V24, N6 Thursday, Sept. 20, 2018

Donnelly’s Supreme ‘September surprise’ Allegations set in motion political minefield for incumbent, both parties By BRIAN A. HOWEY – An obscure col- lege professor, one Christine Blasey Ford, has provided the 2018 version of the political lightning bolt. In 2016 the “October surprise” by FBI Director led to the presidential upset of the century. Last Friday, Ford provid- ed the “September surprise” when she accused Supreme Court nominee of sexual assault at a drunken high school bash 35 years ago. Watching all of this on the fulcrum is U.S. Sen. , who a week ago Sens. and Lisa Murkowski in the fold, and his was a plausible yes vote for what appeared to be a fait ac- resume and life story seemed a movie screenplay for his compli nominee. Kavanaugh had asserted enough respect ultimate job on the high court. for case precedent on Roe v. Wade to keep Republican Continued on page 3 Walorski’s bellwether By JACK COLWELL SOUTH BEND – Congresswoman predicts that national TV will focus first on ’s 2nd District on election night. “We’re a bellwether for the country,” Walorski told “I think we’re gonna do much supporters at the grand opening of her campaign head- quarters in Mishawaka last week. better than anyone thinks The Republican incum- bent, seeking a fourth term, said because the economy is so good, that results in her race with Dem- and people do like the job I’m ocratic challenger Mel Hall “will dictate what happens the rest of doing.” the night. And they’ll dictate that - President Trump, telling Republicans have swept. There was no Democratic wave.” Hill.TV there will be a Her enthusiastic support- ers cheered those predictions. ‘red wave’ in November One of the predictions Page 2 wouldn’t be disputed by Hall. He also are the of America.” sees the district as a bellwether. Citing key campaign themes, With Indiana results in early Walorski stressed her legislative sup- – we are often the first state declared port of measures for veterans and by the networks in presidential elec- her joining in bipartisan introduction tions – it’s likely that the 2nd District of legislation, now approved in the will be in national focus soon after the House, to help seniors to continue to polls close. live at home. Howey Politics Indiana Democrats, however, are While not mentioning Hall, predicting and counting on a wave to she warned of what Democratic gains WWHowey Media, LLC 405 color the network maps with a lot of in Congress could mean, saying there Massachusetts Ave., Suite blue and to designate enough Demo- is a “progressive Left in this country 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 cratic victories to capture control of that is operating and growing expedi- www.howeypolitics.com the House. tiously, taking a message of pure, 100 If one of the first projec- percent socialism in this country.” tions is that Walorski has won handily, That message should be ham- Brian A. Howey, Publisher as she did in her two prior reelection mered home, she told her supporters, Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington races, it could indeed signal that the Cameron Carter, Editor blue wave was just a trickle. Joel Weyrauch, Editor If the projection is that Wal- Mary Lou Howey, Editor orski has lost in a Republican-flavored district where President Trump won Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo big, it could signal instead that the Jack E. Howey, Editor wave was a tsunami. Also possible, Emeritus perhaps likely, is that the race will be too close to call quickly. Because of that possibility, Walorski and Hall both Subscriptions are concentrating on trying to get out HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 the vote, or at least their votes. HPI Weekly, $350 Walorski urged her supporters HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly at the headquarters, many of whom Ray Volpe, Account Manager have been involved in making phone when they encounter anyone thinking, calls or knocking on doors, to work “How can this possibly matter?” 317.602.3620 even harder because of the stakes in She praised campaign email: [email protected] the election. volunteers, saying they have made “a “We’re talking about monu- record number of phone calls already, mental, mountainous issues,” she said. and [they] just got through Labor Contact HPI “We’re talking about values, Day.” [email protected] right? We’re talking about patriotism. And it’s a GOP team effort, Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 We’re talking about moving our coun- Walorski said, “making sure that Mike Washington: 202.256.5822 try forward economically.” Braun is our next senator,” defeating Business Office: 317.602.3620 During her speech, Walorski Sen. Joe Donnelly, the Democratic mentioned neither Hall, her opponent, incumbent. On the other side, too, it’s nor President Trump by name. a team effort, with the Donnelly and © 2018, Howey Politics But she hailed the Trump Hall campaigns working together. Indiana. All rights reserved. agenda, particularly on the Republican Election night? “It’s going to Photocopying, Internet forward- tax bill, saying, “You got a president start here and roll through the rest of ing, faxing or reproducing in who led the way and signed it.” the country,” Walorski predicted. She checked off a “we did it” Maybe it will. And the TV any form, whole or part, is a list: “Roll back regulations. Check. Tax networks will focus early on the 2nd violation of federal law without reform. Check. Take care of veterans. Congressional District of Indiana as permission from the publisher. Check.” they seek to project which way it’s Also, Walorski said, “We have rolling. v a commander-in-chief who is seri- ous about our nation leading globally Colwell has covered Indiana again and to minimize the threats. To politics over five decades for the stand up and not be ashamed that we . Page 3

thoroughly reviewed by the Senate Judiciary Committee, Kavanaugh, from page 1 and weighed against Judge Kavanaugh’s decades of public Kavanaugh’s nomination came in early summer, service, sterling record on the bench, outstanding personal and yet here Donnelly and fellow vulnerable Democrats reputation, and his unequivocal denial of the allegations.” , and seemed poised to go This morning on WIBC’s Tony Katz Show, Braun called for with the flow, confirm Kavanaugh as they had with Justice a confirmation vote next week, but he did not reaffirm his . There was a minor risk of alienating the left- support for the nominee. ward wing of their bases, but even the most progressive Over the next week or so, danger lurks every- liberal knows that Donnelly retiring back to Granger and where for Donnelly, Democrats and Republicans and Sen. in Washington would do nothing to help President Trump, who seemed remarkably cool on Monday future causes. when he suggested a “full process” to air Ford’s allegation At this writing, Capitol Hill was in order, though the president and watch in suspense at a called his nominee “as high a quality potential Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill individual as you’ll ever see.” Miss- redux next Monday. This past Mon- ing were incendiary Trump tweets day, Ford’s attorney told the “Today when he feels aggrieved, suggesting Show” she would testify. Some 24 to some that Kavanaugh might be as hours later, that had morphed into disposable as Bush43’s bizarre ap- her call for an FBI investigation as pointment of Harriet Miers 13 years opposed to what would be a classic ago. Miers gave way to reliably con- “he said/she said” with not a whiff of servative Justice Samuel Alito (with validation. Chairman Chuck Grassley as his sherpa), and the gave Ford a Friday deadline today. talk was that Kavanaugh’s demise President Trump urged her to testify could give way to another conserva- on Wednesday. Ford has not said she tive darling, 7th Circuit Judge Amy won’t testify. CNN reported today an Comey Barrett, like Donnelly a Notre FBI probe of Anita Hill 23 years ago Dame graduate. took three days. So an FBI probe isn’t likely to push the Kavanaugh stands on a trap door Kavanaugh confirmation vote into the lame duck session with time ticking away. Within minutes or hours of this of Congress, which would collide with a potential majority writing, he could easily be toast without the jam. change in January, depending on the verdict of voters in a But if Trump and the wily Senate Majority Leader referendum on President Trump on Nov. 6. Mitch McConnell don’t fold, then ol’ “Sleepin’ Joe” could be In the wake of Ford’s allegations that failed to sur- facing Ambien nights. face after several FBI background checks as Kavanaugh’s Jim Manley, a former Democratic Senate leadersh- career coursed through the Bush43 and then hip aide, told Reuters that Ford allegations could give Don- the D.C. District court, Donnelly’s conundrum was how nelly & Company a reprieve: “For those Democrats up for seriously to take an 11th hour breech. re-election from states that Trump carried, they now have On Tuesday, Donnelly sought time, saying, “The absolutely no reason to vote for Kavanaugh. Period. End of allegations made against Judge Kavanaugh are serious and story. They have all the cover they need.” merit further review. Given the nature of these allegations, Michael Tomasky of the Daily Beast thinks other- and the number of outstanding questions, I believe the wise: “I’m not sure it’s that simple. Assuming Judge Kava- Judiciary Committee should hold off on Thursday’s sched- naugh’s nomination is not withdrawn and the Republicans uled votes.” He found Braun on a similar page, agree- continue to fight for him, these three Democrats and pos- ing that dual testimony from Kavanaugh and Ford was sibly one or two others will still find themselves in a tough prudent, given the lifetime appointment at stake. Braun position. In fact, if a couple of Republicans defect from went on to praise Kavanaugh, saying, “I support Senator Judge Kavanaugh, these Democrats will be in an even Grassley’s decision to have these 11th hour allegations tougher spot than before. Imagine this hypothetical. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, the two Republican senators Page 4 who are under the most pressure to oppose confirmation, self in a bad spot, but on the other hand, he was 17 so he decide to do so. That takes Judge Kavanaugh down to 49 may not have been thinking at all.” votes. Game over. Except maybe not. At that point, Repub- If Ford’s story becomes believable (but ultimately licans, far from accepting defeat, will surely start aiming unvalidated unless the FBI starts probing), then the fire at the three Democrats.” Kavanaugh trap door opens and he spends the rest of In this scenario, McConnell doubles down, the his career on the D.C. circuit. Donnelly escapes a tough right-wing money pours into Indiana (and there may be situation. But if Ford stumbles, or it somehow becomes $10 million to $20 million already aimed at Donnelly in clear that her charge against Kavanaugh is not true, then what will be wall-to-wall assaults through Nov. 6), and Mc- Donnelly is in a tough spot. Democrats will look like they’re Connell schedules a Halloween vote. pulling the proverbial fast one, a legendary stall for time. Tomasky picks up his narrative: “That will consti- Of course, where have seen that stunt before? tute enormous pressure on the red-state Democrats. If (We’re looking at you, Sen. McConnell). they sense their opponents are gaining steam, they may So this is a volatile, unpredictable, wing-to-wing well think, ‘Why should I cast a vote that’s going to cost event, with tailwinds easily turning to head, the final chap- me my seat? Especially when even if we defeat Judge ters unknown at this writing. Stay tuned. Kavanaugh, we’re just going to get someone else who’s every bit as conservative?’ If one of them moves to a Donnelly runs Jacob Sexton ad pro-Kavanaugh position, it’s likely that all three will move. In the Republican primary, Braun had one of the Here’s why. There is a agreement among minority most effective ads in modern Indiana politics, his “twin parties in the Senate that in such situations, no one wants cardboard cutouts” that sent Reps. and Todd to be the 50th vote. The lone senator who provides the Rokita to the dustbin. Donnelly’s campaign is airing the 50th vote can be blamed and reviled. But if all three move most effective ad of the general cycle thus far. It highlights together, then one of them can’t be singled out as having his authoring the Jacob Sexton Military Suicide Prevention cast the dreaded 50th vote.” Act. The ad features Sexton’s salt-of-the-earth parents Jeff This all comes with conventional wisdom revealing and Barb Sexton of Farmland. He’s a truck driver, she’s (via tossup NBC/Marist and polls) that thus far a Gold Star mom. They lost their son, Army Spc. Jacob Donnelly has weathered Hurricane Mike. He’s in a similar Sexton, in 2009 when he shot himself in a Muncie movie polling situation to his 2012 race against Richard Mour- theater during a 15-day leave from his Indiana National dock. The difference is that GOP babysitters were keeping Guard unit in . He had also been deployed in Mourdock’s crazy speak in the back of his mind, until it Iraq. Sexton’s father talks in the ad about his son’s death crawled through his lips during the final debate. Braun is and praises Donnelly for the legislation that requires the far more disciplined, suggesting a tossup race to the end. At this point a Kavanaugh/Ford session of sworn testimony next Monday brings other dangers for everyone. It would be a complete mid-term wild card. Republicans risk fueling the “pink wave,” with a record number of congressional, Senate, gubernatorial and legislative female candidates nationwide and here in Indiana. But Repub- licans tend to win cultural wars, right Mike Dukakis? So these allegations have become the “September surprise.” Wonder what October will bring? A reliable HPI source observes: This is not typical of situations we have seen recently. So far, no additional women have come forward suggesting serial predatory behavior from Kavanaugh. That doesn’t mean a single incident, or even several in high school, might not have U.S. military to keep mental health records of soldiers. occurred. But if no one else surfaces, if no one comes Jeff Sexton said, “To lose a son because of the war is one forward saying he was at this party or that this was typical thing, but to lose a son to the war is another.” Barb Sexton behavior for him then Ford might not be believed, espe- can be seen saying that she wears her Gold Star “above cially if she does not testify. And Kavanaugh seems like the the heart.” The couple and a sibling appear arm in arm kind of guy who has been planning a big career for himself with Donnelly. Jeff Sexton says near the end of the ad, for quite some time. Guys like that sometimes feel entitled “Joe Donnelly is a lifesaver.” If you’re one of those subur- as I am sure many students at his school did. That argues ban female voters, this ad is effective. for, “it happened.” Or sometimes guys like that are incred- ibly careful and avoid any kind of compromising situation NRSC up with 3 ads v. Donnelly like crazy high school parties. His mom was a judge which The NRSC is up with its first ads of 2018 in In- causes me to further question whether he would put him- Page 5 diana, debuting two new TV ads and a radio ad. TV and worried (Slodysko, ). Groups that typi- radio versions of “No to Joe” feature President Trump call- cally back GOP candidates, such as the Indiana Chamber ing out Donnelly for constantly voting against the Trump- of Commerce, are sitting on the sidelines. Braun’s recent Pence agenda at his recent rally in Evansville. The Presi- three-stop “solutions” tour — spread out across three days dent highlights Donnelly’s votes against the GOP tax cuts, — was ridiculed by Democrats, who pointed to Donnelly’s repeal and replace of Obamacare and enhanced vetting for seven-day, 40-stop trek in August. And while Braun, a mul- refugees and reminds that a vote for Mike Braun timillionaire businessman, took out $6.4 million in loans to is a vote to Make America Great Again. A second TV ad, fund his primary campaign, he also publicly groused about “Fire Drill” brings to attention to what the NRSC calls Don- the cost. Now, with less than two months until the election, nelly’s “do-nothing” record in Congress. he has yet to purchase air time for October, while Donnelly has outspent him by almost double on TV and radio since Donnelly endorsed by Jewish Council June, records show. That’s cause for concern, according Donnelly was endorsed last week by the Jewish to a half-dozen GOP officials, operatives and commenta- Democratic Council of America. “JDCA stands with candi- tors familiar with the race, most of whom spoke to The dates who align with the Jewish community on a range of Associated Press on condition of anonymity to offer candid domestic and foreign policy issues,” said Halie Soifer, JDCA assessments of the contest. They say Braun appears to be executive director. “The margin of victory in any of these coasting at a time when he ought to be investing more of races will be razor thin, and the Jewish vote could serve as his own money and rallying the base. the decisive factor in the outcome of the race.” FiveThirtyEight gives Donnelly 75% chance Braun campaign underwhelming GOP FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Donnelly a 76.1% As Democrat Joe Donnelly barnstorms the state chance of winning, projecting Donnelly with 51.5% of the in a used RV, it is Republican Mike Braun’s own sleepy vote, Braun with 46.1% and Libertarian Lucy Brenten with campaign that’s leaving Republicans underwhelmed — and 2.4%. Horse Race Status: Tossup. v

says, “Hey kids! If you drink underage and are assaulted at The politicization a party, and afraid to report the crime as your friends may get in trouble for drinking, don’t worry! If you report or call an ambulance, you are all are indemnified from the drink- of sexual assault ing offenses.” Now, your parent or guardian very well may By CHRISTINA HALE punish you, but you cannot be punished by the govern- INDIANAPOLIS – Bad things happen when un- ment for underage drinking in this instance. derage kids drink to excess without supervision. Perhaps We passed this law because it was truly needed, you’ve seen it yourself or parented a teen who learned right here in happy, wholesome Indiana where binge drink- the hard way that gathering ing parties and assaults and injuries happen somewhere your friends to slam dad’s vodka every day. when he’s on vacation is a good Teens do not report these crimes for a variety way to get expelled. Or for to- of reasons. It can take years for victims of assault to feel day’s youth, your phone confis- emotionally prepared to report a crime, particularly if it is cated. likely to be very public and controversial, and especially if it A few years ago, I col- has the potential to be politicized. laborated with Sen. Jim Merritt Many adults, perhaps even you, can relate to the to amend the Lifeline Law to experiences described by Judge Kavanaugh’s high school include assault. This law is in classmate Mike Judge, who wrote a book called “Wasted: place for exactly these kinds Tales of a Gen X Drunk,” detailing his life of parties and of parties, where teenagers binge drinking while attending Georgetown Preparatory drink and possibly take drugs to School. excess, and injuries result. No one wants to call the police, Of course, Mike Judge is also now cited by Dr. and young people have died from a variety of injuries over Christine Blasey Ford as a witness to an alleged assault by the years, from fisticuffs at beach parties on the shores of Kavanaugh at such a party. There were a lot of those kinds Lake Michigan to falling down the stairs in Central Indiana. of parties in the 80’s. And there were a lot of cases like this Sometimes assaults of a sexual nature hap- one we will never hear about. It is our collective respon- pen at these parties as well. Republicans and Democrats sibility to create an atmosphere where victims feel safe to all voted unanimously to pass a law that now essentially report without negative consequences. Just because you find her report to be politicized Page 6 does not render it untrue. You may disagree with the in a timely manner, and so law enforcement can properly timing, how it was reported, or the implications for the intervene. appointment process, but that does not excuse an alleged Will these events change the vote for Judge Kava- assault. Such allegations need to be worked through the naugh? Doubtful. However, the less than gracious way the criminal justice system, rather than the court of public victim has been treated could also have negative lasting opinion. And reports should not be leaked without the effects. v express permission of those involved. Just ask the victims involved in the Curtis Hill case. Hale is a former state representative from India- We need victims reporting alleged assaults when napolis and was the 2016 Democratic lieutenant they happen so they can access the services they need governor nominee.

dates for offices chosen by the people have long been a Walorski, Banks evade staple of American democracy. The give-and-take before real people informs and enlightens the citizens watching and listening. Challengers can question an incumbent’s the ‘debate dodge’ stances. Incumbents can rebut wild assertions and explain By BRIAN A. HOWEY their votes. Those exchanges inform the audience — the INDIANAPOLIS – There’s still a debate dodge by voters. Those voters could raise plenty of questions for Republicans, and not just in Northern Indiana. Both Reps. Bucshon. His stances on issues simmering right now and Jackie Walorski have agreed to debates would be enlightening. Does he favor another round of with Democrats Courtney Tritch tax cuts proposed by House Republicans, known as Tax and Mel Hall. Reform 2.0, which would add $627 billion to the federal But in , deficit? Does he agree with Trump that a possible govern- in the 6th CD and ment shutdown would be “great” if Congress fails to fund U.S. Reps. and federal operations by the end of this month? Does he are rebuffing favor another stop-gap funding measure? Does he sup- Democratic challengers Jeanine port House resolutions that would implement independent Lee Lake, William Tanoos and . From the Pence citizen commissions to determine political districts instead perspective, Vice President built the foundation of the current party gerrymandering practice? of his political career on his ability to debate. For brother The Tribune-Star editorial concluded: “His an- Pence, not so much. swers, and those by Walorski and Hall will debate on Tanoos, would make for a live television at the WSBT-TV and WNDU- lively, informative debate. TV studios without in-person audiences, Instead, the people of said Max Harris, Hall’s campaign manager. the 8th District have lost Walorski told the South Bend Tribune’s that opportunity. That is Editorial Board Monday that she also would so, unless Bucshon re- agree to a live televised debate at WNIT- considers and decides to TV, the South Bend-based public television debate — as he should.” station. Harris said the two debates will be Indiana Demo- in October, but the dates weren’t con- crats describes it as a firmed yet on Monday. “debate dodge” and Banks will debate Tritch on WANE- noted that it extends to TV on Nov. 1. General Assembly races. But the Watson campaign said The party cited Sen. Jim that Hollingsworth isn’t even responding to Tomes, Sen. Andy Zay, debate invitations. “Hollingsworth couldn’t Rep. Sally Siegrist, Rep. even be bothered to respond to a group Bob Heaton, Rep. Peggy of students who want to participate in the Mayfield, Rep. Jeff Elling- process,” said Brian Peters, Watson’s cam- ton, Rep. Chris May and paign manager. Rep. Cindy Kirchhofer Bucshon was criticized by the as refusing to debate. Terre Haute Tribune-Star editorial board, Reps. Larry Buchson, Trey Hollingsworth and Greg Chairman John Zody said, which wrote: “Debates between candi- Pence (top) are refusing to debate Democrats William ”It’s just the beginning. Tanoos, Liz Watson and Jeannine Lee Lake. Page 7

I’m positive more Indiana Republicans will come down opposed Mike Pence in Indiana over and reli- with Debate Dodge Fever. It’s about showing up to work gious freedom laws, have poured $12 million into back- and Republicans seem to think they aren’t accountable to ing Democrats, making their combined contributions the Hoosier taxpayers. Until they believe they are, they’ll do seventh largest chunk of cash donated to either party this everything they can to hide from Hoosier voters.” cycle (). The Simon sisters, as these members of Indiana’s most famous business family are called around Congress Indianapolis, are still relatively unknown figures on the national stage. But their turn to big-league giving, mostly 9th CD: Watson assails Trey on PACs to help Democrats retake the Senate, comes after years of Democrat Liz Watson launched her first general donations to progressive nonprofits such as Planned Par- election campaign ad in the Indianapolis market, assailing enthood and the Anti-Defamation League, and as Demo- U.S. Rep. Trey cratic donors have gone into hyperdrive after the election Hollingsworth of President . for reneging on a 2016 stance of Trump predicts GOP will hold Congress not taking PAC President Trump doubled down on his confi- money. “It was dence about the midterm elections, saying in an exclusive all a lie,” Watson interview with Hill.TV on Tuesday that he liked his party’s says, looking chances given the growing economy. “I think we’re gonna into the camera. do much better than anyone thinks because the economy “Over 80% of is so good, and people do like the job I’m doing,” Trump, Trey’s money who has talked about the possibility of a “red wave” for came from Wall Street, insurance and coprorate special the GOP this fall, told Hill.TV in the Oval Office interview. interests. And then Trey voted to take away health care for Trump also noted his triumph in a crowded GOP primary, millions and he wrote a bill to protect payday lenders.” She which few in politics saw coming. “I had just beaten 17 said, “I don’t take corporate money. When I vote, you’ll people, including the Bush dynasty. I then beat the Hillary know it’s for you.” Horse Race Status: Likely Holling- Clinton dynasty. You can give me credit for Bernie Sanders sworth. and all, because I was — ‘cause I was part of it, but you know. So, I beat the Bush dynasty, the Clinton dynasty, Pences raise $450K at DC fundraiser 17 people, and I never left center stage once, you can Vice President Mike Pence and his brother, Indi- check. I never left center stage, meaning I had the lead in ana congressional candidate Greg Pence, raised about Republican primaries from day one,” he said. $450,000 at a political fundraiser in Washington, a cam- paign adviser said (Sikich, IndyStar). The event was host- Statewides ed at the offices of the National Restaurant Association, a powerful lobbying group that supports tax deductions for Lawson schedules ‘candidate schools’ restaurants and opposes certain labor initiatives such as With Russian election assaults continuing on the increasing the minimum wage. About 75 people attended U.S. election process, Secretary of State Connie Lawson the luncheon, including Congressman Luke Messer. The announced this morning she will be hosting “candidate fundraiser benefits Greg Pence’s campaign and his political schools” in Terre Haute, Evansville, Jeffersonville, Fort action committee, as well as the Great American Commit- Wayne, Elkhart, Valparaiso, Lafayette and Indianapolis tee, which is Mike Pence’s political action committee, and from Sept. 20-27. “Candidate Schools help new candidates the National Republican Congres- sional Committee, according to Marty Obst, senior political adviser to the vice president and director of the .

Simon sisters give $12 million to Dems A pair of shopping-mall scions from Indiana might seem like unlikely champions of the Democratic resistance. But sis- ters Deborah Simon and Cynthia Simon-Skjodt, who have for years Page 8 understand the basics of cybersecurity and campaign appointed to the position in 2012 and then won reelection finance, while providing a refresher to veteran candidates,” in 2014. “We need new leadership in state government,” Lawson said. It will also bring about scads of earned me- Harper said during a telephone interview with The Herald dia in every market as she wages a reelection campaign Bulletin on Thursday. “I’m tired of one party controlling against Democrat Jim Harper. We would not be surprised if state government and we need someone in leadership Harper enrolls in every session. from my generation.” Horse Race Status: Safe Lawson.

Harper hopes to end GOP hold Nation It has been almost three decades since a Demo- crat has been elected Indiana secretary of atate, but Jim Bloomberg ponders run as Democrat Harper hopes to reverse that trend. The last Democrat to Michael R. Bloomberg is actively considering a win the statewide office was Joe Hogsett in 1990 (de la campaign for president as a Democrat in 2020, concluding Bastide, Anderson Herald-Bulletin). Harper, 35, is a lawyer that it would be his only path to the White House even as in Valparaiso working in a law firm with his father and two he voices stark disagreements with progressives on defin- brothers. His mother and stepfather are judges in Porter ing issues including bank regulation, stop-and-frisk police County. His mother is a Republican and his stepfather is a tactics and the #MeToo movement (New York Times). Democrat. In 2016, Harper lost to incumbent Republican Bloomberg, 76, a billionaire media executive and former Ed Charbonneau for the 5th District seat in the Indiana New York City mayor, has already aligned himself with Senate, 60 to 40% margin. This year, Harper is running Democrats in the midterm elections.v against incumbent Republican Connie Lawson, who was

rier & Press offered three dates for debate: Oct. 22, Oct. When candidates 24, and Nov. 1. “This is a basic part of the democratic process,” said Tanoos about his disappointment that Dr. Bucshon declined. fear the people Bucshon spokesman Andrew Hansen told the By BRIAN A. HOWEY Courier & Press, “Based on his ongoing direct engagement NASHVILLE, Ind. – If you envision a career in with Hoosiers and deep public record, voters in the 8th Congress, there are several aspects of the job you have to District are familiar with Dr. Bucshon’s strong record of ac- accept: You work 15 to 16 hour days and weekends, you complishments on their behalf and where he stands on the have to raise big bucks, and, once upon a time, you had to issues, and he does not see the utility in debates leading meet with your constituents. up to the election.” Even when they’re angry, fearful or contrarian. To Bucshon’s credit, he’s conducted several town There used to be another hall sessions over the past year and has found angry, part of the job description in the agitated and contrarian constituents. But while his town TV age of politics: You should be halls could be emotional, the folks were testy but peaceful. willing to debate your opponent, Hoosiers tend to be that way. and show up to various forums Watson campaign manager Brian Peters told me sponsored by civic groups like that Rep. Hollingsworth “has turned down about a dozen the League of Women Voters, groups now. He has turned down two city chambers of schools, or the Rotary Club. commerce, local newspapers, community groups, col- But here in the 2018 mid- lege students, the list goes on and on. It would be comi- terms, we find a number of Re- cal if this election wasn’t so important. They aren’t even publican incumbents or nominees pretending to consider invites now, they are just flat out ducking the debates. ignoring everyone.” Peters said Hollingworth skipped an Democratic 8th Congres- Indianapolis health forum, but was seen heading into a sional District nominee William Tanoos became the latest nearby Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse. to find an incumbent Republican congressmen unwilling to Hollingsworth did schedule one town hall ses- match ideas and wit on a public stage, in front of TV cam- sion in Scottsburg last winter and Watson decided to show eras and radio mics. He joins 6th CD nominee Jeannine up with supporters. The freshman Republican abruptly Lee Lake and 9th CD nominee Liz Watson in alleging that cancelled, citing a “security concern.” U.S. Reps. Larry Bucshon, and Trey Hollingsworth won’t “My opponent hasn’t held a single town hall and, debate along with 6th CD nominee Greg Pence. in fact, cancelled the one and only town hall he was sup- Tanoos said that WNIN and the Evansville Cou- posed to hold when I announced I was going,” Watson said. Was there a threat? “I worked very hard to run that Page 9 down. I certainly wasn’t go- banned audio record- ing to show up with my sup- ers, at one point telling porters if that was the case a high school student, because I wouldn’t want to “No one tells me how put anyone in harm’s way. I to run my office.” He could find no evidence.” lost to a Pence, the brother year later. of the vice president, isn’t I was doing town halls, debates with then U.S. Rep. Joe or even media interviews. Donnelly at a Kokomo Apparently be believes town hall on a sul- the name is as good as a try night in 2009 as punched ticket. the Tea Party gained Why would these steam. It was moved Republicans duck debates outside to accommo- and town halls? Because date an angry, agitated their political consultants are advising them not to ex- and contrarian crowd. I even loaned Donnelly my shades, pose themselves. Hoosier Republicans drew the maps in but the real political pros know how to explain, commis- 2011, and in my latest election forecast, seven of the nine erate, console and deflect. Donnelly survived the night Republicans are in my “safe” category. They’re essentially and won reelection the following year despite his vote for cinches for reelection mostly by the way the maps were Obamacare. drawn. Hollingsworth and Rep. Jackie Walorski are heavy Not all Republicans are fearful. Walorski is favorites. going to debate Democratic challenger Mel Hall. Rep. Jim So a savvy political consultant will say: Endure Banks will debate Courtney Tritch on Nov. 1. Republican a couple of news cycles of bad headlines as opposed to Mike Braun will do two statewide televised debates with making the kind of blunder 2012 Republican Senate candi- Sen. Donnelly in October. date did in his race against Joe Donnelly They must realize that one of the saddest aspects that cost him any chance of winning. of participatory democracy is when a public servant or The consultants will point to a Bloomington town wannabe becomes fearful of and, in the final analysis, hall U.S. Rep. conducted in 2009 when he disrespectful of the people they want to lead. v Page 10

improved infrastructure and funding early education. Merritt joins Delph, The “Democratic wave” is hard to gauge at this point. Having surveyed a handful of polls in last week’s edition that suggested President Trump is losing indepen- Ford on vulnerable list, dent and moderate voters, it might be easy to read that as translating into potential Democratic gains in Indiana. but super majority safe Trump’s approval in Indiana was 47% in a recent NBC/ Marist Poll. By BRIAN A. HOWEY But while Trump may be a referendum in congres- INDIANAPOLIS – When the primary election dust sional level races, and certainly in the U.S. Senate race settled in May, our long-term forecast for here, there isn’t a lot of evidence that will translate to races was that Democrats would need the kind of tidal down ballot races, which occurred during the LBJ landslide wave akin to 1964 or 1974 to claw back into power. in 1964 and the 1974 Republican debacle stemming from With less than 50 days President Nixon’s Watergate scandal and subsequent resig- before the general election, we nation. find three Republicans – Mike Gov. Eric Holcomb’s approval has been 20 points Delph, Jim Merritt and Jon Ford higher than his negatives, the jobless rate at 3.4% is at a – truly vulnerable. Factor in near historic low, and wages have finally begun to perk up, the so-called “suburban female while employers find it hard to find enough of the workers vote” that characterizes Delph’s they need. Marion/Hamilton County district and the Merritt district in Indianapolis and the twin SDs 45 and 46 in the Jeffersonville/Clark County area within the Louisville suburbs where Sens. Ron Grooms and Jim Smith both won tight races in 2014, there doesn’t appear to be enough races in play for Democrats to make meaningful gains. Sen. Smith is retiring, and joins another open seat, SD26 being vacated by State Sen. Doug Eckerty , in the handful of districts that appear to be in play. In that race, Anderson Fire Chief Dave Cravens ap- pears to have a shot at a pickup for the super minor- ity party. Delph told HPI on Wednesday morning, “I think we’re in pretty good shape quite honestly. Went up on digital. We’re preparing to go up on TV real soon,” he said. “We have an aggressive direct mail plan. We continue to go door-to-door. The response has been real good. The only reason this seat is in play is the president and our Senate candidate are under-performing in this district.” That reference was obviously to President Trump, where national polls show him underwater with independents, moderates and educated female voters. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s PAC has been doubling down on Mike Braun appearing Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. campaigning with SD31 Democrat with Trump at the MAGA rally in Evansville, evidence Derek Camp in his race against State Sen. Jim Merritt. that he is still trying to turn out the Republican base. As our analysis said last week, that could be pushing Holcomb raised some controversy with his call for away the suburban voters that Delph and Merritt need. Attorney General Curtis Hill to resign in early July, and his Sources tell HPI that President Trump is also decision to raise trucking tolls on the . extremely unpopular in Merritt’s district. And that could be But the open Joe Zakas seat in Elkhart/St. Joseph County a factor in the Louisville suburb races in SD 45-46, though appears to be a Republican lock with businesswoman Republican sources seem less animated about losing those Linda Rogers, and we don’t see any other northern Indi- seats than the two Indianapolis/Carmel seats. ana race in play. J.D. Ford and Chris Gambill in SD38 are running So on the whole, Republicans in Indiana appear to on issues like providing living wages, redistricting reform, be solidly on the “right track,” and that may be enough to Page 11 withstand the impacts of a Trump referendum. the Republican nature of this district should hold for the Senate Republicans have a 41-9 super majority. majority caucus. Horse Race Status: Likely Zay. At this writing, we believe Democrats have an opportu- SD22: Republican: Sen. Ron Alting. Demo- nity to pick up between two and five seats, depending on crat: Sheryl Shipley. Analysis: In 2014 Alting ran unop- whether a Democratic wave develops and the GOP base is posed with 16,051 votes. Indiana Democratic Chairman suppressed. There aren’t enough races in play to suggest John Zody told Lafayette Journal & Courier columnist Dave Democrats can break the GOP’s super majority hold. Bangert that Alting’s seat is “winnable.” Bangert explained, Worth keeping an eye on in the context of Indiana “This definitely will be Alting’s biggest challenge in a long Senate races is the high school sexual assault controversy time. Sherry Shipley is serious about her campaign, which surrounding Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. was born out of frustration with Rep. and the A blow-up of dueling testimony and President Trump’s post-Trump election days.” But local sources tell HPI that response could bring about what Delph calls the “silent while Shipley is working hard, there isn’t much evidence majority” that is subterranean at this point (as it was in at this point that Indiana Democrats are active here. “She the home stretch of the 2016 campaign). Delph believes is going to be hard-pressed to beat Ron Alting,” Bangert many Trump voters aren’t actively engaged in social media told HPI on Wednesday. “I know you’ve asked about things and are under-sampled in polling. So the Kavanaugh “Sep- like cold beer and other things that have been in Alting’s tember surprise” could yield a twin in October. control, but I don’t think those will really drive this elec- So here is our second forecast for the Indiana tion. Alting remains a popular and present guy around his Senate, subject to evolution and change in the coming district.” Alting and Shipley won’t have a traditional debate six weeks. These include races in the “Likely” to “Tossup” at this point, but they did do a joint interview with WBAA range. All others are deemed “Safe” for the incumbent. radio at a miniature golf place in Lafayette.” Horse Race SD11: Republican: Linda Rogers. Democrat: Status: Likely Alting. Ed Liptrap. Analysis: Rogers upset State Sen. Joe Zakas SD25: Democrat: Senate Minority Leader Tim 66-33% on May 8. In 2014, Zakas ran unopposed, carry- Lanane. Republican: Zaki Ali. Analysis: There are still ing 19,924 votes. Rogers, 66, who owns Juday Creek Golf rumblings that Lanane has gotten sideways with African- Course and Nugent Builders in Granger appears to be in Americans on the west side of Anderson after defeating good shape to retain this seat. She faces Liptrap, a South Anderson Councilwoman Tami Dixon-Tatum with 65% in Bend cabinet-maker and a U.S. Navy veteran. He is for the the primary, including 64% in the city of Anderson. “I’m legalization of medicinal marijuana and decriminalization, absolutely pleased with the outcome,” Lanane told the and is a public school advocate. We’ve included this seat Anderson Herald-Bulletin. Dixon-Tatum told the Herald- because it is open, but this is a very Republican district Bulletin she will support Lanane in the fall. But Herald- and should hold for the majority caucus. Horse Race Bulletin political reporter Ken de la Bastide said that Status: Safe Rogers. there are signs of a revolt on Anderson’s west side, with SD15: Republican: Sen. Liz Brown. Demo- some African-Americans talking about backing Ali. “That crat: Kathy Zoucha. Analysis: Sen. Brown defeated Jack will make it a little tougher,” de la Bastide said. In 2014, Morris 15,101 to 10,482 four years ago. She faces Zoucha, Lanane easily defeated Libertarian Robert Jozwiak, 15,560 a Fort Wayne special education teacher with a bachelor’s to 5,458. This time he faces African-American attorney Ali, degree from IPFW. She ran for a House district seat in who brings some name ID into this race with past adver- 2016, but lost to Republican Rep. Dave Heine, R-New tising for his law practice. This is a Democratic district, but Haven. Zoucha picked up the FOP endorsement this week, Lanane faces a more prominent Republican, so while he but we still believe Sen. Brown is a strong favorite. Horse enters as a heavy favorite, this is one district we’ll keep an Race Status: Safe Brown. eye on. Horse Race Status: Likely Lanane. SD17: Republican: Sen. Andy Zay. Democrat: SD26: Open (Sen. Doug Eckerty retiring). Gary Snyder. Analysis: Republican State Sen. Jim Banks Republican: Madison County Councilman Mike Gaskill. ran unopposed in 2014 with 20,013 votes in what is a very Democrat: Anderson Fire Chief Dave Cravens. Analysis: Republican district. Upon Banks’ election to Congress, Zay Cravens defeated Muncie businessman Dave Ring 66-33%, won a caucus to replace him and faces former Libertarian while Councilman Gaskill topped Commissioner Owens in Snyder of Huntington. Zay received some negative public- the GOP primary 56-44%. Eckerty was unopposed in 2014, ity about postings and is refusing to debate Sny- drawing 22,329 votes. Craven will have a money advan- der. The former Libertarian has tried to capitalize on the tage heading into this race, but the key question is wheth- alcohol reform and marijuana legalization issues, but there er Gaskill will get support from the Madison County GOP. is little evidence he is finding any kind of traction to make It’s been a somewhat tortured relationship, with Gaskill ap- this a competitive race. We’ve included this race because pointed to the county council in 2014, only to be defeated this is Zay’s first Senate race before the broader electorate. that November. He returned to the council in the 2016 Without an emphatic Democratic wave, there is virtually no election. There’s been a long-running feud between Gaskill chance this seat will flip and even if there is such a wave, and Republican Chairman Russ Willis, who backed Owens Page 12 in the primary. Willis did not have a good primary with the top targeted race.” One fundraiser included Carmel most of the candidates he backed losing. Most observers Mayor Jim Brainard, suggesting that Delph has been able believe this is a potential pickup for Democrats, but it will to close ranks. But one observer believes that could have not be easy. So this is one race where a Democratic wave, been prompted by what has been described as the “Car- or Republican vote suppression, could have an impact. mel/Fishers rivalry” and we’ve not seen other mayors who Horse Race Status: Tossup. backed Meyer coming on board with Delph. Delph told HPI SD29: Republican: Sen. . Demo- that he helped Brainard in a option income tax battle with crat: J.D. Ford. Analysis: Delph seems to be the most Fishers. “I helped him out,” Delph said, saying the mayor vulnerable Republican, with a Democratic poll last month once joked he was so grateful he would build a statue of showing Ford up by 9%. the senator in one of Carm- Delph acknowledged el’s many roundabouts. This he is in a fight for his is the lone Republican-held political life, telling HPI district that on Wednesday, “We carried over Donald Trump have a slight lead in this in 2016 and Delph said district. At the end of that both President Trump the day it’s going to be and Senate nominee Mike about turnout and who Braun are under-performing can turn out their base in his district. Delph has a vote.” He expressed wide grassroots network concerns that the GOP and he hasn’t lost a race chairs in Hamilton and since the 2002 conven- Marion Counties don’t tion floor secretary of state have a plan for “turning race. Delph hasn’t taken out the Republican vote.” a position on hate crimes Complicating Delph’s that Gov. Eric Holcomb is challenge is that Marion advocating and that could County Chairman Merritt help Ford turn out the more is in an intense reelec- friendly suburban vote. This tion campaign. Ford has is another race where any already begun running semblance of a Democratic TV ads. His first is a wave and/or GOP vote sup- bio ad, that talks about pression could bring about how he is the first in his a flip.Horse Race Status: family to go to college. Tossup. Ford says in a voiceover: SD31: Re- “There’s nothing more publican: State Sen. Jim rewarding than work- Merritt. Democrat: Derek ing for my community. Camp. Analysis: Several I’m running for the Senate to bring good paying jobs to knowledgeable sources are telling HPI that this has turned our state, fix our roads and bridges, and strengthen early into a tossup race, with Merritt holding a “low single education so our young people can build a bright future digit” poll lead. This is reflective of the suburban vote right here in Indiana.” This is a rematch from 2014 when that President Trump has alienated, giving Democrats like Delph won 15,140 to 12,744. Delph just won a bruising Camp a shot at winning independent and female votes. primary battle over Corrie Meyer, 58-42%. Delph withstood Several sources tell HPI that Trump’s approval in SD31 is more than $200,000 in an advertising blitz that included well below the 47% statewide. Merritt told HPI Wednesday $100,000 in late money from some heavy-hitting individual afternoon, “We polled about a month ago. What we found donors and business groups, as well as an array of influen- is if you know Jim Merritt you’re going to vote for him in tial district mayors and former officeholders conspicuously the 60%. If you don’t know him, you’re open to another backing Meyer. Delph has had to host several fundraisers, candidate. Our hard reelect was good, but not excellent. suggesting he spent most of his $250,000 war chest in the We’re on our second mail piece today and we’re going to primary. “We had nearly $300,000 in negative advertising have seven. We’re working hard. I’ve asked people to put dropped on us,” Delph said. “We went back to my base out yard signs. I’m really confident we’re going to do OK donors. There is no question the fundraising in the fall has and win. I haven’t seen any TV buys by my opponent and been a bit slower. It’s starting to pick up. I’ve got a couple I haven’t seen any direct mail.” Camp lives in Lawrence, of big donors I haven’t closed the deal on, but I will. The is a Purdue graduate as well as a small businessman who Senate Majority Caucus has made it very clear this will be has worked at an Indianapolis law firm “to help strug- Page 13 gling families get back on their feet and become financially Marine who did two tours of combat duty in Iraq, enlist- stable.” He leads a state-wide youth civic organization ing in December 2001 after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. that has seen record growth in membership throughout Garten is a small businessman. Perkins is a retired teacher Indiana. Merritt was unopposed for reelection four years and served 20 years on the Jeffersonville City Council prior ago, getting 18,414 votes. But this is a Democratic county, to being appointed to fill the Clark County Commissioners and this is a district where a Democratic wave and angry seat vacated by Mike Moore after Moore became Jeffer- suburban female voters could turn out. Camp is campaign- sonville mayor in 2012. This is another district where that ing on reforming legislative maps to prevent gerryman- female suburban vote could help a Democrat like Perkins dering and creating living wages for workers. Merritt is win. He might need a wave in order get this seat to flip to Marion County Republican chairman and is preparing a the Democrats. Horse Race Status: Tossup. 2019 Indianapolis mayoral run against Mayor Joe Hogsett, SD46: Republican: Sen. Ron Grooms. Demo- so Democrats have incentive to turn out and, potentially, crat: Anna Murray. Analysis: Sen. Grooms won reelection defend Hogsett from his most credible challenger. Hogsett in 2014 with a 16,950 to 13,168 win over Chuck Freiberger has yet to declare for reelection, but we are not detect- in a rematch. Murray is a Jeffersonville attorney running ing other Democrats preparing campaigns in his absence. for office for the first time. She is running on workforce Horse Race Status: Leans Merritt. and infrastructure issues. Sen. Grooms is a pharmacist SD38: Republican: State Sen. Jon Ford. with a degree from Butler University and has served two Democrat: Chris Gambill. Analysis: Sen. Ford pulled stints on the Jeffersonville City Council between 1984 and off one of the big upsets in 2014, defeating Sen. Timothy 2010, the year he was first elected to the Senate. This Skinner 13,585 to 12,580. It was the closest Senate race is a competitive district in a region of the state that has of the cycle and one of the true battleground districts. gradually gone from Democrat to Republican. But like Gambill, who several other suburban seats we’ve won a three-way described above, this could be a dis- Democratic pri- trict impacted by a Democratic wave mary with 71% or if Republicans decide to sit this of the vote, has one out. The overlaying 9th CD race decades of ex- could also have an impact, as will perience in law Sen. Donnelly, who might help cre- enforcement, ate more Democratic turnout. Horse as legal advi- Race Status: Leans Grooms. sor to the Terre SD47: Republican: Haute Police Sen. . Democrat: Department, as Nicholas Siler. Analysis: Houchin a drug forfeiture pulled off the most emphatic upset attorney, and of 2014, defeating former Senate Mi- as a special trial nority Leader Richard Young 21,395 deputy for the to 15,419. This is a district that has rapidly evolved from a Clay County prosecutor. Gambill raised $18,626, while his Democratic river country stronghold to the GOP. Houchin two primary opponents raised no money. Local sources is ambitious, waging a campaign for the 9th CD in 2016, say the general perception is that Ford has been an ef- losing to U.S. Rep. Trey Hollingsworth. She is considered fective senator, but, like Delph, he represents a district a party rising star and her husband, Dustin, is Washington with considerable Democratic constituencies, in Gambill’s County prosecutor. Siler of Leavenworth is an attorney case in Terre Haute. Gambill must turn out the Democratic with a private practice in West Baden Springs. He has vote and hope that it trumps Ford’s strong support in Clay been in private practice since 2005 and previously served County precincts. Gambill is running a TV ad with him as counsel for the Indiana Department of Child Services, saying in a voiceover: “Around here people don’t want to representing the department in all counties of the 47th know about your politics, they want to know you can get Senate District. This is another outlier district we’re watch- things done. As an attorney, I’ve helped working families ing in case a strong Democratic wave develops. Siler’s search for solutions to life crises. I’m running for state sen- history with DCS is also interesting. Gov. Holcomb released ate because it’s time for Indianapolis to invest in communi- the DCS report in June, and we’ve seen little evidence that ties like ours with better jobs and higher wages.” Horse legislative races are going to turn on DCS issues. Horse Race Status: Tossup. Race Status: Likely Houchin. v SD45: Republican: Chris Garten. Democrat: Jeffersonville Councilman John Perkins. Analysis: This is Publisher’s Note: Next week, we’ll update our Indiana an open seat, vacated by the retiring State Sen. Jim Smith, House forecasts. Howey Politics Indiana is your most com- who defeated Democrat Julie Berry 19,827 to 16,994. prehensive source of district-by-district congressional and Garten is a Scott County native from Lexington, a former General Assembly analysis. Page 14

activists who see pork as a fundraising target. USDA shielding farms The Market Facilitation Program (MFP) will allow the Farm Service Agency (FSA) to provide payments to corn, cotton, dairy, hog, sorghum, soybean, and wheat from tariff impacts producers starting Sept. 4. For anyone who is not a farmer By LINDA CHEZEM or a lender to the farmer, the MFP is the least interesting MARTINSVILLE – Recent developments out of the part of the announcement. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) contained The Food Purchase and Distribution Program good news on several issues. Secretary Perdue announced will purchase up to $1.2 billion in commodities unfairly more details of how the USDA targeted by unjustified retaliation in a reboot of an old plans to assist farmers in re- program to place food in the hands of the hungry. USDA’s sponse to trade damage from Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) will administer the unjustified retaliation by foreign purchase program. The USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service nations. (FNS) will distribute the purchased food through nutrition In his comments, Sec- assistance programs such as The Emergency Food As- retary Perdue summarized the sistance Program (TEFAP) and child nutrition programs. reasons why the President For those who have been critical of the misuse and fraud should be given some negotiat- involving “food stamp” programs, the food purchase and ing space. “President Trump has distribution program may offer some safeguards and allow been standing up to China and the food to feed children and those who need it. Feed- other nations, sending the clear ing kids food seems like a good idea for a government message that the United States program. What would be a really great result is to couple will no longer tolerate their un- the food with nutrition and preparation education, but one fair trade practices, which include non-tariff trade barriers should not get too optimistic. and the theft of intellectual property.” Despite the naysay- The part of the announcement that provides hope ers in the Washington, D.C. area, the outcomes might for increased trade growth is an adaptation of the Foreign benefit all sectors of the US economy, both consumers and Agricultural Service’s (FAS) Agricultural Trade Promotion producers. Our trade principles should be balanced, free Program (ATP). Some $200 million in additional funds will and fair. be used to develop foreign markets for U.S. agricultural For years, from Argentina’s default to World Trade products. Again, optimistically, this part of the program Organization decisions, I had questions about United will help U.S. agricultural exporters identify and access States and our bland acceptance of grossly unfair trade markets new to their exports. The adverse effects of other practices from other countries. China has been outra- countries’ restrictions on U.S. exporters can be mitigated geously open in stealing our intellectual property, but cer- by expanding agricultural markets to a wide swath of the tainly not alone in those activities. Anyone who has paid globe, so that there is not an unhealthy dependency on attention to university research knows of “thumb drive” any specific country. When an exporting country is focused incidents in cutting edge laboratories and, for agriculture on one or a few countries as markets, its bargaining power at least, stolen samples from the research fields. may be compromised easily. Free trade should and can Surely, anyone who purchases consumer goods is include fair trade for producers in the United States. aware of foreign counterfeit goods of popular brands and As the USDA’s response to the trade issues the knockoffs of other products that are imported in the was being announced, a lesser known and less critiqued U.S. If someone doubts the preceding sentence, they can USDA agency supported by tax dollars, the U.S. Depart- just go stand on about any street corner in Washington, ment of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Institute of Food D.C., and buy their Gucci or Hermès handbag. For men and Agriculture (NIFA), turned its attention to broader there are ties and shoes and watches, etc. domestic needs, by seeking direction from the American The general aims for the use of the $12 bil- “stakeholders.” NIFA wants to become informed about the lion by USDA programs, consistent with our World Trade emerging needs and opportunities in food and agricultural Organization requirements, are outlined below. This an- sciences through the “NIFA Listens: Investing in Science to nouncement does not violate rules of trade by unfair trade Transform Lives” initiative. The use of the condescending practices and it helps get food in the hands of those who term “stakeholder” is irritating because few federal-income need it here in the U.S. It harkens back to the purpose of taxpaying members of the public who really comprise the other programs in years past. stakeholders will actually voice their thoughts. Neverthe- Even better is news that the payout from the less, undaunted, NIFA Acting Director Tom Shanower USDA funds will benefit Indiana agriculture. Soy appears stated, “We invite our stakeholders, scientists, and or- to be a big winner. I hope to see good payouts for pork ganizations from across the U.S. agriculture system and producers who work hard to be good neighbors. The pork beyond to provide their input,” And, however optimistically, people are enduring unfair attacks around Indiana from he added, “These sessions provide a chance for any inter- Page 15 ested party to help ensure NIFA’s research, education, and a critical, compelling need because it is high risk and there- extension investments effectively and efficiently support fore, the type of research work where the use of tax dollars the long-term prosperity and global preeminence of U.S. is legitimate. Surveys, focus groups, and some epidemiol- agriculture.” ogy – not so much. Correlation doesn’t equal causation. So dear taxpayers, these listening sessions are It is the babble gobble (not just in research) that eats up your opportunity to provide feedback on these questions: our tax dollars. Research that does not even produce as “In your field, what is the most-needed break- much common sense as the Farmer’s Almanac is not worth through in science/technology that would advance your the swap of tax dollars. We can stop funding it at no loss. agricultural enterprise?” When voodoo science is funded and touted as though it “When considering all of agriculture, what is is science that creates new knowledge, it is time to give the greatest challenge that should be addressed through “feedback.” NIFA’s research, education, and extension?” Aren’t you struck with curiosity about the research “What is your top priority in food and agricultural failings and why policy and law cannot rely on one or two research, extension, or education that NIFA should ad- studies? A review of the Social Sciences Replication Project dress?” by the nonprofit Center for Open Science (COS) in Charlot- If, after consulting with one’s accountant, one tesville, Virginia is attention-grabbing. In this effort, many learns that there are business reasons that may make the collaborators came together to check published scientific lit- expenses of an in-person trip tax deductible, here are the erature. They found that a large fraction of published stud- four regional in-person listening sessions sites and dates: ies do not yield the same results when done a second time. Oct. 11, Hartford, Connecticut (RSVP by Thurs- A good explanation is available at http://www.sciencemag. day, Oct. 4); Oct. 18, New Orleans, Louisiana (RSVP by org/news/2018/08/generous-approach-replication-confirms- Thursday, Oct. 11); Oct. 25, Minneapolis, Minnesota (RSVP many-high-profile-social-science-findings. by Thursday, Oct. 18); Nov. 1, Albuquerque, New Mexico No, the world, let alone the United States, does (RSVP by Wednesday, Oct. 25) not need more social science surveys asking loaded ques- It is rather irksome that there are no in-person tions about things that are designed to get the researcher sites close to Hoosiers but we can wield the mighty key- more study money. How many studies have you read that board if we pay attention. NIFA Listens website is a one- conclude saying more research is needed? stop informational hub that is promised to keep you up to Yeah, send me money. v date on the sessions. Each session is scheduled to begin at 8:30 a.m. and end no later than 5 p.m. Live webcast Chezem is a former Indiana Appeals Court judge will be available for each session, transcribed, and made and is a Purdue and Indiana University faculty mem- available for playback. Session attendees must register via ber. She writes on agriculture and legal issues. NIFA Listens website. In addition, written comments may be provided electronically through the stakeholder input form on the website or emailed by NIFAli- [email protected] (link sends e-mail) until Nov. 30. Feedback is welcome through any of the provided submission methods and will be gathered throughout the initiative. I am going to send some “feedback.” I sure hope that I am not the only Hoosier who does. My feedback is made with the hope that NIFA and the rest of the users of words like “feedback” and “stakeholder” get a sense of how frustrating the bu- reaucratic and academic babble is to those of us are paying income taxes and property taxes to sup- port the babble factor. We need to value more the research that meets real needs. Rigorous bench science is Page 16

Specifically, Indiana secured ninth place with an Business tax climate average score of 5.9 in the Foundation’s index for fiscal years 2015 to 2018. But our average annual GDP growth (1.2%) was a middling 29th among the 50 states. New meets reality Jersey ranked last in business tax climate (its index value By MORTON MARCUS was 3.4), but the Garden State sat right behind Indiana in INDIANAPOLIS – Recently, the Northwest Indiana GDP growth in the 30th place. Economic Forum presented an introduction to its five-year We should be thinking about the actual effects strategic plan. Most folks will tell you the seven NWI coun- of our tax climate, not the imagined possibilities put for- ties — Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper, Pulaski and ward by business partisans. v Starke — have had some tough years. Some will say it’s been rough going since the mid- Marcus is an economist. His views can be followed 70s. But history and its residue on “Who gets what?” wherever podcasts are avail- was cast aside as the audience of able. Or reach him at [email protected] nearly 500 in Hobart was regaled with an impressive list of new investments made recently by re- locating and existing businesses. No mention was made of jobs Don’t expect much lost, ongoing pollution, or wage gains for existing jobs. Instead there was a flour- on alcohol reform ishing of optimism, a recognition By RICH JAMES of a turning point, and declaration MERRILLVILLE – It took several lifetimes for Indi- that now is the time to “Ignite the ana to approve the sale of carryout liquor on Sunday. That Region.” Only the pompoms and was just earlier this year, so don’t expect additional major the boys’ band with 76 trombones were missing during the changes to the state’s liquor laws finale, as business leaders rose to pledge funding for the anytime soon. next steps. The General Assembly’s Setting the stage for this pep rally was Indiana’s Alcohol Code Revision Commis- Secretary of Commerce, Jim Schellinger, who did a com- sion will present its recommenda- mendable job sounding the keynote. One fact he recited tions for changes on Sept. 28. caught my attention: Indiana ranked ninth in the nation But the early word is that nothing by the Tax Foundation in their 2018 State Business Tax drastic will be recommended. Climate Index. There is one hope, and that No neighboring state had a higher ranking. Michi- bright light is coming from Randall gan was 12th, Illinois 27th, Kentucky 33rd, Wisconsin Woodruff, one of the four Alcohol 38th, and Ohio 45th. If you want to know how the Tax and Tobacco commissioners ap- Foundation comes up with these rankings, look on-line for pointed by the governor. the 82-page report with its strong methodology section At issue is the alcohol permit system that is based written to protect the Foundation from embarrassment. on the population of each municipality. The quota system The idea of this index is that a high score trans- hurt Munster earlier this year when it attempted to receive lates to a high ranking by firms considering new or ex- three new permits for liquor consumption at Centennial panding facilities. The methodology section makes it Village restaurants. reasonably clear there is no uncontested, definitive proof Nope. Munster already had reached its quota of that relationship, but it is consistent with freshman eco- for the issuance of alcohol sale permits. nomic theory. And do you need more? Woodruff made all the sense in the world at the But does a relationship exist between a state’s most recent state task force meeting when he suggested ranking and its actual economic growth as measured by the state throw out the quota system. “It seems to me Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? From our primitive evalua- the evil is the quota system,” Woodruff said. “I don’t think tion the answer is no. it is necessary and I don’t think it works.” The Tax Foundation’s scores do not correlate with Woodruff said ending the quota system would the average annual percent change in GDP over a com- impact the 745 permits currently held in escrow by those parable period (Quarter 3 of 2014 through Quarter 1 of planning to start a business or those hoarding permits so 2018). Match up the Foundation’s rankings with the rank- they don’t face competition. He added that ending the ings of GDP growth over the same period of time and the quota system would allow the free market to dictate the results are too weak statistically to be taken seriously. Page 17 number of alcohol permits. What Indiana really needs to do is allow retailers But Woodruff’s plan faces stiff competition from other than package liquor stores to sell cold beer. people like Rep. Ben Smaltz, chairman of the House Public That’s likely not going to happen given the con- Policy Committee. Without providing any facts, Smaltz said servative nature of Indiana. Heck, it took 85 years for the it is undisputed that the outlet density of alcohol leads to state to decide it would be OK to allow the purchase of more drunken driving, increased sexual assault and other carryout liquor on Sunday. v societal ills. How do you fight that? The best that Munster and other towns who Rich James has been writing about politics and have used up their quotas can hope for is small adjust- government for almost 40 years. He is retired from ments to the quota system. That’s unfortunate. the Post-Tribune, a newspaper born in Gary.

tier of great cities depends on getting this right, for rea- White River is our sons of economic competitiveness, regional cooperation, and quality of life. When it comes to strategic thinking about the next great project natural environment, central Indiana is way behind the By JAY RUCKLESHAUS curve. American cities have entered a new era of competi- OXFORD, England – The White River flows tion for provision of public amenities, with nothing less between two unappealing banks. The first is neglect. We than their economies’ competitiveness at stake. don’t talk much about this largest waterway in Central Public spaces have become “economic develop- Indiana, which indulges in serpentine bends on its south- ment magnets,” notes Adrian Benepe, former commis- westerly flow through farmland sioner of New York City Parks. As he told the New York and suburb and city, in no hurry. Times, “there is a peacetime arms race as cities compete The river is not so much Indy’s with each other” to develop their natural resources. Jobs best-kept secret as it’s one we and investment follow parks. don’t even know we’re keeping. The roster of cities that have recently made seri- The second is contempt. ous, deliberative investments in their waterfronts includes The butt of countless jokes, the Pittsburgh, , Chicago, and Buffalo. These cities, White River is synonymous with our rivals, understand the importance of their rivers, and pollution, and for good reason: their investments in waterfront parks, retail, and hous- pesticides, industrial runoff, and ing reflect a commitment to strategic thinking about the sewage have long flowed into it. And then there was the fish kill of 1999, when millions of fish were killed by chemical discharge, their bloated bodies floating belly-up across 50 miles between Anderson and Indy. Not a great reputation. Thankfully, that is changing. An alliance among the City of Indianapolis, Visit Indy, and Ham- ilton County Tourism is spearheading a new effort called the White River Vision Plan. After holding com- munity hearings, the group hopes to release a master plan next summer that will “chart a course for how to sustainably develop the river in support of attracting residents and visitors alike,” Chris Gahl, Visit Indy’s senior VP, told me. In parallel, legislators have organized a White River Caucus in the General Assembly to consid- er river renewal. (And, per the Department of Natural Resources, the fish are back.) underpinnings of long-term growth. Indiana can ill afford We should celebrate these efforts, and we should not to develop our natural resources. push city and state leaders to think boldly about develop- Every year we leave our waterway idle is doubly ing the White River. It’s surely our most undervalued asset, detrimental: Our loss is another city’s gain. That’s why and it’s my wager that Indy’s chances of reaching the next every business recruitment and economic development Page 18 plan for central Indiana must include the White River. makes people feel. Another reason to think boldly about developing Just picture Hoosiers of all kinds communing with the White River stems from the question of regional coop- nature rather than their smartphones, as their sense of eration. wonder and fun grounds a heightened civic pride for our Over the past few years, state leaders have begun city. paying more attention to the merits of thinking regionally Talk of feelings may sound sentimental or whimsi- than at any time since, perhaps, Mayor Lugar’s Unigov cal for an urban planning project, but it’s precisely those scheme almost 40 years ago. One product is the Regional qualities that underlie something very serious, the ability Cities Initiative (RCI), which matches funding given for re- of public spaces to manifest civic ideals. We must remem- gionally-conceived development projects. Like Unigov, the ber the contribution public spaces make to what political RCI was motivated in part by a recognition that the best theorist Martha Nussbaum calls our “public emotion cul- community planning happens when all the players sit at ture.” The built environment structures the way we inter- the same table. Too often, the division of political authority act with fellow citizens, opening or foreclosing avenues of into little fiefdoms stifles cross-jurisdictional innovation. connection. As the Cultural Trail ably demonstrates, some- And the demand for regionalism will only grow, as times the only way to feel connected to different parts of the economic landscape rewards what urban experts Bruce the city is to actually knit them together. Katz and Jeremy Nowak call “collaborative governance net- Done right, a new riverfront with equality of works.” As their term suggests, Katz and Nowak encourage access can help cultivate a renewed respect for Indy’s us to broaden the scope of regional governance to include diversity and help soften divisions. formalized collaborations with civic and philanthropic How public spaces make us feel and relate to groups. our neighbors are key indicators in assessing cities, and The White River illustrates well both the chal- they’re a core reason to do something inspiring with the lenges and opportunities of this broad regionalism. Its White River. watershed is vast and the needs of its various populations What exactly that “something” is will depend, as diverse. The project must be sensitive to these differences. it should, on long-term planning and community engage- In practice, what we need is for every stake- ment. The principles I’ve proposed suggest a mixed ap- holder to be on board from the beginning. The fact that proach would be best – recreational, commercial, residen- the White River Vision Plan is a collaboration between tial. Indianapolis and Hamilton County is an excellent start. Overhauling our riverfront won’t be easy. We’ll And the momentum from this initiative can be likely need controversial zoning changes, intelligent devel- used to catalyze transformative regional cooperation on opment incentives, robust environmental safeguards, and other initiatives (e.g., mass transit). There’s something an unshakeable commitment to inclusivity. beautiful about using watershed rejuvenation as a tem- But we’ve been asleep at the helm for too long; plate for regional thinking: A confluence of ideas makes us now is the time. Let’s make the White River our next great all stronger. project. v Of course, few who encounter the White River of tomorrow will marvel at its shores as a paradigm of eco- Jay Ruckelshaus is a Rhodes Scholar from India- nomic development and innovative governance. The third napolis and a graduate student in politics at the reason to be visionary about the river stems from how it University of Oxford. Page 19

Mike Allen, Axios: If Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination istration’s trade plan. It that really what we want? Do we sinks, Democrats would turn the midterms into a referen- really want the President to tweet “Oh sorry, I was only dum not just on President Trump but also women’s rights, kidding on those tariffs, never mind, just buy our soybeans abortion and the future of the Supreme Court, and we’re all good” one day? This is not going to sources tell Axios CEO Jim VandeHei and me. In happen, in fact the President actually tweeted over what Republicans believe is an increasingly un- the weekend that, “We are under no pressure to likely scenario where Kavanaugh tanks ... Dems make a deal with China. They are under pressure to believe they can juice turnout — already hitting make a deal with us.” What will and is happening is record levels — by playing off the huge public that with this issue tied to the fall elections, China attention to the court, and Roe v. Wade in particular. They is going to stall and wait to see what happens in Novem- envision President Obama and Michelle Obama locking ber. It is important to keep in mind that the bad guy in this arms with the Clintons, the Bidens, and Democratic con- drama is China. China is the one stealing U.S. agricultural gressional leaders to crank up a presidential-election-sized and industrial technology, refusing to obey international campaign. They feel confident every rich liberal in America trading rules, and dumping surplus goods into the U.S. would help fund this effort. If Democrats downed Kava- market. Trade is much too important to agriculture to be naugh, the White House would be inclined to nominate used simply as a way to get votes.v someone at least as conservative, or even more vocally so — perhaps Judge of Chicago, a Catho- David Leonhardt, New York Times: No other lic conservative. v major democracy has lifetime appointments to its high- est court. Only the United States does, and it creates all kinds of problems. For one, our system often does not Gary Truitt, Hoosier Ag Today: I guess I should respect the will of the people. Rather than the Supreme be getting used to this since it keeps happening, but it still Court’s makeup being determined by elections over many really burns my buns when activist groups, political lead- years, it’s based on a combination of those elections ers, the media, and especially farm groups, use farmers to and the randomness of how long justices live. Jimmy advance their agendas. One of the first I remember was Carter was unable to make a single nomination to the Farm Aid, a movement that used the farm crisis of the 80s court because no justice died or retired during his four- to advance its socialistic and environmental agenda. Then year presidency. filled four seats during his came PETA and HSUS who used modern animal husbandry five-and-a-half years as president.“The policy future of practices as a springboard to advance their anti-meat the country,” Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise agenda. The organic industry used the use of chemical Institute has written, “depends as much on the actuarial crop protection products to increase their sales. Next there tables and the luck of the draw for presidents as it does is the anti-science, GMO-free crowd that has been lying to on the larger trends in politics and society.” This unfair- the public for decades and reaping financial rewards. Now ness born of randomness isn’t the only problem. Given the it is the anti-Trump, trade groups turn. When President deep partisan polarization in America, lifetime appoint- Trump first slapped sanctions on China there was a good ments have also turned confirmations into epic political deal of well justified concern about the impact this would battles. That’s why the Brett Kavanaugh process feels so have on the farm economy. Much of the rhetoric focused momentous. It’s why the Merrick Garland process — or the on how farmers would be financially impacted and on the lack of one — still enrages so many people. “It makes the long term market price outlook. As we have moved closer stakes too high,” the political scientist Lee Drutman wrote to the mid-term elections, the focus has metamorphosed this summer in Vox. “So here’s a simple idea to dial down into a campaign against the President. One of the main some of the destructive warfare of the Supreme Court con- contributors to this politicization of the trade debate is an firmation process: term limits for Supreme Court justices.” organization known as Americans for Free Trade. This is a It would take a constitutional amendment, but that’s O.K. well-funded and well-financed, “broad coalition of Ameri- The United States has already amended its Constitution can businesses, trade organizations, and workers united 27 times — or an average of about once every nine years. against tariffs” according to their web site. The listed We are overdue for at least one more amendment. The members of this group include many agricultural trade most appealing idea to me is staggered 18-year terms on groups, along with industry and service sector organiza- the court, with each four-year presidential term automati- tions, some of whom have been hurt by the illegal trade cally bringing two appointments. Such a system would engaged in by China, which prompted the tariffs. This be more consistent with democratic principles. It would group has spun off a number of ag related groups includ- have several ancillary benefits, too. Aging justices would ing Farmers for Free Trade and, most recently, Tariffs Hurt no longer hang on to their jobs past the point when they the Heartland. These groups are focused exclusively on should (which has been a real problem in the past). And tariffs and ignore the reason the tariffs were imposed and as Ornstein notes, highly qualified candidates in their late the outcome of the current negotiations. Backed by a large 50s and early 60s would be considered for the court. v PR agency, they are attempting to derail the Trump Admin- Page 20

were from abuse and 35 were ne- vices (Associated Press). Indiana’s NIPSCO to retire glect. Vehicles were involved in most funding announced Wednesday all coal-fired plants of the deaths attributed to neglect -- by the U.S. Department of Health 12 of the 35 cases. The most common and Human Services was among HAMMOND – NIPSCO has a ten- cause of death from abuse was head more than $1 billion awarded tative plan to retire its entire coal-fired trauma. Marion County had the most to all 50 states to combat opi- electricity generation fleet in the next fatalities at 14. oid abuse. Indiana is getting decade, with the majority of its coal-fired more than $18 million to finance generators to be retired in the next five FEMA’s Long several initiatives, including two years (Steele., NWI Times). The com- aimed at reducing drug overdose pany made the announcement Wednes- almost quit deaths and boosting access to day at the fourth of five public meetings WASHINGTON – With his FDA-approved medications for detailing the development of a new Inte- home state flooded and the death treating opioid abuse. Another $7 grated Resource Plan for the utility. “This toll rising, FEMA Administrator Wil- million administered through the creates a vision for the future that is bet- liam ‘Brock’ Long was on the verge Health Resources and Services ter for our customers, and it’s consistent of quitting this week. On Sunday, his Administration will go to 26 HRSA- with our goal to transition to bitter feud with Homeland funded community health centers, the best cost, cleanest elec- Security Secretary Kirstjen academic institutions and rural tric supply mix available while Nielsen seemed as though organizations to expand access maintaining reliability, diver- it would abate (Washington to integrated drug-treatment and sity and flexibility for technol- Post). The two agreed to mental health services. ogy and market changes,” a truce so that the Trump said NIPSCO President Violet administration’s response Rokita, Issa Sistovaris. Renewable sources of energy, to Hurricane Florence would not be including wind and solar, along with bat- blast Chinese further overshadowed by the deepen- tery storage, will likely replace its use of ing acrimony between them since the CHICAGO – The increas- coal, according to the company. NIPSCO disclosure of an internal investigation ingly bruising China-U.S. trade retired the two coal-fired generators at into Long’s use of government ve- fight briefly fractured the usual its Bailly Generating Station along Lake hicles to travel between Washington decorous calm of a high-profile Michigan earlier this year, as part of a and his home in North Carolina. Noth- forum on globalization (Wall Street plan to reduce its coal-fired generation ing would happen to Long in the near Journal). At a hastily arranged by half by 2023. That left five still in use. term, Nielsen assured him, according news conference during a World Four coal-fired units at the R.M. Schahfer to three senior government officials Economic Forum meeting in China Generating Station in Wheatfield will be familiar with the conversation. “Let’s on Wednesday, a pair of U.S. retired no later than 2023, and the one just get through the storm, she said. congressmen vigorously defended unit at the Michigan City Generating Sta- About 24 hours later, as Long’s plane President Trump’s policies and tion by 2028, if the plan is carried out. landed in North Carolina, he learned took issue with remarks made .The move to retire its 1,800 megawatts that the DHS Office of Inspector Gen- minutes before by China’s premier. of coal-fired generation “will significantly eral had referred his case to federal Todd Rokita and , both accelerate carbon reductions across the prosecutors for a possible criminal Republicans, sparred with report- NIPSCO footprint,” the company said in investigation. He felt devastated and ers and took up a key Trump announcing the plan. betrayed, according to the three gov- administration criticism—that ernment officials, who had knowledge China doesn’t protect foreign com- 59 abused children of Long’s reaction. ‘It was FEMA per- panies’ trade secrets—dismissing died in 2016 sonnel who convinced him not to quit,’ as empty words a promise made said one congressional aide briefed on by Premier Li Keqiang to improve WASHINGTON – The latest state the matter. intellectual-property protections. report on the number of children deter- “I’m not sure what the Chinese mined to have died because of abuse or State gets $25M adage is, but in the United States neglect details the deaths of 59 Hoosier we say talk is cheap and actions children killed in 2016 (Sheridan, WFYI). for opioid fight are what matter,” said Mr. Rokita, There were 77 children who died in who represents an Indiana dis- 2015. The report found children 3 years INDIANAPOLIS – The Trump trict. “If it’s wrong to steal, if it’s old and younger are at the highest risk administration has awarded Indiana wrong to cheat, then why would for abuse and neglect, which is consis- more than $25 million to fight the we accept it?” tent across the U.S. Of the 59 deaths, 24 opioid epidemic, largely by expanding access to treatment and recovery ser-