Preparatory Study for Lrt Line2 Extension Project

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Preparatory Study for Lrt Line2 Extension Project REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT AUTHORITY PREPARATORY STUDY FOR LRT LINE2 EXTENSION PROJECT FINAL REPORT OCTOBER 2011 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS CO., LTD. KATAHIRA & ENGINEERS INTERNATIONAL TONICHI ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS, INC. EID JR(先) - 11 146 REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT AUTHORITY PREPARATORY STUDY FOR LRT LINE2 EXTENSION PROJECT FINAL REPORT OCTOBER 2011 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS CO., LTD. KATAHIRA & ENGINEERS INTERNATIONAL TONICHI ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS, INC. PREPARATORY STUDY FOR LRT LINE 2 EXTENSION PROJECT DRAFT FINAL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS LOCATION MAP ABBREVIATION INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1 BACKGROUND & NECESSITY 1.1 Manila Transport Sector Condition ............................................................................................1-1 1.1.1 General................................................................................................................................1-1 1.1.2 Road Condition ...................................................................................................................1-3 1.1.3 Urban Railway Condition ...................................................................................................1-3 1.1.4 Railway Sector Future Projects...........................................................................................1-5 1.2 Confirming Transportation Sector’s Policies and High-priority Projects.................................1-10 1.2.1 Master Plan for Transportation in Metro Manila ..............................................................1-10 1.2.2 Prioritized Transportation Projects....................................................................................1-10 1.2.3 Railway Sector High-Priority Projects..............................................................................1-12 1.2.4 PPP Projects......................................................................................................................1-13 1.3 Review of Legal Framework ....................................................................................................1-14 1.3.1 Foreword ...........................................................................................................................1-14 1.3.2 PPP in the Philippines .......................................................................................................1-14 1.3.3 Methodology of Legal Review..........................................................................................1-16 1.3.4 The Laws Comprising the Legal Framework....................................................................1-16 1.3.5 The Enabling Law (General) – BOT Law.........................................................................1-18 1.3.6 The Enabling Laws (Sector-Specific) – Decrees and Charters .........................................1-22 1.3.7 Specific Laws – Government Procurement Reform Act (GPRA).....................................1-23 1.3.8 The Impact of RA-9184 and its attendant Executive Order’s...........................................1-25 1.3.9 Application of the Legal Framework to LRT2 Extension Project – PPP Scheme ............1-26 1.3.10 Amendment to the BOT Law............................................................................................1-27 1.4 Review of Transportation Sector PPP Projects, Mobilization of Private Resources and Privatization in the Philippines ................................................................................................1-30 1.4.1 Rail Transport PPP Projects ..............................................................................................1-30 1.4.2 Road Transport PPP Projects.............................................................................................1-34 1.4.3 Air Transport PPP Projects................................................................................................1-36 1.4.4 Sea Transport PPP Projects ...............................................................................................1-39 1.4.5 Realistic Eligibility and Requirements for participation in this project............................1-42 1.5 Overview of Implementing Agency..........................................................................................1-43 1.5.1 Outline of Implementing Agency......................................................................................1-43 1.5.2 Project Implementing Organization ..................................................................................1-50 i 1.5.3 Evaluation of Capacity of Implementing Agency and Necessary Measures for Capacity Enhancement......................................................................................................1-51 1.5.4 Overview of existing LRTA Infrastructure........................................................................1-52 1.6 Financial Analysis of Executing Agency..................................................................................1-55 1.6.1 Executing Agency.............................................................................................................1-55 1.6.2 Financial System of Executing Agency ............................................................................1-55 1.6.3 Financial Situation of Executing Agency..........................................................................1-56 1.6.4 LRTA Financial Restructuring ..........................................................................................1-59 1.6.5 Issues and Matters for the Executing Agency in terms of Project Implementation Capacity ............................................................................................................................1-61 1.6.6 Description of Risks..........................................................................................................1-62 1.7 Clarification of Issues and review of development/business plans of other implementing institutions in Manila metropolitan area...................................................................................1-64 1.7.1 Review of development/business plans of other implementing institutions .....................1-64 1.7.2 Establishing challenges of the implementing institution...................................................1-68 1.8 Confirming Assistance Policies and Programs of other Donors for Transport Sector..............1-69 1.8.1 PDF and International Development Community.............................................................1-69 1.8.2 The World Bank ................................................................................................................1-70 1.8.3 Asian Development Bank .................................................................................................1-71 1.8.4 AusAID on National Transport Plan.................................................................................1-72 1.8.5 Necessity of the Project by Reviewing Other Donors' Projects and Assistance ...............1-72 1.9 Confirming Necessity of Project...............................................................................................1-73 CHAPTER 2 DEMAND FORECAST 2.1 Review of passenger count in LRT line 2...................................................................................2-1 2.1.1 Average daily passenger......................................................................................................2-1 2.1.2 Hourly Peak Load Passengers on Board .............................................................................2-1 2.1.3 Fare revenue........................................................................................................................2-2 2.1.4 Passenger count target.........................................................................................................2-3 2.2 Examination of extension routes ................................................................................................2-3 2.3 Creation of modal split models...................................................................................................2-4 2.3.1 Previous modal split model in Metro Manila......................................................................2-4 2.3.2 SP survey.............................................................................................................................2-5 2.3.3 Modal split model .............................................................................................................2-10 2.4 Demand forecast for the extended routes .................................................................................2-10 CHAPTER 3 DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECT PLAN 3.1 Review of Standards and Specifications of Existing Railway Facilities and Systems ...............3-1 3.1.1 Railway Civil Engineering and Facilities ...........................................................................3-1 3.1.2 The Issue of Existing Civil Structure ..................................................................................3-4 3.1.3 The Issue of Railway System..............................................................................................3-8 3.2 Geotechnical Survey.................................................................................................................3-11 3.2.1 Geology in Metro Manila..................................................................................................3-11 3.2.2 Geology in Metro Manila..................................................................................................3-15
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