Anum Fahim Dar
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Development of a Framework for Assessment of Water-Energy Demand and Supply in Energy Sector by Anum Fahim Dar A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering Management Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Alberta © Anum Fahim Dar, 2015 Abstract Water resource planning and management has become more challenging over the years. To make well-informed long-term system planning decisions, policy makers and resource managers need to fully comprehend the water-energy nexus. There is a scarcity of tools for integrated assessment of greenhouse gases and water footprints for various energy demand and supply scenarios. The overall aim of this research is to develop a framework to address this gap and use this developed framework for the Province of Alberta. The study includes a general overview of Alberta’s water resources (surface and ground water), a brief introduction to energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water allocation patterns for various demand sectors, and framework development of a model for Alberta’s major river basins. The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) software is used as a modeling tool in this study, and the timeframe considered is the 42-year period from 2009 to 2050. Based on current water, energy, and economic dynamics, different scenarios were developed for various sectors. The WEAP model evaluates the water demand and supply based on a sector-wise forecast. It analyzes the patterns of water demand and the effects on the health of the water resources for the future economic developments in the regions. Its integration with the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) model is also assessed. The LEAP-WEAP integrated scenarios for Alberta provide a customized water-energy analysis on the basis of river basins. The output results from the model provide insight into varying patterns of water demands for different sectors under several scenarios, the return flows and consumption, unmet demand, and reliability of the supply source to meet the future needs along with the level of GHG emissions. The model estimates that the percentage reduction of the total amount of water in the Athabasca River region is 9.27% (both surface and ground water resources inclusive) in 2050 if the oil ii sands expansion continues at the current water withdrawal level. The Bow River will undergo a 0.65% flow reduction, and the Peace River Basin will see smaller reductions in overall flow of 0.37%. The water return will drop with the increase in water-demanding activities over the forecast period till 2050. The integrated LEAP-WEAP results indicated that the in-situ is a less water intensive but more emissions intensive method of bitumen recovery than surface mining. In the integrated LEAP-WEAP power generation scenario, GHG emissions and water demand from 2009 to 2050 are reduced by around 50% and 65%, respectively. These different scenario outcomes can help the decision makers in understanding the water-energy nexus in a quantifiable way and to formulate policies or make strategic investment decisions towards sustainable development. The results also highlight the energy demand sectors that need attention because of their high GHG emissions and water demand. iii Acknowledgments I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr. Amit Kumar, for his guidance and support at each step of my research work. His insights, expertise and valuable suggestions helped in completion of my work. I would also like to express my gratitude to NSERC/Cenovus/Alberta Innovates Associate Industrial Research Chair in Energy and Environmental Systems Engineering and Cenovus Energy Endowed Chair in Environmental Engineering for providing funding for this project. I would also like to acknowledge Dr. Md Alam Hossain Mondal for reviewing and advising me in my research work. I am thankful to Astrid Blodgett for her editorial assistance. I especially thank Dr. Mahdi Vaezi for his help and support throughout my stay here in University of Alberta. Last but not the least; I would like to appreciate my colleagues in the Sustainable Energy Research Lab, specifically people at ring house # 3, for their continuous support, useful discussions and enjoyable parties to make an amiable research environment. I am greatly thankful to my parents and family for their encouragement and prayers without which it would not have been possible to conduct a successful research. iv Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ ix List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. xii List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. xv Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Sectorial water distribution in Canada – An overview ............................................. 1 1.1.2 Water network in Alberta – An overview ................................................................. 3 1.1.3 River basins ............................................................................................................. 10 1.1.3.1 North Saskatchewan River Basin ........................................................................ 11 1.1.3.2 Bow River Basin ................................................................................................. 11 1.1.3.3 Peace River Basin................................................................................................ 12 1.1.3.4 Athabasca River Basin ........................................................................................ 13 1.1.4 Energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Alberta – An overview .............. 13 1.2 Research rationale .......................................................................................................... 14 1.3 Objectives of the research .............................................................................................. 17 1.4 Overall methodology ...................................................................................................... 17 1.5 Limitations of the study.................................................................................................. 20 1.6 Organization of the thesis ............................................................................................... 21 Chapter 2: Development of Water Demand and Supply Model for Alberta’s River Basins 23 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 23 2.2 WEAP software – A modeling tool ............................................................................... 23 2.2.1 WEAP modeling methodology ............................................................................... 24 2.2.1.1 Schematic ............................................................................................................ 24 2.2.1.2 Data ..................................................................................................................... 25 2.2.1.3 Results ................................................................................................................. 26 2.2.1.4 Scenario explorer................................................................................................. 26 2.2.1.5 Notes.................................................................................................................... 26 2.3 Alberta – WEAP framework development .................................................................... 26 v 2.4 Supply and resources ...................................................................................................... 32 2.4.1 Framework development and input parameters ...................................................... 32 2.4.2 Assumptions ............................................................................................................ 34 2.5 Demand sectors ............................................................................................................. 35 2.5.1 Municipal sector...................................................................................................... 35 2.5.1.1 Framework development and input parameters .................................................. 35 2.5.1.2 Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 41 2.5.1.3 WEAP demand tree ............................................................................................. 41 2.5.2 Agriculture sector.................................................................................................... 43 2.5.2.1 Framework development and input parameters .................................................. 43 2.5.2.2 Assumptions .......................................................................................................