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The Impact of Natural Gas Geopolitics in World Gas Sustainable Markets: Opportunities for Iran's Developing Gas Industries

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The Impact of Natural Gas Geopolitics in World Gas Sustainable Markets: Opportunities for Iran's Developing Gas Industries THE IMPACT OF NATURAL GAS GEOPOLITICS IN WORLD GAS SUSTAINABLE MARKETS: OPPORTUNITIES FOR IRAN'S DEVELOPING GAS INDUSTRIES Gholamreza Bahmannia 1 , Naser Abgoon 2 1. National Iranian Gas Company - SPGC 2. National Iranian Gas Company Keywords: 1. Geopolitics; 2. Natural Gas; 3. Developing Market; 4. Iran; 5. Outlook. 1. Introduction: How the world energy map is changing? Structural evolutions of global economics and energy sectors, new and sustainable secure energy supply resources, and energy demand growth in long-term horizons, environmental issues in developing countries and rapid demand growth of petrochemical industries, all cause the natural gas situation as fuel of choice in new century. Asian South-east region countries (Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan) already are the biggest natural gas consumers and analysts predicts growing demand of LNG for this region on next 20 years. In geo-economics terms, the biggest impact will come from increasing demand for oil and natural gas from developing countries, which may outpace the development of new sources of supply, thereby putting pressure on prices. In geopolitical terms, the consequences of such an imbalance will be magnified by the fact that demand is rising most strongly in China, India, and other large emerging economies. By most estimates, global consumption of natural gas - a cleaner-burning alternative to coal and oil - will double by 2030. However, in North America, Europe, China, and South and East Asia, which are the areas of highest-expected demand, the projected consumption of gas is expected to far outstrip indigenous supplies. Delivering gas from the world's major reserves to the future demand centers will require a major expansion of inter-regional, cross-border gas transport infrastructures. Yes, the world energy map is changing. Projected energy demand will come increasingly from developing and emerging economies, as will supply. The global energy future is also distinguished by an increasing concentration of energy suppliers and demand centers, which are geographically farther apart; requiring increased investment, longer transport routes, and raising security and environmental concerns. The emergence of new market players, new alliances, and evolving rules further complicates the global energy picture. Russia 25.1 % 40% Middle East Iran 15.8% Qatar 14.4 % UAE 3.4 % S. Arabia 4.1 % Fig. 1 – Middle East in Global Geopolitics of Natural Gas Natural gas will turn into one of the world's main energy source in only less than two decades. Due to increasing global energy consumption, it could be expected for countries that are somehow enriched with such scarce resources and capable of having the necessary technology in upstream and downstream industries, to play a significant role in the future economy of the world. Natural gas still maintains the fastest consumption growth rate among the world's primary energy sources and has the highest consumption growth rate among the developing countries. Based upon "International Energy Prospect" scenario, the global natural gas consumption during years 2001-2025 will experience an average growth rate of 2.9-3.2 % per year which is comparable to annual growth rate of 1.8% for oil and 1.5% for coal. Based on supply-demand models, Declining indigenous gas production in some regions will lead to a growing supply-demand gap, In fact industrial countries (especially North America & west Europe) which are also the largest natural gas consumers will loose their key roles in the global natural gas supply on next two decades. 2. Middle East as New Energy Hub!? Middle East countries with considerable increase in gas production and due to their economical, political and geopolitical situations could be the best players in the future demand-supply scenarios. In 2008, based on BP statistics, approximately 40% of the world’s total gas reserves were located in the Middle East. Bahrain, Oman, and Syria have limited gas reserves compared with others in the region and due to increasing domestic demand; they are expected to import significant gas volumes in the future.(Fig.1) World Gas Reserves (2008) Middle East Gas Reserves (2008) UAE 8.2% Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia Iraq 4.1% 3.4% 9.9% 4.3% Kuwait Qatar Others 2.4% 14.4% 37.2% Qatar Others Iran 34.6% 2.6% 15.8% Iran 38.0% Russia 25.1% Fig. 2 – Middle East Gas Reserves in 2008 Several nations in the Middle East are geographically situated to become swing suppliers that could interconnect regional gas markets into a global system of gas trading. The rise of this role has been delayed, partly, by the large fixed costs for the new infrastructure that will be needed to carry their gas to the lucrative European and Asian markets. (In contrast, the existing Russian export infrastructure to Europe is already in place and is able to carry additional gas at a small marginal cost.) As global gas demand rises, these new supplies from the Middle East will become an important hub for flexibility in global markets. In an attempt to dominate this future opportunity, Qatar (and to a lesser degree, Iran) is making massive investments in LNG. Interestingly, Qatar’s rise was contemplated and could have happened even a decade earlier if not for the distraction of political controversies with its neighbors and concern by major LNG users (notably Japan) about the risks of relying on gas tankers that had to traverse the strategically waters of the Persian Gulf. Prolific Turkmen gas may also be slow to come to market due to political and economic barriers in moving that gas across rival Russia. 2000 2007 Total: 360 mmtoe Total: 525 mmtoe Others Others 1% 1% Oil Oil 53% 57% Gas 42% Gas 46% 2015 2020 Total: 865 mmtoe Total: 1,040 mmtoe Others Others 1% 1% Oil Oil 48% 47% Gas Gas 51% 52% Fig. 3 Growing Natural Gas Role in World Energy Demand through 2000-2020 Based on FACTS Global Energy forecast, Middle East marketed gas production and gas consumption will grow through 2000 to 2020 in all countries. But Iranian gap between these two important indexes is very low, meaning that an Iran opportunity for being an exporter is less than others. In other term, both production and consumption have grown rapidly over the past 20 years. According to FACTS Global Energy, Iran’s natural gas exports will be minimal due to rising domestic demand even with future expansion and production from the massive new projects. The UAE has become a net gas importer since late 2007 by virtue of its rocketing gas demand for power generation (imports from the Dolphin Project).( Fig.4 & Fig.5) 90 80 Others Iraq Kuwait Oman 70 UAE Qatar Saudi Arabia Iran 60 50 40 bscf/d 30 20 10 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 Fig. 4 – Middle East Marketed Gas Production 2000 to 2020 70 Others Bahrain Kuwait 60 Qatar UAE Saudi Arabia Iran 50 40 bscf/d 30 20 10 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 Fig. 5 – Natural Gas Consumption Trend Forecast for Middle East According to EIA forecast: • It is expected that total gas exports from the Middle East region will increase from 6.7 bscf/d in 2007 to 14.0 bscf/d in 2010 and 25.0 bscf/d in 2020. • Qatar is expected to play the main role in Middle East gas exports from 2009-2020 • Iran is expected to have much smaller export volumes (20-36 mtpa of LNG and small volumes of pipeline gas) but Iran’s LNG exports are unlikely to materialize before 2015. • Yemen will start LNG exports in 2009. • Iraq has serious prospects for LNG exports from associated gas. Also potential for pipeline exports (depending on its political stability). Middle East Gas Exports* (2007-2020) 30 Iraq Yemen Oman 25 Iran UAE Qatar 20 15 bscf/d 10 5 0 2007 2010 2012 2015 2020 Fig. 6 – Middle East Gas Export 3. Iran's natural gas facts and outlooks According to Oil and Gas Journal , Iran’s 2008 estimated proven natural gas reserves stand at 948 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), second only to Russia. Roughly two-thirds of Iranian natural gas reserves are located in non-associated fields, and have not been developed. Major natural gas fields include: South and North Pars, Tabnak, and Kangan-Nar. In 2007, Iran produced and consumed an estimated 3.9 Tcf of natural gas. Natural gas consumption is expected to grow around 7 percent annually for the next decade. Both production and consumption have grown rapidly over the past 20 years, and natural gas is often used for re-injection into mature oilfields in Iran. According to FACTS Global Energy, Iran’s natural gas exports will be minimal due to rising domestic demand even with future expansion and production from the massive South Pars project. In 2007, roughly 70 percent of Iranian natural gas was marketed production, while approximately 30 percent was for enhanced oil recovery gas re-injection, and 285 million cubic feet was lost due to flaring. As with the oil industry, natural gas prices in Iran are heavily subsidized by the government. 4. Iran's gas developing industries and key projects, 2009-2020 4A. Natural Gas Plants: • Gas treating plant expansion (Maymak) 3 MMCM/DAY will be expanded to 6 MMCM/Day (Completed but not in service now - 2010) • New gas treating plant (Bid Boland 2) 57 MMCM/DAY (Under construction and will completed next 3 years - 2013) • South Pars 5 New Phases with 125 MMCM/DAY that will completed through next 7 years. • Gas treating plant expansion (Sh. Hashemi Nejad) 12 MMCM/DAY 4B. Pipelines : Developments in the Iranian Gas Trunkline (IGAT) pipeline series, all fed by South Pars development phases, are important to Iran’s natural gas transport.
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