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Newport City Council/ Newport Unlimited Newport City Council/ Newport Unlimited RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT APPENDICES – VOL 2 / JULY 2010 PREPARED BY PREPARED FOR Colliers International Newport City Council/Newport Unlimited Colliers International Newport City Council/Newport Unlimited July 2010 Retail Study and Capacity Assessment APPENDICES (Volume 2) Appendix 1: The Household Telephone Survey (A) Survey Methodology and Sampling (B) Survey Questionnaire Appendix 2: Population Projections Appendix 3: Experian Data (Technical Assumptions) (A) Definition of Convenience and Comparison Goods (Extract) (B) Convenience and Comparison Goods Expenditure Per Head (C) Expenditure Forecasts (Extract) (D) Forecast of Special Forms of Trading (Extract) (E) Changing Store Productivities (Extract) Appendix 4: Retail Floorspace Data and Benchmark Turnover (A) Methodology: Estimating Retail Floorspace of City and District Centres (B) City Centre and District Centres: Existing Retail Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers (C) Out of Centre Retail Warehouses: Existing Retail Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers (D) Out of Centre Superstores: Existing Retail Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers (E) Retail Commitments in Newport City: Floorspace and Benchmark Turnovers Appendix 5: Retail Floorspace Capacity Assessment (A) Methodology for Assessing Retail Floorspace Capacity (B) The Need for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace: Scenario 1 (Constant Market Shares Approach) (C) The Need for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace: Scenario 2 (Adjusted Market Shares Approach) (D) The Need for Additional Convenience Goods Floorspace Appendix 6: Maps of City Centre and District Centres This Report has been prepared by: Colliers International, Marylebone Lane London W1U 1HL www.colliers.com Contact: Dr Richard Doidge Tel: +44 (0)20 7344 6872 RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited APPENDIX 1 The Household Telephone Survey RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited APPENDIX 1A Survey Methodology and Sampling BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang, Lancs PR3 1YB Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336 E-mail: [email protected] Registered No: 7215612 NEWPORT HOUSEHOLD SHOPPING SURVEY APRIL/MAY 2010 Presented to: Colliers International 9 Marylebone Lane London W1U 1HL CONTENTS 1. Background & Methodology 2. Sample Breakdown 3. Statement of Reliability 4. Tabulations by Zone BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD Registered No: 7215612 1. BACKGROUND & METHODOLOGY The client, Colliers International, wished to conduct a telephone shopping survey in Newport and the surrounding areas. This was to establish the following: - • Where respondents go for their general non-food shopping such as clothing, footwear and household goods • How frequently they visit their main and secondary centres • How their expenditure on such goods is divided between main and secondary centres • Why they choose their main centres, how they travel and the length of their journey from home • Similar information regarding bulky goods shopping • Similar information regarding food & grocery shopping • Information on linked trips connected to food & grocery shopping • Usage of leisure facilities in the area A total of 1400 interviews were targeted, in fourteen different zones, each zone defined by electoral ward. Interviews were conducted over a period of three weeks, between April 28th and May 19th 2010. In order to provide meaningful and reliable data in each of the zones 100 interviews were allocated to each of the zones. The results were then weighted, at the analysis stage, to take account of the differing populations in each zone and their importance to the overall survey area. BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD Registered No: 7215612 2. NEWPORT SAMPLE BREAKDOWN ZONE Population % Achieved Weighted Weight Sample Sample 1 35,373 6.8% 100 96 0.957 2 8,270 1.6% 100 22 0.224 3 39,099 7.6% 100 106 1.058 4 17,680 3.4% 100 48 0.478 5 19,273 3.7% 100 52 0.522 6 5,848 1.1% 100 16 0.158 7 15,965 3.1% 100 43 0.432 8 69,739 13.5% 106 189 1.780 9 53,180 10.3% 94 144 1.531 10 68,034 13.2% 100 184 1.841 11 56,445 10.9% 100 153 1.528 12 87,686 16.9% 100 237 2.373 13 5,473 1.1% 100 15 0.148 14 35,267 6.8% 100 95 0.954 TOTAL 517,332 100.0% 1,400 1,400 1.000 The sample used for making telephone calls was obtained by Beacon Research from DBS Data, who supplied names, addresses and telephone numbers, as defined by electoral ward. Full details of the samples achieved in each zone and the weightings subsequently applied within the analysis, are shown in the preceding table. The following table summarises the details of calls made and interview outcome. Quantity % Initial Sample 2,800 100.0 Completed interviews 1,400 50.0 Refusals 193 6.9 Wrong numbers / Unobtainable / Answer phone 142 5.1 No reply (after 4 calls) 571 20.4 Not used 494 17.6 BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD Registered No: 7215612 3. STATEMENT OF RELIABILITY Assessment of the standard error: 1. The Newport Household Shopping Survey has been undertaken as a series of individual sample surveys, over a number a defined zones. 2. The results are subject to the following sampling error, of which there follows an analysis. 3. The following analysis indicates the methodology used to calculate the standard error, with the standard 95% probability of being correct. The formulae for these calculations are as follows: SE% = p%*q% n Where: p% sample value recorded q% = 100% - p% n = sample size And where: ±1.96 x (SE %) = 95% probability that the correct answer lies in the range calculated. 4. Using the above formulae, we can predict the variation between the sample results and the ‘true’ values from our knowledge of the size of sample on which the results are based and the number of times that a particular answer is given. The table below illustrates the predicted ranges for the total sample and percentage results at the 95% confidence level. Approximate sampling tolerances applicable to percentages at or near these levels. Size of sample on which 10% or 90% 20% or 80% 30% or 70% 40% or 60% 50% survey result is based 1,400 interviews 1.57 2.10 2.40 2.57 2.62 For example, with a sample of 1400, where 30% give a particular answer, the chances are 19 in 20 that the ‘true’ value (which would have been obtained if the whole population had been interviewed) will fall within the range of ±2.40 percentage points from the sample results. BEACON RESEARCH (SERVICES) LTD Registered No: 7215612 RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT Newport City Council in corporation with Newport Unlimited APPENDIX 1B Survey Questionnaire Job No: GW/10/462 AREA STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL BEACON RESEARCH The Resource Centre, Bridge Street, Garstang, Lancs PR3 1YB Tel: 01995 606330 Fax: 01995 605336 NEWPORT RETAIL STUDY AND CAPACITY ASSESMENT HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY, ON BEHALF OF COLLIERS CRE (April 2010) Name: Address: Postcode: C1. Age: 16-24 1 Supervisor/Manager/Self Employed 25-34 2 Size of company 35-44 3 No. of employees 45-54 4 55-64 5 If Retired 65 + 6 Company pension–ask previous occupation State pension only – code 5 below C2. Sex: Male 1 Female 2 If Unemployed Less than 2 months – ask about previous C3. What is the occupation of the chief occupation wage earner in your household? Over 2 months – code 6 below Full/Part time employed 1 Retired 2 Now Assess Social Grade Unemployed 3 AB 1 C1 2 Occupation C2 3 D 4 Rank/Status E1 (Retired) 5 E2 (Unemployed) 6 No. of Employees Refused 7 Qualifications Interviewer Signature: Date: 1 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462 Good morning/afternoon/evening, my name is ………………………………………..…… We are doing some research, on behalf of Newport City Council, to improve shopping facilities in this area and I’d like to ask you a few questions. QUALIFIER QUESTIONS: - 1). Are you/ May I speak to the person responsible for the majority of your household shopping? YES 1 (Continue) NO 2 (CLOSE) 2). Are you able to tell me in which store or centre you do the majority of your food or grocery shopping? YES 1 (Go to questionnaire) NO 2 (CLOSE) As we need to speak to people across a number of areas, could you please tell me your full postcode? WRITE IN POST CODE HERE Refer to quota and check that respondent is eligible for interview – if not, thank and close. 2 BEACON RESEARCH Job No: GW/10/462 Q1a. Can I ask you first of all, excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, at which Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park do you do most of your shopping for non-food goods such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery? Q1b. And how often do you visit..................... Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park, for this type of non-food shopping? Q1c. And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what percentage or proportion of your total expenditure on non-food shopping such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in ....................... Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park? Q2a. Excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what is your second most visited Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park for non-food shopping such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery? (SINGLE CODE) Q2b. And how often do you visit..................... Town/City Centre or Shopping Centre or Retail Park for this type of non-food shopping? Q2c. And excluding Mail Order and shopping over the Internet, what percentage or proportion of your total expenditure on non-food shopping such as clothing & footwear, books, gifts and jewellery would you say that you do in ......................
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