Newport's Unified Needs Assessment

NEWPORT’S UNIFIED NEEDS ASSESSMENT

2013

Edition 3 July 2013

Content

Introduction 5 The Issue for Newport 6 Our Vision 6 Our Approach 7 About Newport 8 Newport City 8 People 8 Wealth and Deprivation 15 Part 1 - Involving Newport 19 Part 2 – Single Integrated Plan Outcomes 25 People in Newport achieve their full potential 26 Economic Inactivity 28 Unemployment 32 Children Living in Workless Households 36 Young People Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) 39 Key Stage 4 46 Educational Attainment - Poverty 48 Welsh Speakers 51 Primary and Secondary School Attendance 53 Fixed Term Exclusions 55 Adult qualifications 57 Basic Skills 59 Additional indicators 62 Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy 63 Job Density 65 Employee jobs 68 Earnings 71 Active Enterprises 74 Regeneration 77 Digital Inclusion 78 Commuting Patterns 81 Traffic Volumes 83 Road Conditions 84 Tourism 85 Carbon Emissions 88 Air Quality 92 Municipal Waste to Landfill or Incinerated 94 Total Energy Use 96 Street Cleanliness 98 Additional indicators 100 People in Newport are healthy and thriving 101 Still Birth 103 Low Birth Weight 105 Breastfeeding 107 Infant Mortality 109

Early Years Vaccination 111 Dental Health 113 Immunisation and Vaccination – children and young people 116 Conception Rate 119 Sexual Health 121 Diabetes 124 Heart and Cardiovascular 126 Respiratory Illness 129 Cancer 132 Mental Health 134 Immunisation and Vaccination – adults 137 Smoking 139 Smoking in Pregnancy 142 Nutrition 144 Physical Activity 147 Overweight or Obese 150 Alcohol Consumption 154 Limiting Long Term Illness 157 Life Expectancy 158 Homelessness 161 Temporary Accommodation 164 Affordable Housing 166 Affordable Warmth 167 Empty Homes 169 Biodiversity 171 Green Space 173 People in Newport live in a safe and inclusive community 175 All Recorded Crime 177 Acquisitive Crime 180 Violent Crime 184 Prolific Offending 188 Youth Justice 190 Anti Social Behaviour 193 Domestic Abuse 196 Deliberate Fires 199 Public Confidence 202 Road Safety 205 Hate Crime 207 Newport is a distinctive and vibrant city 210 Perception of Newport 211 City Centre Competitiveness 213 City Centre Footfall 215 City Centre Safety 217 Additional Information 220 Sustainable Development 220 Equalities and Welsh Language 220 Contact Details 221

Families First indicators: Working age people in low income families gain, and progress within, employment Proportion of children living in families in receipt of out of work (means-tested) benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60% of median income % of year 11 leavers not in education, employment or training (NEET) Proportion of 18 – 24 year olds claiming Job Seekers Allowance Children, young people and families, in or at risk of poverty, achieve their potential % of pupils eligible for free school meals who achieve the Foundation Phase Indicator (in teacher assessments) compared to pupils who are not eligible for free school meals (FSM) % of pupils eligible for free school meals who achieve the Core Subject Indicator at Key Stage 2, compared to pupils who are not eligible for free school meals % of pupils eligible for free school meals who achieve the Level 2 threshold including a GCSE A*-C in English/Welsh and Maths, at the end of Key Stage 4 compared to pupils who are not eligible for FSM % of half day sessions (overall absence) missed by pupils of compulsory school age attending maintained primary schools and eligible for FSM compared to those pupils who are not eligible for FSM % of half day sessions (overall absence) missed by pupils of compulsory school age attending maintained secondary schools and eligible for FSM compared to those pupils who are not eligible for FSM Children, young people and families are healthy and enjoy wellbeing % of children fully immunised by their 4th birthday % of live births with a birth-weight of less than 2500g Numbers of conceptions under age 16 years per 1000 female residents aged 13 to 15 Proportion of children in reception class who are overweight or obese Families are confident, nurturing, resilient and safe Number of households with dependent children accepted as eligible, unintentionally homeless and in priority need Number of homeless households with dependent children in temporary accommodation at the end of the period Children in need by parental capacity First time entrants to youth offending teams

Communities First indicators: Prosperous communities % income related benefits % children in households on income related benefits % employment related benefits % 16-24 year olds who are not in employment or education (NEETs) Youth offenders (% of population aged 10 to 17) Learning communities Key stage 2/3/4 results Primary and secondary school absence rate (% of half day sessions missed) % 18/19 not entering higher education % of adults with no qualifications Healthier communities % live births with a low birth weight Cancer incidence rate % of population with limiting long term illness % of the population who are obese Gap in life expectancy between most and least deprived % of children reaching or exceeding their developmental milestones at age 3

Introduction

A Single Integrated Plan (SIP) ‘Feeling Good About Newport’ was published on 1 April 2013. A SIP is the defining statement of strategic planning intent for the local authority area. It contains the LSB’s vision for improving the city over the next three years. The SIP identifies key priorities that, as an LSB, we will work towards achieving over the next few years. These priorities have been identified as those where the LSB and other key stakeholders must work together to achieve success.

The SIP replaces the following plans and strategies:  Community Strategy  Health, Social Care and Wellbeing Strategy  Children and Young People’s Plan  Community Safety Plan  Prosperous Newport Plan

The Welsh Government has challenged all local authority areas in Wales to develop a Single Integrated Plan (SIP) and rationalise partnerships by 1 April 2013. The statutory guidance ‘Shared Purpose – Shared Delivery’ sets out the role of local government and their partners, through Local Service Boards (LSBs), in helping to improve service delivery by working together to plan, work, deliver and improve outcomes. The guidance is intended to integrate local service planning, streamline partnership working, and strengthen the strategic role and accountability of the local service board (LSB). In Newport, a review of partnership arrangements was undertaken in 2012 and a new structure is now in place.

The guidance replaces existing statutory guidance deriving from a number of pieces of legislation (Community Strategy, Children and Young People’s Plan, Health Social Care and Wellbeing Strategy). Community Safety planning is non-devolved so the guidance is advisory only for Community Safety planning in Wales. The guidance states it is the role of the LSB to use its local needs analysis to determine which will be the highest priorities for local action. There is an expectation from the Welsh Government that a single integrated plan should be underpinned by a single needs assessment, but this should be viewed as part of a more innovative and thorough approach to evidence and analysis.

In June 2010, One Newport LSB agreed to a new approach of developing the first Unified Needs Assessment (UNA) which was first published in November 2010 and used to inform the development of the core plans above. A revised version was published in May 2012 which included more detail and analysis in order to meet the statutory requirements of Community Safety planning. Undertaking only one needs assessment has allowed partners to share intelligence, reduce the cost of research and duplication of information, and assess the impact of initiatives over time by continuously monitoring the changing needs of the local population. The UNA has enabled partners to establish a clear set of priorities and will be used to inform the commissioning of services. This new approach supports the work of the single integrated plan and offers the potential to explore closer working relationships between partners.

The key building blocks of the Single Plan include a robust evidence base from which to determine the greatest priorities for action at a local level. This UNA provides a more robust approach to analysing the available evidence in order to support an outcomes based approach and identifying priorities for shared action and improvement. This UNA will inform a core set of shared priorities and a common set of outcomes for Newport and its residents. This UNA has enabled partners to pool information and expertise in order to develop a public service ‘intelligence’ function at a local level. Work will continue in Newport to develop a local information system to support this UNA.

The UNA is revised on an ongoing basis throughout the year to review existing data, update information and analysis and monitor progress. This report is published on an annual basis, and sets out a summary of the issues facing the local population of Newport and presents public opinion, background information and baseline data which can be used to determine the priorities for the LSB and the Single Plan.

The Issue for Newport

The Single Integrated Plan (SIP) is designed to reflect local and regional outcomes, and focus on meeting the needs of those residents most in need and those neighbourhoods that are most deprived. Neighbourhood working will put people at the centre of public services and the community. Tackling issues that can make a real difference to people’s lives in the long term is key to the success of this strategy.

Sustainable development is the overarching policy framework which integrates social, economic and environmental actions to achieve a common vision for Newport. It involves ensuring that all actions are economically, socially and environmentally sustainable and so contribute to overall community wellbeing, now and in the future.

Local Profiles

The LSB has agreed to develop a neighbourhood working approach to delivering services at a local level. Neighbourhood working is the process of improving and joining up local services, whilst focusing on specific neighbourhoods and being more responsive to local needs. It commonly involves the development of Area or Neighbourhood Partnerships, made up of service planners and decision makers who are able to jointly plan the delivery of services around the identified needs of the community. To facilitate this there must be systems for robust data analysis, intelligence gathering and community engagement. This allows the partnership to improve services and reduce gaps in outcomes such as education, community safety and quality of life measures.

A set of ward profiles are being developed for Newport as part of the neighbourhood working approach and aim to provide a snapshot of the local area. In order to understand the needs of different communities across the city, information within the profile includes demographics, health, housing, education, employment, community safety, facilities and the local environment. These profiles can be used as an evidence base to identify the need for developing new services.

Our Vision for Newport

“Working together to create a proud and prosperous city with opportunities for all”

Our Approach

A project group was set up with the task of combining the core baseline data and additional qualitative information required to inform strategic planning. Members of the project group include lead officers from the centralised Partnership Support Team who worked with representatives from key partner agencies including Aneurin Bevan Health Board, Gwent Police, Communities First, Public Health Wales, Newport Unlimited, and across organisation departments including housing, leisure, social services and economic development.

The Results Based Accountability (RBA) approach to planning services was used to develop this unified needs assessment. RBA focuses attention on the results (outcomes) that the services are intended to achieve. The approach was developed by Mark Friedman in the United States. There are two parts of RBA: Population accountability and Performance accountability.

Population accountability is the main focus for this needs assessment. RBA defines outcomes as ‘conditions of wellbeing for populations’ and are a key part of this approach as they define what it is we are trying to achieve. RBA outcomes have been agreed in the SIP ‘Feeling Good About Newport’. These outcomes will be supported by population indicators which further define the success criteria. This will help demonstrate delivery and allow the LSB to clearly account for the progress being made towards all the core plans and strategies.

Qualitative Information

Regular consultation and engagement takes place throughout the year with local people, businesses, visitors, workers, and the community. Various consultation activity has taken place over the last few years including Involve Newport citizen’s panel, attendance at local events, Eisteddfod, focus groups, community groups as well as use of bulletins and newsletters, websites, Newport Matters and local media. Consultation and engagement results from other sources have also been considered including the Single Integrated Plan, Local Development Plan, Economic Development strategy, ‘Partnership and Communities Together’ (PACT) priorities, and children and young people participation events.

The following key questions were considered:

- What are the three best things about Newport - What do you think Newport needs? - If you could change one thing about Newport what would it be? - What do you want to see more of in Newport? - What would you like Newport to be like in 3 years time?

A full analysis of all consultation responses is available on request.

Quantitative Information

Using the RBA approach the partnership team, in consultation with various key stakeholders, identified a number of headline population indicators for each Single Plan outcome that could be used to establish the needs of the local population. Each population indicator was subject to detailed analysis involving key partners and lead officers from across organisations.

About Newport

As one of Wales’ newest cities, Newport forms the gateway between Wales and England and the economic motor for the South East Wales region. In spite of the tough economic climate facing the city and the UK as a whole, it continues to undergo some of the most far-reaching changes seen in the locality during the last 100 years and heralds the newest and perhaps most exciting chapter in the city’s history. Those who know the city well will recognise it as a multi-cultural community with its own unique atmosphere where traditional industries exist alongside new electronics and financial service sectors.

For all its historic interest, Newport has more than it’s past to commend it. After losing some of its core industries, the city is successfully proving that it can re-establish and adapt itself as a centre of modern industry and commerce. We provide jobs and opportunities for local people, the communities along the M4 corridor and the eastern valleys.

Newport covers a geographical area of just over 73.5 square miles. It is a vibrant, forward-thinking city steeped in a rich heritage, natural areas, biodiversity and landscape. Protection of this environment as well as our urban centres will make Newport a more attractive place.

Newport City

Newport is undergoing major changes with many parts of the city being redeveloped to create a better environment for people to live, work and visit. It has a distinctive role as a city and the aim is to revive the city centre and the surrounding districts to make it a more sustainable city where people can live closer to places where they work and shop and are encouraged to use public transport. Newport has a key regional role within south east Wales and partner agencies are working together to regenerate the city and turn it into a thriving centre for business, leisure and living. The image of the city has suffered in recent years and work is underway to increase community confidence and to encourage people to feel good about the city and to be proud of where they live. The Ryder Cup in 2010 was a once in a lifetime opportunity to get residents, businesses and visitors feeling good about Newport and to create a lasting legacy for the city.

People

In 2011, the population of Newport was estimated at 145,736 with 51% female and 49% male1. The population has risen by 6% since 2001.

1 Office for National Statistics (ONS), 2011 Census

Population by gender

52% 52% 51% 51% 50% 50% 49% 49% 48% 48% 47% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Newport Male 48.6% 48.7% 48.7% 49.0% Wales Male 48.8% 48.9% 48.9% 49.1% Newport Female 51.4% 51.3% 51.3% 51.0% Wales Female 51.2% 51.1% 51.1% 50.9%

The age structure of the population broadly reflects wider trends evident in Wales and the UK. Newport has an ageing population, and increased life expectancy and overseas immigration has resulted in moderate population growth which is likely to continue in the foreseeable future.

Population by age

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Newport Wales Newport Wales Newport Wales Newport Wales Newport Wales Newport Wales 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 over 65 years 19.1% 20.8% 19.3% 21.1% 19.5% 21.4% 19.6% 21.7% 19.7% 22.0% 16.3% 18.3% 50-64 years 14.9% 16.2% 14.8% 16.1% 14.6% 16.0% 14.7% 15.9% 14.8% 16.0% 45-64 years 24.9% 26.6% 25-44 years 26.3% 24.7% 25-49 years 33.0% 32.1% 32.8% 31.9% 32.5% 31.7% 32.3% 31.6% 32.1% 31.4% 16-24 years 12.0% 12.0% 12.5% 12.2% 12.9% 12.4% 13.1% 12.5% 13.1% 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 0-15 years 20.9% 18.9% 20.6% 18.7% 20.5% 18.5% 20.3% 18.3% 20.3% 18.2% 20.2% 18.1%

Population by Ethnicity The most recent Census data in 20112 shows the population of Newport is made up of 89.9% of people from a white background and 10.1% of people from a non-white background. The city has the second largest number of people from a non-white background of the Welsh Councils after Cardiff. The number of people from a non- white background has continued to increase with an estimated 6.6% of the population from a minority ethnic background in the city in 20093, an increase from 4.8% in 20014. This is a higher proportion of people from a non-white background than for Wales as a whole.

2 2011 Census (Table KS201EW), Office for National Statistics (ONS) 3 Annual Population Survey, 2009 4 2001 Census

Population from a non-white background 10%

0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Newport 7.9% 6.6% 7.3% 8.1% 9.5% Wales 3.1% 3.6% 3.8% 4.3% 4.2%

Source - Local Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey, year end

Over the past few years the city has experienced changes in the make-up of its population. The increase in the percentage of the population from a non-white background far outweighs the minimal national increase, coupled with a drop between 2007 and 2009.

Population by Target Group

Most recent figures indicate that 20.8% of the Newport population have a long term health problem where their day to day activities are limited by either a little or a lot5. As life expectancy grows, the incidence of limiting long term illness is likely to increase with age. See Limiting Long Term Illness.

The following data is the projected population up to 20306 for specific target groups. All figures are projected and are taken from population projections produced by the Statistical Directorate of the Welsh Assembly Government.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 Mobility Aged 65+ and attending A&E due to a fall 590 600 610 620 630 681 769 855 Aged 65+ and admitted to hospital due to a fall 601 611 622 632 643 693 783 870 Aged 65+ and unable to manage at least one domestic task on their own 10031 10207 10368 10527 10682 11,425 12,581 13,904 Aged 65+ and unable to manage at least one mobility activity on their own 4532 4604 4677 4753 4833 5,193 5,740 6,419 Aged 65+ and unable to manage at least one self-care activity on their own 8231 8375 8508 8642 8770 9,350 10,288 11,394 Physical Disability Aged 18-64 and have a moderate physical disability 6,567 6,544 6,548 6,560 6587 6,646 6,618 6,436 Aged 18-64 and have a serious physical disability 1,932 1,915 1,911 1,913 1918 1,955 1,982 1,910

5 2011 Census 6 Daffodil, Institute of Public Care (IPC)

Hearing Impairment Aged 18+ and have a moderate or severe hearing impairment 13,641 13,798 13,980 14,164 14343 15,258 16,753 17,813 Aged 18+ and have a profound hearing impairment 307 311 316 321 327 349 389 440 Visual Impairment Aged 18-64 and have a severe visual impairment 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 Aged 65-74 and have a moderate or severe visual impairment 722 745 760 772 780 775 765 855 Aged 75+ and have a moderate or severe visual impairment 1,433 1,452 1,474 1,498 1519 1,676 1,950 2,095 Aged 75 and over predicted to have registerable eye conditions 734 743 755 767 778 858 998 1,073 Learning Disability Aged 18 and over predicted to have a learning disability 2,567 2,577 2,588 2,601 2614 2,646 2,672 2,733 Aged 18 and over with a learning difficulty, predicted to display challenging behaviour 49 49 49 50 50 51 51 52 Autistic Spectrum Disorder Aged 18 and over predicted to have autistic spectrum disorders 1,062 1,067 1,073 1,080 1087 1,104 1,122 1,151 Dementia Aged 30-64 with early onset dementia 35 34 34 35 35 36 37 34 Aged 65 and over with dementia 1,723 1,744 1,772 1,802 1838 2,011 2,284 2,595 Carers Aged 16-24 and providing unpaid care 3,210 3,176 3,155 3,123 3,052 2,843 2,772 3,049 Aged 25-64 and providing unpaid care 12,705 12,728 12,766 12,802 12,874 13,059 13,127 12,828 Aged 65+ and providing unpaid care 4,383 4,484 4,565 4,638 4,696 4,904 5,267 5,764

Armed Forces

Data from the 2011 Census shows there were a total of 196 people employed in the armed forces either living in households or communal establishments in Newport. This compares to a total of 6,875 people in Wales. This is an increase from 135 people in 2001.

In May 2011 the UK Government published the Armed Forces Covenant. The Covenant outlines the moral obligation between the Nation, the Government and the Armed Forces and aims to improve support to the Armed Forces Community (including serving personnel, their families and veterans).

The dispersed nature of many members of this community has meant that they are often ‘lost’ in the system, and in spite of the great contribution, and sacrifices in many cases, they have made, this remains a group within society that continues to be inadvertently denied access to core services – housing, employment/benefits advice, health care, school places etc.

Asylum seekers, refugees and migrants

This information shows the percentage of non-UK born residents in Newport based on Office for National Statistics (ONS) information from the Annual Population Survey and Labour Force Survey. According to this data, Newport has the third highest number of non-UK born residents in Wales. Research reports indicate that

areas with a higher than average percentage of ethnic-minority residents are favourable with newly arrived people from ethnic minority backgrounds, making Newport a ‘favourable’ destination for migrants.

There are various ‘categories’ of migrants such as students, skilled workers, people joining their family and European Union (EU) migrants. People from Roma background could be considered as a sub-category of EU migrants due to their specific culture. The ONS criteria ‘non UK born’ would also include asylum seekers and refugees; needs vary per category and within categories.

Establishing the appropriate service is vital. Different categories of migrants have varying eligibility criteria with regard to accessing services and benefits, which can make assessments very complex. Some eligibility criteria for asylum seekers are different in Wales then in other parts of the UK due to legislation on devolved areas in Wales.

Total nr of residents, number and % of non-UK born residents (nrs in thousands) UK UK: nr UK: % Wales Wales: nr Wales: % Newport Newport: Newport: total nr of non-UK of non UK total nr of of non UK of non UK total nr of nr of non % of non residents born residents residents born residents residents UK born UK residents residents residents residents 01/07-12/ 07 60,133 6,342 10.5 2,942 129 4.4 139 11 7.9 07/08-06/09 60,762 6,843 11.3 2,959 140 4.7 139 11 7.9 04/09-03/10 61,037 6,936 11.4 2,968 147 5.0 139 9 6.5 04/10 -03/11 61,458 7,238 11.8 2,977 149 5.3 140 11 7.9 Census 2011 63,182   3,063 155* 5.1* 145 11* 7.9*  No data available * Does not include Republic of Ireland For the year 04/10 – 03/11, ONS distinguished between ‘EU’ and ‘non-EU’ non-UK born residents per Local Authority: according to these figures Newport had 4,000 EU and 7,000 non- EU non-UK born residents. ONS provided a caveat for the non UK born EU residents figures as ‘not reliable for practical purposes’

Asylum seekers and refugees The rate of turnover for asylum seekers in Newport was approximately 90% in 2012. A higher rate of turnover is likely to affect service provision and community cohesion.

Until 2001, relatively low numbers of asylum seekers and refugees decided to settle in Wales compared to some parts of the UK. The numbers of asylum seekers and refugees increased when Wales became a dispersal

area. The number of asylum applications in 2012 was slightly higher than in 2011: 21,7857 . Due to lack of information sharing by the Home Office, no information can be provided about the number of people seeking asylum who are residing in Newport. Information from other services indicates that the rate of turnover has remained approximately 90%. The high rate of turn is likely to have a medium to high impact on service provision and community cohesion, especially with decreased service provision due to cut backs. There is evidence that the population of refugees and asylum seekers living in Wales is distinct from the wider UK refugee population as more are concentrated in a limited number of towns and cities and drawn from a more limited range of nationalities and linguistic groups. Existing evidence suggests that very few refugees and asylum seekers specifically choose to come to Wales but very little is known about secondary migration flows to and from the country8.

Service provision to people seeking asylum and refugees by NGO’s has decreased significantly during the 2012 due to budget cuts. The dedicated service for young asylum seekers, YASS, has ceased in March 2013.

No Recourse to Public Funds and safeguarding issues such as honour based violence and trafficking are key emerging themes for service providers. For service users the lack of, or limited access to information and access to health services and tenancy support appear to be the key emerging themes

Migrants Various reports acknowledge that data collection systems for numbers of migrants have weaknesses, which puts limitations on their reliability. The lack of an agreed definition of ‘migrants’ further exacerbates reliable data collection when corroborating data from a variety of sources.

According to the data, the numbers for non-UK born residents for the UK and Wales show a steady increase over time, while the number/percentage of migrants appears in Newport to be more or less similar over the last few years, with an apparent ‘dip’ in 2009/2010. It is not clear whether this dip is reflecting the actual situation and if so, what the reasons are, or whether it is related to the way data is collected.

The 2011 census found that 8% of Newport’s residents is born outside the UK. Although Newport has a long history of attracting international migrants, the majority of people not born in the UK arrived in Newport relatively recently. 7.5% of Newport’s non UK born population arrived in the UK before 1961 but 57% arrived after the year 2000.

The top ten countries of origin of people born outside the UK is, in order of highest numbers: Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Poland, Philippines, Germany, South Africa, Nigeria, Italy, Zimbabwe. Feedback from Education and Social Services indicate that people from Roma background have very specific needs in addition to those of the general new-migrant population.

Migration is also likely to be a major factor in the youthfulness of Newport’s population. Over 50% of people were aged between 20 and 44 when they first arrived in the UK, with the most common age group being 20 to 24.

In January 2014, restrictions will be lifted for people from Bulgaria and Romania, which may lead to an increase of migrants from those countries. It will in part depend on possible changes in legislation whether this will have an impact on services.

The constant number does not reflect the rate of ‘turnover’ or transience of the migrant population. A report

7 http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/immigration-asylum-research/immigration-q4- 2012/asylum3-q4-2012 8 ‘Refugees living in Wales survey’, Welsh Government, 2009

from the Welsh Government appears to indicate that the rate of turnover in south east Wales is relatively low in comparison with other areas of Wales, but anecdotal evidence from Gwent Education Minority Ethnic Service (GEMS) seems to indicate otherwise. Although the migrant population is often referred to as ‘transient’, a East European migrant survey conducted in Newport in 2011 indicated that more than half of those questioned (64.4%) intended to stay in Newport for longer than 5 years. Availability of employment and accommodation were the main factors for moving to Newport. Results of the survey indicate that migrants make most use of parks, schools and churches; the use of other services is limited; the results of the survey indicate that many new-arrived people are not aware of services provided in Newport.

Service areas such as health, education, housing, social services and police report an increased involvement with migrants. However, it is not clear whether the incidence and level of involvement is lower, equivalent to or higher than expected, based on the migrant-percentage of population. Good communication with migrants is essential. Determining the language and suitability of format (e.g. written, audio, face to face, telephone) and support available, such as advocacy and interpretation are critical elements to ensure effective communication. This will in turn benefit budgets and customer care as it contributes to determining the appropriate service.

In addition, other issues highlighted for both migrants and asylum seekers include the need for more floating support for migrants, lack of a strategic approach to service provision for new migrants, no continuation of service provision for new migrants, and lack of coordination of services for migrants, asylum seekers, refugees and gypsy travellers.

Gypsy and Traveller population

In 2009, a Gypsy and Traveller Needs Assessment for Newport was carried out to supplement the Newport, Torfaen and Monmouthshire Local Housing Market Assessment report completed in 2007. This Assessment found a 10 year need for 29 residential (permanent) pitches for families living in, or with an affiliation to, Newport, and 7 transit pitches for families travelling through Newport. A residential pitch is used by gypsies and travellers that are permanently resident in Newport, whilst a transit pitch is used by those travelling through and stopping for a short period of time.

The Welsh Government Gypsy and Traveller Caravan Count on 19th July 2012 states that 58 caravans exist in Newport on private, tolerated and untolerated sites. The current City Council accommodation waiting list demonstrates an immediate need for 17 pitches (usually 2-3 caravans per pitch) and then a further 10 pitches up to the end of the Local Development Plan (LDP) period to 2026. Many of the occupants on the untolerated sites have been found to have accommodation elsewhere and the City Council does not have a duty to accommodate them. Two hundred of these caravans are on lawful private sites. The LDP will provide sites to accommodate the required need during its plan period 2011 – 2026.

There will also be many gypsies and travellers living in bricks and mortar accommodation, often because of the lack of sites. In addition to the need for accommodation, many gypsies and travellers face significant difficulties in accessing services (such as health and education), particularly when they are resident on unauthorised encampments. The health of gypsies and travellers is much poorer than that of the general population, and that of other marginalised groups. Factors which have a negative health impact on gypsies and travellers include lack of awareness of services, high levels of poverty, poor literacy skills and a lack of knowledge and awareness of health issues among the community.

Community Cohesion

Community Cohesion is what must happen in all communities to enable different groups of people to get on well together. A key contributor to community cohesion is integration which is what must happen to enable new residents and existing residents to adjust to one another.

The city has long been an ethnically diverse area but its demographic make up has remained essentially stable for a significant period of time. We are proud in Newport that we have always experienced good inter- community relations in the city and it is vital that all of the people and agencies in the city continue to maintain this commendable social cohesion.

Wealth and Deprivation

In Newport, neighbourhoods with some of the country’s highest levels of social deprivation sit next to some of those with the greatest affluence. The Wales Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) is the official measure of deprivation for small areas in Wales. The WIMD 20119 is made up of eight types of deprivation or domains: employment, income, education, health, community safety, geographical access to services, housing and physical environment.

There are 94 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) in Newport:

Year 2011 2008 Group % of LSOAs % of LSOAs % of LSOAs % of LSOAs % of LSOAs % of LSOAs % of LSOAs % of LSOAs in most in most in most in most in most in most in most in most deprived deprived deprived deprived deprived deprived deprived deprived WIMD domain 10% 20% 30% 50% 10% 20% 30% 50% All 16 30 43 56 15 28 40 52

Employment 16 26 32 57 10 20 27 47

Income 18 34 46 55 15 29 41 54

Education 16 27 38 51 19 27 41 55

Health 5 21 33 54 11 22 28 50 Community 26 38 51 68 27 38 50 67 Safety Access to 1 10 16 33 1 10 16 33 services Housing 6 15 28 42 6 15 28 42 Physical 44 65 71 86 51 69 81 87 environment

In Newport:  the LSOAs had deprivation score distribution over 97% of the range for Wales (unchanged from 2008)

 16% of LSOAs in Newport were in the most deprived 10 per cent (above Wales average) (increased from 2008 figure of 15%)

9 StatsWales

 56.4% of LSOAs in Newport were in the most deprived 50 per cent (above Wales average) (increased from 2008 figure of 52%)

 Similarly to 2008, there are higher than average levels of deprivation in all of the four most deprived categories (10%, 20%, 30%, 50%)

16 per cent of LSOAs in Newport were in the most deprived 10 per cent Wales Above Wales (ranks 1-190) average: 10% average 29.8 per cent of LSOAs in Newport were in the most deprived 20 per Wales Above Wales cent (ranks 1-380) average: 20% average 42.6 per cent of LSOAs in Newport were in the most deprived 30 per Wales Above Wales cent (ranks 1-570) average: 30% average 56.4 per cent of LSOAs in Newport were in the most deprived 50 per Wales Above Wales cent (ranks 1-950) average: 50% average

In the 10% most deprived wards there are:

Above average numbers of LSOAs in Newport for  Overall deprivation: 16% (2008 - 15%)  Employment: 16% (2008 figures average)  Income: 18.1% (2008 - 15%)  Community Safety: 25.5% (2008 - 27%)  Physical Environment: 46.3% (2008 - 49%)

Below average numbers for  Education: 5.3% (2008: 19%)

Numbers remain unchanged from 2008 data for access to services and housing.

The spread of ranks was:  The range (spread) was largest over income (1883).  The range (spread) was smallest over physical environment (1435)

The most deprived LSOA was Pillgwenlly 3.

Newport is ranked as the fourth most deprived local authority in Wales, with 16% of LSOAs in the most deprived 10% in Wales. Newport has 56% of its LSOAs in the most deprived 50% in Wales. In general, the Valleys and urban local authorities tend to be more deprived than those which are largely rural.

Child Index 2011

The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2011: Child Index is the official measure of relative deprivation for small areas in Wales for children. The indicators included in the Child Index are focused on the child population and the types of deprivation which might be expected to affect them.

The most deprived local authority is defined as the authority with the greatest fraction of its LSOAs in the most deprived 10% of all LSOAs in Wales. The local authorities with the highest percentage of their LSOAs in the most deprived 10% in Wales, as determined by the Child index 2011, are Cardiff (22.2%), Newport (18.1%), and Merthyr Tydfil (16.7%).

Urban areas tend to host the extremes of the relative deprivation distribution because urban areas tend to be the most socio economically segregated, and hence have the highest concentrations of deprived (or non deprived) people.

Local authority Number of % LSOAs in % LSOAs in % LSOAs in % LSOAs in LSOAs in local most deprived most deprived most deprived most deprived authority 10% ranks 1- 20% ranks 1- 30% ranks 1- 50% ranks 1- 190 380 570 950 Newport 94 18.1 38.3 44.7 57.4

The table below lists the ten most deprived areas in Wales, as determined by the 2011 Child Index, together with the four areas that were ranked between 1 and 10 in the Child Index 2008, but have moved out of that group in 2011. For Newport, Pillgwenlly 3 is ranked as the 6th most deprived area in Wales.

*It should however be remembered that an analysis of the underlying indicators is required in order to understand whether changes in ranks for an area are due to real changes in the level of the underlying indicators, and what the scale of that change is.

The main challenges for Newport and those which contribute to disadvantage are across educational achievement and employment, crime and anti social behaviour, health inequalities, and child poverty. Economic regeneration alongside community regeneration are key factors that can transform local neighbourhoods and the lives of local people. Focus must be on narrowing the gap between the least and most affluent areas of the city by addressing areas of activity including employment, health, housing, education, community safety and the environment.

Part 1: Involving Newport

A number of surveys and focus groups took place during 2010/11 asking people their views about Newport, including:

Summer 2010 Unified Needs Assessment survey circa 500 responses May/June 2010 Residents survey 2264 responses Winter 09, Summer & City contact centre surveys 740 responses Winter 10) November 2010 Newport Unlimited focus groups circa 30 attendees January/February 2011 ‘Involve Newport’ Shopping survey 560 responses January/February 2011 ‘Involve Newport’ Partnership survey 560 responses February 2011 Staff survey 460 responses

The following is a list of the most popular recurring themes that appear in all of the above activity. Further in-depth analysis regarding each theme is available if required.

1. City centre cleanliness Community safety and anti social behaviour Sport and leisure facilities 2. Attractive city centre Derelict properties across city / empty shops Shopping facilities – lack of choice and quality Food and drink facilities Heritage and culture Parking in city centre Pride in Newport / negative attitudes Regeneration progress Nuisance in city centre Activities and events across city Encourage local businesses Good public transport Built environment / urban planning e.g. city centre layout 3. Niche role for Newport Location and geography of city Countryside and wildlife Job, skills and employment

Given the diverse methods of data collection used and the high levels of participation involved, the information presented is robust and credible with over 4,000 views collected from residents, business people, children and young people. The common themes identified are testimony to the reliability and validity of this research.

Based on consultation undertaken in 2010, the following priorities were identified by local people:

The best things about Newport:

1. City centre, shopping, food and drink 2. Heritage, arts, and culture 3. Wildlife and open spaces 4. Sport and leisure 5. Attractions, events, and things to do 6. Social networks and community 7. Schools and education 8. Transport and location 9. Support and service 10. Children’s activities

What does Newport need:

1. More events and activities 2. Improved city centre and shops 3. More facilities and activities for children and young people 4. Cleaner and more pleasant environment 5. More leisure and sport 6. More wildlife and open space 7. Safer Newport, less crime, and more police 8. More jobs and employment opportunities 9. Better transport 10. Better public services

What would you change about Newport:

1. Cleaner, more pleasant environment 2. Improved city centre and shops 3. Safer Newport, less crime, and more police 4. More events and activities 5. More jobs and employment opportunities 6. More for children and young people 7. Newport is more eco friendly 8. More social interaction and community 9. Better public services 10. More wildlife and open spaces

What do you want to see more of in Newport:

1. More events and activities 2. Improved city centre and shops 3. More wildlife and open spaces 4. More for children and young people 5. Safer Newport, less crime, and more police 6. Sport and leisure 7. Cleaner, more pleasant environment 8. More social interaction and community 9. More jobs and employment opportunities 10. More heritage, art, and culture

What would you like Newport to be like in 3 years time:

1. More events, activities 2. Cleaner, more pleasant environment 3. Improved city centre and shops 4. A good place to live 5. Safer Newport, less crime, and more police 6. Regeneration completed 7. More wildlife and open spaces 8. More heritage and culture 9. More jobs and employment opportunities 10. Better transport

Overall, the following priorities appeared the most frequently across all questions:

1. City centre/shopping 2. Events, activities, and things to do 3. Clean and pleasant environment 4. Wildlife and open spaces 5. Sports and leisure 6. Heritage, arts, and culture 7. Community safety 8. Schools and education 9. Community and social networks 10. Transport links and location

Despite many people commenting that an improved shopping centre is a priority for the city, many also commented that the shopping available in Newport is one of the best three things about the city. This apparent contradiction may reflect the higher number of children and young people who took part in the survey whose responses regarding shopping facilities were more positive. The redevelopment of the city centre and diversification of the shopping experience in Newport, and the attraction of new leisure opportunities and events, were the factors that featured most often in responses to the survey (a total of 994 and 914 comments respectively). The next highest number of total comments were received relating to Newport's environment, it's wildlife and open spaces (462 comments) and a cleaner and more pleasant city (471 comments).

There were five Community Engagement Projects held throughout Newport during August 2010 with a total of 111 people taking part. The findings suggest that the main issues that are concerning Newport residents are:

1. Crime, violence and anti social behaviour 2. Alcohol and substance misuse 3. Agencies not working together, or communicating effectively amongst themselves and with the public 4. Lack of disabled access to facilities, and abuse and lack of consideration of disabled issues i.e. parking on pavements and misuse of the few city centre disabled parking spaces 5. Inadequate, inaccessible, inappropriate and potentially unsafe bus services 6. Lack of support for independent living and respite care 7. Lack of support for people with chronic conditions (including mental illness) and those who are terminally ill 8. Lack of childcare and baby friendly facilities 9. Lack of appropriate social and leisure provision for youths 10. Erosion of family and community values i.e. intergenerational respect and citizenship and prevention of domestic violence 11. Lack of appropriate and accessible leisure facilities for frail people (e.g. warmer swimming pools) 12. Need to regenerate City, remove or transform derelict buildings (respecting their heritage), make available affordable (free) parking to keep small bespoke shops in the city centre, and get rid of litter and mess from the pavements

A consultation exercise was undertaken in September 2010 with HYPE (Helping Young People to Excel) network members. Approximately 20 members participated in two workshops and the following issues were identified:

1. Gaps in organisations and departments communicating with each other especially in relation to safe guarding 2. Major retailers leaving city centre shopping centre 3. Unemployment and transitional support for school leavers from education into work 4. Lack of voluntary sector provision of youth services 5. Early identification/labelling of children 6. The need to focus on more parenting support 7. Lack of engagement with all citizens in service development/delivery and decision-making 8. Lack of funding for revenue services 9. More provision needed for youth counselling 10. Inequality of access to services 11. Poor access to affordable childcare

During September 2011, the Young Newport Children and Young People’s Partnership consulted with children across the city on their views about services. A bilingual questionnaire was distributed via schools and youth support services, and was also available on the Council and Young Newport websites. Specific groups of young people were also targeted via support groups, e.g. young carers, children with disabilities, young asylum seekers group, etc. Children and young people were asked to give a ‘yes’, ‘no’ or ‘sometimes’ response to 20 statements, and to provide a reason for each answer. In total, 1,569 questionnaires were returned and analysed.

The following positive responses were reported:  57% of young people reported feeling safe in their home/communities  66% of young people reported that they got all the support they need.  76% of young people reported that they knew who to talk to if they were worried or upset.  63% reported having opportunities both in Welsh and English and 58% reported having opportunities to use different languages.  58% felt part of their communities  62% of respondents feel free from bullying  72% reported having lots of opportunities to exercise and 63% of young people feel there are lots of opportunities to take part in sports activities.  67% felt there was lots of information to support you on how to be healthy.  86% of young people feel that they have lots of opportunities to learn and 75% reported doing well at school.  61% reported they had safe places to play.  70% of young people reported that they know their rights.  81% of young people reported they had access to a computer when they needed it.

The following negative responses (‘no’ or sometimes response) were reported:  42% of young people reported that they sometime get all the information they need whilst 11% reported they didn’t get the information they need.  41% of young people reported that they sometimes feel listened to by adults and 10% reported that they don’t feel listened to by adults.  41% reported that they don’t think there are lots of jobs in Newport and a further 28% felt there sometimes lots of jobs in Newport.  60% of young people reported that they don’t enjoy going to youth club and a further 14% reporting that they sometimes enjoy going to youth club.  67% reported that they had not heard of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child.

The survey suggests that in many cases, young people in Newport access a range of services/activities in their communities such as sports activities, safe places to play, and opportunities to learn and do well in school. The survey also indicated that the young people that responded to the questionnaire generally feel supported in terms of their needs, knowing who to speak to when they were worried or upset and have a good understanding of their rights. Over half the respondents felt safe in their homes/communities, feeling part of their communities and reported feeling free of bullying.

Equally however, the survey identified potential areas of need for services targeted at children and young people. In particular the survey indicated young people feel there are not enough jobs available for them in Newport, identifying the need for more work to be done to communicate with young people the types of employment/training pathways that are available. The survey also showed that 60% of young people reported not enjoying going to youth club. This might be because the young people asked as part of the survey don’t choose to attend youth club sessions. Therefore, further work would be needed to identify what kind of youth services they would be interested in. A further 67% of young people asked reported that they had not heard of the UNCRC. This is reinforced by other findings in the survey where 42% of young people sometimes felt they didn’t get all the information they need and 41% sometimes felt they are not listened to by adults. It might be that the young people are familiar with the principles of the UNCRC, but not necessarily of the terminology. This heightens the need for greater awareness raising around the rights agenda.

Using various qualitative data available can help to determine the priorities and issues facing the city and local communities. This will assist with service planning, priority setting, community mapping, profiling and tension monitoring.

By employing quantitative and qualitative techniques and utilising data from a variety of sources and partner organisations we can monitor the key issues facing Newport. This information will benefit all key LSB work areas and programmes.

Part 2: Single Integrated Plan Outcomes

The following information is based on the outcomes in the Single Integrated Plan and is an analysis of the headline population indicators along with the ‘data development agenda’ which identifies where new or improved data is required.

People in Newport achieve their full potential

Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy

People in Newport are healthy and thriving

People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community

Newport is a distinctive and vibrant city

People in Newport achieve their full potential (Skills and Work)

Employment Despite substantial inward investment in recent years, Newport has a significant section of its working age population that are either unemployed or economically inactive. This can contribute to social exclusion for working age people, children, families and communities in the city. Newport consistently experiences higher than average unemployment and numbers of workless households, with particular concentrations identified in several wards of the city. In common with much of the rest of the UK, unemployment amongst young people is particularly problematic.

The city has shifted away from heavy industry towards a greater proportion of employment in the service sector and currently over 50% of services are based in the public sector. The manufacturing sector in Newport remains well established although there has been a contraction in this sector with competition emanating from India and China. Skills are a key issue in terms of linking people to work and a number of people in the city possess no qualifications at all. This makes it difficult to access employment and there is an urgent need to drive up the skills base available in the city, not only to help people to participate in the local economy but also to enable the city to continue to attract inward investment and establish itself as a strong business location.

The economic inactivity rate for Newport remains relatively low at 23.4% in 2012, compared to 26.6% for Wales. Whilst Newport remains a significant centre for employment in the wider context, patterns of relative deprivation in the city contrive to ensure that economic inactivity levels vary across Newport with differences arising due to a range of socio-economic factors.

The employment rate has remained fairly static following a sharp decline in 2008/9 as the impact of the global recession hit Newport. The unemployment rate has reduced for both males and females, although remains higher for women than men, however a much sharper increase has been seen amongst males. This relatively static rate of employment indicates that despite current economic conditions Newport retains a strong core of knowledge-based roles with a continuing predominance of public sector jobs. ‘Children living in workless households’ is one of the Welsh Governments key poverty indicators. Data shows that Newport has a consistently higher proportion of children living in workless households than for Wales as a whole, with 24.4% of children in Newport living in workless households in 2011, compared to the Welsh average of 18.6%. Personal circumstances can impact the likelihood of living in poverty. This can include people with carer responsibilities, teenage parents and young people leaving care. In terms of absolute levels of poverty, lack of awareness about benefits is also a factor for people not maximising their potential income.

The key issues for Newport are therefore:  Diversifying the economic base, by developing a highly skilled workforce in the locality and providing an attractive investment or business start-up environment, is important in ensuring employment increases in the future  Reducing the number of young people not in education, employment or training through joint working, good practice, data sharing and developing appropriate programmes or interventions  Addressing the issue of workless households and associated poverty, and understanding the inherent link between economic and social aspects of poverty and designing interventions to effectively tackle these issues  Focusing on ward variances across the city by focusing on those areas that have higher levels of unemployment and workless households

Education and skills Newport schools continue to perform well at key stages 1, 2 and 3, where Newport is one of the highest performing local authorities in Wales. Performance at key stage 4 shows further improvement during 2011/12, although this still lags behind the Welsh average. The performance of pupils entitled to Free School Meals remains significantly below that of their peers across all key stages. At key stage 4 the gap in attainment has increased by 2.6 percentage points over the previous four years.

Educational achievement, skills and training opportunities are key priorities for Newport. There are 73.1% of people in Newport with a NQF (National Qualification Framework) level 2 or above, compared to 73.9% in Wales. There are 10.9% of people in Newport with no qualifications compared to 11% in Wales. However, there is a higher percentage of people in Newport with NQF 4 and above compared to Wales, with a rate of 33.4% in Newport compared to 31.5% nationally.

Across Wales, there is now a key focus on raising levels of literacy and numeracy, and breaking the link between poverty and poor educational outcomes. In 2010, literacy skills showed some improvement, although this has not been mirrored in recorded numeracy skills. At present, data is only available for Newport up to 2004.

Good progress has been made in relation to:  Performance levels at Key Stage 4 - the data shows that there has been continuous improvement in the average wider qualification points score and in the percentage of achieving the level 2 threshold, with performance remaining above the Wales average.  Consistent increases in Key Stage 2 Core Subject Indicator (CSI) attainment year on year, increasing from 80.3% attainment in 2006/07 to 86.1% attainment in 2011/12. The attainment levels in Newport remain strong in these CSI subject areas (first language, mathematics and science) and is within the top 3 authorities in Wales for each of these individual subjects.  Improvements in secondary school attendance over the last 3 years, increasing from 90% in 2007/08 to 91.9% in 2011/12, which is above the Wales average and 7th in Wales.

The key issues for Newport are therefore:  More progress needs to be made in narrowing the gap in attainment levels between pupils eligible for Free School Meals (FSM) and non-FSM pupils.  Primary school attendance has been consistent over recent years. However, it still remains slightly below the Wales average. Improving attendance rates will continue to be an area of development.  Although, significant progress has been made in reducing permanent secondary school exclusions over the last five years there was an increase on exclusions during 2010/11 and remained comparatively high in 2011.12.  Raising the level of educational achievement and promoting a culture of lifelong learning to improve opportunities for all people  Raising levels of literacy and numeracy, and breaking the link between poverty and poor educational outcomes

The focus for the next three years will be on improving results at key stages 4 and 5, attainment of children and young people entitled to free school meals, those who are looked after children (LAC) and other vulnerable groups as well as reducing the number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEETs) and further improving school attendance across the board. The development of clear progression pathways through the multiple learning pathways within the city is also a priority, along with the focus on basic skills and ensuring we continue to develop the higher level skills required by employers.

Economic Inactivity

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Data Set (Population Indicator) Economic inactivity Annual Local Labour force Survey / Annual Population Survey, Office for Data Source National Statistics (ONS) (available at Nomis and StatsWales)

Analysis Indicator This measure is the percentage of the local working age population (year end) who are neither in employment nor unemployed. The rate includes people who are either not actively seeking work or unavailable to start work, such as people looking after a home, retired people of working age, and students. Retired people over working age are also generally economically inactive, but are not usually included as this can distort the data where the age demographics of an area are weighted towards higher age groups. *Latest figure refers to the period year end to 30 September 2011.

Data trend At the end of 2010, Newport had the seventh lowest economic inactivity rate in Wales and a lower rate than the Wales average. The data show a rising trend for Newport up until 2009 followed by a notable decrease in 2010. The 2012 figure shows a six year low at 23.4% - 3.2% points lower than the national average. Whilst Newport remains a significant centre for employment in the wider Welsh context, patterns of relative deprivation in the city contrive to ensure that economic inactivity levels vary considerably across Newport, with differences arising due to a range of socio-economic factors.

What is driving the trend? The definition of ‘economically inactive’ is simplistic, and is influenced by a range of factors behind the data beyond simple availability for work. Data from the previous Census in 2001 show that economic inactivity rates are highest in those wards that experience greater overall relative deprivation, including Pillgwenlly, Tredegar Park, Ringland, and Bettws10. The current work being undertaken to develop Ward Profiles (Neighbourhood Working Project) clearly shows that significant differences are evident within wards and between wards.

Economic inactivity can be further broken down into those people who want a job, but are not classed as

10 NOMIS (2011) CAS Ward Profile (http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/ward/1308631372/subreports/caseinact_compared/report.aspx)

‘unemployed’ because they have not sought work or been available for work the previous four weeks, and those not wanting a job. Between 2008 and 2012 (year-end) Wales has shown a slight increase in economically inactive people wanting a job. In Newport the trend has been generally downward over the same period of time11:

Economic Inactivity - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Wanting a job Newport 30.8% 34.9% 29% 23.3% 26.7% Wales 23.4% 23.5% 24.9% 22.7% 24.9%

Economic Inactivity – 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Not wanting a job Newport 69.2% 65.1% 71% 76.7% 73.3% Wales 76.6% 76.5% 75.1% 77.3% 75.1%

It is important to note that economic inactivity rates are distorted by Newport’s relatively high student population, as students can distort rates in university areas in Wales considerably12. Excluding students from the analysis lowers the rate in Newport to 20.1%. The same effect can be observed for the Wales average, dropping the national rate to approximately 22.2% but still leaving Newport with the sixth lowest rate in Wales13. Whilst rates in Newport are much more similar to national figures once students are excluded, with the exception of 2008 the rate in the city has largely reflected a slightly lower level of economic inactivity than the rest of Wales and suggests that the headline rate for Newport (above 23.4%) continues to be skewed by its high student population:

Economic Inactivity 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (excluding students) Newport 23.7% 23.5% 22.1% 22.5% 20.1% Wales 23.3% 24.2% 23.8% 23.2% 22.2%

Once students are removed, we can see that only in 2008 did the economic inactivity rate in Newport climb above the national rate. 2008 saw significant contraction of employment in Newport’s jobs as a result of the first impact of the economic downturn on the city. We might therefore expect that redundancy levels in Newport would have some bearing on the trend.

The data trend also reflects gender differences in the labour market14. The rates of economic inactivity for both genders in Newport are at least slightly lower than the national rate. The rate of economic inactivity is lower for males than females, with a far higher number of women in the category of not wanting a job. This may reflect wider social factors such as females occupying traditional gender roles, particularly amongst some ethnic minority groups. Age is also a factor with the rate of economic inactivity across Wales showing an extreme upward trend for those over the age of 5015. Newport’s ageing population may also contribute to the trend, with the likelihood of being economically active once over the age of 50 increasing considerably, especially for males16.

11 NOMIS (2011) Economic Inactivity (http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038432113/report.aspx#tabeinact) 12 Welsh Assembly Government Statistical Directorate (2008) Economic Inactivity in Wales 2007 (http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2008/081124sb612008en.pdf) 13 Welsh Government (2011) Annual economic inactivity rates (excluding students) by Welsh local authority (http://www.statswales.wales.gov.uk/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=20707) 14 http://www.statswales.wales.gov.uk/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=20707 15 Welsh Assembly Government Statistical Directorate (2008) Economic Inactivity in Wales 2007 (http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2008/081124sb612008en.pdf) 16Ibid

Males 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Newport 20% 21.6% 18.9% 20% 17.1% Wales 21.6% 21.7% 21.7% 22% 21.1%

Females 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Newport 33.2% 32.9% 32.3% 31.4% 29.5% Wales 31.9% 32.9% 33% 32.1% 31.8%

Economic inactivity rates are also closely linked with disability. Of the 18,000 people with registered disabled status in Newport at the end of 200917, 9,000 were economically inactive, accounting for over a third of the total number of economically inactive people in Newport at the end of that year. Long-term, limiting illnesses have historically been ‘the major difference in economic inactivity between Wales and the UK’18.

The data trend may also reflect changes brought in by the Department of Work and Pension’s programme of welfare reform. Recent changes to Incapacity Benefit and the Employment Support Allowance have been intended to encourage people who are able to work away from claiming state support. As stated above the proportion of economically inactive people wanting to work is higher than the average for Wales, so the declining trend may reflect people previously in receipt of Incapacity Benefit returning to work. It is to be seen what the Government’s Welfare Reform policies will have.

Finally, economic inactivity also correlates with ethnicity, with UK trends identifying that people from some minority backgrounds have a greater likelihood of being economically inactive19 due to factors which may include concentration in deprived areas, or greater proportions of females occupying roles outside of the workplace. This trend is in evidence at the all-Wales level; whilst inactivity rates for both white and minority ethnic groups is higher in Wales than the UK, rates have historically been higher amongst non-white population groups20. As Newport is characterised by a higher proportion of minority ethnic people living in the city than is the norm across Wales, we can expect ethnic background to influence the overall economic inactivity rate. Many ethnic minority people live in the Pillgwenlly ward, which the 2011 census identified as having the highest rate of economic inactivity in the city.

Current initiatives There are a number of initiatives in place aimed at improving the skills of people, and engaging and supporting people into employment, including:  Business start-ups and support, including university spin-offs  Skills training  Community based work clubs  Pre-employment training courses  Expansion of the Want to Work services  Jobs fairs  Creation of a network of employers through the Skills Charter  Delivery of the Work Programme initiative in partnership with Working Links  Implementation of the Sport that Works programme  Various programmes targeted at young people not in employment, education or training  Families First – Narrowing the Gap, Family Skills

Annual Population Survey17 18 Ibid (http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2008/081124sb612008en.pdf) p. 5 19 National Audit Office Report (2008) http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/0708/increasing_employment_rates_fo.aspx 20 Welsh Assembly Government Statistical Directorate (2008) Economic Inactivity in Wales 2007 (http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2008/081124sb612008en.pdf)

Other initiatives are in place to encourage investment and economic regeneration, including:  Inward investment  Development of Friar’s Walk and other city centre developments  Digital City For further information see Regeneration Investment.

Areas of development Economic inactivity can reflect a range of socio-economic circumstances and even personal choice. The extent to which these factors affect the economic inactivity rate is not yet fully understood, although historic trends and analyses of supporting data sources suggest where fuller investigation might prove useful. The extent to which student populations, age, ethnicity and economic recession have influenced the data trend will prove instrumental in describing these effects more fully.

Measures need to target resources on the areas of most need. It is also acknowledged that there is a need to up-skill the local labour market, and to re-skill those who have lost their job due to the financial downturn, to ensure Newport has a more resilient, diverse skill base. Whilst Newport has a large proportion of people classified as economically inactive who would like to find a job, around 14% of the population have no qualifications at all. These people are in danger of being caught between welfare reform measures and an inability to access employment. Particular support for people whose socio-economic, health, or ethnicity may affect their prospects of leaving economic inactivity should be tailored accordingly. Other Factors  Employment by occupation  Qualifications  Earnings by residence  Number of redundancies/job cuts  Demography (age, gender, ethnicity, disability, etc)  Student population  Welfare reform Data Development Ward data in order to compare economic inactivity levels across the city and target resources appropriately. This is collected via the national Census and will in future form part of the Ward Profiles being developed through Neighbourhood Working.

Further socio-economic profiling of economically inactive people to understand the local context more fully.

Unemployment

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Unemployment rate Data Set (Population Indicator) Employment rate Employment by occupation Data Source Office for National Statistics (ONS and StatsWales)

Employment by occupation: 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Newport Wales Newport Wales Newport Wales Newport Wales Newport Wales Manager/Senior Official 13.7% 12.9% 11.5% 13.9% 13.7% 13% 14.6% 13.1% 9.3% 9.1% Professional Occupation 9.7% 11.7% 10.9% 11.8% 13.2% 12.6% 12.4% 12.5% 16.6% 17.7% Associate Professional & Technical 13.4% 13.7% 12.5% 13.7% 12.1% 14.1% 14.4% 14.7% 10.8% 12.1% Admin & Secretarial 11.2% 11% 13.3% 11.2% 10.8% 10.9% 12.2% 10.6% 10.9% 10.7% Skilled trades 9.4% 12.2% 9.4% 12.6% 9.7% 12.2% 9.7% 11.5% 12.2% 12.5% Personal service occupations 9.2% 9.2% 9.6% 9.1% 7.1% 9.6% 6.5% 10.2% 10.4% 10.2% Sales & Customer Service 9.1% 8% 9.2% 7.7% 10.8% 7.9% 7.6% 7.7% 8.9% 8.3% Process plant & machine operatives 10.5% 8.8% 8.6% 8% 7% 7.3% 7.5% 7.4% 7.2% 7.1% Elementary Occupations 15.3% 12.2% 15% 12.4% 15.3% 12% 14.4% 11.6% 12.8% 11.3%

Analysis Indicator This data is taken from the annual datasets from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) carried out by the Office for National Statistics. The measure of employment/ unemployment for this survey is based upon the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition (rather than claimant count) which can show higher (although arguably more accurate) unemployment figures as it captures individuals who are out of and actively seeking work but who may be ineligible for benefits (for example because they have high levels of personal savings). The ILO employment rate is the percentage of working age people in employment (yearend). The ILO unemployment rate includes a count of people not in employment who have sought a job within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks.

*Latest unemployment figure for the year end to 30 September 2012 is 9.6% for Newport, 8.4% for Wales and 7.9% for the UK. Latest employment figure for year end to 30 September 2012 is 69.2% for Newport, 67.1% for Wales and 70.6% for the UK21.

Data trend The employment rate remained relatively static following a sharp decline in 2008/09 as the impact of the global recession hit Newport. However, there was a noticeable increase in employment rates during 2011/12, bringing employment rates in Newport above the Wales average and leaving them at the highest they have been since 2007. As would be expected, the unemployment rate has increased for both males and females in line with the economic downturn. The recession has seen a much sharper increase in unemployment rates for males in Newport, taking this figure above both the Wales average and the percentage for females in Newport. However, the unemployment rate for both males and females in Newport has begun to decrease and currently stands at its lowest rate since 2008.

Unemployment rates – male/female Males 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Newport 5.7% 11.2% 12.6% 11.5% 10.6% Wales 5.8% 7.7% 10.3% 10% 9.3%

Females 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Newport 6.2% 7.6% 6.8% 8.7% 8.5% Wales 5.3% 5.8% 6.2% 6.7% 7.1%

What is driving the trend? Unemployment is generally a ‘lagging indicator’ and the most recent data included in the above table is from September 2012. Since that time the UK economy has been largely stagnant and unemployment at a national and Wales level has been fairly static. In Newport, unemployment has historically been concentrated in several wards of the city that experience greater than average levels of relative deprivation.

The manufacturing sector in Newport remains well established despite the decline of the steel industry, due to the presence of many businesses producing technological and electronic components, and offers access to highly skilled work through a number of internationally recognised companies. However this sector has seen significant contraction in Newport through the recession, whilst the rise in global competition from the rapidly developing economies in India and China also threaten these industries. Likewise, the construction industry, which was intended to generate significant employment in Newport through several high-profile regeneration projects, has also been curtailed by the recession. However, recent developments have seen the start of a number of high profile construction projects. The majority of those employed in production and

21 StatsWales

33 construction are males, who also remain more likely to occupy full time employment. At least one family member in full time employment is considered essential to a family unit in order to stay above the poverty line. The sharp increase in male unemployment following the recession, and contraction of manufacturing and construction in Newport could impact significantly on family incomes.

Newport also has a high reliance on the public sector to provide employment. This sector is increasingly vulnerable as a driver of employment with current UK Government policy aimed at reducing the size of the public sector. Women account for a far greater proportion of the public sector workforce than men and future job losses are predicted in this sector in line with wider UK policy. More recent data may therefore indicate a proportionately greater increase in unemployment amongst women, although females are also less likely to be in full time employment positions. This may also be compounded by cuts to the childcare element of working tax credits which, it has been predicted, will make it less economical for those in low paid positions with dependent children to work.

The discrepancy between earning rates in Newport by workplace and by residence and net inward commuting levels, along with the number of people in the city with no qualifications and high unemployment suggest that many of the more resilient, high value positions in the city are filled by people who are not resident in Newport. In addition, high levels of unemployment are endemic across south east Wales and jobs in Newport are sought out by people residing in neighbouring authority areas. This demonstrates the complex interaction between people, skills, and work in the city which is a key factor driving employment and unemployment trends. The challenge of fulfilling Newport’s traditional role as a regional employment centre for the south east Wales region whilst providing work to local residents is therefore one which is reflected in the data trend. In Newport, unemployment has historically been concentrated in several wards of the city that experience greater than average levels of relative deprivation. The recent development of ward profiles also shows that unemployment and economic inactivity are concentrated at a sub ward level.

The relatively static rate of employment in the city since the initial impact of recession demonstrates that a strong core of resilient, knowledge based roles has been retained in Newport, but also a continuing predominance of public sector jobs. Successful cities display a wide range of activities, and Newport has in the past concentrated on certain sectors in order to attract inward investment. Diversifying the economic base, by developing a highly skilled workforce in the locality and providing an attractive investment or business start-up environment, is important in ensuring employment increases in the future.

Other initiatives are in place to encourage investment and economic regeneration, including:  Inward investment

 Development of Friar’s Walk and other city centre developments  Digital City

Areas of development Whilst the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) claimant count statistics relating to key out of work benefits exclude those not claiming benefits from the count, it provides a very useful tool for placing employment and unemployment rates in context. It also has the strengths of being based on actual claims rather than a sample, and being able to detail duration of unemployment periods. For example, the claimant count gives an indication of the numbers of 16-24 year olds who are currently unemployed and claiming benefits. Employment rates are also lower for those aged 50 and above, with this group particularly vulnerable to becoming economically inactive. A full picture of the effects of age in relation to both employment and unemployment should therefore be established to allow a fuller explanation of the data trends above.

New industries, such as digital technology and green energy, are two areas identified in the Prosperous Newport plan and the Councils’ Economic Development strategy that Newport can target in order to build on existing strengths whilst also developing employment opportunities in resilient, high-growth and high-value industries. Other Factors This information needs to be viewed alongside data breaking down employment / unemployment by age and gender available from the DWP Claimant Count.

Information on employment amongst lone parents (where there is a strong gender bias).

It has also been suggested that the gaps created by some cuts in public services will largely be filled informally by women, which in turn will impact upon women’s ability to take up paid employment22. Data Development Data on unemployment and employment as with other key economic indicators are well provided. More up to date ward level data will shortly be available from the 2011 Census.

22 1. Sands, D. (2011) The impact of 2010-15 tax and benefit changes on women and men [online] available from: http://fawcettsociety.org.uk/documents/Single%20MothersSingled%20Out%20The%20impact%20of%202010- 15%20tax%20and%20benefit%20changes%20on%20women%20and%20men.pdf (accessed 7th December 2011)

Children Living in Workless Households

Data Set (Population Indicator) Proportion of children living in families in receipt of out of work (means tested) benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60% of the median income Annual Population Survey (ONS) (StatsWales) Data Source Department of Work and Pensions (Now collected by HMRC) (StatsWales)

Analysis Indicator These indicators measure children living in households who are in receipt of out of work means tested benefits or in receipt of tax credits (yearend). The ‘children living in workless households’ indicator is one of the Welsh Government’s key poverty indicators. These indicators do not, however, take into account

36 families that are not entitled to benefits, so may not present a true picture of the extent of poverty affecting families.

Data trend The indicators show that Newport has a consistently higher proportion of children living in workless households than for Wales as a whole, and that Wales has a higher proportion than the UK. The trend for both Newport and Wales as a whole is upward, with almost a quarter of children in Newport living in workless households in 2011.

What is driving the trend? The issues associated with the vicious cycle of worklessness and associated poverty are hugely complex. The impact of job cuts as a result of the recession and the associated lack of employment opportunities available have served to compound existing problems of inter-generational worklessness in some families. Equally, the personal circumstances of individuals can impact on their likelihood of living in poverty. For instance, young people leaving care, families with a disability or children with disabilities, people with caring responsibilities, and young teenage parents that have left school with poor qualifications. The cost of travel/transport can also be a barrier to work. Childcare costs can act as a significant barrier to parents accessing employment as can the flexibility of childcare provision.

Regarding absolute levels of poverty, lack of awareness of benefit entitlements due to the complexity of the benefits regime can result in families not maximising their potential income. There are some specific groups who are particularly susceptible to both poverty and inability to work. For instance, the introduction of the 'Leave to Remain' policy for asylum seekers resulted in an increase in those on benefits. Language skills could also be a barrier to accessing work for asylum seekers (given leave to remain), migrants, other transient groups and Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) groups, whilst qualifications and skill sets of migrants may not be recognised in the UK.

Welfare Reform could potentially have an adverse impact on families and children living in poverty.

Current initiatives There are numerous initiatives in place that are attempting to address the problems of poverty and worklessness in the city, including:  Job Centre Plus participated in Carers Week to attract people interested in a career in care work  Newport Food Festival to attract people into the catering industry  Marks and Starts programme- supported by Marks & Spencer provided unemployed lone parents with three months’ work experience with the possibility for more longer term work  Future Jobs Fund - new programme to be launched in April 2012  Getting involved in Newport Project - operating in 6 Community First areas provided 50 hours of tutor time a year for adults to enable them to access learning and training opportunities  A number of Government funded initiatives and programmes delivered by partners across Newport, such as the Work Programme  Support provided by Registered Social Landlords aimed at supporting tenants into employment, such as Newport City Homes Academy  The Neighbourhood Working Project is developing detailed ward profiles so that services can be better co-ordinated and delivered where need is greatest and in a way that is likely to be most effective

Areas for development Areas for further development or improvement that have been identified include:  Need for more effective targeting of resources, which could be achieved through the prevention

work development and Are a Partnerships  Need for better alignment between the skills sets of individuals and training/education pathways and the jobs market, including more engagement of employers in the design and delivery of learning  An extension of the Job Centre Plus community outreach work so that individuals are more likely to visit a Job Centre Plus advisor in the community rather than travel into the city centre  More support for vulnerable groups in poverty i.e. prison leavers, those with disabilities, care leavers, carers etc.  Need to improve literacy and numeracy skills  More flexible training options to better engage people and meet their needs Other Factors These indicators reflect the inherent link between the economic and social aspects of poverty and demonstrate that these aspects need to be viewed jointly in order to design interventions to effectively tackle the issues. Data Development More data needed to show variances between different client groups i.e. those in poverty in receipt of benefits and those in poverty who are in work (not in receipt of benefits).

Young People Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Working age people in low income families gain, and progress within, Families First Outcome employment Communities First Outcome Prosperous communities Percentage of 16 year olds (year 11 school leavers) not in education, employment or training (NEET) Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of 18 year olds (year 13 school leavers) not in education, employment or training (NEET) JSA Claimants including 18-24 year olds Pupil destinations data, Careers Wales (Year 11 - StatsWales), (Year 13 - Data Source Stats Wales) Office for National Statistics (Nomis)

Analysis Indicator Year 11 and Year 13 NEETS Reporting on NEET rates provides an indication of young people’s participation and contribution to the local economy. This indicator also helps to demonstrate young people’s progression onto other pathways such as further education and training enabling them to develop new and more specialised skills. The data includes young people who were classed unavailable due to sickness or youth custody.

The impact of a young person being NEET can be profound and over the longer term it can lead to lower earnings even after they have found employment. NEETs impact on the economy as a result of lost output, greater welfare payments and less tax contributions23. Research commissioned by the Audit Commission (in England) estimated that a young person who was NEET in 2008 would cost public finances on average £56,000 before they reached retirement age (this took into account welfare payments, costs associated to health, criminal justice service, loss of tax and national insurance revenues). The net cost effect on the 2008 cohort of NEET young people was calculated at a cost to public finances of over £13 billion and £22 billion in lost opportunity costs before retirement age24. Although the study only covered figures for England for a snapshot in time, it does provide an illustration of the financial cost NEETs have on the economy and society.

A survey undertaken by Barnardo’s looked at some of the personal circumstances to explain why some young people are more likely to become NEET. The survey work showed that most children had left education because they disliked school, i.e. found it boring or irrelevant to them. The survey also found that disengagement was associated with bullying, ill health, teenage pregnancy, unstable family backgrounds or poor social living conditions. The study highlighted that this created barriers to re-engagement with school as well as poor attainment, lack of self-confidence, disruptive home life and personal health problems associated with mental health and learning difficulties25.

JSA Claimants JSA Claimants shows the total number of people claiming Job Seekers allowance and the total number of claimants aged 16-24 years. The information shown refers to the month of September.

Data trend The rate of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) in Newport remains relatively high when compared to the rest of Wales.

23 Neil Lee and Jonathan Wright, Off the Map? The Geography of NEETS: A snapshot analysis for the Private Equity Foundation, The Work Foundation November 2011 24 Audit Commission, Against the Odds: Re-engaging young people in education, employment and training, July 2010. 25 Barnardo’s, Second Chances: Re-engaging Young People in Education and Training March 2009

Year 11 NEETS The year 11 graph shows there was a spike in the percentage of NEETs during 2008 at 10.4% compared with the Wales figure of 7.1%. Since 2009, the figures have shown a steady decrease, dropping to 4.9% in 2012. Whilst this is still slightly above the Wales average of 4.2% it does represent a significant decrease from the previous high.

What is driving the trend? The peak in the 2008 figures can be partly explained as a result of the recession. The recession has impacted on the availability of jobs and led to rising unemployment. As a result there have been fewer entry level jobs available for those who are leaving education. Young people who are NEET are disadvantaged when competing with better qualified and more experienced people. Careers Wales noted that there was a downward trend in job vacancies for 16-18 year olds in Newport during this same period. The situation is likely to have been compounded by cuts in public spending putting increased pressure on council and other partner’s budgets. The loss of jobs in the public sector is also likely to have had an impact on the opportunities available for young people. Another factor to consider was the lack of coordination in Newport during 2008 between partners to tackle the NEET issue for year 11, with no clear strategy embedded for collaboration.

Another contributory factor that led to the peak in the percentage of year 11 NEETs during 2008 was the blockage that existed in the availability and timeliness of training provider placements for young people. The New Skill Build programme was introduced during 2007/08. However, initially there wasn’t enough capacity for young people to start placements due to delays experienced in accessing funding for retrospective support for clients. Since 2008, Careers Wales has adopted clearer guidance on how it defines and monitors NEETS in Newport, which has helped improve the identification and tracking of young people. Improved information sharing between partners has fostered better collaborative working between partners resulting in a more co-ordinated approach avoiding duplication of effort.

Although 2009 saw a decline in NEET figures for Newport, it still remained the highest in Wales. Newport lacked a variety of training providers to enable young people to access their pathways of choice. For example, there were no training providers operating in Newport at the time that could provide pathways to the construction and automotive industry. However, this was addressed in 2010 when training providers established a base in Newport to provide a range of pathways for young people, and during 2009 a NEET Strategy was published enabling a more focused and collaborative approach to tackling NEETs in Newport amongst key partners.

During 2010, there was a more significant drop in the NEET figure for year 11s in Newport. This can be attributed to an improvement in training providers and better coordination between partner organisations. An increased number of providers now operate in Newport such as ITEC, Learn About, A4E and the expansion of premises/capacity at Rathbone providing a wider range of training placements for young people to suit a variety of needs.

Improved collaboration between partners has also been reinforced by the establishment of four sub-groups in the form of a pre-16 group, 16-18 group, 18-25 group and a Training Provider Network. The pre-16 group focused its attention on developing prevention work whilst the 16-18 group and 18-25 group were more operational in their focus. The Training Provider’s Network brought together the key training providers in the area to promote better co-ordination of training pathways. The Training Provider Network has now become a Learning Provider Network with a wider, 14-19 remit. The 16-18 and 18-25 groups have now merged to provide a more co-ordinated focus.

Current initiatives As well as promoting better joined up working the sub-groups mentioned above have also been responsible for developing the Good Practice Guide for NEETs, Information Sharing Consent Form (for 16-18 year olds), Keeping in Touch events as well as a summer programme aimed at engaging young people who are NEET in skill based workshops.

During 2011, there was an increased focus on pre-16 work in relation to preventing young people becoming NEET. A key success during this period was the better identification of potential NEETs as a result of the good practice guide. A second summer programme that was commissioned during 2011 by the pre-16 Sub-group on behalf of the Learning Area Network (LAN) helped to increase the number of young people accessing training places who would otherwise be at risk of becoming NEET. This programme has focused on skills development, confidence building as well as social and physical activities.

The focus has been to ensure there are mechanisms in place to identify young people at risk of becoming NEET early, rather than using resource to find them and re-engage them once they have become NEET, whilst still retaining a safety net for those who do become NEET. Work has been undertaken with schools to map young people who are at risk of becoming NEET and this data is enabling key partners to agree how best to target resources in the future. In addition, an improved Information Sharing Protocol has been developed in partnership with other agencies that is in line with the new Wales Accord on the Sharing of Personal Information (WASPI) Framework. The Local Authority has also worked with schools and learning providers to provide an exemplar Service Level Agreement for the provision of collaborative placement for pupils 14 - 16. The Service Level agreement ensures that appropriate safeguarding training and standards are in place and that outcomes for students are identified prior to the commencement of placement. The SLA is supported by a comprehensive pupil profile that identifies student details and individual arrangements for the placement

Areas of development An area of development for the future will be on partners working more closely together to progress joint funding bids when implementing new NEET programmes. There have been too many externally funded, uncoordinated programmes in operation within the Local Authority area, competing with each other for participants.

The issue of young people becoming NEET is a wider societal issue where partners have to be jointly accountable for both the problem and the solution. Whilst this approach has paid dividends over the past four years we still have some way to go in ensuring each partner is focused on the role they have to play in the solution. Some good evidence of this starting to emerge is the work of the community sports development programme that has been targeting NEETs and engaging them through a range of sport/physical activities. This has had positive results in terms of re-engaging young people in education, employment and training.

Far more needs to be done to ensure employers are part of this process and have a meaningful engagement with education, learning providers and young people themselves. There is a perception amongst employers that young people do not leave education with the necessary skills (including employability and work readiness) to enter the labour market successfully.

Year 13 NEETS Data trend The year 13 data only provides an indication of young people who attended school to undertake A level qualifications. It doesn’t take into account potential NEETs who attended college or dropped out of school part way through the A level course. Therefore, the year 13 indicator doesn’t provide us with accurate figures in relation to post 16 NEETs.

The Year 13 graph shows that the percentage of year 13 NEETs has been consistently increasing since 2007. Between 2007 and 2010 year 13 NEETs increased by 3.7 percentage points, to 6.9% in 2010. In 2007, the year 13 NEET figures (of 3.2%) were 1.4 percentage points below the Wales average (of 4.6%). However, by 2010 Newport year 13 NEETS slightly exceeded the Wales average by 0.3% at 6.9%. %. The latest figures for 2012 show that NEET figures have remained fairly consistent at 7%. Figures between 2010 and 2012 suggest that the rate of increase has reached a plateau (Note: the data includes young people who were classed unavailable due to sickness or youth custody).

What is driving the trend? There are a number of factors that can be attributed to the increase in year 13 NEETs emerging. Similar to the year 11 NEETs, the current economic climate has increased the difficulty in accessing jobs as fewer employers are recruiting. Where vacancies do arise, there are fewer employers recruiting young people into posts who lack experience of work. Another key reason that could explain the rise in year 13 NEETs is the reluctance of young people to progress onto university due to the cost of tuition fees and the longer term impact it has on their debt levels. Fewer young people may also be progressing onto university due to the reduction in the number of university places that have been available over the last couple of years as a result of the reduction in government spending. Some vulnerable groups have also been affected by changes in policy. For example, young people 18 years plus who have learning disabilities no longer have access to the extended guarantee that would promise an offer of training. Now all young people 18 years plus with learning disabilities must access generic support via Job Centre Plus.

Current initiatives At the national level, the Welsh Government has recognised the need for there to be alternative pathways available to year 13 school leavers who don’t continue within education. The Welsh Government aims to develop an Apprenticeship Match Scheme whereby it will allow companies to advertise apprenticeships across Wales. Companies will also be offered a financial incentive of £50 per week for taking on an apprentice. Another initiative to be introduced by the Welsh Government in 2012 is the Jobs Growth Wales scheme that will provide funding for 4,000 jobs over a 6 month period to give young people work experience to enable them to move onto longer term employment.

At a more localised level in Newport, the Job Centre Plus, After Care Team and Community Development Team have been working together to target a programme at young people who have been in care to enable them to access appropriate education, training and employment pathways. The Wales Council for Voluntary Action (WCVA) gateway funding (via European Social Fund) is aimed at NEETS who are not in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance and Educational Support Allowance, which supports providers to work with NEETs. The Future Jobs Fund is part of a young person’s guarantee, and it provides an opportunity for unemployed young people to access paid work (minimum wage) for a period of 6 months. The scheme ran from October 2009 to March 2011 providing young people aged 18-24 years old who had been receiving Job Seekers Allowance for 6 months or more.

Areas of development Key areas of development for the future include a focus on data sharing between other key partners such as colleges and Job Centre Plus. For example, colleges need to collect leavers/destinations data consistently in line with how data is currently collected by Careers Wales to improve the tracking and monitoring of young people leaving college. There also needs to be an increased focus on young people’s readiness for pursuing their chosen pathways. This may involve developing programmes or interventions that will better prepare them for education or employment. Also, as previously stated, more needs to be done to engage employers at an early stage so that young people are better placed when they do leave education.

JSA Claimants 18-24 year olds Data trend The percentage of 18-24 year olds claiming Job Seekers Allowance in Newport has been consistently above the Wales average over the past six years and the trend over this time has been upwards, rising from 6% in 2007 to 11.4% in 2012. It reached a high point of 11.7% in 2009, following the global recession. Whilst it has mirrored the trends for 18-24 years olds and the population as a whole within Newport and across Wales, the rate for 18-24 year olds in Newport remains significantly higher than other areas.

What is driving the trend? The issues affecting 18-24 year olds are a continuation of the issues at Year 11 and Year 13. The general economic climate has meant greater competition for jobs, with many older, higher skilled and more experienced people competing for the jobs that young people would have previously accessed. This seems to have had a more significant impact on young people in Newport compared to the Wales average, possibly due to the greater dependency on employment in the manufacturing sector within Newport. This has been exasperated by the increase in the numbers of young people leaving Year 13 and becoming NEET.

Some significant programmes are now being put in place in Newport that are specifically aimed at supporting people back in to employment. Families First - Children and Young People Skills and Families First - Family Skills are both designed to engage with and support people in to work through employment and skills based provision. The Communities First programme has a renewed focus on education and employment through the new cluster model.

Areas for development A great deal of research has been undertaken regarding the underlying causes that result in young people becoming NEET. Evidence suggests that the most significant way of reducing the NEET figure is to retain young people within education, learning and employment, rather than expending resources attempting to re-engage with young people. The early intervention and prevention methodologies and approaches being used by partnerships within Newport should, ultimately, have a long term impact on the numbers of young people unable to maintain education or employment opportunities. However, more should be done now to

44 engage employers within learning environments so that young people have the opportunity to gain the skills needed to make employment sustainable and employers have the opportunity to influence the learning environment. Other Factors None identified. Data Development The current data sets do not provide an indication of the core group of young people who remain NEET for six months or more and equally it doesn’t provide an indication of the movement of young people in and out of NEET status over a period of time (repeat NEET/s churn). More sophisticated data monitoring in these areas would enable us a better understanding of NEET sub-groups and how to best target resources.

Key Stage 4

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Communities First Outcome Learning communities Key Stage 4 performance:  Key Stage 4 (age 16) average qualifications point score Data Set (Population Indicator)  Percentage of pupils at Key Stage 4 achieving the level 2 threshold  Percentage of pupils at Key Stage 4 achieving the level 2 threshold inclusive of English/Welsh and mathematics Data Source Newport City Council

Analysis Indicator A range of population indicators are published to measure attainment at the end of key stage 4 (age 16). The key indicators are: 1) Leavers without qualifications 2) Level 1 threshold 3) Level 2 threshold 4) Level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and mathematics 5) Core subject indicator 6) Average wider point score 7) Capped wider point score

Data trend Provisional results indicate continued progress in 2010/11, with improvements in 6 out of the 7 indicators in 2011 and the Level 2 threshold improving so that it is above the Wales average. In 2011 the level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and mathematics declined slightly. This has since improved beyond 2010 performance and shows an improvement over a three year period. It is still below the Wales average and remains a key priority for all schools and the Education Service.

This improvement in performance is also reflected in the decreased number of year 11 students leaving education, training or employment without a recognised qualification. In 2010, Newport had the lowest rate of school leavers without qualifications in Wales, at just 0.1% (2 students) and in 2011 this has decreased further to no students leaving compulsory education without a recognised qualification.

What is driving the trend? Historically, performance at key stage 4 in Newport has been lower than the Wales average. A targeted strategy has been implemented across Newport over the last three years to improve attainment at Key Stage 4. This has included a range of strategies and targeted interventions and support by schools, the Education Service and partners. This strategy has resulted in improved results at a faster rate than for Wales as a whole.

Curriculum changes have led to more appropriate Learning Pathways for many students in key stage 4 and this is evident in the strong increase in the Level 2 threshold and the Average Qualifications point score, which have risen 21 percentage points and 94 points respectively since 2007. The rate of progress for the Level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and mathematics is slower, but also exceeds the national trend.

Current initiatives See above. Other Factors Schools and the education service analyse a wide range of performance measures and population indicators on an annual basis, informing service delivery and priorities for improvement. Data Development None identified.

Educational Attainment (Poverty)

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Children, young people and families, in or at risk of poverty, achieve their Families First Outcome potential Communities First Outcome Learning communities Percentage of pupils entitled to free school meals achieving the Key Stage 2 Core Subject Indicator Percentage of pupils entitled to free school meals achieving the Key Stage Data Set (Population Indicator) 3 Core Subject Indicator Percentage of pupils entitled to free school meals achieving Key Stage 4 level 2 threshold inclusive of English/Welsh and mathematics Data Source Newport City Council

Analysis Indicator The Child Poverty Strategy for Wales, issued in February 2011, uses the percentage of pupils’ eligible for free school meals (FSM) who achieve the level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and mathematics at Key Stage 4 as one of the six key performance indicators to measure progress against the objectives of the strategy. Across Wales, there is a strong link between achievement and the level of entitlement to free school meals: as the level of FSM entitlement increases, the level of achievement decreases.

Data trend At Key Stage 2, the gap in attainment between FSM and non-FSM pupils has been decreasing at a faster rate for Newport than for Wales as a whole across the last three years where figures were available for Wales. In 2010, the gap for Newport was 17.9 percentage points compared with a national gap of 22.4. This reduction is due the attainment of FSM pupils increasing at a faster rate than for non-FSM pupils, from 61.3% to 70.4% (9.1% point increase) compared with 84.1% to 90.5% (6.4% points). However, the rate of improved performance was significantly higher for non FSM pupils over the last academic year.

This is also true for Key Stage 3 where the gap for Newport has reduced from 33.6 percentage points in 2008 to 28.3 in 2012, whilst the gap is reducing at a slower rate for Wales as a whole from 32.3 in 2008 to 31.5 in 2010 (last available figures). The rate of improvement for FSM pupils at KS3 is even greater than at KS2, with FSM pupils’ attainment increasing from 34.9% in 2008 to 51.3% in 2012. However, during 2012 there was a slight widening of the gap in attainment within Newport.

At Key Stage 4, the gap in performance has decreased significantly for the level 1 threshold and level 2 threshold over the last five years:  Level 1 threshold: 20 points gap in 2007  10 points gap in 2011  Level 2 threshold: 34 points gap in 2007  21 points gap in 2011

However, whilst the performance of FSM pupils has increased for the level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and mathematics from 16.67% in 2009 to 19.8% in 2012, the gap between FSM and non-FSM pupils has not decreased due to the rise in attainment for both groups during this time.  Level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and mathematics: 32.6 points gap in 2007  35.2 points gap in 2012

What is driving the trend? & Current initiatives As part of the School Effectiveness Framework, over the last three years there has been a targeted strategy in place by schools, the local authority, and the wider One Newport partnership to improve outcomes for pupils entitled to free school meals. This strategy includes a wide range of programmes and interventions, including targeted literacy and numeracy interventions and catch-up programmes, the introduction of Learning Coaches in secondary schools, and support from youth workers in secondary schools.

Areas of development Continuing to improve the attainment of FSM pupils, and narrowing the gap in attainment between FSM pupils and non-FSM pupils continues to be a priority in the Children and Young People’s Plan 2011-14, and for all Newport schools, the Education Service, Families First and the Young Newport partnership. The literacy, numeracy, and key stage 3 and 4 strategies will all continue to be implemented, focusing on improving teaching and learning and outcomes for learners. Other Factors None. Data Development Schools and the education service analyse a wide range of performance measures and population indicators on an annual basis, informing service delivery and priorities for improvement.

Welsh Speakers

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of pupils attending Welsh Medium schools Data Source Newport City Council

Analysis Indicator This measure shows the proportion of primary school age children attending Welsh-medium primary schools over the last 5 years. This data provides an indicator of the proportion of primary school age children in Newport who are able to speak Welsh fluently, and is more accurate than other available measures such as Census data.

Newport sets out the following commitment in the statutory Welsh Education Scheme 2006-2011: To ensure that Welsh-medium education is available to all children whose parents/guardians wish them to receive their education through the medium of Welsh, and this within reasonable travelling distance from the children’s homes. This means children of pre-school age and above.

Awaiting information for 2012/13.

Data trend & What is driving the trend? Demand for Welsh-medium education has increased across the south east Wales region over recent years. Newport’s first Welsh-medium primary school, Ysgol Gymraeg Casnewydd, opened in 1993 and remained the only Welsh-medium primary school until 2008. In 2006, the Council undertook a parental demand survey to assess demand for Welsh-medium education. The findings of the survey, combined with increasing numbers on roll at Ysgol Gymraeg Casnewydd, indicated that a second Welsh-medium primary school was required in the west of the city.

In September 2008, Ysgol Gymraeg Ifor Hael opened in Bettws with 27 children age 3-5. The number of applications for the school increased quickly, and 38 children were admitted to the reception class in 2009 and 2010 (admission number = 28).

A second parental demand survey was conducted in 2010, which again indicated that demand for Welsh- medium education is likely to continue to increase each year. In September 2011, the Council opened the third Welsh-medium primary school, Ysgol Gymraeg Bro Teyrnon. The school opened with 16 children age 3- 4, and both Ysgol Gymraeg Casnewydd and Ysgol Gymraeg Ifor Hael remain fully subscribed for reception class places. Ysgol Gymraeg Bro Teyrnon is currently sharing a site with Maindee Primary School until a permanent location is confirmed.

Each year, 95% - 100% of pupils leaving Welsh-medium primary schools continue to Welsh-medium secondary education, which is available at Ysgol Gyfun Gwynllyw, the regional school in Torfaen. Therefore, the majority of children who attend Welsh-medium primary schools go on to study through the medium of Welsh and achieve Level 2 qualifications and above through the Welsh language.

Current initiatives The Council is currently preparing a new Welsh in Education Strategic Plan, as required by the Welsh Government. This plan continues the Council’s commitment to providing Welsh-medium education in accordance with parental demand.

Areas of development The proportion of children in Newport attending Welsh-medium schools will continue to be driven by parental demand. Therefore, the Council does not have a target for the number of children attending Welsh- medium schools in future. However, the Education Service does have a target to ensure that every child seeking a place in a Welsh-medium primary or secondary school is offered a place within a Welsh-medium school. This indicator has been monitored by the service for the last three years, and to date all applicants for Welsh-medium schools have received an offer of a place at a Welsh-medium school. Other Factors Percentage of people aged 3 and over who speak Welsh (Annual Population Survey) – however, data reliability is limited as often the survey is completed by parents who have children learning Welsh in school. Latest figure for 2010 says that 18.9% of people in Newport speak Welsh. Data Development Parental demand surveys should continue to be conducted periodically to ensure that the Council is able to proactively plan for any changes in future demand for Welsh-medium education.

School Attendance

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Children, young people and families, in or at risk of poverty, achieve their Families First Outcome potential Communities First Outcome Learning communities Percentage of half day sessions missed in primary schools due to absence Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of half day sessions missed in secondary schools due to absence Data Source Newport City Council

Analysis Indicator These data sets provide a snapshot of attendance rates for Newport against the Wales figures for both primary school and secondary school attendance.

Primary school absence Data trend Primary school absence has been relatively consistent over recent years, and remains slightly above the Wales average, although the trend over the past five years has been downward. Performance is in line with similar authorities, e.g. close to Cardiff and Wrexham and better than Swansea.

What is driving the trend? Since 2008/2009, the Education Service has focused dedicated resources to primary school clusters where attendance has been identified as below expected levels. This has resulted in reduced absence across the schools in these clusters which has impacted on the figures for Newport as a whole.

Secondary school absence Data trend Secondary school absence has decreased over the last five years from 10.0% in 2007/08 (20th in Wales) to 8.1% in 2011/12. However, whilst Newport has maintained a position below the Wales average over the previous two years the rate of absence in the last year was above the Wales average. In 2011/12 a total of 211,452 sessions were missed across Newport schools, a reduction from 215,837 in 2010/11 (4,385 fewer sessions missed).

Three of the authority’s schools are in the top quarter for attendance rates when benchmarked against similar schools, with one in the 2nd quarter, two in the 3rd quarter, and two in the bottom quarter. Five of the eight schools reported an increase in attendance rates during 2011/12.

What is driving the trend? Unauthorised absence rates remain above the national average; this is in part a reflection of school and local authority policy not to authorise holidays in term time.

Current initiatives The focused ‘action on attendance’ project continues including media campaigns and truancy monitoring. This project is now focusing on sustaining the gains made in secondary schools and reducing primary school absence, which is currently above the Wales average.

A multi-agency team is working with secondary schools with the highest absence rates to introduce further strategies to reduce absenteeism.

Areas of development Continuing to reduce secondary absence rates will remain a priority for schools, the Education Service and the One Newport partnership. A targeted strategy to reduce primary absent rates to below the national average will also be a key priority for Newport over the next three years. Other Factors None. Data Development The education service monitors absence at school level on a monthly basis. Data is available by school, year group, gender, ethnicity, Additional Learning Needs (ALN) status, LAC status, etc.

The Welsh Government is introducing a new national framework for the analysis of exclusions and absence data, which will enrich the data already monitored closely by schools and the Education Service.

Fixed Term Exclusions

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Rate of permanent exclusions in secondary schools Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of school days lost due to fixed-term exclusions in secondary schools Data Source Newport City Council

Analysis Indicator These two data sets provide a snapshot of permanent exclusions and fixed term exclusions in Newport secondary schools against the Wales figures. The first dataset presents the rate of permanent exclusions per 1,000 of pupils and the second data set shows the percentage of school days lost due to fixed-term exclusions.

Permanent secondary school exclusions Data trend Secondary school permanent exclusions have reduced significantly over the last five years from 31 pupils in 2005/06 to just ten pupils in 2009/10 (1.15 per 1,000). This placed Newport 16th in Wales, a slight improvement from 17th in 2005/06. However, secondary school permanent exclusions increased slightly to

16 pupils in 2010/11 and whilst 2011/12 saw a slight decrease, the figure is still above the 2007/08 rate.

What is driving the trend? & Current initiatives In response to this identified rise in permanent exclusions throughout 2010/11, provision for young people not educated in school has been restructured, with the opening of the Cylchdroi Centre (pupil referral unit) in 2011, which replaces the former Queen’s Hill and Brynglas LSPC structures. The managed move protocol has also been revised, along with the operation of the associated pupil placement panel. Early indications are that permanent exclusions at lower at this point in the year compared with the same point in 2010/11 and this has been borne out by the decrease in the yearly rate.

Fixed-term secondary school exclusions Data trend & What is driving the trend? The percentage of secondary school days lost through fixed-term exclusions has remained at around 0.1% for the last five years, below the Wales average . The overall number of incidents of secondary school fixed-term exclusions has reduced from 1,215 (116 per 1,000 pupils) exclusions of five days or fewer in 2005/06 to 566 in 2009/10 (53.5 per 1,000 pupils, 7th in Wales). Exclusions of six days or more have reduced from 123 in 2005/06 (11.2 per 1,000 pupils) to 79 in 2009/10 (7.5 per 1,000 pupils, 14th in Wales). The introduction of Learning Support Centres in all secondary schools has supported this reduction.

Current initiatives The local authority does not tolerate unofficial school exclusions and has addressed this through its monitoring, support and challenge to schools. This was identified as an issue in two secondary schools and a change in leadership at the schools in conjunction with support from the local authority has resulted in significant impact.

Areas of development The Welsh Government is introducing a new national framework for the analysis of exclusions and attendance data, which will enrich the data already monitored closely by schools and the Education Service. Other Factors None. Data Development See Areas of development above.

Adult Qualifications

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Communities First Outcome Learning communities Percentage of working age adults with no qualifications Qualifications NQF level 2 above Data Set (Population Indicator) Qualifications NQF level 3 above Qualifications NQF level 4 above Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey (ONS) Data Source (StatsWales) and Nomis (labour market statistics),

Analysis Indicator These measures show the percentage of working age adults with and without qualifications at year end. The information is taken from the Annual Population Survey (APS). The survey asks respondents for qualifications that they hold, and from this information the highest qualification held by the respondent is calculated. The highest qualifications are grouped into National Qualification Framework (NQF) levels.

Data trend Since 2004, the percentage of adults with no qualifications has been decreasing gradually except for a rise between 2007 and 2008. The overall percentage decrease in the adults with no qualifications between 2006 and 2011 is 3.5%. The latest figure for Newport shows that it has dropped below the Wales average for the first time since 2006 and now stands at 10.9%, against a Wales average of 11%.

For Newport, the percentage of adults with qualifications has increased steadily since 2006. Those with NQF 2 has increased by 5.6%, those with NQF 3 has increased by 9% and NQF 4 by 7.8%.

What is driving the trend? Performance against this indicator can be attributed to the increased range of learning opportunities that are available within the community to suit adults of all levels of capability. It is thought that the fear of unemployment due to the recession may have had an impact on increasing the numbers of adults gaining qualifications and up-skilling to diversify and change careers.

The drop in the percentage of adults with no qualifications can also be attributed to improved partnership working and the availability of courses across the wider community. Increased awareness raising within communities of training opportunities available and access to adult education has also had an impact.

Current initiatives The Department for Children, Education, Lifelong Learning and Skills (DCELLS) funding strategy has impacted on reducing the percentage of adults with no qualifications.

The current performance figures also reflect the increase in the number of people who are now leaving formal education with qualifications. Although performance against this indicator has been improving this could be become hampered by increases in tuition fees, poor access to transportation, and non-recognition of overseas qualifications.

Areas of development There is scope to undertake more joint planning of adult education programmes between key partners in the city, as well as share information and expertise. Work through Communities First and Families First needs to be co-ordinated at a local level to ensure maximum impact.

See Economic Inactivity. Other Factors Working age population with NVQ 4 and above, NVQ 3 and above, NVQ2 and above, NVQ 1 and above, and other qualifications. Data Development There is the need to further breakdown this indicator to clearly represent evidence of quality of course delivery by staff, delivery methodology, quality of qualifications and progression to enable key partners including employers and training providers to better make comparisons and make informed decisions.

Adults with Basic Skill Needs

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport achieve their full potential Percentage of adults with literacy needs Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of adults with numeracy needs Data Source National Survey for Adult Basic Skills in Wales, 2004 (Welsh Government)

Analysis Indicator This measure is the proportion of adults aged 16-64 estimated to have entry level or below literacy and numeracy skills. The National Survey of Adult Basic Skills in Wales was carried out during 2004, and in 2010 the Welsh Government commissioned an update to the survey. The surveys assessed overall literacy and numeracy skills of adults in Wales through English medium.

In 2004, the survey sampled over 2,500 adults between the age of 16 and 65 in Wales and is an overall estimate. In 2010, the achieved sample size for overall literacy and numeracy assessments was just over 2,000.

Data trend A considerable percentage of the population in Wales have low literacy and numeracy skills. In 2010, there was an improvement in literacy levels in Wales with 12% of adults assessed to have entry level literacy or below, a decrease from 25% in 2004. However, there has been little change in numeracy levels with over half the population (51%) of adults assessed to have entry level numeracy or below, similar to 53% in 2004. Literacy and numeracy levels were higher amongst the employed, those with higher levels of household income, those with higher qualifications, and amongst the older age groups.

The figures for Newport are only available for 2004 and are similar to the Wales levels for literacy and slightly higher for numeracy skills. A key skills review undertaken in May 2011 supports the findings of the Wales Basic Skills study. The scale of need estimated for basic skills needs by ward in Newport show that Bettws (44%) and Ringland (34%) have the highest literacy needs levels while Tredegar Park (85%) and Bettws (78%) have the highest numeracy needs.

Consultation undertaken across Communities First areas in Newport in 2010 appears to support the findings

59 of the Basic Skills survey. For example, in Stow Hill 22% of respondents stated they lacked basic skills and in Somerton 26% of respondents stated they lacked basic skills. In Pill, 43% of respondents stated they would like to improve their basic skills and in other areas many respondents expressed an interest in basic skills classes.

Data on the literacy and numeracy needs of adults appears to be very limited. The graph above shows that there is only one data point available for both the literacy and numeracy figures with no other trend data. This makes it difficult to analyse current trends as well as forecast performance for future years.

What is driving the trend? It is recognised that there are a number of factors that can influence numeracy and literacy needs as follows:  Poor school attendance  Varying learning needs that may not have been met early on in education  Differences between socio-economic groups and the impact the environment can have on people’s development  English not as a first language can impact on literacy/numeracy levels (approximately 16.9% people in Newport don’t have English as their first language)  Past prevalence of industry in Newport (where there was less of a focus on literacy/numeracy needs)  Cultural factors  Generational acceptance, peer pressure and low aspirations  Age of school leaver  Low self-esteem  Technology impacting on literacy levels

The Basic Skills survey for Wales has identified a number of factors that influence numeracy and literacy levels, including gender, age, employment, household income and qualification levels. A slightly higher proportion of males than females were assessed with entry level literacy or below, and males were assessed as having higher numeracy skills than females. Unemployed adults were more likely to have entry level literacy and numeracy skills or below than those in employment. Literacy levels for both employed and unemployed have improved since 2004, but numeracy skills show little change from 2004. Those with lower levels of household income were more likely to have lower literacy and numeracy skills, and those with higher qualification levels were more likely to have higher literacy and numeracy skills.

Current initiatives In 2010, a Newport Provider Partnership group was formed between the Council, Workers Educational Association (WEA), Coleg Gwent, Gwent Association of Voluntary Organisations (GAVO), Job Centre Plus and the University of Wales Newport amongst others. The aim of the partnership is to strategically plan provision across the city in order to avoid duplication, ensure progression routes, identify shortcomings, ensure a consistency of quality, and to obtain a clear view of just what learning opportunities are available throughout the city. One of the clear benefits of this initiative will be that we will, potentially, have better access to other provider’s statistics. In terms of basic skills provision this will mean that whilst we have an estimate of the scale of need, we lack the information on how many are actually accessing basic skills provision.

The Newport Basic Skills programme offers opportunities to the adult population to address literacy and numeracy needs through both formal and informal learning. The bulk of Basic Skills provision is delivered through the main community learning centre at Charles Street, however discrete courses are provided in other parts of the city with the support of partner organisations and through the Employer Pledge initiative. In addition to pure literacy and numeracy classes, community learning has made a great deal of effort to engage new learners through contextualised learning. Efforts are being made to ensure that provision is being developed in all parts of the city through active development and partnership working.

The Coleg Gwent Essential Skills Strategy 2011-2014 details the position and longer term vision for the development, expansion and delivery of its skills programme for all learners. The key strategic aims are:  To respond innovatively to the needs and interests of learners, from all parts of the communities we serve, to increase participation in skills development to improve skills levels of all learners  To ensure the care, guidance and support for our students is excellent  To promote excellent quality and standards through embedded quality improvement at all levels

Newport Adult Community Learning works with Coleg Gwent and four local authorities, and collectively established collaborative arrangements in Adult and Community Learning and are working together and sharing resources and knowledge on:  Learner Involvement Strategy  Involvement of 50+ age group in learning  Basic Skills Quality Standard Actions planned include a joint self-assessment between colleges and local authorities and adopting a shared approach to teaching literacy across all curriculum areas.

One Newport has recently commissioned Narrowing the Gap – Family Skills to support family members through the learning process.

Areas of development Following the pilot scheme outlined above (and perhaps following the half term training) we will review the available information and amend or develop new services to meet the anticipated need that emerges. Other Factors Adult skills and qualification levels including number of working age adults with no qualifications and number of adults with NQF level 2 or above (see Adult Qualifications).

Total visits to community learning.

Literacy and numeracy standards for early years, pre-school and school ages. Data Development Data on the literacy and numeracy needs of adults appears to be very limited. The graph above shows that there is only one data point available for both the literacy and numeracy figures with no other trend data. This makes it difficult to analyse current trends as well as forecast performance for future years.

There is some degree of uncertainty associated with the indicator’s definition for example how literacy and numeracy needs are defined for the purpose of this measure.

From September 2010, the Essential Skills Wales is the new suite of skills qualifications which has replaced the current key skills of Communication, Application of Number and ICT, and the Basic Skills of Adult Literacy, Adult Numeracy and Skills for Life ICT. These range from Entry 1 to Level 4 and cover Communication, Application of Number, and Information Communication Technology.

Additional Indicators

Population Indicator Baseline Data Source Wales average 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 (2012) Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) 5.5% 5.2% 4.7% 5.4% 3.1% Nomis 4.1% Claimants* *Figures refer to the month of September

Population Indicator Baseline Data Source 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10 2008/09 Proportion of primary school Newport 0.02% 0.01% 0.02% Newport City days lost to fixed term Wales n/a Council exclusion 0.01% 0.01% Proportion of secondary school Newport 0.10% 0.11% 0.08% Newport City days lost to fixed term Wales n/a Council exclusion 0.14% 0.14% Key Stage 3 Core Subject Newport 70.70% 68.10% 66.00% Newport City Indicator achievement Wales 68.00% 63.70% 61.30% Council Percentage of 15 year olds Newport 99.8% Newport City 100% 99.9% 99.7% achieving at least one Council Wales recognised qualification 99.2% 99.1% Key Stage 2 core subject Newport 86.1% Newport City 84% 83.2% 83% indicator attainment Council Wales 80% 78.2% 77.3% Key Stage 5 Level 3 Threshold Newport Newport City 95.20% 91.70% 95.80% Achievement (equivalent to 2+ Council Wales A Levels A*-E) 96.30% 94.90% 96.00%

Population Indicator Baseline Data Source Wales 2011/12 average The average number of units of housing related Newport City n/a No. No. per support, per 1,000 head of population, for each of the Council units 1,000 following types of housing related support service: Floating support 704 4.98 Direct access 38 0.27 Temporary accommodation 114 0.81 Permanent accommodation 180 1.27 Sheltered housing for older people 2,796 19.79 Community alarm services 2,144 15.17

Newport has a Prosperous and Thriving Economy (Economic Opportunity)

Newport is the gateway city to south east Wales and is a key Welsh economic location. Radical post- industrial economic restructure has taken place in recent decades which has seen a decline in traditional activities centred on the steel industry, with modern, high-end manufacturing and growth in the service sector taking its place at the centre of Newport’s economy. Support for establishing a prosperous and thriving economy for Newport has been a longstanding commitment for the One Newport LSB and its partners. Much has already been achieved to boost the local economy and help realise the city’s growth potential.

However, the city has not been immune to the effects of the recent global economic recession, and effective positioning is critical to achieving recovery in the new economic climate. There is currently great financial uncertainty and global factors will continue to impact upon the economies of Newport and elsewhere. In this context, the city’s partners are committed to doing everything they can to create the right conditions for new and existing businesses to grow, and continuing investment to be attracted to the city. The global economy is transforming and modern business needs locations fit for the future; environmentally sound, but committed to enterprise, opportunity, and growth.

Despite the impacts of the downturn, Newport remains a strategically important pillar of the Welsh economy. Wales faces a turbulent economic future, and Newport is no exception. However, the city also has great potential to support the capital in revitalising the national economic climate.

Newport plays a vital role as a provider of job opportunities to the south east of Wales, and the former Gwent authority areas in particular. The density of jobs in Newport, in terms of the positions available per head of working-age population, is second only to Cardiff. The total number of jobs has shown a slow rise following the recession, and Newport has been recognised by the Centre for Cities as one of the top ten UK cities for private sector employment growth in 2010/11. Independent research by the BBC with Experian has mentioned that Newport’s excellent recent improvements in educational attainment also contribute to this resilience as we look to kick-start responsible growth.

Wages available are comparable with the Welsh national average, although this is not represented in the earnings of residents. This demonstrates both that Newport still offers high-end, attractive jobs that will draw in the best from our large travel-to-work catchment area, but also that there remains a disconnection between local people and access to higher-earning jobs.

However the traditional mix of economic activity in Newport, with outputs and employment largely centred on the public sector and production, have left the city vulnerable to macro-economic factors in the past,. The private sector growth experienced in 2009/10 must be balanced against losses in the public and manufacturing sectors, whilst the curtailment of several flagship regeneration projects has impacted negatively on the economic picture as a whole.

Nevertheless, the ambitious development programme for the city continues despite the uncertain financial outlook. 2011 saw the new City Centre Campus of the University of Wales Newport open to universal, award-winning acclaim, alongside a number of peripheral schemes - a testament to Newport’s continuing potential to attract inward investment as an attractive business location. Tourism figures continue to show an increase in visitors to the city, as Newport benefits from the Ryder Cup legacy and improvements to the city centre and surrounding areas. The Admiral building currently under construction, will bring upwards of 1,200 jobs into a revitalised city centre and pave the way for the Friar’s Walk development in 2014/15.

We rely on our environment to provide the things we need but we must also be aware of the effect this can have on our wellbeing, and that of generations to come. Over consumption of resources depletes the environment’s ability to enable us to enjoy health, wellbeing and prosperity and creates additional problems such as the production of large volumes of waste material. Newport must therefore strive to ensure the needs of the environment, economy, and society are kept in balance. Failure to achieve this balance can result in consequences such as extreme weather events due to climate change and fluctuations in the worldwide energy market, which have a detrimental affect not only in Newport but across the globe.

Newport, with its industrial heritage, economic interests, and bustling location in south east Wales, faces many challenges in terms of reducing its environmental impact and achieving resource security. Newport is currently one of the worst-performing urban centres in the whole of the UK in terms of reducing carbon emissions, due to the concentration of energy-intensive industry in the city and the increasingly-problematic stretch of the M4 motorway that bisects it. Whilst domestic carbon emissions in Newport are amongst the lowest per head in Wales, Newport has one of the highest per capita emissions due to high volume of industrial and commercial emissions of CO2. Legislative requirements to address these issues continue to gather pace in accordance with central government policy and the statutory sustainability duty placed on the Welsh Government, requiring local services, businesses and communities, to seek innovative new ways of working that reduce environmental impacts and resource consumption. The new development in the city is evidence of Newport’s good progress with Mariners Quay housing development and the new city campus leading the way.

Whilst production of waste materials remains an inevitable consequence of our consumption of resources, in 2011/12 Newport generated less waste than many other authorities in Wales, recycling or composting 46% of the total, and receiving praise from the Campaign for Real Recycling as “the cheapest and most cost-effective” kerbside recycling operation in Europe The volume of waste produced in Newport remains a critical issue as the landfill site is approaching capacity, and EU regulations impose strict fines on the amount of waste disposed of in this way. It is therefore important to divert as much waste as possible from landfill or incineration. The main ways to achieve this are simply not to use it in the first place, such as by avoiding products with excess packaging, and ensuring that wherever possible materials are reused or recycled.

The key issues for Newport are therefore:  Driving forward the regeneration programme in order to establish Newport as an attractive place to live, work, invest and do business  Identification of emerging, resilient economic opportunities such as digital media, low-carbon goods and services, and freight logistics  Ensuring local people are equipped to access jobs and opportunities whilst continuing to support Newport’s role in the wider regional labour market  Ensuring Newport is recognised and celebrated as an economic driver for the South East Wales region, and a critical strategic location for the wider Welsh economy, that attracts an appropriate level of investment and support  Providing an excellent living standard and quality of life offer that makes Newport an attractive option to house high-growth, knowledge-based businesses  Striving to ensure the needs of the environment, economy, and society are kept in balance.

 Domestic CO2 emissions in Newport are amongst the lowest per head in Wales, but Newport has one of the highest volumes of emissions due to industrial and commercial activity.  Volume of waste produced in Newport remains a critical issue as the landfill site is approaching capacity and it is therefore important to reduce waste as much as possible.

Job Density

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Data Set (Population Indicator) Job density Office for National Statistics (ONS) (available at Nomis, official labour Data Source market statistics)

Job Density

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Newport 0.93 0.92 0.86 0.88 0.86 Wales 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.70

Analysis Indicator Job density Job density represents the ratio of jobs available to the city’s working age population including all employees, members of the armed forces, and trainees registered on government employment support schemes. Job density in Newport is significantly higher than elsewhere in Wales and has remained at a consistent level in recent years. This has reflected the traditional role of Newport as the economic hub of the former Gwent region, and the considerable regeneration investment and new employment opportunities Newport has attracted. Newport grew out of the steel trade, with strong links to towns in its hinterland across Gwent, and its relatively small size means that maintaining a high density of employment opportunities will help to ensure Newport remains a resilient economic entity.

This indicator should be considered alongside Employee Jobs.

Data trend The data shows a decrease since 2005 in the number of jobs available per person of working age which coincides with the start of the recession. However, since 2009 the level of job density has remained fairly static. The density of jobs available in Newport remains significantly higher than elsewhere in Wales (second only to Cardiff), and in 2011 remained above the UK average. Newport is reliant on the public sector to provide many of its jobs, and austerity measures aimed at decreasing the size of the UK public sector as a whole have impacted heavily on Newport as a result.

What is driving the trend? As is typical in Wales, Newport is reliant on the public sector to provide many of its jobs, and austerity measures aimed at decreasing the size of the UK public sector as a whole have impacted on Newport as a result. Similarly, global pressures on Newport’s long-established manufacturing sector have seen a number of jobs lost during the recent downturn, with the increased machination of manufacturing processes and the rise of global competitors in countries such as China and India also having an effect.

However despite these trends Newport continues to show its resilience. In 2013, Centre for Cities placed Newport in the top ten of its list of UK cities and large towns when rating each for growth in its private sector relative to its public sector. Likewise, the 2013 Santander UK Town and City Index noted that Newport performed well in terms of sectoral diversity.

Newport’s status as a regional employment centre is relevant to this indicator. Over 1.5 million people live within the travel-to-work distance therefore many jobs in Newport are filled by people who commute to the city to work. Newport has traditionally been an employment destination for many people in areas such as Risca, Cwmbran and south Monmouthshire. This access to the workforce and resources of the adjoining areas, coupled with Newport’s good transport access, will continue to underpin the density of jobs in Newport.

As this indicator relates to total jobs it is important to be consider the types of jobs available and the future skills required in order for Newport to remain competitive. Consideration of related statistics demonstrates that the relationship between people and jobs in Newport is complex: 2011 saw an increase in the number of unfilled vacancies per 10,000 people of working age, but the number of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimants per unfilled vacancy has also decreased. This suggests the complexity of issues at work in Newport’s labour market and that there is a disconnection between people, skills, and jobs. The reduction in the number of local people claiming JSA, for example, has not resulted in more vacancies being filled, as one might expect. The nature of available jobs is not captured by this statistic but it is important to consider in the future in terms of variability in projected earnings, hours, and flexibility in relation to childcare as three factors that might influence the ability of people to access an available vacancy.

Current initiatives To stimulate the jobs market there are as series of initiatives in place including:  Business start up grants  Attracting inward investment  Communities First schemes  Improving the skills base  Marketing and promotion of the city (during and post Ryder Cup, Newport Unlimited ‘Smart & Connected’ campaign aimed at attracting new companies)  Land disposal

Areas of development The role of Newport in the wider city region of South East Wales is not always recognised or used effectively in terms of attracting further investment into the city and its hinterland. The resilience of Newport as an employment hub is demonstrated by this statistic, and Newport is remains a critical engine for growth in the region. Developing a more regional approach to jobs, whereby business support and incentives are targeted in areas that show the greatest potential to create and sustain jobs rather than spread thinly across each authority area, could see Newport attract investment from Convergence areas in order to strengthen its role as a regional employer. The development of the city-region approach by the Welsh Government’s task and finish group will contribute to this but it is up to Newport to fight its corner and champion its role more effectively.

The need to fully understand and quantify where and what the industries in South East Wales are to highlight the importance of areas such as Newport more fully. Recent research is already highlighting Newport’s status as the technological centre of South Wales, with strengths in ICT and telecommunication boosted by a successful bid to the Super-Connected Cities fund in 2013. As a ‘digital city’ Newport is at the forefront of Wales and this strength in ICT can become the catalyst for prosperity if properly exploited.

Other Factors This indicator needs to be viewed in conjunction with measures of jobs by industry and patterns of earnings, along with data on education and skills levels. Data Development Breakdown of full and part time employment, business start-ups and survival rates, and identifying the proportion of temporary, permanent and fixed-term jobs available will enable greater understanding of this indicator.

Employee Jobs

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Data Set (Population Indicator) Total employee jobs Office for National Statistics (ONS), Annual Business Enquiry/Business Data Source Register Employers Survey, (available at StatsWales)

Total Employee Jobs

76000 74000 72000 70000 68000 66000 64000 62000 60000 2008 2009 2010 2011

Newport 73900 69900 70100 72500

Analysis Indicator The total employee jobs indicator is the count of available jobs in Newport occupied by civilian employees. The indicator does not include self-employed people, armed forces personnel, home workers and certain private service providers. The count of employee jobs is an important indicator of the prosperity of Newport. The number of jobs available in the city is a measure of the opportunities available for people entering the City’s labour market, as well as a measure of the health of Newport’s organisations and competitiveness as an economic location. It should be noted that the number of jobs does not reflect employment rates, as many people have more than one job and some categories of employment are not included. Data for 2011 is currently provisional.

This indicator should be considered alongside Job Density.

Data trend Newport remains a key centre for South-East Wales in terms of providing jobs. Although Newport has been successful in recent years in attracting new companies to invest in the city, bringing many new jobs to Wales, in keeping with the picture at both a Wales and UK level the total number of jobs has reduced during the economic downturn. Although, even before the downturn the total number of jobs was in decline. A slight upturn can be seen for 2010 but it is not clear if this represents temporary jobs linked to events such as the 2010 Ryder Cup or regeneration projects that took place during that year such as the city campus or the new railway station. A more significant increase can be seen for 2011 as a result of work undertaken to attract companies to the city and confidence returning to the business community with many in the NP postcode area planning expansion as we emerge from recession.

What is driving the trend? As with any economic indicator, the data is representative of wider economic trends. The impact of the recession on jobs has been a key issue in Newport, due to the city’s heavy reliance on the public sector to provide many of its jobs. In 2010, around one in three of Newport’s total jobs remained in the public sector, and national austerity measures aimed at scaling-back public services across the UK have impacted heavily on Newport as a result. Similarly, the economic downturn has curtailed several significant development projects in Newport with a knock-on effect on the construction industry in particular.

Alongside the recession, further structural changes in the global economy and in particular the rise of China and India as manufacturing super-powers has meant a decline in UK production, placing additional pressures on Newport’s well established high-end manufacturing industry. Locally, Newport faces further significant competition as an urban centre from its larger, more competitive neighbours in Cardiff and Bristol, which is also likely to affect the decisions of companies looking for locations to invest and create new jobs. The ability to generate and sustain jobs reflects on business growth and resilience, and competitive cities will find it easier to maintain a healthy labour market. Less competitive cities find it more difficult to attract inward investment and grow their own local businesses.

Nevertheless, along with the expected reduction in total jobs due to the recession, Newport’s status as a regional employment centre continues to affect the number of jobs in the city. Over 1.5 million people live within a travel-to-work distance of Newport making it a regional destination for those commuting to work and a net importer of labour, with the result that many jobs in the city are filled by non-resident commuters. This trend towards greater numbers of people commuting into Newport to work has not diminished even though the total number of jobs has declined26. Whilst this regional role is an attribute in terms of economic growth and the ability of Newport to attract new jobs, it also demonstrates the importance of ensuring sufficient jobs are available for the local workforce to complement this wider economic role, as the structural economic weakness of the post-industrial Gwent valleys has proved extremely difficult to challenge. Many of the working age population of the city have no qualifications and find it difficult to access higher paid jobs, making the city a less attractive place for good investment by businesses wishing to create jobs.

It is important to consider not only the number of jobs available in Newport, but also the critical mass of jobs Newport needs to increase employment and prosperity. This indicator therefore overlaps with the types of jobs available in the city and the skill-base required for filling those jobs. Related statistics demonstrate that the relationship between people and jobs in Newport is extremely complex: the number of unfilled vacancies per 10,000 people of working age has continued to rise throughout 2012, but the number of JSA claimants per unfilled vacancy has also decreased during that time. This suggests the complexity of issues at work in Newport’s labour market and that there is a disconnection between people, skills, and jobs. The reduction in the number of local people claiming JSA has not resulted in more vacancies being filled, as one might expect, The reasons for this are unclear, but it may be that changes to the welfare system and economic downturn have seen people look farther afield for work outside the city.

Jobs exist to provide the means for people to earn money and increase their prosperity. To be sustainable, a job therefore needs to ensure this opportunity. This indicator needs careful consideration alongside other labour market data covering earnings, business demography, commuting patterns and hours of work at the local level, alongside consideration of global economic factors.

Current initiatives Business support – a business loan is available for new start up businesses and the City Council can offer assistance in developing an online presence for businesses (e.g. websites). A number of local businesses

26 Annual Local Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey (2011), Office for National Statistics

69 have benefited from this scheme including Abriox and e-inclusion recycling.

Regeneration – initiatives include major refurbishments to the Market and Market Arcade to make the city centre more attractive to businesses, regeneration work being undertaken in the Pillgwenlly area to join it to the city core, the Friar's Walk development, and improvements to transport links including a ‘city centre interchange’ which will make it easier to get into and out of the city centre and also to swap methods of transport, and High Street now open to public transport again. The capital building, Admiral’s new flagship presence in the city centre, will bring with it upwards of 1,000 jobs. For further details see Regeneration.

Skills and worklessness – initiatives include community based work clubs, pre-employment training courses, expansion of the Want to Work services and various jobs fairs. A network of employers has been created through the Skills Charter and supported a number of people into employment. Delivery of the Work Programme initiative in partnership with Working Links has engaged and supported people into employment. Sport that Works programme has been implemented, and various programmes in place targeted at young people not in employment, education or training. For further details see Economic Inactivity.

Areas of development Newport needs to identify which clear sectors it can support for jobs growth. The economic development strategy identifies several emerging economic areas which Newport is well placed to exploit, including digital technology, low-carbon and environmental goods and services, and freight logistics. Developing Newport’s business portfolio in these areas will complement the existing business mix and drive prosperity in the city. However it is also important that Newport starts to think regionally in terms of its job needs and the way in which the economy of the wider city-region comprised by the ten South East Wales local authorities operates. As the second employment centre of the region it is vital that Newport is recognised as a key strategic location for the growth of the regional economy. Other Factors Earnings and hours – Quality of jobs

Skills and training – see Economic Inactivity Data Development None identified.

Earnings

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Data Set (Population Indicator) Earnings by workplace and by residence (gross weekly pay full time) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Office for National Statistics Data Source (Nomis)

Earnings by Workplace - Gross weekly pay (£) all FT workers

480

460

440

420

400

380 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Newport 449.5 451.9 473.4 469.5 450.5 Wales 420.1 440.4 450.8 451.3 452.6

Earnings by Residence - Gross weekly pay (£) all FT workers

460 450 440 430 420 410 400 390 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Newport 413.8 443.7 455.0 433.5 441.7 Wales 424.8 444.6 456.2 455.1 455

Analysis Indicator These figures show the median earnings for those who work in the city alongside median earnings for those resident in the city. Figures for 2012 are subject to revision.

Data trend Newport has until recently demonstrated a higher than average level of earnings by workplace. This illustrates that there are many good quality jobs remaining in the city, particularly in technical, manufacturing, finance and Information Technology (IT) roles. However, this level dropped in 2012 although this figure is subject to revision. In comparison, Newport demonstrates a much lower than average level of earnings by residence, with the average full time earnings over 5% lower in comparison to the Wales average

71 and over 10% lower than the average wages of Cardiff and Swansea. This trend appears to be reversing, however, in comparison to the wider Welsh situation.

Although in recent years, there has been a steady increase in earnings by both workplace and residence, the most recent data on both measures has fluctuated and overall shows a decrease in earnings.

What is driving the trend? Newport is traditionally an employment hub for the south east of Wales, and enjoys excellent transport connections which make it an enviable location for business. As a result Newport has a potential work catchment population of over 1.5 million people in its travel to work area. The discrepancy between earnings by workplace, and earnings by residence, would suggest that many of the higher paid roles in the city are taken by people who do not also reside in the area. Whilst it is important that Newport is able to draw in a high quality workforce to support sustainable inward business investment, it is also vital that local people can access these higher paid roles, and are able to develop the skills and qualifications that enable them to obtain the best job opportunities. It is important to note that whilst Newport attracts in significant amounts of commuters to work in the city, it also exports large numbers, and the relatively high employment rate of Newport residents at the end of 2012 in comparison to other areas in South-East Wales suggests that Newport residents have been competitive in terms of accessing work in an austere jobs market.

For both indicators, although wages for men are higher than for women, men’s average wages are lower in comparison to the Wales average indicating that gender continues to play a role in earning trends. Furthermore, almost a third of Newport’s jobs are available on a part time basis. Limited working hours can contribute to reduced earnings and relative poverty for those who occupy such roles, and women in particular are far more likely than men to occupy part time jobs.

In common with other areas in Wales, a significant proportion of Newport’s population is employed in the public sector (consistently over 25%) which has seen a pay freeze since 2009. This will continue to place a downward pressure upon wages. However, inflation rates have decreased since the height of recession, easing pressures on households and the impact on real wages.

Current initiatives Newport is currently seeking to attract investment from companies that will add to the high-value services and industries available in the city and contribute to the strengthening and diversification of key sectors. Knowledge-based industries including financial services, high-specification manufacture and digital technology are already established in the city. Regeneration of the city centre, and especially the opening of the University Campus, is already generating significant business activity to build on – the Alacrity Foundation, Creative Hub, Food Academy and the relocation of Admiral to a bespoke city centre location on Cambrian Road are critical projects to achieving these aims. Each also presents an opportunity to strengthen the skills base on offer in Newport, particularly by retaining graduates in the area, which will benefit the city in terms of attracting future investment in high-value jobs.

Areas of development Growth in the knowledge economy, attracting more high-end business to Newport.

Building on the Digital City agenda and working in partnership with key stakeholders including University of Wales Newport and establishing better links to major private companies already located in Newport.

Improving the skills base of the local population so they can access jobs in more lucrative sectors. Retaining graduates and skills in the local area. Improving the city centre offer so that money earned in Newport is also money spent in the local area.

Other Factors These indicators need to be considered as part of a package with more general information on employment. Data Development  Economic migrant pay / data  Profile of earnings by job and sector  Commuting – in and out flows  Hours of working  Earnings by industry

Active Enterprises

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Data Set (Population Indicator) Number of active businesses Data Source Office for National Statistics (ONS), Business Demography (StatsWales)

Active Enterprises

3860 3840 3820 3800 3780 3760 3740 3720 3700 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Newport 3845 3805 3830 3840 3760

Analysis Indicator This measure is the number of active enterprises in Newport. These are defined as businesses that had either turnover or employment at any time during the reference period. Births and deaths are then identified by comparing active populations for different years.

Data trend The number of active enterprises has remained relatively steady over recent years until a marked decrease in 2011 as Newport started to demonstrate the fall-out of the recession upon business survival rates. Newport’s economy, based largely on public sector investment and specialised manufacturing, has left the city vulnerable to the effects of the recession and its impacts on global markets. The marked decrease in the number of active enterprises in Newport is representative of a range of economic effects relating to the impact of the financial downturn on companies.

What is driving the trend? Despite Newport’s relatively high levels of employment and a diverse and dense job market in comparison to the rest of Wales, the city does less well in terms of business creation. Newport is historically reliant on several big employers, many of which are in the public sector. This reliance may contribute to the relative lack of entrepreneurship in the city. Ill-informed negative stereotyping of Newport may further contribute to it failing to attract people into the area who wish to start a business of their own, as will the structural weaknesses in the economy and skills base inherent in parts of Newport and the wider hinterland area.

When compared to other local authority areas, Newport performs well in terms of the number of active enterprises per 10,000 head of population, falling only slightly behind the capital and sustaining higher numbers than the neighbouring Valleys authorities.

Newport’s reliance on public sector impetus to drive its economy has a knock-on effect on the local economy. Support for businesses has been reduced in the wider sense of fewer contracts being procured from local Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), many of whom rely on the public sector for business. The climate in terms of direct aid is less severe, with the need to regenerate the city centre seeing generous grants being awarded to companies willing to invest in the centre of Newport; however, the current climate of austerity contributes to a risk aversion in the economy in terms of starting a business.

It should also be noted that these statistics are drawn from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Inter- Departmental Business Register, which does not account for very small businesses that operate below the VAT threshold. When these additional businesses, which are often self-employed or part-time in nature, are taken into account the number of active enterprises rises to 7,725 as of the end of 2010. The majority of these extra businesses are very small, some employing only one person, and between 2009 and 2010 the number of these enterprises fell by 1,165 (14%). However, provisional analysis from 2010 has shown the number to have risen, demonstrating the ability of these small, independent enterprises to bounce back following the impact of the recession.

Many of the business deaths in the city over recent years can be accounted for by the decline in Newport’s construction industry - in 2011 over 14% of failing businesses were in construction. This sector remains one of the largest in terms of active enterprises (13%) but is particularly reliant on significant financial investment to generate work, and many ambitious projects in Newport have been postponed or cancelled due to the recession. Likewise, retail businesses have seen a notable decline due to a number of reasons including changes in shopping behaviours, consumer preference for neighbouring centres, and compulsory purchase orders being levied to pave the way for the development of a new city centre shopping facility.

Other sectors have weathered the financial downturn more successfully, and Newport’s professional scientific and technical business base has grown over recent years to almost 14%, and is now the largest sector of active enterprises. This demonstrates the future for Newport as a modern city generating significant employment through the knowledge economy. In ICT in particular, Newport has been identified as the leading authority in Wales in terms of high-end development and employment.

Current initiatives In Newport, as in any city, it is important to maintain a diverse range of businesses to ensure there is not too great a reliance upon any particular industry or large employers. Key partner organisations have encouraged all types and size of businesses to set up in the city, from major retailers linked to the Friar’s Walk development to small independent enterprises. A number of initiatives aimed at driving up footfall in the city centre will also likely have a knock-on effect in assisting business viability, including the Newport Food Festival and Big Splash events. The relocation of Admiral to the city centre sends a clear message that Newport is open for business and will hopefully encourage other major employers to take up office space in the vicinity.

Newport retains a healthy mix of small to large enterprises, however turnover from business is concentrated in larger companies. It is debateable how much of this is retained in the local area and again demonstrates the need to support and grow independent local enterprises. However, these larger companies also account for over half the jobs in Newport, which demonstrates their continuing importance to the city economy. It is vital that Newport achieves the right balance in its business demography to sustain any future economic recovery.

Areas of development To continue to ensure businesses remain active in Newport, there needs to be continued investment along with on-going support and advice and a clear focus on how the city can attract investment and benefit from

75 its superb business location and connectivity in the south east Wales region. Newport should be quick to seize on emerging economic growth areas in addition to capitalising on its significant technical and manufacturing industry capacity. Newport must draw upon its history of reinvention and innovation to embrace emerging business sectors such as digital technology and green energy. Other Factors This indicator needs to be considered alongside a breakdown of enterprises and employment by industry type. Full business structure data should be considered, which reflect the total number of active enterprises inclusive of those below the VAT threshold. Data Development Emerging economic growth area businesses, including digital technology, renewable energy, high-end manufacturing, etc.

Regeneration – Additional Funding

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Additional funding geared into Newport due to successful external Data Set (Population Indicator) bidding Data Source Newport City Council (RRS/L/006)

Regeneration - Additional Funding

£3,000,000

£2,500,000

£2,000,000

£1,500,000

£1,000,000

£500,000

£0 2012/13

Newport £2,483,538

Indicator This indicator is additional funding geared into Newport due to successful external bidding. This indicator replaces the previous indicator for ‘Regeneration Investment’ and therefore data is currently only available for 2012/13.

Digital Inclusion

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Percentage of adults 18+ digitally included Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage with broadband coverage Percentage with a minimum 2 mbit speed Data Source Welsh Government Digital Inclusion Analysis Package (Experian, 2011)

Digital Inclusion

69%

68%

67%

66%

65%

64% 2011

Newport 68.4% Wales 66%

Analysis Indicator This measure is the estimated level of digital inclusion at a Newport and Wales level, sourced from Experian. It shows the percentage of adults aged 18+ who are digitally included. This is the latest information available.

Digital inclusion offers many potential benefits to citizens across a wide range of outcomes, from health to accessing education and employment. Access to the internet is now an important predictor of wellbeing and prosperity. The Welsh Government has released a strategy for digital inclusion for Wales, and it is important that residents in Newport are not excluded from the opportunities that access to the internet can bring.

In general, Newport enjoys fairly comprehensive broadband coverage from its nine exchanges. The largest exchange, the Newport Savoy, serves well over 20,000 premises alone. Speeds are fairly reliable, though a criticism that applies to much of the traditional UK broadband infrastructure is that speed deteriorates the further the wiring runs from the exchange and this remains an issue. The exchanges are all local-loop unbundled, allowing competition between broadband providers, which allows residents to choose from several options to find the best service for their needs. The largest broadband providers in Newport are BT and Virgin Media. Ofcom estimate an average speed of 7.5 megabytes per second (mbps) across the city as a whole.

Data trend Experian data used as part of the evidence package to the Welsh Government mapping digital inclusion is useful in detailing the engagement of Newport residents with the internet. With 68% of adults aged 18+ accessing the internet, Newport is measured as having the seventh highest rate of digital inclusion in Wales. Encouragingly, 29% of Low-Level Super Output Areas (LLSOAs) in Newport are in the top quintile for digital inclusion in Wales, the highest number outside Cardiff, Monmouthshire and the Vale.

What is driving the trend? Nevertheless, Newport also has several barriers to achieving full digital inclusion. Several ‘not-spots’ remain which have poor broadband access, particularly in the coastal villages of Marshfield, Castleton, and Goldcliff. Ofcom suggest that some 15% of people in Newport enjoy speeds of less than 2mbps, comparing poorly to the Newport average. These areas are relatively remote from the main city and do not have the same concentration of properties seen in the rest of the city. However, the areas showing the lowest overall levels of digital inclusion are Bettws and Ringland, which are characterised by relatively lower scores on the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD).

We can therefore see that geographical, age and socio-economic factors inevitably are at play, although the ways in which they interact are complex. It is suggested that relative income levels are not necessarily a predictor of digital inclusion in Newport. For example, the Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) Pillgwenlly 3, the most relatively deprived area of Newport and the twentieth most deprived in Wales, has a digital inclusion rate of over 80% and well above the city average. Beechwood 5 is 1,494 places higher than Pillgwenlly 3 on the WIMD but has a digital inclusion rate over 20% lower.

The Experian data suggest that a relatively younger age profile and/or health and disability status is often a predictor of engagement with digital technology at local levels. There is also no accounting for factors relating simply to individual consumer choice not to engage.

Finally, whilst information technology is in many ways an enabler, reducing the need for travel and allowing much greater energy efficiency, it is of itself an energy-intensive tool, and volatility in energy prices will likely affect people’s ability and preferences in relation to internet use.

Current initiatives Newport’s broadband infrastructure was upgraded in 2012 through BT Openreach’s Race to Infinity Campaign, which delivered next-generation broadband speeds of up to 80mbps from the Newport Chartist, Maesglas, and Castleton exchanges.

More significantly, in 2013 Newport City Council made a successful bid to the Department for Culture, Media and Sport to become one of only twelve centres to feature in the second tranche of ‘Super-Connected Cities’; the funding attached to this bid will enable businesses and homes to access speeds of over 80 mbps along with upgraded WiFi. A voucher scheme is in development to allow local businesses to make the most of this exciting opportunity.

The digital inclusion agenda also intersects with the drive to establish Newport as the ‘smart and connected’ centre of the Welsh digital economy. Whilst business broadband needs are based on different demands to local residents, they share the same exchanges, and actions taken aimed at improving the broadband infrastructure for businesses will also benefit residential premises across the city. E-inclusion scheme enables people experiencing economical, financial, physical, social and cultural barriers to access technology more readily. IT equipment and training are provided at a nominal cost.

Areas of development Those partners involved in driving Newport forward as a digital city should ensure this interest applies to residents as well as businesses, and health, environmental, and education services can also significantly contribute through championing the applications of ‘smarter’ living in their respective areas. The move towards mobile internet use, and the explosion in smart-phone coverage, means that those involved in the digital agenda should also carefully consider Wi-Fi coverage and keep abreast of new technological advancements and trends.

Other Factors Ofcom data – average sync speeds, broadband take-up, broadband access and percentage not receiving 2mbps.

SamKnows – broadband data for Newport. Data Development  Costs of upgrading to next-generation broadband  Business requirements and use  Wi-Fi coverage

Commuting Patterns

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Number of people commuting into Newport Data Set (Population Indicator) Number of people commuting out of Newport Data Source Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics (ONS)(StatsWales)

Number of people commuting into Newport

32,000 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Newport 29,900 31,500 27,500 28,500 29,600

Number of people commuting out of Newport

21,000

20,000

19,000

18,000

17,000

16,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Newport 20,000 18,800 18,100 20,700 19,700

Analysis Indicator These measures show the commuting patterns for Newport. They examine commuting patterns for those who are either employees or self-employed. The analysis is based solely on a person’s main job.

Data trend These figures indicate that there is a significant net inward daily commute to Newport, reflecting the city’s historic position as the ‘economic hub’ for south east Wales. The number of people commuting into the city continues to increase, whilst the number of people commuting out of the city has decreased since 2010.

What is driving the trend? Even accounting for the impact of the recession, Newport boasts the highest density of jobs in Wales outside the capital. Many of these jobs are in managerial and other professional roles, and Newport jobs are more likely to be full time than is usual in the rest of Wales, which contributes to the average workplace earnings in Newport being above or comparable to the Wales average. This means that Newport represents an attractive jobs market for people willing to travel to the city to access employment.

Conversely, the number of jobs available in elementary occupations is also higher than the Wales average. When combined with the amount of people with no qualifications in the city, Newport can also be seen as an attractive destination for travel to work for those wishing to access jobs closer to the entry level. Unemployment is high across the former Gwent region with the exception of Monmouthshire, and good transport links in Newport may further incentivise people to travel into the city for work.

Current initiatives The Single Integrated Plan and the Council’s Economic Development Strategy contain key actions to explore the potential for drawing more commuters into the city. However, Newport has suffered from a lack of investment in infrastructure – many of the commuting corridors are at peak capacity, with a knock on effect that stifles economic recovery. For example, the M4 bottleneck at the Brynglas Tunnels has been identified as a national priority whilst the lack of an extension to the Ebbw Vale rail line connecting the valleys directly to Newport fails to address the main commuting flows from the Gwent valleys to the coast. With significant investment planned to address the situation with the M4 – the UK Treasury has outlined how additional borrowing powers for the Welsh Government could soon generate the funding required to create a much- needed relief road – Newport’s already attractive location will likely see a renewed interest from investors and employers. The location of the city and the proximity of good public transport links was critical to Admiral’s decision to relocate to the city centre and this demonstrates that equal investment to Newport’s public transport infrastructure will inevitably generate significant returns in terms of jobs.

Newport has recently seen many improvements to its transport network, with the new railway station, highway maintenance, and extension of the cycle network all making it easier to travel to, from, and within Newport. Actions should be directed towards encouraging sustainable transport use where possible due to Newport’s poor air quality. The new bus station envisaged as part of the Friar’s Walk development, and successful lobbying of the Welsh Government to provide the long-overdue rail link to Ebbw Vale, will help in this regard. Where it is necessary to commute using the car, consideration should be given to the feasibility of any proposed relief road for the M4 to allow commuters better access to the city.

Areas of development As digital technology improves, more and more people work from home or agile locations, and the full benefits of this trend should be explored and maximised in terms of the prosperity of Newport. Agile working can offer greater flexibility and efficiency for businesses, and reduce transport emissions, and improve connectivity by decreasing vehicle activity on Newport’s already congested roads. Finally, it is important that Newport’s offer as a destination improves as commuters represent an opportunity to see money invested in the local economy. Other Factors Any issues relating to commuting patterns need to be considered not only as part of the city’s economic development, but also in terms of both the city’s strategic transport links and its commitment to reducing carbon emissions. Data Development  Method of travel  Agile working trends  Economic spend of travellers commuting into Newport

Traffic Volumes

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Traffic volumes on all major roads (billion vehicle km) Data Set (Population Indicator) Traffic volumes on all roads (billion vehicle km) Data Source Department for Transport, Welsh Government (Welsh Government)

Traffic Volumes (Newport only)

1.5

billion kilometres vehicle 0.5

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

All major roads 1.23 1.25 1.22 1.20 1.24 All roads 1.81 1.82 1.78 1.75 1.79

Indicator This indicator is the volume of traffic per billion vehicle kilometres, and excludes pedal cycles. The information for 2011 was released in December 2012.

Road Conditions

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Condition of non-principal / classified roads (% defects) Data Set (Population Indicator) Principal (A) roads in poor condition Newport City Council Data Source Department for Transport, Welsh Government

Principal (A) roads in poor condition

7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

Newport 1% 1% 2% 3.7% Wales 4% 4% 5% 6.6%

Condition of non-principal / classified roads

9.1% 9.0% 8.9% 8.8% 8.7% 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 2010/11 2011/12

Newport 8.5% 9.0%

Indicator The percentage of principal (A) roads, non-principal (B) roads and non-principal (C) roads that are in overall poor condition.

The dataset ‘Condition of non-principal/classified roads’ changed from 2010/11 so previous year data is no longer comparable.

Tourism

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Number of people visiting Newport Data Set (Population Indicator) Estimated value of tourism Newport City Council Data Source Scarborough Tourism Economic Activity Modes (STEAM)

Number of people visiting Newport

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Newport 2,044,000 2,029,000 2,082,000 2,548,000 2,320,720

Estimated value of tourism to Newport 250

200

150 £m 100

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Newport 171 181 181 222 202

Analysis Indicator The principal aim of tourism is to encourage tourists to Newport for the economic, environmental and social wellbeing of local people. A tourist is defined as ‘a visitor travelling to places outside their own environment’27.

27 Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS)

The number of tourists gives a count of all visitors annually, regardless of their length of stay. This includes all those who visit for a day only or stay overnight, and gives us a benchmark or reference point. This overall figure is collated through local figures being fed back via tourist information centres, hotel occupancy, event figures, attraction attendance, etc. It also gives an indication of movement and influence.

The estimated ‘value’ of tourism is actually the direct revenue and spend from visitors but includes the indirect spend associated with that (a multiplier affect). Spend by tourists and visitors is an important economic indicator as it not only supports those directly employed in the sector, but also other service sectors in the local economy. This is collected on a bottom up basis from the suppliers in the locality. Multipliers, in respect of tourist economic impacts generated indirectly, are calculated using multipliers of destination types. This measure is a best estimate of the real value, through a combination of modelling and real local data.

Data trend After a moderate decline between 2006 and 2008, the number of tourists to Newport increased significantly during 2010 as a result of the Ryder Cup.

The visitor figures for 2011 of 2.3 million were less than in 2010. This was the year of the Ryder cup when figures reached a peek of just over 2.5 million. However the 2011 figures show an increase of over 11 % on the 2009 figures .This is an upward trend at a time of economic downturn.

What is driving the trend? The main driver behind the increase in 2010 was The Ryder Cup 2010. Research shows that a significant feature for Newport was not necessarily the event itself, but the additional spend generated in the build up to the event. The effects of the Ryder Cup masked what would otherwise probably have been a decline in visitors and spend.

However, the increase in 2011 compared to 2009 reflects to a certain extent a legacy from the Ryder Cup, but also an increase in sporting and cultural events which has attracted a greater number of visitors to the city.

Current initiatives Whilst in 2010, much effort was concentrated on event delivery for the Ryder Cup, there has also been activity to build on the legacy of this event including the promotion of golfing breaks and encouragement of the private sector to keep in touch with their new customers. We have built on the legacy of Local Ambassadors developed during the Ryder Cup for supporting events such as the Newport Food Festival.

However, more recently the focus has been on economic regeneration and raising the profile of the city. Newport City Council and its partners have been supporting a number of events aimed at attracting people to the city, as well as working together on destination marketing. The development of a Destination Action Plan as part of the Single Integrated Plan will help to coordinate stakeholder actions and provide more opportunities to access funding, with the aim of increasing the number of visitors to the city.

Business tourism accounts for a large proportion of the measure as Newport is frequently used as a conference and meeting venue. Newport also accommodates the ‘overspill’ in hotel and venue bookings from major events that take place in Cardiff and other neighbouring towns and cities.

The recent events programme for the city and positive marketing of key attractions and local areas has had a positive impact on visitors. Newport has much to offer visitors with significant heritage sites, natural areas and landscape.

Areas of development To progress a ‘destination management and action plan’ as identified in the Single Integrated Plan.

To develop more marketing activity for our higher yield business tourism and maximise developments in the sporting sector for which South Wales and Newport is raising its profile.

Continued support for appropriate product development as per the Destination Action Plan. Other Factors Tourism and its impact on the local economy should be considered alongside other key areas detailed in the Single Integrated Plan for Newport. Data Development Although the statistical measure used went some way towards providing an accurate indicator, data development needs to be undertaken around benchmarking and further market intelligence.

Carbon Emissions

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy

Data Set (Population Indicator) CO2 emissions per capita Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC) Local Authority Carbon Data Source Dioxide Figures (LSB Insight)

Newport CO2 Emissions Per Capita

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Newport 14.2 13.2 10.7 11.8 10.2 Wales 11.2 10.8 9.4 10.7 9.5

Total CO2 Emissions

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Newport 1928.9 1805.6 1469.3 1621.8 1490

Analysis Indicator Emissions per capita (per head) is measured in tonnes carbon dioxide per resident. Per head emissions is calculated by firstly dividing the total number of carbon dioxide emissions in kilotonnes by the population of the local authority. This figure is then multiplied by 1000 to generate the figure in tonnes. The population figures are taken from the Mid Year Estimates.

Total carbon dioxide emissions is the total of industry and commercial carbon dioxide emissions, domestic carbon dioxide emissions and road transport carbon dioxide emissions.

Carbon emissions are now globally recognised to be a major driver of climate change. Reducing the carbon produced from human activity is vital in order to avoid dangerous impacts on our climate. As a coastal

88 nation, Wales is already vulnerable to extreme weather events which generate enormous economic and social challenges. By reducing our carbon footprint we bring our economy and society back into line with the ability of the environment to sustain our way of life.

Data trend The data trend now shows that Newport has seen a reduction in carbon emissions over the five year period, despite a spike in 2010 that was largely linked to an increase in emissions from large industrial installations. Wales’ national per capita carbon footprint has shown a slight reduction in this time, and Newport’s emissions are now very close to the Wales average. The data available describes the proportion of emissions attributable to the industrial/commercial, domestic, and transport sectors across Newport, illustrating where the main body of emissions are generated and demonstrating where more effort should be focused. Our main body of emissions continues to be from the industrial and commercial sector, and the slow emergence of the UK from recession will inevitably be accompanied by an increase in industrial and commercial activity. This activity accounts for 55% of the City’s carbon footprint. Domestic and road transport emissions have declined as a percentage of the total emissions, accounting 18% and 26% respectively. However, the total volume of CO2 produced by these sectors has also increased.

What is driving the trend? It is likely that much of the changes seen in Newport’s improved carbon footprint over the five year period occurred as a result of the recession and the associated downturn in industrial and commercial activity and road transport use. Domestic households also likely made efforts to reduce bills during the downturn. However the slow recovery is once again seeing emissions rise as economic activity increases once more. This is clearly demonstrated in the significant increase reported in Newport due to large industrial installations.

The carbon footprint for Wales has increased by a similar amount to that of Newport over the last data year available. This suggests again that wider macro-economic forces are driving the data trend rather than efforts to reduce emissions. In terms of domestic emissions, Newport was until recently slightly ahead of the game but the cold winters of recent years will likely be reflected in the rise in domestic emissions. With much still left to do, the Council’s comprehensive programme of home energy efficiency measures in partnership with the Welsh Government is preparing to roll out phase III of the Arbed programme which will continue to target the most inefficient homes.

Road transport is a more challenging proposition, due to the location of Newport on the M4 corridor and the lack of real alternatives to the private motor vehicle for transit. The developing Metro concept, an ambitious plan to deliver a sustainable, efficient mass transit system linking the whole of South-East Wales, recognises that Newport is under-supplied particularly in terms of its rail network, and the City should embrace the Metro concept and the package of social, environmental, and economic benefits it will bring .

The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) describes Newport as the most deprived local authority area in Wales under the Physical Environment domain. This analysis includes several sources of environmental data, one of which is air quality in the area. Newport has eight of the top ten Low-level Super Output areas for environmental deprivation, with a total of 46% below the national average. The indicators used include flood risk and air quality, both of which contextualise the need to reduce carbon. Newport’s flood plain covers nearly the entire city and is at extreme risk in the event of violent weather and sea level rises, whilst air quality from a range of emissions in Newport is poor, again constituting a health risk to residents. Whilst many of these issues are beyond the ability of Newport to directly address alone, it can show, through emissions reduction and the adopting of strategic adaption measures to prepare for the unavoidable impacts of future climate change, that it at least is taking the issue seriously and thereby encourage others to follow.

Current initiatives Newport’s successful affordable warmth project, one of the leading projects funded under the Welsh Government’s Arbed programme and delivered in partnership with the South East Wales Energy Agency has seen an impressive package of home insulation treatments targeted at the least efficient and fuel-poor properties in the city, and includes an option for solar installation providing renewable electricity for private home owners. Likewise, the expansion of the cycle network in Newport, including the new Caerleon Link and safe routes to schools, will support low-carbon, sustainable transport. In the industrial sector, public sector bodies are required to improve the efficiency of their estate, and the private sector has driven many new green energy projects, including the use of biomass at Uskmouth Power Station, the Solutia Wind Turbines, and new Solar PV arrays on the outskirts of the city. The intention of Next Generation Data, a particularly energy-intensive operation based at the former LG site, to operate 100% on renewable energy is an industry- leading initiative that demonstrates how economic renaissance and environmental sustainability can go hand in hand. The development of a city-region approach and the associated Metro concept in South East Wales may hold the key to a significant reduction in emissions across the whole of the ten authorities involved.

Areas of development There is a need to support the industrial sector in Newport to make use of its proven innovation and adaptability to separate their activity from carbon-intensive methods and operate in more sustainable ways. The business case, in terms of competitiveness, reputation, and resilience, is undeniable. The links between sustainable travel and health and social benefits are equally clear, and should be more strongly recognised in local priorities.

Finally, even if we achieve significant progress in cutting carbon, some level of preparedness for unavoidable impacts of climate change is necessary, and the LSB partners will investigate ways in which we can measure performance against this aim. Other Factors DECC (2011) Local Authority Carbon Dioxide Figures: Local Authority Subset (2005-2009) – this indicator gives a breakdown of CO2 emissions within the scope of influence of local authorities, by sector. As the lead partner in carbon reduction, it is vital that the Council shows leadership. The majority of Newport’s emissions (82%) fall within Newport City Council’s (NCC) sphere of influence.

DECC (2011) Local Authority Carbon Dioxide Figures: Industrial and Commercial, Domestic, and Road Transport Emissions – the data describes emissions by sector.

NCC Reduction in Energy Use is a performance indicator used to calculate the local authority’s performance relating to the Carbon Reduction Commitment and the total emissions from the Council’s built estate.

Environment Agency (2011) CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme Performance League Table - NCC currently rank 753 out of the 2106 registered bodies and are therefore comfortably in the top half of the table (largely due to action taken to install automatic meter reading across the estate) for reducing carbon emissions, and are ahead of many similar sized local authorities.

DECC (2011) Total Sub-National Final Energy Consumption - energy use and carbon reduction are very much interlinked and both illustrate our progress towards a sustainable future.

WG (2011) Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation – describes each local authority’s relative deprivation including a domain on physical environment based in part on flood risk. Data Development  Carbon emissions by business population

 Adapting to climate change  Emissions statistics by One Newport LSB partner organisations  Renewable energy data

Air Quality

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Data Set (Population Indicator) Number of air quality management areas Number of People Living in Air Quality Management Areas in Wales, 2010 Data Source (r) and 2011, Welsh Government (StatsWales)

Number of People Living in Air Quality Management Areas

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012

Newport 135 135 404

Analysis Indicator This indicator has been changed to match the national air pollution indicator used by the Welsh Government. Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) are declared in locations where concentrations of pollutants in the air are close to or exceed statutory limits and are potentially harmful to health.

Data trend The number of people in Newport who reside in an AQMA has remained stable until a recent increase in 2012. As the indicator is linked to properties, it is likely that whilst the number of Newport properties within AQMAs remains constant, the number of people is also likely to do so.

What is driving the trend? The recent increase can be attributed to two new Air Quality Management Orders, covering part of Chepstow Road and a second stretch of Malpas Road, declared in October 2011, meaning that Newport will now have nine such areas in total.

The main source of air pollution in Newport is road traffic, particularly from the M4 motorway, which bisects the city from east to west cutting through several residential areas including St Julians, Brynglas, Crindau, Glasllwch, and High Cross. Concentrations of traffic in the centre of Caerleon and at Royal Oak Hill are also significant. As well as being a major business location on the M4 corridor, the convenience of the motorway for commuting within the city, given the preference for use of the private car for transport, will inevitably cause air quality to decline.

The construction of buildings in AQMAs is also relevant, as densely-concentrated buildings prevent pollutants

92 from dispersing. A quarter of all AQMAs in Wales are located in Newport, though in most of these areas the density of population is smaller than in comparable zones. Therefore, no direct comparison to a Wales average is possible for this indicator, and each AQMA across Wales is unique.

The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) describes Newport as the most deprived local authority area in Wales under the physical environment domain. This analysis includes several sources of environmental data, one of which is air quality in the area. Newport has eight of the top ten low-level super output areas, with a total of 46% below the national average. Though this measurement includes other factors, such as flood risk and proximity to waste and industrial sites, the WIMD summarises that air quality across Newport is poor and adds further weight to the need to address air quality in the city.

Current initiatives It is hoped that the construction of more sustainable transport networks, such as the Caerleon Cycle Link in particular, will reduce the numbers of car journeys in the city and place less burden on the environment, whilst improving the health prospects of residents.

More accurate data on personal and freight travel in the city would be useful in addressing these concerns.

Areas of development Trees clean air, and planting new samplings across the city, as was achieved in large volumes in the lead-up to the Ryder Cup, not only enhances the natural environment but also increases the capacity of the city’s ‘lungs’. However, due to the density of Newport’s AQMAs, it is a considerable challenge to provide extra green space due to the imposition of transport infrastructure on the landscape. Behaviour change, reducing reliance on the personal car for journeys, and greater logistics efficiency remain the key actions to improve air quality in Newport. Other Factors The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2011 – Physical Environment.

Road traffic volume.

Number of trees planted.

Access to green space. Data Development More detailed information on sustainable transport choices.

Municipal Waste to Landfill or Incinerated

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Data Set (Population Indicator) Municipal waste to landfill or incinerated WasteDataFlow, Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government: Data Source Local Authority Municipal Waste disposed of by landfill or incinerated, tonnes, by source and local authority (StatsWales)

Newport Municipal Waste to Landfill or Incineration

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Newport 68% 63% 62% 59% 54% 52% Wales 70% 67% 62% 59% 55% 50%

Analysis Indicator This indicator is the percentage of bio-degradable municipal waste sent to landfill.

Our way of life is very resource intensive, generating huge amounts of waste material. Efforts are made, in light of this problem, to maximise the reduction of waste and where possible the re-use and recycling of materials in order to divert waste from landfill sites. European Union (EU) pressure in the form of landfill taxes means that the need to reduce waste is more crucial than ever, and creative solutions must be found to this persistent problem. It is impossible to eliminate waste but Newport must move away from the ‘throwaway’ attitudes that create this problem, whilst continuing to maximise clean disposal of our waste.

Data trend Newport broadly follows the Welsh national trend of diminishing waste to landfill or incineration. Along with all other Welsh local authorities, Newport is concerned with maximising recycling and composting to divert waste from landfill. Newport has regularly outperformed the Wales average over the past five years, in particular forward-thinking measures such as the approval of the Docksway Waste Management Facility as a designated collection facility for waste electrical equipment in 2007 have seen us improve by as much as 4% on the comparable Wales average.

However, as can be seen the Wales national average has now caught up to Newport’s rate, as recycling rates ‘bottom out’ due to the capacity of recycling schemes to deal with materials. Once collection of domestic waste is maximised and biological waste collected, more innovative solutions become necessary to deal with the remainder, which in most cases cannot be reused, recycled, or used for compost given the current waste infrastructure.

A particular weakness of this indicator is that current performance measurement encourages recycling of waste rather than reduction. A local authority is seen as performing better by recycling 50% of 100 tonnes rather than finding ways to reduce or recycle 100% of each tonne of waste produced. Measuring recycling performance by virtue of tonnage of waste diverted from landfill has also come under criticism from bodies such as Campaign for Real Recycling, who highlight how the quality of recycling, and the method of its collection, is the most important factor – the Campaign has singled out Newport’s system as a European exemplar of efficiency and effectiveness, despite a ‘recycling rate’ that is lower than other Welsh local authorities.

What is driving the trend? The main issue facing Newport is, as discussed, the production of large volumes of residual waste that cannot be recycled or composted. The data trend supports the view that waste diversion to landfill is approaching maximisation given the existing waste infrastructure and Newport will need to identify long-term, innovative solutions to this problem if we are to avoid significant environmental and economic ramifications. Turning waste to energy is the most positive solution to these problems and Newport’s efforts should be concentrated in this area.

Current initiatives Newport’s kerbside collection scheme (in partnership with WasteSavers) has been particularly successful; not simply by increasing recycling rates, but by employing a ‘closed-loop’ system that simultaneously reduces the carbon footprint of the process.

Despite the refusal to site an energy from waste facility in the city, Newport remains one of a consortium of Welsh local authorities looking for a solution to residual waste under the banner of Prosiect Gwyrdd (Project Green). As the proposed incineration-based technology solutions have been controversial and subject to local opposition, Newport, along with the other consortium authorities, will need to ensure that an effective and environmentally friendly alternative is found. Meanwhile, further initiatives aimed at reducing waste from households are underway, such as smaller bin trials and innovative design in relation to new build housing, which has seen Newport already record encouraging recycling and composting rates.

Areas of development One of the controversial aspects of Prosiect Gwyrdd is the long-term analysis of the impacts of various types of treatment for residual waste, such as incineration. Identifying these will allow the most holistic solutions to the waste management issue to be applied and the fears of local residents to be allayed. Other Factors Waste composition - whilst there are no significant extremes in Newport’s waste composition, it is important to have an idea of where our waste is generated and what use it can be put to.

Waste from energy remains a relatively new technological facility, and Newport should keep a close eye on the successes and failures of similar schemes both nationally and internationally before committing to a long- term solution for its residual waste, whilst the pressure to reduce landfill and EU taxation allows. Data Development Construction, demolition, industrial and commercial waste data are not currently available from the Welsh Government yet are likely to account for significant amounts of landfill waste. Identifying how much of this waste is generated and from which source would allow Newport to put pressure on those who generate the most waste to assist in finding a solution for its disposal.

Total Energy Use

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Data Set (Population Indicator) Total energy use Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC), 2011 Total Sub-National Data Source Final Energy Consumption / Office for National Statistics (2011) Mid-Year Population Estimates

Newport Total Energy Use Per Capita (KWh)

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Newport 42822 41860 40807 35901 35399 Wales 36278 35958 34017 32469 32083

Analysis Indicator Energy use is a key indicator of resource consumption. Energy is an increasingly volatile and expensive global commodity due to changes in the global economy, growth in population, and environmental pressures such as diminishing reserves of oil. In order to be sustainable for the future and ensure our economy is resilient it is vital that Newport reduces its reliance on fossil fuels. Reducing carbon and energy efficiency are parallel concerns. Theoretically we could convert every kilowatt of energy supplied in Newport to renewable sources but if this energy is still poorly managed this would defeat the purpose as resources might still be wasted.

Data trend & What is driving the trend? Newport’s total energy consumption per capita has been calculated in order to compare it to a national average. We can see that whilst Newport follows the broader Welsh trend for reducing energy use, as an authority area our consumption remains higher than the national per capita figure. The indicator is very much linked to the low carbon agenda in addition to concerns over fuel security. The DECC statistic is based on actual consumption so that the total energy use reflects both technological advances in energy efficiency and also the activity of the economy. For example, we would expect this figure to reduce for 2009 to reflect the impact of the global economic downturn.

This relationship demonstrates the vulnerability of regions that depend on traditional, fossil-fuelled economies; as energy resources become scarcer, business survival will be more challenging. Newport’s energy use in the industrial and commercial sector is the main contributor (46%), with domestic end-users the smallest consumer by sector - significantly lower than the Welsh per capita consumption (22% compared to 29%). The proportion of new build properties and the success of Newport’s Affordable Warmth project have likely contributed to this trend. However, road transport use is very high in Newport (32%) when compared to that averaged across the rest of Wales (25%). We can see that whilst our energy performance

96 in the domestic sector is improving, it is balanced by relatively large consumption of energy for travel purposes. This is challenging given Newport’s connectivity to the M4 as a corridor for travel both within the city and beyond.

Current initiatives Scoping studies are underway for a number of renewable schemes, including powering the district heating system of the Duffryn estate from gas capture at the landfill site, and an anaerobic digestion facility in partnership with Rhondda Cynon Taff and Merthyr Tydfil Councils. A new biomass plant on Newport Docks developed by Nevis and Santander is under construction which offers the potential to power over 50,000 Newport homes. On the domestic front, Newport City Council in partnership with the South-East Wales Energy Alliance continues to roll out a programme of home energy efficiency schemes aimed at reducing bills and environmental impacts alike via the Arbed funding stream.

Areas of development Where Newport has lost ground on the energy agenda is in the adoption of renewable energy and the use of energy from waste. The potential within the city is yet to be maximised, with only around 0.2% of Newport’s energy generated from renewables and waste in 2008. This figure will have changed since then, with several large and small scale projects of note underway within the city. However, the economic and environmental potential for Newport, a former manufacturing powerhouse, to regain this status based on a transformed, clean-technology infrastructure is considerable. Investment in this green economy should be investigated in more depth and all progress reported. A full analysis of the clean energy generation potential within Newport would be a useful start. Newport has in the past missed opportunities to reap the considerable environmental, economic, and social benefits to be gained from the green energy market and this options appraisal would help to avoid similar missed opportunities in the future. Other Factors DECC (2011) Total Sub-National Final Energy Consumption: Industrial & Commercial, Domestic, and Road Transport Emissions – the data describes emissions by sector.

DECC (2011) Total Sub-National Final Energy Consumption: by energy source.

Newport City Council’s Reduction in Energy Use is a performance indicator used to calculate our performance under the Carbon Reduction Commitment. Data Development Renewable energy generation and capacity.

Green economy – investment, employment, number of companies, etc.

Street Cleanliness

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport has a prosperous and thriving economy Data Set (Population Indicator) Street cleanliness Data Source Data Unit Wales, Cleanliness Index (2011)

Newport Street Cleanliness Index

75.0%

70.0%

65.0%

60.0%

55.0%

50.0% 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Newport 60.5% 65.0% 68.8% 69.4% Wales 66.1% 70.1% 70.7% 71.6%

Analysis Indicator The Cleanliness Index is a key indicator of environmental standards across Wales, and describes the overall standard of cleanliness of adopted highways and relevant land within each local authority. A higher score indicates better cleanliness.

Information for 2011/12 is due to be published in July 2013.

Data trend The trend data for Newport demonstrates that whilst Newport generally exhibits a poorer standard of cleanliness than the Wales average, street cleanliness is improving, and at a sharper rate than is the norm across Wales. The data is not intended for use in comparing local authority performance as it is based on a random sample of streets in each area. However, having been in the bottom three scoring local authority areas between 2007 and 2009, Newport has climbed to 16th in 2010, and based on the sample achieved the highest score of the five former Gwent authorities. It is important to note that starting from a lower standard of cleanliness gives more room for improvement; yet despite the limitations of the data the encouraging rate of improvement is to be commended.

What is driving the trend? It is relevant to note that a 100% cleanliness record is extremely unlikely, with the highest single score achieved by any local authority during the adoption of the cleanliness index never having exceeded 78%. Keep Wales Tidy independently report that particular issues for Newport include the dropping of litter by pedestrians and dog fouling; and also has one of the highest incidences of abandoned business waste, such as envelopes and advertising material, across the whole of Wales. These observations suggest a continuing need for greater education and enforcement targeted at those whose actions continue to have a detrimental effect on our environment.

Current initiatives Many initiatives underway in Newport, such as increased recycling and marketing campaigns, will have had an affect on reducing littering, dog fouling, and graffiti. Newport has also taken a less lenient stance on those caught fly-tipping rubbish. It is important to not let the gains made in street cleanliness slip following the conclusion of the Ryder Cup and key campaigns, and partners including Newport City Council, Keep Wales Tidy, and other LSB member organisations will be instrumental in seeing Newport continue to improve.

Areas of development Profiling the demographics of people littering in Newport, their motivations for their anti-social behaviour, and identifying particular hotspots for littering, will allow agencies to prevent littering before it occurs. Schools based initiatives may be particularly successful in this respect. Other Factors Fly Tipping trends are of particular interest as supporting data as they illustrate both the cost of illegal waste dumping and the performance of the local authority in dealing with the culprits. The Welsh Government’s FlyCapture system details Newport’s current performance, and in 2010/11 Newport City Council investigated over 72% of 2586 recorded incidences of fly-tipping, resulting in further action in over 500 cases. However, the cost of clearing continues to be high, and was over £100,000 for the same period.

The independent analysis from Keep Wales Tidy’s Local Environmental Audit and Management System (LEAMS) report, published annually, gives further useful information regarding the source and composition of litter in addition to the incidence of graffiti, animal faeces, and other problems, at local authority level. Data Development None identified.

Additional Indicators

Population Indicator Baseline Data Source Wales 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 average Number of business start ups 395 385 415 405 445 Business 8,225 Demography, (2011) ONS StatsWales Number of business deaths 425 450 515 400 400 Business 8,420 Demography, (2011) ONS StatsWales Employment by sector: (All) 72,500 70,900 69,800 74,800 Welsh 1,301,600 Government (2010) Agriculture, forestry & - 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% StatsWales 2.9% fishing Production - 13.3% 13% 14.3% 11.3% Construction - 4.7% 5.4% 5.3% 6.8% Wholesale, retail, - 26.4% 25.8% 25.8% 25.9% transport, hotels & food Information & - 3.1% 3.4% 2.9% 2.0% Communication Finance & Insurance - 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 2.3% Real Estate - 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% Professional, scientific - 10.7% 9.9% 11.6% 10.8% & technical Public administration, - 31.3% 32.2% 29.7% 31.8% defense, education & health Other Service - 4.7% 4.2% 3.7% 5.1%

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People in Newport are Healthy and Thriving (Health and Wellbeing)

The health status of the population of Newport is generally comparable to that of the national average in Wales. The life expectancy of males and females has increased over the last 10 years, with life expectancy of females higher than the Wales average and life expectancy for males below the Wales national average.

Despite this, there are many specific significant health problems that need attention. A major underlying aspect of the population health status that needs to be addressed is the considerable difference in health between the richer and poorer areas of the city. This is a stark reminder of the existing inequalities in Newport.

Ill health in particular communities does not happen by chance or through bad luck. Health is multi- dimensional and is influenced by many determinants, which are not always obvious. Poor housing, unemployment, social isolation, individual lifestyle factors and the environment in which we live, can all effect on health and wellbeing.

Good progress has been made in the following areas:  The rate of low birth weight babies (those under 2500 grammes) has reduced from 81.08 per 1000 live births in 2007 to 65.48 per 100 live births in 2011, now below the Wales average  Decreasing smoking rates amongst pregnant women. The data shows across Wales there has been a 4% decline in the percentage of women that smoke before or during pregnancy  Infant mortality (the number of deaths in children aged less than one year) has reduced from 5.9 per 1000 live births in 2007 to 3.9 per 1000 live births in 2011, now below the Wales average  Uptake of the Influenza vaccine has continued to remain above the Wales average from 2007/8 to 2011/12  The rate of adults drinking over the alcohol consumption guidelines has reduced from 45% in 2008 to 42% in 2011, below the Wales average of 44%. In addition the rate of adults binge drinking has reduced from 29% in 2008 to 25% in 2011, again below the Wales average of 27%  Accessible green space in Newport is 74 hectares per 1000 population compared with the Wales average of 71.8 hectares

The key issues for Newport are:  Although there has been an increase in life expectancy, the inequality gap has also increased: Life expectancy: Inequality gap has increased from 9.5 to 11 years for males and 5.8 to 6.3 years for females Healthy life expectancy: Inequality gap has increased from 20.1 to 21 years for males and 19 to 19.7 years for females Disability free life expectancy: Inequality gap has increased from 12.7 to 1.4 years for males and 14.1 to 14.7 years for females  Breastfeeding rates have declined from 46.2% in 2007 to 41.91% in 2011. This is well below the Wales average of 55.52%  An increase in children age 5 with decayed, missing or filled teeth from 58.5% to 60.7% well above the Wales average  Uptake of the teenage booster 3 in 1 vaccine by age 16 has increased from 11.1% in 2007/8 to 50.3% in 2011/12 which is a marked increase. However this is still well below the Wales average of 71.1%.  The percentage of adults being treated for diabetes has increased form 6% in 2007 to 7% in 2011 and has been above the Wales average of 6% since 2008

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 An increase in overweight or obese adults to 60% in 2011 above the Wales average of 57%  Smoking rates have decreased from 25% in 2007 to 24% in 2011. However this reduction is not at the same rate as the Wales average which has reduced from 25% in 2007 to 23% in 2011. In addition smoking attributable mortality has also reduced from 253 per 100 000 in 2004-6 to 244 per 100 000 in 2008-10. However, again this has not reduced at the same rate as the Wales average which has reduced from 251 per 100 00 in 2004-6 to 227 per 100 000 in 2008-10  A reduction of adults meeting the fruit and vegetable consumption guidelines from 42% to 32% (below the Wales average)  No increase of adults meeting the physical activity guidelines which stands at 28% below the Wales average of 30%  A decrease in the mental health component score from 49.6 to 49.5 (below the Wales average of 49.8) and an increase in the percentage of adults being treated from mental illness from 10% to 11%  Rates of sexually transmitted disease are well above the Wales average  Number of households in temporary accommodation has increased from 115 to 270 from 2007/8 to 2011/12. Half of those households have dependent children  Fuel poverty in the whole of Wales and in Newport is increasing despite thousands benefiting from funding to increase the energy performance of their home  Welsh species of principal importance have reduced since from 65 to 44 from 2006 to 2010

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Still Birth

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Data Set (Population Indicator) Still birth rate Data Source StatsWales

Analysis Indicator The legal definition of a still birth was altered on 1st October 1992 to include babies born with 24 or more completed weeks gestation. Figures for earlier years are based on still births of 28 completed weeks gestation28.

Around two thirds of stillbirths are linked to placental complications. This means that for some reason the placenta (the organ that links the baby’s blood supply to the mother’s and nourishes the baby in the womb) is not functioning properly.

About ten percent of stillborn babies have some kind of congenital abnormality. A small percentage of stillbirths are caused by problems with the mother's health, for example pre-eclampsia, or other problems including cord accidents and infections29.

Data trend The rate of still births per 1000 births has fluctuated in Newport over the five years from 2.8 to 5.5. However, the number of still births per year are very small with on average only 8 deaths per year in Newport. The average of still births in Newport is lower than the Wales average but the difference is not statistically significant.

What is driving the trend? There are a number of things that may increase the risk of having a stillborn baby, including:  Having twins or a multiple pregnancy;  having a baby who does not reach his or her growth potential in the womb;  being over 35 years of age;  having gestational diabetes, high blood pressure or a blood-clotting disorder;  smoking, drinking alcohol or misusing drugs while pregnant;  being obese (having a body mass index of over 30);  having a pre-existing physical health condition such as epilepsy.

28 StatsWales 29 NHS Choices

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Current initiatives In Newport there are a range of services and interventions that address the wider determinants of health that can result in still birth. These include:  Maternity pathways to alcohol and substance misuse services, tobacco, diet and nutrition etc  Addressing teenage conceptions through schemes such as the local Condom Card scheme (C-Card)  Developing of the Maternity Smoking Cessation Service in Gwent (currently being piloted in Newport)  Developing the smoking cessation knowledge, skills an resources for maternity services

Areas of development Further improvement of lifestyle advice for pregnant mothers. Other Factors None. Data Development None identified.

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Low Birth Weight

Community Strategy Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Families First Outcome Children, young people and families are healthy and enjoy wellbeing Communities First Outcome Healthier communities Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of live births with a weight under 2,500 grams Data Source Health Map Wales

Analysis Indicator Low birth weight is defined by the World Health Organisation as birth weight less than 2,500 grammes. It is caused by a short gestational period or retarded intrauterine growth. Low birth weight is a major cause of infant mortality in developed countries including the UK30.

Low birth weight babies are at greater risk of problems occurring during and after birth, as well as at greater risk of chronic disease in adulthood31. Low birth weight varies widely according to socio-economic status and can be linked to areas of deprivation. For example, in England and Wales the percentage of low birth weight births was 5.4% in professional social class (based on the occupation of the father) and 9.3 % in unskilled social class V and 9.3% of births registered by mother alone32.

Data trend In Wales the rate of low birth weight babies in 2007 was 71.78 per 1000 live births. The rate increased to in 2008 to 77.04 but has decreased year on year from 2009 to 2011 were the rates were 71.85, 68.8 and 67.46 respectively. A decrease of just over 4 has been seen overall per 1000 live births.

Historically the low birth weight rate for Newport has been much higher than the Wales average. This can be seen in 2007 through to 2009 were the rates were 81.08, 83.54 and 84.23 respectively, on average approximately 10 above the Wales average. However in 2010 a marked reduction in the rate was seen to 72.11 then a further decrease to 65.48 in 2011 to below the Wales average.

What is driving the trend? The evidence of the link between low birth weight and poor lifestyle during pregnancy is strong. Specifically,

30 Stevens-Simon and Orlleans, 2009 31 National Public Health Service (NPHS), 2006 32 Macfarlane et al, 2003

105 low birth weight is associated with poor maternal general health, a low level of education, poor nutrition, alcohol consumption and smoking both pre-conceptually and during pregnancy33. There is evidence that poor maternal nutritional status at conception and inadequate maternal nutrition during pregnancy can result in low birth weight34. However, smoking is the major modifiable risk factor contributing to low birth weight. Babies born to women who smoke weigh on average 200g less than babies born to non-smokers. The incidence of low birth weight is twice as high among smokers as non-smokers35. Smoking cessation in pregnancy is strongly affected by socio-economic status, with women of lower education, income and employment status far more likely to continue smoking than women from higher socio economic status groups36. Other lifestyle choices of the mother linked to low birth weight also include their choice of diet, substance misuse including alcohol consumption during pregnancy.

Current initiatives There is a range of work being carried out in Newport to address lifestyle factors that can influence. Specific work that is targeted at pregnant women includes the role of maternity services in providing information and advice on lifestyle choices such as diet and nutrition, alcohol and smoking. As part of the pregnancy pathway pregnant women can be referred onto appropriate services including substance misuses and alcohol services.

A Maternity Smoking Cessation Programme is currently underway in Newport, which not only considers the smoking behaviour of the pregnant mother, but the family as a whole. This programme is aimed at pregnant women in socially deprived areas. Intensive smoking cessation support is offered to women and their families throughout pregnancy and the postnatal period

Areas of development To continue work with a range of key partners to target pregnant women’s lifestyle choices and behaviours especially around diet, nutrition, smoking, alcohol and substance misuse. Other Factors This indicator can be linked to rate of smoking in pregnancy. It is anticipated that more data will be available soon from the smoking cessation pilot programme. Data Development None identified.

33 National Public Health Service (NPHS), 2006 34 Kramer, 2007 35 Messecar, 2001 36 Graham and Der, 2009

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Breastfeeding

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of live births by breastfeeding status at birth Data Source Health Map Wales

Analysis Indicator This data is routinely collected by each Health Board in the Child Health Database and reported to the Welsh Government it provides a measure of women that breastfeed at birth. However, this indicator doesn’t provide an indication of those mothers that continue to breastfeed for any sustained period of time.

Research shows that breastfeeding contributes to health in both the short and long term, providing essential nutrients and protective factors for babies in early life. For example, babies who are not breastfed are many times more likely to acquire infections such as gastroenteritis in their first year. It is estimated that if all UK infants were exclusively breastfed, the number hospitalised each month with diarrhoea would be halved, and the number hospitalised with a respiratory infection would be cut by a quarter37 .

The close mother-baby contact provided by breastfeeding promotes emotional attachment between mother and child which is crucial for later emotional health and wellbeing in childhood. There are numerous benefits to the health of babies and their mother in both the long and short term.

Babies that are breastfeed are at a lower risk of:  Gastro intestinal infection;  Respiratory illness;  Coronary heart disease;  Obesity;  Ear infections;  Urinary tract infections;  Early onset insulin diabetes;  Allergies such as eczema;  Leukaemia and childhood cancers.

Mothers that breastfeed are at a lower risk of:  Pre menopausal breast cancer;  Ovarian cancer;

37 NICE (2008). Improving the Nutrition of Pregnant and Breastfeeding Mothers and Children in Low Income Households

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 Hip fractures, low bone density, osteoporosis and rheumatoid arthritis;  Are more likely to return to pre-pregnancy weight;

Data trend In 2007, relatively lower rates of breastfeeding were recorded for Newport mothers at just 46.20%. This increased slightly to 49.16% in 2008 but has decreased year on year since then. In 2009 the rate was 45.33%, in 2010 it was 43.12% and in 2011 was 41.91%. This is well below the Wales average rate which has stayed relatively constant, varying slightly between 55 and 57%.

What is driving the trend? Despite the focus of health professionals on encouraging mothers to breast feed their babies, there continues to be a decline in the rate of breastfeeding at birth. Research has shown that mothers in lower socio-economic groups are less likely to choose to breastfeed and get poorer advice and support than middle class mothers38. The situation has not been helped by the way in which breastfeeding has been presented as part of a middle class lifestyle.

There have been difficulties associated with the definition of the indicator and how the data was collected by midwives in different hospitals/Health Boards. This may have resulted in over/under reporting performance against this measure. A shift towards the standardisation of data recording and reporting will help to ensure more robust reporting in the future.

Current initiatives In Newport, the Flying Start health programme are working with vulnerable families from deprived areas (based on the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation) by providing additional support and advice on breastfeeding in targeted areas.

The UNICEF Baby Friendly Initiative in the Community is currently being undertaken by Aneurin Bevan Health Board (ABHB) on a pan Gwent basis. Both the Royal Gwent Hospital and Newport Flying Start programme are part of the UNICEF initiative. This initiative has had great success in raising breastfeeding rates in developed and developing countries alike, some of whom report 95% of women choosing to breast feed their babies at birth.

Areas of development Another area of development is the need for more data on the tracking of mothers that continue to breastfeed over a sustained period of time i.e. after 5 days, 4 weeks, 6 weeks, 6 months.

The continuation of education/awareness campaigns continues to be priority for promoting breastfeeding. Equally the continued emphasis on initiatives and schemes such as the Baby Friendly Initiative and breastfeeding support groups and mentoring will help to ensure that mothers feel supported and can continue to breastfeed for longer. Other Factors None identified. Data Development Improvements are needed on how data on breastfeeding is collected and reported. It is hoped that the standardisation of data collection will result in more robust reporting of numerator values for mothers who are breastfeeding at birth. This will enable any trends in data to be corresponded more accurately to valid activity/initiatives and interventions. There is the need for more measurement data on women that continue to breastfeed more than: 5 days, 4 weeks, 6 weeks, and 6 months.

38 M K Minchin, 2003

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Infant Mortality

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Data Set (Population Indicator) Infant mortality rate Data Source Office for National Statistics (ONS)

Analysis Indicator The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths in children aged less than one year as a rate per 1,000 live births in the same period. It is considered to be an important indicator of the level of health in a community and is associated with socio economic deprivation. The main cause of infant mortality in a study of births in England and Wales was found to be premature birth (46%)39. Other causes may include congenital anomalies, infections and sudden infant deaths.

Data trend The Wales average has stayed relatively constant only varying from 4.2 to 4.5 during the period. The general trend for Newport shows a decrease, which appears greater than that for Wales as a whole. However, the number of infant deaths per year is very small - for 2007 to 2009, there were approximately 8 deaths each year in Newport. For 2006-2008 and 2007-2009 the rate for Newport has been lower than that for Wales, but the differences are not statistically significant.

What is driving the trend? Evidence shows that some infant mortalities are linked to a range of factors including socio economic deprivation40, quality and access to antenatal care, maternal smoking and passive smoking, teenage pregnancies, maternal alcohol and substance misuse and nutrition and intake of folic acid.

Current initiatives In Newport there are a range of services and interventions that address the wider determinants of health that can result in infant mortality. These include:  Maternity pathways to alcohol and substance misuse services, tobacco, diet and nutrition etc  Addressing teenage conceptions through schemes such as the local Condom Card scheme (C-Card)

Areas of development The areas of future development include:  Developing the capacity, knowledge, skills and resources of midwifery services through the Gwent

39 National Public Health Service (NPHS), 2006 40 National Public Health Service (NPHS), 2006

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Public Health Strategic Framework  Development of the Maternity Smoking Cessation Service in Gwent

Due to the wider determinants that need to be addressed, there are a range of partners involved. These include maternity services, which are a key partner and will need to be supported by wider agencies such as substance misuse services, dieticians, mental health services, Public Health Wales and Stop Smoking Wales. Other Factors None. Data Development None identified.

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Early Years Vaccination

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Families First Outcome Children, young people and families are healthy and enjoy wellbeing Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of Children Fully Immunised by their 4th Birthday Data Source Public Health Wales (Annual COVER Reports)

Analysis Indicator Surveillance data on the uptake of scheduled childhood vaccinations is collected nationally by Public Health Wales on annual and quarterly basis and reported via the COVER (Coverage of Vaccination Evaluation Rapidly Report). This provides a snapshot of uptake data at both the national and local levels. The reported data sets cover all UK routine childhood scheduled immunisations for children reaching key birthdays during the recording period.

Uptake of childhood immunisation during the early years of a child’s development is vital to ensuring that children build up immunity and resistance to infectious diseases that could make a child seriously ill or in some cases be fatal.

Data trend The percentage of children fully immunised by their 4th birthday has only been collated for one year (2011/12) so a trend has yet to be established. However during 2011/12 the percentage of children fully immunised by their 4th birthday in Newport is 76.5% which is below the Wales average of 80.8% and the Aneurin Bevan Health Board average of 80.9%. It is important to note that the percentage difference between Newport and Wales of 4.3% in 2011/12 only equates to 76 children in Newport.

What is driving the trend? Generally uptake rates for early childhood vaccinations remain consistently high in Newport. This generally reflects the involvement of the health visitor and the regular input and contact that parents have with them. In the majority of cases the health visitors will undertake the vaccinations in most GP surgeries and are responsible for the follow up work with parents that have not taken their child for an immunisation. The health visitor’s role is also vital in making parents more aware of the needs for their child. Over the course of a child’s development health visitors develop a good rapport and relationship with the parents of the children on their caseload, so are effective in encouraging parents to take their children to be vaccinated.

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Current initiatives The Aneurin Bevan Health Board (ABHB) is currently providing training on vaccination to support clinical workers. This has increased staff capacity to deal effectively with patients who are ambiguous about taking up vaccinations. Such training has helped to support the clinical workers to confidently explain the facts associated with the vaccine to encourage parents to get their children immunised.

Due to the outbreak of measles in South Wales in recent months a high profile campaign and extra MMR immunisation clinics have taken place to encourage those that have not had the MMR jab to come forward.

Areas of development To continue to focus on increasing uptake through raising awareness of the importance of vaccination through GP surgeries and health visitors. Other Factors Other data sets relating to the routine childhood immunisation schedule available via the COVER reports published by Public Health Wales. Data Development To establish trend data over the next few years.

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Dental Health

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Percentage decayed, missing or filled teeth greater than zero for 5 year olds Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of decayed, missing or filled teeth greater than zero for 12 year olds Data Source Welsh Oral Health Survey

Analysis Indicator The Welsh Oral Health Information Unit (WOHIU) plans and delivers the British Association for the study of Community Dentistry (BASCD) co-ordinated national surveys of children and young people’s oral health together with other epidemiological surveys of priority groups within Wales.

The levels of decayed, missing and filled teeth (dmft) varies by unitary authority, but as highlighted by the WOHIU survey, oral health status is clearly linked to levels of deprivation. The trends indicate that children living in deprived areas with are much more likely to experience decayed missing or filled teeth than children living in more affluent areas.

Data trend The last survey undertaken for 5 year olds was in 2007/08 and 2008/09 for 12 year olds. The data shows that Newport has the second highest percentage of dmfts in 5 years at 60.7% compared to other local authorities

113 in Wales. The average decay experience (dmft>0) for Wales was 47.6%. The variance between local authority areas can be quite significant. For example, the lowest decay experience (dmft>0) was 28.3% in the more affluent area of Vale of Glamorgan.

5 year old dmft In Newport, between 2003/04 and 2005/06 the decay experience (dmft>0) of 5 year old children declined from 58% to 56%. However by the 2007/08 survey this increased to 60.7%. It is worth noting that 2007/08 data is not comparable to previous years as it was carried out under ‘positive consent’ by parents. Previous surveys were carried out under ‘negative consent’. Therefore, the participation rate in 2007/08 was low compared to previous years. Despite this, there is still an unacceptably high number of five year olds who have untreated and decayed teeth in Newport.

12 year old dmft A slightly different picture emerges for percentage of dmfts for 12 year olds. The last survey was undertaken during 2008/09. The data graph shows that between 2004/05 and 2008/09 the percentage of dmfts in 12 years remained relatively static showing only a slight increase from 46.3% (2004/05) to 46.5% (2008/09). However, the average decay experience (dmft>0) for Wales in 2003/04 was 45.1% and decreased to 42.5% in 2008/09. Despite the static trend for Newport data, when compared with the average percentage dmfts in Wales it seems a wider gap is emerging.

What is driving the trend? The most effective method of maintaining good oral health is the daily application of fluoride to the surface of the teeth (via tooth brushing with fluoride toothpaste). The avoidance of consuming sugary foods and sugary / fizzy drinks is also understood to be beneficial to oral health, as regular consumption of these foods and drinks are known to have detrimental effects on teeth.

The increase in the decay experience in 5 and 12 year olds could possibly be linked to a lack of children brushing their teeth daily with fluoride toothpaste. Additionally, poor nutrition / diets with frequent consumption of sugary food and sugary / fizzy drinks could also be a contributing factor. The direct link between poor oral health and areas of deprivation is well documented, with wider lifestyle choices including poor dental hygiene and poor diet understood to be major contributing factors to poor oral health. Some areas of Newport are considered to be deprived areas, with a total of ten wards receiving Welsh Government Communities First funding. This element of deprivation within Newport could be an additional factor for a higher rate of decay experience of 5 and 12 year olds in comparison to the Wales average.

In younger children, poor oral health may be related to a lack of parental awareness of the appropriate type of toothpaste and tooth brushing techniques, as well as appropriate consumption of food and drinks.

Current initiatives Oral health awareness programmes can have a profound impact on raising awareness of oral health and promoting registration with dentists. Designed to Smile is a Welsh Government funded national oral health programme which aims to reduce oral health inequalities by improving the oral health of children in deprived communities. The programme delivers oral health promotion and fluoride supplementation within the context of improving general health and wellbeing within school and pre-school settings in the Communities First areas of Newport.

Areas of development The data shows that dental health continues to be an area of need within Newport, therefore it is essential that children receive oral health promotion messages, including application of toothpaste containing fluoride and awareness of the risks associated with the consumption of sugary foods and drinks on oral health. It is

114 also important that access is available to local NHS dental services as well as the Community Dental Service to address treatment of decayed teeth as appropriate. Other Factors The Designed to Smile data supplied to the Welsh Government would be beneficial for analysis alongside the 5 and 12 year old data. Data Development More frequent data for 5 years and 12 years needs to be available.

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Immunisation & Vaccinations – Children and young people

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Percentage uptake of complete 3 doses of HPV vaccine by 14th Birthday Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage uptake of 3 in 1 teenage booster by 16th Birthday Data Source Public Health Wales (Annual COVER Reports)

Analysis Indicator Surveillance data on the uptake of scheduled childhood vaccinations is collected nationally by Public Health Wales on annual and quarterly basis and reported via the Coverage of Vaccination Evaluation Rapidly Report (COVER)41. This provides a snapshot of uptake data at both the national and local levels. The reported data sets cover all UK routine childhood scheduled immunisations for children reaching key birthdays during the recording period.

Percentage uptake of complete 3 doses of HPV vaccine by 14th Birthday HPV vaccination protects girls against cervical cancer associated with HPV types 16 and 18. The routine HPV vaccination schedule consists of three doses, usually given to girls in school Year 8 at intervals of one to two months, then six months. This vaccine is a relatively new vaccine and was administered for the first time in 2008/9.

Percentage uptake of 3 in 1 teenage booster by 16th Birthday The 3 in 1 teenage booster by age 16 protects young people from Tetanus, Diphtheria and Polio. During a person’s lifetime they require 5 doses of Tetanus, Diphtheria and Polio in order to build up and maintain

41 Public Health Wales, COVER Reports on uptake of scheduled childhood vaccinations

116 immunity to these diseases. The first 3 doses of the vaccine are usually administered as a baby and the fourth around 3 years of age and the final dose between the ages of 13 to 18.

Data trend HPV In the first year of the vaccine (2008/9) the uptake rate of the three doses of HPV vaccine in girls (reaching their 14th birthday) was 48% in Newport and 29.7% on average across Wales. In the 2nd year (2009/10) the uptake had increased to 78.1% in Newport and 85.3% on average across Wales. In 2010/11 the Newport rate increased to 80.3%, whereas the Wales rate decreased to 81.6%. In 2011/12 a further increase to 83.4% was seen in Newport, with the Wales average at 85.5%.

3 in 1 teenage booster The uptake rate of the 3 in 1 teenage booster by age 16 has remained consistently low in Newport during the period 2007/8 to 2010/11, increasing slightly from 11.1% in 2007/8 to 16.3% in 2010/11. This is in contrast to the Wales average which has increased from 56% in 2007/8 to 60.8% in 2010/11.

In 2011/12 the uptake rate in Newport has increased significantly to 50.3%. The Wales average has also increased to 71.1%.

What is driving the trend? HPV The data over the last two years shows there has been a significant improvement in the uptake rates of HPV vaccine in Newport. This is a picture that is mirrored across the rest of Wales. Improved uptake can be attributed to sustained public confidence and normalisation of the vaccine. A national media campaign that was targeted at young girls to promote the vaccine may have also encouraged more young girls to get vaccinated. The vaccine is administered in schools by school nurses, which has helped to target the majority of the population with the exception of young girls who are not in mainstream education (excluded pupils) and those in the Youth Offending Service.

3 in 1 teenage booster The low rates for uptake of the teenage have remained consistently low booster from 2007/8 to 2010/11 when compared with the rest of Wales. These low figures could be because the vaccine has not been administered in the Aneurin Bevan Health Board areas in the same way as other health boards in Wales. For example, up until 2010/11 there is no recall system in place for teenage patients in primary care centres for patients not getting vaccinated. A review by the Cochrane Library42 of patient reminder and recall systems identified that reminding patients to have vaccinations was an effective way of boosting uptake rates. The review found these observations to be true for both children and adults with the exception of one study on adolescents in an urban area43. In the past administration of the booster was in GP surgeries. Since 2010/11 the booster was been given to teenagers aged 15/16 in schools by school nurses, which has also helped to boost take up rates.

Current initiatives HPV The implementation of a national media campaign supported by Public Health and the Welsh Government has been effective along with the introduction of a catch up programme of young girls that missed their vaccination.

42 Jacobson Vann JC, Szilagyi P. Patient reminder and recall systems to improve immunization rates. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2005, Issue 3 43 Jacobson Vann JC, Szilagyi P. Patient reminder and recall systems to improve immunization rates. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2005, Issue 3

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3 in 1 teenage booster A catch up programme is now in place to encourage young people who have missed initial vaccine. The implementation of the Get Protected promotional campaign in 2011 targets young people in schools and primary care to raise awareness of the vaccine and encourage uptake.

Areas of development HPV The challenge facing public health is to sustain increased uptake rates particularly for girls in the older age group (where a catch up vaccination is offered) and those who are not in full time education to ensure they are offered the opportunity to protect themselves from cervical cancer associated with HPV types 16 and 18.

3 in 1 teenage booster To continue to focus on increasing uptake through the catch up programme and raising awareness of the importance of vaccination via the Get Protected campaign. Other Factors None. Data Development None identified.

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Conception Rate

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Families First Outcome Children, young people and families are healthy and enjoy wellbeing Data Set (Population Indicator) Under 16 conception rate per thousand females aged 13-15 years old Data Source Office for National Statistics (StatsWales)

Analysis Indicator Teenage pregnancy is an important indicator associated with increased risk of poor social, economic and health outcomes for both mother and child. Teenage parents are more likely than their peers to live in poverty and unemployment.

Data trend Under 16 conception rates in Wales are the highest in the UK. The under 16 conception rate in Wales during 2007 was 8.5 per thousand population compared with 7.8 per thousand population in England in 2008. The Welsh Government, as part of its general Sexual Health Strategy has identified the reduction in teenage pregnancies as a priority area.

In 2006 conception rates for under 16s in Newport stood at 8.7 (26 conceptions), comparable to the Wales average of 8.6. In 2007 a slight increase to 8.8 (25 conceptions) was seen in Newport, with the Wales average decreasing slightly to 8.5. The Newport rate decreased in 2008 to 7.9 (22 conceptions), below the Wales average of 8.3. In 2009 a marked increase to 9.6 (26 conceptions) was seen against a Wales average of 7.3. Finally in 2010 a decrease to 6.2 (17 conceptions) was seen in Newport below the Wales average of 7.8.

What is driving the trend? There has been a gradual reduction in conception rates in Wales in the last five years. This could be attributed to the increase in the use of long acting reversible contraception (LARCs) in teenagers.

Current initiatives Initiatives are in place to increase the awareness and uptake of LARC through the “Empower to Choose” project and the standardisation of the C-Card scheme (free condom distribution service for young people aged 13-25 years) across areas of Gwent.

Areas of development In terms of areas of development, there is the need to further focus on sexual health awareness and

119 education programmes across the range of partners. Other factors Links to data on Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs). Data Development None identified.

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Sexual Health

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Prevalence of Sexually Transmitted Diseases/Infections 2010 Data Set (Population Indicator) Diagnoses of Sexually Transmitted Infections 2010 Public Health Wales, HIV and STI trends in Wales – Surveillance Report Data Source April 2012

Analysis Indicator These indicators were sourced from the HIV and STI trends in Wales Surveillance Report April 2012 published by Public Health Wales Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre for the Public Health Wales Sexual Health Programme. The report is predominantly based on KC60 returns from Genito Urinary Medicines (GUM) clinics.

HIV HIV continues to remain an important communicable disease in Wales. It is an infection associated with serious morbidity, high costs of treatment and care, significant mortality and high number of potential years of life lost.

Syphilis Syphilis is caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum, a spirochete that is a bacteria-like organism. In the UK, syphilis infection has become more common in recent years, particularly amongst gay men. The

121 condition is especially significant for pregnant women where infection can cause miscarriage, still birth, or foetal abnormality.

Gonorrhoea Gonorrhoea is a sexually acquired infection caused by the bacterium Neisseria gonorrhoeae. After genital chlamydia, gonorrhoea is the second most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection in the UK.44 If treated early, gonorrhea is unlikely to lead to any complications or long-term problems. However, without treatment it can spread to other parts of your body and cause serious problems. The more times that you have gonorrhea, the more likely you are to get complications.  In women, gonorrhea can spread to the reproductive organs and cause pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). PID can lead to long-term pelvic pain, ectopic pregnancy and infertility.  In men, gonorrhea can cause painful infection in the testicles and prostate gland, which may lead to reduced fertility.45

Genital Chlamydia Genital Chlamydia trachomatis is the most commonly diagnosed bacterial STI in the UK. Highest rates are seen in young people, especially men and women under 24 years. Genital chlamydial infection is an important reproductive health problem, because 10-30% of untreated infected women develop PID. A significant proportion of cases, particularly amongst women, are asymptomatic and so, are liable to remain undetected, putting women at risk of developing PID.

Genital Herpes Genital herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection is the most common ulcerative sexually transmitted disease in the UK. It is associated with considerable physical and psychological morbidity and may frequently recur. It can cause severe systemic disease in neonates and immunosuppressed hosts and may facilitate HIV transmission.

Anogenital Warts Anogenital warts are usually small warts or growths found on or around the penis, anus or vagina. They are caused by the human papillomavirus (HPV). Warts are the most common viral STI diagnosed in the UK, with highest rates of new cases in 20-24 year old men and 16-19 year old women.46

Data trend In 2010, prevalence of HIV, Syphilis and Gonorrhoea in Newport was above the Wales average. In addition diagnosis of Chlamydia, Genital Herpes and Anogenital Warts in Newport was also above the Wales average.

What is driving the trend? HIV In Wales, in 2010, prevalence of HIV/AIDS remained highest in the urban centres of South Wales and along the North Wales coast. The routes for transmission for those receiving treatment in 2010 were:  sex between men (52.3%);  heterosexual sex (40.5%);  acquired through blood or blood products (1.7%);  Injecting drug users (2.3%)  Mother to child (2.0%)

44 Public Health Wales Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, HIV and STI Trends in Wales Surveillance Report April 2012 45 NHS Choices 46 Public Health Wales Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, HIV and STI Trends in Wales Surveillance Report April 2012

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Syphilis Cases of infectious syphilis have typically been seen in white men who have sex with men (MSM) aged 25-34 years, many of whom are co-infected with HIV. However, recently there have been several reports of syphilis outbreaks among young heterosexuals from across the UK. Cases in Newport although above the Wales average are currently low.

Gonorrhoea 64.1% of the episodes of uncomplicated gonorrhoea were reported in males, of which 19.1% were in MSM. Uncomplicated gonorrhoea was most frequently reported in males aged 25-34 (34.7%) in 2010, as opposed to the 20-24 years group amongst females (38.9%).

Genital Chlamydia Unlike for HIV, syphilis or, to a lesser extent, gonorrhoea, only a very small proportion of men diagnosed with anogenital chlamydia report acquiring their infection through sex with men. In 2010, episodes of uncomplicated chlamydia were most frequently reported in those aged 20-24 years-old for males, and 16-19 years-old for women.

Genital Herpes In 2010, there was a 13% increase in episodes of anogenital herpes simplex (first attack) reported by the GUM clinics in Wales compared with 2009. Episodes were most frequently reported to be in 20-24 year-old males and females, representing 35.8% of all cases. In 2010, the number of cases remained higher amongst females aged 20 to 24 years.

Anogenital Warts The number of first attack cases of anogenital warts has decreased, in Wales in 2010 compared to first attack episodes in 2009. In 2010, episodes of first attack anogenital warts were most frequently reported in 20-24 year-old males and females. The number of cases was higher in females under the age of 20 when compared to males. However, this trend reversed when looking at older age groups.

Current initiatives To address the issue of sexually transmitted infections amongst the under 25s, a number of existing practices are in place. One such initiative is the Condom Card (C-Card) scheme that is widely used across Newport by young people to access free condoms by signing up for a C-Card. In addition to the C-Card scheme a parenting guide has been produced that covers aspects of sexual health, alcohol, drugs, healthy living to enable parents to support their children.

School nurses currently raise awareness of the C-Card in schools in Newport. Next steps include engaging with schools to assess for and distribute the C-Card in schools. One potential area for development includes the development of Speak Easy Training, however this is dependent upon funding opportunities.

Areas of development The data indicates there is the need for a greater focus on collaboration in relation to awareness raising and sexual health outreach work. Other Factors None Data Development There is the need for more regular local information on sexually transmitted infections.

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Diabetes

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of people currently being treated for diabetes Data Source Welsh Health Survey

Analysis Indicator This indicator is sourced from the Welsh Health Survey and is self-reported. Respondents are asked if they are currently being treated for diabetes. This self-reporting may impact on the reliability of the results.

Diabetes is a condition which develops when:  the pancreas does not provide enough insulin to absorb glucose (sugar) which is the source of energy that our bodies use from the digestion of our food into our cells; or  the cells in our bodies cannot use the insulin produced by the pancreas effectively enough to absorb the glucose required for energy. Because of this, levels of blood sugar can become too high.

There are two types of diabetes:  Type 1 (primarily inherited/genetic); and  Type 2 (can develop due to a variety of causes).

Diabetes is an important population indicator due to the severe consequences of the condition. Diabetes can lead to blindness, kidney failure, heart disease and circulatory problems which can lead to lower-extremity amputations. 50% of people with diabetes die of cardiovascular disease, primarily heart disease and stroke47. Many of these conditions not only impact on health but also the quality of life of the individual and increased care required, reducing independence.

Data trend The national trend for Wales is stable with 6% of the population reporting being treated for diabetes, which has not changed since 2007. However, the Newport trend was equal to the Wales average in 2007 then increased to 7% in 2008 and 8% in 2009. In 2010 a decrease to 7% was seen and this was maintained in 2011, 1% above the Wales average.

What is driving the trend? The increased prevalence of diabetes may be due to a range of causes:  Family history of the condition - if a close member of the family has either type of diabetes there is an

47 World Health Organisation

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increased risk to other family individuals;  Ethnic origin - individuals from black or south Asian descent are at a higher risk of developing diabetes;  Obesity - there is a strong recognised link between being overweight/obese and developing diabetes. (Waist circumference can be used to predict risk as a larger waist carriers more risk. An increased risk of diabetes is present if waist circumference is 31.5 inches or over for women; 35 inches or over for Asian men and 37 inches or over for white and black men).48 See Obesity.

Current initiatives DESMOND - a 6 hour programme lasting 1-2 days focusing on helping newly diagnosed diabetics change their lifestyle in order to manage their diabetes.

Education for Patients Programme - chronic Disease Self Management Programme. An NHS initiative that was launched in 2002 to help patients with chronic conditions to take control of their lives.

Exercise Referral - a specific diabetes and weight management programme has been implemented.

See interventions put in place to prevent Obesity, Smoking, Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol.

Areas of development In the future the Obesity Pathway will ensure services are available from prevention to clinical intervention. The prevention agenda will be important in reducing risk of obesity and the subsequent risk of diabetes. Other Factors This data is collated through Welsh Health Survey which is self-reported. As diabetes is a diagnosed condition we may be able to obtain clinical prevalence of the condition. Data Development Age, sex breakdown, ethnicity (this may show diabetes present at a younger age due to increase childhood obesity).

Breakdown of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes.

48 Diabetes UK

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Heart and Cardiovascular

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving All cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality (age standardised) per 100,000 population Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of adults currently being treated for any heart condition Percentage of adults currently being treated for high blood pressure Health Map Wales Data Source Welsh Health Survey

Analysis Indicator All CVD mortality / death rate (age standardised)* per 100,000 population This data is sourced from Health Map Wales and is the number of deaths from CVD per 100,000 of the population. Cause of death is based on the underlying cause of death as provided on the individual’s death certificate. There are four main types of CVD. These are coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral arterial disease and aortic disease. CVD is a big health problem and the leading cause of death both in the UK and worldwide.49

*Age standardisation - These rates are expressed as the number per 100 000 that would occur in that area if it had the same age structure as the standard population.

49 NHS Choices

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Percentage of adults currently being treated for a heart condition (excluding high blood pressure) and Percentage of adults currently being treated for high blood pressure These datasets are sourced from the Welsh Health Survey and are self-reported. Respondents are asked if they are currently being treated for a heart condition (excluding high blood pressure) or being treated for a high blood pressure.

Data trend All CVD mortality / death rate (age standardised) per 100,000 population In Wales, the death rate due to CVD has gradually reduced from 203.42 in 2007 to 156.56 in 2011. A similar picture has been seen in Newport overall with the rate decreasing from 201.64 in 2007 to 154.7 in 2011.

Percentage of adults currently being treated for a heart condition In Wales, the percentage of adults reporting they are currently being treated for a heart condition between 2007 to 2011 has stayed constant at 9%. In Newport, the figure has also remained fairly consistent during the same period and is currently also at 9%.

Percentage of adults currently being treated for high blood pressure In Wales, the latest figure shows 20% of adults currently report being treated for high blood pressure. This figure has remained relatively constant over the 5 years. However a reduction to 19% was seen in 2008. In Newport, the rate has fluctuated. In 2007 the rate stood at 20%, then increased to 22% in 2008, reduced to 21% in 2009, then reduced again in 2011 to 20% to equal the Wales average.

What is driving the trend? There are nine main risk factors for CVD. These are:  smoking;  poor diet;  lack of exercise or physical activity;  being overweight or obese;  excessive alcohol consumption;  stress;  high blood pressure;  High blood cholesterol;  Diabetes; (see Diabetes)

Factors that can increase your risk of developing high blood pressure include:  age (the risk of developing high blood pressure increases as you get older);  a family history of high blood pressure (the condition seems to run in families);  being of African or Caribbean origin;  a high amount of salt in your food ;  a lack of exercise;  being overweight or obese;  smoking;  drinking large amounts of alcohol; and  stress.

Many of the risk factors are linked, which means that if you have one of the risk factors you are also likely to have others.50

50 NHS Choices

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The reduction in CVD mortality could be partly due to reduction in smoking levels (see Smoking). All of the other risk factors listed above are not improving (see Obesity, Physical Activity, Nutrition, Diabetes & Alcohol) in the Newport area. In addition (as can be seen above) there has been no decrease in the percentage of adults being treated for a heart condition or high blood pressure. This does suggest that the reduction in mortality could be partly due to improvements in treatment and medicines for these conditions.

Current initiatives  Education for Patient programme – Chronic disease self-management programme  Improved condition and medicine management. Also see Obesity, Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Diabetes and Smoking.

Areas of development See Obesity, Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Diabetes and Smoking. Other Factors None. Data Development Age, gender and localised data.

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Respiratory Illness

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Percentage currently being treated for any respiratory illness Data Set (Population Indicator) Respiratory Disease – Mortality / death rates (age standardised) per 100,000 population Welsh Health Survey Data Source Health Map Wales

Analysis Indicator Percentage currently being treated for any respiratory illness This data is sourced from the Welsh Health Survey which is self-reported. Respondents are asked if they are currently being treated for respiratory illness.

Respiratory illness – mortality / death rates This data is sourced from Health Map Wales and is age standardised per 100,000 population and is based on the underlying cause of death as provided in the individuals death certificate.

Respiratory disease is a very common cause of ill health, hospitalisation and death. Respiratory disease includes:  Pneumonia  Lung diseases due to external agents such as coalminers pneumoconiosis  Chronic lower respiratory diseases such as emphysema, asthma, chronic obstructive and pulmonary

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disease  Acute upper and lower respiratory tract infections including a common cold and acute bronchitis51

Data trend Percentage currently being treated for any respiratory illness In Wales, the percentage of people currently being treated for respiratory illness has remained relatively constant over the last 5 years, and was 14% in 20011. In Newport, the figure has also remained fairly constant and was below the Wales average until 2010 when it increased to 14% and has remained at that level in line with the Wales average.

Respiratory illness – mortality / death rates In Wales, the death rate for respiratory illness has varied over the last 5 years with a small reduction from 76.6 per 100 000 in 2007 to 72.85 per 100 000 in 2011. In Newport, the death rate has also varied over the 5 years with no real reduction. The rate was 68.27 per 100 000 in 2007 and 68.81 per 100 000 in 2011.

What is driving the trend? There are a range of factors that impact upon respiratory disease including52:  Inadequate lung development in childhood;  Passive smoking;  Genetics;  Air pollution;  Occupational exposure to materials such as dust;  Asbestos fibres and other irritant particles;  Social deprivation;  Socio economic status; and  Smoking.

It is important to note that smokers are at greater risk of developing a number of diseases, which include a range of respiratory diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases53. The UK Scientific Committee on Tobacco and Health concluded in 1998 that contact with second-hand smoke causes lung cancer and heart disease among adult non-smokers and respiratory disease, cot death and asthma among children54.

Current initiatives There are a range of influencing factors driving the trends, some of which are being addressed across a range of teams, projects and departments. It should be noted that some of the wider factors driving these trends are genetic and therefore we are unable to prevent.

In Newport, there is a variety of work being conducted to address social deprivation, including the role of Communities First where specific needs are identified in local action plans (with wider partners such as education and health services supporting these). Other teams such as Flying Start and Sure Start are also funded to specifically target areas of deprivation.

A number of interventions are currently being carried out to address smoking, which are highlighted in the

51 (Ash Wales, 2011. Smoking and Respiratory Disease Factsheet. Accessed on 9th December 2011: http://www.ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_110.pdf) 52 Ash Wales, 2011. Smoking and Respiratory Disease Factsheet. Accessed on 9th December 2011: http://www.ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_110.pdf British Lung Foundation, 2006 Royal College of Physicians Tobacco Advisory Group (2000). Nicotine addiction in Britain. London: Royal College of Physicians. 53 Royal College of Physicians Tobacco Advisory Group, 2000 Report of the Scientific Committee on Tobacco and Health (1998). London: Department of Health 54 Department of Health, 1998

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Smoking section.

Viruses such as flu (influenza) are known to complicate already existing respiratory illnesses. The flu vaccine is targeted at people with chronic conditions, including respiratory illnesses in an attempt to prevent serious complications as a result of contracting flu during winter months.

Areas of development See Smoking section. Other Factors None. Data Development Localised data, age, gender

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Cancer

Community Strategy Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Communities First Outcome Healthier communities Cancer (excluding melanoma skin cancer) incidence (age Data Set (Population Indicator) standardised) rates per 100,000 population Data Source Health Map Wales

Analysis Indicator This data set is sourced from Health Map Wales and is the number of incidences (age standardised) of all cancers except melanoma per 100 000 population. Age standardisation rates are expressed as the number per 100,000 that would occur in that area if it had the same age structure as the standard population.

Cancer is a common condition. In 2009, 320,467 new cases of cancer were diagnosed in the UK. More than one in three people will develop some form of cancer during their lifetime. In the UK, the most common types of cancer are breast cancer, prostate cancer, lung cancer, bowel cancer, bladder cancer and uterine (womb) cancer.55

Data trend Cancer incidence (excluding melanoma) per 100 000 population The Wales average trend is relatively stable decreasing slightly over the five years from 418.07 in 2006 to 411.70 in 2010. In Newport the incidence rate has fluctuated from 361.34 to 417.97 over the 5 years but is below the Wales average currently.

What is driving the trend? A recent study56 has found that tobacco smoking was the biggest risk factor for cancer, responsible for over 19% of all new cases. Other factors included being overweight (5.5% of cases), having a poor diet (9.2%) and drinking too much alcohol (4%). As cancers usually have multiple causes, these figures do not mean that specific people can be identified whose cancer was caused by each of these factors, but they can help to estimate how many cases could be prevented by cutting out all of these harmful factors.

The researchers compiled a total of 14 lifestyle and environmental factors for which there is good evidence from high quality studies of a likely causal association with cancer:

55 NHS Choices 56 Parkin DM. The fraction of cancer attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors in the UK in 2010. British Journal of Cancer, 2011

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 tobacco  alcohol  four elements of diet (consumption of red and processed meat, fruit and vegetables, fibre and salt)  being overweight  lack of physical exercise  occupation  infections  radiation (ionising and solar)  use of hormones after menopause (such as in HRT)  breastfeeding

Current initiatives  The smoking ban came into force in 2006, which in turn has led to a cultural change regarding attitudes to smoking.  Smoking Cessation service  Education for Patients Programme – chronic disease self management programme (an NHS initiative that was launched in 2002 to help patients with chronic conditions to take control of their lives)  Health Challenge Newport promoting the benefits of healthy life choices to the general population.  Projects developed in Communities First areas within the ‘Healthier Communities’ theme e.g. the introduction of Fruit and Vegetable Co-ops, community activity sessions etc.  Newport City Council leisure centres working on increasing the numbers of people using their facilities  Newport City Council sport and leisure department utilising market segmentation or social marketing techniques, in order to target particular sections of the population with more effective and specific messages around physical activity.  The national Exercise Referral Scheme working with the clients (16 years plus) classified as sedentary or with a number of associated health risks. The scheme offers low cost prescribed exercise supported by exercise professionals over a set period of time, in order to increase the health and wellbeing of the population.  Going for Gold promoting the benefits of increased physical activity to the general population

Areas of development See Obesity, Physical Activity, Nutrition, Smoking, Alcohol. Other Factors None. Data Development None identified.

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Mental Health

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving SF36 Mental Component Summary Mean Score Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of adults (16+) reporting currently being treated for a mental illness Data Source Welsh Health Survey

Analysis Indicator SF36 Mental Component Summary Mean Score The SF36 score is derived from a number of self-assessed questions within the Welsh Health Survey asking respondents about their mental health and the impact on their lives. A higher score indicates better mental health.

Percentage of adults reporting currently being treated for a mental illness This data is sourced from the Welsh Health Survey. Respondents are asked whether they are being treated for depression, anxiety or any other mental illness.

These indicators are important because mental health and wellbeing can affect a wide range of factors in our lives including forming and sustaining relationships, going to work and school, being able to participate in leisure activities and feeling part of the wider community.

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Data trends SF36 Mental Component Summary Mean Score The overall score for Wales has remained fairly constant over the last 5 years. In 2007 the mean score was 49.9 and this remained at this level for 4 years. A reduction to 49.8 was seen in 2011. For Newport, the score has fluctuated over the 5 years between 49.4 and 49.8, but has remained on average 0.3 below the Wales average. In 2011 the mean score was at 49.5.

Percentage of adults reporting currently being treated for a mental illness In Wales, 9% of adults report being treated for a mental illness and this remained constant from 2007 to 2010. However in 2011 an increase to 11% has been seen.

In Newport, the figures have varied over the last five years and the prevailing trend being a slight increase from 10% to 11%.

What is driving the trend? The health and wellbeing of individuals and communities is influenced by a wide range of social, environmental and economic factors as well as individual genetics, behaviours and experiences. It has been widely established that some health determinants can protect mental health, while some can increase the risk of poor mental health57. For example, protective factors for mental health may include supportive friends and family, good quality housing, feeling safe and part of a community, accessible leisure opportunities and availability of support for major life transitions. Risk factors for poor mental health may include social isolation, unemployment, social or cultural discrimination, lack of accessible services or leisure opportunities and low self-esteem58.

A number of factors could be driving the reduction in the SF36 score and the increase in the percentage of people being treated for a mental illness in Newport. These include:  Deprivation – there are a number of deprived areas in the Newport  Current recession and the reduction in regeneration funding  Environmental factors  Substance misuse including alcohol  Poor diet and lack of physical activity  Urban environment increasing isolation and lack of social networks

Current initiatives A number of partners have developed initiatives including:  Mental Health First Aid (training for front line professionals)  Scheme to get people with a mental health illness back in to work (Job Centre Plus)  Helping people with mental illness into volunteering and work (Hafal and Gofal)  Targeting raising awareness through parenting programmes and networks  SEALs programme (Healthy Schools)  Hospital to Home Scheme to prevent those admitted to hospital losing their accommodation (funded through Supporting People)  Linking Mental Health Network for Newport with other work streams for example Communities First  Befriending for those with dementia (Alzheimer’s Society)  Good Neighbours Scheme for older people (WRVS - volunteer services supporting older people)  Lunch clubs for older people

57 Kazdin and Kagan, 1994 58 National Public Health Service (NPHS), 2008

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 Day centres for older people  Kensington Court day centre  Supported Housing schemes

Areas of development The areas of future development are as follows:  5 Mental health awareness toolkit for minority ethnic communities  Health Promotion programme for mental health service providers to support those recovering from mental illness  Introduction of the Recovery Model at Kensington Court  Integrated health and social care mental health service Other Factors None. Data Development  Office for National Statistics (ONS) wellbeing measure to be released soon  Data split by age groups/gender  Mental health data for children and young people  Localised data

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Immunisation & Vaccinations - Adults

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Percentage uptake of influenza immunisation – aged 65 and over Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage uptake of influenza immunisation – under 65 and at risk Data Source Public Health Wales (Annual COVER Reports)

Analysis Indicator In Wales and the UK, the flu jab is routinely offered free to people considered to be more at risk of developing complications from contracting flu. People eligible for free flue jab are:  are 65 years of age or over;  are pregnant;  are living in a long-stay residential care home or other long-stay care facility (not including prisons, young offender institutions or university halls of residence);  are the main carer for an elderly or disabled person whose welfare may be at risk if you fall ill  are a frontline health or social care worker;  are a member of a recognised voluntary organisation who provides planned emergency first aid at organised public events;  have a serious medical condition (see below).

The seasonal flu vaccine is offered free of charge to anyone who is over six months of age and has one of the following medical conditions:  chronic (long-term) respiratory disease, such as severe asthma, COPD or bronchitis  chronic heart disease, such as heart failure  chronic kidney disease  chronic liver disease  chronic neurological disease, such as stroke, TIA, polio syndrome  diabetes  a weakened immune system due to conditions, such as HIV or AIDs, or treatments that suppress the immune system, such as chemotherapy59

These datasets are:  the percentage of those aged over 65; and  the percentage of those at risk aged under 65; that have taken up the offer of a free influenza vaccine.

59 Public Health Wales

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This data is sourced directly from the General Practice (GP) Audit+ Data Quality System. Influenza or flu is a highly infectious acute viral infection, affecting people of all ages, mainly during the winter months60. Flu remains one of the most serious vaccine preventable diseases in the UK today. The disease itself causes a great burden on an overstretched NHS in winter months and can lead to increased mortality in vulnerable groups.

Data trend Percentage uptake of influenza immunisation – aged 65 and over In Wales, the uptake rate was 63.6% in 2007/8. A decrease to 59.5% was seen in 2008/9. Since that time the rate has increased year on year and stood at 67.7% in 2011/12. In Newport the pattern has been similar but has remained above the Wales average. In 2007/8 the uptake rate was 67.9%, a decrease was seen in 2008/9 to 60.2%. Since that time the uptake rate has increased over the last three years and in 2011/12 stood at 70.9%.

Percentage uptake of influenza immunisation – under 65 and at risk In Wales, the uptake rate was 42.4% in 2007/8, a decrease was seen in 2008/9 to 40.8%. In 2009/10 an increase to 49.1% was seen. Over the next two years the rate remained at about the same level. In 2010/11 the rate was 48.5% and in 2011/12, 50.0%.

In Newport in 2007/8 the rate stood at 45.1%. This decreased slightly to 44.3% in 2008/9, and then increased to 53.2% in 2009/10. A decrease was see again in 2010/11 but a further increase to 55.9% was seen in 2011/12. Throughout the 5 year period the Newport rate has been well above the Wales average.

What is driving the trend? The decrease that was seen in 2008/9 coincides with the removal of funding for the “Keep Well This Winter” campaign so this could be a contributor to the reduction.

An increase have been seen in the last three years due to a number of reasons:  Increase in promotional campaigns;  Investigating and evaluation problems with data recording mechanisms to ensure improved reporting;  Increased coverage in the media due to concerns of pandemic flu;

Current initiatives  Public Health Wales Seasonal flu campaigns  Welsh Government campaigns  The Vaccine Preventable Disease Programme of Public Health Wales was established in July 2003. It draws on support from a variety of existing teams within Public Health Wales and wider NHS Wales to support a national approach. Some of the activities established include development of a Welsh NHS intranet resource to support all professionals who provide or manage immunisation services and Immunisation Conferences.61

Areas of development Continued seasonal campaigns to ensure uptake levels are maintained. Other Factors None Data Development None identified

60 Department of Health, 2006 61 Public Health Wales

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Smoking

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Percentage of adults who report as currently smoking and percentage of non-smoking adults who report regularly exposed to passive smoking Data Set (Population Indicator) indoors Smoking Attributable Mortality (age standardised per 100 000 population) Welsh Health Survey Data Source Tobacco and Health in Wales Report published in June 2012 by Public Health Wales Observatory & Welsh Government

Analysis Indicator Percentage of adult who report currently smoking and percentage of non-smoking adults who report regularly exposed to passive smoking indoors This data is sourced from the Welsh Health Survey. The percentage of non-smoking adults regularly exposed to passive smoking indoors has only been recorded since 2009.

Smoking Attributable Mortality In June 2012 Public Health Wales Observatory and the Welsh Government published the Tobacco and Health in Wales Report. The data used was sourced from Patient Episode Database Wales (PEDW), NHS Wales

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Informatics Service (NWIS); Annual District Deaths Extract, Office for National Statistics (ONS). This data is all Wales residents 35+ (smoking attributable mortality) under 75 (mortality from specific diseases linked to smoking). Smoking attributable diseases are circulatory disease, respiratory disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer.

Smoking is known as the single biggest avoidable cause of disease and early death in the UK. Smoking causes many serious and fatal diseases including lung cancer, heart disease, bronchitis and emphysema. It also causes many other cancers, respiratory diseases, strokes and can affect fertility.

Data trend Percentage of adult who report currently smoking In Wales, there has been a steady decline in the number of adult smokers between 2007 and 2011 from 25% to 23%. There has also been an overall decline in Newport but this has not been steady with an increase seen in 2009. The overall reduction has only been from 25% to 24% and is now 1% above the Wales average.

Percentage of non-smoking adults who report regularly exposed to passive smoking indoors The Wales average has reduced from 22% in 2009 to 21% in 2011. In Newport, the figure has fluctuated from 23% to 25% over the last three years and currently stands at 23%.

Smoking Attributable Mortality In Wales the number of deaths attributed to smoking has dropped year on year from 251 per 100 000 (in 2004-6) to 227 per 100 000 (in 2008-10) a total decrease of 24. In Newport, however the rate was slightly above the Wales figure at 253 per 100 000 (in 2004-6) and decreased at a slower rate to 250 per 100 000 (in 2005-7), then 247 per 100 000 (in 2006-8). An increase was seen to 252 per 100 000 (in 2007-9) then a decrease to 244 per 100 000 (in 2008-10). The gap between the Wales average and the Newport average has increased from 2 to 17 per 100 000 over the period.

What is driving the trend? The reduction in smoking has been driven mainly by the smoking ban. A ban on selling cigarettes directly from vending machines came into force in Wales in February 2012. The Welsh Government imposed the ban after it emerged 10% of regular smokers aged 11-15 in the UK said they bought cigarettes from the machines regularly.

Current initiatives The smoking ban came into force in 2006, which in turn has led to a cultural change regarding attitudes to smoking.  Smoking cessation services  Annual national and local No Smoking Day campaigns.  An increase in local Brief Intervention Training for professionals working with the general public.  An increase in prevention work with schools resulting in a reduction of children who become smokers as adults (e.g. Smokebugs, ASSIST).

Areas of development In December 2012 cigarettes and tobacco products were removed from view in large shops and supermarkets. Smaller shops must comply by April 2015. The effects of this are yet to be seen.

Smoke Free Gwent/Newport (drive the tobacco agenda locally via key partners).

Continued implementation of tobacco standards (e.g. removal of tobacco vending machines).

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Other Factors Admission rates and mortality rates of respiratory disease, which can be linked to population tobacco use. Data Development It would be useful to have a breakdown of data to include: Sex, Age, Ethnicity, continued passive smoking, use of niche products including, chewing tobacco, khat, etc.

Data regarding young people to assess if they are becoming smokers, or if smokers are starting to smoke as adults (see above).

Data at a localised level.

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Smoking in Pregnancy

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Smoking rates during pregnancy Percentage who smoked before and during pregnancy Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage who smoked throughout pregnancy Percentage who gave up before or during pregnancy Data Source Infant Feeding Survey (NHS Information Centre)

Analysis Indicator This data is sourced from the Infant Feeding Survey that is published every 5 years by the NHS Information Centre for Health and Social Care, and shows the percentage of women who smoked before and during pregnancy, smoked throughout pregnancy or gave up before or during pregnancy.

Pregnant mothers who smoke during and after pregnancy are exposing their child to second-hand smoke which can lead to adverse affects on the child’s health as well as potential birth defects. Studies have indicated that the use of tobacco is a significant factor in miscarriages amongst pregnant smokers as well as contributing to other types of ill health threats and sudden infant death.

Smoking in pregnancy is associated with a number of serious consequences for the health of the child, including low birth weight, premature birth and perinatal death. In addition, growing up in a household exposed to cigarette smoke impacts on the health and wellbeing of a child, in infancy and beyond. Children exposed to tobacco smoke in the womb are more likely to experience respiratory illnesses in childhood62. It has also been suggested that smoking during pregnancy may have a detrimental effect on a child’s educational performance63.

62 Button TMM, Maughan B, McGuffin P. (2007) The relationship of maternal smoking to psychological problems in the offspring. Early Human Development 83 (11): 727–32 63 Batstra L, Hadders-Algra M, Neeleman J (2003) Effect of antenatal exposure to maternal smoking on behavioural problems and academic achievement in childhood. Early Human Development 75: 21–33

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Data trend Data on smoking during pregnancy is currently only available at a national level for Wales which was collected during 2005 and 2010. The data shows that there has been a 4% drop in the percentage of women smoking before and during pregnancy from 37% in 2005 to 33% in 2010. A more significant change was seen in the percentage of women smoking during pregnancy, this declined by 6% from 22% in 2005 to 16% in 2010. These changes are mirrored by the increased number of women that give up smoking either before or during their pregnancy. The percentage of women giving up smoking before or during pregnancy increased by 9% from 41% in 2005 to 50% in 2010. Although, the percentage of women that give up smoking before or during pregnancy has increased data shows that a third of mothers had smoked before or during pregnancy.

What is driving the trend? Smoking in pregnancy is strongly associated with poverty, low levels of education, poor social support, depression and psychological illness64. Tobacco smoking is associated with low socioeconomic status and has been cited as one of the principal causes of health inequality between well-off and deprived people65.

The reduction in smoking amongst pregnant women both before and during pregnancy may be the result of the introduction of the smoking ban in 2007 which has restricted smoking in public places and as a result smoking is gradually becoming less socially acceptable. Pregnant mothers may choose to give up smoking before or during pregnancy due to greater awareness of the health risks for the unborn child. These risks are highlighted to smoking mothers by health visitors and at antenatal clinics, etc.

Current initiatives A Maternity Smoking Cessation Programme is currently underway in Newport, which not only considers the smoking behaviour of the pregnant mother, but the family as a whole. This programme is aimed at pregnant women in socially deprived areas. Intensive smoking cessation support is offered to women and their families throughout pregnancy and the postnatal period

There is also a range of work being carried out in Newport to address lifestyle factors that can influence the general population, such as the promotion of Stop Smoking Wales in workplaces which may also impact on the smoking status of pregnant women.

Areas of development Smoking is a key priority identified in the Single Integrated Plan. A number of projects have been identified to work on over the next few years to reduce smoking in Newport. Key to this is partnership working across organisations. Other Factors This indicator is proxy for low birth weight baby data. Data Development Additional data on smoking during pregnancy at local authority level is required. It is anticipated a series of more localised data will be collected by the smoking cessation programme to provide more data on women smoking before, during and after pregnancy to measure the impact and effectiveness of the smoking cessation intervention work.

64 Lumley, J., Chamberlain, C., Dowswell, T., Oliver, S., Oakley, L., Watson, L. (2009). Interventions for promoting smoking cessation during pregnancy (Review). The Cochrane Collaboration, Issue 3. 65 Wanless, D. (2004) Securing Good Health for the Whole Population, Department of Health.

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Nutrition

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Percentage of adults who report meeting fruit and vegetable consumption guidelines Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of children and young people (aged 4-15) who eat fruit and vegetables daily (Wales data only) Data Source Welsh Health Survey

Analysis Indicator The data is sourced from the Welsh Health Survey.

Adults who meet fruit and vegetable consumption guidelines Respondents are asked a number of questions to ascertain how much fruit and vegetables they ate the previous day. From this the number of adults who meet consumption guidelines is calculated.

Children and Young People who eat fruit and vegetables in a daily basis The survey asked how many times a week children aged 4-15 usually ate fruit and vegetables.

These indicators are important because the consumption of fruit and vegetables as part of a balanced diet, has the potential to have a significant positive impact on health. There are numerous protective factors attributed to eating 5 portions of fruit and vegetables a day, including a reduced risk of developing certain

144 cancers and a reduced risk of developing heart disease (dependent on other factors).

A healthy, balanced diet and regular physical activity are the best ways to maintain a healthy weight, and are key lifestyle choices to make in order to avoid becoming overweight or obese. With the increasing amount of people being diagnosed as obese or overweight in what has been described as an obesity epidemic, fruit and vegetables are a vital healthy food group to include as a daily staple of one’s diet, as opposed to sugary and fatty foods which are known to lead to weight gain, and have the potential to cause further health problems.

People who develop healthy eating habits early in life are more likely to maintain them in adulthood and have reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, type 2 diabetes and osteoporosis66. This is why fruit and vegetable consumption from an early age is vital for the future health and wellbeing of the population.

Data trend Adults who meet fruit and vegetable consumption guidelines In 2007, across Wales 44% of adults reported eating 5 portions of fruit and vegetables a day. Since then the percentage has dropped year on year. Last year, 2011 recorded just 34%. A similar trend has been seen in Newport. Starting at 42% in 2007 and reducing to 32% in 2011. This is on average 2% below the Wales average.

Children and Young People who eat fruit and vegetables in a daily basis In 2007, 57% of boys and 63% of girls (4-15 year olds) reported eating fruit on a daily basis. Since 2007 these percentages have fluctuated slightly but remain at a similar level, with 58% of boys and 63% of girls in 2011 reporting as eating fruit in a daily basis.

In 2007, 48% of boys and 51% of girls (4-15 year olds) reported eating vegetables on a daily basis. Since 2007 these percentages have fluctuated slightly but a slight increase has been seen overall with, 52% of boys and 55% of girls in 2011 reporting as eating fruit in a daily basis.

What is driving the trend? A combination of a number of complex factors may be responsible for the decrease of fruit and vegetable consumption in Newport in recent years. The following factors have been known to affect the consumption of fruit and vegetables:  Availability of fresh and good value fruit and vegetables.  Affordability of fresh fruit and vegetables in comparison with less healthy foods.  Social factors including social and cultural desirability of eating fruit and vegetables.  Familiarity and habit of not eating fruit and vegetables.  Personal ideology including individual’s importance placed on fruit and vegetable consumption.  Lack of knowledge of health benefits associated with fruit and vegetable consumption.  Obesegenic environment and the appeal of affordable takeaways and fast food outlets in the city.  Role of media and advertising of takeaways and fast food outlets67.

Current initiatives A number of partners have developed initiatives aimed at increasing healthy eating including:  Projects developed in Communities First areas within the ‘Healthier Communities’ theme e.g. the introduction of Fruit and Vegetable Co-ops.  Local authority leisure centres working on increasing the healthy food options available within their

(Mendelson & White, 1982: Welsh Health Organisation (WHO), 2004) 66 67 J. Pollard*, S. F. L. Kirk and J. E. Cade (2002). Factors affecting food choice in relation to fruit and vegetable intake: a review. Nutrition Epidemiology Group, Nuffield Institute for Health, University of Leeds, 71–75 Clarendon Road, Leeds LS2 9PL, UK.

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cafés.  Health Challenge Newport promoting the benefits of healthy eating to the general population.  Fruit and Vegetable co-ops in Newport City Council workplaces.

Areas of development Areas of future development include:  Improved partnership working with key stakeholders, to ensure that the commitment to improving levels of fruit and vegetable consumption is embedded into local policies and plans (e.g. Healthy Newport partnership).  Work towards creating a culture change within organisations in Newport utilising the Corporate Health Standard, to engage with individuals to make informed, responsible choices for their own food consumption.  Target national campaigns (e.g. Change 4 Life) more effectively in an attempt to make individuals and organisations more likely to adopt healthy eating messages and engage in increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Other Factors None. Data Development There are a number of possible improvements that could be made in the data collection of fruit and vegetable consumption that could provide more of an insight and enhance the understanding of the fruit and vegetable consumption of people in Newport:  A larger sample size and more robust data  A breakdown of data based on age groups; gender; ethnicity, etc  Data on other eating behaviours  More localised data

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Physical Activity

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Percentage of adults who meet physical activity guidelines Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of children and young people (aged 4 – 15 years old) who meet the physical activity guidelines (Wales level data only) Data Source Welsh Health Survey

Analysis Indicator The data is sourced from the Welsh Health Survey. Respondents are asked how often and for how long in the last 7 days they have taken part in light, moderate or vigorous exercise/physical activity. These indicators are important because regular physical activity can make an important contribution to improving quality of life for adults i.e. both physical and psychological68. Physical activity is a vital component in maintaining a healthy body weight and along with eating a healthy balanced diet, is the most effective way of avoiding becoming overweight or obese. Physical inactivity also known as sedentary behaviour is in itself a risk factor for numerous conditions such as high blood pressure and can contribute significantly to illnesses such as, heart disease, stroke, diabetes and some cancers69. Physical activity is also a very important factor in maintaining muscle and bone strength during adulthood; this is an important element of ageing healthily and reducing the risk of falls in old age.

World Health Organisation, 200468 69 Department of Health, 1993

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Data trend Adults who meet physical activity guidelines Between 2007 and 2008 in Wales, 30% of adults reported meeting the physical activity guidelines. This decreased slightly in 2009 to 29% and then increased again to 30% in 2010 and remained at 30% in 2011.

In Newport in 2007 the rate was 28% and remained at 28% in 2008. In 2009 the rate decreased to 26% but has increased since then to 27% in 2010 and 28% in 2011, which is still 2% below the Wales average.

Children and Young People (aged 4-15 years old) who meet physical activity guidelines (Wales data only) In 2007 in Wales 55% of children and young people aged 4-15 years old reported meeting the physical activity guidelines. This decreased to 53% in 2008 and increased to 54% in 2009. A decrease to 52% was seen in 2010 and again in 2011 to 51%. Overall the trend shows a decrease of 4%. Unfortunately data at a Newport level is not available.

What is driving the trend? A number of factors are known to contribute to the level and frequency of physical activity of adults70, many of which may be specific to Newport:  Environment we live in - with a large proportion of the population of Newport living in an urban area, there is little opportunity for people to engage in active recreation in safe, outdoor environments. This is coupled with a lack of interconnecting cycle lanes/routes in the city, which significantly reduces the opportunity for residents of Newport to travel actively around the city and its neighbouring areas.  Personal ideology - the perception of what it means to be physically active. Some research has suggested that people perceive sport as the only form of being physically active.  Personal knowledge of the importance of physical activity.  Time restraints - a lack of time is often a reason given by working aged adults and adults with families in particular.  Financial restraints - similarly, a lack of finances to spend on exercise activities is often a reason given for lack of physical activity.  Lack of knowledge of health benefits associated with physical activity.  Social and cultural values placed on the importance of physical activity.

Current initiatives A number of partners have developed initiatives aimed at increasing the levels of physical activity including:  Communities First and its projects developed within the ‘Healthier Communities’ theme e.g. the introduction of community activity sessions, etc.  NCC leisure centres working on increasing the numbers of people using their facilities.  NCC sport and leisure department utilising market segmentation or social marketing techniques, in order to target particular sections of the population with more effective and specific messages around physical activity.  The national Exercise Referral Scheme working with the clients (16+) classified as sedentary or with a number of associated health risks. The scheme offers low cost prescribed exercise supported by exercise professionals over a set period of time, in order to increase the health and wellbeing of the population.  Health Challenge Newport promoting the benefits of increased physical activity to the general population.

70 Carnegie Research Institute, Leeds Met University (2007). The National Evaluation of LEAP: Final Report on the National Evaluation of the Local Exercise Action Pilots. Prepared for the Department of Health, Countryside Agency and Sport England. Decloe, M.D., Kaczynski, A.T., Havitz, M.E. cited in National Recreation and Park Association (2009). Social participation, flow and situational involvement in recreational physical activity. Haughton McNeill, L., Kreuter, M.W. and Subramanian, S.V. (2006). Social Environment and Physical activity: A review of concepts and evidence.

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Areas of development The areas of future development are as follows:  Improved partnership working with key stakeholders, to ensure that the commitment to reducing levels of obesity is embedded into local policies and plans  Work towards creating a culture change within organisations in Newport utilising the Corporate Health Standard, to engage with individuals to make informed, responsible choices for their own health and wellbeing and levels of physical activity  Target national campaigns (e.g. Change 4 Life) more effectively in an attempt to make individuals and organisations more likely to adopt healthy living messages Other Factors None. Data Development There are a number of possible gaps in data that could enhance the understanding of the effect physical activity has on people’s lives, which are as follows:  Have a larger sample size and more robust data  Collecting more of a breakdown based on age groups and gender  Collect data on the level and type of physical activity undertaken  Increasing the data for children and young people  Utilise the new school sports survey  More localised data

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Overweight or Obese

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Families First Outcome Children, young people and families are healthy and enjoy wellbeing Communities First Outcome Healthier communities Percentage of adults (16+) reporting as obese Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of adults (16+) reporting as overweight or obese Percentage of children aged 4-5 years who are overweight or obese Welsh Health Survey Data Source Public Health Wales - Child Measurement Programme

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Analysis Indicator Adults reporting as overweight or obese This data is sourced from the Welsh Health Survey. Respondents are asked their height and weight and from these details a Body Mass Index (BMI) is calculated for each respondent. Those with a BMI of 30 or more are classed as obese. Those with a BMI of 25 or more are classed as overweight or obese.

Children aged 4-5 years who are overweight or obese The Child Measurement Programme was implemented in reception year across Wales for the first time during the 2011/12 academic year. As the programme was under development during this period, this first year is regarded as a transitional year. Prevalence rates were calculated using the age and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) centiles calculated using the British 1990 growth reference (UK90) (from a method proposed by Cole et al (1995)). The body mass index (BMI) was calculated using a method proposed by Keys et al (1972).71

Obesity can lead to a number of serious and potentially life-threatening diseases such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke and some types of cancer. In addition, obesity can affect your quality of life and can often trigger depression.

If obesity rates are not reduced, the costs of treating these illnesses will be a considerable burden to the NHS and will lead to an increased demand on a variety of Health and Social care services, which will be difficult to meet.

Obesity rates have tripled in the UK since the 1980s. In Wales, as in many other countries, the proportion of adults and children who are not maintaining a healthy body weight is increasing. The UK Government Office for Science’s Foresight report has predicted that by 2050, 9 out of 10 adults and two-thirds of children in the UK will be overweight or obese.

Data trend Adults reporting as obese In Wales the percentage of adults reporting as being obese has increased from 20% to 22% from 2007 to 2011. Newport however in 2007 the percentage was 22% and increased to 23% in 2008, but returned to 22% in 2010 where it has remained in 2011, the same as the Wales average. Overall the rate in Newport has remained the same and the Wales average has increased by 2% to meet the Newport average.

Adults reporting as overweight or obese From 2007 to 2008 the percentage of adults in Wales reporting as being overweight or obese increased from 56% to 57%. Since 2008 (the last 4 years) the rate has remained at 57%. In Newport however the rate has fluctuated between 58% and 60% but has remained above the Wales average and in 2011 was at 60%, 3% above the Wales average.

Children aged 4-5 years who are overweight or obese In Newport 14% of boys are obese which is above the Wales average of 13%. However 15% are overweight which is below the Wales average of 16.3%.

For girls in Newport 10.8% are obese which is below the Wales average of 12.1%, but 15.6% are overweight which is above the Wales average of 15%.

71 The Child Measurement Programme for Wales

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What is driving the trend? The Foresight report72 referred to a “complex web of societal and biological factors that have, in recent decades, exposed our inherent human vulnerability to weight gain.”  Biology - an individual’s starting point; the influence of genetics and ill health  Activity environment - the influence of the environment on an individual’s activity behaviour, for example a decision to cycle to work may be influenced by road safety, air pollution or provision of a cycle shelter and showers  Physical activity - the type, frequency and intensity of activities an individual carries out, such as cycling vigorously to work every day (see Physical Activity)  Societal influences - the impact of society, for example the influence of peer pressure or culture, the media and education  Individual psychology - for example a person’s individual psychological drive for particular foods and consumption patterns, or physical activity patterns or preferences  Food environment - the influence of the food environment on an individual’s food choices, for example a decision to eat more fruit and vegetables may be influenced by the availability and quality of fruit and vegetables near home  Food consumption - the quality, quantity (portion sizes) and frequency (snacking patterns) of an individual’s diet (see Nutrition)  Increase in alcohol consumption (see Alcohol Misuse) and its association with higher calorie intake

Current initiatives A number of partners have developed initiatives aimed at reducing the levels of obesity including:  Communities First and its projects developed within the ‘Healthier Communities’ theme for example, the introduction of Fruit and Vegetable Co-ops and community activity sessions  Local authority leisure centres working on increasing the numbers of people using their facilities and increasing the healthy food options available within their cafés  Newport City Council (NCC) Sport and Leisure department using market segmentation or social marketing to target particular sections of the population so that the messages displayed are more specific and effective at attracting them to use the services on offer  The National Exercise Referral Scheme (under “Health Challenge Newport”) working with the clients (16+) classified as sedentary or with a number of associated health risks. The scheme offers low cost prescribed exercise supported by exercise professionals over a set period of time, in an attempt to improve the health and wellbeing of people referred to the scheme  Health Challenge Newport promoting the benefits of healthy eating and increased physical activity to the general population  Healthy Schools Scheme  National campaigns, including Change 4 Life and food labelling  Corporate health standard

Areas of development Areas of future development include:  Improved partnership working with key stakeholders, to ensure that the commitment to reducing levels of obesity is embedded into local policies and plans  Work towards creating a culture change within organisations utilising the Corporate Health Standard, to engage with individuals to make informed, responsible choices for their own health and wellbeing  Target national campaigns (e.g. Change 4 Life) more effectively in an attempt to make individuals and organisations more likely to adopt healthy living messages

2 NHS Choices

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Other Factors None Data Development There are a number of gaps in data that could enhance the understanding of the potential effect of obesity on the population of Newport, which are as follows:  A more accurate understanding of the prevalence of obesity – a move from self-reporting methods to a more systematic process  Improving the methods of data collection for children and young people. Trend data from the “Child Measurement Programme” in future years will assist in this area.  A breakdown of data based on age specific groups  Baby weight data (from GP’s and health databases – Quality Outcomes Framework)  Utilisation of the new school sports survey as a potential indicator of physical activity levels  Specific data on age and gender  More localised data

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Alcohol Consumption

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Percentage of adults who report drinking above the recommended guidelines Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of adults who report binge drink Alcohol related mortality Welsh Health Survey Data Source Health Map Wales

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Analysis Indicator Percentage of adults who report drinking above the recommended guidelines and the percentage of adults who report binge drinking These two sets of data are sourced from the Welsh Health Survey. Respondents are asked a number of questions about how often they drink and how much they drink.

Alcohol Related Mortality This dataset is age standardised per 100 000 population. ‘Alcohol-related’ deaths follow the Office for National Statistics (ONS) definition of alcohol-related deaths (which includes causes regarded as most directly due to alcohol consumption).

Alcohol consumption above recommended limits can lead to a range of conditions such as liver disease, reduced fertility, high blood pressure, increased risk of various cancers and cardiovascular diseases73. Too much alcohol can also cause chronic inflammation of the pancreas which can impair its ability to secrete insulin and ultimately lead to diabetes74.

Data trend Percentage of adults who report drinking above the recommended guidelines The percentage of adults who report drinking above the recommended guidelines has increased in both Wales and Newport over the last 5 years. In 2007, 36% of adults in Wales reported drinking above the guidelines. This then increased to 45% in 2008 and decreased in 2010 to 44% where it remained in 2011.

In Newport in 2007, 35% reported drinking above the recommended guidelines. This increased to 45% in 2008 and the 47% in 2009. However, since then a decrease has been seen to 45% in 2010 and 42% in 2011 dropping below the Wales average for the first time in 4 years.

Percentage of adults who report binge drinking The percentage of adults who reported binge drinking in Wales in 2007 was 19%. This increased to 28% in 2008 then decreased to 27% in 2010 were it remained in 2011.

In Newport in 2007, 19% reported binge drinking and increased to 29% in 2008. In 2010 a reduction to 27% was seen then a further reduction to 25% in 2011 which is below the Wales average for this first time in the last five years.

Alcohol related mortality The number of deaths per 100,000 population related to alcohol in Wales in 2007 was 14.41. This increased to 16.05 in 2008 then decreased to 14.37 in 2009. In 2010 a slight increase to 14.45 was seen which then decreased to 13.34 in 2011. Overall a decrease of approximately 1 per 100,000 has been seen.

In Newport however the death rate per 100,000 has fluctuated. In 2007 the rate was 15.38 dropping to 11.45 in 2008. This then increased to 15.76 in 2009, and then decreased to 12.95 in 2010. In 2011 the rate increased again to 16.48 which is above the Wales average. Overall an increase of approximately 1 per 100,000 has been seen over the 5 years.

73 NHS Choices 74 American Diabetes Association

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What is driving the trend? The increases in alcohol consumption in recent years are in Newport are being driven by a number of factors: including:  Cost - lower unit price for alcohol. e.g. supermarket drink promotions encourage drinking, happy hours in pubs  Size of glasses  Increased licensing hours for some establishments  Increase of people drinking at home with the closure of many local pubs  Increased availability / access to alcohol  Increases due to high levels of unemployment and areas of deprivation  Changes in culture, with the acceptability of drinking increased especially for women  Size of individual premises as larger venues could increase social drinking  Increase in acceptability of binge drinking e.g. stag/hen/birthday parties  Street drinkers  Glamourising of alcohol on TV and in films  Harmful effects of alcohol are not reported in the media in the same way as other drugs  Hospital being located in Newport could possibly increase hospital admissions

Current initiatives A number of partners have developed initiatives aimed at reducing the levels of alcohol misuse including:  Campaigns such as ‘Know Your Limits’.  Awareness raising adults and young people  Work with licensing of premises  City centre policing  Enforcement  Parent Guide to Drugs and Alcohol

Areas of development The areas of future development include:  Completion of the detailed substance misuse needs assessment  Awareness raising across all age groups  Times premises are able to sell alcohol (licensing hours)  Initiatives around promoting soft drinks for designated drivers or soft drinks and water between drinking  Reduction in glass sizes in pubs  Increase in school based alcohol awareness interventions  Under age selling of alcohol may still be an issue  Screening for harmful drinking and then brief interventions in response  Work with supermarkets and licensed premises  Work with the local University Other Factors None. Data Development Data for children and young people.

Data split into age groups and gender for adults.

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Limiting Long Term Illness

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Communities First Outcome Healthier communities Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of adults reporting long term limiting illness Data Source Welsh Health Survey

Analysis Indicator This data is sourced from the Welsh Health Survey and is self reporting. Respondents were asked if they have 'any long term illness, health problem or disability' which limits their daily activities or the work they can do. Adults were asked to include problems due to old age.

Data trend The Wales average is stable with 27% of the population reporting a long term limiting illness between 2004/6 and 2009/10. However, the trend in Newport has fluctuated since 2004/06 but has slightly increased overall from 27% to 28% in 2009/10, above the Wales average.

What is driving the trend? Refer to analysis for specific conditions (respiratory illness, cancer, diabetes).

Initiatives Education for Patients Programme - chronic disease self management programme (an NHS initiative that was launched in 2002 to help patients with chronic conditions to take control of their lives).

Areas of development Refer to analysis on specific conditions. (respiratory illness, cancer, diabetes). Other Factors Refer to analysis on specific conditions. (respiratory illness, cancer, diabetes). Data Development None identified.

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Life Expectancy

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Communities First Outcome Healthier communities Comparison of life expectancy, healthy life expectancy and disability-free Data Set (Population Indicator) life expectancy at birth in Newport Data Source Public Health Wales Observatory

Analysis Indicator Life expectancy at birth is a widely used statistical measure of the average expected years of life for a new- born based on currently observed mortality rates. As such, life expectancy at birth is also a measure of mortality across all ages. In addition to life expectancy it is important to consider quality of life. Two such measures are presented here. Healthy life expectancy at birth (HLE) represents the number of years a person can expect to live in good health. Similarly, disability-free life expectancy at birth (DFLE) estimates the number of years of life expected to be free from a limiting long-term illness or disability. HLE and DFLE incorporate survey data on health and limiting long term illness or disability in Wales and hence their estimation may be affected by any survey sampling error75.

The Slope Index of Inequality (SII) measures the absolute gap in years of life expectancy between the most and least deprived, taking into account the pattern across all fifths of deprivation within the local authority area76.

Data trend Life expectancy in Newport, as in Wales in general, is increasing. The current life expectancy for men is 76.8 years and 81.4 years for women. However, this improvement is not experienced equally across all areas. There are in many cases substantial national and local inequality gaps between the most and least deprived areas in both life expectancy and deaths from different causes. There are also inequalities in the quality of life in terms of healthy life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy.

Males In Newport, the gap in life expectancy for males between the least deprived and the most deprived areas has increased from 9.5 years to 11 years; this is higher than the Wales average which has increased from 8.6

75 Measuring Inequalities, Trends in Mortality and life expectancy in Wales -Public Health Wales Observatory 76 Measuring inequalities, Trends in mortality and life expectancy in Newport - Public Health Wales Observatory

158 years to 9.2 years. For healthy life expectancy the gap is even greater and has increased from 20.1 years to 21 years, and is well above the Wales average which has increased from 18.4 years to 18.9 years. For disability-free life expectancy the gap has increased from 12.7 years to 13.4 years but is still lower than the Wales average which has increased from 14.6 years to 14.8 years.

Females In Newport, the gap in life expectancy for females has increased from 5.8 years to 6.5 years, this is lower than the Wales average which has increased from 6.5 years to 7.1 years. For healthy life expectancy the gap is greater and has increased from 19 years to 19.7 years, which is higher than the Wales average which increased from 17.4 years to 17.8 years. For disability-free life expectancy the gap has increased from 14.1 years to 14.7 years higher than the Wales average which has increased from 12.3 years to 12.5 years.

What is driving the trend? Lifestyle is an important factor in health outcomes. Mortality due to alcohol and smoking show the greatest inequalities. The rates for smoking-attributable mortality in most deprived areas of Wales are more than twice those in the least deprived areas, and this inequality gap in mortality due to smoking has slightly risen over time. The largest national inequality gaps of all causes shown are in alcohol related mortality with rates three and a half times as high for males in the most deprived areas as in the least deprived areas77.

Current initiatives Communities First is a community focused anti-poverty programme where Welsh Government funding allows local people to decide what is needed and are helped to make it happen. The programme focuses on the 10% least deprived areas in Wales and focuses on ensuring that the most vulnerable individuals, families and groups in those communities are supported. There are four cluster areas in Newport which cover the most deprived areas of Newport. Communities’ First aims to get local people involved in improving their areas and their own prospects.

Families First emphasises prevention and early intervention for families, particularly those living in poverty. It works alongside the support offered by our other programmes. In Newport 6 strategic projects to support families have been commissioned to a value of £2.65 million. The 6 projects are:  Preventative  Children & Young People skills  Family Skills  Family Health & Wellbeing  Confidence & Nurturing  Disability

In Newport a “Neighbourhood working” project is underway in Lliswerry, Alway and Ringland. Neighbourhood working is the process for improving and joining up local services, whilst focusing on specific neighbourhoods and being more responsive to needs. This involves neighbourhood management partnerships of local residents, together with key agencies and service providers. These partnerships use community information and data to improve services and tackle “quality of life” issues in communities by working to narrow the gap between the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods and the rest of society.

Areas of development Roll out of Neighbourhood Working across all deprived areas of Newport. Other Factors None.

77 Measuring Inequalities, Trends in Mortality and life expectancy in Wales -Public Health Wales Observatory

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Data Development Analysis of specific disease data e.g. respiratory disease, circulatory disease or lifestyle data and comparing least deprived areas with most deprived areas.

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Homelessness

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Families First Outcome Families are confident, nurturing, resilient and safe Number of households accepted as eligible, unintentionally Data Set (Population Indicator) homeless and in priority need Data Source Stats Wales - Homelessness

Analysis Indicator This indicator is based on Welsh local authorities' actions under the homelessness provisions of the Housing Act 1996. This covers the decision as to whether or not there is an obligation under the Act for the local authority to help the household. That is whether the authority accepts that the household is "eligible, unintentionally homeless and falls within a priority need group". In this case the household is accepted as statutory homeless.

The information is based on a quarterly statistical return completed by local authorities in Wales. The Welsh Government introduced secondary legislation (starting from 1 March 2001) extending the priority need categories.

Data trend The number of households with dependent children accepted as eligible, unintentionally homeless and in priority need in 2007/8 was 225. This decreased slightly to 220 in 2008/9 and then 145 in 2009/10. In the last two years the number has increased again to 185 in 2010/11 and 220 in 2011/12.

The number of households without dependent children has also varied over the last five years. In 2007/8 the number was 335, this decreased to 260 in 2008/9 then increased to 310 in 2009/10. A slight increase to 320 was seen in 2010/11 then a decrease to 285 in 2011/12.

What is driving the trend? In Newport during 2011-12 for households with dependent children reasons cited for homelessness were:  Parent no longer willing or able to accommodate 27.1%  Other relatives of friends no longer willing or able to accommodate 12.5%  Breakdown of relationship with partner 20.8%  Mortgage arrears (repossession or other loss of home) 4.2%  Rent arrears 2.1%

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 Loss of rented or tiered accommodation 25%  In institution or care (e.g. hospital, residential home, army, prison etc) 8.3%

For all other households the reasons cited for homelessness were:  Parent no longer willing or able to accommodate 28%  Other relatives of friends no longer willing or able to accommodate 8%  Breakdown of relationship with partner 20%  Violence and harassment 4%  Loss of rented or tiered accommodation 12%  In institution or care (e.g. hospital, residential home, army, prison etc) 28%

Current initiatives The shift in policy focus in terms of defining statutory homeless has meant there has been a greater emphasis placed on prevention of homelessness. At an early stage the housing officers work with a client who is at risk of homelessness, and target advice and support to prevent them from losing their accommodation. Homelessness, as a housing need, is in most cases symptomatic of other needs that place pressure on individuals’ ability to maintain their homes/tenancies. For example, mental health issues, financial difficulties, substance abuse, age, or learning difficulties can and do contribute to housing issues. Preventing homelessness is often reliant on finding appropriate support for these issues before they result in potential homelessness. Such support may include offering access to mediation services and signposting to relevant agencies where additional support has been identified i.e. debt advice/support, mental health support, substance misuse agencies, etc. A number of supported housing schemes for single homeless people and families also contribute to homeless prevention.

Prevention work has also taken the form of access to schemes that assist with rent and securing tenancies. In 2006, a Bond Guarantee Scheme (delivered by Newport City Council Housing Services) was introduced to issue bond guarantees to clients (who fit within the statutory homeless priority group) as one of a package of prevention measures to support clients who are at risk of homelessness. This scheme also provides rent advances and any administrative fees to help clients to set up and secure tenancies.

Prevention work with private landlords is currently being undertaken and close working relationships have been established with registered social landlords which is contributing to the prevention of homelessness. Such arrangements include the Melin Leasing Scheme that lease properties (owned by private landlords) to potentially homeless families (only applies for non-workers in receipt of housing benefits). The Charter Options Scheme acts as a letting agent on behalf of private landlords. Newport City Council’s Housing Needs Service may arrange a bond to assist some clients (where applicable) to secure a tenancy. A different bond scheme called Right Move delivered by Solas is aimed at people that are outside of the priority need group but are at risk of homelessness through the provision of bonds to help clients set up secure tenancies. This scheme began in Newport and is now operating across Caerphilly, Torfaen and Monmouthshire.

Areas of development Areas of development for the future continue to focus on the expansion of prevention-based interventions or initiatives.

Welfare Reform may have an impact on the number of homeless over the coming years. This needs to be monitored and appropriate interventions put in place to provide support when needed. Other Factors Number of families in temporary accommodation and links to other data sets reported as part of quarterly

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WHO12 Homelessness Returns to the Welsh Government Data Development None identified.

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Temporary Accommodation

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Families First Outcome Families are confident, nurturing, resilient and safe Number of homeless households living in temporary accommodation at the end of the period Data Set (Population Indicator) Number of homeless households with dependent children in temporary accommodation at the end of the period Data Source Stats Wales - Temporary Accommodation

Information is also collected about statutory homeless households that are in temporary accommodation; sometimes referred to as "households in accommodation arranged by authorities under homelessness legislation". Temporary means that they have not been found suitable accommodation in a settled home. In other words the accommodation can still be in a self-contained dwelling (for example with a private landlord, or in registered social landlord or local authority owned properties) as well as in non-self- contained accommodation (for example hostels, refuges and bed and breakfast).

Data trend The number of homeless households with dependent children in temporary accommodation at the end of the period in 2007/8 was 55. This increased to 110 at the end of 2008/9, then remained stable at 110 in 2009/10 and 2010/11. A further increase to 135 was seen at the end of 2011/12. Overall over the last five years the number of homeless households with dependent children in temporary accommodation has more than doubled.

The number of households without dependent children in temporary accommodation at the end of 2007/8 was 60. This increased to 75 at the end of 2008/9, then increased again at the end of 2009/10 to 150. In 2010/11 a decrease to 90 was seen then in 2011/12 an increase to 135. Overall an marked increase of

164 more than double the number of households.

What is driving the trend? There was a significant rise in the number of families living in temporary accommodation. After 2006 changes in Welsh Government policy, saw fewer families placed in bed and breakfast accommodation. In Newport, bed and breakfast accommodation was instead replaced by a Private Landlord Scheme to accommodate families in private landlord properties. These properties tend to be of a high quality, which placed less emphasis on families wanting to move on to find permanent housing. This has been compounded by the stock transfer during 2009, which impacted on the availability of properties. The demand for limited Registered Social Landlord (RSL) controlled properties has meant more families are spending longer periods of time living in temporary accommodation.

Areas of development This data evidences the need for there to be more focus on identifying innovative solutions to permanent housing through greater partnership working with the RSLs and Private Sector Housing Landlords. Other factors This data set links to a number of other WHO12 homelessness housing data sets including: • Data on acceptances by priority need and reason for loss of accommodation • Data on length of time spent in temporary accommodation Data Development None identified.

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Affordable Housing

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Data Set (Population Indicator) Number of new affordable housing units provided Data Source Stats Wales - Affordable Housing

Analysis Indicator This measure is the number of new affordable housing units provided in the city. Housing is at the heart of communities. Sufficient good quality affordable housing drives demand for local shops, services and facilities. Investing in housing doesn’t just improve peoples’ homes but it benefits their health, wellbeing and quality of life. Money spent in providing new homes also contributes to national and local economies, creates employment and regenerates communities.

Data trend Despite a challenging economic climate, Newport continues to deliver a significant number of new affordable housing units.

What is driving the trend? There have also been significant reductions to the amount of grant available from the Welsh Government to fund affordable housing developments, which has had an impact on the number of housing units provided in recent years.

Current initiatives & Areas of development Newport City Council will continue to work with its partners to find innovative ways of providing much needed affordable housing in the City. In 2011 the Mariners Quay affordable housing development was awarded the UK Sustainable Large Housing Project of the Year award, beating more than 140 entries from around the country. Mariners Quay is the largest residential scheme in Wales to be built to level 5 of the Code for Sustainable Homes. Other Factors None. Data Development None identified.

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Affordable Warmth

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Data Set Number of households in fuel poverty Data Source Newport City Council, Affordable Warmth Survey

Analysis Indicator Fuel poverty is defined as a household paying 10% or more of their household income on fuel to adequately heat their home (over 20% is defined as being in severe fuel poverty). There are generally three factors that contribute to fuel poverty:

 household income;  thermal efficiency of the house; and  cost of utilities i.e. Gas and electric.

This data is sourced from the Affordable Warmth Survey which was sent to 53,555 households in Autumn 2011. The survey is conducted on all tenures, on a ward by ward basis across the city of Newport taking the wards in lowest deprivation first. The questionnaire is designed around RDSAP (energy measurement) assessment software and enables the resident to answer a series of simple questions relating to their home and income. The number of respondents to the survey was 10,626 (20%) and the average age of was 59 years. 29% of respondents are on an income related benefit and 20% on a disability benefit.

The information is then entered into the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) software to produce a SAP rating (Energy Performance rating) for that property. The SAP results are then mapped using a GIS system which is capable of grouping the SAP bands and mapping the areas worst affected. A SAP rating of 35 and lower is being used to identify homes in fuel poverty but the survey results can also pick up properties that may benefit from insulation measures where their SAP rating is above 35 but still low.

Data trend A household is defined as being fuel poor if it has to spend 10% or more of its income on paying to keep the home adequately warm. According to the latest data available, the percentage of respondents with a low income/ benefits and low energy rated home is 18% (1,939). This figure is taken from the survey where the energy performance of the house and the household income has been taken into account and fuel poverty has been identified.

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As a comparison, modelled figures for 2010 based on the 2008 Living in Wales Survey, estimated that around 332,000 households in Wales (26%) were in fuel poverty78. This is an increase of 198,000 households, or 15 percentage points, since 2004. In addition the NEA has quoted Consumer Focus as estimating that the number of fuel poor households in Wales increased to 425 161 (35%) in 2011.

What is driving the trend? With the average fuel bill in Wales climbing to well over £1,300 a year, a worryingly large number of people in Newport are struggling to keep their homes warm and so are forced to live in sub-standard conditions that actively damage their health. These conditions particularly affect the most vulnerable in our communities including the elderly, the disabled, those with young children and people with chronic ill-health conditions, and are exacerbated by the low fuel efficiency of their dwellings.

Our original survey was used as a baseline. Since the survey Newport City Council has been very successful in leveraging external funding from the Welsh Government and Energy providers to tackle fuel poverty through the provision of insulation grants. Hundreds of households have benefited from this funding to increase the energy performance of their homes. Unfortunately, the other side of the coin is that fuel prices have increased and added more people to the fuel poor list.

Current initiatives Newport City Council takes the issue of climate change seriously and is taking forward a number of actions to ensure the city is energy efficient, and makes an appropriate contribution to reducing Wales’ carbon footprint and reducing households in fuel poverty. Through the Affordable Warmth strategy, the Council is actively identifying households in fuel poverty, raising awareness and coordinating action to tackle fuel poverty.

We asked as part of the Affordable Warmth survey, and in order to gauge the interest of residents, whether they were interested in advice relating to household income maximisation and energy use. 52% of respondents were interested in receiving advice on their energy use, and 37% of respondents were interested in receiving advice on benefits.

Given that households’ basic needs in terms of keeping warm is so inextricably linked with wider indicators of wellbeing and health, the subject of affordable warmth has been chosen to focus agencies’ attention on helping those struggling to pay their fuel bills, and by providing opportunities that support economic recovery. This is very much in line with the actions set out in the Welsh Government’s strategy to eradicate fuel poverty.

Areas of development Newport City Council is now actively identifying households in fuel poverty and is maximising resources to raise awareness and co-ordinate action to tackle fuel poverty. Other Factors Reduction in CO2 emissions. Data Development None identified.

78 Living in Wales Survey, 2008

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Empty Homes

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Total number of private sector dwellings that had been vacant for more Data Set (Population Indicator) than 6 months at 1 April Newport City Council (denominator for the national strategic Data Source performance indicator PSR/004)

Number of privately owned homes empty for more than 6 months

1,160 1,140 1,120 1,100 1,080 1,060 1,040 1,020 1,000 980 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Newport 1,078 1,033 1121 1134

Analysis Indicator The data shows the number of privately owned homes in Newport that are empty/uninhabited for more than 6 months. People need to be able to live in a home that meets their needs for individual and family life, which fits with their employment and suits their budget. As households change and people move home, houses become empty and are re-occupied, so it is necessary for a vibrant local economy and for living communities to have a number of homes empty at any given time.

Data trend The number of private homes empty for more than 6 months has started to increase over past two years but the Empty Homes Strategy tackles those properties left empty for more than 2 years and aims not just to maintain the overall downward trend but to reduce the number of homes which become problematic, long- term empties.

What is driving the trend? Homes become empty for all sorts of reasons, both positive and negative, as households disperse, move and form. However, a house which remains empty for a long period can deteriorate to the point where it harbours environmental hazards such as damp or pests which then affect the neighbours’ homes. It can attract fly-tipping and vandalism and, through council tax discount, it reduces the resources available to the council to fund local services. If the number of empty homes builds up in a particular area, this can have a significant visual impact on the street scene and threaten the vitality of the area.

Since 2006 there have been dramatic changes to the economy and to the housing market in particular. Property prices have fallen, housing equity is lower, credit is much harder to obtain and owners are finding it more difficult to fund housing renovations. These factors tend to contribute to a rise in the number of empty

169 homes as people may find themselves unable to complete renovation work, or secure the sale of a property.

Current initiatives In order to reduce the impact of empty homes on their area, and also because a home left empty for a long period is a reduction in the available housing stock, most local authorities now have an Empty Homes Strategy. Newport City Council adopted a revised Empty Homes Strategy in 2010, with an action plan to bring empty homes back into use.

Areas of development The council continues to implement this plan and to work with the Welsh Government, neighbouring local authorities and partner Housing Associations to support a continued downward trend in the number of unoccupied homes, even in these challenging economic times. Other Factors None. Data Development None identified.

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Biodiversity - Priority Species (Wildlife)

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Welsh species of principal found within 2km of Newport Local Biodiversity Data Set (Population Indicator) Action Plan area Data Source National Biodiversity Network Gateway, 2011

Analysis Indicator The indicator is the count of Welsh Species of Principal Importance reported within 2km of the Newport LBAP Action Plan Area, which extends to the borders of the local authority.

Biodiversity is crucial to sustaining our local environment. A living Newport, where people, plants and animals are able to thrive, is hugely important not only in terms of the intrinsic value of the natural ecosystems around us, but also in terms of human society and economic development. Flourishing wildlife, for example, affords excellent educational opportunities for Newport’s school children, whilst the Wetlands Reserve at Uskmouth now attracts 100,000 visitors a year. In 2007, the Wales Environment Research Hub estimated that the economic value of wildlife and nature-related activities was £1.9 billion.

Data trend The data shows that the number of Welsh Priority Species is steadily declining in Newport. However, the data quality of this information is not robust, as it is largely gathered on an ad-hoc basis by local volunteer groups. It is also difficult to confirm the presence of a species in Newport as our flora and fauna do not choose their habitats according to local authority boundaries as humans do. As such, it is important that natural habitat is conserved, and the number of natural locations available where nature can exist should be considered in tandem with the number of priority species. It is true that species are iconic, however, and vital in engaging the public with conservation, and will therefore form our primary indicator for the health of Newport’s ecosystems. Worldwide, the number of species and habitats is in decline, and despite the issues around data quality it is reasonable to assume the downward trend described is correct.

What is driving the trend? Biodiversity loss due to human expansion is a global phenomenon, and this worldwide trend would support

171 the view that species and habitats in Newport are in decline. Pressures on land use, pollution, climate change and conflicts between wild and domestic animals, as well as humans, place ecosystems in a vulnerable position. Despite widespread acceptance of the need to conserve species and environments, the natural world is often considered expedient to short-term economic gains.

Current initiatives Despite the unfortunate trend toward species loss, initiatives such as the establishment of Newport’s first city centre nature reserve at Allt-yr-yn, the continuing work of the Biodiversity in Schools Officer and local charities, and the maintenance of significant, high-quality parkland and green space across the city will all hopefully act to stabilise this decline.

Planning guidance ensuring that the sustainability of local ecosystems is considered during development will also act to prevent loss of biodiversity through regeneration of the city, and new initiatives, such as green roofs and infrastructure such as cycle routes, offer further avenues for encouraging Newport’s wildlife to thrive. Residents can also make significant contributions through their garden use and controlling household pets.

Areas of development The Welsh Government is one of only a handful of legislative bodies with a duty to promote sustainable development. However, Wales as a whole has yet to reverse the trend of declining biodiversity. The Welsh Government will shortly be publishing A Living Wales, a new national framework for the natural environment, which will aim to mitigate the serious impacts we face should we continue to place greater demands on the environment than it is able to support. Newport should consider these developments, as contrary to the industrial image of the city we are well resourced with green spaces and parkland which allow wild species the opportunity to thrive, and benefit the image of the city in turn. These wild assets should be exploited in the way Newport markets and presents itself to the wider world as an attractive place to live, work, and visit. Other Factors This indicator overlaps with the availability of Green Space in Newport. These areas generally offer good habitat for wildlife and plants, although their proximity to human settlement means that they are often less suitable for more vulnerable species. Data Development Increasing volunteer resources and opportunities would allow for more robust collection of data. An indicator describing the availability and status of natural habitats, such as that utilised at an all-Wales level by the Welsh Government, giving local authority level data would also be useful to complete the picture.

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Green Space - Accessible Footpaths and Rights of Way

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport are healthy and thriving Data Set (Population Indicator) Accessible green space Accessible Natural Greenspace Standards by local authority, 2007-2010, Data Source Countryside Council for Wales

Analysis Indicator This indicator details the extent of accessible natural green space in Newport per thousand people. The indicator is collected by the Countryside Council for Wales (CCW). At present, data is only available for 14 of Wales’ 22 local authorities, but ongoing work will detail the missing areas as the CCW audit is completed.

CCW recommend that all people should have access to ample high quality green space in order to maintain their health and wellbeing. In addition to the intrinsic value green space offers to wildlife and habitat conservation, the availability of green space also has huge economic benefits in terms of the image of a place, increasing house prices and stimulating tourism. In 2007, the Wales Environment Research Hub estimated that the economic value of Wales’ wildlife and nature activities, attendant to the wealth of green space available in the country, stood around £1.9 billion.

Data trend & What is driving the trend? The CCW guidelines stipulate that for every thousand people in a local authority area there should be access to at least two hectares of high quality green space. As can be seen from the data, contrary to the popular image of Newport as an industrial town, the city enjoys a wealth of accessible, natural open spaces. Newport compares very favourably with many of its neighbours – of the other urban centres across Wales, Wrexham has 68ha per 1000 people, Swansea 52ha, and Cardiff only 11. The valley areas of Torfaen and Caerphilly both have less green space per 1000 head of population than can be found in Newport.

Further data from the CCW audit of green space across local authorities in Wales reveal that 75% of people live within 300m (approximately 6 minutes) walk of an accessible green space, 95% of people have a 20ha site within 2km, and 100% of the population live within 10km of a 500ha site. Two of the city’s biggest tourism attractions, the Newport Wetlands and Tredegar House and Country Park, are testament to the

173 quality and popularity of Newport’s green space, and the restored Belle Vue Park won the Green Flag Award in 2008. This supports the conclusion that Newport is able to boast a wealth of accessible green spaces for public use, and that balancing the provision of availability and quality, along with the built urban environment and green space has been well managed in Newport.

However, it is difficult for a single indicator to aptly describe the accessibility of green space, and this indicator in particular does not give an indication of the quality of green space available, which may vary considerably based on subjective perceptions of available green areas. Moreover, several of the city’s inner wards are conspicuously lacking in green space, largely due to the constraints of infrastructure and dense housing. The CCW data should therefore be considered in tandem with other available indicators where available to give a fuller picture.

Current initiatives Newport is conscious of the need to provide high-quality, accessible green space, and access to the riverside and natural areas has been a key consideration in the regeneration of the city. The Riverside Park, which has restored industrial land to a public green space, is a notable achievement for 2010. This indicator is not only about access to green space, but also the value added to the lives of residents and visitors. Other notable achievements in that regard are the Forest Schools project, the establishment of the Allt-yr-yn nature reserve, the restoration of Newport’s historic Fourteen Locks Canal Centre, Beechwood, and Belle Vue Parks, the annual Parklife festival, and Newport’s extremely successful Guided Walks programme.

Areas of development Newport is well served with green space, and the evidence overwhelmingly demonstrates that the availability of natural areas has profound benefits in terms of physical and mental health, encouraging sport and exercise, community cohesion, and stimulating the economy and tourism. However, the importance of green space to health, wellbeing and prosperity has not always been drawn out in high-level strategies, and Newport should move the improvement and conservation of these areas up the agenda to exploit what is a key, and often untapped, asset for the city.

A key emerging issue in Newport is the incidence of vandalism in parks and natural centres, with the Fourteen Locks Centre and Belle Vue Park each being subject to vandalism in the last eighteen months. Damage and destruction at these areas diminishes a vital asset for Newport - Newport Wetlands Reserve attracted its 100,000th visitor to Newport in 2011 and is a national hallmark for the benefits of providing what can be achieved by maximising good quality, environmentally sympathetic, and fully accessible green space in the city and the safety and security of these areas will be an important issue for the future. Other Factors  The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2011 – Physical Environment  Number of trees planted  Accessible footpaths and rights-of-way  Tourism at green space destinations (Newport Wetlands, Tredegar House)  Use of public parks  Crime and ASB in parks and green spaces Data Development Data development should include establishing a baseline for perceptions of quality in relation to local green spaces.

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People in Newport live in a Safe and Cohesive Community (Safe and Cohesive Communities)

Ensuring that Newport is a safe and welcoming place for everybody is essential to the success of this city. People and communities have a better quality of life when they live free from bullying, harassment and violence and people contribute more to society when they feel safe at home and when out in the community. Confidence that Community Safety partners are dealing with local safety concerns and promoting an inclusive community is a key issue for Newport and the One Newport Local Service Board (LSB). Partners continue to work closely across the city to address the concerns faced by local people and communities.

The 12 months to September 2012 has seen above average crime and anti-social behaviour (ASB) reductions, with crime down to 95.2 and ASB 72.6 recorded incidents per 1000 population. A continuation of this downward trend will ensure that over the next two years Newport will move in line with the average levels of crime and ASB for similar local authority areas across the country. However in order to achieve this emphasis needs to remain on reducing incidents, particularly in the city centre, of ASB, acquisitive crime, and violent crime. Challenging targets need to be set for the coming year and continued emphasis on Integrated Offender Management and Youth Justice needs to be maintained alongside prevention and intervention activities across all priority areas.

There appears to be little change shown in the data available in relation to public confidence. However empirical evidence still needs to be improved and refined and the surveys introduced in the previous year will continue in order to build on the data sets available. Public perceptions and confidence need to be built up across Newport through activities such as media campaigns and visible marketing campaigns along with confidence building across all sectors of the community and economy. The work of all partnerships and agencies needs to be reinforced through a concerted campaign to change perceptions of the city, both across Newport and beyond the city boundaries.

The commitment to addressing domestic abuse and violence has continued with the new Domestic Abuse Unit increasing its profile amongst all agencies and staff, and increasing coordination and availability of services. A Gwent wide Domestic Abuse Pathfinder Review sponsored by the Welsh Government is being undertaken that will assist in identifying current resource gaps and suggest recommendations on how capacity concerns should be managed.

The overall trend for deliberate fires has been downward; however analysis on these updated trends is currently not available. Work on targeted interventions continues alongside education through schools and the media. The successful multi agency ASB campaigns continue along with work in relation to grass fires in the spring and summer school holiday periods.

Alcohol and substance misuse continue to be a driver for crime and disorder and feelings of personal safety in some areas of the city. Alcohol in particular has been identified as one of the main drivers for crime, ASB and the perceptions of personal safety. A new or renewed emphasis on this continues to needs to be championed both through health and crime related activities.

Road Traffic Casualties across Newport are below the Wales average. Continued emphasis on current and past initiatives needs to be maintained with improved exchange of information and knowledge of existing schemes and protocols seen as areas for development.

Community Cohesion and trust between people underlie issues of crime and personal safety. A cohesive community where the safety of citizens and the responsibility for individual or group actions and

175 behaviour is accepted by all not just individual agencies tasked with the responsibility to manage it or provide enforcement is one of the keys to improving public confidence and empowerment across the city. It is imperative that all residents and visitors to the city feel safe in all situations whether at work, school, shopping, using parks and leisure facilities or in their own home and local community.

Asylum Seekers, Refugees, Migrants, and Hate Crime are closely interwoven with Community Cohesion. Although there is no evidence to date of serious inter-community conflict in Newport, extensive research conducted elsewhere in the UK has identified certain ‘predictors’ of both positive and negative community cohesion, many of which are in evidence in Newport at this time. It is vital therefore that the city’s key delivery agencies (represented through the LSB) take a proactive approach to promoting social cohesion.

The key issues for Newport are identified as:  Increasing public confidence in the police and local authority in how they manage crime and anti-social behaviour, particularly in the city centre  Minimising the number of young people entering the criminal justice system  Developing and supporting social and community cohesion and improving neighbourhood engagement, planning and integration of services to meet local needs  Reducing the impact of alcohol and substance misuse on individuals, families and communities  Continued focus on a multi-agency preventative approach for vulnerable children, young people and their families

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All Recorded Crime

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Data Set (Population Indicator) Annual crime rate per 1,000 population (Recorded crime in Newport) Home Office Data Source iQuanta

Newport Annual Crime Rate (per 1,000 population)

160.0

140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0 Newport

Annual rate of Crime per of per Crime rate Annual 1,000 residents Wales 20.0

0.0 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Newport 138.6 149.7 138.8 138.5 136.0 128.3 121.4 121.3 108.6 95.2 Wales 98.1 96.2 89.0 85.8 86.0 81.0 78.7 73.6 67.5 63.4 Financial Year

Analysis Indicators This indicator is the annual recorded crime rate per 1,000 population. It provides information in relation to all types of crime across Newport that are required to be recorded by the Home Office. It includes all types of violence, and property related crime as well as offences identified by the police that may not be subject of a complaint from an individual but are recognised as offences by statute or common law.

The chart shows how Newport has performed against other Community Safety Partnership areas in the country. The Most Similar Group (MSG) groupings are produced by the Home Office using a number of data sources to create a measure of similarity.

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The analysis compares data in the 12 months from 1 October 2011 to September 2012.

Data trend The indicator shows that crime in Newport has been going down year on year, and at the end of 2011/12 stood at 95.2 crimes per 1,000 residents. The average across Wales was 63.4 and the average nationally was 71.9.

What is driving the trend? Analysis shows that one of the factors driving the current crime trend is the increase in shoplifting. In the past 18 months this has expanded beyond the city centre and now includes Pill (predominantly the ASDA store) and Lliswerry ward (predominantly Spytty retail park).

Last year one of the factors identified was multi-occupancy housing. It has not been possible to carry out any research into the relationship between crime /Anti Social Behaviour (ASB) and Multi Occupancy Housing in Newport, but anecdotally practitioners who work on the front line of tackling crime and ASB continue to suspect that there is a link, and understanding more about this may help to tackle some of the problems in Newport.

Repeat and Prolific offending is another factor that contributes to crime and ASB. The estimated rate of repeat offending (as a percentage of all offending) is currently about 45% (based on the assumption that what we know about known offenders applies equally to all offenders). This compares to an estimated rate of 36.6% for the same period a year earlier. It must be noted that this is only an estimate and measuring repeat offending rates can be carried out in a number of different ways. The method used for the calculation above is simply to look at all crimes with a named offender, and then working out the percentage of those offenders who are named in more than one crime.

Although the analysis has identified an increase in Assault without Injury it has not been possible to identify what has driven this.

Current initiatives Please refer to templates relating to: Acquisitive Crime Violent Crime Prolific offending City Centre

Areas of development The trend in the overall crime rate in Newport has deviated slightly from the Wales average trend, and the gap is closing. This indicates that the focus on crime reduction targets is working. However, the reason why Newport has historically had a relatively high crime rate are not fully understood and further research may be of benefit in providing clearer understanding of these factors.

They may include:  the urban and diverse nature of Newport compared to other parts of Wales  socio Economic factors unique to Newport  links that Newport has with criminality elsewhere in the Gwent area and more widely across the country  genuine higher levels of crime in Newport compared with other MSG areas  different approaches to policing amongst members of the MSG

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 differences in recording of crime  differences in reporting of crime  errors in the methodology and/or the data that is used to construct MSG comparisons Other Factors The combination of vulnerable persons, multi occupancy housing, local service provision, and community cohesion may be factors that are contributing to and possibly driving, crime and disorder in hotspot areas across the city. Data Development This may include:  Further analysis of multi occupancy housing and its impact on local crime and disorder.  Reasons why Newport has had such a historically high crime rate  What factors attract certain age groups of offenders to an area

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Acquisitive Crime

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Annual serious acquisitive crime rate per 1,000 population Annual domestic burglary crime rate per 1,000 population Data Set (Population Indicator) Annual shoplifting crime rate per 1,000 population Quarterly thefts from motor vehicles Quarterly metal theft crimes Data Source Home Office / Gwent Police / IQuanta

Annual Serious Acquisitive Crime rate per 1,000 population

10 Annual Crimer per 1,000population perCrimer Annual 5

0 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Newport 29 27 24 26 22 16 Wales 16 15 14 12 10 9

Annual Domestic Burlgary Crime rate per 1,000 population

Annual Crimer per 1,000population perCrimer Annual 2

0 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Newport 7 8 8 10 8 5 Wales 4 4 4 3 3 3

Annual Shoplifting Crime rate per 1,000 population

4 Annual Crimer per 1,000population perCrimer Annual 2

0 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Newport 11 10 11 11 10 11 Wales 5 5 6 6 5 6

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Annual Theft From Motor Vehicle Crime rate per 1,000 population

4 Annual Crimer per 1,000population perCrimer Annual

0 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Newport 15 13 12 12 10 9 Wales 9 7 7 6 5 4

Quarterly Metal Theft crimes in Newport

250

200

150

100 Monthly Monthly Volume

Q1 2009/10 Q1 2009/10 Q3 2009/10 Q4 2010/11 Q2 2011/12 Q1 2011/12 Q3 2011/12 Q4 2012/13 Q2 Q2 2009/10 Q2 2010/11 Q1 2010/11 Q3 2010/11 Q4 2011/12 Q2 2012/13 Q1

Quarter / Year

Analysis Indicator The main indicator is the annual rate per 1,000 population of Serious Acquisitive Crime in Newport compared to the Wales average. Acquisitive crime is made up a number of different crime categories: domestic burglary, robbery, theft from vehicle and theft of motor vehicle, and attempts to commit these offences.

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The other indicators are:  the annual rate per 1,000 population of domestic burglary in Newport compared to the rate across Wales  the annual rate per 1,000 population of shoplifting in Newport compared to the rate across Wales  the quarterly volume of theft from motor vehicles in Newport  the quarterly volume of metal theft in Newport

The analysis compares data in the 12 months from 1 October 2010 to September 2011.

The chart shows how Newport has performed against other Community Safety Partnership areas in the country covering the period up to October 2011. The Most Similar Group (MSG) groupings are produced by the Home Office using a number of data sources to create a measure of similarity. Note that this measure for Serious Acquisitive Crime only includes dwelling burglary, robbery, theft from vehicle and theft of vehicle.

Data trend There has been an overall decrease of 21.3% across all crimes classified as Serious Acquisitive Crime, and Newport has shown improvements against its Most Similar Community Safety Partnerships now being placed below the upper control limit.

Newport currently has a 12 months Domestic Burglary rate of 11.6 per 1,000 residents (12 months to October 2012). This is an improvement of 18.6% compared to the same period a year earlier. Over the same period the MSG average has improved by 10.7%. Metal theft has decreased by 28% year on year (12 months to September 2012 compared to the same period a year earlier). This compares to a 64% increase when the UNA was carried out last year. Shoplifting has increased by 25.8% (12 months to September 2012 compared to the same period a year earlier). This compares to a 16.6% decrease when the UNA was carried out last year. Thefts from Motor Vehicles have decreased by 28.2% in the 12 months to September 2012. This follows on from a large decrease the year before. The long term trend since 2006/07 is a decrease of 40%, which is in line with the Wales national trend. However the rate per 1,000 in Newport has consistently been higher than the Wales average.

The four wards with the highest levels of Acquisitive Crime are Stow Hill, Pill, Lliswerry and Victoria. These have remained the same since the last UNA last year.

What is driving the trend? Acquisitive crime is generally being reduced across the country with new initiatives and legislation being enacted around metal thefts and its disposal. Serious and prolific offenders are being monitored closely by the Newport Integrated Offender Management team and work with the probation service is continuing to make further improvements to this scheme. Although regular shoplifting offenders have been targeted in the city centre the work undertaken has raised the profile of offences and increased recording, city centre targeting has also caused displacement to other areas of the city. Socio economic factors relating to the economy are also thought to have a bearing on this increase.

Current initiatives City centre Business Crime Partnership, with its digital communication system is being considered for out of town shopping areas along with a new business partnership IT solution.

Regular meetings of City Centre Tactical Group discuss retail /business crime matters with information and intelligence passed to security staff and traders.

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Projects raising awareness about prevention tactics prior to offences being committed amongst traders continue.

Increased cohesion between CCTV, Police and Traders.

Area of development Metal thefts remain a concern, and the associated disruption to phone lines, train services and other vital infrastructure will remain a risk

Changes in social benefits and current financial difficulties across the UK may see financial pressures placed upon certain groups of people which may result in an increase in all acquisitive crime rates.

Engagement of out of town traders into the successful business crime partnership scheme needs to be continued. Other Factors Metal thefts remain a concern, and the associated disruption to phone lines, train services and other vital infrastructure will remain a risk.

Changes in social benefits and current financial difficulties across the UK may see financial pressures placed upon certain groups of people which may result in an increase in acquisitive crime rates.

Other indicators to consider include:  Acquisitive crime by ward and street  Acquisitive crime national comparison / MSG comparison  Crime density by ward  Victims of acquisitive crime by age / gender / social economic  Offenders of acquisitive crime by age / gender / social economic Data Development This may include:  Further analysis of multi occupancy housing and its impact on local crime and disorder  Reasons why Newport has had such a historically high crime rate  What factors are attracting certain age group offenders to the area

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Violent Crime

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Violence against the person rate per 1,000 population Data Set (Population Indicator) Sexual offence rate per 1,000 population Data Source Gwent Police / iQuanta

Violence Against the Person rates per 1,000 population

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Newport CSP 31.0 29.3 28.5 26.5 28.2 26.6 24.4 22.6 19.3 18.1 Wales 18.3 18.2 18.2 17.8 18.1 16.6 15.9 15.5 14.1 13.1

Sexual Offences rate per 1,000 population

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Newport CSP 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 Wales 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

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Charts:

Analysis Indicator The indicators show the annual rate per 1,000 population of Violence Against the Person (VAP) in Newport and the annual rate per 1,000 population of Sexual Offences in Newport compared to the Wales average.

The analysis compares data in the 12 months from 1 October 2010 to September 2011.

The charts show the Most Similar Group (MSG) for violent crime and sexual offences and cover the 12 month period up to October 2011. These two charts have been compared to the same charts for the same 12 month period one year earlier in order to identify year on year change.

There has been a 14.6% reduction in Violence Against the Person (VAP) offences during the 12 months to September 2012.

*Please note that the iQuanta group of recorded violence has changed with some data such as Public Order Offences having now been removed.

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Data trend Newport has seen a 34% year on year reduction for iQuanta measured VAP, compared against an MSG average reduction of 23.2%. This larger than average reduction means that Newport is now marginally above the MSG average (9% above average), whereas at the same time a year ago Newport was 27.3% above the MSG average.

There has been a reduction across all categories of VAP, except for Assault Without Injury. This offences has seen an increase from 219 to 284 (29.7%) Year to Date (April to October 2012 compared to April to October 2011).

Year to Date (April to October 2012) indicates about 22.4% of all Violent Crime was in the city centre. This is a reduction compared to the same period last year when about 30.3% of all violent crime was in the city centre. In the same period violence in the city centre has decreased from 462 to 264 (42.9%). This compares to a 12% decrease that was recorded in the UNA last year.

The main contributing factors of Violence Against the Person YTD (April – Oct 2012) are alcohol and Domestic Violence. Alcohol as a contributing factor has increased from 50.3% to 56.4%, and Domestic Violence as a contributing factor has increased from 24.8% to 31%.

What is driving the trend? Activity in the city centre is a major contributor to violent crime. A proactive stance to public order has resulted in less recorded incidents of violent crime causing an injury but increased recording of minor assaults. This has resulted in a 20.4% decrease in Section 47 assaults occasioning actual bodily harm.

The main contributing factors towards violent crime are alcohol fuelled violence and domestic violence, which account for 59.6% of all incidences of violence. Alcohol fuelled violence accounts for 1,382 incidences and domestic violence for 666 incidences out of a total of 2,671. Outside of the city centre, the main areas for violent crime are Clarence Place and Chepstow Road in the Victoria ward. There are three smaller hotspots in Bettws, Pill and Cromwell Road in the Lliswerry ward.

Current initiatives  Weekly city centre tactical group meeting  Enhanced briefing and information for night time economy staff e.g. door staff, Street Pastors, Pub Watch  Increased use of multi agency visits and enforcement activities  Formation of a local authority responsible bodies group addressing all licensing activities and problem premises/outlets  Proactive multi agency enforcement activities linked to the taxi trade, licensing and associated offending  Increased police visibility at targeted times and locations

Areas of development  Increased use of current targeted interventions  Development of socio and economic interventions relating to the city centre and its users  Analysis of both Domestic Abuse/Violence data and NTE data in the city centre should be considered.  Crimes of Sexual Violence should be monitored to anticipate and address any changes required in single agency or partnership activity Other Factors Other indicators to consider include:

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 Monthly time series of police recorded violent crime  Violent crime by type of violence  Monthly hospital accident and emergency data  Monthly hospital admissions data  Monthly ambulance data  Violent crime by ward  Violent crime by street  Violent crime density (per 1,000 population)  Victims of violent crime data by age/gender/ethnicity  Offenders of violent crime by age/gender/ethnicity/social economic status  Data on dealing with violent crime (arrests, justice data, etc)

Migration continues to place demands on public services in Newport and has been associated with crime and disorder issues around violence, prostitution, shoplifting and alcohol abuse. Data Development Further analysis of data sets in relation to persons attending Accident and Emergency.

Further analysis to establish what factors in relation to migration may be placing a demand on public services and in particular those relating to crime and associated activities.

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Prolific Offending

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Rate of adult re-offending Data Set (Population Indicator) Number of convictions prolific and other priority offender re-offending Ministry of Justice Youth and Adult Data Source IQuanta Gwent Police

Analysis Indicators The indicators used to analyse re-offending are divided between young persons and adults. Information in relation to young persons is found under Youth Justice.

Rate of adult re-offending - this is the iQuanta NI18 measure as published by the Home Office. It is designed to track the level of adult re-offending at a local level. It tracks the actual rate of adult re- offending against a baseline level (an expected level based on past trends) and the number of offenders who are being managed by the local probations service (case load). A re-offence is counted where an offender commits an offence within 3 months of the end of a quarter and this offence is proven by a conviction or caution within 6 months.

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Number of convictions prolific and other priority offender re-offending - this is the iQuanta NI30 measure as published by the Home Office. It is designed to track the level of reoffending for a cohort of local prolific offenders who are being managed by the probation service and other agencies. It tracks the actual cumulative rate of reoffending against a baseline level (an expected level based on a national reduction target). The most prolific offenders in Newport are managed as part of an Integrated Offender Management (IOM) approach.

Data trend As of March 2011, the level of adult re-offending in Newport was below the baseline for the predicted level of re-offending.

Prolific and other priority offender re-offending data shows that the cumulative level of re-offending is below the target level. This is a good indicator of the success of the Integrated Offender Management approach that has been adopted in Newport.

What is driving the trend? Both sets of data show positive trends that are below their respective baselines. This is likely to be due to the success of the Integrated Offender Management approach that has been introduced in Newport. However, other intelligence suggests that prolific and repeat offenders are still very active in Newport and are responsible for an unknown but high volume of crime. This may be a factor contributing to the high levels of crime that Newport records as identified in the section All Recorded Crime.

Current initiatives  Consolidation of the monthly migration meeting  Weekly meetings of operational multi agency staff ensuring swift action on non compliance and continued offending  Community Safety Partnership Priority and Prolific Offending (CSPPPO) accommodation fund

Areas of development  Identification of possible future partners and key stakeholders in the development of a broader range of diversionary activities linked to the process of early intervention  Continued emphasis on the transition between youth and adult offenders Other Factors There are indications to suggest that more and more offenders are being housed in Newport from other parts of Gwent contributing to crime and disorder however at present no empirical evidence has been made available to confirm this. Data Development The amount of crime (volume and percentage) committed by prolific and repeat offenders is often difficult to interpret and the success rate and criteria of the scheme are based upon criminal justice projects and methodology provided by the Home Office and Ministry of Justice.

Repeat offenders of Anti Social Behaviour (ASB) alone are not monitored through the IOM system and are therefore not managed as comprehensively as repeat offenders of crime.

Types of accommodation and housing of known offenders and its relation to local service provision and crime and disorder would assist in identifying and addressing any contributory factors that may assist in further reducing recorded incidents.

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Youth Justice

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Families First Outcome Families are confident, nurturing, resilient and safe Communities First Outcome Prosperous communities Frequency of re-offending rates Data Set (Population Indicator) Number of first time entrants to the Youth Justice System Data Source Youth Justice Board (Youth Offending Service Newport)

Analysis Indicator In England and Wales, young people aged between 10-17 years of age can be held criminally responsible for their actions. The indicator on first time entrants (FTE) into the Youth Justice System (YJS) provides an indication of number of first time offenders dealt with by Newport and Gwent. Nationally (in England and Wales), the majority (60%) of proven youth offending is dealt with in court with the rest dealt with by the

190 police through reprimands or final warnings. It is estimated that during 2009 youth offending cost the economy between £8.5 to £11 billion79.

The frequency of re offending indicator focuses on tracking a cohort of young offenders who were in the criminal justice system between January to March in a given year. The data then tracks this cohort over a period of time (3, 6, 9 and 12 months) to identify those that re-offend and the frequency of re-offences. The frequency of re-offences is calculated by the number re-offences over the number tracked within a cohort.

Data trend There has been a gradual reduction in FTE from 435 in 2007/2008 to 154 in 2011/12. This represents an overall reduction over the period of 64.6% compared with overall reductions for Gwent of 59.4% and South Wales of 77.1%.

Currently all re offending data nationally and regionally is base-lined against 2005 figures. The data shows that there has been a significant improvement in reoffending rates since 2005 at both the local level (Newport), regional (South Wales group) and national level (Wales). The most significant decrease in reoffending frequency between 2005 and 2008 was noted in Newport, reducing from a frequency of 2.14 in 2005 to 0.91 in 2008. Between 2008 and 2009, reoffending frequency remained relatively static at 0.91. However, the 2010 figures showed that there has been an increase in the frequency of re-offending to 1.07. This is a trend consistent with the rest of the region and Wales. The 2010 figures for both Wales and the South Wales group have also shown an increase in the frequency of reoffending.

What is driving the trend? Whilst there has been a reduction in all areas, the higher percentage reduction in other areas of Wales may result from their adoption of diversionary alternatives such as the Triage system in Cardiff and the Bureau system in Swansea. All areas of Gwent offer Restorative Justice Disposals as an alternative to entry into the CJS, however, a number of young people who are still suitable for Restorative Justice Disposals still receive Reprimands and Final Warnings.

Since re offending data set only looks at cohort during a snapshot in time, it is difficult to extract specific drivers that would be responsible for any increases in the frequency of reoffending for that given point in time. The shift of emphasis towards a more risk managed approach to assessing young offenders could explain why the frequency rates of reoffending rose. During 2010, improved links with Integrated Offender Management saw more young people becoming classified on the ‘prolific and other priority offender (PPO)’ list. This list is carefully monitored so young people that are on this list are more closely tracked, increasing the likelihood of capturing reoffenders. The introduction of the Scaled Approach Model has seen more young offenders classified on the PPO list. Young people who reoffend often become disengaged and socially excluded from society. Re- offenders often have complex needs associated with their health and/or social problems such as drug and alcohol misuse, mental health problems, homelessness and are not in education, employment or training. It is recognised that factors such as poor employment prospects, a low skill base, and unstable accommodation can all contribute to affecting an offenders’ ability to reintegrate with society on release from custody.

Current initiatives A joint inspection of the Gwent Police and YOS service in December 2009 identified the lack of an overarching prevention strategy. It also highlighted the need for prevention work with young people at risk of offending to be better integrated with other services and partners. In response, in April 2011 the responsibility for first

79 Ministry of Justice/National Audit Office, Report by the Controller and Auditor General, HC 663 session 2010-11, The Youth Justice System in England and Wales: Reducing offending by young people, 10th December 2010

191 time entrants and prevention work associated with those at risk of committing offences transferred across to the Early Intervention Prevention Service (EIPS). The EIPS has now become Prevention Team Around the Family Newport and offers a single point of contact for prevention with vulnerable children, young people and their families to provide holistic support and interventions in a multi-agency approach. It is anticipated that this will help to maintain the reduction in FTE into the YJS by enabling the early identification of young people who demonstrate risk factor for anti-social and/or offending behaviour. Risk factors for offending include family breakdown, educational underachievement, substance abuse, and mental health issues. Addressing these risk factors can contribute to the prevention of offending and reduce reoffending.

Current activities also include:  Closer multi-agency working arrangements when responding to prolific offenders

 Ensuring all children and young people subject to statutory orders have good quality plans in place within national time-scales that are reviewed regularly.

 Improving the quality of training accessed by staff working with young offenders

Areas of development Uncertainty around police processes and data collection/sharing with Youth Offending Services in Gwent continues to be an area of development to ensure that pre-court and early intervention issues for young people are dealt with effectively and consistently. It is also acknowledged there is a need to monitor outcomes for young people who receive preventative interventions by tracking whether or not they become FTEs in the future. Processes are being put in place to track all young people who received relevant interventions from April 2012.

Other priorities include the need to focus on improving the resettlement experience of young offenders on exit from the youth justice system that includes the provision of secure accommodation, access to employment, education or training opportunities through establishing a resettlement panel to support young offenders leaving custody. This will ensure that young people leaving custody are offered the right type of multi-agency support via the resettlement panel.

Consideration of practices adopted in Cardiff and Swansea may be an area of work that needs further exploring by Newport. Other Factors Links to first time entrants to the Youth Justice System and their relationship with prolific offenders. Data Development A more unified approach to data collection agreed nationally by the Home Office and Ministry of Justice, should lead to the development of more robust, transparent and meaningful data on re-offending rates.

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Anti Social Behaviour

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB) rate per 1,000 residents Data Set (Population Indicator) Quarterly ASB rates Gwent Police Data Source Newport City Council Newport City Homes

Analysis Indicator Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB) rate per 1,000 residents – this indicator is the rate of police recorded ASB in Newport compared with the rate across Wales. The source of this data is the Home Office and a warning is always published with ASB data because they have not been signed off as a National Statistic. This does not mean the data is inaccurate but it has not gone through the required rigorous statistical methodology tests.

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Monthly ASB rates – this data shows the number of ASB incidents recorded by category on a monthly basis by the police and City Council. Both data sets are accompanied by upper and lower significance lines that have been calculated using the standard deviation based on the most recent two year average. The significance of the upper and lower bands is that any variation within the bands can be considered as normal.

*Please note that the ASB data has been downloaded from the police.uk website and although there is no reason to question the robustness of the data, it is not classed as a National Statistic in the same way that crime data is.

Data trend The Year to Date (YTD) trend between April to October 2012 shows that the volume of Police recorded ASB has fallen from 7,609 to 4,843. This represents a 36.3% decrease compared to the same period one year earlier. This is consistent with what has been happening over the most recent 12 month period with Police recorded ASB having decreased 29.5% during the 12 months to September 2012 (compared with the same 12 months a year earlier).

The Year to Date (YTD) trend between April to September 2012 shows that the volume of Council recorded ASB has fallen from 5,747 to 4,974. This represents a 13.4% decrease compared to the same period one year earlier. This YTD trend is also consistent with what has been happening over the most recent 12 month period. Council recorded ASB has decreases 14.9% during the 12 months to September 2012 (compared with the same 12 months a year earlier).

What is driving the trend? Seasonal factors such as off road bike related ASB and fireworks in the run up to 5th November. Past experience shows that to a greater extent these drivers can be planned for and minimized through a proactive partnership approach.

“Signal Crime” factors - Signal Crime is a concept that links the look and feel of a neighbourhood to the levels of minor crime and ASB in a neighbourhood; shabby looking, run down neighbourhoods are a trigger for low level crime such as vandalism, graffiti, criminal damage and ASB.

Street drinking (some of this is related to youths and some of it is related to adults substance misusers). This is a widespread driver in towns and cities across the whole country and there is no single solution. A joined up partnership problem solving approach is absolutely essential. In Newport the number of ASB incidents that were related to alcohol YTD (April to October 2012) was 493 (10.2% of all ASB). This compares to 11.1% of all ASB for the same period a year earlier. It is quite likely that these figures are an underestimate of the role of alcohol in ASB, but without good quality data it is not possible to say by how much.

Socio-economic factors such as employment, education, housing can be a widespread driver in towns and cities across the whole country and there is no single solution. This needs to be addressed in partnership with all agencies.

Current initiatives Current initiatives include:  Multi agency response to incidents of deliberate fire setting  Seasonal Operations relating to key dates eg Bonfire Night, Halloween, Christmas  Targeting of priority wards  Deployment of I zone to engage young persons and signpost them to activities

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 Joint publication of Good News stories, information leaflets and diary  Early identification of those at risk of offending  Packages of support for young people and their families  Positive Futures on Street Project engaging young persons in sporting activities.

Areas of development The reasons why Newport has a high relative rate of ASB are not fully understood and it may be worthwhile conducting research into this in order to better understand factors that have / are contributing to it.

The available ASB data does not allow for the age breakdown of offenders. Filling this gap would be particularly useful for those who are providing services to young people.

The IT system used to record Council ASB has recently changed and the capture of ward name information seems to have suffered as a consequence.

The ASB referral database that has been recommended in the last two Strategic Assessments is still not in place. It is currently being piloted in Torfaen and an early adoption in Newport would be very beneficial.

The development of an ASB mapping tool that accesses all agencies data that may be used to inform targeted projects and evaluate outcomes. Other Factors Emerging issues include:  Street culture and young people (gang problems and street drinking for example) will continue to concern local residents  Street drinking by young people will continue to affect quality of life  Young people who receive ABCs or ASBOs are dispersing into other locations or communities, problem moving to other areas as opposed to being dealt with  ASB in Maesglas has shown an increase. This may be an indication of an emerging problem. Data Development Most Similar Group (MSG) differences are not very well understood. Further research focused on this particular issue may help to understand these differences better and may lead to recommendation for closing the MSG gap.

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Domestic Abuse

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Annual rate (per 1,000 residents) of Domestic Abuse Data Set (Population Indicator) Annual rate (per 1,000 residents) of Domestic Violence Data Source Home Office and Gwent Police

Analysis Indicator According to the British Crime Survey at least 1 in 4 women and 1 in 6 men will experience domestic abuse during their life time. Although, the statistics imply there are fewer male victims, some studies have suggested that this is because male victims are less likely to report being a victim of domestic abuse due to social stigmas.

There are two sets of data that reflect domestic violence/abuse. One set of data collected records the ‘reported incidences of domestic violence’, whilst the other indicator provides a measure of ‘reported domestic abuse incidences’. To fully understand the complexity of the issue both sets of data should be considered in tandem. Analysing domestic violence incidents alone would not provide a full picture of

196 domestic abuse as it only measures violent behaviour and doesn’t take into account other forms of domestic abuse that include emotional, financial and sexual abuse.

Data trend Domestic Abuse The data shows that there has been a year on year increase in recorded Domestic Abuse from 2,265 in 2010/11 up to 2,428 in 2011/12 (7.2%). The most recent trend (April – October 2012) shows that the increase has continued and currently stands at 12% (1,572 up to 1,762).

Domestic Violence The data shows that there has been a year on year decrease in recorded Domestic Violence from 860 in 2010/11 down to 808 in 2011/12 (6%). The most recent trend (April – October 2012) shows that the current volume of recorded Domestic Violence has remained at the same level as the same period a year earlier (507 Domestic Violence crimes April – October 2011 and 508 Domestic Violence crimes April – October 2012).

What is driving the trend? A key factor to consider when analysing this data is how domestic abuse is defined by different agencies. A lack of a consistent agreement on how to define domestic abuse can lead to inaccuracies in the recording of data. For example, changes made to the crime recording system by the police will have a knock on impact on the definition and hence how this data is collected.

Key contributory factors to the recent increase in reported incidences might have been a heightened awareness and understanding amongst both key front line workers and people in society who are either victims of domestic abuse or are close to such people. Domestic abuse now has a much higher profile on the policy agenda both nationally through the publication of the Welsh Government’s Domestic Abuse Strategy as well as locally through the development of work-based policies for domestic abuse. Initiatives such as Clare’s Law and the daily DACC (Domestic Abuse Conference Call) are both good examples.

Studies indicate that periods such as Christmas and school summer holidays, alcohol, sporting events, financial pressures, pregnancy and post childbirth may all contribute to domestic violence and abuse. The 2010 Newport KAFKA report into Domestic Abuse indicated that about half of all offenders of Domestic Abuse had either a drug, alcohol or mental health problem, and that over half of them had been in trouble with the Police in the past .Wards with the highest levels of deprivations also had the highest levels of Domestic Abuse.

Current initiatives Current initiatives include:  Clare’s Law  Daily Domestic Abuse Conference Calls (DACC) and MARAC procedures  Launch of a dedicated Domestic Abuse Unit by Gwent Police  Newport Domestic Abuse Unit  Multi agency data collation, sharing and training of frontline staff and their managers  Adoption of the KAFKA and 10,000 Safer Lives recommendations and related initiatives across Newport services

Areas for development Despite the progress made in terms of current practice there are still gaps in service delivery that require further development relating to:  Implementation of perpetrator programmes prior to enforcement  Further training and re-training for key partners to raise awareness of the domestic abuse and violence agenda

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Other Factors Further detailed data is required as there is a reliance on police data, which only records reported incidences of domestic violence and does not pick up developing issues around domestic abuse. Initial data gathering from third sector organisations in Newport indicates that a proportion of victims do not report Domestic Abuse or Violence to the police.

National data for Domestic Abuse is not available and therefore it is not possible to make comparisons with national or regional rates.

Data in relation to BME populations is currently not available and recognised as a development need. DASH data has not been analysed due to lack of resources.

Domestic Abuse referral data has not been analysed due to lack of resources. Data Development Further improved data sets will continue to be collated. Current work relating to the sharing and analysis of data via GIS mapping will continue. D.A.S.H. risk assessment data requires digital collation and analysis.

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Deliberate Fires

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community All deliberate fires Data Set (Population Indicator) Deliberate primary and secondary fires by ward Deliberate fires hotspot (deliberate secondary fires) Data Source South Wales Fire and Rescue Service

All Deliberate Fires as recorded by South Wales Fire and Rescue Service

3.50 Newport

SWFRS area 3.00 Linear (Newport)

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00 Q1 2009/10 Q2 2009/10 Q3 2009/10 Q4 2009/10 Q1 2010/11 Q2 2010/11 Q3 2010/11 Q4 2010/11 Q1 2011/12 Q2 2011/12 Newport 2.24 1.78 1.57 1.72 3.28 1.52 1.18 1.27 2.27 1.50 SWFRS area 1.72 1.02 0.81 1.43 2.88 0.92 0.79 1.06 1.67 0.81

Deliberate Primary Deliberate Secondary 12months to 12months 12months 12months to Ward Sept 10 to Sept 11 Ward to Sept 10 Sept 11 Pill 16 23 Ringland 110 80 Bettws 20 22 Bettws 110 69 Lliswerry 26 18 Alway 81 68 Alway 18 16 Lliswerry 135 67 Victoria 15 15 Tredegar Park 118 61 Stow Hill 13 12 Pill 45 53 Caerleon 7 9 Victoria 47 51 Ringland 19 7 St Julians 28 35 Marshfield 10 7 Stow Hill 50 33 Shaftsbury 5 7 Alt-Yr-Yn 32 33 Malpas 13 6 Beechwood 35 32 Alt-Yr-Yn 3 6 Caerleon 20 29 Beechwood 5 5 Gaer 60 27 Tredegar Park 6 4 Shaftsbury 29 25 Gaer 4 3 Marshfield 22 19 Rogerstone 1 3 Malpas 22 18 Langstone 5 2 Graig 19 10 Graig 1 2 Rogerstone 16 10 St Julians 8 1 Llanwern 5 9 Llanwern 8 0 Langstone 5 3 Grand Total 203 168 Grand Total 989 732 Analysis Indicator All deliberate fires – this indicator shows the quarterly volume of deliberate fires in Newport as recorded by South Wales Fire and Rescue Service. A trend line has been added to smooth out quarterly variations.

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Deliberate primary and secondary fires by ward – this data breaks down deliberate fires by primary and secondary type. It measures the change in the 12 months to September 2011 compared to the previous 12 months. The data also shows deliberate primary and secondary fires by ward and identifies wards where an increase has occurred in the 12 months to September 2011 compared with the previous 12 months.

Currently awaiting information for 2012.

Data trend The overall trend for the number of deliberate fires since 2009/10 is downwards. The same downward trend can be seen across all deliberate fire types as well as police recorded arson.

However, within the overall downward trend there are pockets of increases, which are shown in the ward data. Pill and Caerleon wards have both seen increases in primary and secondary fires. Some of the fires in Caerleon can be attributed to the Caerleon side of St Julians Park. The increase in Pill is particularly noticeable. The deliberate primary fires in Pill are split between vehicle and property fires (11 vehicle fires and 12 property fires). During the same period only 15 fires in Pill were reported to the police – 5 vehicle fires and 6 property fires (the other fires that were reported to the police were deliberate secondary fires). Victoria and St Julians wards have both seen increases in deliberate secondary fires.

A number of hotspot areas are identified across the city. The increase in Victoria ward is centred around the hotspot at the junction between Wharf Rd and Corporation Rd. The exact location of the fires may be predominantly under George Street Bridge. The increase in St Julians appears to be along Herbert Road near the river bank, and also around the Old Barn estate / St Julians Comprehensive School. The following deliberate secondary fire hotspots have been identified:  Duffryn Estate  Junction of Wharf Rd / Corporation Road  Libeneth Rd / Lime Crescent in Somerton  Ringland Community Centre / Recreation Ground

Secondary fires are grassland or refuse fires. The hotspots do not necessarily mean an increase in deliberate fires, but they do indicate a concentration around a particular geographic area. Ringland for example has a hotspot around the community centre and recreation ground, but at the same time there has been a noticeable decrease in such fires. Two hotspots, Duffryn Estate in Tredegar ward and Libeneth Rd / Lime Crescent in the Somerton area, were identified in the previous analysis and it is likely that further targeted intervention will be required to tackle the problem in these two area.

What is driving the trend? The increase in secondary fires during the months of March and April are directly linked to youths deliberately setting fire to grass, gorse and heather leading up to and over the Easter period (Duffryn/Ringland/Lliswerry).

The increase in secondary fires in the Wharf Road/ Corporation Road area may be as a direct result of homeless/drug dependant individuals congregating in that area.

Libenarth Road/Lime Crescent and Broadmead Park have caused the fire service and police issues for the past two years during October and November resulting in an increase in deliberate fire setting and two attacks on fire crews.

Current initiatives In 2010/11, the fire service and police attended various schools in the Newport area highlighting the issue’s

200 this ASB behaviour causes for the fire service, police, wildlife and communities. A significant reduction in deliberate fires ensued following this intervention (Duffryn/Ringland/Lliswerry).

An increased fire service and police presence in this area has seen a slight decline on previous year.

A newspaper article (South Wales Argus) increased presence of fire service and police during the lead up to Halloween/Bonfire night. Removal of combustible material from the area (Registered Social Landlord (RSL), Newport City Council).

Areas of development  To target all schools in Newport and youth centres prior to the Easter break highlighting this problem. A collective approach from fire service, police, RSL and youth services to further reduce this number in 2012.  A combined partnership approach aimed at removal of combustible material from under George Street Bridge and disruption to those who congregate in this area.  An organised campaign targeting the youths in these areas. Highlight tenancy issues to parents in these areas should their children be caught setting fires and attacking fire crews. Other Factors Emerging issues to consider going forward:  Grassfires leading up to Easter  Increase in deliberate fires leading up to Halloween and Bonfire night  Increase in primary fires in the Pill area

Examples of good practice:  The action plan incorporating the South Wales Argus, removal of combustible material in Broadmead Park worked very well  Joint approach to reduce secondary fires worked well Data Development None identified.

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Public Confidence

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Public confidence levels (Gwent only) Number of people who agree the police and local public services are Data Set (Population Indicator) successfully dealing with crime and ASB in their local area (public confidence levels in Newport) Number of people who feel safe in their local area British Crime Survey Data Source Involve Newport Citizens Panel Survey

Annual British Crime Survey Public Confidence results (Percentage of respondents answering ‘strongly agree’ or ‘tend to agree’ when asked ‘Taking everything into account I have confidence in the police in this area’.)

80.0%

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0% Percentage of respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing 10.0%

0.0% 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Gwent 38.6% 60.1% 64.2% 61.8% National 52.0% 66.6% 68.6% 71.6%

Police and council dealing with crime/ASB (agree) - Gwent

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Number of people who agree that the police and other local public services are successfully dealing with crime and anti-social behaviour in your local area

58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% May 2011 August 2011 January 2012 November April 2013

Newport 48.3% 53.4% 49.9% 48.8% 56.4%

Percentage of people who feel safe in their local area

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% November May 2011 August 2011 January 2012 April 2013 2012

Day 88.4% 88.7% 95.2% 91.9% 93.7% Night 63.8% 63.8% 72.6% 61.1% 70.6%

Analysis Indicator Public confidence levels (Gwent only) – this data shows the results of the British Crime Survey (BCS) public confidence question. BCS is carried out at a Gwent level and results for Newport are not available. There is no evidence to suggest that Newport is significantly different to the Gwent result, but invariably there is variation across police forces.

Public confidence (Newport) - this data shows the percentage of people who agree or disagree the police and local public services are successfully dealing with crime and anti-social behaviour in their local area. The data is obtained from the Involve Newport citizen’s panel survey.

Number of people who feel safe in their local area – this data shows the percentage of people who report feeing safe in their local area and the city centre during the day and night time. The data is obtained from the Involve Newport citizen’s panel survey.

Data trend Public confidence (Gwent) Current survey results indicate that public confidence in Gwent Police and the five local authorities in the year ending September 2012 stands at 52.2%. Information received from the Involve Newport Citizens Panel has been ad hoc over the last 12 months, however the latest data for 2013 indicates a confidence level of 56% which has increased compared to previous surveys.

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What is driving the trend? Around 62% of all crime is unreported to the police, but this varies depending on the type of crime. The main reason for not reporting crime is because the matter is trivial or it has been dealt with privately. Residents taking the lead on dealing with trivial matters locally or at a community level is a model that is well recognised and encouraged, and where this occurs there will always be a gap between reported crime and BCS crime. This should not be a cause for concern and often little action is required other than to encourage local communities and neighbourhoods to take the lead on local issues that can be resolved between individuals. The main concern is where individuals have developed a high level of tolerance towards behaviour that really should not be tolerated.

Current initiatives Increased visibility and problem solving has been ongoing in the city centre.

Areas of development Where police and partner organisations can make a difference is when victims feel unable to report a crime when they should be reporting it. Fear of reprisal, fear or dislike of the police and “tried to report it but police not interested” are often the main barriers to reporting. This issue needs to be addressed to ensure people are confident they can report a crime when necessary.

Communicating the decrease in recorded crime and increasing public confidence needs to be managed.

Increased multi agency co operation and activity in the exchange of low level community intelligence may assist in improving public confidence in all agencies responses to community problems. Other Factors None. Data Development Data in relation to public confidence and the reason for any trends is limited. Further work and analysis must be considered to gain a better understanding of this issue.

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Road Safety

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Annual Road Traffic Collisions (RTC) injury or death rate per 1,000 Data Set (Population Indicator) population Welsh Government Data Source Gwent Police

Analysis Indicator This indicator shows the annual RTC (death, injury and minor injury) rate per 1,000 population and compares Newport with the Wales average. The data is obtained from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Motorway incidents have also been included in the data series. This data series differs from the one used in last years UNA in that the previous indicator measured casualty rates and this current one measures RTC incident rates. On average there are about 1.4 casualties per incident.

Data trend The volume of RTC for both damage only and injury show a decrease over the medium to long term. However the RTC (injuries) show a recent quarterly increase between quarter 1 and quarter 2 2012/13

205 from 70 to 99 incidents. This was the highest quarterly rate since the end of 2009.

What is driving the trend? No specific new initiatives or factors have been identified that account for the lower than Wales average trends around road safety. Newport has been involved in numerous road safety initiatives over a number of years that may have been instrumental in reducing the number of accidents.

Current initiatives  PLAS Plus Cymru, subsidised by the Welsh Government and with a good success rate, could be promoted amongst young drivers  Youth Offending Service (YOS) motor projects, and fire service projects  OPTIONS seatbelt initiative that aims to educate not just prosecute drivers for failing to wear a seatbelt  Local speed awareness signs and speed enforcement by Neighbourhood Policing Team (NPT) officers  Capita Symonds motorcycle riding lessons, kerbcraft training at primary schools, speed awareness campaigns at primary schools in conjunction with NPT’s, cycling proficiency schemes, etc  South Wales Fire Service has a motorcycle initiative supported by the Institute of Advanced Motorists (IAM) which can be offered to our mature target group

Areas of development School related incidents, including parking problems which escalate to community problems as well as danger to young children’s welfare.

An increase in use in Newport of the OPTIONS seatbelt initiative may assist in further injury reductions. Other Factors There are no significant factors that have been identified that may be specifically related to lower than Wales average of RTC’s however contributory factors to on going reported collisions may include:  Off road bikes  Horses  School gate parking drop off/pick up- a priority for all in Newport  Mobile phone use  Speeding on estates and minor roads  Warning / awareness signage indicating changing / new layouts of junctions Data Development There is no available pedestrian or cyclist related analysis.

Mapping of “damage only” incidents may assist in identifying potential “school run” routes that have high levels of RTC incidents.

Cross referencing and joint analysis of Police and Fire data may assist with identifying problem locations and assist in achieving further reductions.

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Hate Crime

Single Integrated Plan Outcome People in Newport live in a safe and cohesive community Data Set (Population Indicator) Annual police reported hate crime per 1,000 population Data Source Gwent Police

Note: National Hate Crime data has previously been published by ACPO and is available from http://report-it.org.uk/hate_crime_data The 2011/12 data is the first data set to be published by the Home Office In addition to this consistency across the time series has been difficult to maintain due to a number of reviews of Hate Crime data and some resulting re-grading of certain crimes. In view of this please treat the above time serious with caution and as an indicator only. The most recent data for 2011/12 is more robust and can be considered as a reliable comparator between the level of Hate crime in Newport and the broader level across Wales.

Analysis Indicator Numbers of recorded hate crime incidents have remained constant in2010/11 and 2011/12. The thematic map shows the relative density of combined hate crime and hate incidents by Lower Supper Output Area (LSOA). It indicates that there are two high density LSOAs and two medium high density areas. One noticeable feature of this map is that two of the most ethnically diverse areas of Newport (Pill and Maindee) do not stand out as areas of high density hate crime. The reason for this could either be better community cohesion in areas of ethnic diversity or lower levels of reporting hate crime.

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Data trend The rate of hate crime in Newport has been, and continues to remain above the Wales average. The most recent data appears to show that Newport is moving closer to the national average, but due to the highlighted consistency, it is not possible to interpret this with any degree of certainty. It would be advisable to wait until the 2012/13 hate crime data is published before making any inferences.

The most recent data shows that there has been a year on year increase from 99 in 2010/11 up to 104 in 2011/12. The data above is showing a decrease, but this is due to reasons that have been highlighted in the note attached to the graph.

Just over 70% of all hate crime takes place in five wards. These are Stow Hill, Lliswerry, Pill, Victoria, Alway and Ringland. The data does not quite reflect this because it is based on crimes per 1,000 residents, rather than actual volume. Tredegar Park appears in the top five based on rate per 1,000, but the actual volume of hate crime in this ward is lower than several other wards (currently standing at 3 crimes between April to October 2012). Most of the hate crime in Newport over the last 12 months has been reported in the Stow Hill ward. This is predominantly linked to the city centre, and may not therefore reflect any residential hate crime. The two wards with the highest volume of hate crime outside the city centre are Pill and Victoria. These two wards have the highest levels of ethnic diversity in Newport and therefore the hate crime is likely to reflect some underlying community tensions in these areas.

Hate Crime has been analysed by the type of hate that is being exhibited. The most recent data for 2011/12 shows that racial hate crime has decreased year on year from 90 down to 85. The two types of hate crime that have increased are Disability Hate Crime (up from zero to 3) and Homophobic Hate Crime (up from 9 to 12).

What is driving the trend? Although race and religiously motivated hate crime feature highly in the reported crime figures, reports such as the Equality and Human Rights Commission’s “Hidden in Plain Sight – Inquiry into disability related hate crime” state that disability related hate crime is under reported. Local community groups such as Newport People First identify a need for people with learning disabilities to report and get help. Occasionally, localised matters such as proposals for gypsy / traveller sites or groups of new arrivals in Newport can cause a public reaction which negatively affects certain sections of society. These matters may not be consistent but they can be serious and require a high level, multi-agency response. Available data from the Hate Crime Forum supports that as they show that there was a monthly spike in third party reported hate crime (13 reports compared to a monthly average of 4) at the same time as local protests against a proposed gypsy / traveller site.

Current initiatives A Case Handling Group has been established to facilitate a multi Agency approach to supporting the victims of Hate and to ensure problems are dealt with effectively.

Launch of three ‘Talk About It ‘centres for people with learning disabilities. These centres provide a number of services, one of which includes the ability to report hate crime using an easy to read reporting forms and people are trained to deal with issues.

A local hate crime website with a reporting facility that informs people and allows them to report on-line, confidentially if they prefer. It is also available for professionals to use when recording third party incidents. At present most cases are reported directly to the police or other agency and the web facility needs to be promoted so that a greater number of incidents are recorded and dealt with.

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Areas of development Opportunities for development include:  Better multi-agency support around schools and communities - schools are trialling a new recording system for prejudice based bullying across not only race and religion but all protected characteristics. Education services, youth services and other voluntary and public bodies can then address not only individual instances but any emerging themes.  Need for case handling support e.g. to call and organise multi agency meetings. This may be covered by the development of web based conference call facility for agencies to records actions and contact each other so full information is available in real time.  Greater awareness and promotion of the confidential reporting system.  ‘Talk About it Centres’ have already been mentioned in the initiatives section above. It has been suggested that these are not being as effectively as they could be in terms of reporting Hate Crime and the role of these centres in relation to Hate Crime needs to be re-emphasised. Other Factors Gwent Police hold data on hate incidents as well as hate crimes which could be considered. The definition of a hate incident is wider, taking in less severe incidents and covering a greater number of protected characteristics covered that those for hate crime e.g. covering gender and age. Data Development The annual hate crime data series is fairly poor quality:  National data only exists for two consecutive years and a minimum of three is needed to make any meaningful assessment  National data for Gwent Police appears to be inconsistent with Gwent Police data and these inconsistencies will need to be looked into before any reliability can be placed on national comparisons  A proxy indicator that only looks at religiously and racially motivated crimes may be an acceptable alternative (87.6% of all hate crime is religious or race motivated)  Anecdotal evidence and the Equality and Human Rights’ Commission’s research on disability related hate crime indicate that certain forms of hate crime are under recorded. As such religious and racially motivated hate crimes may be proportionally over represented and not as suitable as an acceptable alternative

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Newport is a Distinctive and Vibrant City (City Centre)

Standing at the gateway between England and Wales, Newport covers a geographical area of just over 73.5 square miles and is a vibrant, forward-thinking city steeped in a rich industrial heritage. In spite of the tough economic climate facing the city and the UK as a whole, Newport continues to undergo some of the most far-reaching changes seen in the locality during the last 100 years and heralds the newest and perhaps most exciting chapter in the city’s history.

Newport has a distinctive role as a city and the aim is to revive the city centre and the surrounding districts to make it a more sustainable city where people can live, work and visit. The image of Newport has suffered in recent years and work is underway to increase community confidence and to encourage people in Newport to feel good about the city and to be proud of where they live.

Newport is undergoing seismic change as infrastructure and development opportunities are being recognised across the city. There are currently a number of key initiatives shaping Newport with the intention of increasing Newport’s position nationally and globally while encouraging a culture of innovation and more visitors to the city. Current data shows that people’s perceptions of Newport are fairly positive and that Newport is considered to be a good place to live. This can be attributed to a number of factors including city centre redevelopment, new sports venues and facilities, new transport infrastructures, new-build schools and a host of festivals and events.

Although footfall within the city centre has shown a decline in recent years, more recent data shows footfall has started to improve. The decline in footfall can be attributed to a number of factors including more and more shops opting to conduct their business via designated shopping areas and retail parks outside of the city centre. However, a number of new initiatives have been introduced aimed at attracting more people into the city centre including city centre events, the opening of the University city centre campus and an improved transport infrastructure. In addition, the opening of the Information Station has increased the number of people working in the city centre, and the improved Rodney Parade stadium has attracted more sports visitors.

Newport continues to maintain high quality leisure facilities and attracts increased attendance at sporting events and fixtures. The new development at Rodney Parade means the city centre now hosts both successful rugby and football events. There are a number of other key sporting fixtures held within the city including speedway, boxing and martial arts, and cycling all of which attract people to the city.

Newport boasts the highest density of jobs in Wales outside the capital, and the employment sector has a focus on managerial and other professional roles which is in turn reflected in the above average workplace earnings seen in Newport, meaning that there is an attractive jobs market for people willing to travel to the city to access employment. Coupled with improved transport infrastructure, new railway station and superior digital access Newport is well positioned and offers a viable business destination and despite the current recession, Newport still has much to offer to the employment market.

The key issues for Newport are therefore:  Improving the image of the city and the city centre, and to take forward Newport’s status as a ‘Smart and Connected’ city, with a focus on technology, sport and culture  Driving forward the regeneration programme in order to establish Newport as an attractive shopping, leisure and tourist destination  Maintaining high quality leisure facilities and raising the profile of city events and attractions  Improvements to transport infrastructure and connectivity to encourage visitors and investment

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Perception of Newport

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport is a distinctive and vibrant city Percentage of people that are proud to come from Newport Percentage of people who consider Newport to be a good place to live Data Set (Population Indicator) Percentage of people who consider Newport is becoming a better place to live Data Source Involve Newport Citizens Panel survey, December 2012

Perception of Newport

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% % of people that are proud they % people who consider Newport % people who consider Newport come from Newport to be good place to live is becoming a better place to live

2012 33% 43% 25%

Analysis Indicator These indicators measure the general public’s perceptions of their pride in Newport, whether Newport is a good place to live and whether Newport is becoming a better place to live. Statistical data has been collected via the city’s Involve Newport Citizens Panel survey. The latest data available is from the survey issued in December 2012.

This indicator should be considered alongside City Centre Safety, City Centre Competitiveness and City Centre Footfall.

Data trend Over a third of residents that responded to the survey stated that they are proud that they come from Newport, and almost half of respondents agreed that Newport is a good place to live. However, only a quarter of respondents agreed that Newport is becoming a better place to live. As the data for these measures has previously been collected sporadically through different sources there is no true comparative data available. Comparative data will be available in future through regular Involve Newport Citizens Panel surveys.

What is driving the trend? Focus group discussions in 2010 (facilitated by Beaufort Research on behalf of Newport Unlimited) included a focus on the positive and negative aspects of the city; this provides some insight as to the direction of these perceptions. These focus group sessions included young people, older families and younger families and highlighted a number of key drivers that may reveal the basis for these perception levels. Some of the

211 emerging negative perceptions about Newport that were recorded during focus group discussions included: the number of shop closures, parking, lack of restaurants, temporary ‘efforts’ for the Ryder Cup, levels of anti-social behaviour, lack of activities for younger people and levels of worklessness in the city.

Positive aspects that residents indicated during focus group sessions included: countryside, lower costs of living, choice of leisure facilities, empty shops project, diversity of the local population, educational standards, convenient location, potential for change and the city’s heritage.

Current initiatives A number of key initiatives are in place to ensure regeneration of the city is a key priority and encourage more people to feel positive about living and working in Newport. These include:  Queensberry are continuing to make progress with the new Friars Walk development in the city centre and have agreed terms with a number of key occupiers  Work has also begun on the new Capital Centre development which will see Admiral Insurance bring 1200 jobs to the city centre  A number of successful schemes will continue throughout 2013 including Big Splash and Newport Food Festival  Significant city centre public realm improvements were completed during 2012/13 and the restoration of Newport Market is expected to be completed shortly  Improved transport infrastructure including a new train station with platform improvements, a new scheme is in place reintroducing buses to High Street, and the new North Stand of the bus station is currently under construction  A new cycle path infrastructure has been created, creating cycle way linkages across the city  BelleVue Park and Tredegar House have achieved Green Flag status (Tredegar House is now managed by the National Trust, another positive initiative that will encourage more visitors to the city)  The city now boasts an array of top class sporting venues and facilities, including the Velodrome, Football Association of Wales’ (FAW) Centre of Excellence and Rodney Parade  A key Buildings Scheme continues to assist property owners in the Newport conservation area and beyond and aims to renovate properties to a high standard  Increasing business start up loans to attract businesses to the city

All of these initiatives, along with work being undertaken to improve community safety, community cohesion, employment and education opportunities, leisure facilities and business presence, all aim to have a positive impact on making the city a better place to live, work and visit.

Areas of development To continue to ensure that city centre redevelopment and other key initiatives across the city are continued with support and ongoing development is evident; to continue to improve on all current programmes while encouraging new and effective city-wide schemes and initiatives.

To take forward Newport’s status as a ‘Smart and Connected’ city, with a focus on technology, sport and culture. Other Factors Current economic climate may account for negative perceptions, including worklessness and lack of business and other development. It is likely that the raft of regeneration programmes and other key initiatives will see positive perception levels among Newport’s residents increase. Data Development More frequent/regular collection of perception based data will enable future comparisons to be possible.

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City Centre Competitiveness

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport is a distinctive and vibrant city Local UK competitiveness index score Data Set (Population Indicator) City centre competitiveness Data Source Higgins Index 2010

Analysis Indicator These measures represent a benchmarking of the competitiveness of the UK’s regions and localities. Competitiveness is considered to consist of the capability of an economy to attract and maintain firms with stable or rising market shares in an activity, while maintaining stable or increasing standards of living for those who participate in it. It is calculated using a variety of sources, such as business demographics, skills availability, gross value added (GVA), and economic activity.

This indicator should be considered alongside the Centre for Cities Annual Outlook Report 2013. The ‘Cities Outlook’ is the authoritative economic index of the 64 largest cities and towns in the UK. The findings this year reinforce the importance of skills, good transport and broadband connections and a good industry base to economically successful cities.

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Data trend & What is driving the trend? The most recent data available is for 2010. The data in the first graph shows that Newport remains well above the Wales average in terms of economic competitiveness. We can also see that Newport’s competitiveness has weathered the economic downturn more favourably than is the norm in Wales, with a marked decrease in the national average index score between 2008 and 2009. Analysis of the wider Index also reveals that many comparable English authorities are seen to be less competitive than Newport. Newport’s competitiveness score is boosted due to the high number of knowledge-based companies active in the Newport and Monmouthshire region, which in turn contributes to a top quartile status amongst UK local authorities in terms of GVA, the economic measure of the value of goods and services produced in the area.

Despite the relatively competitive status of Newport amongst other Welsh authority areas, Wales remains the least competitive region by far in comparison to the rest of the UK. Four Welsh local authorities appear in the bottom five most competitive localities and six in the top twenty-five. Three of these are in the former Gwent region, illustrating Newport’s importance to the south east region and to Wales as a whole. Whilst Newport measures poorly in terms of the whole UK, it remains a key locality in terms of boosting the relatively low competitiveness of Wales. In 2013, Centre for Cities placed Newport in the top ten of its list of UK cities and large towns when rating each for growth in its private sector relative to its public sector. Likewise, the 2013 Santander UK Town and City Index noted that Newport performed well in terms of sectoral diversity.

Current initiatives Increasing Newport’s competitiveness score is dependent on several factors, as indicated in the various sources that contribute. This data should therefore be critically considered at the levels of the constituent indicators on skills, employment, businesses, and productivity.

Newport has long been identified as suffering from a poor image, with particular focus on the poor city centre offer. The regeneration of the city centre has continued apace in the wake of the successful hosting of the Ryder Cup. Boasting an award-winning new university campus and modern railway station, Newport’s pursuit of a new mixed use retail, food and leisure development is the next high-profile step in an ambitious vision that will have a knock-on effect of increasing our competitiveness against other localities.

In May 2013, a new task force was set up to look at the regeneration on Newport city centre. The task force will study and develop a practical strategy regarding an economic regeneration attempt in the short to medium term, and will issue its first report within six months. The taskforce will examine ways to bring business life back into the centre of the city.

Areas of development The more challenging aspects are the growth of high-level skills and qualifications and encouraging entrepreneurship – Newport’s competitiveness currently suffers as a result of poor performance against these indicators. Business registrations have been targeted by Newport City Council through business loan schemes.

Growth in the skills and knowledge economy, attracting more high-end business to Newport, with a focus on technology, sport and culture. Other Factors Constituent factors of the Competitiveness Index. Centre for Cities Outlook Report 2013 Data Development Further information is required regarding the reasons that people visit and shop in Newport and other areas. Establish the impact of the new University campus on the city centre.

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City Centre Footfall

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport is a distinctive and vibrant city Data Set (Population Indicator) City centre footfall Data Source Newport City Council (Springboard)

City Centre Footfall

14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Newport 11,546,906 9,930,306 8,746,834 8,939,472 8,812,347

Analysis Indicator City centre footfall is recorded using a Springboard counter that measures the number of ‘movements’ past a set location and is recognised as the most accurate way of measuring footfall in shopping areas. The footfall counter is located centrally within the pedestrianised area of Commercial Street at no. 161 to 163 Commercial Street. An additional counter is now installed and located at Westgate Square/Bridge Street.

Data trend & What is driving the trend? The level of footfall dropped dramatically between 2007 and 2010 and this can be attributed to a number of factors including the impact of the wider economic downturn, the lack of quality and variety of shopping opportunities, the closure of shops, restricted opening times and the general appearance of the city centre.

However, since August 2011 the level of footfall has increased compared to previous years and remains relatively static. This can be attributed to a number of new initiatives aimed at attracting more people into the city centre including city centre events, the opening of the University city centre campus and an improved transport infrastructure. In addition, the opening of the Information Station has increased the number of people working in the city centre, and the improved Rodney Parade stadium has attracted more sports visitors.

In future, the new mixed use shopping and leisure developments and the relocation of businesses based in the city centre should increase the level of footfall.

Current initiatives Much work has taken place and continues to do so to promote and market the city as a vibrant and cultural destination including city dressing, enhancement of the physical environment, calendar of events, city centre ‘health check’, the Big Splash and Newport Food Festival.

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Queensberry are continuing to make progress with the new Friars Walk development in the city centre and have agreed terms with a number of key occupiers. Work has also begun on the new Capital Centre development which will see Admiral Insurance bring 1200 jobs to the city centre.

Improved transport infrastructure including a new train station with platform improvements, a new scheme is in place reintroducing buses to High Street, and the new North Stand of the bus station is currently under construction. Significant city centre public realm improvements were completed during 2012/13 and the restoration of Newport Market is expected to be completed shortly.

Regular retailer and trader meetings continue, with a positive response to these with many retailers keen for involvement to help improve their city.

Areas of development There are a number of future plans in place to revitalise the city centre and encourage more visitors. This includes the Friars Walk shopping centre due to be completed in 2015, the Capital Centre due to be completed in 2014, and the restoration of the historic Indoor Market. Current initiatives are also ongoing including city dressing, enhancement of the physical environment and a calendar of events. Partners will continue to work on the local regeneration programme across the city to improve the appeal of the city centre. Other Factors The situation in other similar cities and towns should be considered in conjunction with the data for Newport to see whether the general trend is similar as a result of the current economic climate rather than factors attributed solely to Newport’s issues. Data Development The city centre team have worked with Springboard to introduce an additional footfall counter in the Westgate Square area of the city. This is likely to lead to a more accurate representation of the footfall as it is believed that the shoppers seem to have migrated more towards this end of the city centre.

Establish the reasons why people shop in the city centre and why people go elsewhere, and the numbers of local people who go to neighbouring shopping areas.

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City Centre Safety

Single Integrated Plan Outcome Newport is a distinctive and vibrant city Quarterly crime rate in Newport city centre Data Set (Population Indicator) Quarterly anti-social behaviour (ASB) rate in Newport city centre Number of people who feel safe in the city centre Crime - Gwent Police Data Source ASB - Newport City Council and Gwent Police Involve Newport Citizens Panel

Quarterly Crime and ASB in Newport City Centre

800 Crime 700 ASB

600

500

400

300 Monthly Monthly Volume

200

100

Month / Year

Percentage of people who feel safe in the city centre

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% November May 2011 August 2011 January 2012 April 2013 2012

Day 79.6% 77.9% 81.4% 77.6% 76.8% Night 22.1% 21.0% 25.8% 29.2% 23.3%

Analysis Indicator Quarterly crime and ASB in Newport city centre – this is the level of crime and ASB in the city centre. The majority of ASB and crime in the city centre occurs during the night time economy (NTE) hours

Number of people who feel safe in the city centre – this is the number of people who reported feeling safe in the city centre during the day and night. This information is taken from the Involve Newport Citizens

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Panel. The surveys are generally issued on a quarterly basis, however were less frequent during 2012. The Panel was refreshed in 2010 so only data since then is included for comparison purposes.

Data trend & What is driving the trend? Crime and ASB in the city centre In the 12 months to September 2012 there has been a reduction in city centre crime from 2,499 to 1,987 (20.5%). Quarter 2 2012/13 has seen an increase in both city centre crime and ASB this rise needs to be monitored in quarter 3 and quarter 4 and further consideration given to closer analysis.

In the 12 months to September 2012 there has been a reduction in city centre ASB from 1,466 to 972 (33.7%). Year to Date (April – October 2012) shoplifting in the city centre has decreased from 297 to 282 (5%). Although there has been an overall Year to Date (April – October 2012) decrease in ASB of 31%, almost all of that has come from a reduction in Night Time Economy ASB. During the Day Time hours the city centre has seen a much smaller reduction in ASB from 272 down to 262 (3.7%).

Location hotspots in the city centre are very similar to previous years. Initial analysis shows that Year to Date the Bus Station has had the highest volume of crime and ASB, followed by a number of shops, licensed premises and fast food outlets that feature regularly in the weekly city centre reports.

City centre perception The results show that the majority of residents feel safe in the city during the day time. However, the number of people who feel safe in the city centre during the night time is low. The latest information available indicates that in April 2013, 77% of respondents felt safe in the city centre during the day which is a decrease on previous months. However, during the night time this figure was much lower at 23%. Unfortunately, as the data for this measure has previously been collected sporadically through different sources there is no true comparative data available. Comparative data will be available in future through regular Involve Newport Citizens Panel surveys.

In the most recent survey, respondents were asked how often they visited the city centre. The majority of responses show that most people visit the city centre at least once a week during the day time. However, visits to the city centre at night are much less frequent.

Both sets of data show that people feel less safe in the city centre at night time. This may be based on people’s actual experience or the negative perceptions of the night time economy.

Current initiatives Recommendations in relation to management and communications have started to impact on crime and ASB levels. This, along with other initiatives, has encouraged organisations to work more closely together to tackle the issues in the city centre. This work needs to be monitored and reviewed to ensure progress continues and consideration is given to work taking place across Wales and the UK.

Increased cohesion driven by members of the Business Crime Partnership as well as between security staff and other retailers supported by police patrols has assisted in reducing crime and increasing detections.

Partners involved in dealing with the city centre continue to hold a weekly briefing and de briefing meeting supported by a weekly city centre debrief report.

Gwent Police have established a City Safe team to deal with the night time economy in the city centre on a Friday and Saturday night. This is supported by a weekly licensing briefing report. The police have established a dedicated city centre day time team to ensure visibility in the city centre.

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Other initiatives to be considered include the Purple Flag scheme, Safer City Centre/business crime award (awarded 2012), and City Centre Ambassadors to meet and greet.

Areas of development Improving cohesion by increased provision of information and intelligence to security and door staff, consider using the CCTV monitoring station as a silver command post for all events and weekends in the city centre.

Increasing or adopting coverage of major roads and arteries by the CCTV monitoring station and making it into a multi agency operations room for the city, making fuller and more comprehensive use of the facilities.

The low number of residents using the city centre at night-time may be a reflection of the limited facilities that are available in the city centre during the evening. This is being addressed as part of the city centre redevelopment plans and should result in more local people using the city centre at night. This in turn should have a positive impact on people’s attitudes and perceptions about the city centre. Consideration needs to be given to the current mix and lack of early evening and night time economy markets.

Increased activity in relation to exchange and provision of information and intelligence with traders, licensees and security staff.

Consider the use of Design Out Crime Principles to provide safe (safer) zones and journeys home and around the city at all times of the day and night.

To target locations and address issues through a range and mix of increased partnership visibility, surveillance and traffic management.

Consider how to maintain multi agency partnership work on the city centre. Other Factors Emerging and current issues include:  A large number of service providers are concentrated in and around the city centre leading to a daily influx of people who are receiving treatment for offending, drug addition, alcohol addiction, etc. This has an impact on crime and ASB in the city centre and particularly along Lower Dock Street  The concentration of services will continue to grow with the introduction young person’s accommodation on Lower Dock Street  Cluster of Multiple Occupancy Housing around the city centre  Royal Gwent Hospital has emerged as a hotspot

Priority must be given to improving the city centre and making it a more attractive place to visit, both during the day and night time. This will have an impact on the number of people coming into the city centre, and also on crime and disorder through the ‘signal crime’ effect. Data Development Work needs to continue in relation to information held by Aneurin Bevan Health Board (ABHB) and its use in relation to reducing crime and ASB notably in support of targeting location offenders and victims. An additional indicator to consider would be: Crime by Crime Type and Premises.

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Additional Information

Sustainable Development

Sustainable development is the overarching policy framework which integrates social, economic and environment actions to achieve a common vision. It involves ensuring that all actions are economically, socially and environmentally sustainable and so contributes to overall community wellbeing now and in the future. It is about:  conserving our unique natural environment  reducing, reusing, and recycling the waste we produce  fairness and justice for everybody who lives in the city or comes here to visit  smarter public services that make the best use of public money  a happier, healthier Newport now, and for the generations to come

The Sustainable Development Bill will place a duty on organisations delivering public services to have sustainable development as their central organising principle. Sustainability lies at the heart of the Welsh Government’s agenda for Wales; it also lies at the heart of this legislative programme. Taken as a whole, it will promote the economic, social and environmental wellbeing and enhance people’s quality of life in Wales. It is about defining the long term development path for our nation. It means healthy, productive people; vibrant, inclusive communities; a diverse and resilient environment and an advanced and innovative economy.

The LSB is committed to continuing carbon reduction, making better use of resources, improving the natural environment, improving the health of the population and encouraging people to make their local community more sustainable.

Equalities and the Welsh Language

The LSB partnership is aware of their responsibility to promote equal opportunities and the Welsh language and will act in accordance with the Equality Act 2010, the Welsh Language Act 1993 and the Welsh Language (Wales) Measure 2011. In developing and implementing the Single Plan, LSB partners will work together to provide inclusive non-discriminatory services that can be targeted in communities where there is most need.

Equality Impact Assessment Prior to the development of the Single Plan an Equality Impact Assessment (EIA) was undertaken and additional EIAs will also be completed as necessary for any individual projects.

Equality Impact Assessments (EIA) are intended to improve the work of One Newport LSB by making sure it does not discriminate against any citizen, and that it promotes equality for all. An Equality Impact Assessment framework has been developed by Newport City Council. The system is based upon good practice and works across all equalities issues (including age, ethnicity, disability, gender, language, religion and belief, and sexual orientation).

When conducting an EIA, One Newport LSB can choose a strategy, policy, or project and look at its impact on people to minimise any potential discrimination. For example, when opening a new facility we would compare the experiences of disabled people with those of people who are not disabled in terms of accessibility to use the service. It involves analysing or anticipating the consequences of policies and

220 projects on people and making sure that any negative consequences are eliminated and opportunities for promoting equality are maximised. The EIA is carried out in stages as follows:  selecting a policy  gathering evidence  completing an assessment form evaluating the material  arriving at an action plan  implementing the action plan

Contact Details

For further information about this UNA, One Newport LSB and its work programme please contact: One Newport LSB Newport City Council HR, Policy and Performance Room 402w Telephone: 01633 656656 Civic Centre Email: [email protected] Newport NP20 4UR Website: http://onenewportlsb.newport.gov.uk

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