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European Elections Under Scrutiny Lessons for a European Democracy

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European Elections Under Scrutiny Lessons for a European Democracy FOKUS | 5/2009 European Elections Under Scrutiny Lessons for a European Democracy Almut Möller ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Die zentralen Ergebnisse der Europawahlen lassen sich auf der Basis der offi ziellen Parlamentsstatistiken leicht zusammenfassen: 43 Prozent Wahlbeteiligung in den 27 Mitgliedstaaten, ein neuer Tiefstand seit den ersten Direktwahlen zum Europäischen Parlament im Jahr 1979. Die europäischen Konservativen haben Sitze verloren, gehen aber erneut als stärkste Kraft aus den Wahlen hervor. Die Fraktion der Europäischen Volkspartei wird im neuen Parlament 265 der insgesamt 736 Sitze innehaben. Verloren hat auch die Fraktion der europäischen Sozialisten, die nun nur noch auf 184 Sitze kommt. Gewinne für die Liberalen (84 Sitze) und die Fraktion der Grünen (55 Sitze). Es wird eine neue konservative Fraktion mit 55 Sitzen geben, die European Conservatives and Reformists Group. Auch die kleinen Parteien gewinnen an Stimmen, darunter europa- und ausländerfeindliche Gruppierungen. In den Medien wurden die Ergebnisse der Europawahl schnell abgewickelt: Verluste der Sozialdemokraten, Dominanz nationaler Themen, geringe Wahlbeteiligung, Stimmengewinne für die Europagegner und Ausländerfeinde, das waren die Schlagzeilen; erneut wurde europäische Krisenrhetorik bemüht. Weiterführend ist es jedoch, sich mit einigen elementaren Fragen zu beschäftigen: Gibt es inzwischen auch den ‚wirkli- chen’ Europa-Wähler? Was wissen wir über ihn? Gibt die Europawahl Aufschlüsse über das Entstehen einer europäischen Demokratie? Welche Lehren können Europastrategen, Wahlkämpfer und Medien jenseits europäischer Gemeinplätze für künftige Europawahlen ziehen? Von Nöten ist eine intensivere, mit statistischem Material unterfütterte Debatte zu diesen Fragen, wenn es mit der Demokratisierung der Euro- päischen Union tatsächlich ernst gemeint ist. (Ein Gesamtüberblick über die Europawahlen und die Ergebnisse nach Ländern fi nden sich unter http://www.elections2009-results.eu/de/index_de.html) Overall Results of the European Limited Debate About the Election elections 2009 Results To sum up the main results of the Euro- will be a new conservative group by the In the immediate aftermath of the elec- pean elections 2009: Just over 43 per cent name of European Conservatives and Re- tions there has been to some extent a of eligible voters across the 27 member formists Group that will have 55 seats. It is more in depth analysis of the results in states of the European Union went to certainly worth and necessary to look into the 27 member states. However, in an the ballots between June 4-7, 2009. The further details of the new composition of overall perspective, the topics discussed turnout reached another record low since the European Parliament, but these are have been rather limited so far. Media the fi rst direct elections to the European the basic facts for now. and analysts have focused on four major Parliament in 1979. The European People’s Party lost seats but will remain the stron- Political group Number of seats Score in % Legend: gest political group holding 265 of the EPP: Group of the European People‘s Party (Christian Democrats) EPP 265 36,0 S & D: Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Demo- European Parliament’s 736 seats. Europe’s S & D 184 25,9 crats in the European Parliament ALDE : Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Socialists will be represented with only ALDE 84 11,4 GREENS/ EFA: Group of the Greens / European Free Alliance ECR: European Conservatives and Reformists Group 184 seats in the new Parliament. Both GREENS / EFA 55 7,5 GUE/ NGL: Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Liberals and Greens won seats compared ECR 55 7,5 Green Left to 2004 (Liberals: 84; Greens: 55). So did EFD: Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group GUE / NGL 35 4,8 NA: Non-attached other smaller parties, including anti- EFD 30 4,1 Source: European and xenophobic groups. There European Parliament, http://www.elections2009-results.eu/en/ NA 28 3,8 index_en.html as of 9th July 2009 1 FOKUS | 5/2009 aspects: The poor performance of the to vote the President of the European lysts tried hard enough? Have they asked European Socialists, the dominance of na- Commission into offi ce instead of leaving the right questions? Have they managed tional rather than European topics during it to Europe’s governments (which is to bring together the existing fi ndings the election campaign (“national vote”), unlikely to happen), by a growing Eu- from the 27 member states in a systema- the record-low turnout, the gains for ropean debate and the emergence of a tic way? eurosceptics and xenophobics. The post European public sphere, by creating new election analysis was not very energetic instruments of participation (such as the Some very basic examples: The topics and only a few days after the elections European Citizens’ Initiative in the Treaty discussed in the aftermath of the elec- they had already disappeared from the of Lisbon) – or by increasing the number tions so far (see above). Some of them headlines. It is tempting to go back to of people that make use of their right to are merely European common places, business as usual fairly quickly now. vote in the elections, ideally motivated crisis rhetoric or extremist exceptions and by European rather than national topics. do not refl ect the majority of votes. But The new European Parliament will be None of these suggestions are new to the who are the voters that cast their vote perfectly able to operate, so from a European debate. and that constitute the majority of the 43 cynical perspective one might argue: Why per cent? The ones that did not vote for bother? If one is serious, however, about ---------------------------------------- anti-European or extremist parties? What a more democratic Europe, there should or who made them go to the ballots? To be more attention paid to what those We have not learned the lessons what extent did they vote “national” – or Europeans who actually did go to the bal- “European”? Are they generally better lots expressed precisely with their votes. from previous European informed about Europe? Do they express Further assessments based on statistical a general support of the European project evidence are perhaps in the making at elections. when voting? Do they vote because the moment. They should be made part they feel it is important not to waste an of a wider European debate on perspec- ---------------------------------------- opportunity to use their democratic right tives of democratisation of the European to vote? Do they tend to vote because of Union. One remembers vividly the discussion specifi c interests, because of a particular after the last European elections in 2004 topic or a face? Learning Lessons For Europe’s that pretty much went along the same Democracy lines. However, it seems that we have ---------------------------------------- not learned the lessons from previous Generally speaking, the turnout of far less European elections. Or maybe emerging Apart from the always bored, than 50 per cent and the fact that it has trends have been overlooked so far be- been decreasing ever since the fi rst direct cause they are diffi cult to detect. the anti-Europeans and the elections in 1979 constitutes a problem for European democracy. Whether this The European Electorate: xenophobic exceptions, what lack of interest in elections is a European The Big Unknown? problem or also applies to national and about the majority of the subnational elections is another question. One of the major reasons for this is that That democracy means more than just we do not know enough about the Eu- voters? holding free and fair elections every fi ve ropean electorate yet. Or maybe statis- years is yet another one. ticians actually DO know a lot about the ---------------------------------------- European electorate, but their fi ndings The democratisation of the European have not been fi ltered through suffi cient- Rather than hearing about the always bo- Union can indeed take eff ect on many ly to European campaigners, media and red, the anti-Europeans and the xenopho- levels: For example, by establishing the strategists. bic exceptions, what about the majority European Parliament as a truly second The European electorate is complex. of voters in the European elections? Who chamber with equal rights to the Council European citizens have diff erent layers of are these people? Are they merely voting of Ministers in European legislation (political) identity. From a methodological “national” as it is being suggested? To (which will pretty much happen with the point of view, it is very challenging to set what extent are they also voting along provisions of the Treaty of Lisbon), by gi- up a toolbox for analysing and assessing European lines of discourse? To what ving more rights to national parliaments the outcome of a pan-European election extent are they voting because they are in the European legislative process, by involving 27 member states and some hoping to make a diff erence in European giving the European Parliament the right 375 million eligible voters. But have ana- policies? It might sound naïve, but do 2 FOKUS | 5/2009 businesspeople, companies, traders, outcome of this year’s European election arguably those parts of European socie- by analysts, the quick return to business To Europe’s strategists: Do you see ties that have benefi ted the most from as usual – they are all problematic. One that the remaining structural weak- the European project with its liberalized should not blame the majority of voters nesses of the European Parliament markets so far, started to vote more than who, because of a lack of orientation or a will be addressed? Above all, will others because they have understood general lack of interest in politics, stayed European governments ever decide the power of the European Parliament at home. to give the European Parliament the in the common market legislation? Did One should rather be critical toward the right to vote the President of the the farmers across Europe go out to ways that these and previous election European Commission into offi ce? (In vote to fi nd a lobby for their interests results have been dealt with so far.
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