Post Exit Poll Analysis 10 Key Target States

Prepared by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates December 2020

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 1 2020 Exit Poll Analysis State Groupings We focused on the 10 battleground states that President Trump won in 2016, but split in 2020.

• The “Flipped” group are the five states won by Trump/Pence in 2016, but won by Biden in 2020 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. • The “Held” group are the five most competitive states won by Trump/Pence in both 2016 and 2020 – , Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 2 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Data Sources • Data is from the ’s exit polls and AP’s VoteCast. • Each state grouping’s data is an average of the individual states. • Sample in each state grouping was:

NEP Exit AP Poll VoteCast Flipped 15,787 18,100

Held 23,825 17,456

Total 39,612 35,556

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 3 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Key Take-Aways: (1) • Despite turnout for both state groups being MORE GOP in 2020 than 2016, POTUS lost ground in both groups largely due to a massive against POTUS among Indies in both state groups and more GOP ‘leakage’ in “Flipped” states. • Racially, POTUS suffered his greatest erosion with White voters, particularly White Men in both state groups. However, he made double digit gains with Hispanics in both groups, while his performance among Blacks was virtually the same as 2016. • POTUS lost ground with almost every age group in both state groupings, but he lost the most with voters 18-29 and 65+ in “Flipped” states. Worse was the double-digit erosion he suffered with White College educated voters across the board. • Voters who did not vote in ’16 but voted in ’20 accounted for roughly 1-in-6 voters and they broke markedly for Biden, especially in the “Flipped” states. 1-in-10 voters say they decided their vote in the final month of the campaign, and contrary to conventional wisdom, they broke in Biden’s favor in both state groups. • While Biden’s image was underwater in both state groups, POTUS’s was more so in the “Flipped” states, while he was a net positive in the “Held” states. • VPOTUS held a marked image advantage over Harris in both state groups where his image was net positive. Harris’s image was worse than Biden’s in both state groups.

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 4 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Key Take-Aways: (2) • While a majority of voters said they didn’t find either Presidential candidate honest or trustworthy, Biden held a double-digit advantage over POTUS, especially in the “Flipped” states. • POTUS’s overall job approval was mixed with a majority of voters in the “Flipped” states disapproving while voters in the “Held” states were split down the middle. However, POTUS earned negative marks on handling of Coronavirus (CV) in both groups, particularly in flipped states. • Conversely, Fauci garnered nearly a 3 to 1 positive job approval on handling of CV overall with Fauci detractors overwhelmingly for POTUS while Fauci supporters voted for Biden by wide margins, especially in “Flipped” states. • Coronavirus (CV) was the top issue in both state groups – more so in “Flipped” states – and Biden carried those voters nearly 3 to 1. The economy ranked second and POTUS crushed Biden with those voters by a 6 to 1 or better margin. • Voters in “Flipped” states somewhat more negative about the economy than in “Held” states, and voters in “Held” states more likely to choose POTUS to handle the economy.

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 5 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Key Take-Aways: (3) • While majorities of voters in both state groups prioritized stopping the spread of CV over re-opening the economy, the majority was markedly larger in “Flipped” states. And pluralities in both groups picked Biden as best able to handle CV, not surprisingly by a larger margin in the “Flipped” states. • State groups were split on whether or not CV was under control with a slight majority of “Flipped” state voters saying no and a majority of “Held” saying yes. And voters were highly polarized based on these positions with voters who say it is under control voting overwhelmingly for POTUS and those who say it isn’t voting overwhelmingly for Biden regardless of state group. • Three-quarters of voters in both state groups favored public mask mandates. Not surprisingly those who opposed them voted overwhelmingly for POTUS with those who favored them supporting Biden, particularly those in the “Flipped” states. • 9-in-10 voters in both groups said that SCOTUS was a factor in deciding their vote. Ironically, those who said it was a factor voted for Biden in both state groups while those who said it wasn’t a factor voted for POTUS by large margins.

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 6 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Popular Vote Shift • President Trump lost 3 net points in the Flipped states vs only 1 net point in the Held states.

Flipped Held 60% 51% 52% 49% 49% 50% 50% 47% 45% 47%

40%

30%

20%

10% +2 Trump -3 -1 +6 Trump -1 +5 0% 2016 - Flipped 2020 - Flipped 2016 - Held 2016 - Held

Trump Clinton/Biden Net Trump

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 7 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Trends Among Key Demographics

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 8 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Party Share of Electorate • In both the Flipped and Held groupings, the electorates were more Republican in 2020 than they were in 2016.

Flipped Held 50%

45% 38% 38% 40% 36% 34% 34% 35% 35% 32% 33% 32% 30% 30% 30% 28%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5% -2 GOP +6 +4 +3 GOP +5 +8 0% 2016 - Flipped 2020 - Lost 2016 - Held 2016 - Held

Republican Democrat Independent Net GOP

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 9 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Vote by Party • In 2016, Trump won Independents by double digits in both the Flipped and Held groupings. They shifted against him significantly in 2020. • Similar patterns in shifts with GOP voters becoming more hardened in support for Trump but Dem voters picking Biden by an even larger margin than they did Hillary. Though POTUS did “leak” more GOP voters in Flipped states.

Flipped Held

Net Net Net Net Net Net Trump Clinton Trump Biden Trump Clinton Trump Biden Trump Trump Shift Trump Trump Shift

Republican 90 7 +83 92 7 +85 +2 Republican 90 7 +83 94 6 +88 +5

Independent 50 40 +10 44 53 -9 -19 Independent 51 39 +12 46 51 -5 -17

Democrat 8 90 -82 4 95 -91 -9 Democrat 9 90 -81 5 94 -89 -8

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 10 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Vote by Race/Ethnicity & Gender • Dropoff was evident among White voters, especially men. • Improvement with Hispanic voters was not enough to cancel out losses among White voters.

Flipped Held

Net Net Net Net Net Net Trump Clinton Trump Biden Trump Clinton Trump Biden Trump Trump Shift Trump Trump Shift

White 59 36 +23 57 42 +15 -8 White 62 33 +29 62 37 +25 -4

Black 7 91 -84 8 91 -83 +1 Black 9 86 -77 11 88 -77 -

Hispanic 30 65 -35 36 61 -25 +10 Hispanic 32 62 -30 40 58 -18 +12

White men 65 30 +35 61 38 +23 -12 White men 68 27 +40 66 32 +34 -6

White White women 54 42 +12 54 45 +9 -3 women 58 38 +20 58 41 +17 -3

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 11 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Vote by Age & Education • Voters over 65 shifted away from POTUS in the states that flipped but largely stuck by his side in the states that he held. • White voters with college degrees were a huge loss for POTUS while those without college degrees stayed in POTUS’s column by a larger margin in the states we held than those that flipped.

Flipped Held

Net Net Net Net Net Net Trump Clinton Trump Biden Trump Clinton Trump Biden Trump Trump Shift Trump Trump Shift

18-29 38 54 -17 37 60 -24 -7 18-29 39 52 -12 40 56 -16 -4

30-44 42 50 -8 46 52 -7 +1 30-44 47 46 +2 47 50 -3 -5

45-64 54 42 +12 53 46 +7 -5 45-64 56 42 +14 55 44 +12 -2

65+ 55 42 +13 52 47 +5 -8 65+ 58 40 +17 58 42 +16 -1

White Col+ 52 43 +9 47 52 -5 -14 White Col+ 58 37 +21 51 48 +3 -18

White

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 12 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Voted in 2016 vs. Not • A large majority of voters in November’s election also said they voted in 2016, while about 1-in-6 did not. • POTUS narrowly won those who had voted in 2016 in the Flipped states, and won them in the Held states by 8. • Biden won those who didn’t vote in 2016 in both groups, by a larger margin in the Flipped states. Vote History Vote – Voted in 2016 Vote – Did Not Vote in 2016 100% 100% 90% 85% 84% 90% 80% 80%

70% 70% 60% 60% 53% 56% 53% 50% 49% 50% 50% 45% 42% 45% 40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 15% 16% 20%

10% 10% +70 +68 +1 +8 -14 -8 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held Flipped Held

Voted in 2016 Did Not Net Voted Trump Biden Net Trump

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 13 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Impact of Late Deciders • While most had their minds made up before the last month, 1-in-10 decided late. • POTUS needed late deciders to break in his direction in the states we flipped, but that did not materialize.

Decided Presidential Vote Vote – Decided in Last Month 100% 100% 88% 90% 86% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 60% 50% 49% 50% 50% 45% 46%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20% 11% 10% 10% 10% -5 -3 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held

In the Last Month Before That Trump Biden Net Trump

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 14 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Candidate Images and Ratings

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 15 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Trump & Biden Image • POTUS’s image is stronger in the states that were held, while the reverse is true for Biden.

Trump Image Biden Image 60% 60% 52% 52% 51% 49% 50% 50% 48% 48% 50% 47%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10% -4 1% +3 1% -1 1% -5 1% 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held

Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Net Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Net Favorable

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 16 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Pence & Harris Image • Pence’s image is in positive territory in both state groupings, especially the states that were held. • On the other hand, Harris is underwater in the Flipped and Held groups.

Pence Image Harris Image 60% 60% 52% 52% 49% 49% 50% 47% 50% 46% 44% 42% 40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10% 6% 4% 5% 5% +2 +8 -3 -10 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held

Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Net Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Net Favorable

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 17 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Trump & Biden Honest/Trustworthy • Biden had a clear edge over POTUS on being seen as honest & trustworthy in both state groupings.

Trump – Honest & Trustworthy Biden – Honest & Trustworthy 70% 70% 59% 60% 57% 60% 52% 52% 50% 50% 48% 48% 41% 43% 40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10% -18 -14 -4 -4 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held

Yes No Net Yes Yes No Net Yes

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 18 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Trump Job Approval & CV Job Approval • POTUS’s job approval was split dead even in the Held states, and narrowly underwater in those that flipped. • Marginally worse off on his CV job approval compared to his overall.

Trump Job Approval Trump CV Job Approval 60% 60% 54% 52% 51% 48% 50% 50% 49% 50% 50% 46%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10% -4 -8 -2 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held

Approve Disapprove Net Approve Approve Disapprove Net Approve

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 19 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Fauci CV Job Approval • Dr. Fauci had a very strong job approval in both groupings, with nearly 3-in-4 voters approving of the job he did. • Biden won those who approved by significant margins, especially in the states that he flipped.

Fauci CV Job Approval Vote – Approve Fauci Vote – Disapprove Fauci 100% 100% 90% 90% 83% 83% 80% 72% 73% 80% 70% 70% 63% 58% 60% 60%

50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 35% 28% 30% 27% 30%

20% 20% 15% 15%

10% 10% +44 +46 -28 -18 +68 +68 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held Flipped Held

Approve Disapprove Net Approve Trump Biden Net Trump

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 20 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Issues and Impacts

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 21 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Most Important Issue • Coronavirus was the most important issue followed by the economy. Significant falloff after those two big issues. • While POTUS dominated among voters focused on the economy, Biden won Coronavirus voters, which was a bigger share of the electorate, especially in the Flipped states. Most Important Issue Flipped Held 45% 42% Net Net 39% Trump Biden Trump Biden 40% Trump Trump

35% 30% Coronavirus 26 73 -47 28 71 -43 30% 28%

25% Economy 84 15 +69 85 13 +75

20% Health care 15% 34 64 -30 38 61 -23 9% 10% 10% 7% 7% Racism 18 80 -62 22 76 -54 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 1% 1% Law 0% 82 17 +65 81 17 +64 Flipped Held Enforcement Climate Coronavirus Economy Health care 15 82 -67 15 83 -68 Racism Law Enforcement Immigration Change Abortion Climate Change Foreign Policy

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 22 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Impact of the Economy • Opinions of the state of the economy were mixed rather than an area of strength. • POTUS’s edge on the economy was more defined in the states we held vs. those that flipped.

State of Economy Better to Handle Economy 60% 60% 54% 49% 50% 51% 51% 50% 48% 50% 47% 43%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10% -1 +3 +4 +11 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held

Excellent/Good Fair/Poor Net Excellent/Good Trump Biden Net Trump

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 23 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Impact of Coronavirus • Voters prioritized stopping the spread of coronavirus over reopening the economy in both groupings, larger in the states that flipped. • Biden was seen as better to handle coronavirus than POTUS by 9-points in the Flipped group and 4-points in the Held.

Prioritize Economy or CV Better to Handle CV 70% 70% 60% 60% 57% 60%

50% 50% 48% 43% 45% 40% 39% 41% 40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10% -20 -14 -9 -4 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held

Fix Econ/Spread CV Limit CV/Damage Econ Net Fix Econ Trump Biden Net Trump

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 24 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Impact of Perceived CV Level of Control • The electorates were divided on whether CV was at least somewhat under control when they went to vote in November, slightly better in the Held states. • Perception of control was closely linked to vote, with POTUS doing well with those who thought it was under control, but Biden winning most of those who said not at all under control. Level of CV Control Vote – At Least Smwt Under Control Vote – Not at All Under Control 100% 100%

90% 90% 83% 84% 83% 81% 80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 52% 60% 49% 51% 48% 50% 50%

40% 40%

30% 30% 18% 20% 20% 15% 15% 15%

10% 10% -2 +4 +68 +69 -68 -63 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held Flipped Held

Completely/Mostly/Smwt Not at All Net Control Trump Biden Net Trump

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 25 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Mask Mandates • Three quarters of voters favored mask mandates both in the Flipped and Held groups. • Biden ran up the score with this large majority of voters, especially in the states that flipped.

Public Mask Mandates Vote – Favor Mandate Vote – Oppose Mandate 100% 100%

90% 90% 87% 87%

80% 75% 76% 80% 70% 70% 64% 58% 60% 60%

50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 35% 30% 25% 24% 30% 20% 20% 11% 11% 10% 10% +50 +52 -29 -18 +76 +76 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held Flipped Held

Favor Oppose Net Favor Trump Biden Net Trump

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 26 2020 Exit Poll Analysis Impact of Supreme Court • While the vast majority of voters said the Supreme Court was a factor in their vote, POTUS did worse among this group than he did among those who said it was not, a change vs. four years ago.

Factor in Vote Vote – SC Factor in Vote Vote – SC Not a Factor in Vote 100% 100% 90% 90% 90% 90%

80% 80% 71% 74% 70% 70%

60% 60% 52% 48% 51% 50% 50% 46%

40% 40% 27% 30% 30% 24% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 10% +80 +80 -6 -3 +44 +50 0% 0% Flipped Held Flipped Held Flipped Held

Factor Not a Factor Net Factor Trump Biden Net Trump

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding 27 2020 Exit Poll Analysis