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Nextera Energy Inc. Revenue Decomposition

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Nextera Energy Inc. Revenue Decomposition Krause Fund Research 2 Spring 2021 NextEra Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NEE) Stock Rating: Utilities th April 16 , 2021 HOLD Analysts z Caleb Fitch Jerome Mays Guy Renquist Grant Wambold [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Investment Thesis Target Price: $85.47-$89.85 Drivers of Thesis: Model Prices • Two of NextEra’s largest subsidiaries, Florida Power and Light (FPL) DCF $87.66 and Gulf Power, are set to see large increases in demand for their services DDM $87.85 in 2021 and 2022. FPL and Gulf Power provide public electricity services to Relative PE $29.95 a large majority of the popular vacation destinations in Florida. As the vaccine Price Data rollout continues in the U.S. and the COVID-19 pandemic draws to a close, Current Price $80.94 safety concerns will diminish. As this happens, we expect Americans to 52-week Low $55.66 increase travel and head to NextEra’s rate-regulated service areas. This 52-week High $87.69 expectation is built into our model with combined revenue growth of 13% in $1 2021 and 6.7% in 2022 for both segments. Key Statistics • NextEra Energy Resources (NEER) will grow at an accelerated rate as Market Capitalization $158.76 B more businesses and consumers look for cleaner energy sources and the Shares Outstanding 1.96 B market for electric vehicle infrastructure expands. NEER is the largest EPS (2021E) $2.15 provider of energy sourced from the wind and sun in the World. NEER’s P/E Ratio (TTM) 54.0 attractive generating portfolio will draw in more customers who are looking Forward P/E Ratio 37.1 for electricity sourced from renewables. Additionally, NEER has already Forward Dividend $1.54 positioned themselves to take advantage of the shift to electric vehicles. We Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 1.73% see NEER’s revenue growing 9.27% on average over the next five years. Payout Ratio 94.59% Risks of Thesis: Operating Revenues (TTM) $17.997 B • The anticipated rise in interest rates could lead to investors selling their shares in NextEra, leading to a drop in share price. Utilities offer stable Financial Ratios cash flows to investors due to their consistent dividends. As rates rise, ROE 5.66% investors pull their assets out of utilities and into less risky bonds. Our model ROA 2.01% cannot account for this. Therefore, our share price may be off if rates rise. Debt/EBITDA 5.25x • Further delays in the economic recovery and vaccine rollout. If Americans Debt/Equity 1.07x hold off on travelling and the economy takes longer to recover than envisioned, our projections for growth could be considerably off-target. If this Company Description is the case, our valuation could be significantly off. Our sensitivity analysis NextEra Energy, Inc. is an energy shows that if 2021 revenue growth is as little as 2% off, our share price would drop around $9. infrastructure and electric power company. It operates through three main subsidiaries: Florida Power and Light (FPL), Gulf Power, Stock Performance and NextEra Energy Resources (NEER). FPL and Gulf Power are regulated electric utility companies located in the state of Florida that generate, transmit, and distribute electric power to their roughly 5.6 million retail and commercial customers. NEER is the world’s largest generator of renewable energy sourced from the wind and sun. The segment spans across North America and sells a full range of energy services to their various customers through the wholesale market. Source: FactSet Page | 1 the energy/utilities sector because demand for electricity Executive Summary increases with economic growth2. The U.S. saw a decrease in Real GDP of 3.49% in 2020. This was largely due to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 NextEra Energy operates both rate-regulated and unregulated pandemic. The Congressional Budget Office projects Real GDP utility companies across North America. Their diversified to grow 3.7% in 2021 and 2.6% from 2022 until 2025, on segments and generating capacity have made NextEra into the average3. Our estimates are in line with CBO’s projections. market leader in the utility industry. We are issuing a hold rating This increase in demand is mainly from industrial and on NextEra Energy’s stock with a target price range of $85.47 commercial customer accounts. These customers are producing - $89.85. This represents a 5.5%-11% increase above the the extra quantity of goods and services represented by real closing price on April 16th of $80.94. GDP growth and this new production often requires electricity. We believe the predicted economic climate and rise in real GDP will benefit NextEra. Elevated economic output will lead to Annual Real GDP projections more electricity consumption. Furthermore, the hike in housing 4% starts will enlarge NextEra’s customer accounts. Increasing 3% interest rates and prices of natural gas will lead to higher costs for NextEra. This will dampen earnings growth but NextEra’s 2% ability to pass on costs to their customers will soften the blow. 1% 0% NextEra’s segments all have great upside in the coming years 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 with strong positions in their respective markets and unique -1% competitive advantages. Florida Power and Light has large -2% growth potential through the expected population growth in -3% Florida and a return post-pandemic to normal tourism levels. 2020 saw a 34% decrease in visitors to Florida and the state is Source: CBO3 only just beginning to see its hotels and tourism hotspots revert to normal attendance numbers.1 Gulf Power is also going to NEE holds commercial and industrial accounts through their benefit from their exposure to the Florida economy. They could various subsidiaries. Commercial accounts represented 35% of 21 also see lower rates for customers if the rate case filed by FPL’s revenue in 2019 and 32% in 2020. Additionally, many of the customers of the subsidiaries under the NEECH umbrella NextEra passes and they are merged with FPL. NextEra Energy will see an increase in demand as well due to economic growth. Resources has positioned themselves to capitalize on the rising The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects importance of renewable energy generation, battery storage, commercial sector electricity consumption to rise .9% and and electric vehicles. With increasing investments into their industrial sector consumption to rise 1.2% in 20214. This core business and new areas they continue to develop value to increased consumption will carry on to 2022 and beyond as shareholders by placing themselves at the forefront of new economic output continues to rise. industry trends. This expected increase in real GDP- which results in higher NextEra is heavily exposed to Florida and their future success electricity consumption- will lead to more revenues being is tied directly into the state’s economy. FPL and Gulf Power’s brought in by NextEra and their subsidiaries in 2021 and the revenue growth depends on the state coming out of the rest of our projection period. pandemic and seeing our expected elevated demand for energy Housing Starts services. NEER operates in extremely competitive wholesale markets and will need to continue to innovate in order to stay Housing starts are an important economic indicator for the competitive and drive our projected revenue growth. With the utility sector because it represents the number of new homes emphasis on renewables for the future, NEER will begin to see being built each year. These new homes will need to be many other companies moving into their market space to try provided with electricity from local utilities. This leads to more and capitalize on the goals to reach zero-emissions. customer accounts and higher volume demand. Housing starts have been steadily increasing year-over-year Our hold recommendation is based upon the information since the last economic recession in 2008 and 2009. There were highlighted below and the outcome of our valuation models. approximately 1.38 million housing starts in 2020, a 7% increase from 20195. Currently, supply of houses and demand are at levels not seen in a long time. Demand is through roof as Economic Analysis Americans became to desire homes with more space while working remotely from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. We do not expect this demand to wane either. With work-from- Real GDP growth home being a viable option for consumers moving forward due Real GDP growth is the change in quantity of goods and to the societal impacts COVID-19 caused, consumers will services produced in an economy. Real GDP growth impacts continue to desire more spacious living arrangements. On the Page | 2 flip side, the supply of houses is at all-time lows. At the end of February, there were 1.03 million homes for sale which was the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 6 lowest level in data going back to 1982 . Housing starts are one 4.00 way to have supply meet demand. We project housing starts to continue to increase in the coming years at a strong pace. We 3.00 project housing starts to be around 1.45 million in 2021 and 1.65 million in 2022. Many other estimates are higher for 2021 2.00 but we believe low supply of labor and elevated prices of Percent 1.00 housing materials will hold down housing starts from their potential. As prices of materials fall to more normalized levels 0.00 and the labor supply increases, housing starts will boom in 2-12 2-14 2-16 2-18 2-20 2-13 2-15 2-17 2-19 2-21 2022.
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