Universal Energy Access in Myanmar, Challenges and Opportunities
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Universal energy access in Myanmar, challenges and opportunities Daniel del Barrio Álvarez; Numata, M.; Yamaguchi, K.; Yoshikawa, H. Policy Alternatives Research Institute, The University of Tokyo Myanmar’s evolving political clude Chin, Kachin, Karenni, Karen, Mon, Alternatives for sustainable context Rakhine, Rohingya, and Shan. A long-time development in Myanmar Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, is armed conflict between central government At the Policy Alternatives Research Institu- the newest member of the club of world armed forces and minority groups have te, we “attempt to provide an alternate path democracies. Coming after long years of been continuing nearly since the independ- between academic research and the society a close military regime, the country and ence from the British Empire. Achieving the in which research is conducted”. The Universi- its steps towards consolidation of the new national reconciliation is currently one of the ty of Tokyo, as a whole, is actively committed regime are of interest internationally. With top priorities in the government’s agenda. to promote effective collaboration and to con- the size of France, the largest in continen- Adding to this one the humanitarian crisis in tribute to the future of humanity and the pla- tal Southeast Asia, and with a population of the Rakhine State. net, based on the University’s mission of ser- fifty million people; Myanmar is located at ving the global public as outlined in its Charter. the crossroads of China, India, and the rest Myanmar is experiencing a double trans- of Southeast Asia. Increasing its geostrategic formation politically from a military regime In particular, we have been focusing on the importance for regional and global affairs. to an open democracy and from a closed analysis of the synergies between energy economy to an open system. The change and sustainable development in Myanmar, The country counts with 135 different re- of government opened greater expecta- under the framework of the Sustainable De- cognized ethnic groups and it is adminis- tions for attracting international investment, velopment Goals (SDGs). We are also pro- tratively divided into 7 states, 7 regions, 1 particularly from Western countries. The tra- viding knowledge support in the develop- union territory, 5 self-administered zones, ditional support to Aung San Suu Kyi and ment of strategies to facilitate a traditional and 1 self-administrative division. Burme- the lifting of the economic sanctions by the vicious circle between energy and conflict se represents a 70% of the total popula- United States and the European Union were in Myanmar1,2,3, which has indeed attracted tion, whilst other large ethnic groups in- considered positive steps in that direction. the local interest4,5. 1 Yoshikawa, Anbimozhi (2018) Electricity Futures in the Greater Mekong Subregion: Towards Sustainability, Inclusive Development, and Conflict Resolution. http://www.eria.org/research/electricity-futures-in-the-greater-mekong-subregion-towards-sustainability-inclusive-development-and- conflict-resolution/ 2 Del Barrio-Alvarez, D.; Sugiyama, M. (2018) Toward a sustainable electricity policy in Myanmar: Recommendations for policy makers and development partners. Policy Alternatives Research Institute - PARI Policy Brief. http://pari.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ eng/publications/index_policy_briefs.html 3 See UTokyo Future Society Initiative https://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/adm/fsi/en/sdgs_project067.html 4 Global New Light Volume V, Number 121, 17 Friday, August 2018. http://www.moi.gov.mm/npe/nlm/?q=content/17-aug-18 5 Myanmar Times, June 18. Article in press (in Burmese) Cuadernos de Energía 65 Universal energy access in Myanmar, challenges and opportunities The two main goals of the power sector in Figure 1. Electricity production in Myanmar (GWh) Myanmar, secure stable supply in connected areas and expand the electricity service to ru- ral areas, have traditionally been perceived 18.000 as mutually exclusive, due to a perverse cycle 16.000 explained in a next section. Contrary to that 14.000 belief, our analyses show that appropriate 12.000 energy policies and the national reconcilia- 10.000 tion process have positive spillovers to each 8.000 other. 6.000 4.000 In this article, we first provide a quick over- 2.000 view of the energy system in Myanmar, 0 with a special focus on electricity. This is 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 followed by an explanation of the impor- Coal Oil Gas Hydro tance of energy as a pivotal instrument to contribute to the peace development in Source: International Energy Agency data the country. Energy is to play a pivotal role in the tran- Myanmar does have signed the Paris Agree- Energy to legitimize sition9, and the changes occurring need ment and has committed in its Intended the political transition to be understood as a part of an overall Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) The achievement of nation-wide peace bet- process. The country is facing a lack of to continue as a net GHG sink by 203010. ween the government of Myanmar and the enough and adequate electricity supply. The devastating effect of the cyclone Nargis multitude of ethnic armed groups is a key Less than half of the population have ac- in 2008, which followed an unusual path is priority for the consolidation, and a hope, of cess to electricity, with very low levels of representative of Myanmar’s vulnerability to the democratic transition. A national recon- electrification in the peripheral areas of the climate change. This killed 140,000 people ciliation process was initiated with the 21st country. Meanwhile, urban centers suffer in 2008, making of it one the deadliest in Century Panglong Conference, with a strong from a lack of enough stable power supply, Asia11. The large number of victims and cau- reference to the Panglong Conference held especially during the dry seasons, when salities was partly due to its path across the in 1947 under the leadership of Aung San dams are at their lower levels. lowest part of the Irrawaddy Delta, the most (father of Aung San Suu Kyi and a natio- populated area of the country. The country is nal hero in Myanmar)6. National Ceasefire The promotion of sustainable development regularly hit by floods during the monsoon Agreements have been signed with several, is also a key priority for the country. Myan- season. Last August, a breach in a spillover in but not all, the ethnic armed groups in the mar is highly vulnerable to climate change a dam created severed floods and inundated country7,8. The negotiations are still on and effects. The rapid deforestation, third-worst nearly 100 villages and forced evacuation of cover a broad number of aspects. in the world, reduces its natural protection. about 150,000 people12. 6 Weiss (2017) Did Aung San Lead at Panglong – or Follow? .The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2017/07/did-aung-san-lead-at-panglong-or-follow/ 7 Reuters (2018, January 24) Myanmar to sign ceasefire with two rebel groups amid decades of conflict. https://www.reuters.com/article/us- myanmar-military/myanmar-to-sign-ceasefire-with-two-rebel-groups-amid-decades-of-conflict-idUSKBN1FD0HH?il=0 8 See Myanmar Peace Monitor. http://www.mmpeacemonitor.org/peace-process/ceasefires 9 Posner Ross, R. (2015). Myanmar’s Path to Electrification: The Role of Distributed Energy Systems. Washington D.C. Retrieved from https://www. csis.org/analysis/myanmars-path-electrification 10 http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs24/Myanmars-INDC.pdf 11 Gottlieb (2018) 10 years after, Cyclone Nargis still holds lessons for Myanmar. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/10-years-afte¡ cyclone-nargis-still-holds-lessons-for-myanmar-95039 12 The Guardian (2018, August 29) Myanmar dam breach forces thousands to evacuate their homes. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ aug/29/myanmar-dam-breach-people-evacuate-homes-officials-say 66 Cuadernos de Energía Universal energy access in Myanmar, challenges and opportunities ty consumption per capita (see Figure 2). Figure 2. Electricity consumption per capita in Myanmar (kWh/capita) Nevertheless, this remains the lowest level of electricity consumption per capita when compared with other Southeast Asian coun- tries (see Figure 3). 300 250 Access to electricity is at world-low levels. Although different figures exist about that, 200 there is a basic agreement that at least half of the population lack access to modern elec- 150 tricity. Furthermore, the majority of the rural population electrified relays either on diesel 100 generators, which are economically and en- 50 vironmentally costly or from solar home sys- tems, which do not provide enough power 0 for productive uses (Table 1). 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Development partners’ Source: International Energy Agency data re-engagement with Myanmar in the power sector Figure 3. Electricity consumption in selected ASEAN countries (kWh/capita, 2015) The democratic transition brought new opportunities from the lifting of economic 5.000 4.660 sanctions and a rapid and powerful re-en- 4.500 gagement of development partners. Table 4.000 2 summarizes some of the most relevant 3.500 programs being carried out by development 3.000 2.620 2.500 partners. The three major policy documents 2.000 prepared have been so far the Energy Master 1.530 1.500 Plan with support from the Asian Develop- 820 1.000 740 ment Bank (ADB)14, the National Electrifica- 250 330 500 tion Plan (NEP)15 by the World Bank, and the 0 National Electricity Master Plan (NEMP) by Myanmar Cambodia Philippines Indonesia Viet Nam Thailand Malaysia the Japan International Cooperation Agen- 16 Source: International Energy Agency data cy (JICA) . A brief overview of the three of them is provided below. (Table 2). Energy in Myanmar gas. Hydropower constitutes between 60 and 70%, whilst natural gas makes about The ADB initiated its re-engagement in Myanmar’s electricity production was near the remaining 30%.