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MASARYK UNIVERSITY Faculty of Social Studies Department of Political Science MASARYK UNIVERSITY Faculty of Social Studies Department of Political Science Master Thesis Russian Non-Linear Warfare Through the Lenses of Strategic Culture Bc. Michael Myklín Supervisor: Mgr. Josef Kraus Ph.D. UČO: 415006 Study Field: Security and Strategic Studies Year of Enrollment: 2016 Brno, 2018 Affidavit I hereby honourably declare, that I am the only author of the Master Thesis titled Russian Non- Linear Warfare Through the Lenses of Strategic Culture and that I used all the sources listed in the footnotes and bibliography section. In Brno, 27th May, 2018 …………………………………. Michael Myklín 2 Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to my family which supported me throughout my studies and to my marvellous girlfriend Veronica Šipošová who kept me fed and clothed during the writing of this thesis. To my supervisor Dr. Josef Kraus for his patience and insightful comments. To Daniel P. Bagge for providing me with obscure and infinitely useful literature and finally, to the club of friends of planer without which the process of writing would be unbearable and immensely more painful. 3 Anotace Diplomová práce se zabývá ruským přístupem k nelineárnímu vedení boje skrze koncept strategické kultury. Cílem práce je komplexní zpracování klíčových ruských konceptů v rámci strategické kultury, které mají největší podíl na současné podobě ruské teorie vedení války. Teoretická část práce se zaměřuje dekonstrukci pojmu hybridní války s cílem najít více odpovídající koncept, konkrétně teorii nelineárního vedení boje Tada Schnaufera. Na základě popisu a analýzy jednotlivých klíčových konceptů nalezených v ruské strategické kultuře (aktivní opatření, maskirovka, reflexivní kontrola, nový typ války, energetická zbraň) je v relevantních kategoriích zhodnocen jejich vliv na současnou ruskou vojenskou teorii. Klíčová slova: Hybridní válka, nelineární vedení války, informační válka, nepravidelné vedení boje, kybernetická válka, politické vedení boje, ekonomická válka, geopolitika, Rusko Abstract The master thesis deals with Russian approach to non-linear warfare through the concept of strategic culture. The goal of this work is complex processing of key Russian concepts of warfare within the strategic culture with major influence on contemporary Russian military theory. The theoretical part of the thesis focus on the deconstruction of the term hybrid warfare with the aim to find the more suitable concept, in this case, the theory of non-linear warfare by Tad Schnaufer. On the basis of description and analysis individual key concepts found within the Russian strategic culture (active measures, maskirovka, reflexive control, New Type Warfare, energy weapon) in relevant categories, their influence on contemporary Russian military theory is evaluated. Key Words: Hybrid Warfare, Non-Linear Warfare, Information Warfare, Irregular Warfare, Cyber Warfare, Political Warfare, Economic Warfare, Geopolitics, Russia 4 „It is a fundamental mistake to see the enemy as a set of targets. The enemy in war is a group of people. Some of them will have to be killed. Others will have to be captured or driven into hiding. The overwhelming majority, however, have to be persuaded. “ Frederick Kagan 5 Content Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 9 2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 10 3. Terminology ......................................................................................................................... 14 3.1. Hybrid Terminology of HW .......................................................................................... 14 3.1.1 Western Debate on HW ....................................................................................... 14 3.1.4 Tad Schnaufer´s Non-Linear Warfare ................................................................. 25 3.2 Categories of Non-Linear Warfare ................................................................................. 29 3.2.1 Conventional Measures ....................................................................................... 30 3.2.2 Irregular Measures ............................................................................................... 31 3.2.3 Information Measures ......................................................................................... 32 3.2.4 Cyber Measures ................................................................................................... 33 3.2.5 Economic Measures ............................................................................................ 34 3.2.6 Political Measures ............................................................................................... 34 3.3 Strategic Culture ............................................................................................................. 35 4. Non-linear Warfare in Russian Strategic Thinking .............................................................. 38 4.1. Russian Geopolitical Road to Non-linear Warfare........................................................ 39 4.2 Economic Measures: Geopolitics of Energy Resources................................................. 46 4.2.1 Other Means of Economic Warfare..................................................................... 53 5. Russian Military and Intelligence Doctrines and Non-Linear Warfare ............................... 54 5.1 Conventional Measures: ................................................................................................. 55 5.1.1 New Type Warfare .............................................................................................. 55 5.1.1.1 Evgeny Messner and Subversive Warfare............................................ 55 5.1.1.2 Vladimir Slipchenko and 6th Generation Warfare ................................ 58 5.1.1.3 Kartapolov´s New Type Warfare ......................................................... 59 5.1.2 Maskirovka .......................................................................................................... 64 5.1.2.1 Maskirovka in Soviet Era ..................................................................... 66 6 5.1.2.2 Maskirovka in Contemporary Russia ................................................... 67 5.2 Irregular Measures .......................................................................................................... 69 5.2.1 Active Measures .................................................................................................. 69 5.2.2 Active Measures in Soviet Era ............................................................................ 75 5.2.2.1 History of Soviet Era Active Measures ................................................ 75 5.2.2.2 Military Operations - Support to Insurgencies and Resistant Movements .......................................................................................................................... 77 5.2.2.3 Military Operations - Support of Terrorism ......................................... 79 5.2.2.4 Military Operations - Organised Crime ............................................... 81 5.2.2.5 Military Operations – Wet Operations ................................................. 82 5.2.3 Active Measures in Contemporary Russia .......................................................... 84 5.2.3.1 History of Active Measures in Contemporary Russia .......................... 85 5.2.3.2 Military Operations - Support to Insurgencies and Resistance Movements ....................................................................................................... 88 5.2.3.3 Military Operations - Support of Terrorism ......................................... 91 5.2.3.4 Military Operations - Organised Crime and other Non-State Actors ... 92 5.2.3.5 Military Operations - Wet Operations .................................................. 95 5.3 Information Measures: ................................................................................................... 97 5.3.1. Disinformation in Soviet Era .............................................................................. 99 5.3.1.1 Press Placement .................................................................................. 100 5.3.1.2 Forgeries ............................................................................................. 101 5.3.1.3 Clandestine Broadcasting ................................................................... 102 5.3.2 Disinformation in Contemporary Russia ........................................................... 103 5.3.2.1 Press Placement .................................................................................. 103 5.3.2.2 Forgeries ............................................................................................. 104 5.3.2.3 Clandestine Broadcasting ................................................................... 105 5.3.2.4 New Media ......................................................................................... 106 5.3.3 Reflexive Control .............................................................................................. 107 7 5.4 Cyber Measures .................................................................................................... 109 5.4.1 Cyber Activities in Contemporary Russia ......................................................... 109 5.4.1.1 Espionage, Sabotage and Attacks ......................................................
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