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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Riding High YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Riding high Entertainment BLACKPINK beats out BTS in November YouTube views BLACKPINK and BTS are currently the two biggest K-pop acts on the global music scene. BTS is once again demonstrating its global influence through its 20-city world Company Update tour (from August 2018 to April 2019), with concert tickets reselling (unofficially) for up December 5, 2018 to millions of won and long lines of fans camping outside concert venues. Meanwhile, BLACKPINK has built a huge fan base online, with the group’s YouTube channel attracting 15.3mn subscribers as of December 5 th (a threefold increase from 5.3mn at end-2017, and 81% of BigHit Entertainment’s 19mn subscribers). According to market data, BLACKPINK’s YouTube channel was viewed 370mn times in (Maintain) Buy November, beating out BTS (BigHit Entertainment and Bangtan TV), which had 210mn views during the month. The number was also higher than the level seen during the Target Price (12M, W) 60,000 height of the group’s mega hit “DDU-DU DDU-DU” (average of 340mn views in June- July ). What’s even more encouraging is that the strong traffic does not appear to be driven solely by Jennie’s new song (“SOLO”). Amid an overall increase in YouTube users, Share Price (12/05/18, W) 44,500 we believe YG Entertainment’s growing content library—combined with frequent uploads and the rising influence of various versions of content—is driving the huge Expected Return 35% number of views. We thus believe traffic growth is sustainable and structural. Of note, “SOLO” (November) has already bee n viewed 100mn times, compared with 520mn times for “DDU-DU DDU-DU” (June). OP (18F, Wbn) 12 Expectations through 2019 remain low, but potential catalysts are growing Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 11 It is widely anticipated that Big Bang’s absence will lead to an earnings void through 2019. While expectations have been lowered as a result , we see an increasing number EPS Growth (18F, %) -55.8 of potential catalysts that could drive a gradual upgrade in earnings estimates: Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 10.2 1) As the company’s resources and fan bases shift toward its next-generation artists , P/E (18F, x) 108.1 their activities are rapidly expanding. Both WINNER and iKON have remained busy Market P/E (18F, x) 8.6 after wrapping up their Asia tours in November. WINNER is scheduled to go on a KOSDAQ 701.12 seven-city North American tour in January (followed by a Japanese tour), while iKON is set to perform two dome concerts in Japan and release a repackaged version of their Market Cap (Wbn) 809 album Love Scenario at the end of the year (followed by a Japanese tour) . Meanwhile, Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 BLACKPINK will hold a dome concert in Japan at the end of the year and a seven- country tour in Asia from January to March, followed by another stop in North America. Free Float (%) 62.7 Group member Rose is also getting ready for a solo debut, and a second group album Foreign Ownership (%) 14.7 is in the works. Beta (12M) 0.74 2) A new boy group will debut in 1H19 as part of the company’s show, YG Treasure Box. 52-Week Low 27,000 Three of the show’s 10 episodes have aired so far, and have been viewed 26mn times 52-Week High 46,700 on V LIVE and YouTube combined. The show has been more popular in Japan and Southeast Asia than in Korea, and the winning group is likely to include a Japanese (%) 1M 6M 12M member. Of note, w e believe the company has already recovered most of the show’s Absolute 18.5 56.7 45.4 production costs by taking advantage of its multi-platform format. This change in profit Relative 17.0 96.0 60.6 structure is particularly meaningful, given that content production losses totaled W9.6bn over the past four quarters. 170 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ Benefiting from new media 150 We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W60,000 on YG Entertainment. Given K- 130 pop’s growing status and the increasing value of music video content, w e believe 110 Korean entertainment firms overall will be nefit from the rise of new media. Among them, we think YG Entertainment has gained the most traction. The company is 90 continuing to demonstrate strong YouTube traffic growth, led by BLACKPINK. Ad rates 70 also have strong upside potential (more than double), c onsidering the company’s 11.17 3.18 7.18 11.18 favorable position in talks regarding the e stablishment of Music & Creative Partners Asia (MCPA; a Korean version of VEVO), and potential geographical mix improvement s Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (increased exposure to the US). [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 193 322 350 289 304 450 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 22 32 24 12 26 54 [email protected] OP margin (%) 11.4 9.9 6.9 4.2 8.6 12.0 NP (Wbn) 28 19 18 8 22 45 EPS (W) 1,700 1,094 931 412 1,107 2,304 ROE (%) 14.7 7.7 5.7 2.3 6.0 11.6 P/E (x) 26.2 25.9 31.0 108.1 40.2 19.3 P/B (x) 3.6 1.8 1.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates December 5, 2018 YG Entertainment Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn, %p) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18F 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue 107 72 75 95 77 63 65 83 289 304 450 Products 27 32 24 50 20 26 30 37 112 139 201 Albums 18 22 16 17 13 16 17 21 12 19 27 Goods 8 9 8 34 6 9 13 16 45 54 87 Management 80 41 51 45 58 37 30 46 171 165 249 Concerts 13 7 21 15 2 1 5 11 19 33 64 Advertising 9 12 10 8 7 8 7 5 27 27 27 Royalties 49 6 5 1 35 5 4 11 54 41 87 Appearance fees 5 4 5 6 3 5 4 6 17 16 19 Commissions 4 11 9 11 8 18 9 11 45 40 42 Production 0 0 0 4 3 0 1 3 8 8 10 Gross profit 33.0 24.6 20.8 22.3 20.5 21.7 21.5 24.1 88 102 148 Operating profit 14.8 4.3 1.5 4.6 2.3 1.4 2.6 6.0 12 26 54 OP margin 13.9 6.0 2.0 4.8 3.0 2.3 4.4 7.2 4.3 8.7 12.1 Pretax profit 13.6 6.0 7.8 2.6 2.9 1.7 3.2 4.8 13 27 56 Net profit 6.0 4.7 5.3 -4.1 0.8 -0.4 1.1 3.3 5 19 39 Net margin 5.6 6.6 7.1 -4.3 1.0 -0.6 1.9 4.0 1.7 6.2 8.7 Controlling interests 7.3 4.4 6.2 -0.1 2.3 -0.1 2.0 3.8 8.0 21.6 45.0 YoY Revenue 46.5 -6.5 -25.7 35.8 -27.7 -13.2 -13.3 -12.7 -17.5 5.5 48.0 Products 43.9 46.5 -0.9 91.9 -26.3 -18.6 24.5 -26.1 -15.2 24.0 44.2 Management 47.4 -27.1 -33.6 2.6 -28.0 -9.0 -41.8 2.2 -21.4 -3.5 51.3 Gross profit 42.2 7.1 -27.5 10.6 -37.8 -11.8 3.4 8.4 -12.7 16.2 45.0 Operating profit 56.3 -36.1 -87.8 30.0 -84.4 -67.2 77.8 31.7 -50.8 112.9 105.7 Net profit -6.8 -27.8 133.7 RR -87.0 TTR -78.8 TTB -59.2 287.3 108.2 Major assumptions Ticket sales volume in Japan 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.2 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 1. 24-month forward P/E band (W) 64x 40x 70,000 60,000 25x 50,000 40,000 19x 30,000 20,000 10,000 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.7 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 December 5, 2018 YG Entertainment Figure 2. YG Entertainment’s YouTube-related net revenue growing rapidly on simultaneous growth in prices and volume (Wbn) 18 YouTube (Google) net revenue 16 15 13 12 9 8 6 6 3 3 0 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. BLACKPINK’s YouTube view count set a new record in November (mn views) 500 BLACK PINK YG (YG ENTERTAINMENT + BLACK PINK + iKON + WINNER) Big Hit (ibighit + BangtanTV) 400 300 200 100 0 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.9 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 4.
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