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NOAA Fleet Societal Benefit Study

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NOAA Fleet Societal Benefit Study FINAL REPORT NOAA Fleet Societal Benefit Studdy March 2018 Abt Associates Inc. Bethesda, Maryland Corona Environmental Consulting Louisville, CO Written under contract for the NOAA Offffice of Marine & Aviation Operations www..omao.noaa.gov Prepared by: Abt Associates Inc. Corona Environmental Consulting Prepared for: NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operations The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO) manages and operates NOAA's fleet of 16 research and survey ships and nine aircraft. Comprised of civilians and officers of the NOAA Commissioned Officer Corps, OMAO also manages the NOAA Diving Program and the NOAA Small Boat Program. NOAA Fleet Societal Benefits Study, Final Report Table of Contents Forward .................................................................................................................................................................................. i Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. vi 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Overview of Research Approach ............................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Report Organization ................................................................................................................................................. 5 2. Value of Products and Services Dependent on the NOAA Fleet ............................................................................ 7 2.1 Coral Reefs: Coral Status and Trends Report .......................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Sea Level Rise: Sea Level Rise Viewer ................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Bathymetry/Hydrographic Surveys: Nautical Chart Products ............................................................................... 11 2.4 Seasonal Forecasts: ENSO Outlook ....................................................................................................................... 12 2.5 Ecosystem Management: National Marine Sanctuary Conditions Reports ........................................................... 13 2.6 Fisheries Management: Fisheries Stock Assessment ............................................................................................. 14 2.7 Tsunamis: Short-term Inundation Forecasts for Tsunami Models ........................................................................ 15 2.8 Harmful Algal Blooms: Forecasts and Mitigation Capability (Gulf of Maine) .................................................... 16 2.9 Hypoxia: Hypoxia Watch (Gulf of Mexico) .......................................................................................................... 18 2.10 Ocean Noise: Ocean Noise Mapping ..................................................................................................................... 19 2.11 Hurricanes: Hurricane Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 20 2.12 Fleet Emergency Response Services ..................................................................................................................... 20 3. Monetized Benefits of Select Products and Services ............................................................................................. 23 3.1 Methodology for Estimating Value of NOAA Fleet ............................................................................................. 24 3.2 Coral Reefs: Coral Status and Trends Report ........................................................................................................ 24 3.3 Sea Level Rise: Sea Level Rise Viewer ................................................................................................................. 26 3.4 Bathymetry/Hydrographic Surveys: Nautical Chart Products ............................................................................... 27 3.5 Seasonal Forecasts: ENSO Outlook ....................................................................................................................... 29 3.6 Ecosystem Management: National Marine Sanctuaries Conditions Report .......................................................... 33 4. Cost-Effectiveness of NOAA Ships and Charter Vessels for Select Data Collection Efforts............................... 36 4.1 Marginal Cost of Using the NOAA Fleet .............................................................................................................. 36 4.2 Cost-Effectiveness Case Studies ............................................................................................................................ 37 4.3 Capacity, Availability, and Other Factors Affecting the Use of Charter Vessels ................................................. 42 5. Summary of Lessons Learned and Recommendations for Next Steps .................................................................. 44 5.1 Conclusions and Lessons Learned ......................................................................................................................... 44 5.2 Recommended Next Steps ..................................................................................................................................... 45 Appendix A. Value Chain Descriptions for Select NOAA Products Appendix B. Efficiency and Effectiveness of Using Contract Vessels Appendix C. Interviews with Charter Providers Appendix D. Acknowledgements NOAA Fleet Societal Benefits Study, Final Report Foreward: Interpreting the Value Estimates from the NOAA Fleet Societal Benefit Study NOAA managers and scientists routinely make difficult decisions about how to allocate public investments to study, protect and restore the nation’s oceans and coasts. One of the most important considerations in these decisions is the value that will be returned to the public. Thus, NOAA is often asked to demonstrate the economic benefits of its investments, preferably in dollar terms. Despite the uncertainty associated with such estimates, they provide evidence that investments are being managed to produce societal benefits and a basis for comparing benefits and costs. For some decisions, such as those involving public health or safety, economic considerations are secondary. However, even in these situations, managers need to make choices that involve tradeoffs – decisions that call for economic analysis. The NOAA Fleet Societal Benefit Study provides important new evidence about the value of NOAA’s ships to the nation and how the cost of using these assets compares to that of contract vessels. Major results from this study include: “value chains” describing how data from the fleet support products and users; estimated annual dollar values of selected products; and mission-specific cost comparisons between NOAA and contract ships. The study, funded by NOAA and completed by Abt Associates in 2017, was conducted to support NOAA’s on-going efforts to modernize the current NOAA fleet. As the senior NOAA staff managing this project, we concluded, after receiving the final report and fielding questions about the value estimates in particular, that some additional context on interpreting the study results would be useful. We therefore added this Forward to provide additional comments on methods, to introduce some similar recent value estimates for NOAA ships, and to reinforce the challenges of estimating economic value for public goods, even when methods, assumptions, and sources are fully described. Key considerations when interpreting the Societal Benefit Study findings The following topics are particularly important considerations regarding the methods and sources used in the Societal Benefit Study and the overall interpretation of the value estimate results. Data denial: The model used by NOAA to set priorities across its observing systems provided important inputs to this analysis, particularly for estimating the degree to which the quality of final products would be affected by the absence of data from NOAA ships. This model is designed to minimize bias towards any one system and provides estimates of the impact of data denial that are based on extensive input from the subject matter experts who also use the data to generate final products. However, these estimates of the impact of data denial have not been confirmed via “denial of data experiments.” Denial of data experiments are commonly used for this purpose but were beyond the scope of this study. Further, the role that could be played by the private sector in responding to any future diminished capacity of the NOAA fleet was not assessed. Any such role would result in private sector costs and benefits whose analysis was also beyond the scope and resources of this study. Use of existing data: All estimates of value for the Societal Benefit Study were based on existing data and past research. And although the products selected for the Study was based, in part, on
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