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2017 State of Wind Development in the United States by Region April 2018

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2017 State of Wind Development in the United States by Region April 2018 2017 State of Wind Development in the United States by Region April 2018 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. 2017 State of Wind Development in the United States by Region Frank Oteri, Ruth Baranowski, Ian Baring-Gould, and Suzanne Tegen Suggested Citation Oteri, Frank, Ruth Baranowski, Ian Baring-Gould, and Suzanne Tegen. 2018. 2017 State of Wind Development in the United States by Region. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5000- 70738. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70738.pdf. NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report 15013 Denver West Parkway NREL/TP-5000-70738 Golden, CO 80401 April 2018 303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 NOTICE This manuscript has been authored by employees of the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC (“Alliance”) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 with the U.S. Department of Energy (“DOE”). This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content. Acknowledgments The authors thank the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office for funding the Regional Resource Centers, this report, and broader stakeholder engagement and education efforts such as the WINDExchange initiative. The authors also thank DOE’s Jocelyn Brown-Saracino, Maggie Yancey, Lillie Ghobrial, and Liz Hartman for their leadership and guidance. Thanks to the Regional Resource Centers for their work and contributions to this document: • Four Corners Wind Resource Center: Amanda Ormond, Sarah Propst, Sarah Wright, Karin Wadsack, Mitalee Gupta, Fletcher Wilkinson • Islanded Grid Resource Center: Suzanne MacDonald, Stephanie Nowers, Chris Rose, Brooks Winner • Midwest Wind Energy Center: Lisa Daniels, Dan Turner, Tom Wind • Northeast Wind Resource Center: Deborah Donovan, Benjamin Brown, Bob Patton, Jake McDermott, Diana Chace, Warren Leon, Val Stori • Northwest Wind Resource and Action Center: Diane Broad, Mia Devine, Michael O’Brien, Rachel Shimshak, David Wolf, Cameron Yourkowski • Southeast Wind Energy Resource Center: Paul Gayes, Mary Hallisey Hunt, Stephen Kalland, Katharine Kollins, Jonathan Miles. Thanks to Brian Smith and Daniel Laird from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for their review of this report. Also thanks to Corrie Christol and Bethany Straw who work to support our regional stakeholder engagement projects. i This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 4CWRC Four Corners Wind Resource Center BLM Bureau of Land Management BOEM Bureau of Ocean Energy Management BPA Bonneville Power Administration CAISO California Independent System Operator CNMI Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands DOE U.S. Department of Energy EIM energy imbalance market ETI Energy Transition Initiative GCAMP Georgia Coastal and Marine Planner IGRC Islanded Grid Resource Center IRP integrated resource plan JEDI Jobs and Economic Development Impacts JMU James Madison University kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt-hour MW megawatt MISO Midcontinent Independent System Operator MWEC Midwest Wind Energy Center NAWEA North American Wind Energy Academy NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NWRC Northeast Wind Resource Center NW Wind Center Northwest Wind Resource and Action Center NYSERDA New York State Energy Research and Development Authority ii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications PURPA Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act REopt Renewable Energy Planning and Optimization RFP request for proposals RPS renewable portfolio standard RRC Regional Resource Center SWERC Southeast Wind Energy Resource Center USFWS U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service iii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications Executive Summary Although the wind capacity installed by the end of 2016 is estimated, in an average year, to equate to 6.4% of electricity demand in the United States, wind energy has the potential to meet even more of our country’s demand for energy (U.S. Department of Energy 2017c). In 2016, the industry took a major step forward with the commissioning of the nation’s first offshore project, the 30-MW Block Island project in Rhode Island. Another exciting development in 2017 was wind energy becoming the largest source of renewable electric capacity in the United States (and the fourth largest overall) (American Wind Energy Association 2018). Additionally, corporate and other non-utility purchases of wind energy continue to influence expansion across the country. With more than 1,500 megawatts of power purchase agreements signed in 2016 and multiple new agreements signed in 2017 by companies such as Kimberly-Clark, Google, General Motors, Anheuser-Busch, Cummins, and JP Morgan Chase, this growing market enhances the long-term installation prospects for the wind industry moving forward. Despite this growth, continued expansion of wind energy development will be required to achieve the scenarios outlined in the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE)’s Wind Vision: 20% wind energy by 2030 and 35% wind energy by 2050. Researchers at DOE’s national laboratories have conducted analyses and determined that innovation in wind technology can have consequential implications for future wind power development throughout the United States, and it can impact the broader electricity system, lower electric system and consumer costs, provide potential environmental benefits, and expand the U.S. wind workforce (Mai et al. 2017). The wind industry and the DOE’s Wind Energy Technologies Office are addressing technical wind energy challenges, such as reducing turbine costs and increasing energy production and reliability. Turbine nameplate capacity, hub height, and rotor diameter have increased significantly. Turbines originally designed for lower wind speed sites have rapidly gained market share, and pending and proposed projects are continuing the trend of even-taller turbines as lower wind sites appear to be targeted (U.S. Department of Energy 2017c). This turbine scaling is significantly boosting wind project performance, contributing to low power sales prices. Wind power sales prices are at all-time lows, enabling economic competitiveness despite low natural gas prices. Analysts project that annual wind power capacity additions will continue for the next several years before declining, driven by the 5-year extension of the Production Tax Credit signed in December 2015 and the progressive reduction in the value of the credit over time (U.S. Department of Energy 2017c). Demand drivers also include corporate wind energy purchases and state-level renewable energy policies. At the same time, expectations for continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and lower near- term demand from state RPS policies put a damper on growth expectations, as do inadequate transmission infrastructure and competition from solar energy in certain regions of the country. Yet the potential for continued technological advancements and cost reductions enhance the prospects for longer-term growth, as does burgeoning corporate demand for wind energy and continued state RPS requirements. Given these diverse underlying potential trends, wind capacity additions—especially after 2020—remain deeply uncertain (U.S. Department of Energy 2017c). iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications Beyond these market trends, the Office also recognizes that human-use conflicts with wind energy can be challenging, depending on the proximity of proposed wind farms to local populations. As wind development expands, more information is becoming available on the local community impacts of wind deployment. However, the public and local decision- makers often cite a lack of scientifically credible information as an issue. In some cases, this information is available but not readily accessible; in others, the information is not conclusive. Where information does exist, it should be made readily available to the public in a user-friendly format. Continued and increased engagement at multiple levels will be needed given the expanding nature of
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