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Météorologie Parcours : « Science Et Technique De Prévision Météorologique Et Hydrologique »

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Météorologie Parcours : « Science Et Technique De Prévision Météorologique Et Hydrologique » UNIVERSITE D'ANTANANARIVO ***************** ECOLE SUPERIEURE POLYTECHNIQUE ***************** MENTION : METEOROLOGIE Mémoire de fin d’études en vue de l’obtention du diplôme Grade : Master Titre : Ingénieur Mention : Météorologie Parcours : « Science et technique de prévision météorologique et hydrologique » Intitulé : CONTRIBUTION A L’EVALUATION DU MODELE NUMERIQUE WRF POUR DES SIMULATIONS DE PRECIPITATIONS LORS DU PASSAGE DU CYCLONE AVA Présenté par : ZOARIMAMY Henintsoa Onjaniaina Soutenu publiquement le 31 Octobre 2019 Promotion 2018 UNIVERSITE D'ANTANANARIVO ***************** ECOLE SUPERIEURE POLYTECHNIQUE ***************** MENTION : METEOROLOGIE Mémoire de fin d’études en vue de l’obtention du diplôme Grade : Master Titre : Ingénieur Mention : Météorologie Parcours : « Sciences et techniques de prévision météorologique et hydrologique » Intitulé : CONTRIBUTION A L’EVALUATION DU MODELE NUMERIQUE WRF POUR DES SIMULATIONS DE PRECIPITATIONS LORS DU PASSAGE DU CYCLONE AVA Présenté par : ZOARIMAMY Henintsoa Onjaniaina Soutenu publiquement le 31 Octobre 2019 devant les membres de jury composés de : Président : Mr RAKOTOVAZAHA Olivier Maitre de conférences et Enseignant chercheur à l’ESPA Examinateurs : ❖ Mr RAVALISOA Hobinirina Hasindray Ingénieur et Chef du Service d’Appui aux Veilles Météorologiques et Hydrologiques au sein de la DGM ❖ Mr RAVELOMANANTSOA Sitraka Ingénieur et Chef de Division Agrométéorologie et Hydrologie au sein de la DGM Directeur de mémoire : RAHARIVELOARIMIZA Soarijaona Samuëline Docteur-Ingénieur et Enseignant à l’ESPA Co-directeur de mémoire : RAKOTOMAVO Zo Andrianina Patrick Herintiana Ingénieur et Chef du Service des Recherches Hydrométéorologiques au sein de la DGM Promotion 2018 REMERCIEMENTS Tout d’abord, je remercie l’Eternel Dieu tout puissant qui m’a donné la force, la santé, le courage, la connaissance tout au long du travail et qui m’a permis d’arriver à terme de ce mémoire. A Lui seul la gloire. Ainsi, l’élaboration de cet ouvrage a pu être accomplie grâce à l’aide et à la collaboration de nombreuses personnes à l’égard desquelles je tiens à exprimer mes profondes affections et mes sincères remerciements. J’adresse mes sincères remerciements à Monsieur RAKOTOSAONINA Rijalalaina, Professeur et Directeur de l’École Supérieure Polytechnique d’Antananarivo qui m’a permis d’effectuer mes études au sein de l’établissement. Je remercie également Monsieur RAMANAKOTO Toky Nandrasana, Maitre de conférences et Responsable de la mention météorologie à l’ESPA de m’avoir laissé suivre les formations au sein du département et à Monsieur Olivier RAKOTOVAZAHA qui nous fait l’honneur de présider cette soutenance. Tous mes vifs remerciements à la Direction Générale de la Météorologie d’Ampandrianomby, son Directeur Général et tout le personnel, en particulier à Monsieur RAKOTOMAVO Zo Andrianina Patrick Herintiana Chef du Service des Recherches Hydrométéorologiques, qui a accepté d’être mon encadreur professionnel et qui a largement contribué à l’élaboration de ce travail malgré ses diverses occupations. Je tiens à exprimer ma profonde gratitude à Madame RAHARIVELOARIMIZA Soarijaona Samuëline, Docteur Ingénieur de la Météorologie, qui malgré ses lourdes responsabilités a accepté d’encadrer ce mémoire et a consacré son temps pour avoir suivi ce travail. Mes plus respectueuses reconnaissances s’adressent également aux personnes suivantes, qui m’ont fait l’honneur d’être les examinateurs de ce mémoire : ❖ Monsieur RAVALISOA Hobinirina Hasindray, Chef du Service d’Appui aux Veilles Météorologiques et Hydrologiques au sein de la DGM et Enseignant à l’ESPA ❖ Monsieur RAVELOMANANTSOA Sitraka, Chef de Division Agrométéorologie et Hydrologie au sein de la DGM Enfin, j’adresse un grand MERCI à mes parents pour leur sacrifice et leurs soutiens ainsi qu’à toute ma famille notamment à la famille ANDRIANOROVELO, à tous les Enseignants, aux Personnels administratifs au sein de l’ESPA et à tous mes amis, ainsi qu’à toutes les personnes qui, de près ou de loin ont contribué à la réalisation de ce mémoire. Que Dieu vous bénisse ! « Or, à celui qui peut faire, par la puissance qui agit en nous, infiniment au-delà de tout ce que nous demandons ou pensons, à lui soit la gloire ». Ephésiens 3 : 20 i ZOARIMAMY Henintsoa Onjaniaina Promotion 2018 SOMMAIRE REMERCIEMENTS SOMMAIRE LISTE DES ACRONYMES LISTE DES FIGURES LISTE DES TABLEAUX LISTE DES ANNEXES GLOSSAIRE INTRODUCTION PARTIE I. GENERALITES CHAPITRE 1 : GENERALITES SUR LES CYCLONES TROPICAUX CHAPITRE 2 : GENERALITES SUR LES PRECIPITATIONS CHAPITRE 3 : LA PREVISION NUMERIQUE DU TEMPS PARTIE II. METHODOLOGIE CHAPITRE 4 : LE MODELE NUMERIQUE A MESO ECHELLE WRF CHAPITRE 5 : MISE EN ŒUVRE DU MODELE CHAPITRE 6 : LE CYCLONE AVA A MADAGASCAR PARTIE III. RESULTATS ET DISCUSSIONS CHAPITRE 7 : CONFIGURATION DU MODELE CHAPITRE 8 : RESULTATS DES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES CONCLUSION BIBLIOGRAPHIE ET WEBOGRAPHIE ANNEXES TABLE DES MATIERES ii ZOARIMAMY Henintsoa Onjaniaina Promotion 2018 LISTE DES ACRONYMES ARW : Advanced Research WRF AVHRR : Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer CDO : Central Dense Overcast CEPMMT : Centre Européen de Prévisions Météorologiques à Moyen Terme CHIRP : Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation CMRS : Centre Météorologique Régional Spécialisé CT : Cyclone Tropical CTI : Cyclone Tropical Intense CTTI : Cyclone Tropical Très Intense De : Dépression extratropicale DGM : Direction Générale de la Météorologie Dp : Dépression post-tropicale Ds : Dépression subtropicale DT : Dépression Tropicale Dterre : Dépression sur terre ENSO : El Niño-Southern Oscillation EUMETSAT : European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites FAA : Administration Fédérale de l’Aviation FAO : Food and Agriculture Organization FORTRAN : FORmula TRANslator FTT : Forte Tempete Tropicale GFS : Global Forecasting System GMT : Greenwich Mean Time GrADS : Gridded And Display System GRIB : GRIdded Binary HPC : High Performance Computer IDV : Integrated Data Viewer LBC : Lateral Boundary Condition MET : Model Evaluation Tools MJO : Madden-Julian Oscillation MODIS : Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MPE : Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate MSL : Mean Sea Level NCAR : National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP : National Center for Environmental Prediction NCL : NCAR Graphics Command Language NetCDF : Network Common Data Form NMM : Non hydrostatic Mesoscale Model iii ZOARIMAMY Henintsoa Onjaniaina Promotion 2018 NOAA : National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRL : Laboratoire de recherche Naval OMM : Organisation Météorologique Mondiale PNT : Prévision Numérique du Temps PT : Perturbation Tropicale QBO : Quasi-Biennal Oscillation RIP4 : Read Interpolate Plot RMSE : Root Mean Square Error SIOD : Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole SWOI : Sud Ouest de l'Océan Indien SPE : Système de Prévision d’Ensemble SRR : Stratiform Rain Ratio STATSGO : State Soil Geographic TM : Talweg de Mousson TRMM : Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TSM : Température de la Surface de la Mer TTM : Tempete Tropicale Modérée TU : Temps Universel USGS : United State Geological Survey UTC : Universal Time Coordinated VAPOR : Visualization And Analysis Platform For Ocean, Atmosphere, And Solar Researches WPS : WRF Preprocessing System WRF : Weather Research and Forecast WRF-DA : Weather Research and Forecasting-Data Assimilation ZCIT : Zone de Convergence InterTropicale Zp : Zone perturbée iv ZOARIMAMY Henintsoa Onjaniaina Promotion 2018 LISTE DES FIGURES Figure 1: Etapes de formation d'un cyclone..................................................................................... 6 Figure 2: Force de Coriolis ................................................................................................................ 7 Figure 3: Position de la Zone de Convergence Intertropicale (ZCIT)................................................ 8 Figure 4: Sept (7) zone de cyclogenèse dans le monde ................................................................... 9 Figure 5: Structure d'un cyclone .................................................................................................... 10 Figure 6: Vent avant, pendant et après le passage de l'œil ........................................................... 10 Figure 7: Mur du cyclone ................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 8: Anneau centrale ou CDO ................................................................................................. 11 Figure 9: Couronne extérieure ....................................................................................................... 12 Figure 10: Coupe schématique d'un cyclone tropical .................................................................... 13 Figure 11: Trajectoire type des cyclones à Madagascar ................................................................ 14 Figure 12: Représentation schématique de la structure de la MJO .............................................. 15 Figure 13: Représentation schématique des conditions de la phase El-Nino avec les anomalies 16 Figure 14: Précipitations convectives ............................................................................................. 20 Figure 15: Précipitations orographiques ........................................................................................ 21 Figure 16: Précipitations frontales ................................................................................................. 21 Figure 17: Système d'observation
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