INIS-mf-_]473J
IC Consult ERM Energy COWIconsult (with Technical Assistance of EU-PHARE) and Lithuanian Energy Institute
it
Republic of Lithuania National Energy Strategy
Volume II: Background Material for Strategy Development Final Report
December 1993
VOL IC Consult ERM Energy COWIconsult (with Technical Assistance of EU-PHARE) and Lithuanian Energy Institute
Republic of Lithuania National Energy Strategy
Volume II: Background Material for Strategy Development Final Report
December 1993 Introduction to Volume II
The Final Report of the National Energy Strategy is laid out in two volumes. Volume I is a complete and self-explanatory description of the National Energy Strategy inclusive of all information necessary to understand the development and justification of the Strategy.
Volume II presents supplementary Background Material collected and analysed during the course of the project. Volume II consists of two parts: PART A (Sources and Methods) and PART B (Special Subsector Issues).
PART A contains seven chapters. The subject of Chapter 1 is to integrate the material of this volume into the analytical approach as a whole and to give an outline of the tools applied in the Strategy development. Reference data provided in Chapter 2 summarizes the information as to the past energy consumption and the future economic development. Chapter 3 compiles basic parameters and assumptions with regard to energy forms, costs, the economic development as laid down for use in the project. Chapter 4 discusses in detail the projection of energy demand. Chapter 5 draws up the Projects under consideration. Chapter 6 presents key results of energy scenario computations, and Chapter 7 provides energy scenario indicators and assessment information.
PART B of this Volume II contains full reporcs regarding topics, which have only briefly been addressed in Volume I. CONTENTS PAGE
A SOURCES AND METHODS 7
1. APPROACH 1 1.1 OVERVIEW 1 12 APPLIED TOOLS: ENERGY TOOLBOX 1
2. REFERENCE DATA 3 2.1 MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS (WORLD BANK, ME) 3 12 ENERGY BALANCE AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION (1990-1992) 6
3. BASIC PARAMETERS AND ASSUMPTIONS 15 3.1 MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS CONSIDERED WITHIN THE ENERGY STRATEGY 15 32 DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT AND URBAN-RURAL SPLIT 24 33 COST/PRICE DEFINITIONS AND PROJECTIONS 29 3.4 DEFINITION OF ENERGY FORMS 36 3.5 EMISSION COEFFICIENTS 37
4. PROJECTION OF ENERGY DEMAND 43 4.1 CONCEPTUAL CONSIDERATIONS 43 42 CHOSEN APPROACH 43
5. PROJECTS 49
6. RESULTS OF ENERGY SCENARIO COMPUTATIONS 51 6.1 RESULT TABLES INFORMATION 51 62 RESULT TABLES FOR SELECTED ENERGY SCENARIOS 51
7. SCENARIO INDICATORS AND ASSESSMENT 71
B SPECIAL SUBSECTOR ISSUES 75
B.I ELECTRICITY SUBSECTOR: PROPOSALS FOR A TECHNICAL AUDIT 77
B2 LEGAL/INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES: ASSESSMENT OF THE LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK IN LITHUANIA 87 LIST OF FIGURES PAGE
Figure 2.1.1 GDP Growth Scenarios (WB, ME) 5
Figure 22.1 Development of Final Energy Consumption by Energy Forms, 1990 to 1992 12
Figure 222 Development of Final Energy Consumption by End-use Sectors, 1990 to 1992 13
Figure 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Scenarios Used in the Strategy Study 17
LIST OF TABLES PAGE
Table 22.1 Energy Balance 1990 8
Table 222 Energy Balance, Conversion Sector in Detail, 1990 9
Table 223 Energy Balance, End-use Sector in Detail, 1990 10
Table 22.4 Development of Final Energy Consumption by Sectors and Energy
Forms, 1990 to 1992 11
Table 22.5 Large Industries, Energy Consumption 1990 14
Table 3.1.1 Sectoral Growth Rates and Composition of GDP - Moderate Reforms-Scenario 18 Table 3.12 Sectoral Growth Rates and Composition of GDP - Fast Reforms-Scenario 19
Table 3.13 Sectoral Growth Rates and Composition of GDP - Slow Reforms- Scenario 20
Table 3.1.4 Sub-sectoral Growth Rates and the Composition of Industrial Output - Moderate Reforms-Scenario 21
Table 3.1.5 Sub-sectoral Growth Rates and the Composition of Industrial Output - Fast Reforms-Scenario 22
Table 3.1.6 Sub-sectoral Growth Rates and the Composition of Industrial Output
- Slow Reforms-Scenario 23
Table 32.1 Population Development and Urban/Rural Split 1970 to 2010 25
Table 322 Population by Administrative Districts, Lithuania, 1979 and 1989 26
Table 323 Population of Cities, Lithuania, 1979 and 1989 27
Table 32.4 Development of Population/Living Conditions, Lithuania, 1990 to 2015 28
Table 33.1 Exchange Rates for Selected Currencies, 1980 to 1993 30 LIST OF TABLES PAGE
Table 332 Development of Crude Oil and Other Fuels Prices, 1990 to 2013 32
Table 333 Import and Export Price Projections by Energy Forms, 1990 to 2015 (Medium Projection) 34
Table 33.4 Domestic Energy Prices in Moderate Reforms-Scenario (USD/GJ) 36
Table 3.4.1 Energy Forms 36
Table 3.5.1 Emission Coefficients • Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) in kg/GJ Fuel Input 38
Table 3.5.2 Emission Coefficients - Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) in kg/GJ Fuel Input 39
Table 3.53 Emission Coefficients - Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in kg/GJ Fuel Input 40
Table 3.5.4 Emission Coefficients - Particulates (TSP) in kg/GJ Fuel Input 41
Table 4.2.1 Additional Conservation Effects and Total Intensity Reductions 47
Table 6.1a Results of Scenario 6A 52
Table 6.1b Results of Scenario 6A (first continuation) 53
Table 6.1c Results of Scenario 6A (second continuation) 54
Table 62a Results of Scenario 12 A 55
Table 62a Results of Scenario 12 A (first continuation) 56
Table 62b Results of Scenario 12A (second continuation) 57
Table 63a Results of Scenario IB 58
Table 63b Results of Scenario IB (first continuation) 59
Table 63c Results of Scenario IB (second continuation) 60
Table 6.4a Results of Scenario 5B 61
Table 6.4b Results of Scenario 5B (first continuation) 62
Table 6.4c Results of Scenario 5B (second continuation) 63
Table 65a Results of Scenario 9B 64
Table 6.5b Results of Scenario 9B (first continuation) 65 66 Table 65c Results of Scenario 9B (second continuation) 67 Table 6.6a Results of Scenario 1C 68 Table 6.6b Results of Scenario 1C (first continuation) 69 Table 6.6c Results of Scenario 1C (second continuation) LIST OF TABLES PAGE
Table 7.1 Indicators for Slow Reforms-Scenarios (2A, 4A, 6A, 8A, 10A, 12A) 72
Table 12 Assessment for Fast Reforms-Scenarios (2A, 4A, 6A, 8A, 10A, 12A) 72
Table 13 Indicators for Fast Reforms-Scenarios (1C, 3C, 5C, 7C, 9C, 11C) 73
Table 7.4 Assessment for Fast Reforms-Scenarios (1C, 3C, 5C, 7C, 9C, 11C) 73 PART A
SOURCES AND METHODS 1. APPROACH
1.1 OVERVIEW
The aim of the Strategy study is to determine the measures needed for modernising the Lithuanian energy system. The measures identified are referred to as Projects. Project Profiles specify the capital and time requirements for the implementation of the Projects and their expected effects on energy system performance.
Twenty-four energy scenarios are established, from which the Energy Strategy in terms of a set of appropriately scheduled Projects can be derived.
Each energy scenario comprises a demand scenario providing projections of the sectoral demands for final energy and a supply scenario presenting the required capacity installation and utilization levels of the energy production and conversion sectors for meeting the projected demands.
The projection of the energy demands is described in more detail in Chapter 4. Sectoral consumption and energy intensity figures are derived from energy balance and consumption figures presented in Chapter 2.2, demographic data used are assembled in Chapter 3.2.
For each demand scenario, a supply scenario is built so that:
• the resulting capacity installation and operation schedules meet the sectoral final demands;
• the scenario as a whole reflects the specific characteristics of the defined case.
1.2 APPLIED TOOLS: ENERGY TOOLBOX
Of the various software tools offered by (ERM Energy's) Energy Toolbox (ETB), the Disaggregated Demand Analysis System (DDAS) is applied to the task of creating the demand projections, and the Reference Energy System (RES) is used for balancing the supply required for meeting demands under the conditions of the scenarios.
The DDAS allows input, modelling, and projection of demand data, disaggregated as needed for use in the Strategy Study. It provides a computer-based environment for the organization of all the items of data for editing, debugging and solving the large number of scenarios, as under consideration in the Strategy Study, for instance. The environment is intended to mirror the structure of energy use of a given economy and is implemented as a pictorial representation displayed on-screen. Standard syntax equations are formulated specifically for this application.
1C CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE The RES simulates future energy supply for each scenario, for the years selected, and also calculates the cost of energy supply. Results are the primary supply of fuels, their processing, power generation, distribution to end-users, etc. Like the DDAS, RES allows for a user-defined disaggregation of all system components, ie the energy forms and the technologies under consideration. By its integration with the DDAS through a database and comprehensive data management facilities, the RES can directly access th~ annual demands calculated for a selected year for a scenario.
Input and output information can be prepared in both printed and graph form. Energy balances and costs reports can be generated by the Report Generator.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - C0W1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 2. REFERENCE DATA
2.1 MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS (WORLD BANK, ME)
Several economic scenarios have been developed by various institutions including the World Bank (WB) and the Lithuanian Ministry of Economics (ME). The common assumption of these scenarios consists in the flattening out of the economic slump experienced since the restitution of independence in 1990 during the years 1993 to 1994. The ensuing economic upturn varies from one scenario to the other as shown in Figure 2.1.1.
In addition to the overall economic growth rate both the World Bank scenarios as well as the ones developed by the ME are further disaggregated into the development of the individual economic sectors.
Given the present uncertainty on the economic situation and due to the lack of detailed sectoral assessments, the Strategy Study has based its scenarios on the projections given by the World Bank and the Ministry of Economics, which provides a large enough envelope within which the future macroeconomic development will fall with a high probability.
World Bank Scenarios (WB)
The WB-scenarios are based on an econometric model especially designed for East European Economies in a period of transition. This model is based on the so-called translog function approach, which allows for different specification of the production function and the taking account of own price and cross-price elasticities of the various energy forms. Thus, unlike the perceived unimpci tance of prices found often in engineering type models with an orientation on technical factors, the importance of prices in determining the level and structure of energy demand can be taken fully into account.
The WB projections comprise three scenarios:
WB-1: the "base case"-scenario is situated somewhere between the two other projections, as shown in Figure 2.1.1, and foresees a gradual move to the market economy at a somewhat lower speed than in the accelerated reforms-scenario.
WB-2: this scenario, denominated "accelerated reforms" assumes an accelerated pace of economic reforms, and concomitantly a stronger growth of GDP after passing the trough expected for 1993.
WB-3: this scenario, denominated "slow reforms", is based on a deferred implementation of the reforms deemed necessary, and consequently a lower GDP growth.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE Economic Scenarios of the Ministry of Economics (ME)
The scenarios of the Lithuanian Ministry of Economics are based on projections of the Lithuanian economy based on the input-output relationships established for the year 1987, which were accordingly modified to reflect a "target" economic structure for the year 2010.
No base case scenario is provided by ME, rather the two scenarios given should provide a corridor which delimits the range of possible future developments:
ME-1 the optimistic case (ME-1) foresees an economic structure similar to the one observed for Finland in 1992.
ME-Z the pessimistic scenario (ME-2) rather sticks to the present structure of the Lithuanian economy and is, consequently, accompanied by a lower economic growth.
The scenarios discussed above are concisely summarized in the following Figure 2.1.1. For the macroeconomic scenarios chosen for use in the Energy Strategy, see Chapter 3.1.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE Figure 2.1.1: GDP Growth Scenarios (WB, ME)
200-
180- ME-Optimistie -a- ME-Pessimistio -Wr- 160' WB-Base Scenario -S- WB-Acceferated 140' WB-Slow -AT NES Moderate Ref. 120'
100>
80' Legend: ME Ministry of Economics WB World Bank NES National Energy Strategy
1995 2000 200S 2010 201S
\C CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 2.2 ENERGY BALANCE AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION (1990-1992)
Energy Balance
The energy balance for the year 1990 is shown in Tables 2.2.1 to 2.2.3.
The main source of information is the Department of Statistics (DoS), to whom the industry (including electricity and fuel industry) is reporting regularly. Data preparation, analysis and evaluation for the energy balance was executed in the LEI.
This version of the energy balance has been elaborated in close cooperation with LEI. It differs somewhat from the energy balance of the Department of Statistics of Lithuania (DoS). The deviations arc mainly due to the modificalions described below which arise from a correction of the formerly used Soviet standard format for energy balances which does not correspond closely to the format used for Western economies. Also, in some cases, complementary information in the form of statistics on the energy use of individual companies and/or sectors was used.
The major changes made to the original balance sheet are:
Wood and Peat
These values are based on the evaluation carried out by DoS and LEI about non-commercial energy consumption.
Other Oil Products
"Other oil products" include the following items,. • oiher oil products • ship fuel a petrol coke
• light distillates
The 0.38 PJ of "gross domestic supply" represent used machine oil which is recycled.
Secondary heat In the old form, "secondary heat" had been included as an additional energy carrier and was appearing in row 1.1 (domestic gross supply). This has been corrected by eliminating the "carrier" secondary heat. The amount of 7.56 PJ of waste heat (as an industrial by-product) is shown in the transformation process under row 4 and energy carrier "heat" (heat includes both district heat and process heat).
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE Supply and Transformation
The primary supply of hydro and nuclear was based on the following equivalent values:
• Hydro: 123 gce/kWh (gee = gram coal equivalent)
• Nuclear gross: 343 gce/kWh (including station use), net: 373 gce/kWh
Losses
The losses shown in the energy balance are rather low. This is due to the fact that there is no metering in the residential sector and for small-scale industrial activities. The losses for these consumers are determined by calculations based on "design values".
It is assumed that a considerable share of losses is presently included in the values on final consumption.
Final Consumption
The structure of final consumption (line 9 in the energy balance sheet) has been reviewed and redefined according to the planning needs. The category "other" represents foremost military use (mainly for transportation and housmg of troops) and has not been merged into the other categories, as this energy demand category is expected to vanish in the future after the withdrawal of foreign troops. The consumption of the Lithuanian military forces should then be accounted for under the category "Public Service".
Final Energy Demand
The development of the final energy demand for the years 1990 -1992 is shown in Table 2.2.4 and in Figures 2.2.1 and 2.2.2.
Big Industrial Consumers
Table 2.2.5 enumerates the biggest industrial consumers together with then- consumption by fuel type. The values given should be considered as indicative only because they show some inconsistencies both in regard to the aggregated figures of the energy balance and within individual sectors.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 2
n Energy balance, 1990 Motor Jet Light Heavy Re- Liqui- Other Total InPJ Coal Coks Wood Crude gaso- kero- Diesel fuel fuel finery fied oil Natural fossil Hsat Nuclscr Hydro Elec- Total 8 +Peat oil line sene |_ oil oil Oil gat gas prod.* gas fuel tricity 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 i 1 1.1 Domestic gross supply 14.94 0.38 15.50 1.49 16.99 0.18 I + 1.2 Import 30.97 0.97 398.48 0.21 0.70 7.82 1.11 251.69 2.23 47.15 201.88 943.21 171.46 16.35 1.131.CZ SI 1.3 Export 41.87 11.75 47.64 1.76 240.38 7.09 40.64 6.12 397.25 59.51 456.76
+ 1.4 Marine bunkering 0.00
JO 1.5 Changes In stock -1.05 0.06 •0.09 -1.00 2.70 0.18 2.37 -0.35 8.94 •0.03 -0.15 11.58 11.58 9 1 Total Primary Energy Requirements (TPER) 32.02 0.91 15.03 399.6S -44.36 -11.23 •42.19 -0.30 2.37 0.00 -4.83 7.04 195.76 549.83 0.00 171.46 1.49 -43. IS 679.67 3 Transformation Input 2.46 0 1.47 393.00 0.00 0.00 3.02 97.93 0.00 0.00 0.97 140.31 643.69 0.00 171.46 1.49 0.00 816.64 nt 4.48 o + 4 Transformation output 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 87.46 28.13 89.92 17.79 133.87 11.51 11.84 12.39 0.00 392.91 143.18 0.00 0.00 102.36 638.45 n 5 Consumption of the energy branch 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.00 8.09 11.02 0.56 1.96 0.00 21.72 7.28 0.00 0.00 9.99 38.99 o = 6 Net domestic energy supply 29.56 0.91 13.56 6.66 43.04 16.90 44.68 13.01 30.17 0.49 6.45 16.50 55.45 277.38 135.90 0.00 0.00 49.21 462.49 en 7 Transportation and distribution losses 0.03 6.66 0.29 0.03 0.26 0.32 0.41 0.32 0.59 8.91 6.05 559 20.55
8 Final non-energy consumption 0 0.47 0.21 0.29 0.09 8.88 26.93 36.87 36.87
9 Final domaillc energy consumption (TFC) 29.56 0.91 13.07 0.00 42.56 16.91 44.37 12.75 29.87 0.00 6.12 7.41 27.92 231.45 129.77 0.00 0.00 43.01 404.83
9.1 Industry and construction (9.1+9.2) 1.26 0.82 0.47 0.00 1.36 0.00 3.70 0.98 25.26 0.00 0.06 1.03 11.22 •.-M6 64.34 0.00 0.00 19.89 130.39
9.2 Transport 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 38.38 2.05 24.08 0.00 2.08 0.00 0.94 1.89 1.08 70.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 71.39
9.3 Agriculture 1.55 0 0.15 0.00 0.44 0.00 13.98 0.29 0.62 0.00 0.23 0.35 1.14 18.75 8.00 0.00 0.00 9.71 36.46
9.4 Residential* Services (9.5+9.6) 25.02 0 12.16 0 00 0.59 0.00 1.64 11.45 1.82 0.00 4.89 0.65 14.39 72.61 57.40 0.00 0.00 13.12 143.13
9.5 Other 1.73 0.09 0.29 O.OO 1.79 14.86 0.97 O.03 0.09 0.00 0.00 3.49 009 23.43 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.4S r Statistical difference (rounding, errors) •0.0 •0.0 •0.0 0.0 •0.0 •0.0 -0.0 -0.0 •0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
C Source: LEI * Other oil products, ship fuel, petrol coke, light distillates Including lubricants from used oil
| 8! re" JO K) to
n Energy batancs, 1S90 Motor Jit Ugh) Hsavy Ra- Uqul- Other Total 8 InPJ Coal Coke Wood Crude 8a»o- kero- Dle«»l fuel fuel flnary fled oil Natural foitll Heat Nuclear Hydro Elec- Total z Detail* on M«ma 3,4,5: Conversion -fP«t oil llna s«n« oil oil oil gm gas prod.* gee full tricity 3 Transformation Input 2.46 1.47 393.00 0.00 O.OO 3.02 4.48 97.98 0.00 0.00 0.97 140.31 643.69 0.00 171.46 1.49 0.00 816 64 3.1 Hydro power stations 0.00 1.49 1.49 I I 3.2 IndusUiai waste heat (byproduct) 0.00 0.00 I 3.3 Nuclear power station 0.00 171.48 171.46 m 3.4 Condensing power plant 28.64 0.15 47.23 76.02 76.02 3.5 Industrial backpressure power plants 4.30 9.32 13.62 13.62 3.6 CHP - heat production 15.23 23.99 39.28 39.26 3.7 CHP - power production 9.26 7.85 17.11 17.11 I 3.8 Heat plants (HOB) 2.46 1.47 0.09 3.02 4.48 40.49 0.82 51.92 104.75 104.75 3. 3.9 Refinery 392.91 392.91 o 392.91 a n 4 Transformation output 0.00 0.00 0.00 87.46 28.13 89.92 17.79 133.87 11.51 11.84 12.39 0.00 392.91 143.18 0 00 0.00 102.36 638 45 o 4.1 Hydro power stations 0.00 1.43 1.49 SP 4.2 Waste heat (ind. byproduct) 0.00 7.56 7.56 n 4.3 Nuctear power station 0.00 1.00 61.39 6239 I o 4.4 Condensing power plant 0.00 1.16 28.15 29.31 4.4 Industrial backpressure power plants 0.00 11.25 0.53 11.78 4.S CHP - heat production 0.00 32.63 32.88 4.6 CHP • power production 0.00 10.80 10 B0 4.7 Heat plants (HOB) 0.00 63.33 69 33 4.8 Refinery 87.46 28.13 89.92 17.79 133.87 11.51 11.64 12.39 392.91 392.91 5 Consumption of the energy branch 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.00 8.09 11.02 0.56 1.96 0.00 21.72 7.28 0.00 0.00 9.99 38.99 5.1 Hydro power plants 0.00 0.01 O.0I 1 5.2 Pump-storage power station 0.00 0.00 5.3 Nuclear power station 0.00 4.60 4.60 S.4 Condensing power plant 0.00 1.22 1.22 5.5 Indusliloi backpressure power plants 0.00 0.00 5.6 CHP - heat production 0.00 1.08 1.08 5.7 CHP - power production 0.00 0.49 0.49 5.8 Heat plants (HOB) 0.00 0.78 0.78 c 5.9 Refinery 0.06 0.03 8.09 11.02 0.56 1.96 21.72 7.28 1.61 30.61
Sourer LEI * Other oil products, ship fuel, petrol coke, light distillates Including lubricants from used oil ra 7 O Table 2.2.3 Energy Balance, End-use Sector in Detail, 1990 1.3 9 8.1 3 4.1 8 7.8 6 5.7 5 5.4 2 2.3 3 6.1 4 6.6 8 16.7 3 18.9 7 16.7 5 12.2 7 14.0 7 12.2 1 16.9 2 12.5 7 71.3 9 85.0 1 66.6 5 58.1 2 51.4 4 20.8 2 41.D 9 22.6 2 51.3 7 38.4 6 20.9 9 23.4 6 122.2 6 404.8 3 Tota l 1.4 1 1.7 4 1.3 9 1.11 4
s 2.2 1 0.9 7 0.9 3 0.B 9 0.6 4 0.2 5 0.0 0 0.5 5 6.3 4 0.0 0 0.2 0 6.1 4 6.7 8 0.1 0 6.6 8 4.2 8 3.6 1 0.0 7 4.4 9 3.2 5 9.7 1 7.7 7 2 0 43.6 1 Elac - CO* Irlclt y Hydr o Nuclea r OO' O CO O 1.4 4 8.6 5 5.0 1 2.0 4 2.7 1 8.0 0 8.0 0 3.3 8 9.6 1 8.8 8 0.0 0 12.5 1 Haa t 13.4 9 10.1 1 10.0 9 26.0 8 61.6 3 31.3 2 31.3 2 26.0 8 129.7 7 1.6 7 3.0 2 8.4 8 0.6 4 2.5 0 2.7 4 4.4 9 4.7 8 2.3 3 5.5 2 3.0 5 0.1 2 2.6 2 fue l 12.2 7 12.0 2 t9.7 7 18.7 5 13.2 3 70.5 0 25.2 6 23.4 3 41.6 7 51.1 2 47.3 5 35.3 3 25.2 6 Tota l 28.2 5 foaal l 231.4 5 1.0 8 1.0 8 1.1 4 1.0 1 5.1 6 0.2 6 9.2 3 3.8 7 5.3 6 5.1 6 0.0 9 0.1 3 10.9 6 27.9 2 ga a Natura l 1.8 9 1.8 1 7.4 1 0.0 6 0.7 1 0.1 B 0.4 7 3.4 9 oi l 0.3 2 0.0 9 0.2 6 0.2 0 0.0 6 0.0 8 0.3 5 0.2 8 0.0 7 0.1 8 0.4 7 Olha r prod. * CO' O CZ' O CZ O 0.3 8 6.1 2 0.0 3 0.0 3 0.9 4 0.9 4 4.5 1 0.0 5 4.4 6 0.3 8 fla d ga a II Uqul -
* • S II 1.8 2 1.8 2 oi l 0.7 6 0.0 0 4.1 7 0.1 2 0.2 6 2.0 8 2.0 8 0.6 2 0.4 3 0.1 9 0.0 9 0.7 6 0.1 2 0.3 8 fua l 19.4 5 29.8 7 25.0 0 23.6 2 Heav y 0.2 1 7.B 2 3.6 3 oi l 0.7 7 0.0 4 0.3 8 0.2 1 0.0 0 0.2 9 0.2 9 7.8 2 3.6 3 0.0 3 0.0 9 0.0 9 0.0 5 fue l 12.7 5 Ligh t oi l 1.5 5 1.4 1 1.8 1 1.5 5 0.0 0 0.0 3 0.1 9 0.5 0 0.1 2 2.2 9 4.7 8 8.3 8 0.2 0 0.0 9 0.0 9 0.9 7 0.0 3 0.2 1 0.2 9 0.2 6 0.0 7 10.7 2 13.9 8 12.1 7 44.3 7 24.0 8 Oleaa l OO' O 2.0 5 2.0 5 0.0 0
• s I 14.8 6 16.9 1 1.7 9 0.0 6 0.2 1 0.4 7 0.4 4 0.5 9 0.5 9 0.6 9 0.0 6 0.0 6 0.4 4 0.0 6 0.5 0 0.0 0 Un a 42.5 6 38.3 8 38.3 8 Moto r gaao - oi l Crud e OO' O CO O 1.2 0 1.2 0 0.0 6 0.1 5 8.7 7 2.1 9 0.2 9 0.4 4 0.2 3 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.2 3 0.0 0 11 13.0 7 10.9 6 0.9 1 0.0 9 0.8 2 0.1 2 0.1 2 0.3 8 3 0.3 2 0.0 0 CZ' O 1.7 3 1.5 5 1.5 5 1.0 3 0.6 2 0.3 2 0.0 6 0.0 3 0.0 0 0.6 2 0.0 0 14.5 6 10.4 6 14.5 6 10.4 6 Coa l 29.5 6 -fcok a Fertilize r Heatin g Heatin g Cookin g Othe r Eloctri c Appiiancos/Llghtin g Heatin g Other s Cemen t Industrie s Other s lightin g Othe r (inct . mechanica l energy ) Othe r Eloctri c Appliances/Lightin g Ligh t Industi y Foo d industr y Othe r Railwa y Roa d Detail a o n Ita m 9 : Fina l conaumptlo Chemical s Machiner y Pape r & it s prod . Buildin g material s Ai r Wate r 9. 1 Industr y 9. 2 Constructio n 9. 3 Transpor t 9. 7 Olhe r 9. 4 Agricultur e 9. 5 Residentia l 9. 6 Servicos- f Trad e Enarg y balanca , 199 0 | 9 Fina l domesti c energ y consumptio n
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
10 to
Motor Jet Diesel Light Heavy Liqui- Other Total n Aggregate Categories Coal Coke Wood gaso- kero- + Diesel fuel fuel fied oil Natural fossil Heat Elec- Total + Peat line sene LFO oil on HS gas prod.* gas fuel tricity Base Year: 1990 8 9 Final domestic energy consumption 29.6 0.9 13,1 42.6 16,9 57,1 44,4 12.8 29.9 6,1 7,4 27.9 231.5 129.8 43,6 404,8 9.1 Industry 1.0 0,8 0.4 0,9 0,0 1,4 0.8 25.0 0,0 0,3 41,7 61.6 19,0 122,3 f 2,2 11,0 f 9.2 Construction 0,2 0.0 0,0 0,5 0,0 2,5 2,3 0,2 0.3 0,0 0,7 0,3 4,5 2.7 0,9 8,1 I 9.3 Transport 0,0 0.0 0.0 38,4 2.1 24,1 24,1 0,0 2.1 0,9 1,9 1,1 70,5 0,0 0,9 71,4 9.4 Agriculture 1.6 0,0 0.2 0.4 0,0 14,3 14,0 0,3 0.6 0,2 0,4 1,1 18,8 8,0 9.7 36,5 3? rn 9.5 Residential 14,6 0,0 11,0 0.0 0,0 7.9 0,1 7,8 0,0 4.5 0.2 9.2 47,4 31,3 6.3 85,0 9.6 Services-t-Trade 10,5 0,0 1,2 0,6 0,0 5,2 1.6 3,6 1.8 0,4 0.5 5,2 25,3 26,1 6.8 58,1 9.7 Others 1,7 0,1 0,3 1.8 14,9 1,0 1.0 0,0 0.1 0,0 3,5 0,1 23,4 0,0 0.0 23,5 Non—Energy Consumption 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,0 0,0 0,0 9,4 26,9 36,3 0,0 0.0 36,3 Exports 0,0 0.0 0,0 41,9 11,8 49.4 47,6 1.8 240,4 7.1 40,6 6,1 397,3 0,0 59,5 456,8 Imports 31,0 1.0 0.0 0,2 0,7 8.9 7,8 1,1 251,7 2.2 47.2 201.9 544.7 0.0 16,4 561,1 8 Exports (Net) -31.0 -1.0 0.0 41.7 11.1 40.5 39,8 0,7 -11,3 4,9 -6,5 -195,8 -147.5 0,0 43,2 -104,3 Year: 1991 9 Final domestic energy consumption 25,9 0.0 12.9 49,8 26,1 49,5 43,4 11.5 31,6 5,8 3,0 28.7 23B.6 133,4 42,6 414,6 8 9.1 Industry 1.4 0,0 0,4 1.0 0,0 0,0 1.3 0,7 26,4 0.0 0,3 11,5 43,0 60,1 17.5 120,5 9.2 Construction 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0,0 0.0 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 0,3 4.2 2.7 0,8 7,7 I 1 9.3 Transport 0.2 0,0 0,0 45.6 3.2 23,9 23.9 0.0 2.2 0.9 1.9 1.1 78,9 0,8 0,8 80,6 a. 9.4 Agriculture 1.0 0,0 0,2 0,5 0.0 13.7 13,5 0.3 0.6 0,2 17.4 7,3 9,0 33,8 0,1 1.1 Si 9.5 Residential 14,4 0,0 11,0 0.0 0,0 7.3 0,1 7.2 0.0 4,3 0,1 9,5 46.5 32.0 6,6 85,1 9.6 Services+Trado 8,2 0.0 1,1 0,3 0.0 4.6 1.5 3,1 1.9 0,3 0,2 5,3 21,8 30,5 7,9 60,2 9.7 Others 0,6 0.0 0,2 1,9 22,9 0,0 0,9 0,0 0,2 0.0 0,1 0,1 26.7 0.0 0,0 26,7 Non-Energy Consumption 0,7 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,0 (0.11 0,2 0,0 5,5 0,0 0,1 3,5 10,3 8,1 1.7 20,1 Exports 0,2 0.0 0,0 0,0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,0 0.0 0.4 0.5 5,8 2,0 8,3 a Imports 0,1 0.0 0,2 0,1 0,0 0.0 0,5 0.4 0.1 0,0 0.0 0,8 2,2 12.4 1.6 16,2 Exports (Net) 0,0 0,0 -0,2 -0.1 0.0 0,0 -0,5 -0,4 -0,1 -0,0 -0.0 -0,5 -1,7 -6,7 0.4 -7.9 Year: 1992 i 9 Final domestic energy consumption 23,9 0,0 12,9 28,0 3.1 28,1 21,6 6,5 12,6 3,8 5,1 27,0 144,4 91,6 33,2 269,1 9.1 Industry 1.3 0,0 0,5 0,8 0,0 1,3 0.7 0,6 10,5 0,0 0.4 10,9 25,7 37,3 12,6 75,5 9.2 Construction 0,2 0.0 0,0 0.4 0.0 1.2 1.0 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,6 0,3 2,9 1,5 0,5 4.9 9.3 Transport 0,2 0,0 0,0 25.0 2,2 11.8 11.8 0.0 0.9 0,7 3.4 1.0 45.1 0.8 0.5 46,4 9.4 Agriculture 0,9 0,0 0,2 0.4 0,0 6.4 6,2 0.2 0.4 0,2 0.2 0,9 9,6 3,7 6,3 19,6 9.5 Residential 13,3 0,0 11.1 0,0 0,0 3.3 0,1 3.3 0,0 2,5 0,2 9,6 39,9 24,1 6,5 70,5 9.6 Services-fTrade 7,8 0,0 1,1 0,4 0,0 2,8 0,6 2,2 0,4 0,2 0,2 4.4 17,4 24,3 6,8 48,4 9.7 Others 0,2 0.0 0.1 1,0 0,9 1.2 1,2 0,0 0.0 0.1 0,1 0,0 3,7 0.0 0,0 3,7 Non-Energy Consumption 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0.0 1,7 0,0 7.3 9,1 0.0 0,1 9,2 Exports 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0.0 0.0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,0 4,1 4,1 1 Imports 8,6 0,0 10,0 0,0 0.0 2.2 0.0 2,1 0,0 0.8 0,1 0.1 21.7 0.0 2.2 23.9 Exports (Net) -8,6 0,0 -10,0 0,0 0.0 -2.2 -0.0 -2,1 0,0 -0,8 -0,1 -0.1 -21.7 0,0 1.9 -19,8
* Exports and Imports not including Crude Oil and Nuclear Source: LEI Figure 2.2.1 Development of Final Energy Consumption by Energy Forms, 1990 to 1992
450- Electricity 400- Heat 350- Natural Gas 300- Oil 250- m
200- Wood+Peat
150- Solid Fuels
100
50
1990 1992
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSnTUTE
12 Figure 2.2.2 Development of Final Energy Consumption by End-use Sectors, 1990 to 1992
45CH
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - CO\V1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
13 Table 2.2.5 Large Industries, Energy Consumption 1990
Heavy Other Natural Total Heat Electri- Total Year: 1990 fuel oil oil prod. gas final fuel city Unit: PJ cons. Total consumption 25,0 0,4 11.0 36,3 61,6 19,7 117,6 Chemicals 0,8 0,0 2,3 3,0 13,5| 4,3 20,8 Production of fertilizers (Jonava) 0,0 0,0 2,3 2,3 8,5 3,1 16,1 Prod, of chemicals (Kedainiai) 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,8 1,6 0,5 3,0 Factory of artificial fibres (Kaunas) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,3 0,4 1,3 Rubber's goods (Kaunas) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,2 Plastic's goods (Vilnius) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 Biochemical factory (Kedainiai) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,6 0,1 0,8 Machinery 0,1 0,0 2,0 2,1 9,6 4,5 16,9 "Ekranas" (Panevezys) 0,0 0,0 1,2 1,4 0,6 0,8 2,8 "Sigma" (Vilnius) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 0,2 0,9 "Elfa" (Vilnius) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,1 0,4 "Aurida" (Panevezys) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,5 0,3 0,9 Fuel equipment fact. (Vilnius) 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,7 Mechanics factory (Klaipeda) 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,1 0,8 Cast iron foundry (Kaunas) 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,3 0,5 "Vienybe" (Ukmerge) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,3 "Venta" (Vilnius) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,2 Electric welder mashines (Vilnius) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,3 "Lietkabelis" (Panevezys) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,2 Compressor factory "Mazeikiai" 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,1 0,5 Ships repair factory (Klaipeda) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,1 0,4 Shipyard (Klaipeda) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,3 "Nuklonas" (Siauliai) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,2 0,4 Paper and its products 0,4 0,0 0,5 1,7 8,9 2,0 12,6 Paper and cellulose (Grigiskes) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,7 0,4 2,1 Cardboard factory (Klaipeda) 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 1,7 0,5 2,3 Paper factory (Kaunas) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 0,2 0,7 Furniture factory (Kazlu Ruda) 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,4 0,1 0,9 Furniture factory (Jonava) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,2 Furniture factory (Kaunas) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 . 0,0 0,3 Furniture factory (Situte) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,3 Building materials industry 23,6 0,3 3,0 26,9 10,1 3,3 41,6 Cement factory 19,4 0,0 0,0 19,4 1,4 1,4 22,3 Building mat. (Akmene) 0,3 0,0 0,5 0,8 0,1 0,1 1,0 Building mat. (Venta) 1,6 0,0 0,0 1,6 0,5 0,2 2,3 Building mat. (Ignalina) 1,2 0,0 0,0 1,2 0,6 0,1 1,9 Ceramics factory (Palemonas) 0,2 0,0 1,5 1,8 0,1 0,1 2,0 Ceramics factory (Sargenai) 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,2 0,0 0,6 "Silikatas" (Vilnius) 0,2 0,0 0,4 0,6 0,5 0,1 1,2 Glass factory (Panevezys) 0,0 0,0 1,2 1,2 0,1 0,1 1,4 i Light industry 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,6 5,0 2,2 7,9 Cotton factory (Alytus) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,2 0,5 1,7 "Unas" (Panevezys) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,1 0,1 0,6 "Silkas" (Kaunas) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,2 0,6 "Drobe" (Kaunas) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,2 0,4 Spinning factory (Marijampole) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,3 Knitted-goods factory (Utena) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,3 "Sparta" (Vilnius) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,3 Artificial leather (Plunge) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,7 0,0 0,1 0,8 Food industry 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,2 12,5 1,7 16,4 Sugar factory (Marijampole) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,5 0,0 0,6 Sugar factory (Panevezys) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,7 0,0 0,8 Sugar factory (Pavenciai) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,7 0,1 0,8 Sugar factory (Kedainiai) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,5 0,0 0,6 Milk enterprise (Vilnius) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,1 0,6 Milk enterprise (Kaunas) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,0 0,5 Milk cannery (Marijampole) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,7 0,1 0,9 Milk enterprise (Panevezys) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,0 0,5 Meat enterprise (Klaipeda) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,4
Source: Lithuanian Department of Statistics;
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
14 3. BASIC PARAMETERS AND ASSUMPTIONS
This chapter contains the data and assumptions which lay the foundation for the scenario development of the energy sector. These comprise in particular:
• Macro-economic scenarios chosen for the Energy Strategy • Demographic development and urban-rural split • Cost base of the project cost estimates • Fuel prices • international fuel prices • domestic fuel prices
• Heat values of the energy forms considered • Emission coefficients
Some of these data can be considered as exogenous in the sense that their development is outside the control of the decision makers in Lithuania. Among these, in particular the development of international prices of various energy forms, for which Lithuania, being a rather small country lacking an appropriate resource base, has to accept the role of a price- taker.
Other parameters such as domestic energy prices, can in principle be set freely by Lithuanian authorities but only to the extent that the price setting is consistent with the overall objectives of energy policy to enhance the rational use of energy. Thus prices should be set according to economic costs which, again, are influenced by international price developments.
A wider degree of freedom is attributed to the parameter assumptions on which Lithuanian authorities enjoy a far reaching discretion. A notable example for these parameters is the field covering institutional and regulatory issues.
Moreover, although the assumptions and data presented in this chapter form the essential building blocks of the energy sector scenario development, it goes without saying that there are important interrelationships and repercussions between the energy sector development and the overall macroeconomic development. These are dealt with in our study implicitly in terms of consistency checks and exclusion conditions. However, no formal modelling framework has been developed to account for these circular impacts.
3.1 MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS CONSIDERED WITHIN THE ENERGY STRATEGY
The scenarios of ME and the World Bank described before have been discussed with both, experts from the ME and the LEI. Furthermore they have been checked for consistency as to growth assumptions and sectoral structures as far as the available information permitted to do so.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
15 As a result, three macroeconomic scenarios will be considered:
FR Fast Reforms-Scenario: as explained, except for corrections to preserve the consistency of the sectoral break-down of the economic development, this scenario is identical to ME-1. It foresees a rapid restructuring of the economy, an accelerated pace of political, legal and institutional reforms as a precondition for large capital investments accompanied by more energy-efficient equipment.
SR Slow Reforms-Scenario: this scenario combines the assumptions from WB-3 for the short to medium term and ME-2 for the longer-term future. The underlying economic structure was taken from ME-2. It is based on a longer lasting economic crisis where the recovery from the economic slump which occurred in 1991 and 1992 will be slow if not negligible. Structural changes would be slow due to lack of capital injections and the postponement of essential political and institutional reforms including price reforms.
MR Moderate Reforms-Scenario: this scenario is based on a logistic estimate which smooths the average development given by the other scenarios described above. The implied economic structure is derived from the two "extremes" given by the ME-1 and ME-2 scenarios by using a logistic estimate of the economic restructuring needed when deviating from the other two scenarios.
The illustration of the three scenarios is organized as follows:
• Figure 3.1.1 compares the trajectory of the three scenarios in terms of the development of the indices of the GDP, where the index in the base year 1990 is set to 100.
• Tables 3.1.1 to 3.1.3 display the sectoral growth rates and the composition of GDP 1990, 1991,1992 and for five year intervals from 1995 until the year 2015 implied by the moderate reforms-scenario, fast reforms-scenario, and slow reforms-scenario respectively.
• Similarly, Tables 3.1.4 to 3.1.6 display the sub-sectoral growth rates and the composition of industrial output for 1990,1991,1992 and for five year intervals from 1995 until the year 2015 implied by the moderate reforms-scenario, fast reforms-scenario, and slow reforms- scenario respectively.
Indices rather than absolute values were taken to describe the development because it turned out to be difficult to circumvent the problem of the determination of the GDP in constant Roubles. Constant prices in the terminology used under the statistical system of the FSU corresponded to prices centrally established for accounting and planning purposes and are not comparable to "constant prices" as conventionally understood in the Western statistical system. Therefore, estimates on the absolute level of GDP (or NMP) in 1990, show widespread divergences.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
16 Figure 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Scenarios Used in the Strategy Study
200
Legend: MR Moderate Reforms FR Fast Reforms SR Slow Reforms V J
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year
IC CONSULT- ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
17 Table 3.1.1 Sectoral Growth Rales and Compositfon of GDP - Moderate Reforms-Scenario
Sectoral Growth Assumptions Indices (1990 = 100)
Scenario 1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP MR 100.0 86.9 58.4 64.8 91.0 118.2 142.9 162.4 Agriculture MR 100.0 94.2 63.9 60.2 67.2 65.8 68.6 67.9 Industry MR 100.0 97.3 55.1 67.5 92.9 106.4 123.3 141.2 Construction MR 100.0 78.5 60.6 66.5 100.6 129.0 140.8 138.2 Transport MR 100.0 57.4 51.5 60.9 91.0 139.2 175.5 192.7 Trade MR 100.0 70.9 48.9 65.7 119.8 185.7 256.6 336.5 Service MR 100.0 77.1 59.3 66.8 109.1 181.8 241.2 290.5
Subsectorat Growth Indices (1990 = 100)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry MR 100 97.3 55.1 67.5 92.9 106.4 123.3 141.2
Electricity, fuel MR 100 106.4 43.1 60.6 77.8 88.2 99.5 111.2 Chemical MR 100 98.0 49.2 65.2 87.5 95.1 106.6 119.2 Machinery MR 100 97.1 51.3 61.4 88.7 102.2 119.9 . 140.5 Wood & Paper MR 100 97.1 46.9 53.1 70.8 87.5 102.7 114.1 Building Materials MR 100 93.9 45.3 65.2 87.3 103.1 120.7 133.8 Light MR 100 105.2 70.3 83.9 113.1 128.0 146.8 167.1 Food MR 100 89.0 55.3 68.1 88.9 100.8 115.9 131.6 Other (incl. Electroni MR 100 95.0 48.2 55.0 102.5 123.2 148.8 179.0
Sectoral Breakdown Shares in % of GDP (in constant 1990 prices)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP MR 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Agriculture MR 27.5 29.8 30.1 25.6 20.3 15.3 13.2 11.5 Industry MR 31.7 35.5 29.9 33.1 32.4 28.6 27.4 27.6 Construction MR 10.4 9.4 10.8 10.7 11.5 11.4 10.3 8.9 Transport MR 5.9 3.9 5.2 5.5 5.9 7.0 7.3 7.0 Trade MR 4.9 4.0 4.1 5.0 6.5 7.7 8.8 10.2 Services MR 19.6 17.4 19.9 20.2 23.5 30.2 33.1 35.1
Subsectoral Breakdown Shares in % of industrial production (in constant 1990 prices)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry MR 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Electricity, fuel MR 7.8% 8.5% 6.1% 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% Chemical MR 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3,1% 3.0% Machinery MR 26.6% 26.5% 24.8% 24.2% 25.4% 25.6% 25.9% 26.5% Wood & Paper MR 5.2% 5.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% Building Materials MR 4.9% 4.7% 4.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6% Light Industry MR 21.9% 23.7% 27.9% 27.2% 26.7% 26.3% 26.1% 25.9% Food MR • 25.2% 23.0% 25.3% 25.4% 24.1% 23.9% 23.7% 23.5% Other MR 4.8% 4.7% 4.2% 3.9% 5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1%
IC CONSULT- ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
18 Table 3.1.2 Sectoral Growth Rates and Composition of GDP - Fast Reforms-Scenario
Sectoral Growth Assumptions Indices
Scenario 1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP : : FR 100 86.9 58.4 63.7 ^97.0 140.0 170^0 : 200.6 Agriculture FR 100 94.1 64.0 56.3 68.7 69.2 70.0 73.0 Manufacturing FR 100 97.2 55.1 68.1 97.3 115.0 131.0 158.0 Construction FR 100 79.0 60.8 68.6 120.7 182.4 198.5 185.0 Transport FR 100 57.9 51.6 59.1 97.8 167.5 200.5 239.0 Trade FR 100 70.6 48.6 68.9 143.8 238.9 314.2 374.0 Service FR 100 77.1 59.2 64.5 111.7 224.7 313.6 398.0 Trade and Services 100.0 75.9 57.2 65.3 118.4 228.0 314.3 395.1
Subsectoral Growth Indices
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry FR 100.0 97.2 55.1 68.1 97.3 115.0 131.0 158.0
Electricity, fuel FR 100.0 106.1 42.4 69.0 81.1 93.0 103.0 122.0 Chemical FR 100.0 97.7 48.4 72.0 91.2 99.0 109.0 130.0 Machinery FR 100.0 96.8 50.5 61.0 92.4 110.0 127.0 158.0 Wood & Paper FR 100.0 96.8 46.1 53.0 73.6 97.0 112.0 131.0 Building Materials FR 100.0 93.6 44.6 74.0 91.0 114.0 131.0 153.0 Light FR 100.0 104.9 69.1 81.0 118.0 138.0 156.0 188.0 Food FR 100.0 88.7 54.4 68.0 92.7 109.0 123.0 148.0 Other (incl. Electroni FR 100.0 94.7 47.4 55.0 106.7 133.0 156.0 201.0
Sectoral Breakdown Shares in % of GDP (in constant 1990 prices)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP FR 100.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture FR 27.5 29.8 30.1 24.3 19.5 13.6 11.3 10.0 Manufacturing FR 31.7 35.5 29.9 33.9 31.8 26.0 24.4 25.1 Construction FR 10.4 9.4 10.8 11.2 12.9 13.5 12.0 9.7 Transport FR 5.9 3.9 5.2 5.5 5.9 7.0 6.9 7.0 Trade FR 4.9 4.0 4.1 5.3 7.3 8.4 9.1 9.3 Services FR 19.6 17.4 19.9 19.8 22.6 31.5 36.2 39.1
Subsectoral Breakdown Shares in % of industrial production (in constant 1990 prices)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry FR 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Electricity, fuel FR 7.8% 8.5% 6.1% 7.9% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% 6.0% Chemical FR 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% Machinery FR 26.6% 26.5% 24.8% 23.8% 25.4% 25.5% 25.8% 26.5% Wood & Paper FR 5.2% 5.2% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.3% Building Materials FR 4.9% 4.7% 4.0% 5.3% 4.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% Light Industry FR 21.9% 23.7% 27.9% 26.0% 26.7% 26.3% 26.1% 26.0% Food FR 25.2% 23.0% 25.3% 25.2% 24.1% 23.9% 23.7% 23.5% Other FR 4.8% 4.7% 4.2% 3.9% 5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1%
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
19 Table 3.1.3 Sectoral Growth Rates and Composition of GDP - Slow Reforms-Scenario
Sectoral Growth Assumptions Indices (1990 = 100)
Scenario 1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP . SR 100.0 86.9 58.4 65.8 .. • 80.0 94.7 112.0 .131.2 Agriculture SR 100.0 94.1 64.0 64.2 60.5 58.5 61.5 61.0 Manufacturing SR 100.0 97.2 55.1 66.9 85.5 92.9 107.2 127.7 Construction SR 100.0 79.0 60.8 64.2 76.8 84.1 91.8 100.0 Transport SR 100.0 57.9 51.6 62.4 79.5 111.7 145.5 156.0 Trade SR 100.0 70.6 48.6 62.4 89.7 134.6 193.4 290.0 Service SR 1G0.O 77.1 59.2 69.2 98.1 139.0 171.2 205.0
Subsectoral Growth Indices (1990 = 100)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry SR 100.0 97.2 55.1 66.9 85.4 92.9 107.4 127.7
Electricity, fuel SR 100.0 106.1 42.4 52.2 71.3 78.6 88.9 103.0 Chemical SR 100.0 97.7 48.4 58.5 80.1 85.8 96.3 111.0 Machinery SR 100.0 96.8 50.5 6I.7 81.2 89.3 104.6 127.0 Wood & Paper SR 100.0 96.8 46.1 53.2 65.0 74.2 87.0 101.0 Building Materials SR 100.0 93.6 44.6 56.4 79.9 87.6 102.7 119.0 Light Industry SR 100.0 104.9 69.1 86.7 103.6 111.7 127.7 151.0 Food & Beverages SR 100.0 88.7 54.4 68.2 81.5 87.6 100.9 119.0 Other (incl. Electron! SR 100.0 94.7 47.4 55.0 93.9 107.2 129.6 162.0
Sectoral Breakdown Shares in % of GDP (in constant 1990 prices)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP : SR 100.0 . 100.0 100.0 100 100 100 100 .100 Agriculture SR 27.5 29.8 30.1 26.8 21.1 17.0 15.1 13.0 Manufacturing SR 31.7 35.5 29.9 32.2 32.9 31.1 30.3 30.0 Construction SR 10.4 9.4 10.8 10.1 10.1 9.2 8.5 8.0 Transport SR 5.9 3.9 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.9 7.6 7.0 Trade SR 4.9 4.0 4.1 4.6 5.6 7.0 8.5 11.0 Services SR 19.6 17.4 19.9 20.6 24.4 28.8 30.0 31.0
Subsectoral Breakdown Shares in % of industrial production (in constant 1990 prices)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry SR 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Electricity, fuel SR 7.8% 8.5% 6.1% 6.1% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.3% Chemical SR 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% Machinery SR 26.6% 26.5% 24.8% 24.5% 25.4% 25.6% 25.9% 26.4% Wood & Paper SR 5.2% 5.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% Building Materials SR 4.9% 4.7% 4.0% 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% Light Industry SR 21.9% 23.7% 27.9% 28.4% 26.7% 26.4% 26.0% 25.9% Food SR 25.2% 23.0% 25.3% 25.7% 24.1% 23.8% 23.7% 23.5% Other SR 4.8% 4.7% 4.2% 3.9% 5.3% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1%
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - C0W1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
20 Table 3.1.4 Sub-sectoral Growth Rates and the Composition of Industrial Output - Moderate Reforms- Scenario
Subsectoral Growth Indices (1990 = 100)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry MR 100.0 97.2 55.1 67.5 92.9 106.4 123.3 141.2
Electricity, fuel MR 100.0 106.1 42.4 60.6 77.8 88.2 99.5 111.2 Chemical MR 100.0 97.7 48.4 65.2 87.5 95.1 106.6 119.2 Jonava Azotas Fert. MR 100.0 62.4 55.3 67.2 90.1 98.0 109.9 122.8 Kedainiai Fert. MR 100.0 61.0 61.2 73.6 98.7 107.3 120.3 134.5 Other Chem. MR 100.0 123.6 41.8 62.0 83.2 90.4 101.4 113.3 Machinery MR 100,0 96.8 50.5 61.4 88.7 102.2 119.9 140.5 Wood & Paper MR 100,0 96.8 46.1 53.1 70.8 87.5 102.7 114.1 Building Materials MR 100.0 93.6 44.6 65.2 87.3 103.1 120.7 133.8 Cement MR 100,0 93.7 42.9 62.6 83.9 99.1 116.0 128.6 Other B. Mat. MR 100.0 93.6 45.1 65.8 88.2 104.1 122.0 135.2 Light MR 100,0 104.9 69.1 83.9 113.1 128.0 146.8 167.1 Food MR 100.0 88.7 54.4 68.1 88.9 100.8 115.9 131.6 Other (incl. Electroni MR 100.0 94.7 47.4 55.0 102.5 123.2 148.8 179.0
Subsectoral Breakdown Shares in % of industrial production (in constant 1990 prices)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry MR 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Electricity, fuel MR 7.8% 8.5% 6.1% 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% Chemical MR 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% Jonava Azotas Fert. MR 0.9% 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% Kedainiai Fert. MR 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% Other Chem. MR 2.1% 2.7% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% Machinery MR 26.6% 26.5% 24.8% 24.2% 25.4% 25.6% 25.9% 26.5% Wood & Paper MR 5.2% 5.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% Building Materials MR 4.9% 4.7% 4.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6% Cement MR 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% Other B. Mat. MR 3.9% 3.7% 3.2% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% Light Industry MR 21.9% 23.7% 27.9% 27.2% 26.7% 26.3% 26.1% 25.9% Food MR 25.2% 23.0% 25.3% 25.4% 24.1% 23.9% 23.7% 23.5% Other MR 4.8% 4.7% 4.2% 3.9% 5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1%
IC CONSULT- ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
21 Table 3.1.5 Sub-sectoral Growth Rates and the Composition of Industrial Output - Fast Reforms-Scenario
Subsectoral Growth Indices (1990 = 100)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry FR 100.0 97.2 55.1 68.1 97.3 115.0 131.0 158.0
Electricity, fuel FR 100.0 106.1 42.4 69.0 81.1 93.0 103.0 122.0 Chemical FR 100,0 97.7 48.4 72.0 91.2 99.0 109.0 130.0 Jonava Azotas Fert. FR 100.0 62.4 55.3 74.2 94.0 102.0 112.3 134.0 Kedainiai Fert. FR 100.0 61.0 61.2 80.6 102.1 110.8 122.0 145.5 Other Chem. FR 100.0 123.6 41.8 68.6 87.0 94.4 103.9 123.9 Machinery FR 100.0 96.8 50.5 61.0 92.4 110.0 127.0 158.0 Wood & Paper FR 100.0 96.8 46.1 53.0 73.6 97.0 112.0 131.0 Building Materials FR 100.0 93.6 44.6 74.0 91.0 114.0 131.0 153.0 Cement FR 100.0 93.7 42.9 71.1 87.5 109.6 125.9 147.1 Other B. Mat. FR 100.0 93.6 45.1 74.8 91.9 115.2 132.3 154.6 Light FR 100.0 104.9 69.1 81.0 118.0 138.0 156.0 188.0 Food FR 100.0 88.7 54.4 68.0 92.7 109.0 123.0 148.0 Other (incl. Electroni FR 100.0 94.7 47.4 55.0 106.7 133.0 158.0 201.0
Subsectoral Breakdown Shares in % of industrial production (in constant 1990 prices)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry FR 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Electricity, fuel FR 7.8% 8.5% 6.1% 7.9% 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% 6.0% Chemical FR 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% Jonava Azotas Fert. FR 0.9% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Kedainiai Fert. FR 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% Other Chem. FR 2.1% 2.7% 1.6% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% Machinery FR 26.6% 26.5% 24.8% 23.8% 25.4% 25.5% 25.8% 26.5% Wood & Paper FR 5.2% 5.2% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.3% Building Materials FR 4.9% 4.7% 4.0% 5.3% 4.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% Cement FR 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Other B. Mat. FR 3.9% 3.7% 3.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% Light Industry FR 21.9% 23.7% 27.9% 26.0% 26.7% 26.3% 26.1% 26.0% Food' FR 25.2% 23.0% 25.3% 25.2% 24.1% 23.9% 23.7% 23.5% Other FR 4.8% 4.7% 4.2% 3.9% 5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1%
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
22 Table 3.1.6 Sub-sectoral Growth Rates and the Composition of Industrial Output - Slow Reforms-Scenario
Subsectoral Growth Indices (1990 = 100)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry SR 100 97,2 55.1 66.9 85.4 92.9 107.4 127.7
Electricity, fuel SR 100 106.1 42.4 52.2 71.3 78.6 88.9 103.0 Chemical SR 100 97.7 48.4 58.5 80.1 85.8 96.3 111.0 Jonava Azotes Fert. SR 100 62.4 55.3 60.3 82.5 88.4 99.2 114.4 Kedainiai Fert. SR 100 61.0 61.2 66.6 91.2 97.7 109.7 126.4 Other Chem. SR 100 123.6 41.8 55.4 75.9 81.3 91.2 105.2 Machinery SR 100 96.8 50.5 61.7 81.2 89.3 104.6 127.0 Wood & Paper SR 100 96.8 46.1 53.2 65.0 74.2 87.0 101.0 Building Materials SR 100 93.6 44.6 56.4 79.9 87.6 102.7 119.0 Cement SR 100 93.7 42.9 54.2 76.8 84.2 98.8 114.4 Other B. Mat. SR 100 93.6 45.1 57.0 80.7 88.5 103.8 120.2 Light Industry SR 100 104.9 69.1 86.7 103.6 111.7 127.7 151.0 Food & Beverages SR 100 88.7 54.4 68.2 81.5 87.6 100.9 119.0 Other (incl. Electroni SR 100 94.7 47.4 55.0 93.9 107.2 129.6 162.0
Subsectoral Breakdown Shares in % of industrial production (in constant 1990 prices)
1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Industry SR 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Electricity, fuel SR 7.8% 8.5% 6.1% 6.1% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.3% Chemical SR 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% Jonava Azotas Fert. SR 0.9% 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% Kedainiai Fert. SR 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% Other Chem. SR 2.1% 2.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% Machinery SR 26.6% 26.5% 24.8% 24.5% 25.4% 25.6% 25.9% 26.4% Wood & Paper SR 5.2% 5.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% Building Materials SR 4.9% 4.7% 4.0% 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% Cement SR 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Other B. Mat. SR 3.9% 3.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% Light Industry SR 21.9% 23.7% 27.9% 28.4% 26.7% 26.4% 26.0% 25.9% Food SR 25.2% 23.0% 25.3% 25.7% 24.1% 23.8% 23.7% 23.5% Other SR 4.8% 4.7% 4.2% 3.9% 5.3% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1%
IC CONSULT- ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTF
23 The economic sectors considered are those for which information on energy consumption was available. Also, the break-down of the industrial sector into subsectors followed the practice used when establishing energy balances in Lithuania. However, because the categorisation of industrial activities does not hitherto follow Western practice according to ISIC or similar classification codes, the sectoral classification and the inferred specific energy consumption is not readily comparable to Western statistics.
3.2 DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT AND URBAN-RURAL SPLIT
The demographic developments are summarized in the following three tables.
Table 3.2.1 shows the population growth by rural and urban areas for the years 1970 - 2010. Data until 1990 are taken from DoS, projections are based on own calculations with the following assumptions:
• average annual population growth: 0.4% • urban/rural split according to a logistic trend curve based on past development and setting the maximum urban share to 80% .
The geographic break-down of the population for the districts and cities is given in Tables 3.2.2. and 3.2.3 for the years 1979 and 1989.
Table 3.2.4 shows some characteristic data on housing and living conditions which have been used to project the future energy demand.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
24 Table 3.2.1 Population Development and Urban/Rural Split 1970 to 2010
Year Total Urban Rural • •
1970 3,147.2 1,600.0 1,547.2 1971 3.220.2 2.3% 1,658.9 3.7% 1,561.3 0.9% 1972 3,220.2 0.0% 1,718.4 3.6% 1,501.8 -3.8% 1973 3,251.0 1.0% 1,774.4 3.3% 1,476.6 -1.7% 1974 3,280.4 0.9% 1,828.2 3.0% 1,452.2 -1.7% 1975 3,308.2 0.8% 1,883.4 3.0% 1,424.8 -1.9% 1976 3,335.2 0.8% 1,936.1 2.8% 1,399.1 -1.8% 1977 3,361.5 0.8% 1,984.7 2.5% 1,376.8 -1.6% 1978 3,385.9 0.7% 2,033.8 2.5% 1,352.1 -1.8% 1979 3,404.7 0.6% 2,080.1 2.3% 1.324.6 -2.0% 1980 3,421.0 0.5% 2,124.0 2.1% 1,297.0 -2.1% 1981 3,441.6 0.6% 2,170.1 2.2% 1,271.5 -2.0% 1982 3,466.7 0.7% 2,241.9 3.3% 1,224.8 -3.7% 1983 3,495.5 0.8% 2,258.7 0.7% 1,236.8 1.0% 1984 3,525.4 0.9% 2,301.9 1.9% 1,223.5 -1.1% 1985 3,556.6 0.9% 2,344.1 1.8% 1,212.5 •0.9% 1986 3,591.8 1.0% 2,389.7 ^.9% 1,202.1 -0.9% 1987 3,630.1 1.1% 2,438.5 2.0% 1,191.6 -0.9% 1988 3,669.2 1.1% 2,485.8 1.9% 1,183.4 -0.7% 1989 3.706.4 1.0% 2,529.2 1.7% 1,177.2 -0.5% 1990 3,737.3 0.8% 2,564.6 1.4% 1,172.7 -0.4% 1991 3,756.5 0.5% 2,584.6 0.8% 1,171.9 -0.1% 1992 3,756.4 •0.0% 2,580.1 -0.2% 1,176.3 0.4% 1993 3,773.0 0.4% 2,645.2 2.5% 1,127.8 -4.1% 1994 3,776.0 0.1% 2,664.5 0.7% 1,111.5 -1.4% 1995 3,780.0 0.1% 2,683.8 0.7% 1,096.2 -1.4% 1996 3,795.1 0.4% 2,710.3 1.0% 1,084.8 -1.0% 1997 3,810.3 0.4% 2,736.3 1.0% 1,074.0 -1.0% 1998 3,825.5 0.4% 2,761.8 0.9% 1,063.7 -1.0% 1999 3,840.8 0.4% 2,786.9 0.9% 1,054.0 •0.9% 2000 3,856.2 0.4% 2,811.4 0.9% 1,044.8 -0.9% 2001 3,871.6 0.4% 2,835.5 0.9% 1,036.1 -0.8% 2002 3,887.1 0.4% 2,859.2 0.8% 1,027.9 -0.8% 2003 3,902.7 0.4% 2,882.5 0.8% 1,020.2 -0.8% 2004 3,918.3 0.4% 2,905.3 0.8% 1,012.9 -0.7% 2005 3,934.0 0.4% 2,927.8 0.8% 1,006.1 -0.7% 2006 3,949.7 0.4% 2,950.0 0.8% 999.7 -0.6% 2007 3,965.5 0.4% 2,971.8 0.7% 993.7 -0.6% 2008 3,981.3 0.4% 2,993.2 0.7% 988.1 -0.6% 2009 3,997.3 0.4% 3,014.3 0.7% 982.9 -0.5% 2010 4,013.3 0.4% 3,035.2 0.7% 978.1 -0.5%
Shares
1970 100.0% 50.8% 49.2% 1980 100.0% 62.1% 37.9% 1990 100.0% 68.6% 31.4% •2000 100.0% 72.9% 27.1% •2010 100.0% 75.6% 24.4%
Compound Growth Rates p.a
1970-80 0.8% 2.9% -1.7% 1980-90 0.9% 1.9% -1.0% 1990-2000 0.3% 0.9% -1.1% 2000-2010 0.4% 0.8% -0.7%
Growth 1990-2010 p.a: 0.4% Logistic approximation of urbanisation: x[max] 0.8 x (t) = x[max] * exp (-b*r[t-toj) b[est] 0.2535 set t = to r[est] 0.9510 esL1990 68.62%
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
25 Table 3.2.2 Population by Administrative Districts, Lithuania, 1979 and 1989
Rajonai No. Distance Area Population Growth Density (districts) to Vilnius 1979 1989 rate Inhab. km sqkm Inhab. Inhab. 79-89 per sqkm Akmene 1 306 1,054 40,344 37,595 -0.7% 36 Alytus 2 110 1,411 39,393 33,259 -1.7% 24 Anyksciai 3 118 1,771 43,101 38,515 -1.1% 22 Birzai 4 215 1,493 40,666 38,515 -0.5% 26 Ignalina 5 124 1,505 37,572 59,757 4.7% 40 Jonava 6 114 944 47,250 54,425 1.4% 58 Joniskis 7 269 1,153 32,133 33,300 0.4% 29 Jurbarkas 8 189 1,507 40,511 40,351 -0.0% 27 Kaisiadorys 9 71 1,169 41,813 40,216 -0.4% 34 Kaunas 10 102 1,521 77,633 84,281 0.8% 55 Kedainiai 11 152 1,677 67,963 69,461 0.2% 41 Kelme 12 233 1,697 46,609 43,336 -0.7% 26 Klaipeda 13 318 1,370 45,064 45,403 0.1% 33 Kretinga 14 323 991 42,658 44,152 0.3% 45 Kupiskis 15 166 1,077 26,099 25,676 -0.2% 24 Lazdijai 16 155 1,542 38,702 33,418 -1.5% 22 Marijampole 17 139 1,554 52,855 49,409 -0.7% 32 Mazeikiai 18 313 1,009 47,919 60,899 2.4% 60 Moletai 19 71 1,368 31,208 27,324 -1.3% 20 Pakruojis 20 196 1,316 32,729 30,667 -0.6% 23 Panevezys 21 145 2,202 43,941 41,941 •0.5% 19 Pasvalys 22 184 1,289 39,282 36,867 -0.6% 29 Plunge 23 288 1,692 54,030 54,103 0.0% 32 Prienai 24 98 1,142 40,332 39,409 -0.2% 35 Radviliskis 25 208 1,636 55,367 54,938 -0.1% 34 Raseiniai 26 178 1,573 48,970 46,037 -0.6% 29 Rokiskis 27 169 1,806 47,727 47,190 -0.1% 26 Skuodas 28 341 911 28,187 26,587 -0.6% 29 Sakiai 29 164 1,613 44,049 41,840 -0.5% 26 Salcininkai 30 45 1,507 43,195 41,347 -0.4% 27 Siauliai 31 230 1,819 51,609 50,242 -0.3% 28 Silale 32 260 1,188 33,486 31,640 -0.6% 27 Silute 33 289 2,243 68,291 68,185 -0.0% 30 Sirvintos 34 49 906 22,804 21,713 -0.5% 24 Svencionys 35 86 1,692 38,157 38,004 -0.0% 22 Taurage 36 243 1,179 51,086 52,699 0.3% 45 Telsiai 37 301 1,431 56,159 59,406 0.6% 42 Trakai 38 30 1,661 72,829 81,232 1.1% 49 Ukmerge 39 78 1,395 53,213 52,520 -0.1% 38 Utena 40 105 1,229 46,228 52,546 1.3% 43 Varena 41 83 2,417 40,352 37,908 -0.6% 16 Vilkaviskis 42 162 1,286 53,719 52,262 -0.3% 41 Vilnius 43 0 2,206 92,472 94,131 0.2% 43 Zarasai 44 158 1,334 28,265 25,970 -0.8% 19 Total rajonai 64,486 2,025,972 2,038,676 0.1% 32
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWl CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
26 Table 3.2.3 Population of Cities, Lithuania, 1979 and 1989
Cities No. Distance Area Population Growth Density to Vilnius 1979 1989 rate Inhab. km sqkm Inhab. Inhab. 79-89 per sqkm Vilnius 45 0 287 475,825 576,747 1.9% 2,008 Kaunas 46 102 116 368,649 418,087 1.3% 3,604 Klaipeda 47 318 67 176,648 202,929 1.4% 3,029 Siauliu 48 230 69 118,724 145,629 2.1% 2,111 Panevezys 49 145 26 102,303 126,483 2.1% 4,865 Alytus 50 110 36 55,509 73,015 2.8% 2,028 Marijampole 51 139 20 38,824 50,887 2.7% 2,544 Druskininkai 52 150 22 12,464 18,943 4.3% 861 Palanga 53 342 7 11,980 17,571 3.9% 2,510 Neringa 54 369 9 2,242 2,478 1.0% 275 Birstonas 55 90 13 2,350 3,537 4.2% 272 Total cities 672 1,365,518 1,636,306 1.8% 2,434
Total Area Population Growth Density Lithuania 1979 1989 rate Inhab. sqkm Inhab. Inhab. 79-89 per sqkm Lithuania (Rajonai+Cities) 65,158 3,391,490 3,674,982 0.8% 56 Lithuania (officiaJ numbers) 65,200 3,674,802 Statistical difference -42 180
1991 79-91 1991 Lithuania 1991 65,158 3,752,000 0.8% 58
Source: Department of Statistics
IC CONSULT- ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
27 Table 3.2.4 Development of Population/Living Conditions, Lithuania, 1990 to 2015
RESIDENTIAL 1990 1991 1992 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015
Population (1000) 3723 3752 3761 3780 3840 3930 4030 4130 Growth p.a. 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Multi dwellings houses 2127 2146 2148 2153 2176 2243 2325 2395 Growth p.a. 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% Single dwelling houses 1596 1606 1613 1627 1664 1687 1705 1735 Growth p.a. 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Dwellings (1000) * 1253 1267 1276 1309 1394 1490 1581 1678 Growth p.a. 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% TOTAL URBAN 808 820 828 858 926 995 1066 1144 Growth p.a. 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% TOTAL RURAL (Single) 445 447 448 451 468 495 515 534 Growth p.a. 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% Multi Urban 581 586 590 613 650 675 692 708 Growth p.a. 0.9% 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% Single Urban 227 234 238 245 276 320 374 436 Growth p.a. 3.1% 1.7% 1.0% 2.4% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% TOTAL SINGLE 672 681 686 696 744 815 889 970 Growth p.a. 1.3% 0.7% 0.5% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Inhabitants/dwelling 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 Multi dwellings houses 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 Single dwelling houses 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8
Surface, mln. sqm 72.0 72.9 73.6 76.0 83.8 92.0 100.0 109.7 Multi dwellings houses 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.7 32.8 36.0 38.7 42.1 Single dwelling houses 43.8 44.5 45.0 46.3 51.0 56.0 61.3 67.6
sqm/inhabitant 19.3 19.4 19.6 20.1 21.8 23.4 24.8 26.6 Multi dwellings houses 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.8 15.1 16.0 16.6 17.6 Single dwelling houses 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.5 30.6 33.2 36.0 39.0
sqm/dwelling 57.5 57.5 57.7 58.1 60.1 61.7 63.3 65.4 Multi dwellings houses 48.5 48.5 48.5 48.5 50.5 53.3 55.9 59.5 Single dwelling houses 65.2 65.3 65.6 66.5 68.5 68.7 69.0 69.7
SERVICES 1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Floor area, mln. sqm 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.6 20.1 22.7 25.4 28.1 Employment (1000) 480.1 512.8 490.0 510.0 530.0 560.0 600.0 650.0
TRADE 1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Floor area, mln sqm 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.8 9.1 11.5 13.9 16.4 Employment (1000) 152.3 188.6 190.0 195.0 210.0 235.0 245.0 270.0
Sources: Population: DoS; beginning of year * Does not match 1990 value given for Energy Balance 1990 (see TFES_90.wq1)
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
28 3.3 COST/PRICE DEFINITIONS AND PROJECTIONS
Calculation methods to be used for determining costs
The following principle apply for all cost items used in the calculations within Energy Toolbox (ETB):
(1) all costs are expressed in constant 1990 US-Dollar prices (USD90);
(2) all prices of investment costs are based on world market prices cif Lithuania, augmented by the appropriate local costs such as transport costs, handling charges, taxes, duties when necessary;
(3) The determination of shadow prices is beyond the scope of the Strategy Study. Due to the lack of more detailed information on employment and overall price distortions hi the Lithuanian economy, shadow prices have not been used in general, with the exception of the exchange rate for 1990 (see (4)).
(4) For the determination of constant costs the exchange rates and price indices shown in Table 3.3.1 were used (with the exception of the 1990 Rouble/USD exchange rate, respectively the Talonas/USD exchange rate for the years 1991 and 1992, see Table 3.3.1).
\C CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - C0W1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
29 Table 3.3.1 Exchange Rates for Selected Currencies, 1980 to 1993
1 USD=TAL* YEAR 1£=USD 1 USD=SKR 1 USD = FF 1USD=DM 1USD=DKR 1 USD=RBL 1 USD=LTL* 1 ECU=USD MUV-lndex
1980 2.326 4.230 4.226 1.818 5.636 0.649 1.392 0.720 1981 2.023 5.063 5.435 2.260 7.123 0.720 - 1.117 0.723 1982 1.751 6.283 6.572 2.427 8.332 0.725 - 0.980 0.711 1983 1.517 7.667 7.621 2.553 9.145 0.743 - 0.890 0.695 1984 1.336 8.272 8.739 2.846 10.357 0.816 - 0.789 0.680 1985 1.296 8.604 8.985 2.944 10.596 0.837 - 0.763 0.686 1986 1.467 7.124 6.926 2.172 8.091 0.687 - 0.984 0.809 1987 1.639 6.340 6.011 1.797 6.840 0.633 - 1.154 0.888 1988 1.781 6.127 5.957 1.756 6.732 0.596 - 1.182 0.953 1989 1.640 6.447 6.380 1.880 7.310 0.630 - 1.102 0.946 1990 1.745 5.919 5.445 1.616 6.189 0.584 - 1.273 1.000 1991 1.739 6.048 5.642 1.660 6.396 167.130 - 1.239 1.020 1992 1.765 5.515 5.286 1.560 6.028 414.500 382.000 1.298 . 1.049 1993 1.494 7.715 5.695 1.688 6.500 1060.000 4.400 1.185 1.090
Legend:
USD US-Dollar Period Average; 1993: June 30 FF French Franc Period Average; 1993: June 30 DM Deutsche Mark Period Average; 1993: June 30 E Pound Sterling Period Average; 1993: June 30 SKR Swedish Krona Period Average; 1993: June 30 DKR Danish Krone Period Average; 1993: June 30 RBL Russian Rouble 1930-90: period averages (official rates); 1991/92: end of year (central bank market rate) 1993: June 30 (central bank market rate) TAL (1) Lithuanian Talonas 1992: end of year; LTL (1) Lithuanian Utas 1993:June 30 MUV Manufacturing Unit Value
(1) The Talonas was introduced on October 1,1992, as a provisional legal tender replacing the Russian Rouble. The Talonas, in turn, was replaced on June 25,1993, by the Litas; Talonas certificates were exchanged against the Litas until July 19,1993, applying an exchange rate of 100 TAL = 1 LTL
Sources:
IMF, International Financial Statistics, Deutsche Bundesbank, Exchange Rates: Period Averages World Bank, International Economics Department
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - C0W1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
30 Projected International Fuel Prices
Three different projections were considered for determining future world market fuel prices. The price of crude oil served as a reference price to which the development of other energy prices were pegged. An exception was made for the price of nuclear fuel for the existing Ignalina plant, which is negotiable and not determined by the market, as well as for the price of wood chips and peat, which are not really tradeable energy forms. In the case that transport costs of fuels could not be determined an average cif/fob factor of 1.05 was used.
Three projections have been elaborated for the development of crude oil prices based on the inspection of forecasts supplied by other institutions. They are shown in Table 3.3.2, upper part, together with the actual development of prices in recent years.
The low and the high projections are thought to contain the band width of the potential price development, starting from the prices currently observed (in 1993):
(1) Low projection: this price path foresees an annual increase of some 2.5% until the year 2005. Thereafter it follows the price path implied by World Bank projections from 1992.
(2) High projection: this is virtually identical to the EU-projections except for a correction of the starting value in 1993. The projection implies rather drastic growth rates of more than 5% p.a. until the year 2000 which are only slightly reduced thereafter. In the absence of political disturbances and/or other events causing market disorder, it is felt that this projection is rather on the higher limit of any plausible development.
(3) Medium projection: given the actual low price level in comparison to historical values, and in view of the fact that the present price level differs from targets of both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, it is assumed that price recovery will be faster than implied by the low projections until the benchmark of USD 20/barreI is surpassed which would occur in the year 2000. Thereafter, a real price increase of 2,5% p.a. is assumed.
The price trajectory implied by the medium projection is sustainable under all above mentioned scenario environments.
The fast and moderate reforms-scenarios are not consistent with the high price projection which foresees real price increases of more than 5% p.a. until the end of the century. Given the considerable price hike Lithuania has to face already today, further price increases of this order of magnitude would forestall a fast economic recovery. For sensitivity analyses the high price projection was used only in conjunction with the slow reforms-scenario.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - C0W1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
31 Table 3.3.2 Development of Crude Oil and Other Fuels Prices, 1990 to 2013
Crude Oil Crude Oil Crude Oil Medium Scenario Low Scenario High Scenario YEAR USD/bbl % USD/bbl % USD/bbl %
1990 22.05 21.4% 22.1 21.4% 22.1 21.4% 1991 17.94 -18.7% 17.9 -18.7% 17.9 -18.7% 1992 15.25 -15.0% 15.3 -15.0% 15.3 -15.0% 1993 15.92 4.4% 15.9 4.4% 15.9 4.4% 1994 16.53 3.8% 16.3 2.5% 16.7 5.1% 1995 17.16 3.8% 16.7 2.5% 17.6 5.1% 1996 17.81 3.8% 17.2 2.5% 18.5 5.1% 1997 18.50 3.8% 17.6 2.5% 19.4 5.1% 1998 19.21 3.9% 18.0 2.5% 20.4 5.1% 1999 19.96 3.9% 18.5 2.5% 21.4 5.1% 2000 20.73 3.9% 19.0 2.5% 22.5 5.1% 2001 21.48 3.6% 19.4 2.5% 23.5 4.5% 2002 22.26 3.6% 19.9 2.5% 24.6 4.5% 2003 23.08 3.6% 20.4 2.5% 25.7 4.5% 2004 23.65 2.5% 21.0 2.5% 26.9 4.5% 2005 24.24 2.5% 21.5 2.5% 28.1 4.5% 2006 24.84 2.5% 22.2 3.3% 29.2 3.8% 2007 25.46 2.5% 22.8 2.7% 30.3 3.8% 2008 26.09 2.5% 23.4 2.6% 31.4 3.8% 2009 26.74 2.5% 24.0 2.6% 32.6 3.8% 2010 27.40 2.5% 24.7 2.9% 33.8 3.8% 2011 28.09 2.5% 25.3 2.5% 35.1 3.8% 2012 28.78 2.5% 26.0 2.5% 36.4 3.8% 2013 29.50 2.5% 26.6 2.5% 37.8 3.8%
Prices of Crude Oil and Other Energy Sources
Prices in USD/QJ (Medium Scenario)
YEAR Crude Oil Fuel Oil Diesel Coal Natural Gas
1990 3.86 2.90 5.02 2.08 3.11 1991 3.14 2.36 4.08 2.09 2.53 1992 2.67 2.00 3.47 2.05 2.15 1993 2.79 2.09 3.62 2.05 2.25 1994 2.89 2.17 3.76 2.05 2.33 1995 3.00 2.25 3.91 2.05 2.42 1996 3.12 2.34 4.05 2.05 2.51 1997 3.24 2.43 4.21 2.05 2.61 1998 3.36 2.52 4.37 2.05 2.71 1999 3.49 2.62 4.54 2.05 2.82 2000 3.63 2.72 4.72 2.05 2.93 2001 3.76 2.82 4.89 2.05 3.03 2002 3.90 2.92 5.07 2.05 3.14 2003 4.04 3.03 5.25 2.05 3.26 2004 4.14 3.11 5.38 2.05 3.34 2005 4.24 3.18 5.52 2.05 3.42 2006 4.35 3.26 5.65 2.09 3.51 2007 4.46 3.34 5.80 2.13 3.59 2008 4.57 3.43 5.94 2.17 3.68 2009 4.68 3.51 6.09 2.22 3.78 2010 4.80 3.60 6.24 2.26 3.87 2011 4.92 3.69 6.39 2.31 3.97 2012 5.04 3.78 6.55 2.35 4.06 2013 5.16 3.87 6.72 2.40 4.16
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
32 Prices of petroleum products as well as natural gas and coal were derived from the crude oil price by applying a constant relative price relationship based on energy equivalents. The resulting prices are shown for some of the energy forms in Table 3.3.2, lower part.
Projected Domestic Fuel Prices
The development of domestic fuel prices is based on the following assumptions:
Fast Reforms-Scenario and full liberalization of prices until 1995; no direct Moderate Reforms-Scenario subsidies on energy prices
Slow Reforms-Scenario liberalization of prices until 2000; considerable amount of subsidies and cross-subsidizing will be reduced sluggishly
In order to determine the price indices for 1995 and 2000 respectively, target prices expressed in 1990 constant USD were defined. For the purpose of energy demand forecasts, the prices had been distinguished for two consumer classes:
• Industrial: including industry, construction, transport, agriculture
• Residential: including households, trade and services
The target prices for fossil fuels were based on international prices as described in Table 3.3.3, augmented for local transport and distribution costs.
For electricity and heat the economic costs and, therefore, the target price is a function of the dispatch of the combined electricity and heat system. In particular, the price will be dependent upon the strategic choice whether the nuclear power station at Ignalina is operating or not. In the absence of more detailed information on the cost structure resulting from the tariff study under preparation by Kennedy & Donkin, the following assumptions have been used:
Energy Form Industry Residential
Electricity 4 x Price (gas) 4 x Price (gas)
Heat • with Ignalina 1.22 x Price (gas) 1.50 x Price (gas) • without Ignalina 0.50 x Price (gas) 0.61 x Price (gas)
The indices for the 1995 and 2000 energy prices were determined by relating the target prices to the 1990 constant USD prices for the major fuels. The price increases shown are quite tremendous for some fuels under consideration. The equivalent of the domestic Rouble prices in 1990 in USD were determined by applying a shadow exchange rate of 2 Roubles/USD in 1990 whereas the official exchange rate was 0.584 Roubles/USD (end of 1990).
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
33 Table 3.3.3 Import and Export Price Projections by Energy Forms, 1990 to 2015 (Medium Projection)
Projections of Import and Export Fuel Prices (in constant 1990 USD/GJ) Shadow exchange rate 1990:1 USD = 5 RBL
Import Prices erf Lithuanian I3order USD90/GJ
Year Crude Fuel oil Coal Nat. Gas Diesel Gasoline Nuclear Fuel 100% CR HFO CO NG DS MG LFO LPG NF Rel. Price 1,00 0,75 0,81 1,30 1,43 1,30 1,43 Klaipeda Klaipeda Klaipeda Klaipeda Klaipeda Klaipeda Klaipeda Klaipeda 1990 3,86 2,90 2,08 3,11 5,02 5,52 5,02 5,52 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 3,00 2,25 2,05 2,42 3,90 4,29 3,90 4,29 2000 3,63 2,72 2,05 2,93 4,72 5,19 4,72 5,19 2005 4,24 3,18 2,05 3,42 5,51 6,06 5,51 6,06 2010 4,80 3,60 2,26 3,87 6,24 6,86 6,24 6,86 2015 5,43 4,07 2,50 4,38 7,06 7,76 7,06 7,76
Import Prices including local transport cost USD90/GJ
Year Crude Fuel oil Coal Nat. Gas Diesel Gasoline Nuclear Fuel 105,0% CR HFO CO NG DS MG LFO LPG NF 5 0,75 1,30 1,43 1,30 1,43 estim. 1990 0,14 0,11 0,34 0,13 0,17 0,25 0,32 0,46 0,82 1991 0,07 0,05 0,14 0,07 0,09 0,12 0,16 0,23 0,82 1992 2,99 2,24 0,84 2,23 2,89 4,14 5,38 7,69 1993 2,03 1,53 0,34 2,62 3,41 4,87 6,34 9,06 2,16 1994 1995 3,00 2,36 2,15 2,42 4,10 4,50 4,10 4,50 2000 3,63 2,86 2,15 2,93 4,95 5,45 4,95 5,45 2005 4,24 3,34 2,15 3,42 5,79 6,37 5,79 6,37 2010 4,80 3,78 2,37 3,87 6,55 7,21 6,55 7,21 2015 5,43 4,28 2,63 4,38 7,41 8,15 7,41 8,15
Export Prices fob Klaipeda USD90/GJ
Year Crude Fuel oil Coal Nat. Gas Diesel Gasoline Electricity 90,0% CR HFO CO NG DS MG LFO LPG EE
1990 0,11 0,13 1991 0,07 1992 2,23 1993 2,62 1994 1995 2,36 3,51 3,86 3,51 3,86 2000 2,86 4,25 4,67 4,25 4,67 2005 3,34 4,96 5,46 4,96 5,46 2010 3,78 5,62 6,18 5,62 6,18 2015 4,28 6,35 6,99 6,35 6,99
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
34 It should be noted, however, that the determination of the equivalent of the domestic Rouble prices in 1990 in international currency is not unambiguous due to the then existing price distortions and the lack of a free currency exchange for the Rouble. Estimates of the "true" value of the Rouble in 1990 range from 1 to 10 Roubles/USD.
It is obvious that a preferred approach to assess the impact of switching from a distorted price system to one orientated at covering economic cost in terms of the costs to the consumers would consist in relating the corresponding expenditures for energy consumption to the disposable income. Unfortunately, detailed data on income and expenditures became available only after the bulk of the calculations had already been performed. Anyway, the shadow rate of 2 Roubles per USD is believed to reflect the purchasing power parities for domestic prices closer than the shadow rate used for import and export prices (5 Roubles per USD, see section 3.3.2.).
The projection of energy prices does not consider the actual price development in the years 1991 to 1993, because these are not relevant for long-term strategic planning. The analysis of the energy price developments in this period would not contribute to a more thorough analysis. This is best illustrated by the following figures: price increases varied among the different energy products; during 1991 and 1992 the range of increase in current prices was 107 % up to 101000 % in local currency (December 1992 compared to prices of December 1990). In constant 1990 prices, price increases were between 77 % and 1560 %. The price in real terms is not easily established because this will depend very much upon the specific point in time which will be used for the analysis. E.g., by the end of 1991, real prices for almost all energy products had fallen below the end 1990 level. The effective increases took place only in 1992.
Domestic Prices Used in the ETB Model
In order to facilitate the runs of the ETB model, simplifying assumptions had to be made regarding the price vector for domestic energy consumption. Energy forms have been aggregated to major groups as follows:
• Solid fuels, including coal, coke, wood and peat. As coal is the dominating fuel in this group, the average of industrial and residential coal prices was taken as a basis.
• Transport oil includes mainly diesel and gasoline.
• Boiler oil consists of a mix of heavy fuel oil and heating oil.
• Natural gas constitutes a separate item.
• Industrial heat consists of district heat and process heat for the industrial sector.
• Residential heat reflects district heat for the residential and services sector.
• Electricity refers to the average of residential and industrial electricity tariff.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
35 The resulting average domestic prices have been expressed in 1990 constant USD per GJ. For the moderate reforms-scenario, they can be summarized as shown in Table 3.3.4:
Table 3.3.4 Domestic Energy Prices in Moderate Reforms-Scenario (USD/GJ)
Year Solid Tansport Boiler Natural Industr. Resident. Electric. Fuels Oil Oil Gas Heat* Heat* EE SF TO BO NG RH RH 1990 0.42 3.96 0.45 0.46 1.00 0.30 4.86 1995 2.75 4.36 2.25 2.68 3.27 4.02 10.72 2000 2.75 5.15 2.70 3.23 3.96 4.85 12.99 2005 2.75 5.94 3.20 3.74 4.66 5.68 15.27 2010 3.05 6.73 3.60 4.25 5.25 6.38 17.22 2015 3.05 6.73 3.60 4.25 5.25 6.38 17.22
With Ignalina in operation
3.4 DEFINITION OF ENERGY FORMS
Table 3.4.1 displays the energy carriers and energy products together with their net calorific values, which have been included in the scenario computations with ETB.
Table 3.4.1 Energy Forms c CC Energy carriers Energy Products Net calorific value {*) Unit (Quelle: LEI MJ/unit toe/1000 units
c PE COAL/COKE Peat kg 9.94 0.237 c CB COAUCOKE Coal Briquettes kg 16.75 0.4O0 c SC COAL/COKE Steam Coal kg 23.51 0.562 c CK COAL/COKE Coke kg 28.33 0.677
E EE ELECTRICITY Electricity kWh 3.60 0.086
G NG GAS Natural gas cbm 33.70 0.805 G RG GAS Refinery gas (dry) kg 43.96 1.050
H HE HEAT Heat Meal 4.19 0.100
N NU NUCLEAR Nuclear MJ 1.00 0.024
O GF OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Gas Turbine Fuel kg 42.33 1.011 O SF OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Ship's fuel kg 41.87 1.000 O LU OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Lubricants kg 38.10 0.910 O Bl OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Bitumen kg 39.75 0.950 O LG OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Liquified gas kg 45.88 1.096 O KE OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Kerosene kg 43.96 1.050 O GA OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Motor Gasoline kg 43.68 1.043 O CR OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Crude oil kg 41.87 1.000 O PC OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Petrol coke kg 31.67 0.757 O JF OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Jet kerosene kg 43.09 1.029 O LF OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Light fuel oil kg 42.53 1.016 O Dl OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Diesel oil kg 42.49 1.015 O HF OIL/OIL-PRODUCTS Heavy fuel oil kg 40.15 0.959
R WO RENEWABLES Wood cbdm 7.78 0.186 R RE RENEWABLES Hydro MJ 1.00 0.024
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
36 3.5 EMISSION COEFFICIENTS
Tables 3.5.1 to 3.5.4 provide the emission coefficients as to nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur
dioxide (SO,), carbon dioxide (CO2), and total suspended participates (TSP).
The coefficients are quoted for the various fuel consuming energy subsectors and fuels. Multiplication of the coefficients with the subsectoral fuel inputs and summation for the fuels gives rise to the total subsectoral emission, summation for the subsectors results in the release in the year/energy scenario under consideration.
The codes of the energy sectors drawn up are those used in the RES energy system representation of ETB, namely:
PROCESS Oil Refining and Other Processes POWERGEN Power Plants COGEN CHP (Non-Industrial) HEATGEN HOB (Non-Industrial) INDGEN CHP, HOB (Industrial) TRANSMISS Transmission (Power, Heat, Gas) DISTRIBN Distribution (Power, Heat, Gas) INDUSTRY Industry TRANSPORT Transportation RES-SERV Residential and Services Sectors AGRIC Agriculture
IC CONSULT- ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
37 Table 3.5.1 Emission Coefficients - Nitrogen Oxides (NO ) in kg/GJ Fuel Input 1 to o t0 0 61 0 to o 19 0.1 9 °- J 0.1 9 0.0 6 0.1 9 NGa s 1 1.6 0 0.2 5 0.2 5 0.2 5 0.1 8 0.1 8 0.1 5 OO P I Wo 1 1 0.1 5 to o to o to o to o to o to o to o 1 LP G SZ O 1.6 0 0.2 5 0.2 5 0.1 8 0.1 5 0.1 8 0.1 5 HF O 90 0 1 1.2 0 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.0 6 Diese l 90 0 90 0 90 0 90 0 0.0 6 0.0 6 0.0 6 0.8 0 Kerosen e
VA 0. 6 0. 6 0. 6 0.0 6 0.0 6 0.0 6 d 0.7 0 Gasolin e 0.3 6 0.3 6 0.3 6 0.2 4 0.3 6 0.2 4 0.1 0 0.2 4 Coa l 0.2 4 0.2 4 (L2 4 Cok e
o a © o o o o o © © Rene w so o 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 1 0.0 5 Woo d 0X 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 Pea t xo o 10 0 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 Crud e PROCES S C O GE N INDGE N DISTRIB N POWERGE N HEATGE N RE S SER V TRANSMIS S TRANSPOR T IAGRI C I INDUSTR Y
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
38 Table 3.5.2 Emission Coefficients - Sulphur Dioxide (S02) in kg/GJ Fuel Input 1 00 0 I 00 0 I 00 0 1 00 0
V9 a o 0.0 0 [ 0.0 0 | 0.0 0 | z o 0.0 0 | 1.5 0 1.5 0 1.5 0 1.5 0 1.5 0 1.5 0 1.5 0 OO P [ 1.5 0 00 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 LP G 1.3 2 1.3 2 1.3 2 1.3 2 1.3 2 1.3 2 1.3 2 1.3 2 IIF O 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.1 5 0.1 5 Diese l or o 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 Kerosen e 0.0 3 0.0 3 0.0 3 0.0 3 0.0 3 0.0 3 0.0 3 0.0 3 Gasolin e 1.0 2 1.0 2 1.0 2 1.0 2 1.0 2 1.0 2 1.0 2 1.0 2 | Coa l 1.0 2 1.0 2 1.0 2 Cok e
a a a a o a a o Rene w too o too o 0.00 4 0.00 4 0.00 4 0.00 4 0.00 4 0.00 4 | Woo d too o too o Pea t 0.00 4 0.00 4 0.00 4 0.00 4 0.00 4 ___ap_04__ . 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 I 0.0 5 0.0 5 Crud e [PROCES S | COGE N I TRANSMIS S IAGRI C I INDUSTR Y ITRANSPOR T | POWERGE N I IIEATGE N 1 INDGE N | DISTRIB N IRE S SER V
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
39 Table 3.5.3 Emission Coefficients - Carbon Dioxide (C02) in kg/GJ Fuel Input
VO VO VO vo VO vo VO VO VO VD in in in in
NGa s 1 m m m m m
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
OO P o
m m VO VO VO VO VO VO VO VO vo VO VO LP G
0 s
N N (N N IN (S N (N Diese l
N N N N N N N Cv) Kerosene ,
(N Gasolin e
O\ 0\ 0> Ov O\ Ov O\ Ov 0> O\ Coa l
CO CO 00 ce CO CO 00 00 CO 00 oo o o o Cok e
o o o o o o o o o o o Rene w
in in in m in in in in in in c o © o o o o o Woo d
00 oc CO oc ce 00 oc 00 oc 00 © ©
Pea t a o
t-- c» *•* "*" '** Crud e COGE N DISTRIB N PROCES S POWERGE N HEATGE N INDGE N INDUSTR Y RE S SER V TRANSMIS S TRANSPOR T 1 AGRI C
IC CONSULT- ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
40 I
o Crude Peat Wood Renew Coke Coal Gasoline Kerosene Diesel HFO LPG OOP NGas 8 PROCESS 0.0004 0.220 0.220 0.00 0.00 POWERGEN 0.0004 0.220 0.220 0.00 10.20 10.20* 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 CO GEN 0.0004 0.220 0.220 0.00 10.20 10.20 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 ro HEATGEN 0.0004 0.220 0.220 0.00 10.20 10.20 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 IN D GEN 0.0004 0.220 0.220 0.00 10.20 10.20 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 TRANSMISS DISTRIBN INDUSTRY 0.0004 0.220 0.220 0.00 10.20 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 § TRANSPORT 0.0004 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 2> RES SERV 0.0004 0.220 0.220 0.00 10.20 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 AGRIC 0.0004 0.220 0.220 0.00 10.20 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 I I Assumes 10% ash 8 en I
r c
en a73 IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
42 4. PROJECTION OF ENERGY DEMAND
4.1 CONCEPTUAL CONSIDERATIONS
At the present stage, the projection of energy demand in Lithuania is hampered foremost by following circumstances:
• there is no commonly shared data base with regard to energy consumption by the different economic sectors and individual industries. As a consequence, one can observe some divergences between the consumption data published by different organisations and authorities in the sector such as LEI and DoS.
• the present situation of transition adds further problems to the task of establishing a thorough base of energy consumption statistics;
• the rate of response of industrial establishments to the questionnaires sent out by DoS and other authorities, such as the Ministry of Economics, has dropped considerably;
• the adaptation of the statistical system to standards different from those formerly applied has not yet been accomplished properly; hence the methodology applied for establishing energy flows and balances is not agreed upon between different institutions;
• a growing share of shadow economy activities is not covered by official statistics;
• the forced reduction of energy consumption by discretionary measures such as the curtailment of heat distribution due to supply shortages does not produce a true reflection of the energy requirements of the country.
As a consequence, for the projection of energy demand, it was decided to take the 1990 figures of energy consumption as a starting point rather than considering more recent values. It has to be noted that the choice of 1990 as base year also creates some problems as the consumption was distorted by boycott measures from the side of the former Soviet Union after the declaration of independence of Lithuania. However, in view of the fact that more comprehensive statistics are available for this year it seems a preferred choice to any more recent year.
4.2 CHOSEN APPROACH
Determinants of Energy Demand/Activity Variables
Starting from the specific consumption figures observed in 1990, the development of the final domestic energy demand has been modelled by the following steps:
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
43 (1) Assessment of behavioural reactions of the consumers on the projected income and price developments whose impacts on energy demand are calculated via corresponding assumptions on income and price elasticities.
(2) Assessment of the additional energy saving potential in each individual sector, which was derived from two factors:
• The differential resulting from a comparison of eneigy intensities presently observed in Lithuania and average intensities in Western Europe.
• The future potential for further reductions in the specific consumption of energy in individual sectors until the end of the planning horizon in 2015 starting from presently observed West European averages.
The methodology applied can be described concisely by the following formula, where the first three factors are those described under (1), and the fourth takes account of the effects under (2).
E.. (t) = E.. (t-1) * [ACT (t) / ACT; (t-1)] ^
* [pii (0 / P •• (t-l)]Wjl) •CONS... where
i subsector; i = 1,2,..., I j index for the energy form considered; j = 1, 2,..., J 1 end-use appliance t time index; t = 1990,1995, 2000,2005, 2010 E energy demand in PJ ACT index variable to describe the activity level of the sector Pj- price of energy form j in sector i tt(ijl) income elasticity in sector i for fuel j and use 1 j3(ijl) price elasticity in sector i for fuel j and use 1 CONS additional conservation effects
The activity variables used are:
Industry, Construction, Agriculture, Services and Trade
• Value added indices in constant 1990 Roubles based on the macroeconomic scenarios shown in Chapter 3.
Transport
• Road Transport: • Gasoline/LPG/Natural Gas: GDP per capita
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
44 • Electricity: urban population [or GDP] • Diesel/LFO: value added in the transport sector • Rail Transport: GDP • Other: value added in the transport sector
Residential
m Heating: GDP per capita times adjustment factors, which include:
• Fossil fuels: floor area in so-called single houses • District heat: floor area in so-called multi houses • Electricity: total floor area for dwellings
• Cooking: GDP per capita times adjustment factors, which include:
• Wood/Peat: number of rural dwellings • Electricity: number of total dwellings • Natural Gas: number of urban dwellings • Electricity: number of total dwellings
The number of dwellings serves as a proxy for the number of households, on which no corresponding information was available.
• Lighting/other appliances: GDP per capita
The urban/rural split was calculated based on the following parameters:
• Heating
• Coal: share of single dwellings in urban area • Wood: 10% urban/90% rural • Natural gas: 99% urban • District heat: 100% urban • Electricity: according to population shares
No information on the rural/urban split of the floor area was available at the time of the preparation of the scenarios.
• Cooking
• Wood: 10% urban/90% rural • LPG: according to population shares • Natural gas: 99% urban • Electricity: according to population shares
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
45 • Lighting/other appliances according to population shares
Other Sectors
The energy consumption of "Others" in 1990 was heavily related to the consumption of the "Red Army". It is assumed to be halved in 1995, and completely phased out by the year 2000.
Income Elasticities
The income elasticities used range in general from 0.5 to 0.9. This is in line with estimates in other East European Countries in transition to a market economy.
Price Elasticities
It is well known that price reactions of consumers may differ in the short- and long-run. The model allows for different elasticities for the five year periods considered. The reaction on price changes in the short-run is limited, and it varies for individual fuels and end-use appliances. The long-run reactions are heavily dependent on the change in the use of more efficient appliances and equipment. At present, only sparse information is available on the efficiency and the penetration rates of end-use equipment.
In calculating the results for use in the Strategy Study, no major variations of the elasticities have been assumed. Generally, the price elasticities assumed range from -0.5 to -0.15.
Conservation Effects
Over and beyond the energy savings already achieved by considering price effects, the conservation effect tries to cover energy savings which would take place even without any considerable price effects. In this context one has to distinguish between;
• the technical conservation potential
• the economic potential given the projected price and income structure
• the achievable potential under consideration of discretionary measures such as demand side management, regulatory and other measures, eg: • industrialization efforts and infrastructure developments, • policy decisions to promote the use of specific fuels, • the effect of conservation measures and of regulatory interventions. The conservation potential for the various economic subsectors is given in Table 4.2.1.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
46 Table 4.2.1 Additional Conservation Effects and Total Intensity Reductions
Additional Conservation Effects Total Intensity Reduction
Reduction Factors (Index 1990 = 1) (Index 1990 = 1) High Efficiency Basic Efficiency Price Effect High Efficiency Basic Efficiency Only Industry Chemicals Fertilizer 0.9 1 0.63 0.57 0.63 Others 0.7 1 0.71 0.49 0.71 Machinery 0.7 1 0.71 0.50 0.71 Paper 0.7 1 0.68 0.48 0.68 Buildings Cement 0.6 1 0.71 0.43 0.71 Others 0.75 1 0.66 0.50 0.66 Light Ind. 0.95 1 0.63 0.60 0.63 Food 0.95 1 0.65 0.62 0.65 Other 0.6 1 0.69 0.41 0.69 Construction 0.6 1 0.70 0.42 0.70 Transport Road 0.6 0.8 0.92 0.55 0.74 Rail 0.8 1 0.85 0.68 0.80 Air 0.5 0.8 0.87 0.43 0.70 Water 0.5 1 0.79 0.40 0.79 Agriculture Heat 0.6 0.8 0.68 0.41 0.54 Light 0.5 0.6 0.81 0.40 0.65 Other 0.9 1 0.89 0.80 0.89 Residential Urban Heat 0.8 1 0.51 0.42 0.51 Cooking 1 1 0.36 0.36 0.36 L/E* 0.34 0.66 0.65 0.50 0.58 Rural Heating 0.9 1 0.45 0.41 0.45 Cooking 1 1 0.42 0.42 0.42 L/E* 0.33 0.65 0.65 0.57 0.61 Services Heating 0.9 1 0.62 0.55 0.62 L/E* 0.36 0.44 0.44 0.40 0.42
L/E = Lighting/Other Electrical Appliances
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
47 Two cases are distinguishec
• Basic (ie trend given) Efficiency
• High Efficiency
In most cases, the basic efficiency effect is already captured by the price effect, only for lighting and electricity as well as for road transport and agriculture the penetration of high efficiency technologies will reduce the intensity further. High efficiency (low intensity) will add to this combined effect a further reduction of some 5% in the year 2015 over all consumer categories.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
48 5. PROJECTS
In the following, a list of the projects is provided which were assessed in the course of the Strategy Study.
ELECTRICITY SECTOR
1. IGNALINA a) Safety Measures in High Nuclear -1 b) Safety Measures in Low Nuclear -1 c) Spent fuel storage -1 d) Unit 1 decommissioning scenario case 1995 -1 e) Unit 2 decommissioning scenario case 1995 -1 f) LWR installation 1200 MW after d) 1.2 KRUONIS a) pumped storage plant 3rd unit 200 MW b) pumped storage plant 4th unit 200 MW -1 1.3 ELEKTRENAI a) Efficiency Enhancement and Refurbishment
b) SO2 and NOx Control -1 c) Gas Turbine Topping Cycle - repower •1.4 COAL a) Coastal Coal fired Power Station - 600 MW 1.5 CHP a) Efficiency Improvement - Vilnius b) Efficiency Improvement - Kaunas c) Efficiency Improvement - Klaipeda d) Efficiency Improvement - Mazeikiai e) Efficiency Improvement - Others 1.6 TRANSMISSION a) High-Voltage -1 b) New High-Voltage Transmission Ignalina-Kruonis c) Interconnection - Scandinavia d) Interconnection - Poland 1.7 DISTRIBUTION a) Low-Voltage -1 1.8 DISPATCH a) Dispatch Centre Control Improvements
HEAT SECTOR
2.1 BUILDINGS a) Retrofitting/Insulation of Old Buildings b) Improved Building Insulation of New Buildings c) Introduction of Heat Controls and Metering 2.2 CHP and HOB a) Kedainiai system renovation and CHP construction REHABILITATION b) Alytus System renovation and CHP construction c) Vilnius System renovation d) Panevezys System renovation and CHP construction e) Marijampole System renovation and CHP construction f) Siauliai System renovation and CHP construction g) Prienai Construction of wood peat/straw fuelled boilers h) Small towns
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
49 g) Mazeikiai DH Transmission Pipeline 2.3 GAS a) Vilnius; b) Kaunas; c) Klaipeda; d) Others. 2.4 OIL a) Individual heating facilities 2.5 ELECTRICITY a) Electric water heating
OIL SECTOR
3.2 CRUDE OIL a) Domestic on-shore production 3.3 PIPELINES/ a) Import facility -1 STORAGE b) Low cost import facility -1 c) Major product export facility -1 d) Klaipeda and Ventspils product exports e) Strategic reserves -1 3.4 REFINERY a) Partial Upgrade -1 b) Full Upgrade -1 3.5 CONSUMPTION a) Pipeline Distribution b) Filling Station Replacements
GAS SECTOR
4.1 PIPELINES a) Pipeline from Panevezys to Klaipeda -1 b) Distribution Expansion -1 4.2 STORAGE a) Enhanced underground Storage in Latvia b) Storage faculties in Lithuania 4.3 METERING a) Gas metering stations at the borders b) Gas metering in every household
RENEWABLES
5.1 HYDROPOWER a) Expansion -1 5.2 GEOTHERMAL a) Sources for Heat Supply (Western Lithuania) 5.3 BIOMASSUSE a) Wood chips in Boilers b) Straw Burning c) Peat d) Poultry litter 12 MW 5.4 WIND POWER a) Small units 5.5 BIOGAS a) Use in agricultural components for boilers 5.6 SOLAR a) Thermal Energy for Hot Water in Rural Areas 5.7 REFUSE a) Incineration (Municipal Waste)
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
50 6. RESULTS OF ENERGY SCENARIO COMPUTATIONS
6.1 RESULT TABLES INFORMA TION
Each of the 24 scenarios is presented by means of nine result information time series, ie:
1. Primary Energy (PJ) 2. OiI&Gas(PJ) 3. Electricity (TWh) 4. Power Generating Capacities (MW) 5. Fuel Inputs into CHP and HOB Schemes (PJ) 6. Heat from CHP and HOB Schemes (PJ) 7. Residential Heat (PJ) 8. Conversion Efficiency (%) 9. End-use Conservation (-)
6.2 RESULT TABLES FOR SELECTED ENERGY SCENARIOS
Tables 6.1.a,b,c to 6.6.a,b,c provide results of the scenario computations.
IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE
51 Table 6.1a Results of Scenario 6A ato r
jrit y # o in CO in CO CD co co CO CO In d "O E 3 cn cn CD CO re CO CO N o ^> CO CM c CO CO **• in c o o CO o> CO CO rt CO CO CO o ,- tn o re 00 in 00 CO o oo in cn CO re n o CO tn cn CM CO 05 o CM CO T— CM CM m CD To t Imp c O CM CO co CO CO CO CO CO CO CO o *p co o o o o O o 5_5j CO CO CO CO CO CO CO u. EPO o o o o o o X i I I I I I I I I 1 1 z 7+T " i co cn CO oo CO 00 O o o o o o -8 7 1 I I I I Ro R Hydr o HYDR O Product s t*. f- CL 00 CO 00 in cn CO CO CO CO £5 co CO 3. 3 CM 14 8 *- CM CM CM CO ENE W oduct s CO Pro d m CO 00 o m o T— ro CM •tf CO • CO m cn 23 1 22 1 CM CM CM CM 21 3 22 2 22 2 o ' GA S Foss i Crud i Impor i Existi n O CD 00 o o o o o re _, N 05 •D CD o 05 CO T- cn 05 o O IUJ0 Q BSt i o o o o o CO t^ CO 00 3 CO CO CO CO to o CO o co 25 . 45 . 45 . 45 . 45 . o Nuc l o o o in o in o in o m o in o in o in CO re in c5 cn o o cn cn o o cn cn o o G) CD cn O5 o o o o CD cn cn o o o o CD en cn o o o fs. •>- *~ CM CM CVI CM ^~ *~ '~ CM CM CM CM •"~ *~ CM CM CM 5CM cn O O o O O O O O O O o o . O O o o o o • • CO CO co CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO UJ LU UJ m CD CO tn CO m m tn m m m m 03 m CO CO CO CO Q in X X X X X X CO X X X X I X X X X X X X re CD CD CD CD CD CD re CD CD CD CD CD CD re CD CD CD CD CD CD CD X X X X X X CD X X I X X X CD X X X I X X (PJ ) o x: in o in si tn o a. o o o o o o o o o o por t o o o o X CO CM CM CM CM CM CO CM CM CM CM CM X CO CM CM CM CM CM" C3 UJ T— UJ UJ £C ^^ i tA1I S EN E S (P J clea r 5 5 5 clea r 5 clea r 5 5 5 5 >• 3 O O < 3 O O O 3 o_i o_l o c _j o _j _j o — o o o o o_J cc z o Z _J Z _i _i _J g < 0*3 ;cTf i LJJ E —I 5 § 5 _1 5 5 § 0. O LLJ CD o o c CD o o o E o g g g g g CD g g g g g Q CO CO co cc CO tr. CM' o CO CO CO CO CO c7 CO o CO CO CO CO CO CO IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 52 Table 6.1b Results of Scenario 6A (first continuation) :M CM CM cn 3TA L J36 1 155 9 171 8 164 2 180 1 Dsse s CM CM CM 20 % in CD o CO CO cn cn cn o #n o o CL, m 03 O CO 5 CM CM CM 25 . CO § 5 CM ° CO CO Los : _ CM CM o 13 CO CO CO CO CO CD 03 O ©• CO CO in CO cn o in ivere d P S o o o 8 CO* CO 03 Hea t 107 . Hydr o rOTA L CD 1 D in CM ,_ o 03 O O o © o o © o o CD CO 14 5 44 1 CO 03 29 0 CH P Ne w Hea t 10 6 135. 4 118 . 132 . Tota l ELE C £0 9 rr CO CO CO CO cn yr- CM 1. 2 80 2 CM CO in 79 5 80 4 81 6 59 5 * CH P **" Rene w RENE W 03 - Q co CO CO CO in CO cn CD CO 03 in CD CO CO o CD o o o o o o CM o o O © CO O3 CO CO u. 2 03 in CO CO CO SO L X o o o o o o a. Y— cn CO ;si l tin g CO m CO CO CO CO CO 10 m CO CO T— CO 03 O CO o o O o U- CO T— Exis l Indu s 009 c 092 1 092 1 092 1 CO m co CO CO CO CM O3 O3 cn CO O3 CO 03 CM CO 11 4 o jclea r 125 0 125 0 CO o inlnd . 32. 7 CM CM CM 2 CO u. Q 10 o in o in o in o in o to o in o © in CO cn cn o o 0. CO cn 03 o o CO cn en o o CD cn cn o o o © *—* CD cn CO o o o CD cn 03 o o O o C\J CM CM CM CO > CM CM CM 5CM > CM CM CM CM Ul 2 5 O O O O o O Ul O o o O o O O O o o O O o 03 03 CO CO CO 03 CJ CO CO CO 03 CO 03 » o CO CO CO CO CO CO UJ Ul UJ UJ v> CO CO CO CO CO CO CO in CO CO CO CO 5 CO CO CO CO CD CO UJ UJ OB S X x Q in X I X X I X CO X X I X X X o CO X X X X X X 10 CO CO CO CO CO CO Q co CO COCO CO CO CO CO 10 CO CO CO CO CO CO 0_ CO CO X X X X I I < CO X X X X X X CO X X X X X X o D. oX CD o o in JZ in o o o o in o o o o o Z r> o o o o o oor t o o n X CO CM CM CM CM CM CO CM CM CM CM CM X CO CM CM CM CM CM UJ o UJ P AN D UJ CC z X u 5 s 5 2 3EN E clea r 5 5 5 'UT S I clea r 5 5 § clea r § 5 5 5 3 O o o o a. 3 o o O o oc 3 O o o O m | | oLL11 . 3 3 I 3 3 3 3 UJ z1 •J O 5 5 UJ 5 5 5 5 < 5 § 5 LL X o. CD o o o o o CD o o o o o CD o o o o g •-J 3 3 3 o CO CO CO CO 03 CO in Q CO CO CO CO CO en co Q 03 CO CO CO CO CO IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 53 Table 6.1c Results of Scenario 6A (second continuation) _l o CM CM 1- CM cn CO in CM o> O CO m in 10 CO CO _ _i CO CM CM o o • CM o in co 03 o 5 imn CO CO CO CO tn 1.0 0 1 66 % 56 % 65 % 64 % 65 % in in in 67 % o o o om Fuel s S c m Tota l o Agri - m cultur e T O CO cn CM cn CO CO CO CO 0 o ± o CM CO tia l o CO CO « CO ^_ O CM CM CM CM OJ CO c o O CO |v- fVi |v. CM CO 00 CO CO CO CD CD 1 O CD X co CC ~ •*" o o o o o o o o o CM CO CO in O CO CO CO 1.0 0 69 % 69 % 69 % 70 % 70 % 71 % o o o o o o CH P o o o o ectricit y anspor t LU |v. 03 to CO o 03 o CM CO CO tric t ssi l # # o § S2 CO CO CD CO CO CO CO X CM o CM o CO CO CO CO CO o o o o o Di s CM LL Ind u o in o in O in o in o in o m o in o in o in CO CO CO CD cOn) cn o o CD cn cn o o CD cn 0cn3 o o cn CoM CoM CoM CoM cn cn CoM CoM CoM CoM cn CoM CoM CoM CoM "~ > O O o O O o ti O O o O o O O O o O o o CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO o CO CO CO CO CO CO ffi c LU m tn CQ CQ CO CO w 00 m CQ m CQ CD itLU: m CO CD CQ CQ m CO X X X X X X CO X X X X I I CO X X X X I X CO CD CD CD CD CD CO CD CD CD CD CD CD CO CD CD CD CD CD CD X X aX X X X CD X X X I X X CD X X X X X Xo ^> IO N NC Y in o o o o £Z o sz o ICI E in o o o H- oor t Dor t o | 3or t in o o o o o X CO CM CM CM CM CM LL X CO CM CM CM CM CM X CO CM CM CM CM CM LU UJ LL LU LU UJ X UJ (0 o CO CD TIA L clea r 5 5 5 SIO N clea r 5 5 5 5 o 5 5 Z 3 O EC 3 O O oLU 3 O UJ 2 _j _oi _ol o_l o_l o UJ o_i _J o o_i —1 o_i CO 2 o_i o_l _oi o_i _ol _j Q z CO z D . UJ § 5 5 5 o 5 § § Z S 5 CE LU E o CD 03 o Q CgO CgO gCO gCO CgO CgO eo' D CgO CgO CgO gCO CgO CgO 0) Q gCO gCO CgO CgO gCO _J N CO IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 54 i Table 6.2a Results of Scenario 12A n 1. PRIMARY ENERGY (PJ) Date: 9/7/93 8 | Dem. Nuclear Export Gas Effic. Year to TWh OIL GAS SOLIDS RENEW HYDRO NUCLEAR TOTAL .o • SLOW NO 16.5 LOW BASIC 1990 317 198 48 4 3 178 749 SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 1995 200 139 30 4 4 0 378 if SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2000 204 150 31 6 4 0 395 a. ra SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2005 219 164 34 10 4 0 432 o SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2010 231 186 37 15 4 0 472 I SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2015 242 205 40 21 4 0 512 n o 2. OIL & GAS (PJ) 8 Dem. Nuclear Export Gas Effic. Year Crude Crude Products Products Products HFO Gas Inland Security TWh Domestic Imports Imports Exports (+/-) (+/-) Imports Consum. Indicator SLOW NO 16.5 LOW BASIC 1990 0.18 423 55 148 -93 3 198 689 77% SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 1995 25.00 222 0 47 -47 0 139 371 85% SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2000 45.00 206 0 47 -47 0 150 388 80% SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2005 45.00 221 0 47 -47 0 164 425 80% SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2010 45.00 233 0 47 -47 0 186 465 80% SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2015 45.00 244 0 47 -47 0 205 505 80% 3. ELECTRICITY (TWh) Dem. Nuclear Export Gas Effic. Year Fossil Fossil Hydro Hydro TWh Nuclear Existing New CHP RoR PS Total m SLOW NO 16.5 LOW BASIC 1990 16.0 7.2 0.0 3.3 0.4 0.0 26.8 SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 1995 0.0 7.3 0.0 1.9 0.4 -0.2 9.5 o73 SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2000 0.0 7.5 0.0 3.1 0.4 -0.2 10.8 < SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2005 0.0 7.8 0.0 3.3 0.4 -0.2 11.4 SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2010 0.0 8.0 0.0 3.5 0.4 -0.2 11.8 SLOW NO 2.0 LOW BASIC 2015 0.0 8.2 0.0 3.7 0.4 -0.2 12.0 Table 6.2b Results of Scenario 12A (first continuation) _1 05 CO 8 11 1 12 9 sse s 20 1 CM CM * CO CM CM T- o o o m CO CO CO CO CO o CM CM CM CM CM CO CD o CO CO O O O :a l © o m o o o © o o in cn o CM 24 . CO CM CM CM 26 . CO CO CO Los s CM CM o CO CO CO CO CO co cn CO o CO 5- cn P S © 94 , CO 75 , CO o o o o m Hea t 110. 4 107 . Hydr o TOTA L Delivere d m CM CM ,_ o o o © o o o o o o CO CO 14 5 CO 29 0 45 9 CH P Ne w Hea t 11 8 135. 4 106 . Tota l 133 , ELE C cn Q. in CM CO CO CO UJ CD CM CM CM CO CO CO **• CO cn CM CO T— O r- CO h- m in z ••" *~ CD *- CM CO m CLCU cc CO "co 9 CO CO o CO ,_ m CM o r^ m 00 o CD CO CO O CM CO LL o o o o o o d CM CO O O CO s s CO o o o o © © a. cn isi l tin g "co cn vt CO to LO I QCO CO ClO CO CO CO o CO m CO CO CO o ^» N CO cn o uo. LU o o o o © o CO CO ea r a. cn CM in m CO cn CO o O Ind . o o m cn in CO f^ cn o X _ CM T— CO in in CM 3 CM o CO CM CM CM CM CO Z o o z w o m o in o in o in © in o m o in o in o m CO CD o o CL CO cn cn o o CO cn o o Y— CD CD O) o o o o CD cn cn o o CD cn OJ o o o r- ^~ CM CM CM CM CO CM CM CoM C5M cn CM CM CM 5CM UJ % o o o O O O sUJ O O O O o O Si O O O O O O CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO ox 111 ffi c LU CQ CO m CQ m m CO CQ CQ CQ m CQ m UJ UJ m CQ m m CQ m CO CQ 5 UJ UJ oX X o CO § g 5 D (8 g g g g g o CO g g g 5 Q. 5 o O 3 O o z O o o 33 CO o 3o O O o g g n g o 0. X o o o o o o 6_[- o o szin o o z por t m © m o o o Dor t © o o X CO CM CM CM CM CM QX. CM CM CM CM CM X CO CM CM CM CM CM 16 . b LU jE o UJ P AN D LU z X UJ ,_ co ,_ o 1— le a le a UJ z le a o O O O O Q. o O O O o O O O O a 3 o o 3 o o o o o o Z Z LL Z cc z z z z z z z z z z z z or z z z z z z 5 5 EAT I OW E § § UE L I g g g g g g Q. X E o o 3o 3 u. E o o o 33o 0J o 3o o 3 Q CO CO CO CO CgO CO in Q(D CO CO CO CO CO CO co' Q CO CO CO CO CO gCO IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 56 Table 6.2c Results of Scenario 12A (second continuation) _l o CO o m cn in h- CM en CO tn CO CO CO CO CO H m * CO _i ^_ CO CO CO m o m o o CO — CO CO CO o I— o en CO CO O CM T— CM CM T CO " o .o o o o o CO CO CM o in CO CO o CO tn m in m 8. 2 in CO CO !••- 68 % 69 % 56 % 66 % 69 % m 70 % o o © o o Fuel s Tota l Agri - cultur e i CO m o in CO ca ge g? 3^p^ g? g? o CM CO T- o re o r\( 'co itia l o O CO CO CM CO in CO CO e\\ CM CM CD t_ CD \^ « CO 00 00 CO CD o o o o X OC T> >. t- O o o o o o CM 00 CO in CO CO CO O o 65 % 69 % 69 % 64 % 1.0 0 65 % 67 % o o o o o CH P o o o o ectric i ansp a LU T5 CO o en CO CO m o o in CM 00 CO re g? g? str y ssi l g? gs g? CO CO CO 05 03 CO CO CO CM CM •n CM CO o CO CO o © o o o i CM LL "* b Ind u _ _ V— O in o m O m o in o m © in o m o in o w (0 cn cn o o T— cn cn o o as en en o o CD cn cn o o o o CD cn cn o o © CD cn cn o o o o >• r- T— CM CM CM CM > CM CM CM 5CM CM CM CM CM *~ O O O O O O O o o O O O o O o o O O CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO ffi c ffi c ffi c LU CO CO CO CO CO m LU CO CO CO CO CO m m CO CO m m m CO g g g g CO g 5 g 5 CO 5 g g g CO E CO o o CD o O O o O O CD 3 3 g 3 3 3 3 z CD 3 3 g O o z o in o o SZ t- o o o ICI E aor t in o o o o © 1 aor t in o o o o © XQ_ CO CM CM CM CM CM LL X CD CM CM CM CM CM X CO CM CM CM CM CM T— f— a LU UJ —f LL LU P— UJ LU X LU CO < o IO N lea r lea r o lea r o O O O CO o O O O HI o O O O O 3 o o o 3 o o o 3 o o LU Z z z z z Z Z LU Z z z z z z z CO Z Z z z z Z z z o 5 5 5 5 5 ESI [ g o 5 g g 5 DC O zLU G) o o o o o E o o o E o o o o o 3 3 03 3 3 3 —J Q CO CO CO CO CO CO Q CO CO CO CO CO CO D CO CO CO CO CO CO IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 57 Table 6.3a Results of Scenario IB o o ro 3 o CO CO in CO CD m in in in m CO •a E c 3 0) y— o CM en co as CO CO CO CO en r— CO CO *•• in O O tn CO CO 05 05 en co CM art s 00 CO CO in CM • o in CM .fl- CO CO CO irt in en co co •* in in m o CD '- Imp c CO in in in in tn p N <; * * * co in i- co co co O T CO CM ^ * t T U- 1 1 1 1 1 X 1111° tn o CM CM CM CM CM T— CO T»- Tj- ^ ^" TJ- T 3 "*. t t "^ * t tj i 1 1 1 1 1 Ro R o _+_ Hydr o o* d d o* d d ex UJ CO CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO N 01 O co co o in o duct s jorts r- i- CM o o CO* r-* i-* T-" T-" CM CE UJ CO CO CO Q o co g CO CO CO 3 O O O O O O O O O O _J o CM CM •a 18 o 1E 8| d o* d d d d o 0-%-: ii ^ CO tn CD 'to S CO CO CO in CM N TJ CO CO CO in CM CM o CM [^ in en co 1- •* co o 3 CM CM CM o T- T- T- T- CM o Q. CM CM CM CM CM r^ d d d © d E g CD "So 00 o es O O o . en f- © T3 CD O © in p in CM n- i- in in CD o o o o CD T- CO CO CO CO m y- •<- r- E o m in in in IT. O o CM ^* Q ^_ o m o in o in o in o in o in o in o m o m en en o o T- T- CO en en o o cn en o o o o CD en en o o o o CSOIOOT-T- i- CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM 050)0000 i- CM CM CM CM of o X X X X X I X X X I I X o X X X X X X O CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD it CD CD CD CD CD CD UJ X X X X X X UJ X X X X X X UJ X X X X X X CO X X X X X X 10 X X X X X X X X X X X X ca CD CD CD CD CD CD ca CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD X X X X X X X X I X X X CD X X X X X X fe. o in © © p © © in o © o o o 5.-S inqqooq CO CO CO* CO* CO* CO CO CO CO CO CO Q.; UJ co x s CO* CO CO* CO* CO* CO UJ 1 J All : uj F- CO ca 58 Table 6.3b Results of Scenario IB (first continuation) CD 05 vO - o CM •«a- O O se s S? 1 CM CO CO r^ CO CO CO i— 05 CO CM in in • U5 CD o o tn o CO cn CO o O co in in in CO o o o o CO 0. m CO CO CO in in CO CO CO CO CD CO CO CO CM CO CO en CO O CO CM CO CO 05 ivere d ( P S T o o o o o CO 78 . E5O5 Hea t L c 110. 4 J Hydr o rOTA L CD m Q ^. CO o en o o © CO 05 o o o O o o m 93 . 18 8 18 7 CO o CH P Ne w Hea t 135. 4 Tota l 102 . ELE C 0. O5 CO eo CO CM o CO en 1. 2 79 5 63 6 CM CO 81 7 83 4 41 2 41 3 CM ene w O ENE W oc tr CO 1- CO O o CO o o o o o o CM CO CO CO o r CM 4. 6 CM o o 90. 2 Ne w CO oss i OLI D HO B tn CO CD >. o o CO CO CO CM CO CO CO 60 0 60 0 60 0 60 0 : CO CO CM OI L ? oss i xisti n 180 0 180 0 CH P dust t LA. UJ £ 009 ; ooe ; ^_ o o CO a. en CO CM CO 05 o o in CO in m cn in (0 cn o CO 00 O5 CO iclea r !50 0 m !50 0 X m Ind . r~ CSMi o 2 Z ^_ ,_ o m o in o in o in o in o in u o in o in o m ca 05 cn o o T- (0 05 en o o IT— CO 05 cn o o T— CD cn 05 o o o o CD 05 cn o o o o CD 05 en o o o o >- CM CM CM CM tn >- y— CM CM CM CM >- CM CM CM CM UJ £ UJ X X X X X X X X I X X X X X X X X X X ffi i ffi i ) S 3 LU C CD CD CD CD CD a o CD CD CD o CD CD • • • CD CD CD CD CD o UJ X X X X X i LJJ X X I X X X LU X X X X X X CO X X X X X X 1 HOB S CO X X X X X X SCHEM E CO I X X X X X CD CD CD CD CD CD CD UJ CO CD CD CD CD CD CD CO CD CD CD CD CD CD CD X X X X X X Z CD X X X I X I o CD X X X X I X O a. X Cfl o o o o o o in o o o o O w o o o o m o o por t o o z z Q. Q. CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CD CO X CO CO CD CO CO CD b ffi o UJ 0. UJ z X UJ CO o ,_ le a le a le a s LU X X X X X X X X X I X X o X X X X X X o u CD CD CD CD CD CD a. o CD CD CD CD CD CD a. o CD CD CD CD CD CD 2 X X X X X X z z X X X I X X LL 2 X X X X X X HI _J 11 1 UJ UJ o Q Q Q Q a Q 3 Q Q Q Q Q a Q Q o Q a Q LL CD o o o O O o em . o o o o O o CD O o o o O O Q 5 5 5 5 iri Q 5 5 5 5 s S (0 Q 5 5 2 5 5 IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWl CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 59 Table 6.3c Results of Scenario IB (second continuation) _J o CO CO h- CM CO cn CO o CO CO m in CO _l CO CO CM © CO CO o ts. en CO o - CO CO m CO CO CO I- o CO ^ CD in CO CM P o o o O o vP o CO CO O CM co CM CO CM CM el s ita l cn pf\ .li - tur e o co VJ 3 CO in in in in I CO cn © m cn CO CD o CO v— o CO o # itia l CO * in o CO CO CD CO CO CM T CM CO CD i_ CO ~ *~ X CO CO CO CO CO CD o o o o O EC T3 m CO CO o © o o o 8 cn 0. 0 m 69 % 71 % 73 % 74 % 73 % o o o o o CH P 73 % T— o o o o o Electricit y rranspor t i >, CD CO cn 1— CM T- S? ea t .0 0 .6 7 .5 4 .4 9 USt l .7 6 CO CO CO CO co DSS I * r- i.6 1 1 CM r^ CO CO C£O CO 5 X LL co eo o o o o o In d O in o in o in © in o in o m o in o in o in co cn cn o o ca cn cn o o en cn 0) © o CD cn cn o o CD cn en o o CD cn en o CM CM CoM CoM CM CM CoM oCM oCM CM CoM oCM > > X X X X X I X X X X I I X X X X X X CO CO CO CD CO CO CO CO COCO CO CO E CO CD CD CO CD CD LU X X X X X X in X X X X X I LU X X X X X X CO X X X X I X CO X X X X X X CO I X X X X X ra CO CD CD CD CO ra CD CD CD CO CD CD cn CO CO CD CD CO CD a *-* fn CO X X X X X I CO X X X X X X (3 X X I X I I IO N NC Y sz © © xz in o o ICI E in o o o in o o o o oor t o o por t o IVA T aor t o X CO CO CO CO CO CD LL X CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO UJ p? LL UJ p: a. UJ p^ UJ CLUO — 1 j_ z i— ra ra o CO .2 I X X X X X g CD X X X I I X CD X X X X X X CO o O r~ o CO CO CO CD CO CO o CD CD CD CO CD CD UJ 3 CD CO CO CD CD CD 3 CC UJ X X X X X I UJ 23 X X X I I X CO X X I X X X a CO z Q UJ cf Q Q Q a a a o c o Q o Q Q Q a a a Q a CC o o LU CD o O O O O o CD o o O o o o 1 O o o o o o N Q 5 5 cd a 2 5 5 5 O) Q 5 5 5 IC CONSULT- ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 60 Table 6.4a Results of Scenario 5B o ato r I jrit y 2? o CO in CO CO CO CO CD di e CO W T3 E C 3 en CO CM CO o CO CO CO co cn CO CO (O CO CO _c O •"*" * O IV . _ ,_ CO T— CO CO CO cn o in Kt S CO CO CO CO CO in co to cn CO CO CO o> 0) CO CO cn CM (0 cn o CM o CO CO CD T— CM CM T— To t Imp c tr < o CM CO CO co CO Ul CO CD CO CO o i CO o o o o O 2 1 CO f^ LL. CO o o o UU o o o o *~ X I I I I 1 X 1 1 1 1 1 z N T o O CO o & -9 3 o o o o o a I I I I 1 Ro R Hydr o HYDR O Product s N_ M- CO oo CM o CM * CM & o 3. 3 **• **• Ti- oduct s CH P CO ENE W xport s co DC a. Ul tn CO CO (^ 'en CO CO CO cn in 3 o in o o o O o to 5 o o o o o es —J CM CM CM CM CM Q. in O CD o o o o o o U. z o Pro c E CO 02 2 _ CO CM CO in CO cn 13 1 16 1 19 8 19 6 19 6 22 3 23 9 42 3 20 8 21 7 GA S o o o o o Fossi l Crud e Import s Existin g o CD CO _, 07 CO o o o o o © m CO CO •o CD o o o o CD o o cn o o CO 3 o CO CO 6 CO tn in tn o co N 25 . 45 . 45 . 45 . 45 . o Nuc I Dom ^ o in o m o m o m o m o m o in o to o m v3 CO CD en o o to cn cn o o CO en CD o o CJ) CD cn o o o o CD cn cn o o o o CD cn cn o o o •>— CM CM CM CM •»- »~ CM CM CM CM >- CM CM CM 5CM 5r . X X X X X X X X X X I X I X X X X I CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD a CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD co UJ I X X X X X UJ I X I X I X UJ X X X X X I Q CO X X X X X X CO X X I X X X CO X X X X X X to CD CD CD CD CD CD $ CD CD CD CD CD CD to CD CD CD CD CD CD CtnJ X X X X X X CD I I X X X X CD X X X X X X ^_ (PJ ) in o o o o in o o o por t o 3or t o o o tn o o o o X CO CM CM CM CM CM CO CM CM CM CM CM t; x co CM CM CM CM CM O UJ UJ w tr r UJ JB i CO (P J zUJ CD aj a 5 CO o 5 5 5 O "c3 5 5 5 5 3 o o o o 3 o O O o o o — => o O o o O cn Z _i _i _i _i _oJ _ol CD z _J _i _j _J _i _i _i _1 _i _J -oJ _i s UJ c Q a a Q a Q Q Q Q Q a a a Q D Q a a PRI I OI L CD O O O CD O ui E O O O o o o o o o o o . CD o o o Q 2 5 5 s CM Q 5 5 5 5 CO O 5 5 5 S IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 61 Table 6.4b Results of Scenario 5B (first continuation) o $ w 3TA L CM {31 0 162 6 {52 1 138 7 {48 9 | )sse s CM It to T— CD o CO en CM CO o :a l O o o o o (CO0 in in m in CO o o o CM CD CD CO CD in in CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO •r- CO CO CO O O O O CO CO "3- CO CO CO in ivere d ( P S 1 © o 69 . 87 . en Hea t L c 110. 4 J Hydr o fOTA L CD m 1— Q ^. en CO © o O o o o o o © 10 0 19 6 85 . 93 . 29 4 CH P Ne w 5 Hea t Tota l 135. 4 107 . ELE C IT" Q. in CO Oi to UJ CD in CO CO co <* o CO CM CO in CO CD T- o 00 CO UJ ••" CD CM CO CO EC £C CO Q (V. (V. CQ CM CM CO CO CO CO CO ,_ CM CM CM CD _J O CO in CO CO o o o o o o o CM o © O in CO CO en LU o X CO 008 I Q_ © o CO 00 CO in CO CO 00 ossi l 00 CO OI L (istin g 180 0 180 0 180 0 180 0 180 0 CO X Justr y LU UJ Q o o o o o o CO _ 0. 00 ea r en en co CM eo in in m in CO CO CO en Ind . o Qm CM CM CM CM CM en CO h- 00 o I c CM CM CM CO CD o CO £ CM CM CM CM Z o z o in O in o in o in o in o in ,_ o in o in O in ra en en O o Q. 03 en en o o (0 en en o o CD en en O o o o CD en en o o o o CD en en o o © o ^" T— CM CM CM CM CO ^* CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM UJ UzJ 0. X X X X X X X t i X X X X I X ^^ • X X X X I X 5 CO ffi ( CD CD CD CD CD CD ffi ( CD CDCD CD CDCD CD CD CD CD CD CD o 111 UJ X X X X X X C/3 UJ X X X X X X UJ X X I X X X CO CO UJ L_ HEM E oX o CO X X X X X X CO X I X X I I U CO X X X I X X ro CD CD CD CD CD CD CO CD CD CD CD CD CD CO CD CD CD CD CD CD 0. CD X X X X X X < CD X X X X X X 03 CD X X X X X X u 0- oX C5 t; X Q c o in o © o © o o x:in o o o o o Z o in o O © o O z CO CM CM CM CM CM X CO CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO CO CO CO UDJ. UnJ ?> a. UJ cc z X UJ ,_ o ,_ s HO I GE N o ucle a IG H ucle a IG H IG H IG H IG H lucle a g o o o g O IPUT ! O o o O o O EC CC -J _J _J u. X X X X I X UJ z z z UJ < o Q Q Q Q D E O o o Q Q Q UJ Q Q Q Q Q n em . O O LL O CD o O CD O o o o O o O O Q o2 2 2 2 2o 2 in D 2 2 2 2 2 2 CO Q o2 o2 2 o2 2 IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 62 Table 6.4c Results of Scenario 5B (second continuation) _J o CO 00 in 1— CM 00 en CO O CO CO TJ- m in CO _l CO CO CJ o CO CO O en CO o CO CO in CD CO CO o CO r^ ^» CO m w CM o o o o © CO e o CO 00 CM CO CM co CM CM 6^ o —J. ri - iel s ita l (ft m tur e o CO CO VI U/ in in in u CO CO cn u. m m CO CO h- ^~ o o o o o < cu l o 0 o 0 1 to CO o •<* in en CO ffl .2 o CO o CO o CO CO CO •^ CM •^ O CVJ CM CO CO ^}- in 'co c o C73 CO fs. CO CO CD CD 'r~ X CO CO CO CO CO CO CO o o o o QC 73 *~ o 'o o s 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 o 0. 0 0. 0 o 61 % 69 % 62 % 64 % 64 % 65 % 0.9 5 0.7 6 0.5 8 0.4 9 0.4 4 CH P T— CD anspor t LU H CD CO CM o CO •<* ra * * en ssi l itric t CO CO CD CO CO CO CO CO o in CM o CO CO CO CO CO CO © o © o © Q LL Ind i O in o in © in o in o m © m o in o m o m 03 CD en o o ca en en o o (0 en en o o CD o CO o o o CD CO o o o o CD en o o o o CM CM CM 5CM >- T~ CM CM CM CM **" CM CM CM CM X X X X X X X I X X X X X X X X I X CD ffi i CD CD CD CD o s CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD UJ X X X X I X LU X X X X X X UJ X X X X X X in X X X X X X CO X X X X X X CO X X X X X I (0 <0 CO CD CD CD CD CD (3 *-* fn CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD X X X X X X o CD X X I I X X CD X X X X X X IO N 2, zLU o sz in o o o o © JC o o SL in o H m o o o o IVA T o o o o Q. o 5 Q_ X p* CO CM CM CM CJ CM LL QX_ CO CM CM CM CM CM cc X p* CO CM CM CM CM CM UJ UJ U, UJ UJ LU X LU CO o o TIA L clea r 5 ? 5 5 5 5 SIO N clea r clea r 5 5 Z 3 O o o o o o cc 3 O o O O o o LU 3 o o o o o O UJ Z _i _l _1 _l _i UJ z _i _l _i _l _l _i CO z _i _i _l _J _J _i o CO z o LU Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q ff o D UJ o Q Q a. CD O o o o o O em . o o O o o o CD O o o o O O N D 5 5 2 2 ocd Q 2 2 en Q 5 5 IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 63 Table 6.5a Results of Scenario 9B >, o 13 S? .5 u tn o o u T3 v. CO CO CO CO CO CD CO c •a E c O5 05 05 in in ID CO CO «*• CO c •<* •<«• C o CO CO CO O U) O5 •* CO CO CM CM CO r\ CO CO o CO o o a l 00 in CO CO o CO CM in CO 35 CO CO O5 CM CO T— o JI co •<* CD Si |2 CM H Imp c CC LU 30 o o o o o o CO in tn in in tn 2 O CM CM CM CM CM _J LL CM CM CM CM CM •a O o O O O O o X 1 1 1 1 1 ;* 1. 1 1 1 1 1 z o CO CM CM CM CM CM o oc uct s T O5 05 O5 05 05 1 1 1 1 1 1 o o o o o o O x" HY D cc Pro d CO CM CM CM CM O5 CO in O5 05 O) O5 cvi 3. 3 14 8 CO CO CO CH P oduct s ENE W xport s m EC CL LU CO J2 Q 00 CO CO 05 m o o in o O O O O '55 o o o o o o CO CM CM CM CM CM o in O 0) o o o o CM CM LL d Im p z CO m CO ra co in 00 o r- 7. 2 13 6 17 0 19 8 19 8 25 1 20 3 24 0 27 0 22 5 22 6 CO 42 3 21 2 co GA S Foss i """ Crud i Existi r Impor i o CD 00 o o _j CO in o o o o o o o o o es t o o le a CO £ CO in n o o o O m o tn in m u CD o o o o o 45 , O o CM 45 , 3 Q H ,_ o in o in o w o tn o m o tn u. O tn o in o in CO O5 en o o •y— CO O5 O5 o o CO 05 O5 o o 05 CD O5 O5 o o O CD 05 05 o o CD O5 O5 o o o >- *— CM CM CM CoM >- CM CM CoM CoM >- CM CM 5CM CM 5? X X X X X X X X I X X X X X X X X I CD* £ CD CD CD CD CD CD £ CD CD CD CD CD CD jg CD CD CD CD CD CD (5 LU X X I I X X LU X X X X X X UJ X X X X X X Q CO X X X I X X CO X X X X I X CO X X X X X X co CDCD CD CD CD CD CO CD CDa CD CD CD CO CD CD CD CD CD CD CD I X X X X X CD X X i X X X CD I X X X X X (PJ ) ^: o sz JZ m o o o o aor t in o o o o o sor t tn o o o o o CO CM CM CM CM CM X ;> CO CM CM CM CM CM X CO CM CM CM CM CM Expor t UJ > 111 RG Y _^ I Al l lea r lea r lea r EN E i (P J o O O O O c O o O O o O O o O o o 3 o o o o o CC Z z z z z z z 0 Z z z z z z z cc Z z z z z z z 5 oS _J ID CC Q Q Q Q o D Q a a Q D a I • | E Q Q Q Q Q Q E O O O O E O O 111 O O O O CD o o o CD o o o o CD o o Q 2 2 2 2 2 2 c\i Q 5 2 2 2 2 2 CO Q 5 2 2 2 2 2 IG CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 64 Table 6.5b Results of Scenario 9B (first continuation) _l CO 3 c?CO CO SO S * 1^ CM o CO CM CO in U) [0 05 CD R in CO CO CO CO CO O CM CO CD a l o o o CO cn CM CO o o o o o o o CO in in in m I- CO CO CO CO CO m m CO CO XI CO CO CO CD CO CM CO o to O o CO CM CO in CO cn CO P S 1 CD CD o o o o CD CO" en 110. 4 J m Hydr o TOTA L I Delivere d | ,,. O5 CO o © © o o O o o o tn CO tn CO 15 0 43 1 29 4 CH P CO CO Ne w Hea t Tota l 107 , cn 101 . ELE C •»— o CO CM CO m CO CO 79 9 57 4 34 3 79 5 78 2 34 5 •"— CM CO CH P •* Rene w RENE W CO $ 5 o o o o o o 9 CD CO CM m CM CM CM CM CO CO o CD CM © o O 00 m o CO CO o •*" O in CO CO u_ Z cn CO CM SO L X o o o o O o 0. O o CO tin g _i (ft m co in in M O5 "co CQO CO CO CO CO CO O CO lv CO CM X n CO CO CO Fossi l Exis i O o o © © o o Q. CO CO CD ea r cn cn CM w in CO CM CO Ind . o in cn tn 00 O X CM o CM CM CO •"— •*" _ CM CD o o CO ^~ CM CM CM CM Z z o in o in © in =7 o in o tn o tn ,_ o tn O tn o tn ca cn cn o o T"* CD cn cn o o to O5 cn o o CD cn o o o CD cn cn o o CD cn o o o cn o ^^ o eT—n o •""" CM CM CM CM tn CM CM C5M CM >" CM CM CM CM m q> LU 0- 3 X X X X X X X2 X X X X X X ^"* Q X X X X X X ffi ( CD CD CD CD CD CD o ffi ( CDCDCD CD CDCD £ o CD CD CD CD CD w LU X X X X X X W LU I X X X X X LU X X X X X X UJ m OX HEME S u CO X X X X X X CO X X X X X X o CO X X X X X X la CD CD CD CD CDCD Q ca CDCDCD CD CDCD yJ4 to CD CD CD CD CD CD £L fn X X X X X X CD X X X X X I o CD X X X X X X o a. X a O tn o © o o x: © © 3or t o sor t in o o o o o sor t tn o o o X CO CM CM CM CM CM X CM CM CM CM CM X CM CM CM CM CM 16 . 16 . Fz- o PAN D UJ LU 111 £* cc z X UJ ,_ ,_ o 2 O GE N PUT ! ucle a O O O O o o ucle a O o o o o o ucle a O o o o O o CE Z Z LU Z Z UJ z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z 3 EL I d Q Q Q Q Q Q d Q Q Q Q Q LU c Q Q Q Q Q Q oUs CD o o o o o O CD o o O o o O I CD o O o O o O Q 2 5 5 5 5 5 in Q 5 5 5 CO D 5 5 s IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 65 Table 6.5c Results of Scenario 9B (second continuation) _l o CO CO in CM CO O3 CO OtrCD CO m in w _l TJ CO CO CM O CO 00 o en CO © CO CO in CO CO CO o CO CO in CO CM P o © o © © 3 00 © CM 00 CM CO CM CM s^ 2? 2? >s .1 CO el s tta l tur e CO •O \Ji 3 CO "<*• in in * (\UO co T LL m m <0 N r- " o o © o o CO < cu l CO 03 o in O3 co CD vP o O 00 o CO o 2? tia l CO CO CO •^ CM •^ CM CO CO CO c o 03 CO CD CO I— o CO CO 00 CO CO 0I0n CD CD O r^ I ••" o o o o CD *~ tr •D >, c o o © o O © o OL S? s? s?5? S? a in CO CO O3 to O3 in •1 O X CD LO CO 8 o o o o o o o CO CO CO CD CO CO c o o © o o LCUD CO CO CM o> CO CO CO CO 00 R m 1.0 0 44 % 44 % 44 % 26. 6 CO CO 44 % Hea t o o Fossi l o o o Distric t Industr y k. o o in © in o o in JO o u. © s o 8 CO § s CcDo 0O3 O3 o© O CD O3 O3 CD CD O3 T— o o o o o o o o CM CM CM 5CM CM CM CM CM > CM CM CM C5M X X X X X X I X X X X X X I X X X X SE CD CD CD CDCD CD CD CD CD CDCDCD £ CD CD CD CD CD CD LU I X X X X X LU X X X X X X UJ X X I X X X I X X X X X CO X X X X X X 10 X X X X I X CO CD CD CD CD CD CD E CO CD CD CD CD CDCD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD X X X X X X CD X X X X X X CD X X I X X X IO N NC Y •c UJ •c h- o sztn © o o © o O o szin o o o o o > o in o o o o © nX CM CM CM CM CM u. CO CM CM CM CM CM QX. CO CM CM CM CM CM LU 16 . UJ a. UJ UJ LL X UJ CUOJ jVJ . 1 zo le a lea i lea i g o z o O O O O O O CO o O O o O O O UJ o O O o O o O UJ Z3 z z z z UJ Z3 z z z z z z CO Z3 z z z z z Q z z D z CO z Q UJ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Z d a Q a a Q a E 8 LU 1 1 t O O em . CD CD O O O O O O O o O o O o o o O O a. Q 2 2 2 5 2 CO Q 2 2 5 2 D 2 2 5 2 2 IC CONSULT- ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHLVAIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 66 Table 6.6a Results of Scenario IC .2"O 0 0 0 o §3 CO CO cn I; to dic a ecu i to to CO - T3 E c 3 05 fs» CO CO to CO cto CO ^^ CO CM to 05 "Eo CO CO to to to O _J ^. 00 CO CM to CO 1O cn cn © CO to in >rt s CO CO CM CO CO CO CO CO 55 CO CM CO CO to CO CO to to CO cti o To t TO T CD Imp c DC < © CM to to LU o to CO rj- O TCO to to to to to 2 CO *" d CM to U- I I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 z X o CO CM CM CM CM CM 2 uct s T 05 a: cc I I I I I 1 £a:o o O © O o HY D Pro d CO CM CM CM CM CM O •<* CO CO CM CO CO CO 05 CM Juct s lort s X T- T~ CM CO t-1 '~ *— CM CM ENE W o x- o EC olLU CO CO £ Q to 00 CO CO ^- CM © o o to © O O o O to o o o O © O CM CM CO CO CO T3 to O IQJ o o © O O O O3 LL o CO nl Im p z CD CO CO CM CO CO T3 CO O CM o CM CM o CM CO ort s ssi l •5 CM CO CM CO CM CM CM CM CM CO V\J to o o O O GA S o a CM o o O CM X """ CM LL E UJ o CD CO O O O o O _, (^ to T3 o to CO CO CO to CO m O O o lea i T— CO to to CO to 3 o o o o CO CO ^t 1" 45 . 45 . 45 . 6 25 . 45 . 3 6 Dom i Z ,_ o to o to O to o to o to o to o to o to o to CO CO CO 05 c0o5 CD cn o> o o CD cn cn o o CD cn 05 o o y— cn o o o cn o o o o cn o o o o >• CM CM 5CM CM >- CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM X X X X X X . I X X X X X X I I X X X • • HE o CDCD CDCDCD CD CD CD CD CD CD £ CDCDCDCDCD CD co LU X X I X I X LU X X X X X X UJ X X I X X X Q to X X X X X X CO I X X I X X CO X X X X X X CO CD CDCD CD CD CD CO CD CD CDCD CD CD to CD CD CD CD CD CD CD X X X X X X CD I X X X X X CD X X X X X X (PJ ] x: © szto © c? © © to o o o © o Dor t to o o o o sor t o to CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO co CO CO CO 16 . 16 . O UJ .3 i Expor t cc All : LU S. & lea r lea r I I I X X X z X X X X X X CO X X X X X X o CD CD CD CD CD CD C/5 o CD CD CD CD CD o CD CD CD CD CD CD LU a u c Z X X X X X I CD 2 i X X X X I 3 X X X X X X s & GC UJ E CO CO O E CO CO UJ a. to to to to to CD to to to to to Q LL LL LL LL LL LL CM CQD LL LL LL LL LL CO Q LL LL LL LL LL LL IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 67 n 4. POWER GENERATING CAPACITIES (MW) 8 | Dem. Nuclear Export Gas Effic. Year Nuclear Fossil Fossil CHP Hydro TOTAL I TWh Heat Existing New CHP New PS Total i FAST HIGH 16.5 HIGH HIGH 1990 2500 1800 0 795 0 106 0 5201 m FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 1995 2500 1800 0 818 0 106 400 5624 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2000 2500 600 0 836 0 106 801 4843 m FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2005 2500 600 0 640 99 106 801 4747 ra FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2010 2500 600 0 415 188 106 801 4610 1 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2015 2500 600 0 417 190 107 801 4614 8 8 5. FUEL INPUTS 1NTO CHP AND HOB SCHEMES (PJ) 8 I C/l Dem. Nuclear Export Gas Effic. Year TWh GAS OIL SOLIDS RENEW ELEC TOTAL i FAST HIGH 16.5 HIGH HIGH 1990 95 84 4.6 4 0 188 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 1995 53 43 2.4 3 0 102 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2000 70 46 1.3 6 0 123 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2005 88 47 1.5 9 0 146 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2010 110 38 0.9 13 0 162 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2015 127 34 0.9 17 0 178 6. HEAT FROM CHP AND HOB SCHEMES (PJ) Dem. Nuclear Export Gas Effic. Year CHP CHP HOB Renew Heat Heat Losses Losses TWh Non Ind. Industry dential culture Total Delivered (PJ) % tn FAST HIGH 16.5 HIGH HIGH 1990 32.9 11.1 90.2 1.2 135.4 110.4 25.0 18% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 1995 16.2 6.1 50.5 1.2 73.9 58.5 15.4 21% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2000 19.6 7.3 60.1 2.1 89.0 72.4 16.6 19% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2005 22.2 8.9 73.7 3.3 108.0 90.4 17.6 16% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2010 20.7 9.7 84.1 4.5 119.0 101.9 17.1 14% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2015 22.9 10.7 91.2 5.9 130.6 114.8 15.9 12% g n n 7. RESIDENTIAL HEAT (PJ) o en Dem. Nuclear Export Gas Effic. Year District TWh Heat Electricity Gas Fuels Solids TOTAL I FAST HIGH 16.5 HIGH HIGH 1990 26.6 0.0 3.9 8.2 23.3 62.0 m FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 1995 16.6 0.0 3.0 4.8 13.8 38.3 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2000 16.9 0.0 7.4 5.2 15.2 44.7 3. m FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2005 16.1 0.0 12.5 5.3 16.0 49.8 7> FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2010 17.2 0.0 14.9 5.2 16.3 53.5 o FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2015 18.1 0.0 17.6 5.2 16.8 57.7 1 8 8. CONVERSION EFFICIENCY (%) 8 I en Dem. Nuclear Export Gas Effic. Year a. a TWh Fossil CHP HOB Total FAST HIGH 16.5 HIGH HIGH 1990 37% 69% 82% 56% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 1995 37% 71% 82% 57% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2000 37% 73% 83% 59% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2005 37% 75% 83% 62% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2010 37% 73% 84% 63% FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2015 37% 74% 85% 65% c 9. END USE CONSERVATION Dem. Nuclear Export Gas Effic. Year Resi- Agri- TWh Industry Transport dential culture TOTAL rn FAST HIGH 16.5 HIGH HIGH 1990 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 71 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 1995 0.76 0.95 0.98 0.78 0.87 a FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2000 0.67 0.76 0.81 0.48 0.79 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2005 0.61 0.58 0.70 0.44 0.73 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2010 0.54 0.49 0.63 0.40 0.67 FAST HIGH 6.0 HIGH HIGH 2015 0.49 0.44 0.60 0.37 0.50 IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 70 7. SCENARIO INDICATORS AND ASSESSMENT Scenario indicators and assessment information for the Slow Reforms-Scenario and the Fast Reforms-Scenario are presented in Tables 7.1 to 7.4. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - C0W1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 71 Table 7.1 Indicators for Slow Reforms-Scenarios (2A, 4A, 6A, 8A, 10A, 12A) SCENARIO DESCRIPTION INDICATORS SLOW REFORMS Cost Effectiveness1" Supply Security(2) Environmental Compatibility <3)(106t) Code | Electricity Iixports | Gasification | Efficiency (10»USD) SO; NO, CO2 High Nuclear n 2A High High Basic 14.1 60 3.7 2.7 0.6 n o 4A High Low Basic 14.1 59 4.5 2.7 0.6 Low Nuclear 6A Low Higli Basic 14.0 68 3.8 2.7 0.6 8A Low Low Basic 14.1 68 4.5 2.8 0.7 I W No Nuclear 10A Low High Basic 14.5 85 4.2 3.0 0.7 cn 12A Low Low Basic 14.5 85 5.3 3.1 0.8 I '" NPV of accumulated total system cost during 1990-2015 o B) Maximum share of oil and gas net imports on the GIC during 1995 - 2015 8 (!) Accumulated emissions during 1990 - 2015 n o § Table 7.2 Assessment for Slow Reforms-Scenarios (2A, 4A, 6A, 8A, 10A, 12A) SCENARIO DESCRIPTION ASSESSMENT Priority (4> SLOW REFORMS Cost Effectiveness"' Supply Security(2) Environmental Exports Compatibility<3> Code | Electricity Exports | Gasification | Efficiency (10'USD) (I06t) High Nuclear r 2A Higli High Basic + 4+ + - 2 c 4A High Low Basic 3 Lmv Nuclear 6A Low High Basic 2 : * 8A Low Low Basic 2 No Nuclear 10A Low High Basic 0 - 3 12A Low Low Basic 0 3 '" NPV of accumulated total system cost during 1990 - 2015 m Maximum share of oil and gas net imports on the GIC during 1995 - 2015 0! Accumulated cmissins during 1990 - 2015 <4> 1 = high, 2 = medium, 3 = low Table 7.3 Indicators for Fast Reforms-Scenarios (IC, 3C, SC, 7C, 9C, 11C) SCENARIO DESCRIPTION INDICATORS FAST REFORMS Cost Effectiveness'1' Supply Security(2) Environmental Compatibility (3)(106t) Code | Electricity Exports | Gasification | Efficiency (10'USD) % SO2 NO, ICO, High Nuclear 1C High High High 14.9 59 3.6 2.6 0.6 3C High Low High 14.9 57 4.3 2.6 0.0 n Z.0H' Nuclear n 5C Low High High 14.6 67 3.7 2.6 0.6 o 7C Low Low High 14.8 64 4.6 2.7 0.-J | Nuclear 9C Low High High 15.6 85 4.1 2.9 0.7 11C Low Low High 15.3 85 5.3 3.0 0.8 m 01NPV of accumulated total system cost during '990 - 2015 i2) Maximum share of oil and gas net imports on the GIC during 1995 - 2015 (" Accumulated emissions during 1990 - 2015 8 8 Table 7.4 Assessment for Fast Reforms-Scenarios (IC, 3C, SC, 7C, 9C, IIC) z S SCENARIO DESCRIPTION ASSESSMENT Priority w FAST REFORMS Cost Effectiveness(l) Supply Security(2) Environmental Exports Compatibility(3) Code | Electricity Exports | Gasification | Efficiency (10'USD) ( 106t) nigh Nuclear 1C High High High 0 2 3C High Low High 0 Z 0 3 Low Nuclear SC Low High High l 2 7C Low Low High 0 3 No Nuclear 9C Low High High - -- 0 * 3 11C Low Low High 3 (" NPV of accumulated total system cost during 1990 - 2015 10 Maximum share of oil and gas net imports on the GIC during 1995 - 2015 ll) Accumulated cmissins during 1990 - 2015 m I = high, 2 = medium, 3 = low IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 74 PARTB SPECIAL SUBSECTOR ISSUES B. 1 ELECTRICITY SVBSECTOR: PROPOSALS FOR A TECHNICAL A UDIT The purpose of this technical audit proposal is to make a complete review of the power system, assessing those areas that need priority attention, in order that system integrity and operating economies are properly maintained and/or increased to international standards of practice. It is suggested that the products of this exercise can be developed as a series of proposals to progressively replace technically inadequate plant and equipment, and make other improvements that achieve assigned economic efficiency objectives. It is expected that some of these proposals could become candidates for incorporation into an investment programme, which may be eligible for international loan projects. Results of specific investigations, such as the studies of Stone & Webster or Vattenfall/I VO, should form the basis for any ongoing effort on the tasks discussed in the following. TASK 1: LOAD RESEARCH Load research is the process of collecting load data for the analysis of dis-aggregated system loads. Dis-aggregation may be based on geographic area, consumer sectors, or end-use loads depending on need. Load research requires a metering system capable of recording loads at regular intervals by use of charts, magnetic tape or electronic recording mechanisms. Activities 1. Identify and define the needs and objectives of load research, as it relates to a technical audit. These may include requirements in the load management, forecasting, transmission and distribution areas. Identified data needs should be defined in terms of the specific loads or types of loads to be measured, the accuracy required, the frequency of data utilization and any unusual conditions or constraints to be considered. 2. Develop specifications for the systems and procedures necessary to gather and analyze the load research data. These should include specifications for hardware, software, manpower requirements, design of samples if necessary, and procedures for the verification, analysis and storage of data. TASK 2: LOAD MANAGEMENT Load management, more commonly known as demand-side management (DMS), includes any actions that have the objective of modifying the system load pattern in a beneficial manner. These actions may include peak load reduction, load shifting and energy conservation. The results of such actions include the reduction of energy costs and the deferral of capacity additions. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW! CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 77 Activities 1. Estimate marginal energy costs of electric supply for a five-year period of reasonably stable growth. 2. Identify the typical marginal tariff rates applicable to the various consumer classes. 3. Identify planned generation additions that could be deferred as a consequence of load reductions and the related changes in both capital and operating (fuel) costs. Note: Any threshold and constraints related to the identified planning changes must be clearly identified as well. 4. Review the consumer load data available with particular emphasis on data regarding typical hourly consumption and data related to the consumption by end-use categories (eg. lighting, heating, cooking). 5. Perform an objective evaluation of optional uses of electricity, by estimation of saturations of major appliance loads in the domestic and commercial sectors. This should include a review of available saturation data. Major appliance categories should include space and water heating, cooking, and other loads of significance. 6. As necessary develop specifications for improvements in the techniques and procedures for acquisition of saturation data by consumer class and category. 7. Estimate the proportion of system peak load and total energy sent out by major end-use category. 8. Develop a set of applicable load management strategies, considering the patterns of usage and system supply costs. The strategies to be considered should include, but not be limited to: a. Programmes for electricity tariff structures and rates; b. Consumer education and advisory services; c. Direct load control and voluntary load curtailment for individual large loads; d. Programmes to promote energy efficiency, in cooperation with electrical contractors, builders, and appliance distributors; e. Programmes with large self-generators; f. Programmes involving efficient street lighting standards; g. Programmes promoting the shifting of load from higher cost periods to lower cost periods; h. Programmes intended to eliminate wasteful use of electricity; i. Programmes promoting the improvement in efficiency of essential uses. Each of the above load (or demand-side) management strategies should include an estimate of the peak load and/or energy savings anticipated. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 78 9. Estimate the necessary resources required (i.e., manpower, expenses, investment, etc.) for each strategy developed. 10. Identify potential areas of technical interference between the strategies developed. 11. Conduct an analysis of the expected benefits and costs of the various strategies developed. The present worth (PW) of the benefits expected to be derived from each strategy in terms of reduced energy costs or reduced capacity requirements should be compared with similar PW of the costs of each strategy. The results should be stated as net present worth and benefit/cost ratios. 12. Establish procedures for the on-going monitoring of the effects of load management strategies following their implementation. The monitoring procedures may include load research, surveys, and other means to measure or estimate the impact of the strategies. Each procedure should include a description of the technique utilteed, the resources required, and the methodology to analyze the results. TASK 3: SHORT- AND MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING Short-term forecasting deals with the forecast demand for electricity on an hourly basis. Typically this is a forecast of the hourly load curve for a period of 24 to 48 hours. This forecast is required by "system control" for the commitment and economic dispatch of available generation. Medium-term forecasts typically cover a period of one to two years on a monthly basis, and are essential for generation and transmission maintenance planning and fuel inventory purposes. In modern Energy Management Systems (EMS) for System Control, forecast models are applied as standard software packages. Activities 1. Review existing activities and procedures. This review should include the following: • How is the data acquired? • Who performs the forecast? • How are the results used? • How do the forecasts compare to actual results? • What constraints exist in preparing the forecast? 2. As required, develop unproved forecasting methodologies. The improvements should address the following: • Data management; • Forecasting techniques; • Forecasting procedure. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 79 3. Specify any hardware, software or other resources required to implement the revised methodology. NOTE: Implicit in this level of forecasting is the requirement to take account of seasonal factors and weather sensitive components of demand; the latter being an input from Load Research. TASK 4: LONG-TERM FORECASTING Accurate long-term forecasting is essential if the most economic plant investment decisions are to be made. Such forecasts typically cover a period of 10 to 20 years, and usually comprise an envelope according to socio-economic activities as these relate to electricity supply. Several forecast methods should be used, including an assessment of electric demand within an overall energy framework. Activities 1. Validate the accuracy and reliability of the data utilized in long-term forecasting. 2. Evaluate the model(s) in current use with particular attention to data base requirements. 3. Examine the structure and performance of model(s) in current use with particular respect to stability and independence of explanatory variables and their coefficients. 4. Review performance of model(s) in providing reasonable and successful forecasts. 5. Recommend as necessary, improvements in the structure and organization of the forecasting group, and the methodology for carrying out ongoing forecasting activities. 6. Review state-of-the-art procedures in forecasting and identify appropriate forecasting methods and how these should be applied. TASK 5: TRANSMISSION OPERATION & MAINTENANCE The purpose of this task is to identify and minimize sources of unbilled energy due to technical losses resulting from operating modes with high voltage gradients and VAR circulation problems. Losses from the wheeling of power in interconnected operations should also be clearly identified. The task should be completed by identifying improvements to be gained in overall system integrity and efficiency by good maintenance planning and procedures. Activities 1. Review voltage and VAR control methods. Examine load flows for typical maximum, intermediate and low load scenarios under normal and outage cases. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 80 2. Review operational performance outage history patterns and compare with international utility standards. 3. Review bulk supply metering procedures and policies together with established accounting of loads and losses. 4. Assess the causes of losses resulting from review of design, planning and operations methods. 5. Review routine maintenance and planned outage scheduling and maintenance procedures to identify improvements that can be applied. 6. Review live line maintenance and pollution control practices on operational performance. 7. Assess costs and benefits relationships that may accrue from implementation of recommendations. 8. Evaluate work planning and utilization of resources (manpower and material) including construction management techniques. NOTE: Activities 5 and 6 are geared primarily to improving system integrity. TASK 6: TRANSMISSION DESIGN This task is intended to audit the standards and specifications applied in transmission design and planning that facilitate the saving of energy (reduction of losses). Within this scope are included any consequential construction issues as they may impact on energy savings and the inhibition of corona effects. Activities 1. Review system design and system plant standards with particular regard to normal and withstand current ratings, voltage gradients, static and dynamic operating limits, and service ambients. 2. Recommend, as appropriate, guidelines for developing a unified set of plant standards and procedures based on comparison of international utility practices that generally comply with IEC. 3. Review studies for reinforcement and development proposals with particular reference to economic operation and the containment of losses. 4. As appropriate, recommend guidelines for design and planning criteria and methods that provide the widest choice of equipment manufacture. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 81 5. Assess cost/benefit relationships that may accrue from implementation of recommendations. TASK 7: DISTRIBUTION OPERATION & MAINTENANCE The purpose of this task is to ideutify and minimize sources of unbilled energy due to losses resulting from operating modes and maintenance procedures. Activities 1. Review voltage and power factor control methods. Examine loads on feeders and transformers for typical maximum, intermediate and low load scenarios under normal and outage cases. 2. Review operational performance outage history pattern and causes, and make comparisons with typical international utility standards and fault reporting procedures. 3. Review metering procedures and policies together with established accounting of sales and losses. 4. Assess the causes of losses resulting from operational practices. 5. Review routine maintenance and planned outage scheduling and maintenance procedures to identify improvements that can be applied, including live line maintenance. 6. Examine load shedding policies and procedures. 7. Examine restoration of supply procedures, eg. auto-reclose, following interruptions. 8. Assess costs and benefits relationships that may accrue from implementation of recommendations. 9. Evaluate work planning and utilization of resources (manpower and material) including construction management techniques. TASK 8: DISTRIBUTION DESIGN This task is intended to audit the standards and specifications applied in distribution design and planning that facilitate the saving of energy (reduction of losses), including trade-offs in power factor correction. Within this scope also is included any consequential construction issues as they may impact on energy savings, eg. in making-off joints and final consumer entries and connections. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 82 Activities 1. Review system design and system plant standards with particular regard to ratings, operating limits, etc. in current use, eg. sizing of distributors, power factor correction equipment. 2. Recommend, as appropriate, guidelines for developing a unified set of plant standards and procedures based on comparison of typical utility practices, including installation practices. 3. Review studies for reinforcement and development proposals with particular reference to loss reductions and regulation improvements. 4. Recommend guidelines for design and planning criteria and methods that enable a wide choice and competition in the selection of plant and equipment. 5. Investigate non-technical (unauthorized) losses and other unbilled energy and their control. 6. Assess cost/benefit relationships that may accrue from implementation of recommendations. TASK 9: GENERATION OPERATION & MAINTENANCE The main concern in this task is to identify opportunities to improve operating efficiency of generating units and their availability. This is to achieve the overall objectives of reducing fuel costs and to optimize economic dispatch, including unit commitment and reserve capacity, in order to minimize the overall system operating cost per kWh of energy delivered to bulk supply points. In this respect it should be noted that modern Energy Management Systems (EMS) for system control are of little value without Steam Thermal Efficiency Programmes (STEP) being applied as routine. Activities 1. Collect and analyze plant operating data and scheduled/forced outage statistics, and review for completeness and relevance. 2. Evaluate start-up/shut-down policies, procedures and costs. Assess opportunities to reduce start-up/shut-down durations, eg. fast boiler cooling to enable shorter maintenance outages. 3. Evaluate operational philosophies regarding plant running modes, eg. two-shift working. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 83 4. Review instrumentation and control (I&C) systems and procedures to determine opportunities for improving fuel input monitoring, in particular, and the maintenance of operating efficiency. 5. Examine man/machine interface and review manual operating procedures and training methods, both for normal and emergency conditions, and particularly with reference to nuclear operations. 6. Examine impact of fuel quality, eg. calorific value, sulphur content, etc., on design (setpoint) operating performance, heat rate and incremental cost, together with maintenance issues. 7. Recommend means by which ongoing monitormg of fuel quality can effectively be carried out, together with other monitoring activities which impact on environmental issues and economic plant operations, eg. choice of fuel additives. 8. Review maintenance procedures to improve plant performance and availability, eg. feasibility of cleaning gas air heaters (GAH) while plant is in operation. 9. Assess the opportunities for improving management of maintenance by use of critical path techniques. 10. Evaluate costs and benefits resulting from application of any recommendations. TASK 10: GENERATION DESIGN This task is intended to examine existing generating plant and plant committed or planned to identify opportunities to improve performance by design changes. This should achieve loss reductions and improve merit order and, as appropriate, increase plant capacity and/or flexibility with due regard to environmental constraints. Activities 1. Review design philosophy and criteria applied in the choice of type and size of units and their means of control, including evaluation of auxiliary plant and arrangements for operational flexibility and the mitigation of non-economic costs arising from environmental constraints. 2. Examine plant modifications to increase capacity and/or flexibility in operations, eg. re-powering steam plants to combined cycle mode. 3. Review generating plant design issues as these impact on system and unit performance and operation, eg. VAR support and control, condenser performance constraints. 4. Evaluate costs and benefits of any recommendations. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 84 TASK 11: RISK ANALYSIS Risk analysis can assist in capacity planning by evaluating the trade-offs between financial risks and consumer electricity costs versus quality of service. These trade-offs result from the impacts of future demand uncertainty on generation planning. Risk analysis can aid decisions on whether to accept the extra costs of overplanning or the probable costs of short falls that may go with underpinning. Activities 1. Develop an appropriate and practical method for risk analysis assuming an uncertain development environment. The method must consider utility financing and operating (fuel) costs as well as the potential consumer costs related to loss of service or rationing of power supplies. 2. Identify the basic planning scenario to use for the risk analysis. This will include load forecast and probable variations, capacity expansion plan, capital costs and operating costs. 3. Identify the consumer costs associated with underplanning including energy costs and outage costs. Estimate the value of these costs if possible using generation costing studies and consumer surveys. 4. Identify the possible means to implement the analysis method based on the data available and existing planning models and studies. 5. Recommend a specific means to implement the risk analysis method including specifications for hardware, software and other necessary resources. TASK 12: ECONOMIC DISPATCH The economic operation of a power system requires the evaluation of production costs and incremental changes in those costs with the loading of generating units, and, ideally, should also take account of transmission losses on long-distance interconnections. This task has the objective of reviewing practices and procedures currently applied to achieve optimum unit commitment and economic dispatch. The results of this review should be evaluated against state-of-the-art energy management systems (EMS) and techniques for system control. Activities 1. Examine for accuracy and uniformity data used in the calculation of generating unit performance: heat rates, input/output curves, incremental fuel cost curves, start-up and shut-down costs, etc. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW! CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 85 2. Examine the dynamic response of generating plant to sudden load and frequency changes in order to evaluate immediate (synchronized) spinning reserve strategies, taking into account economic allocation of generation between units. 3. Identify and evaluate transmission losses for limiting system operating conditions and configurations, including the impact of real and reactive power scheduling and voltage control. 4. Examine methods of establishing merit order of units for initial commitment and their economic loading once committed. 5. Evaluate methods of monitoring production cost data collection and analysis to determine that economic operation is being maintained. 6. Review the results of activities 1 through 5 to identify whether and how improvements can be applied and the means (software, hardware, training, etc.) recommended for implementation. 7. Examine impact of load management or other load control measures on reducing spinning reserve or otherwise modifying spinning reserve and unit commitment policies (particularly at the time of system peak load). 8. Review system operating arrangements and procedures with particular regard to how these impact an economic dispatch discipline and minimisation of system losses. (Note: This interlocks with Task 8.) 9. Review load/frequency standards and how monitored, eg. area control error (ACE). Also a review of issues associated with SCADA upgrading to facilitate use of Energy Management Systems (EMS) including automatic generator control (AGC). Within this context load/frequency and voltage control issues should be addressed as relevant. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 86 B.2 LEGAL/INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES: ASSESSMENT OF THE LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK IN LITHUANIA 1. ENERGY LEGISLATION 1.1 LEG1SLA TIVE PROCESS Draft legislation may be submitted to the Seimas by the following groups: • President of State; • Members of Parliament; • the President of the Seimas; • Seimas standing committees; • the Government; • the Prosecutor General; • the Supreme Court; • political parties; • public organizations. If the draft does not conflict with Lithuania's Constitution of 1992 the draft can be registered and submitted to the appropriate standing committee and the Seimas Presidium for review. The draft is also distributed to all standing committees, Seimas fractions, Members of Parliament (MP) and the Government. The draft is then presented to the Seimas plenary session. Three readings are required for the passage of the law. Two-thirds of the MPs must be in attendance and a simple majority of deputies taking part in the session is required for the passage of a law. The Seimas can decide to submit a draft for public approval in the form of a referendum. 1.2 LEGISLATION 1.2.1 Law on State Enterprise of the Republic of Lithuania The Law on State Enterprise was adopted by the Parliament on September 25,1990. The law regulates the establishment, reorganization and liquidation as well as the management and financial and other commercial-economic activities of state enterprises. A state enterprise is an enterprise established by funds provided from the state. The law is not applicable to specific state enterprises. Enterprises operating networks of communication, electric power transmission, gas, oil, water supply, heating and sewage are considered specific state enterprises. The Lithuanian Parliament has decided that enterprises responsible for transmission of power, heat and natural gas should remain state owned monopolies. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - C0W1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 87 The specific state enterprises will be regulated according to the Law on Competition adopted by the Seimas in September 1992. According to this law a Price and Competition Department has been established at the Ministry of Economics, responsible for regulation of prices within the monopolistic companies. 1.2.2 Law on the Initial Privatisation of State Property The Law on the Initial Privatisation of State Property was adopted by the Parliament on February 28,1991, and regulates the process of privatisation of the state property. The process of privatisation is conducted by the Privatisation Commission and Privatisation Agencies, estab- lished throughout the country in accordance with this law and by decision of the local municipalities. The Central Privatisation Commission, established by decision of the Parliament upon recommendation of the Prime Minister coordinates the process of privatisation. The main function of Privatisation Agencies is to collect and process information on the property subject and provide free access to this information to interested persons. They also organize auctions and the subscription of shares. 1.2.3 Draft Energy Law Since 1991 a working group has prepared an Energy Law for Lithuania. Subsequently, the Danish Energy Agency/Ministry of Energy has assisted the group in the elaboration of the principles, the structure and the wording of the draft for a Lithuanian Energy Law. Now two versions of the draft Energy Law are available: one prepared by the Ministry of Energy and one prepared by the Energy Adviser to the Government of Lithuania. In cooperation with the World Bank Principal Council the PHARE Study Team has prepared comments on the drafts. On a workshop on May 19-20,1993, arranged as part of the PHARE Programme, National Energy Strategy, the draft was discussed by representatives of the team responsible for the preparation of the law: Ministry of Energy, World Bank, Danish Energy Agency and PHARE Programme, National Energy Strategy. Summarizing, the international institutions found the strategic goals recommendable as an initial approach to a national strategy for Lithuania. The structure and form, however, was still considered to be too centralists and rigid. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 88 2. ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURES 2.1 GOVERNMENTAL BODIES The Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania is the highest ranked body of state power in Lithuania (composed of 141 deputies elected in voting districts), The Parliament has under its legal competence appointed a number of standing committees on most sectors (for agriculture, budget and finance, municipalities, health, social care and labour, education, science and culture, foreign affairs, governmental and legal matters, civil rights and national majorities). The sector for energy is not covered by specific committees, thereby leaving the very necessary work on the draft energy bill in a vacuum. The energy sector is temporarily covered by the State Security Committee, The lack of a standing parliamentary committee could thus be amended by the establishment of an ad-hoc committee under this provision in order to further the work on the draft Energy Law. The Government is formed by the Prune Minister and all the sector ministers. The regulating bodies within the energy sector are the ministries and the municipalities. First of all the Ministry of Energy, but also the Ministry of Financial Affairs, the Ministry of Construction and Urbanistics, the Ministry of Transportation, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and the Environmental Protection Department are bvolved in the regulation of energy supply and consumption. Within the ministerial level there is no clear distinction between institutions responsible for policy making and institutions responsible for regulation. 2.1.1 Ministry of Energy The Ministry of Energy has got three departments - research and development, fuel supply, economic affairs - and special divisions for nuclear questions, book-keeping, control, legislation and personnel. Two of the departments (research and development and fuel supply) are each headed by a deputy minister. Within the research and development department there are four divisions: strategic planning, research, legal relations and international relations. 2.7.2 Energy Conservation Committee In 1991 the National Energy Efficiency Programme was adopted by the Government, and the State Energy Conservation Committee was established. The Committee reports directly to the Government and the secretariat - the Energy Conservation Directorate. The Committee is IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 89 comprised of 15 persons from ministries (Construction and Urbanistics, Energy, Industry and Trade) and other specialists. The Energy Conservation Directorate is responsible for implementation of the Energy Conservation Programme. The Committee and the Directorate do not have adequate resources and enforcement authority to perform their mandates adequately. 2.1.3 Other Ministries The Ministry of Financial Affairs has to approve the annual budget for the Ministry of Energy as well as changes in regulated tariffs. The Ministry of Financial Affairs is also involved in organizing and guaranteeing loans for the utilities. The Ministry of Construction and Urbanistics is responsible for building standards. Under this Ministry there are several research and design institutes. Responsibility for energy consumption of the sectors agriculture, transport, and industry and trade is with the ministries associated with these sectors, respectively. 2.1.4 Environmental Protection Department The Environmental Protection Department (EPD) is responsible for environmental protection administration. There are eight regional environmental protection agencies which each has jurisdiction over six to seven districts. The Law on the Environmental Protection Department passed the Seimas on July 13,1991. It has established the EPD as the primary state institution regulating environmental matters. The EPD is part of the legislative branch and reports directly to the Seimas. This approach has been adopted to avoid conflicts of interest between public ownership and environmental policy, as all major industries are state owned enterprises. It is intended that, after privatisation of major industries, the EPD will be transferred to a ministry of environment. In addition to setting standards for pollution limits, the EPD has the following tasks: • direct environmental poh'cy in Lithuania; • recommend environmental protection measures to the legislative and executive branches; • comment on the environmental impact of construction, relocation, or expansion of industry; • suspend the construction or relocation of enterprises which would violate environmental legislation; • suspend the activities of facilities violating or failing to implement environmental regulations. The Law on Environmental Protection adopted in 1992 builds on self monitoring. EPD inspectors perform periodic checks of pollutant releases to verify the accuracy of operators' reports. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - C0W1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 90 The Law on Pollution Tax 1991 includes economic sanctions for pollution. If an operator exceeds permissible pollution limits then a payment of three times the standard tax assessed for pollution discharge must be paid; if the emitter conceals or falsifies information on discharges, the charge is ten times the standard tax. The law specifies that this penalty cannot be passed on to the consumer. The Lithuanian Administrative Code also specifies penalties for violations of environmental law. Releasing pollutants to the environment without a permit may result in financial penalties, and the closure of the enterprise is also possible. 2.1.5 Nuclear Safety Inspectorate The Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (VATESI) is responsible for safety aspects of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. The Nuclear Safety Inspectorate is an institution independent of the Ministry of Energy. The Nuclear Safety Inspectorate does not have adequate resources and enforcement authority to perform its 2.2 LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Lithuania is divided into 44 districts and 11 towns. The roles and responsibilities of local governments are set out in the Law on the Fundamentals of Local Government 1990. The administrative structure is currently under review. One proposal foresees ten counties and 84 municipalities while another foresees 19 counties and 123 municipalities. Most of the major cities have a Department of Architecture and Urban Development that performs a physical master plan for urban development. Furthermore this department is responsible for supervision in relation to building regulation. Decisions on the extension of district heating networks are made in cooperation between the municipality and the district heating enterprise. In some cases infrastructure necessary to supply new housing areas with district heating is paid by the municipality while the district heating enterprise is responsible for maintenance. The municipalities have data on heated floor areas and official numbers of occupants in dwelling houses. This data forms the basis for calculating monthly heat expenses for residential consumers, and the municipality is responsible for the collection of heating bills. The districts and towns also have the right to restrain or forbid economic activity or to halt the activities of specific enterprises or organizations if environmental protection requirements are being violated. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 91 3. NON-GOVERNMENTAL REGULATING AND SUPERVISING BODIES In the Energy Efficiency Programme 1991 it was pointed out that a consultant service for heating and energy management would be a powerful scheme to improve energy efficiency in Lithuania. Supported by the Danish Government the first steps were taken in 1992 to establish a Heat Consultant Scheme in Lithuania. The first step included energy audits in selected larger buildings and a seminar summarizing experience and formulating proposals for the implementation of a heat consultant scheme. The report from the seminar suggests that the heat consultant scheme should be guided by a special Heat Saving Committee under the State Energy Conservation Committee. In parallel with the Heat Saving Committee there should be established a special committee for preparation of necessary legislation and economic support. These proposals are described in Establishment of Heat Consultant Schemes in Lithuania by Vykintas Suksteris. In the National Energy Conservation Programme 1992, prepared for the Ministry of Energy by V. Klevas and M. Tamonis, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Kaunas, the Heat Consultant Scheme is part of a more comprehensive institutional structure. Again the State Energy Conservation Committee is proposed as a basis for the scheme with the Energy Conservation Directorate as bemg responsible for the management of the scheme. Besides the Directorate it is proposed to establish a price committee, a Centre for strategic planning and a financing association, all under the responsibility of the State Energy Conservation Commission. 4. OTHER INSTITUTIONS A number of institutions are indirectly supportive of improved efficiency within the energy sector in Lithuania. Among these are: • a set of institutes in the major cities who tram engineers and managers across a wide variety of disciplines. The polytechnic institutes are linked with industrial sectors through various research projects as well as through the provision of professional training; • a number of universities in the country with economic faculties; • the Lithuanian Energy Institute in Kaunas There seem to be several institutions able to provide research and development as well as education within the energy sector and to provide background material for information campaigns. Professionals from these institutions could be recruited as energy consultants. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWl CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 92 There is an incipient private banking sector in Lithuania but the credit capacity is limited and there is little experience b handling of loans. For achieving improved energy efficiency and energy savings the financial sector must be further developed. 5. MANUFACTURERS 5.1 BUILDING MATERIALS As energy prices were relatively low the thermal resistance of building materials was not considered important. To improve the energy efficiency in new buildings as well as in the existing building stock and to apply improved energy standards the building materials production sector must change the production as quickly as possible. This transformation may be difficult due to the facts that many enterprises lack capital for investments in new equipment and consumers cannot afford to buy the new products. The Lithuanian Institute for Architecture and Construction has in 1991 prepared recommendations for flexible income taxing and a crediting mechanism to support the production of more energy efficient building materials. 5.2 METERING EQUIPMENT Changes in the tariff system will not be possible unless adequate metering equipment is available. Electricity meters are produced in Lithuania and steps are taken to form joint ventures with foreign companies. Heat meters are imported, and all heat production plants and industrial steam consumers have meters. Some public and commercial buildings have meters but there are only few meters in dwelling buildings. The existing meters work on relatively old principles, and they are often out of order. Consumers are allowed to buy their own meters and are also urged to do this. To promote meter installation the following incentives exist: • during the three years following the point of tune of meter installation the consumer pays only 90% of the metered energy consumption; • LSPS reimburse part of the cost of the meter to the consumer: * 80% for meters installed in 1992 * 60% for meters installed in 1993 IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 93 Several Lithuanian enterprises will be able to produce heat meters but it will be necessary to establish a compulsory measuring control. An authority responsible for measurement standards as well as institutions authorized to carry out type tests and verification of equipment should be appointed. For gas meters the situation seems to be similar to that of heat meters. 6. SUPPLY COMPANIES 6.1 ELECTRIC POWER SUBSECTOR 6.1.1 Generation Generation of electric power in Lithuania is provided by the Lithuanian State Power System (LSPS) and the Ignalina Nuclear Power Station. The Ignalina Nuclear Power Station is a specific state enterprise. Ignalina is producing major part of power generated in Lithuania. All power generated at Ignalina is sold to LSPS. LSPS is a specific state enterprise under the Ministry of Energy with the responsibility for production and transmission of power nationwide and supply of heat from combined production. The policy body of LSPS is the Board of Directors formed by the managing director, the chief engineer and the deputy engineers (operation), the deputy director for economics and the deputy director for planning and development. The managing director is appointed by the Ministry of Energy. LSPS comprises general management and several subsidiaries. The subsidiaries can be divided in three groups: power and heat generation; transmission and distribution of heat in 18 major towns; and special activities, such as a data processing centre and an electric meter maintenance enterprise. After March, 1991, several enterprises have been separated from LSPS. These enterprises can be subdivided into three groups: seven large power transmission and distribution companies; several construction enterprises; and some specific enterprises, such as Elga (producer of electric equipment) and Tema (procurement). The first group comprises special state enterprises while the two other groups comprise state enterprises. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 94 6.1.2 Transmission and Distribution LSPS sells power to the seven regional Network Utilities. These network utilities are responsible for the retail sale to end users. For industrial consumers max. power demand (MW) and annual energy consumption (GWh) are metered. For residential consumers only the energy consumption is metered. The seven network utilities are the following: Kaunas Network Utility Vilnius Network Utility Alytus Network Utility Utena Network Utility Panevezys Network Utility Siauliai Network Utility Klaipeda Network Utility The network utilities are organized as specific state enterprises but have very limited financial autonomy in relation to LSPS. A deficit in the budget is transferred to LSPS as a result of the tariff system, and investments are partly paid by the Government and partly by the municipalities. 6.1.3 Tariffs Each of the network utilities reports to LSPS its expected expenditures and expected sales volumes separated by consumer groups. Based on these reports and estimates on production costs from own generators and costs of purchases from Ignalina, LSPS calculates an average price sufficient to cover ail energy supply costs. Furthermore LSPS propose retail tariffs for different consumer groups. The average price as well as the proposed tariffs are reviewed by the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Economy before approval by the Government. The retail tariff for residential consumers is a one component energy tariff while the retail tariff for industrial consumers is a two component tariff with a fixed charge determined according to contracted capacity. The current tariffs imply a cross subsidy from industrial users to residential users. To ensure a uniform profit in all network utilities the whole sales price will depend on expected revenues of each of the network utilities resulting in cross subsidies from a utility with a large share of industrial consumers to a utility with a large share of residential consumers. These accounting procedures and tariffs do not include any incentives to improve efficiency in the network utilities. In reality the network utilities have no autonomy in relation to LSPS and the Government, and prices are a consequence of institutional factors rather than a driving mechanism to promote efficiency. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 95 In the "Outline for the Lithuanian Energy System", prepared by the Lithuanian Energy Institute, Kaunas, it was proposed to change the regulation of tariffs to a cost of regulation system. A World Bank project for restructuring LSPS has just been initiated. 6.2 DISTRICT HEATING SUBSECTOR Heat is produced by LSPS, Siluma and large industries. Heat delivered to industrial consumers is metered while heat delivered to residential consumers is not. For most heat producing units the only reliable information is on fuel consumption and heat delivered to industrial consumers. 6.2.1 LSPS Heat produced in co-generation plants owned by LSPS (50% of total heat generation) is distributed through six regional district heating enterprises (five of them are subsidiaries to LSPS) supplying 18 major cities. Lately the district heating enterprise Alytus has been separated from LSPS to form an autonomous enterprise. In these 18 major cities LSPS furthermore owns and operates several heat only boilers. 6.2.2 Siluma District heat supply to minor cities is under the responsibility of the autonomous enterprise Siluma. 6.2.3 Tariffs Each of the regional district heat enterprises reports to LSPS/Siluma its expected costs and expected sales volumes by consumer groups. Based on the reports and estimates of production costs, LSPS calculate an average price sufficient to cover all heat supply costs. Furthermore LSPS propose retail tariffs for different consumer groups. The average price as well as the proposed tariffs are reviewed by the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Economy before approval by the Government. With the approval the proposed tariffs become effective. The price of heat from co-generation is calculated according to the Soviet standard. This standard referred to as the physical method gives all benefits arising from efficiency improvements due to combined production to electricity consumers. The price of co-generated heat is according to this standard equal to the heat price from a heat only boiler. Residential consumers pay a square meter tariff for space heat and a tariff per person for domestic hot water. Space heat is paid approximately during seven months per year, while domestic hot water is paid during 12 months. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 96 Residential consumers pay to the municipality a heat tariff per square meter calculated as the official tariff (Talonas/Gcal) multiplied by a specific heat consumption (Gcal/m ) plus a premium to the municipality. The official tariff paid by residential consumers is far below the average tariff. The municipality pays to the district heat enterprise the average price (Talonas/Gcal) multiplied by the purchased heat (Gcal). The purchased heat is calculated as the total heat produced minus the metered heat delivered to industrial consumers. The district heat enterprise pays to LSPS the average price (Talonas/Gcal) multiplied by the purchased heat (Gcal). Industrial consumers pay directly to the district heat enterprise. The tariff paid by industrial consumers is above the average tariff, and in this way industrial consumers cross subsidize residential consumers to balance the budget. Most residential consumers are not able to control their heat consumption due to the lack of valves. Heat for residential consumption has under the Soviet regime been defined as a public good and therefore been centrally controlled. The valve on the radiator is a precondition for introducing energy saving habits. If no valves are available the occupants in the individual flats have no possibility to control room temperature and heat consumption. Accordingly valves on radiators are closely linked with other aspects of heating policy such as metering heat consumption and subsequent charge for heat. The role of the municipality as the collector of revenues seems inappropriate and is an example of a mix between competence and responsibility. With the Government defining the tariffs this mix is completed. The responsibility for all financial matters related to district heat supply should be within the district heat enterprise. 6.3 OIL SUBSECTOR The Lithuanian oil subsector is under reconstruction by a commission headed by the Ministry of Energy. Lithuanian Fuel (Lietuvos Kuras) with subsidiaries is responsible for fuel supply (oil and coal): Mazeikiai oil refinery Naphtha; Klaipeda Oil Enterprise; and Mazeikiai repair service Daktar. There are privately owned filling stations. 6.4 GAS SUBSECTOR Lithuanian Gas (Lietuvos Dujos) is responsible for supplying natural gas and liquid petroleum gas (LPG) to ten regional state enterprises which distribute gas to all districts having the infrastructure for gas. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COW! CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 97 Further subsidiaries are the five pipeline construction enterprises, the technical centre (Agnis) and the gas facility plant in Vilnius. A training centre and an information centre are proposed to be established as subsidiaries or as independent energy centres. 7. RESIDENTIAL CONSUMERS Before 1989 multi-family houses were either publicly owned and hired out by municipalities, or were co-operatively owned by tenants societies. In 1989 the Law on Privatisation of Housing was approved by the Seimas. It assigned to tenants a right to buy on favourable terms the apartments they occupied. The current situation is rather complicated with multi-family houses occupied by a mixture of owners and tenants. It seems to be a major problem that many residential heat consumers do not pay for heat consumption. The municipalities are responsible for the collection of money but have until now had no possibility or willingness to enforce consumers to pay. There seems to be no well defined financial relation between the seller of heat and the buyer of heat and it also seems unclear under which legislation this relation should be regulated. There is an urgent need to define how annual heat expenses should be divided among residents in apartment buildings and how the relation between seller and buyer should be regulated. The present institutional structure makes it difficult for tenants and owners to respond rationally to price increases by investing in energy saving measures. Such investments face several institutional and financial problems, e.g.: • limited credit capacity of the Lithuanian banking sector and very little experience in handling of loans, • no institutional system for technical and financial evaluation of energy saving projects, • lack of economic incentives in the tariff structure. 8. EVALUATION OF IMPROVEMENT MEASURES 8.1 CONCESSIONS The draft general Energy Law declares that all primary energy resources extractable from Lithuanian underground and continental shelf of the Baltic Sea are state-owned, while energy enterprises and objects may be of any legal ownership except for those of state wide importance. The enterprises supplying energy in Lithuania are presently structured as vertically integrated state owned monopolies. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - C0W1 CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 98 Vertical integration is a well known model for structuring the capital intensive part of the energy sector with an integrated infrastructure. Each company owns its own production, transmission and distribution facilities and serves a well defined franchise service territory with both an exclusive monopoly right and an accompanying obligation to provide end-use customers the service they need. The enterprises are regulated according to obligations and rights defined in a concession. In the petroleum industry the exploration and development of resources are regulated according to licenses. When energy is transported through networks (electricity, district heat and natural gas) generally an exclusive monopoly right will be a cost effective way of organizing the pertinent subsectors. Concessions and licenses have proven to be efficient regulatory tools regarding natural monopolies in the energy sector in most countries. Supplies of electricity and district heat, however, are not monopolies by their nature, as the operation of several supply chains often is an optimal solution; in England and Norway steps are taken to change the regulation in the power sector from exclusive monopoly rights to a competitive market. The introduction of competitive bidding in the United States also is an attempt to attract capital through a change of the regulation framework. In Lithuania the efficiency in the power and htat sectors can be improved substantially by coordinated decisions on investments in combined production. To ensure a close coordination between decisions made by the enterprises supplying energy, by individual consumers and by the authorities (Government and municipalities) a regulation through concessions will give the regulating authority the necessary possibility to influence the development of the sector in accordance with the objectives set by the Seimas. Therefore it is recommended that for a transition period enterprises supplying energy should be regulated through concessions given and supervised by the Ministry of Energy and the municipalities. When the major investment decisions are made and a decentralized commercial structure has become active, the regulatory system could be decentralized. Energy imports and exports as well as the primary energy resources are of vital economic importance for Lithuania. The rights to import and export energy and extract resources should therefore in the long-term be regulated by means of concessions. 8.2 ECONOMIC MEASURES When energy is supplied by enterprises under monopoly rights, it is necessary to protect the consumers against monopoly prices through a price regulation. A pricing study is currently being carried out by Kennedy and Donkin, and the World Bank has just prepared a note concerning Redesigning Energy Subsidies and Support Programmes. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 99 As stated in the World Bank note, the Government of Lithuania has developed an intricate system of subsidy programmes that substantially reduces the final price of heat for residential consumers during the winter season. In the case of natural gas and heating oil, subsidies are financed directly from the budget. In the case of district heat, there is a combination of cross subsidization of residential consumers by industrial consumers and budgetary transfers to the Lithuania State Power System to cover operation costs. The cross subsidization between residences and enterprises also implies a regional cross subsidization where residential regions are subsidized by industrial regions. In addition to these subsidy schemes, the Government has also established an income support programme which provides targeted benefits to lower income groups to compensate, among other things, for energy price increases. The system has resulted in acute economic problems and unacceptable behaviour both at suppliers' and consumers' level as e.g. disconnection of industrial consumers, lacking interest in energy saving measures and build-up in arrears. The World Bank note makes a number of recommendations for restructuring the system, which would be an important step in the right direction towards appropriate pricing policies. Higher energy prices would have two effects on demand: they would promote energy conservation and reduce the energy intensity of the economic activity, and they would improve the energy efficiency by inducing a shift in the composition of fuel use. In addition, appropriate tariffs allowing for cost recovery and profitable operation of energy suppliers would generate internal funds necessary to help finance improvements and to open access to future foreign borrowing by energy companies. The decision to reform the subsidies and support programme should include an institutional revision designed to make explicit and more transparent the division of responsibility between the Government and the enterprises. The traditional mechanism of regulation in the power and district heat sectors has been the cost of service regulation, i.e. setting overall revenues equal to total cost (operating expenses, capital cost and an allowed rate of return on the invested capital). The cost of service regulation is a performance regulation focusing on the outcome. The regulating regime in some countries is now changing from performance regulation towards incentive regulation. Performance Cost of Service/ Overall revenues equal to total cost Rate of Return Incentive Price Cap Prices allowed to be raised by the change in price index The performance regulation is quite easy to administer but does not include an incentive to control costs of the enterprises as increases in costs can be offset to the consumers. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 100 The mcentive regulation, price cap regulation, is developed in the UK and allows a company to raise its rates on regulated services from a base level by the change in the retail price including an incentive factor. The draft general Energy Law comprises the establishment of price commissions made up from representatives of the Government (municipalities), energy producers, supplying organizations and consumers. A good initiative to protect involved parties from unacceptable price regulations. The draft general Energy Law further claims that the state will promote the utilization of domestic resources through e.g. government grants. 5.3 NORMATIVE MEASURES Normative measures regarding the insulation standards of buildings, heating systems as well as electrical appliances will be an efficient tool to reduce energy consumption at end user level. The authority to define these normative measures should be vested in by-laws and decrees based on the work of specific working groups. IC CONSULT - ERM ENERGY - COWI CONSULT LITHUANIAN ENERGY INSTITUTE 101