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(CPC) Outreach Journal #1096 USAF Counterproliferation Center (CPC) Outreach Journal Issue No. 1096, 03 January 2014 Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal! As part of the CPC’s mission to develop Air Force, DoD, and other USG leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions on unconventional weapons. These discussions include news articles, papers, and other information sources that address issues pertinent to the U.S. national security community. It is our hope that this information resources will help enhance the overall awareness of these important national security issues and lead to the further discussion of options for dealing with the potential use of unconventional weapons. The CPC is seeking submissions for its annual General Charles A. Horner award, which honors the best original writing on issues relating to Air Force counter-WMD and nuclear enterprise operations. The deadline for submissions is March 31, 2014. For more information, please visit our web-site. The following news articles, papers, and other information sources do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the Air University, U.S. Air Force, or Department of Defense. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. FEATURED ITEM: Performance Metrics for the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture: Abbreviated Version. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2013. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18424 The National Academies conducted a study for the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office on quantative approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA), specifically in the context of assessing the feasibility of using performance measures and quantitative metrics and recommending approaches for evaluating the overall effectiveness of the GNDA. Outreach Journal Feedback or sign-up request: [email protected] U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS 1. U.S. Nuclear Weapon Plans to Cost $355 Billion over a Decade: CBO Report 2. US Nuclear Missiles are a Force in much Distress 3. Compromise Bill Could Make Nuclear Warhead Cost Study ‘Less Painful’ 4. Letter Seeks Delay on ICBM Study U.S. COUNTER-WMD 1. Defense Bill Trims Funding for SBIRS, Boosts Some Missile Defense Accounts U.S. ARMS CONTROL 1. US Uranium Laser Enrichment Technology Threatens Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 2. Surveillance Network Built to Spot Secret Nuclear Tests Yields Surprise Scientific Boon ASIA/PACIFIC 1. North Korea may be Producing Fuel Rods 2. Kim Jong-un Warns of Sudden War 3. China’s Nuclear Bomber Can Hit US Military Bases: Report 4. Kim Jong Un Stacking Military with Allies to Consolidate Power 5. China Plans Military Reform to Enhance its Readiness 6. Japan's Nuclear Capability Matches US: Chinese Daily 7. Kim Seeks ROK Ties, Warns US of Nuclear 'Disaster' Issue No.1096, 03 January 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama EUROPE/RUSSIA 1. Russia’s Second Next-Gen Nuclear Sub Enters Service 2. Russia Successfully Tests latest ‘YARS’ Intercontinental Ballistic Missile 3. New Russian Attack Sub to Join Navy on Dec. 30 4. Russia Test-Fires ICBM to Target in Kazakhstan MIDDLE EAST 1. Iran MPs Want Higher Uranium Enrichment in Case of New Sanctions 2. Arak’s Plutonium Not Usable for Bombs: Salehi 3. Iran Develops New Generation of Uranium Centrifuges 4. Iranian Official Calls for Direct Talks with US 5. Rouhani Optimistic as Talks on Iran Nuke Deal Resume 6. Ships Return to Dock as Syria Chemical Weapons Deadline Missed 7. Iran Appoints Supervisors for Negotiating Team with World Powers 8. Iran, 6 Powers ‘to Continue Contact Through Jan.’ INDIA/PAKISTAN 1. India Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-III Missile 2. N-Facilities: India, Pakistan Exchange List COMMENTARY 1. Strategic Bombers: MVP of the Nuclear Triad 2. Russia, Iran, Judo Diplomacy, and Ballistic Missile Defense 3. Missile-Defense System Can't Be Allowed to Decay 4. Don't Toss the Bomb 5. We Cannot Tolerate 'Rot' in Nuke Force 6. Opposition to B61 Threatens Nuclear Reductions, Deterrence The Chicago Tribune U.S. Nuclear Weapon Plans to Cost $355 Billion over a Decade: CBO Report By David Alexander, Reuters December 20, 2013 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration's plans for the U.S. nuclear weapons complex, including modernization of bombs, delivery systems and laboratories, will cost the country about $355 billion over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office said on Friday. That is nearly $150 billion more than administration's $208.5 billion estimate in a report to Congress last year, an analyst at an arms control group said, and since the modernization effort is just beginning, costs are expected to greatly increase after 2023. The budget office said President Barack Obama had requested $23.1 billion for U.S. nuclear forces in the 2014 fiscal year, including $18 billion to maintain the weapons and supporting laboratories as well as the submarines, bombers and missiles to deliver the weapons. In the decade to 2013, the administration's plans to modernize and maintain submarines, bombers and missiles will cost about $136 billion, the CBO said in a 25-page report. Weapons labs, weapons and naval reactors will cost $105 billion, and the United States will spend another $56 billion on command and control systems. Adding expected cost growth of $59 billion raises the total to $355 billion over a decade. Issue No.1096, 03 January 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 2 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama The estimates come as the United States is at the start of what Air Force General Robert Kehler, the head of U.S. Strategic Command, has called a "multi-decade effort to recapitalize our nuclear deterrent force and its supporting infrastructure." In addition to modernizing 1970s-era weapons, in some case replacing 1960s-model vacuum tubes with current- day electronics, the Pentagon will soon need to replace much of the triad of delivery systems, including a new class of ballistic missile submarines and a new type of long-range bomber. Obama, who favors eventually eliminating atomic weapons, has endorsed the nuclear modernization effort, saying it is needed to boost the security of the arms and to give U.S. military and political leaders the confidence they need to negotiate further reductions in the nuclear arsenal. The New START treaty that Obama negotiated with Russia committed the former Cold War rivals to reducing deployed strategic nuclear weapons to 1,550 per side by 2018. Obama said in a speech in Berlin this summer he believes that figure could be reduced by another third, to between 1,000 and 1,100 and still guarantee U.S. and allied security. But with the U.S. government facing tight budgets as it attempts to reduce the massive federal deficit, arms control groups and some think tanks question the wisdom of spending hundreds of billions on weapons that are unlikely to be used. "The impending nuclear modernization tidal wave will force increasingly difficult tradeoffs between nuclear and conventional capabilities," said Kingston Reif, a director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. He said while it is true U.S. nuclear forces require some modernization, the current size of the U.S. arsenal is a Cold War holdover "that is increasingly irrelevant to today's security threats, costs billions of dollars to maintain and sucks funding from higher priority programs." The Union of Concerned Scientists said in a report in October that some of administration's plans to modernize the weapons were misguided and violated the spirit of its pledge not to develop new nuclear arms. The budget office report noted that the United States also spends a substantial sum on other nuclear-related activities, including legacy costs of nuclear arms and spending on threat reduction, arms control and missile defense systems. Those costs will be an additional $20.8 billion in the 2014 fiscal year that began in October and are estimated to total $215 billion over the decade to 2023, the budget office said. Reporting by David Alexander; Editing by Leslie Adler http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-12-20/news/sns-rt-us-usa-nuclear-arms-20131220_1_modernization- weapons-submarines Return to Top The Washington Post US Nuclear Missiles are a Force in much Distress By Robert Burns, Associated Press December 21, 2013 WASHINGTON — The hundreds of nuclear missiles that have stood war-ready for decades in underground silos along remote stretches of America, silent and unseen, packed with almost unimaginable destructive power, are a force in distress, if not in decline. They are still a fearsome superpower symbol, primed to unleash nuclear hell on a moment’s notice at any hour of any day, capable of obliterating people and places halfway around the globe if a president so orders. Issue No.1096, 03 January 2014 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 3 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama But the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, is dwindling, their future defense role is in doubt, and missteps and leadership lapses documented by The Associated Press this year have raised questions about how the force is managed. The AP revealed one missile officer’s lament of “rot” inside the force, and an independent assessment for the Air Force found signs of “burnout” among missile launch crews.
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