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Ethiopia in 2005: the Beginning of a Transition?

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Ethiopia in 2005: the Beginning of a Transition? Number 25 January 2006 Ethiopia in 2005: The Beginning of a Transition? Terrence Lyons George Mason University Introduction in suspense, with policymakers seemingly uncertain Ethiopia is undergoing a volatile process of transition whether continued support of the incumbent regime is after a dizzying series of squandered opportunities and the best option to maintain regional stability or whether bad-faith strategies by the major contending parties. The intensified pressures and new multilateral strategies are May 2005 national elections offered a glimpse into what needed to manage the potentially violent transitions a peaceful, multiparty, competitive, political future might ahead. look like. But subsequent polarizing accusations, ♦ ♦ ♦ intransigence, violent demonstrations, boycotts, and The May 15, 2005, elections presented the Ethiopian criminalization of dissent recalled instead the upheavals people with a remarkable opportunity to express their of earlier transitions in 1991–1992 and even 1974–1977. political views by participating in a poll that, for the first The situation in January 2006 is both unstable and time in history, offered them a meaningful choice. In dangerous. contrast to earlier elections in 1995 and 2000, opposition Beyond conflicting characterizations of the elections and parties did not boycott the polls but instead competed assignments of blame, by November 2005, a dangerous vigorously across the country. Opposition party mistrust new context began to emerge. The main opposition of the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), coalition had been shattered and its principal leaders reports of intimidation and violence, and highly imprisoned; civil society leaders and the independent polarizing rhetoric raised concerns during the pre- press had been harassed and intimidated into silence; and election period but did not deter opposition parties from the incumbent regime found it necessary to use massive campaigning in nearly every constituency. Live televised levels of military force against civilians, and to arrest debates on matters of public policy, opposition party thousands upon thousands of youths in neighborhood access to state-owned media, and huge, peaceful rallies sweeps to keep order in the capital’s streets. In in the final week of campaigning made it clear that these December, 131 opposition politicians (including 10 elections would represent a decisive moment in elected members of parliament), journalists, and civil Ethiopia’s political development. The Ethiopian people society leaders were charged with crimes that included seized this opportunity with great hope and turned out in treason and even genocide. This tense standoff is most overwhelming numbers to express their choice. likely to move into a situation of further retrenchment by Controversies relating to the counting process, the incumbent regime and increased resort to violent subsequent allegations of fraud, and post-electoral repression. violence, however, threaten to return Ethiopia to the Concurrent with this escalating internal crisis, the more repressive politics of the past. Both the ruling stalemated peace process along Ethiopia’s border with Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front Eritrea threatened to erupt into significant warfare, with (EPRDF) and the opposition claimed victory in the days the United Nations scrambling to save its peace immediately after the poll as official results trickled in observation mission and reports of war preparations and partisans from all sides circulated contradictory multiplying. U.S. policy toward Ethiopia today remains claims. In this edgy and anxious environment, rumors 2 and allegations of fraud circulated feverishly, and along with journalists and civil society leaders. On apprehension grew as many Ethiopians became November 9 the government announced that these convinced that the election results were being leaders would be charged with treason (a capital offense). manipulated. The opening for a more open and democratic Ethiopia that seemed possible during the spring ended with key On June 6, police arrested thousands of students opposition leaders in prison and the most critical voices protesting at Addis Ababa University, stormed a in civil society silent. technical college near Mexico Square the following day, and most shockingly, engaged in running street battles The 2005 Elections with rock-throwing demonstrators in the Merkato area on The May 15, 2005, elections were the third set of June 8. The June 8 violence included military forces national elections under the 1994 constitution. Earlier firing heavy machine guns indiscriminately into large elections in 1995 and 2000 were marked by government crowds, killing at least 36 and wounding more than 100. harassment of opposition parties and a boycott of the The government was unapologetic over the violence and polls by the most influential opposition organizations. blamed opposition political parties for creating the The EPRDF won both earlier elections with over 90 trouble. percent of the seats. Most observers agreed that these This immediate crisis ended with the signing of a pact elections were well administered but did not offer most between the opposition and government, negotiated by voters a meaningful choice because of restrictions on the the Ambassadors’ Donors Group. This agreement set up opposition and boycotts. Complaints Investigation Panels, which held hearings In the lead-up to 2005, the EPRDF indicated that it and recommended re-votes in parts of 31 contested wanted to run an election that was perceived as free and constituencies, eventually held on August 21. The NEBE fair by the international community and that included finally announced official results on September 5. greater participation by opposition parties within According to these figures (see table 1), which were Ethiopia. The government agreed in October 2004 to disputed and rejected by the opposition, the EPRDF won meet some of the demands put forward by leading 327 seats, allied parties a further 40 seats (for a total of opposition groups, notably allowing international 367 seats or 67 percent), and the opposition took 172 election observers and ensuring opposition access to seats (31 percent)—with 109 going to the Coalition for state-run media. Although the opposition’s more Unity and Democracy (CUD), 52 going to the United structural demands that the NEBE should be reorganized Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF), and 11 to the and that the electoral system be changed to a proportional Oromo Federal Democratic Movement (OFDM). representation system were not accepted, the main Despite increasing its share of seats in the parliament opposition coalitions decided to participate rather than from 12 to 172, the opposition refused to accept this boycott. For the first time in Ethiopia’s history a outcome, claiming it had irrefutable evidence that it had nationwide multiparty competition seemed possible. defeated the incumbent regime and that massive fraud Neither the ruling party nor the opposition had ever faced had taken place. International observers from the a competitive election before. European Union and the Carter Center also noted The EPRDF went through a period of turmoil in 2001, as problems with the count and with intimidation of the the Central Committee of the Tigray People’s Liberation opposition, although they stopped short of accepting the Front (TPLF)—Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s core opposition’s claim that it had won the election. When the support base—erupted into two rival factions. With his new parliament met on October 11, some opposition base in the Tigray heartland at risk, Meles took leaders took their seats, but others, particularly leading advantage of his central position within the broader members of the CUD, refused. The government stripped EPRDF coalition to outmaneuver his rivals, sack a those who boycotted of their parliamentary immunity, number of senior officials, and successfully weather the and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi suggested that CUD storm. It was this reformed EPRDF party that chairman Hailu Shawel and others had been engaging in participated in the 2005 election, although, despite “treason.” apparent unity, questions about the depth of Meles’ Violence erupted again in the first week of November, support and the fault lines of 2001 remained open. with a further 48 people killed (including several Two main opposition coalitions competed against the policemen) and the arrests of most of the CUD leadership EPRDF. One, the CUD, included leaders from the All 3 Ethiopia Unity Party (such as former All Amhara On May 8 the opposition’s campaign climaxed when an People’s Organization leader Hailu Shawel), Rainbow estimated 1 million Ethiopians rallied in Meskel Square Ethiopia (led by Berhanu Nega), and the United in the heart of Addis Ababa in a massive and peaceful Ethiopian Democratic Party (led by Lidetu Ayalew). The political rally. Beyene Petros toured the Southern region other main opposition coalition was the UEDF, which in the week before the election, speaking from the back included several exile groups as well as the Oromo of a truck in provincial towns and small villages that had National Congress (ONC, led by Merera Gudina) and the never seen an opposition campaign event. Across the Southern Coalition (led by Beyene Petros). A third main regions, most Ethiopians saw more political debate opposition party was the OFDM (led by Bulcha and multiple candidates actively and peacefully soliciting
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