WATER GLOBAL PRACTICE Public Disclosure Authorized Groundwater in Public Disclosure Authorized Pakistan’s Indus Basin Present and Future Prospects Lucy Lytton, Akthar Ali, Bill Garthwaite, Jehangir F. Punthakey, and Basharat Saeed Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized About the Water Global Practice Launched in 2014, the World Bank Group’s Water Global Practice brings together fnancing, knowledge, and implementation in one platform. By combining the Bank’s global knowledge with country investments, this model generates more frepower for transformational solutions to help countries grow sustainably. Please visit us at www. worldbank.org/water or follow us on Twitter at @WorldBankWater. About GWSP This publication received the support of the Global Water Security & Sanitation Partnership (GWSP). GWSP is a multidonor trust fund administered by the World Bank’s Water Global Practice and supported by Austria’s Federal Ministry of Finance, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Afairs, the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Afairs, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Afairs, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, and the U.S. Agency for International Development. Please visit us at www.worldbank.org/gwsp or follow us on Twitter #gwsp. About SAWI The South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI) is a multi-donor Trust Fund supported by the UK, Australia and Norway and managed by the World Bank. SAWI supports a rich portfolio of activities designed to increase regional cooperation in the management of the major Himalayan river systems in South Asia to deliver sustainable, fair and inclusive development and climate resilience. It does this through four complementary outcome areas: strengthening awareness and knowledge on regional water issues; enhancing technical and policy capacity across the region; dialogue and participatory decision processes to build trust and confdence; and scoping and informing investment designs. Its work, structured across three river basins (Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra) and the Sundarbans Landscape, spans seven countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan. Groundwater in Pakistan’s Indus Basin Present and Future Prospects Lucy Lytton, Akthar Ali, Bill Garthwaite, Jehangir F. Punthakey, and Basharat Saeed © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Please cite the work as follows: Lytton, Lucy, Akthar Ali, Bill Garthwaite, Jehangir F. Punthakey, and Basharat Saeed. 2021. “Groundwater in Pakistan’s Indus Basin: Present and Future Prospects.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@ worldbank.org. Cover design: Jean Franz, Franz & Co., Inc. Cover photos: (left to right) Jay Punthakey, SkycopterFilms Archives/Shutterstock.com, Francois Onimus/World Bank. Contents Acknowledgments viii Abbreviations ix Executive Summary xii Chapter 1: The Indus Basin Context 1 Key Points 1 Introduction 1 Notes 13 References 13 Chapter 2: Groundwater Uses in Pakistan’s Indus Basin 15 Key Points 15 Introduction 15 Groundwater Use in Agriculture 16 Domestic and Municipal Water Uses 20 Industrial Groundwater Use 24 Comparing Sectoral Uses of Groundwater 27 Notes 28 References 28 Chapter 3: Understanding the Groundwater Resource 31 Key Points 31 Topography and Rainfall 31 Aquifer Overview 32 Water Level and Salinity Trends in the Indus Basin 47 Groundwater Stresses 61 Groundwater Quality in the Indus Basin 74 Notes 83 References 84 Chapter 4: The State of Groundwater Management 89 Key Points 89 Introduction 89 Policy 90 Development Plans 92 Legal Framework 93 Institutions 96 Groundwater in Pakistan’s Indus Basin iii Groundwater User Groups 99 Monitoring Groundwater Resources in the Indus Basin 101 Notes 104 References 104 Chapter 5: Management Solutions 105 Key Points 105 Introduction 105 Institutional Reform 105 Basin Planning 109 Managing Groundwater Quality 117 Regulatory Instruments 117 Notes 119 References 119 Chapter 6: Conclusions and Recommendations 122 Key Points 122 Conclusions 122 Recommendations 123 Implementation 126 Appendix A: Details of Previous Groundwater Studies in Punjab and Sindh 128 Appendix B: Selected Borelogs in the Indus Basin 149 Appendix C: National Five-Year Plans and Institutional Roles for Groundwater 150 Appendix D: Implementing Recommendations 160 Boxes E.1. Snapshot of Indus Basin Aquifer Characteristics xvii 1.1. Groundwater Salinity Risks 11 2.1. Groundwater Use in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 20 3.1. A Detailed Look at Basement Structure of the Chaj and Rachna Doabs 34 3.2. Estimating Pumping in the Rechna Doab 68 3.3. Rechna Doab: Need for Managing Water and Salinity 71 3.4. Seawater Intrusion 72 5.1. Improving Groundwater Management to Enhance Agriculture and Farming Livelihoods in Pakistan 107 5.2. Skimming Wells and Salinity 115 iv Groundwater in Pakistan’s Indus Basin Figures E.1. Illustration of Changes in Groundwater Level over Time in a Typical Doab in Punjab xv E.2. Recommendations for Improved Groundwater Management in Pakistan xix 1.1. Pakistan Total Water Demand for 2015 and Projected for 2025 and 2050 4 1.2. Schematic Diagram of Indus Basin Irrigation System 8 1.3. Historical Rise in the Water Table in Punjab 9 1.4. Trend in Groundwater Use in Pakistan 10 B1.1.1. Salinity Risk Enhanced by Pumping 11 2.1. Increase in Number of Tube Wells in the Indus Basin 17 2.2. Percentage of Irrigated Area Served by Different Sources of Water 18 2.3. Yield of Major Crops in the Leading Agricultural Economies 24 2.4. Agricultural Water Productivity in Selected Countries 25 2.5. Projection of Industrial Water Demand in Pakistan for Three GDP Growth Rates 26 B3.1.1. Basement Structure for Rechna Doab 35 3.1. Cross-Section A’-A, through the Upper Reaches of Bari Daob, through Lahore and Kasur. 43 3.2. Cross-Section B’-B through Lower Reaches of Bari Daob through Multan and Lodhran 44 3.3. Cross-Section C’-C through Lower Indus in Qambar Shahdadkot, Larkana, and Khairpur Districts, Sindh 45 3.4. Cross-Section D’-D through Lower Indus in Coastal Districts of Thatta and Badin, Sindh 46 3.5. West to East Cross-Sections Showing Variation in Aquifer Thickness 47 3.6. Depth to Water Table for DLR Bores in Bari Doab 49 3.7. Groundwater Levels in the Khanewal and Sahiwal Divisions, Punjab, 1910–2010. 49 3.8. Depth to Water Table for DLR Bores in Ahmad Pur Sial, Jhang District 50 3.9. Depth to Water Table in Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad, and Sheikhupura 51 3.10. Expansion of the Cone of Depression for the 38-M Drawdown Contour in Lahore from 2007–11 51 3.11. Depth to water table and Electrical Conductivity for DLR bores in Rechna Doab 52 3.12. Depth to water table and Electrical Conductivity in Rechna Doab, June 2008 53 3.13. Conceptual Model of the Indus Basin (West to East) 58 3.14. Indus Basin Average Annual Water Balance 60 3.15. Groundwater Pumped as a Percent of Canal Water 66 B3.2.1. Average Estimated Pumping in Kharif and Rabi Seasons, 2008–13 68 B3.3.1. Salinity EC, October 2012, for 30- to 60-M-Deep Layer for Rechna Doab 71 B3.4.1. Interface between fresh and saline groundwater in coastal areas 73 3.16. Incidence of Water-Borne Diseases in Lower Sindh 78 3.17. Percent of Samples That Were Unsafe for Drinking Water in Sindh, KP, and Punjab, 2015–16 83 4.1. Historical Perspective of Groundwater Development and Management in the Pakistan’s Indus Basin 90 B5.2.1. Skimming Well Design: a) Single Strainer; b) Multistrainer 115 6.1. Recommendations for Improved Groundwater Management in Pakistan 127 Groundwater in Pakistan’s Indus Basin v ­­A.1. Evaporation from Bare Soil with Water Table at Various Depths 138 B.1. Selected Borelogs in Rechna Doab, Punjab 149 Maps E.1. The Indus River Basin xiv 1.1. The Indus River Basin 2 3.1. Surface Topography and Elevation of Base of Alluvial Aquifer 33 3.2. Location of Bores Used for Analysis of Aquifer Parameters and the Location of Doabs in the Pakistan Indus Basin 37 3.3. Transmissivity of Indus Basin Alluvium 38 3.4. Hydraulic Conductivity of Indus Basin Alluvium 39 3.5. Specific Yield of Indus Basin Alluvium 40 3.6. Location of Cross-Sections in the Indus Basin through Upper and Lower Sindh 42 3.7. Distribution of SMO Bores for Mapping Depth to Water Table and EC 55 3.8. Water Table Depth and Groundwater Salinity 56 3.9. Average Temperatures in Pakistan 62 3.10. Seasonal Precipitation in Pakistan 63 3.11. Seasonal Potential Evapotranspiration, Jun–Oct 2010–18 64 3.12. Location of Fresh and Saline Groundwater in the Indus Basin of Pakistan 75 3.13.