Appendix C: Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment 附錄C: 脆弱性及適應能力評估

Appendix C Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment CONTENTS 1 INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT 1 1.1 DEFINITION OF THE PROBLEM 1 1.2 SELECTION OF THE METHOD 2 1.3 TESTING THE METHOD 4 1.4 SELECTION OF SCENARIOS 4 1.5 ASSESSMENT OF BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS 11 1.6 ASSESSMENT OF AUTONOMOUS ADJUSTMENTS AND EVALUATION OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 12 2 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 13 2.1 CLIMATE CHANGE WITHIN A REGIONAL CONTEXT 13 2.2 CLIMATE CHANGE IN HONG KONG 15 2.3 UNCERTAINTIES IN CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE 28 2.4 SECTOR COVERAGE 32 2.5 HONG KONG CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 36 2.6 CLIMATE CHANGE IN HONG KONG – SECTORAL IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY 43 3 POTENTIAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND MEASURES 70 3.1 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 70 3.2 BARRIERS TO ADAPTATION 77 4 HONG KONG – EXTANT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY 82 4.1 INTRODUCTION 82 4.2 EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES IN HONG KONG 83 4.3 PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY IN HONG KONG 95 5 METHODOLOGY USED TO DEVELOP RECOMMENDATIONS FOR HONG KONG 98 5.1 ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLES FOR HONG KONG’S ADAPTIVE RESPONSE 98 5.2 CHECKLIST FOR POLICY MAKERS 100 5.3 PACE AND TIMESCALES FOR ADAPTATION ACTION 101 6 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR HONG KONG 108 6.1 INTRODUCTION 108 6.2 SECTORAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTIONS 108 6.3 CROSS-SECTORAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTIONS: RESEARCH ACTIVITIES 137 6.4 CROSS-SECTORAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTIONS: EDUCATION AND PUBLIC AWARENESS 141 6.5 CO-ORDINATION AND REVIEW 142 6.6 DECISION-MAKING IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY 142 7 REFERENCES 144 ANNEXES ANNEX A POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE CONSEQUENCES BY SECTOR ANNEX B REVIEW OF EXTANT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY IN HONG KONG BY SECTOR 1 INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT This section provides an overview of the current best practice regarding methodological approaches for assessing the potential impacts of future climate change and evaluating appropriate adaptation strategies and measures. It is primarily based on international literature including the UNFCCC User Manual (1), IPCC Technical Guidelines (2), the UNFCCC Handbook (3) and the UNEP Handbook (4). A review of the literature indicates that approaches are being continually developed to reflect current knowledge. Furthermore, there is no single preferred method as “methodologies, approaches and/or guidelines to be used in the V&A assessment will depend on the national circumstances… with respect to the availability of data, and technical, financial and human resources (1)”. The general framework for conducting a climate change impacts and adaptation analysis as defined by the UN and IPCC involves the following steps: • Definition of the problem; • Selection of the method; • Testing the method; • Selection of scenarios; • Definition of the environmental and socio-economic baseline; • Assessment of biophysical and socio-economic impacts; • Assessment of autonomous adjustments and evaluation of adaptation strategies. Each of these steps is explained in more detail in the following sections. 1.1 DEFINITION OF THE PROBLEM As presented in the IPCC Technical Guidelines, the UNFCCC Handbook and the UNEP Handbook, this involves asking the following questions: Table 1.1 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment Question Description In the Present Study Goals of the Study objectives • To characterise the impacts of climate change in assessment Hong Kong • To evaluate existing and recommend additional strategies and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION DEPARTMENT C - 1 Question Description In the Present Study Assessment Geographic boundary Hong Kong SAR boundary boundary Depth of the assessment Literature review of relevant studies published by Government departments, international and national authorities, and the scientific community Exposure unit Scope of the assessment The socio-economic and natural systems in Hong to be studied Kong Time frame Time horizon for study Around 18 months Time frame of Up to 2100 projections / impacts Timeframe of adaptation Up to 2030 strategies / measures 1.2 SELECTION OF THE METHOD Predicting future impacts is one of the major goals of climate change impact assessment. There is a wide range of different methods and approaches available, such as quantitative modelling, empirical study, expert judgement and experimentation, as well as stakeholder involvement. Since each of these has its own strengths and weaknesses, the use of a combination of approaches in different parts of the assessment or at different stages of the analysis is recommended by the UNEP Handbook. Geographic information systems and remote sensing are amongst other tools that may be also used. 1.2.1 Quantitative Models Where the variables can be expressed in quantitative terms and where feasible, the use of models is desirable to enable sensitivity analysis, for example, to be carried out. Climate impact studies often involve the use of biophysical models, socio-economic models and integrated system models. Many of the models are simple cause and effect models but the reality is a complex interactive system. This complexity is being addressed by an on going effort to develop integrated systems models. It is important to keep in mind that although the model results generated may look very precise, there are underlying assumptions in the climate change and socio-economic scenarios, in addition to those inherent in the models. As a result numerical quantitative data generated by these models should be treated as informed estimations rather than the definitive ‘answer’. Models that address only one sector or aspect of a system may simulate that sector or aspect well but may be unable to incorporate interactions from related sectors or other aspects of the system. For these reasons, the choice of models should be conducted by experienced modellers who have detailed foreknowledge of the problems likely to be encountered. Given the timeframe, scope and available data the present study has not undertaken any detailed quantitative modelling. However, this study serves as an important step in identifying the current knowledge gaps and ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION DEPARTMENT C - 2 uncertainties, and hence the areas where further more detailed research would be especially valuable in responding to climate change in Hong Kong. 1 .2.2 Empirical Studies Empirical observations of the interactions of climate and society and natural systems are commonly achieved through analogue methods, such as historical events, historical trends, and regional or spatial analogues of present climate. These enable questions to be asked about how stakeholders adapt or have adapted in the past. Case studies have been included in this study to illustrate the need for a holistic response in the event of an unexpected crisis, and to illustrate that such crises can have consequences for the broader economy. The IPCC notes that whilst the consequences of climate change will be greater in low income countries “no matter what the degree of preparedness is, projections suggest that some future extreme events will be catastrophic because of the unexpected intensity of the event and the underlying vulnerability of the affected population. The European (5) heatwave in 2003 and Hurricane Katrina are examples” . 1.2.3 Expert and stakeholder judgement and participation Expert judgement and opinions enable a relatively rapid assessment of the current state of knowledge concerning the likely impacts of climate change, especially in preliminary or pilot studies to assist with the design of such studies. Policy analysis may also incorporate decision-making support systems that combine dynamic simulation with expert judgement. In this vulnerability and adaptation assessment independent expert judgement has been utilised. For example, local and overseas health experts have been consulted to guide the analysis for human health, and engineers have provided support in areas including the built environment and infrastructure, as well as water resources. 1.2.4 Remote Sensing and GIS Data about features located on the earth’s surface is collected by remote sensing from aircraft and satellites, and is analysed to provide useful information. Remote sensing can very effectively be used in combination with Geographic Information System (GIS), which allows the analysis of geographically referenced data in complex ways. One of the main limitations to this method is that effective use of GIS requires substantial data sets, which for some features, often needs to be regularly updated. GIS has been applied in this climate change impact and vulnerability assessment to indicate areas of the territory that are more likely to be at risk in a changing climate and to illustrate the distribution of various features including infrastructure, population density and ecosystems across the Hong Kong SAR. ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION DEPARTMENT C - 3 1.3 TESTING THE METHOD The selection of the assessment methods should be tested in preparation for the main evaluation tasks. Feasibility studies, data acquisition and compilation, and model testing may be useful in evaluating the methods. This present vulnerability and adaptation assessment serves as a feasibility study to provide information on the effectiveness of alternative

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