National Security Project Meeting the Challenge: Stopping the Clock Bipartisan Policy Center Report on U.S. Policy toward Iranian Nuclear Development Senator Charles S. Robb and General (ret.) Charles Wald, Co-Chairs February 2012 ACKN OWLED GMENTS We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of several outside experts. Stuart Levey provided valuable commentary and insight. Robert Kagan helped shape the report by asking pointed questions and offering thoughtful comments. We are indebted to Michael Rubin for his extensive edits and comments in the drafting of the report. We also want to acknowledge Gregory S. Jones of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center for his analysis of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. An array of former government and military officials from the United States and other countries also contributed comments and suggestions, but cannot be acknowledged by name either because of their current positions or because they requested anonymity. Finally, we thank BPC interns for their contributions: David BurtonPerry, Christopher Hellie, Jennifer Nath, and Jennifer Zhu. D ISCL AIMER This report is the product of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s National Security Project (NSP). The findings and recommendations expressed herein are solely those of NSP and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Bipartisan Policy Center, its founders or its board of directors. Meeting the Challenge: Stopping the Clock 1 National Security Project TASK FORCE CO-CHAIRS Senator Charles Robb General (ret.) Charles Wald Former Governor of and Former Deputy Commander of U.S. U.S. Senator from Virginia European Command; Bipartisan Policy Center Board Member TASK FORCE MEMBERS The Honorable Christopher Carney John Hannah Stephen Rademaker Former U.S. Representative from Former Assistant for National Security Former Assistant Secretary of State for Pennsylvania Affairs to the Vice President Arms Control and Nonproliferation Ambassador Eric Edelman Ed Husain The Honorable John Tanner Former Under Secretary Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Former U.S. Representative of Defense for Policy Studies, Council on Foreign Relations from Tennessee Secretary Dan Glickman Admiral (ret.) Gregory Johnson Mortimer Zuckerman Senior Fellow, Bipartisan Policy Former Commander of U.S. Naval CEO and Chairman of the Board of Center; Former Chairman, U.S. Forces, Europe; Senior Adviser, Directors, Boston Properties, Inc. House Permanent Select Bipartisan Policy Center Committee on Intelligence General (ret.) Ron Keys Larry Goldstein Former Commander, Air Combat Founder of Energy Policy Research Command; Senior Adviser, Foundation, Inc. Bipartisan Policy Center NATIONAL SECURITY PROJECT STAFF Dr. Michael Makovsky Jonathan Ruhe Director, National Security Project Senior Policy Analyst Blaise Misztal Marissa McCauley Associate Director, Administrative Assistant National Security Project National Security Project Meeting the Challenge: Stopping the Clock 3 Foreword This is the Bipartisan Policy Center’s (BPC’s) fourth report on the most immediate national security challenge facing our nation: Iran’s continued progress towards nuclear weapons capability. Despite perceived setbacks, including the Stuxnet cyber attack and the bite of increased sanctions, the danger of a nuclear Iran has not diminished. Yet, for much of this past year there was a dearth of serious public discussion about the Iranian threat, its proximity and viable policy options for confronting it. While many other events dominated discussion about the Middle East, the relative silence about Iran is a matter of real concern. It is important, especially at a time when many Americans and government officials are wary of intense global engagements after years of war and the pressing economic situation, that our nation understand the dangers it faces, the choices it must confront and the consequences of inaction. In this report we examine Iran’s rapid nuclear progress and its implications for U.S. economic and strategic interests, explain why containment will not work, and propose ways for the United States to prevent a nuclear Iran. After deliberations with a new, expanded task force, we have arrived at a bipartisan, fact-driven consensus that largely echoes our past reports: the best chance for successfully meeting the Iranian nuclear challenge is a robust and comprehensive triple-track strategy, involving the simultaneous pursuit of diplomacy; sanctions; and visible, credible preparations for a military option. This strategy is consistent with President Obama’s February 2009 pledge at Camp Lejeune “to use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.” However, given the increasing chance that Israel might launch a preemptive military strike, we also address how the United States might achieve the best possible outcome under that scenario. Cognizant of the fiscal challenges facing our nation and the burdens of war, we do not make these recommendations lightly. Looking to history, however, we are confident that Americans can rise to the challenge. This is not the first time we have faced down vital strategic threats, despite war-weariness and economic challenges. Now, as in the 1930s, we must be conscious of the long-term costs in blood and treasure of the actions we take today. If we are, the choice is clear. Sincerely, Senator Charles S. Robb General (ret.) Charles Wald National Security Project Meeting the Challenge: Stopping the Clock 5 Table of Contents Executive Summary .....................7 Chapter 3: Recommendations .............59 Adopt a Declaratory Policy .....................59 Chapter 1: Recent Developments ..........19 Undertake Military Readiness Activities ...........60 Iran’s Nuclear Program Advances ................19 Augment U.S. Fifth Fleet Presence in the Region .........60 Enrichment Activities ..............................20 Conduct Broad Exercises with Allies in the Persian Gulf ....61 Nuclear Weapons Capability ........................24 Intensify Enhancement of Persian Gulf Transformations in the Middle East ...............29 Allies’ Military Capabilities ..........................61 Preposition Supplies ..............................62 Iranian Politics .............................30 Initiate “Strategic Partnership” with Azerbaijan ..........63 Political Repression and Human Rights Violations ........30 Limit Iran’s Negative Effects on Global Energy Market .....64 Divisions Within the Regime ........................31 If All Else Fails ...................................67 Iranian Aggression ...........................31 Augment Credibility of Israeli Threat ..............70 Iraq ...........................................32 Afghanistan and Pakistan ..........................33 Endnotes .............................72 Support for Terrorism, Opposition to Peace .............33 WikiLeaks .................................35 Maps and Figures Diplomacy Fails .............................36 Figure 1: Iran’s LEU Stockpile and Enrichment Rate ......19 Sanctions .................................36 Figure 2: Enrichment Rate vs. Operational Centrifuges at Natanz FEP ................20 Existing Sanctions ................................36 Figure 3: Iran Oil, Gas and Nuclear Installations .........22 Effect on Iran ...................................39 Figure 4: Three Components of a Nuclear Device ........24 New Sanctions ..................................40 Figure 5: Growth of Iranian Potential Effect on Iran ............................44 3.5% Enriched Uranium Stockpile ....................26 Figure 6: Batch Recycling Process ...................27 Chapter 2: It’s Different this Time ..........47 Figure 7: Projected Growth of 19.75% Stockpile .........27 Failed Analogies ............................47 Figure 8: Two-Step Batch Recycling ..................28 Containment ....................................47 Figure 9: Three-Step Batch Recycling .................28 North Korea ....................................52 Figure 10: Israel: Rocket and Missile Threats ............34 Dangers of a Nuclear Iran ......................56 Figure 11: U.S. Sanctions Against Iran ................37 An Emboldened Iran ..............................56 Figure 12: Iran Gasoline Sector ......................39 Proliferation Cascade .............................57 Figure 13: Iran Crude Oil Export to China ...............43 Imminent Conflict ................................57 Figure 14: Iran Crude Oil Export .....................44 Figure 15: Military Balance .........................53 Figure 16: Iran Missile Ranges ......................55 Figure 17: Prepositioning Military Supplies .............63 Figure 18: Middle East Oil and Gas Installations ..........65 Figure 19: Israel Strike Ranges ......................68 National Security Project GEORGIA RUSSIA KAZAK. UZBEKISTAN Nuclear sites Refineries ARMENIA Oil tanker terminals Oil Fields AZERBAIJAN TURKEY Gas fields Oil pipeline AZERB. CASPIAN SEA Gas pipeline Population TURKMENISTAN Greater than 7,000,000 Tabrìz 1,500,00–2,500,000 1,000,000–1,500,000 Bandar-e-Anzali 500,000–1,000,000 Rasht Other cities Neka Karaj Mashhad LashkarAb’ad Tehran Qom Kermanshah Arak Baghdad Natanz IRAQ Esfahan AFGHANISTAN Ahvaz Abadan Khawr al Amaya (Iraqi terminal ) Anarak Al Basrah KUWAIT (Iraqi terminal) Khark I. Shiraz Bushehr Zahedan PAKISTAN SAUDI ARABIA Bandar-e-Taheri South Pars Assaluyeh Gas Field Bandar Abbas Strait of Lavan I. Hormuz BAHRAIN N Sirri I. OMAN QATAR 0 100 200 mi 0 100 200 300 km Gulf of Oman UNITED ARAB