS PER HEAD OF POPULATION BY ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING) TABLE 4 - TOTAL AVAILABLE CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING)

TABLE 5 - CONVENIENCE GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (COLUMN PERCENT) (1)

TABLE 6 - ESTIMATED CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (£ MILLION) TABLE 7 - UNADJUSTED CONVENIENCE GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE AT THE DESIGN YEARS (COLUMN PERCENT)

TABLE 8 - CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2016 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 9 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL CONVENIENCE GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2016 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 10 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2016

TABLE 11 - CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2021 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 12 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL CONVENIENCE GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2021 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 13 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2021

TABLE 14 - CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2026 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 15 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL CONVENIENCE GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2026 (£ MILLION)

TABLE 16 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2026 TABLE 1 - POPULATION CHANGE BY ZONE

Total Percentage 2010 Population Zone 2016 Population 2021 Population 2026 Population Increase Increase (Base Year) (2010-2026) (2010-2026) Zone 1 35,663 35,949 36,121 36,263 600 1.7%

Zone 2 8,303 8,365 8,568 8,758 455 5.5%

Zone 3 39,521 39,23839,294 39,321 -200 -0.5%

Zone 4 17,711 20,316 23,269 26,101 8,390 47.4%

Zone 5 19,366 20,515 21,616 22,663 3,297 17.0%

Zone 6 5,561 5,502 5,435 5,366 -195 -3.5%

Zone 7 15,807 15,703 16,004 16,285 478 3.0%

Zone 8 70,445 74,756 76,997 80,581 10,136 14.4%

Zone 9 52,950 53,914 56,022 57,230 4,280 8.1%

Zone 10 67,874 68,462 70,747 71,981 4,107 6.1%

Zone 11 56,424 56,709 58,280 59,353 2,929 5.2%

Zone 12 87,826 88,467 91,539 93,172 5,346 6.1%

Zone 13 5,514 5,745 5,886 6,182 668 12.1%

Zone 14 36,140 39,246 41,445 44,895 8,755 24.2% TOTAL 519,105 532,887 551,223 568,151 49,046 9.4%

Notes: Population projections for all years and zones have been provided by Experian. For zones 1 to 7 inclusive (those zones within Newport City), the Experian populations have been adjusted on a zone by zone basis to reflect the relatively substantial planned house building programme in the city (the methodology for carrying out the adjustments is set out in Appendix 2). TABLE 2 - EXPENDITURE ON CONVENIENCE GOODS PER HEAD OF POPULATION BY ZONE (INCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING)

Expenditure Per Head (£) (1) Zone Increase (£) Increase % 2008 2010 (Base Year) 2016 2021 2026 (2010-2026) (2010-2026) Zone 1 1,766 1,754 1,836 1,920 2,008 254 14.5%

Zone 2 1,911 1,898 1,987 2,078 2,173 275 14.5%

Zone 3 1,712 1,700 1,780 1,861 1,947 247 14.5%

Zone 4 1,846 1,833 1,919 2,007 2,099 266 14.5%

Zone 5 1,677 1,665 1,743 1,823 1,907 241 14.5%

Zone 6 2,016 2,002 2,096 2,192 2,292 290 14.5%

Zone 7 1,911 1,898 1,987 2,078 2,173 275 14.5%

Zone 8 1,7831,771 1,854 1,938 2,027 257 14.5%

Zone 9 1,788 1,776 1,859 1,944 2,033 257 14.5%

Zone 10 1,748 1,736 1,817 1,900 1,988 252 14.5%

Zone 11 1,730 1,718 1,798 1,881 1,967 249 14.5%

Zone 12 1,765 1,753 1,835 1,919 2,007 254 14.5%

Zone 13 1,907 1,894 1,982 2,073 2,168 275 14.5%

Zone 14 1,848 1,835 1,921 2,009 2,101 266 14.5%

Notes: (1) Average consumer expenditure per head on convenience goods for 2008 has been estimated by Experian for each zone. The 2008 expenditure per head figures in each zone have been projected forwards to 2010 (the base year) and the forecast years of 2016, 2021 and 2026 by using UK expenditure per head growth forecasts provided by Experian (see Appendix 3C). TABLE 3 - EXPENDITURE ON CONVENIENCE GOODS PER HEAD OF POPULATION BY ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING)

Expenditure Per Head (£) (1) Zone Increase (£) (2010- 2010 (Base Year) 2016 2021 2026 Increase % (2010-2026) 2026) Zone 1 1,675 1,731 1,807 1,883 209 12.5%

Zone 2 1,812 1,873 1,955 2,038 226 12.5%

Zone 3 1,624 1,678 1,751 1,826 202 12.5%

Zone 4 1,751 1,810 1,889 1,969 218 12.5%

Zone 5 1,590 1,644 1,716 1,789 198 12.5%

Zone 6 1,9121,976 2,062 2,150 238 12.5%

Zone 7 1,812 1,873 1,955 2,038 226 12.5%

Zone 8 1,691 1,748 1,824 1,902 211 12.5%

Zone 9 1,696 1,753 1,829 1,907 211 12.5%

Zone 10 1,658 1,714 1,788 1,864 207 12.5%

Zone 11 1,641 1,696 1,770 1,845 204 12.5%

Zone 12 1,674 1,730 1,806 1,882 209 12.5%

Zone 13 1,808 1,869 1,951 2,034 225 12.5%

Zone 14 1,753 1,812 1,891 1,971 218 12.5%

Notes: (1) Expenditure per head on convenience goods has been discounted by 4.5% (over the figures in Table 2) for the base year of 2010, to exclude non store retail which includes e-tailing. At 2016, 2021 and 2016 discounts of 5.7%, 5.9% and 6.2% respectively have been assumed. The SFT percentages are derived from in-depth research carried out by Experian (see Appendix 3D). TABLE 4 - TOTAL AVAILABLE CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE ZONE (EXCLUDING EXPENDITURE BY SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING)

Total Available Expenditure (£m) (1) Zone Increase (£) (2010- Increase % (2010- 2010 (Base Year) 2016 2021 2026 2026) 2026) Zone 1 59.7 62.2 65.368.3 8.6 14.4%

Zone 2 15.0 15.7 16.8 17.8 2.8 18.6%

Zone 3 64.2 65.9 68.8 71.8 7.6 11.9%

Zone 4 31.0 36.8 43.9 51.4 20.4 65.7%

Zone 5 30.8 33.7 37.1 40.5 9.7 31.6%

Zone 6 10.6 10.9 11.211.5 0.9 8.5%

Zone 7 28.6 29.4 31.3 33.2 4.5 15.9%

Zone 8 119.1 130.7 140.5153.2 34.1 28.6%

Zone 9 89.8 94.5 102.5 109.1 19.4 21.6%

Zone 10 112.5 117.3 126.5 134.2 21.7 19.3%

Zone 11 92.6 96.2 103.1 109.5 16.9 18.3%

Zone 12 147.0 153.1 165.3 175.4 28.4 19.3%

Zone 13 10.0 10.7 11.5 12.6 2.6 26.1%

Zone 14 63.3 71.1 78.4 88.5 25.1 39.7% TOTAL 874.3 928.1 1002.1 1077.1 202.8 23.2%

Notes: (1) Total available expenditure totals for convenience goods are calculated as follows: Population (Table 1) multiplied by consumer expenditure per head after making appropriate reductions for SFT (Table 3). TABLE 5 - CONVENIENCE GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (COLUMN PERCENT) (1)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent Study Area Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 4.8 4.6 3.5 3.6 9.7 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Newport District Centres (2) 2.7 6.0 12.3 9.4 15.5 0.0 3.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.0 Newport Retail Park District Centre 0.0 8.9 48.2 51.9 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.6 7.1 11.0 Out of Centre Superstores 77.0 36.1 25.9 14.9 71.0 53.6 83.5 10.2 0.0 0.0 10.2 4.2 11.3 9.3 All Other Local Centres / Stores 3.6 2.3 8.1 6.4 0.7 2.7 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 88.1 57.9 98.0 86.2 96.9 56.6 94.5 10.8 0.0 0.0 12.9 5.9 18.4 21.3 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 11.9 42.1 2.0 13.8 3.1 43.4 5.5 89.2 100.0 100.0 87.1 94.1 81.6 78.7 SUB TOTAL 11.9 42.1 2.0 13.8 3.1 43.4 5.5 89.2 100.0 100.0 87.1 94.1 81.6 78.7

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Notes: (1) The market share percentages are derived from the household telephone survey carried out within Newport City and its shopping hinterland during April/May 2010. (2) Excluding Newport Retail Park District Centre. TABLE 6 - ESTIMATED CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES IN THE BASE YEAR, 2010 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Expenditure Estimated Total Convenience Benchmark Benchmark Average Sales Extent of Any Drawn From Inflow Convenience Goods Average Sales Convenience Study Area Density (£ per Over / Under Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Expenditure Goods Floorspace Density (£ per Goods sq.m. net) Trading (£m) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) (1) Turnover (sq.m. net) (2) sq.m net) (3) Turnover (£m) SURVEY AREA

Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B D E = C / D F G = F x D H = C - G 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 2.9 0.7 2.2 1.1 3.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 11.1 12.6 23.7 4,807 4,933 5,000 24.0 -0.3 Newport District Centres 1.6 0.9 7.9 2.9 4.8 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.6 21.9 21.9 0.0 21.9 9,736 2,248 4,000 38.9 -17.1 Newport Retail Park District Centre 0.0 1.3 30.9 16.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.9 0.7 7.0 59.7 59.7 0.0 59.7 4,065 14,696 9,370 38.1 21.7 Out of Centre Superstores 46.0 5.4 16.6 4.6 21.9 5.7 23.9 12.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 6.2 1.1 5.9 158.9 158.9 0.0 158.9 13,261 11,985 11,620 154.1 4.8 All Other Local Centres / Stores 2.2 0.3 5.2 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 11.0 0.0 11.0 - - - 11.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 52.6 8.7 62.9 26.7 29.8 6.0 27.1 12.9 0.0 0.0 11.9 8.7 1.8 13.5 262.7 262.7 12.6 275.3 - - - 266.2 9.1 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 7.1 6.3 1.3 4.3 1.0 4.6 1.6 106.2 89.8 112.5 80.6 138.3 8.1 49.8 611.6 SUB TOTAL 7.1 6.3 1.3 4.3 1.0 4.6 1.6 106.2 89.8 112.5 80.6 138.3 8.1 49.8 611.6

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN 59.7 15.0 64.2 31.0 30.8 10.6 28.6 119.1 89.8 112.5 92.6 147.0 10.0 63.3 874.3 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Notes: (1) Estimated by Colliers International. Inflow spend to Newport City Centre includes £0.4 million of spend from tourists and £12.2 million of spend from workers (Source: CACI). We assume no inflow spend from residents living outside the survey area. We also assume no inflow spend from any source to the District Centres and other stores within the city. (2) Floorspace figures derived from a number of sources (see Appendix 4 for full details). (3) Benchmark sales densities estimated by Colliers International (see Appendix 4 for full details). TABLE 7 - UNADJUSTED CONVENIENCE GOODS CENTRE MARKET SHARES BY ZONE AT THE DESIGN YEARS (COLUMN PERCENT)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone)

Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent Study Area Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 4.8 4.6 3.5 3.6 9.7 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Newport District Centres 2.7 6.0 12.3 9.4 15.5 0.0 3.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.0 Newport Retail Park District Centre 0.0 8.9 48.2 51.9 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.6 7.1 11.0 Out of Centre Superstores 77.0 36.1 25.9 14.9 71.0 53.6 83.5 10.2 0.0 0.0 10.2 4.2 11.3 9.3 All Other Local Centres / Stores 3.6 2.3 8.1 6.4 0.7 2.7 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SUB TOTAL 88.1 57.9 98.0 86.2 96.9 56.6 94.5 10.8 0.0 0.0 12.9 5.9 18.4 21.3 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 11.9 42.1 2.0 13.8 3.1 43.4 5.5 89.2 100.0 100.0 87.1 94.1 81.6 78.7 SUB TOTAL 11.9 42.1 2.0 13.8 3.1 43.4 5.5 89.2 100.0 100.0 87.1 94.1 81.6 78.7

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Notes: The market shares are the same as those set out in Table 5. Under Scenario 1, we adopt the traditional 'constant market shares' approach. TABLE 8 - CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2016 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Convenience Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 A B C = A + B 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 3.0 0.7 2.3 1.3 3.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9 11.9 12.6 24.5 Newport District Centres 1.7 0.9 8.1 3.5 5.2 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.7 23.4 23.4 0.0 23.4 Newport Retail Park District Centre 0.0 1.4 31.7 19.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.9 0.8 7.8 64.6 64.6 0.0 64.6 Out of Centre Superstores 47.9 5.7 17.1 5.5 23.9 5.8 24.6 13.3 0.0 0.0 9.8 6.4 1.2 6.6 167.8 167.8 0.0 167.8 All Other Local Centres / Stores 2.2 0.4 5.3 2.4 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 11.7 0.0 11.7 SUB TOTAL 54.8 9.1 64.5 31.7 32.7 6.2 27.8 14.1 0.0 0.0 12.4 9.0 2.0 15.1 279.4 279.4 12.6 292.0 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 7.4 6.6 1.3 5.1 1.0 4.7 1.6 116.6 94.5 117.3 83.8 144.0 8.8 56.0 648.7 SUB TOTAL 7.4 6.6 1.3 5.1 1.0 4.7 1.6 116.6 94.5 117.3 83.8 144.0 8.8 56.0 648.7

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 62.2 15.7 65.9 36.8 33.7 10.9 29.4 130.7 94.5 117.3 96.2 153.1 10.7 71.1 928.1 SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Notes: For each cell, the monetary figure is derived by multiplying the 2016 available convenience goods expenditure in the zone (excl. SFT) (Table 4) by the unadjusted convenience goods market share of the specific centre in that zone (Table 7). (1) Estimated by Colliers International and incoprporating CACI data on in-inflow worker and tourist expenditure to Newport City Centre. TABLE 9 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL CONVENIENCE GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2016 (£ MILLION)

Turnover Allocation for Residual Turnover Potential Headroom 2010 Turnover 2016 Turnover Potential Existing Retailers 2010- Potential by 2016 Expenditure by 2016 2016

Centre ABC (1) D = B - C E = D - A

(Table 6, C) (Table 8, C)

Newport City Centre 23.7 24.5 0.8 23.7 0.0 Newport District Centres 21.9 23.4 1.2 22.2 0.3 Newport Retail Park District Centre 59.7 64.6 1.2 63.4 3.7 Out of Centre Superstores 158.9 167.8 4.8 163.0 4.1 All Other Local Centres / Stores 11.0 11.7 0.3 11.3 0.3

TOTAL 275.3 292.0 8.4 283.7 8.4

Notes: (1) We assume that all existing convenience goods floorspace at the base year (2010) will achieve a real sales productivity gain over the long term. This assumption is based on research carried out by Experian (see Appendix 3E). The assumed sales productivity gains are applied to the estimated 2010 benchmark convenience goods turnovers of each centre as set out in Table 6 (Column G). TABLE 10 - RETAIL FLOORSPACE CAPACITY AT 2016

Reduction in Expenditure Adjustment for Over / due to Convenience Adjusted Residual Estimated Retail Potential Headroom Adjusted Headroom Assumed Sales Density in Under Trading in Base Goods Floorspace Headroom Expenditure by Floorspace Need in 2016 Expenditure by 2016 (£m) Expenditure by 2016 (£m) 2016 (2) (£ per sq.m net) Year (£m) Commitments (as at May 2016 (£m) (sq.m net) Centre 2010) (1)

A B C = A + B D E = C - D F G = E / F

(Table 9, E) (Table 6, H)

Newport City Centre 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 4.3 -4.6 10,010 -462 Newport District Centres 0.3 -17.1 -16.8 0.0 -16.8 10,010 -1,674 Newport Retail Park District Centre 3.7 21.7 25.4 22.1 3.3 10,010 325 Out of Centre Superstores 4.1 4.8 8.9 16.6 -7.7 10,010 -768 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 10,010 33

TOTAL 8.4 9.1 17.5 43.0 -25.5 -2,545

Notes: (1) Details and estimated 2016 turnovers of convenience goods floorspace commitments and proposals are set out in Appendix 4E. (2) The derivation of our 2016 benchmark centre sales density estimates are set out in Section 4. TABLE 11 - CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2021 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Convenience Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 3.1 0.8 2.4 1.6 3.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 12.8 13.3 26.1 Newport District Centres 1.8 1.0 8.5 4.1 5.7 0.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.8 25.4 25.4 0.0 25.4 Newport Retail Park District Centre 0.0 1.5 33.2 22.8 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.0 0.8 8.6 71.0 71.0 0.0 71.0 Out of Centre Superstores 50.3 6.0 17.8 6.5 26.3 6.0 26.1 14.3 0.0 0.0 10.5 6.9 1.3 7.3 179.5 179.5 0.0 179.5 All Other Local Centres / Stores 2.3 0.4 5.6 2.8 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 12.6 0.0 12.6 SUB TOTAL 57.5 9.7 67.4 37.9 35.9 6.3 29.6 15.2 0.0 0.0 13.3 9.8 2.1 16.7 301.4 301.4 13.3 314.7 OUTSIDE BABERGH DISTRICT All Centres / Stores 7.8 7.1 1.4 6.1 1.1 4.9 1.7 125.3 102.5 126.5 89.8 155.5 9.4 61.7 700.7 SUB TOTAL 7.8 7.1 1.4 6.1 1.1 4.9 1.7 125.3 102.5 126.5 89.8 155.5 9.4 61.7 700.7

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 65.3 16.8 68.8 43.9 37.1 11.2 31.3 140.5 102.5 126.5 103.1 165.3 11.5 78.4 1002.1 SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Notes: For each cell, the monetry figure is derived by multiplying the 2021 available convenience goods expenditure in the zone (excl. SFT) (Table 4) by the unadjusted convenience goods market share of the specific centre in that zone (Table 7). (1) Estimated by Colliers International and incorporating CACI data on in-flow worker and tourist expenditure to Newport City Centre. TABLE 12 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL CONVENIENCE GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2021 (£ MILLION)

Turnover Allocation for Residual Turnover Potential Headroom 2010 Turnover 2021 Turnover Potential Existing Retailers 2010- Potential by 2021 Expenditure by 2021 2021

Centre ABC (1) D = B - C E = D - A

(Table 6, C) (Table 11, C)

Newport City Centre 23.7 26.1 1.4 24.8 1.0 Newport District Centres 21.9 25.4 2.2 23.2 1.3 Newport Retail Park District Centre 59.7 71.0 2.2 68.8 9.1 Out of Centre Superstores 158.9 179.5 8.9 170.7 11.7 All Other Local Centres / Stores 11.0 12.6 0.6 12.0 0.9

TOTAL 275.3 314.7 15.3 299.4 24.1

Reduction in Expenditure Adjustment for Over / due to Convenience Adjusted Residual Estimated Retail Potential Headroom Adjusted Headroom Assumed Sales Density in Under Trading in Base Goods Floorspace Headroom Expenditure by Floorspace Need in 2021 Expenditure by 2021 (£m) Expenditure by 2021 (£m) 2021 (2) (£ per sq.m net) Year (£m) Commitments (as at May 2021 (£m) (sq.m net) Centre 2010) (1)

A B C = A + B D E = C - D F G = E / F

(Table 12, E) (Table 6, H)

Newport City Centre 1.0 -0.3 0.7 4.4 -3.7 10,574 -348 Newport District Centres 1.3 -17.1 -15.7 0.0 -15.7 10,574 -1,489 Newport Retail Park District Centre 9.1 21.7 30.7 22.6 8.1 10,574 770 Out of Centre Superstores 11.7 4.8 16.6 17.0 -0.4 10,574 -41 All Other Local Centres / Stores 0.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 10,574 91

TOTAL 24.1 9.1 33.3 44.0 -10.7 -1,017

Notes: (1) Details and estimated 2021 turnovers of convenience goods floorspace commitments and proposals are set out in Appendix 4E. (2) The derivation of our 2021 benchmark centre sales density estimates are set out in Section 4. TABLE 14 - CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE PATTERN AND CENTRE TURNOVER ESTIMATES, 2026 (£ MILLION)

Consumer Demand: Where the Money Comes From (Zone) Expenditure Total Estimated Drawn From Convenience Study Area Inflow Retail Supply: Where the Money is Spent TOTAL Survey Area Goods Expenditure (1) HOUSEHOLD (Zones 1-14) Turnover SURVEY AREA Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 A B C = A + B 10 11 12 13 14 WITHIN NEWPORT CITY Newport City Centre 3.3 0.8 2.5 1.8 3.9 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 13.8 14.0 27.8 Newport District Centres 1.8 1.1 8.8 4.8 6.3 0.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.9 27.5 27.5 0.0 27.5 Newport Retail Park District Centre 0.0 1.6 34.6 26.7 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.1 0.9 9.7 77.9 77.9 0.0 77.9 Out of Centre Superstores 52.6 6.4 18.6 7.7 28.8 6.2 27.7 15.6 0.0 0.0 11.2 7.4 1.4 8.2 191.8 191.8 0.0 191.8 All Other Local Centres / Stores 2.5 0.4 5.8 3.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 13.5 0.0 13.5 SUB TOTAL 60.2 10.3 70.4 44.3 39.3 6.5 31.4 16.5 0.0 0.0 14.1 10.3 2.3 18.8 324.5 324.5 14.0 338.5 OUTSIDE NEWPORT CITY All Centres / Stores 8.1 7.5 1.4 7.1 1.3 5.0 1.8 136.7 109.1 134.2 95.4 165.0 10.3 69.6 752.6 SUB TOTAL 8.1 7.5 1.4 7.1 1.3 5.0 1.8 136.7 109.1 134.2 95.4 165.0 10.3 69.6 752.6

TOTAL AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE (WITHIN HOUSEHOLD 68.3 17.8 71.8 51.4 40.5 11.5 33.2 153.2 109.1 134.2 109.5 175.4 12.6 88.5 1077.1 SURVEY AREA - FROM TABLE 4)

Notes: For each cell, the monetry figure is derived by multiplying the 2026 available convenience goods expenditure in the zone (excl. SFT) (Table 4) by the unadjusted convenience goods market share of the specific centre in that zone (Table 7). (1) Estimated by Colliers International and incorporating CACI data on in-flow worker and tourist expenditure to Newport City Centre. TABLE 15 - CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL CONVENIENCE GOODS HEADROOM EXPENDITURE, 2026 (£ MILLION)

Turnover Allocation for Residual Turnover Potential Headroom 2010 Turnover 2026 Turnover Potential Existing Retailers 2010- Potential by 2026 Expenditure by 2026 2026

Centre ABC (1) D = B - C E = D - A

(Table 6, C) (Table 14, C)

Newport City Centre 23.7 27.8 2.0 25.8 2.1 Newport District Centres 21.9 27.5 3.3 24.2 2.4 Newport Retail Park District Centre 59.7 77.9 3.2 74.7 14.9 Out of Centre Superstores 158.9 191.8 13.0 178.8 19.9 All Other Local Centres / Stores 11.0 13.5 0.9 12.6 1.6

TOTAL 275.3 338.5 22.4 316.1 40.9

Reduction in Expenditure Adjustment for Over / due to Convenience Adjusted Residual Estimated Retail Potential Headroom Adjusted Headroom Assumed Sales Density in Under Trading in Base Goods Floorspace Headroom Expenditure by Floorspace Need in 2026 Expenditure by 2026 (£m) Expenditure by 2026 (£m) 2026 (2) (£ per sq.m net) Year (£m) Commitments (as at May 2026 (£m) (sq.m net) Centre 2010) (1)

A B C = A + B D E = C - D F G = E / F

(Table 15, E) (Table 6, H)

Newport City Centre 2.1 -0.3 1.8 4.5 -2.7 10,841 -251 Newport District Centres 2.4 -17.1 -14.7 0.0 -14.7 10,841 -1,357 Newport Retail Park District Centre 14.9 21.7 36.6 23.3 13.3 10,841 1,224 Out of Centre Superstores 19.9 4.8 24.7 17.5 7.2 10,841 666 All Other Local Centres / Stores 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 10,841 148

TOTAL 40.9 9.1 50.0 45.3 4.7 430

Notes: (1) Details and estimated 2026 turnovers of convenience goods floorspace commitments and proposals are set out in Appendix 4E. (2) The derivation of our 2026 benchmark centre sales density estimates are set out in Section 4.

RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited

APPENDIX 6

Maps of City Centre and District Centres

NEWPORT CITY CENTRE: GOAD PLAN B Y T A OR W WP B E U N S

(392)P (ACTUAL) NATIONAL CAR PARKS

E SUBW S AY U T O N H E E M R N G A R IN W Y VE D O IL A G U Y B WA W UB S S T E N U T O N N A T E H R S U E TA U ES R Q & 8 R - A 7 L IL G B E A IN T R K E O O IC H O F B F T S O E G N E IN L T E K TE S E O G R H T UE T H R IN Q T O S E D E G P IL AB N S H W R U T E U A O R 9 C C I N L A H A S B B A M K P R R S B N G P H N I U P E & IO 0 B W O 1 D E N /A G T H L N T N A IS E A A I T E C C R R X R T ( A V E 1 D A I NO H S T H S 1BP F IN R 9 I V 1 O E O S A M E O 8 X H IN P C U R O I D A I M NR L A E C A I D S SU SA T X LE P A O S E U C S 1 O N M E H EA T 1 E 1 R R S L & B P 11 R E E IR 9 5 T .0 S - S A A L .0 F 0 D T N H IL 0 O A T R 7 P R M A O E G M U - Y RT A - AC - 5 3 R S R PO T/ 11 C .0 1 A O A EW . E 0 - V N L IT N 1 00 S PM A T L S A S 2 P C I E R 9 YATES WINE L M U A M I U ODGE ) 1 B N L 6 L T A P S C IC A P Y A U M V H S (

O R 2 5 1 U A C

5 S A T N R E IO 5 V OR N E PUBLIC 2 P U T HOUSE 1 T 3 W IT T H Y E D H K N E S - E O R V N S A P C C AD E R E A U O 5 E I B 4 G L T O IN M L T 4 F E S O E S A S TL ES C 1 V T G T P F B E I A N R R K N F E D E O P E T R G IR R V U L O U V S A A O O K B E 7 H M T A B O O L S V 6 E IC S C S S A ZE V L O K 5 H TH C I S E YE OLD MURENGER O AC A C R S HOUSE 3 U 9 T 2 S / N K

5 E A S COTTON C T 8 - G H LUB O T E 4 H 1 AN ) - O PUBLIC HOUSE 1 O 1 Y PUBLIC H M O 0 M 1 U 1 6 & E S G 0 I T S N N E U ETERNITY GRILL I O J S HOUSE F 1 S O D N Z O T BAR & RESTAURANT T H E E S 3 O ( S E N R R U L L 5 P 1 F LIAM HIL S E WIL 2 F I E L 2 N O T E M

T 9 1 I S N O HI-F A S L D H FFICE S 9 RN TTING O 1 C R T P U E 5 ESTE BE E & A E W E S 1 O B 4 7 O A V K R A U T ES 2 LE 4 N DAVI S E V U A LTD U B G 5 8 T - N T T E EN T OHE R S FLORIS OM C C L U H 1 E 1 A 8 R A R A E I 1 FF ITO V R C - Y O 8 LIC J 7 I O 9 MBA S C N & MOBILITY BO A E SHOP 5 LUB R 1 A T 3 P C N 0 LE ICYC C U 6 D N B 5 INFO CE REST S L E E IAN 0 A M O L 6 ND B PE I S AM E 1 E & 1 IC LAB T ( FF S O R O 9 CIL 9 T E UN L ES E O R J 1 C R & B E O BA O R FRUITS OF A T S

A S 4 R S THE WORLD T D W T 1 UN 9 D DO R HO IN E R EY N W K GGRO 9 GR I 2 LIA I N G E N R 2 TH SE A C OU 0 WS A C H G DO BLI WIN M T PU - & RS E O D O O 4 2 D

8 N 1

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Y UTLET C O ) CANT 13 C A V V 1

P E L 4 C EI A S N CHLOE 9 R U HE 6 S A TOP C & BEAUTY 0 K R ARE RIS AL B HAIR S S - CH AU A CE L K I BE & BEAU SAL ) RV 4 N HAIR E 4 & S AIR I I ( H NG ES C 1 0 LDI 7 N T I P BUI AN N MENT ST 8 E ERN H OV ICE 9 V G S D P O ORE URNER HOS ST D T 2 G E KS A H U C 2 S TRA 4 AR S CH S 1 E E T FFE 5 T 3 CO T/A E 8 ON E A NT NGTONDINER S T R A T RLI 8 1 6 S IS BU LIN HOU P 2 VAC E RABAIOTT B E E HO IC K R R AC 9 I EE S FF 3 T Y R AFE L A FF O LE C WAL CO H OUT A N - N I M W V H S M S 1 Y JO SE RBER OTE UT A A C E 2 O A EET H OU S E B TN Y PITOL 8 T H B O E CA H T N K 2 O C 1 YS G F & I L C I D P 7 L T I A B 3 AR N E & R / E IS U H - X G 4 TA H E P IN W S G O S M F G H 4 E N R O S A J D O H IR E R L A W S AXI HIRE N 4 N T HG R A O N M I W O - 2 T O Y A O O G L M U F 1 R V N 2 P O 4 B S R E R L L E L O R 1 E Y A A O C HE D T 5 S T N 1 1 F H P E T C T E P S R U W R C C S I C D L I E E M M K J F I 0 2 L E F A V 1 C S W N 1 W I E N O I T E O E N R L H 9 H U 7 T S P R 4 - A T E G 8 3 H T H O I Y S ET R I K N L O 4 T L U R 7 E O 5 G O H T E T U 2 S O N T P L A S A 1 C N 6 H E A E E T N H V E X U A W T - O D E 8 F L A D L R O H E P F T 4 E 6 Y B F E 3 O N H Q C O A R A C 3 R - VAC ) D L 1 F G A G G E S L D T D 4 T A S N E A O E A E E H 1 R N R 5 W U A 2 R 8 A A NT T T B D D YUMMIES L 5 1 E S 6 I E E S 6 R C E V W R R E T R 4 1 N R R E E & N I T/A Z A D E N 1 I E U D E R E A S R - A F B T C W A B I R S 1 F A Y U T I S 1 & IS A OAS 8 S R 7 L E A R T S 5 T F F M 4 E G N S KEBAB SHOP P A W W 4 H & O L T S AY S U O KE AW 1 0 U E TA E SK E R I KIO F I B Y E 1 L D A TH B R N R E A R A A S THE S N A A A G O U O E L W 1 L A G O I H I W 1 R Y T B S IC R A L - I R R 1 L O U TN N ERRY COF B N R C 8 C T STRAWB FEE S U O S T HOP P P H S A I E 8 (64) (ACTUAL) C E B F T H WATER

S R L 3 T L H V I I W 3 F N R / JUNK 1 A E G S O E UNDER C 9 I AL N N SHOP 2 FRUITS OF TH 1 O R E WORLD CO 1 C I U R - T N A U S ANTS H Y S A C L WHOL A 4 O T ESALE C W NT V N E R A E M L E A CAMBRIAN RETAIL CENTRE E EM 0 R R K S U 1 A MU TS U A R T 1 A EN T 8 ST M S S SPACE U E E 3 LETS RS RD US R 2 PARTY TAI TA AM E & S O S 3 R M A RE HAIR 8 IS B PARTY 27 R O GOODS A AR E ST DE NT S A W E A S 9 A A N W C E C IA S 1 AR ROK VA TIC ADIE N P 1 L 8 DB ET O T DOMINY G M M LA D TL RS IAN OP USIC U 4 E C H 1 O AV TI IC S S S P 27A M ICE EC O E OPT L CRAFT & US INST F P A H N OF S 3 T G D D & SH M N U T I N HABER S S 8 E T NS CIA R B ET S O TI A I Y R B 2 I S P E AV N O W E D H E 7 S 1 0 JO 1 E P B L G A NATIONAL CAR PARKS G P K A G O TASTE 5 N & 8 ST ANI T E A T E O U O E E CL LD R BUDS 0 L M R U T Y - C 3 M A O C R U O M 1 O DR W T USEL C D R I U C T E N E A U U E H 7 1 MULTI-STOREY N S O S/W BAR O K A 6 Q 28 L P Y F S F A B C R N A LE ST N T L R L Y S B E EIS R 6 U O V T R R F R D R E U O C O S B S T R O N D - G O S E G L S I S N L H I I O L E O S LD N D O E E S T S W O G O 1 H E S E W (500) (ESTIMATED) E V N 1 J E D A B 5 R E A A MU S N S D U O H SEME R - A N O M T I T L 7 S G H N L A E I 8 H C U E A I G L Y

J / U N N D C N I E W L T 9 I H O T A N O O L I T C E H G G S T N T P I R L 3 U S R UT W K R C S T N E L O T Y N A T Y 6 L K T R N U /A E A C A G E & D I E C NI N T V E A TO 2 U L G T N N N A V C / & B L S A 9 AC O / 3 1 V ET & V I H C A 12 OUTL IR B A O 1 15 3 T A O 1 P RE 1 ACAN H M E M NT V ON E D 0 16 RA E 4 ATI O P 1 C LTER L T S NY ER A BA H 1 O UND LO DS F T 9 7 S 3 T G O I EN O F I L E 0 LG N 8 OM S VE I L H LD 3 A C MCDONA TR G 7 T 4 E E 1 E OP @ AURANT R SH OD REST - R - 6 T C FO A P 20 NI FAST ) 3 S B 5 S O ORS GG G C T S FLO 3 E D E NA ETAIL 5 R IN R R A 2 R G N E E E P T ( O N 1 H 3 E 18 R E A 2 OL E T E ER T N J L - S J N 1 S OM K N E M 9 A O S Y H B I W T A L K 24 C F V W Y I U G C F S W H L E L S S L 1 AR I R R M G T G 4 5 O I / S E A S A C 2 7 R O R W W ID R E - I E P S T A M S T 1 3 U E P H S E 2 6 C H A I 2 O O M R - R 2 L E S S O D 1 R R V I IN R A S Y E M A 1 & A 7 N G N 2 R CT H B H C T A S K C C S E 8 I - /W O D Y 8 S H O A T U O LI S 2 H D C N L V A C S & I C 1 IP E & T A A H S C O S S S N P IN T T RI Y H S B O T T R V G 3 S / L P O R E 3 E I I I A W C A C H T C U D M O I I I Q A T N S A S M U C D P E O T G 9 3 IN E C R T D H S U O IL 2 S K S AN U N P G R U I A B IE C R T E E F T E S C M L A E B R A O EN A E R A N P G A B R W R S H U & N V A K H 1 E N 0 E G A S A B C W T N T R E 3 / 7 C P S A E S S E T E S C S N D 9 L I 8 L A R L E C O R C D O N L A E T O I E S A E E T C T L R Y I G E R F N M E B N I I F S A I U U T U E R A R ( O O F T L W O E E B R F T 3 R O P 1 O S B E T A E T P N K T E E C F B F R G N O Y A E E A N 7 Y C C N S O T E B V C T U A T R E L E H R L C E IN 5 E N 7 A E O I S E T A TE U K G E S A D N I R T T T T T & D G 1 S C I S B C L A N T E C - S 3 H N T I T M S E CRO O E S M N I O E A E L D & A G H T D T H T O I E 7 & E E F K G R N U R R N N O M U R E A L 1 L N C A G & & I A P C O E R T P O O E E E T A N I S E 7 O E K S S E T Z E N B A H K E M A G A T C S T T N 6 C E R E ) E P S B O N R Y & H N L E N C E C A K T O G N N S I R Y O H G G L S B U E S O C 8 E N E R N L E N IA R T T O E E J E A S M T R E T N P A E T T O 2 ST K F I A 8 E V M F A A E D N K S S C E V O N S A G N T P V N C A I I ( I A B G N 1 O E P T M EWI A N 8 NCP A I N I A T E F E O T T O E 1 T T C R E G A L A H N & S A E L S R L 8 R S 7 TAXI EA O O 7 T D I P E C E E 1 W N S S O 5 E 7 N T (40) (ACTUAL) S 7 O E ) B R H R N Y V N S NA I 6 N I A T T I E A K D L N 7 - L E N L E N CH L 2 E R A G S E K E A K A 5 1 F IN G 7 R R R O 3 I T T T F CH I G R E U E G E A 4 E O 1 E I N 7 - L C TA F E N Y 2 L E A A 7 N 7 2 S S C C HT D U L P N E E S 6 4 N A R 1 T A E T T 7 T L & Y S T Y Y E H P D P E E R T 70 E W H R D S E H B C R E S 4 INE 69 TR 7 U H 3 E T A O T CH O J C R T 2 S B E A H D L O Y - 8 E U E 6 L A R O P E G E R W W ) A T D S I K N 2 7 I M N L U 6 C BA O E S S R S S & 2 & P E E I B R H N B D R V B E E S R O T I M K E A E C L L D R C V L A I T O A N R CH T A 4 A M E O O F 4 L P T E G O E W ENT - S T L R 5 6 N F O - 6 E T S 2 S M S U 6 N A H 1 T R ( S O F S E E R X S T P R C R R E O A 2 R C S R I A E CORAL U C H - I X E U M A B E C ( O S D T O O N 1 P M A I E P W T E E R L W E A P E M C S D T I P C I FF M 7 R R C V N E U A A A E I T O BETTING OFFICE 8 7 S M L OU ST B W - E O S B G N B I A O R A P - W T E LK M 8 M & T T / T E E ) Y A H S C W D T S R O L U S TE 6 S S HO 4 S T I S A R 0 & G E K Y R 1 2 T E 7 P C CO AN & S A T N A 57 G R N R O O - 2 C U E T H S V S TA S R E 6 ES N O E A I O 3 5 H R U 5 - 23 21 R 0 O O W O & H K B A S S NV P EN O L 5 22 E R T P M R 5 A 1 N O O P C F T A B HO H C 6 U F ( U N T L W S E 2 E F M E T O I A D L N A G S P L S T E I UP L U G O T R O D V L Y A L E C P P S E H H I I R E C O E S C E A P E NES B E 2 T E E H 2 G T I ) C E T O T S N A 5 L M A R T I Y E R T L 2 R 5 H B A U G O E T T T E G N N S C T O T R V A I T O O E 1 A E L S U P T LE L O E O P E E R A HON E G R C T ES A T F NT S T E T E E O F D L Y A & L I N 2 N R C T R N A Y A S S F I T R U F N L U O V A D EON N S 9 L D 5 A B M R R ARD W C 24 C AU CA COLE F O R 2 C C S O I T O 4 ( Y S - 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FB 24 SM Club 14

4 2 ll 26.1m Pi Crindau

1 20.6m 1 a

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1 1 3

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1 3 E

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R 8 IN 2 EDW E A D STREET

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1 4 0 5

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R D 2 e A f H Discovery Park dy H D B ARLEQU E d IN DRIVE Un

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6 1 H El Sub Sta I L

Service 1

2 1 1

Vacant1

2 1 Other 0m 25m 50m 75m 2

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E 7

A 1

2 A 0 I

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1 3 1 6 1 27

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Court

6 7 1 1 Eve's Well

8 5

1 25m

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8 l

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6 7 0m

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9 6

1 7 a 9

4 1

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1 G

1 PH

7 1

2 0

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Maindee District Centre 1 1 1 1

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2a 30

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5 0

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9 9 E

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N 7

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N 8 O

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3 D 4

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m H

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5 5

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6 T

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50m 75m 2

9 54 58 56 44 2 4 32 1 7

22 2

2 1 5 2

N A

I V I V

7 5

5 25m

6 2

5 4 2

3 3

2 6

1 2 3 2

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3 1 6

2 LB 6 1

7.5m 2 7

62 4 0m Warehouse

54 2 8 6

0 t o

1 7

5 2

7 5 3 9 8 4 E 2 E

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2 T

D 6

4 S

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7 7 M 4 26 O A

R H

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E A

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2 8 5

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9 2 E 7 S 2 S 2

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18 8 9

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3 0 T

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2 5 1 2 S

51 4 G N 5 I 0 R

2 7.5m

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E 6 2 0 F

57 6

1 1

9 9 1

Church 3 2 1 St Mary's

PTP

3 1:1739

O 7

Corporation Road District Centre F R

2 W 9 1 7.4m

4 1

4 7.9m S

1 2

A 7.4m 3

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2 E

V 2

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C 1

E 3

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7 E

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1 R

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S 1 I

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1 T

3 E

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23 2 5 Depot O R K C

2 R T

E 3 E

E 3 V

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T 5 C

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3 4

3 Bankside KEY Convenience Comparison Service Vacant Other 6 TCB ower ower 17 T T Commercial Road District Centre

b 9.1m u E S N A l L 'S E IN BB RO EET

STR 4 RGE 9 GEO

5 3

3 8 6 1 0 PW T Post

R 6 T 3 S CR GE P OR o E s 8 G

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31 R ET 9 E 4 R

30 ST Hall

7 7

9 3

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6 P E A E 5 R S T T Hall S GE 23

R ET

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Market

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E b 7 S

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S 1 9

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8 6 6

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1 RE C T l i n

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1 R O R

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t L Hostel 9

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3 T 2 5 5

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6 6

3 6 7 9 6 K 9

Car Park E 7 7 T 0

4 S

4 T 8

1 7 1

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2 3 O 4 L 9

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HIN

4 LP 9 6 O 3 El D

Sub Sta 9 E 5 R

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LT 9 7 BO 8.4m S D q u u 1 PH 8.4m n 2 a n r 4

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Car Park Su

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o o e 4 c 2 D o w 1 n i l s R p 2 1c s e 6 h C I n V i 5 n b l 4 1 o P E s l C a e o

c 3 4 u 5 e 5 r t 44

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a 6 Posts s 1

7 3

2 4

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P 5 LO ts A 5 C os 6

34 P D 8 T 7 S

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6 K

1 1 C Convenience3 5 I R DE

RE 2 6 F

29 1 4 t o o t 7

22 3

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C S 1 I S n D E E R 2 d ge C a

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1 3 1 1 0

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Albion

t T o

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6 Albion R

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R 1 0 TCBs

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1 to 17

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A N 4

E 4 L 8 C Memorial IN C V 25m

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S CE

R A

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MP 158.25 e

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Caerleon Road District Centre 7

8 Church 7 KEY

5 1

D 9

A 6 T T JULIANS COUR Convenience O S

M 6 209 6 D

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D 1 N

2 O

D 49 E 5 U L 0 2 R R H 2 E

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8.8m 4

D u rh a m R o a d Other

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Infants School N 1 Shelter o

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L u a ch rg h e S M r ry

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5 1 St Julian's

9 Conservative 3 1 C lub 7

3 PC

5 6

a 7 7

2 1 6

7 7 1 1

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8 1 3 4

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KEY PH 2 Convenience Lewvia Comparison 17.5m

4 3 4

Service TCB 3 Vacant Pol Other Th Sta LB e 0m 10m 20m 30m Ol d P Post Ordnance Survey © Crown Copyright 2010. All rights reserved. Licence number 100020449. Plotted Scale 1:629- o Caerleon - High Street District Centre

L E L 6 T Roman S Baths 5 CA 5 4

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Comparison

ROMAN 5 2 GATE 16 Service e ri

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a o C

1 Vacant W g 1 H ir m I la w

T B rr 1 E y Other H le fw A p F 0m 10m 20m 30m

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5 1

7 1

3 0

5 c r u

h C

2 1 s a 3 k 3 p 50m 75m 5 l o a o r M B

S Shelter M

S Weir

25m

1 2 Saint David Lewis Catholic Church

1 22.7m 2 5 Lambourne House

M M

S S Sluices 22.1m (PH) 21.4m

The Nightingale M

n Shelter S

P Sluice

Bettws Centre

M Health S Centre

3 Bettws District Centre LB 1:1124 Posts Corporation Yard

Library

3 7

3 8

2 9

t o

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13 2 7

t o

3 7 Ordnance Survey

TCB

0 2

4 1 2

4 8 6

7 1

8 6

8 4

1 2 4 2

6 A 1

KEY Convenience Comparison Service Vacant Other W

O N

7 3

6 1 a 3 9

11.4m 17

3 9

4 3 4 21

T R E 21.5m M O

CAREY ROAD S

A 50m 75m

Surgery

4 1

O 1

4 2 R 1

S 1 6

B 9

8 c 1 3 2

I B 3

b C 2 4 G 3

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5 4

4 1

4 2

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25m

4 1

R 2

8 N PO

4 EW 0m

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8 1

L 1

1 4

1 1

2 4

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1 2

2 4

2 1

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Su 0

8 3

1 7

6 2 4

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R C

18.3m

D A O 14.4m R D A O R

H T R W L O I N

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D E

T H R O W L I N E K

1 6

9 8 3 2 h c r u h

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3 n a i 3 r t e y b s e r P

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4 A

2 L

El Sub Sta 4

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1 T

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27 31 4

4 E Shelter

TCB's

D O A

R K I C W R A

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D A R O

CK I RW A

2 16

1 8

D 3

6 2

A B

0 64 1 2

D I

LE O C

1 13 8 1:1782 23 25 27 5 Beechwood District Centre

13.2m

1 O D A R N

R D E W A H A

A D RO N N RDE A W HA 9

2 2

6 1 8 1 0 2

4 2

5 5 7

1 8

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R A

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S 3 E Depot 6

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7 9 4 5

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8.6m

5 6

13.6m 1

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H 1

5 E L 4 B 25

8 9 4 7 2

8 9

0 2 10.5m

4 1 8.6m

Ordnance Survey

6 2

4 8

Exchange

Telephone

5 1 1

9 D A

2 O 3

0 O

2 D N I W 9 0

13.6m 13 1

23 3 L

4 A 6 R 0 C

2 R

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A y

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B 2

A M D

2 O

R 3

7 O

R L

6 O

D KEY Convenience Comparison Service Vacant Other N R

I A

2 B

2 1 39

8.1m

4 2 49