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The-Next-20.Pdf Содержание: Contents: Сергей Горьков: Sergei Gorkov: «Десять глобальных тенденций экономики будущего»............................................. 8 Ten global trends in the economy of the future.........................................................................116 Сергей Данкверт: Sergei Dankvert: «Продовольственная безопасность в ближайшие 20 лет»......................................18 Food security in the next 20 years ...................................................................................................126 Николай Дурманов: Nikolai Durmanov: «Кризис медицины и биологические угрозы».................................................................... 28 The crisis of medicine and biological threats...............................................................................136 Наталья Касперская: Natalya Kaspersky: «Новые угрозы в сфере информации»......................................................................................42 New threats in the information field..................................................................................................150 Игорь Лотаков: Igor Lotakov: «Доверие к бизнесу: слагаемые успеха завтрашнего дня»..................................... 50 Trust in business: a look ahead.............................................................................................................158 Дмитрий Медников: Dmitry Mednikov: «Перспективы аудитории цифровых медиа. Ближайшие 30 лет. IDM audience perspectives. The next 30 years: from the generation От „поколения адаптации“ к новой „формирующей аудитории“» ........................ 56 of adaptation to the new developing audience ..........................................................................164 Илья Сачков: Ilya Sachkov: «Информационная безопасность и лженаука. Версия 2037»................................64 Cyber security and pseudoscience. Version 2037..................................................................172 Максим Соколов: Maksim Sokolov: «Инновационные проекты транспорта будущего».........................................................74 Innovative projects of the future transportation.......................................................................182 Евгений Черешнев: Yevgeny Chereshnev: «Будущее цифрового мира глазами бионического человека» ............................. 82 The future of digital world through the BionicMan’s eyes...................................................190 Анатолий Чубайс: Anatoly Chubais: «Российская наноиндустрия через 10 лет».......................................................................... 88 The Russian nano industry in 10 years...........................................................................................196 Сергей Швецов: Sergei Shvetsov: «Модернизация системы пенсионных накоплений. Modernization of the pension savings system. Financial inclusion Финансовая доступность в цифровом измерении» .......................................................102 in the digital dimension............................................................................................................................... 210 Содержание: Contents: Сергей Горьков: Sergei Gorkov: «Десять глобальных тенденций экономики будущего»............................................. 8 Ten global trends in the economy of the future.........................................................................116 Сергей Данкверт: Sergei Dankvert: «Продовольственная безопасность в ближайшие 20 лет»......................................18 Food security in the next 20 years ...................................................................................................126 Николай Дурманов: Nikolai Durmanov: «Кризис медицины и биологические угрозы».................................................................... 28 The crisis of medicine and biological threats...............................................................................136 Наталья Касперская: Natalya Kaspersky: «Новые угрозы в сфере информации»......................................................................................42 New threats in the information field..................................................................................................150 Игорь Лотаков: Igor Lotakov: «Доверие к бизнесу: слагаемые успеха завтрашнего дня»..................................... 50 Trust in business: a look ahead.............................................................................................................158 Дмитрий Медников: Dmitry Mednikov: «Перспективы аудитории цифровых медиа. Ближайшие 30 лет. IDM audience perspectives. The next 30 years: from the generation От „поколения адаптации“ к новой „формирующей аудитории“» ........................ 56 of adaptation to the new developing audience ..........................................................................164 Илья Сачков: Ilya Sachkov: «Информационная безопасность и лженаука. Версия 2037»................................64 Cyber security and pseudoscience. Version 2037..................................................................172 Максим Соколов: Maksim Sokolov: «Инновационные проекты транспорта будущего».........................................................74 Innovative projects of the future transportation.......................................................................182 Евгений Черешнев: Yevgeny Chereshnev: «Будущее цифрового мира глазами бионического человека» ............................. 82 The future of digital world through the BionicMan’s eyes...................................................190 Анатолий Чубайс: Anatoly Chubais: «Российская наноиндустрия через 10 лет».......................................................................... 88 The Russian nano industry in 10 years...........................................................................................196 Сергей Швецов: Sergei Shvetsov: «Модернизация системы пенсионных накоплений. Modernization of the pension savings system. Financial inclusion Финансовая доступность в цифровом измерении» .......................................................102 in the digital dimension............................................................................................................................... 210 4 СЛЕДУЮЩИЕ 20 ЛЕТ Кобяков Антон Анатольевич Советник Президента Российской Федерации нформация, технологии, социум меняются со скоростью, которую человек пока еще не способен осознать и представить. Неумолимый прогресс ежедневно наполняет нашу жизнь новыми И понятиями. Однако, роботизация и искусственный интеллект новыми поколениями людей будут восприниматься, как естественное явление среды обитания и, наверное, им будет трудно понять, какой стресс испытывали их родители, когда пытались заглянуть в будущее и осмыслить масштабы грядущих перемен. Одиннадцать прогнозов от российских ученых, бизнесменов, государственных и общественных деятелей, представленных в этой книге – послание из индустриального мира в мир постиндустриальный. Через двадцать лет будет другая еда, лекарства, транспорт, права личности и информационная открытость - считают авторы лекций. Основой будущего бизнеса станет не производство, а идея. Идея, которая сможет дать потребителю новый уровень комфорта. Благодаря новым материалам и технологиям уйдет потребность в создании крупных производств. Их смогут заменить небольшие, но эффективные компании. Кто выиграет, а кто пострадает, когда общество откажется от низкотехнологичных и громоздких производств? И какие бизнес–модели станут более востребованными? Ответить на эти вопросы необходимо уже сейчас. Не менее важная тема – продолжительность и качество жизни людей, чьи потребности будут определять экономику и роль государства. По прогнозам, уже к 2050-му году юность будет продолжаться до 35 лет, взросление наступит в 50, а пенсия отодвинется далеко за 70. Если это справедливо, то как изменяться социальные обязательства перед долгожителями поколения «миллениалов», и что могут сделать сегодняшние 40-летние, чтобы подготовить «достойную старость»? Об этом размышляют ведущие экономисты России, имея на руках данные сегодняшнего положения дел. А специалист по биобезопаности предостерегает, что расчеты финансистов могут потерять смысл, если не позаботиться о создании антибиотика эффективного против новых супербактерий. Борьба за безопасное продовольствие и чистую воду может провоцировать геополитические конфликты, а сельскохозяйственные удобрения и новая энергетика могут стать областью международного сотрудничества и кооперации. Итак, книга «Следующие 20 лет» – это взгляд в Будущее, которое наступит, если о нем позаботиться сегодня. Приятного чтения и плодотворных размышлений. Ведущие бизнесмены, экономисты и политики предсказывают будущее 5 6 СЛЕДУЮЩИЕ 20 ЛЕТ Алексей Бобровский Главный редактор портала «Вести. Экономика» исатель Илья Ильф почти сто лет назад остроумно заметил, что в фантастических романах главным было радио. При нем должно было наступить счастье человеческое. «И вот радио есть, а счастья нет» – Пнедоумевал литератор. В следующие двадцать лет мир должен выйти из «цифрового средневековья», принять и признать искусственный интеллект, пересесть в экоавтомобили, принципиально поменять пищевые привычки и постараться не погибнуть от супербактерии. Лекторы форума Vestifinance складывают пазлы большой картины Будущего и приглашают вас к участию в этом увлекательном процессе. Двадцать лет – это намного больше срока службы современного автомобиля или смартфона, но для человека – вполне реальный вызов. Можно заключать пари
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