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Process and Outcome Evaluation of the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program

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Process and Outcome Evaluation of the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program FINAL PROJECT REPORT Process and Outcome Evaluation of the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program Prepared for: California Energy Commission Prepared by: RAND Corporation SEPTEMBER 2017 CEC-­‐600-­‐11-­‐004 For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1948 Prepared by: Authors From RAND Corporation From Sierra Research Lloyd Dixon James Lyons Tom LaTourrette From Advent Consulting David Galvan Jerry Bowers Charles Goldman From Katin Engineering Consulting Nidhi Kalra Bob Katin Christopher Nelson Flavia Tsang Paul Steinberg Agreement Number: 600-11-004 Prepared for: California Energy Commission Jim McKinney, Pierre duVair, Aida Escala Agreement Managers John Butler Office Manager Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Office John Kato Deputy Director Fuels and Transportation Division Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We acknowledge the Commission Agreement Managers (CAMs) for this project—Jim McKinney, Pierre duVair, and Aida Escala—for facilitating the evaluation by providing administrative data, project documents, and introductions to numerous California Energy Commission (CEC) staff. We also thank the CAMs for numerous other projects who met with us to discuss their projects and who responded to our requests for data. We are especially grateful to Elizabeth John, who led the effort to compile and send us administrative databases and project documentation for more than 300 projects. We are also indebted to senior Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program (ARFVTP) staff for meeting with us to discuss program strategy, implementation, and lessons learned. And we would like to thank Jean Baronas, Pierre duVair, Bill Kinney, David Nichols, and Matthew Ong at CEC for comments on the draft report. We also gratefully acknowledge the members of the project’s Evaluation Advisory Committee: David Greene from Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy at the University of Tennessee; Harry Hatry from the Urban Institute; Ivor John from Lloyd's Register Quality Assurance; Dan Kammen from the Energy and Resources Group and the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley; and Sonia Yeh from the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis. The committee provided valuable guidance and recommendations at several points during the evaluation, including reviewing the draft final report. We thank the experts at Stillwater Associates for their technical support of the in-depth project reviews and for compiling indicator data for the alternative fuels and fueling infrastructure markets in California. At RAND, Karin Liu of RAND’s Survey Research Group provided valuable advice on designing the instrument for the study survey and did an outstanding job pretesting and fielding it. Katie Loa analyzed the program investment plans and program opportunity notices. Jim Powers wrote a constructive peer review of the draft report, Keith Crane provided helpful advice during the course of the project, and Marjory Blumenthal, director of RAND’s Science, Technology, and Policy Program, provided much-appreciated comments on the draft report. Paul Sorensen, previously at RAND, played a lead role in putting the project together, designing the evaluation approach, and writing background documents on barriers to market viability. Martin Wachs, also previously at RAND, was instrumental in assembling the Evaluation Advisory Committee. Linda Theung skillfully edited the document. We thank them for their contributions. Finally, we would like to thank the 475 ARFVTP awardees, unsuccessful applicants, and potential applicants who completed a detailed survey about the program and the 38 awardees who participated in in-depth project reviews. Their input was essential to a comprehensive evaluation of the program. iii PREFACE Assembly Bill (AB) 118 (Núñez, Chapter 750, Statutes of 2007), created the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program (ARFVTP). The statute, subsequently amended by AB 109 (Núñez, Chapter 313, Statutes of 2008), authorizes the California Energy Commission (CEC) to develop and deploy alternative and renewable fuels and advanced transportation technologies to help attain the state’s climate change policies. The CEC has an annual program budget of about $100 million and provides financial support for projects that • develop and improve alternative and renewable low-carbon fuels • enhance alternative and renewable fuels for existing and developing engine technologies • produce alternative and renewable low-carbon fuels in California • decrease, on a full-fuel-cycle basis, the overall impact and carbon footprint of alternative and renewable fuels and increase sustainability • expand fuel infrastructure, fueling stations, and equipment • improve light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle technologies • retrofit medium- and heavy-duty on-road and nonroad vehicle fleets • expand infrastructure connected with existing fleets, public transit, and transportation corridors • establish workforce training programs, conduct public education and promotion, and create technology centers. The Energy Commission issued solicitation RFP-600-10-612 to provide technical support to the Energy Commission with evaluation, measurement, and verification of the ARFVTP. To be eligible for funding under RFP-600-10-612, the projects must also be consistent with the Energy Commission’s ARFVT Investment Plan, updated annually. In response to RFP-600-10-612, the RAND Corporation submitted application 1, which was proposed for funding in the Energy Commission’s Notice of Proposed Awards March 6, 2012, and the agreement was executed as 600-11-004 on August 21, 2012. The research was conducted in the Science, Technology, and Policy Program of RAND’s Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment unit. The findings should be of interest to the California State Legislature, the CEC, and other state and federal agencies that are involved in efforts to promote the development of new technologies and products. iv v ABSTRACT This report presents the results of a process and outcome evaluation of the California Energy Commission’s (CEC’s) Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program (ARFVTP), relying on quantitative and qualitative methods. For the process evaluation, we conclude the following: The process for developing the ARFVTP’s investment plan has been reasonable; CEC has targeted major barriers to market viability across the main fuel-sector types funded by the ARFVTP (hydrogen, electricity, diesel substitutes, gasoline substitutes, and natural gas and biomethane); the ARFVTP has been successful in soliciting proposals; the criteria and weights that the CEC used to evaluate award applications are appropriate, but there are some concerns about the amount of time required to review applications and execute agreements; there are both strengths and weaknesses in how CEC oversees grants once they begin; completing projects on time has been a challenge for many awardees; and awardees are largely achieving their projects’ most-central technical objectives. For the outcomes so far, we conclude that the ARFVTP has made considerable progress reducing many barriers to the market viability of alternative fuels and vehicles. We also find that the ARFVTP seems to have allowed awardees to proceed with projects they would not have undertaken otherwise; after completing their ARFVTP projects, awardees overwhelmingly indicated they had taken steps to continue to develop, market, install, or produce the funded product or technology; and on the workforce side, ARFVTP project grants supported some employment both in California and elsewhere and did result in some hiring for the projects. Stakeholder suggestions on ARFVTP investment priorities going forward vary by fuel type but generally call for continued program support. We also note that insufficient consumer awareness of, and knowledge about, alternative fuels and vehicles was one of the most frequently identified barriers to market viability across all fuel types and that the ARFVTP should not shy away from research, development, and demonstration projects simply because their outcomes can be difficult to quantify. Keywords: Alternative fuels and vehicles, program evaluation Please use the following citation for this report: Dixon, Lloyd, Tom LaTourette, David Galvan, Charles Goldman, Nidhi Kalra, Christopher Nelson, Flavia Tsang, Paul Steinberg, James Lyons, Jerry Bowers, Bob Katin. 2017. Process and Outcome Evaluation of the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program. California Energy Commission. Publication Number: CEC-600-11-004. RAND Corporation
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