1-2/08 INDIGENOUS AFFAIRS CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIGENOUS PEOPLES CLIMATE IWGIA Indigenous Affairs 1-2/08 1 contents editorial 4 international CLIMATE CHANGE FROM AN INDIGENOUS PERSPECTIVE: KEY ISSUES AND CHALLENGES Christina Nilsson 8 THE UNITED NATIONS PERMANENT FORUM ON INDIGENOUS ISSUES DISCUSSES CLIMATE CHANGE Lola Garcia-Alix 16 MANY STRONG VOICES CLIMATE CHANGE AND EQUITY IN THE ARCTIC AND SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES John Crump 24 africa THE THREAT POSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE TO PASTORALISTS IN AFRICA Joseph Ole Simel 34 arctic CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE WARMING POLITICS OF AUTONOMY IN GREENLAND Mark Nuttall 44 asia MITIGATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: SOLUTIONS OR ADDITIONAL THREATS? Minnie Degawan 52 Cover: Emission of greenhouse gases; one of the main causes of climate change - Photo: POLFOTO/Vadim Ghirda 2 Indigenous Affairs 1-2/08 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN NEPAL HIMALAYA Kirat Kamal Sampang Rai 60 latin america THE MAPUCHE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CHILEAN NEOLIBERAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM Rosamel Millaman Reinao 66 pacific CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PACIFIC: A MATTER OF SURVIVAL Sonia Smallacombe 72 Indigenous Affairs is published 4 times per year ISSN 1024-3283 INTERNATIONAL WORK GROUP FOR INDIGENOUS AFFAIRS International secretariat Editors of this issue: Mark Nuttall and Christina Nilsson Classensgade 11 E, DK-2100 Proof reading: Elaine Bolton Copenhagen, Denmark Price: Single copies US$ 7.50 + postage Phone.: (+45) 35 27 05 00 Please note that the views in this journal are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect Fax: (+45) 35 27 05 07 those of the Work Group. 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Although the latest IPCC reports were EDITORIAL EDITORIAL unequivocal in their attribution of the causes of current climate change to anthropogenic activity, the language of science is still careful to use a lexicon of probability and projected likelihood when scientists talk about fu- Mark Nuttall ture climate change impacts. From a scientist’s point of view, this is perhaps understandable. Scientific method ecent key regional and global scientific assess- continues to revolve around conjectures and refuta- Rments (most notably, the Arctic Council’s Arc- tions, but climate change science is characterised by tic Climate Impact Assessment, the Intergovern- uncertainty in the models it develops to come up with mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth As- projections of the future state of ecosystems under con- sessment, and the national Canadian assessment of ditions of profound change in decadal and longer time climate change) confirm that the Earth’s climate is scales. No matter how sophisticated or complex these changing in ways that may have irreversible im- models are, climate change science and the large as- pacts that will affect ecosystems, societies and sessments that synthesise research findings can only economies on scales that require urgent global ac- offer ‘most likely’ scenarios and possible storylines for tion. While climate change science still has its crit- the future, in which climate change ‘could have’ or ics who seek to undermine its findings and dimin- ‘may have’ certain effects. The Arctic Climate Impact ish the seriousness of climate effects, there is in- Assessment, for example, struggled with the challeng- creasing evidence – from both science and indige- es in projecting responses of Arctic ecosystems to cli- nous and local observations – that climate change is mate change because of the limited understanding of already having ecological, social, cultural and eco- how Arctic and global climate systems are coupled to, nomic impacts in high northern latitudes, but also and influence, physical and biophysical processes.2 in high altitude mountainous terrain, desert re- Climate models become even less effective when gions, tropical areas, and near sea-level coastlines they attempt to assess and represent the complexity of around the world. The climate of the Arctic, in par- everyday social, cultural, political and economic life ticular, has shown an unprecedented rate of change for purposes of probabalistic analysis. There may be over the last fifty years. We no longer see regional widespread consensus that climate change has anthro- changes in climate in isolation, but understand pogenic causes, yet how the world and its climate are them as interrelated processes affecting geographi- transformed by human action remains a critical area of cally distant ecosystems, societies, cultures and research. Policy and decision-making processes de- economies. The reduction of multi-year ice cover in pend on a ‘sound scientific basis’ for their success in the Arctic Ocean, as well as glacial retreat from the terms of consensual understanding of how to take ac- Greenland inland ice and other major Arctic ice tion on climate change. The unreliability of models masses, will have immediate regional implications provides a way to question the legitimacy of science. with an eventual global reach. As Clift and Plumb The uncertainty of climate change science, together argue in their recent book The Asian Monsoon, the with the unreliability of models for representing social continued melting of Greenland’s vast ice sheet and and ecological interactions remain an obstacle to mov- the cooling of the North Atlantic could result in ing forward and addressing environmental dilemmas. drought in central Asia, and in rising sea levels and There is perhaps at least one thing that is certain about increased risks of severe flooding in coastal south scientific uncertainty concerning the effects of climate and southeast Asia.1 change – it affects the policy and decision-making proc- ess, and in a recent paper Stainforth et al. argue for a reassessment of the role of climate models for use in Climate change science, uncertainty and policy the development of policy and societal decision-mak- ing.3 Current and projected levels of exposure to climate-re- Despite the uncertainty inherent in climate change lated sensitivities, as well as limits and restrictions to science, as many indigenous peoples around the world adaptive capacity, mean that some environments and can already argue and testify to, climate change is not peoples are more exposed to climate change than oth- something that may or may not happen in the future – ers and, as a result of their social, political, and eco- it is already a reality. Wherever they live, and whatever nomic circumstances and situations, they are signifi- the diversity of ecosystems they inhabit, they are wit- cantly more vulnerable to its impacts and long-term ness to local manifestations of a global phenomenon. 4 Indigenous Indigenous Affairs Affairs 1/2/08 1-2/08 Inuit communities in the Arctic are among the first to experience the effects of climate change, Greenland - Photo: Jens Dahl The uncertainty that characterises much scientific Climate change is a complex interplay of physical knowledge about climate change and its effects is part- processes, environmental, historical, social and eco- ly explained because of the large-scales at which scien- nomic factors. Its effects are highly variable and re- tists gather their data. Indigenous peoples feel the ef- gionally specific and will be significant for people and fects of climate change in the way the weather is expe- for local and regional economies in many different rienced, and their observations and knowledge of ways. For indigenous peoples around the world, cli- climate effects in specific geographical localities are of mate change brings different kinds of risks, brings critical importance for scientific analysis and decision- threats to cultural survival and undermines indige- making. Indigenous knowledge, combined with in- nous human rights. But climate change also magnifies digenous peoples’ experiences of the environment, the issues of pressing contemporary concern that al- may also prove to be better placed to deal with uncer- ready affect indigenous peoples despite its occur- tainty. Yet indigenous peoples remain marginalised in rence. Whatever the diverse effects, the consequences many scientific assessments and public policy proc- of ecosystem changes have implications for the use, esses, and the impacts of this are less a focus than the protection and management of wildlife, fisheries, for- impacts of climate change. However, their exclusion ests, and pasture lands, affecting the customary uses has far-reaching implications too. Fortunately, this of culturally and economically important species and situation is being rectified in some parts of the world, resources. Furthermore, the World Health Organiza- most notably in the circumpolar North, where discus- tion considers the effects of climate change as one of sions at the level of the intergovernmental Arctic the greatest public health challenges for the 21st cen- Council include indigenous perspectives on climate tury, and this is reinforced by the IPCC’s stark warn- change monitoring and adaptation. The Arctic Cli- ing that deteriorating social and economic circum- mate Impact Assessment was notable in this regard stances brought on by climate change could have sig- for the way it attempted to incorporate indigenous nificant effects on human health. Nonetheless, indig- knowledge with the pure science.