Vol. 56 (1) - January 2007 BulletinFeature articles | Interviews | News | Book reviews | Calendar www.wmo.int Socio-economic benefi ts of meteorological and hydrological services

Impact of climate change on sugar-cane production in Fiji 34 Climatological services and renewable energy 40 Climate and our cultural heritage 46 Weather forecasting in West Africa over the last 25 years 50

Evaluating Social and economic benefi ts of 8 Polar meteorology: agrometeorological meteorological and hydrological 15 understanding risk 30 services 23global impacts 5 The challenge today is to create and sustain effective partnerships between users and providers of weather, climate and water services and to fi nd new ways of delivering information that meet the growing expectations of users of those services. Bulletin The journal of the World Meteorological Contents Organization

Volume 56 (1) - January 2007 In this issue ...... 2

Secretary-General M. Jarraud Message from the Secretary-General on the occasion of World Deputy Secretary-General Hong Yan Meteorological Day 2007 ...... 5 Assistant Secretary-General J. Lengoasa Sustainable living—reducing risks and increasing opportunities . The WMO Bulletin is published quarterly by M. Jarraud ...... 9 (January, April, July, October) in English, French, Interview with Hon. Maria Mutagamba ...... 10 Russian and Spanish editions. Deriving societal and economic benefi ts from meteorological and Editor Hong Yan hydrological services ...... 15 Associate Editor Judith C.C. Torres Social and economic benefi ts of meteorological and hydrological Editorial board services—a regional overview ...... 23 Hong Yan (Chair) J. Torres (Secretary) Meteorological information for evaluating agrometeorological risk L. Barrie (atmospheric research and and uncertainty for agricultural marketing systems environment) by R.P. Motha and K.L. Menzie ...... 30 R. de Guzman (strategic planning) I. Draghici (education and training) Impact of climate change on sugar-cane production in Fiji, M. Golnaraghi (natural disasters) by J. Gawander ...... 34 J. Hayes (basic systems) A. Henderson-Sellers (climate research) The socio-economic benefi ts of climatological–services to the D. Hinsman (satellites) renewable energy sector, by S. Robles Gil ...... 40 G. Kortchev (applications) E. Manaenkova (policy, external relations) Climate data and services: preserving our cultural heritage . . . . 46 B. Nyenzi (climate) P. Taalas (capacity building and Weather forecasting in West Africa over the last 25 years, development, regional affairs) by Ernest A. Afi esimama ...... 50 A. Tyagi (water) Fifty years ago ...... 52

Subscription rates Recently published ...... 55 Surface mail Air mail 1 year CHF 60 CHF 85 News from the WMO Secretariat ...... 57 2 years CHF 110 CHF 150 3 years CHF 145 CHF 195 Calendar ...... 62 The World Meteorological Organization ...... 63 E-mail: [email protected] Members of the World Meteorological Organization ...... 64

Opinions expressed in signed articles or in News of WMO activities and recent events may be found in WMO’s newsletter advertisements appearing in the WMO Bulletin MeteoWorld (http://www.wmo.int/meteoworld), in the NEWS section on the WMO are the author’s or advertiser’s opinions and homepage (http://www.wmo.int/news/news.html) and on the Web pages of WMO do not necessarily refl ect those of WMO. The programmes via the WMO homepage (http://www.wmo.int). mention of specifi c companies or products in articles or advertisements does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which WMO Bulletin are not mentioned or advertised. Extracts from Communication and Public Affairs unsigned (or initialled) articles in the journal World Meteorological Organization (WMO) may be reproduced provided the customary 7bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: + 41 22 730 84 78 acknowledgement is made. Requests to publish signed articles (in part or in whole) should be Case postale No. 2300 Fax: + 41 22 730 80 24 addressed to the Editor. CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] InTitle this issue

If there were any doubt about climate service. Thus it is critical that users Owing to its high climatic variability, change, a visit to the Earth’s Poles have the tools and knowledge needed Africa faces serious water-security would dispel it. The impact of the to realize fully the benefi ts of forecasts challenges in the form of extreme Poles is not limited to high latitudes but and assessments. It is generally easy floods and droughts. Maria also affects the global climate system to understand the impact of extreme Mutagamba is Minister of State for with far- reaching implications for the weather on society, but it is much Water in Uganda and President of the entire land-ocean-atmosphere system more diffi cult to assess the impact African Ministers’ Council on Water. and human society. Understanding of forecasts on the decision-making In her interview for the WMO Bulletin, these global impacts is key to our process. In a collaborative article she underlines the need to sensitize ability to provide the tools to help “Deriving societal and economic politicians and decision-makers on society adapt. This is the theme of benefits from meteorological and the importance of meteorological World Meteorological Day 2007, which hydrological services”, the co-authors and hydrological data and products— will highlight the International Polar identify some of challenges and and the need to do so in a language Year (IPY) 2007-2008 and this issue limitations in the uptake of weather, they will understand. Ms Mutagamba carries a message from the Secretary- climate and water information and welcomes Madrid07 as an opportunity General on the occasion. recommend that, in the short-term, for dialogue between weather, climate much more attention be given to and water information and service This issue of the Bulletin highlights improving decision-making and providers and users. the societal and economic benefi ts decision-support tools. of weather, climate and water Food security is critical for all societies, information, which will be the focus of Madrid07 is another step towards this but developing and least developed the WMO International Conference – goal by bringing experts from a variety countries are particularly vulnerable Secure and Sustainable Living: Social of societal and economic sectors because of their high dependence on and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, together with providers of weather, agricultural production. Motha and Climate and Water Services to be climate and water services to explore Menzie highlight the importance of held in Madrid, Spain, 19-22 March ways to increase the benefi ts of these meteorological information for the 2007 (Madrid07). The Secretary- services. Conference sessions will evaluation of agrometeorological risk General introduces the overall theme be arranged to maximize participant and uncertainty for agricultural mar- of this issue and that of the Madrid dialogue and interaction. ket systems and the role of the World conference within today’s socio- Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) in economic and political context. Madrid07 builds on the recent WMO minimizing this risk. The WAOB uses Conference on Living with Climate weather, climate and remotely sensed The intrinsic value of weather, climate Variability and Change, which took information to analyse the impact of and water services is derived from the place in Espoo, Finland, in July 2006 global weather on crop production, use of this information in decision- and on ongoing regional societal determining the vulnerability of crops making, which improves societal and and economic benefit workshops, and markets worldwide. There are fi ve economic outcomes. Even if a forecast which are discussed in this issue. categories of risk: yield, production, is technically accurate, it is the user Madrid07 aims to identify specific price volatility, and income, which can or decision-maker who ultimately actions to improve the uptake of be mitigated by accurate, timely, con- determines the benefi t and, hence, the weather-, climate- and water-related sistent, objective and widely available value, of the weather, climate or water information by users. hydrometeorological information.

2 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 In a specifi c example of the impact challenging and technical and socio- forecasting in West Africa has devel- of climate on agricultural production, economic process that must involve oped over the last 25 years and how Gawander describes the sensitivity the cooperation of scientists in many daily and seasonal information has of Fiji’s sugar cane industry. Sugar disciplines, including climatologists, been used to improve agricultural cane is a major revenue earner meteorologists and hydrologists to productivity and water management in Fiji contributing up to 12 per advise and inform engineers, planners through National Meteorological cent of Gross Domestic Product and system operators. and Services and the African Cen- and employing 25 per cent of the tre of Meteorological Application for workforce. The industry is particularly Climate and weather information Development. susceptible to climate variability and features prominently in modern extreme weather events. While the building codes, but must also be Underlying each of these articles is relationships between the crop and the considered in the preservation of the recognition that weather, climate environmental conditions are known our ancient monuments. The article and water services exist to provide and mitigation is possible, the lack of “Climate data and services: preserving societal and economic benefi t. This accurate data locally currently limits our cultural heritage” highlights is most effective when the user of the the growers’ ability to anticipate and the activities of the World Heritage information is well informed and able adapt to environmental change. Committee to raise awareness of to apply the knowledge effectively. the risk of climate change on our Today we are paying more and more Renewable energy is an increasingly natural and cultural heritage, which attention to the application of weather, economically viable alternative to are irreplaceable sources of life and climate and water information. The fossil fuels, but heavily dependent inspiration and central to human challenge today is to create and sustain on weather and climate data to development. effective partnerships between users determine the availability of solar, and providers of weather, climate and wind and biomass energy sources. Environmental hazards have a dispro- water services and to fi nd new ways Robles Gil discusses the importance portionate impact on Africans, who of delivering information that meet of this information in the planning and are amongst the most vulnerable to the growing expectations of users of design of renewal energy systems and agricultural insecurity, adverse health those services. their day-to-day operations. Wider impacts and economic disruption. use of renewable energy systems is a Afi esimama describes how weather

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 3 Polar meteorology Understanding global impacts

World Meteorological Day 2007 Polar meteorology: understanding global impacts Message by Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General of WMO, on the occasion of World Meteorological Day 2007

Every year, on 23 March, the World the International Meteorological the assessment of climate change Meteorological Organization (WMO), Organisation (IMO). In 1879, Second and its impacts, in particular if the its 187 Members and the worldwide Meteorological Congress approved observing networks to be established meteorological community celebrate the concept of an International Polar or improved during the IPY period World Meteorological Day. This Day Year, which was held in 1882-1883. The can be kept in operational mode for commemorates the entry into force, second International Polar Year, which many years. on that date in 1950, of the WMO was also initiated by IMO, took place in Convention creating the Organization. 1932-1933. The success of the fi rst and As far as in situ meteorological Subsequently, in 1951, WMO was second IPYs led to the development observations are concerned, polar designated a specialized agency of of a wider international geophysical regions are some of the least the United Nations System. year, extending to encompass the densely covered areas on Earth. lower latitudes, rather than simply Polar meteorology has, therefore, In 2005, on the occasion of its 57th a new international polar year. This been relying extensively upon session, the WMO Executive Council was the International Geophysical polar-orbiting satellites. Early decided that the theme for the year Year (IGY), which lasted from 1 July meteorological satellite data derived 2007 would be “Polar meteorology: 1957 to 31 December 1958 and had from these regions consisted mostly understanding global impacts”, in far-reaching consequences in terms of visible and infrared imagery but, recognition of the importance of, and of scientific research, through the in recent years, a much wider range as a contribution to, International involvement of 80 000 scientists from of products has become available Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008, which is 67 countries. from active and passive microwave being co-sponsored by WMO and instruments, allowing in particular the International Council for Science Through the National Meteorological (ICSU). To ensure that researchers and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) can work in both polar regions during and other institutions of its Members, the summer and winter months, the WMO will be making substantial event will actually be held from March contributions to the new IPY in the areas 2007 to March 2009. The fundamental of polar meteorology, oceanography, concept of the IPY is an intensive glaciology and hydrology, in terms of burst of internationally coordinated, scientifi c research and observations. interdisciplinary scientifi c research Another essential input to the IPY and observations focused on the will be provided through WMO’s Earth’s polar regions and their far- Space Programme. Ultimately, the reaching global effects. scientific and operational results of the IPY will be offering benefi ts In recent years, there has been to several WMO Programmes, by renewed interest in the climate and the generating comprehensive datasets environmental conditions in the polar and authoritative scientifi c knowledge regions, which has some important to ensure further development of historical antecedents, since these environmental monitoring and regions have traditionally played forecasting systems, including severe a crucial role in WMO’s activities weather prediction. Moreover, it will and in those of its predecessor, provide valuable contributions to

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 5 for the determination of temperature period 1990-2100. Overall, the IPCC Ozone is an extremely important and humidity profi les, even during has estimated that, by the year 2100, stratospheric gas, since it protects cloudy atmospheric conditions, as sea-level will have increased between the biosphere by absorbing solar well as of winds, the extension and 9 cm and 88 cm, which would pose ultraviolet radiation. The atmospheric concentration of sea ice and several a very signifi cant problem for many ozone was first measured over other parameters. In addition, this Small Island Developing States and, the Antarctic by surface-based relative lack of in situ observations has in general, for all low-lying areas of instruments during the 1957–1958 also been partially compensated by the world. Currently, the IPCC is in IGY. Since the mid-1970s, a different the deployment of automatic weather the process of preparing its Fourth pattern was detected at the end of stations (AWSs) and of buoys, fi xed Assessment Report, which will be southern hemispheric winters, since or drifting on ice. released during 2007. increasingly lower values of ozone were consecutively measured each Although the polar regions are Shrinking of sea ice might induce year until the spring warming of the generally distant from widely serious changes in marine ecosystems, stratosphere set in. Accordingly, the populated zones, there is a great need thereby affecting marine mammals discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole for reliable weather forecasts in these and the vast krill populations that feed was an important consequence of areas. Around the Arctic, forecasts countless seabirds, seals and whales. the IGY. It was finally determined are needed for the protection of Permafrost is also sensitive to long- that the “hole” developed in great indigenous communities and in term atmospheric warming, so there part as a result of emissions of support of maritime operations, as is likely to be a progressive thawing some widely used industrial gases. well as for oil and gas exploration of the frozen grounds around the However, following the response and production. In the Antarctic, Arctic, accompanied by the expansion measures adopted, it now appears reliable forecasts are required for of wetlands and the potential for to be stabilizing. If the provisions complex air and marine logistical considerable damage to supported of the Montreal Protocol of 1987 on operations, as well as in support buildings and infrastructure. This Substances that Deplete the Ozone of scientifi c research programmes melting would also have implications Layer are adhered to, it is estimated and the expanding tourism industry. for the carbon cycle through the release that the ozone layer at mid-latitudes Weather forecasting in both parts of one of the major greenhouse gases, will be recovering its normal values by of the world presents some unique methane, which is trapped within the the middle of the present century and challenges, as compared to the permafrost. that, over the Antarctic, recuperation extra-polar regions, but the notable will demand an additional 15 years. advances made during recent years in terms of observing systems and However important the study of numerical weather prediction have led polar meteorology may be per se, to considerable improvement in the it is impossible to overemphasize skill of weather forecasts, including the fundamental impacts of the those made for the polar regions. polar regions on the global climate system as a whole. Changes at higher During the last decades, signifi cant latitudes can and do have signifi cant changes were detected in the polar impacts on all ecosystems and on all environment, such as a decrease in human societies, regardless of the the perennial sea ice, the melting of geographic latitude. Therefore, the some glaciers and permafrost and a impacts of polar meteorology must decrease in river and lake ice. These be considered within the broadest changes, which are even more evident context. in the Arctic than in the Antarctic, have been subject to considerable There are indeed numerous examples study. The 2001 Third Assessment of the global outreach of polar issues. Report of the WMO co-sponsored For example, polar ice constitutes Intergovernmental Panel on Climate effective thermal caps playing a Change (IPCC) indicates that the Earth’s critical role in sustaining the global global mean surface temperature oceanic circulation. Moreover, the increased by approximately 0.6°C polar regions have a primordial role over the 20th century. The Report in determining the global climate further estimates that globally system, which is driven by the averaged surface temperatures would energy received from the Sun, mostly be rising by 1.4 to 5.8oC over the at lower latitudes. As a whole, the

6 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 unrestricted data access and cross- cutting research initiatives. Through Polar meteorology: an ample outreach effort, IPY will understanding global impacts also represent a major step forward in making scientific knowledge A folder, a brochure (WMO-No. 1013), available and accessible to the a poster and a film have been general public. At the same time, produced for World Meteorological a foremost concern will be the fact Day 2007 on the theme “Polar that the impacts derived from the meteorology: understanding global polar regions are also important to impacts”. the global climate system as a whole, so that many changes detected at the A World Meteorological Day 2007 higher latitudes will also be found Website has been created which to have significant impacts on the can be accessed via the WMO sustainable development of all homepage. It contains the brochure societies, regardless of geographic and the poster (in pdf format) and latitude. the Secretary-General’s message (in Word). Meteorology has long been recog- http://www.wmo.int/wmd/ nized as a paradigm of a science without frontiers and polar meteoro- logy is perhaps the ultimate example of this principle. Therefore, as the inter- Equator receives over the year about to drought, as in fact attributed to national meteorological community fi ve times as much heat energy as the 1991-1992 El Niño event, when celebrates World Meteorological Day the Poles, and the atmosphere and a devastating drought episode 2007, it is my hope that all Members of the oceans respond to this large threatened some 18 million people the World Meteorological Organization temperature gradient by transporting with famine. “Teleconnections” are will recognize the importance of polar heat towards the Poles. Therefore, defi ned as atmospheric interactions meteorology and its potential global the two polar regions are linked to between widely separated regions impacts on their lives, their security the rest of the Earth’s climate system and researchers are now investigating and their prosperity. Moreover, it is through rather complex paths based such relationships between polar also my expectation that the outcomes on combined atmospheric fl ow and weather and other weather and of this endeavour will contribute to oceanic circulation. climate events. a better understanding of climate variability and climate change, as well The El Niño–Southern Oscillation The International Polar Year 2007- as to the development of much needed (ENSO) is a major mass fl uctuation 2008 will, therefore, be addressing climate applications to address some across the tropical Pacific Ocean, a wide range of physical, biological of the major challenges of the 21st which is associated with periodic and social issues, closely or indirectly century. variations in the sea-surface linked to the polar regions. The temperatures of the eastern Pacifi c urgency and complexity of the Ocean. ENSO is in fact a large climatic changes being observed in the cycle and it has been shown to affect polar regions will demand a broad regions far removed from the Pacifi c and integrated scientifi c approach. basin. Statistical evidence shows, Enhanced international collaboration for example, that, in certain parts and open partnerships resulting from of Africa, ENSO can contribute to this landmark scientifi c effort will, interannual rainfall variance and even no doubt, stimulate and facilitate

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 7 SECURE AND SUSTAINABLE LIVING:

SECURE AND SUSTAINABLE LIVING Social and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, Climate and Water Services

MINISTERIO DE MEDIO AMBIENTE

Madrid, Spain, 19 to 22 March 2007

Weather • Climate • Water www.wmo.int/Madrid07

8 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Sustainable living—reducing risks and increasing opportunities by M. Jarraud, Secretary-General of WMO

Fifteenth World Meteorological through its various programmes and Congress will take place in May this activities of a cross-cutting nature is year, in Geneva. It will meet in a context increasingly being appreciated. of the growing recognition globally of the importance of meteorological and This issue of the WMO Bulletin is hydrological information, products devoted to the all-important theme and services. The intersessional of the socio-economic benefits of period has been chararacterized by meteorological and hydrological an increasing toll of extreme weather services. Given the changing and water events such as droughts, needs of civil society, NMHSs must floods and tropical cyclones. The constantly assess users’ current and devastating and tragic tsunami of emerging requirements for weather, 2004 and other natural disasters water and climate information and The Secretary-General of WMO, Michel have brought the work of WMO to adapt their services to meet these Jarraud the fore in the development of early needs. This will demand an effective warning systems and disaster-risk dialogue between information users preparedness. Congress will make key and providers, as well as efficient WMO can provide even stronger decisions which will take into account communication between NMHSs and support to sustainable development the events of the intersessional period their governments. through the application of weather, and will guide the work of Members climate and water information to and the Secretariat in the areas of A major international conference on the reduce and mitigate natural disasters; weather, climate and water. social and economic benefi ts of mete- improve and sustain human health; orological and hydrological services enable human adaptation to climate As governments respond to the will be held in Madrid, Spain, from 19 to change; improve the management of challenges of meeting the United 22 March 2007 under the high patron- energy and water resources; manage Nations Millennium Development age of HM Queen Sofi a. By promoting and protect ecosystems; develop Goals, there is growing recognition dialogue between providers and users sustainable agriculture; and to that weather, climate and water have of related information, the conference undertake other activities that affect an increasing impact on civil society will promote better understanding and societies and national economies in and economies. There is also greater application of the products of NMHSs areas such as finance, recreation awareness that it is possible to make for social and economic benefit. A and tourism, transportation and civil more effective use of meteorological wide range of users and decision- engineering. and hydrological information not makers, planners, economists and only to mitigate some of the adverse social scientists will participate. The I hope readers will find this issue consequences of weather, climate outcomes of the conference should useful, interesting and informative. and water but also to use them as a provide guidance for the enhancement resource. of products and services. Above all, more effective partnerships between WMO assistance to its Members in users and suppliers of weather, climate improving the quality and utility of and water products and services will their products and services to users be promoted.

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 9 Interview with TitleHon. Maria Mutagamba

the heavy dependence of African In terms of water security what economies on rain-fed agriculture are the major challenges facing the with the attendant risks of droughts African continent? and floods. Hence, the region is Africa faces serious water security faced with a challenge to develop challenges. The availability of expeditiously the huge potential of freshwater in Africa is characterized irrigated agriculture as a strategy by high variable levels of rainfall, for eradication of absolute poverty resulting in extreme floods and and hunger. It has been estimated droughts. The solution to this extreme that a 3.3 per cent increase in annual climatic variability is increasing water- agricultural output is needed to storage capacity and regulation of achieve the continent’s food security fl ows. Currently, the average storage objectives. capacity in Africa is about 200 m3/ person/year, while, in North America, it Access to electricity in most African is about 5 961 m3/person/year. Africa’s countries is less than 200 kWh/person/ Hon. Maria Emilly Lubega share of global freshwater resources year and, in some countries, is less than Mutagamba is Minister of Water is about 9 per cent or 4 050 km3/yr. 30 kWh/person/year. In comparison, and Environment of Uganda. She Currently, only 3.8 per cent of water access to electricity in North America is the fi rst woman to be appointed resources are developed for water is more than 12 000 kWh/person/year. Minister of Water in her country. supply, irrigation and hydropower The technically feasible hydropower She has also been President of use. The freshwater resources are potential of the region is estimated the African Ministers’ Council on distributed unevenly across Africa, to be about 1.4 million GWh/year and Water for the last two years. She is with western Africa and central Africa so far only about 3 per cent has been a strong advocate for water issues having signifi cantly more than the rest developed. If Africa is to achieve its in Africa and has been promoting of Africa. By 2025, it is expected that goal of regional food security, the the WaSH message at both 25 African countries will be subject to energy supply for agricultural should national and international levels. water scarcity or water stress. be increased two- to three-fold. Born in the Gamba-Kakuuto-Rakai district of Uganda, Ms Mutagamba Enhancing Africa’s food security, In Africa, about 300 million people received her college degree from particularly of the poor and vulnerable, lack access to adequate water supply Makerere University and began her calls for intensive development of and about 313 million people lack professional career as a research water resources. It requires creation access to adequate sanitation. This offi cer for the Bank of Uganda. of storage of water for meeting the fi gure could double if the business- She is Member of Parliament for demand during the dry season. as-usual approach is maintained. Low Rakai District. Agricultural production has not kept access to sanitation and water supply pace with population growth in the is the root cause of many diseases Region. As a result, the nutrition that affect Africa. People with HIV/ position of the region is now worse AIDS who are victims of opportunistic than it was 30 years ago. One of diseases are also affected by the the reasons contributing to this is situation. Innovative measures will

10 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 have to be undertaken to deal with attainment of the water-related United Sanitation Initiative and the African this crisis. Nations Millennium Development Water Facility. Goals (MDGs) in Africa by 2015 In order to address the above continues to be a major challenge. At the same time, Africa urgently challenges, it is imperative that To meet that water target in Africa, needs to accelerate development of appropriate good water-governance an estimated additional 300 million water resources for increased water systems are put in place that take into people must obtain access to some supply, food and energy security, account the interests of all stakeholders form of improved water supply with increase storage capacity, assist in the management of water resources an average of over 30 million every in mitigating the effects of climatic through appropriate legislative and year, 577 000 every week and 82 000 changes and water-related natural and institutional mechanisms. every day, starting in January 2006. To human-induced disasters. Support meet that sanitation target in Africa, should be extended to national Promoting peaceful cooperation an estimated additional 313 million governments to develop adequate and developing synergies between people must get some form of policies and strategies that can make different uses of water at all improved sanitation by 2015 with an the above a reality. levels within and, in the case of average of over 31 million every year, transboundary water resources, 600 000 every week and 86 000 every The lack of adequate financial between States concerned, through day, starting in January 2006. and human resources for water sustainable river -basin management, development and management are essential. Africa has articulated the issues and continues to be a serious challenge challenges confronting the water and facing Africa. Under the given global Efforts to deal with all the above sanitation sector and has defi ned an economic framework, the majority of issues require fi nancial and human agenda comprising desired measures African national economies continue to resources, which, unfortunately, are through the New Partnership for be weak. Different public sectors and not always available. Lack of suffi cient Africa’s Development (NEPAD) services commonly have to compete fi nancial and human resources for and the African Ministers’ Council for the meagre national resources water development and management on Water (AMCOW) initiatives and available. Consequently, budgetary continues to be a major cause of programmes. Implementation of allocations for water development and concern. the agenda requires mobilization management are always inadequate to of adequate human and financial meet the required needs. Government capacity for which Africa needs bodies and individuals involved in Which of these challenges do you support. We need to forge strong water-management programmes consider to be the most serious and partnerships and mobilize adequate must provide the funds needed for how would you like to see them internal and external funds to water-management activities. addressed? support investments in the water and We need to recognize that access sanitation sector to meet the fi nancial It is also worthwhile to mention that to safe and sufficient water and requirement of about US$ 20 billion water-resources development and sanitation are basic human needs and per annum to enable attainment of management require well-trained are essential to securing food supply the MDGs and the African Water and skilled people in engineering, and for people’s health and well-being. Vision by 2025. At the same time, hydrology, chemistry, the environment We need a healthy population that can we need to follow up closely previous and other related disciplines, who are contribute actively to the economic pledges to existing water initiatives commonly lacking in many of our development of the continent. The such as the Rural Water Supply and countries. We need to build suffi cient capacities through appropriate training of staff in these fi elds. Africa must also create an enabling environment ... NMHSs need to sensitize politicians and decision- which will keep and retain the trained human resources and not lose them makers about the importance of meteorological and through “brain drain”. hydrological data and products, in the language they The institutional framework for water appreciate, as the necessary basis for proper and management should include the policy- making bodies that establish the rules reliable designs and optimal management of water- or legislation on the development and use of water resources, and the related schemes. legislative bodies and agencies with regulatory and political functions

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 11 and responsibilities. These bodies should strive to reconcile the various interests of water users at any given time. They should ensure that, for water management to be effective, it should be envisaged in an integrated form, through an integrated water- resources management framework.

How do you expect these challenges to be affected by climate change and are decision-makers taking the issue seriously enough?

Africa is a wide continent and its climate needs to be addressed on a regional basis. The potential for adequate rainfall on the continent depends on the response of the African atmosphere to prevailing global patterns of seasonally varying climate variables. WMO/P. Virot There is evidence that, with or without climate change, both droughts and “Mainstreaming gender within the context of integrated water-resources management fl oods have increased in frequency is ... critical to attaining the Millennium Development Goals ...” and severity over the past 30 years. The Sahelian zone, in particular, is now experiencing continued decline that families are provided with water Decision-makers have to perceive in rainfall compared to the average of for cooking, washing and other the importance and usefulness of the pre-1960s. Lake Chad, for example, amenities. Mainstreaming gender meteorological and hydrological has shrunk to 5 per cent of its size within the context of integrated water- services. They have to be more 35 years ago. resources management is therefore aware of the economic value of critical to attaining the Millennium meteorological and hydrological Climate change is projected to Development Goals, as well as the services and should allocate increase the risk of fl oods over much targets of the Johannesburg Plan of adequate amounts of resources of Africa and drought over much of Implementation. Government bodies for such services. They have to be southern Africa in the 21st century, should ensure gender-sensitive water convinced and should appreciate that partly through altering the frequency and sanitation infrastructure and resources allocated for these services of El Niño events. Decision-makers services and equal access, voice are not expenditures but creditable have to take the climate change issue and participation of women and men investments with high-quality future seriously, as it is likely to continue in decision-making at all levels of returns. However, the onus for all this affecting the African countries water-resources management. At the lies with the departments providing economically, environmentally and grass-root level, however, we are far the hydrological services. National socially. Although our larger problem from involving women in the planning Hydrological Services have to interact is the climate now with its variability processes. This requires a great deal with the user departments and clients and extremes, we have to adapt of effort in education and building to study their requirements of such our water-resources plans to this awareness of the issues involved and services that could help decision- emerging new reality. a move towards changing the culture making processes at various levels of decision-making. not only at the top. They have then to prepare themselves and make their How important is the role of women services available. in African water security and is this How can decision-makers use role adequately recognized? meteorological and hydrological This is necessary in order to increase services more effectively? In the African context, the woman the ability of National Meteorological and the girl child are the ones who If you allow me, I would put the and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to bear the greater burden of ensuring question in a different perspective. provide long-term data and information

12 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 As I said earlier, given the present accurate forecasts of their occurrence realities of resources, both fi nancial and magnitude, giving ample lead and human, we have an uphill task time for implementing mitigation to meet our goals of ensuring water interventions. security. We have been receiving good support from various UN agencies Meteorological and hydrological under the banner of UN-Water/Africa. services are often low down on With their support, AMCOW has made the political food chain, yet their certain progress. The African Water supportive role is crucial for the Facility has been established and well-being of other sectors such we have a mechanism to support as agriculture, hydropower and countries fi nancially in undertaking tourism. How can this imbalance be certain projects, for which we are addressed? grateful to partners in the Facility. But it is not enough. It is still too little to Effective water-resources develop- At the 4th World Water Forum (Mexico City, address the gigantic task. ment and management depend on the 16-22 March 2006), Ms Mutagamba said adequacy, quality and management that Africa was being held hostage by its The United Nations and its specialized of data on the various components hydrology, which was preventing Africans agencies, and WMO in particular, of the hydrological cycle and the from improving their living conditions. have a crucial role in developing environment. Meteorological and the capacities of African countries hydrological services have to provide to enable them to address these the scientific bases for effective complex issues. They need to give water resources development on the condition, characteristics and special attention to African countries and management in each country. trends in water resources and develop in their quest for solutions to attain Regrettably, NMHSs do not effectively information needed to assess various water security. They can help us to convey the economic value of the alternative development options, adapt and adopt new technologies services they provide and, as especially under increasing water - and avoid the tortuous path of learning such, decision-makers are unable stress conditions. Inadequacy of data through mistakes and thereby leapfrog to appreciate or prioritize these on water resources in the past has over the adverse situations that are services. Consequently, budgetary resulted in ineffi cient design of water encountered in the development allocations for hydrological services infrastructure, thereby negating the process. I call upon these agencies to have been systematically diminishing, expected benefi ts from the investment facilitate the carrying-out of research particularly in developing countries made in such schemes. on appropriate adaptation techniques and, above all, in Africa. to avoid catastrophic consequences Early warning systems (EWS) would of climate change. To address this unfortunate state become more and more critical in the of affairs, NMHSs need to sensitize context of global warming. The NMHSs We need WMO to help the NHSs of our politicians and decision-makers about can provide better and more accurate countries in monitoring, evaluating the importance of meteorological and flood forecasting and predictions, and providing vital information on hydrological data and products, in fl ood risk assessments, fl ood hazard the state of our water resources. Use the language they appreciate, as the maps and fl ood and drought warnings of climate outlooks for managing necessary basis for proper and reliable to enable appropriate flood- and the water resources by building designs and optimal management of drought-mitigation measures to be knowledge of the phenomena of water-related schemes. undertaken. Various sectors, countries droughts and floods in order to and individuals need help in adapting develop early warning systems This an area where an Organization like to, and mitigating, global change. and capability for timely and more WMO has a vital role in demonstrating Effective EWS would reduce their vulnerability and minimize the risk from those disasters that undermine their very survival. We need WMO to help the National Hydrological Services of our countries in monitoring, evaluating What are your expectations from and providing vital information on the state of our the United Nations specialized agencies and in particular WMO in water resources. relation to African water security?

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 13 the value of meteorological and energy and water resources, manage currently a subject of debate in hydrological services to decision- and protect ecosystems and develop some African countries. Where this makers, politicians, the private sector sustainable agriculture. has been adopted, it has attracted and the public at large. the participation of international institutions as shareholders in the What effective role could the private capital of the operating company and As you may be aware, the WMO sector take in improving the water has thus enhanced project funding. international Conference on Social situation in Africa? and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, Traditionally, it has been argued that a Climate and Water Services will good network of utilities and services take place in March 2007 in Madrid. such as water supply and sanitation What would you like to see come are a prerequisite for investment. out of the conference? While this is largely true, the private I am happy that WMO is encouraging sector can contribute proactively the NMHSs to interact with users. This to programmes that will ensure a is a very important conference. I see better environment for business, it as an opportunity for hydrological especially as regards improved water- and meteorological service providers resources management. Indeed, the to have a better knowledge about how private sector is already playing a their products and services are used part, albeit to a limited extent, in and where improvements are needed contributing to the improved water to increase their value to civil society situation in Africa. Most of the and the economy; and for users and equipment and instruments used in decision-makers to appreciate better data collection, monitoring, operation the current capabilities, responsibilities and maintenance of water utilities are and limitations of the various service manufactured by private companies providers. and fi rms. Most of this equipment and these instruments are not available in What I would like to see come out of the local markets in Africa and hence are conference is how governments can purchased from overseas at high cost. make more effective use of weather, These fi rms can make a signifi cant climate and water information to contribution by investing in African reduce poverty, increase water and local markets and producing the food security, improve health and equipment within African countries, ensure safety. I would like to see thereby reducing the fi nancial burden solutions for African nations to reduce of these countries. and mitigate natural disasters, improve and sustain health, adapt to climate There is also an issue of privatization change, improve the management of of public water utilities, which is Davide GuglielmoDavide

Enhancing Africa’s food security, particularly of the poor and vulnerable, calls for intensive development of water resources.

14 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Deriving societal and economic benefi ts from meteorological and hydrological services*

Introduction because of declines in fi sheries and back. Risks to energy supplies are crop production and degradation of associated not only with extreme water quality. Ecosystem changes meteorological hazards: renewable Meteorological and hydrological have resulted in increases in the energy is highly dependent on services provide a wide range incidence of fl oods and major fi res. weather, climate and water conditions of benefits to society from This, combined with migration to and the whole system can be subject the early warning of extreme marginal areas, which are subject to to blackouts and brownouts if there hydrometeorological events that more natural hazards than other places, are unanticipated changes in energy threaten lives, livelihoods and has signifi cantly increased the risk demand as a result of unpredicted property to the routine day-to- and the human and economic costs, changes in weather conditions. day weather, climate and water of disasters (Millennium Ecosystem The growth in global trade exposes information used to manage Assessment, 2005). More funds, more goods and services to potential agriculture, water resources, energy earmarked for development, are being delays. Manufacturers generally and transportation (Whung and spent on humanitarian assistance in maintain low inventories of goods Wilhite, 2007; Dubus 2007; Puempel, response to natural disasters, which to minimize costs. The result is that 2007; Dexter et al., 2007). is undermining development goals. supply chains are more susceptible to In addition, climate change is now transport network disruptions, which Today, weather and climate affect viewed as a major threat to societies can seriously impact the availability society more than at any other time, and their economic development of essential commodities from food with different sectors vulnerable to (Stern, 2006). to heating-oil supplies. Conversely, even small changes in environmental if approved with adequate lead- conditions. A mixture of social, Population and economic growth have time, such agencies can increase economic, political and environmental changed the requirements for energy, stock and resources in anticipation factors contribute to this exposure. In manufacturing and transportation. of requirements. particular, between 1960 and 2000, the Electrical power generation, which world population doubled from 3 to 6 is fundamental for economic security The blending of social, economic billion people and the global economy and sustainable development, is and environmental information increased more than six-fold. Despite reaching capacity in many countries. is central to sound planning and global increases in food production, Major disruptions to power supplies decision-making. Timely and certain human populations are facing are likely and, in some countries, accurate weather, climate and water greater food and water insecurity economic development will be set information and forecasts have many

* This article is a collaborative contribution, coordinated by D.P. Rogers (formerly, Met Offi ce, UK). The other contributors are: S. Clark (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO); S.J. Connor (International Research Institute for Climate and Society); P. Dexter (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and co-president of the WMO-IOC Joint Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology); L. Dubus (Electricité de France); J. Guddal (formerly, co-president of WMO-IOC Joint Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology ); A.I Korshunov (All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Center); J.K. Lazo (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA); M.I. Smetanina (World Bank); B. Stewart (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and president of the WMO Commission for Hydrology); Tang Xu (China Meteorological Administration); V.V. Tsirkunov (World Bank); S.I. Ulatov (World Bank); Pai-Yei Whung (US Department of Agriculture); and D.A. Wilhite (University of Nebraska, USA)

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 15 applications but the utility of these so-called value chain between the is the site of the impact. If the event is services often is poorly understood, weather and its impact occurs in close to the outlet, the time to respond resulting in low demand and lack communicating the information to may be too short to enable effective of public investment in National users and in the behaviour of users actions. Conversely, knowledge of Meteorological and Hydrological in response to that information and a thunderstorm approaching the Services (NMHSs). Unless demand- ultimately the effect of their decisions watershed or a quantitative precipi- driven services can be created, new on the societal or economic outcome tation forecast prior to the event, societal and economic benefi ts, which (Lazo, 2007). If the user cannot make gives additional potential lead could be provided by NMHSs, will changes or if there is no effect on warning time for the same outlet always be viewed as a low priority the outcome, the information has no location. This time may be reduced for government spending amidst direct value. and value lost, however, if decision- the needs and costs of other public makers are unable or unwilling to goods and services. This is apparent There are three areas where value respond to the fl ood threat based on in many countries, particularly the could be increased; namely by the forecast or rainfall measurement developing and least developed, which improving the forecast, by improving at the watershed (Carsell et al., 2004). have limited observing capability, com munication or by improving the In this case, value will be increased communication facilities and ability to decision-making process. If currently only if the decision process can inform and advise their governments available information is underutilized, be improved to accommodate an on issues such as climate-change added value will likely accrue if the earlier response. This is achieved by risks (Tsirkunov et al., 2007; IRI, 2006; communication or decision-making properly constructing and operating Justice et al., 2005; Obasi, 2001). If process is improved (Lazo, 2007). If the the warning system. NMHSs receive higher priority it will inform ation available is insuffi cient to be because they can demonstrate infl uence decisions, then value will Meteorological and hydrological tangible benefits to other public be added by improving the weather, information must be combined with services. The task for the NMHSs is climate and water information, vulnerability assessments in a threat- to understand the needs of these other itself. recognition plan with specifi c actions public services for weather, climate to take in the event of a warning. This and water information and create A fl ood-warning system illustrates increases the value of the decision- a demand for them. In developing how and where value can be added. making process which informs the countries, national development The determining factors in the public and emergency responders planning is emerging as one of the effectiveness of a warning system are so that they can act. The value of most important client sectors and lead-time and willingness to act. In the the meteorological and hydrological new methods are needed to engage case of a fl ood, the lead-time depends service is increased by adding real- effectively with this community. on the proximity of the meteorological time data and forecasts to the threat event to the watershed outlet, which evaluation and recognition that Here, we consider the challenge to NMHSs to meet the changing needs of society for meteorological and hydrological information and services. In particular, we discuss the growing importance of demand-driven advisory services for development planning and to manage the risks associated with climate change and natural disasters.

Creating societal and economic value

Weather and climate can cause significant societal and economic

losses. These can be reduced by Smugmug better preparedness and by using forecasts to make better decisions In developing countries, access to reliable energy sources is vital for poverty (Ulatov et al., 2007). Most of the eradication. Climate-change risk and the absence of reliable environmental data crucial value of weather, climate and water for the development and safe operation of energy systems are growing concerns for the information added or lost in the energy sector.

16 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 identifi ed thresholds have or will soon • Enhanced capabilities of Members frequently developed, tested and be exceeded. in multi-hazard early warning implemented with the direct cooper- and disaster prevention and ation of users through a well-defi ned Value is also added by increasing the preparedness by: requirements process. speed with which this information is available and analysed. By developing – Improving the capacity of The meteorological community recog- well-designed preparedness plans, Members to provide inputs nized the importance of meteorology ad hoc responses are eliminated and and make decisions, where for economic development as early the added value of the meteorological appropriate, for multi-hazard as 1968 with the fi rst international and hydrological information, com- early warning for disaster Seminar on the Role of Meteorological munication and decision steps preparedness; Services in Economic Development in increase the time available for action – Increasing participation of Africa (WMO, 2003). This application (Stewart, 2007). Members’ NMHSs in national posed a new problem, however, risk-reduction planning because, unlike the mariner or The issue of underutilization of and disaster-management aviator, the development planner is weather, climate and water information processes and activities; not likely to be knowledgeable about is a signifi cant impediment in creating – Improving the capacity of Mem- meteorology—and much less certain value. In some countries, this has been bers in the delivery of weather, of its value to his decisions. identifi ed as a major issue. It draws climate and hydrological haz- attention to the need to improve com- ard information and advice in Addressing this issue, E.A. Bernard munication and the decision-making support of risk identifi cation, prepared the Compendium of Lec- process. In response, the new WMO risk transfer and development ture Notes for Training Personnel in strategic plan identifies this as a planning; and the Applications of Meteorology to service- delivery strategic thrust – Increasing collaboration and Economic and Social Development and proposes initiatives to improve cooperation of Members’ (WMO, 1976). At that time, he was the understanding of, and ability to, NMHSs within ministries, optimistic that meteorologists would address the needs of users (WMO, agencies and economic sec- be called upon by governments and 2007). tors involved in disaster-risk economic planners more frequently in management. the future to address food shortages, In particular, the WMO strategic plan water requirements, energy needs emphasizes: and environmental pollution. He drew Weather, climate and attention to the need for meteorol- • Enhanced capabilities of Members water services as a ogists to be acquainted with social to provide and use weather, collaborative enterprise and economic factors and to be able climate, water and environmental to express themselves in appropri- applications and services by: The importance of collaboration ate economic terminology. He noted between producers and users of that any dialogue between econo- – Increasing the understanding weather, climate and water products mists, development planners and of societal and economic and services cannot be overestimated. other competent authorities would be requirements for weather, This cooperation ensures value is impossible, unless the meteorologist climate, water and air-quality added where it is needed to make is able to speak their “language”. services; certain that environmental informa- – Improving relevant, timely, cost- tion is properly considered and acted Internationally, the basis for collab- effective and useful products upon by users. oration and partnership is rooted in and services that can be used numerous initiatives. These include benefi cially by end users; Aeronautical meteorology, marine the Earth Summit (United Nations, – Expanding the use of weather, meteorology and agricultural meteor- 1992) and the Conventions on Biodi- climate and hydrological ology are obvious examples of versity, Climate, and Desertifi cation; outlook services provided by fi elds that have developed within the Small Island Developing States Members; the framework of this close rela- Barbados Plan of Action and its – Increasing assistance to coun- tionship. In each of these cases, the 10-year review in 2004 (Drakulich, tries in flood management; decision-maker is a knowledgea- 2005); the New Partnership for Afri- and ble user of weather information, ca’s Development (NEPAD, 2003); the – Increasing training and guid- usually with some training or edu- United Nations Millennium Develop- ance material that enhance cation in meteorology because of ment Goals (United Nations, 2006(a)); Members’ ability to deliver the high risk to the activity from the Johannesburg Plan of Implemen- quality services. adverse weather. New services are tation for Sustainable development;

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 17 information effectively; hence, they have not partnered with their NMHSs. Conversely, meteorologists have not understood enough about the impact of climate and disaster risk on development planning to create a demand for their products and services. In other words, the operational meteorologist has not learned the language of the development planners. Another issue is the difficulty connecting science and technology with socio- economic problems. Politicians and the public want quick solutions. The perceived slow and cautious approach of science to problem solving and the uncertainty conveyed in the results Megacities in particular face the challenges of providing adequate disaster-risk and is at odds with the need to make climate-change-risk management, public security , energy supplies, environmental rapid, unequivocal decisions. It is protection and transportation control. often diffi cult, therefore, for decision- makers to benefi t fully from scientifi c information and know-how and for the science to satisfy the needs of the Earth Observation Systems of WMO strategic plan (WMO, 2007) the user. Systems (GEO, 2005); the Ministerial emphasizes Declaration of the Third World Water The affordability of technological Forum; and the process leading to the • Broader use of weather, climate fixes is also an issue, particularly World Conference on Disaster Reduc- and water outputs for decision- in developing countries. The need tion (United Nations, 2006(b)). making and implementation by for cooperation was highlighted by Members and partner organiza- Nyangenya (2006), an economist from Although each of these has a role tions by: the Kenyan Ministry of Planning and for NMHSs, the statements in them- National Development, who identifi ed selves do not create a demand for new – Increasing the utility and the need for hydrometeorologists weather, climate and water services. uptake of assessment reports, and national planners to work Because no one has the capacity to bulletins, statements and other together to mitigate the effects of work alone, partnerships are critical provisions by policy- and other fl oods, mudslides and the impact of to the implementation and success- decision-makers; El Niño, which in 1997/1998 damaged ful outcomes of these initiatives. – Increasing the interaction infrastructure and led to the outbreak The United Nations encourages of WMO with various users of climate-sensitive diseases; and the action and cooperation between the through participation in relevant drought of 2000, which led to reduced United Nations system and other fora; and power generation and significant intergovernmental, governmental, – Increasing the cooperation economic losses in Kenya. He observed and non-governmental subregional, between WMO Members’ insti- that each of these impacts could have regional and global institutions. This is tutions, including universities, been reduced with proper planning an opportunity to help NMHSs, partic- national laboratories, the pri- but that integrating meteorological ularly in developing countries, become vate sector and NMHSs. and hydrological information into the more proactive in development pro- planning process is presently limited grammes, which will increase their by the lack of tools. societal impact. Where new serv- A new paradigm ices are largely unproven, such as for development It is easy to say that NMHSs should climate forecasts and assessments, align with development issues in their it is important that these applications Although climate and natural disaster countries. It is diffi cult, however, for are developed in partnership with risks have always been a factor in them to make this happen on their potential users. Otherwise, demand development, development planners own. What is needed is a catalyst. In is unlikely to be created. The part- have not always known how to this case, donor governments and nership strategic thrust of the new use weather, climate and water development banks, which have the

18 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 attention of government leaders, –Increasing the opportunity of losses and the level of prevented could assume this role. In particular, of effective participation of losses adjusted to the specifi c charac- they can help by encouraging greater candidates from developing teristics of a particular country. The intragovernmental cooperation to countries and LDCs in training sector-specifi c assessment is based ensure that there is national capacity events and technical meetings, on surveys of experts from weather- to address environmental issues. which lead to institutional dependent sectors with the aim of Bringing both potential service capacity-building. determining direct and indirect losses providers and users together at due to hazardous weather and esti- the national level would create the Creating the capacity to improve mates of the possible prevent able opportunity to develop more robust service delivery depends on losses and costs resulting from environmental services. These investment and modernization of more accurate and timely hydro- services would also address the services. Achieving this goal, in turn, meteorological information (Ulatov concerns of development banks and depends on being able to assess et al., 2007). donors, which have expressed the the potential economic benefi t of a specifi c need to mainstream climate hydrometeorological modernization New challenges change and disaster risk into national programme, which can be used to development planning (van Aalst, support the decision to allocate public While improvements in forecasting 2006). An important first step in funds for NMHSs. The World Bank, offer opportunities to provide new this direction has been taken by the jointly with a number of NMSs in services better tailored to specific United Kingdom Department for Europe (including Albania, Armenia, economic sectors, society at large faces International Development and the Belarus, Georgia, the Russian new challenges brought about by a Global Climate Observing System Federation and Serbia) and Central combination of demographic changes, (GCOS) in response to the need for Asia have developed benchmarking climate change and development. climate information for development and sector-specifi c assessment tools Societies nearly everywhere are in Africa (GCOS, 2006). to estimate the additional economic concerned about stability, food benefi ts that would be accrued from and water security, energy and In many developing countries, NMHSs the modernization and development transportation infrastructure as lack the capability to provide more of hydrometeorological services, as a means of reducing poverty and than the most basic services and well as assessing the current benefi ts achieving the internationally agreed sometimes not even that. The WMO (Tsirkunov et al., 2007; Ulatov et al., Millennium Development Goals Strategic Plan 2008-2011 identifi es a 2007). (United Nations, 2006(a)). Poverty capacity-building thrust and proposes eradication has become a major initiatives to improve the institutional Benchmarking is a pragmatic challenge that shapes all aspects of infrastructure needed to deliver approach to estimating weather societal and economic development more societal and economic benefi t impacts in the absence of detailed and the benefi ts that might be accrued to a Member State (WMO, 2007). In information about damage by making from better use of environmental particular, the WMO Strategic Plan assumptions about the annual level information. 2008-2011 emphasizes:

• Enhanced capabilities of Members, particularly Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and developing countries, to fulfi l their mandates by:

– Increasing their ability to plan, monitor and assess weather, climate and water phenomena more effectively in support of national development plans and policies; – Successfully implementing capacity-building activities that improve service delivery; – Enhancing the capabilities of Members to support poverty alleviation programmes; and The marine tourism and recreation industry is a fast-growing one.

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 19 In developing countries, access to reliable sectors in a geographic information Ecosystem services are an underlying energy sources is vital for poverty system-based urban information constraint on food and water secu- eradication. Climate-change risk and platform, which includes land-type rity, health, disaster risk management the absence of reliable environmental infrastructure systems, emergency- and sustainable development (Millen- data crucial for the development and response facilities, meteorological data nium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). safe operation of energy systems are and other information associated with Weather, climate and water infor- growing concerns for the energy sector city operations. From this platform, mation continues to be essential for (Dubus, 2007. NMHSs need to provide information can be disseminated to agricultural production system man- data to help in deciding the location policy-makers, social and economic agement, particularly crop planning and size of future electrical grids and users and the public. In Shanghai, and irrigation scheduling. However, production units, especially those based meteorological services to the public risk assessment of the potential on renewable sources (Dubus, 2007). and emergency services are provided spread of plant and animal diseases, They must also be able to provide using the same grid that is used to invasive species and the probability services for the short- to medium-term monitor and manage community of extreme climate events is becom- management of energy systems, and information for city operations. Joint ing increasingly important because of warnings to minimize the impact of rare development of information products the inherent vulnerability of the agri- environmental events. is also encouraged. This improves cultural system to climate variability decision processes for social and (Whung and Wilhite, 2007). For example, unanticipated extreme economic activities within the city weather events such as droughts or (Tang Xu, 2007). The management of coastal resources floods have seriously affected the is critical for many communities energy resources of Ethiopia, where The impact of climate on human health affecting human habitations, 97 per cent of the hydroelectric power is an increasingly important concern coastal and shoreline industry and comes from the Koka Dam. Major with more than 500 million Africans engineering, food production, coastal strategies need to be developed to living in regions endemic to malaria, marine ecosystems and marine mitigate risks from fl ash fl oods and which is highly correlated with the protected areas and the increasingly periods of water scarcity. The Ethiopian seasonality of climate and a further important marine tourism and Electric Power Corporation reported 125 million living in regions prone to recreation industry (Dexter et al., drought-induced hydroelectric power epidemic malaria, which is correlated 2007). Monitoring and forecasting failures that led to revenue losses of with climate anomalies (Connor and change in this system is an important US$ 8 million. While this dollar loss Thompson, 2005). Climate-sensitive new activity for many Meteorological is modest for a developed country, diseases, such as malaria, cholera and Services (see for example, the National for Ethiopia it is enough to destabilize dengue are promising candidates for Centre for Ocean Forecasting, which the economy (GEO, 2005). Similarly, in the development of early warning was started in 2005 by the United Kenya, where hydropower makes up systems designed to allow suffi cient Kingdom’s leading marine and 75 per cent of electricity generated, time for interventions to mitigate the oceanographic centres and the Met drought-induced water rationing in development of epidemics. Offi ce (http://ncof.gov.uk/). 2000 decreased the overall production of electricity to 40 per cent (Nyangenya, Respiratory diseases, linked with air 2006). It was estimated that the loss quality, are a problem facing many to the economy approached US$ 100 societies and may become more million per month (GEO, 2005). serious with the development of larger and larger urban settlements. Global urbanization is increasing For example, between 20 and 40 per vulnerability as more people live cent of the excess deaths during heat in megacities with new challenges waves are due to air pollution. NMHSs, to provide adequate disaster-risk alone or working with environmental management, public security, climate agencies, issue advisories based on change risk management, energy air-quality indices. Increasing attention supplies, environmental protection is being paid to the development of and transportation control (Tang dynamic air-quality forecasts as a Xu, 2007). In Shanghai, for example, tool to modify behaviour to improve

multi-agency preparedness, multi- health outcomes (Jalkanen, 2007). Digout, UNEP/GRID-ArendalDelphine hazard integration and multi-phase Environmentally sensitive health response are crucial factors in forecasting will become an increasingly Malaria in Africa (Sources: A. Platt managing disaster risks (Tang Xu, important part of the services offered McGinn: Malaria, Mosquitoes and DDT. 2007). Information is integrated across by NMHSs. World Watch, Vol. 15, No. 3)

20 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 A new challenge to traditional weather in forecasts and assessments. The society. In: Preprints of Secure and services is the change occurring neglect of any part of the value Sustainable Living: The Societal in commercial aviation. Like most chain—forecasting, communication and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, Climate and Water Products and sectors, the aviation industry needs and decision-making—undermines Services, Madrid 2007, WMO. to increase effi ciency and minimize society’s ability to receive benefit costs without compromising safety. from weather, climate and water DRAKULICH, A. 2005: A Global Agenda 2005- While the benefit-to-cost ratio for products and services. 2006. United Nations Publications, aeronautical meteorology is positive, 336 pp. there is growing pressure to increase Development is a special focus DUBUS, L., 2007: Weather, climate and the margins by increasing the for many countries and a growing water information and the energy effi ciency of services, while creating opportunity for NMHSs to strengthen sector. In: Preprints of Secure and greater societal and economic benefi t their climate services and integrate Sustainable Living: The Societal through more accurate and useful hazard-risk information into decision- and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, weather forecasts (Puempel, 2007). As support systems in partnership Climate and Water Products and Services, Madrid 2007, WMO. consolidation of services increases, with their clients. Realistically, the the pressure to reorganize aviation expansion in services from weather GCOS (Global Climate Observing weather services will grow. Similar and hydrological forecasting to System), 2006: Climate Information changes are occurring throughout climate assessments and partnerships for Development Needs: an the traditional weather service client with client sectors, such as health Action Plan for Africa. Report and base, including broadcasting, road- services and planning agencies, implementation strategy. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 18-21 April 2006 weather and marine forecasting. cannot be achieved without additional investment. An underpinning GEO (Group on Earth Observations), Competition between meteorological assumption is that, if other public 2005: Global Earth Observation service providers in the public sectors such as health, energy and System of Systems (GEOSS): 10- and private sector may ultimately transport are able to make better use year Implementation Plan. GEO 1000R/ESA SP-1284, ESA Publication improve the effi ciency of services, of weather, climate and water and Division, The Netherlands but the transition from a collaborative other environmental information, they intergovernmental environment to will reduce their operating costs and IRI (International Research Institute for a market-driven service will need improve their service delivery. Some Climate and Society), 2006: A Gap to be carefully managed to avoid of the economic benefi ts achieved Analysis for the Implementation of undermining the broader societal should then fl ow back to the NMHSs to the Global Climate Observing System in Africa. In Association with the and economic benefi t of the public enable them to continue to modernize Global Climate Observing System, goods and services associated with their service provision. the United Kingdom Department for NMHSs. International Development and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), IRI Technical Report No. IRI- Conclusion TR/06/1, 47 pp.

A major limitation in the uptake of References JALKANEN, L., 2007: Addressing socio- weather, climate and water information economic challenges in delivery by users is their inability to use the CARSELL, K.M, D. NATHAN, P.E. PINGEL and of weather-, climate- and water- information to affect the outcomes that D.T. FORD, 2004: Quantifying the related services and information— they are trying to achieve. It is in the benefi t of a fl ood warning system. air quality. In: Preprints of Secure Natural Hazards Review, 5, 131-140. and Sustainable Living: The Societal long-term interests of Meteorological and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, and Hydrological Services that CONNOR, S.J. and M.C. THOMSON, 2005: Climate and Water Products and resources are invested to increase Epidemic malaria: preparing for Services, Madrid 2007, WMO. the value of the weather, climate and the unexpected. A policy brief, water enterprise to improve societal in SciDevNet dossier on malaria, JUSTICE, C.O., D. WILKIE, F. PUTZ and J. SciDevNet. BRUNNER, 2005 Climate change in and economic outcomes. In the near- sub-Saharan Africa: assumptions, term this may require investment CONNOR, S.J., 2007: Managing climate realities and future investments. In: in improving decision processes; related health risks. In: Preprints of Climate Change and Africa. Pak Sum for example, developing and using Secure and Sustainable Living: The Low (Ed.), Cambridge University better risk-management tools, at the Societal and Economic Benefi ts of Press, 172-181. expense of investment in improving Weather, Climate and Water Products and Services, Madrid 2007, WMO. LAZO, J.K., 2007: Economics of weather the forecast products. Future services impacts and weather forecasts. In: are likely to be more collaborative so DEXTER, P., J. GUDDAL and C. CLARKE, 2007: Preprints of Secure and Sustainable that advances in decision processes Ocean data, information, products Living: The Societal and Economic will be coupled to improvements and predictions in the service of Benefi ts of Weather, Climate and

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 21 Water Products and Services, Madrid Living: The Societal and Economic 151/26 (Vol. 1). (http://www.un.org/ 2007, WMO. Benefi ts of Weather, Climate and documents/ga/conf151/aconf15126- Water Products and Services, Madrid 1annex1.htm) MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT, 2005: 2007, WMO. Eco systems and Human Well-being: UNITED NATIONS 2006(a): The Millennium Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, TANG XU, 2007: New Challenges Development Goals Report 2006. DC. to meteorological services for Available from http://unstats. human settlement and sustainable un.org/unsd/mdg/Resources/ NEPAD (New Partnership for Africa’s development in megacities. In: Static/Products/Progress2006/ Development), 2003: Action Plan for Preprints of Secure and Sustainable MDGReport2006.pdf the Environment Initiative. NEPAD, Living: The Societal and Economic PO Box 1234, Halfway House, Benefi ts of Weather, Climate and UNITED NATIONS, 2006(b): Hyogo Midrand 1685 South Africa, 128 pp. Water Products and Services, Madrid Framework for Action 2005-2015: (http://www.nepad.org/2005/files/ 2007, WMO. Building the Resilience of Nations and reports/action_plan/action_plan_ Communities to Disasters. Available english2.pdf) TSIRKUNOV, V., M. SMETANINA, A. KORSHUNOV from http://www.unisdr.org and S. ULATOV, 2007: Assessment NYANGENYA, J., 2006: Linking meteoro- of economic benefi ts of WHUNG, P.-Y. and D.A. WILHITE, 2007: logical information to national Hydrometeorological Services in Weather, water and climate planning processes in Kenya. East Europe and Central Asia (ECA) information for agricultural Presentation at the WMO Subregional countries. In: Preprints of Secure applications. In: Preprints of Secure Workshop on Social and Economic and Sustainable Living: The Societal and Sustainable Living: The Societal Benefi ts of Meteorological and and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, Related Services to Society for Climate and Water Products and Climate and Water Products and Eastern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, 28-30 Services, Madrid 2007, WMO. Services, Madrid 2007, WMO. August 2006. ULATOV, S.A. KORSHUNOV, V. TSIRKUNOV and WMO, 1966: The Potential Economic and OBASI, G.O.P., 2003: The role of WMO M. SMETANINA, 2007: Customizing Associate Values of the World Weather and National Meteorological and methods for assessing economic Watch. WWW Planning Report, No. 4 Hydrological Services in support benefi ts of Hydrometeorological (prepared by J.C. Thompson). of sustainable development, WMO Services and modernization Bulletin, 52 (4), 343-353. programs: benchmarking and sector- WMO, 2003: Socio-economic benefi ts specifi c assessment. In: Preprints of of Meteorological and Hydrological PUEMPEL, H., 2007: Aviation meteorological Secure and Sustainable Living: The Services, WMO Bulletin, 52 (4), service: pioneers in supporting Societal and Economic Benefi ts of 366-373. decision-making for safe, effi cient Weather, Climate and Water Products and economic air transport. In: and Services, Madrid 2007, WMO. WMO, 2007: The WMO Strategic Preprints of Secure and Sustainable Plan 2008-2011 and beyond (in Living: The Societal and Economic van AALST, M., 2006: Managing Climate preparation). Benefi ts of Weather, Climate and Risk. Integrating Adaptation into Water Products and Services, Madrid World Bank Group Operations. The 2007, WMO. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, STERN, N, 2006: Stern Review: The Washington, DC, 32 pp. Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 579 pp. UNITED NATIONS, 1992: Report of the United Nations Conference on STEWART, B., 2007: Disaster preparedness Environment and Development. Rio fl ood forecasting and warning. In: de Janeiro, Brazil. UN Department of Preprints of Secure and Sustainable Economic and Social Affairs, A/Conf

22 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Social and economic benefi ts of meteorological and hydrological services— a regional overview

Introduction • Issues relating to approaches producers and users of meteoro- to evaluating socio-economic logical and hydrological information benefi ts of weather-, climate- and and services. Problems of poverty Following two international confer- water-related services; alleviation and how to augment ences focused on understanding the effective implementation of for- role of National Meteorological and • Socio-economic benefits of ward-looking environment and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in cre- meteorological and hydrological development programmes also fea- ating social and economic benefi ts, services vis-à-vis investment tured prominently. a third conference entitled “Secure promotion, poverty alleviation and sustainable living; social and and sustainable development These discussions emphasized the economic benefi ts of weather, cli- activities; need for strengthened communication mate and water services”, which and collaboration among NMHSs, focuses on users and decision-mak- • Case-studies and good practices government ministries and other ers, is planned for 19-22 March 2007 on socio-economic benefits of institutions so as to enable better in Madrid, Spain. meteorological and hydrologi- understanding and appreciation by cal services, with emphasis on decision-makers, users and the general Leading up to the Madrid conference, the different needs of different public of the social and economic WMO-sponsored national and regional countries; value of weather, climate and water workshops were held, focused on: information and services. • Users’ needs and how to respond • Discussing various issues per- to them; and List of workshops held taining to social and economic benefi ts of meteorological and • Policy and fi scal issues. Africa hydrological services; Discussions across regions focused • Subregional workshop on the • Promoting understanding of vari- on how to close the gap between social and economic benefits ous approaches to social and economic valuation of services provided by meteorologists and hydrologists;

• Sharing a variety of useful experiences; and

• Examining difficulties experi- enced in making optimum use The crux of of weather-, climate- and water- economic related services. production in developing Some areas in which presentations countries is were made were: agriculture.

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 23 (23-25 November 2005, Manila, Least Developed Countries Philippines) Source: UN Offi ce of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, • Subregional workshop on social Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States and economic benefi ts of weather, climate and water services to Afghanistan Madagascar society for the League of Arab Angola Malawi States (Kuwait City, Kuwait, 18- Bangladesh Maldives 21 November 2006) Benin Mali Bhutan Mauritania Burkina Faso Mozambique Key issues emerging Burundi Myanmar Cambodia Nepal from the workshops Cape Verde Niger Central African Republic Rwanda Chad Samoa The most important economic Comoros São Tomé and Principe production in developing countries Democratic Republic of the Congo Senegal is agriculture. As noted by Sentelhas Djibouti Sierra Leone (2006), about 70 per cent of global Equatorial Guinea Solomon Islands land use is for agriculture, rangeland Eritrea Somalia and forestry. Of this, 12 per cent is for Ethiopia Sudan arable and permanent crops, 31 per Gambia Timor-Lesté cent for forest and woodlands and Guinea Togo 27 per cent for permanent pasture. Guinea-Bissau Tuvalu Haiti Uganda In Kenya, for example, Musyoki Kiribati United Republic of Tanzania (2006) notes that agriculture is Lao People’s Democratic Republic Vanuatu responsible for 25 per cent of the Lesotho Yemen Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while Liberia Zambia industry produces 13 per cent, tour- ism 5 per cent, and services 57 per cent. With respect to the use of of meteorological and related Republic of Tanzania 1-3 Novem- water in Kenya, agriculture accounts services for north, central and ber 2006) for 76 per cent of water consump- west Africa (Bamako, Mali, 29 tion, with industry using 4 per cent May-1 June 2006) The Americas and wildlife and inland fisheries using 1 per cent. This indicates • Subregional workshop on evalu- • Regional Technical Conference that 81 per cent of the water use in ation of the social and economic on Social and Economic Benefi ts the country has a direct bearing on benefi ts of meteorological and of Weather, Climate and Water economic production. On a similar related services to society in the Services Brasilia, Brazil (12-14 note, Sentelhas (2006) observed that eastern African region (Nairobi, July 2006) around 80 per cent of crop yield var- Kenya, 28-30 August 2006) iability is due to changeable weather Asia during the growing season, espe- • Subregional workshop on the cially for rain-fed crops. It has been evaluation of social and economic • National seminar workshop estimated that, directly or indirectly, benefi ts of meteorological and on the social and economic weather contributes to approxi- related services to society for benefits of meteorological mately 75 per cent of annual losses southern Africa (Arusha, United services to Philippine society in farm production.

The impact of weather variability is related not only to crop growing ... meteorological and hydrological services and yield but also to farming opera- benefi t security and law and order ... tions, especially in Least Developed Countries located in arid and semi-arid eco-geographic areas, such as Mali

24 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 and urban planning should rely can offer information sufficiently considerably on these environmental well in advance on epidemiological phenomena. The social effects of risk conditions, based on climate extreme weather and climate events anomalies. This improves the were highlighted by Amadore (2005), decision-making process arising who noted that education and culture, from scientific, interdisciplinary health and nutrition, employment criteria. Future follow-up research and social services could suffer efforts will focus on fi ne-tuning the tremendously from such events. epidemiological surveillance system, Amadore also noted that impacts on thereby facilitating the planning of health could be measured to some disease-control activities, taking the extent through mortality rates during corresponding political, economic and It is important to invest in children by disasters which are closely related to social effects into account. introducing meteorology into the school infectious diseases. curriculum. Mhita (2006) listed several areas of Other impacts may result after the the economy in which NMHSs play an occurrence of disasters, such as an important role. Reference was made to (Camara, 2006). Indeed, increased increased burden on urban resources a range of sectors such as insurance, cooperation between meteorolo- arising from the migration of displaced land-use planning and recreation. gists and the farming community in local workers to the cities for jobs, The United Republic of Tanzania Mali stemmed from a clear desire to increased dependence on government has shown that meteorological and ensure that meteorology makes a subsidies, worsening poverty, etc. hydrological information continues practical contribution towards achiev- In regions prone to natural hazards, to play an important role within ing the goal of self-suffi ciency and socio-economic losses would be the overall framework of national food security set by national author- much greater without effective recurrent and prospective socio- ities following the Sahelian droughts weather- and climate-related early economic activities. of the 1970s. warnings. Samar (2005) cited the case of typhoons Unding, Violeta, Winnie Climate information is of key benefi t In terms of agricultural policy, several and Yoyong in December 2004, when to the tourism industry. Marguerite issues should be taken into consider- losses could have been much more (2006) highlighted how weather and ation. An interesting example of how than US$ 102.6 million in the absence climate information and services are important it is to be vigilant when of relevant weather advisories. signifi cant to the tourism industry taking decisions was cited by Tahir in Seychelles. Being seasonal, the (2006), who noted that failure to uti- The health sector is an important tourism sector relies on appropriate lize weather and climate information area of concern. Pérez et al. (2006) meteorological and hydrological can result in a negative impact on reported that, in Cuba, it has been products, which enable better livestock development programmes. possible to set up a prediction system decision-making on planning and He made reference to the case of the for various health problems based management. These products are Ministry of Trade of Sudan where a on expected climate conditions that useful for advisory services to decision was taken in the late 1980s to import live sheep from Australia to augment the local meat market. The decision was made in haste, with- out consideration of the weather and climate situation and whether the imported sheep could withstand Sudan’s tropical climate. After leaving Khartoum airport, more than 60 per cent of the fl ock developed symptoms of laboured breathing, heart failure and heat stress and died.

Aside from their effect on agriculture, the impact of weather and climate on societal affairs as a whole cannot be Climate information is overemphasized. As an example, for of key benefi t to the maximum benefi t to society, regional tourism industry.

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 25 tourists, as well as for wider planning and management of the environment, for sustainable development.

The energy sector is one specifi c area, in addition to agriculture, in which weather plays an important role. Any form of useful information makes a difference to the economy of a country like Argentina, where, according to Estevez (2006), there is a strong correlation between temperature and demand for natural gas. At a generic level, Dao (2006) described the socio- economic benefits of weather and climate information to the energy sector in Mali. The provision of accurate weather forecasts to the appropriate services can help reduce Estevez (2006) also observed that more accidents, fuel consumption and pollution and associated costs and improve traveller than 60 per cent of all households comfort. are connected to natural gas supply networks. He noted that properly forecasting the temperature and its reliable meteorological information meteorological information, therefore, effects is essential for determining can be harnessed to carry out policing the police benefi t through planning and whom to supply and in what quantities. duties to the benefi t of society. For preparedness based, among others, Analysis shows that the temperature of example, extreme conditions affecting on weather information. both the present and the previous day the socio-economic and environmental affects daily demand. The time slots situation include shortage of food, Luganda (2006), Musukuma (2006) when temperature has the greatest water, electricity and many other basic and Traore (2006) are of the view that impact are 10-12 a.m., 4-6 p.m. and needs that lead to human confl icts special reference should be made to 9-11 p.m. Average temperatures for and can have devastating effects on the role of the media in enhancing the the previous two days also affect daily national security. use of climate information, especially demand. The analysis shows that, on on the level of societal and policy peak days, in addition to temperatures Climatic conditions dictate the kind of responses, hence influencing vital for the most signifi cant time slots for economic activity to be undertaken by decision-making. Indeed, they note the current day, temperatures for up the community. Any negative change that a strong correlation exists to the third previous day are relevant. of these conditions results in the mem- between levels of media coverage In view of this, a model was developed bers of a community reacting in order of a climate-related issue and public for the offi ce of the Argentine natural to protect themselves from adversity. response. In this connection, there is gas sector which helps in deciding, As a result, they may fi nd themselves an overwhelming correlation between according to gas availability, who being victims of, or being involved in, media coverage and humanitarian should be cut off. criminal activities, mostly as a result response. Indeed, the media can help of the circumstances. On another in averting catastrophe. The water sector, of course, relies note, heavy rainfall obliges motor- heavily on weather and climate ists to drive at low speed, making them During the drought in Ethiopia in information. Reliance on information vulnerable to carjacking. It hinders 1984, for example, the international could be signifi cant to the national police pursuit of escaping criminals media led the response. Local media economy of countries like Lesotho, and contributes to traffic jams and report on recent droughts in Kenya for example, where water export to accidents. In Kenya, under extreme (2005/2006) led to the saving of lives South Africa is an important foreign temperatures, for example, the police and property. The media contributed exchange earner (Motsomi, 2006). increase vigilance, stop and search to alerting the world about the suspicious, abnormally overdressed 2000/2001 floods in Mozambique. One area, which is not often mentioned, persons who could be bearers of dan- With modern technological know- is the benefi t of meteorological and gerous weapons. Police offi cers dress how, the media continues to play hydrological services to security and appropriately to cope with extremes of an increasingly important role for law and order. According to assistant temperature so as to remain focused the public and policy-makers alike. police commissioner Barmao (2006), on the job. With reliable and timely Traore emphasized the monumental

26 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 effect of media and communication to wide-ranging policy formulation for socio-economic development in “In most countries, socio-economic development is dependent on available a Least Developed Country such as natural resources, many of which are subject to the impacts of weather Mali. and climate conditions. Full benefi t should therefore be drawn from our knowledge of these conditions, in order to prepare and implement national One of the most appropriate aspects development plans. Since the adoption of the Millennium Development to examine is the planning sector. Goals and, more specifi cally, since the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable An important presentation on this Development in Johannesburg, South Africa, the struggle against poverty issue was made by Nyangena (2006), and hunger has been at the heart of strategies and action programmes an economist from the Ministry of at national, regional and global levels.” Planning and National Development, M. Jarraud Kenya. Citing the example of Kenya, Secretary-General of WMO Nyangena noted that events which highlight how important it is for Excerpt from the Secretary-General’s statement on the opening of hydrometeorologists to collaborate the Subregional Workshop on Social and Economic Benefi ts of with national planners include: Meteorological and Related Services in West, Central and North Africa (Bamako, Mali, • Floods which often affect several 29 May-1 June 2006) river basins;

• Drought affects large areas of eastern, Rift Valley and north- information is reliable only over a not less than 90 cases per event. As eastern provinces and high short time period. Planners obviously is the case in Kenya noted earlier rainfall resulting in mudslides in prefer deterministic information to (Barmao, 2006), the crime rate in hilly areas; probabilistic ones. Hence, a major Kuwait, especially smuggling, has challenge is the development of tools strong links with weather with par- • The El Niño episode of 1997/1998 for more accurate and longer-term ticular regard to visibility, comfort which damaged infrastructure forecasts. and wind conditions. and led to the outbreak of certain diseases such as Rift Valley Fever There is no doubt that, within the In delivering information to users, affecting pastoral communities; highly challenging eco-geographic Rabadi (2006(a)) emphasized the region of the Arab States, weather-, importance of making available factual • The drought of 2000 which led to climate- and water-related infor- information based on sound science. reduced power generation and mation and services are of great With this approach, according to Rab- resulted in blackouts and power importance to policy formulation and adi, it would be easier to communicate rationing estimated to have cost implementation. with actual and potential users in a the economy US$ 20 million. more credible manner. An effective The importance of collaborating way of approaching users in a profes- Nyangena (2006) further observed with a wide range of users was sional manner is through dialogue. that the effects could have been highlighted in the presentation by This could be initiated through an minimized with proper planning. Al-Shulaimi (2006) of the Depart- open lecture organized for specifi c Rainfall information has been used ment of Motor Vehicles and Road sectors, such as for traffi c police and to identify regions/districts at Emergency, Ministry of Interior, related security operatives. risk, leading to higher budgetary Kuwait. It demonstrated a strong allocations. Integrating meteorological correlation between weather and cli- Other indications of strong links with and hydrological information in the mate on the one hand and incidences users in the Arab region were given planning process is a major challenge. of insecurity and road accidents on by Bukhari (2006), who stressed the This is not only because the appropriate the other. According to Al-Shulaimi, usefulness of information on wind in planning ministries lack tools and when it rains in Kuwait, the number the building sector in Saudi Arabia; competencies to make the integration, of reported road accidents soars Edham (2006) emphasized how vital but rather because the available and statistics reveal an average of it is to take meteorological informa- tion into consideration in Bahrain; and Shuaibi (2006), who revealed the ... the media can help in averting catastrophe ... efforts being made to enhance col- laboration between users and the meteorological community in Kuwait.

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 27 In achieving the objectives of the The role of meteorology in disaster • Better appreciation of the need to regional workshops, it was ensured risk management was also elucidated embark on a systematic approach that the various events involved, to by Rabadi (2006(b)). to the evaluation of social and an uncommon extent, a considerable economic benefi ts of meteorological number of users of meteorological The foregoing overview refl ects the and hydrological services; and hydrological products. Through nature, diversity and extent of weather- frank and clear dialogue, overall and climate-related disasters, vis-à-vis • Need for incorporation of issues recommendations revolved around socio-economic issues worldwide, relating to social and economic the need to do more in promoting the with further emphasis on the need for benefits of meteorological and understanding and application of the an improved approach to management hydrological services in training benefi ts of weather-, climate- and water- response as a means of preventing programmes, hence, appropriate related services. loss of life and property. operators, technicians and Social and economic sectors that managers should be trained featured prominently were agricul- accordingly; Conclusions ture, the environment, energy, water resources, health, tourism and trans- While some individual presentations • Sharing of essential experiences port. Views were exchanged as to raised specifi c issues, the workshops across countries and regions; how developing and Least Developed summarized participants’ views on Countries could seize the opportu- addressing prevailing problems • Challenge to producers and users nity of lessons learnt from developed that hamper the optimum use of to prepare proposals for projects, countries. On this note, countries were meteorological and hydrological training, policy and fi scal options; advised to conduct more investiga- products for the benefi t of society. tions into identifying the key issues • The involvement of stakeholders that could be of benefi t to the devel- The important issues which emerged such as the media, the private opment and implementation of appropriate policy options. could be summarized as follows: sector and the academia.

• Need to enhance the poten- The outcomes of the various workshops References tial for improved cooperation have gone a long way to contributing

between producers and users towards enhancing understanding of AL-SHULAIMI, A. (2006): Benefi ts of mete- of meteorological and hydrolog- various issues concerning social and orological predictions to police patrol. ical services and information; economic benefi ts of meteorological Presentation at the WMO Subregional Workshop on Social and Economic and hydrological services. A key Benefi ts of Weather, Climate and Water • Need to understand the link achievement has also been the Services to the Society of the Arab States, between meteorological and enhancement of dialogue among Kuwait City, Kuwait, 18-21 November hydrological services and practitioners, service providers and 2006. users; policy-makers. AMADORE, L.A., 2005: Socio-economic im- pacts of extreme climatic events in the Philippines. Presentation at the WMO National Seminar/Workshop on the Social and Economic Benefi ts of Meteorological Services to the Philippine Society, Manila, Philippines, 23-25 November 2005.

BARMAO, H., 2006: Law and order. Presentation at the WMO Subregional Workshop on Social and Economic Benefi ts of Meteorological and Related Services to Society for Eastern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, 28-30 August 2006.

BUKHARI, S. 2006: Wind-load applica- tions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Presentation at the WMO Subregional Workshop on Social and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, Climate and water Services to the Society of the Arab States, Kuwait City, Kuwait, 18-21 November Meteorological information contributes to the profi tability and sustainability of livestock. 2006. Weather parameters are also some of the most powerful external factors affecting the population of large animals in wildlife management.

28 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 CAMARA, B., 2006: Avantages Socio- United Republic of Tanzania, 1-3 ture. Presentation at the WMO National économiques de l’assistance November 2006. Seminar/Workshop on the Social and météorologique sur le secteur agricole Economic Benefi ts of Meteorological au Mali. WMO Subregional Workshop MOTSOMI, M., 2006: Benefi ts of meteoro- Services to the Philippine Society, Manila, on Social and Economic Benefi ts of logical services in water resource man- Philippines, 23-25 November 2005. Meteorological and Related Services to agement in Lesotho. Presentation at Society for North, Central and Western the WMO Subregional Workshop on SENTELHAS, P.C., 2006: Benefi ts of National Africa, Bamako, Mali, 29 May-1 June the Evaluation of Social and Economic Weather, Climate and Water Services 2006. Benefi ts of Meteorological and Related to agriculture—the case of Brazil, Services to Society in Southern Africa, University of São Paulo/Piracicaba, DAO, H., 2006: The socio-economic ben- Arusha, United Republic of Tanzania, 1-3 Brazil. Presentation at the WMO Regional efi ts of weather information in the en- November 2006. Technical Conference on Social and ergy sector. Presentation at the WMO Economic Benefi ts of Weather, Climate Subregional Workshop on Social and MUSUKUMA, S., 2006: Socio-economic ben- and Water Services, Brasilia, Brazil, 12-14 Economic Benefi ts of Meteorological and efi ts of climate and weather to the me- July 2006. Related Services to Society for North, dia sector. Presentation at the WMO Central and Western Africa, Bamako, Subregional Workshop on the Evaluation SHUAIBI, K., 2006: Socio-economic benefi ts of Mali, 29 May-1 June 2006. of Social and Economic Benefi ts of weather, climate and water services: na- Meteorological and Related Services tional perspectives. Presentation at the EDHAM, A.T., 2006: Socio-economic benefi ts to Society in Southern Africa, Arusha, WMO Subregional Workshop on Social of extreme weather in the Kingdom Tanzania, 1-3 November 2006. and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, of Bahrain. Presentation at the WMO Climate and water Services to the Society Subregional Workshop on Social and MUSYOKI, H.K., 2006: Benefi ts of meteoro- of the Arab States, Kuwait City, Kuwait, Economic Benefi ts of Weather, Climate logical services to water and irrigation. 18-21 November 2006. and water Services to the Society of the Presentation at the WMO Subregional Arab States, Kuwait City, Kuwait,18-21 Workshop on Social and Economic TRAORE, S., 2006: Weather information—A November 2006. Benefi ts of Meteorological and Related communication tool for development. Services to Society for Eastern Africa, Presentation at the WMO Subregional ESTEVEZ, G.R., 2006: Temperatura y demanda Nairobi, Kenya, 28-30 August 2006. Workshop on Social and Economic de gas en Argentina. Presentation at the Benefi ts of Meteorological and Related WMO Regional Technical Conference NYANGENA, J., 2006: Linking meteorological Services to Society for North, Central and on Social and Economic Benefi ts of information to national planning proc- Western Africa, Bamako, Mali, 29 May-1 Weather, Climate and Water Services, esses in Kenya. Presentation at the WMO June 2006. Brasilia, Brazil, 12-14 July 2006. Subregional Workshop on Social and Economic Benefi ts of Meteorological and TAHIR, A.A., 2006: Benefi ts of weather and LUGANDA, P., 2006: Media, climate and society. Related Services to Society for Eastern climate information in livestock develop- Presentation at the WMO Subregional Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, 28-30 August ment in the Sudan. Presentation at the Workshop on Social and Economic 2006. WMO Subregional Workshop on Social Benefi ts of Meteorological and Related and Economic Benefi ts of Meteorological Services to Society for Eastern Africa, PÉREZ RODRÍGUEZ, C.A., C.P.L ORTÍZ BULTÓ, and Related Services to Society for Nairobi, Kenya, 28-30 August 2006. A. RIVERO VALENCIA and A. PÉREZ CARRERAS, Eastern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, 28-30 2006: Climate information for the ben- August 2006. MARGUERITE, T., 2006: Economic benefi t efi t of human health, University of São of weather and climate in tourism. Paulo/Piracicaba, Brazil. Presentation at Presentation at the WMO Subregional the WMO Regional Technical Conference Workshop on the Evaluation of Social on Social and Economic Benefi ts of and Economic Benefi ts of Meteorological Weather, Climate and Water Services, and Related Services to Society in Brasilia, Brazil, 12-14 July 2006. Southern Africa, Arusha, United Republic of Tanzania, 1-3 November 2006. RABADI, J., 2006(a): Meteorology service and traffi c police (Jordan). Presentation at the MHITA, M., 2006: Welcoming address WMO Subregional Workshop on Social at the opening ceremony of the and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, WMO Subregional Workshop on the Climate and water Services to the Society Evaluation of Social Economic Benefi ts of the Arab States, Kuwait City, Kuwait, of Meteorological and Related Services 18-21 November 2006. to Society In Southern Africa, Arusha, RABADI, J., 2006(b): Weather: our hostile best friend. Presentation at the WMO Subregional Workshop on Social and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, Climate The presentations given at the and water Services to the Society of the regional workshops will shortly Arab States, Kuwait City, Kuwait, 18-21 be made available by WMO on November 2006. CD-ROM. SAMAR, E., 2005: Socio-economic benefi ts of meteorological services to agricul-

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 29 Meteorological information for evaluating agrometeorological Titlerisk and uncertainty for agricultural marketing systems by R.P. Motha* and K.L. Menzie*

Introduction and meteorologists, WAOB serves technology and a scientific under- as USDA’s focal point for agricultural standing of crop phenology, JAWF Agrometeorological risk and market intelligence. Under WAOB is able to provide early warning of uncertainty permeate the global direction, interagency committees emerging weather problems and agricultural marketing system with of experts develop offi cial forecasts of potential crop shortfalls, even in far-reaching consequences for all supply, demand, and prices for major remote regions of the world. This market participants. Important socio- agricultural commodities. Parallel to type of analysis helps USDA meet economic benefi ts can be achieved its commodity supply, demand, and the critical market need for timely by designing business strategies to price forecasting function, WAOB’s and consistent information and, in minimize the impact of these risks. In Joint Agricultural Weather Facility so doing, provides valuable socio- order to optimize business decisions (JAWF) coordinates weather, climate, economic benefits by improving relative to agrometeorological risk and remote-sensing work among effi ciency and reducing the impacts and uncertainty, accurate, timely, USDA agencies. In addition, and in of risk and uncertainty in the global consistent, and widely available support of its commodity supply and food system. information is essential. This demand forecasting function, JAWF information requirement can be has operational responsibility for met in part through periodic review monitoring and analysing the impact Global agricultural and estimation of global supply and of global weather on crop production, demand for agricultural commodities. which directly affects the quality weather assessments— The quality and usefulness of such and timeliness of WAOB forecasts. tools and analysis estimation are contingent upon This activity is conducted jointly many factors, the single most by WAOB/JAWF and the National The impact of weather on crop important of which is accurate and Weather Service of the Department progress, condition and, ultimately, timely assessment of the impact of Commerce. production and price, is well of meteorological events on crop documented. For example, timely production. A unique feature of the USDA’s rainfall and seasonable tempera- system for estimating global sup- tures can signifi cantly enhance crop It was the recognition of the need for ply and demand each month is the production. In contrast, untimely timely, accurate, and widely available information provided by JAWF. On precipitation and temperature information about global crop a daily basis, meteorologists track extremes can significantly reduce production that led to the creation global weather developments and crop production. Given the infl uence of the World Agricultural Outlook interpret the impact on crops in the of weather on crop progress and Board (WAOB) within the United world’s major farming regions. This conditions, JAWF meteorologists States Department of Agriculture. information is presented to USDA monitor weather conditions world- With a staff of about 30 economists analysts and frequently forms the wide to help staff economists to basis for monthly adjustments to better forecast changes in agricul- * US Department of Agriculture, global supply and demand esti- tural commodities in the most timely Washington, DC mates. By combining sophisticated manner.

30 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 JAWF meteorologists employ various JAWF meteorologists prepare crop When compared with appropriate techniques to monitor and analyse weather assessments using a suite normals, these time-series provide global weather conditions. Time- of software tools and techniques. a useful indicator of favourable or series analyses are frequently used Although each of these methods differs unfavourable growing conditions. to diagnose the timing and cumulative in functionality and applicability, Signifi cantly, these temporal analyses affects of weather throughout the they generally fall into one of three also provide a means for identifying various stages of crop development. independent categories describing the similar weather patterns among These analyses help analysts type of analysis performed: temporal, multiple growing seasons. determine the vulnerability of crops analogue and/or spatial. Each of these to weather extremes at point locations analyses is discussed below. A simple yet effective technique or within small regions. Analogue for analysing agricultural and comparisons are used often to Time-series analyses are frequently meteorological data involves identify similarities among recent used by JAWF meteorologists to comparing past years for similar and historical weather data. These determine the timing and cumulative growing seasons or time periods. analyses enable meteorologists to effects of weather on crops during Such comparisons are typically estimate the likely impact of weather the growing season. When compared achieved by graphing data from on current crop production based on with a crop’s growth cycle, time-series different years over the same time comparable data from those years analysis can be used to evaluate the period or growing seasons. Visual when similar weather patterns were impact of hot or cold weather on crops comparisons of these data plots can observed. and to track the cumulative rainfall in reveal trends and patterns in rainfall a particular area. If the combination or temperatures that are especially Spatial analyses are also employed of heat and dryness occurred valuable in crop weather analysis to regularly plot and analyse during the highly weather-sensitive because of the critical role timing meteorological data relative to tasselling and silking period for corn, plays in determining the affects of geographically important features. for example, it would significantly weather on yields and production. Such features may include political reduce yield prospects. Although boundaries, terrain or crop-growing excessive heat and dryness can stress Another effective tool in determining regions. JAWF meteorologists crops throughout much of the growth yield potential is the comparison of have implemented operationally a cycle, the timing of these events can percentile rankings. These are typically geographic information system to result in signifi cantly different yield computed for historical monthly monitor changes in the weather and production realizations. For this or seasonal time periods, enabling relative to major crop-producing reason, multi-seasonal time-series of analysts to identify similarities regions worldwide. Applications weekly cumulative precipitation and in temperature and precipitation were developed to facilitate and average temperature are generated patterns among multiple years. automate data processing and display, worldwide each week. JAWF With this information, years with improving meteorologist capabilities currently has the capability to display similar rankings can be identifi ed to to identify and delineate crop areas historical time-series from 1978 to the determine what relationship exists, if of concern. present for comparative analyses. any, between the yields in years with similar weather occurrences.

Measurements of weather and climate variables are recorded frequently (e.g. hourly, daily, monthly) at numerous weather observation sites worldwide. These data are critical in understanding current and historical trends in the weather and climate at each of these point locations. One of the fi rst steps in JAWF’s data-analysis process is to display individual station data on maps containing the political boundaries of the agriculturally important regions. These maps are used to identify areas where crops may be experiencing weather-related problems caused by extremes in temperature or precipitation and

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 31 to help in data quality and control. variation in the price and availability Given that the presence of anomalous of the inputs required for production. weather often provides an early alert For example, if a particular variety to potential weather-related problems of wheat planting seed is grown in for agriculture, JAWF analysts must Argentina and producers in southern have a working knowledge of the Brazil prefer that type of seed, then climate of a particular area to correctly availability and price of the planting analyse the data and prepare accurate seed will have an impact on the assessments. Although these point incomes of Brazil’s wheat producers. plots of temperature and precipitation The global interconnectedness data are valuable in crop-weather of agricultural markets increases assessments, additional analyses the influence of risk beyond local are often necessary to thoroughly markets. assess the likely impact of anomalous weather on crop development. Directly or indirectly, each economic agent at every level of the global agricultural marketing system Risk and the agricultural is affected by one or several of the risk types defined above. All marketing system market participants derive economic benefits from improved resource The global food and fi bre system— allocation made possible with timely from producer to fi nal consumer—is but, eventually, acreage that had been information about the condition of subject to a wide range of risks intended for corn may be shifted to crops. and uncertainties. Economic and soybeans. social benefits can be realized by Another example of risk is the direct minimizing the impact of these risks. Another example is soybean planting impact of drought on producers in an Risk in agriculture can be broadly in India. Area devoted to planting affected area. Lower yield reduces defined into several categories soybeans can be signifi cantly affected production for each producer, (USDA, 2006). Yield risk is probably by the timing and consistency of the potentially putting each producer’s the most commonly considered risk monsoon. If the monsoon begins income at risk. If the drought is in agriculture, because it reflects early and rainfall remains relatively widespread, national production directly the impact of weather on farm consistent, soybean planting often levels may be reduced, resulting operations. Temperature and moisture continues beyond initial expectations, both in higher prices and an atypical variation are the typical causes of with a resulting increase in total area seasonal pattern of prices. Higher yield risk, with irrigation being one planted to soybeans and a likely prices and atypical seasonal price of the only signifi cant approaches to increase in expected production. affect producers’ decisions about minimizing the impact of hot or dry quantity and timing of sales that can conditions. Price volatility is another important maximize income. source of risk. Commodity price Production risk entails all the factors information is critical to producers, Producers beyond the region that affect yield risk, plus the addi- buyers and sellers up and down the immediately affected by drought are tional impact that adverse weather supply chain. Agricultural commodity also affected. The decisions these may have on producers’ ability to prices are subject to sharp fl uctuations producers make ultimately affect plant. Two crop-specifi c examples of over relatively short periods of soybean supply and demand, fi rst in planting risk include corn/soybeans time and over a wide geographical local markets but, ultimately, in global in the USA and soybeans in India. range, depending on both local markets. Because drought affects the For the USA, cool and wet spring and global supply and demand level and seasonal pattern of prices but weather may not allow for timely conditions. Adverse or favourable not production levels for producers planting of corn. After a certain date, agrometeorological conditions in beyond the geographical reach of corn planting becomes infeasible due one part of the world can lead to the drought, these producers have to the number of days until matu- uncertainty and price risk in distant an opportunity to maximize income rity and, as the spring days pass, the markets. by taking advantage of higher prices increased likelihood of the crop being caused by the drought. Because the affected by freezing episodes in the Income risk is caused by the three drought affects the seasonal price autumn. Initially, producers can con- types of risk previously described, patterns, causing a sharp departure sider shorter-season varieties of corn plus additional factors, including from normal, however, these

32 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 producers must also consider the may come from domestic soybean southern hemisphere and a shift in timing of sales to maximize income. crushers and exporters as these the demand for storage and transpor- enterprises attempt to meet business tation services from the region. The grain storage business is also needs. Water transportation services potentially affected by drought. are affected in the same manner as The entire agricultural marketing Specifi c effects depend on the location rail transportation. Barges and ocean- system is dependent on timely infor- of the storage. For storage facilities going vessels may be in less demand mation about crop development in in the drought region, the main issue because of reduced soybean supplies order to operate effi ciently. Economic is whether there will be enough crop and increased prices that may reduce benefi ts are derived by both produc- volume to effi ciently utilize available buyer demand. Profi t and income is ers and consumers from accurate storage. For storage facilities located at increased risk for businesses that and timely information. WAOB/JAWF in parts of the country not directly provide water transportation for assessments of meteorological effects affected by the drought, the main grain. are critical to providing such impor- issue is one of timing. While there tant information. is enough volume to utilize storage Global soybean supplies are distrib- capacity efficiently, the impact of uted almost equally between the Conclusion the drought is the level and pattern northern and southern hemispheres, of cash and futures prices and how so a drought in the northern hemi- Risk and uncertainty affect every these impacts will affect the optimal sphere likely leads to global supply aspect of the agricultural commodity timing of sales. adjustments six months later. South marketing system, from producer America accounts for more than to fi nal consumer. Weather-related The grain transportation system, 50 per cent of exportable supplies yield and price risk translates into like the storage system, depends of soybeans, soybean meal and soy- income risk in agricultural markets on volumes of grain to maximize bean oil. When global supplies are around the world. Accurate, timely, income. For the rail system, one of disrupted owing to a drought in the consistent, objective and widely the main issues is positioning of US Midwest, higher prices occur in available information, resulting from rail cars during the harvest season global markets. Higher prices signal analysis of the impacts of weather on and in the months that follow. When producers in South America to expand crop production, improves economic drought strikes a region, demand for the area devoted to soybeans in the efficiency and provides socio- rail cars may diminish there but may fall planting season subsequent to the economic benefits to agricultural increase in parts of the country not drought. Higher production in South producers and consumers alike. directly impacted. Increased demand America leads to increased exports in the non-affected producing areas of soybeans and products from the

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 33 Impact of climate change on 1 Titlesugar-cane production in Fiji by J. Gawander2

Sugar-cane and climate As many decisions in the Fijian sugar population of Fiji and a large number industry are affected by climate, of people are indirectly dependent on advance knowledge of climate it for their livelihoods. Furthermore, The climate of the South Pacific variations using climate-forecasting the smallholder system of cane- region is strongly modulated by the tools can therefore enhance planning farming confers widespread benefi ts El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) across each of the sectors of the and has a strong multiplier effect on phenomenon. This leads to signifi cant industry. This would reduce the the economy. interannual variability in the frequency adverse effects on the socio-economic of many extreme weather types, such system in rural areas. While efforts to diversify the economic as tropical cyclones and associated base of the nation are continuing rap- storm surge, fl oods and droughts in Increased capacity for utilizing climate idly, sugar will remain the economic the region (Prasad, 1979). predictions in management decisions backbone of the nation for some time would be beneficial to the sugar- to come, barring strong international Sugar-cane is one of the most cane industry in Fiji and needs to be market changes and national changes. important agricultural crops in Fiji. As further pursued, given the present Being an industry whose product is it is totally rain-fed, climate variability and anticipated impacts of climate traded in the international market, has a major impact not only on sugar variability on sugar-cane and other it has to face up to major price fl uc- production but also on the national agricultural crops. tuations. Thus, in the past and at economy. Therefore, it is essential present, its fortunes have fl uctuated to understand the impact of major accordingly. Despite this, the industry changes in climate patterns that The sugar industry in Fiji has survived, prospered and main- affect sugar-cane and sugar yield. tained its dominant position in the Sugar-cane industries worldwide The sugar industry was established Fijian economy, even though the sin- are exposed to climate-related in Fiji over 100 years ago and is the gle most important factor responsible uncertainties across an integrated third highest revenue earner for the for production is climate variability. chain of industry sectors, including country, after tourism and garment cane cultivation, harvesting, transport, manufacturing. Owing to the manual milling, marketing and shipping planting and harvesting techniques Climate as a resource (Muchow et al., 1999). There are employed and the special land-tenure feasible management options such system for small farm units, it is Climate is rarely considered as a as introducing irrigation systems to unique. There are only a few countries valuable natural resource available mitigate some of the adverse impacts in the world whose economies depend for economic and social growth until of climatic variability. on sugar as much as Fiji. a major event disrupts the production of energy, agriculture or poses as a Sugar is a major foreign exchange risk to the health of the population. 1 This article is based on a paper pre- earner, accounting for about 40 per Recent awareness of climate change sented at the Technical Conference on cent of the country’s total merchandise has to some extent assisted in using Climate as a Resource (Beijing, China, 1–2 November 2005) exports and 12 per cent of Fiji’s Gross this important resource wisely. 2 Sugar-cane Research Centre, Fiji Sugar Domestic Product (GDP). The industry Corporation Ltd., Lautoka, Fiji provides employment for about Recent studies have revealed that E-mail:[email protected] 25 per cent of the economically active Pacifi c island countries have warmed

34 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 on average between 0.3°C and 0.8°C again dropped substantially to during the last century. In the past 255 703 and 293 653 tonnes of sugar, four years of this century, they have respectively, due to droughts. A continued to record higher-than- similar drop occurred in 1983, but normal temperatures, while the production was restored to the pre- number of hotter days and nights drought level in the following years. per year have been increasing. Thus, it is essential to understand the impact of major changes in the State-of-the-art global climate model climate patterns that are the important (GCM) (Lal, 2004) projections indicate resource affecting sugar-cane and that, in the South Pacifi c, the average sugar yields. annual mean surface temperature rise by the end of this century is projected to be between 2.5°C and 3.5°C. An Seasonal climate average increase of some 3-8 per cent in annual mean precipitation is outlooks in the South- simulated. West Pacifi c some aspects of interannual and This is a major concern for sugar The climate of the South Pacific interdecadal variability in climate production in Fiji as sucrose accumu- region is strongly modulated by variables when forced by historical lation could be affected with increased the El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea-surface temperatures. Efforts minimum temperature accompanied (ENSO) phenomenon and this leads are also underway to gain a better by rising sea-level and saltwater to signifi cant interannual variability understanding of mechanisms intrusion and large-scale inundation of in the frequency of many extreme related to extremes in weather and coastal areas due to storm surges. weather events, such as tropical climate in association with large-scale cyclones and associated storm surge, circulations. floods and droughts in the region Recent impacts of (Prasad, 1979). Droughts related to ENSO are common. In the South- Effect of climate climate on sugar-cane West Pacifi c, droughts can occur at and sugar production both ENSO extremes (El Niño and at various levels La Niña). of the industry In view of the fact that the sugar industry is totally rain-fed, climate Other persistent weather events Climate affects all levels of the variability has a major impact not only in the region are associated with industry, even up to policy level. At on sugar-cane and sugar production the influence of Madden-Julian the policy level, advanced knowledge but also on the economy of the nation. Oscillations (MJO) on the shifts of climatic conditions for the season The sugar-cane and sugar yields have in the mean position of the South helps in formulating and planning fluctuated with extreme events in Pacifi c Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and policies associated with possible Fiji. In 1994, a record production of associated extreme rainfall events extreme events. At the selling level, an 516 529 tonnes of sugar was recorded, (Madden, 1986; Kiladis et al., 1989; accurate estimate of crop size helps in thanks to excellent ripening weather Salinger et al., 2001). High-resolution making advanced shipping-schedule conditions during the months of global climate modelling studies (e.g. arrangements and advanced selling April and May. A record for the regional climate models, variable and storage strategies. Even the 1970s and 1980s was established in resolution models, time slices) carried global supply-and-demand situation 1979 and again in 1986, when cane out at major international research could be better understood by having production peaked at 4.06 m and centres during the past decade have advanced knowledge of climatic 4.1 million tonnes, respectively, and provided a useful means of studying conditions in other countries. sugar production reached 473 000 the mechanisms of the genesis of and 501 800 tonnes, respectively. ENSO episodes, MJO and SPCZ in At the factory level, good forecast Unfortunately, drought conditions the equatorial Pacifi c Ocean (Jones information has a major impact on in the year 1997 and tropical cyclones et al., 1998; Latif et al., 1999; Li and management decisions. An accurate Evan and Freda (19 January-2 February Hogan, 1999; Landsea and Knoff, idea of crop size influences the 1997) and Gavin (8 March 1997), led to 2000; Lambert and Boer, 2001; Li and beginning of the crushing season and a decline in production to 2.2 million Yu, 2001; Folland et al., 2002). Today, the closure of the mills. It also helps tones of cane and 275 000 tonnes of these models are able to demonstrate in planning for general maintenance sugar. In 1998 and 2003, production the capability of simulating of the mills in the slack season, i.e.

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 35 whether it is going to be a short or a long slack season.

In normal times, the mill opens in June and closes in early December but in years when the crop size is large, adverse climatic conditions late in the season result in standover crop or huge losses due to a low percent age of “pure obtainable cane-sugar” in the wet season. In Fiji in some years, mills had to operate up to mid- to late January, resulting in the tonnage of cane exceeding the production of sugar. However, if a few months before mill opening, it is known rainfall will be low in May-June and high in November-December, then the mills can open earlier. On the other hand, Pacifi c island countries have warmed on an average of 0.3°C and 0.8°C during the last if the crop is small, mill opening century. In the past four years of this century, they have continued to record higher- could be delayed so that the crop than-normal temperatures, while the number of hotter days and nights per year have could achieve high sugar levels in been increasing. September. This ensures better profit from a high percentage of pure obtainable cane-sugar levels. available today that the Earth’s Recent analyses of surface Advanced knowledge helps in climate has changed during the past temperature data over a network planning for wet weather disruptions century. of stations in Fiji also suggest that on flat and hilly land areas. At the the 1990s were the warmest years farm level without irrigation, cane Global mean temperature data indi- on record (relative to the 1961- yield is highly dependent on rainfall. cate that the year 2002 was the second 1990 average) and that the past Most of the management decisions warmest on record, exceeded only three years of the 21st century have for the grower are dependent on by 1998 and well above the average continued to record higher-than- weather and climate forecasts from temperature of 14°C that prevailed normal temperatures (Lal, 2004). The initial land preparation to planting, from 1951 to 1980 (Jones et al., 1999). warmth in the west Pacifi c during fertilization, herbicide spraying, weed According to recent projections (IPCC, 1998-2002 has no precedent in at management, cane harvesting and 2001, TAR WG II, Chapter 17), the rise least the past 150 years (Folland et al., shipping. in annual mean surface tempera- 2002). Climate attribution studies fi nd ture of the Small Island Developing that this warming (approximately 1°C Thus, the need for accurate forecasts States of the Pacifi c is likely to range since 1950) is beyond that expected is extremely important but this is not between 1.5°C and 2.0°C in the 2050s of natural variability and is due partly appreciated by many people in most and between 2.5°C and 3.5°C in the to the ocean’s response to increased sectors until a major catastrophic 2080s due to future increases in green- greenhouse gases. This may be a weather event occurs. house gases. harbinger of future droughts.

Climate change A decline in summer rainfall over some Not only sugar-cane productivity but islands is also projected, leading to also that of cassava and other root in the Pacifi c low soil moisture and, hence, reduced crops, which are important daily foods water availability for agriculture and for the communities in Fiji, could be Pacifi c island communities are faced other domestic and industrial uses. adversely affected should there be with new challenges resulting from Future increases in the frequency of a change in rainfall pattern and rise changes taking place elsewhere in heavy rainfall events (leading to more in temperature above a threshold. the world—climate change and sea- flash floods and landslides) and a Fiji’s sugar-cane productivity, already level rise, in addition to natural and decrease in the number of wet days vulnerable to extreme events such environmental disasters already in per year are also projected (Kothavala, as droughts, tropical cyclones and place. There is increasing evidence 1997; Hulme and Viner, 1998). cyclones, may be able to tolerate

36 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 moderate variations of the climate be conserved, it is essential to have Baseline climatic studies mean within a cropping season for management strategies to intercept some hybrid varieties. Changes beyond most of the radiation by appropriate Temperature and rainfall data for the these bands of tolerance (region- times of planting and row spacing. baseline period 1961 to 1990 have specifi c), however, may require shifts The objective is to plant the crop been analysed for four mills, namely in cultivars, new technologies and in April and May so that it closes Lautoka, Rarawai, Penang and Labasa. infrastructure, or, perhaps, conversion its canopy by late spring and thus They indicate that surface air tem- to different land uses. intercepts maximum solar radiation peratures have registered increasing in summer. trends at all the mills during the period Global and regional climates 1961-2003. There has been a steady will continue to change in the Temperature increase in the number of days per future if greenhouse gases from year with warmer night-time tem- anthropogenic sources continue The rate of photosynthesis is dependent peratures in recent decades. The rise to increase. The threat of global on temperature, as are many other in annual mean surface air temper- warming and likely changes in biochemical processes controlling ature over Labasa is ~1.5°C over the regional climate variability in general meristematic activity for leaf and 43 year period considered (at a sta- and the intensity of El Niño events bud development. Photosynthesis tistically signifi cant increasing rate of in particular has added another effi ciency of sugar-cane increases in 0.38°C per decade, which is more than dimension to our concern in Fiji. A a linear manner with temperatures twice that of the trend in global aver- marked shift in teleconnection links in the range of 8°C to a maximum of age temperature increase during the between rainfall in Pacific Island 34°C. Cool nights and early morning past century). The rate of increase in countries and El Niño/La Niña/SO/ temperatures 14°C in winter and annual mean surface air temperature MJO/PDO is almost certain (Ishii et 20°C in summer signifi cantly inhibit at Lautoka and Penang is 0.17—only al., 1998; Knutson & Manabe, 1998; photosynthesis the next day. In Fiji 0.05°C per decade—but at Rarawai Knutson et al., 1998; Knutson et al., there is little variation in temperature there is no signifi cant change. 1999; Kharin and Zwiers, 2000). and thus sprouting and emergence are not much affected, even though, No trend has been observed at any Climatic factors in cool conditions, some varieties of the locations in annual mean rain- take longer to emerge than others. fall. Signifi cant interannual variability affecting cane and The variety Nadiri in Fiji emerges in in annual as well as summer rainfall sugar production only fi ve to seven days and is one of observed at all the sites, including the fastest emerging varieties. The extreme rainfall events during the Rainfall stalk elongation of sugar-cane is also 43-year period, could be largely sensitive to temperature, with general attributed to ENSO events and intra- Rainfall is the single most important acceptance that the peak growth seasonal oscillations in the mean factor responsible for sugar-cane phase is terminated by onset of mean position of the South Pacific Con- production in the rain-fed sugar day temperatures less than 21°C. vergence Zone. industry of Fiji. As rainfall is signif- icantly affected by extreme events Temperature and There are several feasible manage ment such as El Niño and La Niña, cane pro- options to mitigate some of the impacts duction is also accordingly affected. percentage of pure of climatic variability, even in Small The annual rainfall averages between obtainable cane-sugar Island Developing States (SIDS) like 1 700 mm and 3 000 mm, of which Fiji. These would reduce the adverse 75 per cent falls in summer between It is generally accepted that leaf effects on the socio-economic system November and April. Most cane- growth is constrained at temperatures in rural areas. The sugar industry has growing locations receive less than less than 14°C-19°C. Cool night been totally dependent on climate 25 per cent of annual rains in the temperatures and sunny days slow patterns since its inception and as a period of May to October. This low down growth rates and carbon result is vulnerable to extreme events rainfall has a major effect on crop consumption, while photosynthesis such as droughts, tropical cyclones production. may continue, thus enhancing sucrose and cyclones, as well as ENSO-related accumulation. The stalk elongation is climate variability. There is suffi cient Radiation more sensitive to lower temperatures data to evaluate the impact of such than are photosynthetic rates. Thus, climate events on the production of Solar radiation is the main source of accumulation of sucrose is not sugar-cane in Fiji. energy for photosynthesis and is also favoured at high temperatures as responsible for loss of water from growth rate increases more than Agricultural industries in all small soil and plants. As radiation cannot photosynthetic rates. island States are exposed to climate-

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 37 and every economic sector would be affected in Fiji. This is because climate is a natural resource, not only for Fiji but also for many SIDS, as they lack other natural resources, have a narrow range of skills and low economic resilience and are susceptible to natural hazards such as tropical cyclones and tsunamis (Hess, 1990).

Conclusion

Climate is an important resource for small island agricultural countries such as Fiji, where the contribution to global greenhouse emission is negligible but where the future effects of climate change and sea-level rise are expected to be signifi cant. These impacts will be felt by many future generations because the islands have low adaptive capacity, high vulnerability to natural hazards related uncertainties and the to minimize the adverse effect of and poor forecasting systems and sugar-cane industry is no exception. climate on cane. It is proposed here mitigating strategies. It affects all levels of the industry, that such an approach would more from cane cultivation to harvesting, strongly link scientifi c knowledge of A nation’s economic and social well- transport, milling, marketing and the agro-climatic calendar (contingent being are greatly infl uenced by food shipping (Muchow et al., 1999). A on forecasts), to the annual cycle security, health and sustainability series of recently completed studies of decision-making, especially of its natural resources, including offers a partial understanding of the where probabilistic information climate, water, crops, forests, full relationships and associated is being employed (Pulwarty and fish stocks and the reliability of benefi ts of the integrated knowledge Melis, 2001). A preliminary project transportation and health care of the climate-sugar system. Among was undertaken to develop a crop systems. Research into impacts these are lessons on methodologies simulation model which can assist in and adaptation strategies suggests for the use of a forecast in a practical application but the project that the most signifi cant challenges region, appropriate use of climatic fell short of providing the answers would result from increases in information, water-soil relationships, that were being sought. the frequency and intensity of implications for pest management, extreme climate events, such economic benefi ts of different crop There is a strong consensus in the as floods, droughts and tropical modelling approaches and the need international and national communities cyclones. Extreme events, as well to understand decision processes. that climate change is occurring and as rapid climate change, can cause These studies have been carried out that the impacts are already being critical thresholds to be exceeded, in Australia (Everingham et al., 2001), felt in some regions, particularly in often with severe or catastrophic Trinidad and Tobago (Pulwarty et al., Small Island Developing States. It is consequences. 2001) and elsewhere. also important to note that, even after introducing signifi cant measures to More needs to be done by the In Small Island Developing reduce greenhouse gas emissions international community in small States there are limited technical there would still be a degree of climate island countries such as Fiji, therefore, recommendations because of a change occurring, which would have to ensure reliable and accurate lack of accurate weather forecasts economic, social and environmental forecasting systems that can be used to develop strategies at grower impacts on all SIDS. by growers and which demonstrate level. There is a need for closer to decision-makers at all levels cooperation between the growers and Whilst the impacts would vary on a the advantages of using seasonal implementing agencies of strategies regional basis, all areas of the country forecasts.

38 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 References Range Forecasting, Toulouse, France, LI, T. and T.F. HOGAN, 1999: The role of 17-21 November 1997, WMO/TD-No. the annual mean climate on seasonal EVERINGHAM, Y.A., R.C. MUCHOW and R.C. 881, 105-108. and interannual variability of the STONE, 2001: Forecasting Australian tropical Pacifi c in a coupled GCM. J. sugar yields using phases of KHARIN, V.V. and F.W. ZWIERS, 2000: Changes Climate, 12, 780-792. the Southern Oscillation Index. in the extremes in an ensemble of MODSIM. transient climate simulations with LI, W. and Y.-Q. YU, 2001: Intraseasonal a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. oscillation in coupled general FOLLAND, C.K., J.A. RENWICK, M.J. SALINGER J. Climate, 13, 3760-3780. circulation model. Scientia and A.B. MULLAN, 2002: Relative Atmospherica Sinica (in Chinese with infl uences of the Interdecadal KNUTSON, T.R. and S. MANABE, 1998: English abstract), 25, 118-132. Pacifi c Oscillation and ENSO on the Model assessment of decadal South Pacifi c Convergence Zone. variability and trends in the tropical MADDEN, R.A., 1986. Seasonal variations Geophysical Research Letters 29(13): Pacifi c Ocean. J. Climate, 11, of the 40-50 day oscillation in 10.1029/2001GL014201, 21-1-21-4. 2273-2296. the tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 3138-3158. HULME, M. and D. VINER, 1998: A climate KNUTSON, R., R.E. TULEYA and Y. KURIHARA, change scenario for the tropics. Clim. 1998: Simulated increase of hurricane MUCHOW, R.C., M.J. Robertson and EATING Change, 39, 145-176. intensities in a CO2-warmed climate. B.A. K , 1997: Limits to the Science, 279, 1018-1020. Australian Sugar industry: climate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate and biological factors. In: Intensive Change (IPCC), 2001: Climate KNUTSON, T.R., T.L. DELWORH, K.W. DIXON Sugar-cane Production: meeting Change, 2001. The Scientifi c Basis. and R.J. STOUFFER, 1999: Model the challenges Beyond 2000. Contribution of Working Group I assessment of regional surface B.A. Keating and J.R. Wilson (Eds). to the Third Assessment Report of temperature trends (1949-1997). J. CAB International, Wallingford, UK, the IPCC. J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, Geophys. Res., 104, 30981-30996. 287-304. D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and KILADIS, G. N., H. VON STORCH and H. VAN PRASAD, R. 1979: Climate of Fiji, C.A. Johnson (Eds.). Cambridge LOON, 1989: Origin of the South Pacifi c Publication of Fiji Meteorological University Press: Cambridge, convergence zone. J. Climate, 2(10), Service, Nadi Airport. United Kingdom and New York, 1185-1195. USA, 881 pp. PULWARTY, R.S. and T.S. MELIS, 2001: LAL, M., 2004: Climate Change in small Climate extremes and adaptive JONES, C., D.E. WALISER and C. GAUTIER, island developing countries of South management on the Colorado River: 1998: The infl uence of the Madden- Pacifi c, Fijian Studies. Special Issue Lessons from the 1997–1998 ENSO Julian Oscillation on ocean surface on Sustainable Development, Vol.2, event. J. Environmental Management heat fl uxes and sea-surface (1). 6(3): 307-324. temperatures. J. Climate 11, 1057-72. LAMBERT, S.J. and G.J. BOER, 2001: CMIP1 PULWARTY, R.S., J. EISCHEID, and H. PULWARTY, KOTHAVALA, Z., 1997: Extreme precipitation evaluation and intercomparison of 2001: Climate, Climate Forecasting, events and the applicability of global coupled climate models. Clim. Dyn., and Sugar Production in Trinidad and climate models to study fl oods 17, 2/3, 83-106. Tobago: A Preliminary Analysis. and droughts. Math. And Comp. in Simulation, 43, 261-268. LANDSEA, C.W. and J.A. KNAFF, 2000: How SALINGER, M.J., J.A. RENWICK and much skill was there in forecasting A.B. MULLAN, 2001: Interdecadal ISHII, M., N. HASEGAWA, S. SUGIMOTO, the very strong 1997-98 El Niño? Bull. Pacifi c Oscillation and South Pacifi c I. ISHIKAWA, I. YOSHIKAWA and M. KIMOTO, Am. Met. Soc., 81, 2107-2120. climate. International Journal of 1998: An El Niño prediction Climatology, 21, 1705-1722. experiment with a JMA ocean LATIF, M., K. SPERBER and co-authors, atmosphere coupled model, “Kookai”. 1999: ENSIP: The El Niño simulation Proceedings of WMO International intercomparison project. CLIVAR Workshop on Dynamical Extended Report.

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 39 The socio-economic benefi ts of climatological services to the 1 Titlerenewable energy sector by S. Robles Gil2

Introduction inexhaustible. It has a wide geographic into mechanical, caloric or electri- distribution and can be used in a cal energy. decentralized way. Various solar Renewable energy technologies, energy technologies that have been Passive solar systems such as solar, wind and biomass are developed to take direct advantage of considered to be technically feasible both light of the Sun and its heat. Passive solar systems help to enhance and economically viable options in and control the input of solar energy the near future. They can help solve for space heating and cooling and the problems of using fossil fuels Thermodynamic systems lighting needs, as well as to conserve and provide many other benefi ts that energy. The technology has been together make them worthwhile, even Thermodynamic conversion has been, widely developed and used in Europe, at slightly higher costs. since ancient times, the most exploited Canada and the USA, and it has form of solar energy use. Through been gaining interest in developing Weather and climate play an important this process, solar radiation (direct countries. Passively solar-heated role in the availability of renewable or diffuse) is converted into heat. An buildings are highly economical, energy resources, the consumption exposed collector increases in tem- well received and of interest to of energy and the selection of fuels. perature and the heat absorbed is architects. Their use has many They also affect the performance of transferred to a fl uid and transformed different technical, environmental, the renewable energy systems and their conversion processes, and some of the activities related to their use.

This article briefl y outlines the solar, biomass and wind-energy conversion systems, their socio-economic value to various nations and their requirements for climate information.

Overview of the renewable energy sector Solar energy

Solar energy is the largest renewable energy source and, ultimately, it is

1 This article is based on a paper pre- sented at the Technical Conference on Climate as a Resource (Beijing, China,

1–2 November 2005) http://solarcooking.org 2 Comisión Nacional Del Agua, La Paz, Mexico E-mail: [email protected] Cooking with a solar-powered oven in Peru

40 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Costs of renewable energy technologies falling and the industry is expanding rapidly. Photovoltaic electricity Current energy cost Potential future energy production costs are about US$ 0.3– Technology (US$/kWh) cost (US$/kWh) 1.5 kWh (see table), depending on sunshine duration, turnkey costs, Solar heat 0.03-0.20 0.02-0.03 depreciation periods and interest Solar thermal electricity 0.12-0.18 0.04-0.10 rates. Under favourable conditions, Solar photovoltaic electricity 0.3-1.5 0.05-0.06 the lowest cost fi gure may come down Wind energy 0.12 0.03 to US$ 0.05-0.06 kWh.

Source: UNDP-WEC, 2005 Photovoltaic technology has an enviable record for the generation of power in stand-alone homes and and socio-economic advantages: under favourable conditions, the cost buildings. Its high reliability and low they work naturally, cleanly and might be one of the lowest to produce maintenance requirements have simply by using climate (sunshine heat—US$ 0.02-0.03 kW/h (see table led to a high degree of consumer and wind) as a favourable energy above). satisfaction, both in developed and resource. This locally generated developing countries, and especially energy supports energy conservation Concentrated solar power uses large in remote, environmentally sensitive and helps reduce the demand for sun-tracking mirrors to concentrate areas with no electrical grid. The conventional fuels. solar radiation. These may range installed photovoltaic capacity base from small multi-kW systems to large is concentrated in a relatively small Active solar systems power stations producing tens or hun- number of countries, such as Japan dreds of megawatts. Solar thermal (48 per cent), Germany (21 per cent), Active solar systems capture solar electricity is technically feasible and and the USA (16 per cent). energy by a collector that converts in many countries is well proven and the energy into heat. The heat is cost effective. It is the lowest-cost Photovoltaic systems use free and used for multiple applications, such solar electricity in the world, prom- abundant fuel and a locally generated as domestic hot water, heating swim- ising competitiveness with fossil-fuel energy, reducing the reliance on ming pools, pumping and irrigation plants in the future. Electricity pro- foreign energy sources. They are systems, water desalination, cooking, duction costs of grid-connected solar environmentally safe, reliable, fl exible drying agricultural products, refriger- thermal electricity systems may come in size, and easily transportable, ation and industrial process heat or down from US$ 0.12–0.18 kWh today require little maintenance and have steam for generating electricity. to US$ 0.04–0.10 kWh in the long term a long life. They are also benefi cial to (see table above). the national economy for they create Solar water heating at low tempera- jobs, are economically effective, may tures is the most widely used solar Photovoltaic systems improve the quality of life of people technology. It is considered to be the living in remote and isolated areas, best application for active solar-heat- Photovoltaic systems convert sun- and may be used as hybrid systems ing in Europe, especially in Austria, light directly into electricity by using (Shepperd and Richards, 1994). Germany and Greece. It is also widely photovoltaic cells. Solar energy is an used in some other developed coun- intermittent source with a relatively Biomass energy tries such as Australia, Israel, Japan low energy density that makes collec- and the USA and is gaining more tion and conversion to some extent Biomass was the main source of energy attention in developing countries. expensive and ineffi cient; therefore, until the beginning of the 20th century, China, especially, has increased its some applications require batteries when fossil fuels largely replaced it. At use and now is the largest solar mar- for storage, increasing the complexity present, biomass is the world’s fourth ket worldwide (Huang, 1993; Everett, and the cost of the systems. The use largest energy source, providing about 2004). of grid-connected photovoltaic sys- 11 per cent of the world’s energy sup- tems eliminates the need for storage ply and covering almost four-fi fths of In many regions, the dissemination and also allows the owner to sell the all renewable energy use (European of solar water-heating depends excess energy to the local utility. Commission, 2002). These energy- strongly on governmental policy, conversion systems range from sim- mainly because of the relatively The cost of the photovoltaic cell has ple, traditional and low efficiency high heat-production costs, which been one of the main constraints for pro cesses that burn feedstock directly, are about US$ 0.03–0.20 a kilowatt the conversion of solar energy into to modern, highly effi cient technol- hour (kWh) but, for the long term and electricity, but prices are currently ogies that convert feedstock into

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 41 and in Sweden and Finland where it reaches more than 17 per cent (Van den Broek, 1997). For municipal solid waste, Europe is ahead of the rest of the world: energy from waste is ideal for effective and sustainable waste management.

Pyrolysis

This system has been used since ancient times for making charcoal and, until more recently, for the pro- duction of gaseous fuels and oil. The technology is well established and kilns can be made at a minimal cost, Solar panels can deliver about 30-40 per cent of electricity needs in some countries. so the potential for cost reduction is low. Charcoal is used mostly for cooking, space heating and sanitiz- higher-value or more convenient solid, cheaper than fossil fuels and in areas ing water. It remains an important liquid, and gaseous fuels (Kaltschmitt situated far from urban centres. source of energy in many African, and Dinkelbach, 1997). Latin American and Asian countries, Most wood-fuel consumption is for mostly in urban populations. Brazil, Traditional biomass continues to be traditional use in households, for where the introduction of improved the major source of energy in devel- cooking, heating water, lighting and kilns has been successful, is the main oping countries, reaching 33 per cent space heating. It is also used to fi re charcoal-maker in the world (WEC- of the total energy use, especially in ovens and kilns and to produce steam FAO, 1999). The use of charcoal has rural areas, where it may reach 90 per and electricity for mechanical power several advantages over fuel wood; cent (Larkin et al., 2004). The share in some industries. It is a proven a higher effi ciency and convenience, of biomass in industrialized countries technology for generating electricity, and an easier distribution. averages only 3 per cent of their total particularly in those industries that energy consumption, but modern bio- produce residues, such as sugar Biomass gasifi cation mass energy technologies have been mills, pulp and paper industries and increasing and can be signifi cant in sawmills. Large contributions of This technology converts solid bio- some countries with large forestry sugar-cane bagasse to total primary mass to gaseous fuel. The availability industries or well-developed tech- energy are found in countries such of the resource is high, because gas- nologies for processing residue and as Brazil, Cuba and India. ifi ers can use feedstock with varying wastes, such as Finland and Sweden, moisture and ash content. Biomass reaching around 20 per cent. The use of improved stoves in many gasifi cation is still in a developing countries allows benefits such as stage and costs are relatively high. Thermochemical saving fuel, decreasing local pressure Biomass gasifi ers supplying low-to- conversion on wood resources, using local medium BTU (British thermal unit) gas construction materials, reducing gas are now in operation in both indus- This technology is based on the emissions, improving health, saving trialized and developing countries, decomposition of biomass by means of money, reducing effort, saving time but the number of units installed is heat. It uses open fi res, stoves, boilers and improving the quality of life. The small. They produce heat for boilers, and furnaces for direct combustion greatest improvement in stoves is driers and kilns or power for electric- and kilns to produce charcoal and being undertaken in China and India ity generation, water pumping, grain gasifi ers to make producer gas. (Bhattacharya, 2004). milling, and sawing timber.

Direct combustion Wood energy in Europe and Compared to the conventional power OECD (Organization for Economic systems, biomass gasifiers are This is the simplest and most Cooperation and Development) relatively benign to the environment common method of capturing the countries accounts for about 4 per cent and have some other advantages: energy contained in biomass. It is of the total primary energy supply. economically attractive only in regions In some countries it is higher, as in • They create jobs in rural where the costs of feedstock are Austria, where it reaches 14 per cent, regions;

42 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 • Small-scale heat biomass- Alcohol production Energy plantations gasifi ers are technically reliable and economically viable; The production of alcohol from The concept of growing biomass • Cost-reduction potential is biomass is now state-of-the-art. specifi cally for energy purposes is high. Although production costs have young and experience is still limited. decreased over the last decades, Its use is rapidly increasing, however, Biochemical conversion energy costs are still high and cost- and modern wood-energy applications reduction potential is low. Liquid are becoming more competitive with Biochemical conversion of biomass biomass fuels have particular conventional applications. into a fuel can be achieved either by promise for replacing fossil fuels for anaerobic digestion or by alcohol transportation in an economically Some industrialized countries, such fermentation. competitive way. Ethanol can be as Finland, Sweden, the United easily used in the transportation Kingdom and the United States, Anaerobic digestion sector instead of gasoline or as an have implemented several research- admixture. Bio-energy could largely and development programmes. This conversion system is now contribute to the energy supply in Developing countries are also imple- considered state-of-the-art and is growing cities where air pollution has menting programmes on sustainable one of the most economical and become a serious environmental and biomass for energy purposes. For easily obtained energy sources for health problem. example, farmers in India, Kenya and small communities. It is an option Rwanda are turning to agro-forestry to for feedstock with high moisture Global interest in ethanol fuels has respond to local demand for wood and content that cannot be burned increased considerably over the last to improve the environment. Other directly. The technology is available few decades. Many countries have effective experiences can be found commercially but the cost-reduction pioneered both small- and large-scale in Brazil, China, Ethiopia, Pakistan, potential is low. The biogas obtained ethanol fuel programmes, especially the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Turkey and can be used for multiple applications: Brazil and the USA. Besides other Uruguay, which have remedied some cooking, lighting, refrigerating and environmental advantages, the of the environmental damage caused space heating for domestic and production of alcohol for energy use by earlier deforestation (World Bank, commercial needs; heat for industrial helps revitalize rural communities 1996; Saraçoglu, 1998). processing; running pump sets and because it creates a large number of other agricultural machinery; internal jobs and enhances national energy Modern bio-energy has many combustion engines for motive power; security. signifi cant socio-economic benefi ts. and for generating electricity. It helps revitalize rural communities, Physico-chemical conversion creates a great number of jobs, Biogas technology is known in most diversifies production, reduces developing countries, where it has This conversion system produces a migration to urban areas, saves gained wide use, especially in China liquid biofuel obtained by pressing money, strengthens the local and India. Industrialized countries or extracting biomass that contains economy and increases income have built larger and more elaborately vegetable oil. The technology has stability. It also diversifi es fuel supply, controlled digesters (Dobelmann and been state-of-the-art for decades, enhances national energy security, Müller, 2000). Landfi ll gas has been but the energy costs are still high saves on foreign exchange and also gaining importance, especially and the cost-reduction potential is provides economic security (FAO, in Austria, Finland, France, the United low. The oil produced is simple to 1997; Börjesson, 1998; UCSUSA, 1999; Kingdom and the USA, where some use as a fuel. Depending on the type ABA, 2000). power plants are now operating. of burner, it can be used either pure or in mixtures for heating systems. Energy plantation costs are already Biogas production through anaerobic It can also be substituted for diesel favourable in some developing digestion guarantees a reliable and or added to diesel without problems countries. For example, eucalyptus cleaner renewable source that reduces (BMFT, 1992). plantations in north-east Brazil water pollution, requires a small supply wood chips at US$ 1.5-2.0 area, increases hygienic conditions, The use of bio-diesel is not yet com- per gigajoule, whereas costs are reduces the annoyance caused by mon, but it has been extensively tested higher in industrialized countries— odour and helps mitigate climate both in the USA and Europe. There as much as US$ 4 per gigajoule in change. It is an easily recoverable are no signifi cant projects in develop- some parts of north-west Europe feedstock, economically viable, that ing countries, but some progress has (UNDP-WEC, 2005). Co-generation also provides a residual sludge useful taken place in Malaysia, India, Nepal systems, such as natural gas and as animal fodder or fertilizer. and Thailand (Bhattacharya, 2004). coal with biomass, can achieve

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 43 the corresponding electricity produc- tion cost is about US$ 0.12 kWh (see table, page 41). Cost reductions of up to 45 per cent are feasible within 15 years and, eventually, wind electric- ity costs might come down to about US$ 0.03 kWh.

The use of wind energy has many advantages, it is environmentally friendly, creates jobs, revitalizes communities, uses local energy, eases the demand on the power grid, saves conventional fuels, diversifi es a nation’s portfolio and helps reduce the energy shortage.

Amit Shankar/CSE Amit Requirements for The use of renewable energy can create jobs, possibilities for using local construction climate information materials and provide attractive options for specifi c energy needs, especially in developing countries and rural areas. Climate and weather play an important role in the availability of solar, wind and biomass-energy sources and in lower costs. If biomass integrated large generators provide electricity the demand for energy. They also gasifi cation/combined cycle (BIG/ to utility grids and, from integrated have a signifi cant effect on system CC) technology becomes available systems with other generators performance. commercially, production costs (photovoltaic, biomass, or diesel), could drop further to about US$ 0.04 provide electricity to small grids. Energy systems must be carefully kWh (UNDP-WEC, 2005). designed to operate reliably, effi ciently Wind economics depend on the distri- and at low-cost, thus the planning and Wind energy bution of the wind resource, electricity design stages need detailed, historic costs and the system chosen. The climate information, which usually Wind energy is a form of solar energy world’s total wind-power generating consists of average climate data to that has been used since ancient capacity accounts for approximately determine the availability of solar, times for sailing, pumping water 0.5 per cent of the world’s power wind and biomass resources; the and grinding grain. Currently, it can generation. The world’s largest wind selection of biomass feedstock; the either be used directly or converted power installed capacity is found in appropriate orientation of buildings; into a higher-value, highly flexible Germany (36 per cent), Spain (16 per the energy demand variations; icing and useful form of energy: electricity cent), the USA (16 per cent) and risk; the site selection of solar, wind (AWEA, 2005). Denmark (8 per cent). Some other and biomass-energy systems and countries are India, Italy, Japan, the their optimal performance. Mechanical energy has limited Netherlands and the United Kingdom applications. Windmills are less widely (British Petroleum, 2004). Once a renewable energy system used today, but they still provide is operating, it is unlikely to be energy for pumping water and milling Wind-energy technology has continu- affected by average weather and grain in many rural areas, especially ally improved; it is more reliable and climate conditions, because these in developing countries. Modern costs have fallen around 90 per cent were considered during the design wind-energy converters constitute a during the last 20 years. Wind power is stages. The system may be affected maturing technology that has started one of the fastest growing renewable- by unusual weather and climate to supply electricity on a small scale energy technologies and is one of variability. For operation, current data, to remote sites, where it is frequently the most cost-effective methods weather forecasts and advisories are used for pumping water, charging of electricity generation available, mostly needed, especially for the batteries and for communication even with the relatively low current daily performance of the renewable systems. It may also reduce the cost of fossil fuels (Taylor, 2004). For energy systems, decision-making, electric bills of home-owners. On a instance, with average wind speeds at control of biomass growth and yield larger scale, windfarms with many the hub height range of 5.6–7.5 m/s, predictions.

44 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Climate monitoring and prediction BMFT (German Federal Ministry for Future. G. Boyle (Ed.), Oxford, United should be considered for energy appli- Research and Technology), 1992: Kingdom, 243-296. cations, because they could largely Renewable Energy. Status-Outlook- Research Goals. BMFT, Bonn, 88 pp. UCSUSA (Union of Concerned Scientist assist in forward planning and adapta- of United States), 1999: Energy tion for certain large-scale anomalies. BRITISH P ETROLEUM (BP), 2004: BP Statistical Overview. http://www.ucsusa.org/ Some of these requirements are Review of World Energy 2004. http:// energy/biomass.html already available from standard cli- www.bp.com (accessed 25 April matological summaries, but others 2005). UNDP (United Nations Development need to be developed to satisfy the Programme)-World Energy BÖRJESSON, P., 1998: Biomass in a Council (WEC), 2005: World Energy specifi c needs of solar-, wind- and Sustainable Energy System. Assessment: Energy and the biomass-energy users. Department of Environmental Challenge of Sustainability. http:// and Energy System Studies, Lund wwwundp.org/seed/eap/activities/ University, Sweden. wea/drafts-frame.html (accessed 17 Conclusions May 2005). DOBELMANN J.K. and D.H. MÜLLER, 2000: Energy sources such as solar, biomass The sustainable winery. ABIRER, VAN DEN B ROEK, R., 1997: The Role of Wood and wind offer a renewable, clean and Germany. Energy in Europe and the OECD. decentralized option that in the future Forestry Department, Wood Energy could help both meet the world’s European Commission, 2002: 2001— Today for Tomorrow (WETT), FAO energy demand and reduce our current Annual Energy Review. Directorate- Working Paper FOPW/97/1, Rome, dependence on unreliable, fi nite and General Energy and Transport, 87 pp. European Commission. http://europa. centralized energy sources. They en.int/comm/energy-transport/ WEC (World Energy Council)-Food would also lessen the environmental library/00_summary.pdf (accessed and Agriculture Organization of the problems caused by consumption 23 April 2005). United Nations (FAO), 1999: The of the latter. The use of renewable Challenge of Rural Energy Poverty in energy can create jobs, possibilities EVERETT, B., 2004: Solar thermal energy. Developing Countries. 185 pp. Renewable Energy, Power for a for using local construction materials Sustainable Future. G. Boyle (Ed.), World Bank, 1996: Rural energy and and provide attractive options for Oxford, United Kingdom, 17-64. development. Improving Energy specific energy needs, especially Supplies for Two Billion People. in developing countries and rural FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Washington, DC, USA, 118 pp. areas. Organization), 1997: Review of Wood Energy Data in RWEDP Member Countries. Regional Wood Energy A wider use of these renewable energy Development Programme in Asia, systems is a challenging technical and Bangkok, 104 pp. socio-economic process that requires the cooperation of diverse sectors. HUANG, J., 1993: Energy Substitution to The participation of climatologists is reduce carbon dioxide emission in China. Energy, 18 (3), 281-287. essential to provide the information and advice that users require for KALTSCHMITT, M. and L. DINKELBACH, 1997: the successful development and Biomass for Energy in Europe— operation of these alternative energy Status and Prospects. University of systems. Stuttgart, Germany, 537 pp.

LARKIN, S., J. RAMAGE and J. SCURLOCK, References 2004: Bioenergy. Renewable Energy, Power for a Sustainable Future. ABA (American Bioenergy G. Boyle (Ed.), Oxford, United Association), 2000: Taking biomass Kingdom, 105-146. into the 21st century. http://www. biomass.org. SHEPPERD, L. and E. RICHARDS, 1994: Energía Solar Fotovoltaica para Proyectos AWEA (American Wind Energy de Desarrollo. Sandia National Association), 2005: Wind Energy Laboratories, US Department of Fact Sheet. http://www.awea.org Energy, Albuquerque, USA, 44 pp. (accessed 4 March 2005). SARAÇOGLU, N., 1998: Turkish Energy BHATTACHARYA, S., 2004: Fuel for thought. Forestry. Zonguldak Karaelnes Renewable Energy World (REW). Üniversitesi, Turkey. http://www.earthscan.co.uk/ news/article/mps/UAN/228/v/3/sp/ TAYLOR, D., 2004: Wind Energy. Renewable (accessed April 25, 2005). Energy, Power for a Sustainable

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 45 Climate data and services: Titlepreserving our cultural heritage

Pisa is the capital city of the Province rainfall by the Tower itself, are not There are numerous examples of of Pisa in Tuscany, central Italy, washed away. These impacts were damage to monuments due to fl ooding renowned worldwide for its Leaning demonstrated by an analysis of the due both to direct erosive impacts of Tower, which attracts millions of microclimate around the Tower by fl ooding and to indirect impacts from tourists every year. Camuffo in 1996. the continuous and long period of growth of moulds. Construction of the Tower began in 1173. It was designed to be “vertical”, Need for greater In the case of temperature, it is but acquired a lean owing to a poorly awareness not the absolute temperature that laid foundation and loose substrate that affects masonry, but the range of allowed the foundation to shift. Over the Recent awareness of the impacts of temperatures and the time period centuries, the Tower sank even further climate on a number of ecosystem of their occurrence. Diurnal and into the ground. A multinational goods and services also helped turn seasonal changes in temperatures task force met in 1964 to discuss the attention of climatologists to and extreme events such as heat stabilization methods and after the issue of the impacts of climate waves and snow loading can cause over two decades of concertation, on monuments. deterioration of facades due to the Tower was closed to the public thermal stress. Cycles of freezing in January 1990. After a decade of Intense rainfall and changes in and thawing and overheating during reconstruction and stabilization humidity cycles can cause damage heat waves can damage internal efforts, the Tower was reopened to due to faulty or inadequate water structures. the public on 15 December 2001 and disposal systems. The porous nature has been declared stable for at least of the building material allows the Growing populations close to heritage another 300 years. water from the ground to enter the sites and lack of appropriate land-use structure and eventually escape into planning have led to the destruction The public are now allowed to go the environment through surface of natural vegetation barriers to wind. up to the top of the Tower, where evaporation. From the point of As a result, storms and wind gusts are meteorologists might be surprised view of archaeological remains or showing greater impacts on historical to fi nd an automatic weather station. cultural artworks, the important monuments than before. Wind-driven Recent studies on the interactions of aspect about heavy rain is how hot rain and sand, especially in semi- the atmosphere and the Tower have and dry the weather is afterwards, arid regions, can cause structural demonstrated that the columns and because it is the drying-out process damage and collapse, while surfaces capitals are subject to the greatest that is damaging. Crystallization of monuments can deteriorate under damage as a result of cycles of and dissolution of salts caused by the erosive effects of both water and heating and cooling caused by their wetting and drying affects standing sand. dimensional structure and by their structures, archaeological remains direct exposure to the Sun. Major and wall paintings, frescoes and In many areas, climate and pollution damage to the surfaces of the Tower other decorated surfaces. Relative can act together to cause immense is related to the impact of rainfall, humidity cycles and shocks can damage to monuments through while the area under the inclination causing splitting, cracking, flaking stone recession by dissolution of is subject to greater particle deposits, and dusting of materials and carbonates, blackening of materials, which, being screened from the surfaces. corrosion of metals, etc.

46 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Heritage” presents an overview of climate change, the impacts of climate change on natural and cultural heritage and the implications for the World Heritage Convention, as well as a number of recommendations. Some of the recommendations relevant to WMO are as follows:

• The World Heritage Committee could collaborate with the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by presenting information at the Conference of the Parties (COP) and meetings in the context of the work programme of the Subsidiary Body for Scientifi c The automatic weather station at the top of the Leaning Tower of Pisa, Italy and Technological Advice and encouraging the exchange of experts and the use of UNFCCC Climatologists and World World Heritage Committee considers guidelines. National Focal Points Heritage concerns as having outstanding universal value. of both Conventions could also These include 644 cultural, 162 natural work together on climate change Cultural heritage is the legacy of and 24 mixed properties in 138 States issues; physical artefacts and intangible Parties. attributes of a group or society that • Wetlands are vulnerable to climate are inherited from past generations, Climatologists around the world change and have limited adaptive maintained in the present and must take an active interest in World capacity. Innovative solutions are bestowed for the benefit of future Heritage concerns, which is now therefore required. Management generations. Our cultural and natural receiving greater attention in the light plans need to consider impacts heritage are both irreplaceable of projected climate change. of climate change and other sources of life and inspiration. pressures, minimize changes in hydrology from other human In August 2002, the historic city of Climate change activities, reduce non-climate Prague was devastated by a fl ood. pressures and monitor the Old theatres, libraries, churches, and heritage changes. Monitoring is essential museums and synagogues suffered to evaluate the effectiveness of damage amounting to some 80 million Climate change is high on the adaptation options and steps euros. In the same year, the Cloth international agenda. Rising sea- to rectify any adverse effects Hall, a World Heritage site in Cracow, levels are threatening coastal sites, should be part of the adaptive Poland, was partially destroyed by a such as the four World Heritage management strategy. A key severe storm. sites of London. Desertification is limitation to implementing threatening others, such as the three adaptation and mitigation The United Nations Educational, Great Mosques of Timbuktu in Mali. options for wetlands is the lack of Scientifi c and Cultural Organization So far, however, few governments knowledge of wetland hydrology, (UNESCO) seeks to encourage have considered the effects of altered their functioning, their uses and the identification, protection and weather on important buildings and past and present management; preservation of cultural and natural monuments. heritage considered to be of • Rigorous monitoring and outstanding value to humanity. This UNESCO convened a Group of maintenance are essential to is embodied in an international treaty Experts on Climate Change and ensure a continuous redefi nition called the Convention concerning World Heritage, which met on 16 of adaptation strategies as climate the Protection of the World Cultural and 17 March 2006 at the request of projections are refi ned. Training in and Natural Heritage, adopted by the World Heritage Committee. The the various problems and possible UNESCO in 1972. The World Heritage report “Predicting and managing the responses to climate change in all List counts 830 properties which the effects of climate change on World aspects of conservation activity,

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 47 namely, development of traditional • Information needs to be • Specific World Heritage sites skills, monitoring, management disseminated in the following to be used as demonstration and emergency preparedness, is specifi c areas: models for countries and other equally important; stakeholders to design adaptation – Climate-change modelling and and mitigation strategies for • Strengthening of existing monitoring geared to cultural sites facing climate change networks is necessary, together heritage; challenges; with ensuring that climate change – Prediction of subsidence and issues become a part of the heave caused by extreme • Assess the vulnerability of natu- exchange of information within weather; ral World Heritage sites in terms those networks. Environmental – Understanding of damage of their exposure, sensitivity and effects are transboundary. At the mechanisms and remediation adaptive capacity to the present very least, regional networks need due to extreme weather; and potential future impacts of to be strengthened and focused – Understanding the effect of climate change and develop strat- on climate change adaptation; wind-driven rain, leading to egies for those at most risk; severe damp penetration; • More research is needed on the – Understanding the effect • Specifi c site-level mitigation and effects of climate change on both of wind-driven dust and adaptation strategies should the physical heritage and on the pollutants, leading to erosion be designed and implemented social and cultural processes of and weathering; in partnership with relevant which they are a part; – Environmental performance stakeholders. States Parties and of historic buildings under site managers need to look beyond • UNESCO’s World Heritage extreme weather; the individual site level and Centre could engage with key • Mobilizing public and political develop and implement regional climate change researchers of support for climate change and/or transboundary mitigation the Intergovernmental Panel on adaptation and mitigation inside and adaptation strategies that Climate Change to encourage and outside World Heritage sites is reduce the vulnerability of natural them to address cultural heritage essential. This could be achieved World Heritage sites in a broader issues more directly. This would by a variety of measures— context; ensure that climate data of direct workshops, exhibitions, media relevance to World Heritage are campaigns, audiovisual material • Assess future climate change given the necessary attention; and popular publications—which scenarios through appropriate link the global phenomenon of tools and guidelines; • Strengthened capacity-building climate change to the local and is important for dealing with the regional context; • Monitoring climate, climate effects of climate change, as well impacts and management as for good communication and responses is critical. There awareness programmes. There should be a focus on professional is a need to ensure improved monitoring strategies. Remote- gathering and analysis of sensing such as satellite information to identify evolving technology, non-destructive conditions related to climate techniques and bio-sensing change. Developing adequate to assess biological damage monitoring systems where they to materials and the use of do not exist and strengthening simulation tools to predict the existing ones will be an important impact of climate change on the aspect of this effort; behaviour of cultural heritage materials are needed; • Not only extreme events should be documented but also short • A strategy for dealing with cycles of change that can make disasters arising from climate significant changes to cultural change should be linked with heritage. Records of short cycle wider disaster risk planning changes will gradually expand the and strategy efforts including notion of climate change impacts the “Strategy for reducing risks on cultural heritage and enrich from disaster at World Heritage understanding. properties” prepared by ICOMOS,

48 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 ICCROM, and the World Heritage at greater risk of future damage, for Centre. The rationale for this example due to rainfall changes or strategy follows the priorities for extreme climatic events. It will offer action of the Hyogo Framework advice on how to protect different for Action 2005-2015. types of monument against these new threats.

The World Heritage Committee NOAH’S ARK brings world-class endorsed the recommendations climatologists together with specialists and requested States Parties and all in the protection and conservation partners concerned to implement the of cultural heritage. In its fi rst year, Strategy so as to protect the universal the project used the Hadley Centre value, integrity and authenticity of (Met Offi ce, UK) climate models to World Heritage sites from the adverse provide information relevant to the effects of climate change. It decided effects of weather on buildings and that sites affected by climate change monuments. DHD Multimedia Gallery could be registered on the List of World Heritage in Danger. The partners have now generated A statue eroded by acid rain the crucial variables, which include Furthermore, the Committee relative humidity, the number of days requested the World Heritage Centre with high wind speed and predictions from the United Nations Environment to prepare a policy document on the of heavy rainfall and storm events for Programme, was unveiled at the impact of climate change on World three time periods: the present (1961- 12th Conference of the Parties to Heritage properties. The draft 1990), the near future (2010-2039) the UNFCCC and the second Meeting policy document should include and the far future (2070-2099). These of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol considerations of the synergies databases will form the basis of a held in Nairobi, Kenya. The report between conventions dealing with vulnerability atlas of Europe, showing describes impacts such as rising sea- this topic, identify research needs, areas where changes in conditions will levels, fl ooding and storms. Mosques, and address legal questions on the pose a threat to cultural heritage. cathedrals, monuments and artefacts role of the World Heritage Convention at ancient sites are threatened by with regard to suitable responses to The team is also modelling future changes in climatic conditions, which climate change. It should also defi ne levels of air pollution, long understood in turn may lead to damaging shifts in links with other United Nations and to have an adverse impact on buildings moisture levels affecting structures international bodies dealing with this and monuments. The outcome of all directly, or the chemistry and stability issue. this research will be a set of mitigation of soils on which they are found. and adaptation guidelines, targeted by monument type and building Studies of climate material, which will be made available for public use at the end of the project and monuments in 2007.

A project called NOAH’S ARK is A new report The Atlas of Climate studying how climate change might Change: Mapping the World’s affect European cultural heritage. The Greatest Challenge compiled by project is mapping areas where built researchers with the Stockholm heritage and cultural landscapes are Environment Institute with assistance

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 49 Weather forecasting in West TitleAfrica over the last 25 years by Ernest A. Afi esimama*

Brief historical with weather forecasters making of the situation which is satisfactory deductions from them. from the geometrical, kinematical, background statistical, dynamical and physical In the last 10 years, with the availability viewpoints. This is an exacting task, Meteorological Services were fi rst of the METEOSAT meteorological data which can seldom be completed in its established in different countries of distribution (MDD) system, analysed entirety on the forecast table, even West Africa in order to make obser- and forecast maps are retrieved to when much time is devoted to the vations of meteorological parameters supplement the conventional method. analysis. at a few stations, particularly in cap- With the dearth of synoptic data from ital cities. With the era of commercial stations in West Africa due to changes With experience and good judgement, flights, aeronautical weather fore- in telecommunication facilities, forecasters fi nd that it is usually pos- casting became a major activity of dwindling economies and social sible to apportion the time available the National Meteorological Services instability, reliance on numerical for consideration of the analysis in a (NMSs). These NMSs have developed maps (analysed and forecast fi elds) reasonably satisfactory manner. The and now have the responsibility of from world modelling centres became proportions are not, of course, fi xed. providing basic and specifi c weather preponderant. At present, there are In situations with a well-established and climate information/data for com- few forecasting centres that still use and dominant synoptic-scale system, mercial, industrial and agricultural conventional methods. the forecaster often proceeds to a purposes for private/public agencies consideration of mesoscale systems and individuals. The overall aim is to Conventional methods and developments, because these are contribute to sustainable development the systems (disturbance/squall lines, in all socio-economic activities. Essential to the preparation of mesoscale convective systems, etc.) success ful forecast charts are care- that are responsible for the weather ful analyses and consideration of situation in the northern hemisphere Weather forecasting a series of surface and upper-level summer. charts. Analyses do not end with the methods construction of suitable isopleths When the synoptic- and mesoscale which fi t the available observations systems interact in a complex manner, From the 1980s, when unnprecedented and are reasonable from the aspect which sometimes occurs during a advances in technology and know-how of continuity. It is most important that change of season, the greater part occurred, until the mid-1990s, weather the latest charts and the preceding of the time for consideration may be forecasting in West Africa was done series are meticulously examined so profitably spent on synoptic-scale mainly by the conventional method, that the weather forecaster obtains developments. The forecaster’s i.e. obtaining synoptic data from the an appreciation of movement and ability to identify the important areas WMO Global Telecommunication development in time and space. The or any particular chart is obtained System (GTS), plotting the data on weather forecaster also studies the by a combination of theoretical weather maps and analysing them, charts to obtain an understanding knowledge, practical experience and wise judgement. This is a great asset in the preparation of forecast charts if * Numerical Weather and Climate Pre dictions Section, Nigerian Meteorological Agency, they are to achieve a continuing high Oshodi, Lagos, Nigeria, E-mail: ernafi [email protected] standard of accuracy.

50 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Problems associated with conventional methods

A number of diffi culties are associated with this method in West Africa. Synoptic chart analyses cannot give accurate forecasts of meteorological elements over a part of any country. This is because:

• The synoptic chart analysis method cannot take into account the meso- and convective-scale systems and orographic forcings, which have a great impact on the weather of the region;

• The conventional synoptic analysis method is time-consuming and largely dependent on the space- Capacity-building is of paramount importance in West Africa as in other regions of the time availability of the weather developing world. records from the synoptic stations; models based on physical laws, which The success of the forecast depends • Upper-air and surface data are describe the complex behaviour of on how the physical processes have usually inadequate either because the atmosphere. Such models are been represented during the model of telecommunication problems used with success on time-scales simulation and not necessarily the or internal disturbances. This of a few days to months. The world features seen on the weather maps. The means that the region is not of the future will be dominated approach used by some forecasters well resolved in space and the by numerical weather forecasting to improve forecasts based on the atmospheric situation structure models and guidance based on the models or to “add value” to model and physical process operating output of those models. Numerical output is that of statistics techniques. in the atmosphere are not well models are currently being employed These include model output statistics, understood; in many parts of the world to simulate the perfect prognosis method and observed phenomena such as the the Kalman Filter method. The idea • Pressure and temperature development of fog, clouds, flash is to draw up an observed fi eld and tendencies are ill-defined and fl oods, storm surges, environmental compare it with the forecast fi eld and difficult to detect on synoptic pollution and degradation, ozone layer make appropriate error adjustments charts. Most synoptic systems depletion, climate change, etc. to obtain a new forecast fi eld. are quasi-stationary, yet small fluctuations can cause There may have been only one or Problems associated with considerable change in weather two complete numerical modelling NWP in the region parameters, especially rainfall. activities over West Africa to date. Forecast offi ces use model output Although the method has advantages products from world modelling in terms of the speed of providing Because of these shortcomings, and centres such as Météo-France, the model output products, there are the availability of the meteorological European Centre for Medium-Range certain challenges in the region. data distribution system, weather Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Numerical models are currently limited forecasting in the region gradually the Met Office, UK, as part of the by our incomplete understanding of shifted to numerical methods in the preparation of weather forecasts in the weather systems and how the 1990s. the region. The weather forecaster various atmospheric, land-surface receives printed weather maps from and oceanic components interact. In Numerical weather modelling centres on a daily basis addition, we are unable to transform prediction (NWP) through the meteorological data this incomplete understanding into distribution system or the Internet. mathematical representations. For This approach to weather forecasting These maps contain analysed and example, parameterization schemes is the development of mathematical forecast fi elds. such as the convection scheme used

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 51 in the model whicih provides output that will help them enhance the use clear air turbulence and dust haze, products in West Africa do not of NWP guidance in their forecast as well as temperature and pressure adequately represent the sub-grid process. extremes, every phase of fl ight has the weather systems. potential to be impacted by weather. Communication Commercial aviation in West Africa One major challenge requiring a infrastructure for deals with these adverse types of solution is in the area of capacity weather forecasting weather regularly and the cost building. Scientists in this specialized in West Africa implication is signifi cant, aside from fi eld are lacking and young students the discomfort and anxiety caused to should be encouraged to study Accurate weather forecasting travellers. Casualty mitigation has a mathematics and physics, which is impossible without a fairly substantial economic impact. In the are foundation courses for numerical sophisticated level of technological last couple of years, a considerable modelling. Also, visits to world development. The development of reduction in accidents and incidents modelling centres are important to sensors to detect the present state of in air travel has been recorded. acquire skills, as the field is very the atmosphere and a communication dynamic. system to collect and disseminate the data rapidly are essential. Meteo- Ensemble forecasting rological equipment has evolved Acknowledgment and satellite-based meteorological This work was prepared with support Forecasters in West Africa have telecommunication systems have from START International under the always understood the value of replaced the old analogue ones. START/PACOM Award 2005 through a examining multiple NWP forecasts to grant from the US NSF (GEO-0203288). help produce a more reliable forecast. It was carried out at the Regional Socio-economic Meteorological Training Centre, Lagos, However, this depends on the NWP benefi ts of weather Nigeria. products available from the different forecasting in the region global and regional modelling centres. West African forecasters are familiar Weather forecasts in West Africa play References with two types of ensemble forecasts. an important role in the enhancement AFIESIMAMA, E.A. and Z. MUMBA, 2000: These are forecasts from different of socio-economic activities by Strategy at ACMAD in capacity models and forecasts from one model providing accurate weather and building in NWP for Africa. WMO but with different initial conditions. seasonal information, especially Bulletin, 49 (4), 373-375. What are available to the West rainfall and temperature. These vital African forecasters are the former. meteorological variables contribute AFIESIMAMA, E.A., 1999: The art of weather The forecast products common to to agricultural productivity and water- forecasting—a view from the Central Forecast Offi ce in Lagos, Nigeria. the region are those from centres resources management in the form WMO Bulletin, 48 (3), 296-298 such as ECMWF, Météo-France, the of early warnings. This is a region Met Offi ce, UK, and, most recently, whose population of more 200 million WMO, 1996: Methods of Interpreting the Global Forecast System. depends on agriculture. The seasonal Numerical Weather Prediction Output forecasts made annually at the African for Aeronautical Meteorology, WMO- No. 770. Ensemble prediction is a relatively new Centre of Meteorological Application tool for operational forecasting that for Development have helped in no allows for more rapid and scientifi cally small measure to provide information based comparisons of multiple model to farmers for improved agricultural forecasts. A more complex approach is productivity. The forecasts obtained to use various statistical and graphical from numerical models have also methods to combine multiple model been useful for impact assessment runs, each based on slightly different so as to provide adaptation strategies initial conditions or using slightly and mitigation options for extreme different model confi gurations and/ weather events. or parameterizations. In this way, they can include information about the Another critical aspect is that of level of uncertainty, the most likely reducing human casualties from forecast outcomes and probabilities hazardous weather. Aviation, although of those outcomes. With ensemble adjudged the safest mode of travel, is prediction products added to their still subject to the vagaries of weather. NWP toolkit, forecasters in the region From thunderstorms/lightning and now have another level of information downbursts, to wind shear and fog,

52 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Fifty years ago

for Maritime Meteorology, the measures ... the meteorologist International Radiation Conference can help considerably to make and the International Geophysical fungicide applications less costly Year 1957-1958. A few highlights are and more effective by indicating given below. (A full account of the to farmers the optimum times to January Bulletin 50 years ago will be spray—neither too late, when the available in the February 2007 edition damage is already done ... nor too of MeteoWorld on the Web: http:// early, when the protective layer on www.wmo.int/meteoworld/en/ the plants is apt to be washed off by rains and a substantial amount of new unprotected foliage will have Weather and potato grown before the disease is again blight in Chile on the move. The criteria [were] ... a minimum By P.M. Austin Bourke, Irish period of 12 hours with relative Meteorological Service humidity not below 90 per cent and temperature not below 90 per cent [This disease is caused by the fungus and temperature not below 10°C, Without the basic meteorological Phytophthora infestans.] Since no followed by at least four hours during data, the hydrologists, agriculturists, effective way to eradicate the disease which the foliage of the plants is wet aviation authorities, transport offi cials was known, the Chilean authorities owing to rain, drizzle, dew or wet fog. and economic planners—to mention adopted the introduction of more In the rainy area, these conditions only a few—are unable to tackle their resistant varieties of potato and are, as in Ireland, mostly associated problems on a sound basis. Priority in the use of fungicides to hinder the with low pressure systems and WMO technical assistance has always spread of the disease … Spraying often with the influx of maritime been given to building up meteorological was a costly business ... machinery tropical air masses. In the coastal services in countries where there is no for spraying was sparse and transport areas of north Chile where rainfall service at all or only a very rudimentary of equipment and materials was not is sparse and where crops must service ... the cover photograph shows a easy in a country where the potato be irrigated, the humid conditions WMO expert giving instruction to some growing regions stretched for over favouring blight come from the Afghan trainees in Kabul. a thousand miles of often difficult frequent fogs which are caused by terrain. the cold coastal Humboldt current Contents and which are often accompanied The life cycle of Phytophthora by morning drizzle, too light to make Fifty years ago, the main items infestans is controlled by any measurable contribution to the in the January Bulletin were environmental conditions ... In recorded precipitation. technical assistance, climatology, certain humid conditions, the fungus agrometeorology, radiation and forms spores outside the plant Weather ... favourable to blight ... radiosonde comparisons, the surface and it is at this stage that the is to be expected on an average of second session of the Commission disease is vulnerable to protective about one year in eight. In between

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 53 the seasons of widespread epidemic affected by the distribution, orienta- of the Norwegian Meteorological blight, local conditions in almost tion and confi guration of the great Institute, at Oslo on 21 September every year will lead to losses of yield land masses and water bodies over 1956. The presentation was made by in sheltered and humid locations. the Earth’s surface. the President of WMO, Mr André Viaut, Even in seasons of comparatively at a ceremony in the meteorological little disease on the foliage there is ... early investigators devoted much institute at Blindern. a risk of appreciable loss of crop due effort to developing standards of to washing down of the spores by instrumentation and exposure. At Mr Viaut spoke of the three aspects of rainfall to infect the tubers. the same time, the basic geographic Dr Hesselberg’s work—developing his quality of climatology was gradually meteorological service, conducting In order to provide data for a potato lost from view. To many people, the important scientific research, and blight forecasting service, the Chil- content and scope of climatology is collaborating at the international ean authorities proposed to set up only this—the measuring , recording level. He had actively participated a network of agrometeorological and averaging of standard meteoro- in international meteorology since stations at their agricultural experi- logical elements. … climatology, when 1919 and the eminent position which mental farms. The observations will circumscribed in this way, is sterile WMO now held among the UN also be applied to investigations into and unrewarding. specialized agencies was to a large the environmental aspects of other extent due to this “grand old man” plant diseases of economic impor- The fault lies, at least in part, with the of meteorology. tance to Chile, such as wheat rusts, climatologists who are responsible apple scab and sunfl ower rust. They for the collection and compilation of Membership of WMO will further be of value in planning and the basic data. introduction of new crops and plant Sudan became a WMO Member State varieties, in determining the water ... proper fi eld for study in climatology on 2 January 1957. WMO thus had requirements of crops as a prelude is not limited to the atmosphere alone 70 Member States and 25 Member to scientifi cally planned irrigation and but must include the land surface as Territories. in the many other aspects of Chilean well. … any region is a composite of agriculture in which weather plays an innumerable local climates; the cli- Postage stamps in important part. mate of the ravine, of the south-facing slope, of the hill top, of the meadow, honour of WMO Many other interests in the nation’s of the corn fi eld, of the woods, of the expanding economy—forestry, fi sh- bare rocky ledge. The United Nations would be issuing eries, tourism, building, sanitation, a set of two postage stamps in honour medicine, aviation, hydroelectric In recent years there have been of WMO on 28 January 1957. The work, water boards, etc.—stand to numerous examples of the applica- stamps would be for denominations gain considerable benefi t [from the tion of climatological principles in the of 3 and 8 US cents and would be of application of modern meteorological solution of practical problems in agri- the same design except that the name methods]. There is a growing reali- culture, industry and defence. I regard of WMO would be in English on the zation that the climate of Chile is as this as a wholesome and thoroughly 3 c stamp and in French on the 8 c much a part of her natural wealth desirable development. However in stamp. The stamps could be used as are her copper mines and nitrate order for our science to advance we for mail posted in the UN post offi ce deposits, and could be far more effi - must continually add to the store in New York. The stamps depicted a ciently utilized than at present in the of basic climatological knowledge. radiosonde balloon symbolizing the drive to heighten living standards. Applied and fundamental research globe and the worldwide range of in climatology must go forward side WMO’s activities. The task ahead by side ... Only by diligent effort can in climatology we hold for climatology its newly won respect. By C.W. Thornthwaite News and notes ... climates are not simple latitude belts. They [are] highly irregular areas Presentation of fi rst IMO exhibiting contrasts in moisture sup- ply and in wind movements as well Prize to Dr Hesselberg as solar heat, which are refl ections of the general circulation of the atmos- The fi rst IMO Prize was presented to phere and which, in turn, are strongly Dr Th. Hesselberg, former director

54 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Recently published

Review two decades. Unlike traditional monsoon in general and the Asian- monsoon meteorology, this book Australian monsoon in particular. describes the Asian monsoon system The Asian Monsoon as an interdisciplinary scientifi c theme Monsoon variability is considered incorporating the atmosphere, the over a broad range of time-scales, ocean and the land surface, all of from days to decades, and on which interact through physical, various spatial scales, from the chemical and biological processes. smallest mesoscale to continental and global scales. The great variety The book makes an important of monsoon weather is described Bin Wang (Ed.) contribution to the understanding and a comprehensive review of Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, of the monsoon environment by current knowledge and issues of the published in association with Praxis including analyses of paleoclimatic monsoon’s intraseasonal variations is publishing, Chichester, UK (2006), records, human influences and presented. A summary is given of the xlvii + 787 pp. ISBN 3-540-40610-7 impacts of the monsoon on the main features of interannual variability Price £ 154/US$ 259. economy and human health. It also and possible causes. Variability on contains new ideas that are expected the decadal to interdecadal time- to markedly improve predictions of scale is also addressed. Several Research into the Asian monsoon monsoon climate variations and chapters are devoted to improving has a long history but substantial anthropogenic changes. A distinctive the understanding of the monsoon progress has been made since the feature is that it combines modern system’s physical processes and its 1960s through a number of interna- observations with explanations of roles associated with the Earth’s climate tional and regional monsoon projects the physical principles governing system. They look at atmospheric and fi eld experiments. monsoon climate variations on internal dynamical processes on all time-scales, ranging from the mesoscale and on large and Understanding of the monsoon climate intraseasonal to tectonic. Most planetary-scales. Hydrological and its changes represents one of the chapters contain an authoritative processes are also discussed, as most diffi cult challenges to climate sci- review of the subject and highlight well as interactions of the monsoon ence because of the complexity of its conceptual breakthroughs, as well system with land- surface processes, interactions over a wide range of atmos- as frontier research issues. El Niño/Southern Oscillation-Asian pheric processes, as well as associated monsoon interactions and the role of interactions between the atmosphere, An overview describes the Asian the Tibetan Plateau. A fi rm basis for ocean and land. The Asian monsoon monsoon as a multiscale, coupled understanding the complex monsoon can have not only signifi cant regional atmosphere-ocean-land dynamic physics is thus laid. implications, but also important impacts system that interacts with other on the global climate system and glo- components of the Earth’s climate Numerical modelling and prediction bal climate prediction. system. The powerful boreal winter of monsoon activity is addressed. monsoon and Austral summer The governing dynamical controls The Asian Monsoon is the first monsoon over the maritime continent and physical representations that comprehensive book to bring together and Australia are considered, providing determine the potential predictability the knowledge gained over the past a comprehensive overview of the of monsoons are explored. Although

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 55 the dynamical models of the coupled Modelling and prediction of ISBN: 92-63-11004-2 ocean-atmosphere-land system oceanographic phenomena and Price: CHF 20 still have considerable difficulty climate are based on the integration in capturing the predictability, the of dynamic equations. The Equations Guide on the quality management discussions offer new ideas that are of Oceanic Motions derives and system for the provision of expected to contribute to noticeable systematically classifies the most meteorological service for improvements in monsoon climate common dynamic equations used international air navigation prediction in the coming decades. in physical oceanography, from those (WMO-No. 1001) describing large-scale thermohaline 2006; v + 54 pp. With regard to enhancing understand- circulations to those describing small- (F, R, S, in preparation) ing of the monsoon environment scale motions and turbulence. ISBN: 92-63-11001-8 and its societal infl uences, evidence Price: CHF 25 from palaeo record studies shows After establishing the basic dynamical that the Asian monsoon system has equations that describe all oceanic Guidelines on the undergone remarkable changes on motions, Müller then derives role, operation geological time-scales. A detailed approximate equations, emphasizing and management account is given of past monsoon the assumptions made and physical of National cycles according to geological, orbital processes eliminated. He distinguishes Hydrological and millennial and centennial time- geometric, thermodynamic and Services scales. In the future, anthropogenic dynamic approximations and the (WMO-No. 1003) infl uences, including land-use/cover acoustic, gravity, vortical and 2006; viii + 74 pp. changes and atmospheric composi- temperature-salinity modes of ISBN: 92-63-11003-4 tion changes on regional and global motion. Basic concepts and formulae Price: CHF 18 scales, may considerably affect the of equilibrium thermodynamics, future of the Asian monsoon. Possi- vector and tensor calculus, curvilinear ble human infl uences on the Asian coordinate systems and the kinematics Drought monitoring monsoon are discussed, with focus of fl uid motion and wave propagation and early warning: on agriculture and the economy. are covered in appendices. concepts, progress and future This book can be used as a compre- challenges (WMO- hensive interdisciplinary text for Recent WMO No. 1006) students, both undergraduate and 2006; 24 pp. graduate. It can also serve as a publications [ F ] (S in preparation) professional reference for research ISBN: 92-63-11006-9 scientists and professionals in many Technical regulations (WMO-No. 49) Price: CHF 15 fields. Most of the material in this Volume III—Hydrology book will also be of great value to Loose-leaf; updated by supplements non-specialists. when necessary Legal and 2006 edition Institutional aspects Ding Yihui [ A ] - [ C ] - [ E ] - [ F ] - [ R ] - [ S ] of Integrated Flood [email protected] ISBN : 92-63-15049-4 Management—Case Price: CHF 71 Studies New book received (WMO-No. 1004) Guidelines for the education and 2006; iv + 97 pp. The Equations of training of personnel in meteorology [ E ] Oceanic Motions and operational hydrology ISBN: 92-63-11004-2 (WMO-No. 258) Price: CHF 20 2006; Volume 1, Supplement No. 1 (F, R and S in preparation) 24 pp. Executive Council, 58th session (2006) P. Müller. Guide on meteorological observing (WMO-No. 1007) Cambridge University Press (2006). and information distribution systems 2006; CD-ROM ISBN 0-521-8553-6. for aviation weather services [ A ] - [ C ] - [ E ] - [ F ] - x + 291 pp. (WMO-No. 731) [ R ] - [ S ] Price: £45/US$ 80 2006; second edition, v + 30 pp. ISBN: 92-63-11007-7 (F, R, S in preparation) Price: CHF 20

56 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 News from the WMO Secretariat

Visits of the At the opening ceremony, Mr Jarraud Mr Silvo Žlebir, Director General made a presentation entitled of the Environment Agency of the Secretary-General “Climate information and services: Republic of Slovenia, and Mr Jožef leveraging opportunities and risk Roškar, Director of the Meteorology management”. The Conference, which Offi ce and Permanent Representative The Secretary-General, Mr Michel drew on experience presented by of Slovenia with WMO. Jarraud, recently made offi cial visits scientists and experts from European to a number of Member countries as National Meteorological Services, Peru briefl y reported below. He wishes research institutes, universities and to place on record his gratitude to private organizations, is one of the The Secretary-General visited Lima, those Members for the kindness and major regular events in European Peru on the occasion of the 14th hospitality extended to him. meteorology. session of Regional Association III (South America), which was held Cyprus During his visit, the Secretary- in Lima from 7 to 13 September General met with Mr Janez Podobnik, 2006. Mr Jarraud visited the On 15 September 2006, the Secretary- Minister of Environment and Spatial Ministry of Defence and met with General participated in the event Planning of Slovenia, as well as with the Minister, HE Ambassador Allan marking the offi cial launching of the Dr David Burridge, President of EMS, Wagner Tizón. WMO cartoon booklet “We care for our climate”, which was translated into Greek and published by the National Meteorological Service of Cyprus. During the ceremony, which was organized by the Meteorological Service and the Ministry of Education, Mr Jarraud thanked the Permanent Representative of Cyprus with WMO, Mr Kyriakos Theophilou, for an important contribution that has now been made available to all Members, through its publication on the WMO Website (Info showcase).

Slovenia

On 4 September, the Secretary-General Ljubljana, Slovenia, 4 September 2006 — The Secretary-General with some of the visited Ljubljana, Slovenia, on the participants in the Sixth Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society: occasion of the Sixth Annual Meeting Janez Podobnik, Minister of Environment (sixth from right); Jozef Roskar, Permanent of the European Meteorological Representative of Slovenia with WMO (second from right); Silvo Zlebir, Director-General Society (EMS) and the Sixth European of the Environmental Agency of Slovenia (fourth from left); and David Burridge, President Conference on Applied Climatology. of EMS (second from left)

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 57 Lima, Peru, 7 September the Permanent Mission of Benin to 2006 — Opening the United Nations and Chairman ceremony of the 14th of the LDCs Group; and Mr Om session of RA III Pradhan, representing the High Representative of UN Offi ce of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries.

China

On 18 September, the Secretary- General visited Nanjing, China, to The opening ceremony took place Offi ce in New York, on the occasion participate in the opening ceremony in the presence of Mr Renzo Chiri of the WMO special event on Weather, of the Tenth WMO Symposium on Márquez, Secretary-General of Climate and Water Services for Education and Training, which the Ministry of Defence; Mr Raúl Development and Disaster Mitigation was held at Nanjing University of Michelini, Acting President of RA in Least-Developed Countries (LDCs). Information Science and Technology III; and Mr Edison Díaz Villalta, Chief The event was organized as part of (NUIST). Mr Jarraud delivered an of the National Meteorological and the mid-term comprehensive global opening address and met with HE Hydrological Service and Permanent review of the Barbados Programme Mr Liang Baohua, Governor of Jiangsu Representative of Peru with WMO. of Action (BPoA) for the LDCs for the Provincial People’s Government; HE Ms Also present at the ceremony were decade 2001–2010. In his presentation, Huang Lixin, Vice Governor of Jiangsu; Mr Pablo Cisneros Andrade and Mr Mr Jarraud highlighted the role Mr Qin Dahe, Administrator of the Roberto Briceño Gordillo represent- of National Meteorological and China Meteorological Administration ing the Peruvian Ministry of Foreign Hydrological Services and stressed and Permanent Representative of Affairs and the General Commander the important relationships between China with WMO, and Mr Li Lianshui, of the Air Force, respectively. weather, climate and water and President of NUIST. the development constraints and The Secretary-General met with challenges of LDCs, in the context The general theme for the Symposium the permanent representatives of of the seven commitments of the was “Meteorological and hydrological Members present in Lima for discus- Barbados Programme of Action for education and training for disaster sions on weather, climate and water the LDCs. prevention and mitigation”. The issues, technical cooperation and the event covered three main topics, strengthening of the National Meteor- Attending the event were HE Ms namely: “Preparedness—prevention ological and Hydrological Services. Maria Mutagamba, Minister for Water and early warning”; Mitigation— and Environment of Uganda and emergency relief and rehabilitation”; Least Developed Countries Chairperson of the African Ministers’ and “Interdisciplinary training”. The Council on Water; HE Ambassador Symposium reviewed the most recent meeting, New York Filipe Chidumo, Permanent developments and emerging trends Representative of Mozambique to the in the fi eld. Mr Jarraud was awarded On 13 September, the Secretary- United Nations; Mr Oussou Edouard honorary membership of the Chinese General visited the United Nations Aho-Glele, Minister Counsellor of Meteorological Society.

Nanjing, China, September 2006 — Participants in the Tenth WMO Symposium on Education and Training

58 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 Russian Federation

On 26 September, the Secretary- General addressed the opening of the International Conference on the Problems of Hydrometeorological Security, which was organized in Mos- cow by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmen- tal Monitoring (Roshydromet). The Conference provided a comprehen- sive discussion forum focused on the problems related to monitoring and prediction of severe hydrometeoro- logical phenomena, aimed at reducing the vulnerability of populations and economic losses. Representatives of Norrköping, Sweden, 2 October 2006 — Presentation of the 51st IMO Prize (from left to academic and applied science insti- right): Messrs Michel Jarraud, Alexander Bedritsky, Lennart Bengtsoon and Ms Maria tutions, universities, experts from Agren Hydrometeorological Services, regional users of hydrometeorolog- ical information and representatives ceremony was held in Norrköping was attended by representatives of various economic sectors of more City Hall, in the presence of Ms Maria of missions in New York, as well as than 30 countries took part in the Agren, Director-General of the Swed- the media, the private sector and Conference. ish Meteorological and Hydrological foundations. Mr Jarraud delivered Institute and Permanent Represent- a statement on the commitment of Mr A.I. Bedritsky, head of Roshydromet ative of Sweden with WMO, as well WMO to the implementation of the and President of the WMO, opened the as other national and municipal Hyogo Framework For Action and Conference. The First Deputy of the authorities. stressed the critical role of National Chairman of the Government of the Meteorological and Hydrological Russian Federation, D.A. Medvedev, Management Oversight Services (NMHSs) in relation to hazard and the President of the Federation monitoring, risk assessment and early Council, S.M. Mironov, addressed Board for the Strengthened warning systems. The event included a the Conference. Other distinguished International Strategy press conference, in which Mr Jarraud speakers included A.N. Chilingarov, for Disaster Reduction further elaborated on the critical role Plenipotentiary Representative System, New York of WMO and NMHSs in disaster risk of the President of the Russian management. Federation for the International On 10 October, at the invitation of Polar Year 2007-2008; V.N. Lipinsky, the UN Undersecretary-General for Mozambique Chairman of the Intergovernmental Humanitarian Affairs, Emergency Relief Council for Hydrometeorology of the Coordinator and Chairperson of the The Secretary-General visited Commonwealth of Independent States; Management Oversight Board (MOB) Mozambique on the occasion of the and Vice-Admiral C. Lautenbacher, for the Strengthened International Seventh EUMETSAT Users Forum, Undersecretary of Commerce Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) which was held in Maputo from 16 to for Oceans and Atmosphere and System, the Secretary-General of 20 October 2006. At the opening of the Administrator of NOAA (USA). WMO participated in the second Forum, the Secretary-General made pre-Management Oversight Board, a keynote address in the presence Sweden meeting. of the President, HE Mr Armando Guebuza. On 2 October, the Secretary-General WMO is a member of the ISDR travelled to Sweden to join the Presi- System Management Oversight The Forum focused on the cooperation dent of WMO, Mr Alexander Bedritsky, Board, together with the World Bank, between EUMETSAT and its African in presenting the 51st International the International Federation of Red user community. In particular, the Meteorological Organization (IMO) Cross and Red Crescent Societies, forum reviewed the Preparation for the Prize to Lennart Bengtsson for his the United Nations Environment Use of METEOSAT Second Generation outstanding and lasting contributions Programme and the United Nations in Africa (PUMA) project and noted to the science of meteorology. The Development Programme. The meeting that lessons learnt should be used

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 59 New York, 27 October 2006 — The Secretary- General of WMO with the Secretary- General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, on the occasion of the second regular session of the United Nations System Chief Executives’ Board for Coordination Maputo, Mozambique, October 2006 — Mr Jarraud with Mr António Francisco Munguambe, Minister of Transport and Communications Coordination (CEB), which was in the opening ceremony of the 14th chaired by the UN Secretary-General session of the WMO Commission for and held at UN headquarters in Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM). to reinforce the proposed African New York. The session addressed a Present on the occasion were HE Monitoring of the Environment for number of high-priority programme Mr K. Sibal, Minister of Science and Sustainable Development (AMESD) and management issues, including Technology and Earth Sciences; project. The Forum also recognized employment and migration, the Mr P. S. Goel, Secretary, Ministry the important roles of WMO and the Least-Developed Countries (LDCs), of Earth Sciences; Mr S. Nair, Joint NMHSs in the implementation of relations with parliamentarians, Secretary, Department of Science AMESD, and made recommendations gender mainstreaming, the UN and Technology and Permanent for their enhanced involvement in System Staff College and results- Representative of India with WMO, the project. based management. Following the and Mr B. Lal, Director General of session, a CEB retreat took place at the India Meteorological Department The Secretary-General met with Greentree Estate in Manhasset (New (IMD), and Mr R.P. Motha, president the African Union Commissioner York), during which UN Executive of CAgM. for Rural Economy and Agriculture, Heads had discussions on system- Mrs Rosebud Kurwijila, and Mr wide coherence and reform issues. The Secretary-General presented Babagana Ahmadu, Director for the 20th Professor Dr Vilho Vaisala Rural Economy and Agriculture. India Award for an Outstanding Research Mr Jarraud also met with Mr F. Paper on Instruments and Methods Lucio, permanent representative of On 30 October the Secretary-General of Observation to Mr J.P. Pichamuthu Mozambique with WMO, and with visited New Delhi, India, to participate (India), for his paper entitled other permanent representatives of Members participating in the Forum. They exchanged views on preparations for the 14th session of Regional Association I (Africa), to New Delhi, India, be held in Burkina Faso, in February 31 October 2006 — 2007. The Secretary- General and HE Mr United Nations System Kapil Sibal present the 20th Professor Dr Chief Executives Board for Vilho Vaisala Award Coordination, New York for an Outstanding Research Paper On 27 October, the Secretary- on Instruments General participated in the second and Methods of regular session of the United Nations Observation to Mr System Chief Executives Board for J.P. Pichamuthu.

60 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 “Directional variation of visual range Samuel W. Departures due to anisotropic atmospheric MUCHEMI: brightness”. Scientifi c Offi cer, Virginia GUERRERO, Head, Public Weather Recruitment and Staff Development While in New Delhi, Mr Jarraud met Services Division, Unit, Human Resources Division, with HE Mr Sharad Pawar, Minister Applications Resource Management Department: of Agriculture, for discussions on Programme seconded to UNAIDS (Geneva) as weather, climate and sustainable Department, on 23 September 2006 Learning Adviser, on 1 October 2006 agriculture in India. He also visited Mr N.C. Vij, Vice-Chairman of the National Didier VAN DE VYVERE, Programme Disaster Management Authority. Anushia D. Manager with responsibility for MANOHARAN: Europe and the Newly Independent Internal Auditor, States, Development Cooperation Internal Oversight and Regional Activities Department: Staff Matters Offi ce, Offi ce of retired on 30 November 2006 the Secretary- Appointments General, on Valentin ANITCHKINE, Russian 28 September 2006 Translator, Linguistic Services and Leonard BARRIE: Publications Department: retired on Director, 31 August 2006 Atmospheric Victoria HANSON: Research and Administrative Valerie CLÉMENT, Administrative Environment Assistant to the Assistant, Satellite Programme Programme Director, Cabinet Offi ce: retired on 30 November 2006 Department, on and External 15 September Relations, on 1 November 2006

Jérôme D. LAFEUILLE: Chief, Alice BLUNT: Satellite-based Administrative Observing System Assistant, Satellite Division, WMO Programme Offi ce, on Space Programme 27 November 2006 Offi ce, on 21 September 2006

Guillaume SÉVERIN: Christophe JACOB: Information Chief, Joint WMO/ Technology EUMETNET Offi ce Assistant, (Brussels) on Information 1 October 2006 Technology Division, Resource Management Department, on 1 May 2006

Miguel CASAS GARATE: Information Technology Applications Manager, Infomation Technology Division, Resource Management Department, on 30 October 2006

WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 | 61 Calendar

Date Title Place 22–24 January Regional Workshop on the project “Preparedness Livingstone, Zambia for Climate Variability and Change, Natural Disaster mitigation and Enhanced Food Security in Africa 23–26 January Fifty-seventh session of the WMO Bureau Moscow, Russian Federation 24–26 January Joint Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Geneva Pollution (TF-HTAP) and WMO Workshop on Integrated Observations for Assessing Hemispheric Air Pollution 24–27 January JCOMM Expert Team on Maritime Safety Services - Angra dos Reis, Brazil Second session (ET-MSS-2) 25 January NGGIP—18th session of the Task Force Bureau Geneva 26 January Meeting of WMO Bureau and IOC Offi cers Moscow, Russian Federation 26–28 January Pre-session Meeting of the AR4 WG I and Paris, France Fifth Lead Author’s Meeting 29–31 January JCOMM Expert Team on Marine Accident Emergency Angra dos Reis, Brazil Support – fi rst session (ET-MAES-1) 29–31 January Second meeting of the EC Advisory Group on Disaster Geneva Prevention and Mitigation 29 January–1 February Tenth session of IPCC WG I Paris, France 29 January–2 February Third International Verifi cation Methods Workshop Reading, Emphasizing Training Aspect United Kingdom (co-sponsored by WMO) 29 January–9 February Training on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting New Delhi, India 31 January–2 February EC Task Team on WMO Integrated Observing System Geneva (EC-TT/WIGOS) 2–3 February 2007 Meeting of Presidents of Technical Commissions Geneva 5–6 February CAS International Core Steering Committee for THORPEX Geneva —sixth session (THORPEX ICSC-6) 12–13 February African Regional Seminar on African Meteorological Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso Services, Media and Development 14–23 February Regional Association I (Africa)—Fourteenth session Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso 13–15 March CBS Steering Group on Radio Frequency Coordination Geneva 19–22 March WMO International Conference on “Secure and Madrid, Spain Sustainable Living: Social and Economic Benefi ts of Weather, Climate and Water Services” 19–30 March CAS Joint Scientifi c Steering Committee of Open Geneva Programme Area Group on Environmental Pollution and Atmospheric Chemistry 20–24 March JCOMM Expert Team on Wind Waves and Storm Surge Geneva —second session (ET-WWSS-2) 26–27 March JCOMM Expert Team on Marine Climatology—second Geneva session 26–29 March Expert Meeting on Gender Mainstreaming Geneva 26–31 March Twenty-eighth session of the WMO/ICSU/IOC Joint Zanzibar, United Republic of Scientifi c Committee Tanzania 28–31 March JCOMM Expert Team on Sea Ice—third session Geneva

62 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 The World Meteorological Organization

WMO is a specialized agency of the Services serving in an individual Elected members of the Executive Council United Nations. Its purposes are: capacity; it meets once a year to M.L. Bah Guinea supervise the programmes approved P.-E. Bisch France (acting) • To facilitate worldwide cooperation by Congress. F. Cadarso González Spain (acting) in the establishment of networks M. Capaldo Italy (acting) of stations for the making of mete- Q.-uz-Z. Chaudhry Pakistan orological observations as well as The six regional associations J.J. Kelly United States of America hydrological and other geophysical are each composed of Members whose T. Hiraki Japan (acting) observations related to meteorology, task it is to coordinate meteorological, M. Konaté Mali (acting) and to promote the establishment hydrological and related activities within W. Kusch Germany (acting) and maintenance of centres charged their respective Regions. G.B. Love Australia (acting) with the provision of meteorological F.D. Freires Lúcio Mozambique (acting) and related services; J. Lumsden New Zealand • To promote the establishment and The eight technical commissions P. Manso Costa Rica (acting) maintenance of systems for the are composed of experts designated by J. Mitchell United Kingdom (acting) rapid exchange of meteorological Members and are responsible for study- A.D. Moura Brazil (acting) and related information; ing meteorological and hydrological J.R. Mukabana Kenya • To promote standardization of operational systems, applications and D. Musoni Rwanda (acting) meteorological and related obser- research. S. Nair India (acting) vations and to ensure the uniform I. Obrusnik Czech Republic (acting) publication of observations and H.H. Oliva Chile statistics; Executive Council Qin Dahe China • To further the application of mete- President J.K. Rabadi Jordan (acting) orology to aviation, shipping, water A.I. Bedritsky (Russian Federation) B.T. Sekoli Lesotho problems, agriculture and other First Vice-President Yap Kok Seng Malaysia (acting) human activities; A.M. Noorian (Islamic Republic of Iran) • To promote activities in operational Second Vice-President (three seats vacant) hydrology and to further close coop- T.W. Sutherland (British Caribbean eration between Meteorological and Territories) Hydrological Services; Third Vice-President • To encourage research and training M.A. Rabiolo (Argentina) Presidents of technical in meteorology and, as appropriate, commissions in related fi elds, and to assist in coor- Ex offi cio members of the Executive Aeronautical Meteorology dinating the international aspects of C. McLeod Council (presidents of regional such research and training. Agricultural Meteorology associations) J. Salinger Africa (Region I) Atmospheric Sciences The World Meteorological Congress M.S. Mhita (United Republic of Tanzania) M. Béland is the supreme body of the Organization. Asia (Region II) Basic Systems It brings together delegates of all A.M.H. Isa (Bahrain) A.I. Gusev Members once every four years to South America (Region III) Climatology determine general policies for the R.J. Viñas García (Venezuela) P. Bessemoulin fulfi lment of the purposes of the North America, Central America and Hydrology Organization. the Caribbean (Region IV) B. Stewart C. Fuller (Belize) Instruments and Methods of South-West Pacifi c (Region V) Observation The Executive Council A. Ngari (Cook Islands) J. Nash is composed of 37 directors of National Europe (Region VI) Oceanography and Marine Meteorology Meteorological or Hydrometeorological D.K. Keuerleber-Burk (Switzerland) P. Dexter and J.-L. Fellous

63 | WMO Bulletin 55 (4) - October 2006 WMO Bulletin - July 2006 | 63 Members

of WMO At 31 December 2006

States (181) Afghanistan Dominican Republic Mali Sudan Albania Ecuador Malta Suriname Algeria Egypt Mauritania Swaziland Angola El Salvador Mauritius Sweden Antigua and Barbuda Eritrea Mexico Switzerland Argentina Estonia Micronesia, Federated Syrian Arab Republic Armenia Ethiopia States of Tajikistan Australia Fiji Monaco Thailand Austria Finland Mongolia The former Yugoslav Azerbaijan France Morocco Republic of Macedonia Bahamas Gabon Mozambique Togo Bahrain Gambia Myanmar Tonga Bangladesh Georgia Namibia Trinidad and Tobago Barbados Germany Nepal Tunisia Belarus Ghana Netherlands Turkey Belgium Greece New Zealand Turkmenistan Belize Guatemala Nicaragua Uganda Benin Guinea Niger Ukraine Bhutan Guinea-Bissau Nigeria United Arab Emirates Bolivia Guyana Niue United Kingdom of Great Bosnia and Herzegovina Haiti Norway Britain and Northern Botswana Honduras Oman Ireland Brazil Hungary Pakistan United Republic of Tanzania Brunei Darussalam Iceland Panama United States of America Bulgaria India Papua New Guinea Uruguay Burkina Faso Indonesia Paraguay Uzbekistan Burundi Iran, Islamic Republic of Peru Vanuatu Cambodia Iraq Philippines Venezuela Cameroon Ireland Poland Viet Nam Canada Israel Portugal Yemen Cape Verde Italy Qatar Zambia Central African Republic Jamaica Republic of Korea Zimbabwe Chad Japan Republic of Moldova Chile Jordan Romania Territories (6) China Kazakhstan Russian Federation Colombia Kenya Rwanda British Caribbean Territories Comoros Kiribati Saint Lucia French Polynesia Congo Kuwait Samoa Hong Kong, China Cook Islands Kyrgyzstan Sao Tome and Principe Macao, China Costa Rica Lao People’s Democratic Saudi Arabia Netherlands Antilles Côte d’Ivoire Republic Senegal and Aruba Croatia Latvia Serbia New Caledonia Cuba Lebanon Seychelles Cyprus Lesotho Sierra Leone Czech Republic Liberia Singapore Democratic People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Slovakia Republic of Korea Lithuania Slovenia Democratic Republic of Luxembourg Solomon Islands the Congo Madagascar Somalia Denmark Malawi South Africa Djibouti Malaysia Spain Dominica Maldives Sri Lanka

64 | WMO Bulletin 56 (1) - January 2007 www.spacecom.vcs.de

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The CD-Rom contains (in pdf format):

• WMO Bulletin 56 (1) – January 2007 • WMO at a glance (WMO-No. 990) • World Meteorological Day 2007 – Polar meteorology: understanding global impacts brochure (WMO-No. 1013) and poster • MeteoWorld – October 2006 and December 2006 • World Climate News No. 30 – January 2007 World Meteorological Organization

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ISSN 0042-9767